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Turkish Financials Valuation Revisited, Targets Raised

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Turkish Financials Valuation Revisited, Targets Raised Equity Markets Sector update Haluk Akdogan Turkey London (44 20) 7767 6650 [email protected] Turkish financials Valuation revisited, targets raised Banks 1 September 2006 Revisions to target prices W e revisit our valuations and revise our targets following: Old TP New TP Change (1) a modest improvement in the discount rate; and (2) the (YTL) (YTL) (%) use of lower rates, for the first time, for banks with foreign Akbank 7.10 7.78 9.6 Aksigorta 4.75 6.05 27.4 partners. No changes to forecasts and ratings. Denizbank 7.87 8.15 3.6 Finansbank 4.03 4.13 2.4 Fin Fin Kir 6.75 6.75 0.0 Garanti 6.33 6.59 4.1 Valuation model revisited. We revise our valuation model assumptions Isbank 8.99 9.82 9.2 Sabanci 7.10 7.10 1.1 and make two changes. Firstly, we have lowered the discount rate across the TEB 21.15 21.83 3.2 board to incorporate the improvement in the inflationary outlook. Secondly, TSKB 3.72 4.62 24.1 Vakifbank 6.99 7.44 6.4 for the first time we introduce lower discount rates for the banks with foreign Yapi Kredi 2.45 2.48 1.1 strategic partners. _ Target prices raised. We raise our target prices accordingly. The changes are generally modest. The important TP revisions are to Akbank ING ratings and share prices (+9.6%), Isbank (+9.2%), Vakifbank (+6.4%) and Garanti (+4.1%). The Rating Price Upside (YTL) (%) revision to Isbank’s TP is also due to an upward revision of the valuation of Akbank Hold 7.85 -0.9 equity participations. Aksigorta Buy 5.20 16.3 Denizbank Hold 14.2 -42.6 Ratings remain the same. All recommendations are unchanged. We Finansbank Hold 5.75 -28.3 Fin Fin Kir Buy 3.94 30.0 see better value with mid caps; both TEB and TSKB are trading at Garanti Buy 4.26 54.6 compelling multiples. Garanti Bank is attractively priced and its interest in Isbank Buy 8.40 16.9 Sabanci Buy 5.35 32.7 Halkbank is likely to be a near-term driver of the shares. Overall, we have TEB Buy 13.60 60.5 eight Buys (Aksigorta, Finans Finansal Kiralama, Garanti, Isbank, Sabanci, TSKB Buy 2.56 80.3 Vakifbank Buy 6.60 12.7 TEB, TSKB and Vakifbank) and four Holds (Akbank, Denizbank, Finansbank, Yapi Kredi Hold 2.86 -13.4 and Yapi Kredi Bank). Priced at close 29/08/06 All recommendations are unchanged. Important note on our ratings. Our ratings on Denizbank (Hold) and Finansbank (Hold) are temporarily aligned to their respective tender prices – YTL15.02 and YTL5.97 at the current US dollar exchange rate. The tender offers should be launched by December 2006 in both cases. The target prices we display opposite reflect our 12-month investment opinions on the shares. research.ing.com SEE THE DISCLOSURES APPENDIX FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION Turkish financials September 2006 Contents Share price performance 3 Valuation update 4 Valuation table 5 Akbank – Hold 6 Aksigorta – Buy 7 Denizbank – Hold 9 Finansbank – Hold 10 Finans Finansal Kiralama – Buy 12 Garanti Bank – Buy 13 Isbank – Buy 14 Sabanci Holding – Buy 16 TEB – Buy 18 TSKB – Buy 19 Vakifbank – Buy 20 Yapi Kredi Bank – Hold 21 Disclosures Appendix 22 2 Share price performance Fig 1 One-month share price performance 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 Turkish financials Denizbank Source: Bloomberg _ Finansbank September 2006 Fig 2 Three-month share price performance Akbank 0 -10 ISE 100 index -20 -30 Yapi Kredi Bank -40 -50 Garanti Bank -60 Vakifbank Denizbank Isbank Source: Bloomberg _ Finansbank TEB Fig 3 Twelve-month share price performance Yapi Kredi Bank TSKB 120 100 ISE 100 index 80 60 Garanti Bank 40 20 0 Vakifbank -20 -40 Akbank Denizbank