Bromo, Tengger, Semeru (East Java)
BROMO, TENGGER, SEMERU (EAST JAVA)
BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY, MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS, AND INVESTMENT NEEDS
MARKET ANALYIS AND DEMAND ASSESSMENTS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED TOURISM DESTINATIONS ACROSS INDONESIA
WORLD BANK SELECTION # 1223583 (2016-2017)
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
PREPARED BY:
FOR:
WITH SUPPORT FROM:
This work is a product of external contributions supervised by The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. This publication has been funded by the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the Australian Government through the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Swiss Confederation through the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The views expressed in this publication are the author’s alone and are not necessarily the views of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Australian Government and the Swiss Confederation.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION 1
BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY 4 1. DESTINATION CHARACTERISTICS 5 1.1 GEOGRAPHY 5 1.2 CLIMATE 8 1.3 NATURAL AND/OR CULTURAL RESOURCES 8 2. DESTINATION DEFINITION 12 2.1 KEY ATTRACTIONS 12 2.2 CONCLUSIONS ON DESTINATION DEFINITION 13 3. VISITOR ARRIVAL DEMOGRAPHICS 14 3.1 LEVEL OF CURRENT DEMAND 14 3.2 SEASONALITY OF VISITS 15 3.3 ORIGIN OF THE VISITORS 15 3.4 PURPOSE OF VISIT 16 3.5 LOCATION OF ACCOMMODATION USED AND LENGTH OF STAY 17 3.6 INTEGRATION OF THE DESTINATION IN TOURISM CIRCUITS 18 3.7 AWARENESS AND IMAGE OF THE DESTINATION AMONG INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 19 3.8 TOURISM PROMOTION/DESTINATION MARKETING 21 4. ACCESSIBILITY HIGHLIGHTS 22 4.1 EXISTING MODE OF TRAVEL AND VISITORS’ MOVEMENT 22 4.2 ENTRANCE GATES TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU NATIONAL PARK 22 5. HOTEL & LODGING OPTIONS (AMENITIES) 24 5.1 VOLUME & NUMBER OF ROOMS 24 5.2 HOTEL MARKET TIERS 25 5.3 PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES BY TIER 25 5.4 HOTEL FACILITIES & QUALITY 26 6. SMES: SUPPORTING TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES) 28 6.1 INDEPENDENT FOOD & BEVERAGE 28 6.2 TRAVEL AGENCIES 28 7. INVESTMENT ANALYSIS 30 7.1 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) 30 7.2 DOMESTIC DIRECT INVESTMENT (DDI) 30 7.3 ASSET CLASSES & SCALE (EXISTING & PIPELINE) 31 7.4 KEY PLAYERS/INVESTORS 31 7.5 INVESTMENT SENTIMENT: DOMESTIC & FOREIGN INVESTORS 31 7.6 FINANCE 32
7.7 STEPS TO OPENING A BUSINESS 32 8. SKILLS ASSESSMENT 34 8.1 WHAT SKILLS EXIST? 34 8.2 WHAT ARE THE SKILLS GAPS? 34 8.3 TRAINING SCHOOLS 35
DESTINATION SWOT & VISION 36 9. DESTINATION SWOT 37 9.1 STRENGTHS 37 9.2 WEAKNESSES 37 9.3 OPPORTUNITIES 38 9.4 THREATS 38 10. DESTINATION VISION STATEMENT 39 10.1 UNIQUE SELLING POINTS 39 10.2 PRODUCTS AND ACCOMMODATION TO BE DEVELOPED 39
MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS 41 11. FUTURE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS 42 11.1 QUANTITATIVE APPROACH 42
INVESTMENT NEEDS 44 12. AMENITIES: KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 45 12.1 HOTEL PIPELINE & FACILITIES DEVELOPMENT 45 12.2 FORECAST OF FUTURE ACCOMMODATION NEEDS 45 12.3 OTHER TOURISM FACILITIES 45 13. STAFF REQUIRED & SKILLS NEEDED 47 13.1 ACCOMMODATION STAFF REQUIRED 47 13.2 ADDITIONAL STAFF REQUIRED 47 14. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BASELINE & NEEDS 49 BASELINE 49 14.1 ROAD TRANSPORT 49 14.2 RAILWAY TRANSPORT 54 14.3 AIR TRANSPORT 54 14.4 SEA TRANSPORT 61 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS 62 14.5 MARKET SHARE OF VISITORS 62 14.6 ROAD TRANSPORT NEEDS 62 14.7 RAILWAY TRANSPORT 63 14.8 AIR TRANSPORT NEEDS 64 14.9 SEA TRANSPORT NEEDS 66 15. BASIC CAPACITY INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES) 67
BASELINE 67 15.1 BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES 67 15.2 WATER SUPPLY 67 15.3 WASTEWATER AND SANITATION 68 15.4 DRAINAGE 69 15.5 SOLID WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE 70 15.6 POWER SUPPLY 71 15.7 TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE 72 15.8 SUMMARY OF EXISTING BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE 73 BASIC CAPACITY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS 74 15.9 FORECAST POPULATION & VISITOR ARRIVALS 74 15.10 WATER SUPPLY 75 15.11 WASTEWATER AND SANITATION 78 15.12 DRAINAGE 80 15.13 SOLID WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE 80 15.14 POWER SUPPLY 83 15.15 TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE 85
KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 86 16. WHAT WILL TRIGGER INVESTMENT? 87 16.1 RECOMMENDATIONS ON DESTINATION ENHANCEMENTS 87 16.2 LEGAL & REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT ENHANCEMENTS 87 16.3 SME DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS 88 16.4 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT 89 16.5 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS 90 16.6 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SPATIAL PLANS 90
APPENDIX I: SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED 93
APPENDIX II: AIRPORT RUNWAY CAPACITY ANALYISIS 95
APPENDIX III: ROAD CAPACITY ANALYISIS 2015 96
TABLE OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: LOCATION OF 10 PRIORITY TOURISM DESTINATIONS IN INDONESIA 2 FIGURE 2: MAJOR ATTRACTIONS IN BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU 6 FIGURE 3: LOCATIONS OF MAJOR CITIES SURROUNDING BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU - KOTA MALANG, KOTA PROBOLINGGO AND KOTA PASURUAN 7 FIGURE 4: AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OF MOUNT BROMO 8 FIGURE 5: MAP OF NATURAL, CULTURAL, AND SPECIAL INTEREST TOURIST ATTRACTIONS IN BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU AND SURROUNDING AREAS 9 FIGURE 6: PANORAMIC VIEW OF MT BROMO AND MT BATOK FROM THE EDGE OF "SEA OF SANDS" 9 FIGURE 7: EXAMPLES OF THE FLORA AND FAUNA IN BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU 10 FIGURE 8: POTEN TEMPLE AND TENGGER SAND SEA 11 FIGURE 9: ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU, 2011-2015 14 FIGURE 10: MONTHLY ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU, 2015 15 FIGURE 11: GROWTH IN ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU, 2011-2015 16 FIGURE 12: PLACES ASSOCIATED WITH BROMO IN PACKAGES OFFERED BY INTERVIEWED TOUR OPERATORS AND TRAVEL AGENCIES IN SELECTED INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 18 FIGURE 13: NUMBER OF REVIEWS AND SATISFACTION INDEX ON TRIP ADVISOR FOR THE MOST POPULAR VOLCANOES IN INDONESIA 20 FIGURE 14: DESTINATION REASONS FOR SATISFACTION AND DISSATISFACTION IN USER- GENERATED CONTENT ON TRIP ADVISOR 20 FIGURE 15: DESTINATION REASONS FOR SATISFACTION AND DISSATISFACTION ACCORDING TO TOUR OPERATORS AND TRAVEL AGENTS IN SELECTED MARKETS 21 FIGURE 16: PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU THROUGH RESPECTIVE ENTRANCE GATES, 2014 23 FIGURE 17: BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU TOURISM DESTINATION AND VISITORS’ MOVEMENT 23 FIGURE 18: NUMBER OF HOTELS AND ACCOMMODATIONS IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2011 TO 2015 24 FIGURE 19: NUMBER OF ROOMS IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2011 TO 2015 24 FIGURE 20: NUMBER OF STAR RATED HOTELS BY CATEGORIES, 2015 25 FIGURE 21: NUMBER OF RESTAURANTS IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2015 28 FIGURE 22: NUMBER OF TRAVEL COMPANIES AND TRAVEL AGENCIES IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2015 28 FIGURE 23: REALIZED FDI ON HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS IN EAST JAVA, 2010 TO Q2 2016 30 FIGURE 24: REALISED DDI ON HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS IN EAST JAVA, 2010 TO 2016 Q2 30 FIGURE 25: FORECAST OF VISITOR ARRIVALS TO MOUNT BROMO 2015-2041 42 FIGURE 26: FORECAST OF VISITOR GUEST NIGHTS AND EXPENDITURE IN BROMO TENGGER SEMURU, 2015-2041 43 FIGURE 27: NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL ROOMS REQUIRED 2015-2041 45
FIGURE 28: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL STAFF BY HOTEL CATEGORY 48 FIGURE 29: ROAD CLASS AND CONDITION AT EAST JAVA 49 FIGURE 30: ROAD CLASS AND CONDITION IN EAST JAVA 50 FIGURE 31: ROAD ACCESS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU 51 FIGURE 32: REGIONAL ROAD TRAFFIC TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU 52 FIGURE 33: ROAD ACCESS GAPS TO MAJOR TOURISM DESTINATIONS 52 FIGURE 34: EAST JAVA TOLL ROAD PLAN 53 FIGURE 35: STATUS OF TOLL ROAD PLAN 53 FIGURE 36: AIR TRANSPORT DEMAND 55 FIGURE 37: AIRPORT FACILITIES AT JUANDA AND ABDUL RACHMAN 56 FIGURE 38: JUANDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 57 FIGURE 39: EXISTING GAPS IN AIRPORT FACILITIES AT JUANDA AIRPORT 57 FIGURE 40: ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT 58 FIGURE 41: EXISTING GAPS IN AIRPORT FACILITIES AT ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT 59 FIGURE 42: FUTURE PLAN OF JUANDA AIRPORT 59 FIGURE 43: ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT MASTER PLAN 60 FIGURE 44: NEW TANJUNG TEMBAGA PORT LAYOUT 61 FIGURE 45: NEW TANJUNG TEMBAGA PORT FACILITIES 61 FIGURE 46: JUANDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT – INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS 65 FIGURE 47: ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT – INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS 66 FIGURE 48: BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU TOURISM DESTINATION AND KEY ATTRACTIONS 67 FIGURE 49: EXISTING COVERAGE OF PDAM WATER SUPPLY 68 FIGURE 50: EXISTING COVERAGE OF ADEQUATE SANITATION 69 FIGURE 51: FLOOD DISASTER RISK INDEX MAP 70 FIGURE 52: PROCEDURE OF SOLID WASTE COLLECTION AND DISPOSAL 70 FIGURE 53: EXISTING COVERAGE OF SUSTAINABLE SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT 71 FIGURE 54: POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM IN EAST JAVA 72 FIGURE 55: EXISTING COVERAGE OF POWER SUPPLY NETWORK 72 FIGURE 56: SUMMARY OF EXISTING BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT 73 FIGURE 57: FORECAST OF POPULATION 75 FIGURE 58: FORECAST OF COMMERCIAL ROOMS REQUIRED 75 FIGURE 59: WATER DEMAND PROJECTION (L/S) 76 FIGURE 60: SUMMARY OF WATER DEMAND PROJECTION (L/S) 76 FIGURE 61: ESTIMATED WATER DEMAND RATIO 76 FIGURE 62: WATER CONSUMPTION RATE 77 FIGURE 63: SEWAGE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/S)* 78 FIGURE 64: SUMMARY OF SEWAGE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/S) 79 FIGURE 65: ESTIMATED SEWAGE GENERATION RATIO 79 FIGURE 66: SOLID WASTE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/DAY) 80 FIGURE 67: SUMMARY OF SEWAGE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/DAY) 81 FIGURE 68: ESTIMATED SOLID WASTE GENERATION RATIO 81 FIGURE 69: RATE OF SOLID WASTE GENERATION 81 FIGURE 70: POWER DEMAND PROJECTION (MWH) 83 FIGURE 71: SUMMARY OF POWER DEMAND PROJECTION (MWH) 83 FIGURE 72: ESTIMATED POWER DEMAND RATIO 83
FIGURE 73: POWER CONSUMPTION RATE 84 FIGURE 74: GAPS IN SPATIAL PLANNING FRAMEWORK, BROMO TENGGER SMERU 92 BROMO, TENGGER, SEMERU: MARKET ANALYSIS AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT: SELECTION # 1223583
INTRODUCTION
The Government of Indonesia in the National Medium-Term Development Plan (Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional, RPJMN) 2015 to 2019, has set a number of objectives to increase the role of tourism in the Indonesian economy. Between 2015 and 2019, its goals together with the Ministry of Tourism’s goals are to increase:
• international visitors from 9 million to 20 million; • domestic visits from 250 million to 275 million; • the tourism contribution to GDP from 4 percent to 8 percent; • tourism foreign exchange revenues from IDR120 trillion to IDR240 trillion; • Indonesia’s Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index ranking from 70th to 30th place; and • tourism sector employment from 11 million to 13 million workers.
To achieve these goals President Joko Widodo urged his cabinet to accelerate the development of 10 priority tourism destinations (Figure 1):
• Borobudur (Jogjakarta, Solo, Semarang: Central Java) • Lake Toba (North Sumatra) • Mandalika (Lombok) • Bromo, Tengger, Semeru (East Java) • Labuan Bajo (Flores) • Wakatobi (South East Sulawesi) • Pulau Seribu / Kota Tua (DKI Jakarta) • Morotai (North Maluku) • Tanjung Lesung (Banten) • Tanjung Kelayang (Bangka Belitung)
The 3 destinations in bold are considered high priority destinations with additional effort being expended to encourage and develop tourism.
The World Bank has been requested by the Government of Indonesia to support, through financing, advisory support, and analytics, the Government’s efforts to accelerate tourism development in the 10 priority destinations. As part of this support, in August 2016 the World Bank engaged Horwath HTL (HHTL) and Surbana Jurong to conduct a market analysis and demand assessment for the 10 priority destinations, with a focus on Lake Toba, Lombok and Borobudur.
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FIGURE 1: LOCATION OF 10 PRIORITY TOURISM DESTINATIONS IN INDONESIA
Source: Google Maps, Surbana Jurong
The key objective of the Assessment is to assist the Government of Indonesia in identifying and prioritizing infrastructure, skill and SME development, planning and other tourism- related expenditures to accelerate the development of the 10 priority tourism destinations. The scope comprises of (1) market demand and supply analysis, plus investment analysis and (2) demand assessment (projections) and investment needs (including infrastructure). The findings are expected to inform the government’s integrated tourism master plans for these destinations.
To this end, the following key tasks were undertaken:
Task 1: Understanding governmental decentralization & its effect on decision making plus preliminary information gathering. Task 2: Collection and analysis of the government’s statistical data. Task 3: Survey of international and domestic tourism stakeholders for collection of public and private sector information. Task 4: Survey of tour-operators in selected key markets. Task 5: Secondary research on tourism supply and demand. Task 6: Analysis of the image of Indonesia and the 10 priority destinations. Task 7: Future market demand analysis. Task 8: Investment and infrastructure needs assessment. Task 9: SMEs and skills assessment and needs.
Appendix I contains a list of interviews undertaken with both the public and private sectors to gather primary research that was used to supplement secondary research. The list includes the number of interviews, the organization (where appropriate), the location and the dates.
This Report is part of a series of reports:
• report for Indonesia, country level;
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• reports for the 3 high priority destinations (Lombok, Borobudur, Lake Toba); and,
• reports for the 7 other priority destinations (Bromo/Tengger/Semeru, Labuan Bajo/Komodo National Park, Wakatobi, Pulau Seribu/Kota Tua, Morotai, Tanjung Lesung and Tanjung Kelayang). These reports only provide rough estimates and are more basic that the ones for the 3 high priority destinations. Good practice in terms of forecasting could not always be applied, and instead, for instance, assumptions based on supply pipeline and constraints were used.
Assessment of the Destination and Key Tourism Areas
The 3As terminology (Attraction, Amenities and Accessibility) can help explain how the supply and demand analysis and needs assessment was carried out for the destination with respect to the destination boundary and the key tourism areas.
• Attractions: attractions specifically focussed on engaging and drawing visitors to the destination. The destination is defined by its attractions and their ability to draw visitors. Within the destination boundary, (existing and future) clusters of attractions with potential for tourism development and propensity to generate overnight stays and revenue and/or (existing and future) key accommodation areas are identified and henceforth called “key tourism areas”.
• Accessibility: methods of reaching the destination via the main gateways (external accessibility) plus transport links between gateways, attractions and key accommodation areas all of which support the destination (internal accessibility). For external accessibility, the focus is on the gateway hubs (such as airports and ports). For internal accessibility, the Report assesses the transport infrastructure; the existing, the gaps and the required transportation network that facilitates accessibility within the destination.
• Amenities: support the destination and the attractions such as hotels, restaurants and entertainment facilities together with basic capacity infrastructure. Within the destination boundary, and generally within the key tourism areas, the Report assesses:
- the existing basic infrastructure capacity (water supply, power supply, telecommunication, waste water and waste management, etc.);
- identifies any basic infrastructure capacity gaps;
- analyses demand and supply of existing attractions and amenities;
- provides projections for future attractions and amenities; and provides an assessment of infrastructure needs of the destination to ensure success of the attraction and amenities. In some cases, when amenities within the destination boundary have a direct effect on the attractiveness of the key tourism areas, the scope of the baseline and investment needs of basic capacity infrastructure is conducted beyond the key tourism areas.
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BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY
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1. DESTINATION CHARACTERISTICS
The following section provides an assessment of the existing and potential attractions within the destination.
1.1 GEOGRAPHY Located in East Java, the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru destination consists of the Bromo- Tengger-Semeru National Park and its surrounding support area. It is part of 4 kabupaten: Lumajang, Malang, Pasuruan, and Probolinggo.1 The accommodations and tourism resources in these 4 kabupaten largely support the tourist activities in Bromo-Tengger-Semeru. Therefore, analysis and statistics regarding these 4 kabupaten will be included in the following discussions so as to reveal the potential of the destination. Discussion regarding the 3 major cities (kota) adjacent the 4 kabupaten—namely Kota Malang, Kota Pasuruan, and Kota Probolinggo—may also be made in the report as these cities are the main entry points to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru.
Bromo-Tengger-Semeru is volcanic highland of approximately 40 kilometers north-south and 20-30 kilometers east-west, covering an area of 50,276 hectares and an altitudinal range of 1,000 to 3,676 meters.
Within the immense Tengger Caldera lie five volcanoes: Mount Bromo (2,329 meters), Mount Batok (2,470 meters), Mount Kursi (2,581 meters), Mount Watangan (2,661 meters), and Mount Widodaren (2,650 meters). Although Mount Bromo is not the highest peak, it is the most well-known due to its easier accessibility and constant activity. It is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. Its top was destroyed after an eruption, leaving a disproportionately large crater of diameter of approximately 600 meters. The name Bromo is derived from the Javanese pronunciation of Brahma, the Hindu creator god. The volcanoes are surrounded by the Tengger Sand Sea (a protected nature reserve since 1919) which is a large area of sand, and all of the volcanoes except for Mount Batok are still active. In addition, the park is also the location of Java’s highest mountain, Mount Semeru (3,676 meters). It has been in a constant state of activity since 2010.
The map below (Figure 2) displays the major attractions in Bromo-Tengger-Semeru which include:
• Mount Bromo
• Mount Batok
• Mount Pananjakan (2,770m - Viewpoint 1): It is a mountaintop viewpoint located north of the caldera which is accessible by paved road from Tosari and hence popular with jeeps and even tour buses.
1 In Indonesia, subnational governance includes four levels: (1) province/provinsi, (2) city/kota and regency/kabupaten, (3) sub- district/kecamatan or district/distrik, and (4) urban community/kelurahan or village/desa.
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• Cemoro Lawang (Viewpoint 2): It is an alternative viewpoint to have a stunning view of the caldera without the crowds.
• Savana Hill (Whispering Sand): Whispering sand in Mount Bromo is a massive area of smooth sand that makes a noise like whispering and Savana Hill is a piece of green grassland surrounded by a high mountain. They are mostly visited by tourists after enjoying the sunrise and seeing the crater.
• Mount Semeru (for hiking).
