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Market Watch Tuesday, August 08, 2017 Agenda

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Market Watch Tuesday, August 08, 2017 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr Agenda 07 Monday 08 Tuesday 09 Wednesday 10 Thursday 11 Friday Germany, June industrial TurkStat, June industrial U.S., June wholesale U.S., jobless claims CBRT, June balance of production production inventories U.S., July PPI payments U.S., July CPI Outlook: Major stock markets have advanced to new highs, and the BIST100 has Volume (mn TRY) BIST 100 also tested new record-highs, closing up 1.1% at 109,781 on Monday. Total trading volume in the market was at TRY 6.6bn. Today, market participants 109.781 will follow TurkStat’s June industrial production release; there are no other 10.000 110.000 108.545 major data announcements. Asian markets have seen mixed trading this 8.000 morning, and the European stock markets are expected to open slightly 107.154 108.000 106.525 down. We expect the BIST to maintain its uptrend in parallel to rising global 6.000 106.147 risk appetite, although we caution that the likelihood of profit taking rises 106.000 after swift upsurges. We expect the BIST to open positively today, refresh- 4.000 4.912 4.958 ing its new record highs. RESISTANCE: 110,000 /111,200 SUP- 5.418 104.000 4.667 2.000 4.667 PORT: 109,100/108,600. 0 102.000 1-Aug 2-Aug 3-Aug 4-Aug 7-Aug Money Market: The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.14% against the USD to close at 3.5295. Additionally, the currency depreciated by 0.07% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. The local fixed income markets were rela- Indices (TRY) Previous Last Chg. YTD tively flat. The two-year benchmark bond was traded within a tight range of BIST 100 108.545 109.781 1,14% 40,50% 11.59%-11.62%, ending at the 11.60%, unchanged from its previous BIST 30 133.555 134.940 1,04% 41,30% close. BIST-Financial 139.083 140.622 1,11% 35,74% BIST-Industrial 119.040 120.436 1,17% 44,09% Company News: BIST-Services 68.110 68.681 0,84% 38,40% Otokar (OTKAR.TI; NC) has announced a 2Q17 net loss of TRY 9.1mn, Advances Declines Most Active which is below the market consensus of a TRY 1.0mn net loss. (2Q16:TRY Stocks (%) Stocks (%) Stocks Vol (TR) 7.6mn). After the 2Q17 Earnings Results, the Company had attained TRY YGYO 19,10 PRKAB -9,12 THYAO 538.944.535 28.1mn of net profit in 6M17. (6M16: TRY 15.7mn). TIRE 13,98 COMDO -3,44 KOZAA 396.417.527 IHLAS 11,11 TUCLK -2,98 ASELS 352.782.498 Bossa (BOSSA.TI; NC) has announced that the Mandatory Tender Offer ULUUN 11,06 SONME -2,72 GARAN 272.643.273 (MTO) would be performed between August 8 - 21, 2017 (10 trading days). CRFSA 9,55 DMSAS -2,31 ECILC 237.457.504 The MTO price per share will be TRY 4.07 as previously determined. Money Market Previous Last Pr. Mn YE15 Aksa Energy (AKSEN.TI; OP) has announced that its Madagascar HFO O/N Repo (%) 11,80 11,83 11,85 9,50 Power Plant’s installed capacity has increased from 36 MW to 40 MW, and Euro Bond (30 year, $) 159,33 159,33 155,43 147,10 that provisional acceptance of commissioned equipment was approved by Bond (Benchmark, %) 11,6 11,60 11,36 10,94 the Ministry delegation on August 4, 2017. The company stated that the remaining 16 MW of the first phase would be gradually completed by end- Currency Previous Last Chg. YTD August 2017. The first phase, of 66 MW, is expected to create an EBITDA US$ 3,5245 3,5295 0,14% -0,23% of USD 17.6mn in 2017 and USD 45mn in 2018, as the plant will be utilized Euro 4,1465 4,1575 0,27% 12,20% for the full year. The company also stated that its Mali HFO Power Plant’s Euro/Dolar 1,1795 1,18142 0,16% 12,73% 10MW of total 40 MW installed capacity started production on August 4,2017, while the remaining 30 MW would be gradually completed by Au- Commodity Previous Last Chg. YTD gust 2017 (Positive). Oil (Brent spot, $) 52,3 52,1 -0,25% -8,13% Oil (NYMEX future, $) 49,4 49,2 -0,34% -8,67% Erdemir (EREGL. TI; MP) is expected to announce its 2Q17 results Gold (Ounce, $) 1.258,0 1.260,4 0,20% 9,47% today, after the market close. We expect the bottom line to almost double, Silver (XAG, $) 16,3 16,3 -0,02% 2,23% reaching TRY 628mn in 2Q17E. We also forecast the company’s revenues Şeker Funds Previous