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Foreign Exchange and Trade Policy ECONOMIC REPORT AND BALANCE SHEET 1392 CHAPTER 12 FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND TRADE POLICY Trade 1 ran's foreign trade experienced un- Figure 12.1. Export-import ratio ﻧﻤﻮدار 13-1- ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺻﺎدرات و واردات ﮔﻤﺮﻛﻲ ﻛﺎﻻ(درﺻﺪ) -favorable conditions in 1392. Intensifi cation of financial and trade sanctions, th (percent) 11 Presidential election and its export-import ratio (customs) Iensuing effect on the political environment non-oil export-import ratio (customs) of the country, and the new round of nuclear 65 talks in Geneva were among fundamental factors that impacted Iran's exports and 50 imports. Although Geneva negotiations led to an interim agreement between Iran and the P5+1 in early-Azar 1392, the volume of 35 foreign trade did not increase as expected since the implementation date was set almost two months later2 and several difficulties 20 1388 1389 1390 1391 1392 arose in this regard. Table 12.1. Foreign Trade Percentage change Share (percent) 1390 1391 1392 1391 1392 1391 1392 Value (million dollars) 1. Imports 61,808 53,451 49,709 -13.5 -7.0 62.1 61.2 2. Exports 33,819 32,567 31,552 -3.7 -3.1 37.9 38.8 Deficit (2-1) -27,990 -20,884 -18,157 -25.4 -13.1 Total (1+2) 95,627 86,018 81,261 -10.0 -5.5 100.0 100.0 Volume (thousand tons) 1. Imports 38,379 39,481 33,684 2.9 -14.7 36.1 29.3 2. Exports 66,429 69,936 81,103 5.3 16.0 63.9 70.7 Total (1+2) 104,808 109,417 114,787 4.4 4.9 100.0 100.0 Source: Foreign Trade Statistics, Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration. 1 Figures and analyses mentioned in the present chapter are based upon the data released by the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration. 2 Implementation date of Geneva Agreement was on Dey 30, 1392. 71 Chapter 12 FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND TRADE POLICY Uncertain economic conditions combined a share of 31.5 percent, "foodstuffs and live with the prevalent recession in major animals" 21.4 percent, "chemicals" 14.7 advanced economies and trade partners of percent, and "iron and steel" 7.4 percent, in Iran led to continued decline in foreign trade total imports, in terms of value. Total share transactions of Iran for the second consecutive of the mentioned groups in the value of year. Based on data released by the Islamic imports was 75.0 percent, down from 76.1 Republic of Iran Customs Administration, in percent in 1391. 1392, value of trade decreased by 5.5 per- cent to $81,261 million. However, the volume (weight) of trade increased by 4.9 percent ﻧﻤﻮدار 13-2 - رﺷﺪ imports وارداتrate ofﮔﻤﺮﻛﻲ ﻛﺎﻻ(درﺻﺪFigure 12.2.( Growth compared with 1391, to 114,787 thousand tons. The share of exports in foreign trade (percent) was 38.8 percent, in terms of value, and 70.7 growth in volume of imports percent, in terms of volume, in 1392. These growth in price of imported goods (dollar/ton) growth in value of imports figures indicated about 1.0 and 6.7 percentage 40 points rise, respectively, compared with 30 1391. The relatively higher increase in the 20 volume share of exported goods in total traded goods of Iran, compared to the value 10 share, shows that the structure of Iran's 0 exported goods has shifted mainly to heavy -10 raw materials with lower unit values. -20 1388 1389 1390 1391 1392 Imports In 1392, the CIF value of imports (through Customs) declined by 7.0 percent Figure 12.3. Composition of imports by use to $49,709 million, the lowest since 1387. Moreover, the volume of imports reached (percent) 33,684 thousand tons, down by 14.7 percent consumer goods raw materials and intermediate goods compared with the year before. "Iron and capital goods goods not elsewhere classified steel" and "cereals and cereal preparations" 70 had the lion's share in the fall of the value of 60 imports in 1392. In this year, the price of 50 each ton of imported goods reached $1,476, 40 up by 9.0 percent compared with 1391. 