FIGURE 2: MAJOR ATTRACTIONS IN BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU
Source: Horwath HTL and Google Map
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FIGURE 3: LOCATIONS OF MAJOR CITIES SURROUNDING BROMO-TENGGER- SEMERU - KOTA MALANG, KOTA PROBOLINGGO AND KOTA PASURUAN
Source: https://allindonesiatravel.com/
The three major entry points (further discussion on accessibility is in Chapter 4 below) to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru are Kota Malang, Kota Probolinggo and Kota Pasuruan. Some visitors will spend one to two nights in these areas whilst visiting the destination. There are three major routes into the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park:
• The Probolinggo (Ngadisari) Route: This is the most common route used to access the park as it is the most straightforward. About 6 kilometers west of Probolinggo on the main coastal highway, turn south at the village of Ketapang. From there the road snakes up for 40 kilometers through Sukapura to Ngadisari and finally Cemoro Lawang on the edge of the caldera. Tourists taking this route usually lodge in Sukapura or Cemoro Lawang (Kab. Probolinggo).
• The Malang (Tumpang) Route: Tourists usually take a microbus from Arjosari bus station in Malang to Tumpang and then a 4x4 vehicle or a heavy truck from Tumpang to Ngadas. The route from Ngadas on to the caldera is interesting because it transverses the Sea of Sand and directly passes Mount Bromo. Tourists taking the Tumpang route tend to lodge at Ngadas (Kab. Malang) or Ranupani (Kab. Lumajang).
• The Pasuruan (Tosari) Route: From Pasuruan on the main north coast road between Surabaya and Probolinggo, take the road 45 kilometers south to Tosari via Pasrepan. There are irregular buses or tourists can hire a car. From Tosari to Wonokitri it is another 3 kilometers. From Wonokotri up to Bromo it is a really nice route, tourists can either walk or hire a 4 times 4 vehicle. Accommodations in Tosari or Wonokitri (both Kab. Pasuruan) are usually used by tourists taking the Tosari route.
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1.2 CLIMATE Year-round temperatures are refreshingly cool during the day but cold at night as temperatures near the peak can drop to zero in the dry season and are rarely above 5°C during the wet season. Average temperatures in the park are between 18°C and 29°C (Figure 4).
Most precipitation falls during the wet season between November and March. During periods of heavy rain in January and February, most parts of the park are inaccessible due to flooding. Landslides are also an issue at these times. The best time to visit Bromo is during the dry season which spans from May to September, when days are hot, dry, and sunny. Figure 4 shows average yearly temperatures and precipitation.
FIGURE 4: AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OF MOUNT BROMO
Source: www.meteoblue.com (Note: Calculated values are valid for 671m. Expected temperature difference with the peak of the mountain is around 10 degrees Celsius.)
1.3 NATURAL AND/OR CULTURAL RESOURCES The Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park is named after its two mountains, Mount Semeru and Mount Bromo and the Tengger people who inhabit the area. It is one of the aspirations to develop Bromo-Tengger-Semeru into an “International Geo-eco cultural Park” for its abundance and precious geological, ecological and cultural resources.
1.3.1 NATURAL RESOURCES - GEOLOGICAL RESOURCES The volcanic complexity of Tengger forms a condition where a new caldera of volcano forms inside a larger and more ancient caldera. There are five volcanoes inside the Tengger Caldera, as mentioned. Mount Bromo is easily recognized as the entire top has been blown off and the crater inside constantly belches white sulphurous smoke. Mount Batok, just next to Mount Bromo, is the only peak that is no longer active and is covered in casuarinas trees. Mount Widodaren, located beside Mount Batok, contains the cave Widodaren, which is considered sacred by local people.
The five volcanoes within the caldera are surrounded by a vast area of sand called the Tengger Sand Sea. A view of the mountains in the caldera is shown in Figure 6.
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Other mountains around the Tengger Caldera are: Mount Pananjakan (2,770 meters) Mount Cemoro Lawang (2,227 meters), Mount Lingker (2,278 meters), Mount Pundak Lembu (2,635 meters), etc. The peak of Mount Pananjakan is the most popular place to watch the entire volcanic complex of Tengger.
Figure 5 shows the locations of tourist sites in the areas surrounding the destination.
FIGURE 5: MAP OF NATURAL, CULTURAL, AND SPECIAL INTEREST TOURIST ATTRACTIONS IN BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU AND SURROUNDING AREAS
Source: Ministry of Tourism, Bromo-Tengger-Semeru Development Plan
Further south of the national park, there is another volcanic complex called the Semeru Group. This area contains the highest peak of Java, the Mount Semeru (3,676 meters). Other mountains within this area are Mount Lanang (2,313 meters), Mount Ayek-Ayek (2,819 meters), Mount Kepolo (3,035 meters), and Mount Malang (2,401 meters). The Semeru forest area has many rivers that are former lava lines from Mount Semeru. The Semeru group is considered to be very active, spreading lava, ash, and hot clouds to the surrounding areas. The lower area is surrounded by fertile rice fields.
FIGURE 6: PANORAMIC VIEW OF MT BROMO AND MT BATOK FROM THE EDGE OF "SEA OF SANDS"
Source: Online Photo Stock
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1.3.2 NATURAL RESOURCES - ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES The vegetation in the forested areas of the National Park can be broadly classified into three groups: sub-montane vegetation below 1,500 meters, montane vegetation from 1,500 to 2,400 meters, and sub-alpine vegetation above 2,400 meters. Towards the peak of Mount Semeru, extreme conditions prevent any vegetation from growing. On the lower altitude slopes, tropical rainforest dominates with sub-montane species, such as figs and orchids. Ascending the mountain, plant life is reduced, with only hardier montane species and edelweiss dominating the ecosystem up into the sub-alpine zone. In total, there are 1,025 reported species of flora, of which 226 are orchids and 260 are medicinal and ornamental plants.
On the other hand, the unpredictable volcanic activity, together with challenging high-altitude conditions, limits the faunal species within the park. Most notably, however, are a large number of bird species which either reside in or migrate through the area. Down in the valleys, a few leopard cats are present, though rarely seen. The Java mouse deer, muntjac deer, marbled cat, and wild pig are amongst the mammals more likely to be glimpsed by casual visitors. An inventory of fauna has recorded 158 species, consisting of 22 mammal species (of which 15 are protected), 130 bird species (27 protected), and six species of reptiles. Figure 7 shows examples of these fauna and flora which can be found in the Bromo- Tengger-Semeru area and are protected by laws.
Moreover, the Tengger Sand Sea is a special ecosystem. The area is covered in volcanic sedimentation of sand from Mount Bromo’s activities with the resulting area believed to be the only known desert-like area in Indonesia. The Tengger Sand Sea has been protected since 1919.
FIGURE 7: EXAMPLES OF THE FLORA AND FAUNA IN BROMO-TENGGER- SEMERU
Source: Online Photo Stock (From left to right: Macodes petola hat, Liparis rhodocila, Manis javanita)
1.3.3 CULTURAL RESOURCES – TENGGERESE AND HINDUISM The area inside and around Bromo-Tengger-Semeru is inhabited by the Tengger people, one of the few significant Hindu communities remaining on the island of Java. The local religion is a remnant from the Majapahit era and therefore is quite similar to that of Bali, but with more animist elements. The Tengger people were driven into the hills after the mass arrival of Muslim Madurese who came to work in Dutch coffee plantations in the 19th century.
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The Tenggerese still live in the park and its environs, numbering more than 500,000, and practice their animist form of Hinduism. This is most visible at the Poten Temple. The temple holds the annual Hindu festival of Yadnya Kasada (12th month in the Tenggerese calendar) which lasts for about one month. On the fourteenth day, the Tenggerese congregate at the Poten Temple to ask for blessings from Ida Sang Hyang Widi Wasa and the God of Mahameru (Mount Semeru). Then the crowd proceeds along the crater edges of Mount Bromo where offerings (fruit, rice, vegetables, flowers, and sacrifices of livestock) are thrown into the crater. Figure 8 shows the temple.
FIGURE 8: POTEN TEMPLE AND TENGGER SAND SEA
Source: Online photo stock
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2. DESTINATION DEFINITION
2.1 KEY ATTRACTIONS There are few key leisure attractions to date, with the following ones being the highlights.
2.1.1 BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU NATIONAL PARK The Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park was one of the first Indonesian national parks to be officially gazetted in 1982, but its status was only ratified in 1994. Before the park was officially ratified, some land around the protected area had been managed by the state forestry company, Perum Perhutani, which permitted certain uses by local people. Most of its territory is comprised of land which had protected status as a nature reserve or other protected area before the national park was declared. One of the principal reasons the national park was established was the spectacular scenery of Mount Bromo and Mount Semeru and their surroundings. Other important reasons were for watershed protection and as a buffer zone for volcanic eruptions.
2.1.2 MOUNT BROMO As Mount Bromo is an active volcano, its volcanic activity is a vital determinant of the tourist activities in the surrounding areas. According to the Bromo Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Centre, Mount Bromo has a five-year cycle in eruptions that last for months. The most destructive volcanic eruptions in recent years happened in late 2010-early 2011 and late 2015.
The 2010/2011 Eruptions: In late 2010 and early 2011, volcanic ash and incandescent material was thrown up with a heavy rain of ejected volcanic material falling around the crater. The impact from the eruptions in December 2010 and January 2011 disrupted normal activities and the local economy. The potential for long term environmental damage and health problems amongst the residents in the areas surrounding Mount Bromo was paramount at that time. Due to high seasonal rainfall in January 2011, the potential for cold lava and lava flow was elevated due to the deposits of volcanic ash, sand and other ejected material that had built up. Activity was dominated by tremor vibration, eruption of ash plumes and ejection of incandescent material. During the worst period of the eruptive activities, operational caution was recommended for flights into and out of Juanda International Airport in Surabaya. Further eruptions even led to the cancellation of some international flights in Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali from airlines, including Singapore Airlines, Jetstar-ValueAir, Air France-KLM, Virgin Blue and Cathay Pacific, when concerns were raised regarding a volcanic ash plume, reported to be drifting eastward toward the air corridors used to access the Ngurah Rai International Airport. The park was reopened to visitors in April 2011. The 2015 Eruptions: Mount Bromo had shown signs of increasing volcanic activity in early November 2015, when the amount of smoke coming out of the crater intensified. By late November, Mount Bromo began to eject ash into the air. Indonesian Volcano Monitoring Bureau issued a warning that forbade people from climbing Mount Bromo. Later the warning was extended to a 1-kilometremeter exclusion zone, and eventually into a wider range which virtually barred visitors from coming down to the caldera floor. The spread of volcanic
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materials from Mount Bromo in East Java had disrupted flights between Surabaya and Jember, another city in East Java. Until mid-2016, the alert status of Mount Bromo had remained at Level 2 and tourists were warned not to move within a 1-kilometer radius of the crater. Despite the relatively high level of volcanic activity at Mount Bromo, which emitted thick greyish smoke, the destination was reportedly still safe for tourists.
2.1.3 EVENTS In recent years, there are some attractive events being organized in the area, such as Jazz Gunung, which is a popular annual music event held on the outdoor stage at Java Banana Bromo Lodge (since 2009). It is a national Jazz music festival held annually between June and August, attracting more than 2,000 people to the area. There are also international sports events like the annual Bromo Marathon (since 2013), which attracted over 1,200 participants from over 31 countries in 2016.
2.2 CONCLUSIONS ON DESTINATION DEFINITION Bromo-Tengger-Semeru is an excellent mountain destination with stunning views and different levels of hiking treks. In addition to the precious geological and ecological resources, the cultural values of the native Tengger people and Hinduism can also be potentially integrated into tourist activities. However, the current accessibility issues (rough road conditions and long travelling time), insufficient variety of accommodation facilities, and overcrowding of the popular spots inside the National Park, limit the growth potential of the destination. The problems above also constrain the length of stay and limit tourists’ activities mainly to climbing the mountain, and seeing the sunrise and crater. Unexpected natural disasters such as the recent volcanic eruptions in late 2015 also halted tourist activities for the whole region and will continue to play a role in the development of the destination.
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3. VISITOR ARRIVAL DEMOGRAPHICS
This chapter presents a high-level demand assessment of Bromo-Tengger-Semeru based on a thorough review of available data, reports and analysis on the tourism sector for Indonesia, and interviews with tour-operators and local stakeholders (see Appendix I).
3.1 LEVEL OF CURRENT DEMAND The indicator used to measure visitation to the destination is the number of entry tickets recorded by the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park at its 5 main gates.
Arrivals to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru rose from 125,471 in 2011 to 570,140 in 2014 before falling to 474,011 in 2015 (Figure 9). A series of destructive volcanic eruptions from late 2010 to early 2011 disrupted tourist arrivals for a prolonged period in 2011. Arrivals then recovered and more than doubled between 2011 and 2012. In 2013-2014, arrivals saw a significant surge of 100% compared to 2012. This growth was likely due to:
• The organization of attractive events mentioned earlier such as Jazz Gunung starting from 2009, and Bromo Marathon beginning from 2013;
• A popular Indonesian movie featured Mount Semeru as the background of the story. After the movie was released in late 2012, many domestic tourists, especially youth, visited Bromo-Tengger-Semeru.
However, arrivals subsequently declined from 2014 to 2015. The primary reason for this is the eruption in late 2015; other reasons include overcrowding of popular locations in the park such as lookouts, and a 300% ticket price increase in May 2014. All these led to a fall in arrivals of 17 percent to 474,011 in 2015.
FIGURE 9: ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU, 2011-2015
570,145 600,000 551,644
500,000 474,011
400,000
300,000 275,874
200,000 125,471 100,000
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Taman Nasional Bromo-Tengger-Semeru
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3.2 SEASONALITY OF VISITS The peak time of the year to visit Bromo-Tengger-Semeru is during the dry season from May to August when the climate is favorable for hiking. Also, during this period, visitation is higher as there are school holidays, the Hindu festival of Yadnya Kasada (12th month in the Tenggerese calendar), the August 17 Independence Day (as it is popular to hike Mount Semeru on Independence Day), and the Jazz Gunung event. Another popular time to visit Bromo is during Christmas and New Year. The low season falls in rainy months from February to April. Figure 10 shows monthly arrivals in 2015. Bromo-Tengger-Semeru is more crowded during weekends, especially long weekends.
FIGURE 10: MONTHLY ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU, 2015
90,000 78,976 80,000
70,000 61,382 60,598 60,000 51,681 51,968 50,000 36,239 40,000 32,839 30,000 24,561 24,022 19,700 20,000 17,046 14,999
10,000
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Taman Nasional Bromo-Tengger-Semeru
According to interviewed hoteliers, seasonal patterns for accommodation demand close to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru are similar to the demand for the National Park. Demand is also higher during weekends.
3.3 ORIGIN OF THE VISITORS International visitors to the National Park represented around 10% of total arrivals until 2014. International arrivals increased in the period 2011 to 2013, from 22,380 to 32,898. However, following a ticket fee increase in May 2014 from IDR 72,500 to IDR 217,500 (and IDR 317,500 on weekends and public holidays) international arrivals dropped in 2014 and 2015. Comparing international monthly arrivals in June 2013 (3,072) with the same month in 2014 (1,958, a drop of 36%) and 2015 (1,475, a drop of 25%), suggest a potential negative impact of the ticket fee increase on arrivals.
Domestic arrivals saw similar patterns: growth rates slowed in 2014 and were negative in 2015 (-17%). The ticket price for domestic travelers also rose from IDR 10,000 to IDR 27,000, which, together with the impact of the volcanic eruption in late 2015, may have affected visitor numbers.
International visitors now account for less than 5% of total arrivals to Bromo-Tengger- Semeru National Park, as seen in Figure 11.
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FIGURE 11: GROWTH IN ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU, 2011-2015 Growth Growth Growth rate of Foreign Domestic rate of Total rate of Year internation arrivals domestic total al visitor arrivals arrivals arrivals arrivals arrivals 2011 22,380 -- 103,091 -- 125,471 -- 2012 26,297 18% 249,577 142% 275,874 120% 2013 32,898 25% 518,746 108% 551,644 100% 2014 23,712 -28% 546,433 5% 570,145 3% 2015 17,016 -28% 456,995 -16% 474,011 -17% Source: Taman Nasional Bromo-Tengger-Semeru
Domestic visitor profile (more than 95% of total visitors)
• According to hoteliers and local travel agencies, the origin of most domestic visitors is Jakarta and East Java (mainly Surabaya).
• They are mostly aged between 20 and 40 years old.
• Low-to-middle class students and professionals
International visitor profile (less than 5% of total visitors)
• International tourists are generally between 20 and 50 years old.
• They usually prefer to stay in hotels instead of guesthouses for the better facilities and services.
• The top origin countries are European, including France, the Netherlands, and Belgium.
• Singaporean and Malaysian guests account for 15% of total international guests.
3.4 PURPOSE OF VISIT Leisure demand • Leisure demand accounts for over 80 percent of the total room night demand of hotels, and almost 100 percent in guesthouses close to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru as the majority of tourists prefer to stay close to the National Park for convenience.
• Most leisure tourists travel in small groups of 4 to 8 people or as couples.
• The average length of stay of these leisure guests is around one day. The usual travelling pattern is to arrive a day earlier and wake up at around 3 am to hike up a viewpoint for the sunrise. After sunrise, tourists would generally pay a visit to Mount Bromo. There are no other tourist spots or activities in the National Park to encourage leisure tourists to stay longer.
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Meetings, Incentives, Conventions, and Exhibitions (MICE) demand
• MICE demand from private companies is not strong near the National Park, mainly due to the difficulties in group transportation and a lack of larger hotels that can accommodate large groups of guests. At the moment, only small MICE groups, averaging 50 guests, stay in hotels near the National Park for incentive trips, team building, or some other events (such as product launches or photo shoots). The average length of stay of this group is around 2 days.
• There used to be strong government MICE demand—as high as 70% of the total—in star-rated hotels in Malang. However, recent restrictions on government meeting budgets have led to a decline in government MICE demand. Most hotels in Malang are now switching their focus to target corporate and leisure guests.
Business demand
• Business demand only exists in hotels in Malang. However, as Malang is close to Bromo- Tengger-Semeru (less than a two-hour drive), some business visitors do visit the National Park after their business trip in Malang.
3.5 LOCATION OF ACCOMMODATION USED AND LENGTH OF STAY The visit at the Bromo-Tennger-Semeru National Park is a day trip that can start2 :
• from their homes (for local visitors);
• from an accommodation located near the park; or
• from accommodation located far from the park.
Local travels agents declared that visitors generally choose accommodation in more distant cities due to their better value-for-money facilities (there is no accommodation in the National Park area):
• Malang: great place for families with better value hotels.
• Probolinggo: one of the main entry gateways to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park.
• Yogyakarta: although the city is further from Bromo than Malang, the trip to Bromo is cheaper from Yogyakarta than from Malang.
As a result, the destination is often offered as a one-day trip. However, data from qualitative sources (interviews with local hoteliers and analysis of packages offered by tour operators) suggest that the average length of stay is typically 1 night.
2 The existing statistical data do not allow to determine the relative proportion of day trippers and visitors who spend at least one night near the Bromo Tengger Semerru National Park.
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It was therefore considered that a visit corresponds to one night, but based on available data, it was not possible to determine (1) the type of accommodation chosen or (2) the location of overnight stay.
3.6 INTEGRATION OF THE DESTINATION IN TOURISM CIRCUITS Interviewed international tour operators usually offer the destination as part of a circuit. The packages analyzed usually associate the destination with other destinations in Java, or, less frequently, with Bali and Sumatra. Figure 12 shows the other destinations often packaged with Bromo.
For long-haul markets, Bromo is always offered as part of longer visits (more than 2 weeks), while in nearby markets such as Malaysia and Singapore, tour operators and travel agents usually offer Bromo as a standalone destination in a shorter stay in Indonesia.
FIGURE 12: PLACES ASSOCIATED WITH BROMO IN PACKAGES OFFERED BY INTERVIEWED TOUR OPERATORS AND TRAVEL AGENCIES IN SELECTED INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Country Sample itineraries
Australia Example 1: Jakarta, Pangdangaran, Yogyakarta, Mt Bromo, Selioliman Nature Reserve, Kalabaru Pemuturan, Ubud (14D.) Example 2: Bangkok, Khao Sok, Homestay, Ao Nang, Penang, Kuala Lumpur, Melaka, Singapore, Jakarta, Pangandaran, Yogyakarta, Seloliman, Mt Bromo, Kalibaru, Pemuteran, Ubud (28D.) Example 3: Jakarta, Pangandaran, Yogyakarta, Seloliman, Mt Bromo, Kalibaru, Pemuteran, Ubud, Sideman, Mt Batur, Lovina, Bedugul, Sanur (22D.) China Not commercialized France Example 1: Java (Jombang + Mt Bromo + Jogjakarta), Sumatra (around Lake Toba: Medan + Brastagi + Samosir) (17D.) Example 2: Bromo + Jombang + Jogjakarta (12D → 16D.) Example 3: Java (Jombang + Mt Bromo + Jogjakarta) (12D.) Germany Example 1: Jakarta, Bandung, Tangkuban Perahu, Sariater, Bandung, Jogjakarta, Borobudur, Jombang, Malang, Bromo, Kalibaru, Bali, Ubud, Mengwi; Bedugul, Lovina, Candidasa, Sanur (15D.) Example 2: Yogyakarta, Prambanan, Merapi, Borobudur, Mount Bromo (22D.) Japan Not commercialized Malaysia No circuits identified Singapore No circuits identified UK Example 1: Borobudur, Mount Kelud, Malang, Mount Bromo, Ubud, Munduk, Seminyak (13D.) Source: Analysis of packages offered by tour operators interviewed by Horwath HTL (36 tour operators)
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3.7 AWARENESS AND IMAGE OF THE DESTINATION AMONG INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Bromo benefits from a high awareness among international tourism professionals. Of the 36 tour operators and travel agents interviewed in this study, 23 had heard about Bromo- Tengger-Semeru (0/63 in China, 3/3 in France, 4/4 in Germany, 0/5 in Japan, 4/4 in Malaysia, 7/7 in Singapore, 4/5 in UK, 1/2 in Australia). The conclusion may be drawn from this sample that Bromo is fairly well-known by tour operators interviewed for the study, except in Japan and China.
