Abstract Book 10Th BALTIC SEA SCIENCE CONGRESS
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Abstract Book 10th BALTIC SEA SCIENCE CONGRESS Science and innovation for future of the Baltic and the European regional seas 15-19 June, 2015 Riga, Latvia 10th Baltic Sea Science Congress Scientific Committee: Dr. Juris Aigars (Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Latvia) Dr. Andris Andrušaitis (BONUS EEIG, Finland) Prof. Erik Bonsdorff (Abo Academy University, Finland) Dr. Boris Chubarenko (P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia) Prof. Juri Elken (Tallinn Technical University, Estonia) Prof. Mike Elliot (University of Hull, United Kingdom) Prof. Michael Gilek (Sodertorn University College, Sweden) Prof. Jan Harff (Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany) Dr. Iveta Jurgensone (Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Latvia) Dr. Laimdota Kalniņa (University of Latvia, Latvia) Prof. Fritz Koster (National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Denmark) Prof. Urmas Lips (Tallinn Technical University, Estonia) Dr. Piotr Margonski (National Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Poland) Prof. Markus Meier (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden) Dr. Kai Myrberg (Finnish Environment Institute, Finland) Prof. Henn Ojaveer (University of Tartu, Estonia) Prof. Sergey Olenin (Klaipeda University, Lithuania) Prof. Markku Ollikainen (Helsinki University, Finland) Prof. Arturas Razinkovas (Klaipeda University, Lithuania) Dr. Lasse Rieman (Copenhagen University, Denmark) Prof. Sami Souissi (University of Lille, France) Prof. Markku Viitasalo (Finnish Environment Institute, Finland) Prof. Fredrik Wulff (University of Stockholm, Sweden) Dr. Tatjana Eremina (Sankt-Petersburg State Hydrometeorological University, Russian Federation) Contacts: Anda Ikauniece Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology Daugavgrivas str 8, Riga, LV-1048, Latvia http://www.bssc2015.lv/ [email protected] Cover photo: Ivars Druvietis ISBN: 978-9934-14-550-6 3 Table OF Contents INVITED KEYNOTE SPEAKERS . 7 ORAL PRESENTATIONS . 17 POSTER PRESENTATIONS. 125 WORKSHOPS. 277 INDEX . 281 INVITED KEYNOTE SPEAKERS 7 10th Baltic Sea Science Congress 16 June L1 DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION Hans von Storch and Armineh Barkhordarian Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany [email protected] The climate in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) has seen changes in terms of air temperature and precipitation amounts, in recent decades. We have examined if these changes are within the range off natural variations, as given my multi-millennial “control” simulations with conventional climate models. It turns out that temperature has seen an increase in all seasons, as well as annually, which is beyond this range, so that we may conclude that we “detect” a change, which needs explanation by anthropogenic factors. Similarly for precipitation amounts, even if the pattern in different seasons and for the year is variable. When we compare these changes “which need explanation” with what climate models suggest as responses to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG), we find that the induced temperature change fits the sign of the observed change, but is too weak. In terms of precipitation, we find sometimes inconsistency, i.e., opposite sign, and different magnitudes. Thus, the change may be in part related to elevated GHGs, but not entirely so. To shed further light on the attribution issue, we fitted a regression model, which describes BSR annual temperature and precipitation amounts as a response to Northern Hemisphere temperature and BSR aerosol emissions. The predictor “Northern Hemisphere temperature” is supposed to describe mostly the GHG related change, but it includes also global aerosol effects, global volcanic effects as well as cosmic effects such as solar activity. The regression models fit the observed records rather well, even if the year-to-year variability is underestimated, as was to be expected. Then, we modified the BSR aerosol emissions in the regression model – being constant at low levels since 1920, and being constant at high levels since 1980. It turns out that constant emissions lead to a reduced temperature increase in recent decades and to a positive trend in precipitation amounts. Thus, regional aerosol emissions together with global GHG atmospheric accumulation together may be “attributed” as causes of the recent trends in BSR climate change, at least qualitatively. 