agricultural R&Dinvestments,asitwaswithth GFSwaspositivelyassociatedwith cropping inseveraldevelopedeconomies.However, marginal landswithlowproductivityandalso yield concomitant improvements inGFSscoresi as asurrogateforoverallindustrialisation.Recent issignificant.However,GFS hadastro correlated withGFSscores,except incountries showed nosignificantcorrelationwith GFSscores.Similarlyagricultural -usewaspoorly despitebeingthepr RESULTS: Wefoundthat forattainingenduringGFS. opportunities agricultural researchand develo agricultural andindustrialwater-use, between GFSandasetofsupplyordemandfactor which policiestendtofocus.Toexploreothe or demandfactorsoftensuggestpopulationandwa ofGlobalF BACKGROUND: Analysesofsensitivity Abstract 2

Accepted ArticleCentre forCropandDiseaseManagement,DepartmentofEnvironmentAgriculture,Curtin Analysis ofthenexusbetweenpopulation, highlights significance of governance and research investments and policy priorities highlights significanceofgovernanceand research investmentsandpolicy Running title: Running title: Running title: G Running title:

article as doi: 10.1002/ differencesbetween version lead to this may been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination andproofreading process, which This article hasbeen accepted for publication andundergone full peer review but has not This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Governance andresearchinvestments Isa A.M.Yunusa 1 overnance andresearch investmentsasprioritiesforfoodsecurity Ecoseal DevelopmentsPtyLtd,Lindfield,Australia *Corresponding Author:[email protected] jsfa.9126 pment [R&D]),andcorruptionperceptionindex(CPI),toreveal University, Perth,Australia 1* , AyalsewZerihun r policy options, wecharacterisedthenexus r policyoptions, imary driver of demand for , population imary driverofdemandforfood,population barely compensatedforlandsretiredfrom barely e CPIscores.Theapparentandrelativestrengths whereevaporation exceedsprecipitation and ng positiveassociationwithindustrialwater-use nce such expansions have beenmostly into nce suchexpansionshave

water resourcesandGlobalFoodSecurity publications(asasurrogateforinvestmentin ood Security(GFS)scoretoakeysetofsupply expansionsincultivatedlandareafailedto s includingdefiningpopulation, ter supplyasbeingthemostcriticalandon

and the Versionof Record. Please cite this 2 , MarkR.Gibberd critical driversoffoodsecurity

2

emphasised Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012; FAO, 2009; Snoeck etal.,2000) 2009;Snoeck Alexandratos andBruinsma,2012;FAO, This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. optimal foodsecurityis heteroge of thedevelopingworld. However,asitonlyrefl beconsideredasthe primedriver Population can Acceptedour time.”(Clinton,2012). over onebillionhungrypeopleintheworld...”(F used byworldleadersandinstitutionstohighlig meet thefood needsfortheprojecte security attainment ofaglobalfood (Population Institute,undated).Populationis hasincreasedby14%from6.4 population that nutritious foodforallthepeoples.Demand the fromboth GFS isunderconstantstress (http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4671e/y4671e05. maintainahealthyandactivelife” sufficient, safe,andnutritiousfoodto ArticleWorld FoodSummitheldinRome1996as“W lagsdemand.TheGl where supplyoffoodoften Feeding thegrowingglobalpopulationremainsa 1. Introduction development, waterallocation Key words mechanisms thatpromoteaccountabilityinbo (1)increasedR&Dinvestments should prioritise CONCLUSIONS: Weconcludedbysuggestingthat publication rate of thesedriversonGFSoutcomeamongst countri : agriculture,foodsecurity,governance, by anexpertpanelthatarguedfor60–70% ≈ corruption perception>>agricult neous amongandwithin countries( (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012), and wasfurther(Alexandratos andBruinsma,2012), d globalpopulationof9.1billion demand andsupplysidesofaffordable commonly identifiedastheprimarythreatto th researchandproductionvaluechains. to 7.3 billion inthedecadeending2014 7.3billion to food isgenerallydrivenbyrisingglobal ht threats to GFS, with statements such as “... ht threatstoGFS,withstatements obal FoodSecurity(GFS)wasdefinedatThe ects partofthebalance, thedistributionofsub- that address farmer needs, and (2) governance that addressfarmerneeds,and(2)governance hen allpeopleattimeshaveaccess to AO, 2009),and“Foodsecurityistheissueof major challenge in many parts of the world, major challengeinmanypartsofthe to enshrineenduringfoodsecurity,policies es wereintheorder:industrial water-use on thedemandsideofGFSespeciallyinmuch industrialisation, population,researchand ural water-use>population. htm#TopOfPage). Attainment of enduring increaseinfoodpr . Population . Population Alexandratos, 2005 (Alexandratos, 2005; (Alexandratos, oduction by 2050 to oduction by2050to per se isthuswidely ). ≈

This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. in rainfalland evaporationpatterns duetoclimat will(http://www.foodsecure.eu/). Itssignificance Food SecurityCentre (http://aciar.g astheAustralianInternational of GFSbyseveralnationalandinternationalinstitutions, such Acceptedlimited andconsideredasthese Such expansion isonlypossibleifqualitywatersupplyassured, butfresh watersupplyis expansion ofcultivatedland sustainably provideenoughfoodandfibreso Compen 2000). cultivated globally(Soto-Pintoetal., foodcrops, of totalharvested other uses,mostlyforbiofuels.Cropsusedbi inmeetingfoodcropproductionisbeingstra cultivation intonewlandsdependonaccesstowa resourcebase.Maintaining access tonatural The supplysideofGFSisdrivenbyproduction consistent acrossnations. Articlecorrelation betweenGFSscoresandpopulation demand forprotein-richdietwouldeclipsepopul Hertel income countries.Indeed,Baldosand strongly inlowincomecountries,whileprotein-ri economic developmentamongstcountries.Availa ofthenewanddifferentsignalsforGFSthatreflectdifferencesin Thisisapart et al.,2000). produce, oftenattheexpenseofgrainproducti emergent economies increasinglyprefer protein- and changingdietarypreferencesthatcouldpr There arehoweverotherpopulation-linkedfactor Vermeulenetal., al., 1992; countries withlargepopulations,havesignificantlyreduced Furthermore, recenteconomicandtechnologica 2012) andmaythereforeweakenlinkbetweenpopulationGFS. by 60–70%someestimates equivalent to cropping 350,000 km equivalent tocropping350,000 cond most critical constraint, after population, on attainment cond mostcriticalconstraint,afterpopulation,on attainment ov.au/aifsc/) andtheFood Secure (2014) arguedthatthehighincomedriven current productionlevelsandexpansionof lely fordirecthumanconsumptionrequires and availabilityoffoodcropsthusrequires ofoundly impactGFS.Themiddleclass inthe on for direct human consumptions (Soto-Pinto on fordirecthumanconsumptions(Soto-Pinto is likelytobetenuousandunlikely is l developments,includingseveraldeveloping ofuels areestimatedtoaccountforabout2.5% richdietsthatrequiregreaterresourcesto ation asthemaindriv e change(Gregoryetal ch food is the mainfactorinmedium–high ch foodisthe s such as the interactionbetweenpopulation s suchasthe become evenmoreacute withprojected shits bility/affordability ofstarchfoodfeatures ined further bythediversion offoodcropsto ter. Thecapacityofthecurrentcultivated sating forthisdiversionofgrainsinorderto (Alexandratos andBruinsma, 2012). hunger 2 ofthetotalagriculturalland as weknowit(Njorogeet er ofGFS.Thus,any ., 2005).Theseadverse

