R ESTR I CTE D> Report No. AW-36a
This report is for official use only by the Barnk Group and specifically authorized organizations
Public Disclosure Authorized or persons. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or cornpleteness of the report.
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS
OF
NIGER Public Disclosure Authorized
May, 1972 Public Disclosure Authorized
Western Africa Department CURRENCY EQIALENTS
(a) Urntil August 11, 1969
US:$ 1.00 CFAF 246-85 French Franc 1.00 = CFAF 50.00
(b) After Agust 11, 1969
US$ 1.00 CFAF 277.71 French Franc 1.00 GCFAF 50.00 This report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Niger in March 1970. The mission was composed of the following members:
H. Sânger Chief - General Economist
G. Fossi Planning Officer
U. Fontana Agriculturist (PMWA)
A. I}uncan Transportation Erngineer (PNWA)
H. Ochs Agricul-bural Economist
A. Robinet Livestock Specialist - Consultant FAC NIGER
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No. BASIC DATA IAPS SUMMARY AND CONSLUSIONS ...... i - x
Ie GENERAL BACKGROUND - CONSTRAINTS ON DEVELOPMENT ...... 1
A. Natural Resources ...... 1 Climate and Soils ...... 1 Minerals ...... 2
B. Human Resources ...... 3 Population and employment ...... 3 Level of Education and Skills ...... 4
C. Government and Policies ...... 6
II. THE PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY - THE DIFFICULT PATH TOWARDS GROWTH ...... 8
A. Recent Developments in Production and Income ...... 8 Agriculture ...... 9 Livestock ...... 13 Industry and Mining ...... 15 Services ...... 16 Income Distribution ...... 17
B. Factors of Growth ...... t18
C. Financial Development ...... 19 Public Finance ...... 19 Current Budget ...... 19 Investment Budget ...... 22 Treasury Position ...... 22 Public Authorities and Public Enterprises ...... 23 Monetary and Credit Policies ...... 23 Institutions ...... 23 Money Supply ...... 24 Interest Rates ...... 26 External Trade and Payments ...... 27 Foreign Trade ...... 27 Overall Balance of Payments ...... 29 External Debt ...... 29 Table of Contents Continued
Page No.
III. DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND PROSPECTS ...... 30
A. Overaji Review of Planning...... 30
B. Sectoral Development Policies and Prôspects ...... 32 Transport ...... 32 Agriculture ...... -35 Livestock ...... 37 Industry and Mining ...... 39 Education and Training ...... 39 Power and'Telecommunication ...... 41 Estimates of Public Investments 1971-1974 ...... 41
C. Financing of lkiblic Investment ...... 43 The Budget and Development Policy ...... 43 External Finance ...... 46
D. External Trade and Payments Prospects ...... 47
E. Conclusion: Overall Growth Prospects .-...... e...... 48
LIST OF ANNEXES B;,SIC DATA Area 490,000 sq. miles; 1,267 sq. ln Po ulation (1970) 4.0 million rate of growth (1965-70) 2.77% density of population 3.1 per square Ian school attendance (1970) .8% inhabitants per hospital bed (1969) 1,300 Political Status Independent since 1960
Member of West African Monetary Union Associated Member of European Community Gross Domestic Product 1] (current prices (billion CFAF) 1966 1967 1968 1969
90.9 92.4 90.0 95.2 GDP per capita 1969 Approximiately CFAF 24,300 ($88) Production of incipalcrops (thousand7ometrictons) 1965/66 ~7l1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 Millet 769 841 1,000 Sorghum 732 1,095 700 265 277 350 215 Groundnuts (shelled) 289 160 276 288 298 254 207 130 Cotton seed 6.0 6.7 6.0 6.8 9.9 8.0 Live stock (thousands of heads)
Cattle 4,000 4,200 Small ruminants 4,000 8,000 8,ooo 7 ,000 Government Finance CAF million) 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 Current budget (net) 1,056 71 revenues 938 -227 991 8,507 8,644 9,342 expenditures 9,142 l,09)1l -7,451 -8 ,573 -8,404 -9,369 -9,950 Investment budget expenditures -888 -899 -961 -627 -936 Extrabudgetary trans- actions (net) 3/ -168 - 62 -124 -263 -355 Overall deficit -890 -147 -1,117 -300 1 Mission estimates 2/ M4ainly road and pension funds -2-
MonetaUy mirvez C) 1967/68 1968/69 1969!70 Ober-September) Foreign assets (net) 146 283 2,889 Domestic credit 7,258 7,9850 7,255 Claims on Government (net) -876 -821 -1>496 Claims on private sector 8>134 8,671 8,751 Money 5,566 6,120 Quasi-inoney 7,117 L492 719 794 Public Investments TOFAFiion) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Comitments 3M5 4,947 4,556 Disbursements 5,098 5,189 3,046 3,396 35812 3,910 4,598 Domestic Prices September 1 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1 European consuner index (1964 - 100) 102.2 107.7 117.9 120.8 124.7 127.6 African consumer index (1963 - 100) 105.3 116.9 117.4 110.9 127.6 130.0 External trade (CFAF million) 196" 1966 1967 1968 1969 Recorded Exports 6,250 8,574 8,580 7e125 6e250 Recorded Imports 9,300 11,115 11,352 10,237 12,570 Balance -3,050 -2,551 -2 ,772 -3 ,112 -6,320 Commodity Concentration of goods (Official trade) Percent 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Shelled groundnuts 48 60 69 63 59 Shelled groundnuts and Livestock 67 70 77 74 71
1/ June 1970 -3 -
Balance of payments (OFAF million including 1968!/ 19692/ 1970d/ estimates for unrecorded trade)
Goods and services -7>091 -11, 200 -9,800
Exports (f.o.b.) 8,517 7.,500 Ixports (f'.o.b.) 10.,300 -12 ,806 -15.,700 -17,000 Service s (net) -2,802 -3 ,000 -3,100 Unrequited transfer payrnents (net) 5,961 - Normnonetary capital (net) 2,338 Errors - and omissions -1,380 - Over-all surplus or deficit -172 1,339 2,561 Official foreign exchange holdings 1968 1969 1970 (Iinmiions of U.S. dollars: end of period) 2.7 6.7 18.7
External Aid - Payments (CFAj{ million) 1959-66 1967 1968 1969 1959-69 Total 21,,148 3 ,812 3.,845 4,598 33,403 French Aid (FAC) 10,012 1,269 1,346 1,672 14,299 FED 4,585 1,266 USAID 743 1,036 7,630 992 101 136 254 Other sources 1,,483 423 423 1,135 1,011 2,992 External Debt Tbillion)
Total debt outstanding (end 1970) 10.4 Total debt service (1970) o.148 Debt service ratio (1970) 2.4%
BCEAO
Mission estimates ;0
CD o
C . a CDX > .....-. X. ,.. ;a
CL >
......
>>
o I NO > CII L I B Y A NI GER POPULATION DENSITY \ .00" One dot equals 3000 inhabitants ' Iferoune I *.BILMA j ------ M A L I " * j . \ ~~AGAI)EZ , i ~~In Gall i*/fi, eX *'Ti-Lia e \ J TCHIN ÎABARADÊN * Abalakç> -Bani n * \ e-eN e o N'Gourti ç,Yata~ *oa 0¶ o: ~ *:.~ ';0 ~ Qtm0 GOUJRE y. c 00Oî oooo `ILNU 00 G *,OGONDOUÎ~H- é-4J RARDU4 RI Cee.ç *CX*e fi ...... "5 oo1020.0 ooo NI G...... eAINE-SOROA MEYxi A H N I I L I B Y A REPUBLIC OF NIGER X X p AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION teOUOd All-weather roods , t JiÎJdo Ali-weather tracks Tracks without regular maintenance G ,Djada Rainfall lines (mm per year) 'IR Millet - - G roundnuts I Q~~~j r Rice * l~8 uezzam Sorghum) N B - 2247 -IY Nib Bens-fl V \ MOKNA 1 agLia 1 8000 ( DADHkoEo "FILIGUE NGUIGM R4 IBRI- REPUBLIC OF NIGER N I G E R OUTLETS TO THE SEA ._ j x 9 . Â HOUA 5TaAsNOUAT d o>XNIAMEY TESSAOUA Z IDER rsU P P E R V OL T A M.EYEDNAS Ç BIRNI N'LONNI '-,OUA-->XGADOUGO NGURU 50 O I? 250 A0H O Yjogd/ Ra JIVQR 197 IB) 3PARAKOO. 0- A S T -.TOG 0gG G E R I \ v G H A NAj XJ (2) G U L F O F G U /N E A Roads 5seeF A so0 so M. -... |§Z.sS .s Rail,oads o 50 ? 0 1so 250 350 KM- - . ,- International boundories Y 1''.1IBRID 308-1' MAI»/ REPUBLIC OF NIGER cTahouo Tanout Saborn Kafi \-NIAMEY 272 Dos~ 272 i 272 71u '715 87 N- lM Marad uà Tlet« 162 57A1 Neru UPPER VOLTA\4 Gaoc\ j Mai nville t i9Kn ,2 ' 4982 N I G E R I A , ' DAHOMEY j N *-/ H-I±- Railway k 272 Parokou Rood Border T 438 Mileage by railway to seaport 315 Mileage by rood to seaport 753 Total mileage to seaport 0 100 200 300 Kilometers 0 50 100 150 200 Miles AlLANT/C OCEA N REPUBLIC OF NIGER TRANSPORTATION ROUTES FOR GROUNDNUT EXPORTS AUGUST 1971 IBRD 3533 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS A. General 1. At the beginning of Niger's second decade of independence, it faced is with serious economic difficulties and few prospects for immnediate recovery. Adverse weather conditions during recent years have seriously affected agricultural and livestock production and probably wiped out the gains of previous development efforts. This critical situation refilects the constraints and problems with which this country is beset. 2. Niger is.among the poorest and least developed countries in West- ern Africa. Lying directly north of Nigeria, it forms a vast landlecked plateau 2 covering an area of about 1 .3 million km , 3/4 of which belongs the to Sahara Desert. Apart from this handicap of distance from overseas pliers sup- and markets (the capital, Niamey, îs 1,000 km. from the nearest port, sea Cotonou), Niger suffers from other serious constraints on develop- ment: the harsh natural environment can be modified only to a limited ex- tent, there are no important resources that can be quickly or easily devel- oped, there are signs that its population of about 4 million has grown too fast in relation to available resources and prevailing production tech- niques, education and skills remain as yet poorly developed. Finally, tremendous internal distances and long borders over which goods out move with- much control severely limit the economic and administrative integra- tion of the country. 3. Since independence, government stability and national unity have been strengthened under the leadership of President Diori Hamani, who was re-elected in 1970 for his third five-year term. The Government has recently tried to diversify its relations with neighboring states and foreign aid tries. coun- Indeed, it is presently giving special attention to better organizing trade with its powerful neighbor, Nigeria. This is vital for Niger's long-term development prospects. The Government has also succeeded in securing impor- tant foreign funds for financing and in diversifying their origin. In addi- tion to the traditional aid donors, FAC and FED, Canada has recently become an important supplier of capital and technical aid. B. Economic and Financial Developments 4. On the whole, the past decade has been one of slow structural changes in Niger's economic set-up, one of very moderate growth in the pro- duction of goods and services, and one in which fundamental difficulties in both public finance and external trade have been improved, but not solved. Public foreign aid and technical assistance remain essential to keep Niger's public administration and ec*nomy working. TLhe country has remained basically an agricultural economy, with 90 percent of the population engaged in activities rural and aDout 60 percent of GDP originating in agriculture (including livestock). 5. Available GDP data for 1960-66 show that annual overall growth per capita and income increased markedly (about 2 percent per capita), mainly to increased due groundnut production and, to a lesser degree, due to cotton pro- duction. However, from 1968-69, the country suffered from drought which caused a sharp decline in agricultural production and a heavy loss in livestock. Simultaneously, livestock exports to Nigeria declined due to the civil war, and European support of groundnut prices was withdrawn. Rough estimates of growth show that GDP increased by only 4.7 percent during the period 1966-69 (1.5 percent annually in current prices). Thus, considering the fast popula- tion growth (2.7 percent) and the general rise of prices (2.2 percent), one can conclude with a fair degree of certainty that during the last years the income situation of Nigert s population deteriorated. 6. The dominant fact in Niger's agriculture is the precariousness of the food situation, which is gradually becoming more serious because of pop- ulation pressure without productivîty improvement. When drought strikes, farmers turn away from cash-crops and give priority to food crops to rebuild their depleted food reserves. Thus, the effects of the 1968-69 drought have led to a growing substitution of land under groundnut cultivation in favor of millet and sorghum production. This has resulted in a sharp drop of farm- ers' cash income and a general decline of the modern-monetized sector of Ni- gerien agricultusre. Cash income of livestock raisers also fell as a result of drought losses and their difficulties in exporting cattle to Nigeria. 7. The industrial sector contributes lîttle to GDP. In 1966, its share was a little over ten percent, and it is unlikely that it has increased markedly since then. Industrial growth has been affected, in general, by the decline of rural incomes and, in particular, by the variations in construc- tion activities, which peaked in 1969-70 and dropped sharply in 1971 because of a lack of new public investment projects. 8. Besides these temporary fluctuations the development of the indus- trial sector is handicapped by various structural constraints. Varicus indus- tries suffer from the strong competition of Nigerian products and high trans- portation costs; both factors reduce the domestic market for Niger's products considerably. Part of the Niger market is increasingly dominated by Nigerian products which are generally less expensive because of the greater internal economies of its factories and cheaper transportation Cost (railway). To these handicaps must also be added the recent increase in unofficial imports from Nigeria. 9. The services sector, including transportation, has shown the highest growth rate (about nine percent per annum) during the first half of the last decade. Its share of GDP was eighteen percent in 1961 and increased to twenty percent in 1966. In general, the growth of this sector throughout the period was linked to the gradual "monetization" of the economy and, in particular, to the increase of both exports and imports. However, due to the diffîcul- ties in agriculture, commercial activities declined during the years 1966- 69 (about 4.5 percent). At the beginning of this year, commercial enterprises were left with considerable stocks and lit.1le prospects for recovery in the immediate future. Financial Aspects 10. During the past two years, the overall balance of payments improved. This was mainly due to the increased foreign aid and private capital inflows which offset the increasing deficit on goods and service payments. >cr 1970, - iii - gross foreign exchange assets amounted to CFAF 5.2 billion representing about four months of official imports. Hence, the present situation çloes not call for any corrective measures, and no serlois Alanee *>f r Vt(iP likelv to occur in the near future especially since uranim export8 wi11 be- come a new and substantial credit item in Niger's trade balance. It is likely, therefore, that the deficit on current'accounts which amounted to over 10 percent of GDP in recent years will decrease in the near future. Rough es- timates of the current balance in 1974 leave a gap of CFAF 5 to 6 billion. As in the past, financing of this resource gap is expected to come mainly from the net inflows of public grants (FAC, FED) and loans on concessionary terms from various bilateral and multilateral aid institutions. 11. The Government has made substantial efforts to improve its finan- cial position. The overall taxation rate has, in fact, increpaed froir 9.5 percent of GDP in 1966 to 11.4 percent in 1969. However, the Government has found it difficult to maintain a current account surplus. Budgetary savings have fluctuated widely reflecting the impact of the country's recent economic difficulties on budgetary receïpts. In the years 1965/66-1969/70, the overall Treasury deficit fluctuated between one and ten percent of cur- rent revenues. This deficit was financed by French budgetary support, non bank resources, accumulated Government deposits and borrowings from the Cen- tral Bank. At the same tïme most of the customary resources of the Treasury, such as funds of public institutions and enterprises, were deposited with the Niger Development Bank (BDRN) in spite of the recent decree (June 1968) re- quiring them to deposit at least 25 percent of theîr cash holdings in the Treasury. The Development Bank, however, unable to find sufficient bankable projects has accumulated important cash balances. The Government is aware of this problem and is trying to remedy this situation. An optimal use of public resources may require channelling these funds both to the Treasury and to the Goverument investment budget. This would probably allow the Government to mobilize more public funds for financing investment projects in all sectors of the economy. At the same time it might also be advisable to reconsider the lendïng policy of the BDRN by allowing it to enter new sectors. 12. In 1969-7n, however, an increase of world market prices for ground- nuts which was only partly passed on to the farmers, resulted in a marked im- provement of the Government's financial position. The Government repaid short-term debts and increased its deposits with the local banking system, thus further improving its liquidity position. 13. This temporary improvement does not imply that public savings can be considerably increased during the coming years. There is little hope for a substantial increase in tax receipts, since the overall taxation rate has markedly increased during the past decade and it is estimated that during the recent bad. years farmers had to spend an increasing part of their severely reduced cash incomes for tax payments to the Government. Further increases in tax rates wouid rapidly become counter-productive at least in some regions of the country. -iv- 14. During the next fifteen years the minïng of uranium wili provide additional revenues. The Government intends to use these revenues exclusively for investment purposes hoping to balance the budget by other means. The yield of export taxes is not expected to provide much relief in view of the probable decline of world market prices for groundnuts and cotton. Exces- sive import taxes would be evaded by smuggling to Nigeria. Thus, although there is still scope for improving the collection and structure of the pres- ent tax system, the future growth of Government revenues will mainly depend on the development of Niger's economy; the basic issue of Niger's future budgetary policy will be to keep the increase in budgetary outlays in line with the pace of growth of its economy. Only such an effort and a more flexible public financial policy might allow the Governmnent to continue to make a small contribution to financing future public investment expend- itures. 15. During past years, investment expenditures have increased at an annual rate of about 10 percent, compared to a GDP growth rate of 1.5 per- cent. xHowever, in the case of Niger, the relation between investment and growth'is far from direct; weather and external influences are important unpredictable factors, r-eflecting both the narrow production base and the heavy dependence on the outside world of the economy. These constraints and the fact that public investments made only a small contribution to the creation of directly productive capacity and jobs, explain te a great ex- tent the recent difficulties and the present critical situation of Niger's economy. C. Development Planning and Prospects 16. The Governnent's economic policy has been determined by successive attempts to define the right "doctrine" to follow and is largely reflected in the country's planning experience. The implementation of the first four year plan (1965-1968), which was supposed to represent the means to carry out the first half of the "Perspectives Decennales" (1965-1974), encountered considerable difficulties. Since 1967, the Government has, therefore, adopted a system of rolling four year plans for public investment, the budget, train- ing activities and technical assistance. Targets have now become more real- istic and the means to fulfill them have been spelled out more precisely. This has given greater flexibility and control to Niger's plan'aing system. 17. The 1971-74 public investment program amounts to CFA? 47.6 billion (US$171 million). An appraisal of aggregate targets is difficult because much depends on a few larger projects that may or may not be implemented. However, the overall investment target, which is three times larger than ac- tual investments in the last four years, is unlikely to be reached because of the human and natural constraints of the country and particularly of its limited capacity to prepare and implement development projects. A certain acceleratîon, however, has occurred recently and may continue, if project management capacity grows apace. 18. The sectoral composition of the 1971-74 plan shows that 61 percent of the expected investments is allocated to transportation, as against about 33 percent during the past investment program. Development of agriculture and livestock is the Government's declared priority, but total resources de- voted to these sectors (15 percent) do not appear to be commensurate wîth requirements of an essentially agricultural economy and its present critical situation. 19. Financing of public investment expenditures has become increasingly dependent on foreign aid. While during the first half of the last decade Niger financed on the average, 24 percent of its public investment expendi- tures, its contributions dropped to 15 percent during 1966-69. The financing of the 1971-74 program will rely almost exclusively on foreign aid; local fi- nancing would cover only about 10 percent. Sectoral Policies 20. To solve Niger's serious internal and external transport problems, the Government has given high priority, since independence, to improving the country's main road network and to its outlets to the sea. Following the current program, some large road projects will be implemented, particularly continued paving of the main east-west axis and the road that will mainly serve the uranium mine near Arlit in the north of the country. At the same time, the Government intends to open up an additional access to the sea by making the Niger navigable for bulk shipments betwèen Port Harcourt and Niamey. 21. While most of the road investments are justified on economic grounds, the construction of the last section (Goure-Lac Tchad) of the east-west axis, where traffic is negligible, is mainly intended to serve the country's nation- al and administrative integration. To warrant its economic justification and to reduce its cost on the Government budget, a vigorous effort to develop the eastern region of Niger will have to be undertaken immediately. 22. Access to the sea is of prime concern to Niger. Most of Niger's foreign trade is shipped through the ports of Lagos in Nigeria and Cotonou in Dahomey. In the future the role of this latter access will probably diminish,.since the Government had decided to make the river navigable (six montths a year) for bulk shipments (mainly fuel). While the transport of fuel senems to be economically justified by 1975, the Government's intention to ship also dry goods on the river remains very questionable. In fact, the transport of these goods will entail high costs for constructing port facil- ities and divert further traffic from the Niamey-Cotonou axis. Both con- sequences will probably cause an increase in Niger's overall transport bill. In the long run, full and all-year river navigation may become feasible be- cause of the probable construction of a dam at Kaindadji, near the Malilan border, which is part of an important development scheme of the Liptako- Gourma region. In the meantime, the Government should continue its efforts to improve its two main outlets to the sea, Cotonou and Lagos, while imple- menting with caution a limited river navigation project. - vi - 23. The Government has also put an emphasis on developing water resources by constructing irrigation dams and village wells to serve human and livestock needs. While the well digging program has been relatively successful, the introduction of irrigated agriculture has encountered considerable human and technical difficulties. In the 1971-74 public investment program the Govern- ment is agairï giving high priority to implementing new irrigation schemes. Further investment in this field, however, should only be undertaken after careful examination and improvement of existing irrigation projects. 24. Whatever the long-term future of irrigation, a more pressing problem in the agricultural sector concerns improving main and secondary cash and sub- sistence crops. During the past decade, growth of these crops has mainly been achieved by extending cultivable land. Growing population pressure has led to a shortening of the fallow period and a general northward movement of the cul- tivated area at the expense of cattle land. This has resulted in serious soil erosion in various parts of the country and in more frequent fights between herders and farmers, indicating the growing competition between the two groups. 25. Considering the importance of these problems within the overall con- text of the economy, highest priority should be gïven to increasing agricul- tural productivity. This appliesfnot only to the production of the country's main cash crops (groundnuts and cotton), but, to a greater extent, also to foodstuffs to meet the growing internal and external demand. In fact, an in- crease in production of millet, sorghum and beans would allow Niger to become a regular supplier of foodstuffs for the expanding markets of the coastal countries (mainly NIGERIA, Ghana and Ivory Coast). Although there is still inclination to allocate large sums for irrigation projects, there is growing understanding that productivity schemes must be given highest priority. Ex- tension projects reflecting this approach are currently being prepared for various regions of the country. Moreover, the existing rural development in- stitutions, whose lack of coordination has led to confusion and inefficiency in the field, will be reorganized and strengthened. 26. The increase of agricultural productivity is also a prerequisite for the long-term development prospects of the livestock sector. Thi8 is true not only for the traditional nomadic sector, but also for a more perma- nent association between agriculture and livestock raising. In the long run, this association constitutes the most promising way of diversifying and rais- ing the output of existing Niger farms. 27. The consequences of past drought years will overshadow the near future of the livestock sector. To remedy this situation, ongoing programs to improve health and feeding conditions for cattle will be expanded to in- crease their productivity rather than their number. Pursuing this objective will be all the more necessary, since the potential growth of livestock has been seriously affected by the drought losses and there are growing signs that new grazing areas have become scarce. - vii - 28. The Government also intends to invest in ranches and meat process- ing units. A first ranching scheme, northwest of Niamey, was started in 1967. It lias encountered management difficulties and is presently exploited nt ornly 25 percent of its capacity. The Government intends to remedy this situation and rightly follows a cautious approach with regard to establishing new fat- tening facilities in the Zinder-Goure area. Setting up new cattle ranches as well as eventual new siaughter facilities in Zinder and Maradi will mainly depend on prospects for meat exports. 29. However, these prospects and a general modernization of meat produc- tion, and its distribution will require a reorganization of present commercial circuits and policies. Prevailing practices are generally in favor of the coastal import countries. High import tariffs on meat, in fact, protect the present distribution system, and low fîxed retail prices hinder improving cattle production on the producer side. It is expected that the new regional "Commr,nity for Meat and Livestock" (Entente Countries) will allow a gradual reorientation of this system in favor of the sahelien countries. This will also be the most critical test of better cooperation between Niger and Ni- geria, which until now has benefited most from the present system. 30. Industrial investments have been modest during recent years (besides SOMAIR) and, despite a favorable investment code, private foreign investments have remaïned limited. To compensate for the lack of internal and external initiatives, the Government has created a number of state-owned enterprises since independence. However, several of these enterprises have encountered difficulties in breaking-even or have incurred heavy losses. These problems were caused in part by inadequate feasibility studies and lack of adequate management and efficient Government control. This has led to increased Gov- ernment subsidization of this sector, underlining the urgent need for a gen- eral revision of this policy. 31. The exploitation of two uranium deposits in the northern part of the country represents the most important industrial projects for the coming years. While the first mine, exploited by a French-dominated company, started produc- tion at the beginning of this year, the recently discovered second uranium de- posit will not be mined before 1977. Although the exploitation of these mines will increase Government receipts, its impact on the economy as a whole - as typical enclave projects - will remain limited. This is particularly true wîth regard to creating new employment possibilities. They will be very few in relation to the total number of people for whom some form of productive employment must be provided. 32. Except for uranium mining, development possibilities in the indus- trial sector are confined to small enterprises working for the domestic or the world market. While prospects for export-oriented industries (oil-mills, tan- neries) seem favorable, prospects for developing industries producing only for the domestic market are limited, since almost two-thirds of Niger's mar- kets are dominated by Nigerian manufactured goods and since it will remain difficult, in view of geographical conditions, to establish tariff barriers, which are completely effective. - viii - 33. The solution to these problems seems to be a more organized rela- tionship between the economies of Niger and Nigeria (mainly northern Nigeria). This implies the possibility of Niger's more completely process'ng its ùwn agricultural products. The key issue of this eventual integration wiLl be the possibility of Niger's gradual processing all its livestock products in its own territory. Although a fundamental change in the traditional commer- cial relations between both economies will be a difficult task politically, it will be the first important step toward effective industrialization of Niger's economy and interregional integration. 34. Education in Niger, as in many African countries, suffers from the serious shortcomings of an imported educational system. Its cost, in terms of the country's income per capita, is high, its coverage very limited, its efficiency low and its content poorly related to the economic and social needs of the country. One of the major aspects of this inadaptation is the growing urban "white collar" unemployment, especially among school leavers. 35. As an attempt to overcome the constraints on the development of education, the Government initiated an important experiment in primary edu- cation: television broadcasts with a more rural type of education provided to 22 classes around Niamey. The initial results of this experiment have been encouraging: student performance improved consîderably, reducing the need for class repetition. However, the content of the program is probably not yet sufficiently adapted to the children's rural environment. While edu- cational T.V. (ETV), in its present form, might be able to contribute to the efficiency of the conventional primary education system, the most pressing need of the moment is a reform of this system itself. The aim of such a,re- form would be a type of primary education which would be sufficient in it- self and not a mere preparation for secondary schooling. Schools should pre- pare students primarily for rural life. In the context of a reform aimed at these objectives, ETV and other innovations might find a place. At the present stage, however, an expanded ETV would entail extremely high capital and recurrent costs because of the combined effect of low population density and low school enrollment ratios, wïthout providing the type of education which is most needed. 36. The Governnent is aware of the necessity to limit the expansion of the conventional education system to the needs of the economy and to adapt its content mainly to the requirements of the rural sector which will remain the country's primary source of employment. Hence, primary emphasis will have to be placed on rural education for both children and adults. This can be achieved through properly organized and staffed rural extension services and institutions capable of improving the level of education and skills of the village community as a whole. The Government has made a first step in this direction by recently starting a functional literacy campaign in some parts of the country. 