IAC-13-E6.2.3

THE “GAME” OF TRAINING HUMANS FOR COMMERCIAL SUBORBITAL

Brienna L. Henwood Director of Space Training and Research, NASTAR Center, United States, [email protected]

Co-Authors: Nathan Wong, John Stark, Ken Davidian, Brad Cheetham, Kaizad Raimalwala, Matt Cannella, Liz Kennick, Sirisha Bandla, Jules Feldhacker, Jim Crowell.

Game theory is the study of strategic decision making. When used as a lens through which to view the commercial suborbital training industry, it becomes clear that finding the right strategies to make the right decisions is key in supporting the goals of the training industry which include protection of human health and safety, managing customer and operator expectations, and facilitating an industry of education, collaboration, and growth for commercial suborbital human spaceflight. Industry structure models such as PARTS (based on game theory) suggest that gaining competitive advantages in business doesn’t come from playing the game differently; it comes from changing the game itself. If we understand how to assess, challenge, and change the individual PARTS (players, added values, rules, tactics, and scope) of the game, we may discover ways to facilitate new entrants, opportunities, and outcomes. These opportunities could support training industry goals, as well as could bolster government, private, and individual long-term success of the commercial spaceflight industry as a whole.

I. INTRODUCTION sector launches, reentries, and associated services,’’ It has been noted that ‘‘U.S. policymakers, [Title 51 US Code Subtitle V,x50901(a)(7)] the particularly at the state and local levels, have been analysis described in this article was conducted as groping toward an explicit entrepreneurship policy one of a series of reports that attempt to address the for at least a couple of decades. Their experiments lack of a ‘‘grand theoretical design’’ by using well- have typically been pragmatic, inspired by immediate established, academically based economic theory of needs and pressures and by one another’s examples, industry dynamics, applied to the different segments rather than by a grand theoretical design.’’[1] of the emerging commercial space transportation and acquisition strategies of the industry,[3–10] to complement data-rich analyses of U.S. government (USG), aimed at commercial similar market segments [11]. development and stimulation of innovations, have Taken together, analyses based in data and been inspired and executed in a similar fashion. This theory can be a powerful tool with which policy, approach, however, is not unusual. ‘‘We train business, and acquisition decision-makers should be managers and do research about management [with] working. An analysis of this nature is intended to be a the belief that decisions should be grounded in a solid starting point for more in-depth discussions among analysis of data.’’[2] But analyses that are based on interested members of the industry with well-defined, data alone ‘‘rely on an implicit theory: The past is a baseline structure and vocabulary to facilitate a better good predictor of the future.’’[2] understanding and comprehension of the observations In fact, the basis of the emerging commercial and serve as a tool to employ tactics. space transportation industry is an assumption that This is an analysis of the Suborbital Human the future will not be a repeat of the past, so an Spaceflight Training (SHST) industry segment using alternative to analyses based primarily on data is an industry model called PARTS [12], developed in highly desirable. However, the role of data-based the field of game theory [13]. The SHST is tasked analyses should not be discounted. Although ‘‘[g]ood with human health, safety, and training-related theory provides a robust way to understand important endeavors that support commercial suborbital flights developments, even when data is limited. Theory is - or spaceflight which reaches space, but does not even more helpful when there is an abundance of complete one orbital revolution, and the greater data’’ and ‘‘[t]heory helps to block out the noise and commercial spaceflight industry. Using the PARTS to amplify the signal.’’[2] industry model, the SHST industry is broken into five In support of the Federal Aviation components, the first letter of each designated by a Administration (FAA) Office of Commercial Space letter in the acronym, including the players, added Transportation’s (AST) goal to ‘‘encourage private value, rules, tactics (to create, maintain and manage

