BROMO, TENGGER, SEMERU (EAST JAVA) BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY, MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS, AND INVESTMENT NEEDS MARKET ANALYIS AND DEMAND ASSESSMENTS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED TOURISM DESTINATIONS ACROSS INDONESIA WORLD BANK SELECTION # 1223583 (2016-2017) ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PREPARED BY: FOR: WITH SUPPORT FROM: This work is a product of external contributions supervised by The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. This publication has been funded by the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the Australian Government through the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Swiss Confederation through the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The views expressed in this publication are the author’s alone and are not necessarily the views of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Australian Government and the Swiss Confederation. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY 4 1. DESTINATION CHARACTERISTICS 5 1.1 GEOGRAPHY 5 1.2 CLIMATE 8 1.3 NATURAL AND/OR CULTURAL RESOURCES 8 2. DESTINATION DEFINITION 12 2.1 KEY ATTRACTIONS 12 2.2 CONCLUSIONS ON DESTINATION DEFINITION 13 3. VISITOR ARRIVAL DEMOGRAPHICS 14 3.1 LEVEL OF CURRENT DEMAND 14 3.2 SEASONALITY OF VISITS 15 3.3 ORIGIN OF THE VISITORS 15 3.4 PURPOSE OF VISIT 16 3.5 LOCATION OF ACCOMMODATION USED AND LENGTH OF STAY 17 3.6 INTEGRATION OF THE DESTINATION IN TOURISM CIRCUITS 18 3.7 AWARENESS AND IMAGE OF THE DESTINATION AMONG INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 19 3.8 TOURISM PROMOTION/DESTINATION MARKETING 21 4. ACCESSIBILITY HIGHLIGHTS 22 4.1 EXISTING MODE OF TRAVEL AND VISITORS’ MOVEMENT 22 4.2 ENTRANCE GATES TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU NATIONAL PARK 22 5. HOTEL & LODGING OPTIONS (AMENITIES) 24 5.1 VOLUME & NUMBER OF ROOMS 24 5.2 HOTEL MARKET TIERS 25 5.3 PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES BY TIER 25 5.4 HOTEL FACILITIES & QUALITY 26 6. SMES: SUPPORTING TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES) 28 6.1 INDEPENDENT FOOD & BEVERAGE 28 6.2 TRAVEL AGENCIES 28 7. INVESTMENT ANALYSIS 30 7.1 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) 30 7.2 DOMESTIC DIRECT INVESTMENT (DDI) 30 7.3 ASSET CLASSES & SCALE (EXISTING & PIPELINE) 31 7.4 KEY PLAYERS/INVESTORS 31 7.5 INVESTMENT SENTIMENT: DOMESTIC & FOREIGN INVESTORS 31 7.6 FINANCE 32 7.7 STEPS TO OPENING A BUSINESS 32 8. SKILLS ASSESSMENT 34 8.1 WHAT SKILLS EXIST? 34 8.2 WHAT ARE THE SKILLS GAPS? 34 8.3 TRAINING SCHOOLS 35 DESTINATION SWOT & VISION 36 9. DESTINATION SWOT 37 9.1 STRENGTHS 37 9.2 WEAKNESSES 37 9.3 OPPORTUNITIES 38 9.4 THREATS 38 10. DESTINATION VISION STATEMENT 39 10.1 UNIQUE SELLING POINTS 39 10.2 PRODUCTS AND ACCOMMODATION TO BE DEVELOPED 39 MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS 41 11. FUTURE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS 42 11.1 QUANTITATIVE APPROACH 42 INVESTMENT NEEDS 44 12. AMENITIES: KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 45 12.1 HOTEL PIPELINE & FACILITIES DEVELOPMENT 45 12.2 FORECAST OF FUTURE ACCOMMODATION NEEDS 45 12.3 OTHER TOURISM FACILITIES 45 13. STAFF REQUIRED & SKILLS NEEDED 47 13.1 ACCOMMODATION STAFF REQUIRED 47 13.2 ADDITIONAL STAFF REQUIRED 47 14. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BASELINE & NEEDS 49 BASELINE 49 14.1 ROAD TRANSPORT 49 14.2 RAILWAY TRANSPORT 54 14.3 AIR TRANSPORT 54 14.4 SEA TRANSPORT 61 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS 62 14.5 MARKET SHARE OF VISITORS 62 14.6 ROAD TRANSPORT NEEDS 62 14.7 RAILWAY TRANSPORT 63 14.8 AIR TRANSPORT NEEDS 64 14.9 SEA TRANSPORT NEEDS 66 15. BASIC CAPACITY INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES) 67 BASELINE 67 15.1 BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES 67 15.2 WATER SUPPLY 67 15.3 WASTEWATER AND SANITATION 68 15.4 DRAINAGE 69 15.5 SOLID WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE 70 15.6 POWER SUPPLY 71 15.7 TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE 72 15.8 SUMMARY OF EXISTING BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE 73 BASIC CAPACITY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS 74 15.9 FORECAST POPULATION & VISITOR ARRIVALS 74 15.10 WATER SUPPLY 75 15.11 WASTEWATER AND SANITATION 78 15.12 DRAINAGE 80 15.13 SOLID WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE 80 15.14 POWER SUPPLY 83 15.15 TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE 85 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 86 16. WHAT WILL TRIGGER INVESTMENT? 87 16.1 RECOMMENDATIONS ON DESTINATION ENHANCEMENTS 87 16.2 LEGAL & REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT ENHANCEMENTS 87 16.3 SME DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS 88 16.4 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT 89 16.5 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS 90 16.6 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SPATIAL PLANS 90 APPENDIX I: SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED 93 APPENDIX II: AIRPORT RUNWAY CAPACITY ANALYISIS 95 APPENDIX III: ROAD CAPACITY ANALYISIS 2015 96 TABLE OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: LOCATION OF 10 PRIORITY TOURISM DESTINATIONS IN INDONESIA 2 FIGURE 2: MAJOR ATTRACTIONS IN BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU 6 FIGURE 3: LOCATIONS OF MAJOR CITIES SURROUNDING BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU - KOTA MALANG, KOTA PROBOLINGGO AND KOTA PASURUAN 7 FIGURE 4: AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OF MOUNT BROMO 8 FIGURE 5: MAP OF NATURAL, CULTURAL, AND SPECIAL INTEREST TOURIST ATTRACTIONS IN BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU AND SURROUNDING AREAS 9 FIGURE 6: PANORAMIC VIEW OF MT BROMO AND MT BATOK FROM THE EDGE OF "SEA OF SANDS" 9 FIGURE 7: EXAMPLES OF THE FLORA AND FAUNA IN BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU 10 FIGURE 8: POTEN TEMPLE AND TENGGER SAND SEA 11 FIGURE 9: ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU, 2011-2015 14 FIGURE 10: MONTHLY ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU, 2015 15 FIGURE 11: GROWTH IN ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU, 2011-2015 16 FIGURE 12: PLACES ASSOCIATED WITH BROMO IN PACKAGES OFFERED BY INTERVIEWED TOUR OPERATORS AND TRAVEL AGENCIES IN SELECTED INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 18 FIGURE 13: NUMBER OF REVIEWS AND SATISFACTION INDEX ON TRIP ADVISOR FOR THE MOST POPULAR VOLCANOES IN INDONESIA 20 FIGURE 14: DESTINATION REASONS FOR SATISFACTION AND DISSATISFACTION IN USER- GENERATED CONTENT ON TRIP ADVISOR 20 FIGURE 15: DESTINATION REASONS FOR SATISFACTION AND DISSATISFACTION ACCORDING TO TOUR OPERATORS AND TRAVEL AGENTS IN SELECTED MARKETS 21 FIGURE 16: PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL ARRIVALS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU THROUGH RESPECTIVE ENTRANCE GATES, 2014 23 FIGURE 17: BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU TOURISM DESTINATION AND VISITORS’ MOVEMENT 23 FIGURE 18: NUMBER OF HOTELS AND ACCOMMODATIONS IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2011 TO 2015 24 FIGURE 19: NUMBER OF ROOMS IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2011 TO 2015 24 FIGURE 20: NUMBER OF STAR RATED HOTELS BY CATEGORIES, 2015 25 FIGURE 21: NUMBER OF RESTAURANTS IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2015 28 FIGURE 22: NUMBER OF TRAVEL COMPANIES AND TRAVEL AGENCIES IN MALANG, PASURUAN, PROBOLINGGO, AND LUMAJANG, 2015 28 FIGURE 23: REALIZED FDI ON HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS IN EAST JAVA, 2010 TO Q2 2016 30 FIGURE 24: REALISED DDI ON HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS IN EAST JAVA, 2010 TO 2016 Q2 30 FIGURE 25: FORECAST OF VISITOR ARRIVALS TO MOUNT BROMO 2015-2041 42 FIGURE 26: FORECAST OF VISITOR GUEST NIGHTS AND EXPENDITURE IN BROMO TENGGER SEMURU, 2015-2041 43 FIGURE 27: NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL ROOMS REQUIRED 2015-2041 45 FIGURE 28: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL STAFF BY HOTEL CATEGORY 48 FIGURE 29: ROAD CLASS AND CONDITION AT EAST JAVA 49 FIGURE 30: ROAD CLASS AND CONDITION IN EAST JAVA 50 FIGURE 31: ROAD ACCESS TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU 51 FIGURE 32: REGIONAL ROAD TRAFFIC TO BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU 52 FIGURE 33: ROAD ACCESS GAPS TO MAJOR TOURISM DESTINATIONS 52 FIGURE 34: EAST JAVA TOLL ROAD PLAN 53 FIGURE 35: STATUS OF TOLL ROAD PLAN 53 FIGURE 36: AIR TRANSPORT DEMAND 55 FIGURE 37: AIRPORT FACILITIES AT JUANDA AND ABDUL RACHMAN 56 FIGURE 38: JUANDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 57 FIGURE 39: EXISTING GAPS IN AIRPORT FACILITIES AT JUANDA AIRPORT 57 FIGURE 40: ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT 58 FIGURE 41: EXISTING GAPS IN AIRPORT FACILITIES AT ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT 59 FIGURE 42: FUTURE PLAN OF JUANDA AIRPORT 59 FIGURE 43: ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT MASTER PLAN 60 FIGURE 44: NEW TANJUNG TEMBAGA PORT LAYOUT 61 FIGURE 45: NEW TANJUNG TEMBAGA PORT FACILITIES 61 FIGURE 46: JUANDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT – INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS 65 FIGURE 47: ABDUL RACHMAN SALEH AIRPORT – INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS 66 FIGURE 48: BROMO-TENGGER-SEMERU TOURISM DESTINATION AND KEY ATTRACTIONS 67 FIGURE 49: EXISTING COVERAGE OF PDAM WATER SUPPLY 68 FIGURE 50: EXISTING COVERAGE OF ADEQUATE SANITATION 69 FIGURE 51: FLOOD DISASTER RISK INDEX MAP 70 FIGURE 52: PROCEDURE OF SOLID WASTE COLLECTION AND DISPOSAL 70 FIGURE 53: EXISTING COVERAGE OF SUSTAINABLE SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT 71 FIGURE 54: POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM IN EAST JAVA 72 FIGURE 55: EXISTING COVERAGE OF POWER SUPPLY NETWORK 72 FIGURE 56: SUMMARY OF EXISTING BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT 73 FIGURE 57: FORECAST OF POPULATION 75 FIGURE 58: FORECAST OF COMMERCIAL ROOMS REQUIRED 75 FIGURE 59: WATER DEMAND PROJECTION (L/S) 76 FIGURE 60: SUMMARY OF WATER DEMAND PROJECTION (L/S) 76 FIGURE 61: ESTIMATED WATER DEMAND RATIO 76 FIGURE 62: WATER CONSUMPTION RATE 77 FIGURE 63: SEWAGE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/S)* 78 FIGURE 64: SUMMARY OF SEWAGE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/S) 79 FIGURE 65: ESTIMATED SEWAGE GENERATION RATIO 79 FIGURE 66: SOLID WASTE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/DAY) 80 FIGURE 67: SUMMARY OF SEWAGE GENERATION PROJECTION (L/DAY) 81 FIGURE 68: ESTIMATED SOLID WASTE GENERATION RATIO 81 FIGURE 69: RATE OF SOLID WASTE GENERATION 81 FIGURE 70: POWER DEMAND PROJECTION (MWH) 83 FIGURE 71: SUMMARY OF POWER DEMAND PROJECTION (MWH) 83 FIGURE 72: ESTIMATED POWER DEMAND RATIO 83 FIGURE 73: POWER CONSUMPTION RATE 84 FIGURE 74: GAPS IN SPATIAL PLANNING FRAMEWORK, BROMO TENGGER SMERU 92 BROMO, TENGGER, SEMERU: MARKET ANALYSIS AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT: SELECTION # 1223583 INTRODUCTION The Government of Indonesia in the National Medium-Term Development Plan (Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional, RPJMN) 2015 to 2019, has set a number of objectives to increase the role of tourism in the Indonesian economy.