Isbank Source: Bloomberg _ Finansbank TEB TEB TSKB TSKB Akbank ISE 100 index Garanti Bank Isbank Yapi Kredi Bank 3 Turkish financials September 2006 Valuation update There is good value in Fig 4 Turkish banks PER 2007F (x) mid caps; Garanti is our top pick among the 15 large caps; the 12.4 12 10.5 acquisition stocks are 9.8 trading at rich multiples 9 7.9 7.9 7.3 7.0 6.2 6 4.8 4.7 3 0 k n ranti TEB Isba TSKB Industry Akbank Ga Yapi Kredi Vakifbank Denizbank Finansbank Source: Company data, ING estimates _ The industry average Fig 5 Turkish banks P/BV 2007F (x) P/BV is distorted by Finansbank and 4 Denizbank; Akbank 3.1 3.0 appears reasonably 3 2.5 valued 1.9 1.9 2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 1 0 bank TEB iz Isbank TSKB Industry Akbank Garanti Yapi Kredi Vakifbank Den Finansbank Source: Company data, ING estimates _ Denizbank looks pricey Fig 6 Turkish banks P/BV in context, 2006F (x) but the tender call should drive the share 5.0 price; Finansbank also Denizbank appears rich but not as 4.0 Finansbank expensive; TEB comes Yapi Kredi out as the winner 3.0 Akbank Garanti 2.0 Vakifbank TEB Fortis Isbank Isbank the bank 1.0 TSKB 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: Company data, ING estimates _ 4 Turkish financials September 2006 Valuation table Fig 7 Turkish banks valuation update Akbank Denizbank Garanti Finansbank Isbank TEB TSKB Vakifbank Yapi Kredi Recommendation HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD EPS (YTL) 2004 0.46 0.39 0.21 0.15 0.32 0.44 0.16 0.49 -0.03 2005 0.65 0.63 0.34 0.28 0.49 1.03 0.33 0.42 -1.58 2006F 0.68 0.37 0.40 0.35 0.63 1.75 0.31 0.62 0.11 2007F 1.08 1.14 0.69 0.60 1.05 2.89 0.54 0.92 0.27 DPS (YTL) 2004 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 2005 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006F 0.20 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.17 0.26 0.00 0.08 0.00 2007F 0.20 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.16 0.44 0.00 0.12 0.00 BVPS (YTL) 2004 2.83 2.70 1.50 0.84 3.88 5.15 1.27 1.57 2.45 2005 2.89 3.31 1.86 1.12 4.91 6.13 1.85 3.33 0.88 2006F 3.40 3.61 2.20 1.42 5.42 7.53 2.10 3.74 0.96 2007F 4.21 4.52 2.78 1.92 6.26 9.84 2.53 4.33 1.13 PER (x) 2004 16.9 36.6 19.9 37.5 26.0 30.8 16.3 13.5 -92.1 2005 12.0 22.4 12.6 20.5 17.3 13.2 7.7 15.8 -1.8 2006F 11.5 38.2 10.6 16.2 13.3 7.8 8.1 10.6 25.6 2007F 7.3 12.4 6.2 9.7 8.0 4.7 4.8 7.2 10.5 P/BV (x) 2004 2.8 5.3 2.8 6.9 2.2 2.6 2.0 4.2 1.2 2005 2.7 4.3 2.3 5.1 1.7 2.2 1.4 2.0 3.2 2006F 2.3 3.9 1.9 4.1 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.8 3.0 2007F 1.9 3.1 1.5 3.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.5 2.5 Div yield (%) 2004 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2006F 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 2.0 1.9 0.0 1.3 0.0 2007F 2.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.9 3.2 0.0 1.9 0.0 NIM (%) 2004 8.0 5.8 5.1 7.1 5.9 4.9 6.1 6.0 3.1 2005 5.6 5.7 5.4 7.7 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.4 2006F 5.2 4.9 5.0 8.4 5.1 4.9 4.6 5.1 4.9 2007F 5.5 5.9 5.8 8.4 5.0 5.6 4.5 5.5 5.5 RoE (%) 2004 18.1 17.3 15.7 20.8 9.3 9.3 13.9 40.1 -1.4 2005 23.9 20.8 19.9 28.0 11.2 18.0 21.2 19.0 -92.1 2006F 21.7 10.7 19.8 27.9 12.2 25.6 15.9 17.6 12.1 2007F 28.3 28.1 27.6 35.6 18.0 33.3 23.2 22.9 26.0 ROA (%) 2004 3.2 2.1 1.8 2.6 1.8 1.0 2.4 3.1 -0.3 2005 3.1 2.5 2.3 3.2 1.8 1.8 3.5 1.9 -12.4 2006F 3.0 2.0 2.3 4.3 2.2 2.4 3.7 2.4 0.7 2007F 3.3 2.6 2.9 4.2 2.4 3.0 3.5 2.7 1.6 Pricing date 29/08/06 Source: Company data, ING estimates _ 5 Turkish financials September 2006 Akbank – Hold Akbank – a shortlist of names interested in buying a minority stake A minority stake of up to Sabanci Holding is looking for a partner for Akbank.
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