Only 16 out of the interviewed operators offered packages including Bromo: 0/6 in China, 2/3 in France, 2/4 in Malaysia, 3/5 in UK, 6/7 in Singapore, 3/4 in Germany, 0/5 in Japan, 1/2 in Australia.
According to the tour-operators, Bromo is difficult to sell due to its accessibility and the fact that it is aimed primarily at visitors in good physical condition. As a result, the destination is suited to a specific niche market: hiking.
HIGH PRESENCE ON THE INTERNET SHOWS HIGH AWARENESS OF THE DESTINATION AMONG THE GENERAL PUBLIC AT INTERNATIONAL LEVEL
Numerous opinions about Bromo as a tourism destination may be found in English on user- generated content websites, which shows the awareness of the destination among the general public. For instance, Mount Bromo has 1,557 reviews on Trip Advisor (consulted in of October 2016, all languages), while Mount Semeru only has 187 reviews. As shown in Figure 13 below, in terms of total number of reviews, Mount Bromo has more than Mount Ijen, which is presented by certain tour operators interviewed as easier to access due to its proximity to Bali.
These results tend to show that Bromo as a tourism destination has good awareness among the general public. Moreover, the good level of satisfaction is comparable with other famous volcanos that are frequently visited in Indonesia. Only Ijen Crater, which is often visited just after Bromo by tourists heading to Bali, has a higher satisfaction index, as fewer people complain about over-crowded trails there.
3 Number of tour operators interviewed for the study.
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FIGURE 13: NUMBER OF REVIEWS AND SATISFACTION INDEX ON TRIP ADVISOR FOR THE MOST POPULAR VOLCANOES IN INDONESIA
2500 1.80 1.60 2000 1.40 1.20 1500 1.00 0.80 1000 0.60 500 0.40 0.20 0 0.00 Mount Ijen Crater Mount Merapi Mount Mount Mount Bromo Batur Volcano Rinjani Agung Kelimitu
Reviews Satisfaction index
Source: Analysis of TripAdvisor Website by Horwath HTL in all available languages, 27/10/2016.
3.7.1 BROMO: VISITOR PERCEPTIONS According to both local and international stakeholders interviewed for this study, and consistent with the number of reviews on Trip Advisor, the most popular tourism product at Bromo is the sunrise tour. The two “must see” sites of the destination are Pananjankan viewpoint, especially at sunrise, and Mount Bromo itself. Others popular sites are: Teletubbies Hills, Pasir Berbisik, Kampung Tengger (Tengger Village), and Semeru Mountain.
Besides adventurous activities, which are easily linked with Bromo volcano, cultural and religious activities are also very often cited by the operators and Trip Advisor users alike, such as Hindu Tengger culture.
Though the majority of reviews on Trip Advisor are positive, the poor reviews that have been written stress transportation conditions and security issues.
FIGURE 14: DESTINATION REASONS FOR SATISFACTION AND DISSATISFACTION IN USER-GENERATED CONTENT ON TRIP ADVISOR Reasons for satisfaction Reasons for dissatisfaction Landscapes Saturation during high season Sightseeing Transportation Security Source: Analysis of TripAdvisor Website by Horwath HTL in all available languages, 27/10/2016. www.tripadvisor.fr/Attraction_Review- g303956-d446941-Reviews-Mount_Bromo-Tengger_Caldera_East_Java_Java.html
International tour operators and travel agencies stress the same areas of satisfaction and dissatisfaction, though they add several reasons for dissatisfaction: the cost of the visit and the quality/price ratio of hotels. This is shown in Figure 15.
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FIGURE 15: DESTINATION REASONS FOR SATISFACTION AND DISSATISFACTION ACCORDING TO TOUR OPERATORS AND TRAVEL AGENTS IN SELECTED MARKETS Country Reasons for satisfaction Reasons for dissatisfaction
Natural landscapes Accommodations (prices and Australia Active Volcano standards). Culture China Unaware of the destination Unaware of the destination Security (seismic activity) Need better guidance France Volcano Hotels Isolated in Java National Park Natural spectacle Quality of accommodation Germany Volcanoes
Sand desert Trekking Japan Unaware of the destination Unaware of the destination Expensive as a package Connectivity issues Malaysia Value Security Logistics Infrastructures Safety Nature Singapore Lack of infrastructure Volcanoes Accommodations Seeing UK Infrastructures Climbing Sightseeing Traffic between destination Domestic Natural attractions Cleanliness issue Cultural value of Tengger Area Crowded place Source: Qualitative interviews with tour operators in selected markets, and analysis of touristic guides, Horwath HTL.
3.8 TOURISM PROMOTION/DESTINATION MARKETING Destination marketing and promotion is mainly done through the Tourism Authority of East Java. Although Bromo-Tengger-Semeru encompasses parts of 4 kabupaten, they have not put much effort into marketing the destination. One of the reasons explained by the local Tourism Authority of Malang for this is that Mount Bromo is already well-known to both domestic and international tourists. Therefore, their focus is not to further promote the destination, but to develop and market their locality as the gateway to the National Park and as its own standalone destination.
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4. ACCESSIBILITY HIGHLIGHTS
Roads and airways represent transport modes of access to Bromo for domestic and foreign visitors. Visitor origins are important for an accessibility assessment as they indicate the visitor mode of arrival and provide insight into the visitor distribution pattern within the tourism destination.
By air, Bromo-Tengger-Semeru is accessed via Juanda International Airport in Surabaya or Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport in Malang; visitors then proceed to the destination by road.
4.1 EXISTING MODE OF TRAVEL AND VISITORS’ MOVEMENT The international gateway to the park is through Juanda International Airport in Surabaya, meaning that road connectivity from the airport to the destination is critical. However, at present few international visitors travel to Bromo, so its importance for tourism will depend on future demand.
The majority of domestic visitors are from Java as well, likewise indicating the importance of road connections. However, according to the market study (detailed later), accessibility is a key challenge.
The tourist distribution for Bromo-Tengger-Semeru is illustrated below (Figure 16).
4.2 ENTRANCE GATES TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU NATIONAL PARK The National Park has five gates. Figure 16 shows the distribution of visitors using each gate.
• Cemoro Lawang is the most popular entrance gate, accounting for 43% of total entrances, as the majority of the visitors come from Probolinggo.
• Tourists coming from Psauruan normally enter the National Park from the Wonokitri gate.
• On the other hand, trekkers hiking Mount Semeru come from the southern gates (mainly from Lumajang through Ranupani, and some from Malang through Tumpang).
• The Kantor Balai gate is less frequently used as it is for government officials/ministry use only.
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FIGURE 16: PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU THROUGH RESPECTIVE ENTRANCE GATES, 2014
Tumpang 12%
Cemoro Wonokitri Lawang 20% 43%
Ranupani 25%
Source: Taman Nasional Bromo-Tengger-Semeru
FIGURE 17: BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU TOURISM DESTINATION AND VISITORS’ MOVEMENT
Source: Google Maps, HHTL, Surbana Jurong
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5. HOTEL & LODGING OPTIONS (AMENITIES)
5.1 VOLUME & NUMBER OF ROOMS The total number of hotels and accommodations as well as number of rooms in the four kabupaten (Malang, Pasuruan, Probolinggo, and Lumajang) surrounding Bromo-Tengger- Semeru remained the same during the period 2011 to 2014, averaging at around 700 hotels and 9,000 rooms. In 2015, however, the number of hotels and rooms soared to almost 1,500 and 12,000 respectively. This can be explained as the result of a continual increase in hotels and accommodations investment in East Java since 2012 (as most hotel projects take 2-3 years to complete from the year of investment to fully operational), leading to the boom of hotel openings in 2015, as seen in Figures 18 and 19.
It should be noted that, although there was a decline in visitors to the destination in 2015, as described in Chapter 3, the development plans of the hotels opened in 2015 were formulated a few years earlier when the tourist arrivals were on an upward trend.
FIGURE 18: NUMBER OF HOTELS AND ACCOMMODATIONS IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2011 TO 2015
Source: Provinsi-Jawa-Timur-Dalam-Angka-2013 to 2016
FIGURE 19: NUMBER OF ROOMS IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2011 TO 2015
Source: Provinsi-Jawa-Timur-Dalam-Angka-2013 to 2016
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Although Pasuruan has the highest number of hotels among the 4 cities, from the interviews with local travel agents and hotels, not many tourists visiting the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru stay there overnight. The main reason for this is the lack of tourist activities and facilities (such as restaurants, travel agents, etc.) in Pasuruan.
It is noted that most tourists prefer to stay in Cemoro Lawang (part of Probolinggo)—where there are plenty of guesthouses, hotels, tour operators (jeep, bike rental, horse rental), and small restaurants—which is also close to the viewpoint and other popular tourist spots in the National Park. For tourists staying further away from the National Park area, there is a growing trend to stay overnight in Malang as the city is positioning itself as the gateway city for Bromo-Tengger-Semeru and has the potential to be a tourist draw itself. It has put increasing efforts into enhancing the tourist facilities in the city, such as developing more and higher-quality accommodations, restaurants, and travel agencies. Furthermore, as more Bromo visitors stay there, Malang aims to present its own local culture as a reason for visitors to stay even longer in the city.
5.2 HOTEL MARKET TIERS Although there are plenty of accommodations in the four surrounding cities, most of them are guesthouses or non-star-rated hotels (accounting for 98% of the total accommodation). According to the latest figures in 2015, there are only 31 star-rated hotels and the majority of these hotels are 3-star or below. Among the 4 area cities, Malang has the most star-rated hotels (over 80%), and is the only city with 5-star hotels, as seen in Figure 20.
FIGURE 20: NUMBER OF STAR RATED HOTELS BY CATEGORIES, 2015
Source: Provinsi-Jawa-Timur-Dalam-Angka-2016
5.3 PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES BY TIER There are no available official statistics regarding the hotels and other accommodations in the Park in terms of location, room inventory and performances (rates and occupancies achieved). The below is only quantitative estimates from interviews with hotel and tourism professionals in the area.
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Guesthouses close to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru (such as in Cemoro Lawang): The average daily rate (ADR) of guesthouses near the National Park is estimated at IDR 300,000 – 500,000 per room. There is normally a 20% to 30% difference between weekdays and weekends/holidays (higher). Occupancy of guesthouses is generally 80% to full during weekends but much lower on weekdays and during the rainy season. Overall guesthouse occupancy is estimated at approximately 30% to 40%. Hotels close to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru (such as in Cemoro Lawang): The ADR of area hotels is between IDR 500,000–700,000, with a 20–30% rate premium on weekends and holidays. Demand for hotel rooms is high, especially among international guests and high- spending domestic visitors, as there are a limited number of hotels in the region. Hotel occupancy rates are higher than that of guesthouses, at around 50% to 60%. Star-rated hotels in Malang: Although Malang is positioning itself as the gateway city to Bromo, at present, leisure demand only accounts for around 20–40% of the total room night demand in star-rated hotels. The remaining room night demand comes from corporate demand and government meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions (MICE) demand. Hotel demand is strong in Malang, despite the high levels of room availability, leading to occupancy levels of over 65–75%. However, ADR is slightly lower for hotels in Malang in comparison with those closer to Bromo, ranging between IDR 450,000 and 550,000.
5.4 HOTEL FACILITIES & QUALITY Guesthouses close to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru (such as in Cemoro Lawang): Guesthouses usually have 2–4 guestrooms, mostly with shared bathrooms and basic local style accommodations. Room capacity in guesthouses is usually flexible and can normally fit up to 4 guests. Most provide only accommodations, though some provide breakfast and other catering services on request. They typically provide homemade local food. They normally have stable power and water supplies. They are popular among domestic travelers, especially young people who are looking for value-for-money accommodations and who are travelling in small groups. International guests seldom live in these guesthouses mainly due to the language barrier and lack of information. Hotels close to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru (such as in Cemoro Lawang): The hotels close to the National Park are usually small- to medium-sized hotels with an average room count of 30–50. Most hotels feature only an all-day-dining restaurant. They mainly serve local cuisines with a limited selection of Western dishes. Some restaurants, such as the one in the Lava View Lodge, feature nightly live music. The Jiwa Jawa Hotel, however, has a restaurant, meeting rooms, art gallery, and an open stage where the famous Jazz Gunung event takes place every year. In terms of meeting and other facilities, hotels close to Bromo-Tengger- Semeru usually have only limited meeting space to accommodate small- to medium-sized meeting groups, in line with the smaller number of guestrooms they have available. Hotels in Cemoro Lawang such as Jiwa Jawa Hotel, Lava View Hotel, Hotel Bromo Permai, etc.: Although they are mostly small non-star-rated hotels, they provide decent hotel accommodations and food & beverage facilities in close proximity to the popular spots in the National Park. They are popular among international leisure groups and frequent independent travelers (FITs), as well as domestic tourists with higher spending power.
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Star-rated hotels in Malang: Star-rated hotels in Malang are mainly medium-sized hotels with a room count of 120–180. They are fully serviced hotels with a wide range of facilities: restaurants and bars, meeting rooms, and leisure facilities such as a swimming pool, gym, and spa. These hotels usually have a better food and beverage selection. In addition to the all- day restaurant serving both local and Western fare, some provide specialty restaurants or bars, such as the Skyroom at the Best Western OJ Hotel. These restaurants target both in- house guests as well as local residents. The hotels were built to mainly target MICE and corporate demand; they usually feature a wider range of meeting rooms, from smaller ones for 20 to 40 guests to multi-function rooms that can accommodate up to 200 guests as well as leisure facilities such as a swimming pool, gym, and spa. However, given the push to increase tourism in Malang and the accommodation quality gap in areas surrounding the National Park, leisure guest bookings are increasing. Star-rated hotels in Malang such as Best Western OJ Hotel, Savanna Hotel, Santika Hotel, Atria Hotel, etc.: These are full-service, medium-sized, star-rated hotels with quality guestrooms. They are higher-value-for-money than hotels in the Bromo area. Leisure travelers, both domestic and international, who are interested to explore the city of Malang and who do not want to pay the premium for hotels in Bromo area, prefer to stay in these hotels.
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6. SMES: SUPPORTING TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES)
6.1 INDEPENDENT FOOD & BEVERAGE The most frequently-visited restaurants around Bromo-Tengger-Semeru are close to Cemoro Lawang. They are mostly small local restaurants with a capacity of 10 to 20 seats. The average price for a local meal is IDR 30,000–40,000. Below (Figure 21) is the number of restaurants surrounding the National Park.
FIGURE 21: NUMBER OF RESTAURANTS IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2015
1,000 902 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 127 100 50 21 0 Malang Pasuruan Probolinggo Lumajang
Source: Provinsi Jawa Timur Dalam Angka-2016
6.2 TRAVEL AGENCIES FIGURE 22: NUMBER OF TRAVEL COMPANIES AND TRAVEL AGENCIES IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2015
160 139 140
120
100
80
60 47 44 40
20 11
0 Malang Pasuruan Probolinggo Lumajang
Source: Provinsi-Jawa-Timur-Dalam-Angka-2016
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Figure 22 above shows the distribution of travel agents in the areas around the National Park. Most of these agencies offer tour packages to visitors, the most popular of which is a sunrise tour to Bromo. Many hikers are also interested in hiking tours of Mount Semeru. Other narrower-interest offerings include visits to Malang, Batu, Mount Ijen, and Sempu island. Most agencies also offer guide services and vehicle hire. Each travel agency has around 8 to 10 guides. Freelance tour guides are employed during peak season to meet demand. There are some other tourism service providers in the destination such as providers of transportation: Jeeps, rental bikes, and horse-riding.
According to interviews, there is insufficient enforcement of regulations (or a lack of regulations/controls) surrounding tourism activities inside or close to the National Park where there are often reports of unregistered travel agencies and transport providers approaching tourists or scamming tourists, overcharging them, or forcing them to buy additional services.
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7. INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
7.1 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) From the investment statistics on hotels and restaurants in East Java, the number of realized FDI projects were around 5-6 projects per year in the period 2012–2015. This soared to 17 projects to the second quarter of 2016. However, total investment value dropped from a high of USD 53 million in 2011 to less than USD 6 million in 2015. It should be noted that the majority of the FDI in East Java went to Surabaya, the provincial capital, rather than to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru. Yearly FDI projects and values in East Java (encompassing the 4 key kabupaten and the most detailed information available) are shown in Figure 23.
FIGURE 23: REALIZED FDI ON HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS IN EAST JAVA, 2010 TO Q2 2016 Year Number of Projects Investment value (‘000 USD) 2010 1 4,450 2011 3 73,592 2012 6 53,130 2013 7 10,682 2014 5 4,723 2015 7 6,379 2016 (up to Q2) 17 5,790 Source: Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM)
7.2 DOMESTIC DIRECT INVESTMENT (DDI) The number of DDI projects in hotels and restaurants projects in East Java (encompassing the 4 key kabupaten and the most detailed information available) has also grown from 2012– 2016, with a significant bump in 2015 and 2016. The realized investment value was the highest in 2015 compared to the previous years and this was in line with the big jump in the hotel supply of the area in 2015 mentioned earlier. This is shown in Figure 24 below.
FIGURE 24: REALISED DDI ON HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS IN EAST JAVA, 2010 TO 2016 Q2 Year Number of Projects Investment value (million Rp.) 2010 N/A N/A 2011 1 33,408 2012 5 146,353 2013 6 22,016 2014 5 24,420 2015 17 390,999 2016 (up to Q2) 27 132,980 Source: Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM)
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7.3 ASSET CLASSES & SCALE (EXISTING & PIPELINE) The existing asset classes for Bromo-Tengger-Semeru are mainly accommodations (hotels, guesthouses, and home stays), restaurants, and transportation facilities (jeeps and vans). Most of them are small- to- medium in scale. At the moment, accommodations, especially guesthouses and home stays, are the most preferred assets due to their relative ease to develop and lower development costs.
In terms of the pipeline projects, the number of guesthouses and home stays, as well as of supporting tourist facilities in the National Park and its vicinity, is likely to rise in response to increased visitor levels. The National Park’s restrictions on development means that the bulk of this pipeline development will have to be realized in the surrounding cities, with Malang being the most proactive in improving tourism facilities and accommodation products to capture a higher percentage of tourists visiting Bromo. However, concrete and official statistics regarding the pipeline projects are not available.
7.4 KEY PLAYERS/INVESTORS • Tenggerese community: the local native community lives in the area and is involved in tourism activities: renting jeeps, horse rides, homestays, restaurants, etc.
• There are no key domestic developers investing in the development of hotels and restaurant projects in the area. It is understood to be the local community for the most part.
• The Jiwa Jawa Resort Bromo (formerly Java Banana Lodge) is privately owned by Bapak Sigit Pramono and forms part of a trio of hotels in Bromo, Ijen and Semarang. He is also actively involved with Jazz Gunung.
• Local tourism authorities in the 4 kabupaten/kota in the area: Lumajang, Malang, Pasuruan, and Probolinggo.
• Directorate General of Forest Protection and Natural Conservation (PHKA) which is part of the Ministry of Forestry - administration of all Indonesian national parks.
7.5 INVESTMENT SENTIMENT: DOMESTIC & FOREIGN INVESTORS 7.5.1 FOREIGN INVESTORS INTERVIEWED4 Foreign investors canvassed on Bromo-Tengger-Semeru were largely uninterested in the destination, despite its natural beauty, and would need to see improved accessibility and commitment from the government to develop the Park into a destination with broader appeal.
4 Investment sentiment gleaned from interviews with 25 potential and existing foreign investors from Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. The questions were aimed to better understanding their thoughts on pros and cons of SEZs, the tourism investment climate in Indonesia, the future of tourism investment and possible investment opportunities in Lombok.
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7.5.2 DOMESTIC INVESTORS INTERVIEWED5 Domestic investors interviewed were mostly neutral on the investment potential of Bromo- Tengger-Semeru. One investor already had a project near the park, and others noted that its growing domestic popularity made investment in reasonably-priced but well-managed accommodations a viable opportunity.
7.6 FINANCE • Tourism-related businesses in Bromo-Tengger-Semeru and its surroundings can apply for loans through the local Bank Jatim. It offers financing through two programmes: Kredit Pundi Kencana and Kredit Laguna.
o Kredit Pundi Kencana is an opportunity for bigger companies in the service industry, such as hotels and restaurants, to get up to IDR 500 million.
o Kredit Laguna targets SMEs by offering IDR 2 to 50 million in credit.
o The financial tenure is a maximum of 5 years for both programs.