37. The Government also intends to extend exîsting facilities for voca- tional training and to provide new places for higher secondary education. This will help meet the demand in all sectors of the economy for skilled workers, technicians and university graduates to replace foreign assistants. 38. While some additional investments in secondary and, particularly in vocational education seem economically justified, the Government's recent decision to create its own university reflects non-economic considerations. During recent years, Nigerien students were expelled from other Western Afri- can universities. Although Niger may be able to obtain external assistance for part of the recurrent cost of the university, it will become an increas- ing burden on the Government's budget. Previously established financial and enrollment targets for the education sector will probably have to be revised. It seens advisable, therefore, to be cautious about both the timing of this project and the development of individual schools, and to seek new means of cooperation wïth neighboring countries. 39. Major projects in the remaining sectors chiefly concern the develop- ment of power and telecommunication. As an alternative to existing thermal plants, two hydro-electric power projects are under consideration, namely the construction of a dam on the Mekrou River in Nîger and a power link be- tween the Kaindji Dam in Nigeria and Niger. Concerning the telecommunica- tions sector, the Government plans to expand the local telephone system in principal towns and to strengthen inter-urban routes by replacing the present rudimentary system of overhead lines with microwave links. In both sectors, proper timing of future investments will be important to adapt planned capac- ities to existing and anticipated needs of the economy. Investment Financing 40. Most of the present sources of external assistance will continue to make substantial contributions to Niger's developinent on terms similar to those used in the past. It is projected that French assistance will continue at or near past levels, and that FED) will substantially increase its invest- ment program in Niger. In the past two years, Canada has become an important source of aid and still has important funds available for future investment projects. Other potential aid donors are the World Bank Group, UNDP, ADB and other bilateral sources, such as the Federal Republic of Germany and the United States. Thus, despite the country's own limited resources, ample for- eign financial resources will be available and it is not expected that finan- cial constraints will, at this stage, hamper Niger's future development. Ac- celerating development expenditures will, in fact, depend more on improvements of Niger's project management capacity than on financial constraints of aid donors. 41. To av:id unnecessary competition and duplication, coordination among the growing number of foreign aid donors and the Niger Government will be most important. Furthermore, in assisting Niger in the development pro- cess, foreign aid institutions should bear in mind that the Government can only make a small contribution to development expenditures; they should be willing to finance a high proportion of local investment costs and to pro- vide financing almost entirely in the form of grants or on other concession- al terms. The debt service burden will remain low in terms of budgetary re- ceïpts and export-earnings during the next five years. However contracting new debts on ordinary commercial terms would put an additionai strain on the Government's budget and absorb resources that, otherwise, could have been devoted to improving the deplorably low standard of living of the people. 42. Growth prospects for the near future will be very limited, since the economy will still have to recover from îts serious setback of the past three years. Important projects for the agricultural sector, currently being prepared, will not mature before 1975. The large transport investments will have only an indirect and a long-term effect on the country's production capacity. Hence, major results of these projects will be felt only during the second half of this decade and then probably cause only a slight improve- ment in the per capita income of Niger's rural population. 43. It is the mining sector, namely, the expected production of SOMAIR (uranium) and related transportation and trade activities, that will become the most important single growth factor of Niger' s e,onomy during the near future. However, although this project will increase the share of the modern sector, its impact on the growth prospects of the rest of the economy will remain very limited. Broadly speaking, therefore, the potential for rural deveLopment will determine the pace of progress in Niger. 44. Progress will be affected by many factors that are susceptible to Government influence in varying degrees. Niger's immediate objective should be the rapid implementation of the envisaged reorganization of its rural de- velopment management. Volume and pattern of investment in this sector will, in fact, greatly depend on the Government's capacity to prepare and imple- ment investment projects and to create effective rural extensi6n services. 45. Progress will also depend on the Government's efforts to keep budgetary outlays down to the overall growth rate of the economy, to deal effectively with social problems, such as unemployment and education and to improve the "entrepreneurial" function of the public sector as a whole. 46. The Government is aware of these problems and of the necessity to revise past development targets and to define new policies for the present decade. The expected reform of rural development services, the reconsideration of the present education system and the extension of plan- ning to the country's different regions already reflect the Government's desire to define new development strategies. These new orientaticns and objectives will be clearly spelled out and integrated into a new overall approach to development in the "Ten-Year Perspectives" which it is currently preparing. It is important to note furthermore that Niger will only find optimum development conditions in a close cooperation and in a fairly ad- vanced level of integration with the economy of its southern neighbors, particularly Nigeria. The efforts to improve economic cooperation with the Entente countries and Nigeria should therefore be welcomed. 'j ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF NIGER I. GENERAL BACKGROUND - CONSTRAINTS ON DEVELOPM-IENT A. Natural Resources 1. Niger is among the poorest and least developed countries in West Africa. Lying directly north of Nigeria, it forms a vast landlocked plateau covering an area of 1,267,000 km2 , 3/4 of which belong to the Saharan and sub-Saharan desert. Apart from the handicap of distance from overseas sup- pliers and markets (the capital, Niamey, is 1,000 km from the nearest sea port, Cotonou), Niger suffers from other serious constraints on development: the harsh natural environment can be only slightly modified; there are no important resources that can be quickly or easily developed; there are signs that its population of about 4 million has grown too fast relative to avaïl- able resources and prevaiiîng production techniques, and its education and skills remain as yet poorly developed. Finally, tremendous internal distances and long borders over which goods move without much control severely lîmit the economic and administrative integration of the country. Climate and Soils 2. The agriculturally useful part of Niger is a narrow strip about 150 to 250 km wide, stretching for almost 1,600 km from the Niger River val- ley in the West to Lake Chad in the East, limited towards the South by the border with Nigeria and towards the North by the 350 mnm rainfall line. About 80 percent of the country's population lives in this area which is just over 10 percent of the Niger's total surface (see maps). South of the Sahara where rainfall still exceeds 200 mm, the country belongs to the nomads who, toward the end of the long dry season from October to May roam South in search of water and pastures. The Saharan part of Niger covers about four-fifths of the total area. The Touareg and some Arabs who live there, mostly as nomads, constitute two strong social groups. 3. Land and to a lesser extent water are the country's prîncipal re- sources, but are of poor quality. In the densely populated South, soils are generally poor and shallow, devoid of humus, and frequently overexploited. Alluvial soils are found only in the river valleys and in scattered depres- sions. The annual.rainfall ranges from 800 mm at thé Dahomey-Niger border in the Southwest to 25 mnm in the North, and extends over only a limited sea- son - from 90 to 150 days (May to September). Moreover, during this season, there are wide fluctuations in annual rainfall and in its distribution, causing great variation in crop yields. The intense heat over most of the year causes high rates of evaporation so that the water balance is positive during only 3-4 months in the Sudanian zone and only two months in the Saharan zone; it is strongly negative everywhere for the year as a whole. 4. These climatic and ecological conditions permit cultivating only fast-growing, drought-resistant annual crops (millet, sorghum, cotton, ground- nuts) and prevent cultivating perennial high value tree cropse More demanding -2- crops, such as sugarcane, rice and vegetables could, in fact, only be cul- tivated with irrigation, but the limited rainfall, the high rate of evapor- ation and the countryts topography restrict the possibilities of water storage for it. Dams have been constructed in various valleys and along the Niger River to use the water for irrigation. These projects, however, have proved very costly and have encountered very difficult teclinical and human problems. 5. The natural disadvantages of tlhe country's environment are further accentuated by the growing population pressure, ttie high transport cost and the lack of efficient extension services. First, the rapid population growth has forced a shortening of the fallow period and a general northward move- ment of cultivation into cattle land impoverishing soils which were already far from fertile. A second permanent obstacle towards extending the internal market and stimulating market oriented production is high transportation costs. The high cost of imported goods reduces farmers' real income. High transporta- tion costs also directly reduce the producers' price of export goods and make transportation and communications within the country generally time-consuming and costly. Finally, farmers generally lack the means of production they need to overcome the problems with which they are beset; the soils are so poor that chemical fertilizers and manure are essential, and seasonal labor bottlenecks require the draft equipment for land preparation, ploughing and weeding. This is partly due to the shortage of qualified staff in the agricultural develop- ment services and the lack of coordination between them. 6. Thus, during past years, all these factors have accentuated the natural deficiencies of Niger's land resources and partly explain the in- creasingly critical situation of its agricultural sector. Minerals 7. Uranium mining at Arlit in the North has become the most important single enterprise in the Nigerien economy since operations started in 1970. Until then, only a few minerals, such as cassiterite, gypsum, limestone, silicium dioxyd and gold, had been exploited on a handicraft level. 8. With the help of UNDP, private companies and bilateral aid, the Government has started an active program of mineral research (Annexes 1 and 2). Indications of iron ore, copper, coal, lithium and molydbenite have been found. Further investigations are being made to deternine whether ex- ploiting these resources, which most probably will require cheap transportation and power facilities, will be economically justified. Moreover, there are probably oil deposits close to the Libyan border and in other parts of the cou;1.z-y. In 1970, foreign companies (mainly American) started oil prospect- ing in the whole country, but without any positive resuits until now (Annex 3). While the exploitation of these resources will remain uncertain for the near future, in the next few years, the eventual exploitation of a second uranium deposit, recently discovered near Arlit, at Akokan, will be most promising. Mining there, mostly financed by a Japanese company, is expected to start in 1977. -3- B. Uuman Resources Population and Employment 9. A few large ethnic groups form the bulk of the population: Hausas (about the half), mainly in the center and East; the Djerma-Songai (about one-fifth) along the Niger Valley; and the predominantly nomadic Peulhs, Touraregs and Arabs. The mosaic of different origins is perhaps simpler than in other African countries and thus might give less way to tribalistic tendencies,, The danger, however, is that fewer but larger groups often ethnically - linked to neighboring states - are more powerful centrïfugal forces, which the political organization of a country may not always be able to contain effectively. It is, therefore, certainly a major achieve- ment that Niger's Government and, in particular, its President, have been able to avoid conflîcts in the past and even strengthen national cohesion. 10. Niger's population in 1970 was estimated at 4 million with more than half under 19 years, and about only 7 percent living in urban areas (Annexes 4 - 6). Compared ta other West-African countries, overall popu- lation density is low; it averaged 3.1 persons per square km in 1970. More than 80 percent of Niger's population lives in the South where the average amounts to about 24.8 persans, Moreover, within this area, the regional differences are great and density exceeds 100 persons per square km. various in fertile alluvial valleys. Thus, considering the climatical pedological and conditions of the country, population density is rather high. 1. Annual population growth is estimated at 2.7 percent and has in- creased during recent years as a result of better health conditions and eradication of the endemic diseases. Although a growing population may be a promise for the long-term future, at present and for the near future, it means that half of the people constitute consumers with little earning power rather than producers. It also means serious pressure on available resources land with increased competition for land for grazing and cropping well as for health as and educational outlays. There is already evidence of growing underemployment and unemployment in both rural and urban areas, of migration and to colastal countries. The present difficulties of the country's economy and the few prospects for immediate and rapid growth will probably aggravate these tendencies. The Government is aware of these problems and is trying to accelerate economic development but has not yet considered measures to restrict population growth. 12. Niger's labor force, estimated at 1.9 million in 1969, is mainly engaged in agricultural and pastural activities. Although salaried manpower has almost doubled since independence, îts share represented barely 1.6 per- cent of the country's total labor force in 1969 (Annexes 7 and 8). Since 1964 the rate of increase in employment has been about 59 percent in Government sector the compared wïth 36 percent in the private sector; this points out the growing importance of the public administrative sector as the major source of salaried employment in Niger's economy. Construction ndusttry witlI considerable - yearly fluctuations-stili employs most of the private salaried manpower, followed by servants, industry and commerce. At the end of 1968, -4- almost 38 percent of the labor force in the private sector had no profession- al qualifications. About 23 percent of them were foreigners, 67 percent of whom were Africans (mostly skilled workers from coastal countries) and 33 percent non-Africans (Annex 9). Similar remarks cati be made for public ad- ministration where only a few Niger "cadres" have received higher education and where more than 500 foreign assistants are employed on the central and regional level. This indicates that the Government still excessively de- pends on foreign technical assistance. 13. All this points out one of the most important constraints for development in Niger; namely, the shortage of skilled native manpower in all sectors of its economy. At the same time, however, urban unemployment, mainly among primary and secondary school graduates, has grown sharply since 1966/67, whereas numerous positions in industry and commerce remain empty (Annexes 10 and 11). This distortion of the labor market is partly attrib- utable to the inadequacy of Niger's educational system for the needs of economic and social development. Rural migration and growing unemployment which will result from this distortion may generate social and political tensions and further limit the growth prospects of the economy. Level of Education and Skills 14. The level of education and skills among Niger's population leaves much to be desired. The standard of literacy is among the lowest in French- speaking Africa (about 5 percent). Although school enrollment during the last ten years almost quadrupled, formal educatÏon in Niger is still on a modest scale (Annexes 12 and 13). In 1969/70, only 11.2 percent (81,964) of the children in the relevant age group were enrolled in primary schools. However, as a result of the high dropout and repetition rates, less than 30 percent of those who enter primary school complete the full course; it takes an average of 19 pupil-years to produce a graduate of the six-year primary course. Only a very small proportion of these graduates is admit- ted to secondary education (4,771 - 0.8 percent of the age grollp), yet the proportion of dropouts is very high and the number of repeaters consider- able (Annexes 14 and 15). Out of 1,000 children who enter primary school, only 283 graduate and only 42 are admitted into secondary schools, 40 of whom choose general education. Only 20 of these graduate from the first cycle of secondary education, 8 are admitted to the second cycle and one or two will get the Baccalaureat. 15. These deficiencies explain the high cost of the present education system; the cost of a pupil-year in the primary is half the GDP per capita (about $45), the cost of a primary school graduate is about 9 times the GDP per capita and the average year secondary pupil cost is about 280 dollars, or three times the GDP per capita. Despite the low efficiency of this sys- tem, many primary school leavers cannot find meaningful employment, and it will be increasingly difficult for lower secondary school graduates (gener- ail education) to f ind jobs. At the same time, the annual number of "bache- liers" and vocationally trained pupils is too small for the needs of the country. -5- 16. Vocational training and higher education are still inadequate to meet the requirements for skilled labor. Present vocational training facil- ities for semi-skilled workers in Niamey (Centre de Formation et Perfec- tionnement Professionel) and in Maradi (Lycee technique et College d'enseignement technique) for primary and high school leavers (BEPC) are insufficiently equipped and understaffed, and enrollment is very low. In 1969/70, for instance, only 137 students were enrolled at the "Lycee Tech- nique"; from lack of trainïng facilities, only 50 out of 100 appiïcants were accepted for the same year. Simllar remarks can be made for agricul- tural training, including animal husbandry. Enrollment in 1969/70 at the "Institut Pratique de Developpement Rural" at Kolo, the only institute which provides agricultural training to high school leavers (first grade of secondary educetion), was only 130 pupils, representing a ratio of 1 to 28,000 rural inhabitants. 17. Higher education is not yet provided ïn Niger, but as a response to the expulsion of Nigerien students from several other African universi- ties, the Government has recently decided to establish its own university. The total number of Nigerien students, 204 in 1968 (Annex 16), has varied little over the past few years. Practically all of them receive scholar- ships and pursue their studies in French or other European universities. The "Commissariat General au Developpement" (CCD) is planning the distribu- tion of students by discipline to gradually replace the present staff under technical assistance. 18. Education in Niger, as in many African countries, suffers from the serious shortcomings of an imported educatîon system. It is patterned after the French model and courses are taught in French. The quality of teachers is low (Annex 17), and education programs and teaching materials are poorly related to the child's largely rural environment. As a result, education is unrelated to the oral and rural culture of Niger and highly irrelevant to the economic realities and the pupils' employment prospects. It is, therefore, partly responsible for the growing rural emigration of school leavers, and thus hampers the future development of the country's most important economic sector. This migration is further encouraged by the prevailing opinion in the traditïonal rural society that a school graduate is qualified for white-collar employment in public administration. This underlines the necessity to provide adequate education to the village community as a whole. It remains questionable, therefore, whether the present education system has made a net contribution to the country's economy despite the important financial resources, both internal and external, devoted to it (Annexes 18 - 20). 19. During past years, the Niger Government has tried to set up adult education programs. Besides the agricultural extension services, there are now three programs: "rural animation", the cooperative program and the func- tional literacy campaign. The common characteristic of these programs is that their education aspects and contents are always linked to economic and social needs of the individual f armer and the village community. The main purpose of "rural animation" ïs to stimulate the rural population's interest to improve housing conditions, health habits, agricultural production and - 6- community attitudes. For these last two aspects it has worked closely with the cooperative program under the "Union Nigerienne de Credit et de Coopera- tion" to establish rural cooperatives for productioni and marlceting. This program was quite successful. ILn 1969, there were 164 cooperatives with about 69,627 members (Annex 21). To îinprove the functioning of these co- operatives and to make them the basic developmer;t units in Niger's agricul- tural sector, the recently created functional literacy program provides a number of courses whose content is directly related to everyday problems of the cooperatives. Rudimentary traïning in arithmetic, writing, accounting, weighing and new productioni techniques ïs given în the native language (Houssa-Djerma) to representatives of cooperatives. 20. Until now the scope of these programas has remained limited due to financial constraînts and staffîng problems. Both coordination between them and the technical extension services and their integration into effec- tive agricultural development schemes stîll. has to be improved. However, the first results of these attempts to provide adult education have been encouraging and their pursuit seems to be the most promising means to open rural society to modern techniquec and innovation, and to improve the general level of skills and, thus, the quality o2 Niger's human resources. C. Government and Polîcies 21. Since independdnce, the political situation has remained remark- ably stable thanks to President Diori Hamanî who was reelected in 1970 for his third 5-year term. Although the single party, "Parti Progressiste Ni- gerien - Rassemblement Democratique Africain" is represented in almost all parts of the country, ït is9 in fact, the personality of the President that has succeeded in keeping the different ethnic groups together and in moderat- ing divergent political tendencies. 22. Niger's land-locked position makes it really vital for it to main- tain good relations with its inmmediate neighbors and witb the rest of the world. President Diori Hamani has consistently maintained good relations with France. Wîth regard to the European Economic Con-I!.unity, Niger's Presi- dent has become a powerful spokesman of the African ast oc!.ated countries. Thuis he has greatly contributed to the renewal of the Yacunde convention in 1969. Consultation wiîth the Entente countr4ies (Ivory Coast, Upper Volta, Togo and Dahomey) remains close and has recently resulted in the setting up of an Economie Community for Meat and Livestock which, if effective, could greatly benefit Niger. 23. The Government is presently givin g special attention to relations with Nigeria, the irmportance of which was emphîasize& during the civil war. After two recerit meetings, the Presidents of Niger an, N4igeria have decided to set up a permanent Niger-!lîgeria Com;Thsiet to prepa-re proposals for close cooperation. This cooperation and a further organized and rational integra- tion of both economies seems to be the .n.^zst soC iîd basi Ê for the country's long-term development prospects. In 1îx efforts tzo diversify its relations with neighboring states, Niger has also tried to doserlstabl1sh cooperation - 7 - with Libya; in the immediate future, it hopes to export its meat products and, in the long-term , to eventually find an additional access to the sea (for petroleum, for instance, if discovered in Niger). 24. Economic policy has been determined by successive attempts to de- termine the right doctrine to follow. The implementation of the first four year plan (1965-1968) which was supposed to represent the means to carry out the first half of the "Perspectives Decennales" (1965-1974) encountered con- siderable difficulties. Since 1967 the Government has therefore adopted a system of rolling four year plans for public investment, the budget, train- ing activities and technical assistance. Targets have now become more real- istic and the means to fulfill them have been spelled out more precisely. This has given greater flexibility and control to Niger's planning system. 25. More important than the methods and the techniques of the Govern- ment' s economic policies is the quality of the public administration that has to carry them out. In fact, public administration in Niger is not yet adapted to the requirements of an efficient economic policy. But, creating a dynamic administrative machinery in a country where only a few hundred people have any secondary education is a formidable enterprise. Its achieve- ment will, however, to a large extent determine Niger's social and economic development. 26. Thus, nature and increasing human and social problems handicap Niger's development. These are the constraints, but also the challenges to which the Government and the people of Niger endeavor ta respond in a spirit of determination and realism. 8- II. THE PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY - THE DIFFICULT PATH TOWARDS GROWTHI 27. Overall, the past decade has been one of slow structural changes in Niger's economy-, one of very moderate growth in the production of goods and services, and one in which fundamental difficulties in both public finance and external trade have been reduced, but not solved, Public foreign aid and technical assistance remain essential to keep Niger's publie administration and economy working. The country has remained basically an agricultural economy, with 90 percent of the population engaged in rural ac- tivities and about 60 percent of GDP originating in agriculture (including livestock). Hence, progress in this sector, or the lack of it, constitutes the most meaningful indicator of the overall growth of Niger's economy. A. Recent Developments in Production and Income 28. Available indications for 1960 to 1966 show that overall growth and per capita income increased substantially (about 2 percent per capita), mainly as a result of extending groundnut and cotton production and of setting up various industrial enterprises. In contrast, since then, the economic performance has been unfavorable largely because agrîcultural production (including livestock) has tended to declïne. In the absence of official national accounts the mission tried to estimate the GDP growth during the period 1966-1969 on the basis of partial indicators and informa- tions provided by the Government (Annex 22). GDP (Origin) (In millions of CFA francs at current prices) 1966 1967 1968 1969 Annual increase 1. Agriculture 31,814 30,708 28,287 32,788 1 2. Livestock 16,937 17,678 16,807 10,814 -14.0 3. Hunting 348 410 420 485 11.0 4. Forestry 3,940 4,448 4,811 5,597 12.4 5. Fisheries 766 863 862 898 5.4 6. Mining 36 34 118 103 42.0 7. Industries 5,419 5,610 5,814 5,893 2.8 8. Services 17,980 18,201 15,853 17,183 -1.5 9. Energy 4,606 5,020 5,800 6,600 12.7 10. Construction 4,247 4,100 5,607 9,027 28.5 11. Administration 4,634 5,097 5,400 5,562 6.3 12. Household 200 205 210 216 2.6 GDP Total 90,927 92,374 89,989 95,166 1.5 GDP per capita 25,200 24,345 $90 $88 -9 - After the slight recovery of Nigerts economy in 1969, it is likely that GDP in 1970 fell again because of a new drop in agricultural output and a general slump in trade and construction activities. Thus, although the above figures constitute only rough estimates, one can conclude wlth a fair degree of cer- tainty that during the last five years the income situation of Niger1 s popu- lation deteriorated, reflecting the general critical situation of Niger's economy at the beginning of its second development decade. Agriculture 29. During the years 1965/66-1970/71, the country suffered from adverse weather conditions that caused a general decline in agricultur.A production (Annex 23). At the beginning of the last decade and in normal rainfall years, food production (mainly millet and sorghum, occupyîng 90 percent of cultivated area) exceeded the normal demand of the population. But recently, it has shown increasing difficulties in keeping pace with the rapid population growth. Surpluses for exports have declined and in 1968/69 -- as a result of a heavy drought--Niger had to import basic food- stuffs (sorghum) to avert a famine in various parts of the country. Imports of other foodstuff, such as wheat, sugar and rice, reflect mainly the grow- ing demand of the urban population and the country's difficulties in diver- sifying its foodstuff production. (Annex 24) 30. Production techniques have remained traditional and little has been done to improve them; hence, growth has principally been achieved by increasing cultivated acreage rather than by increasing productivity. More- over, the shortage of foodstuff has led to a growing substitution of land under groundnut cultivation in favor of millet and sorghum production. 31. The mos t important index of the present critical economic situa- tion is the sharp drop in groundnut production from 298,000 tons in 1967/68 to 130,000 tons in 1970/71. This decline is all the more severe since ground- nuts are the most important single cash crop for Niger's farmers, and have been, up to the present, the largest single source of recorded exports (63 percent in 1969). Groundnut exports, however, have decreased less than groundnut production due to deliveries from Nigeria that are stimulated by the favorable unofficial exchange rate between Niger's CFA francs and Nigerian pounds (Annex 25). 32. This sharp drop in groundnut production is attributable not only to unfavorable weather concditions but, also, to a certain extent, to an inadequate Government price policy, to the deficiencies in the agricul- tural development institutions and to the interplay of all these factors. Producer prices for groundnuts were drastically reduced following both the end of the FED price support program in 1967/68 and their adjustment to world market prices (Annex 26). Although world market conditions markedly improved during recent years, producer prices were not increased enough to dissuade farmers from moving out of groundnut and into staple food pro- duction in the attempt to rebuild their food stocks after the poor harvest of 1968/69. The Government has, in fact, f ollowed a cautious policy with regard to producers' prices to establish reserves upon termination of the FED financed price support program. - 10 Increase 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 67/68-70/71 Producer prices (CFAF) 22.81 22.75 18.04 17.83 20.00 21.00 16% World market prices (CFAF cif European Port) 46.45 39.50 38.70 45.44 52.47 54.00 39% 33. The precarious.groundnut production is also explained by the low level of production techniques. Although attempts have been made to improve tne skills of farmers, productivity schemes, mostly financed by FED, have had only a negligible effect on production (Annex 27). This is mainly due to the very limited financial and geographic scope of these schemes, to the lack of coordination between agricultural development institutions (Ministry of Agriculture, UNCC 1/ and CGD 2/) and to the premature introduction of dif- ficult and expensive production techniques and inputs. These deficiencies and the increasingly difficult financial situation of the farmers have re- sulted in stagnating sales of modern farm inputs, such as fertilizer and pesticides, and in a disruption of the selected seed program (Annex 28). 