1 perceptions), and scope. The initial industry II.II Game Theory PARTS Industry Model component, players, is itself broken into five Game Theory is an innovation model that has components: the industry (in this case, SHST), been a pivotal tool, going back as far as the 1930’s, competitors, complementors, suppliers and for understanding the modern business world. The customers. movie "A Beautiful Mind" in 2001 popularized game The researchers performing this study were part theory and modeled the character after John Nash, of the third Emerging Space Industry Leaders (ESIL- one of the three pioneers in game theory—John Nash, 03) workshop, supported by the FAA Center of John Harsanyi, and Reinhart Selten—who were Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation awarded a Nobel Prize for their findings in 1994. (COE CST). In game theory, it is said that “what you get The first section of this report provides depends on your power in the game as well as on the background information of the ESIL workshops and power of others who have competing claims on the the game theory industry structure model called pie”[12]. In order to join the game or change the PARTS. game in any way, you need to play the game The second section of this report is the analysis differently. This is done by looking analytically at the of the SHST industry segment using the PARTS game and its players, and altering one or more of its model, defining the five subcomponents of the elements. One strategy used to change the game, is industry players, followed by the other four known as the PARTS strategy (players, added values, components of the industry model. rules, tactics, and scope), which this paper will Finally, the paper concludes with a section of discuss. summary and results. This is an analysis of the Suborbital Human Spaceflight Training (SHST) industry segment using II. BACKGROUND an industry model called PARTS [12] developed in II.I ESIL Workshops the field of game theory [13]. In this model, the The Emerging Space Industry Leaders (ESIL) industry is broken into five components, the first refers to a group of budding industry professionals. letter of each designated by a letter in the acronym, ESIL workshops are supported by the FAA Center of including the players, added value, rules, tactics (to Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation create, maintain and manage perceptions), and (COE CST) at which outreach and education training scope. Descriptions of each component and are provided with the goal of analyzing specific subcomponent is given below. segments of the emerging commercial space industry. This paper is the result of the third ESIL workshop Players (ESIL-03) which focused on using game theory The initial industry component, players, is itself techniques to address the training challenges within broken into five components: the suborbital human the commercial spaceflight industry, which is tasked spaceflight training industry (in this case, SHST), with sending hundreds of thousands of people into competitors, complementors, suppliers and customers space for the first time in history. (figure 1). Together, these five groups of actors are Two previous ESIL workshops were conducted referred to as the Value Net. Each of these is and focused on different industry structure models described below. including Michael Porter’s Industry Structural Analysis [14] which was discussed at ESIL-01, and The Company (or, in this case, the Industry the appropriate role of government in the Segment): This is the central focal point of the Value development of the emerging commercial space Net and typically is described as a company. In this industry [15] discussed at ESIL-02. More details analysis, ESIL-03 participants selected the SHST from each of the first three ESIL workshops can be industry segment to be the central player. found on the web1. Customers: The customer or “trainee” as defined by the suborbital human spaceflight training industry 2 ESIL-01: includes individuals that participate in an educational http://commercialspace.pbworks.com/w/page/47362858/ES andphysical, hands-on training program for the IL-01%20Files purposes of comprehensively understanding or ESIL-02: preparing for a suborbital space flight. Customers http://commercialspace.pbworks.com/w/page/52219771/ES may have objectives or tasks they wish to perform IL-02%20Files during the flight, and if allowed, can be trained for in ESIL-03: the safest and most authentic manner possible. http://commercialspace.pbworks.com/w/page/58895071/ES

IL-03%20Files 2

Suppliers: Suppliers in the SHST industry industry, it is very hard for any member or industry include are organizations which provide support and component to extract more value from the market solutions to the Company in its goalto help the than the amount of added value it contributes in the spaceflight traveler maintain his or her safety and first place. health, meet personal or mission-based objectives in space, and support overall enjoyment of the Rules spaceflight [16]. Suppliers can be curriculum The rules of the game refer to the external and developers, equipment providers, or providers of internal constructs of the training industry which plans, devices, and expertise. Examples of suppliers allow the game to be played. External rules can can include: Medical Health & Assessment, Pre- involve overall funding mechanisms (i.e. such as flight Fitness, Physical Spaceflight Training, Life government contracts, corporate contracts, and Support Services & Equipment, and Operations, individual sale of goods/services), as well as Procedures & Mission Specific Flight Training. commercial suborbital human spaceflight training industry guidelines (i.e. such as safety or training, Complementors: The complementors of the government regulations, protection of sensitive SHST industry are those entities that share mutually information) and standard rules of business. in the benefits and costs in most circumstances. In other words, the successes enjoyed by the training Fig. I: The PARTS Value Net [12] industry from increased sales, publicity, etc. cause enjoyment and success by the complementors. Tactics Similarly, if the training industry experiences a major This portion of the PARTS construct primarily setback, the negative effects can also be experienced concentrates on the tactics required to create, by its complementors. The degree to which a maintain, and manage perceptions of the industry. complementor is affected may depend on how well Since an industry is perceived differently by different secured it is in the face of adversity and how people, their perceptions will influence the decisions interconnected it is with other economic sectors. they make and the actions they take (their “moves”) Examples of commplimentors can include: Suborbital with respect to the industry. Tactics are especially Launch Providers, Non-Military Special Interest important during negotiations, any good game Groups (teachers, scientists, etc), Space Application strategy will take account the perceptions of all Developers, and Space Excitement Boosters. parties.