8 10th Baltic Sea Science Congress 17 June L2 IN SEARCH OF THE BEST CROSS‐BORDER AND ‐SECTOR GOVERNANCE MODEL Mike Elliott Institute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies, University of Hull, United Kingdom [email protected] Marine management worldwide has to tackle transboundary and cross-sectoral issues respectively because of seas encompassing the waters of many countries and because of the many activities in the seas and their catchments. The nature of the marine environment, in having unbounded boundaries (because of the dynamic nature of both the natural and societal aspects) and moving baselines (because of climate change) makes it a particularly challenging environment to manage. Accordingly, regional seas, such as the Baltic, have evolved environmental protection bodies such as HELCOM which have to operate across geo-political boundaries but which have to encompass all the prevailing philosophies and approaches to marine environmental management; the latter are within national, regional, international and global governance mechanisms. This presentation illustrates an integrated marine management framework based on the DAPSI(W)R(M) approach (Drivers, Activities, Pressures, State changes, Impacts (on human Welfare) and Responses (using Measures)), the Ecosystem Approach, the 10-tenets of sustainable management, and the Risk Assessment and Risk Management Framework. This takes note of vertical integration in governance and horizontal integration across stakeholders by showing the system of interlinked European marine governance, the plethora of bodies involved in marine management in a country, and the stakeholder typology. Finally, the presentation shows the successes of such approaches but also notes the impediments to a successful and sustainable management outcome. 9 10th Baltic Sea Science Congress 18 June L3 PATTERNS OF BIODIVERSITY IN COASTAL BENTHIC ECOSYSTEMS: A COMPARISON FROM THE GENETIC TO THE SYSTEM LEVEL AT EUROPEAN SCALE Herman Hummel Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, the Netherlands [email protected] Along Europe a northeastward shift in distribution of marine species has been noticed and often attributed to global change. The best examples are available for pelagic marine species and for benthic species at national level. However, the pattern, degree, and eventual consequences of changes, of the biodiversity in benthic coastal ecosystems at larger European scale remains largely unknown. To address this issue, the gradients and relations in genetic, ecophysiological and community diversity (and impact of changes) in coastal benthic systems and a few key-species were assessed in parallel in a range of European coastal ecosystems using harmonised tools and methods. In this presentation we will show examples of patterns of diversity at different organisational levels in benthic ecosystems along the European coastline as obtained in the BIOCOMBE and EMBOS projects. In series of surveys, translocation experiments in the field, and exposure experiments in the lab, carried out at a range of marine stations along the European coastline, aspects of the degree and variation in genetic, ecophysiological and community diversity of benthos have been studied during several years. A focus has been on zoomacrobenthic communities of shallow coastal systems and in particular on the diversity of two key-species, the clam Macoma balthica and the mussel Mytilus spp. in the Mediterranean, Atlantic and Baltic For the mussels as well as clams distinct genetic groups could be recognized. The genetic diversity of the studied key-species showed opposite gradients, i.e. for clams an increase of diversity towards the North, yet for mussels a decrease. The latitudinal gradients and distinct genetic groups are (partly) explained by the geological history (e.g. alternation of ice-ages), present major geographic barriers (Bosporus, Gibraltar and Sont-Kattegat), and recent age of some areas (as Baltic and Black Sea) in comparison with other European regions. The distinct genetic groups in both the key species largely coincided with the distribution of separate ecophysiological groups (ecotypes). Particularly the respiration rates, and to 10 10th Baltic Sea Science Congress a lesser extent the growth rates, can be linked to genetic markers. Clear patterns with latitude (North to South), temperature and salinity gradients and among regions (Baltic, Atlantic, Mediterranean) were found. The clams from the southern French Atlantic coast, i.e. living at the edge of their natural range, showed the lowest genetic diversity, coinciding with their higher sensitivity to disturbance. The optimal ecophysiological performance (on basis of respiration rates) of the southern group of mussels (M. galloprovincialis) was found around 25 °C, for the Atlantic mussels (M. edulis) around 20 °C and for Baltic mussels (M. trossulus) around 16 °C (and at lower or higher temperatures the growth and decrease). For mussels these data can indicate at which latitude a specific mussel group is expected to survive, or will disappear (i.e. to which extent the distribution range will shift in response to Global Change). From