34. Cotton has become Niger's second cash crop (5 percent of recorded exports in 1969), and presents the most important effort toward diversifying the country's predominantly groundnut economy. While production figures in- dicate a rapid growth from 1956 to 1964, more recent figures show a stagnat- ing trend between 6,000 and 8,000 tons with wide annual variations mainly due to climate (Annex 29). In fact, Niger's climate and soil are only mar- ginally suitable for cotton production, and its cultivation is mainly confined to scattered depressions with favorable ecological and hydrological condi- tions. For reasons similar to those that lowered groundnut prices, cotton prices have been reduced since 1966/67. They increased slightly in 1970/71 following the improvement of cotton world market conditions (Annex 30). CFDT's 3/ introduction of modern production techniques has remained limited; production has mainly been increased by extending cultivated areas. 35. Thus, during the last decade, the overall growth of agricultural production has mainly been achieved through increase in the cultivable land with the deteriorating effects on soils described in the previous chapter. 1/ Union Nigerienne de Credit et de Cooperation. 2/ Com issariat General au Deve1oppement, 3/ Compagnie Francaise pour le Developpement des Fibres Textiles. 36. The wide fluctuations of agricultural output have seriously affected the income of Niger's rural population during recent years. Current and Real Incaome oL Farmers Increase p.a. 1966 1967 1968 1969 1966-69 Current prices Total agricultural product (billion of CFAF) 31.814 30.708 28.287 32.788 1% Income per capita 12.074 11.361 10.194 11.521 -1.6% (Monetary income) /- (1.643) (1.689) (1.230) (1.156) -11.0% In 1969 prices Total agricultural product (billion of CFAF) 28.122 32.420 28.484 32.788 5.2% Income per capita 10.672 11.994 10.265 11.521 2.6% (Monetary income) /1 (1.512) (1.511) (1.373) (1.156) -8.6% /1 The monetary income of f armers is underestirnated since it is based only on groundnut and cotton production. Farmers also sell a small part (about 10 percent) of their foodcrops, some garden produce and small animals. These figures, however, clearly indicate the declining trend of farmers' cash income. Source: Provisional Government Estimates (Annexes 31-32). Above estimates indicate that while farmers' current annual income dropped by 1.5 percent, it remained positive in real terms (2.6 percent p.a.). This is explained by the sharp increase of fooderop production in 1969, as a result of generally favorable climatic conditions and farmers' reaction to the 1968 drought. Both calculations show, however, that farmers' cash income has sharply declined due mainly to the considerable drop of ground- nut production. In 1970/71 agricultural output was again affected by adverse weather conditions and prelimary estimates reveal that production fell under the 1965/66 level. Considering the 1970/71 figures, it can be concluded during that the last five years the overall situation of the average Niger farmer has worsened and that, in particular, the monetized-modern part of Niger's rural economy has constantly regressed. - 12 - 37. Farmer's cash incomes have further been reduced by the increase of the general tax burden. Since 1960, Government revenue has increased 8 per- cent annually, or almost twice as much as the estimated overall growth rate of Niger's economy. Level of Capitation Taxes Paid by Farmers in Three Important Districts Annual growth rate 1960 1965 1970 1960/7`0 Districts Dosso IMF /1 400 630 875 TA /2 175 330 350 575 960 1,225 7.3% Madaoua IMF 350 605 950 TA 150 330 350 500 935 1,300 10% Magaria IMF 580 750 1,000 TA 150 305 350 11% /1 Minimum fiscal tax /2 District tax Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs. As can readily be seen from the above table direct taxes levied on farmers income more than doubled during the last decade and increased by about 30 percent during the last five years. Since during the same period (1965-70) farmer 's cash income declined, the tax burden of Niger's rural population drastically increased. 38. Moreover, the purchasing power of the rural population has been affected by the rising cost of living particularly after the last devalua- tion of the French franc in 1969. -13 - 1960 1965 1970 (2nd trimester) Salt (kg) 25 38 50 Sugar (kg) 80 80 80 Textile (m) 70 70 96 Gasoline (liter) 32.5 40 50 Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs. At the same time, farm input prices have risen since FED subsidies were dis- continued. This applies mainly to fertilizers whose prices now vary from CFAF 20 to 30 per kg as compared to CFAF 18 to 24 in 1969/70. The same also true for is pesticides and implements. This dramatic income squeeze Niger's farmers of will not only deter them from using more modern agricultural inputs, but also constitute a major psychological constraint for the recovery and the future growth prospects of Niger's agricultural sector. Lives to ck 39. Livestock raising, whîch employs about 20 percent of the total pop- ulation, is in a situation similar to that of agriculture (Annex 33). of this sector, Growth which, in 1966, accounted for about 18 percent of GDP about 13 percent and of recorded exports, was seriously affected by drought in 1968/69. The loss incurred by breeders has been estimated at 10 (CFAF 4.7 billion) percent of the total value of Niger's livestock population nexes (An- 34 and 35). At the same time, the war in Nigeria considerably demand for cattle reduced exports towards Niger's most important market (85 percent of exports) and caused a substantial fall in cattle prices. in prices Thus, the drop and capital losses have created a difficult situation oxwners. for livestock This situation has further been aggravated by their cattle need to sell at any price to meet their current expenditures, principally taxes and subsistence for crops. Although production and exports slightly covered in 1970/71, re- it will take some years to remedy the adverse effects of the drought (Annex 36). 40. The value of livestock production sharply declined (40 percent) during the 1966-69 period because of drought and the decreased experts to Nigeria. The number of cattle raisers is controversial but reasonable es- timates show that some 18 percent of the population may be nomadic herders who produceŽ 80 percent of Niger's livestock production. The remainder of production is attributable to settled farmers who keep small animals, such as goats and poultry. - 14 - Mission Estimates of Livestock Production and Income (Current prices) Annual growth rate 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 % Total production 16,940 17,680 16,810 10,815 16,000 -1.4 (CFAF million) Rural population '1000 3 370 3,460 3,550 3,650 3,750 +2.2 Income per capita (CFAF) 5,025 5,110 4,735 2,960 4,265 -4.0 Per capita income of herders 19,360 19,700 18,325 11,400 16,410 -4.0 Per capita income of settled farmers 1,270 1,290 1,195 748 1,077 -4.0 Annual growth of total production 100 104 97 64 94 Although the above figures represent only rough estimates, they clearly indicate the effects of the 1968/69 difficulties on the income of livestock owners. If the value of consumption by livestock owners is deducted, cash income in normal years varies between CFAF 600 and 12,000 according to the different categorîes of producers (settled farmers or nomadic herders). In 1969, cash income of livestock raisers fell more than their total income since it is likely that their personal milk and meat consumption was less affected by the drought and the Nigerian events than their livestock sales. Livestock production slightly recovered in 1970 mainly as a result of the normalization of exports to Nigeria. 41. Taxes on livestock production amount to about CFAF 1 billion, or 10 percent of Niger's current budget (Annex 37). This rate of taxation is considered rather high, particularly after this difficult period of drought. It is likely, therefore, that the prevailing system has encouraged both the evasion of the direct cattle tax and the already important livestock smuggl- ing into Nigeria. Thus, it will constitute a serious handicap in modernizing tlhe traditional commercial circuit, mainly the export of refrigerated meat products. - 15 - 42. Livestock raising is still practiced along traditional lines, mostiy by nomadic herdsmen but also by some settled farmers (mainly goats and poultry). Farmers' cattle is generally entrusted to herdsmen (Peuhl) since a full integration - besides ln some places nearby towns - between agriculture and livestock raising has not yet been achieved. 43. The Government has been pursuing an active program for livestock improvement. The vaccination program against rinderpest, which began in 1963 with FED assistance, has worked well. FED and FAC also financed a well digging program to provide water for nomadic herding. This program has, however, created problems of overgrazing in the vicinity of these stations since herders tend to concentrate their livestock near them. So far these programs have had only a limited impact on the improvement of livestock; growth in this sector during the last decade has mainly been obtained by an increase in numbers and a more intensive exploitation of livestock rather than by an increase in productivity per unit. This has led to overgrazing in some areas and, together with the northward movement of agriculture, to growing competition and conflicts between herders and farmers. The result is that cattle ir being driven out of the traditional sahelian grazing zone. However cattle raising is the only mearLs to use these zones profitably, since cultivation of their precarious soils has led to their rapid destruction. 44. The Government has also tried to modernize livestock by creatïng fattening ranches. A first ranching scheme to supply high quality animals to the Niamey slaughter-house was started in 1967 and was aimed at exporting meat to coastal countries. The management of this ranch has encountered difficulties and it is presently exploited at only 25 percent of its capacity. Exports of refrigerated meat to coastal countries (imainly Ivory Coast) has risen steadily and ls likely to reach 1,000 tons in 1971/72 (Annex 38). Industry and Mining 45. The industrial sector contributes little to GDP. Prior to 1958, industrial activity was negligible, and only after independence in 1960 was industrialization accelerated. The Government's polîcy of encouraging ln- dustrïalization has led to establishïng numerous mixed enterprises (more than 50 percent of capital owned by the Government) as well as prîvate f irms under the country's favorable Investment Code (Annex 39-40). Thus, in 1966, the industrial contribution to GDP had risen to about i1 percent. But it appears that growth of the sector has slowed down since then; industrial growth has been affected, in general, by the declîne of rural income and, in particular, by the variations în construction activities. These activi- ties reached a peak in 1969/70 with the completion of the citv of Arlit and the Kennedy bridge in Nîamey, but dropped at the beginning of this year because of the lack of new public investment projects. The textile mill, NITEX -- Nïger's most important industrial enterprise set up during recent years -- has suffered from the country s depressed market conditions. This explains to a large extent why this mill has been operating below capacity, - 16 46. Besides these conjuctural aspects, the development of the industrial sector is handicapped by varlous structural constraints. Various industries suffer from both the heavy competition of imports from Nigeria and the high transportation costs. Both factors reduce the domestic market for Niger's products considerably. Part of this market is increasingly dominated by Nigerian export products which are generally less expensive because of greater internal economies of its factories and cheaper transportation cost (railway). To these handicaps must also be added the recent increase in unofficial imports from Nïgeria. 47. Furthermore, important state-owned enterprises have encczatered difficulties in breaking-even or have incurred heavy losses, mostly due to initial miscunception and to a lack both of management skills and ex- perience and of efficient Government control. This has led to increased Government subsidization of this sector. Considering these various prob- lems, it remaîns questionable whether viable nationally-oriented industries (mainly for import substitution) can be set up within Niger's particular geographic structure and whether the continued subsidizatïon of various mixed enterprises and the setting up of new ones should be encouraged. 48. Until recently, mining in Niger has been limited mainly to exploit- ing cassiterite deposits in the Air region end to gathering gypsum for the Malbaza cement factory (Annex 41). The exploitation of the country's uranium deposits at Arlit began in early 1971. Uranium production (SOMAIR) will prob- ably amount to about 750 tons in 1971 before reaching full capacity in 1975 (1,500 tons). Services 49. It is the sector of services, including transportation, which has shown the highest rate of growth during the first half of the last decade. Its share in GDP accounted for 20 percent in 1966. The growth of this sector can be linked to the gradual "monetization" of the economy. It is estimated that in 1956 the non-marketed production was well over 50 percent of GDP; whereas in 1966, it was around 40 percent. 50. The development of services is more particularly dependent upon the growth of external trade, both exports and imports, which has been a major characteristic of the period. Foreign trade activities, more than doubled in the years 1961/66, but then declined before they slightly re- covered in 1969/70. However, commercial activities again declined, re- flecting the revival of Nigeria's economy, which has slowed down unrecorded re-export of Niger's products to that country. Thus, at the beginning of this year, commercial enterprises were left with considerable stocks (mainly textiles) and little prospects for recovery in the immediate future. 51. Before independence, trade and transport activities were largely in the hands of foreign fîrms, mostly French and Lebanese. Since 1962, a number of semipublic agencies have taken over part of these activities (Annex 42). While most of these companies have been making a profit partly explained by their monopoly rights on the trading and transport of important - 17 - products, the Covernment's attempt to set up its own general trading company (COPRO-NIGER) has failed (Annex 43). COPRO-NIGER's original function was to maintain the stability of food prices in the country and to opezrate as both a wholesaler and a retailer in rural areas. Its disappointing finan- cial performance and management prompted the Government to close down most of the small retail operations in rural areas and to give it monopoly rights over a number of important commoditi es constituting about 20 percent of Niger's total imports. This new function has completely changed the character of COPRO-NIGER; now all of its business consists of importing on consignment for the private wholesalers, who formerly imported on their own behalf. Ai- though the justification of this new role of intermediary remains debatable it allows COPRO-NIGER to recover past losses, while enabling the Government to acquire a better and a more direct knowledge of commercial profit margins. 52. Governmentts contribution to GDP grew steadily during the decade. last Similar to other services, it grew more rapidly during the first half due to the structural change which took place in that period as the Nigeriens progressively took over Government functions from the French. Since 1966, salaries of public officials have increased by 6.1 percent per year, mainly because of the increase in the number of Government employees. Public salary and wage rates however have remained unchanged since 1962. Income Distribution 53. The' wage bill in national income is small 1/ (see paragraph 12) considering that only 1.6 percent of the country's labor force are wage earners. From July 1962 to October 1969, minimum wage rates (SMIG) 2/ re- mained unchanged at CFAF 27 per hour for non-agricultural workers. Since then, due to the continued increase in the cost of living, SMIG has been raised to CFAF 30; yet it still remains among the lowest in the West African countries (Arinex 44). Although public wages and salaries have been frozen sInce 1962, actual salaries have been increased through the usual advances and promotions; this is also true for the more skilled personnel in the private sector. 54. Des pite the recent adjustment of the private salaries, they remain considerably lower -- mainly for unskilled and skilled labor -- than those in public administration. For instance, in the public sector, a primary school graduate will earn CFAF 17,600 as an unskilled clerk, whereas in a private comnpany, he will receive only CFAF 10,954 - but only after two years of professional training. These disparities explain the continued transfer of skilled labor (masons, carpenters, etc.) to the Government sector to join the already inflated category of the underworked low grade employees. This 1/ Latest available figures indicate 14.5 percent of national income in 1964, 2/ Salaire Minimum Interprofessionel Garanti. - 18 - white-collar bias hurts not only the quality and efficieincy of public admin- istration but also the Government's effort to foster professional training and industrialization of the country. 55. Similar to other African countries, the average nominal income of the wage earner is much higher than that of the rest of the population. The difference in real terms, however, is not s0 great as appears from the sta- tistics; one of the reasons, common throughout Africa, is that generally the wage of one employee helps maintain a much larger number of people than does the income of, say, the typical peasant. In Niger's case, however, it is likely that during recent years the real income of the rural population has been more affected by adverse weather conditions and price and tax increases than has that of wage earners. The general increase in retail prices, how- ever, has also reduced the purchasing power of wage earners. Between 1965 and 1970, the index of these prices rose 24 percent for the European and 19 percent for the African consumer, reflecting the general increase in prices of imported and local consumer goods, as well as the impact of heavier taxa- tion (Annexes 45 and 46). Thus the increase in real salaries - if not an outright stagnation - has definitely been a modest one. Nevertheless, wage earners obviously remain a pr-ivileged group. It is likely, therefore, that the consequences of Nlger's recent economic difficulties have not been equally distributed and that most probably the gap between the modern-urban sector and the traditional rural sector has widened. B. Factors of Growth 56. In an economy such as Niger's, there are three main sources of growth: agriculture production (including livestock) for the home market, agricultural exports, and public and private capital inflows. 57. Most agricultural output is produced for the consumption needs of the farmers themselves. As shown previously, agricultural production has grown mainly as a result of current inputs of non-wage labor plus traditional investments in the form of land clearance. Modernization of agriculture has taken place in the sense that a growing proportion of output has been marketed, more by expanding the official marketing network than by using modern farm inputs which have had only a limited effect on agricultural production. Modern investment with a direct impact upon agriculture has mainly been confined to irrigation projects, most of them small, for a total area of some 2,034 ha, an insignificant proportion of the total area under cultiva- tion. Until now these projects have contributed very little to total physical production and had very modest economic returns, if anyy. 58. During the period 1966/67 - 1970/71, agricultural production (in- cl-uding iLvestock) hlas maainly been deter-mined uy adverse weather conditions, resulting not only in a decline in overall production but also in a clear substitution of food crops for export crops. At the same time, livestock exports have further been affected by the events in Nigeria. Thus, total export earnings of Niger's agricultural products stagnated, and only exog- enous factors - favorable world market conditions for groundnuts and unof- ficial groundnut imports from Nigeria - explain why they have not further declined. - 19 - 59. The inflow of private and public externul resources lias been by far the main source of financing of modern investînent. Its major role has been to provide the basic infrastructure facilities: first roads and, sec- ondly power, water supplies and social facilities. Capital inflow lias had its most beneficial effects in permitting the transportation of increased amounts of marketed products, but its contribution to the financing of di- rectly productive capacity has been very small. Apart fronm irrigation schemes in agriculture, foreign capital has financed only a few oil mills, other small processing factories, commercial buildings and transport vehicles. Although recently important industrial ventures, namely, the textile mill at Niamey and the uranium mine at Arlit, have been set up, their exploita- tion has not yet fully started. Finally, the growing commercial and other service industries require comparatively little capital. Thus, in spite of an annual increase of 10.6 percent in public investment expenditures, Niger's economy as a whlole has encountered considerable difficulties in growing and its per capita inzome has declined. GDP - Public Investment Expenditures (CFAF billion) 1966/69 1966 1967 1968 1969 Annual % rate GDP 90.9 92.4 90.0 95.2 1.5 Public Investment 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.6 10.6 This points out that the relation between investment and growth is far from direct in Niger's circumstances; weather and external influences, to mention only two, are important and unpredictable factors, reflecting both the pre- cariousness and the dependency of its economy. C. Financial developments 60. The general conditions of equilibrium in public finance, money and external payments have only slîghtly changed during the last decade. Although the amount of administrative expenditures încurred by France in Niger has diminished, French contributions to the budget have not ended. The monetary arrangements are characterized, today as earlier, by both their regional nature and the still existing close links with France. The role of extern- al aid, even if its origin has changed with the growing importance of FEI) and Canada, has remained vital. Public finance Current Budget 61. Despite unavoidable increases of current expenditures in the years immediately after independence, Niger's budgetary situation showed consider- able improvement during the early Sixties. This was achieved by the marked expansion of current revenues due to increases in both direct and indirect - 20 - taxation. Despite these efforts, current surpluses remained difficult to obtain. As a result of Niger's recent economic difficulties, the growth rate of Government revenues slowed down to an average annual rate of 6.5 percent during the years 1965/66 - 1969/70. During the same period, however, Government outlays continued to rise by 7.5 percent annually. Thus, Niger' s budgetary situation came under considerable pressure and its treasury posi- tion deteriorated (Annexes 47 and 48). Over-all Cash Transactions of the Covernment 1966/67-1 969/70 (In millions of CFAF francs) Annual Growth 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 65/68-69/70 Budgetary savings 1,056 71 938 -227 991 - Current revenues 8,507 8,644 9,342 9,142 10,941 6.5 Current expenditures -7,451 -8,573 -8,404 -9,369 -9,950 7.5 Investment budget expenditures -888 -899 -961 -627 -936 1.3 Extrabudgetary transactions (net) /1 -168 -62 -124 -263 -355 20.5 Over-all deficit - -890 -147 -1,117 -300 - /1 Mainly Road and Pension Funds. Source: Data provided by the Niger authorities. 62. The Governriient's fiscal perforliance during this period was mainly affected by the consequences of the 1968 bad weather conditions. In fact, for the first time in itany years, total current revenues declined by 2.1 percent in FY68/69. They fell largely because the collection of the mini- mum fiscal tax and the cattle tax fell due to the drop in money income of the rural population and the loss of livestock. For the same reason, rev- enues from import and export duties also fell. However, as a result of the revival of economic activity in 1969/70, re.venues rose markedly by about 20 percer* to CFAF 10.9 billion (Annex 49), 63. Tax proceeds are over 90 percent of total Covernment revenues. Taxes and duties en external trade - mostly imports - declined from 48 per- cent of total revenues in 1965/66 to 41 percent in 1969/70. These are rela- tively low figures in the African context, while direct taxes, mainly the poll and cattle taxes, are relatively important. Direct tax receipts in- creased from 36 percent of total revenues in 1965/66 to 38 percent in 1969/ 70. The relatively low contribution from customs receipts is explained by the fact that the Government has found it difficult to increase tax rates on external trade since this necessarily means either lower producer prices for exports, or higher prices for imported goods, which, because of the coun- try's location are already high. Moreover, higher tariffs would almost cer- tainly lead to increased smuggling from Nigeria. -21 - 64. The overall taxation rate has increased from 9.5 percent of GDP in 1966 to 11.4 percent in 1969. GDP - Government revenues (CFAF billion) 1966 1967 1968 1969 1966-69 % p.a. GDP 90.9 92.4 90.0 95.2 1.5 Current Government revenues 8.6 9.3 9.1 10.9 8.0 Revenue!(percent) GDP 9.5 10.0 10.1 11.4 Although even the 1969 proportion is low by international standards, it must be appraised in the light of both the very low average income per capita and the fact that, in 1969, non-monetary income was still only about 40 percent of total GDP. Thus, as a result of Nigerls recent economic difficulties and further Government measures to raise additional revenue, the overall tax bur- den has increased sharply during past years. 65. Current expenditures rose yearly by 7.5 percent during the period 1965/66-1969/70 resulting in a current deficit of about CFAF 0.2 billion compared with a surplus of CFAF 0.9 billion in 1967/68. In 1969/70, how- ever, ordinary budget expenditures increased only by 6 percent to CFAF 9.9 billion and thanks to the simultaneous marked improvement of fiscal receipts, the budget again showed a surplus of nearly CFAF 1 billion (Annex 50). 66. The share of wages and salaries, whose absolute value rose by 6 percent per year during 1965/66-1969/70, slightly declined from 50 percent to 47 percent. Contrary to many other West African countries, the propor- tion of expenditure on personnel is less important as a result of the Gov- ernment's efforts to keep salaries low and to follow a relatively cautious policy in recruiting new staff. 1/ During recent years, expenditures for materials and supplies, have decreased in both relative and absolute value. HIence, supplies for key government services, such as agriculture, livestock and education, have been short and maintenance expenditures on roads, build- ings and other public investments, are inadequate. It is, therefore, ques- tionable whether budget "savings" mentioned above are real, because they have, to somne extent, been realized at the expense of necessary maintenance and cur- rent supplies. It is likely that these budget savings have helped finance "maintenance" rather than investment expenditures under the "investment budget". 67. The cost of servicing public debt increased from CFAF 263 miilion in 1965/66 to CFAF 315 million in 1969/70. mainly because of a sharp increase in internal deht. In 1968/69, to liquidate payment arrears, the Government amnortized one-third of the treasury bonds (CFAF 345 million) issued in 1968. 1/ The percentage of personnel expenditures in Mauritania is 56 percent, in Senegal 50 percent, in Mali 59 percent, in Upper Volta 57 percent and in Dahomey 61 percent. - 22 - These bonds are expected to be fully amortized by the end of September 1971. Despite this increase, public debt payments represented only 4 percent of total current expenditures in 1969/70 as against 3.5 percent in 1965/66. 68. The Government has tried to keep general administrative expendi- tures low. Outlays on social and economic services have increased sharply since 1965/66, reflecting the importance the Government has been giving to these services. However, social expenditures in 1969/70 still remained lower than those in other West African countries, a reflection of the still low rate of primary school attendance in Niger. Although the share of outlays for eco- nomic services, i.e., the department of rural economy and the public works increased from 12 percent in 1965/66 to 16 percent in 1969/70, it still rep- resents a modest proportion considering the overwhelming importance of these two sectors in the economy and in the investment program. Investment budget 69. In contrast to the sharp ïncrease of current budget expenditures (33 percent), the investment budget rose by only 5 percent, from CFAF 808 million in 1965/66 to CFAF 936 million in 1969/70, and sharply dropped to CFAF 627 million in 1968/69. The distribution of the budget investment shows that most of the expenditures (60 percent) was directed toward financing small operations in social, economic and administrative infrastructure while the remainder was spent on capital participations, agriculture and preinvestment studies. As a result of the difficult overall budget situation, the contrib- ution of budgetary savings to financing investment outlays declined. These expenditures were, therefore, increasingly financed by both foreign grants and loans, mainly from French FAC and Caisse Centrale, and Treasury Funds. The substantial foreign funds made avail.able for specific projects are not included in the investment budget. Treasury Position 70. In the years 1965/66-1969/70, the overall Treasury defic-t fLluc- tuated between one and ten percent of current revenues. This deficit was financed by French budgetary support, non bank resources, accumulated Gov- ernment deposits and borrowings from the Central Bank (Annex 51). At the same time most of the customary resources of the Treasury, such as funds of public institutions and enterprises, were deposited with the Niger Develop- ment Bank (BDRN) in spite of the recent decree (June 1968) requiring them to deposit at least 25 percent of their cash holdings in the Treasury. The Development Bank, however, unable to find sufficient bankable projects has accumulated important cash balances. The Government ought to consider to what extent it might shif t more resources to the Treasury in order to obtain more liquid resources which could be used as counterpart funds on foreign aid projects and for the financing of projects (social infrastructure, ad- ministrative buildings, etc.) for which foreign aid is normally not available. - 23 - Public authorities and lc1ub enterprises 71. Aside from the Governient budget, the public sector comprises mainly local authorities (Anrcxes 53 and 54), whose consolidated budget represents about 13 percent of the central budget, and a number of public and mixed enterprises. Comprelhensive data on the financial operations of these enterprises are not ilable, but as stated carlier, it appears that a number of them have beeni faced with serious financial difficulties (Annex 55). Except for the CSPPN, SOCNARA, and the BDRN, the most important of them continue to incur considerable deficits. 