Competitors: Competitors to the SHST training Scope industry include any organizations that provide The scope refers to how the SHST industry is competitive substitutes for the services provided by a relevant. In evaluating the scope, it can be helpful to company. Such substitutes can either be direct, draw boundaries around the market or industry being meaning they provide actual spaceflight training and analyzed in order to simplify its analysis. Sometimes related services, or indirect, in which alternative this requires looking at the situation as distinct, services are provided which may preclude the need separate games rather than parts of a more complex for such training. Therefore, the needs and system. In fact, it is recognized that boundaries motivations for each type of customer in the between segments of industries and between spaceflight training industry must be taken into industries themselves (including boundaries of account to identify a comprehensive list of products, geography, time, etc.) are largely competitors. Examples of competitors can include: simplifications solely for the purpose of analysis Government Organizations, Xtreme Adventure despite the dangers and inaccuracies introduced in the Companies, and Operators themselves. process.

Added Value III. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Added value refers to the measure of what the III.I Players – The SHST Industry Segment SHST industry brings to the overall value net. Since The Suborbital Human Spaceflight Training the success and safety of the commercial space (SHST) industry provides knowledge and hands-on industry depends on customers that return happy and skill training to maximize personal health and safety healthy from , it is expected that the related to suborbital spaceflights, or spaceflight SHST industry members are critical to the industry which reaches space but does not complete one due to their ability to prepare the untrained human orbital revolution, and to other customers of the population for space. In fact, spaceflight participants commercial spaceflight industry. Spaceflight training may not be permitted to fly without training. In any is important in extreme environments such as space.

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Training helps to communicate and execute customers such as medical physicians, operators, and individual’s roles and responsibilities in case of emergency responders, as well as other members emergency, aids in the reduction of anxiety, and can with a vested interested in the health, safety, and help build group moral and teamwork during the wellbeing of the commercial spaceflight industry. flight. The general goals of training are to protect Training customers participate in a physical, personal human health and safety, to build hands-on training program for the purposes of confidence and ability to perform any objectives comprehensively understanding and preparing for a and/or tasks efficiently during flight, and to facilitate suborbital space flight. Understanding how to a successful mission and enjoyable spaceflight recognize and manage both the physiologic and experience. psychological stresses induced by high gravitational The mission of the SHST industry is accelerations common to commercial space flight operationally different than that of the NASA Space trajectories is important for their personal health and Shuttle, commercial airliners, or any other training safety. In addition, each customer may have industry for transportation such as cars or trains. One objectives or tasks to perform during the flight. difference is that spaceflight participants are not These tasks, if allowed, can be practiced in a training physically separated from the crew. Another is the program regime, in order to execute the objectives in extreme exposure to acceleration G-forces beyond the safest and most authentic manner possible. the or any commercial aircraft flight as This paper intends to focus on the three most well as potential exposure to off-nominal cabin common types of trainees found in this industry to environmental parameters for a considerable time date. Those customers include: (1) Spaceflight period. Participants may also have to integrate into Participants, (2) Professional Users; (3) Crew/Pilots, life support or flight crew equipment including and; (4) Space Experience Customers. restraint systems and vehicle egress systems [17]. Spaceflight training companies have developed Spaceflight Participants: Spaceflight participants methodologies to evaluate human tolerance, control are non crewmembers that participate in a suborbital and operation, and personal enjoyment during spaceflight. They comprise both passive and active nominal and off-nominal (emergency) flight roles on board based on their mission goals and scenarios. In several cases, academic curriculum is objectives. Common combined with flight exposures to prepare pilots, subcategories include: “tourist”, “researcher”, crew, and spaceflight participants for the rigors of “educator”, and “media”. space, as well as facilitate personal and commercial suborbital spaceflight mission objectives. Professional Users: A professional user is a The suborbital training industry interfaces with spaceflight participant that is additionally involved in multiple players in the broader commercial space performing a complex task or specific assignment industry including: space launch operators, the during their spaceflight. Professional users can spaceflight participant or “customer”, and the include scientists or researchers, grad students, and government Federal Aviation Administration Office participants tasked with conducting microgravity of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA AST) research, providing medical care, or monitoring other regulating agency. Education-only courseware spaceflight participants. providers can play a role in the training industry; however, this segment will not be discussed for the Pilots and Crew: Pilots and crew are purposes of this paper. crewmembers charged with overall vehicle operation and mission success of the spaceflight. This can III.II Players – Customers include preflight to post flight preparations and The customer or “trainee” in the suborbital procedures, operation and flight, care of human spaceflight training industry includes on- safety of passengers and crew, and handling any board spaceflight participants, researchers or safety related issues such as science or payload mission-specialists, pilots and crew, and space stowage and security. Common positions include: experience customers such as students, teachers, commander or pilot. educators, media, etc. interested in the education, experience, and entertainment value of the training Space Experience Customers: These customers program, but may not be able to make the financial participate in space flight training for the experience, commitment for an actual spaceflight. education, or entertainment value, independent of or Once commercial suborbital spaceflights begin, in advance of making any plans for actual it is probable that the “customer” category could spaceflight. Typical customers today are spaceflight expand to include on-ground personnel training enthusiasts or adventure travelers not yet willing or