This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. source andanalyses 2.1 Data,data Accepted2. Methodology management ofnaturalresourcesfortheattainme drivers ofGFS,and(3)identifyopportunitiesfo availability of waterresources andpopulation,(2)analysethe impactofotherselected key to(1 security.Ouraims are food outlook in We focusonthoseregionsoftheworldwherethere are concerns overtheircurrent and future development, investment inagriculturalR&D,a paper, weused theGFSscoreanditscomponen analysis toquantifytherelativestrengths of Hanjra andQureshi,2010)rarely GFSareoftenconsid sidesof Factors onboth under asystemofresponsiveandaccountablegovernance. interest and prioritiesoftheirnationalagricult Articleunderpinned withappropriatestrategiesand for decades(Alstonetal.,2006) that havemadesignificantinvestmentsinagricu gains arecommonlytheproductsofresearch Practices andtechnologiesthatdriveefficiency practices, islikelytobemoreimportantthan Management ofthecurrentwaterresources,alon pace. agricultural productivitydoesnotkeep that economicgrowthnotwithstanding,global insecure populations (VermeulenandCotu live grain cropssuchasmaize,riceandwheat,especi climatic impacts arealreadybeingmanifestedin . Toachievethe desiredoutcomes aremajorityofthekeyfactorsconsideredtogetherinan ) characteriseassociations betweenGFSand their associationswithGFSoutcomes.Inthis their merequantitativeavailabilityofresources. ered separately(e.g. implementation practicesthataddressthe and development(R&D)investments.Countries hungerandmalnutritionwilldeteriorate if ural sector.Thisisrela la, 2010).BaldosandHertel(2014)concluded la, r productivitygainsfromthedevelopmentand nd governance,toanalysetheirimpactsonGFS. in resourceuseandtheresultingproductivity t parameters, along with indicesofeconomic t parameters,alongwith ltural R&D continue to reap productivitygains ltural R&Dcontinuetoreap the declinesofyieldandnutritionalqualities ally inthetropics,wheremajority ofthefood g withtheefficacyof thecropproduction nt offoodsecurityinvulnerable countries. , R&Dinvestmentshavetobe Vermeulen etal.,2012; tively easilyachieved This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. 2.1.3 Publicationandgovernance data for individualcountries.Data20 Acceptedallocation (e.g.,agricultural,industrialordome of theUnitedNations(http://faostat.fao.org/def water resourcesandusewereallobtainedfrom (http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ forthevariouscountries wereobtainedfrom Population figures 2.1.2 Populationandsectoral water allocation or bottom-upperspective/analysis. scores aresequentially/hierarchically aggregat have relevantdataavailable.Eachoftheseth Theindicesareusedto of100. out ofamaximum safety) offood.Thesethreecriteria areweighted namely:availabili FoodSummit, 1996 FAOWorld Articleindices ofcountriesaredetermin indices areavailableat for the2014inmostofanalys the GFSbyEIUstartedin2012andhasbeen created bythe EconomistIntelligenceUnit(EIU securitydatawereob The food 2.1.1 Foodsecurityscores (population), governanceandtheirimpactontheGFSanalysed. supply factors(waterresources, cultivatedla explained inthefollowingsections.Thesedataas published for2014wereusedinmostcases,exce ondataproducedandpublished This studyrelies http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Country tained fromthedatabaseofGlobalFoodSecurityIndex ed basedonscoresofthreebroadcriteria agreed uponatthe is, except where statedotherwise. 14 wereusedforbothvariables. nd area,researchinvestment),demandfactor ree criteria hasmultiple ed, or disaggregated, dependingonatop-down ed, ordisaggregated, stic use)andchangesinagriculturallandareas , www.eiu.com). Derivation and compilation of , www.eiu.com).Derivationandcompilation updatedannuallysince. Here,weusedindices the FoodandAgricultural Organisation(FAO) ault.aspx). Thesedataincludesectoralwater ty, affordabilityandutilisation(quality (2.5:2.75:1, respectively) andscored (2.5:2.75:1, points usedinouranalyseswerecategorisedinto rank food securityscores rankfood forcountriesthat otherwise,andare pt forpublicationorstated by variousinternationalorganisations.Data population-by-country/). Dataonglobal population-by-country/). . Briefly,the overallfoodsecurity Worldometers Fulldetailsonderivationof sub-categories, whose This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. 3.1.1 Population Accepted3.1 DemanddriversofGlobalFoodSecurity GFS. explored further,byanalysingtheircontributio as indicatedbythesizeofcorrelationcoeffi research investment)andonthedemand-side(po supply- Analyses revealthatthefactorson 3.0 ResultsandDiscussion various factorswasexaminedviacorrelationanalyses. withthe ofGFS countries, whichhadalltherelevantdataconsideredinthisstudy.Association dataharmonisat Thus, thefirststepinvolved ArticleThe datafromthedifferentsourcesdidnotha 2.2.4 Dataanalysis zero (highperception)and100 of qualitylifeforthoselivingincountri measures howcorruptthepublicsectorisperceive (http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/over published bytheTransparencyInternational The governanceofacountrywasassessedba surrogate forlevelofinvestmentinagricultural papers publishedfromtherespectivecountries “agriculture” inthesubjectfield,and countrynameintheauthoraffiliationfieldtoidentify Publication dataonagriculturalscienceswere (minimal perception)points. [insert Figure1nearhere] ion. Thisgenerateda sed on Corruption PerceptionIndex(CPI) sed onCorruption ve coverageofthesamenumbercountries. ve obtained fromISIWebofSciencedatabase,using side (waterresources,cultivatedlandarea, n eitheronthedemandorsupplysideof researchanddevelopmen between1950and2010.Thesewereusedasa cients (Figure1).Eachofthesefactors willbe es. Thesecountriesareawarded pointsbetween view). Theindexispublishedannuallyand pulation) impacttheGFStodifferentdegrees d tobeandportraythedailyrealityinterms dataset containing102 t duringthatperiod. This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. world, andbymorethan 3.5-fo a mere3%and 2004was in theindustrialised energyintake from70% of cereals.Thuswhile transition’ fromstarchydietstoanimalproducts transformation andexpansion,productpr (2006) attributedthisshiftindietaryhabit aunitamount of requirement forproducing ashaving adverse livestock productsisviewed shift towards sideoftheGFS.Thedietary Undated), whichweusedintheanalysisofsupply mirrors thetrendsinpercapitaincome and include itdirectlyinouranalysis,thegenera and dairyproductsinemergingeconomies in An importantcomponentofthedemandside agriculture, localise issuesoffoodand that unrest inrecent years. Theseareconsistentwith countries, e.g.,Zambia,Tajikistan,andSenegal,wh large part,withcivilunrest.Thisis,however, countries, e.g.,theDemocraticRe Leone andTajikistanhaveFSscorebelow40. between them; whilemanycountrieswithpopulat India, thetwomostpopulouscountriesofover thepopulationspectr the lowandhighendsof of countriesgenerally.Thedatashowthatthere major componentonthedemandsideoffoodsecu countries (Figure2).Thisresultrefutestheco shows noapparentassociationbetweenpopulat oftenconsideredtheprimedr Population is Accepted Article Snoecketal.,2000;Godfray al.2010 Bruinsma, 2012;FAO,2009;