• According to investors in the area, a lot of the SMEs around Bromo-Tengger-Semeru are self-financed.
7.7 STEPS TO OPENING A BUSINESS Within the National Park, it is understood that permits and licenses are controlled by the Ministry of Forestry, which adds a layer of complication. As the National Park is a protected area, the development of any tourism/accommodation projects needs to be confined to the rules and regulations set by the Ministry of Forestry to maintain the sustainability of the Park.
In contrast, starting a business in the surrounding 4 regencies, especially a tourism-related one, is rather easy and efficient. The following shows the typical procedures for starting a business in Malang, according to interviews with investors in the area:
• The office of Integrated Information Service Agencies (Badan Pelayanan Informasi Terpadu) provides a simplified process for creating new businesses. The Integrated One Stop Service Centre (PTSP) aims to smoothen and simplify licensing procedures for investment projects, removing the need for investors to visit various ministries or government agencies to obtain necessary permits. Malang is one of the pilot areas in Indonesia for this integrated process for creating new businesses. According to interviews in Malang, the business registration process is more efficient under the new system.
5 Investment sentiment gleaned from interviews with 9 existing Indonesian tourism investors. The investors chosen had interests in various tourism assets including hotels, restaurants, ground transportation and travel agencies. The questions were aimed at gathering their thoughts on the pros and cons of SEZs, the tourism investment climate in Indonesia, the future of tourism investment and possible investment in Lombok.
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• To establish itself as a tourism city, Kota Malang is encouraging the development of tourist facilities in the area by offering support such as consulting and field assistance to investors.
• Financial incentives for starting tourism-related business are available in Malang, including tax allowance and exemption of import duties on machinery, goods, and materials.
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8. SKILLS ASSESSMENT
8.1 WHAT SKILLS EXIST? There are vocational schools in the 4 surrounding kabupaten. These schools help equip young people with the basic entry-level hospitality skills. Supervisory skills or management skills are mostly learned on the job or imported from big cities like Surabaya and Jakarta. Accommodation: Most guesthouses are small family-run businesses, not professionally managed. Hotels inside or close to the National Park and in Malang are not growing rapidly and have a sufficient skilled labor pool to support them (entry, supervisor, and management levels). Even for the rapid hotel growth in 2015, hotels in the destination and surrounding areas were still able to get skilled labor from Surabaya. Food and beverage: There are no large restaurants inside the Park requiring supervisor or management level skills (except for restaurants in hotels or in cities such as Malang that, for the most part, serve the local community). Travel agencies: These agencies report having access to sufficiently-qualified entry, supervisor, and management level labor.
8.2 WHAT ARE THE SKILLS GAPS? As identified above, there are few skills gaps currently given the maturity of the market and its lack of growth. If Bromo develops further, a larger labor base will be needed, with the SMK providing basic entry-level skills, such as service, culinary and language skills. Greater effort will be needed, however, to develop local supervisor/management-level staff, most of whom are presently sourced from outside the area. There is untapped potential for Bromo to draw on its rich cultural resources. To best unlock this potential, it is crucial to equip the local Tengger people with higher level skills to serve tourists and manage businesses. Training could include: • Regular service and language training for those who engage in tourism activities;
• Basic business skills training for independent operators of guesthouses and restaurants to help them to professionalize and make them more market-ready. This would involve sales, marketing, and technology training;
• Destination management organization (DMO) training could also be offered to local people to develop cultural villages in the area;
• To minimize the adverse effects caused by increasing arrivals to the National Park and to ensure sustainable tourism development of the area, it is important to make environmental conservation training mandatory for everyone engaging in tourism activities in the Bromo area; and
• Providing environmental science training for guides could enrich the depth of information delivered to tourists.
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8.3 TRAINING SCHOOLS As mentioned earlier, each of the four surrounding kabupaten have public vocational high schools and universities with tourism management programs. Below are examples of this type of school in Malang:
• SMKN 2 Malang: This school has been in operation for 52 years, offering tourism- related courses such as such as tourism services, hotel accommodation, and culinary training. There are over 2,000 students in SMKN 2 and around 50% of them are in tourism-related courses.
• SMKN 3 Malang: this school has been appointed by the National Professional Certification Board (BNSP) as the organizer of Education and Skills Competency Assessor Training (Work Place Training Assessor). It offers courses related to hotel accommodation and cuisine.
• SMK Cor Jesu Malang: This school has been open for more than 60 years and offers hospitality and hotel courses.
Hospitality professionals have positive things to say about the quality of graduates from these vocational schools, especially because they help alleviate the need for the companies to provide basic operational and language training. But for higher-level management skills, in- house training or skilled labor from other cities is still needed.
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DESTINATION SWOT & VISION
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9. DESTINATION SWOT
9.1 STRENGTHS • Abundant natural resources, both geological and ecological, in the National Park.
• Popularity of sunrise views of Bromo among local and international tourists visiting East Java.
• Rich culture of the Tengger people and Hinduism.
• Success of social events such as Jazz Gunung and the Bromo Marathon.
9.2 WEAKNESSES • Accessibility difficulties: the National Park is at least 3 hours away by car from the international airport in Surabaya, which is the gateway for the majority of the international and domestic tourists arriving by air. Meanwhile, there are only limited domestic flights from Jakarta and Bali to the closer airport in Malang.
• Road conditions to the National Park are sometimes rough and the travelling time is long as there is no expressway.
• Insufficient star-rated hotels in the area to attract large numbers of international and high-spending leisure guests.
• Overcrowding of popular spots in the National Park, such as viewpoints, as most tourists visit those areas at the same time.
• Poor management of the National Park with (1) insufficient trash collection in popular areas, and (2) insufficient toilets and signage.
• Lack of investment interest from both domestic and foreign investors canvassed for this study.
• The additional layer of bureaucracy involving the Ministry of Forestry when applying for permits/licenses to operate in the National Park.
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9.3 OPPORTUNITIES • The highway under construction from Surabaya to Malang will shorten the travel time between the two cities from 2.5–4 hours to around 1.5 hours.
• Potential upgrade of air transport capacity with plans to build an additional terminal at Surabaya’s airport and a new international airport to be built in Kabupaten Malang.
• Surrounding cities such as Malang are enhancing their tourism attractions to improve the visitor experience and capacity.
• Plans to encourage the development of cultural villages in the National Park to showcase the culture of the Tengger people.
• Special docks for cruise ships could be developed at the Port of Tanjung Tembaga in Probolinggo to target international guests. The Port of Tanjung Tembaga is around 3 hours (87 kilometers) from Mount Bromo and may offer an alternative route in addition to the air travel modes for international guests.
• Under-utilized tourism potential: not enough support for the Tenggerese to develop cultural villages for tourism. This is believed to have potential for domestic and foreign tourism, as the culture provides a backdrop for the story of Bromo-Tengger- Semeru. This is a story that can be enhanced, leveraged and packaged up for tourism consumption.
9.4 THREATS • An unregulated increase in arrivals may pose a threat to the natural environment and ecology of the National Park.
• The large-scale volcanic eruptions that happened in roughly five-year intervals disrupt all tourist activities in the area.
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10. DESTINATION VISION STATEMENT
Bromo-Tengger-Semeru offers unique scenery with close proximity to large urban gateways (Surabaya and Malang) and should be developed into a world-class environmentally- sustainable destination, focusing on its unique beautiful scenery, flora and fauna, which offer world-class hiking and nature /culture-based activities.
Ecotourism should be the cornerstone of the destination’s development, which could include (1) nature-base adventure tourism, and/or (2) community-based programs providing cultural experiences to tourists. The destination should keep developing organically while avoiding mass tourism and maintaining the ecological and cultural integrity of the National Park.
10.1 UNIQUE SELLING POINTS • The Mount Penanjakan sunrise viewpoint and climbing Mount Bromo remain two musts for tourists; access to these activities should be better managed to prevent overcrowding or environmental degradation.
• It is essential to propose alternative pedestrian itineraries to Mount Bromo that can be done independently, without a compulsory guide.
• Bromo has developed a few quality events, i.e. Jazz Gunung and Bromo Marathon, which have helped to diversity the demand base of the destination. This should be encouraged and enhanced, boosting the area’s domestic and international reputation. Culture- and nature-based events are usually relatively small niche events that do not stress the natural environment.
• The activities in the National Park are constrained by its carrying capacity, therefore nature tours should develop in a sustainable way.
10.2 PRODUCTS AND ACCOMMODATION TO BE DEVELOPED To support nature-lovers, hikers and cultural tourists (including those attending events) new accommodation units should be developed near (or inside) the National Park. It is believed that the small demand base would be best accommodated by the following types of lodging:
• Homestays or small star-rated hotels (between 10 and 30 rooms for small groups);
• Hotels with mid-tier comfort and pricing but with full service (breakfast, restaurant, pool, organization of treks);
• The introduction of internationally-branded hotels to provide comfort to foreign guests and more discerning domestic guests will also help the destination gain popularity;
• Unique accommodation experiences within the villages of the Tengger people. They should showcase the traditions and culture of the Tengger people, supplementing village tours with traditional housing and local experiences; and
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• Designated camping/glamping sites inside the National Park, with sufficient supplies of fresh water and power, to serve as alternative accommodations providing unique travel experiences to visitors. This would be particularly appealing to young domestic visitors who enjoy camping in national parks, on mountains, lakeside, etc. with their friends.
It is believed that international visitors will remain a very small component of targeted tourists, and limited to those on the Jakarta–Bali overland route. These intrepid travelers, traveling through Java from Jakarta–Yogyakarta–Bromo–Kawah Ijen itinerary on the way to Bali, will also be attracted by the small scale lodging recommended.
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MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS
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11. FUTURE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS
This section provides high-level projections for the scale, origin and characteristics of future visitor demand to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru, based on the destination positioning outlined above and a quantitative approach.
11.1 QUANTITATIVE APPROACH Our forecasts are based on the assumption that:
• No major future volcanic eruption will restrict the access to the National Park; and
• The National Park will implement the necessary adjustments touched on in this report to (1) improve the tourism experience and (2) encourage investment in accommodation projects.
11.1.1 DOMESTIC VISITORS Domestic visitors represent the majority of arrivals today, although they have dropped since 2014, due in part to an entry fee increase. Once the impact of the increase in prices is absorbed, the level of attendance should recover to gradually reach the levels observed in 2014 (the forecast is for 550,000 visitors in 2021). Subsequently, we assume that visitor growth to the Park will follow national-level trends in tourism demand: CAGR of 1.9% between 2022 and 2026 and a slightly reduced 1.3% between 2027 and 2041.
11.1.2 INTERNATIONAL VISITORS The number of foreign visitors to the Park is very low due to issues such as location, accessibility and quality of accommodation. In fact, it decreased in 2014 and 2015, but mainly due to one-off factors (volcano eruption and ticket price changes). The impact of these factors is assumed to dissipate by 2021, when the number of international visitors is projected to return to 2013 levels (i.e. 33,000).
In the medium term, if the problems of accessibility, accommodation, and general destination quality are addressed, the national park should improve its attractiveness for international visitors. On this basis, the forecast is for an increase in international visitors to 50,000 in 2026 and to 111,600 in 2041.
These forecasts are presented in Figure 25.
FIGURE 25: FORECAST OF VISITOR ARRIVALS TO MOUNT BROMO 2015-2041 Number of arrivals CAGR in % 2016- 2022- 2027- 2015 2021 2026 2041 2021 2026 2041 Domestic visitors 456,995 550,000 603,500 737,200 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% Foreign visitors 17,016 33,000 50,000 111,600 11.7% 8.7% 5.5% Total visitors 474,011 583,000 653,500 848,800 3.5% 2.3% 1.8%
Source: Horwath HTL
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11.1.3 IMPACT ON GUEST NIGHTS AND EXPENDITURE Typically visits to the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park are a day trip that can start from:
• homes (for local visitors);
• accommodation located near the park; or
• accommodation located far from the park.
The existing statistical data does not allow us to determine the relative proportions of day trippers versus visitors who spend at least one night near the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park. For 2015 park visit statistics, it was therefore assumed that every visit corresponded to one night, without it being possible to determine in what type of accommodation and in which place this overnight was spent.
The hypothesis of a 1 day-1 night stay was also made for Indonesian visitors.
For foreign visitors, we have considered that the average length of stay could increase slightly (to 1.2 nights from 2021), as some visitors extend their stays from 1 to 2 nights as the destination develops.
Figure 26 presents the projected number of guest nights in accommodations and overall visitor expenditure in Bromo-Tengger-Semeru: total visitors are forecast to generate total revenue of USD 52.2 million in 2041 (USD 30.6 million in 2021 and 35.9 million in 2026), which is more than twice the current expenditure of domestic and foreign visitors in 2015.6 Foreign visitors are forecast to contribute 36% of total expenditure in 2041.
FIGURE 26: FORECAST OF VISITOR GUEST NIGHTS AND EXPENDITURE IN BROMO TENGGER SEMURU, 2015-2041
2015 2021 2026 2041 Guest nights Domestic visitors 457,000 550,000 603,500 737,200 Foreign visitors 17,000 39,600 60,000 133,900 Total visitors 474,000 589,600 663,500 871,100 Expenditure (in Thousands USD) Domestic visitors 20,840 25,080 27,510 33,610 Foreign visitors 2,360 5,510 8,350 18,620 Total visitors 23,200 30,590 35,860 52,230
Source: Horwath HTL
6 Based on BPS Exit Survey and BPS Domestic Survey. Average expenditure per day of USD 46 for domestic visitors and USD 139 for foreign visitors, assumed to be steady in constant USD.
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INVESTMENT NEEDS
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12. AMENITIES: KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
12.1 HOTEL PIPELINE & FACILITIES DEVELOPMENT We are not aware of any concrete pipeline for new hotels in the National Park area. The above positioning discussion and demand forecasts were based on assumed additional rooms, product variety, and facilities. The following comments develop this further.
12.2 FORECAST OF FUTURE ACCOMMODATION NEEDS The forecast for guest nights in commercial accommodation needs is based on the assumption that most future visitors will use commercial accommodation located near the park—specifically, that approximately 90% of the additional foreign visitors and 75% of domestic visitors will stay in commercial accommodation, hotels, guesthouses or camping, the development of which was recommended above.
Based on a room density factor (number of guests per occupied room) of an estimated 1.5, the room nights in commercial accommodation will increase by 60,100 in 2021 and 210,200 in 2041.
Based on a reasonable long term stabilized occupancy rate of 50% (given the location and destination type) the need for additional rooms will be 330 in 2021, 540 in 2026 increasing to around 1,150 by 2041.
FIGURE 27: NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL ROOMS REQUIRED 2015-2041 2021 2026 2041 Additional guest nights in comm. 90,090 148,575 315,360 accomm. (v. 2015) Domestic visitors 69,750 109,875 210,150 F oreign visitors 20,340 38,700 105,210 Density rate (clients P OR) 1.5 1.5 1.5 Additional rooms nights (v. 2015) 60,100 99,100 210,200 Occupancy rate 50% 50% 50% Additional rooms required 330 540 1,150
12.3 OTHER TOURISM FACILITIES In addition to the comments in the positioning discussion, the following products and services should be developed to support increased tourism arrivals: • New viewpoints with good accessibility to reduce pressure on the popular Pananjakan viewpoint;
• The development of a museum(s) showcasing the destination’s distinctive natural resources (geological and ecological) and cultural resources (the Tengger people and Hinduism);
• Centralized and regulated transportation within the National Park boundaries;
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• Souvenir shops and convenience stores; and
• More events in the vein of Jazz Gunung and the Bromo Marathon to showcase the beautiful scenery and unique culture of Bromo-Tengger-Semeru.
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13. STAFF REQUIRED & SKILLS NEEDED
13.1 ACCOMMODATION STAFF REQUIRED The above demand and supply forecasts will have a net positive effect on employment in Bromo-Tengger-Semeru. Additional services and potential employment growth will occur in all tourism-related sectors.
13.2 ADDITIONAL STAFF REQUIRED Figure 27 above highlights the number of additional rooms forecast for Bromo-Tengger- Semeru. Based on these additional rooms, Figure 28 below provides an estimate of the number of staff required at entry level, supervisor, and management levels by assumed hotel positioning. The hotel positioning is split into 5 categories based on actual achieved daily rates in 2015 across the country, not specific to Bromo-Tengger-Semeru, where insufficient information is available from which to draw staffing ratio conclusions.
Additional assumptions:
• % Total Rooms: the percentage of total rooms per rate category. For example, if the figure is 0.42 this means that 42% of total rooms are within this rate category. The estimates are based on the data collected in the Horwath HTL Indonesia Hotel Industry Survey of Operations 2016;
• Staff / Room Ratio: staffing levels or full-time equivalents (FTE) per room. For example, if the figure is 0.53 this means that 0.53 FTE are required per room. The estimates are based on the data collected in the Horwath HTL Indonesia Hotel Industry Survey of Operations 2016); and
• The staffing level split or proportion of total staff within each of entry level, supervisor, and management level are based on estimates from market research:
- Under USD 40 (achieved average daily rate, 2015) is 10% management and 90% entry level. It is assumed that this category includes homestays, smaller properties, family-owned, and less professionally-managed properties. These are assumed to have a slightly different staff split between management (who are often owner relatives) and entry level, with no supervisor level.
- Over USD 40 (achieved average daily rate, 2015) is 5% management, 10% supervisor, and 85% entry level. These categories are assumed to typically include a higher proportion of star-rated hotels, greater professionalization, larger properties, and thus staff across all 3 levels.
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FIGURE 28: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL STAFF BY HOTEL CATEGORY USD 80 - USD 120 - < USD 40 USD 40 - 80 > USD 240 Total 120 240 Staff / Room Ratio 0.53 0.83 1.15 1.56 2.70 % Total Rooms 0.42 0.31 0.11 0.13 0.03 Additional Rooms: 2021 140 103 37 42 9 330 2026 228 168 60 69 15 540 2041 486 358 128 146 32 1,150 Additional Staff: 2021 74 85 42 66 25 292 Entry Level 67 72 36 56 21 252 Supervisor - 9 4 7 3 22 Management 7 4 2 3 1 18 2026 121 140 69 107 41 478 Entry Level 109 119 59 91 35 413 Supervisor - 14 7 11 4 36 Management 12 7 3 5 2 29 2041 258 297 147 228 87 1,017 Entry Level 232 252 125 194 74 877 Supervisor - 30 15 23 9 77 Management 26 15 7 11 4 63 Source: Horwath HTL
On this basis, by 2021 it is forecast that an additional 292 staff will be required to meet the needs of the additional rooms projected. Between 2021 and 2026, a further 478 staff will be required and between 2026 and 2041, 1,017 will be required.
13.2.1 ADDITIONAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES Other supporting sectors that will benefit directly, should tourism arrivals projections and tourism developments continue to grow and meet expectations, include: • Food & beverage: in support of tourism.
• Retail: as an extension to tourism, souvenirs, if produced and marketed correctly, could also employ a large number of local people.
• Tourism guides.
• Transport service staff for taxis, buses, hired cars, etc.
The volume of current staff in such positions is unknown, so we cannot estimated the precise increase, however it is reasonable to expect staff numbers to at least double given the forecast for a twofold increase in arrivals.
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14. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BASELINE & NEEDS
BASELINE
14.1 ROAD TRANSPORT 14.1.1 EXISTING CONDITIONS Road Network
The road network in the study boundary consists of roads classified as national, provincial and kabupaten roads. The total length of these roads in East Java is 47,732.41 km. The majority of visitors are domestic visitors mainly from Java, hence, the East Java figures are considered for a broad understanding of road conditions.
Figure 29 shows the length of roads by classification for East Java.
FIGURE 29: ROAD CLASS AND CONDITION AT EAST JAVA Year Condition National Provincial Kabupaten Total
(1) (2) (3) (4) /Kota* (5) (6)
Length 2,027.01 1,760.91 34,183.46 37.971,38 2012 Good Condition 628.97 1,509.64 27,027.21 29.165,82 Proportion (%) 31.03 85.73 79.07 76,81
Length 2,027.01 1,760.91 37,018.98 40,806.90 2013 Good Condition 1,934.20 1,556.62 26,243.27 29,734.09 Proportion (%) 95.42 88.40 70.89 72,87
Length 2,027.01 1,760.91 41,305.22 45,093.14 2014 Good Condition 2,004.31 1,571.94 24,159.50 27,734.75 Proportion (%) 98.88 89.27 58,49 61,51
Length 2,361.23 1,760.91 43,610.27 47,732.41 2015 Good Condition 2,261.71 1,574.82 25,823.89 29,657.54 Proportion (%) 95.79 89.43 59,21 62.13 Source: Transportation Statistic East Java (BPS) 2016
In 2015, the ratio of paved roads in good condition was 95.79% for national roads, 89.43% for provincial roads, and 59.21% for kabupaten ones. Hence, many of the kabupaten road sections need to be improved, especially those near tourism attractions.
