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Of Training Humans for Commercial Suborbital Spaceflight IAC-13-E6.2.3 THE “GAME” OF TRAINING HUMANS FOR COMMERCIAL SUBORBITAL SPACEFLIGHT Brienna L. Henwood Director of Space Training and Research, NASTAR Center, United States, [email protected] Co-Authors: Nathan Wong, John Stark, Ken Davidian, Brad Cheetham, Kaizad Raimalwala, Matt Cannella, Liz Kennick, Sirisha Bandla, Jules Feldhacker, Jim Crowell. Game theory is the study of strategic decision making. When used as a lens through which to view the commercial suborbital human spaceflight training industry, it becomes clear that finding the right strategies to make the right decisions is key in supporting the goals of the training industry which include protection of human health and safety, managing customer and operator expectations, and facilitating an industry of education, collaboration, and growth for commercial suborbital human spaceflight. Industry structure models such as PARTS (based on game theory) suggest that gaining competitive advantages in business doesn’t come from playing the game differently; it comes from changing the game itself. If we understand how to assess, challenge, and change the individual PARTS (players, added values, rules, tactics, and scope) of the game, we may discover ways to facilitate new entrants, opportunities, and outcomes. These opportunities could support training industry goals, as well as could bolster government, private, and individual long-term success of the commercial spaceflight industry as a whole. I. INTRODUCTION sector launches, reentries, and associated services,’’ It has been noted that ‘‘U.S. policymakers, [Title 51 US Code Subtitle V,x50901(a)(7)] the particularly at the state and local levels, have been analysis described in this article was conducted as groping toward an explicit entrepreneurship policy one of a series of reports that attempt to address the for at least a couple of decades. Their experiments lack of a ‘‘grand theoretical design’’ by using well- have typically been pragmatic, inspired by immediate established, academically based economic theory of needs and pressures and by one another’s examples, industry dynamics, applied to the different segments rather than by a grand theoretical design.’’[1] of the emerging commercial space transportation Space policy and acquisition strategies of the industry,[3–10] to complement data-rich analyses of U.S. government (USG), aimed at commercial similar market segments [11]. development and stimulation of innovations, have Taken together, analyses based in data and been inspired and executed in a similar fashion. This theory can be a powerful tool with which policy, approach, however, is not unusual. ‘‘We train business, and acquisition decision-makers should be managers and do research about management [with] working. An analysis of this nature is intended to be a the belief that decisions should be grounded in a solid starting point for more in-depth discussions among analysis of data.’’[2] But analyses that are based on interested members of the industry with well-defined, data alone ‘‘rely on an implicit theory: The past is a baseline structure and vocabulary to facilitate a better good predictor of the future.’’[2] understanding and comprehension of the observations In fact, the basis of the emerging commercial and serve as a tool to employ tactics. space transportation industry is an assumption that This is an analysis of the Suborbital Human the future will not be a repeat of the past, so an Spaceflight Training (SHST) industry segment using alternative to analyses based primarily on data is an industry model called PARTS [12], developed in highly desirable. However, the role of data-based the field of game theory [13]. The SHST is tasked analyses should not be discounted. Although ‘‘[g]ood with human health, safety, and training-related theory provides a robust way to understand important endeavors that support commercial suborbital flights developments, even when data is limited. Theory is - or spaceflight which reaches space, but does not even more helpful when there is an abundance of complete one orbital revolution, and the greater data’’ and ‘‘[t]heory helps to block out the noise and commercial spaceflight industry. Using the PARTS to amplify the signal.’’[2] industry model, the SHST industry is broken into five In support of the Federal Aviation components, the first letter of each designated by a Administration (FAA) Office of Commercial Space letter in the acronym, including the players, added Transportation’s (AST) goal to ‘‘encourage private value, rules, tactics (to create, maintain and manage 1 perceptions), and scope. The initial industry II.II Game Theory PARTS Industry Model component, players, is itself broken into five Game Theory is an innovation model that has components: the industry (in this case, SHST), been a pivotal tool, going back as far as the 1930’s, competitors, complementors, suppliers and for understanding the modern business world. The customers. movie "A Beautiful Mind" in 2001 popularized game The researchers performing this study were part theory and modeled the character after