72. The most successful enterprise has been SONARA, which supervises the marketing of groundnuts and directs its exports with the help of its Paris Office. In fact, due to favorable world market conditions for ground- nuts, its operating profits (Annex 56) increased from CFAF 101 million in 1965/66 to CFAF 1.4 billion 4n 1969/70. These profits have enabled SONARA to make an important contribution to Niger's price stabilization board (CSPPN) (Annex 57), and to increase its deposits wîth the banking system (mainly BDRN). Similar to SO-NARA, the funds of CSPPN, în excess of those necessary for itB operation, have be.en deposîts with BDRN, and both channelled to the Government budget and invested in participations of mixed enterprises (Annex 58). 73. The mixed enterprises, COPRO-NIGER and the SNGTN 1/, have incurred the largest operating deficits. In 1968/69, these losses amounted respec- tively ta CFAF 158 million and CFAF 294 million which have been covered by various public sources (budget, BDRN, CSPPN) and by various financial meaus (tax exemptions, participation, loans). The Governmxent is aware of these problems and has been working - with no great success - toward reducing budgetary subsidies to these enterprises by strengthenîng their capital structure and management and by encouraging them to adop:t sound pricing policies. Despite these efforts, the mixed enterprise sector as a whole has increasingly become a burden on the public budget rather than a source of development f inancing. Monetary and credit policies Institutions 74. Like the fundamental features of the West African Union to which Niger belongs, those of the country's main monetary and financial institu- tions have remained unchanged during recent years. In addition ta the local agency of the "Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest" (BCEAO), these institutions consist of one commercial bank: the Banque Internationale pour l'Afrique Occidentale (BIAO); three development banks: the Banque de Developpement de la Republique du Niger (BDRN), the Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole (CNCA), and the Credit du Niger (CN); and the Postal Check- ing System. The Treasury also performs certain banking operatîons, mainly accepting customs duty bills; and the French Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (CCCE) extends medium- and long-term credit in Niger mainly through financing credit operations of the BDRN and the CN. 1/ Societe Nationale des Grands Travaux du Niger - 24 - 75. Of the four banks operating in Niger, the BDRN is by far the lar- gest in terms of resources and lending operations (Annex 59). During the two-year period ended September 1970, its current and time deposits rose from CFAF 1.9 billion to CFAF 4.2 billion, reflecting the increased deposits of some of its major customers, particularly SONARA and CSPPN; but its total loans and advances increased by only CFAF 1.6 billion to CFAF 3.4 billion. Ilence, there was a marked improvement in its liquidity position in the year 1969/70. These cash balances underline both BDRN's difficulties in finding sufficient investment opportunities and the reason why part of its financial resources have been placed abroad. BDRN is mainly engaged in f inancing coin- niercial activities and only small -- although increasing -- amounts of its funds have been devoted to capital participations and to the extension of medium- and long-term loans, mainly to mixed enterprises. The increased credit demand of these enterprises is partly explained by a lack of long- term funds of their own and growing finanicial difficulties. In September 1970, the Government obtained a loan of CFAF 400 million from BDRN to fi- nance its increased participation in the share capital of UN4CC, CORRO-NIGER, the SNGTN and SNC; 1/ thîs will nmainly allow these enterprises to- cover accu- mulated losses. Thus BDRN's contribution to financing directly productive projects has been limited; it has remained primarily a commercial bank. 76. Similar remarks can be inade for CNCA, which, in 1967, took over UNCC's function of providing credit to farmers. Almost all CNCA loans have beern short-term and have been granted for marketing crops. The share of its loans extended for purchasing modern farum inputs declined from 17.4 percent în 1966/67 to 16.1 percent in 1969/70 with sharp drops during the years in between (Annexes 60 and 61). This relative decline and CNCA's difficulties in recovering its loans, particularly for production inputs, reflects the difficult financial situation of Niger's rural population and the deficien- cies of agricultural extension services. However, only by improving these services and by preparîng effective agricultural development programs will CNCA be able to play a greater robe în f iuancing agricultural development. 77. The other main f inancîia intermiediaries are the Postal Checking system. which received deDosits frora the Drirvate sector and keeps its funds with the local banks, and the Credit du Niger (CN), which provides long-term funds for low-cost housing. Until now, however, most of CN's resources, as CCCEes, have been devoted to financîin' urivate middle-class housing. CN has, in fact, encountered considerabie diLîFiculties in setting up low-cost housing which is still too expensîve for urban low-income groups. 78. Among noni-bank financ±ùl .aerme;iaries, the most important is the price stébi1ïzat-.on boar-c (CSPPN), which through its increased deposits - together with those of other publ4C instît utions - has contributed to the retltîve financial "eas&e' of Niger's bsnk½g system. 79. Wiîin this general 'in-itur framework, Niger's banking sys- tein was able to increase credits o tlic er ononùy by almost 100 percent be- tween 1962 and 1967. Sinice then, rî;evzr, credit operations have remained 1/ Societe Nationale de Cimenterie - 25 - stagnant since the rate of increase of total bank lending to the sector slowed private down while the Government's net creditor position with the banking system improved markedly. Factors Affecting Money Sul. 1965/66-1969/70 /i (In millions of CFA francs) 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 Foreign assets (net) -277 48 -4 137 1,606 Domestîc credit 684 602 845 592 -595 Claimî; on Government (net) -307 69 60 55 -675 Claime on Private Sector 991 533 785 537 80 Quasi-money (increase ) 242 -227 -21 -227 Other ftems -75 (net) (increase -) -290 223 -449 52 -939 Change in money supply -125 646 371 554 997 1- Missi7n's est±mate Hence, money supply has expanded almost ent±rely oriacceount of the sharp increase in net foreigu assets of the banking system indicating try's favorable the coun- export conditions for groundnuts and new important capital inflows (Annex 62). 80. The slowdown in the rate of increase of total bank credit to the private sector was the result of two opposite movements: short-termt on the one hand, bank credit stagnated due to the reduction in the tion of groundnuts; market produc- on the other hand, medium- and long-term credit increased substantially, due to the growing requirements of the industrial tion sectors and construc- of the economy. The increase in long-term credit was especially pronounced in 1968/69 on account of the large credit needs mill, of the new textile NITEX. Hlowever, medium- and long-term credits by banks and have remained by CCCE small and the Central Bank's contribution, negligible. To favor this type of investment, ïn September 1970, the were statutes of the BCEAO amended to allcow ît to rediscount medium-term papers of years maturity, up to seven as against a previous l.mit of five years. Thus the redis- counting of these papers remain one of the most important untapped resources of internal development financing (Annexes 63 and 64). 81. Until 1968, Central Bank credit to the Government was the rediscounting limited to of customs duty bille, However, with the deterioration '-2 - of the budgetary situation in 1968/69, the Government made use of the statu- tory facility to borrow directly from the BCEAO. In the first half of 1969/ 70, the Government made further use of this facîlity, but as the budgetary situation improved, Government deposits with the Central Bank, including Treasury deposits with its local agencies, rose to CFAF 760 million at the end of September 1970 as against CFAF 240 million at the end of September 1969. Despite these borrowings and the large loans that it recently con- tracted with the BDRN, the Government sector has consistently maintained a net creditor position with the banking system during past years due mainly to the considerable deposits of the Postal Checking System and other pub- lic agencies with the BDRN. As already stated (paragraph 74), these de- posits were not at the immediate disposal of the Treasury, and, thus it was obliged to resort to Central Bank facilities ïn periods of large dis- bursements. 82. The growth in mone.y supply during recent years has mainly taken the form of increased demand deposits. In fact, the share of currency in circulation to that of money supply declined. However, this can hardly be considered as an indication of the progressively "modern" character of Niger' s economy. Instead, it reflects the fall of monetary income of the rural population and the substantial increase of public deposits, namely, SONARA-'s profits on its groundruts sales. Hence, with the limited growth of the overall credit needs of the economy, the banks were able both to finance the bulk of their operations without recourse to the rediscounting facilities of the BCEAO and to accumulate important cash balances. In fact, rediscounts wîth the Central Bank declined from CFAF 2.1 billion at the end of September 1968 to CFAF 0.1 billion at the end of September 1970 (Annex 65). The high liquidity of Niger's banking system at the end of 1970, therefore, actually reflects the difficult growth of its economy during past years.' More specifically this situation is, to a certain extent, related to the fact that increased export earnings have not been distributed to farmers - thereby re- ducing effective demand - but rather "hoarded" in banking accounts. Interest rates 83. For ov«er ten years, the BCEAO rediscount rate has remained at 3.5 percent (Annex 66), although, in recent years, high interest rates have pre- vailed on foreig-i money markets. These disparities have stimulated sâme cap- ital transfers, but major changes in the basic structure of intereet are not envisaged. With regard to this problem it must, however, be pointed out that the use of the Bank's excess funds in sectors where private credit is gen- erally not available is not primarily a monetary or banking problem. Credit to the rural sector or to small local industry must go hand in hand with tech- nical and organizational assistance to farmers and enterpreneurs. Only the improvement of agricultural development institutions, the creation of indus- trial infrastructure - currently under study by the Government - and, in *general, a dynamic investment policy, will allow Niger to use more of its own financial resources and fïnd new ways to integrate the banking system into the development of its economy more efficiently and actively. - 27 - External Trade and Payments Foreign Trade 84. Available data on Niger 's official foreign trade indicate that the trade deficit rose consistently in recent years, reaching a peak of CFAF 6.3 billion in 1969 as a result of a drop of exports and a substantïal increase in imports. Recorded foreign trade, 1965-70 (in millions of CFAF francs) Exports Imports Balance of Trade f.o.b. c.i.f. 1965 6,250 9,300 -3,050 1966 8,574 11,115 -2,541 1967 8,580 11,352 -2,772 1968 7,125 10,237 -3,112 1969 6,250 12,570 -6,320 1969 (6 months) 3,552 5,972 -2,420 1970 (6 months) 4,390 6,701 -2,311 Source: Data provided by Niger Authorities. The fall in total exports was due largely to the drop in groundnut and groundnut oil exports; they account for more than 60 percent of the total. Cotton exports also fell, whereas those of livestock showed little change. At the same time, the rise in total recorded imports was attributable mainly to the increase in imports of capital goods associated with foreign invest- ments in the uranium and textile sectors. Imports of consumer goods have more or less stagnated since 1966. On the basis of six-months' data for 1970, and mainly due to the rise in the world market price of groundnuts and the increased sales of livestock to Nigeria, it appears that exports for the year as a whole will be well above the depressed 1969 level. Im- ports showed a similar trend during the same period (Annex 67). 85. The unknown margin of error from unofficial border trade does not permit drawing any firm conclusion about Niger's actual balance of trade. However, since deficits are apparently both more frequent and more important than surpluses, a "normal tendency" towards an excess of imports is more likely. This situation has been aggravated by Niger's recent economic difficulties. 86. As in other former French colonies, there has been a slight shift away from France in the geographic distribution of Niger's foreign trade. Although France remains the principal market for Niger's exports - 28 - (62 percent in 1969), its imports slightly declined from 53 percent of total imports in 1966 to 48 percent in 1969; they were replaced partly by imports from the other EEC countries (Annex 68). 87. Nigeria, the second largest market for Niger's products, received an average of 18 percent of recorded exports (main.ly livestock and niebe beans). In 1968 its share of exports fell to a low of 15 percent, but, in the first six months of 1970, it absorbed 21 percent of Niger's exports, largely as a result of the revival of cattle trade between the two countries. Tkis trade is, however, much understimated by official statistics since it !' believed that almost 50 percent of Niger's cattle export is not recorded und increasing amounts of manufactured goods are smuggled from Nigeria. 38. There are only partial indicators about the development of export and import prices, so Niger's terms of trade can only be roughly estimated. An indication of the development of împort prices is provided by the IMF index of "European Industrial Export Prices". Export prices for Niger's groundnuts rose by 16 percent between 1965/66 and 1970/71, but with sharp falls during the years 1966/67 and 1967/68. Cotton prices have developed favorably since 1965/66. Tentative assessment of Niger's terms of trade 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970- Export price index (Europe) 100 101 100 98 105 122 Export price index (Niger) (Groundnut and cotton) 100 85 85 98 113 116 Terins of trade 100 84 85 100 107 95 /1 The 1970 index figure takes into consideration the 12.5 percent devaluation of the CFAF in 1969. These partial indicators show that after a sharp fall of Niger's terms of trade in 1966 and 1967 they recovered rapidly and in 1969 exceeded their 1965 level. In 1970, the country's terms of trade declined again, reflect- ing in general the price increases in European countries. Since world market prices for groundnuts, cotton and uranium are expected to decline, it is likely that Niger's terms of trade will deteriorate during the coming years. Thus, despite a temporary improvement of Niger's terms of trade in 1968/69 one can conclude that international market conditions will re- main unfavorable for Niger. - 29 - Overall balance of payments 89. Despite statistical deficiencies, the main qualitative features of the overall balance are known (Annex 69). As in other poorer countries of former French Africa, trade deficits aggravated by the service account and private outLlows are normally more than offset by an inflow of public transfers. In fact, the deficit of Nigert s current balance has always been aggravated by important payments for transport and insurance services and, primarily, from deficits on services rendered under foreign assistance programs. 90. Until 1968 external equilibrium was generally achieved by a decrease in reserves. Since then, however, net foreign assets have in- creased to CFAF 2.6 billion in 1970, mainly as a result of an increased inflow of public and private external funds, primarily grants from FAC and, to a growing extent, from FED as well as smaller amounts of aid re- ceived from USAID, UN, IDA and Canada (Annex 70). While aid from these re- sources rose steadily during past years, the sharp increase of Niger's net foreign assets is mainly attributable to the inflow of private capital to finance two important industrial projects, the uranium mining company, SOMAIR, and the textile mill, NITEX. Thus, although Niger's balance of pay- ment position appeared favorable for 1970, the underlying structural factors reveal its heavy dependence on foreign markets and aid. External debt 91. Niger's external public debt consists essentially of contractual loans from IDA, CCCE and the Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau, and of loans guaranteed by the Government. Suppliers' credits account for a relatively small portion of the country's foreign debt. Niger's total external publîc debt outstanding rose from CFAF 6.7 billion at the end of 1963 to CFAF 10.4 billion at the end of 1970, mostly from the increase in loans guaranteed by the Government. This category accounted for about two-thirds of external public debt at the end of 1970 compared with some 14 percent in 1968 (Annex 71). Since the bulk of foreign aid to Niger has been on a grant basis and loans received have generally been on concessionary terms, its external public debt service has remained small. It was estimated at CFAF 148 mil- lion in 1969/70, representing about 2.4 percent of official exports proceeds. Thus, despite increases in total public debt, its service payments have not constituted a heavy burden on either the budget or the balance of payments. III. DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND PROSPECTS A. Overall Review of Planning 92. During the last decade, plapning has become the most important tool of the Government for coordinatlng and controlling the implementation of development policies. In fact, since independence, the Government has planned public investments and has continuously improved planning procedure.: and adapted planning objectives to human and fînancial constraints. Thus, the present 1971-74 investment program is the result of successive adjust- ments of past plans and programs) which generally had little relation with existing possibilities. 93. Indeed, the "Perspectives Decennales" 1965-74 have never been translated into practical terms although they have not been formally dis- carded. The 1965-68 Plan, which emphasized road construction and develop- menit of water resources, was supposed to represent the means to implement the first half of the ten years "perspectives". Investment targets were put at CFAF 43.12 billion of which CFAF 33.11 billion public. However, it was soon realized that the Plan was far too ambitious and would not be implemented. In fact, total public investment expenditures in this period amounted to CFAF 13.8 billipn or only 41 percent of Plan targets (Annex 72). The flow of foreïgn aid was slow and not at the expected level. At the same time, the rate of spending on aid committed was low. Insufficient absorptive capacity appeared to be the major obstacle, especially in the agriculture and construction sectors. Despite these difficulties it should be emphasized that significant structural reforms have been implemented during this period. 94. Due to these problems, sïnce 1967, the Government has given greater flexibility to Niger's planning by a system of rolling four-year programs for public investment. Each year it reviles and up-dates the program on the basis of the financial controi of the implementation of each project or operation by putting in new operations, dropping some of the old ones, and extending the program for a period pf one year.. It has adopted a parallel system of four-year rolling programs for the budget and for training activities and technical assistance and, recently.initiated a program of regional planning. This programming systern allowed the Government to function without a formal "plan" in 1969 and 1970. 95. During 1970, the Government prepared a draft plan for 1971-74, embodying a new set of sectoral objectives and reforms, and decided with Canadian help to revise the ten-year perspectives. The completion of the 1971-74 plan has been delayed; it will.now probably be published as an interim plan covering the period necessary for preparing the new ten-year perspectlves. 96. The considerable efforts to elaborate a comprehensive planning system have ailowed,the Sigerien Gâvernmnnt to make the plan a more ef- fective policy instruient aadd to graduxlly step up the use of development . . v - 31 - funds. However, improvements still have to be made in Niger's planning machinery. In particular, there is an urgent need to set up programming units in technical ministries and in some regional departments, to improve the identification and preparation of development projects. The creation of these units and a general improvement of the efficiency of public admin- istration will be further steps towards solving the crucial problem of the country's limited absorptive capacity. Finally planning in Niger would be even more efficient if its structures were better integrated in the decision making process concerning development. 97. Public investment expenditures rose sharply (35 percent) during the years 1966-69, mainly as a result of important road investment. In fact, outlays in agriculture and social sectors declined since 1967. The gap be- tween commitments and disbursements slightly decreased since undisbursed credits represented only 2 years and 7 months of investments made in 1969 as against three years in 1966. Public Investment 1966-69 (CFAF million) 1966 1967 1968 1969 Commitments 4,947 4,556 5,098 5,189 Disbursements /1 3,396 3,812 3,910 4,598 Undisbursed credits- 9,957 10,257 11,511 11,895 /1 Accumulated undisbursed credits since 1960. Source: Commissariat General Au Development. Despite this slight acceleration in using development funds, the lag re- mains considerable, especially in implementing the road and rural water development programs (Annex 73). 98. The Government has been quite successful in securing foreign aid and în diversifying its origin. In fact, the bulk of the country's deve- lopment expeditures has been financed by foreign aid, but by a declining share of Niger's traditional financial sources. 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Niger's budget +FAC +FED + USAID 99.4 96 97 95.4 89 70 69 Other sources 0.6 4 3 4.6 11 30 31 The better diversJfication of financial sources, however, reflects not only the increased financial contributions of new aid donors, such as the World Baank Group and Canada and the decline of the traditional French aid, but also the sharp drop of the Government's financial contribution toward the 32 - country's development. On the average, Niger financed 24 percent of its public development expenditures during the first half of last decade, but its contribution dropped to 15 percent during the years 1966-69 (Annex 74). 99. According to the planner's forecast, the financing of the 1971-74 public investment program wil2L rely almost exclusively on foreign aid. Local financing will only cover about 10 percent of the program (Annex 75). This program provides for total expenditures of CFAF 47.6 billion of which nearly 61 percent is allocated to transportation and communications, as agains t about 33 percent during the past investment programs. Public ILnvestment Program 1971-74 (in billions of CFAF) 1966-69 % 1971-74 % Transportation and communications 5e5 35 28.9 61 Rural development 4.4 28 7.1 15 Education 2.7 17 3.4 7 Public health 0.38 2.4 1.9 4 Energy and mines - - 1.1 2 Other - - 5.0 il Total 15.7 100 47.6 100 Although rural development is thle Governument's declared priority, total re- sources devoted to agriculture and livestock do not appear to be commensurate with requirements of an essentially agricultural economy and its present cri- tical situation. Attainirg the overall investment target would require tripl- ing the country's absorptive capacity during the next four years. This seems very unlikely despite the recent acceleration of development expenditures. 100. This large program is obviously attributable to the Government' s desire to have a wider margin for negotiations with foreign aid donors. However, considering the needs, the human and natural constraints of the country, and its limited capacity in preparing and implementing development projects, an adjustment of the overall investment target and a reconsidera- tion of sectoral priorities seem necessary. This task, however, remains part of the new 1971-74 development plan. Until then, only the analysis of the present sectoral programi draft will provide some indications of the country's future development policîes and growth prospects. B. Sectoral Development Policies and Prospects Transport 101. Transportation presents serious problems in Niger: internally because of the size of the country relative to its population and, exter- nally because of its distance from the sea. Indeed, Niger depends entirely on its road-network for the transport of agricultural products (mainly - 33 - groundnut and cotton) between areas of production and consumption and for exports. The highway nietwork consists of about 7,900 km of roads, of which 50 percent are classified as earth roads or track (usable only in the dry season), 43 percent as gravel and only 7 percent as paved roads. 102. Considering the importance of transport in Niger's economy, the Government has constantly given high priority to improving the country's main road network and to its outiets to the sea. Following the current program, some large road projects will be pursued, particularly the con- tinued paving of the main west-east axis (1,600 km) which runs from Mali to Chad through the population centers of the country. Mission Estimates of Major Transport Investments (in billions of CFAF) National Road No. 1 Tillabery - Mirria 7.8 Goure - Lake Chad 4.0 Tsernaoua - Arlit 8.5 Niger River Navigation 1.2 Niamey Airport 1.0 Total 22.1 Various foreign agencies (FED, CIDA, IDA) concur in the financing of this main axis, and while improving most of its sections in justified on economic grounds, the construction of the last section, where traffic is neg.igible, (Goure-Lake Chad) is maînly intended to serve the country's national and administrative integration. To warrant its economie justification and to reduce its cost on the Government budget a vigorous effort to develop the eastern part of Niger should be undertaken immediately. 103. To serve domestic or international traffic, a number of north- south roads connect the east-west highway at various points. From an in- vestment standpoint, the most important of these roads is the road running north from Tsernaoua (west-east highway) to the uranium mine near Arlit, a distance of some 800 km. Improving this road w4il probably be econo- mically justified on the basis of the transport needs of the mine; it is expected that paving of the entire road will be warranted when a second mining installation is developed near Arlit, at Akokan. Discussions are presently being held with FED, FAC and other agencies with a view of secur- ing financing for the first branch of road works. In the longer term, thîs road will also constitute a section of the proposed Trans-Sahara road iti- nerary going through Tamanrasset in Algeria; further studies, however, will be necessary to assess the justification of the construction of the Trans- Sahara road project. - 34 - 104. Access to the sea is of prine concern to Niger. Most of Niger's foreign trade is shipped through the ports of Cotonou in Dahomey, and Lagos in Nigeria. Beside these traditional ports, small quantities of goods have also been shipped via Abidjan and Lome. It is likely that these possibili- ties will increasingly be used in the future, sinice road links between Niger and Upper Volta and the main north-south road in Togo will be improved during the next vears. 105. Lagos forms the natural outlet for the trade of south central and eastern Niger because this route is cheaper than shipment via Cotonou; while the Cotonou route is cheaper for all traffic to and from the western part of Niger (Niamey) (see map). Until now, the road and railway to Cotonou constitute Niger's main access to the sea and was mainly used for import traffic. In the future its role will probably diminish, since the Govern- ment has decided - with the help of Canada - to make the Niger River navi- gable for bulk shipments (mainly fuel) all the way up to Niainey. Besides various technical problems that still have to be solved, the main issue here is whether implementing the river navigation project is economically feasible, i.e. whether it reduces overall transport cost ta Niger, given the existing alternative rail cum road route Via Dahomey to the sea, operated jointly by Niger and Dahomey through OCDN 1/ (Annexes 76-77). 106. About a third' of the total estimated investments (US$1 .8 million out of a total of US$4.8 million) has a1.ready been committed to experîments on the river by the Canadians and to raising the bridge at Malanville by USAID. The economia feasibility of the whole project depends on the timing of the additional US$3 mî.llion invest2nent or the second phase of the project. Roulg;ù estimates indicate that thi.s additional investment is justifiable in 1975 if the quantity of fuel transported on the river exceeds an average of about 50,000 tons per year for 15 years. The mission estimated that fuel traffic on tlhe river would be about 54,O00 tons per year from 1975. The timing of the second phase (1975) is, however, fortuitous, especially on practical grounds because of thd time requîred before the success of the experiments can reasonably be asseesed. 107. The Government also intends to ship dry goods on the river thus requiri'Lg constructing iniportant port facilities. Since the transport of these goods will remain limited, it is questionable whether the high cost of these facilities will be ecônomically iustified. Further diversion of traffic from the Niamey-Cotonau axis would probably also increase the aver- age cost on this itinèrary, thus increasing the overall transport bill of Niger. In the long term, however, fulil and all-year river navigation may become feasible because of the probable construction of a dam at Kaindadji near the Mali border, which would mfake the Niger River navigable between Bamako and Port Harcout during the whole year. Preliminary studies on this project are part of sub-regional development scheme of the Liptako-Gourma area, where importaïit mineral deposits have been discovered; exploitation will probably be profitable only with cheap river transport facilities and electriclty produced by the dam. Although this inter-regional project is at a very early stage, the complete and all-year navigability of the Niger 1/ Organisation Commune Dahomey-Niger. .. * * .1 p i - 35 - River would open new development prospects for Niger and in the long-run be- came an important factor of integration for the economies of Mali, Upper. Volta, Niger and Nigeria. In the meantime, the Government should pursue its efforts to improve the two main outlets to the sea, Lagos and Cotonou, while implementing wïth caution a limited river navigation project. 108. The Government also wants to improve the Niamey airport to accom- modate larger jet aircraft (DC-8-63) wïth heavier payloads and to elixminate present take-off penalties. Preliminary calculations indicate that the trans- port cost savings associated wîth eliïinating take-off penalties economically justifies the project. Further investigations, however, will be necessary ta clarify whether these cost savings will be passed on to the economy of Niger, and to ascertain the developmental aspects of the project and its impact on Niger's current budget. Agriculture 109. Besides developing a modern transport network, the Government has put emphasis on developing water resources by financing irrigation schemes and village wells to serve human and livestock needs. While the well dig- ging program has been relatively successful, the introduction of irrigated agriculture -- as already pointed out -- has encountered considerable human- and technical difficulties. In the 1971-74 public investment program, the Government is again giving high priority to implementing new irrigation schemes. In the mission's view further investment in this field, however, should be undertaken only after careful examination and improving existing production facilities. A better exploitation and greater profitabîlîty of existing irrigation projects appear possible mainly through introducing high-yielding crops, double cropping and improving extension seivices. After these measures, cautious advance and concentration of efforts on one area should then be favored to the simultaneous undertaking of large indi- vidual operations. A FED-financed study is currently underway to determine the possibility of improving exlsting irrigation schemes and the feasibilïty of new ones in the Niger valley. 