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World Bank Document R ESTR I CTE D> Report No. AW-36a This report is for official use only by the Barnk Group and specifically authorized organizations Public Disclosure Authorized or persons. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or cornpleteness of the report. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF NIGER Public Disclosure Authorized May, 1972 Public Disclosure Authorized Western Africa Department CURRENCY EQIALENTS (a) Urntil August 11, 1969 US:$ 1.00 CFAF 246-85 French Franc 1.00 = CFAF 50.00 (b) After Agust 11, 1969 US$ 1.00 CFAF 277.71 French Franc 1.00 GCFAF 50.00 This report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Niger in March 1970. The mission was composed of the following members: H. Sânger Chief - General Economist G. Fossi Planning Officer U. Fontana Agriculturist (PMWA) A. I}uncan Transportation Erngineer (PNWA) H. Ochs Agricul-bural Economist A. Robinet Livestock Specialist - Consultant FAC NIGER TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. BASIC DATA IAPS SUMMARY AND CONSLUSIONS .................................... i - x Ie GENERAL BACKGROUND - CONSTRAINTS ON DEVELOPMENT ............... 1 A. Natural Resources ..................................... 1 Climate and Soils .................................... 1 Minerals ............................................. 2 B. Human Resources ...................................... 3 Population and employment ................. 3 Level of Education and Skills ...................... 4 C. Government and Policies .............................. 6 II. THE PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY - THE DIFFICULT PATH TOWARDS GROWTH ........................................ 8 A. Recent Developments in Production and Income .......... 8 Agriculture .......................................... 9 Livestock ............................................. 13 Industry and Mining .................................. 15 Services ............................................. 16 Income Distribution .................................. 17 B. Factors of Growth ...................................... t18 C. Financial Development ................................. 19 Public Finance ....................................... 19 Current Budget ...................................... 19 Investment Budget ....................................22 Treasury Position ................................... 22 Public Authorities and Public Enterprises ............. 23 Monetary and Credit Policies ........................... 23 Institutions ........................................ 23 Money Supply ............................. ........... 24 Interest Rates ...................................... 26 External Trade and Payments ........................... 27 Foreign Trade ....................................... 27 Overall Balance of Payments ........................... 29 External Debt ....................................... 29 Table of Contents Continued Page No. III. DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND PROSPECTS ........................ 30 A. Overaji Review of Planning............................... 30 B. Sectoral Development Policies and Prôspects ........... 32 Transport ................................ 32 Agriculture ................................. -35 Livestock ............................ ................ 37 Industry and Mining . ........ ........... 39 Education and Training ................................. 39 Power and'Telecommunication ........... 41 Estimates of Public Investments 1971-1974 ................ 41 C. Financing of lkiblic Investment ............ 43 The Budget and Development Policy ...................... 43 External Finance .... ...... .............. 46 D. External Trade and Payments Prospects ............... 47 E. Conclusion: Overall Growth Prospects .-. ...... e...... 48 LIST OF ANNEXES B;,SIC DATA Area 490,000 sq. miles; 1,267 sq. ln Po ulation (1970) 4.0 million rate of growth (1965-70) 2.77% density of population 3.1 per square Ian school attendance (1970) .8% inhabitants per hospital bed (1969) 1,300 Political Status Independent since 1960 Member of West African Monetary Union Associated Member of European Community Gross Domestic Product 1] (current prices (billion CFAF) 1966 1967 1968 1969 90.9 92.4 90.0 95.2 GDP per capita 1969 Approximiately CFAF 24,300 ($88) Production of incipalcrops (thousand7ometrictons) 1965/66 ~7l1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 Millet 769 841 1,000 Sorghum 732 1,095 700 265 277 350 215 Groundnuts (shelled) 289 160 276 288 298 254 207 130 Cotton seed 6.0 6.7 6.0 6.8 9.9 8.0 Live stock (thousands of heads) Cattle 4,000 4,200 Small ruminants 4,000 8,000 8,ooo 7 ,000 Government Finance CAF million) 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 Current budget (net) 1,056 71 revenues 938 -227 991 