This page intentionally left blank The Origins and Development of Financial Markets and Institutions Collectively, mankind has never had it so good despite periodic economic crises of which the current sub-prime crisis is merely the latest example. Much of this success is attributable to the increasing efficiency of the world’s financial institutions as finance has proved to be one of the most important causal factors in economic performance. In a series of original essays, leading financial and economic historians examine how financial innovations from the seventeenth century to the present have continually challenged established institutional arr- angements forcing change and adaptation by governments, financial intermediaries, and financial markets. Where these have been success- ful, wealth creation and growth have followed. When they failed, growth slowed and sometimes economic decline has followed. These essays illustrate the difficulties of coordinating financial innovations in order to sustain their benefits for the wider economy, a theme that will be of interest to policy makers as well as economic historians. JEREMY ATACK is Professor of Economics and Professor of History at Vanderbilt University. He is also a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and has served as co-editor of the Journal of Economic History. He is co-author of A New Economic View of American History (1994). LARRY NEAL is Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where he was founding director of the European Union Center. He is a visiting professor at the London School of Economics and a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). He is the author of many books, including The Rise of Financial Capitalism (Cambridge, 1990) and The Economics of Europe and the European Union (Cambridge, 2007). The Origins and Development of Financial Markets and Institutions From the Seventeenth Century to the Present Jeremy Atack Larry Neal CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Dubai, Tokyo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521895170 © Cambridge University Press 2009 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2009 ISBN-13 978-0-511-75734-1 eBook (NetLibrary) ISBN-13 978-0-521-89517-0 Hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. For Becky and Peg to whom we owe much Contents List of figures page ix List of tables xii List of contributors xv Preface and acknowledgments xxi 1. Financial innovations and crises: The view backwards from Northern Rock 1 jeremy atack 2. An economic explanation of the early Bank of Amsterdam, debasement, bills of exchange and the emergence of the first central bank 32 stephen quinn and william roberds 3. With a view to hold: The emergence of institutional investors on the Amsterdam securities market during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries 71 oscar gelderblom and joost jonker 4. Was John Law’s System a bubble? The Mississippi Bubble revisited 99 francois¸ r. velde 5. Sir George Caswall vs. the Duke of Portland: Financial contracts and litigation in the wake of the South Sea Bubble 121 gary s. shea 6. The bell jar: Commercial interest rates between two revolutions, 1688–1789 161 marc flandreau, christophe galimard, clemens jobst and pilar nogues-marco 7. Comparing the UK and US financial systems, 1790–1830 209 richard sylla vii viii Contents 8. Natural experiments in financial reform in the nineteenth century: The Davis and Gallman analysis 241 larry neal 9. Regulatory changes and the development of the US banking market, 1870–1914: A study of profit rates and risk in national banks 262 richard j. sullivan 10. Anticipating the stock market crash of 1929: The view from the floor of the stock exchange 294 eugene n. white 11. The development of “non-traditional” open market operations: Lessons from FDR’s silver purchase program 319 richard c.k. burdekin and marc d. weidenmier 12. The interwar shocks to US–Cuban trade relations: A view through sugar company stock price data 345 alan dye and richard sicotte 13. Central bank reaction functions during the inter-war gold standard: A view from the periphery 388 kirsten wandschneider 14. When do stock market booms occur? The macroeconomic and policy environments of twentieth century booms 416 michael d. bordo and david c. wheelock 15. Lessons from history for the twenty-first century 450 larry neal Index 465 Figures 1.1 “Passing on the Risks.” page 4 1.2 Crisis in the US mortgage market: sub-prime loan volume, sub-prime mortgages as share of all mortgages and mortgage delinquency rates by mortgage type. 7 2.1 Indices of silver per coin. 37 2.2 Mint points for the rixdollar in 1609. 