the “populationexplosion”beingwitnessedin ld inChina;during thesame public ofCongo(DRC),BurundiandSudanareassociated,in and thus not of global consequence. andthusnotofglobal to acombinationofurbanisation,economic iver onthedemandsideofGFS(e.g., l trendintheconsumptionofanimalproducts in industrialisationofnationstates(WHO, calorie (Ausubel,2013; ThelowFSscoresfo not thecasewithmajorityoflowpopulation mmon notionthatpopulationsize,whichisthe Asia and Eastern Europe. Although we didnot Asia andEasternEurope.Althoughwe countries, itwas76%across thedeveloping theincreaseinmeatconsumption between1984 omotion thathavefacilitated ‘nutrition um. For instance, countriessuchasChinaand um. Forinstance, impact on GFS by its disproportionate impact onGFSbyitsdisproportionate 1.2 billion each, haveFSscoreofabout50-65 1.2 billioneach, , prior to which these countries obtained upto thesecountriesobtained , priortowhich GFS istheongoingshifttowardsproteinaceous ion sizeandfoodsecurityscoresamongst are manycountrieswithhighFSscoresatboth an earlierobservationby ions oflessthan10millionsuchasSierra low-incomefoodinsecurecountrieswould ich havenotexperiencedanysignificant civil rity, negatively impacts status rity, negativelyimpactsfoodsecurity period, wheatproduction, asa ), butanalysisatglobalscale r some low population r somelowpopulation Kearney,2010).Elam Alexandrators(2005) Alexandratos & This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. example,in 2010; VanAstenetal.,2011). For expense oflocalfoodcrops. This feedstock forbiofuelsandanimalfeed,orcashcrops forexport,inadditiontotimber,atthe Acceptedconsumption. Theyareoftendevelopedbylarge because thenewfarmlandsareunlikelytobe between FSscoreswithexpansionincultivat (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZS cropping landsinsomecountrieshavemore/l about 38%ofthegloballandmassandareconsiste turn ofthecentury(2000).Theyshowthatcult land. DatapresentedinFigure3showchanges The totalavailabilityofarablelands hasnot ofarablelands 3.2.1 Availability 3.2 Supplydriversofglobalfoodsecurity in supplypartoftheequation. Articlewith starchyproducts(Davisetal.,2016)unders productsisalre Ecological footprintforanimal will risefromthecurrent67%(~370Mt)to instance, thecombinedproportionofannualma diversion ofgrainstobiofuelswillfurtherinte meet theglobaldemandby205 cater fortheprojectedincreasesinmeatpro thecurrent5.1billionha,tomaintaincu 5.9%, from Wirseniusetal.(2010)estimatedthatby2030th 2006). surrogate forcereals,rose byamere1%inde 0 (Elam,2006).Thesetrendsindietarychangesalongwith has createdthe newphenomenonof has [insert Figure2nearhere] over 77%(~490Mt)by kept pacewithdemandforexpandingcropping ed land area amongst nations. This may be ed landareaamongstnations.This duction of almost 90% over the 2015 figures to duction ofalmost90%overthe2015figures usedtocultivatefoodcropsforlocal nsify pressureon thesupply sideofGFS.For ess cancelledoutongoingreductionsinothers veloped, and 6% in developing, countries (Elam, veloped, and6%indeveloping,countries the tropics and subtropics, expansionsin the tropicsandsubtropics, ady larger by up to a factor of four compared offourcompared ady largerbyuptoafactor coring thesignificanceof managingresources ize productiondivertedtothetwoend-uses international commercialentitiestoproduce agricultural landareain2012relativetothe e globalcultivatedareaneedstoincreaseby nt withrecentreports thatexpansionsof ivated landareahasbeengenerallystaticat rrent levelofcalorieintake.Thisistoalso ). There isamostlynegativerelationship ). There 2030 (OECD-FAO,2017). land grab (Borras etal., This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Conversion offarmlands toconservationinUSA (Cio identified as contractionoffarmedlandinPoland amajorcontributor to the between 2000and2011(DSEWPaC, (~ 100Mha) forinstance,theareadevoted fo 3). InAustralia, Acceptedthat arereturnedtonatureconservation purpo mostly theresultofpeelbackfarmingfrom GFS scores.Inindustrialisedcountriesmeanwhile therefore, ithasnotbeenmatchedwithincreases In themajorityofcountriesthathaveexpe that canquicklynullifyanynewlyacqui the newfarmlandsbytheirecologicalfragility cropping inAustraliaexpandingintodrierenviro as PapuaNewGuinea,EthiopiaandColumbia. fragile iswidespread.Thisespecial arable inmanycountries(Table1),suggest Articleenvironments (Mwendia etal.,2016).Indeed,totalareaofcultivated landgenerally exceeds expansioninsm In manypartsofEastAfrica, increasinglyintofragileandmarg of croppingis managed farmlandsthatareunderthreatofdegrad Meanwhile, cultivationoffoodcropsforhuman or grazinglands(Walmsleyetal.,2016). primarily forlogging,whileonlyabout25%ofne onla of newJatrophaplantingsin2011were Africa andsugarcane inSouthAmerica (Gaoetal (UGA), andusedtocultivatecropsforbiofuelssu farmlands haveoftenbeenintohighrainfallfo [insert Figure3nearhere] [insert Table1nearhere] red intrinsic gainsinproduction. all scale dairy production has beenintodrier all scaledairyproductionhas nd clearedofpre-existingnativevegetation are pronetoerosionandgeneraldegradation rest ecosystemsinIndonesia(IDN)andUganda fragile marginal farmlands withlowproductivity rienced expansioninland A similarphenomenonisbeingobservedwith ly so in countries withmontanelandscapessuch ly soincountries inal landsthathavelowproductivitypotential. se withoutmeasurablepenaltyFSscores (Figure consumptionremainsconfined topoorly was alsousedhistorical nments (TFarrell,pers.comm).Ineithercase, r conservationhasincreasedbymorethan50% w Jatrophafarmswereonpreviouslycropped ing thatfarmingofmarginalandecologically ., 2011). A recent globalstudyfoundthat40% ., 2011).Arecent ch asoilpalminSoutheastAsia,Jatropha , contractionsincultivatedlandareaare 2011). Increased afforestationwasalso 2011). Increased in the production of local foodcropstoraise in theproductionoflocal ation withtheresultthatfurtherexpansion ly toreduceproduction clearance forfarming, ł kosz, 2011). This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. (Figure 4).Inthesecountries, foodsecurityis “independence” offood securityfrom agricu pattern identifies countries(sym Accepted security.Thefirst patterns intheintrinsicimpactofagriculturalwater-use onglobalfood evapotranspiration forthecountries considered( agricultural water-usewhen wefactored into production andhenceGFS. Thisisclearlyreve obviate theimport doesnottotally This however, allocation difficult. domestic andindustrialusersenvironmentalneedsmakesfurtherincreases inirrigation (Godfray etal.,2010).Moreov agriculture, whichalreadyaccountsforabout70% food securitycanbefurtherenhancedbyin (Figure 4,bluedashtrend line/spline).Thisis water-used