Ballistic Missiles: Threat and Response Hearings
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
S. HRG. 106±339 BALLISTIC MISSILES: THREAT AND RESPONSE HEARINGS BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED SIXTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION APRIL 15 AND 20, MAY 4, 5, 13, 25, 26, AND SEPTEMBER 16, 1999 Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/senate VerDate 11-SEP-98 15:42 Mar 29, 2000 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 6011 Sfmt 6011 56777.001 SFRELA1 PsN: SFRELA1 BALLISTIC MISSILES: THREAT AND RESPONSE VerDate 11-SEP-98 15:42 Mar 29, 2000 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 6019 Sfmt 6019 56777.001 SFRELA1 PsN: SFRELA1 S. HRG. 106±339 BALLISTIC MISSILES: THREAT AND RESPONSE HEARINGS BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED SIXTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION APRIL 15 AND 20, MAY 4, 5, 13, 25, 26, AND SEPTEMBER 16, 1999 Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/senate U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 56±777 CC WASHINGTON : 2000 VerDate 11-SEP-98 15:42 Mar 29, 2000 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 56777.001 SFRELA1 PsN: SFRELA1 COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS JESSE HELMS, North Carolina, Chairman RICHARD G. LUGAR, Indiana JOSEPH R. BIDEN, JR., Delaware PAUL COVERDELL, Georgia PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland CHUCK HAGEL, Nebraska CHRISTOPHER J. DODD, Connecticut GORDON H. SMITH, Oregon JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts ROD GRAMS, Minnesota RUSSELL D. FEINGOLD, Wisconsin SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas PAUL D. WELLSTONE, Minnesota CRAIG THOMAS, Wyoming BARBARA BOXER, California JOHN ASHCROFT, Missouri ROBERT G. TORRICELLI, New Jersey BILL FRIST, Tennessee STEPHEN E. BIEGUN, Staff Director EDWIN K. HALL, Minority Staff Director (II) VerDate 11-SEP-98 15:42 Mar 29, 2000 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 56777.001 SFRELA1 PsN: SFRELA1 CONTENTS APRIL 15, 1999 U.S. VULNERABILITY TO BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK Page Helms, Hon. Jesse, U.S. Senator from North Carolina, opening statement ....... 1 Weinberger, Hon. Caspar, former Secretary of Defense and chairman, Forbes Magazine, Washington, DC ................................................................................. 4 APRIL 20, 1999 CURRENT AND GROWING MISSILE THREATS TO THE U.S. Lilley, Hon. James R., former U.S. Ambassador to China, the American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC ............................................................... 34 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 39 Schlesinger, Hon. James R., former Secretary of Defense, former Secretary of Energy, and former Director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency ........ 15 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 18 Schneider, Hon. William, Jr., former Under Secretary of State for Security Assistance, Science, and Technology, adjunct fellow, Hudson Institute, Washington, DC ................................................................................................... 26 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 31 Walpole, Robert D., National Intelligence Officer for Strategic and Nuclear Programs, Center for Strategic and International Studies, prepared state- ment ...................................................................................................................... 53 MAY 4, 1999 BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY: IS THE UNITED STATES READY FOR A DECISION TO DEPLOY? Biden, Hon. Joseph R., Jr., U.S. Senator from Delaware, prepared statement . 92 Garwin, Dr. Richard L., Philip D. Reed senior fellow for science and tech- nology, Council on Foreign Relations ................................................................. 74 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 78 Graham, Dr. William R., former Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy .......................................................................................... 63 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 66 Helms, Hon. Jesse, U.S. Senator from North Carolina, prepared statement ..... 60 Piotrowski, Gen. John, former Commander in Chief, Space Command, Colo- rado Springs, CO .................................................................................................. 73 Shelby, Hon. Richard C., U.S. Senator from Alabama ......................................... 61 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 62 Wright, Dr. David C., research fellow, Security Studies Program, Massachu- setts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA .................................................. 81 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 85 (III) VerDate 11-SEP-98 15:42 Mar 29, 2000 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 56777.001 SFRELA1 PsN: SFRELA1 IV Page MAY 5, 1999 DOES THE ABM TREATY STILL SERVE U.S. STRATEGIC AND ARMS CONTROL OBJECTIVES IN A CHANGED WORLD? Biden, Hon. Joseph R., Jr., U.S. Senator from Delaware, prepared statement . 149 Habiger, Gen. Eugene E., former Commander in Chief, U.S. Strategic Com- mand, Omaha, NE ............................................................................................... 139 Lehman, Hon. Ronald F., former Director of the Arms Control and Disar- mament Agency .................................................................................................... 122 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 127 Remarks entitled ``Changing Realities,'' November 1992, published 1993 ......................................................................................................... 129 Remarks entitled ``START II, Missile Non-Proliferation, and Missile DefenseÐThe Offense-Defense Relationship: Past and Future.'' February 14, 1996, at Carnegie Endowment Seminar ....................... 132 Payne, Dr. Keith B., president and director of research, National Institute for Public Policy; and adjunct professor, Georgetown University, Wash- ington, DC ............................................................................................................. 141 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 144 Woolsey, Hon. R. James, former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency ... 116 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 120 MAY 13, 1999 ABM TREATY, START II, AND MISSILE DEFENSE Hadley, Hon. Stephen, former Assistant Secretary of Defense, partner, Shea & Gardner, Washington, DC ............................................................................... 171 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 173 Joseph Hon. Robert G., former Ambassador to the ABM Treaty's Standing Consultative Commission; Director, Center for Counter Proliferation Re- search, National Defense University, Washington, DC .................................... 193 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 197 Lee, William T., former analyst for the Defense Intelligence Agency; adjunct fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC ....... 211 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 212 Annex 1: Questions submitted by the Honorable Curt Weldon to the CIA and CIA's responses ................................................................ 216 Annex 2: Implications of the ABM Treaty Protocols and Agreed State- ments ...................................................................................................... 217 Annex 3: Post Soviet Union Russian Missile and Air Weapons Devel- opment .................................................................................................... 220 Smith, Hon. David J., former Chief U.S. Negotiator to the Defense and Space Talks; president, Global Horizons Inc., Annandale, VA ........................ 178 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 184 MAY 25, 1999 THE LEGAL STATUS OF THE ABM TREATY Feith, Douglas J., former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Negotia- tion Policy, partner, Feith & Zell; accompanied by George Miron, Wash- ington, DC ............................................................................................................. 228 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 231 Supplementary remarks of Douglas J. Feith and George Miron on the Legal Status of the ABM Treaty .................................................... 304 Glennon, Michael J., professor of law, the University of California, Davis, CA .......................................................................................................................... 276 Prepared statement of ...................................................................................... 280 Rivkin, David B., Jr., partner, Hunton & Williams, accompanied by Lee A. Casey, Washington, DC .................................................................................