Last* Chg. YTD rising by ca.60% YoY to TRY 4,268mn, and EBITDA improvement of ca.2.1x YoY to TRY 1,187mn in 2Q17. Market average estimates for Erde- Şeker Portfoy Equity Fund 0,457769 0,462151 0,96% 36,55% mir’s 2Q17 revenues, EBITDA and net income stand at TRY4,392mn, Şeker Portfoy Debt Instruments 0,026005 0,025984 -0,08% 5,87% TRY1,199mn and TRY811mn, respectively. Following the results an- Şeker Portfoy Money Market 1,173815 1,174181 0,03% 6,16% nouncement, Erdemir will host a conference call on August 9th at 17:00 IST Şeker Portfoy Mix Fund 0,022748 0,022844 0,42% 16,04% (15:00 UK) time. Şeker Portfoy Gold Fund 0,022055 0,021928 -0,58% 6,77% Şeker Portfoy Short T. Debt 0,014025 0,014029 0,03% 5,91% * Prices as of 08-Aug-17 Market Watch Tuesday, August 08, 2017 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr No Unexpected Fizz… Coca Cola Icecek’s (CCOLA.TI; OP) net profit World Indices rose 56.2% YoY to TRY 231mn in 2Q17, in line with our TRY 220mn America Previous Last Chg. YTD profit estimate and the market’s TRY 242mn profit forecast. The bottom- Dow Jones (US) 22.093 22.118 0,12% 11,92% line performed positively due to lower FX losses (TRY 38mn in 2Q17, vs. Nasdaq (US) 6.352 6.384 0,51% 18,59% TRY 57mn in 2Q16) on the back of TRY appreciation against the USD and higher operating profitability in 2Q17. On the operational front, the top-line S&P 500 (US) 2.477 2.481 0,16% 10,81% and EBITDA printed almost in line with consensus estimates. CCI recorded Bovespa (Brasil) 66.898 67.940 1,56% 12,81% consolidated sales revenue of TRY 2.559mn, up by 20.2% YoY (Cons: Europe Previous Last Chg. YTD TRY 2.528mn; Seker: TRY 2.520mn). Consolidated EBITDA came in at Dax (Germany) 12.298 12.257 -0,33% 6,76% TRY 493mn, up by 19% YoY in 2Q17 (Cons: TRY 487mn; Seker: TRY FTSE 100 (UK) 7.512 7.532 0,27% 5,45% 472mn), with an EBITDA margin of 19.3% (-0.1pp YoY). We may see a CAC 40 (France) 5.203 5.208 0,09% 7,11% ‘neutral’ market reaction today in line with expectations. MIB30 (Italy) 21.936 22.031 0,43% 14,54% Top-line growth of 20.2% YoY – Consolidated sales volume rose by 3.6% PSI20 (Portugal) 5.253 5.276 0,43% 12,75% YoY to 373mn unit cases in 2Q17. Turkey sales volume climbed 2.9% to 181mn uc for the quarter, while international operational volume rose by ASE (Greece) 830 828 -0,20% 28,62% 4.1% YoY to 191mn uc in 2Q17. Consolidated sales revenue grew by RTSI (Rusia) 1.027 1.033 0,58% -10,38% 20.2% YoY in 2Q17, mostly reflecting the positive impact of conversion Asia Previous Last Chg. YTD from international operations, positive pricing and increase volume. Do- Nikkei (Japan) 19.952 20.056 0,52% 4,93% mestic sales revenue realized at TRY 1,175mn (7.0% YoY) due to a posi- Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 27.563 27.690 0,46% 25,86% tive packaging mix, price increases and successful promotion management Shanghai Comp. (China) 3.262 3.279 0,53% 5,66% in the sparkling category, while int’l sales revenue increased by 34.4% YoY to TRY 1,385mn in 2Q17. Net revenue per unit case rose by 16.2% YoY to KOSPI (South Korea) 2.395 2.399 0,14% 18,37% TRY 6.87 in 2Q17, on a consolidated basis. Domestic net sales per unit Sensex (India) 32.325 32.274 -0,16% 21,21% case increased to TRY 6.48/uc (4.0% YoY), while int’l net sales per unit Turkdex (Set. Price) Previous Last Chg. YTD rose to TRY 7.24/uc (29.1% YoY) in 2Q17. INX30 (AUGUST 17) 134,700 136,325 1,21% 41,60% Consolidated EBITDA printed in line with expectations – Cost per unit USD (AUGUST 17) 3,6194 3,619 -0,01% 1,49% case in international operations rose 19.5% in 2Q17 due to higher raw EURO (AUGUST 17) 4,2825 4,280 -0,06% 13,57% material prices. The quarterly consolidated gross margin contracted by 180 GOLD (AUGUST 17) 144,21 144,29 0,06% 8,24% bps to 35.9%. Consolidated EBITDA climbed 19% YoY to TRY 493mn in Portfolio Inclusio Inclusio Last Chg. BIST 2Q17, while the EBITDA margin declined 0.1pp YoY to 19.3%. Recommend. Date Price Close (%) Relative CCI maintains guidance for 2017 - In 2017, CCI expects Turkey’s volume Vakifbank 30.01.17 4,72 7,16 51,7% 15,8% to grow by low single digits, while int’l operations grow by high single digits, Tofaş 30.01.17 25,84 32,42 25,5% -4,2% and consequently foresees consolidated volume growing by mid-single İsbank 26.07.16 4,42 7,69 74,0% 16,8% digits.