inagricultureappearedtohavelim and GFSscoresamongstnations.Thus,whenco Articleobservation offreshwater-usewouldfailtofind Water isthemostcriticalofalllandresource 3.2.2 Waterresource:availabilityand useinagriculture in agricultureandsomeofthesew Such gainswereunderpinnedbyadvancesintec driven mostlybytheproductivitygainsinth required toproduceagivenamountofcropisat hasbeenestimatedthattheglobalamountofland systems.It intensification offarming developed anddevelopingeconomiesarepr FSoutcomes productivity. Thesecontrasting contraction inagriculturallands,thesecountries ofsurplusgrain storage and hencecostof er, increasingcompetitionforlimitedfreshwatersupplyby bolized by solid blue squares) that show apparent statistical bolized bysolidbluesquares)thatshow ill beconsideredfurtherlaterhere. stock (McDonald, 2016). Despite experiencing Despite stock (McDonald,2016). creasing allocationofwaterresourcesto e industrialised countries (Ausubel et al., 2013). countries(Ausubeletal.,2013). e industrialised edicated on technology that underpins edicated ontechnologythat ltural water-use;theseall have FS score s underpinningagriculture.However,acasual from changesin cultivatedareabetween theanalysis ratioofprecipitationto contrary toexpectation and commonwisdomthat insensitive tothequantum ofwaterinputinto aled bytherelationship betweenFSscore and ited contribution to food securityoutcomes ited contributiontofood nsidered across all countries, thequantumof nsidered acrossallcountries, a significantlinkbetween maintainedhighFSscorethroughcrop hnology bothinmaterialsandprocessesused least 30% less today than itwas50yearsago, least30%lesstodaythan Figure 4).Thisapproachrevealsthreedistinct ance ofwaterasaresourceinagricultural of total freshwater-use inmostcountries oftotalfreshwater-use its useforagriculture ≥ 75% This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. into cropproductivity.Deriving highproduc security, suggestsother factors mustbeexerting The unexpectedlyweak impact ofagriculturalwa Accepted3.2.3 Waterresourceavailability andindustrialisation countries (Figure4,redtrendline). dependence offoodsecurityonagricultural Thus, onceprecipitation-evapotranspiration vegetables) maycontribute totheob demand. Theseasonalityandtheproductionmix(highvaluecropssuchasfruit the strongseasonalityincroppingbeingmo security score, butdoso(Figure4,redtrendlin poin are notexpectedtoliewithinthecloudof parity betweensupplyanddemandorthesuppl The patternshowedagroupofcountriesthat water resourcestoagriculture. Articleunique andisbecausepaddyricedominatesagricu inthisgroup,where of JapanandSouthKorea underpins highfoodproductiona allocation toagriculture( water, i.e.precipitation iswellbelowevapor agricultural water-use.These Israel, Greece,MexicoandSaudiArabia,whereFS The secondpatternrevealed agroupofcountries supply exceedsthedemand. demand (evapotranspiration) andsupply(precipi agricultural production.Thesecountriesareloca ≥ 300m countries havesubstantialimba 3 nd, hence,highFSscores(Figur /year percapita agriculturalwater)arises/year fromirrigationthat [insert Figure4nearhere] served anomalyinthese countries. tivity fromwaterinputrequires efficient water-use willemergeforamajorityofthe ation. Therefore,therelatively high-water balance is taken into account a positive balance istakenintoaccountapositive includes Brazil,USandChile,whichhaveeither despite precipitationexceedingevaporation, is ts relatingagriculturalwatersupplyandfood ts e). This“anomaly”maybe partlytheresultof stly confined to periods of low evaporative stly confinedtoperiodsoflowevaporative y exceedsdemand.Normally,these countries ted athighlatitudes,whereatmosphericwater stronginfluenceonconverting waterinput tation) areeithercloselymatchedorthe ter allocation onfoodavailabilityand food (red triangles)thatincludesAustralia,Spain, scores arehighandpositivelycorrelatedwith lture andhencethehigh(>90%)allocationof lance intheirsupply-demandfor e 4,redtrendline).Inclusion This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. requires substantialinvestments inR&D.Efficien subsequent adoption.Sustainingandfurther Acceptedtechnologies aregenerallytheproductsof and (47.8) (65.6), Nigeria(39.4),Pakistan consistent withFSscoresachievedthesecountries half thatinAustralia.Thesedifferences inth countries. Consequently,theon-farmnetwater av water duringconveyanceandon-farmwereminima agriculture inthesemi-aridenvironmentsofAu et decisions.Khan implementation ofmanagement with differencesinefficiencyofdelivery andut by nearly afactoroftwothaninNigeria(1.38t/ instance, the meanyields forcoarsegrainsinre data onproductivityofgraincrops(www.fas.us agricultural systemsthantheyareinlesstec ArticleCrop yields(productionperunitlandarea)are from globalmarketorboth capacity (economic,technologicalandskills)to because countrieswithhighlevelofeconom to reflectthegeneralindustrialand/oreconomic food securityofnationsshows (extension, inputsupplies,machinery,financialserv (e.g. tillage,seedtechnology, cropprotection use assurrogatefortechnologica and deploymentofappropriatetechnologies.This management ofthepreciouswaterresources, to achievehighGFSscore. strong dependenceonpercapita strong l development in crop production systemsbothonthefarm incropproduction l development [insert Figure5nearhere] South Africa(62.9).Efficientpracticesand researchanddevelopment(R&D)their e managementtechnologi hnologically advanced countries. Using the USDA hnologically advancedcountries.Usingthe ic developmenthaveacorrespondinglyhigh improving uponcurrentproductivitygains andagronomy)insupportingservices along with other inputs,throughdevelopment along withother ilisation ofinputresources aswelltimely as suchgenerallyhigherinindustrialised access foodeitherthrough localproductionor stralia, ChinaandPakistan,foundthatlossesof da.gov/data/grain-world-markets-and-trade) for cent years arelarger in SouthAfrica(3.75t/ha) ha). Thisdisparityinyieldscanbeassociated development of the various countries. Thisis developmentofthevariouscountries. cy gainssuchastheseare reassuringandgoa canbeevaluatedbytakingindustrialwater- presented inTable1:Australia(82.6),China ailability inChinaandPakistanwaslessthan al.