4 able to make the financial or physical commitment  Land/Water Survival Training: Survival for actual spaceflight, or those who want a Systems USA, Groton, CT spaceflight experience now before the actual  Launch/Reentry High G Spaceflight spaceflights are generally available (may include Simulator Training: ETC’s The NASTAR retired and aviators as well as future space Center, Philadelphia, PA tourists), or educators or researchers who want a  In-air G-Force Flight Training: Starfighters, better understanding of spaceflight training, or those Cape Canaveral, FL; Black Sky Training, who are preparing themselves to participate in Oviedo, FL research when space flights are available. These  Spatial Disorientation & Motion Sickness: customers might also participate in zero gravity ETC’s The NASTAR Center, Philadelphia, flights, skydiving, gliding and soaring, scuba, Space PA; Ashton Graybiel Spatial Orientation Camp, or space simulation experiences on Earth. Lab, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA Some customers may pay with personal funds, while  Altitude Physiology Training: ETC’s The educators and researchers may take advantage of NASTAR Center, Philadelphia, PA; FAA educational outreach or research grants to fund their Civil Aerospace Medical Institute, space training experience. Oklahoma City, OK  Mental Awareness & Group Dynamics: III.III Players - Suppliers Inner Space Training, Netherlands Suppliers in the SHST industry include are  Pre-flight Fitness Training: Astrowright, Las organizations which provide support and solutions to Vegas, NV; Qualtec, Tempe, AZ the Company in its goal to help the spaceflight  Life Support System Training Services: traveler maintain his or her safety and health, meet David Clark, Worcester, MA; ILC Dover, personal or mission-based objectives in space, and Frederica, DE; Final Frontier Design, support overall enjoyment of the spaceflight. Brooklyn, NY; Oceaneering, Houston, TX; Suppliers can be curriculum developers, equipment Orbital Outfitters, North Hollywood, CA providers, or providers of plans, devices, and expertise. Examples of suppliers can include: Support Services Medical Health & Assessment, Pre-flight Fitness,  Space Ticket Sales & Support: Space Physical Spaceflight Training, Life Support Services Adventures, Vienna, VA; Suborbital & Equipment, and Operations, Procedures & Mission Training Services and Solutions, Canada; Specific Flight Training. Space Expedition Corporation (SXC), The growth and demand of the greater Netherlands; Accredited commercial human spaceflight industry and its Space Agents (ASAs), worldwide growing customer base, will affect the diversity and volume of training services, and may also impact the  Human Health and Medical: Wyle value net and service supply chain. We categorize Laboratories, Houston, TX; NASA JSC, suppliers into the following main categories: Houston, TX; USAF Academy, Colorado Suborbital Launch Providers, Spaceflight Equipment Springs, CO; Barrios Technology, Houston, Providers & Facilities, and Support Services. A TX; Individual Aerospace Physicans representative list of companies is shown below,  Training Plans and Support: Qualtec, however there may be additional companies either Tempe, AZ unknown or missed during the data collection for this paper. III.IV Players – Complementors The complementors of the SHST industry are Suborbital Launch Providers(passenger-carrying) those entities that share mutually in the benefits and  Virgin Galactic, Mojave, CA costs in most circumstances. In other words, the successes enjoyed by the training industry from  Space Expedition Corporation/XCOR, increased sales, publicity, etc. cause enjoyment and Mojave, CA success by the complementors. Similarly, if the  Blue Origin, Seattle, WA training industry experiences a major setback, the  Booster, Brussels, Belgium negative effects can also be experienced by its