8,507 8,644 9,342 expenditures 9,142 l,09)1l -7,451 -8 ,573 -8,404 -9,369 -9,950 Investment budget expenditures -888 -899 -961 -627 -936 Extrabudgetary trans- actions (net) 3/ -168 - 62 -124 -263 -355 Overall deficit -890 -147 -1,117 -300 1 Mission estimates 2/ M4ainly road and pension funds -2- MonetaUy mirvez C) 1967/68 1968/69 1969!70 Ober-September) Foreign assets (net) 146 283 2,889 Domestic credit 7,258 7,9850 7,255 Claims on Government (net) -876 -821 -1>496 Claims on private sector 8>134 8,671 8,751 Money 5,566 6,120 Quasi-inoney 7,117 L492 719 794 Public Investments TOFAFiion) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Comitments 3M5 4,947 4,556 Disbursements 5,098 5,189 3,046 3,396 35812 3,910 4,598 Domestic Prices September 1 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1 European consuner index (1964 - 100) 102.2 107.7 117.9 120.8 124.7 127.6 African consumer index (1963 - 100) 105.3 116.9 117.4 110.9 127.6 130.0 External trade (CFAF million) 196" 1966 1967 1968 1969 Recorded Exports 6,250 8,574 8,580 7e125 6e250 Recorded Imports 9,300 11,115 11,352 10,237 12,570 Balance -3,050 -2,551 -2 ,772 -3 ,112 -6,320 Commodity Concentration of goods (Official trade) Percent 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Shelled groundnuts 48 60 69 63 59 Shelled groundnuts and Livestock 67 70 77 74 71 1/ June 1970 -3 - Balance of payments (OFAF million including 1968!/ 19692/ 1970d/ estimates for unrecorded trade) Goods and services -7>091 -11, 200 -9,800 Exports (f.o.b.) 8,517 7.,500 Ixports (f'.o.b.) 10.,300 -12 ,806 -15.,700 -17,000 Service s (net) -2,802 -3 ,000 -3,100 Unrequited transfer payrnents (net) 5,961 - Normnonetary capital (net) 2,338 Errors - and omissions -1,380 - Over-all surplus or deficit -172 1,339 2,561 Official foreign exchange holdings 1968 1969 1970 (Iinmiions of U.S. dollars: end of period) 2.7 6.7 18.7 External Aid - Payments (CFAj{ million) 1959-66 1967 1968 1969 1959-69 Total 21,,148 3 ,812 3.,845 4,598 33,403 French Aid (FAC) 10,012 1,269 1,346 1,672 14,299 FED 4,585 1,266 USAID 743 1,036 7,630 992 101 136 254 Other sources 1,,483 423 423 1,135 1,011 2,992 External Debt Tbillion) Total debt outstanding (end 1970) 10.4 Total debt service (1970) o.148 Debt service ratio (1970) 2.4% BCEAO Mission estimates ;0 CD o C . a CDX > .....-. X. ,.. ;a CL > ........... ..... >> o I <n NO > CII L I B Y A NI GER POPULATION DENSITY \ .00" One dot equals 3000 inhabitants ' Iferoune I *.BILMA j ------------------------------------------------ M A L I " * j . \ ~~AGAI)EZ , i ~~In Gall i*/fi, eX *'Ti-Lia e \ J TCHIN ÎABARADÊN * Abalakç> -Bani n * \ e-eN e o N'Gourti ç,Yata~<a4a :J6 a* OdZye rou 1 ~ *J,TAOU 0 pD: .~AGe 0TAOJ I al,a . ILLIN JU >8I L-EI, Ïe3eD o& KOROuI , C o GUIGMI . , ..e. * , l e GU GM I *oa 0¶ o: ~ *:.~ ';0 ~ Qtm0 GOUJRE y. c 00Oî oooo `ILNU 00 G *,OGONDOUÎ~H- é-4J RARDU4 RI Cee.ç *CX*e fi .......... "5 oo1020.0 ooo NI G......................... eAINE-SOROA MEYxi A H N I I L I B Y A REPUBLIC OF NIGER X X p AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION teOUOd All-weather roods , t JiÎJdo Ali-weather tracks Tracks without regular maintenance G ,Djada Rainfall lines (mm per year) 'IR Millet - - G roundnuts I Q~~~j r Rice * l~8 uezzam Sorghum) N B - 2247 -IY Nib Bens-fl V \ MOKNA 1 agLia 1 8000 ( DADHkoEo "FILIGUE NGUIGM R4 IBRI- REPUBLIC OF NIGER N I G E R OUTLETS TO THE SEA ._ j x 9 . Â HOUA 5TaAsNOUAT d o>XNIAMEY TESSAOUA Z IDER rsU P P E R V OL T A M.EYEDNAS Ç BIRNI N'LONNI '-,OUA-->XGADOUGO NGURU 50 O I? 250 A0H O Yjogd/ Ra JIVQR 197 IB) 3PARAKOO. 0- A S T -.TOG 0gG G E R I \ v G H A NAj XJ (2) G U L F O F G U /N E A Roads 5seeF A<E so0 so M. -... |§Z.sS .s Rail,oads o 50 ? 0 1so 250 350 KM- - . ,- International boundories Y 1''.1IBRID 308-1' MAI»/ REPUBLIC OF NIGER cTahouo Tanout Saborn Kafi <n ~~Birni-N' Konni\\ \-NIAMEY 272 Dos~ 272 i 272 71u '715 87 N- lM Marad uà Tlet« 162 57A1 Neru UPPER VOLTA\4 Gaoc\ j Mai nville t i9Kn ,2 ' 4982 N I G E R I A , ' DAHOMEY j N *-/ H-I±- Railway k 272 Parokou Rood Border T 438 Mileage by railway to seaport 315 Mileage by rood to seaport 753 Total mileage to seaport 0 100 200 300 Kilometers 0 50 100 150 200 Miles AlLANT/C OCEA N REPUBLIC OF NIGER TRANSPORTATION ROUTES FOR GROUNDNUT EXPORTS AUGUST 1971 IBRD 3533 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS A. General 1. At the beginning of Niger's second decade of independence, it faced is with serious economic difficulties and few prospects for immnediate recovery. Adverse weather conditions during recent years have seriously affected agricultural and livestock production and probably wiped out the gains of previous development efforts. This critical situation refilects the constraints and problems with which this country is beset. 2. Niger is.among the poorest and least developed countries in West-
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