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Road Density
In 2015, the ratio of road length per number of registered vehicles in East Java was recorded as 3.20 km for every 1,000 vehicles, a slight improvement over previous years, shown in Figure 30. This ratio shows that the level of density of traffic flow in East Java is quite high. This is due to rapid growth of the number of motor vehicles in comparison to the existing road development. There is a need for traffic demand management.
FIGURE 30: ROAD CLASS AND CONDITION IN EAST JAVA
Year Length of National, Provincial and Number of registered vehicles Ratio Kabupaten Roads 2011 37,971 10,645,817 3.57 2012 37,971 11,529,441 3.29 2013 40,806 12,158,409 3.36 2014 45,093 14,896,934 3.03 2015 47,732 14,808,471 3.20 Source: Department of Public Works, East Java Province
External Road Access
Bromo is 3 hours from Surabaya by car. Cemoro Lawang is the most popular entrance gate, accounting for 43% of entrances, as the majority of the visitors come via Probolinggo. Travel time from Surabaya to Probolinggo in normal traffic conditions takes about 2 hours and 20 minutes via the Surabaya-Gempol toll road.
Tourists coming from Pasuruan would normally enter the National Park from the Wonokitri gate. Travel time from Surabaya to Pasuruan in the normal traffic condition takes about 1 hour 20 minutes by Surabaya-Gempol toll road. On the other hand, trekkers hiking Mount Semeru enter through the southern gates (mainly from Lumajang through Ranupani, and some from Malang through Tumpang). Figure 31 shows the road access to the park.
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FIGURE 31: ROAD ACCESS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU
BROMO- TENGGER- SEMERU
Source: Department of Public Works, East Java Province
Internal Road Access
Depending on distance, usually hotels organize transport to the crater by car or horseback. For those with a moderate degree of fitness, the hike across the sea of sand and climb to the rim of the active cone takes about 45 minutes. Roads at Wonokitri and Cemoro Lawang, near the Bromo crater, are narrow, so much so that at times it is difficult for 2 vehicles from opposite directions to pass. It would be advisable to widen these roads in the future.
Traffic Volume
In the study boundary, the highest traffic volume is observed in section between Surabaya and Pasuruan (60,205 vehicles per day); the next-highest volume is the section running between Pasuruan and Probolinggo (23,162 vehicles per day). Figure 32 below shows the major road access capacity to Bromo area (Appendix III shows the detailed calculation of existing road capacity based on the Indonesia Highway Capacity Manual and IRMS database).
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FIGURE 32: REGIONAL ROAD TRAFFIC TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU Length PCU/ VCR National Road IRI Carriageway Capacity (km) peak 1 Surabaya-Pasuruan 5 83 12 6,477 4,033 0.73 2 Pasuruan-Probolinggo 5.5 18.3 11 3,719 5,252 1.18 3 Surabaya - Malang 4.6 134.4 14 6,722 4,016 0.69 Source: Department of Public Works, East Java Province (road capacity calculation by Surbana Jurong)
NOTE: These roads are the national roads (external major roads) providing access to BTS. The road conditions of local roads are added below.
Traffic volume for local roads to Cemoro Lawang, Wonokitri and Ranupani are not known. However, based on observation and research, the traffic volume on these roads is very low.
14.1.2 ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE The road between Surabaya and Probolinggo via Pasuruan are the major roads providing access to Bromo. Figure 33 below summarizes ratio of traffic volume over road capacity (VCR) on the key roads, existing road conditions and the adequacy of major road infrastructure. The road condition of local roads is presented separately.
FIGURE 33: ROAD ACCESS GAPS TO MAJOR TOURISM DESTINATIONS
No National Road Time VCR* Road Conditions 1 Surabaya-Pasuruan 1hr 20 min 0.73 Adequate, shortly will reach its capacity 2 Pasuruan-Probolinggo 1hr 1.18 Inadequate 3 Surabaya - Malang 2hr 30 min 0.69 Adequate * Ratio of traffic volume over road capacity
No Local Road Time Road Conditions Pasaruan – Wonokitri (45 km) Narrow Road (4-6 m width), generally 1 1hr 30 min good condition Probolinggo – Cemoro Luwang (40 km) Narrow Road (4-6 m width), average 2 1hr 18 min condition Malang - Tumpang – Ranupani (48 km) Narrow Road (4-6 m width), average 3 2 hr condition Source: Field survey and research (Travel time)
Apart from roads, parking, which is very limited, affects access to Bromo. Limited or no parking at all is available at the viewpoints, some of which are not accessible by car.
14.1.3 FUTURE PLANS FOR ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE There are plans for toll roads in East Java, as shown in Figure 34. The government emphasizes the utilization of private funds through public-private partnerships (PPPs) for smoother transportation and enhancement of the toll road network. Among others, the sections listed in Figure 35, which are part of the Trans-Java Toll Road, have been given high priority in the acceleration program adopted by the Ministry of Public Works.
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FIGURE 34: EAST JAVA TOLL ROAD PLAN
Source: Dinas Perhubungan East Java Province
FIGURE 35: STATUS OF TOLL ROAD PLAN
Length Toll Road Section Status (km) Kertosono–Mojokerto 41 The first 14 kilometer phase of this toll road connecting Jombang with Bandar Kedungmulyo opened on October 2014 Mojokerto–Surabaya 37 Part of the toll that has been operating is the 2.3-kilometer section IA (Waru-Sepanjang, 2011]) as well as the 18.47-kilometer section IV (Krian-Mojokerto, 2016). While sections IB 4.3 km (Sepanjang-WRR), II 5.1 km (WRR-Driyorejo), and III 6.1 km (Driyorejo-Krian) are planned to be fully operational in 2017 Surabaya–Gempol 43 In operation since 1984, discontinued at Porong due to (Surabaya–Porong) mud flow. There is a plan for a new 10 kilometres Porong- Gempol Toll Road Gempol–Pasuruan 32 Gempol-Pasuruan section I (Gempol-Rembang) lenth13,9 km initially planned to be operated beginning 2016, but has ongoing issue of land acquisition. Planned to be operational in 2019 Gempol–Malang 32 Tendering, Planned to be operational in 2019 Pasuruan- Probolinggo 31 Under Construction, Planned to be operational in 2019 Source: Dinas Perhubungan East Java Province and PWC
The toll road sections Surabaya–Gempol–Malang/Pasuruan-Probolinggo will bring tourists travelling to Bromo by road from the main air gateway in Surabaya to the park area. The project will benefit from the reduced travel time.
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14.2 RAILWAY TRANSPORT 14.2.1 EXISTING CONDITIONS For railway operation in East Java, the province is divided into three railway management bureaus (DAOP, or Daerah Operasi): DAOP Surabaya, DAOP Madiun, and DAOP Jember which operates under PT. Kereta Api (Persero).
The railway network connects Surabaya to both Malang and Pasuruan/Probolinggo. This means that visitors arriving by air to Surabaya could reach the main gateways to the National Park by rail. Moreover, the railway through Pasuruan and Probolinggo continues to Banyuwangi on the far eastern tip of Java. As Banyuwangi is the primary crossing point for travelers moving between Bali and Java overland, this indicates that visitors to the National Park from Bali could also potentially use the railway for at least part of their journey.
14.2.2 ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING RAILWAY The current state of track conditions and the existence of many grade crossings and intrusions into the right of way (ROW) make train operation slow, according to local staff of PT KAI Daerah Operasi VIII Surabaya interviewed for this report. The rolling stock is also deteriorating. Due to the aged engines and maintenance equipment, the operating speed is less than the maximum potential speed. The number of operable trains is also limited. In addition, the lack of linkage between bus and railway services is inconvenient for users and residents who wish for high-quality door-to-door transportation.
Thus, the present railway network is not attractive for most travelers, and is not yet an effective means as alternative transport access to Bromo for visitors originating from Surabaya to Malang or Probolinggo.
14.2.3 FUTURE PLANS FOR RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE On Java Island, there is a plan to eventually double-track the entire northern Java trunk line (Jakarta–Semarang–Surabaya) and southern Java trunk line (Jakarta–Yogyakarta–Solo– Surabaya).
14.3 AIR TRANSPORT 14.3.1 EXISTING CONDITIONS There are two main airports used for access to Bromo. These airports are Juanda International Airport in Surabaya and Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport located close to Malang. There are international flights serving the destination via Surabaya, making it the air transport gateway for international visitors.
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Juanda International Airport
Juanda International Airport is located in Kabupaten Sidoarjo, in the southern part of Surabaya, 20km from the city. Juanda International Airport renewed operations on 15 November 2006, through financial assistance from the Japanese government. The passenger terminal was relocated from the south side of the runway to the north side, not only to increase passenger capacity but also to separate the passenger terminal from the mix-use base terminal of the Indonesian Navy.
The airport has a single 3,000m runway which can receive a B747 class aircraft. Its passenger terminal has a total area of 77,140 square meters and has a service capacity for 12.5 million passengers per year. The airport currently serves 11 domestic airways and seven international airways. The airport currently has flights to 34 cities and five countries.
The annual air passenger trend at Juanda Airport is shown in Figure 36. Juanda Airport cannot accommodate further passenger demands without facility expansion.
FIGURE 36: AIR TRANSPORT DEMAND
Juanda International Airport Year Aircraft Passenger Int Dom Int Dom 2011 10,145 105,627 1,409,415 12,364,466 2012 10,763 125,407 1,543,001 14,904,895 2013 13,983 125,277 1,822,373 15,861,582 2014 12,796 123,399 1,740,420 15,544,665 2015 12,198 124,853 1,687,053 15,456,858 Source: Angkasa Pura I
Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport
Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport in Malang serves as the domestic airport for Malang and the Bromo area. The airport has a two-runway system with length 2,300m for civil aircraft which can receive a B737 class aircraft and 1500m for military operation. Its passenger terminal has a service capacity of 170,000 passengers per year. The number of flights between Malang and Jakarta is 63 per week and between Malang and Bali is 28 per week. In 2014, total passenger volume reached 158,000 with 1281 aircraft movements.
Figure 37 below shows the airport facilities in the two airports.
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FIGURE 37: AIRPORT FACILITIES AT JUANDA AND ABDUL RACHMAN Facilities Juanda Abdul Rachman Saleh Runway (Lm X Wm) 3.000 m x 45 m 2.300 m x 40 m 1.500 m x 30 m (military use) Taxiway (Parallel) N1. 203,75 m x 23 m 330 m x 23 m N2. 285,75 m x 23 m 4 x (140 m x 23 m) N3. 404,5 x 23 m 1800 x 33 m (parallel taxiway N4. 220 m x 23 m for military use) N5. 250 m x 23 m N6. 535,8 m x 23 m N7. 203,75 m x 23 m Loading Apron Requirements 10 Wide Body Aircraft 3 Narrow Body Aircraft 34 Narrow Body Aircraft Terminal Building Capacity 12,500,000 passengers/year 170,000 passengers/year Source: Aeronautical Information Publication, DGCA and PT. Angkasa Pura I
14.3.2 ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Juanda Airport
Figure 38 is an image of the facilities at Juanda Airport.
Passenger Handling Capacity As per existing airport annual capacity, Juanda Airport can handle 12.5 million passengers, so the airport is operating beyond its intended capacity. This gap in terminal building capacity needs to be expanded urgently. Runway Capacity Juanda Airport is not only a primary airport in Indonesia; it is also an Indonesian Navy facility. Sharing the single runway with the navy remains a matter of concern even after the passenger terminal and the navy terminal have been separated. Since it shares its lone runway and airspace with the navy, the capacity of civil aviation is limited. According to Indonesia Airport Slot Management, the existing runway capacity can only handle 26 aircraft movement per hour. At current demand, in peak hours, 27 aircraft movements need to be handled.
The current flight headway (interval between flights) in Juanda is 1 minute and 20 seconds during peak hours, meaning that runway capacity is nearing threshold. Aside from commercial flights, there are about 20 military flights per day. Capacity issues are exacerbated by the speed discrepancy between military planes (low speed) and commercial planes (high speed). This discrepancy constantly leads to full time slots, thereby limiting the number of additional commercial planes that can land. Thus, additional commercial flights cannot be implemented.
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FIGURE 38: JUANDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Source: ICAO Esri ArcGIS Database
Summary of Existing Infrastructure at Juanda Airport
Considering the existing air passenger demand of 15.4 million passengers and aircraft movements of 137,051 aircrafts per year (27 aircraft movements in peak hour), the adequacy of existing airport infrastructure at Juanda International Airport is summarized in Figure 39:
FIGURE 39: EXISTING GAPS IN AIRPORT FACILITIES AT JUANDA AIRPORT Facilities Juanda Assessment Runway (Lm X Wm) 3,000m x 45m Inadequate to meet existing aircraft movement Parallel Taxiway North taxiway Adequate to meet existing aircraft South taxiway movement Loading Apron 21 aircrafts stand needed in peak hour Adequate to meet existing aircraft Requirements Capacity: 44 aircrafts stands movement Terminal Building 12.5 million Inadequate to meet existing air Capacity passenger demand Source: Aeronautical Information Publication, Angkasa Pura I, Surbana Jurong Analysis
Juanda Airport infrastructure capacity needs to be improved in terms of both terminal buildings and runway capacity.
Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport
Figure 40 is an image of the facilities at Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport in Malang.
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Terminal Building Capacity Existing facilities at the airport can handle 170,000 annual passengers; as of 2014, existing demand was 158,000. Therefore, it is highly probable that the facilities will reach full capacity. There are plans to expand Abdul Rachman Airport, which should enable the facilities to handle increased air passenger demand in future.
Runway Capacity The estimated capacity of existing single runway is approximately 16 movements (Refer to Appendix II).
FIGURE 40: ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT
Source: ICAO Esri ArcGIS Database
Summary
Considering the existing air passenger demand and aircraft movements (3 aircraft movements in peak hour), the adequacy of existing airport infrastructure at Abdul Rachman Airport is summarized in Figure 41:
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FIGURE 41: EXISTING GAPS IN AIRPORT FACILITIES AT ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT Facilities Abdul Rachman Assessment Runway (Lm X Wm) 2,250m x 30m Adequate to meet existing aircraft movement Parallel Taxiway None Not required Loading Apron 3 aircrafts in peak hour Adequate to meet existing aircraft Requirements Capacity: 3 aircrafts stands movement Terminal Building 170,000 Adequate to meet existing air Capacity passenger demand Source: Aeronautical Information Publication, DGCA, Surbana Jurong Analysis
14.3.3 FUTURE PLANS FOR AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Juanda Airport
There is a plan for future expansion of Juanda Airport to cater the future demand, shown in Figure 42. This includes construction of a new terminal (Terminal 3) and a second runway, which is targeted to be operational in 2019. The second runway will serve 25-26 flights per hour. It will be 3500 meters long to meet the air traffic demands and safety. The airport operator also plans to make this the main runway in the future. As per Figure 42, a third runway is also planned as part of Airport expansion plan. When completed, the upgraded airport is expected to have a capacity of 75 million annual passengers.
FIGURE 42: FUTURE PLAN OF JUANDA AIRPORT
Source:Angkasa Pura I
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Rachman Saleh Airport
The government is planning to upgrade the runway to accommodate larger planes and potentially upgrade it to an international airport. According to the Airport Master Plan (Ministry Decree KP 283 Year 2015), the following projects are proposed for Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport (seen in Figure 43):
• Construction of new terminal facilities including an apron (4 spots for B737, 1 spots for A-300).
• Construction of a new terminal building at 18,200 m2 with a passenger handling capacity of 1128 passengers during peak hours or 1.8 million per year.
• Runway extension to 3000 x 45 m.
FIGURE 43: ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT MASTER PLAN
Source: Directorate General Civil Aviation, Ministry of Transport
The proposed project is expected to improve Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport’s capability to accommodate narrow body aircraft for medium-haul flights and increase terminal capacity. The safety level will be improved to some extent at the same time because of the installation of ILS (Instrument Landing System) facilities.
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14.4 SEA TRANSPORT 14.4.1 EXISTING CONDITIONS The relevant port for accessing Bromo-Tengger-Semeru is located at Probolinggo, approximately 35 km from the National Park. This port received around 30 cruise calls with around 32,000 passengers in 2015. Bromo-Tengger-Semeru is commonly featured as part of the program for cruises arriving at Probolinggo.
Existing port facilities are shown in Figure 44 and described in Figure 45. The 0.6 mile long access channel between the offshore anchorage and the port basin is maintained to a depth of -4 MLWs (mean low water springs) for a width of 50m.
FIGURE 44: NEW TANJUNG TEMBAGA PORT LAYOUT
Source: Google Earth Map
FIGURE 45: NEW TANJUNG TEMBAGA PORT FACILITIES
Depth of the Pool Port Dock area Length (m) Width (m) (MLWS) A West Talut Tegak Dock 364 4 -2,5 B East Talut Tegak Dock 640 4 -2,5 C Outer Dock 337 1 -2,5 D East Talut Tegak Dock 20 6 -2,5 Source: Pelindo III
14.4.2 ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING SEAPORT INFRASTRUCTURE The existing port infrastructure is suitable for a small class cruise ship with a gross tonnage (GT) of 88,500 that can carry roughly 2,100 passengers.
14.4.3 FUTURE PLAN FOR SEAPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PT Pelindo has plans to build a dedicated cruise terminal at Probolinggo. However, the need for this new cruise terminal will be subject to future demand.
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TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS
14.5 MARKET SHARE OF VISITORS According to the market study, the share of domestic visitors will remain dominant in future. Out of 583,000 visitors in 2021, around 94% are estimated to be domestic. However, the share of foreign visitors will increase in the future. Out of 848,800 visitors in 2041, around 13% are estimated to be foreign visitors.
14.5.1 MODE OF ARRIVAL The mode of arrival and visitor movement pattern is expected to remain similar to the current trends. Land transport will play the most important role for Bromo. Most of the visitors are expected to come from Surabaya and access Bromo through Cemoro Lawang via Probolinggo. Hence, the road connectivity between Surabaya, Probolingo and Cemoro Lawang is important.
The majority of foreign visitors and some of the domestic visitors are expected to access Bromo by air in the future. Thus, Juanda International Airport at Surabaya is an important gateway for most of the international visitors. Some visitors are also expected to arrive at Malang Airport and access Bromo through Tumpang Gate. Hence, road connectivity between Malang and Tumpang Gate will be important. Other road connections, like between Pasuruan to Wonokitri Gate and the access route to Ranupani Gate will also play an important role.
14.6 ROAD TRANSPORT NEEDS 14.6.1 ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS External Roads
Considering the current traffic volume along the national road to the Bromo-Tengger- Semeru area, following are the key conclusions drawn:
• Surabaya-Pasuruan Road is currently adequate in terms of capacity. However, capacity will need to be improved in the future. The toll road for Surabaya-Gempol has been discontinued at Porong due to a mud flow. However, there is a plan for a new 10 kilometer Porong-Gempol Toll Road. This segment of toll road needs to be regularly maintained and improved. It recommended to extend this toll road to Pasuruan in order to further improve the capacity and travel time to access Bromo- Tengger-Semeru. The proposed toll road should at least have a capacity of 7000 PCU per hour to sufficiently meet future demand.
• Pasuruan–Probolinggo Road is currently inadequate and requires capacity improvement. The new Pasuruan-Probolinggo toll road is currently under construction and its capacity is estimated to meet to the increased traffic volume in short term.
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• Gempol-Malang Road is currently adequate in terms of capacity. However, capacity will need to be improved in future due to increased traffic volume. The Gempol-Malang toll road is understood to be the committed project and will be adequate to serve the increased traffic volume in the immediate future.
In summary, the aforementioned toll roads are largely committed and when completed, will improve the accessibility of the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru area from surrounding regions.
Secondary Roads
The current traffic volume in the secondary access roads to the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru park is quite low and is anticipated to remain low in future as well. Hence, the road capacity of all the roads including Pasaruan-Wonokitri, Probolinggo-Cemoro Luwang, Malang – Tumpang and Ranupani will be adequate for the immediate term, though they will require upgradation in the long term. However, at present the road widths of these local roads to access the core tourism area needs to be standardized to 6m, in order to provide adequate space for two vehicles to run in opposite directions. All the above mentioned secondary access roads need to be well maintained in terms of pavement conditions, targeting for IRI < 4.
14.7 RAILWAY TRANSPORT 14.7.1 RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS The railway network in the region connects Surabaya to Malang (2 to 3 hr travel time) and Probolinggo (2 hour travel time) on separate lines. There are government plans to improve the capacity. Although railways play an important role as alternative mode of transport; investment in railway facilities cannot be justified from tourism point of view as the number of visitors currently using this mode of transport is negligible.
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14.8 AIR TRANSPORT NEEDS 14.8.1 FUTURE AIR PASSENGER DEMAND7 JUANDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
• Air passenger movements at Juanda International Airport are estimated to reach 21 million in 2021 and about 35.4 million by 2041.