complementors. The degree to which a complementor Spaceflight Training Providers & Facilities is affected may depend on how well secured it is in  Training: Aurora Aerospace, the face of adversity and how interconnected it is Tampa Bay, FL; Zero G Corporation, with other economic sectors. We categorize Arlington, VA complementors into the following main categories:

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Suborbital Launch Providers, Non-Military Special provided which may preclude the need for such Interest Groups (teachers, scientists, etc), Space training. Therefore, the needs and motivations for Application Developers, and Space Excitement each type of customer in the spaceflight training Boosters. Subsets of the companies are represented industry must be taken into account to identify a below. comprehensive list of competitors. We categorize competitors into the following main categories: Suborbital Launch Providers Government Organizations, Xtreme Adventure, and The most obvious complementor is the company Space Launch Providers. Subsets of the companies that will provide flights for which the participants are are represented below. being trained for by the training industry. There is a clear ‘industrial symbiosis’ between these two Government Organizations entities whereby the risks, successes and failures are Various government organizations have shared evenly. An increase in popularity of extensive experience in spaceflight training and suborbital will lead to a similar related areas and therefore present competition to increase for the training industry. commercial spaceflight training providers. In one case, if a government organization is the customer to Non-Military Special Interest Groups the flight provider, the government may elect to train This category of complementors includes people the employees and researchers it will be sending on like teachers and scientists that benefit from the flight. In another case, the flight providers may suborbital spaceflight through inspiring students to opt to contract with the government for training and pursue STEM careers or through direct research in related services for its crew and customers. fields such as biology and fluid physics. As non- Government competitors can be either domestic or military personnel, these groups of people typically international; domestic competitors include the do not have exposure to the rigor of spaceflight and National Air and Space Administration (NASA), the thus are in need of training for their suborbital Federal Aviation Administration’s Civil Aerospace spaceflights. Therefore, not only are these people Medical Institute (FAA CAMI), and the U.S. customers, but complementors too. If the training Military, while international competitors include Star industry is negatively impacted, then so is the work City in Russia and the European Space Agency. done by these professionals, and vice versa. Xtreme Adventure Space Application Developers Because a significant aspect of the attraction of Similar to special interest groups are developers the human spaceflight experience is the thrill and of space applications. These are people or companies adrenaline rush, providers of related Xtreme who are in the business of product development and Adventure activities can be categorized as require suborbital spaceflight training for a basic competitors because of the potential for their services flight as well as additional training to meet their act as a substitute for space tourism. If thrill seekers personal or professional space objectives. decide to pursue cliff diving or hang gliding, for example, as a substitute for feeling weightless like a Space Excitement Boosters ZeroG space flight training experience, the individual This category refers to all entities that provide may not see the need for additional spaceflight goods or services in order to stimulate interest in training unless mandated or motivated for personal or amongst the general public. They professional gain. may include merchandise providers, popular science media, educational institutions, theme parks, and Space Launch Providers many more. A customer of the training industry will Finally, the flight providers themselves have the have additional value when one of these option to provide their own training for the pilots and complementors provides its good or service to the crew, professional users, and spaceflight participants customer. flying on their vehicles. Companies such as Virgin Galactic have stated there will be three days of pre- III.V Players – Competitors flight training included in the ticket price. What will Competitors to the SHST training industry be included as part of individual Space Launch include any organizations that provide competitive Providers training program is still largely unknown. substitutes for the services provided by the Company. It is expected that while some aspects of training Such substitutes can either be direct, meaning they might overlap and therefore be competitive, other provide actual spaceflight training and related aspects of training might be complimentary – such as services; or indirect, in which alternative services are is seen in the commercial aviation industry today.