30 Regarding the composition of imports by 20 use, share of "consumer goods" in total 10 0 imports increased by 2.0 percentage points 1388 1389 1390 1391 1392 to 16.6 percent in 1392. Conversely, total share of "raw materials and intermediate goods" and "capital goods", which are essential to production, decreased from 83.5 In 1392, the United Arab Emirates was percent in 1391 to 82.6 percent in 1392. Iran's largest trading partner in terms of imports for the 11th consecutive year, followed Review of imported goods reveals that by China, India, South Korea, Turkey, "machinery and transportation vehicles" had Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, 72 ECONOMIC REPORT AND BALANCE SHEET 1392 and Russia. Concentration indices1 of Iran’s percentage points. Imports from the Asian imports from the first 3, 5 and 10 countries countries increased by 5.9 percent, compared increased to respectively 52.1, 67.4, and with 1391, to $38,658 million. Europe, with 81.3 percent compared with 1391. a share of 20.2 percent, was the second large exporter to Iran. The value of imports from Distribution of imports by continents Europe was $10,046 million. The top four indicates that the share of Asia in Iran’s exporting countries to Iran were Asian and imports was 77.8 percent in 1392, up by 9.5 the next six were from Europe. Figure 12.4. Composition of imports in terms Figure 12.5. Composition of imports in terms ﻧﻤﻮدار 13-5- ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎي وارداﺗﻲ ﮔﻤﺮﻛﻲ از ﻧﻈﺮ ﻧﻤﻮدار 13-4- ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎي وارداﺗﻲ ﮔﻤﺮﻛﻲ از ﻧﻈﺮ of value of volume (percent) (percent) foodstuffs and live animals foodstuffs and live animals mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials iron and steel iron and steel chemicals machinery and transportation vehicles machinery and transportation vehicles others others chemicals mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials 40 60 30 45 20 30 10 15 0 0 1388 1389 1390 1391 1392 1388 1389 1390 1391 1392 Table 12.2. Composition of Imports by Use (million dollars) Percentage change Share (percent) 1390 1391▲ 1392 1391 1392 1391 1392 Raw materials and intermediate goods 40,262 36,115 33,208 -10.3 -8.1 67.6 66.8 Capital goods 11,533 8,495 7,864 -26.3 -7.4 15.9 15.8 Consumer goods 8,575 7,792 8,256 -9.1 6.0 14.6 16.6 Goods not elsewhere classified 1,437 1,049 382 -27.0 -63.6 1.9 0.8 Total 61,808 53,451 49,709 -13.5 -7.0 100.0 100.0 Table 12.3. Value of Imports by Major Components (million dollars) Percentage change Share (percent) 1390 1391 1392 1391 1392 1391 1392 Foodstuffs and live animals 7,388 11,517 10,632 55.9 -7.7 21.5 21.4 Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials 3,920 1,538 1,600 -60.8 4.0 2.9 3.2 Chemicals 7,441 6,773 7,281 -9.0 7.5 12.7 14.7 Iron and steel 8,357 6,121 3,684 -26.8 -39.8 11.5 7.4 Machinery and transportation vehicles 22,136 16,271 15,671 -26.5 -3.7 30.4 31.5 Others 12,566 11,230 10,841 -10.6 -3.5 21.0 21.8 Total 61,808 53,451 49,709 -13.5 -7.0 100.0 100.0 1 Concentration indices are calculated as the sum of the shares of the first 3, 5, and 10 countries in total imports. 73 Chapter 12 FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND TRADE POLICY Review of imports by group of countries In this year, exports of industrial goods, reveals that in 1392, imports from ESCAP in terms of value, declined by a negligible member countries declined by 2.8 percent to 0.1 percent to $25,121 million. The share of $28,343 million, albeit lower than the industrial goods in total value of exports decrease in total amount of imports. There- through Customs reached 79.6 percent, fore, share of ESCAP member countries in indicating 2.4 percentage points increase total imports increased by nearly 2.5 per- compared with the year before. centage points from 54.6 percent in 1391 to 57.0 percent in 1392. Shares of the European ﻧﻤﻮدار 13-6 - رﺷﺪ of exportsﺻﺎدرات rate ﮔﻤﺮﻛﻲ ﻛﺎﻻ(Growth درﺻﺪ).Figure 12.6 Union and ECO member countries in total imports were 14.1 and 9.2 percent, down by (percent) 4.8 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively. growth in volume of exports growth in price of exported goods (dollar/ton) Imports from the Asian Clearing Union growth in value of exports almost doubled and share of this group in 60 total imports increased from 4.5 percent in 1391 to 9.8 percent in 1392. 40 20 Exports 0 In 1392, value of exports (through Cus- toms) decreased by 3.1 percent to $31,552 -20 1388 1389 1390 1391 1392 million. In terms of volume (weight), how- ever, exports increased by 16.0 percent to 81,103 thousand tons. Moreover, the value In 1392, value of exports of agricultural of industrial exports remained relatively un- and traditional goods declined by 17.4 changed compared with 1391 and the value percent to $4,594 million. Therefore, the of exports of agricultural and traditional share of this group fell by 2.5 percentage goods decreased by 17.4 percent.
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