• The yearly aircraft movements are estimated to reach 177,287 aircrafts in 2021 and 313,020 aircraft by 2041.
ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT
It is understood that there are government plans to upgrade the runway to accommodate larger planes and to potentially upgrade to an international airport. Expansion of the airport will have the potential of an overlapping airspace with Juanda Airport. These alternatives need to be evaluated not only from an economic or financial viewpoint, but also from various aspects such as accessibility by land transport and environmental impact evaluation. Hence, more detailed feasibility studies need to be conducted to upgrade the airport to an international airport.
• Air passenger movements at Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport are estimated to reach 182,162 in 2021 and about 271,927 by 2041.
• Annual aircraft movements are estimated to reach 1,469 aircrafts in 2021 and 2,493 aircrafts by 2041.
14.8.2 AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS JUANDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT Juanda International Airport is operating beyond its infrastructure capacity. In 2021 and 2041, air passenger demand is estimated to increase further. The main airport facilities will need to be improved according to the estimated passenger and aircraft demand in 2021 and 2041 as shown in Figure 46.
7 The Future Air Passenger Demand and Aircraft Movement are estimated on a broad basis to assess the airport infrastructure needs for tourism development. A separate detailed specific Airport Study needs to be conducted to look into the specific air passenger and aircraft demand for individual airports.
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FIGURE 46: JUANDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT – INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS
Existing Airport Plan Short Term Long Term (2015) (2019) (2021) (2041)
Air Passenger 15.4 million NA 21 million 35.4 million Demand 313,020 Aircraft 137,051 aircrafts 177,287 aircrafts aircrafts per landing and per year per year NA year Take Off 22 peak hour 33 peak hour 58 peak hour Demand movement movement movement 3,000m x 45m Second Runway Estimated 3500m L Capacity: 26 Adequate with Adequate with Runway (Lm movements per Estimated Airport Master Airport X Wm) hour Capacity: 25-26 Plan Master Plan Existing Capacity: movements per Adequate hour Parallel Yes Yes Yes Yes Taxiway 21 aircraft in peak N/A N/A N/A Loading hour Apron Capacity: 44 Requirements aircrafts stands 12.5 million annual passengers Terminal 75 million annual Adequate with Adequate with
Building passengers Airport Plan Airport Plan Existing Capacity Inadequate
There is a plan for Juanda International Airport to expand terminal and runway capacity to accommodate 75 million passengers. The plan is needed and should be implemented by phases. However, considering the airport is a regional facility, it is not justified to make investments on this airport solely from tourism point of view for this destination.
ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT
In 2021, current airport infrastructure will be adequate to accommodate forecasted passenger demand. Certain airport facilities that will need to be improved according to the estimated passenger and aircraft demand in 2021 and 2041 are shown in Figure 47.
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FIGURE 47: ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT – INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS
Existing Airport Short Term Long Term (2015) Improvement (2021) (2041) Plan Air Passenger 158,819 NA 182,162 271,927 Demand Aircraft 1281 aircrafts per 1469 aircrafts per 2193 aircrafts landing and year year per year NA Take Off 3 peak hour 3 peak hour 5 peak hour Demand movement movement movement 2,250m x 30m Estimated Runway extension Capacity: 16 to 3000 x 45 m Existing Runway (Lm Existing Capacity: movements per Capacity X Wm) Adequate hour Existing Capacity: Adequate Existing Capacity: Adequate Adequate Parallel None None None None Taxiway 3 stands needed 5 aircrafts 3 aircraft in peak Loading for aircrafts in stands needed hour Ultimate Phase Apron peak hour in peak hour Capacity: 3 Capacity: 5 stands Requirements aircrafts stands Adequate Adequate 170,000 annual Adequate with Adequate with Terminal passengers 1.8 million annual Airport Master Airport Building passengers Plan Master Plan Adequate
The existing airport capacity will be adequate in the short term; however, in the long term the Airport Master Plan will need to be implemented.
14.9 SEA TRANSPORT NEEDS 14.9.1 SEA TRANSPORT INVESTMENT NEEDS Cruise passengers are estimated to increase from 32,000 in 2015 to 75,000 passenger in 2021 and 149,000 passengers in 2041. The existing port infrastructure is suitable for a small class cruise ship with 88,500 Gross Tonnage (GT) that can carry roughly 2,100 passengers. Considering the limited demand for cruises, investments in cruise infrastructure will not be the priority for this destination.
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15. BASIC CAPACITY INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES)
BASELINE
15.1 BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park is the key tourism attraction in this destination boundary. The Park spreads across 4 kabupaten. However, the attractions and accommodations fall in 4 core tourism kabupaten, 1 kota and 3 kecamatan, as shown in Figure 48 below. Hence, the infrastructure assessment focuses on these core areas.
FIGURE 48: BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU TOURISM DESTINATION AND KEY ATTRACTIONS
Source: Google Maps, HHTL, Surbana Jurong
15.2 WATER SUPPLY 15.2.1 EXISTING WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS Local water utility (PDAM) water supply services reach 33.47% of households in Kabupaten Pasuruan, 38.91% of households in Kabupaten Probolinggo, 11.30% of households in Kabupaten Lumajang, 15.20% of households in Kabupaten Malang, and 76.08% of households in Kota Malang. Water network coverage varies among the core kecamatan. PDAM water supply services reach 93.33% of households in Kecamatan Tosari (Kabupaten Pasuruan), 100% of households in Kecamatan Sukapura (Kabupaten Probolinggo), and 10.04% of households in Kecamatan Pasrujambe (Kabupaten Lumajang). In areas outside the PDAMs’ service areas, local residents use river water and groundwater as their main sources of water supply.
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15.2.2 ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING WASTE SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE Exiting coverage of PDAM water supply is tabulated below in Figure 49:
FIGURE 49: EXISTING COVERAGE OF PDAM WATER SUPPLY PDAM Coverage Core Tourism Area (% of households served) Kabupaten Pasuruan 33.47 Kecamatan Tosari 93.33 Kabupaten Probolinggo 38.91 Kecamatan Sukapura 100 Kabupaten Lumajang 11.30 Kecamatan Pasrujambe 10.04 Kabupaten Malang 15.20 Kota Malang 76.08 Source: BPS Pasuruan, Probolinggo, Lumajang, and Profil Kesehatan Pasuruan, Probolinggo, Lumajang
The majority of hotels near the National Park are located in Kecamatan Sukapura (Kabupaten Probolinggo), where the Cemoro Lawang gate is located. There is no coverage gap there. However, water shortages do occur during peak tourist season. Hoteliers purchase water from outside of the vicinity during water shortage.
15.2.3 FUTURE PLANS FOR WATER SUPPLY There is no concrete plan to mitigate the water supply gap during peak season in Bromo. Improvement of coverage is required at Kecamatan Pasrujambe, as existing water supply infrastructure there is not satisfactory.
15.3 WASTEWATER AND SANITATION 15.3.1 EXISTING WASTEWATER AND SANITATION CONDITIONS According to STBM (Sanitasi Total Berbasis Masyarakat), 48.55% of the households in Kabupaten Pasuruan, 59.31% of the households in Kabupaten Probolinggo, 66% of the households in Kabupaten Lumajang, 80.11% of the households in Kabupaten Malang, and 83.86% of the households in Kota Malang have access to adequate sanitation. As for the core tourism areas, accessibility to adequate sanitation facilities varies among kecamatan. 81.27% of the households in Kecamatan Tosari (Kabupaten Pasuruan), 99.74% of the households in Kecamatan Sukapura (Kabupaten Probolinggo), and 44.56% of the households in Kecamatan Pasrujambe (Kabupaten Lumajang) have access to adequate sanitation. STBM’s definition of adequate sanitation is sanitation facilities which are able to:
• Avoid water contamination
• Avoid contact between human and feces
• Avoid contact between insects/animals and feces
• No unpleasant smell
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• Easy to clean
The core tourism kecamatan have high accessibility to proper wastewater management facilities. However, there is no integrated or off-site wastewater management system. Most of the villages and hotels use individual septic tanks.
15.3.2 ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING WASTEWATER AND SANITATION INFRASTRUCTURE Existing sanitation coverage is tabulated below in Figure 50: FIGURE 50: EXISTING COVERAGE OF ADEQUATE SANITATION Adequate Sanitation (% of households Core Tourism Area equipped with/ has access to adequate sanitation) Kabupaten Pasuruan 48.55 Kecamatan Tosari 81.27 Kabupaten Probolinggo 59.31 Kecamatan Sukapura 99.74 Kabupaten Lumajang 66 Kecamatan Pasrujambe 44.56 Kabupaten Malang 80.11 Kota Malang 83.86 Source: Sanitasi Total Berbasis Masyarakat Wastewater and sanitation management quality varies in the Bromo area. The core tourism kecamatan have greater access to proper wastewater management facilities. One major concern regarding sanitation in Bromo is the availability of standard public toilets at the actual tourist attractions, such as the viewpoints. There are insufficient public toilets in these areas at the moment.
15.4 DRAINAGE 15.4.1 ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING DRAINAGE AND FLOODING ISSUE Most of the areas in the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park (including Kabupaten Pasuruan, Kabupaten Lumajang, and Kabupaten Malang) are categorized as high-risk flood zone, seen in Figure 51. Flood risk is low in Kabupaten Probolinggo and Kota Malang. Flooding events that occur in hilly areas of the National Park could trigger landslide. Thus, illegal logging and deforestation must be controlled.
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FIGURE 51: FLOOD DISASTER RISK INDEX MAP
Source: Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), 2010
15.5 SOLID WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE 15.5.1 EXISTING SOLID WASTE COLLECTION AND DISPOSAL CONDITIONS Generally, solid waste is collected manually and transported to a TPS (Tempat Pembuangan Sementara, or Temporary Disposal Site). TPSs are located at residential and community centers. From the TPS, waste is transported to a TPST (Tempat Pengolahan Sampah Terpadu, or Integrated Waste Processing). Most TPSTs are located near the market and managed by a kecamatan/district agency. Segregation of waste takes place in the TPST. Remaining waste is then transported to the TPA (Tempat Pembuangan Akhir, or Final Disposal Area). Procedure of solid waste collection and disposal is shown in Figure 52.
FIGURE 52: PROCEDURE OF SOLID WASTE COLLECTION AND DISPOSAL
Source: RTRW, Rencana Tataruang Wilayah
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The solid waste management system is insufficient in the core tourism kabupaten for the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru destination. Coverage of sustainable solid waste management (collected and disposed at designated TPA) is 12% at Kabupaten Pasuruan, negligible at Kabupaten Probolinggo, 18.62% at Kabupaten Lumajang, 40% in Kabupaten Malang, and 96.09% in Kota Malang.
15.5.2 ASSESSMENT OF EXITING SOLID WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE Existing coverage of sustainable solid waste management (collected and disposed at designated TPA) is tabulated in Figure 53 below:
FIGURE 53: EXISTING COVERAGE OF SUSTAINABLE SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT Sustainable Solid Waste Management Core Tourism Area (% of solid waste generated collected and disposed at designated TPA) Kabupaten Pasuruan 12 Kabupaten Probolinggo 1.82 Kabupaten Lumajang 18.62 Kabupaten Malang 40 Kota Malang 96.09 Source: Dinas Kebersihan Pasuruan, Probolinggo, Lumajang
There is a large gap in solid waste disposal and management in Bromo, except Kota Malang. There is a need to establish a sufficient waste disposal system to ensure the environment is protected if tourist arrivals increase. Ultimately, all solid waste generated should be collected and disposed at a dedicated sanitary landfill site.
15.6 POWER SUPPLY 15.6.1 EXISTING POWER SUPPLY CONDITIONS PLN’s (the state power company) power supply network reaches 82.12% of the households in Kabupaten Pasuruan, 81.14% of the households in Kabupaten Probolinggo, 62.73% of the households in Kabupaten Lumajang, 91.93% of the households in Kabupaten Malang, and almost 100% of the households in Kota Malang. As for the core tourism kecamatan, PLN’s power supply network reaches 94.24% of Kecamatan Tosari, 51.07% of Kecamatan Sukapura, and 48.08% of Kecamatan Pasrujambe.
Power in East Java is generated and distributed from 26 power plants, and distributed through 500 kV and 150 kV. Total capacity of power plants in East Java is 9,125 MW, and the system is shown in Figure 54.
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FIGURE 54: POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM IN EAST JAVA
Source: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia, 2016
15.6.2 ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING POWER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE Existing coverage of power supply network is tabulated in Figure 55 below:
FIGURE 55: EXISTING COVERAGE OF POWER SUPPLY NETWORK
PLN Coverage Core Tourism Area (% of households served) Kabupaten Pasuruan 82.12 Kecamatan Tosari 94.24 Kabupaten Probolinggo 81.14 Kecamatan Sukapura 51.07 Kabupaten Lumajang 62.73 Kecamatan Pasrujambe 48.08 Kabupaten Malang 91.93 Kota Malang 100 Source: BPS Pasuruan, Probolinggo, Lumajang, and Profil Kesehatan Pasuruan, Probolinggo, Lumajang Power supply coverage is relatively less in Kecamatan Sukapura and Kecamatan Pasrujambe. The hotels there would have an alternative power supply arranged for tourists. However, there remains an overall need to improve power supply to the core tourism kecamatan.
15.7 TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE 15.7.1 EXISTING ASSESSMENT OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE There are no major problems with the existing coverage of telecommunication facilities in Bromo. Coverage is satisfactory at the Cemoro Lawang area where most of the hotels are located. Coverage of telecommunication facilities should be upgraded and expended to cater for the expected increase of visitors.
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15.8 SUMMARY OF EXISTING BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE Summary of existing coverage and gap of basic infrastructures in Bromo are tabulated below in Figure 56.
FIGURE 56: SUMMARY OF EXISTING BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT Existing Existing Infrastructure Remarks Coverage Gap Kab. Pasuruan 33.47% 66.53% Coverage varies among core Kec. Tosari 93.33% 6.67% tourism kabupaten and kecamatan. Full accessibility at Kab. 38.91% 61.09% Water Supply Kec. Sukapura where most of Probolinggo (households served the hotels are located Kec. Sukapura 100% 0% by PDAM) Kab. Lumajang 11.30% 88.70% Kec. 10.04% 89.96% Pasrujambe Kab. Malang 15.20% 84.80% Kota Malang 76.08% 23.92% Kab. Pasuruan 48.55% 51.45% Coverage varies among core Kec. Tosari 81.27% 18.73% tourism kabupaten and kecamatan. Almost full Wastewater and Kab. 59.31% 40.69% accessibility at Kec. Sukapura Sanitation Probolinggo where most of the hotels are (households Kec. Sukapura 99.74% 0.26% located equipped/ has access Kab. Lumajang 66% 34% to adequate Kec. 44.56% 55.44% sanitation) Pasrujambe Kab. Malang 80.11% 19.80% Kota Malang 83.86% 16.14% Kabupaten Pasuruan, Lumajang, and Malang Illegal logging and deforestation categorized as high risk flood zone shall be controlled Drainage Kabupaten Probolinggo and Kota Malang categorized as low risk flood zone Kab. Pasuruan 12% 88% Existing gap (especially at Solid Waste Kab. Negligible 100% Kabupaten Probolinggo) has to (solid waste Probolinggo be closed at the soonest generated collected Kab. Lumajang 18.62% 81.38% and disposed at Kab. Malang 40% 60% designated TPA) Kota Malang 96.09% 3.91%
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Existing Existing Infrastructure Remarks Coverage Gap Kab. Pasuruan 82.12% 17.88% No major issue with regards to Kec. Tosari 94.24% 5.76% power supply Upgrading and improvement Kab. 81.14% 18.86% works are required at core Probolinggo tourism kecamatan Power Supply Kec. Sukapura 51.07% 48.96% (households served Kab. Lumajang 62.73% 37.27% by PLN) Kec. 48.08% 51.92% Pasrujambe Kab. Malang 91.93% 8.07% Kota Malang 100% 0% No major issue with regards to coverage of Upgrading and improvement Telecommunication telecommunication infrastructure works are required to cater for increase of visitor
Solid waste management facilities are poor and insufficient in Bromo, particularly in Kabupaten Probolinggo. Pollution caused by garbage will affect the image of Bromo as a popular hiking site in Indonesia. Different approaches should be studied to minimize the solid waste generated by the hikers.
Coverage of water supply at the core tourism areas is satisfactory. The development focus should be to mitigate water shortages during peak season. Installation of water storage facilities is recommended to meet water usage demand during peak season.
Coverage of adequate sanitation varies among the core tourism areas. Existing gaps should be closed as soon as possible, especially in Kecamatan Tosari and Kecamatan Pasrujambe.
There is no major issue concerning power supply in Bromo. To maximize the available capacity, it is important that action be taken to reduce power loss which is relatively high in Indonesia overall.
There is no major issue with regards to the telecommunication facilities in Bromo. It is recommended that the existing coverage shall be expanded at the core tourism kecamatan.
Illegal logging and deforestation shall be controlled as these are one of the factors causing flood in Bromo.
BASIC CAPACITY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS
15.9 FORECAST POPULATION & VISITOR ARRIVALS Basic infrastructure analyses are carried out for the short and long term with reference to the projected population and visitor arrivals, as shown in Figures 57 to 58.
The population growth for the key kabupaten is based on the growth rate produced by BPS at the provincial level.
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FIGURE 57: FORECAST OF POPULATION Key Tourism Kab. 2015 2021 2041 Kab. Pasuruan 1,581,787 1,596,169 1,598,050 Kab. Probolinggo 1,132,443 1,142,740 1,144,086 Kab. Lumajang 1,030,187 1,039,554 1,040,779 Kab. Malang 2,544,315 2,567,449 2,570,475 Kota Malang 851,298 859,038 860,051 Source: HHTL
Visitors staying in commercial accommodation are assumed to be distributed among kabupaten/kota in the same manner as in 2015:
FIGURE 58: FORECAST OF COMMERCIAL ROOMS REQUIRED Key Tourism Kab. 2015 2021 2041 Kab. Pasuruan 717 816 1,206 Kab. Probolinggo 144 164 242 Kab. Lumajang 25 29 43 Kab. Malang 248 283 418 Kota Malang 156 177 262 Total 1,290 1,468 2,170 Source: HHTL. Guest per room = 2.0 for 2015, 4.0 for 2021 and 2041
Basic infrastructure demand projections are generated based on the projected population in the key tourism kabupaten and kota, and the number of visitor arrivals staying in commercial accommodation.
15.10 WATER SUPPLY 15.10.1 FUTURE DEMAND With reference to the projected population and visitor arrivals and water consumption rates (as shown in Figure 59), water demand forecasts are tabulated in Figures 59 to 60. Note that these projections represent maximum requirements assuming that all piped water supply would be provided by PDAM. In reality many non-PDAM local piped water supply networks exist, often community operated, that deliver sustainable water supply.
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FIGURE 59: WATER DEMAND PROJECTION (L/S) 2015 Served by Not Served 2021 2041 Demand PDAM by PDAM Kab. Pasuruan 1,831 613 1,218 2,217 2,220 Kab. Probolinggo 1,311 510 801 1,587 1,589 Domestic Kab. Lumajang 1,192 135 1,058 1,444 1,446 Kab. Malang 2,945 448 2,497 3,566 3,570 Kota Malang 985 750 236 1,193 1,195 Kab. Pasuruan 3 1 2 9 14 Tourism & Kab. Probolinggo 1 0 0 2 3 Visitor Kab. Lumajang 0 0 0 0 0 (Commercial Kab. Malang 1 0 1 3 5 Accomm.) Kota Malang 1 1 0 2 3 Total 8,270 2,457 5,813 10,024 10,044 Source: Surbana Jurong
Figure 59 above showcases estimated water demand (L/s) by different categories of consumers in 2015 (with amount of water served and not served by PDAM). Projected water demand by different categories of consumers in 2021 and 2041 are also presented. A summary of the existing and projected water demand for each of the key tourism kabupaten and kota are tabulated in Figure 60; while the ratio of estimated water demand to support tourism activities with respect to overall demand is shown in Figure 61.
FIGURE 60: SUMMARY OF WATER DEMAND PROJECTION (L/S)
2015 2021 2041 Kab. Pasuruan 1,834 2,226 2,233 Kab. Probolinggo 1,311 1,589 1,592 Kab. Lumajang 1,192 1,444 1,446 Kab. Malang 2,946 3,569 3,575 Kota Malang 986 1,195 1,198 Total 8,270 10,024 10,044 Source: Surbana Jurong
FIGURE 61: ESTIMATED WATER DEMAND RATIO 2015 2021 2041 Domestic 8,264 10,007 10,019 Visitor 6 17 25 % of visitor / total 0.07% 0.17% 0.25% Source: Surbana Jurong
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Key Assumptions:
The average water demand for the study area is estimated by using unit water demand per capita for local residents and visitors. The SNI 3-7065-2005 standard has been used, meaning that the population and visitors should have access to sustainable piped water supply which is defined as having a house connection and 24 hours water supply at 120l/cap/day for domestic users and 250l/cap/day for visitors staying overnight. The adopted water consumption rate in lpcd (litres per capita per day) for residents and visitors are tabulated in Figure 62. The projected water demand is then converted to L/s (litres per second). The unit rates of water consumption for different usages are expected to increase by 20% - 25% in 2021 due to an upturn in living standards and water accessibility, and then remain constant until 2041, assuming sufficient water conservation approaches and awareness among residents.
