Conference Report Europe’s Strategic Choices Building Prosperity and Security 5–7 November 2015, Ritz Carlton, Berlin The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the speaker(s) and participants, and do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s)/speaker(s) and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication or details of the event. Where this document refers to or reports statements made by speakers at an event, every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions. The published text of speeches and presentations may differ from delivery. © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2016. 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE T +44 (0)20 7957 5700 F +44 (0)20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Patron: Her Majesty The Queen Chairman: Stuart Popham QC Director: Dr Robin Niblett Charity Registration Number: 208223 2 Europe’s Strategic Choices CONFERENCE PROGRAMME Thursday 5 November Heinrich Rentmeister, Partner and Managing Director, The Boston Consulting Group 1400–1445 Registration and lunch Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House Welcome 1445–1500 1645–1720 Refreshments Krzysztof Blusz , President , demosEUROPA Professor Dr Joachim Krause, Director, Plenary Session Two | Can Europe Gain Institute for Security Policy, University of Kiel Momentum or Will It Fall Behind? Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House 1720–1835 • Is Europe falling behind its economic Opening remarks competitors? 1500—1515 • Are Europe’s current institutions capable of meeting the economic challenges it faces? Dr Dietmar Woidke , Prime Minister, Federal • Are Europe’s political structures a hindrance State of Brandenburg, Germany to its ability to respond to these challenges? Chair: Professor Dr Joachim Krause , Katinka Barysch , Director of Political Director, Institute for Security Policy, Relations, Allianz SE University of Kiel Dr Markus Kerber , CEO and Director General, Federation of German Industries (BDI) Plenary Session One | Europe’s Role in a Dr Sylvia Schwaag Serger , Executive World of Disorder Director, International Strategy and Networks, 1515–1645 VINNOVA Kristin Schreiber, Director of COSME • How should Europe best respond to Programme and SME Policy, DG Internal heightened instability in and mass migration Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, from its eastern and southern neighbourhoods? European Commission Chair: Dr Daniela Schwarzer , Senior • Can Europe play a global role or will it only Director for Research and Director of the ever be a regional player? Europe Programme, German Marshall Fund of • How should Europe deal with the threats the United States posed by non-state actors? Dr Stefanie Babst, Head, Strategic Analysis Drinks Reception hosted by the British for the Secretary General and Chairman of the Embassy Military Committee, NATO 1900–2000 Bernhard Gerwert, CEO, Airbus Defence and Space Soli Özel , Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow, Robert Bosch Academy, Berlin; Professor of International Relations, Kadir Has University 2 3 Europe’s Strategic Choices Friday 6 November B | Financing European growth • With bank finance scarce and risk averse, 0900–0930 Refreshments what other sources of finance are available, and what is their appetite for investment? The Capital Markets Union promises to shift Break-out Session One • financial intermediation towards capital 0930–1100 markets, thus increasing the availability of A | Coercive diplomacy: deterrence, sanctions risk capital for entrepreneurs. What barriers and defence cooperation are there to implementation of CMU, and how can they be overcome? • Do Russia’s actions demonstrate the need for • At a time of high public debt but low Europe to update its deterrence policies and borrowing costs, what role should defence posture? What forms of deterrence governments play in helping finance growth? would be most effective, particularly when facing ‘hybrid’ threats involving cyber Professor Dr Henrik Enderlein , Professor warfare and proxy forces? At a time of fiscal of Political Economy, Hertie School of restraint, will European countries be willing Governance; Director, Jacques Delors Institut – to increase their defence budgets to Berlin implement them? Christian Staub, Managing Director, Country • What is needed to ensure that Europe is able head of Germany, Switzerland, Austria and to maintain a united front when Eastern Europe, BlackRock Inc contemplating the use of sanctions? How Dr Fabrizio Saccomanni , Vice-President, effective are sanctions at changing Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI); Minister of behaviour? Economy and Finances, Italy (2013–14) Defence cooperation is attractive in theory Chair: Quentin Peel , Mercator Senior Fellow, but difficult to put into practice. How can Europe Programme, Chatham House national concerns about the pooling of resources and the technical difficulties of interoperability be overcome? 1100–1130 Refreshments John B Emerson , United States Ambassador to the Federal Republic of Germany Francesco Giumelli , Assistant Professor, Break-out Session Two Department of International Relations and 1130–1300 International Organization, University of Groningen A | Europe’s energy union: reducing dependency Professor Sten Rynning , Associate and ensuring energy security Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Southern Denmark • Europe’s energy union strategy aims to Steve Williams, Regional Executive, Europe ensure secure, affordable and clean energy. and the Americas, Lockheed Martin How much real progress has been made and International Business Development how much is simply rhetoric? What are the Dr Markus Zoller, CEO Division Defence, principal political obstacles? RUAG Schweiz AG • Is there a pathway to create a shared Chair: Dr Patricia Lewis , Research Director, definition of energy security at the European International Security, Chatham House level? What would this imply for the balance of supply and demand measures? How can energy and climate policy be linked more 3 4 Europe’s Strategic Choices effectively to wider foreign policy goals? Keynote Conversation What role will renewables play in achieving 1400—1500 energy security and climate change goals? To what extent can improving energy efficiency Professor Marek Belka , President, National contribute towards these goals? Bank of Poland Dr Wolfgang Schäuble , Federal Minister of Dr Robert Habeck , Minister of Energy Finance, Germany Transition, Agriculture, Environment and Chair: Quentin Peel , Mercator Senior Fellow, Rural Areas, Federal State of Schleswig- Europe Programme, Chatham House Holstein, Germany Hans ten Berge , Secretary General, EURELECTRIC Break-out Session Three Dr Kirsten Westphal , Senior Associate 1520–1650 Global Issues, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) A | Religious extremism: European domestic Chair: Dr Sabrina Schulz , Head of Berlin responses Office, E3G • What are the current approaches to B | Industrial transformation: productivity and countering extremism, and which are work in the digital age showing the most promise? • As the economy becomes more • To what extent is it important to challenge disaggregated, and the distinction between the Islamist narrative in order to prevent manufacturing and services blurs, how will violent radicalization? this affect productivity and the nature of • What is the correct balance between freedom work? of expression and the protection of group • What infrastructure, both physical and identities against offence? Should financial, will be needed for the digital age? governments strive to foster an identity rooted in common citizenship? • What role can governments play in supporting this shift? Dr Matthew Goodwin , Associate Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House Ulrich Coenen, Head of Digital Jacob Mchangama , Founder, Justitia Transformation, Commerzbank Professor Peter Neumann, Professor of Dr Jan Mischke , Senior Fellow, McKinsey Security Studies, War Studies Department, Global Institute King’s College London; Director, International Dr Michael Osborne , Associate Professor in Centre for the Study of Radicalization and Machine Learning, University of Oxford Political Violence Peter Scherrer , Deputy General Secretary, Chair: Professor Dr Joachim Krause, European Trade Union Confederation Director, Institute for Security Policy, Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham University of Kiel House B | Supporting innovation: risk, regulation and finance in the high-tech and green technology 1300–1400 Lunch sectors • What role should individual European governments play in encouraging innovation? 4 5 Europe’s Strategic Choices • How can these efforts be harmonized towards Moderated Conversation: Break-out simplicity, to provide a common framework Session Findings for research and innovation? 0930–1030 • What are the best mechanisms to leverage government finance to encourage private Professor Dr Joachim Krause, Director, investment into innovative industries? How Institute for Security Policy, University of Kiel can the risk in longer-term projects be Dr Patricia Lewis, Research Director, mitigated? International Security, Chatham House Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House Professor Maria da Graça Carvalho , Dr Sabrina