John Nash, of the third Emerging Space Industry Leaders (ESIL- one of the three pioneers in game theory—John Nash, 03) workshop, supported by the FAA Center of John Harsanyi, and Reinhart Selten—who were Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation awarded a Nobel Prize for their findings in 1994. (COE CST). In game theory, it is said that “what you get The first section of this report provides depends on your power in the game as well as on the background information of the ESIL workshops and power of others who have competing claims on the the game theory industry structure model called pie”[12]. In order to join the game or change the PARTS. game in any way, you need to play the game The second section of this report is the analysis differently. This is done by looking analytically at the of the SHST industry segment using the PARTS game and its players, and altering one or more of its model, defining the five subcomponents of the elements. One strategy used to change the game, is industry players, followed by the other four known as the PARTS strategy (players, added values, components of the industry model. rules, tactics, and scope), which this paper will Finally, the paper concludes with a section of discuss. summary and results. This is an analysis of the Suborbital Human Spaceflight Training (SHST) industry segment using II. BACKGROUND an industry model called PARTS [12] developed in II.I ESIL Workshops the field of game theory [13]. In this model, the The Emerging Space Industry Leaders (ESIL) industry is broken into five components, the first refers to a group of budding industry professionals. letter of each designated by a letter in the acronym, ESIL workshops are supported by the FAA Center of including the players, added value, rules, tactics (to Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation create, maintain and manage perceptions), and (COE CST) at which outreach and education training scope. Descriptions of each component and are provided with the goal of analyzing specific subcomponent is given below. segments of the emerging commercial space industry. This paper is the result of the third ESIL workshop Players (ESIL-03) which focused on using game theory The initial industry component, players, is itself techniques to address the training challenges within broken into five components: the suborbital human the commercial spaceflight industry, which is tasked spaceflight training industry (in this case, SHST), with sending hundreds of thousands of people into competitors, complementors, suppliers and customers space for the first time in history. (figure 1). Together, these five groups of actors are Two previous ESIL workshops were conducted referred to as the Value Net. Each of these is and focused on different industry structure models described below. including Michael Porter’s Industry Structural Analysis [14] which was discussed at ESIL-01, and The Company (or, in this case, the Industry the appropriate role of government in the Segment): This is the central focal point of the Value development of the emerging commercial space Net and typically is described as a company. In this industry [15] discussed at ESIL-02. More details analysis, ESIL-03 participants selected the SHST from each of the first three ESIL workshops can be industry segment to be the central player. found on the web1. Customers: The customer or “trainee” as defined by the suborbital human spaceflight training industry 2 ESIL-01: includes individuals that participate in an educational http://commercialspace.pbworks.com/w/page/47362858/ES andphysical, hands-on training program for the IL-01%20Files purposes of comprehensively understanding or ESIL-02: preparing for a suborbital space flight. Customers http://commercialspace.pbworks.com/w/page/52219771/ES may have objectives or tasks they wish to perform IL-02%20Files during the flight, and if allowed, can be trained for in ESIL-03: the safest and most authentic manner possible. http://commercialspace.pbworks.com/w/page/58895071/ES IL-03%20Files 2 Suppliers: Suppliers in the SHST industry industry, it is very hard for any member or industry include are organizations which provide support and component to extract more value from the market solutions to the Company in its goalto help the than the amount of added value it contributes in the spaceflight traveler maintain his or her safety and first place. health, meet personal or mission-based objectives in space, and support overall enjoyment of the Rules spaceflight [16]. Suppliers can be curriculum The rules of the game refer to the external and developers, equipment providers, or providers of internal constructs of the training industry which plans, devices, and expertise. Examples of suppliers allow the game to be played. External rules can can include: Medical Health & Assessment, Pre- involve overall funding mechanisms (i.e. such as flight Fitness, Physical Spaceflight Training, Life government contracts, corporate contracts, and Support Services & Equipment, and Operations, individual sale of goods/services), as well as Procedures & Mission Specific Flight Training.
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