42 2.3 Mint points for the rixdollar and lioncrown, 1609 and 1615. 42 2.4 Seigniorage and penalties for rixdollars in 1607, in florins per day. 43 2.5 Mint points for heavy and debased coins, 1610 to 1620. 48 2.6 Mint points for the rixdollar, the debased rixdollar and the patagon, 1619–1621. 50 2.7 Production of heavy silver coins at five provincial mints. 50 2.8 Lioncrown seigniorage and penalties, in florins per day. 52 2.9 Rixdollar seigniorage and penalties, in florins per day. 52 2.10 Seigniorage and penalties for rixdollars in 1620, in florins per day. 53 2.11 Wisselbank deposits and debasement. 53 2.12 Mint points for the rixdollar, lioncrown and patagon, 1622–1638. 55 2.13 Dutch CPI and production of heavy silver coin. 56 2.14 Effects of the 1638 toleration. 58 2.15 Deposits at the Amsterdam Wisselbank. 62 3.1 The income from real estate, securities, and all investment as a percentage of total income at the Burgerweeshuis, 1639–1779. 74 3.2 Government bonds purchases by the Burgerweeshuis, 1650–1800. 77 3.3 The composition of the annual income of Amsterdam’s Oudezijds Huiszittenhuis in the eighteenth century. 79 ix x List of figures 3.4 The nominal value of obligations issued by Holland in the portfolio of Amsterdam’s Nieuwezijds Huiszittenhuis, 1600–1800. 80 3.5 The value of financial assets in the portfolios of several Amsterdam guilds, 1650–1800. 87 4.1 French public finances before and after the System. 108 4.2 Prices of shares in the Compagnie des Indes. From June 1720 to February 1721. 109 6.1 Summary of interest rates, 1450–1889. 165 6.2 Amsterdam shadow interest rate, from London Course of Exchange (%). 187 6.3 London shadow interest rate, from Amsterdam Course of Exchange (%). 188 6.4 Paris shadow interest rate, from London Course of Exchange (%). 188 6.5 Commercial rates, five-year moving averages (%). 190 6.6 Seasonality in interest rates, 1740–1770. 192 6.7 Seasonality in interest rates, 1770–1789. 192 6.8 Paris shadow interest rate, from London and Amsterdam (%). 194 6.9 Britain: various interest rates (%). 196 6.10 France: various interest rates (%). 196 9.1 Profit rates of national banks by region. 268 9.2 Structural profit premia and risk. 284 9.3 Capitalization of US national banks, 1870 to 1914. 285 10.1 Price of a seat on the NYSE. 298 10.2 Cumulative abnormal monthly returns to NYSE seat, 1928–1929. 302 10.3 Actual and forecast monthly NYSE seat. 304 10.4 The Curb Exchange, 1926–1933. 311 10.5 Regional exchanges, 1927–1930. 311 10.6 Actual and forecast monthly Curb seat prices, 1928–1930. 315 11.1 Construction permits in silver and non-silver states, 1931–1938. 326 11.2 Personal income in silver and non-silver states, 1929–1938. 326 11.3 Silver, non-silver money, and prices, 1934:1–1939:6. 328 11.4 Non-silver-state impulse responses (ordering #1). 329 11.5 Silver-state impulse responses (ordering #1). 330 11.6 Non-silver-state impulse responses (ordering #2). 332 11.7 Silver-state impulse responses (ordering #2). 333 List of figures xi 11.8 Historical decompositions of SSTATES. 335 11.9 Non-silver-state impulse responses for structural model. 337 11.10 Silver-state impulse responses for structural model. 338 11.11 Non-silver-state impulse responses for monetary base. 340 11.12 Silver-state impulse responses for monetary base. 341 12.1 Sugar prices, cif New York. 351 12.2 Sugar-company equity indices. 357 12.3 Moving-window exclusion tests on structural breaks. 368 12.4A Successive fixed-window exclusion tests on iterative structural breaks, January 1921–October 1926. 370 12.4B Successive fixed-window exclusion tests on iterative structural breaks, April 1927–December 1931. 371 12.5A Market risk of sugar company stocks by supplier area. 373 12.5B Industry risk of sugar company stocks by supplier area. 373 13.1 Index of industrial production (1938¼100). 403 13.2A Bank rates for Britain, Austria, and Germany. 406 13.2B Bank rates for Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland. 406 13.3 Frequency and magnitude of bank rate changes ( January 1925–December 1931). 407 14.1 Number of countries with an ongoing stock market boom in given month, 1924–2000. 425 14.2 Five-year moving average correlation of cross-country returns.