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III.VI Value Net for Suborbital Human Spaceflight performance and experience enhancement, (2) Training Industry outreach and market expansion, (3) supplier Based on the game theory, we ask if the prosperity, (4) medical understanding, (5) increase of suborbital human spaceflight training (SHST) public awareness and approval, (6) risk mitigation, industry is a game, who are the players and what are (7) job creation, and (8) innovation from lead users. their roles? Understanding who the players are in the game and their interdependencies to one another can Performance and Experience Enhancement be visualized in a basic schematic called a value net. Performance and experience enhancement is one Each value net includes the traditional customers, of the foremost factors of this industry’s added value. suppliers, and competitors, as well as features those By participating in pre-flight training, participants, who provide complements to the industry, called professionals, and crew members will each be able to “complementors” [12]. take advantage of increased familiarity to the unusual Based on Barry J. Nalebuff and Adam M. environment they will be experiencing in addition to Brandenburger’s definitions in the book Co- the spacecraft hardware with which they will be Opetition; interacting. This familiarity will provide reduced anxiety and enhanced safety to these individuals, as  A player is your complementor if customers well as management of their expectations during the value your product more when they have the flight. Each of these factors will in turn optimize the other player’s product than when they have individuals’ time usage while on the spacecraft, your product alone. allowing them to fully enjoy their flight or ensure  A player is your competitor if customers their project is performed properly. This overall value your product less when they have the enhancement of the spaceflight experience will not other player’s product than when they have only benefit the customers, but also the suppliers and your product alone. the complementors, since the short time available will be utilized to its fullest extent. The Value Net is a helpful tool in that it reveals two fundamental symmetries in the game of business. Outreach and Market Expansion Vertically we see that suppliers and customers play Outreach and market expansion will affect each symmetric roles and contribute as partners in creating of the four groups within the value net. As outreach value, while horizontally we see competitors and and awareness of the industry increases, the public complementors play nearly mirror-image roles in will generate increased excitement about suborbital creating value to the industry (figure 2). space travel and the training that is required for such flights. The increased expansion of the market will II.I also bring in more spaceflight training participants. III.I This larger pool of trainees will provide more IIII.I customer feedback of the experiences involved in the IVI.I training, which will allow the providers to improve VI.I their training for future groups. VII.I Supplier Prosperity Supplier prosperity is the successful flourishing or good fortune of business success. Often this is related to financial growth and market share. The impact of success on suppliers on the value net will result in success for everyone in the commercial spaceflight industry. Training is heavily dependent upon actual spaceflight, thus the increased ability for supplier growth will directly influence the success of Fig II: Suborbital Human Spaceflight Training the suborbital human spaceflight training industry. (SHST) Industry PLAYERS – Value Net Medical Understanding III.VII Added Value Medical understanding will also increase as the The SHST industry adds value for the cadre of suborbital human spaceflight training industry grows. customers, competitors, suppliers and complementors Throughout the courses of training, tracking the within its value net. The predominant areas of value overall health and wellbeing of each participating have been identified as those that create (1) trainee will increase the amount of data aerospace