FIGURE 62: WATER CONSUMPTION RATE Unit Rate (lpcd) Type of Usage 2015 2021 2041 Domestic 100 120 120 VFR 85 105 105 Visitor Commercial Accommodation 200 250 250
Based on the above considerations, total existing water demand is forecast to be 1,834 L/s for Kab. Pasuruan, 1,312 L/s for Kab. Probolinggo, 1,192 L/s for Kab. Lumajang, 2,946 L/s for Kab. Malang, and 986 L/s for Kota Malang. From total demand, only about 29.71% are provided by piped water supply. Water demand in 2021 and 2041 is estimated to be about 2,226 L/s and 2,234 L/s in Kab. Pasuruan, 1,589 L/s and 1,592 L/s in Kab. Probolinggo, 1,444 L/s and 1,446 L/s in Kab. Lumajang, 3,569 L/s and 3,575 L/s in Kab. Malang, and 1,195 L/s and 1,198 L/s in Kota Malang. Water demand for tourism activities is less than 1% of the overall water demand.
15.10.2 WATER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS The following key projects for water supply infrastructure are recommended: Short Term Recommendations (2021)
• 100% piped water coverage at key tourism Kecamatan (Kec. Tosari, Sukapura, and Pasrujambe);
• Expansion of existing water supply networks and construction of new networks to meet the above-mentioned targets;
• Expansion of existing water treatment plants to utilize available water sources; and
• Effective and necessary efforts should be put in place to reduce water loss to 20%
Long Term Recommendations (2041)
• Construction of new water treatment plant(s) to produce potable water from the existing and identified water sources;
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• Expansion of existing water supply networks and the construction of networks to serve the potential growth of population and visitor arrivals; and
• Effective and necessary efforts should be made to reduce water loss to 10%.
15.11 WASTEWATER AND SANITATION 15.11.1 FUTURE DEMAND With reference to the projected population and visitor arrivals, the forecast for sewage generation is tabulated in Figures 63 to 64. Sewage generation is assumed at 80% of water supplied. Note that current coverage of adequate sanitation in this analysis relates to STBM standards. Actual current sustainable sanitation coverage is lower because STBM quality standards are inferior to national standard SPM Permen PU 01/PRT/M/2014.
FIGURE 63: SEWAGE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/S)* 2015 Adequate Inadequate 2021 2041 Demand Sanitation Sanitation Kab. Pasuruan 1,465 711 754 1,774 1,776 Kab. Probolinggo 1,049 622 427 1,270 1,271 Domestic Kab. Lumajang 954 630 324 1,155 1,156 Kab. Malang 2,356 1,887 469 2,853 2,856 Kota Malang 788 661 127 954 956 Kab. Pasuruan 3 3 - 8 11
Tourism & Visitor Kab. Probolinggo 1 1 - 2 2 (Commercial Kab. Lumajang 0 0 - 0 0 Accomm.) Kab. Malang 1 1 - 3 4 Kota Malang 1 1 - 2 2 Total 6,616 4,516 2,100 8,019 8,035 Source: Surbana Jurong * Sewage generation = 80% water consumed
Figure 63 above showcases estimated sewage generation (L/s) by different categories of consumers in 2015 (with the amount of adequate and inadequate sanitation as per STBM standards). Projected sewage generation by different categories of consumers in 2021 and 2041 are also presented. The summary of existing and projected sewage generation for each of the key tourism kabupaten and kota are tabulated in Figure 64 while the ratio of estimated sewage generation from tourism activities with respect to overall generation is shown in Figure 65.
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FIGURE 64: SUMMARY OF SEWAGE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/S)
2015 2021 2041 Kab. Pasuruan 1,467 1,781 1,787 Kab. Probolinggo 1,049 1,271 1,273 Kab. Lumajang 954 1,155 1,157 Kab. Malang 2,357 2,855 2,860 Kota Malang 789 956 958 Total 6,616 8,019 8,035 Source: Surbana Jurong
FIGURE 65: ESTIMATED SEWAGE GENERATION RATIO 2015 2021 2041 Domestic 6,611 8,006 8,015 Visitor 5 14 20 % of visitor / total 0.07% 0.17% 0.25% Source: Surbana Jurong
The total current sewage generation is estimated to be 1,468 L/s for Kab. Pasuruan, 1,050 L/s for Kab. Probolinggo, 954 L/s for Kab. Lumajang, 2,357 L/s for Kab. Malang and 789 L/s for Kota Malang. From the total generated sewage 68.26% is discharged and managed by STBM standard sanitation facilities. Sewage generation in 2021 and 2041 is forecast to be about 1,782 L/s and 1,787 L/s for Kab. Pasuruan, 1,272 L/s and 1,273 L/s for Kab. Probolinggo, 1,155 L/s and 1,156 L/s for Kab. Lumajang, 2,856 L/s and 2,860 L/s for Kab. Malang, and 956 L/s and 958 L/s for Kota Malang. Sewage generation from visitors is less than 1% of overall sewage generation.
15.11.2 WASTEWATER AND SANITATION INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS The following key projects for wastewater and sanitation infrastructure are recommended for the short term (2021):
• 100% coverage of sustainable sanitation at key tourism Kecamatan (Kec. Tosari, Sukapura, and Pasrujambe);
• In accordance with the national service standards for public works and spatial planning (SPM Permen PU 01/PRT/M/2014) sustainable sanitation is defined as having access to a private or a communal (MCK) toilet connected to a septic tank or to a piped sewer system with downstream treatment facilities. If population density is higher than 300 inhabitants/ha, an off-site sewer system is required with centralized wastewater treatment plant. Waste water treatment facilities must meet specified technical and effluent quality standards.
• Installation of sufficient numbers of septic tanks in residential areas;
• Small scale wastewater treatment plants are recommended at the hotels/ resorts; and
• Public toilet and sanitation facilities should be provided at tourism sites.
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Recommendations for the long term (2041) are as below:
• 100% coverage of sustainable sanitation at key tourism kabupaten;
• Development of integrated sewage treatment facilities, including sewage treatment plants and sewerage networks.
15.12 DRAINAGE 15.12.1 DRAINAGE INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS Most of the areas in the Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park (including Kabupaten Pasuruan, Kabupaten Lumajang and Kabupaten Malang) are categorized as High risk flood zone. Maintenance and upgrading of the existing drainage systems is necessary as more tourists are expected. Illegal logging and deforestation should be controlled.
15.13 SOLID WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE 15.13.1 FUTURE DEMAND With reference to the projected population and visitor arrivals, and the rate of solid waste generation (as shown in Figure 69), the forecast for solid waste generation is tabulated in Figures 66 to 67:
FIGURE 66: SOLID WASTE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/DAY) 2015 Sustainable Unsustainable 2021 2041 Demand Management Management Kab. Pasuruan 3,559,021 427,082 3,131,938 3,591,381 4,314,736 Kab. Probolinggo 2,547,997 46,374 2,501,623 2,571,164 3,089,033 Domestic Kab. Lumajang 2,317,921 431,597 1,886,324 2,338,996 2,810,104 Kab. Malang 5,724,709 2,289,884 3,434,825 5,776,760 6,940,282 Kota Malang 1,915,421 1,840,528 74,893 1,932,836 2,322,137 Kab. Pasuruan 5018 602 4416 11424 20254 Tourism & Visitor Kab. Probolinggo 1006 18 987 2290 4059 (Commercial Kab. Lumajang 178 33 145 405 719 Accommodation) Kab. Malang 1739 696 1043 3959 7019 Kota Malang 1089 1047 43 2480 4398 Total 16,074,098 5,037,860 11,036,238 16,231,697 19,512,742 Source: Surbana Jurong
Figure 66 above showcases estimated solid waste generation (L/day) by different categories of consumers in 2015 (with amount of sustainable and unsustainable management). Projected solid waste generation by different categories of consumers in 2021 and 2041 is also presented. The summary of existing and projected sewage generation for each of the key tourism kabupaten is presented in Figure 67, while the ratio of estimated sewage generation from tourism activities with respect to overall generation is shown in Figure 68.
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FIGURE 67: SUMMARY OF SEWAGE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/DAY) 2015 2021 2041 Kab. Pasuruan 3,564,039 3,602,805 4,334,991 Kab. Probolinggo 2,549,002 2,573,454 3,093,093 Kab. Lumajang 2,318,099 2,339,402 2,810,822 Kab. Malang 5,726,448 5,780,719 6,947,302 Kota Malang 1,916,510 1,935,317 2,326,535 Total 16,074,098 16,231,697 19,512,742 Source: Surbana Jurong
FIGURE 68: ESTIMATED SOLID WASTE GENERATION RATIO 2015 2021 2041 Domestic 16,065,068 16,211,138 19,476,293 Visitor 9,030 20,559 36,450 % of visitor / total 0.06% 0.13% 0.19% Source: Surbana Jurong
15.13.2 KEY ASSUMPTIONS: The average solid waste generation for the study area is estimated by using solid waste generation unit rates per capita for local residents and visitors. The adopted rate in L/c/d (litres per capita per day) for residents and visitors is tabulated in Figure 69. It is forecast that there will be no changes in the unit rate of solid waste generation over the short term (2021), but it will increase by 20% in the longer term (2041).
FIGURE 69: RATE OF SOLID WASTE GENERATION8 Unit Rate (L/capita/day) Type of Usage 2015 2021 2041 Domestic 2.25 2.25 2.7 VFR 1.6 1.6 1.92 Visitor Commercial Accommodation 3.5 3.5 4.2
Our analysis shows that total solid waste generation in 2015 is forecast to be 3,564,039 L/day in Kab. Pasuruan, 2,549,003 L/day in Kab. Probolinggo, 2,318,099 L/day in Kab. Lumajang, 5,726,448 L/day in Kab. Malang, and 1,916,510 L/day in Kota Malang. From the total solid waste generated, only about 31.34% is collected and disposed at the designated TPAs. Solid waste generation in 2021 and 2041 is estimated to be about 3,602,805 L/day and 4,334,990 L/day in Kab. Pasuruan, 2,573,454 L/day and 3,093,092 L/day in Kab. Probolinggo, 2,339,401 L/day and 2,810,823 L/day in Kab. Lumajang, 5,780,719 L/day and 6,947,301 L/day in Kab. Malang, and 1,935,316 L/day and 2,326,535 L/day in Kota Malang. Solid waste generated from tourism activities is less than 1% of the overall generation.
8 Reference: Standard for Setting of Town Environmental Sanitation Facilities, China and Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources, Singapore, Kosuke. K, Tomohiro. T. Revisiting Estimates of Municipal Solid Wastes Generation per Capita and Their Reliability, 2015.
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15.13.3 SOLID WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS Sustainable solid waste management services shall be made available in all key tourism areas. According to the national service standards for public works and spatial planning (SPM Permen PU 01/PRT/M/2014), sustainable solid waste management is defined as having access to a solid waste collection services of at least twice a week and transport of waste collected to a transfer station or a processing unit. Solid waste management operations must be in accordance with national technical standards for management of solid waste facilities (Permen PU 03-2013) and for urban waste management techniques (SNI 19-2454-2002). Sustainable solid waste facilities should be made available at residential areas, markets and visitor attractions. Organized collection, transportation and disposal systems are necessary, particularly in the key tourism areas.
As such, the following solid waste infrastructure projects are recommended for the short term (2021):
• 100% sustainable solid waste management sanitation at key tourism Kecamatan (Kec. Tosari, Sukapura, and Pasrujambe);
• Allocation of sufficient numbers of Temporary Disposal Sites (TPS);
• Increase in the capacity of trash trucks and in the frequency of collection is needed;
• Education and enforcement is needed to create awareness among residents of the importance of solid waste management and to forbid them from disposing rubbish into water bodies; and
• Expansion of existing Final Disposal Sites (if there is room for expansion) and allocation of new Final Disposal Sites (to adopt sanitary landfill methods).
Recommendations for the long term (2041) are as below:
• Solid waste collection and disposal facilities should be increased and expanded accordingly;
• Allocation of more Integrated Waste Processing Sites (TPST) will be needed so that solid waste is sorted and segregated before being transported to Final Disposal Sites (TPA). This can reduce the amount of waste delivered and is a more sustainable and environmental friendly approach; and
• Development of sanitary landfill site(s) with sufficient capacity. Location of the landfill sites should be studied, taking into consideration the distance from the residential and tourism attractions, and environmental sensitivity. Landfill sites can fill up quickly if waste is not reduced and reusable waste is not collected, separated and recycled. There is also the risk of groundwater contamination if waste is not sealed correctly or if the liner system of the landfill site is damaged. Hence, landfill sites protect community health only if they are well managed.
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15.14 POWER SUPPLY 15.14.1 FUTURE DEMAND With reference to the projected population and visitor arrivals, and the power consumption rate (as shown in Figure 73), the forecast for power demand is tabulated in Figures 70 to 71:
FIGURE 70: POWER DEMAND PROJECTION (MWH) 2015 Served by Not Served 2021 2041 Demand PLN by PLN Kab. Pasuruan 1,581,787 1,299,027 282,760 3,990,423 7,590,740 Kab. Probolinggo 1,132,443 918,835 213,608 2,856,849 5,434,411 Domestic Kab. Lumajang 1,030,187 646,244 383,943 2,598,885 4,943,701 Kab. Malang 2,544,315 2,338,989 205,326 6,418,622 12,209,756 Kota Malang 851,298 851,298 - 2,147,596 4,085,241 Kab. Pasuruan 2,867 2,355 513 4,080 7,234 Tourism & Visitor Kab. Probolinggo 575 466 108 818 1,450 (Commercial Kab. Lumajang 102 64 38 145 257 Accommodation) Kab. Malang 994 913 80 1,414 2,507 Kota Malang 623 623 - 886 1,571 Total 7,145,190 6,058,814 1,086,376 18,019,718 34,276,866
Source: Surbana Jurong
Figure 70 above shows estimated power demand (Mwh) by different categories of consumers in 2015 (with amount of power served and not served by PLN). Projected power demand by different categories of consumers in 2021 and 2041 is also presented. The summary of existing and projected power demand for each of the key tourism kabupaten and Kota is presented in Figure 71, while the ratio of estimated power demand to support tourism activities with respect to overall demand is shown in Figure 72. FIGURE 71: SUMMARY OF POWER DEMAND PROJECTION (MWH) 2015 2021 2041 Kab. Pasuruan 1,584,654 3,994,503 7,597,974 Kab. Probolinggo 1,133,018 2,857,667 5,435,860 Kab. Lumajang 1,030,289 2,599,029 4,943,957 Kab. Malang 2,545,309 6,420,036 12,212,263 Kota Malang 851,921 2,148,482 4,086,812 Total 7,145,190 18,019,718 34,276,866 Source: Surbana Jurong
FIGURE 72: ESTIMATED POWER DEMAND RATIO 2015 2021 2041 Domestic 7,140,030 18,012,375 34,263,848 Visitor 5,160 7,342 13,018 % of visitor / total 0.07% 0.04% 0.04% Source: Surbana Jurong
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Key Assumptions:
The adopted rate Kwh (Kilowatt hours) for residents and visitors is tabulated in Figure 73. It is estimated that the unit rate of power consumption will increase in both the short term (2021) and long term (2041).
FIGURE 73: POWER CONSUMPTION RATE9 Unit Rate (Kwh) Type of Usage 2015 2021 2041 Domestic (per person), including VFR 1,000 2,500 4,750 Commercial Accommodation Visitor 4,000 5,000 6,000 (per room)
Based on the above considerations, total existing power demand is forecast to be 1,584,654 Mwh for Kab. Pasuruan, 1,133,018 Mwh for Kab. Probolinggo, 1,030,289 Mwh for Kab. Lumajang, 2,545,309 Mwh for Kab. Malang, and 851,921 Mwh for Kota Malang. Out of the total demand, about 84.80% is fulfilled by the PLN power network. Power demand in 2021 and 2041 is estimated to be about 3,994,503 Mwh and 7,597,974 Mwh at Kab. Pasuruan, 2,857,667 Mwh and 5,435,861 Mwh at Kab. Probolinggo, 2,599,030 Mwh and 4,943,958 Mwh at Kab. Lumajang, 6,420,036 Mwh and 12,212,263 Mwh at Kab. Malang, 2,148,482 Mwh and 4,086,812 Mwh at Kota Malang. Power demand for tourism activities is less than 1% of the overall demand.
15.14.2 POWER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS There is no major concern with regards to power supply to support the tourism activities due to the relatively low demand of visitors as compared to that of residents.
The following key power supply infrastructure projects are recommended for the short term (2021):
• 100% coverage of PLN power supply at key tourism Kecamatan (Kec. Tosari, Sukapura, and Pasrujambe);
• Expansion of existing power transmission and distribution networks and construction of new networks to meet the above mentioned target.
Recommendations for the long term (2041) are as below:
• Expansion of existing power plants (if there is room for expansion) and construction of new power plants to generate sufficient power; and
• Expansion of existing power supply networks and construction of new networks to transmit and distribute generated power from PLN’s power plant to support potential growth of power demand.
9 Reference: National Energy Council, Republic of Indonesia. Bin Su, Hotel Design and Energy Consumption, 2012.
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15.15 TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE 15.15.1 TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS The expansion of existing telecommunication coverage is required to support the additional growth in population and visitor arrivals. This is important to ensure sufficient connectivity in case of emergencies, and to enable visitors to share their travel experiences. Collaboration between the authorities and the telecom companies is needed to improve the telecommunication infrastructure. Projected population and visitor arrivals should be made known to the telecom companies so that upgrading and expansion of telecommunication facilities can be planned in advance.
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KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
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16. WHAT WILL TRIGGER INVESTMENT?
Investment responds to actual increases or anticipated future increases in demand. To mobilize private investment, investors need to be convinced that the anticipated future increases in demand will materialize and that the process of investment will be satisfactory.
In the following sections, we will provide:
• recommendations for improvements in the regulatory environment and destination management;
• recommendations for products and services that are suitable for development and management by SMEs; and
• recommendations for tourism-driven infrastructure investments, both transport and basic capacity.
16.1 RECOMMENDATIONS ON DESTINATION ENHANCEMENTS The following destination enhancements will help foster investment in Bromo-Tengger- Semeru and help the destination to realize its estimated potential visitor demand:
• A National Park Plan for the development of tourism facilities that enlarge tourism capacity. This should include zoning for various business types, lending legitimacy and transparency to the destination; and
• Continued improvement of tourist facilities in the gateway cities such as Lumajang, Malang, Pasuruan, and Probolinggo, and enhanced accessibility from these cities to the National Park.
16.2 LEGAL & REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT ENHANCEMENTS The following legal and regulatory environment enhancements will also help foster investor confidence and drive both domestic and foreign investment in Bromo-Tengger-Semeru:
• Stricter control on tourist activities inside and around the National Park by suppressing illegal travel agencies. At the moment, neither the National Park nor tourism authorities of the surrounding kabupaten are regulating the situation, which causes frustration for tourists. • Oversight and inspections of the existing tourism providers to ensure they have the requisite licenses to operate, follow environmental practices, and have sufficient training to provide professional services.
• Environmental regulations must be enacted and enforced to ensure the fragile ecosystem is safeguarded.
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16.3 SME DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS For forecasts to be met, there must be a significant increase in businesses serving the tourism sector, many of which will be SMEs. They will deliver services supporting the larger investments. To encourage sufficient SME development to meet the demand, the government may need to mobilize assistance specifically targeted at SMEs.
SMEs are integral to the success of a destination, as they play a significant role in creating local employment and engaging local people in the tourism industry, and contributing to long- term and sustainable economic development.
16.3.1 SME: PRODUCTS & SERVICES The following products and services, in line with the vision for future growth, provide opportunities for SMEs to develop in the destination.
• Most SMEs providing accommodations and transportation facilities are focusing on increasing the quantity of their products to meet the increasing arrivals, instead of enhancing the quality of their services. For the long term sustainable success of the destination, a stronger emphasis must be placed on service quality.
• Restaurants and accommodation products targeting the wider needs and preferences of international and domestic guests must be developed.
• Tourist information centers at the entrance gates of the National Park.
• A website containing all useful information about the destination with links to book transportation, accommodation, tours, event tickets, etc.
• Cultural performances by the local Tengger people.
• Multilingual guides.
16.3.2 SME DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS To encourage SMEs to seek new business growth opportunities, many assistance programs and changes from the government are required, including:
• Encouragement and support for the building of guesthouses and homestays in and around the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru area. This includes further training to make the operators market-ready once operating and better able to compete.
• Encourage the locals to establish cultural villages for tourism development.
• Provide training programs to tour guides, homestays, and other tourism entrepreneurs.
• Offer technical help and financial support to set up an online platform in which the SMEs providing tourist services can showcase their products.