0 110. There are, however, possîbilities for initiating a number of small traditional îrrigatîon schemes 4rn scattered bottoom lands to produce market garden products and cereals. These projects need not entail high cost as long as only technical assistance i provîded to farmers, who will be respon- sible for realizing them (as has been done in the Maradi region). The scope for market gardening will, however, depend on both a better-organized market- ing system and the expansion of the domestic market. Expansion of prospec- tive markets in coastal countries should be investigated. 111. Whatever the long-termr future of irrigation., which would only bene- fit a small proportion of the rural population, the more pressing problem in agriculture concerns increasing yields of main and secondary cash and sub- sistence crops. As stated earlier, until now, growth of these crops has mainly been achieved by extending cultivable land. This has resulted in serious soal erosion in various parts of the country and growing competition between farmers and herders. Further soil deterioration, decline of live- stock breeding and finally increased migration to southern countries, mainly Nigeria would result if this critical situation were to continue unless the - 36 - Government gives highest priorityrtô the inerease of agricultural productivi- ty. This applies not only to the production of the country's major cash crops (groundnuts and cotton), whose extensive cultivation is no longer remunera- tive to producers in the face of declining prices, but also, and perhaps to a greater extent, to the production of foodstuffs to meet growing internal and external demand. 112. In fact, considering the precarious food situation, the further development of cash crops will tequire a substantial improvement in yields of subsistence crops, since only after the farmer is assured of his food can he work for cash. To partly rimedy this situation, the Government has recently established a "Marketing Board? for foodstuffs (O.P.V.N: Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger) wïth the aim of stabilizing the widely fluctuating food prices in the different regions of the country. In the longer run, an increase in production of millet, sorghum and beans might even allow Niger to become a regular supplier of foodstuffs for the expand- ing markets of coastal countries (mainly Nigeria). Supplying these more highly populated countries with basic foodstuffs and, to a certain extent, garden produce seems to be a promising market for Niger's agriculture. Gro-wth prospects for groundnuts wil7, indeed, be limited by the expected long-term deterioration of their world market prices. Cotton development will be limited by the country's unfavorable ecological and climatic condi- tions. Although there remains some inclination to spend large sums on irrigation projects, the understanding is growing that productivity schemes for cash and subsistence drops must be given highest priority. Extension projects reflecting this approach are currently being prepared for varîous regions of the country., 113. One peculiar feature of the agricultural development polLcy in Niger is the absence of foreign davelopment companies (societes d'inter- vention) which play such a large role in other francophone countries in Africa. Only occasionally (e.g., for cotton) has the Government allowed agents of such companies to be temporarily engaged by national bodies (e.g., CFDT i/ agents in UNCC). This reflects the Government's desire to keep con- trol over development activities and preserve a Nigerien approach. Some structural changes, however, ar# being prepared. Originally, rural devel- opment was the task of several independent institutions (UNCC, Ministry of Agriculture, CGD). This led -- as already pointed out -- to confusion and inefficiency in the field. Therefore, the Government now is rightly consid- ering giving overall responsibility to UNCC for implementing agricultural projects. The geographic scope of theàe projects will be limited and the means and methods of irplementation to achieve production targets will be spelled out clearly. 114. To promote greater Itnvo'lvement of farmers in development programs, the Government also wants to step up both the training of rural extension workers and the cooperative movement. The Government is attaching great 1/ Compagnie Francaise pour le Developpement des Fibres Textiles. .t, % - 37 - importance to the creation of cooperatives. It considers them to be the basic development units in the rural sector. UNCC has been quite successful in setting up cooperatives and in organizing and monitoring the commerciali- zation of their products (mainly groundnuts). In the future, however, greater emphasis will be given to traïning selected farmers who will then act as extension workers for fellow farmers to implement productivity schemes. 115. While these efforts will probably improve implementing develop- ment projects, it will also be most important to emphasize improving accelerating and project preparation on a central and regional basis. aré, in There fact, more internal and external funds available than necessary for the projects ready to be financed. The lack of both qualified extension workers and qualified personnel capable of identifying and preparing agri- cultural projects has been the most important factor limiting the absorptive capacity in agriculture. Thus, considering the urgency of rural development and the fact that Niger will be unable to provide sufficient staff for these services during the next years, it seems advisable to employ more foreign experts. In the medium-term, this is the only way to alleviate one of the most important constraints on Niger's development. 116. While improvements in these fields are expected to lay the for accelerating basis agricultural growth in the long-term, the Government's consideration re- of its present pricing policy, mainly for groundnuts, seems urgent to remedy the present critical situation in this sector by providing the indispensable price incentl-ve for its recovery during the next years. The mission has made estimates about the Government's capacity to raise groundnut prices from their present level of 21 CFAF per kg to respectively 23 and 24 CFAF. Despite the uncertainty of world market prices for future groundnut Niger's production and of the portion of SONARA's profits which will be devoted to investment expenditures the Government (CSPPN) sufficient will have funds to guarantee these prices over a period of about years. Stable 5 to 8 prices over a period of several years will not only help with the recovery of groundnut production but also with the launching of envisaged productivity schemes in this field. Results of these projects which will not be evident before the second half of this decade will facilitate then eventual adjustments of producer prices to expected declining world market prices (Annex 78). Livestock 117. The increase of agricultural productivity is a prerequisite long-term for the development prospects of Niger's livestock sector. This not only is true for the traditional nomadic sector but also for the prospects more permanent of a association between agriculture and livestock raising. fact, one of In the most promising ways of dïversifying and raising the of existing output Niger farms is to bring about, in the long run, a progressively greater association of livestock fattening and crop cultivation. This admittedly be will a long and difficult process since farmers are not accustomed to keeping livestock themselves. The provision of grazing land and the growing of fodder on the farm level will require a substantial increase in present yields of subsistence and cash crop8. The Government intends to make - 38 - a start in this direction, by providing technical assistance to selected farmers, who in some parts of the country, where climatic and marketing con- ditions are favorable, have started stalling their cattle. In the long-term, it seems advisable to include this assistance in all suitable rural extension programs. The Government should also consider how it can provide technical assistance to nomadic herdsmen. 113. The consequences of the last drought years and the recent outbreaks of pleuropneumonia will overshadow the near future of the livestock sector. To remedy this situation, the Government intends to expand on-going programs mainly financed by FED and F'AC to improve veterinary services and water supply. In fact, during past years, the Government has rightly emphasized the improve- ment of health and feeding conditions for cattle to increase their productivity rather than their number. Pursuing this objective will be all the more neces- sary, since the potential growth of livestock has been seriously affected by the drought losses and since there are growing signs that new grazing areas have become scarce. 119. The Government also intends to invest in ranches and meat process- ing units. As stated earlier, a first ranching scheme, northwest of Niamey, was started in 1968. Although this ranch is technically well-conceived and well located, it has encountered management and pathology difficulties and is presently exploited at only 25 percent of its capacity. With the help of FAC, the Government intends to remedy this situation. Meanrwhile, it rightly follows a cautious approach with regard to establishing new fattening facil- ities in the Zinder-Goure area (UNDP). Setting up new cattle ranches as well as new slaughter f acilities in Zinder and Maradi will mainly depend on prospects for meat exports. 120. However, these prospects and a general modernization of wnit pro- duction and its distribution will require a reorganization of pres- : com- mercial circuits, prices and policies. Prevailing practices are generally in favor of the coastal import countries. High import tariffs on meat, in fact, protect the present distribution system (transport on the hoof and processing of meat in coastal cities), and low f ixed retail prices hinder improving cattle production on the producer side. The Government expects that the new regional "Community for Meat and Livestock"' (Entente Countries) will allow a gradual reorientation of this system in favor of the sahelian countries. This will also be the most critical test for better cooperation between Niger and Nigeria, which until now has benefited most from the pre- sent system. 121. With French financing, detailed studies in this field are now un- derway, to allow the Niger Government to define a long-term strategy for livestock, which despite the present critical situation will remain the most promising sector for the country's long-term development prospects. These prospects, however, will depend largely on a simultaneous effort to increase productîvity in both agriculture and livestock. - 39 - IndustEy and Mining 122. The' most important industrial projects for the coming years are the two uranium mines in the North. While the first mine, exploited by a French dominated company (SONAIR), started production at the beginning of this year, the recently discovered second uranium deposit will not be mined before 1977. 123. Except for uranium mining, development possibilities in the indus- trial sector are confined to small enterprises. Ainong the projects presently under study are a sugar refinery, further groundnut ol mills, two tanneries, an onion powder factory, a match factory and other small import substitution projects. WMhile prospects for export-oriented industries based on domestic raw materials seem favorable (oïl mills, tannery) prospects for industries producîng only for the domestic market are limited. As already mentioned, almost two-thirds of Niger's market is dominated by Nigerian manufactured goods and it will be difficult, in view of geographical conditions, to es- tablish tariff barriers which are completely effective. 124. The solution to these problems seems to be a more organized rela- tionship between the economies of Niger and Nigeria (mainly northern Nigeria). This implies the possibiiîty of Niger's more completely processing its own agricultural products. This would mainly concern the eventual processing of foodstuffs, such as millet, sorghum and beans. The recent creation of a flour mill (SOTRAMIL) in Zinder is the first interesting step in this direction. Exporting these products to Nigeria will probably not encounter major difficultîes. The key issue, however, will be the possibility of Niger's gradually processing all its livestock products in its own territory. Although a fundamental change of the traditional coumercial relations between both econ- omies will be a difficult task politically, it will be the first important step toward both effective industrialization of Niger's economy and inter- regional integration. In the long-term, the complete navigability of the Niger River and eventual exploitation of mineral deposits in the Liptako- Gourma region could then become a powerful second important step to integration and industrialization of the economy of this sub-region of West Africa. As long as these political and economïc prospects are not considered, Niger's industrialization will remain very limited. Education and Training 125. As for social sectors, the Government is aware both of its budgetary and personnel constraints and of the fact that its present health and educa- tion system is not adapted to the economic and social needs of the country. In the health sector, the Government clearly 8eems to focus on the develop- ment of rural mass medicine, which has been rather neglected in past years in favor of individual urban health care. The long-term model for developing education remains a much debated subject. -40 - of 126. As an attempt to overcome the constraints on the development primary edu- education, the Government initiated an important experiment in provided cation: television. broadcasts with a more rural type of education have to 22 classes around Niamey. The initial results of this experiment the been encouraging: student performance improved considerably, reducing probably need for class repetition. However, the content of the program is While not yet sufficiently adapted to the children's rural environment. contribute to educational T.V. (ETV), in its present form, might be able to the most press- the efficiency of the conventional primary education system, aim of such ing need of the moment is a reform of this system itself. The sufficient in a reform would be a type of primary education which would be Schools should itself and not a mere preparation for secondary schooling. of a reforn aimed prepare students primarily for rural life. In the context place. At the at these objectives, ETV and other innovations might find a high capital present stage, however, an expanded ETV would entail extremely density and recurrent costs because of the combined effect of low population education and low school enrollment ratios, without providing the type of which is most needed. consider- 127. The Government and foreign aid organizations have started the conven- ing such a reform. Aware of the need to limit the expansion of school tional education system, the Government intends to increase primary in 1974. enrollment only slightly, from 11.1 percènt in 1970 to 12.5 percent the Gov- The urgency of this limïtation is, în fact, clearly illustrated by own projections of the emplc.yment and training possibilities of ernment's than future prîmary school leavers (Annex 79). It is projected that more without 70 percent of all primary school graduates will be unemployed and possibilities for further training and education in 1974. This underlines that that primary emphasis will have to be placed on the kinlds of education country's are suited to the needs of the rural sector, which will remain the primary source of employment and on adult education. This can be done institu- through properly organized and staffed rural extension services and tions previously described such as "animation rurale" and the functional the literacy campaign (Paragraph 19). In fact, to limît the gap between inte- traditional adult society and their "literate" children, an effective gration of school leavers into the rural community will require a program .,whole for adult education. In otner words, the village community as a coordination should be integrated into a new approach to education. Better concept of or an eventual integration of the existi.ng schemes into a unified with rural education seems also necessary. Only if this reform is undertaken vigor wïll an increase of enrollment be justified. provides 128. The same can be said for the secondary school system, which that grad- mainly general education. Plan estimates (1971-74), however, showA more and uates of this system (junior high school level, BEPC) will encounter more than more diffulties in finding employment. In 1974, ît is expected that the half of them will remain jobless (Annex 80). To remedy this situation, training Government endeavors to extend existing facilities for vocational and to provide new places for higher secondary education. This is essential since in all sectors of the economy, there is a need for skilled workers, technicians and university graduates to replace foreign assistants. - 41 - 129. While additional investments in secondary and in particular voca- tional education seem economically justified, the Government's recent deci- sion to create its own university reflects considerations of national inde- pendence and mainly the fact that during past years Nigerien students were expelled from the Dakar and Abidjan Universities. Other West African coun- tries have taken similsir decisions and it seems that they have abandoned the idea of an interregi--.al approach to higher education for the time being. Although the French Government will probably finance the capital and part of the recurrent costs of Niger's university, it will become an increasing burden on the Government's budget and probably necessitate revising previously established financial and enrollment targets for the education sector. It seems advisable, therefore, to be cautious about both the timing of this proj- ect and the development of individual schools within the university and to seek new means of cooperation among neighboring states. PÔ%4êt and Telecommunications 130. Diesel stations in Niamey and other major cities produce the power in Niger. The total installed capacity of the urban centers has increased from 10,725 kw in 1966 to an estimated 14,930 kw in 1970 (Annex 81). About 85 percent of the total energy supply comes from the two stations in Nîamey, which will be strengthened by new diesel units to meet demand until 1975; then additional sources of power will be needed. As an alternative to thermal plants, two hydro-electric power projects are presently under consideration: first, French experts are studying a power project on the Mekrou River that would be sufficient to meet Niamey's electricity requïrements until 1980; second, the Government is considering helping finance a power link between the Kaindji Dam in Nigeria and Niger. Althoughl the details of the Kaindji Dam project, in particular, the price of Nigerian electricity delivered to the border of Niger, are not known, it is questionable whether the financing of both projects is justified. 131. Concerning Telecommunicatione, the Niger Government plans to expand the local telephone' system in principal towns and to strengthen inter-urban routes by replacing the present rudimentary system of overhead lines by nicro- wave links. A first loan has been contracted with ADB to finance the main section of this system between Niamey and Dosso. The Canadian Government or IDA are expected to fînance the remaining section (Dosso-Zinder) as part of an inter-regional telecommunication scheme, prepared by the "Conseil de l'Entente". 132. In both sectors, proper timing of future investments will be imipor- tant to adapt planned capacities to existing and anticipated needs of the ec- onomy. Estimates of Public Investments 1971-74 133. The Government is still engaged in developing a clear long-run strategy for all sectors and an overall development concept for their inte- gration. It is important to note that the Government is aware of the neces- sity to revise past development targets and to defïne new policies for the - 42 - present decade. The expected reform of rural development services, the review of the present education system and the extension of planning to the country's different regions already reflect the Government's desire to define new devel- opment strategies. These strategles wïll both be more clearly spelled out and integrated into a new overall approach to development in the "Ten-Year Per- spectives" which the Governnent is currently preparing. 134. Until then, however, the country's elaborate "rolling" programming system continues to provide reliable guidance for day-to-day action and allow the necessary flexibility in implementing development projects. It is with this flexibility in mind that the 1971-74 public investment program which would amount to about 10 to 12 percent of GDP and its disbursement schedule must be appraised. Government Forecast of Public Investment Expenditure (million CFAF) Amount Undis- Dis- 1960-69 bursed 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 71-74 bursed (after 1974) Credits received 31,302 11,656 7,340 5,669 2,554 942 896 10,061 1.400 Credits expected 48,644 - 30 4,982 9,849 11,518 11,221 37,570 11,044 Total disburse- 79,946 11,656 7,370 10,651 12,403 12,460 12,117 47,631 12,444 ments An appraisal of aggregate targets in a country such as Niger is difficult, since the whole outcome may depend on one or a smali number of individual projects that may or may not be implemented. In the transportation sector, for example, it remains questionable whether financing for the uranium mine road (Tahoua-Arlit) and the Mirria-Goure section of the main west-east high- way will be obtained during the program period. Delaying some roads invest- ments seems, however, to be in the interest of the Nigerien economy. In fact, spreading of construction work over a longer period than scheduled would smooth out changes in this sector and have a stabilizing effect on Niger's manpower market and commercial activities. 135. Important projects in the agricultural and livestock sector are only at an early stage of preparation, and disbursements on these projects will probably not start before the end of the program perîod. The same is true for the power, telecommunications and industrial sectors. It is likely, therefore, that aid disbursements will be lower than the expected level in the immediate future (1971-73). They will probably gather momentum at the end of the 1971-74 period, with important slippages beyond this period. - 43 C. Financing of Public Investment The Budget and Development Policy 136. The Government has worked out medium-term budgetary prospects in an effort to make them consistent with the four-year "rolling" public invest- ment programs. It has made forecasts of budget receipts since 1966, based on the extrapolation of actual budget receipts during the preceding six years. The expected annual growth rate of Government revenues was estimated at 5 per- cent for the years 1966-69. On a similar basis and taking into account new recurrent expenditures resulting from the implementation of the public pro- gram, ordinary budget expenditures were expected to rise at the same general rate, but wïth important differences in the growth rate of allocations for different Ministries reflecting the Government's development priorities. Thus, the rate of growth for rural development was put at 8 percent; for edu- cation, 7 percent; for public works, 6 percent; for health, 4 percent; and for other ministries, 2 percent. 137. Actual budgets during the years 1966-69 fell far below targets. Government revenues increased by only 2.3 percent annually while current ex- penditures rose by 8 percent. The objectives for various expenditure cate- gories were not reached either, since the increase (7 percent) in rural devel- opment outlays was below target (8 percent) whereas the increase (4.6 percent) inidefense spending was more than double the expected level (2 percent). These considerable discrepancies reflect not only the genuine problems ïn projecting budgetary developments in a country such as Niger and its recent economic dif- ficulties, but also the Government's difficulties in adjusting current expen- ditures to the slow growth of receipts and in keeping budgetary appropriations within predetermined limits. 138. The Government's fiscal receipts rose rapidly during the first half of the last decade, partly due to favorable economic growth, but mainly becauise of the Government 's new tax measures. However, the Government has recognized that the country's tax burden has reached, at least in some regions, a level beyond which new tax measures will become counterproductive. This is partic- ularly true for the capitation tax on the peasant population (see paragraph 39), Farmers will probably be strongly resistant to further tax increases. Furthermore, the expected declîne of world market prices for groundnuts and cotton makes increases of export taxes hardly conceîvable, while taxes on imports cannot be increased w-ithout danger of considerably stimulating smug- gling from Nigeria. Thus, although there is still scope for improving tax col- lection and the present tax system, the future growth of Government revenues will mainly depend on the development of Niger's economy. The basic issue of Niger's future budgetary policy will be to scale down budgetary outlays to the pace of growth of its economy. 139. The Government is aware of these problems. Plan estimates for 1971- 1974 realistically assume that the annual rate of increase of budgetary re- ceipts will be less than 4 percent. In fact, the increae in direct taxes (mainly poll and cattle taxes) will be determined by the growth of popula- tion and livestock and, therefore, not exceed 3 percent annually. Tax in- creases on the modern sector of the economy will also be modest, because of - 44 - the present slump in trade, the lack of immediately productive investment projects and the fact that social and economic infrastructure projects, which constitute the bulk of the 1971-1974 investment program, will only have a long-term effect on the country's production capacity. 140. Official forecasts for future Government current outlays assume that their annual rate of growth will be cut down to 4 percent, or half the rate of growth of current expenditure during last years. This will entail a consider- able effort of austerity on the part of the Government which most probably will encounter considerable resistance and pressure. In fact, besides the need to recruit more highly qualified staff, it is likely that the growing unemployment in Niamey will put heavy pressure on the Government's recruitment policy and increase the number of the "half employed" in the public sector. 141. Considering these pressures on the Government budget and the diffi- culties in making precise forecasts of budgetary receipts, estimates of the probable development of the country's current budget have been based on two alternative assumptions. Mission Forecast of Government Current Budget 1970 3 1971 /4 1972 /5 1973 1974 /1 a) Revenue - (1971-74 3%) 10.9 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.4 b) Revenue (1971-74 4%) 10.9 11.3 11.7 c) Expenditures /2 (1971-74 4%) 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.5 d) Expenditures (1971-74 6%) 10.9 11.5 12.1 Savings b/c (most favorable 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 assumption) Savings a/d (most unfavorable -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 assumption) /1 Excluding foreign assistance, contribution of public and mixed enterprises and drawings on reserve funds, /2 Excluding contributions-to the investment budget and special funds. /3 Actual budget figures (Annexes 48 and 49). /4 Based on budget figures 1971. 15 1972-74 Mission estimates. First, the above figures show that, after the exceptional year 1969/70, budg- etary receipts are expected to decline as a result of the continued drop in rural monetary income and a slowdown ofecommercial activities at the beginning of this year. Secondly, projections for the following years, although they - 45 - constitute only rough estimates, clearly indicate that Niger's budgetary situation will remain very precarious and that, in 1974, the Government might face a deficit situation similar to that of 1969. It is, in fact, doubtful whether the most favorable budget forecast will materialize. It is more likely that, during the coming years, normal current revenues will hardly suffice to cover current expenditures. Thus, except for the new income from SOMAIR, the Government will be unable to make any contribution to its investment budget. 142. A welcome addition to Government income will be the revenues from uranium mining which will be earmarked for the investment budget. These-te- venues are expected to yield CFAF 45 million in 1971, CFAF 55 million in 1972, CFAF 130 million in 1973 and CFAF 610 million in 1974. Considering the unfa- vorable world market prospects for uranium products, however, it is very doubt- ful whether these contributions will attain the expected levels. In any case, allocating these funds to the investment budget will be possible only if in- creasing claims for current outlays and Government contributions to special funds (Pension) and mixed enterprises can be held down. 143. The contribution of public institutions to financing public invest- ment will to a great extent depend on better mobilization of public funds. As stated earlier (paragraph 70), public bodies, although by statute cor- respondents of the Treasury, have tended to deposit most of their funds with the BDRN. Part of these funds, however, have remained idle because the BDRN has not found sufficient bankable projects. The Government is aware of this problem and is trying to remedy this situation. In the mission's view, an op timal use of public resources might require channelling these funds both to the Treasury and to the Government investment budget. This would probably allow the Government to mobilize more public funds for financing investment projects in all sectors of the economy. At the same time it might also be advisable to reconsider the lending policy of the BDRN by allowing it to enter new sectors. 144. The importance of these extrabudgetary sources will primarily depend on the future profits of SONARA's grounidnut sales. It is assumed here, as a working hypothesis, that SONARA wïll increase present prices paid to farmera. This seems indispensable for the recovery of groundnut production, which is expected to equal îts 1967/68 level in 1974. According to the latest fore- casts, world market prices for groundnut products will remain at their present high level until 1972 and then tend to decline. For these reasons, it is op- timistically assumed that SONARA's profit margin will remain at the present level (CFAF 1 billion). After payments of profit taxes and contribution to CSPPN, it is expected that SONARA will be able to provide annually betwepn CFAF 200 and 300 million to financing public investment projects. Thus, earmarked revenues from SOMAIR and extra-budgetary sources will probably allow the Government to make a small contribution to the financing of its investment budgets, depending, however, on the success of its austerity policies. The bulk of the expected investment expenditures will be financed by France, since France has agreed in accordance with the mutual agreements on uranium mining to allocate an annual aimount of CFAF 1 billion to the National Investment Fund from 1971 to 73 with a possible extension in 1974. - 46 - 145. The above consideratïons indicate that achieving a balanced current budget or at best.modest Government savings (before SOMAIR's contribution) will. be the most important test for appraising the Government's future budget- ary performance. It must be pointed out, however, that the structure of current expenditures and the manner in which they are oriented towards devel- opment will be as important. Although the "usefulness" of public current out- lays is difficult to assess, the growing unemployment of school leavers, the predominance of outlays for individual curative medicine over mass preventive medicine and the negligible effect of extension services on improving agricul- tural productivity raise doubts about the quality and efficiency of these out- lays and their impact on Niger's development. The growing budgetary difficul- ties also reflect the importance the Government has given in past and present investment programs to social and economic infrastructure projects. The cur- rent costs for these projects will become hardly bearable by the country. It seems, therefore, advisable to seek a better balance between directly produc- tive projects and those that have only an indirect and long-tern effect on the country's productive capacity. 