(2006)intheircomparisonofirrigated , marketing,etc.). Itisunsurprisingthat l inAustraliacomparedtotheothertwo industrial water-use(Figure5) es andoutcomeswere (Alston etal.,2009). This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. developed economies,where rapi development playsignificantrolesinenhancing Acceptedinvestment inthisspheretounderwritethefood undersco relationship withpublicationoutput scores thantheirtechnologicallymoreadvanced sustainability. ChinaandIndiainthesecond investments addressissuesbeyondproductivi technological advancedcountrieseachpublis aspriority.Thetopfour focus onproductivity these predominantly middle-income countries(b period,additionalpapersupto over the60-year output (Figure 6).TheGFSbenefitsofpublication atthetopbinhas publication output,while with thefirstoneconsistingonlyofYemen GFS scoresidentifies16bins(discrete verticallin Article long-term.Astrongposi agricultural R&Doverthe Using thepercapitapublicationsforsevera as acredible reflectionoftheeffective mana data onthemonetaryvalue ofR&Dinvestments. on publicationsinrefereedjournals aremorere through thequantumofitsoutputs,primarilypublic research anddevelopment(R&D)totheattainment economic developmentofacount Investments inagriculturalresearchandde 3.2.4 Research,developmentandinnovation which canbefurtherdimmedwithde long wayinreducingthe overallenvironmental bur d productivitygainshave been ry, anddirectlyimpactitsFS that hadthelowestGFSscoreandleast velopment closely reflect technological and l decadesshouldmeas gement oftheresourcesallocatedsector. hing over800papersandwhereresearch velopments intechnologyandtechniques. ty to include issues of environmental ty toincludeissuesofenvironmental res theimportanceofcontinuedeffective (13 –16)binsconsistofpredominantlyrichand USA asalonemember and themostoutput adily accessibleformajorityofcountriesthan both the volume andqualityofproduction in both thevolume e-up of data points distributed alongthex-axis) e-up ofdatapointsdistributed 800 yieldedespeciallystrongGFSbenefitsin third bins,respectively,havemuchlowerGFS securityoffuturegenerations.Researchand Publicationdataprovideanaddedadvantage ins 8to12)andwhereresearchinvestments countries intheirrespectivegroups.ThisGFS becameparticularlya tive impactofscientificpublicationoutputon den of food production(Davisetal.,2016), den offood ofGFSidealscanbeeffectivelycaptured ations inrefereedscientificjournals. Data score. The contribution of the score. Thecontributionofthe recorded inrecentyears ure thebenefitsof pparent from70papers that account for over 60% of the total global that accountforover60%ofthetotal comparable globaldata.Investmentinagricu significant pricedifferential forsimilargood etal.(2016)thereforeusedpurchasingpowerparitytoaccountforthe of inputs.Pardey Undertaking internationalcomparisons ofR&Dexpendi This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. (http://www.agriculture.gov.au production ofwintercereals,be Accepted of increasing thetotalcroppedareaby13.5%,and possiblycontributedtothedoubling losseswerepartly compensatedforby These 2017). failures, andwasinadditionto this centurytermed declines inthe yieldlargely duetotheprolongeddroughtduringmuchof thefirstdecade of years inthesecountries (Table1).Theexception wasAustralia,where there were slight cereal yields byover50%inthepastdecade,al investor insub-SaharaAfrica.Thesegrowths account for90%ofthegrowthinagriculturalR&D investment,whileNigeriaisthedominant In the variousregions(Beintemaetal.,2012). later yearsin2000–2008,whentheseinvestments agricultural R&Dhasincreasedbyseveralfactors yield thatalsobroadlyreflectspacapitaagricu ArticleA furtherdemonstrationofR&Ddrivenproductivi economiessuch fractions ofthoseindeveloped notwithstanding, researchoutputperunitinvest Colombia and$3.48forChina.Thisdisparit million translatedtoapercapitavalue of$0.8 Examples presentedinTable1showthatR&D Millennium drought 27% yield reduction27% yield associatedclimatechange(Hochman et al., /abares/publications). tween 2002/03 and2012/13inAustralia tween 2002/03 [insert Figure6nearhere] (Annonymous, 2016);thiscausedwidespreadcrop y inpercapitainvestmentresearch s and services amongst countries toprovide servicesamongstcountries s and researchexpenditure in R&D investmentarereflectedinincreased in R&D lture R&Disdominated 0 comparedwith$6.26fo Asia-Pacific region, China along with India region,ChinaalongwithIndia Asia-Pacific ltural R&Dinvestment(Table1).Investmentin ong with improvements in GFS scores, inrecent inGFSscores, ong withimprovements asUSA,AustraliaandGermany(Table 1). vestment in Ethiopia with a population of94 vestment inEthiopiawithapopulation ment inmanydevelopingeconomiesaresmall in thepast50years,similartotrend ty gainsisapparentintheaveragecereal were mostlydrivenbythelargecountries in an expansion of cropping to marginal lands croppingtomarginal an expansionof ture isdifficultduetodifferencesincost (Alston and Pardey,2006). by developedeconomies r SouthAfrica,$4.24for This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. correlation betweenGFS scoresandCPIamongst affordability andquality offood.Asshownear operating environmentforthewholeofvalue chaininthefoodsystem,including Accepted(http://www.transparency.org/country). TheCPI Index (CPI)compiledannuallyby credible surrogate forthestateofgovernance. security, itisimperativetoconsiderthisfurt The stateofthecivilgovernanceimpactsboth 3.2.5 Governanceandsocialstability they areintended.Governanceisthusacritic require efficientmanagementoftheallocatedre Deriving fullbenefitsfrominvestmentsinR&D and adoptioncanconfoundbenefitofresearchin not effectivelyusedforsuchpurposeinmanyco weak, especiallysoindevelopi benefits, andcorrelations betweenGFSandlong Articlehowever, thatR&Dinvestmentbyandinitself InternationalAgricultural Consultative Groupof forR&Dactivitiesth countries obtainsupport In developing countries(Fischeretal.,2014). ending in2010arerequiredthenextdecade Significant increases inagricultureR&Dinvestment andPakistan(Khanetal.,(2006). compared tothoseinChina (<50% with comparativelysmalllossesofwater wa partlybyminimisinginon-farm (2.93 t/ha) usedjust3%ofthewater,thaninIndia byafactorofmorethan2.5,but in theUSislarger associated withefficiency gains(Figure 6),i.e. The highcropproductivityexperiencedincount ng economies. This isbecause ng economies.This TransparencyInternational her. Corruptionperceptionofacountryprovides a al factorandwillbeconsideredfurther. light oftheirlowR&Dcapacity,manythese light rough internationalresearchcentresinthe ter losses (Chapagain, 2009). This is consistent isconsistent This ter losses(Chapagain,2009). the demand and supply sides of global food ofglobal thedemandandsupplysides wouldnotnecessarily producing morewithless. lier (Figure1),therewas astrongnegative and extension/technologytransferactivities and It isevaluatedusingtheCorruptionPerceptions ) inconveyanceforricefarms inAustralia to ensurefutureglobalfoodsecurityin ries withlargeR&Dinvestmentscanthusbe Research (CGIAR) network. untries. Furthermore,poor -term researchexpenditure may begenerally