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SOUTHEASTEUROPE in Focus No. 5/2020 External Actors Series: Turkey With contributions by Dimitar Bechev Srecko Latal Hamdi Fırat Büyük Dino Mujadžević Birgül Demirtaş Sabina Pacariz Ahmet Erdi Öztürk Beken Saatçioğlu Mariya Hake Edited by Christian Hagemann © Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft, August 2020 Widenmayerstr. 49 80538 München Email: [email protected] URL: www.sogde.org All rights reserved Southeast Europe in Focus 5/ 2020 Editor: Christian Hagemann, Deputy Director of the Southeast Europe Association, Munich Published by Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft e.V. / Southeast Europe Association, August 2020, Munich. This publication is written within the framework of the project “Reality Check Series: Sources, Tools and Impact of External Non-EU-Engagement in Southeast Europe” led by the Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft (SOG) with the support of the German Federal Foreign Office (Stability Pact for Southeast Europe sponsored by Germany). About the project Recently, the Western Balkans region and the whole of Southeast Europe have developed into a showcase of great power interests. In particular, Russia, Turkey, and China are coming to the fore as increasingly committed external actors (in addition to the European Union and the USA). Nevertheless, there are differences in the motivations and goals of the actors concerned. The project of the Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft / Southeast Europe Association took a closer look at the motives, instruments, and effects of the influence of Russia, Turkey, and China. The project examined the geostrategically, security policy, and systemically relevant dimensions of these actors’ engagement, taking into account also the economic, cultural, social and societal processes (certainly from a historical perspective) in the entire region of Southeast Europe. The contributions in this volume present the most important results of Turkey's footprint in Southeast Europe as presented and discussed at an international conference held by the Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft / Southeast Europe Association in Berlin on 5-6 June 2019: Reality Check Series: Sources, Tools and Impact of Non-EU- Engagement in Southeast Europe. Part II: Turkey. The editor is grateful to the authors of the publication for making their contributions to the conference available in a revised version and considering the conference’s discussion as well as later developments. Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft / Southeast Europe Association and the editor. About the SOG: The Southeast Europe Association (Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft – SOG) is an organisation that seeks to bridge political debate with scientific dialogue and socio-cultural exchange about Southeast Europe. The SOG is based on individual membership and is supported by the German Federal Foreign Office in Berlin. Since its establishment in 1952, the SOG is an important liaison organisation for German foreign policy. For more information: www.sogde.org Layout: Wladimir Dirksen Graphic Design: Johanna Deimel / Christian Hagemann Photograph on cover: Hansjörg Brey 1 SOUTHEAST EUROPE IN FOCUS l REALITY CHECK SERIES: TURKEY Table of Contents ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION / NOTE BY THE EDITOR Christian Hagemann ................................................................................................................................................ 4 TURKEY’S POLICY IN THE BALKANS - CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN THE ERDOĞAN ERA Dimitar Bechev ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST EUROPE AND TURKEY - A GORDIAN KNOT OR LOOSE TIES? Mariya Hake .......................................................................................................................................................... 14 TURKEY’S SOFT POWER IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE DURING THE AKP PERIOD Ahmet Erdi Öztürk ................................................................................................................................................. 29 POLITICAL INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE IN CURRENT TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY Srecko Latal and Hamdi Firat Büyük ..................................................................................................................... 46 TURKEY AND THE EU: PARTNERS OR COMPETITORS IN THE WESTERN BALKANS? Beken Saatçioğlu ................................................................................................................................................... 64 RECONSIDERING DILEMMAS OF TURKEY’S FOREIGN POLICY: THE CASE OF THE BALKANS Birgül Demirtaş ..................................................................................................................................................... 73 POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE CLOSER COOPERATION BETWEEN SERBIA AND TURKEY Sabina Pačariz ....................................................................................................................................................... 84 PRO-TURKISH ACTIVISM AND MEDIA IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (2002-2015) Dino Mujadzevic .................................................................................................................................................... 97 ABOUT THE AUTHORS .................................................................................................................................. 105 2 SOUTHEAST EUROPE IN FOCUS l REALITY CHECK SERIES: TURKEY Abbreviations AKP - Justice and Development Party (Turkey) NGO - Non-Governmental Organisation ANAP - Motherland Party (Turkey) NSR - New Silk Road BBP - Great Union Party (Turkey) OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development BESA - Ethnic Albanian political party in Macedonia OSCE - Organization for Security and Co-operation in BiH - Bosnia and Herzegovina Europe BKT - Banka Kombetare Traktere (Albanian bank) PIC - Peace Implementation Council BRI - Belt and Road Initiative PM - Prime Minister CAATSA - Countering America’s Adversaries through PYD - Kurdish Democratic Union Party (Syria) Sanctions Act RCC - Regional Cooperation Council CDA - Critical Discourse Analysis RP - Welfare Party (Turkey) CESEE - Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe SAP - European Union Stabilization and Association CHP - Republican People’s Party (Turkey) Process CU - Customs Union SDA - Party of Democratic Action (Bosnia and Diyanet - Turkish Directorate of Religious Affairs Herzegovina) DOST - Bulgarian Democrats for Responsibility, SDP - Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Solidarity and Tolerance Party Herzegovina DPS - Movement for Rights and Freedoms (ethnic SEE - Southeast Europe Turkish party from Bulgaria) SEECP - Southeast European Cooperation Process DUI - Democratic Union for Integration Party (ethnic SETA - Turkish Foundation for Political, Economic and Albanian party from North Macedonian) Social Research DYP - True Path Party (Turkey) SMEs - Small and Medium-sized Enterprises ENP - European Neighbourhood Policy TGNA - Turkish Grand National Assembly EULEX - European Union Rule of Law Mission in TIKA - Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency Kosovo TRT - Turkish Radio and Television Corporation FDI - Foreign Direct Investment UEBD - Union of European Balkan Democrats FETÖ - so-called “Fethullahist Terrorist Organization” UETD - Union of European Turkish Democrats FM - Foreign Minister UID - Union of International Democrats FTA - Free Trade Agreement WB - Western Balkans ICBH - Islamic Community in Bosnia and Herzegovina YPG - Kurdish People's Protection Units (Syria) IMF - International Monetary Fund YSK - Turkish Supreme Election Council ISIS - Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant YTB - Directorate for Turks Abroad and Related MIT - Turkish secret service Communities MP - Member of Parliament 3 SOUTHEAST EUROPE IN FOCUS l REALITY CHECK SERIES: TURKEY Introduction / Note by the Editor Christian Hagemann Deputy Director of the Southeast Europe Association, Munich E-Mail: [email protected] Turkey is part of Southeast Europe. In this regard, it is abroad is appreciated by many, the important role very different from the other external actors religion plays in its foreign cultural policy often limits considered in this series who are truly external. In Turkey’s appeal among different audiences, and has contrast, as Dimitar Bechev highlights in his even split religious groups after the fallout of President contribution to this volume, even if only the region of Erdoğan with the Gülen Movement. In contrast to the Eastern Thrace is considered as Turkey’s share of the usual perception, political rallies held by the Turkish Balkans, it would be nevertheless on its own the President in Sarajevo or other places in the Balkans second most populous country in the region, right should mostly be understood as directed at a domestic after Romania. Beyond its geographical location, Turkish audience rather than at the Balkan spectators Turkey also looks back on a centuries-long shared present at these events. Overall, most experts at the history with the region and many citizens of modern conference agreed that Turkey is neither able nor Turkey can trace their ancestral roots to places like trying to make an alternative offer to that of the EU to Skopje or Sarajevo. the region, but that the EU integration
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