146. The Government has become increasingly aware of these problems and, as descrîbed in previous chapters, is presently reconsidering its social and a-r.icultu1ra anlnr'4 s tab lh11%hing new develonment targets. The success and realism of these policies will determine whether, in the second half of the decade, the growth of Government revenues will accelerate and whether the budget will be an important factor of social and economic development in Niger. External Finance 147. Most of the present aid sources will continue to make substantial contributions to Niger's development on terms similar to those used in the past. For the second Yaounde Convention period (1971-75), FED may be ex- pected to provide considerably more funds than during the first Convention (CFAF 8 billion). The bulk of these will be devoted to financing highway construction; the remainder, to rural development and social infrastructure projects. It is expected that French capital aid, in addition to annual out- lays for technical assistance (CFAF 1.2 billion) and budgetary contribution (CFAF 1 billion), will continue at or near past levels (CFAF 1.5 billion a year). In the past two years, Canada has become an important new source of aid apparently willing to commit further substantïal. funds for investment projects in Niger, mainly directed toward financing projects in the xrans- port and power sector. Other potential sources are the World Bank Group, UNDP, ADB and other bilateral sources such as the Federal Republic of Ger- many and the United States (AID). 148. Available external funds for the next four- to five-year period, although subject to a wide margin of uncertainty, may be estimated between CFAF 40 to 50 billion. They will largely cover the needs for external financing of the estimated public investment program. Thus, despite the country' s own limited resources, ample -foreign funds will probably be available. It is not expected that financial constraints will, at this stage, hamper the financing of Niger's investment program. As pointed out earlier, the future volume of aid will primarily depend on accelerated project preparation. - 47 - 149. To avoid unnecessary competition and duplication among the grow- ing number of foreign aid donors, coordination among these agencies and the Niger Government will be most important. Furthermore, in assisting Niger in the development process, foreign aid institutions should bear in mind that the Government can make only a token contribution to development expend- itures. Foreign sources should, therefore, be willing to finance a high pro- portion of local investment costs. 150. For the same reason, aid will need to be provided almost entirely in the form of grants or on other concessional terms. Although the debt service burden will remain low in terms of budgetary receipts and exports earnings during the next five years, contracting new debts on ordinary com- mercial terms, will put an additional strain on the Government's budget and absorb resources that, otherwise, could have been devoted to improving the deplorably low standard of living of N±ger's people. In the last analysis, the argument for aid on grant or concessional terms rests on the poverty of the country and the need to raise current low income levels as rapidlv as possible. D. External Trade and Payments Prospects u51. The forecast of Niger's balance of payments in 1974 can only be considered as a reasonable guess. However, a nunber of factors indicate that the country's external balance will probably improve during the coming years. 152. Above all, starting in 1971, and with its full impact probably being felt in 1975, uranium exports estimated at CFAF 5 billion will represent a large and new item in the trade balance. Of course, the mine will have most of the characteristics of an "enclave" operation. Most of the inputs will be imported and part of the net profits and all amortization funds will be transferred abroad together with a share of the wages and salaries earned by expatriate personnel. Despite these various outflows, however, the net impact of this enterprise on Niger's balance of payments will be positive between CFAF 2 and 2.5 billion. 153. Prospects for traditional exports appear less bright since the exceptionally high world market prices for groundnuts and cotton will probably level off during this year and decline in the foreseeable future. However, price falls for groundnut products are hoped to be more than compensated for by the expected recovery of groundnut production so that export earnings on groundnut products in 1974 will probably reach the 1966/67 level (see Annex 26). Niger 's textile mill (NITEX) will absorb an increasing part of cotton production which will not only reduce cotton exports but, at the same time, prohably also reduce textile imports. Prospects for livestock exports are good since Nigeria, Ghana and the Ivory Coast, will probably continue to ahsorb increasing quantities. It is difficult, however, to envisage great increases in supply during the next years because livestock production will still have to recover from past losses. The relative shortage of supply could lead to price increase for cattle. 154. Growth of imported general consumer goods will be very modest during the near future considering the present depressed market situation - 48 - of the country and the large stocks accumulated by commercial enterprises. By the end of 1972, however, it is probable that demand for imports will increase as a result of a number of investment projects (transport) and, in particular, the increasing direct and indirect effects of SOMAIR's activities. Similar remarks can be made for equipment goods. During the last four years, they have been the major factor of growth of Nigeres imnportv-- (SOMAIR and NITEX). In the near future, there are no projects of a similar sie, t,hat will require purchasing important equipment goods. Only the probable implementiition of a second uranium mine (by 1974/75) could bring a new momentum for the demand of these goods. On the other hand, the prospects for an importar t progress in import substitution are necessarily limited for reasons already noted. In the near future, only textiles will be produced locally. 155. Considering these different elements of Niger's foreign trade prospects, one can assume that the trade balance will slightly improve during the next years. However, the defîcit on the service balance will remain important mainly because of growing transportation and factor pay- ments abroad, whereas serveices rendered under foreign assistance programs will probably remain at the estimated 1970 level. Estimates of the current balance in 1974, which indicate only a probable order of magnitude, leave a gap of CFAF 5 to 6 billion. Financing this gap îs expected to come mainly .Lroi tile net iLLLL±w o' pub'ic grants p.AC5 FED) and -1ans on concessionnary terms from various bilateral and multilateral aid institutions. 156. As explained earlier, the inflow of public funds that fills the resource gap is both directly and indirectly a major determinant of the level of imports. If the level of external aid is lower than foreseen, imports will also be less, indirectly, private outflows of funds will be fewer, and equilibrium will be reached at a lower le-el. In other words, the overall external gap îs largely self-financinge Moreover, considering the present level of reserves, Niger's membership in the Franc zone and the favorable prospects for exports, it is unlikely that Niger will have to face balance of payments problems during the next years. E. Conclusion: Overall Growth Prospects 157. In view of all the constraints and problems besetting Niger, pro- gress will undoubtedly be slow. It is difficult to estimate the future growth rate of Niger's economy because of the uncertainty of the impact of past and future development expenditures, the response of farmers to their critical sit:uation and the persistent difficulties of formulating an ef- fective appiroach towards the country's core problems, the raising of agricul- tural productivity. 158. For the rural sector, a reasonable - yet perhaps optimistic - guess is that it will recover from past losses and rural per capïta income will probabLy reach its 1967/68 level by the end of the present plan period. Dur- ing this period, expected investments in this sector will have, in fact, only a very limited effect on agricultural and livestock output, since importarnt productivity schemes are still in an early stage of preparation and the reor- ganization of development services in this sector has not yet been completed. Hence, major results of these schemes will be felt only during the second half of this decade and then probably allow a slight improvement in the per capita income of Niger's rural population. - 49 - 159. It is the mining sector, namely the expected production of SOMAIR and related transportation and trade activities, that will become the most important single growth factor of Niger's economy during the near future. The contribution of these direct (CFAF 4.5 billion) and derived (CFAF 1 bil- lion) activities to the country's growth has been estimated at about CFAF 5.5 billion in 1975. To these contributions must be added those of other industrial enterprises, such as the oil mill in Magaria, the flour mill in Zinder and the tannery at Maradi, that will start operating this year. Although these projects will increase the share of the modern sector in Niger's economy, their impact on the growth prospects of the rest of the economy will remain very limited. This is particularly true with regard to the creation of new employment possibilities, which will be very small in relation to the total number of people for whom some form of productive employment mnust be provided. 160. Similar remarks can be made for the large transport investments. Although outlays on these învestments will have a temporary positive effect on employment and income, they will have only an indirect and a long-term effect on the country's production capacity. 161. Broadly speaking, therefore, exploitation of development possibil- ities in agriculture will determine the pace of progress in Niger. 162. Progress will be affected by many factors that are susceptible to Government influence in varying degrees. Niger's iramediate objective should be the rapid implementation of the envisaged reorganization of its rural development management. As pointed out earlier, improving the Gov- ernment's "entrepreneurial" functions, particularly in the rural sector, will be vital for the country's future growth prospects. Volume and pat- tern of investment in this sector, will, in fact, greatly depend on the Government 's capacity to prepare and implement investment projects and ta create effective rural extension services. 163. Progress will also depend on the Government's efforts to adjust the growth of budgetary outl.ays to that of the economy and to solve social problems, such as unemployment, education, health and population. While the Government is currentiy reconsidering its educatîon and health policies, it has not yet defined a policy for family planning, which seems urgent consider- ing the increasing population pressure in Niger. A first step in this direc- tion would be to obtain a more accurate information on the magnitude and nature of the demographic problem by making a survey to determine what changes in the rate of growth and distribution of population have occurred since the last sample census of 1961. 164. Fïnally, the long-term progress of Niger's economy will also depend on the willingness of its Government and that of its neighbors to establish a more organized integration of their economies. This will allow each country to fully exploit all the products for which it has a natural advantage. The first steps in this direction have been taken (Meat and Livestock Community of the Conseil de l'Entente - Niger-Nigeria Commission) and, in the foreseeable future, are expected to allow Niger - 50 - both to process more of its livestock and agricultural products and to start a better cooperation with Nigeria. In the long run, the probable development of the Niger River with its possibilities for cheap production of electricity, transport of mEinerals, arnd irrigation could become a second powerful link of integration of this sub-region of West Africa. O'ly these efforts and orientations will, în the long run, determine the overall growth prospects of Niger's economy and gradually alleviate the internal and external constraints on its development. LIST OF ANNEXES 1 Qil and Mi:nng PermXts 2. Mir*Lix ?ermX', s (tap) 3. Oil P1S. ts (Map) h. Populat.ion w' NovQraber 1968 5. Population by Se-x ard Age Groups in 1968 6. Niger Majori TQmwsand C.ties 7. rne=ber of Wage Earners by Activity (964-1969) 8. Manpower E%ployed in the Private Sector 9. Exployenat în the Private Sectpr b7 Skills and Nationalities 10. E3mlxoyvent Applications Recorded by the Eployment Service Dlring 1970 il Job Opening Fiîled' DtLri ng 1970 12. Enroll2ent, EvolutiLon i,x the Last Ten Years (1960-1970) 13, Enrol;lment; by C-rade, (1969c-197Q) 14h Lower $econadei-y Edwoation Enrolleiunt by Grade, Sexe Type of Institution (îyS-4,197 0> iS D r FCaro-d x Edu.caticon (Grades 5-7) (19651970) 16. %«r-L (Lci4Ciarsh4 HtHolders) Abroad, Wy Field of Study (1965-1968) .7* 1.'c>i:n3 LxUCin Prba?riMay Sc-hocls (1965-1970) 18e PuL dnte for Edu-ica-tion by Type of Education (1963-1969) 19, PE,blic Expendit>ure on Edu ation by Purpose (1963-1969) 20, Total Pablîc Investment by Source, 1967 and 1968 21e Graw-th of Cooer-rat,ive açnd Mutualists Groups (1963/64-1969/7o) 22. Origin of GijP (1966-1969) 23. Agrîcl .1t-3I« Proer.iction (19&/68-1970/71) 24. 1 iger1 s Official importes of Agricultural Origin (1963-1970) 25. Exporits cf. M4ajor A4ricultura1 Products by Niger (1960-1969) 26. Export Price Structure a4d Marketing of Groundnuts (1965/66-1970/71) 27. Stat.u3 as of January 31, 1970" of the Productivity Program Fînainced 3ryeED 28. Distribution of Tr 0OL AND MINING PERMITS HOLDERS NAM-E AR4A DATE VALIDITY MINERALS REP ' ( hnv ~OF *~ : S t 'ISSUE -C. E. ii TEUA 55 C.E.I.. TEGUIDA 50000. 21.7; 59 6b.2.75 U.Thl.L i.Be. 50 ^ NITESSOUM4 * '2nd renewal C.E. A. ELPRAZ 17700 29.9.62 6 9.72 " 61 :lst renewal C.E.A. : No 20 :280000: 5.4.6S: 20*3.72 : " : 20 , :lst renewal HOI`M1DOY SIRBA , 2960. 4.3 66 3.3.71 , Au . 63 s, M.. .. Il 1. . 6 . I .cx37 TIN : S.W . I .. TIMIA , 60.31.3.66.0 3O. 3 .71 : 65 S. .D N * ,UISS,T S.M.D.N, :c GUISSAhT *40.31.3.66. 30.3.71 6666 S.:M. D. , EL 14ECL.I . 40.31.3.f:6. 30.3.71 ." 67 S.M.D.N. TARROtUA\DJT 10031.3.66 30.3.71 , 1 68 S.M.D.N. TARROUR1)JI 100O31.3.66, 30.3.71 69 S.M.D A1. TAHO!UA 2;500.26.4.66, 26.4.71 , GYPSUI 7 1 SOMAIR , .4RLIT 360:17.1.68. 16.1.43 * U.T1i.Li.B3e 1 IN TORDE T , 21000 21.3.68: 20.3.73 r 72 C.E.A. No 23 40000.21.3.68. .2_0.3.72 23 C.E.A. . DJADO 10000:15c3r69: 14.3.74 " . , LOÎ3.L : * DOSSO 65000 5. i2.69 '-162U74 OIL ANDGA . 1G, TEXACO AGAAEMD :245000:5e12.69: 4,12;74 : " : 2 *CONTIIEN'tril^l NIGER: SUD *.2900C0:5ê1 2.9: 42'i.2 " ESSEX MiARID I-Z INDER, 76000<7.2. ',O. 6.2.73 *Sn. Ib. Mo.Cu.. 78 * ' 'U. Zn.Pb.Spati' ESSEX : LIPTAKO StUD 28000 7,2. '70 6.2.73 " 79 ESSEX LIPFT.AZO NORD 7000 7.2. 70 6.2.73 " 80 GLOBAL SEGU7DII:, o 90480 10.3.70 9.'.75 OIL AND GAS 4 BIS7ÉIOI DJADO 110000 2713. 7oe 26,3.75 S B is HOP TALtA 85o00 27.3.70 25.3.375 " 6 *------ Source : Ministry of Public Works A=ex 2 . sY - - .-- -- - >-- I.7', 141TIWEZ l;=r...... -litL Jrr 0 A!s e--..~-, . ! w --- --.- f t .,.s gL- -- e - 1' ,~ f -g X= 13jIcw 1 ' `-gt.. .. ~...... l'` '9 --, I + ` 'bt4E 0 ' '-',a"`U:0`'"^`C'"'i`gI ~4.~q< ( I * I I g 4 -'~ g £ 3reuu Population - November 1968(estimates based on the latest administrative census> (1000 inhabitants) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 Agadez 63 64 66 68 71 73 75 77 80 . 82 85 87 90 93 96 100 Diffa 125 128 132 135 138 142 145 149 153 156 160 164 168 173 177 181 Dosso 448 459 471 h83 495 507 520 533 546 560 574 588 603 618 633 649 Maradi 567 582 597 613 629 646 663 681 699 718 737 757 777 798 819 841 Niamey 729 751 774 797 821 847 873 900 928 957 987 1018 1051 1084 1119 1154 of which city of Niamey (45) (50) (55) (60) (66) (72) (79) (86), (9h) (102) (111) (120) (130) (141) (152) (163) Tahoua 680 697 715 733 751 771 790 810 831 852 873 896 918 9h42 966 990 Zinder 720 739 759 779 800 821 844 867 890 914 940 966 992 1020 1049 1078 Total 3332 3421 3513 3608 3705 3806 3909 4016 4126 4239 4356 4476 4600 4727 4859 4994 Annual rate of increase (percent) 2.67 2.68 2.70 2.70 -2-.71 2.-2 {2..73 2.73 2.75 2.75 .2.76 2.77 2.77 2.78 2.79 Source: Data provided by Nigerien Authorities-. Annex 5 Pcpulation by Sex and AeGroups in 1968 (t000 inhabitants) Age Groups In Years Males Females TOTAL o- 4 323 315 638 5 9 276 273 549 10 14 256 252 508 15- 19 203 184 387 20 - 24 132 123 255 25- 29 115 130 245 30 - 34 11h 133 2h7 - 39 110 i2i 231 40 - 4h 90 93 183 45 - 49 80 83 163 50 - 54 63 62 125 55 - 59 49 48 97 60 -64 33 33 66 65 - 69 24 26 50 70 + 29 33 62 TOTAL: 1,897 1,909 3,806 Source: Data provided by Nigerien authorities. Annex 6 NIGER - Major Towns and Cities (1970) Niamey 74,000 iinder 38,000 Maradi 27,000 Tahoua 20,500 Birni N'Konni 10,000 Agadez 9, 500 Dogohdoutchi 8, 00. Illela 8,000 Tera 7,500 Filingue 7,000 Source: Data provided by Nigerien Authorities Annex 7 NUMBER OF WAGE EÀRNERS BY ACTIVITY - 1964-1969 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Government sector 8,12 11,197 11,877 12,976 13,729 14o0o0 AppofLnted civil servants 2,932 4,532 4,565 4,875 5.,054 5,1o0 Permanent auxiliaries a-nd 5,861 6,665 7,312 8,101 8,675 8,900 others Private sector l0,495 11,379 12,635 12,666 1 1h,351 Construction 3.,460 3,277 3,874 3,283 3,854 4$216 Banks 412 462 514 562 576 665 Commerco 1,339 1i558 1t432 1,547 1,635 1,776 Mecharical workshops 296 311 306 307 345 391 Transportation 818 869 1,126 1,1411 1,136 1,163 Industries 741 992 1,374 1,880 1,601 1,885 Hotels 184 234 207 198 209 210 Consultant firms 265 528 612 499 527 470 Servants4/ 2,500 25o00 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 Mines Others 480 648 690 749 90 786 Total salaried manpower 19,288 22,576 24,512 25,642 27,242 28,351 Source Ministry of Public Mdmi.nistration and Labor, Rapport Annuel 1969. and data provided by the Niger authorities. &]E:ccluding f<>reign experts and local authorities. 3/ PreLiminary estimates 3 Including public and nixed enterprises Underestimated Total wage earners are estimated at about 31,000 in 2969, if local public aurhoriu iec and independenL Government agencies are included. MANPOWER EMPLO!ED IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR (Servants excluded) ! 1959 ! 15961 ! 1962 I 1'963 1 1964 I 1965 1 1966 1 1967 ! 1968 ! 1969 t ! ! I! I ! l '- l I I -~ ! . I- ! I - I - AGRICULTURE I 0Q O! O *O Oh 0O O l O 170 1 O I I ! ! I I l I 1I I ! BANKING !See Comm.l 162 ' 260 I 299 1 412 1 462 1 514 1 562 î 576 1 665 1 i I I i I I I I t t l CCN,3-TR'IJUCTION 1 2,3611 3,4&8 4 2,855 1 3,448 1 3,460 i 3,277 1 3,874 1 3,283 t 3,854 1 4,216 t I I I t t t l t I I COMMERCE i 1,516! 1,361 1 1,018 I 1,216 ! 1,339 t 1,558 t 1,432 t 1,547 t 1,635 l 1,776 t ! I I i I t l l t I S MISCELLANEOUS ! 1,ShSi 48 1 716 1 173 1 480 t 648 l 690 l 715 l 734 1 786 .1 I!48 4 I 3 4 tl t I I HOTEL S/R I -i 312 I 203 l 186 l 184 I 234 1 207 l 198 1 209 i 210 1 I I It I I Ii I t INDUSTRY I 2411 580 t - i 552 1 741 t 992 1 1,374 t 1,880 1 1,601 1 1,885 z ! I ! I I l J I 1 1 l PIECHANICAL I I I I 1 1 l l I S INDUSTRIES I -! See Comm.A 409 1 273 1 296 1 311 I 306 1 307 1 345 1 391 1 ! ! l l ! l l I l I l MDIING l -! - l - I - l - l - I l - 226 1 2>9 ! CONSULTANT I -l l l l ! i J I I I FIRMS I t -I - i 229 1 365 1 528 i 612 1 à991 527 1 ¾70 1 ! I I I I t l l l t t TRANSPORTATION! 2771 904 1 858 i 640 il 818 t 869 t 1,126 t 1,141 l 1,136 1 1,163 i l ! t l l I - l I TOTAL I 6,1931 6,851 ! 6,319 1 7,016 ! 8,095 l 8,879 110,135 -13,166 110,360 Iii U51 l Source: Ministry of Public Administration and Labor Annex 9 Enploynient in the Private Sector by Skills and Nationalities % of Nigeriens Skills Total % Nigeriens Other Africans Europeans Arnong Total Unskilled Workers 4,104 37.8 3,953 151 - 96.3 Skilled Workers 2,433 22.4 1,811 617 5 74.4 Employees 2,889 26.6 1,929 693 267 66.8 Drivers 726 6.7 591 135 - 81.4 Technicians 390 3.6 80 57 253 20.5 Supervisory Personnel 318 2.9 35 18 265 11.0 TOTAL 10,860 100.0 8,399 1,671 790 77.3 Source: Ministry of Public Administration and Labor. 1968 Annual Report. Annex 10 Em4PLOYMJi APPLICArioNS OcORD)ED B THEEIPLODYM3NT SIRVICE DURING 1970 January February March April May June July August September October November December TOTAL Niamey 274 251 159 218 155 252 186 170 139 177 218 286 2,515 Maradi 192 132 71 91 53 60 60 67 96 121 118 248 1,309 Zinder 100 117 46 61 45 36 89 59 66 150 57 296 1,122 Agadez 170 142 86 31 18 33 25 58 110 90 49 55 867 736 642 362 401 301 381 360 354 411 538 442 885 5,813 (1) J-.JOB OPENINGS !EPRED IMUGH T hPIOYMNT SERVICE DURIG 1970 January February March April May jie JueY August Senten,zber October November December TOTAL Niamey 295 213 121 165 163 16?- 116 70 93 126 99 - 41 1,769 Maradi 41 29 35 27 23 29 20 5 12 18 78 83 400 Zinder 10 90 13 35 t 19 3Z' 23 21 56 49 8 369 Agadez 46 41 19 12> 17 33 13 15 18 6 10 7 353 392 373 188 355 216 248 181 113 144 206 236 239 2,891 (1) 80% of tho^ta1 consists of unsldlled unemployed work*s, generally former Dupils of elementary or seconda4y achools. Source t Ministry of Public AdiÎnistration aud Labor. t f Armnex il JOB Q?ENINGS FILLED DURING 1970 January February March April May June July Ïhuglust SeDtember October November December TOTAL Niamey 276 179 107 136 1î5 153 102 65 75 106 95 117 1556 Maradi 41 29 35 27 23 29 19 5 12 18 77 77 392 Zinder 9 12 13 34 13 19 31 16 20 56 47 8 278 Agadez 45 41 19 128 16 33 13 15 18 16 10 7 360 371 261 174 325 197 234 165 101 125 196 229 209 2587 JOB OPIGINGS N°Id BY NIGERIEU ePS0NNEL DRTG 1970 January February Narch April May AJune July ggust September October November December TOTAL Niamey 19 10 24 29 19 1 14 5 18 19 24 24 219 Maradi O O O O O O 9 o10 O 1 6 26 Zinder 1 12 10 1 0 0 1 7 1 0 12 0 45 Agadez 1 0 1 0 l. O 11- 0 O O O ° 14 21 22 35 30 20 14 35 12 29 19 37 30 304 Source: Ministry or Public Administration and Labor. Annex 12 ENROLIMENT EVOLUTION IN THE LAST TEN YEARS (1960-1970) Primary Education Secondary E(£ucation!/ Sohool Years ---. Total Public Total Public 1960/61 21,054 18,940 1,226 1,226 1961/62 26,609 24,293 1,506 1,50.6 1962/63 34t448 32,058 1,893 1,861 1963/64 43,556 40,406 2,,14 2,079 1964/65 50,348 46,500 2,351 2,276 1 96566 S5,146 51,3(f7 2.934 2,8r 1966/67 61,948 58,241 3,430 3,217 1967/68 70,657 66,099 3,9G8 3,788 1968/69 77,261 72,416 4,4.36 4,737 1969/70 81,964 76,825 4h, 771 43 / Inc1uding Teacher Training arnd Teclhnical Education . Source: Llinistry of Education "Etude sur le D8veloppctment de l'Enseigneinc:nt au Niger". Annex 13 ENROLLMENT BY GRADES - 1969-1970 / School level Grades |Tota Boys Private Europeans i tof to levrl _ _ ,-- I i _ - Primary C.I. 19,555 12,607 1,170 - Sehool C.P. 1.8461 12,221 984 -- C.E.1 14,459 9,3î2 891 - 94.2 C.E.2 11,-166 7,722 749 - C.M.1 8,823 | 63041 670 - C.M.2 9,2G00 6,590 675 . Total 81,964 54,563 5,139 - Secondary 6ème 1,674 1,303 124 73 __Schools ém_e 1,168 912 113 48 r 0 I 1st Cycle 41ème 918 695 77 34 j5me 602 451 ;5 51 Total x,362 3,361 34i9 206 2nid Cycle 2ème 238 190 14 43 1ère 103 79 26 il 0 5 Terminale 73 5sl 5 12 Total 414 321 66- GRAND TOTAL 4,77j5 3,685 394 272 - SEC. Higher Total 204 204 - 0 3 »]ucation (abroad) 86 .53 2, GRAND TOTAL 86,94k 58,452 5,533 j 272 - / Not including the post-primary vocational, the secondary professional and the various specialized centres controlled by ministries other than the L'inistry of Education. Source: Ministry of Education. Annex 14 LOWER SECONDARY EDUCATION ENROLLMENT BY GRADE, SEX, TYPE 0F INSTITUTION (1965-1970) 6 - - - 1965/66 1966 /67 1967/6 9i9 9/170 l. * Public system a) firs t cycle only) Nurnber of centres 46 54 61 679 Total enrolment 415 463 547 610 679 Boys 318 358 405 446 4.74 lst grade 135 171 210 224 208 2nd grade 114 109 1/4.6 170 205 3rd grade 79 107 99 123 152 4th grade 87 76 92 93 114 b) C.1 .7 1 Nunber of centres 15 16 16 17 17 Total enrolment ,1809 2, 152 2,555' 2,-971 3;758 Boys 1,670 2tC06 2,370 2,70` 3,176 lst grade 759 822 918 1,245 1, 694 2nd. grade 541 630 703 803 1,(069' 3rd. grade 296 476 583 555 619 4th grade 213 224 351 368 376 c) Cours Normaux (first -Ycle) Number of centres 2 2 2 2 -2 Total enrolment 265 314 327 343 ' -21 Boys - - -8- lst grade . 129 t33 72 81 2nd grade 52 102 125 82 63 3rd grade 48 42 . 88 111 66 4th grade 36 3Y 42 69 92 -z) prvte m .yst Number of centres (C,E.G.) 1 3 3 3 3 Total enrolment 117 201 265 349 466 Boys - 35 70 126 185 lst grade 38 109 109 124 187 2nd grad.e 31 36 92 11.3 1123 3rd grade 28 28 34 77 95 4Th grade 20 28 30 35 61 3) Grand totals 2) . Is - 19 22 23 24 24 CEnoy 2,66 3,130 3,694 4,273 5,124 Boys 1,988 2,1399 2,845 3t274 3,1335 Source: Ministry of Education. 'i Annex 15 UPPER SECONDARY EDUCATION (cAIES 5 - 7) (1965-1970) _ 1965/66 1966/67| 1967/68 1t638/69 1199/10 1. Public System a) c Nt.mlber of centres 1 1 1 1 1 Total enrolmernt 221 2.40 258 257 236 Buyrs 171 192 203 201 199 eiropeanol 52 52 66 99 59 5th grade 78 98 107 130 91 6th grade 67 70 81 72 84 7tlh grade 76 72 70 55 61 b) Bcole Normale Zinder Iu.nber of centres 1 1 1 1 1 Total enrolrjent 88 93 90 110 149 Boys 74 80 77 102 132 Europeans - - 5th graile 36 38 38 73 63 J 6th -raIe 34 33 30 20 (; . 7th grade 18 22 22 i7 ' 2. Private Sy tem Nu-nber of centres - 1 1 i . Total enrolment - 12 25 30 38 BOys, - - - - Europeans - - 1 - 5th graie - 12 19 14 20 6th grade - - 6 il 9 7th grade - - 5 9 G.Grand total. Zl(a+b) + 27 Centres 2 3 3 3 3 Enrolment 309 345 373 397, 423 Boys 245 272 280 303 331 Europeans 52 52 66 100 59 Sourcet !inistry of Education. Annex 16 (1965-1968) iuim.'bcer of studorntr Pield o? study 19651 1966 1967 1963 fumæ. ties 12 16 20 22 Educat i on 2 25 10 Law and Economics 14 20 21 2.4 Social Sciences 7 7 6 12 Natural Sciences - 1 19 30 52 Engineering 16 17 8i l4edical Science' 14. 19 25 Agriculture . 40 22 j 16 | 18 Unspecified . . . 55 51 37 4 O Total 201 194 167 20.ï So e - Source: Ministry5 of Educationi TEACHING STAFF IN PRIM~AY SCHOOLS (1965-1970) 1965-66 196&b-67 1967-68 , 1968-69 1 699-70 I I 1- , t Instituteurs 71 73 96 98 | 119 'Instituteurs adjoints 550 589 653 775 703 M'oniteurs titulaires 78 71 117 160 143 YMoniteurs a-axiliafres 718 792 842 805 1,055 T D T A L 1,417 1,505 1,708 1,838 | ,020 | Source: Xinis-try of Education - "Situation de l'enseignement au ler janvier 1966-1970" C> H Arxiex 18 PIUBLIC EXPENDITURE FOR EDUCATION BY TYPE OF EDUCATION (1963-1969) Yea.r Total Primary i tecca). ariri ot1 o 1 . *;9- general techicah- - 30,ando71h0 -in thousand Flrancs CrA 1960 524t990 334,500 I 1131l80 16; 600 30,000 30?710 1961 690,070 458,780 148,460 16,460 39,000 27,370 1962?.,/ 611,405 373t229 164,495 10,704 8,115 54t562 1963 926,239 557,753 230,300 15,20.2 4,OO0 82,9834 1964 9669380 588,658 274,247 12,846 38,215 52,1414 1965 998,614 619,646 | 246,869 21,182 40,00 | 70,917 1966 1;133e943 740,528 | 246,994 16t856 39IQ1 9013,492 1967 1,245,625 763,620 316,646 22,308 45,000 98,051 1968 1,381,272 880,530 3199477 16,435 45t,0o 119,83O 1969 1,451,505 906,233 362,303 25,619 42,000 115,350 - in per cent 1960 100 63.7 ! 21.6 3.2 5.7 5-8 1961 100 66.4 21.5 2.4 5.7 4.0 1962 100 61.0 26.9 1.8 1,3 9.0 1963 100 60,2 24.9 1.6 4.3 9.0 1964 100 60.9 28.4 143 4.0 5.4 1965 100 62.1 24.7 2.1 4.0 7.1 1966 100 65.3 21.8 1.5 3.4 8.0 1967 100 61.3 25.4 1.8 3.6 7.9 1968 100 63.7 23.1 1.2 3.3 8.7 1969 100 62.4 25.0 1.8 2.9 7Ç9 j/ Scholarships ,/ Fiscal Year ôf nine months Soutrce: Ministry of Education. I y PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION BY PURPOSE (1963-1969) (thousand Prancs CFA,) Exzenditure Items 1953 i1964 1965 1967 1968 1969 Recurring expenditure 89i t89 906,593 968,360 10f86,078 1t215,345 1t295,813 1,413,205- Salaries 5187959 534,121 573,731 666,753 736,416 811,178 863,03 Teaching materials .4,675 23,600 7,900 3,000 2,490 - | Upkeep of buildings 11,302 5,523 5,380 3,600 6,330 2,000 4t,2 Operation of plant .92,831 177,184 211,990 233,856 263,856 261,188 313,933 Scholarships: | a) Secondary education 105,422 103,256 109,534 110,031 130,533 140,727 145,983 b) Higher education 40,000 38,215 40,000 39,073 45, 000 45,000o 42,000 Subsidi6s to private education 22,200 19,694 |19825 29,760 30,720 35,72I 39|lg,0 Capital expenditure 30,350 59,787 47,865 30,254 85|458 5459 r '80 Total espenditure Lc'26)239 966l380 98 514 1 625 272 1e3811,4515 Source: Ministry of Education. H Anrex 20 TOTAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT BY SOURCEt 1967 AND 1968 Source Contract, 1 efectealanc Amount 1960198 pex '0*.9.68 million francs CFA National Investment Budget 1,739 475 502 616 F.A.C. 5, 446 1,O10 1,205 2,046 F.E.D. 9,411 1,206 743 5,685 U.S.A.I.D. 786 29 136 589 Other external sources 3,345 850 1,191 1,065 TOTAL 20727 3,570 3,777 10,001 National Investmant Budget 8.4 13.3 13.3 6.2 F.A.C. 26.3 28.5 31.9 20.5 F.E.D. 45.4 33.8 19.7 56.8 U.S.A.I.D. 3.8 0.8 3*6 5.9 Other external sources 16.1 23.e 31.5 10.6 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 PUBLIC INVESTEM , IN EDUCATION BY SORCE 1967 AND 1968 I. effected in SourceSourcealnc 'Ctracted i Balance 1967 1968 per 30.9.6 IIn ctousand francs CFA National Investment Budget 40,065 9.,2349 22,354 6,858 F.A.C. 829,500 `2435,516 76,685 335,643 F.E.D. 1v798 ,548 ,:`456017 249,531 413,919 U.S.A.I.D. 30:620 - 30,620 - Other external sources - - TOTAL 2,698,733 700,467 378,190 756,420 National Investment Budget 1.5 1.3 5.18 0.9 F.A.C. 30.8 33.7 20.4 44.4 F.E.D. 66.6 65.0 66.i 51.7 U.S.AJ.ID. 1.1 - 7.7 Other External sources - - - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Source: Commissariat Général au Développement, Investissements publics 1968 Contrôle par opérations. Annex 21 GROWTH XF COOPERATIVE AND MTUALISTS GROUPS (1963/64L-1969/70) 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 Cooperative markets 7 27 30 45 50 64 69 CooperatLves 7 27 30 79 115 159 164 Mutuelles (G.M.V.) 143 363 542 912 1"108 1396 1,517 Members 2>354 6,282 7e403 24,176 46,229 61,754 69,627 Population concerned 15,530 41,460 48,860 159 560 305,110 407,580 459,540 Percentage of total population 0.5 1,4 1.5 4.6 8.7 11.3 12.2 Source: UNCC Anmex 22 ORIGIN OF GD:P -1966-1969 (In millions of CFA francs at current prices) 1966 1967 196b 1969 1966..1969 1, Agriculture 31,814 30,708 28,287 32,788 3 2. Livestock 16,937 17,678 16,807 io,814 -36 3. Hunting 348 410 420 485 39 4. Forestry 3,940 h,hh8 4,811 5,597 42 5. Fisheries 766 863 862 898 17 6. Mining 36 34 118 103 186 7. Industries 55,19 5,6i1 5,814 5,893 8.7 8. Services 17,980 18 ,201 155853 17,183 -4.5 9. Energy 4h,6o6 5,020 5,800 6,600 43 10. Construction 4h247 4,100 5,607 9,027 112 11. Administration 4,634 5,097 54h00 5,562 20 12, Household 200 205 210 216 8 GDP total 90,927 92, 374 89,1989 95,166 h*.6 1-7 Data for these sectors vere provided by the "Conmiissariat Général au D6veloppement". 8-12 The growth of these sectors has been estimated by the mission by usîng official 1966 national account figures as the basis for projection. 8 The growth of services has primarily been related to the increase of export and inport activities. This sector is probably slightly underestimated. 9 Energy - related to the gr-owth of electricity production by Nigelec. 10 Construction - related to the increase of publie investment expenditures for road construction., bridges and public buildings. Estimates for the construc- tion work at Arlit have also been made. This sector is perhaps slightly overestimated. il Administration - related to the increase of budget expenditures for salaries and wages. Source: Data provtded by Niger authorities and mission estimates. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 1967/68-1970/71 Production Area under Cultivation (In Thousands of Metric Tons) X (In Thousands of Hectares) Productivity (k/ha) 19676 81 1968/69 1969/70 1970/7X 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1967/6-- 196d/69 13969/m Millet 1,000 733 1,095 700 1,865 1,895 Beans 2,272 536 385 48o 77 74 160 - 689 744 Sorghum 968 112 121 156 350 215 289 160 530 557 Cassava 596 508 386 447 170 198 199 - 2)4 27 Rice 28 9,500 9,070 8,970 33 39 39 - 12 Corn 15 15 913 960 1,179 3 2 2 - 5 4 Sugar Cane 3 575 611 579 21 25 25 - 1 1 Potatoes 1 19,600 18,500 16,000 13 10 9 - 1 1 Onions 1 11,330 10,270 9,810 44 39 27 - 2 2 Others 2 16, 950 15,700 14,900 Cash Crops 374 449 340 Groundnuts (unshelled) 298 252 207 130 357 Cotton 432 320 840 498 540 (Seed) 6 7 13 8 17 17 20 358 260 500 TOTAL Source: Ministry of Rural Economy, Division of Agriculture, Rapport Annuel., 1969. /1 Estimates. |x NIGER' S OFFICIAL IMPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL ORIGIN (1963-1970) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1/ Rice 2,007 888 2,126 2/ n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Milk and dairy products 435 790 839 716 522 215 Tropical fruit 851 92 168 167 91 1 Cola nuts 8,005 3,498 3,662 2,624 2,428 750 Granulated sugar) 1,120 2,029 1,529 696 2,280 479 ) 6,299 6,209 Lump sugar ) 5,336 6,386 5,643 2,704 5,342 829 Wh-at flour 1,461 1,437 1,435 3,596 3,523 2,802 3,519 499 Processed cereal products 386 450 501 385 508 103 Processed vegetable and fruit 409 617 782 814 792 175 Beer 2,134 1,933 2,36l4 1,912 2,20U3 1,699 2,001 216 OlJines 933 1i,,129 1,040 914 888 98 Cigarettes 198 377 256 235 193 73 Cotton goods 1,510 5,237 5,044 4,424 5,084 3,845 4,o6D 1,212 Source: Data Drovided by Iligerien Authorities. 1 First three months g/ First nine months E2corts of M4jor Agicultural Products by Niger Quantities in tons Value in million CFAF 1960 1961 1962 1963 19614 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1. Quantities Shelled groundnuts 50J525 67,281 72,140 91,400 75,169 865400 163,567 176,600 162,447 128,296 Groundnut cakes 5,864 6,196 5,528 3,604 17,548 6,755 16,307 7,484 5,506 4,412 Groundnut oil 4,673 4,974 1,911 3,141 5,491 4,811 8,789 7,481 3,792 2,546 Cotton fiber - - 2 1,064 1,947 1,905 2,039 2,588 2,905 2,163 Beans 1,323 4,120 14,149 6,994 2,564 14,416 4,102 5$,13 12,825 3,851 Onions - 4,950 5,680 1,525 1,133 4,029 3,568 3,028 2,328 1,795 Millet and borghum 110 3,155 3,459 2,909 749 13,263 - 948 - 2. Value Shelled groundnuts 1,807 2,580 2,666 3,219 2,699 3,060 5,330 5,961 4,713 3,721 Groundnut cakes 68 81 60 38 121 ' 69 213 108 78 43 Groundnut bil 364 300 119 176 412 283 661 531 330 191 Cotton fiber - - - 140 270 260 300 361 393 297 Beans 83 77 188 100 19 299 125 171 385 116 Onions - 39 67 25 30 64 55 49 46 126 Source: Data provided by Nigerien Authorities x Annex 26 4'xpor-t Price. Structu.re and ?4arketing of' GroundnL-to 1.965/L66-1-970/71 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 197/71 I. Export price structure (In CFA francs per kilogrnm or ahellod lnuts) Cost price, c.i. . Producer price 22.81 22.15 18. 04 17.83 Taxes 20.00 21.00 3.75 3.00 2.75 2.?5 Other contj/ 2Ô-5 2.25 20.92 22.q7 20.97 20.72 22.48 24.30 Trotal 47.48 48.12 41.76 40.80 44.73 47.55 F'rench Lufaranteed export price, c.i.f. 49.06S' 49.13 -- -- World market price, c.i.e. European port 46.45 39.50 38.70 45.44 52.47 54.oo B,.n.rop..an i vromini*ty(FEM!) tn.rCt. cost price, c.i.f. 46h50 48.42 41.72 44.00 -- -- Producer price (21.25) (22.45) (17-63) (21.25) (--( Taxes (3.75 (300) (275) (?.25) -- Other coats <21.50 (22.97) (21.34' (20.50) Il. Production and marketing (Tn thousands of metric tons àf shelled nuts) Production 182.8 190.1 196.8 175.4 167.2 126.0 SONARA purchases (156.1) (191.3) (181.8) (163,7) (164.8) On-fann consumption (9? 0) and stocks (26:7) (-91.) (15.0) (13.7) (2.4) (34.0) Sales of SONARA 153.1 191.5 (15.0 163.6 162.4 58( 0 Exports 133.2 175.1 159.0 139.3 131.4 ... At French guaranteed prices (100.2) (150.5) (--) (--) (--) At world market prices (33.0) (24.) (159.0) (1.300) ()(- Sales to local reiineriea 19.9 16.4 23.0 24.4 31.0 30.0 Exporte of groundt (10.6) (13.0) (1M.0) (18.3) Local consumptionJ (25.3) (9.3) (3.4) (4.0) (6.1) (5.7) Source: Data provided by the Niger authorities. 1/ O?fiicinl price scales (ba.xmes) fixed at the beginning or each crôp senson. °/ Tncludes varioUs internal costs (e.g., hendling,storege, packing, comiessions pald overseas, unloadlinr . selling).- transportation, insura-nce, 2/ Tho French guaranteed price was CFPA49,13 per kilogram for th.e first 90,000 tons kilogramil:C> the remainOer. of the quota and CFAF 48.50 per 4/ Coniputed by the equivalent tonnage of shelled groundnuts. ./ Pre11minary, based on SONARA's position in February 1971. Annex 27 Status as of January 31, .1970 of the Productivity Program Financed by FED (thousands of CFAF) Price support - Structural Groundnuts improvement, F A F A F A 1964/65 crop year 163,491 14,282 40,875 6,000 25,409 25,529 1965/66 crop year 237,500 631 19,782 33,191 182,289 91,062 1966/67 crop year 121,440 18,447 33,750 29,471 187,800 675261 1967/68 crop year 504,000 397,937 - - - 1967/68 crop year - - 2,500 - - - 1968/69 crop year - - - 178,295 118,385 1,026,431 4315297 96,907 68,662 574,793 294,237 F = Forecast financing A = Actual financing Source: European Dbvelopyment Fund Annex 28 DISTRIBUTION 0F INPUTS BY THE AGRICULTURAL SERVICE (1965/66-1969/70) 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 Fertilizers (tons) 415.6 564.4 601.9 564.4 804.8 Fungicides (kg) 4,893 10,594 10,590 8,654 9,323 Insecticides (T) 38.0 62.2 40.2 41.7 46.0 Improved groundnut seeds (T) 871.7 1,120.1 2,096.8 1,057.9 1,348.4 Ungraded groundnut seeds 1,111.0 2,000.0 - - 484.5 Source: Annual reports from the Agricultural Service. Annex 22 DEVELOPMENT OF COTTON PRODUCTION (1964/65-1970/71) 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 L RainÎ ed agriculture Surface (ha) 14,900 16,542 16,422 17,135 16,870 21,750 19,365 Production (t) 6,807 6,077 6,708 6,080 6,790 9,895 8,000 Yield (kg/ha) 458 367 418 351 399 458 414 Irrigated agriculture Surface - - - 170 275 466 - Production - - 189 218 623 Yield - - - 817 798 1,336 - Total production index in relation to 1962/63 145 129 1l3 131 149 224 Source: UNCC annual report 1969/70; Cotton service a Mission estimates COTTOI~N - PRICE STRUCTUIRE 0F EXPORTS,L MARiKETING AND SUBSIDIES (1963/64-1970/71) 1963/619 6964/65 196/66 1966/67 19/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 Producer price (CFAy per kg. of cotton seed) 32.60 32.60 32.60 30.00 28.50 28.50 28.58 29.60 Ginning yield (%) (33.56) (34.00) (34.05) (39.89) (35.86) (33.52) (34.90) (35.50) / Cost price of cotton fiber par kg. 97.13 95.88 95.74 88.98 70.47 85.02 81.89 83.38 Taxes 2/ 3037 1.75 1.10 1.10 1.00 0.40 0.40 0.40 Other costs 51.62 50.44 42.21 53.97 54.29 54.64 58.46 55.02 Total fiber cost price per kg., L.o.b. 152.12 148.07 149.05 1ls4.05 134.76 14O.O6 140.35 138,80 ;/ Average price f.o.b. (per kg. of cotton fiber) j/ 140.42 143.40 130.04 132.29 140.00 145.81 147.77 Profits or losses (-) of ex- ports (CFcA per kg. of cotton fiber) -11, 70 -4.67 -19 é'-1 -:1.76 46.24 5. 75; 7.42 Target cost price.-ol EEC, f.o.b. 148.50 145.00 143.00 i/ 141.38 137.82 137.00 Marketed production (in T. of cotton fiber) 1.802 2.422 1.162 2ç330 2.192 2.349 2.927 / - a) Price support (million CFAF) - paid by CEE 14.3 3.9 33.5 33.8 - - - - paid by CSPPN 1.7 - 7.7 - - - Total price support 16. 3.9 41.2 3 - - b) Transportation subsidies paid by CSPPN 8.7 12.0 /_Estimates. g/ 1963/64 - 1969/70: oLficial; 1970/71: official price scale. 3/ Of which 2 francs for seeding J/ Actual. / Revised by EEC and set at CFAF 144.28 per kg. Of which 986 T delivered locally to the NITEX textile plant, i.e-. 34% of the total. exports through Nigeria. L/ In 1965/66 transport subsidies were discontlinuéd in view of the lesser cost of shipping Source: Data supplied by the Niger authorities. Annex 31 AGRICULTURAL FRODUCTION - CJRREIENT PERICES (1966-1969) (Million CFAF) Food crops 1966 1967 1968 1969 Millet 14,629 124333 10,605 12,792 Sorghum 4,051 4;l18 2,663 2,733 Wheat 224 196 187 196 Corn 48 48 30 27 Paddy Rice 374 552 800 1,063 Other cereals 76 55 67 60 Niebe beans 1,066 lh2 1 0 1,993 2,953 Voandzou (beans) 455 449 384 574 Cassava 2,355 2)279 2,450 2,967 Sweet potatoes 84 166 164 131 Dates 156 156 156 156 Onions 564 750 843 968 Tomatoes 353 371 399 334 Peppers 1,259 1,494 1,742 1,813 Other fruit and vegetable 1,948 2,021 2,479 2,853 Raw tobacco 33 36 27 27 Other oleaginous crops (sesame) 33 33 39 36 Sugar cane 154 255 289 209 Other vegetables 185 194 201 214 Total 1 28,047 26,716 25,518 30,106 Main cash crops Unshelled groundnuts 4,068 4,332 3,154 2,916 Seed cotton 261 234 260 374 Total 2 4,329 4,566 3,414 3,290 Total 1 + 2 32,376 31:282 28,932 33,396 Seed utilization - 562 - 574 - 645 - 608 Value,added 31,814 30>708 28,287 32,788 AgrLcultural population ('000 inhabitants) 2,635 2,703 2,775 2,846 Agricultural production per Agricultural inhabitant (CFAF) 12,074 11,361 10,194 11,521 Monetary income per capita (CFAF) 1,643 1,689 1,230 1,156 Source: Service Statistics Commissariat Général au Développement. Annex 32 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION - 1969 PRICES ____ (1966-1969) (million CFAF) Food crops 1966 1967 1968 1969 Millet 10,741 12*773 9,314 12,792 Sorghum 2,682 3,366 2,166 2,733 Wheat 201 190 200 196 Corn 39 46 32 27 Paddy Rice 560 893 1,070 1,063 Other cereals 56 57 59 60 Niebe (beans) 1,361 1,610 1,934 2,953 Voandzou (beans) 480 539 365 574 Cassava 2,221 2,553 2,958 2,967 Sweet potatoes 99 190 146 131 Dates 156 156 156 156 Onions 10269 1,558 1,366 968 Tomatoes 409 429 436 334 Peppers 1,693 1,718 1,766 1,813 Other fruit and vegetable 2,355 2,392 2,904 2,853 Raw tobacco 41 34 27 27 Other oleaginous crops (sesame) 33 34 35 36 Sugar cane 105 179 207 209 Other vegatables 194 200 202 214 Total 1 24,675 28,917 25,343 30,106 Cash crops Unshelled groundnuts 3,735 3s848 3,548 2,916 Seed cotton 299 235 261 374 Total 2 3,984 4t083 3,809 3,290 Total 1 s 2 28,659 33e000 29,152 33,396 Seed utilization - 537 - 580 - 668 - 608 Value added 28,122 32 420 28,484 32,788 Agricultural population ('000 inhabitants) 2,635 2,703 2,775 2,846 Agricultural production per agricultural inhabitant (CFAF) 10,672 11,994 10,265 11i521 Monetary income per capita (CFAF) 1,512 1,511 1,373 1,156 Source: Service Statistics Commissariat Général au Développement. .Annex 33 LIVESTOCK ESTIMATES (1964-1969)_ ('000 heads) Year Cattl6 Sheep Goats Horses Donkeys G-amels and muales' 1964 3,900 2.,100 5~0 150 315 360 1966 4>.000 2,150 5.,800 160 331 360 1968 4h,200 2.,150 5,800 170 360 360 1969 3,850 2,030 5,460 170 335 324~ Source: Service de l'Elevage- Niamey Arniex 34 LIVESTOCK ESTIMATES FOR 1970 Species Number Average price Total value CFAF/Head (CFAF billion) Cattle 4,100,000 8,500 34 ,850 Sheep 2,100,000 1,500 3,15O Goats 5,900,000 l00O 5,900 Horses 175,000 12,000 2,100 Donkeys 350,000 500 175 Camels 335,000 10,000 3,350 Poultry 8,000,000 50 400 TOTAL . *. . 4.9...4,925 Rounded up total ...... 50 bil-lion CFA Source - Mission estimates. Annex 3 ESTIMATES OF LIVESTOCK LOSSES (1968-1969) Livestock balance ist quarter 1969 Losses last quarter 1969 Cattle 45391000 548,000 3,.50,00 Sheep 2,247,000 216,000 2,M31,000 Goats 6,o63,000 597,000 5,466,000 Camels 360,000 36,ooo 324,Ooo Total actual Existing Livestack Forecast of Livestock and theoretical December 31, 1969 December 31, 1969 loss December 31, 1969 Cattile 3,5850,000 4,456,000 . 606,000 Sheep 2,031,000 2,281,000 2%Q,000 Goats 5,466,000 6,154,000 688,000 Camels 324,000 367,000 43,000 Total actual and theoretical I10s Unit price Capital loss December 31, 1969 (CFAF) (million? CFAF) Cattle 606,000 5,670 3,437 Sheep 250,000 1,500 375 Goats 688,000 800 550 Camaels 43,000 8,000 344 Total loss 4,706 Source: Mission estimates. Annex 36 RECORDBD EXPORTS OF LIVESTOOK ON TM HOOF (1961-1969) (rumber of heads) Donkeys JY,stination Cattle She Goats Horses and mules Camels Algeria 1 4,504 287 1 - 186 ivory Coast 1,475 7,998 921 5 - Dahomey 6,003 2 ,866 " 4,511 - - Ghana 9,763 5,074 6,564 1 - - Upper Volta 258 81 il - - 469 Liberia 33 - - - - ILybia - 2,779 13 - - 224 Mauritania 30 - - - - 40 Nigeria 44,925 8,913 10,909 5 290 310 Togo 1,779 1,014 461 1 - - TOTAL 1969 64,267 33,230 23,677 13 290 1,229 Total 1968 67,335 27,592 17,235 33 115 1,589 Total 1967 - 605291 43,330 16,862 1,741 352 2,736 Total 1966 74,695 71,114 22,964 744 226 2,896 Total 1965 74,742 79,811 61,508 216 27 987 Total 1964 57,354 82,0o6 23,652 165 18 1,146 Total 1963 58,985 78,463 36e742 34 900 100 Total 1962 62,472 80,420 23,841 56 l,5l7 147 Total 1961 52,954 86,833 24,056 84 1,281 181 )/ The figures of recorded exports of cattle on the hoof constitute about 1/3 of the e8tîaàted exports originating from Niger. Source: Ministry of Rural Eoonory. DIRECT TAXATION ON LIVESTOCK Annex 37 (million CFAF and percentage) tu!e~~i-ear 1969 Taxable Forecast Assessments % Collections % Sesttled breeders 577.0 556.0 96.3 482.0 86.7 Nomads 355.0 412.0 116.0 210.0 51.0 Assesament list 1.8 0-4 22.2 0.4 100.0 Total 933.8 968.4 103.7 692.4 71.5 Grazing tax 20.0 12.0 60.0 12.0 100.0 Fiscal Year 1970 Settled breeders 536.0 524.0 98.0 475.0 90.6 Nomads 335.0 366.o 109.0 268.0 73.2 Assessment list 1.0 0.6 60.0 0.5 50.0 Total 872.0 89006i 102.1 743.5 83.5 Grazing tax 20.0 26.0 130.0 26.0 130.0 Other taxes (nnual average) Customs: *xports and imports estimates...... 150 License tax and estimates 0f industrial and commercial profits...... 50 Total 200 plus' livestock tax; and, 750 MFCFA the gruing'tax 15 " Total 765 Total average tax receipta levied on livestock.... 965 M Source: Ministry of Finance EXIPORTS 0F REFRIGRTPMA 361S) t,ns Total Destinations Cattle Sheep Horses Off ls Total 69 Total 68 Total 67 Total 66 1965/64/63 62/61/60 Ivory Coast 44h6.3 128.2 21.2 2.9 595.6 462.0 4:15.6 529.6 - Dahomey 7.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 10.0 6.4 20.2 51.3 Gabon 5.9 0.2 - 6.1 - - - Ghana 33.2 26.7 - 7.3 67.2 Togo 23.0 1.3 2.2 0.4 26.9 13.7 h140 16.7 - TOTAL 1969 515.8 157.9 24.2 1.9-, 708.8 - - - - Total 1968 371.4 99.2 7.9 6.0o h8h.5 - - - Total 1967 351.4 112.6 4.5 4.0 - - 472.5 -* - - Total 1966 498.7 93.7 8.2 2.8 - - - 603. Total 1965 316.7 86.6 8.5 1.2 - - - 413.0 Total 1964 314.0 96.2 11.2 - - - - 4421.4 Total 1963 342.6 102.7 23.5 - - - 468.8 4 412.3 Total 1962 291.8 101.7 18.8 - Total 1961 249.9 74h1 22.8 - - - - 346.8 Total 1960 183.4 ? ? - Source: Ministry of Rural Econom;y (Service de l'Elevage). Annex 39 MIXED ENTERPRISES Governmcnt participation Initial invetz,ent in nbare capitel , Business Yesr ut estaUlishaient HsJor sctivities (I turnover ln 1968/69 nmillions oe cFA francs) (In ner cent) (In mil-ions of, CFA francs) Cr4dit du 21ger (CN) 1958 Lbans for bousiug con- 120 5/ struction nd equip- 74 aient 6 fBanque de D veloppcement de la Edpublique du N4iger (PDR1) 1961 Coaerci&l and devel- 450j 55 ofeant banking 500 goeiétc Hlnière du Niger (WOND) 1961 Xining reoesrch, partic- 58 75 ularly csuiterite 59 g 8cidte tlationale des Trinsrporto *1962 Public transportation Urbaina ln 28 50 22 (22KTU) the azi urban centers Snci4t6 2lqlrrenne de Cownerciali- l96S Wholeeale and rotail 300 27 &,ation et de Producti)n (COP20- trade l,9C8 NIGEL2) 60ciet6i4 Nig6rienne dc Coimeriali- oa .ion de l'Arachide (SCtiARA) 1962 Groundnut export 304 50 6,921 Soci6td NiEçri,en.c den Grandr. Travaux du Niger (S?NGT22) 1962 Publie works 202 241 4o6 Sociét6 WNtionalc dea Transports NigErions (Sffl) 1963 Sosd serrvices 647 51 679 Le Ris du tiigcr 1964 Pice processing sud ... 96 mzketTng 19 Sociét6 Nig6riennc de Fabrications 1965 Production and sale of 44'àlliques 46 82 163 (SOIIIFAME) office equipment and msateriala Air liger 1966 Air transport vithin 37 66 figer IC? goci4td WatIonelc de 1966 Cement production snd 1,677 93 Cimenterie (SlC) rarketing 786 SocidtA Ii2dri.nne de 1966 Produetion of nny,atro,- 45' 92 Cdrsriquec (SONICSM) tion matteriels1 1 Soci6té de Troensforation du 1967 Millet and sorghua proceas. 55 4 Mil et Sorgho (AOTRAMIL) ing end marketing 29 S.ciét4 Nigdrienne d'E.xploi- 1968 Production sad tation £xport Of 185 Nearly 100 des R,eeov:rces bides, z.inn, nd other 167 Ani.mles (SO1ÎEM>ji) eninal products 8Sciété lîi.l6ritcnne den 1970 Production or fruitsnd su ... Primeurs (s0?itPluR) vegetablea .. Société PIF-ri,nne pour la Proontion de l ilevage (SONILE) 1970 Liveatock developnent ...... Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger (OPVN) 1970 Marketing snd stabiliza- tion of prices of subsit.tence cropa Sociétd NigdrIenne d'Urbnisri 1970 Nousing construction et de Construction Immouilière ...... (Soemc I Office du Lait du llger (OLUNT) 1971 iilk processirg ... . Source: Data provided by the Niger &utborities. 1/ fThe 225N boldu su addItional 18 per cent ot the chare capital. 2/ Sh"e capital. TShe BDRNboldo an additlonal 11 per cent of the sbhre capital. ,v Sunxnary of the 1968 Iwvestment Code Approval reglme Agreement regime Regular regime t (Régime de droit coemun) (Régime d agrément) (Régime conventionnel) Conditions for eligibility Investment of more than CFAF 10 million Noncommercial enterprise Investment of more than CFAP 500 million Employment for more than 10 individuals Etployment for more than 500 individuals Value afded of more than CFA? 500 million Duration of concessions 5 years 3 to 10 yeers 10 to 20 y-ars Advantages provided Exemptions frcui DLMptions from tons frcm License tees License fees License tees Real estate tax Real estate or uining tax Real estate or mining tax Profit tax Profit tax Profit tax Consumptico tax Consumption tex Tax on prcperty in mortmain Tax on prciperty in mortmain Import taxes and fiscal duties Import taxes'and fiscal duties on materials and machinery on materiele and machinery Reductions Reductions By 50-100 per cent in export duties By 50-100 per cent in export duties on finished and semifinished on finished and semifinished products products At least33 per cent in the turnover Possibly lesa than 33 per cent in the tax .tur3m9ver tax General Tax increases cannot be applied, although tax reductions are applicable. Source, Data provided by the Niger euthorities. iX Annex >41 M9fU&L pRoDuCTION (1966-1969) (int metric tons) 1966 1967 1968 1969 Cassiterite 83.3 80.6 103.0 124.2 Clay Je 790 2,940 4,182 15,000 Gypsum 925 1, 588 1i,445 1,500 Limestone 22,8341 30,809 29j665 28,000 Silica 2,0)13 1, 849 2,624 1,4o00 Source: Rapport Annuel 19i9, Direction des Mines et de la Géologie, Ministère des 'lravaux Publics, des Transpcrts, des Mines et de l'Urbanisme. Annex 42 SEMI-PUBLIC TRADIG- AND TRANSPORT CO(MPANIES SONARA Société nigèrienne de commercialisation de l'arachide COPRO-NIGER Société nationale de commerce et de production ONPPC Office national de produits pharmaceutiques et chimique SONERAN Société nationale d'exploitation des ressources animales SNTU Société nationale des transports urbains SNTN Société nationale des transports nigériens Source: Data provided by Nigerien Authorities * .,",4"n- ,~~~~~~~~a . . ... X.**X.*t9. SOCIETE NIGERIENNE DE C1ERCIALISATION ET DE PRODUCTION Statement of7IncoM7, 1965166-19/O. (In millions of CFA francs) 1965/66 i966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 Sales 2,492.0 2,488.4 1,821.8 1,909.6 3,427.8 Cost of goods sold 2,15648 2,158.5 1,550.2 la865.8 3,312.5 Gross profit 335.2 329.9 271.6 43.8 ;115e3 Selling, administrative,rand general expenses 181.0 Financial costs 180.0 161.9 136.0 79.0 97.4 100.1 127.1 Amortization and depreciation allowances 123e1 103.3 23.7 39.5 9.5 8.2 10.0 Operating profit or deficit (-) 33.1 10.3 -26.9 -223.5 -77-0 Other inconé Interest and dividends -- Commiss ions ------Insurance, indemnities,and returns of - - - amounts overpaid ------Exceptional and other profits -- 17.2 22.6 48.1 9.4 60.2 Other deductions -34.6 -32.1 ------Net profit 15.7 0.8 21.2 -- -- Total cash generation/ 39.4 4o.3 30,7 8.2 10.0 Source: Data provided by the NTiger authorities. 1/Purchases, net movement in stocks, transportation,and taxes (direct and indirect). 2/ Personnel services, supplies,.and miscellaneous N/î'et profit operating expenditures. plus amortization and depreciation allowances. COMP.ARISON 0F MINJ34U WAGE RATES FOR NON.-AGRI.CULTURAL WORKERS IN~BCEAO COUNTRIES (1963~-1970) / Dates Ivory Coast Dahomey-. Upper Volta Mauritania/ Niger Senegal Togo (In CFA francs per hour) January 1, 1963 40.00 34.00 29.00 35.20 27.00 44.oo 27.50 January 1, 1964 42.40 -- -- 29.70 January 1, 1965 -- 38.08 - - January 1, 1966 -- January 1, 1967 ------January 1, 1968 -- July 1, 1968 46.64 ------50.60 -- January 1, 1969 46.64 38.o8 29.00 40.50 27.00 50.60 29.70 April 1, 1969 ------October 1, 1969 ------30.00 -- -- December 1, 1969 -- -- 31.00 -- -- January 1, 1970 58.30 38.08 31.00 4o.50 30.00 50.60 35.64 (Annual rate of increase, in per cent) January 1, 1969-70 +25.00 -- +6.9 -- +11.1 -- +20.00 January 1, 1963-70 (Average annual rate) +5.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +2.0 +3.8 Source: BCEAO, Rapport Annuel. I/ Dahomey: the minimum oif the salary scale was increased by 4 per cent to CFAF? 39.60 on January 1, 1969; but this did not apply to governent employees or to those in semipublic companies. Mauritania: the minimum salary was fixed at CFAF 41.30 in zone 1 and CFAF 35.70 in zone 2 on January 1, 1i INDEX 0F EUROPEAN CONSUMER PRICES IN NIAMEY (1965-1970) (November 15, 1964-December 15, 1964 = 100) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. March June Sept. Dec. March June Sept. Dec. Food 102.8 107.6 117.7 116.1 111.6 123.0 122.3 119.2 118.1 126.3 122.1 128.7 Clothing 106.2 100.0 112.8 122.0 120.6 121.0 121.8 124,5 129.0 17.7 129.0 130,3 Gas, water, and electricity 106.6 106.6 lo6.6 106.6 106.6 3o6.6 106.6 106.6 1o6.6 1o6.6 106.6 îo6.6 HouËehold 103.4 1o2,1 111.9 iit.0 118,3 116.9 115.8 115.2 117.4 116.'7 123.2 125.1 Sei*vb.nts 100.0 100.0 138.6 138.6 138.6 138.6 138.6 138.6 i38.6 i4o.6 140.6 14o.6 MigéG1laneous 98.9 110;7 118.-4 -1-299 130.2 I3ô.6 134.0 134.0 14102 139.9 142.2 144.1 General 102.2 107.7 117.9 120.7 118.8 124.2 12.47 124.9 125.2 128,2- 127.6 131.2 ...... Sources: Commissariat Général au Développement, Bulletin Statistique; authorities. de and data provided by the Niger INDEX 0F AFRICAN CONSUMER PRICES IN NIAMEY (1965-1970) (July l, 1962-June 30, 1963 - 100) 1965 1966 1967 . î968 1969 1970 Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Dec. March June Sept. Dec. ch June Food and beverages 3.Q3.3 122.5 120.8 111.6 113.0 134.6 145.3 135.2 126.4 127.0 135.6 e-lothing 100.4 103.9 106.5 102.8 108.5 108.9 103.3 107.9 1100. 113.2 112.0 \ lltilities and household 110.2 107.7 118.4 113.6 113.6 113.6 120.8 121.8 127.6 122.7 127.6 IMiscellaneous 113.1 113.7 113.5 113.2 117.1 118.6 114.8 120.9 122.5 123.2 12648 I General 105.3 116.9 117.4 110.9 113.2 126.2 131.8 127.6 123.6 124.1 130.0 Sources: Commissariat Général au D6veloppement, Bulletin de Statistique; and data provided by the Nigèr authorities. II t, I Annex >4 OVERALL CASH TRANSACTIONS OF THE GOVERMENT (î965/666-1969/70) (Îillion CFAP)- 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 Ordînary budget (net) 1,056 'T1 938 -227 991 Revenues 8,507 8,6164 9,342 9,142 Expenditures -7,451 10,941 -8,573 -8,4o4 *-9,369 -9,950 Investment budget expenditures -888 -899 -961 -627 -936 Extrabudgetary transactions 1/ (net) -168 -6- -124 -263 -355 Over-all deficit -890 7 .1,117 -300 Financing Foreign loans and grants 250 150 305 449 866 French government ass; st ce 250 0thernU 150 260 354 -- -- 592 45 95 274 Use of nonbank resources (net) -250 521 157 281 71 Peposits with French Treasury -120 163 219 Deposits with local -27 34 agencies 56 -28 82 -27 Peposits of public and -83 mixed enterprises 24 41 -10 Holdings of customs duty -2 -- bills -45 306 Reserve Pund -133 172 -385 -- -158 156 Contributions of SONARA 6 -- and CSPPN ------250 Other -165 197 -157 159 255 Central bank credit (net) -- 219 -315 387 -637 Government deposits -- -- -100 Rediscount of customs 100 -4oo duty bills -- 219 Advances -215 237 -237 -- - -- 50 - - Source: 1ata- provided by the Niger authorities Â/ Mainly road and Pension :?unds g/ Mostly loans Lrom the Caisse Centrale de Coopération Economique. EXTRÀBUTDGETAtY TRANSACTIONS 0F THE GOVERNMENT (16/616/0) (million CFAF)' 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 lc68/69 1969/70 Revenues 143 243 378 332 258 Road Fund ------National Pension Fund 103 115 112 j33 122 National Lobtery 28 110 239 178 114 National Museurn 12 18 15 15 10 Special Research Fund -- -- il 5 il Olympie S wi iing Pool -- -- 1 1 1 Expendi btures 311 305 502 595 613 Road Fund0 96 97 133 210 280 National Pension Fund 189 95 122 157 208 Nlational Lottery 15 97 225 204 104 National Museeum il 16 17 15 9 Special Research Fund -- -- 5 7 11 Olympic Swirnming Pool ------2 1 Balance -168 -62 -124 -263 -355 Road. Fund -96 -97 -133 -210 -280 National Pension Fund -86 20 -10 -24h86 National Lottery 13 13 1h -26 10 National Museum 1 2 -2 -- 1 Special Research Fund -- -- 6 -2 -- Olympic Swixmming Pool -- 1 -1 Source: Data provided by the Niger authorities. #/ Excluding ordinary budget contributions and foreign assistance. Annex h9 ORDINARY BUDGET REVENUES OF THE GOVERNENT_(196566-1969/70) (million CFAF) 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 Fiscal reveniucs 7,995 8,2274 8,82 8,361 10,t)8 Direct taxes 2,883 3,145 3,582 3,134 3,831, Incorne taxes 655 64o 847 841 1,193 Poll and cattle taxes 2,114l 2,382 2,566 2,227 2,570 Other 114 125 169 66 71. Indirect taxes 4,813 4,889 4,994 4,919 5,849 Turnover tax 437 548 614 738 Excise taxes 534 532 622 606 7)48 Im port diu-ies and. taxes 5,049 3,204 3,1Q4 3,075 3,52 9 ,'Export dclties and t;axes 793 605 654 500 626 Otlier 299 240 256 308 355 Miscellaneous receipts 325 547 449 694 849 Government properties 119 131 151 53 63 Penalti.es, fces,and dues 206 216 298 324 3591 Other -- -3 - 517 395 Nonrecurrent receipts 187 23 61 87 74 To-tal 8,507 8,64.4 2,42 9,142 10,941 Source: Data provided by the Niger authorities, 1/ Excluding accounting entries (recettes sur report gestion proc6dente), foreign assistance, contributions of public or mixed enterprises, and drawings on the Reserve Fund. ORDINARY BUDET EXPENDITUR1S 0F THE GOVEMENT (1965/66-1967OW (million CFAF) 1965/06 1960/67 1907/68 1968/69 1969/70 (Functional classification) Personnel 3,727 4,102 4,357 4,496 4,719 M4aterials and supplies 2,449 3,044 1,887 2,088 2,419 Subsidies and contributions 392 264 373 405 422 Public debt 263 263 176 298 395 Internal (35) (142) (247) External (..) (...) (141) (156) (148) Other 620 900 1,611 2,082 1,995 Total 7,451 8,573 8,404 9,369 9,950 (Administrative classification) Interior 1,207 1,053 1,156 1,221 1,295 Education 824 951 1,059 î,î614 1,414 Defense 0668 835 905 940 1,026 Public health 487 599 669 777 943 Rural economy 454 643 650 753 842, Public works 453 43o 589 612 8ot Finance 339 366 489 555 552 ForeiW affairs 320 363 346 432 471 Other-/ 2,699 3,333 2,561 2,905 2,600 Total 7,451 8,573 8,4o4 9,369 9,950 Source: Data provided by the Niger authorities. î/ Excluding contributions to the investment budget and special funds, unutilized appropriations (crédits reportés), and accounting entries concerning the settlement of past budgetary defîcits. 2/ Including public debt. I . -OVSRALL TREASURY 0PE RATIONS (196 66-1969 70) (In millions of CFA francs) 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/7' t/ X % ' X% Ovet-aU cash deficit -- -- 890 100 1h7 100 1,117 100 300 100 1,506 100 External financing 130 100 313 35.2 524 356.5 422 37.8 899 +299.7 1,046 9.5 Internal financing -130 -300 577 64.8 -377 -256.5 695 62.2 -599 -199.7 460 30.5 Of which: Dom stie nonbank resources -130 358 40.2 -62 -42.2 308 27.6 39 18.6 295 19.£ Central Bank -- 219 24.6 -315 -214.3 387 34.6 .437 -212.3 165 10.9 Source: Data provided by Niger Authorities. / Staff estimates. I: Annex 52 TREASURY LIQUIDITY POSITION (1965-1970) (mililion- C-FAKFJ' 1965'1/ 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Deposits with Frenchi Treasury 318 438 275 56 82 48 Deposits with local agernices 389 333 361 279 306 389 Holdings of customs duty bills 328 373 67 200 28 413 Deposits with Central Bank - -- 100 - 400 Total 1,035 1,144 703 635 416 1,250 Variation (decrease -) -521 109 -441 -68 -219 834 Years ended September. Source: Data provrided by the Niger authorities. REGIONAL BUDGETS:L 6 ( 6-9L 69 '/66-1969~Q 70)xSAnnex 53 (million CFAF) 1965/66 1966/67- 1967/68 1968,/69 1969/70 Receipts 867 904 960 953 919 Expenditures 966 925 962 987 950 Current expenditures 918 826 843 844 796 Investment expenditures 48 99 119 143 154 Over-all deficit -99 -21 .- 2 -34 -31 Financing Governnent subeidies 15 .10 10 1.0 15 .Loans anc. drawing...on. reserves 84 11 -84 16 Source: Data provided by the Nqiger atithorities. Anmex 54 MUNICIPAL BUDGETS (19670 96 0) (Ini rn.l±is of CFA francs) 1965/66 1966/67 196-7/68 1968/69 1969/70 Receipts 259 235 387 367 431 Niamey 159 142 219 195 229 Mairadi 56 44 73 82 88 Zinder 44 49 78 62 82 Tahoua - -- 17 28 32 Expendi tures 329 330 377 370 414 Nie.rmey 215 226 215 196 212 Maradi 64 47 73 81 88 Zinder 50 57 73 65 82 Tahoua -- -- 16 28 32 Over- all surplus or deficit/" -70 -95 10 -3 17 Source: I)ata provided by the Niger authorities. 1/ Deficits are financed mainly by borrowing and drawings on reserves. Financial Situation of Mixed Enterprises i-,ons urrpoze Investments Operating Results (millions) 1965 l96~6 1967 1963 1060 197,0 Crfdit d'u .;iger Loans for personal equipment hzusing construction, 120,475,000 -29.8 -25.6 +6.o *o.6 .0.7 .1.2 hire pu:rchase Bar.-ue Ce ' velop- All bankin_ transactions peen-: `e la -épu- 460,ooo,ooo 449.5 430.0 +57.0 .46.9 bl4c.ie h!uNrger .178.0 *179.9 (3 :F>N> é`irè-e .Mining research (especially du :urer 'SY3N) cassiterite) 57,558,000 +7.5 *3.8 .o.4 +3.1 .13.5 So- :;jér.ere Ail operations involving the de 02:ercialisation storage and marketing. of 304,418,000 .49.3 .60.9 .123.3 .29.4 .298.2 de l' Arahide groundnuts in Niger Dociété ',ationale des Execution and promotion of Gfrr.n4s Tra-:aux du Niger ail public works 201,602,000 .10.8 -1.2 -12.6 -16.9 -294.2 -286.0 Sociîgt :;igérierne Development - reorganisation de Co=aercialisation of trade channels - marketing - 300,000,000 .6.9 .16.3 .32.1 *21.2 -158.1 -16.8 et 'e Production purchase and sales Société Natiorale des C-,eration of public passenger Tranrports Jrbains tra-sport-ation - Société iationale des Operation, organization, Transports Nigériens establishment of ail road 646,692,0o0 *1.3 .o.6 .21.2 .7.1 .20.9 n';T) or other services Société Sig6rienne de Manufacturing sale of all types Fabrceta,on Métallique of office furniture and equip- 45,845,00 - -14.2 -0.7 .13.5 .16.9 .16.8 ment, furnishing and rural equipment Société .1ationale de Production and sale of cement Cimernterie (SNC) (33,000 tons) 1,677,021,000 - - -161.3 -120.0 -138.2 Air':,ger Operation of air transportation within the Republic of Niger 36,808,ooo - - -2.7 -14.6 -16.6 *26.0 Ie PIz d-u iiger Processing, manufacturing, pa packaging and sale of rice - - .3.06 45.65 -o.6 Soce'ét4 de Trar.z- Proceszing of millet and scrghum, fo.at.rn du Vil et production of flour and baby foods 54,795,000 - - .4.3 -13.8 -14.6 Gorgho (ZSOTPiAsYL) -10.9 Société 1'igdrienne de Manufacture of building materials Céramiques (SO'CESPAM4) sade of clay, and ceramics 62,000,000 - -4.9 -16.5 -5.0 -11.6 -13.6 ffevie '.' onal des Sun iy of pharmaceutical and Prouit;z'sharmaceutiques cherrical products to govern- 62,038,000 -92.2 .24.0 .52.0 .41.5 .47.8 v52.3 et Chimiques (ONPPC) ment health centers. Supplying private pharmacies, establish- ment of warehouses and offices in the Republic. Manufacturing, processing, packaging of phar- maceutical and chemical products Sotiété r'r:enr.e d'edzsita-on .es 185,400,000 - - - - *1.5 ?ez- ,:rt eo Animales .1.2 f Z-'.'rr->:;- 8OMTE NMERIENNE DL CE RCIALISATION DE LtABACHIDE statement, of~ Incarne (1965/66-196970) bmi11ion CFAF)'~ '' 1965/66 196/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70, Sales 7,321.1 7,184.0 6,99w.2 6,962.o 8,010.7 Cost of gooda soldc/ 6,628.0 6,4o8.0 6,642.2 %766.2 6,093.7 Grofs profit 693.1 776.0 350.0 1,195.8 1,917.0 Selling, adminictrative,and general exper.sea/ -372.6 -330.8 -336.2 -. 281.2 -299.9 Fina.ncîal conte -157.5 -224.3 -197.7 -156.4 -107.4 Amortization and depreciG.tion al3awances -61.2 -62.4 -57.7 - 6.3 -67.5 CV,eratIng profit 101.8 158B5 -241.6 697.9 15442.2 Other income Tranrportation opera'tions (net) . -- 84.2 63.8 66.8 Tnt.erest and dividends ,- °- 11.5 4.4 18.8 Insurance indemnities and returne of amounts overpaid -- -- 5.0 3.1 3.9 Other profita 7.3 32.4 71.3 -- -- Otner deductions Subveiitions and contributions: Received (+), paid out (-) . -- +170.3 -471..( -800.0 Exceptional and other losses -15,2 -0.8 -_ -101.0 -13.3 Earnings before taxation on income 93.9 190.1 100.7 197.2 718.4 Taxes on income -66.8 -36.8 -68.0 -2.51.6 Net profit 60.9 123.3 64.5 1.29.2 466.8 Total caoh generation 122.1 185.7 122.2 189.5 534.3 Source: Data provîded by the Niger autnorities. Y/ Purchases, net movement in stoeks, cowissions to intermediaries, indirect taxes, anci coots of handling, shelling,and transportation (including insurance). g/ Peesox.nel, travel, studios, supplies, services, fire insurance, direct t,.es,a;id miscellaneous operating costs. 