sources ensuringthattheseare usedforwhat is thusanappropriatesurrogateforthe vestment anditscorrelationwithproductivity. the countriesofworld. Extreme formsof s ofatleast50%overthelevels ofdecades resource allocationsforR&Dare guarantee productivity For instance,riceyield It is to be noted, tobe Itis technologytransfer This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. publication-GFS scorerelationships (Figure6). governance partlyexplains theverticaldistribut countries thaninAustraliaandUSA.Inaddition Acceptedinvestments madeinR&Dsuchthataveragecost partly countries suchasNigeriaandPNGalso exports-and-imports-of-agricultural-products). GFS scoreisunderpinnedbyrelianceonfo governance systemshelpimprove witha extent thathighCPIisassociated and subsequentlylowlifeexpectancyareofte Wheresuchattitudepermeatesmuchofth 2015). and unmotivated,thusunresponsivetothere food systems(SladeandWardell-Johnson,2013). inconsistency, overlap,wastageandpooroutc of policiesandstrategies,whilepromotingineffi spread across severalagenciesandregulatoryauth Article tohavedisjointedpolicymaking andimplementationthatare Countries withlowCPItend GFS scoresthatareoften<40%(Figure7). countries withCPI>60generallyhave GFSscore (http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Resources). This strongly correlatedwithpoliticalopennessofcountries through generalwelfare ofthecommunity.Ind accountability, allprofoundlyimpactthewholeof enshrineeffectivedecisionmaki of nationsto from 42.0in2012to36.3 breakdown oflawandorderasprecursorstoci governance failuresoftenleadtopoorstateof in2016andUkrainefrom58.4 food security of countries such as Singapore, wherethehigh food securityofcountriessuchasSingapore, [insert Figure7nearhere] ccountability andresponsivegovernments,such od imports (https://knoema.com/cduhihd/world- od imports explains the low research output from the explainsthelowresearchoutputfrom ng, appropriatepolicesandimplementation, n theresult(Uchendu andAbolarin,2015).Tothe omes in both thedemandandsupplysidesof omes inboth Adeficitofaccountabilityinmanyother security,lawandorder,evencomplete eed, foodaffordabilityhasbeenfoundtobe vil wars.Hence,GFSscoreforSyriahas fallen to differencesintechnologicaldevelopment, to ion ofcountrieswithinindividual binsinthe ciencies. Suchafragmentedapproachleadsto >70, whilethosewithCP for apaperisseveralfactorslargerin these Often thecivilservicetendstobelowlypaid thefoodsystemdirectlyandindirectly e socio-economicenvironment,malnutrition sponsibilities oftheirpositions(Economist, orities thatseverelyrestrictdesiredimpacts is consistent with our observation that withourobservation isconsistent to55.2.Theabilityandwillingness I <50haveprecarious technologies withlimited scopeforfurthersignif upper limitsoftheirbiophysical productivity Farmersinthesetechnically adva food products. been succe with thetechnologicalknowhowhave than availabilityhasafargreaterimpactonG that use inagriculture.Wehaveshownhere association betweenGFSandeither The argumentsandavailablesupportingevidence (Gregory etal.,2005; particularly vulnerableto decliningrainfall latent waterresourcesforagriculturalandothe these regions, weakeconomy and/ortechnology This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted15 existential threattoGFS. declining availability offreshwaterresourcesst unfortunate confluenceofpopulation,whichis Articleof theprojectedgrowthinglobalpopulat primarilyinthedevelo driest partsoftheglobe, narrative isaccentuatedbythefactthatma biophysical, economic,socialandtechnical Securityiscomplex Attainment ofGlobalFood 3.3 Summaryandconcludingremarks an estimated70millionpeople tofurtherexacer GFS alsobeginstomanifest Sudan andpartsofNigeria(Wade,2017).Insuch Recent wars andextremecasesoffoodinsecurity. failureofgo or demandsideofGFS.Complete The stateofgovernancethereforeoutweighs all o Nand23 o SandinsouthernAsiaacross Hanjara et al., 2010). Hanjaraetal.,2010). This This is especiallyevident throughmost worldwide(Wade,2017). populationorgrossavailabilit ion (AlexandratosandBruinsma,2012).This and droughtsassociatedwith climatechange challenges. Theacceptance of this common India andBangladeshbetween23 India potentialwiththecurrent conventional the mannerofusewaterresourcesrather bate hungerandmalnutritioncurrentlyaffecting FS situation,suchthatindustrialisedcountries vernance oftenculminatesincivilunrestsand and involvesinteractionsamongstanumberof rike achordwiththepopularnarrativeas theprimarydriverondemandside,and r uses.Theseregionswereidentifiedasbeing jority ofglobalpopulation(85%)livesinthe ping countriesthatwouldaccountforalmostall nced economiessuchasAustraliaareclosethe other extenuatingfactorseitheronthesupply icant gains(Fischeret basehaveconstraineddevelopmentofthe environments, the impact of population on environments,theimpactofpopulation ssful inmeetingsuppliesofaffordablequality presentedhere,however, suggestaweak examples oftheseareseeninYemen,South of sub-Saharan Africabetween sub-Saharan of y ofwaterresourcesandtheir al., 2014). This suggests al., 2014).This o and30 o N. In This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. International Development (AusAID). Awards (Africa) forWaterHarvesting and Small- Terence FarrellattheGRDC, Australia,duringthis available dataareusedinthisstudy.Weappr AcceptedAcknowledgments low incomeandemerging economies. urban farming(ZezzaandTasciotti landtenure system access (IFC,2014),equitable corruption. Theseinconjuctionwithotherimpo technology transfermechanisms,whilemini the developingcountries,throughpoliciesta Therefore, G agricultural water-use>population. industrial water-use availability. Theinfluenceofthesixfactorson R&D, whileminimisingmismanagementwould have theweakestimpactonattainingGFS,while Article thatweused In conclusion,ofallthefactors developing economies. inthevastmajorityof in factbadlyneededtheoverallgovernanceofanationstate primarily responsible forthegenerally poorreturn priority istoimprovegovernanceinthere apparently self-sufficientinf for enduringfoodsecurityhasbeenemphasised the developedeconomies(Fischer potential inthesecountries,where the potential for priori Policies forattainingGFSshouldtherefore the developingcountries. that thepotentialforsignificantquantumincrease Weacknowledgethemanyorganisation ≈ publication rate(R&Dinvestment) ood production (Anderson and Strutt, 2014). The second policy production(AndersonandStrutt,2014).Thesecond ood 2010) can contribute to improvements in food security in 2010)cancontributetoimprovementsinfoodsecurity et al., 2014). Increased agricultural R&D to boost production et al.,2014).Increased agriculturalR&Dtoboost