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    The influence of external actors in the Western Balkans A map of geopolitical players www.kas.de Impressum Contact: Florian C. Feyerabend Desk Officer for Southeast Europe/Western Balkans European and International Cooperation Europe/North America team Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Phone: +49 30 26996-3539 E-mail: [email protected] Published by: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. 2018, Sankt Augustin/Berlin Maps: kartoxjm, fotolia Design: yellow too, Pasiek Horntrich GbR Typesetting: Janine Höhle, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Diese Publikation ist/DThe text of this publication is published under a Creative Commons license: “Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 international” (CC BY-SA 4.0), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-sa/4.0/legalcode. ISBN 978-3-95721-471-3 Contents Introduction: The role of external actors in the Western Balkans 4 Albania 9 Bosnia and Herzegovina 14 Kosovo 17 Croatia 21 Macedonia 25 Romania 29 Serbia and Montenegro 32 The geopolitical context 39 3 Introduction: The role of external actors in the Western Balkans by Dr Lars Hänsel and Florian C. Feyerabend Dear readers, A spectre haunts the Western Balkans – the spec- consists of reports from our representatives in the tre of geopolitics. Once again, the region is at risk various countries involved. Along with the non-EU of becoming a geostrategic chessboard for exter- countries in the Western Balkans, this study also nal actors. Warnings are increasingly being voiced considers the situation in Croatia and Romania. in Brussels and other Western capitals, as well as in the region itself. Russia, China, Turkey and the One thing is clear: the integration of the Western Gulf States are ramping up their political, eco- Balkans into Euro-Atlantic and European struc- nomic and cultural influence in this enclave within tures is already well advanced, with close ties and the European Union – with a variety of resources, interdependencies.
  • WOOD's Winter in Prague

    WOOD's Winter in Prague

    emerging europe conference WOOD’s Winter in Prague Tuesday 5 December to Friday 8 December 2017 Please join us for our flagship event - now in its6th year - spanning 4 jam-packed days. We expect to host over 160 companies representing more than 15 countries. Click here & For more information please contact your WOOD sales representative: Tuesday: Energy, Industrials and Materials Register Warsaw +48 222 22 1530 Wednesday: TMT and Utilities Now! Prague +420 222 096 453 Thursday: Consumer, Healthcare and Real Estate London +44 20 3530 7685 Friday: Diversified and Financials [email protected] Invited Companies by country Bolded confirmed Austria Hungary Kruk LUKOIL Aygaz AT & S ANY LPP Luxoft BIM Atrium Budapest Stock Exchange Mabion M.video Bizim Toptan BUWOG Gedeon Richter mBank Magnit Brisa DO&CO Graphisoft Park Medicalgorithmics MMK Cimsa Erste Group Bank MOL Group Orange Polska Moscow Exchange Coca-Cola Icecek Immofinanz OTP Bank Pfleiderer Group Mostotrest Dogus Otomotiv OMV Waberer’s PGE MTS Erdemir PORR Wizz Air PGNiG NLMK Garanti Raiffeisen Bank Iraq PKN Orlen Norilsk Nickel Halkbank Strabag DNO PKO BP NovaTek Is REIT Telekom Austria Genel Energy PKP Cargo O’KEY Isbank Uniqa Kazakhstan PLAY PIK Kardemir Vienna Insurance Group KMG EP Prime Car Management Polymetal International Koc Holding Warimpex Nostrum Oil & Gas PZU Polyus Lokman Hekim Croatia Steppe Cement Synthos Raven Russia Migros Ticaret Podravka Lithuania Tauron Rosneft Otokar Czech Republic Siauliu Bankas Warsaw Stock Exchange Rostelecom Pegasus Airlines CEZ Poland