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• Provide training to develop the young generation of the Tengger people as cultural ambassadors.
16.4 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT The key recommendations on investment needs for transport infrastructure to support tourism are presented below.
16.4.1 ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE • Surabaya-Pasuruan Road is currently adequate in terms of capacity. However, capacity will need to be improved in the future. The toll road for Surabaya-Gempol has been discontinued at Porong due to a mud flow. However, there is a plan for a new 10 kilometer Porong-Gempol Toll Road. This segment of toll road needs to be regularly maintained and improved. It recommended to extend this toll road to Pasuruan in order to further improve the capacity and travel time to access Bromo- Tengger-Semeru. The proposed toll road should have a capacity of at least 7000 PCU per hour to sufficiently meet future demand.
• Pasuruan–Probolinggo Road is currently inadequate and requires capacity improvement. The new Pasuruan-Probolinggo toll road is currently under construction and its capacity is estimated to meet to the projected increase in traffic volume in the short term.
• Gempol-Malang Road is currently adequate in terms of capacity. However, capacity will need to be improved in the future due to increased traffic volume. The Gempol-Malang toll road is understood to be the committed project and will be adequate to serve the increased traffic volume in the immediate future.
Secondary Roads
The current traffic volume in the secondary access roads to the Bromo-Tengger-Semeru park is quite low and is anticipated to remain low in the future as well. Hence, the capacity of all the roads including Pasaruan-Wonokitri, Probolinggo-Cemoro Luwang, Malang – Tumpang and Ranupani will be adequate for the immediate term, though they will require upgradation in the longer term. However, at present the road widths of these local roads to access the core tourism area needs to be standardized to 6m, in order to provide adequate space for two vehicles to run in opposite directions. All the above mentioned secondary access roads need to be well maintained in terms of pavement conditions targeting for IRI < 4.
16.4.2 AIR TRANSPORT Juanda International Airport is operating beyond its infrastructure capacity and the airport plan will be needed to improve the airport capacity. Abdul Rachman Saleh Airport will have adequate capacity to meet short term demand. However, in the long term, the Airport Master Plan will need to be implemented.
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16.4.3 SEA TRANSPORT Very few visitors are anticipated to access Bromo by cruise. The existing port infrastructure is suitable for a small class cruise ship that can carry roughly 2,100 passengers. Considering the limited demand for cruises, investments in cruise infrastructure will not be the priority for this destination.
16.5 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS Basic infrastructure such as water supply, wastewater and sanitation, and solid waste management is important to protect against unhygienic conditions, which could pose health hazards that also impact tourism development potential. Therefore, ensuring hygienic conditions and a clean environment is a prerequisite for tourism development. Coverage of basic service delivery in Bromo differs between various kabupatens and kecamatans, and improvement and upgrading works are required.
• About 60% of the population at the key tourism kabupatens has access to adequate sanitation, and less than 20% of solid waste generated from the key tourism kabupatens is collected and properly disposed. Conditions of wastewater and sanitation facilities are better at key tourism kecamatans, except Kec. Pasrujambe. Access to adequate sanitation at Kec. Tosari and Kec. Sukapura exceeds 80%, while it is only 45% in Kec. Pasrujambe. The existing gaps have to be closed to promote a healthy living environment. Hence, investments will be needed for improvements in wastewater, sanitation, and solid waste management. • Generally, coverage of piped water supply is low in Bromo, although key tourism kecamatans are relatively better served. Water supply at Bromo is not self-sustaining during peak tourism seasons. Hotels operators are willing and able to pay for high quality service provision from the nearby vicinity. This requires careful and integrated spatial and investment planning in close collaboration with private developers and local communities. Investments are needed to source new raw water sources, including the associated treatment facilities and piping system, especially at Kec. Pasrujambe. • Flood risk is low in Kab. Probolinggo and flooding events that occur in hilly areas of the national park could trigger landslide. Other than upgrading of drainage system, illegal logging and deforestation should be controlled. • Other basic infrastructures, such as for power and telecommunications, need improvement but are not hampering further tourism development.
16.6 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SPATIAL PLANS 16.6.1 EXISTING SPATIAL PLANS AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK To ensure sustainable urban growth and tourism development, it is important to have detailed spatial plans and development guidelines for tourist attractions areas where development pressures are increasing at a rapid pace.
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Indonesia has an established system for spatial planning and most of the destinations have a Spatial Plan for the kabupaten, province or city level. As per the National Spatial Planning Act (Law No. 26/2007 amends Law No. 24/1992), the provincial governments and district governments (kabupaten and kota) are authorized to implement spatial planning. The Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW) and the Rencana Detail Tata Ruang (RDTR) are the two major Spatial Plans prepared at the regional level (province and kabupaten) and local level (kabupaten or Special Areas within kabupaten and kota), respectively.
In general, RTRW serves as the concept level Spatial Plan providing broad directions for provinces or kabupaten; and the RDTR serves as the detailed level Spatial Plan indicating detailed land uses such as residential uses by density, commercial uses, mixed uses, government uses, industrial uses, social facilities, etc., for the kota or other designated areas within the kabupaten.
The RTRW is managed by the provincial or kabupaten level Bappeda. It has been observed that the RTRW is prepared for the time horizon of 20 years. It is important to review the Master Plan considering the changing socio-economic conditions and infrastructure needs, including new tourism targets and plans. As discussed in the previous sections on Transport Infrastructure and Basic Services Infrastructure, there are several individual sector plans being prepared by the respective authorities, some of which are critical, while others are not needed. Based on the infrastructure needs assessment, the critical plans need to be incorporated into the revised RTRW. This will remove duplication and provide unified planning direction to the respective implementing agencies to execute development programmes towards the common vision and goals.
This section assesses the availability of spatial plans and regulations to ensure that the tourism assets are protected. The main tourism asset for Bromo-Tengger-Semeru tourism destination is its cultural and natural environment; as such it is critical to have regulation to ensure protection of the cultural and eco-sensitive areas in all potential tourist attractions. Following is the overview of plans in place for Bromo-Tengger-Semeru.
Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW) Provincial Master Plan 2011-2031
• Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park has a Spatial Concept Plan under the RTRW Provincial Master Plan, which is currently being reviewed. The RTRW of Bromo- Tengger-Semeru National Park indicates 7 broad land uses for its area. These include core protected area, forest area, area for rehabilitation, area for development, area for traditional uses, area for special uses and area for religious uses. • The RTRW is being reviewed considering the recent development trends in some locations. At the same time, it is also looking at the possibility of identifying areas for developing tourism infrastructure. • Badan Otorita Bromo (Integrated Authority for Bromo) is being formed to oversee the development of tourism in Bromo crater and the surrounding area. Once formed, the authority will need to develop an integrated plan in anticipation of increased tourist arrivals in Bromo.
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• The Bromo Integrated Development Authority (BIDA) boundaries will cover areas outside the national park boundary to support the tourism activities around Bromo. The boundary will include areas where tourism facilities, such as hotel and home-stays, are available today, and where they would potentially be available in the future, such as Cemoro Lawang in Probolingo, Wonokitri in Pasuruan and Klakah in Malang Regency. It is anticipated that the integrated plan will be able to balance tourism development with environmental protection in Bromo.
16.6.2 GAPS & NEEDS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN SPATIAL PLANNING FRAMEWORK Figure 74 summarizes key gaps and improvements needed in the spatial planning framework for Bromo-Tengger-Semeru.
FIGURE 74: GAPS IN SPATIAL PLANNING FRAMEWORK, BROMO TENGGER SMERU Existing Plans Assessment Gaps /Needs for Improvement Broad Spatial Concept Plans - The RTRW Province - RTRW for BTS National Park - RTRW Provincial Master Plan is currently needs to be reviewed based on Master Plan being reviewed. the tourism demand, rationalized infrastructure needs, and detailed socio- economic assessments. Detailed Spatial Master Plans - No approved RDTR for - There will be no need for BTSNP and surrounding detailed Master Plan (RDTR) area. for BTSNP Area. RDTR will be - The areas around BTSNP needed for other supporting are not expected to be accommodation areas including too urbanized. Cemoro Lawang (Kecamatan Sukapura), Wonokitri (Kecamatan Tosari), and Kecamatan Pasrujambe.
• RTRW Provincial Master Plan was prepared for the planning horizon of 2011–2031 and provides broad direction for spatial development. It is currently being reviewed and it is important for it to be updated in line with tourism demand and related infrastructure needs of the BTS tourism destination, and other socio-economic considerations. The reviewed RTRW will help to establish common goals for all implementing agencies to execute their respective sector development plans. • Since very little urbanization is expected in areas around BTSNP, the RTRW providing broad directions for spatial planning will be adequate for most of the BTSNP and surrounding areas. However, RDTR is needed for Cemoro Lawang (Kecamatan Sukapura), Wonokitri (Kecamatan Tosari), and Kecamatan Pasrujambe. These areas are located outside the National Park, and are expected to grow into resort villages.
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APPENDIX I: SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
The methodology for evaluating the tourism potential of Bromo-Tengger-Semeru presented in this report has been developed using both primary fieldwork research and existing statistics. Quantitative data were provided by different government offices, while interviews provided qualitative information for the research. The source of primary and secondary data are referenced in the report and listed in the section below. However, in some cases the information presented is a product of experience and observation prior to and during the fieldwork, and as such it is not specifically attributed by source.
INTERVIEWS
Interviews were conducted with various government offices at central as well as provincial & kabupaten level. The interviews helped to gain a better understanding of tourism development and the investment process in Indonesia and Bromo-Tengger-Semeru.
• Central Government
- Badan Pusat Statistik
- BKPM, Jakarta
- Profil Kesehatan of each Kabupaten
- Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)
- Sanitasi Total Berbasis Masyarakat (STBM)
- Bappenas
- Kementerian Pariwisata (International marketing, domestic marketing, investment, transport liaison, marketing communications)
- Kawasan Economi Khusus, Jakarta
• Bromo, Tengger, Semeru (Provincial & Kabupaten)
- Tourism Authorities of Kab. Malang and kab. Probolinggo - Malang Regency Development Planning Agency (Bappeda) - Pasuruan Regency Development Planning Agency (Bappeda) - Probolinggo Regency Tourism Department - National Park Authority Bromo-Tengger-Semeru
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• Investment sentiment is gleaned from interviews with existing and potential tourism investors. The investors chosen had interests in various tourism-related assets including hotels, restaurants, ground transportation and travel agencies. The questions were aimed at gathering their thoughts on the pros and cons of SEZs, the tourism investment climate in Indonesia, the future of tourism investment and possible investment in Bromo, Tengger, Semeru. A total of 6 potential and existing domestic investors were interviewed, as well as 25 international investors from the current key arrivals source markets of Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore.
• Tour operators/travel agents:
- Local: Bromo and Jakarta (including Helios Transport, Bromo Holiday); and
- Foreign (total of 41): from the current key arrivals source markets of Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore as well as France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
• Hotels including Jiwa Jawa Resort, Menterai homestay, Savana Hotel & Convention, Best Western OJ.
STATISTICS
Quantitative data obtained from existing reports and surveys provide numerical information and allow statistical analysis of Indonesia’s and Bromo-Tengger-Semeru’s tourism demand.
• BPS Accommodation Survey for the east Java Province, with results available at Regency Level
• BPS Domestic Survey, with results available only at Province Level
• BPS Exist survey with results available only at Province Level
• BPS Census on population
• Statistics of Bromo-Tengger-Semeru National Park
• Pelindo III Cruise statistics
• Reviews on TripAdvisor Website
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APPENDIX II: AIRPORT RUNWAY CAPACITY ANALYISIS
Runway Capacity Since Abdul Rachman airport does not have a parallel taxiway similar to Halim Airport in Jakarta, landing aircrafts need to run up to the end of the runway, turn at the turn pad and taxi along the runway up to the exit taxiway. Similarly, departing aircrafts will taxi along the runway, turn at the turn pad and start for take-off. Since departing and landing aircrafts occupy the runway for a long time, the runway capacity decreases.
As shown in figure, the runway occupancy time by landing and departing aircrafts is calculated at approximately 460 seconds. As a result, assuming that the situation in which a departing aircraft follows a landing aircraft is continuous, the hourly runway capacity is calculated at approximately 16 movements.
Single Runway Occupancy Time
Source: Survey from Halim Airport Runway Occupancy Time (JICA, 2012) The estimated capacity of the existing single runway is approximately 16 movements. As the estimated annual passengers handled are less than 1 million, the Abdul Rachman airport can be categorized as a small airport.
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APPENDIX III: ROAD CAPACITY ANALYISIS 2015
Section Road Length Carriageway Type Co Fcw FCsp FCsf FCcs C ADT PCU Peak VCR 1 FROM SURABAYA - PASURUAN 010 BTS. KOTA SURABAYA - WARU 0.81 19.90 6/2 D 11400 1 1 0.89 1.04 10,552 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.16 010 JLN. DEMAK (SURABAYA) 2.49 9.92 2/2 UD 3100 1.25 1 0.89 1.04 3,587 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.46 010 JLN. KALIBUTUH (SURABAYA) 0.83 18.00 6/2 D 11400 1 1 0.89 1.04 10,552 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.16 010 JLN. ARJUNO (SURABAYA) 1.44 11.06 6/2 D 11400 1 1 0.92 1.04 10,908 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.15 010 JLN. PASAR K EMBANG (SURABAYA) 0.75 11.30 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.23 010 JLN. DIPONEGORO (SURABAYA) 2.7 11.24 4/2 D 7600 1.34 1 0.89 1.04 9,426 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.18 010 JLN. WONOKROMO (SURABAYA) 1.16 11.64 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.23 010 JLN. LAYANG WONOKROMO (SURABAYA) 0.59 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.56 010 JLN. AHMAD YANI (SURABAYA) 4.85 21.00 6/2 D 11400 1 1 0.92 1.04 10,908 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.15 010 JLN. LAYANG WARU 0.53 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 10,496 16,629 1,663 0.56 012 WARU - BTS. KOTA SIDOARJO 5.82 9.24 2/2 UD 3100 1.25 1 0.92 1.04 3,708 60,205 89,774 8,977 2.42 012 JLN. RM. MANGUN DIPROJO (SIDOARJO) 2.74 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 60,205 89,774 8,977 1.23 012 JLN. JENGGOLO (SIDOARJO) 1.34 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 60,205 89,774 8,977 1.23 012 JLN. A. YANI (SIDOARJO) 0.91 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 60,205 89,774 8,977 1.23 012 JLN. GAJAH MADA (SIDOARJO) 0.95 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 60,205 89,774 8,977 1.23 012 JLN. MOJOPAHIT (SIDOARJO) 1.19 14.00 4/2 D 6800 0.92 1 0.92 1.04 5,986 60,205 89,774 8,977 1.50 014 JLN. LAYANG SIDOARJO 0.62 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 60,205 89,774 8,977 1.23 015 BTS. KOTA SIDOARJO - GEMPOL 7.27 12.84 4/2 D 3100 1.34 1 0.89 1.04 3,845 9,205 13,416 1,342 0.35 015 JLN. GATOT SUBROTO (SIDOARJO) 0.35 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 9,205 13,416 1,342 0.18 015 JLN. SUNANDAR P. SUDARMO (SIDOARJO) 1.18 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1.04 1 0.92 1.04 7,563 9,205 13,416 1,342 0.18 015 JLN. CANDI (SIDOARJO) 1.31 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1.04 1 0.92 1.04 7,563 9,205 13,416 1,342 0.18 016 GEMPOL - BTS. KOTA BANGIL 22.66 9.52 2/2 UD 3100 1.25 1 0.92 1.04 3,708 36,359 44,807 4,481 1.21 016 JLN. PATTIMURA (BANGIL) 1.53 11.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 36,359 44,807 4,481 0.62 016 JLN. A. YANI (BANGIL) 0.53 13.00 4/2 UD 6800 0.92 1 0.92 1.04 5,986 36,359 44,807 4,481 0.75 016 JLN. UNTUNG SUROPATI (BANGIL) 0.56 12.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 36,359 44,807 4,481 0.62 016 JLN. JAKSA AGUNG SUPRAPTO (BANGIL) 0.39 10.00 2/2 UD 7600 1.29 1 0.92 1.04 9,380 36,359 44,807 4,481 0.48 016 JLN. DR. SUTOMO (BANGIL) 0.57 13.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 36,359 44,807 4,481 0.62
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Section Road Length Carriageway Type Co Fcw FCsp FCsf FCcs C ADT PCU Peak VCR 016 JLN. KARTINI (BANGIL) 1.14 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 36,359 44,807 4,481 0.62 016 JLN. GAJAH MADA (BANGIL) 0.36 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.98 1.04 3,160 36,359 44,807 4,481 1.42 016 JLN. DIPONEGORO (BANGIL) 0.37 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 36,359 44,807 4,481 1.51 017 BTS. KOTA BANGIL - BTS. KOTA PASURUAN 8.37 13.56 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 24,223 31,984 3,198 0.44 017 JLN. SOEKARNO-HATTA (PASURUAN) 2.9 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 24,223 31,984 3,198 0.44 018 JLN. KRAMPYANGAN - BAKALAN (PASURUAN) 0.89 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 24,223 31,984 3,198 1.08 018 JLN. HOS. COKROAMINOTO (PASURUAN) 2.29 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 24,223 31,984 3,198 1.08 018 JLN. OTTO ISKANDARDINATA (PASURUAN) 0.64 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 1 1.04 3,224 24,223 31,984 3,198 0.99 2 FROM PASURUAN - PROBOLINGGO 019 BTS. KAB. PASURUAN - PILANG (BTS. KOTA P 11.85 7.11 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 1 1.04 3,224 23,162 38,156 3,816 1.18 020 JLN. SOEKARNO-HATTA (PILANG - PROBOLINGG 3.45 9.00 2/2 UD 3100 1.25 1 0.92 1.04 3,708 22,528 36,712 3,671 0.99 020 JLN. P. SUDIRMAN (PILANG - PROBOLINGGO) 3.01 17.00 6/2 D 11400 1 1 0.92 1.04 10,908 22,528 36,712 3,671 0.34 3 FROM GEMPOL - MALANG 094 GEMPOL - PANDAAN 12.27 13.98 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 28,923 34,408 3,441 0.47 095 JLN. LINGKAR PANDAAN BY PASS 1.95 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 28,923 34,408 3,441 0.47 096 PANDAAN - PURWOSARI 15.14 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 17,631 24,748 2,475 0.34 097 PURWOSARI - PURWODADI 3.78 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 16,027 21,253 2,125 0.29 098 PURWODADI - BTS. KAB. MALANG 3.4 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 65,880 65,882 6,588 0.91 099 BTS. KAB. PASURUAN - KARANGLO 12.53 12.40 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 20,425 25,248 2,525 0.35 100 KARANGLO - BTS. KOTA MALANG 0.64 16.00 6/2 D 11400 1 1 0.92 1.04 10,908 38,006 49,899 4,990 0.46 100 JLN. A. YANI (MALANG) 0.99 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 38,006 49,899 4,990 0.69 101 JLN. LAYANG LAWANG 0.72 14.00 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 38,006 49,899 4,990 0.69 4 FROM PROBOLINGGO - LUMAJANG 103 BTS. KOTA PROBOLINGGO - BTS. KAB. LUMAJA 13.39 7.10 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 5,944 9,810 981 0.33 103 JLN. BROMO (PROBOLINGGO) 10.78 7.65 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 5,944 9,810 981 0.33 103 JLN. IR. SUTAMI (PROBOLINGGO) 2.51 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 5,944 9,810 981 0.33 103 JLN. HAMKA (PROBOLINGGO) 5.03 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 5,944 9,810 981 0.33 103 JLN. HASAN GENGGONG (PROBOLINGGO) 4.72 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 5,944 9,810 981 0.33 104 BTS. KAB. PROBOLINGGO - GROBOGAN 12.82 7.63 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 5,954 9,820 982 0.33 105 GROBOGAN - WONOREJO 7.42 6.39 2/2 UD 3100 0.87 1 0.92 1.04 2,580 8,001 12,624 1,262 0.49 063 JLN. IMAM BONJOL (LUMAJANG) 0.4 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 3,561 7,347 735 0.25 063 JLN. BRIGJEN SLAMET RIADI (LUMAJANG) 1.51 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 3,561 7,347 735 0.25
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BROMO, TENGGER, SEMERU: MARKET ANALYSIS AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT: SELECTION # 1223583
Section Road Length Carriageway Type Co Fcw FCsp FCsf FCcs C ADT PCU Peak VCR 063 JLN. JEND. GATOT SUBROTO (LUMAJANG) 1.81 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 3,561 7,347 735 0.25 063 JLN. SUNANDAR P. SUDARMO (LUMAJANG) 1.18 7.00 2/2 UD 3100 1 1 0.92 1.04 2,966 3,561 7,347 735 0.25 063 JLN. SOEKARNO-HATTA (LUMAJANG-WONOREJO) 2.92 11.60 4/2 D 7600 1 1 0.92 1.04 7,272 10,492 17,488 1,749 0.24
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