search, extensionandproductionvalue-chain, inouranalysis,populationandwaterresources mising mismanagement,unaccountabilityand rgeting effective investmentsinR&Dand eciate the many helpful discussions with Dr eciate themanyhelpfuldiscussionswith GFSscoreamongstcountrieswasintheorder: raise productivityandsecurityoffood rtant factorsarguedelsewheresuchascredit Scale Irrigation fromtheAustralianAgency for (Maxwell and Weibe 1999), and promotion of (MaxwellandWeibe1999),promotion tise R&Dinvestmentsthatunlockproductivity technicalinnovation investmentsin through even foracountrysuchasChinathatis FS canbeattainedgenerally,butespeciallyin study. This work was inspired bythe Australia workwasinspired study.This on RD&E investments. This policy priorityis Thispolicy onRD&Einvestments. in global food productionresidesmostlyin inglobalfood relative productivitygainsislargerthanin ≈ corruptionperception>> s, citedinthetext,whosepublicly This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted Article work. Competing interests standards Compliance withethical The authorsdeclarethat wehavenoco nflict ofinterestinreportingthis This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. AcceptedDSEWPaC (2011).Currentstateandtrendsof Davis, K.F.,Gephart,J.A.,Emer RemarksbySecretary ofStat Clinton, H.(2012). Cio Chapagain, A.(2009). Bruinsma, J.(2009). Borras Jr,S.M.,McMichael,P.,Scoones,I.(2 Beintema, N.,Stads,G.-J.,Fuglie, ArticleBaldos, U.,Hertel,T. P. Waggoner, Ausubel, J.H.,WernIcK,I.K., Annonymous. (2016,December Foodsecuritypo Anderson, K.,StruttA.(2014). Alston JM,P.(2006).Develo J.(2012). Alexandratos, N.,Bruinsma, Alexandratos, N.(2005),CountrieswithRapid References ł kosz, A. (2011). Mapping oflandusechange kosz, A.(2011).Mapping crop yieldsneedtoincreaseby2050? 554-570. and climatechange. Washington, DC,USA trends/2-1-land-use-and-management trends/2-1-land-use-and-management http://www.environment.gov.au/science management. Change Meeting futurefooddemandwithcurrentagricultural . 2017). from http://aciar.gov.au/aifsc/food-security- Geoinformation Issues,3 http://www.rac.es/fic Workshop: Re-thinkingparadigm related torice trade change: editors'introduction. agricultural R&Dspending: developing sparing. from https://en.wikipedia.org/ countries. FoodPolicy,49(1),50–58. World: TooLittle,Late? for Self-Reliance? InA.J.PardeyPG,RoleyRP(Ed.), revision: ESA WorkingpaperRome,FAO,Italy. 237–258. doi:10.1111/j. Issues ofFood,Agriculture,andDevelopm , PoPulation anddeveloPmentreview,38 39 , 125-132. , 125-132. The resourceoutlookto2050:howmu Land ofrice:Quantifyingth (2014). Global foodsecurity (2014). Global RetrievedJune2, . Paperpresentedatthe4thMa Australian JournalofAgricultural andResourceEconomics,58 heros/doc/00740.pdf ping-Country PerspectivesonAg 1728-4457.2005.00064.x y, K.A.,Leach,A.M.,Galloway, (1 (3)),77-86. 2016). 2000s Australiandrought 2016). 2000s K. O.,Heisey,P.W.(2012). (pp.33-50).InternationalFood The JournalofPeasantStudies,37 wiki/2000s_Australian_drought World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the2012 towards2030/2050: World agriculture s: waterandfoodsecurity. E. (2013). Peak farmland and the prospect forland Peakfarmlandandtheprospect E. (2013). 2016,from thelandenvironment|2.1Landuseand 010). The politics of biofuels, landandagrarian ofbiofuels, 010). Thepolitics Population GrowthandResourceConstraints: countries accelerate investment licy options for China: Lessons from other China:Lessonsfrom licy optionsfor e Clinton on Global Food Security. Retrieved GlobalFood e Clintonon s in Poland using Earthobservationdata. s inPolandusing /soe/2011-report/5-land/2-state-and- ent. PopulationandDevelopmentReview,31: in2050:Theroleofagriculturalproductivity and-why-it-matters. (Acc (s1), 221-242. ch: Byhowmuchdoland,waterand Agricultural R&DintheDeveloping rcelino BotínFoundationWater e rainbowofvirtualwaterfluxes ASTI globalassessment of J. N. and D’Odorico, P.(2016). D’Odorico, J.N.and ricultural R&D:NewPressures Retrieved January26,2017, PolicyResearchInstitute, (4), 575-592. (4), 575-592. Global Environmental essed: February2, . (4), This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Slade, C.,Wardell-Johnson, A.(2013). Accepted Agri OECD-FAO OECD-FAO (2017). Njoroge, J.,Waithaka,K.,Chweya,J.(1993) Njoroge, J.,Waithaka,K.,Chweya,J.(1992).Th Mwendia, S.,Yunusa,I.,Sindel,B.,Whalley,D., McDonald, B.L.(2016).Chapter6,TheWorldFood Khan, S.,Tariq,R.,Yuanlai,C.,Blackwell, Foodcons Kearney, J.(2010). Article L., Hochman, Z.,Gobbett,D. Globalwate Hanjra, M.A.,Qureshi,E.(2010). Gregory, P.J.,Ingram,J.S.,Brklacich, Skutsch,M.,Masera Gao, Y., Fischer, R.,Byerlee,D.,Ed people FAO (2009).1020million ofgl Projections Elam, T.E.(2006). theGlobal Insightsfrom Economist The.(2015). Facility. policy inAustralia http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-20 373-377. maize oncoffeeyields and economicreturnsinKenya. compact arabicacoffeehybridcultivar Ru 702. growth, yield componentsandyieldofArabicacoffee cv.Ruiru11. and foragequality. lowlandandhighlandtropicalen accessions in University Press. In FoodPower:TheRiseandFallof Water Management,80 Royal Society ofLondonB:Biological Sciences,365 in Australiasince1990. climate change. 2148. Philosophical TransactionsoftheRoyalSocietyB:BiologicalSciences,360 Canberra, ACT,Australia http://www.fao.org/news/story Institute. Report fortheAspenInstituteFoodSecu doi:10.1017/S001 biofuel development.WorkingPaper df http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/down Issues. Retrieved from . Food Policy,35 . GoldCoast,Australia:National Climate Change Adaptation Research 447971600003X Experimental Agriculture meades, G. (2014). Crop yieldsandglobalfoodsecurity. meades, G.(2014).Crop , O., Pacheco, P.(2011). , O.,Pacheco, umption trendsanddrivers. Horan, H. (2017). Climatetrends Horan, H.(2017). Global Change Biology (1), 87-99. . are hungry.Retrievedfrom cultural Outlook2017-2026. obal meat production through 2050. obal meatproductionthrough (5), 365-377. (5), 365-377. M. (2005). Climatechange andfoodsecurity. M. (2005). Creating aclimateforf /es/item/20568/icode. (Accesse J. (2006).Canirrigationbesustainable? the PostwarAmericanFood System 68. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia, 100p. Bogor,Indonesia, 68.CIFOR, . Effects ofintercroppingyoungplants ofthe . Effects FoodSecurityIndexforLong-TermPlanning: e influenceoftreetrainingandplantdensityon Kariuki,I.(2016).Assess rity StrategyGroup(pp.34):TheAspen iru 11withpotatoes,tomatoes,beansand 17-en. Accessed:Se r crisisandfuturefoodsecurityinaneraof load?doi=10.1.1.382.7 Crisis and the End of Post-warFoodSystem. CrisisandtheEndof , 53,27–43. , 23(5),2071–2081 vironments ineastAfrica:productivity A globalanalysisofdeforestation dueto (1554), 2793-2807. Philosophical Transactionsofthe ood security:governance and Experimental Agriculture,29 account forstalledwheatyields ptember 18,2017 d: February2,2017). Center for Global Food 067&rep=rep1&type=p ment ofNapiergrass J. Hort.Sci,67 J. . Oxford (1463), 2139- Agricultural Agricultural ACIAR, ACIAR, , 695- (03), This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted Walmsley, D.C.,Bailis,R.,Klein,A.-M.(2016) Article Australiansusedto Wade, M.(2017,April8-9). Vermeulen, S.J.,Campbell,B.M.,Ingram,J. Vermeulen, S.,Cotula,L.(2 Van Asten,P.,Wairegi,L.,Mukasa,D.,Uring T.O. Uchendu, F.N.,Abolarin, Soto-Pinto, L.,Perfecto,I.,Cast Snoeck, D.,Zapata,F.,Domenach,A.-M.(2000). Agriculture, Ecosystems&Environment,80 coffee productionatthenorthernTzeltalzoneofstateChiapas,Mexico. Technology landusechange Insights into why-did-we-stop-20170414-gvl3eh.html http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australians stop? Annual Review ofEnvironmentandResources,37 Peasant Studies,37 recompense inlarge-scale landdeals systems, 104 coffee–banana intercropping inUgan 95-100. fixed bylegumes tocoffee. and liveexpectancyindevelopingcountries. Sydney MorningHerald 50: 8993-9002. (4), 326-334. (4), 326-334. (4), 899-916. (4), 899-916. 010). Over the heads of local people:consultation,consent,and 010). Overtheheadsoflocal illo-Hernandez, J.,Caballero-Nie illo-Hernandez, (2015).Corruptpracticesnegati Biotechnologie, Agronomie, SociétéetEnvironnement, 4 andmanagementpractices. . Retrievedfrom da’s smallholderfarmingsystems. for biofuelsprojectsinAfrica. S. (2012). Climate chan S.(2012).Climate i, N.(2011).Agronomicand . A globalsynthesisofJatrophacultivation: . A care thatpeoplecare werestarving.Whydidwe Isotopic evidence ofthetransfernitrogen evidence Isotopic (1), 61-69. The PanAfricanmedicaljournal,20 -used-to-care-that-people-were-starving- (1), 195. vely influencedfoodsecurity to, J.(2000).Shadeeffecton Environmental Science& ge and food systems. ge andfood economic benefitsof The Journalof Agricultural . (2), This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted All varia demand Figure 1. Article b b - - andsupply Summary les arenat o o u u -side factor -side f thestreng ral log-tran s s sformed. sformed. t t thatared h ofassoci e e a a emed toco tions offo tions o o ntribute an d securitys d d tatus ofcou /or influen c c ntries with e foodsec u u rity.

