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A Fundamental Valuation of the BMW Group

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A Fundamental Valuation of the BMW Group A Fundamental Valuation of the BMW Group Authors: Jalpesh Madlani – MSc Applied Economics and Finance Jens Chr. Ulvestad – MSc Applied Economics and Finance Supervisor: Jeppe Schoenfeld, Deloitte Number of Pages and Total Characters: 120 pages, 254.877 characters Submission Date: October 22nd 2012 Master Thesis – Copenhagen Business School 2012 Resumé This thesis conducts an in-depth analysis of the BMW Group in order to determine the fair value of the Group’s share price and to conclude whether it is over- or undervalued. The BMW Group is one of the largest automotive manufacturers that focus on the premium segment, producing both automobiles and motorcycles. The Group is headquartered in Munich, Germany and its business operations are divided into three segments: Automotive, Motorcycle and Financial Services, where the Automotive segment provide by far the largest source of revenue. The BMW Group is analyzed by conducting a strategic and financial analysis, where several models are applied and financial drivers thoroughly analyzed from a historical perspective. The findings from these analyses act as a foundation for forecasting the future performance of the Group. The share value is estimated by utilizing the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model on the forecasted figures. A multiple valuation model (EV/EBITDA) is also conducted in order to triangulate the value derived from the DCF valuation with a relative valuation based on market multiples. Empirically, the thesis relies on both primary and secondary data such as interviews with equity analysts, annual reports, academic books and articles, research papers, news articles from approved websites and data from the Bloomberg terminal database and Thomson ONE Banker. The automotive industry was severely hit by the financial crisis in 2008-2009, which affected global vehicle sales negatively and even led to the bailout of automotive manufacturers, General Motors and Chrysler, amongst others. However, despite the downturn in the industry, the BMW Group has performed relatively well. The Group has also been able to capitalize during the global recovery after the financial crisis, fuelled by increasing sales in Asia/Oceania and especially in China. Increasing worldwide vehicle sales in addition to the BMW Group’s solid brand name, product portfolio and financial position, places the company in a good position to capitalize on future growth in the automotive industry, which is also reflected in the fundamental valuation of the Group. The fundamental valuation (DCF approach) based on the forecasts for the Group proposes a share price of €126,87, which suggests that the market share price of the BMW Group is undervalued as of January 1st 2012. Table of Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Problem Statement .................................................................................................................................. 4 1.1.1 Main Research Question: ................................................................................................................... 5 1.1.2. Sub Questions: ................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2.1 Research Approach ............................................................................................................................ 5 1.2.2 Data Collection .................................................................................................................................. 6 1.2.3 Validity and Reliability ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.2.4 Delimitation ...................................................................................................................................... 8 1.2.5 Structure of the Thesis ....................................................................................................................... 9 2. Presentation of the BMW Group .................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Company Facts ....................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 History and Overview of BMW Group ..................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Organizational Structure ........................................................................................................................ 12 2.4 Ownership Structure .............................................................................................................................. 13 2.5 Share Performance ................................................................................................................................. 14 2.6 Strategy of the BMW Group ................................................................................................................... 15 2.7 Main Competitors / Peer Group ............................................................................................................. 16 3. Strategic Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 18 3.1 External Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 18 3.1.1 Gross Domestic Product Trends ....................................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 Government Regulations and Subsidies ........................................................................................... 20 3.1.3 Currency Risk ................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.4 Commodity Prices ............................................................................................................................ 21 3.2 Industry Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 22 3.2.1 Porters Five Forces .......................................................................................................................... 22 3.2.2 Market Share and Structure ............................................................................................................. 28 3.3 Internal Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 38 3.3.1 BMW Brand Name ........................................................................................................................... 38 1 3.3.2 Car Models and Product Life Cycle ................................................................................................... 39 3.3.3 Common Automobile Platform ........................................................................................................ 41 3.3.4 Market Segment Focus .................................................................................................................... 42 3.4 Strategic Analysis Summary .................................................................................................................... 42 4. Financial Analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 44 4.1 Separation of the Financial Statements between the Different Operating Segments .............................. 45 4.1.1 Separation of Peer Statements ........................................................................................................ 47 4.2 Reformulation of Financial Statements ................................................................................................... 47 4.2.1 Reformulation of the Income Statement .......................................................................................... 47 4.2.2 Reformulation of the Balance Sheet ................................................................................................ 49 4.3.3 Reformulating Financial Statements of Peers ................................................................................... 53 4.3 Profitability Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 53 4.3.1 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) .................................................................................................... 55 4.3.2 Profit Margin (NOPAT margin) ......................................................................................................... 56 4.3.3 Turnover Rate of Invested Capital .................................................................................................... 57 4.3.4 Analysis of Profit margin and Turnover Rate of Invested Capital ...................................................... 58 Trend and Common Size Analysis of Revenue and Expenses ..................................................................... 58
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