7 medical researchers have. These increased metrics possibilities regarding the platform they are utilizing. will allow researchers to analyze the effects This will provide great feedback in the use of space spaceflight has on the human body to a greater extent within the various spacecrafts, in addition to than ever before, due to the large increase of the data increasing overall knowledge of what a person can pool. Not only will these data provide the suppliers possibly accomplish within a given time constraint and complementors with better information to for a mission. improve their services, but it will also allow the customers to have a greater awareness of what their III.VIII Rules body will experience when put under such The rules of the game refer to the external and conditions. internal constructs of the training industry which allows the game to be played. External rules can Increase of Public Aawareness and Approval involve overall funding mechanisms (i.e. such as Increased public awareness and public approval government contracts, corporate contracts, and of the industry is required in order to reduce the individual sale of goods/services), as well as litigation involved in the operations of the training commercial suborbital human spaceflight training programs. This will allow the providers more industry guidelines such as safety or training, freedom in their operations, which will enhance the government regulations, protection of sensitive trainees’ experiences. This will in turn increase the information, and standard rules of business. operational stability of the overall space industry, Safety and training rules include government benefiting all four value net groups. regulation such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Space Risk Mitigation Transportation regulations. The FAA FAR part 460.5 Risk mitigation also comes into play concerning illustrates the “Crew Qualification and Training increasing value of the industry. As mentioned, by Requirements” to be adhered to by commercial participating in the training courses, trainees will spaceflight providers. In addition, a FAA Medical increase their familiarity with the unusual Class 3 certificate issued by an AeroMedical environment of spaceflight in addition to the Examiner (AME) may also be required by some spacecraft itself. By doing so, they will each training providers (i.e. such as NASTAR Center substantially decrease the amount of risk they impose which is FAA approved) as a guideline to keep its on themselves, the other crew members, the trainees safe. spacecraft, and the success of the mission as a whole. Other safety and training rules may include Mitigating risks as much as possible is also signed documentation such as a waiver or release of advantageous as far as insurance providers are liability by each trainee prior to training, and the concerned, as they are likely to be much more “right of refusal” not to train anyone who may be at benevolent if the participating individuals have been risk to him/herself or the training provider. Typically, trained before their flights. full safety disclosure is provided to the trainee along with a customer code of conduct to follow and adhere Job Creation to while training to ensure safe and effective training Job creation will increase residually not only in practices. the suborbital human spaceflight training industry, Government regulations may include the FAA but in the entire space industry. As more trainees legal and safety guidelines specific to each activity (if seek to perform the regimen set out by providers, the listed or known), as well as ITAR restrictions for providers will require more staff to operate the foreigners nationals, and contract methods where training facilities. Additionally, as more people applicable. Other government regulations may be become certified to work in the suborbital applied to the training providers in time as the environment, jobs will become available to them as industry matures with greater volumes of “at risk” researchers, test subjects, etc. situations. The protection of sensitive information such as Innovation from Lead Users Nondisclosure Agreements (NDA’s) that protect Innovation from lead users will increase from the proprietary information may help confirm the rules growth of the industry as well. Each time a lead user between launch providers and training suppliers and utilizes training services, they become increasingly their clients., such as the confidentiality of an item of familiar with the environment, allowing them to information (i.e. such as a flight profile or specific broaden their scope of thinking regarding the flight. protocol) used in a training program. From the Instead of merely focusing on a singular experiment customers prospective, customers or trainees, may or given experience, they will become more aware of find it helpful to have rules regarding the protection