2/ Nct profit, plus amortization and deprecie,tion allowances. GROUNDNUT MARKETING AND FINANCING (1965/66-1969/71) (In CFA francs per kilogram) 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/711/ Producer Drice Intermediary 22.81 22.15 commission 18.04 17.83 20.00 21.00 SONARA costs 1.6Q 1.6o 1.60 1.6o 19.32 1.67 -1.79 Export tax 21.37 19.37 19.12 20.81 3.75 3.00 22.51 2.75 2.25 2.25 2.25 Cost price c.i.f. = floor price Ceiling price 47.48 48.12 41.76 40.8o 48.23 44.73 47.55 French guaxanteed price 48.42 42.06 41.75 49.o6 45.93 World market price 49.13 -- nEC 46.45 39-50 target price 38.7o 45.44 52.47 54.00 46.50 48.52 41,72 44.oo -- - -'y,±- from the EEC to the CSPPi -- 18.4o (In millions of CFA francs) 46o.oo - Exports to France .- Exports to other EEC countries -: -- - 0.05 8.92 3,02 -- -- Payments from CSPPN to SONARA -- -- - (In millions of CFA francs) 34.00 212.05 486.54L Exports to France -- -- Exports to other countries -- - -- 1.03 8.62 -- 3.06 - Payments from SONARA to CSPPN - -- (In millions of CFA francs) 83517 61.71 -- Exports to 470.77 i,o4l.oo 6oo.QQ France 0-.85 Exports to other countries o.41 -- Sources: Data provided by the Niger authorities and staff estimates. 1/ Preliminary. Annex 58 ASSETS OF CAISSE DE STABILISATION DES PRIX DES PRODUIT~S DU NIGER CPN September 1969 September 1970 Assets: 1,760,696,187 1, 985,740,5X3 of which Equities: 1969 NITEX 22,610,000 COPRO 52,200,000 SONARA 37,000,000 SNC 30,000,O00 BDRN 11,995,000 1970 NITEX 22,610,000 COPRO 97,195e000 SONARA 37,000,000 SNC 30,000,000 BDRN 11,000,000 SNEPE 5,,000 Source: Data provided by Nigerien Authorities Annex 59 ASSETS AND LIABILITIF3 OF THE R2A NQUE.-DFL,DV1T0PTME. LA -.RE MBLQEY NIGER- (1966-1970) (In million of CFA £rancs) 1966 L/ 1967 1968 1969 1970 Assets Cash 25 Barniks and correspondeents 16 17 22 27 115 254 352 816 656 Discounts 856 Short-term loans 889 1,705 1,960 1,910 1,979 1,809 Mediun-- and 1,16 1,541 2,091 long-term advances 421 Sundry debtors 533 673 1,173 1,312 86 Suspense and 78 92 155 550 miscellaneous accounts 98 Participations 259 138 125 100 228 Other assets 268 292 352 366 110 113 111 120 125 Assets = Liabilities 3,918 4,219 4,494 6,244 7,135 Liabilities Current deposits 1,473 Time deposits 1,857 1,782 2,407 3,327 267 Medium- and 465 459 770 834 long-term loans 696 Sundry creditors 729 942 1,494 1,462 605 Suspense and 116 197 326 155 miscellaneous accounts 208 Capital 207 119 120 120 Reserves 450 450 450 450 450 189 Profits carried 338 498 630 757 forward 30 57 47 47 50 Years ended in September. Source: Banque de Developpement de la République du Niger, Rapports d'activité Annx; 60 ONCA - BALANCE SHEETS AS OF SEPTEMBER 30 l969 AN ffII R P- (in thousandê ôf COAKtrancs) Assets Liabilities 1969 1970 1969 1970 I - Liquid a.ssets 2,121.2 2,233.2. II - Cheeking a.ccounts 49,O38.5 57,408.7 - II - Banks and correspondents 7,598.4 13,44h.8 VI - Credits to be repaid 438.7 - V - Bills 147.5 385.5 VII IMiscellaneous creditors 42,768.0 20,459.7 VI - Short term credits 150,277.7 185,522.3 IX - Deposit a.ccounts 40°,0000 hO,000.o VII - Medium term VI - Suspense a.ccount and credits 35,926.7 102,252.9 mîscellaneous 21 ,278.7 59e166,7 IX - Miscellaneous XII - Provisions 24,074,8 46,168-3 debtors 89.526.1 15,536.7 XIV - Appropriations 556.4 XI - Equity shares 2,273.0 100.0 XV - Capital 117,355.0 1 70,000.0 XIII - Doubtful and contentious IV - Bils in circulation 27,000o. debts 13,639.5 46>168.3 XXI - Profits 6,000.0 - VIII - Loans with more than one year maturity - 4,138.0 X - Suspense account and miscellaneous - 37,007.0 XI - Losses during fiscal year - 13,9414.7 3150.1 420.203.4 0 420 203.4 Source: CNCA's Annwal Reports for 1969 and 1970 Agricultural Credit Loan Statista:s by Types and Puxposea P'j¶cal yesr 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 and earlier 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 N A N A A 1 A A N A o ST Collective 516 40,772,000 720 34,985,000 1310 47,9g2,000 41,107,000 - 46,373,000 134 41,939,000 r ST Individual 174 4,560,000 89 3,413,000 46 3,439,000 1,889,000 1,977,00 44 o MT 1,983,00 Coilective 49 10,135,000 100 3,233,000 Pr 195 8,653,000 4,286,000 1 2,322,000 92 28,074,000 r MTIndiVIdu1 164 7,o98,o00 67 8,302,000 112 9,585,000 10,099,000 13,990,000 208 41,459,000 d Total ST 690 45,333,000 809 38,399,,00 1356 51,342,000 42,996,o0o 48,3500,00 43,922,000 c Total T * 213 17,233,000 t 167 11,535,000 307 18,238,0o0 14,385,000 16,312,o00 69,533,000 i Total 903 r 62,566,000 976 49,934,0oo 1663 69,580,000 57,381,000 64,662,000 n - 113,455,000 Fertllizers and P fungicldes u 2,062,000 3,8>46,00 5,754,000 6,385,000 20,110,000 r pOS eed 21,131,000 p 314850,000 33,395,000 39,613,0w o Draft 26,370,000 ini1I11,483,000 18,590,00 10,284,000 7,534,0oo e Miscellaneous 15,252,000 ') 66,975,ooo 15,294,000 7,948,o0o 11,131,000 Relief loan 29 194,910,000 `oansI 28 169,825,o00 10 85,621,000 o o O O te ';eeds 13 67,773,000 Districts 7 26,347,000 6 24,553,c00 27,493,000 6 33,925,000 rotat 42 262,683,000 35 196,172,000 16 110,174,000 43,000,WOo 27,1493,000 6 33,925,00- GCroundnut 105,000,000 128,000,000 i14o,ooo,ooo 85,514,ooo Crelitz lor Cotton co-erclalization 30,000,000 38,000,000 61,ooo,ooo 95.785,000 (UW-, SZORMUL, Fice Riz lu ilger> 85,000,000 200,000,000 275,000,000 363,780,000 Others ° ° 3,700,000 11,,48o,oo0 Crops loans Otner i P 34,951,000 ii|c MTUffl 106,060,000 t, _ 36,500,000 ______I ______0 ST: Short ter. T: Xediu, ter N . If umber| A:our.t rt:u A CF."k 1~ - ban for production purpose Mierellqntour loans: The-c are for the mor.t p-L lo=,z g-ranted to indiviJula. (civil ae-vantr)nnd therefore ith stable ince considered as Fnlvett.Financing 1. granted for the invntrnents: uells sd fence6, motorized pusps, ba.ina. fo.lloving - Relief loans, loans nade to districts to alleviate crop deficits. - Advyscen: the figures reprcsent the maximum debit balances ln>the year. - Mliecellaneoue n.arwting; Orcen beana, vheat, tomatocs. - The a -dV-,CC2t- f the purpoce of arketing t>eregranted to thc cooperative. Since tbmî, thr:jy -a; until196,8/69. w-e tbrolugh the UINCCand are inIco u.ed to finance of SGf.ARJ, ar: Diz du Riger. the purchage, andl s=tockic IL M1970) (million CFAF) 1957/6E. 1968/69 19/6170 Se?t. S Sep. aarch Sept. DeD. JurS . c. Nu-h ie Sept. Dec. AguYets Foreign Sets (net) 379 102 150 -305 -1,11 -314 146 -741 -.90 -35 283 599 1,59? 2,HJ 2,98 3l101 Domestic CRe_it 5,_M 5,811 6,413 8,748 9,196 8,1f;o 7,258 10,101 9,836 8,209 7,850 9,666 8,778 7,499 7,255 8,395 Cla±m on Goverment (net) (-698) (-1,005) (-936) (-388) (-1,046) (-1,0!3> (-876) (-397) (..1,30) (-1,279) (-821) (-399 (-2,017) (-2,C41) (-1,496) (-1,652) C 1 on ptivae (5,825) (6,816) (7,349) (9,136) (10,2142) (9,213 (8,134> (10,498) (I114I) (9,488) (8,671) (10,065 (10,795) (9,5h0) (8,751) (10,47) Asaets - Liabilities 5,506 5,913 6,563 8iA-43 8,083 7,8L6 7,1o0 9,360 8,856 8,174 8,133 10,265 10,371 9,823 10,14h- 11,555 Liabilities Maney 4,674 4,549 5,195 7,360 6,4oo 6,0oi 5,566 7,2414 6,715 6,161 6,I20 8,538 7,738 7,303 7,117 8,830 Currency (2,191) (2,516) (2,846) ( ,327)--(3,250> (2,776) (2,625) (4,2149) (3,2701 (2 941g (2 867) (147&) (4 037) (3,791) (3,122) (4,866) Demand depocite/ (2,.483) (2,033) (2,349) (3s033> (3,150) (3,2L5 (2,941> (2,995) (3,4145, (3,220J (3,253) (3,758) (3,701) (3,512) (3,695) (3,964M Quasi-money 2 244 471 5i1 455 5(17 492 731 657 718 rs9 674 714 735 794 766 Other items (net) 830 1,120 891 542 1,228 1,31.8 1,346 1,385 1,484 1,295 1,294 1,053 1,919 1,785 2,233 1,959 Sources: 1<, trrttiona1 Financial Statistics; ani data prorided by the Niger srthoritien. 3/ IncJuding SDR holdings equivalent to CFAF 466 million. I/ ncludlng postal cheeking deposits. lu. Assets and Liabilities of the Comnercial and Devel1opgnetBanks, 1965-70 (In millions of CFA francs) 196 1966 1,67 1967/68 Sept. Sept. 1968169 1969170 Spt. Dec. March June Sept. Dec. March 1970 June Sept. Dec. Mareh Jine aupt. Dec. 123 192 36 253 82 55 Foreign aisets 45 102 -49 62 26 141 49 151 84 196 445 190 88 33 165 Cl aionGvermnt 191 267 505 241 976 745 574 5014 164 76 101 87 70 68 49 614 378 554 278 Cl&imB on private aector 46 -42 9 26 24 12 424 *1446 5,497g 6,4142 7,062 8,835 9,984 8,946 7,924 10,216 10,816 9,237 8,400 9,737 10,357 9,158 8,33& 9,641 FinRnced by oin resources 4,280 4,954 4,851 4,666 6,779 6,598 5,804 6,889 7,715 6,6& 7,341 7,218 8,110 8,130 8,206 B,247 Short-term 3,771 4,259 4,016 3,743 -- dium-tera 5,867 5,634 4,681 5,384 5,981 4,930 5,506 5,296 262 319 287 335 328 274 6,129 6,123 6,117 L .4x 335 376 387 417 487 568 623 644 247 376 548 588 584 690 788 688 1,129 1,347 1,334 1,348 1,354 1,358 1,363 1,401o * ?±nnced by rediscounts 1,217 1,488 2,211 4,169 3,205 2,348 2,120 3,327 3,101 2,556 1,059 2,519 2,247 1,028 132 1,394 ë hbort-term 1,055 1,200 1,860 3,815 2,882 2,024 1,799 3,039 2,858 2,360 Iiei-term 162 908 2,411 2,130 837 74 ... 288 351 354 323 324 521 288 2143 196 151 108 117 191 58 Assets = Liabilities 5,935 6,794 7,395 9,620 10,326 9,260 8,285 10,887 11,152 10,317 9,180 10,478 10,934 9,636 9,349 10,530 Liabilites Demnd deposits 2,073 1,681 1,994 2,686 2,806 2,792 2,561 2,586 3,030 2,789 2,831 Tlme deposits 2 244 471 54i 3,352 3,254 3,067 3,185 3,552 455 507 492 731 657 718 719 Goverment deposits 632 767 1,052 828 674 714 735 794 766 Foreign 821 864 879 1,045 1,111 1,180 1,034 1,067 llabllitles 990 1,496 790 904 1,243 1,253 1,258 1,127 1,818 1,416 1,356 1,826 1,758 1,762 2,247 Credit fro Central Bank 1,217 1,488 2,210 1,815 2,037 2,179 2,250 2,199 4,169 3,204 2,347 1,982 3,327 3,101 2,556 Other item (net) 1,021 1,118 1,059 2,519 2,247 1,028 132 1,394 878 492 1,222 1,334 1,015 1,372 1,495 1,312 1,290 1,051 1,439 1,374 1,730 1,492 Sources: INF, International Pinencial Statistics; and data provided by the Niger authorities. i. DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM BANK CREDIT BY MAJOR ECONCMIC SECTORS Years ended. September (1965-1970) Y/ (in millions CFA francs) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Short-tern credit Agricultural production and fishing il 12 23 60 77 87 Industry 134 372 4i9 336 59Ç) Construction and public works 64k 589 699 921 825 8£k3 Inmport and exaport trade2./ 1,258 1,621 1,355 1,237 1,3411 1,760 Transpcqrtation and utilities 277 337 302 305 335 405 Otheiï 2,081 2,377 3,03 3 3,326 2,734 1,976 Total 4,h47 5,308 5,855 6,185 5,772 6,o63 Mediui-term credit Industry 71 99 -92 97 177 135 Construction and publie works 197 280 261 213 155 221 Transportation and utilities -- 15 51 48 34 96 Other 39 148 110 122 87 59 Total 307 542 514 48o 455 511 Source: Data provided by the Niger authoritie;. 1j Only credit registered. with the Centrale de:; Risoues"du Niger. i/ Excluding credit for the marketing of groundl,uts and other agricultural exports. Ineluding credit for the marketing of groundinuts and other agricultural exports. Short term cred IJ extc nd I tO'-c NITEX. 4' I Assets and Liabilities of the Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest ).965-70 (In millions of CFA francs) 26 1967 1967/68 1968/69 1969/Q70 197 Sept. Sept. Sept. Dec. March Jane Sept. Dec. Mareh J'ne Sept. Dec. March June Sept Dec. Foreigu assets 1,227 1,517 751 263 666 1,074 998 655 545 874 1,795 1,870 3,245 4,i256 4,696 5,20 Foreign exchange (1,042) (1,301) (5014) (16) (419) (827) (720) (377) (267) (596) (1,8) (1i488) (2,37) (3 408 (3,848)1(4,163) ne (185) (216) (217) (247) (217) (247) (278) (278) (278) (278) (347) (382) (Z81+?/ (858 (848)-l,0'37>-' Clains oe GoTernent 2 3 222 679 217 179 8 740 164 1140 293 817 8 9g Cli on banks (rediscounts) 1,417 1,488 2,210 4,152 3,202 2,359 2,120 3,327 3,1091 2,556 1,059 2,520 2,247 i,028 132 1,394 Short-term (1,254) (1,200) (1,860) (3,798) (2,881 (2,024) (1,799) (3,039) (2M358) (2,360j SO8) (2,412? (2,130) (855 (74) (...) iunter (163) (28) (350) (354) (321) (335) (321) (288) (243) (1,96) '151) (108> (117) (173> Î58) (.,) IAsaets - Liabilities 2,646 3,00 3,183 5,094 4,085 3,612 3,126 4,722 3,810 3,570 3,17 5,207 5,500 51293 4,829 6,595 Liabilities Beserve moey 2,324 Z,711 2,883 4,6i2 3,336 2,827 2,670 14,361 3,304 2,983 2,897 4,925 4,107 3,830 3,456 5,032 Df wbich: Currency outside banks (2,191) (2,516) (2,81+) (4,227) (3,250) (2,772) (2,625) (4,249) (3,270) (2,941) (2,87) (4,780) (4,037) (3,791) (3,422) (486) Ge t posits 314 295 275 373 597 622 3142 2&4 191 16 2140 252 815 872 760 8 of vhich: Currency held by the Treasury (313) (294) (267) (367) (428) (413) (237) (281) (1484) (353) (237) (251) (1F514) (49g) (31+3) C..e) Fareign liabilities 8 2 7 109 152 162 109 74 8 124 10 30 119 131 1in 119 0ther item (net) 18 1 5 -- 4 3 -- -- 59 460 502 466 Sources MF, IDnternU'JJOruLi ?hil^t 1 t!.t>RtiéE; and data provided by t:e Nige? aa-tr 1/ The1udl-Mi SDB i;.ldjnf equi.vat to CFA 466 »illion. ID ON \afl Annex 66 Struct'-ure of' Interest Rates &2p1lied by Banks December 1970 (In per cent per year) Interest rates on loans Short-term Credit rediscountable by the.BCEAO Within BCEAO- Above BCEAO- approved individual approved individual limits limits Credit to priority enterprises and to public agencies engaged in crop financing 4.50-5.25 9.00 Secured loanis .5.0oo-6.oo 9.00 Other credit 5.50-6a50 9.00 Credit not rediscountable by the BCEAO Less than CFAF 5 million 6.oo-8.oo More than CFAF 5 million 9.00 Medixim-term Credit rediscotint.able by the BCEAO- Credit to priority enterprises and for construction of social interest 5.25-5.75 Conimercial and industrial credit for productïve purposes 5.25-6.00 Other construction 7.00-7.50 Credit not rediscountable by the BCEAO 8.00-8.50 Interest rates on -privatesector deposits DJemand deposits 0-2.50 Time deposit,< From CFAF 200,001 to CFAF 5 million 3.50 Above CFAF 5 million 4*50 Sa'vings deposits 3.25 Source: Data provided by the Niger authorities. 1/ In addition to the interest rates shovm, there is a commission of 0.25 per cent on medium-term credits eligible for rediscounting with the BCEAO, except on those which are guaranteed by the Government. RECORDED FOREIGN TRADE (1965-1970) (million CFAF) First half 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 169 -1970 Exports (f.o.b.) 6,250 8,574 8,580 7,125 6,250 3,552 4,390 Groundnuts 3,o60 5,330 5,961 4,513 3,721 2,286 2,549 Groundnut oil 283 661 531 330 191 59 169 Cotton 262 500 36i 393 297 164 84 Cattoe 807 735 709 779 771 389 655 Cldes arie skins 142 -115 89 87 172 54 75 Other 1,696 1,233 929 1,023 1,098 600 858 Imports (c.i.f.) 9,300 11,115 11,352 10,237 12,570 5,972 6,701 Cloth and clothing 2,806 2,609 3,261 2,169 2,540 1,o48 1,389 Food, drinks, and tobacco 1,275 1,456 1,524 1,151 1,383 592 710 Petroleum .products 1,537 913 632 497 507 218 307 Transport equipment 1,348 1,159 1,678 1,862 1,368 674 992 Other 2,334 4,978 4,257 4,558 6,772 3,440 330 3 Consumer goods (2,463) (2,771) (2,981) (2,395) (2,609) (1,151) .. ) Semifinished gccds (4,498) (5,208) (5,448) (4,441) (5,355) (2,432) (. Capital equipment (2,295) (2,835) (2,537) (3,148) (4,606) (2,302) (... Trade balance -3,050 -2,541 -2,772 -3,112 -6,320 -2,420 -2,311 Source: Commissariat Général au Développement, Bulletin de Statistique. q.\ DIRECTION OF RECORDED TRADE (1965-1969) (In per cent) _o_ts_ Imorts 1- 1966 l .9 1965 1966 1967 19..---9 France 56,2 54.9 75.9 63.1 62.7 53.2 51.6 48Q.1 47.i4 48.7 Eurcpean Economie Conmnity (excluding France) 2.1 12.4 0.7 13.2 4.8 11.2 9.8 11.5 11.9 13.4 Nigeria 25.4 i7. 4 16.2 14.9 16.1 1.7j 1.5 2.2 S5- 2.0 Union Douanière des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (UI'AO) 5.8 5.8 4.2 6.2 8.7 9.1 8.8 10.9 10.7 9.7 of which: Ivory Coast Ç1179 Ghana 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 2.4 ...... 0.8 0.8 0.5 Japan 0.2 ... 0.5 0.1 1.2 ... .. *.. ... Mainland China e...... 4.8 3.5 ;s.9 4.2 2.8 Venezuela ..... 0.9 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.5 Others 7.1 6.2 1.0 1.1 2.4 12.6 14.7 11.2 12.0 15.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1CX0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Connisanriat Général au Développement, Buletin de Statistîque. Annex 69 a.la±auce of ca .c Pai3ynetxt.s. . 196&J/47O0 . ... UOnliLOgCç.A fancs) 1963l969'?/ 1970V/ -ci3c (net- 4.9 288 43,ŽoO -6p7oo Expert.«, 802.o17 M 7>Q00 10,..l 2c'x£'O 6 -15,700 -17,000 Ser1cem (8nt) -2,02 -3,600 -3,100 Tr\,nr înFrinuran-c (net) 7 '35 -roo -15000 IrQF>%ent i,c^me (net) .200 Trtrcl. (netk) -200 D8 ~ Gx2rxn3t tvensùction 200 -200 (net) -1526 -1,700 -1,700 ou -gcxx1s and, Service-00 4,ng090 110zOû ~~9800 "f.. 'l-d)4x6 rans.. fi er pay,Nom;s (1l1m; 25 t^A Pri0vateJ -(neQJ Cs~int (et).5-,933 28 Nonpmon--t-t.rn-y capital (net) 2,338 ?rvt nt ) Q . §558 ffciaI (fnet) ^< Net errors end oitssîona 1,3381 Monetary raovements (inerease 172 193391), -2,561 Central B3ank -437 -1,259 -3,241 Assets (;392) Liabilities (-1,215) -3,330 (45) (-4) (89) Other banks 609 -80 680 Assets (-4323 (-69) Xi.r.T.. (296) ...04in (-1»6l1) (384) Sources: Balance des Paiements dujgegr Anne6 1968;3CAO y Including estimates for unrecorded trade, Missionî/ estimates Annex 70 EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE December l7Je 1Q71) Urantn anld outatarnding loanet Financing Agencles 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 June 30 Dec. 31 March 31 June 30 Sept. 30 Dec. 31 March 30 June 30 CFA Francs I.B.R.D. )made ------Loans )disbursed - - - - )outstanding - - - - I. D.A. Developnent)>ade 370 1,881 1,881 2,116 .2,116 2,278 2,278 2,278 Credits )disb. 115 272 407 564 613 873 1,016 1,180 )outs. 115 272 407 564 613 873 1,016 1,180 I.F.C, Equity )made ------financing )disb. ------& Loans )outs. ------E.I.B. )made - - Loans )disb. ------) outs. F.E.D. )commitments 12,714 13,335 13,905 16,875 16,951 Grants )payments 6,168 7,418 7,861 9,503 10,146 )made ------Loans )disb. . - - - - - )outs. U.S.- A.I.D. Grants )commitments )payments )made 790 753 753 Loans )disb. 86 96 ... )outs. 86 96 ... KREDITAMSTALT )made 741 926 926 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 Loans )disb. 310 584 707 969 994 1,020 1,045 1,060 )outs. 310 584 707 969 994 1,020 1,045 1,060 F.A.C. (a) Grants )coMxit. 10,308 11,784 12,581 12,921 13,416 13,508 14,129 )payxnents 7;894 9,090 9,844 10,706 11,088 11,641 11,993 Loans )made 59°4 666 741 741 743 741 841 )disb. 311 475 571 635 635 666 741 )outs. 311 475 571 610 610 610 660 C.C.C.B. Advances made Public sector..... 1,985 2,822 3,808 4,608 4,799 5,155 of which - ceverrnnent 1,356 1,446 1,450 1,544 1,522 1,495 -local ,public, authorities 50 44 41 38 35 32 -Dev. Banks 438 770 1,098 1,172 1,237 1,314 -Other "mixed" Co. 141 562 1,219 1,854 2,005 2,314 Private enterprises - - - - s Ctmiulative amounts (a) Financing Agreements Source: BCEAO Faternal Publie Debt Annex 71 (millio FeAlF yent due Initial re te tt19nt7 Outt enont (pur cent) perlod end 1970 Principal lnitePrin c npl Inter*it Princlpa ret Contractuel loone Caisse Centrale de Coop6ratlof Econuique ( France 141.6 7.5 1968-1973 85.8 16.1' ... 14. .. 7.14* Oenrw 377.5 5.0 1967-1973 61.5 68. 65.7 United Kingdc.a 174.8 9.5 62.* 1970-1975 157.3 35 35 Unitod Stateu 16.7 6.o 1968-1973 35 9.0 .. 3! ... Tutal 70o;6 313.6 ...... 19. 5. 1o6.11 . Grand total 7,&93-. 7,020.7 269.J/ 81.5> 297.2f/ 82.0oJ 2".oCg 8.2à/ Qovernment guaranteed locnh France 3,808.3 2.5-5.0 1960-1981 3,253.8 170.5 153.8 336.0 156.9 345.2 14b.1 of vhich: 031e.. centrale de Coop4- ration Econcuique (CCCE) (3,io6.8) (2.5-5.0) (2960-1984) (2,562.6) (160.2) (110.0) (20o.6) OGrmeny . 151.0 3.0 (110.8) (211.8) (104-5) 1965-1980 125.9 12.5 3.9 12.5 3.5 United Stat.a 10.0 -- 1970-1973 12.5 3,1 7.5 2.5 -- 2.5 -- 2.5 Tctl 3,969.3 3,387.2 1ôt.S 151. 351.0 560.23.C.L 117.2 Source: Dat. provided by the liger authorltlez. Interedt payuent. included ln principal. S' Ineludea :cme intereet payente. E/Sxcludes av interest peyaents. Annex 72 PVBJOII ESI 1TPROGeRA (1965-1968) Rate of Actiia- Planned Actual Implent.ation 196S-1968 1965-l968 l965-1965 (1) (2) (2)/(l) = (3) in% (CFAF niillioln) (CrAF milli.on) General studios 2071 598.0 28.8 Admini strative infrastructure 2379.0 782.0 32.8 Education 4290.0 2280.0 53.1 Hea.th 1036.0 492.0 47.4 Urbain infrastructure 4252.0 921.0 21.6 Coîmununications 7919.0 3041.0 38.4 Power 902.0 89.0 9.8 Wells & w:ater supply 7083.0 3648.0 51.6 Agriculture 1861.0 1062.0 57.0 Livestock 1322.0 796.0 60.2 Forestry 342.0 153.0 44.7 Fisheries 72.0 O O TOTAL 335114.0 13862.vQ 41.3 Source: Comuissariat Géne.ral au Développement Anrlex 7_3 ;VELOPMEN EXPENDITURES (1960-1969) Commitnients DIstbursernmants Balance E 1960 ta 1979 1966 167 196S 1969 as c"' 9/30/69 I. Production Factors a) Developinent of natural resour- 14,301 1014 1861 1548 1315 2 ,949 2.2 ces of which (livestock 3,305 131 312 104 83 222 2.7 (rural engineer- ing 2,621 203 369 620 484 362 0.7 (wells & water supply 3,303 370 398 273 362 1,,446 4.0 b) Cornu.nwications infrastructure 14,190 925 883 1235 1993 4L,756 2.4 of Wlichl high lways 12,600 789 809 973 1849 4,601 2.5 c) Social infrai- structure 9,3316 1039 1116 711 787 3,29 4.1 of which (oducatiaOI1 6,278 890 860 474 509 1,802 3.6 (ncalth 2,240 71 86 111 110 1.,209 11.0 Iln. A rrninist;r;lt.ive 2,305 95 120 79 88 212 2.4 III . Pradul ct,:i. ve eguilcnit 2.365 133 294 323 399 703 2.3 IV. Gencrx*nl ;t 308 - 12 114 16 2h 1.5 Grand total 42,793 3206 4286 3910 4598 11,895 2.6 Undi ;l;hurzcd Credi.ts E Ratio Di bu,-emants(5 69 Source: Commissariat Géènéral au Développement r1 I1' ! ? FINA!INK O! DEI3OPENT =XPNDITURZ (19%9-l969) (percent) Total Total i2L21960 1961 U62 193 1296> 1l 966 59-66 1967 1968 1969 66-69 Resources o Nier National Budget 33 21 14 16 10 6 13 9 14 17 7 8 10 Road Yhd 4 6 3 4 4 4 3 1 3 1 2 4 3 Local administrations 6 10 8 3 6 5 8 9 7 2 (1) (1) (' Foreîgn assistance 3 1 2 Miscellaneous Doimestic loans - * Total 43 37 25 23 20 15 24 19 2h 20 12 13 1,%. French Assistance FAC grants 18 46 19 28 41 43 31 29 33 30 32 3i Other grants 57 45 8 21 19 12 2 i 18 - 1 - Loans h 4 Total 57 63 54 h1 47 53 45 32 >47 33 35 36 3 Euroerean assistance - - 19 27 20 22 2h 4h 22 33 19 24 2- U.S.A.I.D. - - 2 9 12 6 4 2 5 3 4 5 L Other assjrtanco - - i 4 3 h 2 Il 30 22 2: Grand Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1C Source: Comminsariat Céncral au Dcrveloppe'ment Annex 75 PUBLIC INVESTNENT ?FRRNGM AT TTS FINANCING (1972/71-1973741 \)2/ (CFAF million) 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/714 Total Transpiortation and communications 4,691 6i995 7,851 9,425 28962 Rcads and bridGc s 3,518 5,841 5,948 7,877 23,184 Ot>her 1,173 i,154 1,903 1,548 5,778 lu-ral develîpment 1674 1,716 2202 1546 Agriculture 407 303 3.1.8 182 1,210 Li vestoc k 497 501 447 99 1, 544 Forestry rifn shing, 41 151 71 72 336 IrrJitî,ation -works anid other 729 761 1,366. 1,193 4,049 1,ducati, on 854 1,043 S 622 330 PuolLe heal,lh 661 756 40(6 76 1,899 Encrgy wnd ries 5m3c 365 153 -- Oth 186 2 937 4L7 5 98 Total 1,652 12Ž03 2J•O 12,116 47,63 Fi iancing Domesti c 1,799 966 851 4,8o3 Nati onal Invef;lmtient 1Pund 1,4k1 967 81C 734 3,952 Other 35B 217 156 120 î5l Foreirn 8,E?53 11,2i9 94 4Lf24i 42,828 Eu.ropean Euoiiomi c C -inînunity (rnostly t1,rouj,f the FEl)) 3,016 2,757 3,055 4,312 13,140 Worl05 }ank Group 1,O66 1,686 2,105 1,452 6,908 France (mostly throucl,h the FAC) 2,127 1,556 1,522 1,300 6,5 07 Canada (cIDA) 341 796, 726 700 2,563 United l.'atwionr3 or; i zaion, 659 429 333 164 1,585 Italy 234 458 439g -- 1,131 Germany, Fedor,t. Republi c of 416 360 299 -- 1,075 United States (AID) 117 306 189 300 912 African Deve1 Err.tPrank 140 152 32 -- 324 Unallocated and otier 137 2,719 2e794 3,034 8,683 Souxrce: Coînîni sLriat, Gt-.6ral au Développement, Prortion 1971-1974: Inventisseinents 1/ Totals mray not add due to roinding . FER ET DES TRANSPORTS ORGANISATION CMIMUNE DAHfl Y-NIGER DES CHEMINS DE Rates of~ Sibsicies (l2Ê7../68-1970,/71l) (In C?A frc-,c ser £)~~/77 o,A; ? 19Yt/715 19oe'; t:r*; si, r.-- .! 8,,970 -'?'^ ______L/s :an enil ,.JE/.;st Firl : C.. ';s,'J-L; a Lind ,e s 's /Las'. -ind `4eslasz int czni2r cen.'e cci.-.,er center ceaner er/ :;b L' i3 cs pe4 'c~ d 6.21 6- o 5.21 5.00 5.55 C.CO 5.65 6.60 EIn PJDt, coGed 6.00 5.6 6.23.1 6. O 6.221 6.oo 5,65 6.Co 565 6.6o "I.I PoD1', e I,u't:'a., provWed by the- 7%er atuthrritie3. to crat and center WiGer. J CFJ;F 5.00 for .p;r tr.e,:s on 'tse eeztor vest Niger west Niger to Ea'jv are center fge 4. ORGANISATION CCUNE DAH.EY-NIGER DES CHKINS DE ER ET DES TRANSPORTS Traezc and Financial Resuit (96 1969) ,~~3 . -962 . 1 9 . 1960 19'1 1962 19653 19î 19i5 1966 1967 1958 19,9 (In thousends of tn.ssenrers) Passen_er vharf28 5 34 5 3 4 - allwys 1,224 946 1,405 1,513 1,459 1,1439 1,295 1,185 1,o44 1,CA4 (iln thousands or tctric tons) Goods 3?ar/ 2752 268 292 273 30 ------1id1weys 174 507 894 945 252 126 164 220 2065 22 Truck lines to and from lirer 80 89 101 95 78 79 108 151 133 1' or VinCh: Exports (.) ( ) ' (27) t24) (21) (31) (78) (5,3) " gin&ciC ~results (In tllllons of CF. francs) 3' Operatirn- results- -215 5 -7 - ..- j.4 25 32 56 83 32 -67 *------Ilai1vs -161 -80 81 77 -1.25 -167 -124/ 4 135 9 0pfrntJon ]irbndefle -153 -182 -157 -171 -225 -130 -- -- 2/ --- ?.ea ju stoe ns . 29 -- -58 -o0 ------ Subsldies reeeived ? 2°- -, 116 80 ? 20 - -- ___ ig.er Cover-nern. 133 .115 58 40 70 135 -- DIzhom:ey Goverooent 3.33 115 58 40 153 125 -- 314 34 Net results aftcr subsidies -- -- 38 59 -96 -bo1u -124 38 -101 1.3 -ources: Or;ar.isation Cozm-vne Drao-rry-wEjrigr des Cr.emins de Fer et des Trcnsporzs, !ri x,.d,-'o )O/IJ,1cae i'r et ) l`'lflnistèrei des Travaux Publics, des rensports, des l4-'.,nes et de l'Urbanisme, Direction des '2irar.ports, Annuici5 3r et 1°a7. !/ Scme comonenrts do rot coue1 tthe totals beceuse of rcur.tirg. _P/. On A.pril -0, 19-S, the activitdics of the vharf i.nCotonou were discontinued since the port of Cotonou started operctions in Jonnuary 1r. 5/ A.ter parzial asorti7atiOn (mainly rollirn stock). Zf Esti=ates. 5/ >pcn'3ituren eeual rr'eipts. 7/ re Jus-c-.z tAceobntio-'crde nfter the closinc of the fiscnl yenr. 7/ hi Jnv;>ry 1.1: the vrr.c.nt f ; rscr abolished the tLcxcuede rr-uation on roods shipp-d to !JigerNest uni lncreb!tord Vie threff of t'c OzD:; intt. !i .r d thc acrtWn-eya.ent cf suhaidics to the Tuhoncnnri part of the trofl'ic, but finances ene dc-flctt viich ci;nt occur out of traffic to ar;d froi 2- p,cr. -* ., ANNEX 78 page 1 GIROUNDNUTS - Table 1 Changes of Government income during the crop years 197172 to 1978-79 assuming a producer price of CFAF 23 per kg of shelled groundnuts (quantities in thousand tons of shelled ground- nuts) 1971/723 1 91475 6 1976/77 1977Z/78 1978/79 1. Production 127.7 150.5 173.2 196.0 210.0 220.0 225.0 230.0 2, Aitoc^onswWtion 41.0 42.0 43.1 44.3 45o5 46.7 48.0 49o5 3. Available for sale (1-2) 86.7 lo8.5 130.1 151.7 164.5 173.3 177.0 180.5 4. Imports from Nigiria 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 - - 5. Expor.ts!/<3 + 4) 126.7 138.5 150.1 161.7 164.5 173.3 177.0 180.5 -6. Torld price CIF European ports (CFAF/Kg) 60.0 60.0 56.6 53.3 $50.0 48.6 47.2 47.2 .7. Cost price C0F Eiuropean ports (OFAF/Kg) 49.6 50.0 5Osl 51.0 51,0 51,5 51e5 52.0 8. Proaits (or losses) of SOAILA (millions CFAF) 1,318.2 1,385.0 923.4 371.9 (164.0) (502.6) (761.1) (866.y4) 9. Profits (or losses) of CsPPN (millions CF.AF) 1,054.I î,i108eO 738.7 297.5 (164.0) (502.6) (761,1) (866,4) 10 Taxation (millions CFAF) 458,7 501.2 543.4 585.2 595.0 027e1 640.5 653.2 Il. ove8rall Govenernt ico~ie (CSPPN ' taxation) 1, 513 1 g609o.2 1,282 1 882.7 431.0 124,5 120.6 213.2 1/ Incleding exports as groundnut oil. Source: Mission estimates AMNEX 78 page 2 -GROUDIDNUTS Table 2 Changes of Governnent income during the crop years 1971-72 to 1978-79 assumîng a producer price of CAMF 2h per kg of shelled groundnuts (quantities in thousand tons of shelled ground- nuts) 1971/72 273 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1. Production 127.7 163.0 188.0 213.3 229.6 2h0.0 245 o0 250.0 2. Autoconsumnption 41.o h2.0 43.1 44.3 45.5 46.7 48.0 49.5 3. Available- for sale (,---2) 86.7 121.0 144.9 169.0 184.l 193.3 197.0 200.5 4. Imports fromRLMgéria 0o.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 - - - - 5. ExportsL/ (3 +--h) 126.7 151.0 164.9 179.0 184.1 193.3 197.0 200.5 6. World price CIF European ports (CFAF/kg) 60.0 60.0 56.6 53.3 50.0 48.6 47.2 47.2 7. Cost price CIF European ports (CFAF/kg) 50.6 51.0 51.5 52.0 52.0 52.5 52.5 53.0 8. Profits (or losses) of SONARA (millions CFAF) 1,191.0 1,359.0 8h1.0 232.7 (368.2) (753.8) (1,04h.1) (1,162.9) 9. Profits (or losses) of CSPPN (millions CFAF) 952.8 1,087.2 672.8 186.1 (368.2) (753.8) (lî0h44.) (1,162.9) 10. Taxation (millions CFAF) 458.7 5h6.5 593.5 651.h 666.3 699.6 '712.9 729.2 11. Overall Government income (CSPPN + taxation) 1,411.5 1,633.7 1,266.3 837.5 298.1 54.2 331.2 433.7 1/ Including exports as groundnut oil. Source: Mission estimates ANNEX 78 page 3 Eplanatory notes on Tables 1 and 2 Table 1 1. Production: We have assumed that production will increase on linear basis a between 1971/72 and 1974/75 to reach a level comparable to that of the 1966/67 crop year. The increase in production 1974/75, will be rapid until as this will mean a return to the level of production which reached previously. was The rate of production increase after 1974/75 will gra- dually diminish on account of the reduction of land areas available groundnuts. for The increase in production after 1974/75 should primarily come from improvements in productivity. 2. Auto-coni : We have assumed that it will increase at the same pace as the population, e.i. at the rate of 2.6 percent a year. 3. Quantities available for sale: This is the difference between produc- tion and auto-consumption. 4. Imports from Nigeria: We have assumed that groundnuts imports from Nigeria will gradually dimiinish until they are phased out in 1975/76, due to the improvement of the situation in Nigeria. 6. World prices: Tentative estimates. 7. Cost price Ce : Defined on the basis of present cost forecast price and for a slight increase resulting from the rise of freight charges. 9. Profits (or losses) of the CSPPN: It -will be assumed that 80 of SONARA profits percent will be paid to CSPPN. The latter will bear the total amount of losses incurred by SONARA. 10. Taxation: Assuming that thie taxes per ton of shelled groundnuts will be maintained at their present level of 3,619 CFA francs. Table 2 1. Production: We have assiumed that the production of a producer groundnuts at price of 24 CFA francs/kg will be 10 percent higher than the production at a producer price of 23 CFA francs/kg. ANNEX 78 page 4 GROUNDNUTS - Table 3 SITUATION 0F CSPPN (based on projection in tables 1 and 2) (million CFAF) Receipts and expenditures Cummulated Assets at year-end for theyear Marketing profits and losses Assumption A As tion B AssuMption A Asston B 2,5001/ 2,50O 2,500 2,500 1971/72 1,054 953 3,554 3,453 1972/73 1,108 1,087 4,662 h4540 1973/74 739 673 5,401 5,213 1974/75 297 186 5.,698 5,399 1975/76 - 164 - 368 5,534 5,031 1976/77 - 503 - 754 5,031 4,277 1977/78 - 761 1,,o44 4,270 3,233 1978/79 - 866 1,163 3,4o4 2,070 Assurnption A = Producer price CFAF/kg 23 Assuxption B = Producir price CFAF/kg 24 L/ Estimate of CSPPN assets at the end of 1971 Source: Mission estimate Anrnex 79 POSSIBILITIES OPEN TO PUPILS AT THE END OF PRARaY EDUCATION '(97 974h 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Expected output:/9, 119 9,902 10,767 11,538 12,389 Abosrbed; by: SecondIa ry E d' catO n 1,300 1,380 1,460 1,!C 1, 620 Vocat,ional Traini.ng 118 180 163 180 163 Recruited for Empir0ynont 1.s000 1,100 1,,200 1,300 1,400 Total 2.,418 2,660 2 ,823 3,020 3,183 Non-'absorbed SchooI-1eavMr^s 6,701 7,242 7,9144 8,518 9,206 I/ Enroul,ent as of January 19 final year of primary education Source: Comimissariat G5ndral au D6veloppement, Direction Hwnaine. de la Promotion Annex 80 POSSIBILITIE:S 0PEN TO PUPILS AT TEESND OF JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL LFVEL (1970-1974) 1970 1971 1972 1973 )1974 895 1,175 1C,052 Expectcd outpui3/ 627 665 0S 1ZhiCh: tnd Goneral - Lycéas 783 1,110 987 EducatLion Iligh SchooLs 485 56h 65 65$ 65 - Technicalî Lyc6Gs 50 45 56 47 - - 1TachtIr Colleges 92 111 317 759 Previous OutpUt 100 109 1,e29 1.9811 Total Output 727 774 1,006 Abosrbed by: 363 359 Vocational Tr_inrirg 348 373 354 300 330 310 Senior High School 245 260 35 ho 45 IRecruitCd for 1mployment 25 30 733 71 Total 618 663 689 317 759 1 ,097 Non-absorbod SchoCl-loa-,erS 109 . :1 Junior High School level. j/ Enrollrr.nt as of Jcanuary 1, at the end of the Direction de la Promotion Source: Colmmissariat GC6néra1 au D6veloppemente Humaine. I1ASTALLED CAPACITY AUD PROFDUCTION OF ELECTRICITY (1966-1970) Tnstalled capacity Production (In k(i) (In thousands of kw,/h) YoY96 197 e 1968 1969 1970:/ 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970- Niamey 9,200 9,200 i0,8oo 10,800 12,4o0 19,209 21,o84 24,586 28,520 33,505 Zinder 720 720 720 720 970 1,675 1,919 1,964 1,986 2,031 Maradi 55§ 550 8-0 84o 1,090 1,657 1,701 2,129 2,206 2,390 Agades 200 200 200 200 200 342 385 424 477 545 Tahoua 55 112 112 270 270 81 90 125 26 8 323 Total 10,725 10,782 12,672 12,850 14,930 22,964 25,179 29,228 33,457 58,794 Source: Data provided by the Niger authorities. 1/ Prelimninazy*. -Ao