This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted countrie Figure 2. Article s s Relationshi ). p between

p p opulation s ize andfoo d d securitysc ores of nati ores of o o ns (n= 104 ns (n=

This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted Note: co Figure 3. Article u Changesi ntries whi n c c agricultura h increased l l their agric landareai u u n n ltural area 2012relat t t ive tothet ended toh u u a a rn ofthec ve lowfoo e e d d ntury (200 securityst 0 0 a a ). tus.

This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted atmosph water-u “low” fo spline, o water all Figure 4. Article s s o o v v ocation to eric water e (solid circ Relationshi erall patte d security a d d r r s s l l ps between gricultural n; greenda es andtria emand and tatus; red d d n n a a s s ash line,tr gles), i.e., e logs ofGlo ctivities am supply (blu h line(FS= e e b b e e x x ongst coun nd linebet 75%) separ al FoodSec cluding hig rectangles w s w t t a a h latitudec urity scores ). ries (n=10 een FSand tes countri o 3 o 3 es intonoti percapita and ofper countries) untries wit a a o o c c : : bluedash h balanced apita annu gricultural nally “high

a a ” ” and l This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted red) and per capi Figure 5. Article t t a industrial fitted (dash Apparent p ositive asso ed black) li ed black) water cons

n n u u c c es mption. N iation bet w w o o te thetight een thefo o o alignment d securitys b b t t etween th atus ofnat e e i i spline(das ons and th ons and e e h h ir ed

This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted research publicati Figure 6. Article ons permill . Publicatio Apparent r n n e e ion ofpopu wastotal lationship lationship

n n b b l ation used umber ofp umber etween fo o o a a a a d securitys s asurroga pers publis s t t cores ofna hed betwe e forinves e e t t t t ions andag ment inagr n 1950and r ricultural icultural 2010.

This articleisprotected bycopyright.Allrightsreserved. Accepted Figure 7. Article Global Foo Global d d Security S c c ore andCo r r ruption Per r ception Ind e e x forcount ries

1994–2004) from (% change (kg/ha), 2005–2014, yields cereal Ave. 2015 Perception Index, Corruption ($US/paper, x10 Avecostpublication 1960 from (%) change and 2011 in million) ($US Agric R&DInvestment (x10 areas land Cultivated (x10 area land Arable (% over2012) Score, 2016 Global FoodSecurity (no./km density Population Key Indicators Table 1.Selected keydemographic,

This article isprotectedby copyright. Allrights reserved. Accepted Article 6 6 c km km

2 2 2 ) a ) ) 2 b

e

3 ) d

utai S emn tipaNigeria Australia USA Ethiopia Germany (+200) (+200) 0.472 1.700 0.118 0.119 0.329 0.329 0.157 1.700 0.472 0.118 0.119 1.504 0.469 1.650 0.116 0.113 0.301 0.301 0.148 1.650 0.469 0.116 0.113 1.385 (-4%) (-4%) 1795 1795 82.6 (+2) (+2) 493 3.2 33.0 230 96 202.0 202.0 33.0 3.2 96 230 43.0 143.3 79 83 81 33 26 44 37 25 36 85 25 70 70 37 37 70 70 25 85 36 44 26 25 83 33 81 79 37 304 576 697 584 2762 674 0.905 1294 4170 3853 3853 4170 13500 571 775 1294 423 576 304 697 2762 584 674 0.905 (+252) (+252) (+23) (+23) 4403 4403 6812 6812 86.6 (-4) (-4) agricultural and cropproductivity parameters forselected countries (+204) (+204) 1189 1189 6922 6922 82.3 (+9) (+9) (-1) (-1) ( +1832) (+55) (+55) (+34) (+34) 1786 34.7 80 80 (+513) (+513) (+20) (+20) (+13) 1456 1456 39.4 484 (+59) (+59) (+43) (+43) 3764 62.9 Africa (+2) (+2) South 338 + (+16) (+16) 4723 4723 5580 5580 65.5 (+5) (+5) 1506) hn agaehIdnsaSnaoePG rzl hl Columbia Chile Brazil PNG Bangladesh Indonesia Singapore China 136 3 79 1. 402. 43.0 22.0 24.0 16.0 7797 137 1123.6 (+803) (+803) .6 033 .0 086061002 0.351 0.856 0.661 0.022 0.002 0.333 0.061 .5 021 .0 022056002 0.021 0.222 0.586 0.022 0.001 0.201 0.055 (+38) 4154 4154 36.8 (+1) (+1) 195 195 (+420) (+420) (+20) (+20) 4768 50.6 (+8) 661 661 (n.a.d) (n.a.d) (n.a.d) n.a.d 210* 210* 83.9

(n.a.d) (+16) 4397 n.a.d 27 27 (+434) (+434) (+44) 3914 1839 67.6 67.6 (0) (+277) (+277) (+32) (+16) (+16) 6187 74.4 74.4 84 84 (+15) (+15) (+79) (+79) (+17) (+17) 3485 61.0 200 sources: Data power, parity; power, parity; (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.YLD.CREL.KG, ac (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.YLD.CREL.KG, (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_use_statistics_by_country, AccessedJanuary 22, 2017),

This article isprotectedby copyright. Allrights reserved. Accepted Article a d Wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_t ( Wikipedia based on R&D investment in 2011 and average num andaverage 2011 investment in on R&D based cessed January 22, 2017); n.a.d., no available data. noavailable n.a.d., 2017); 22, January cessed ber of papers published during 2012–2015; 2012–2015; during ber of papers published erritories_by_population_density, accessed22, 2017); January c Pardey al. Pardey et (2016), except [*]Singapo

e World Bank re from Anon (2014)all in purchasing b Wikipedia