8 of their medical information if it is taken during government imposed training standards may also training. alter the landscape. Government regulations may Standard rules of business also always apply and benefit the industry by demonstrating increased should be considered. These can include an ethics safety standards, however may limit the number of policy, contracting vehicles, and legal and liability persons able to go to space onboard a space launch considerations or constraints. operators spacecraft. Examples of regulations include imposing spacecraft system safety III.IX Tactics compliance, imposing human health and fitness level Tactics of the industry focus on both the current flight restrictions, opposing certain anthropometric or perceptions and future outlook of the industry and its medical conditions for flight, etc. survival. Fundamentally, tactics that anticipate and overcome personal and safety risk aspects of III.X Scope spaceflight such as preparing humans for the harsh The scope refers to how the commercial human environment, flight profile, technology or vehicle suborbital training industry is relevant. Currently in constrains, or individual limitations or restrictions are its infancy with test flights and powered critical for training success. Factors impacting suborbital flights underway, but without the first training industry growth can include the promotion, paying passengers onboard spacecraft [as of August marketing, sales, and public relations generated by 2013], the commercial spaceflight training industry is previous trainees touting their positive reactions to primarily relevant in its research and development the training, or by the training industry itself in work performed to date. As the industry matures, generating public awareness. An additional factor in growing in spaceflight and spaceflight training tactics for the SHST industry would be the demand, it is foreseeable that safety, training, and imposition of government licensing on the human health standards will develop to both commercial space training industry. Currently, safeguard and promote future commercial spaceflight governmental training licensing does not yet exist activities. creating freedom for space launch providers, but no enforcement that training or types of training is Research essential prior to flight. The few training companies Concerns over the health effects and restrictions that exist today may continue to grow and expand, for upcoming commercial space travelers have despite policy or other challenges, or may collapse prompted many questions resulting in several waiting for the space training industry to mature to a research studies. One of the largest studies ever steady customer level. Growth is hindered on conducted probes this question. Funded by the commercial spaceflight success. Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Spaceflight’s Center of Excellence Market Expansion (FAA COE) and conducted by the University of It is foreseeable that as the entire commercial Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) at the spaceflight space industry matures, multiple training companies simulation facilities at The National AeroSpace and competitors will emerge which may cause Training and Research Center, NASTAR Center, the conflict over market share. With demand and capital study [April to October 2013][18] follows on growth, it is often the case that only the “top” preliminary data collected from 2007 which companies survive. This can be due to a company’s determined that individuals with well-controlled heritage, prestige, or customer loyalty. In this medical conditions were able to endure acceleration scenario, often the remaining companies either shut forces and reentry profiles of spacecrafts with down or are absorbed by the “top” succeeding training. Based on this finding, four health company or companies. conditions were selected to be specifically addressed in the research protocol. These include (1) Commercial Association Formation hypertension, (2) diabetes mellitus, (3) coronary An alternate tactic and potential outcome is for artery disease, (4) hyperlipidemia, and a fifth control an association group of member training group. Results are expected in summer-fall 2014. organizations to form whereby each share in The data resulting from this study is significant to marketing, messaging, and delivery of training better understand the limitations or non-limitations of services to the industry. Commercial associations upcoming commercial space travelers. benefit typically from a large (fee-paying) participant membership community and a comprehensive skill- Training set of assets from the partner member training Training for space travel is known to include companies. In any outcome, the arrival of high launch and reentry acceleration (G) forces,

9 vibrations, microgravity, altitude, spatial space. Case of the European spatial sector disorientation, and other physiological and analysis. Evaluation of economic indirect psychological effects. In order to better educate and industrial impact. IAC-09.E3.4.6, presented at prepare the vast majority of commercial space the 2009 International Aeronautical Congress, travelers without prior spaceflight experience for the Daejeon, South Korea, October 2009. rigors of space, training becomes an important 4. Davidian K and Foust J. Suborbital market element. Training can help understand how the overview and application of the disruption stresses of spaceflight will affect your performance theory. Presented at the AIAA Space and enjoyment ability. In addition, training aids in Conference, September 2010. controlling and decreasing anxiety, tension, and risk 5. Cheetham BW. Industry structural analysis of of injury. Companies that perform commercial space commercial crew to orbit sector. IAC-10-E6.3.1, training and training related activities are an presented at the 2010 International Astronautical important contributor that should have both short Congress in Prague, Czech Republic, October term and long term scope strategies. 2010. 6. Christensen I, Davidian K, Kaiser D, and Foust Education J. Applying disruptive innovation theory in Training helps to increase topic understanding emerging markets for crew on-orbit and knowledge of a specific skill or activity. transportation. Presented at the AIAA Space Education imparts a better awareness of the activity Conference, September 2011. being learned and often leads to greater inspiration, 7. Kaiser D, Christensen I, Foust J, and Davidian motivation, and contribution in that skill or activity. K. An industry structural analysis and strategy In commercial spaceflight, training can help educate insights for the commercial crew transportation more people, and more people can encourage and industry. Presented at the AIAA Space promote engagement in training and actual Conference, September 2011. commercial human spaceflight. 8. Davidian K, Foust J, Kaiser D, and Christensen I. Are commercial space transportation industries IV. SUMMARY & RESULTS emerging? Presented at the International Applying the game theory innovation model to Astronautical Congress in Cape Town, South the emerging commercial human suborbital training Africa, October 2011. industry provides new perspectives to evaluate the 9. Cheetham BW. Strategic evaluation of growth of the industry tasked with supporting the commercial crew to orbit transportation industry health, safety, and preparedness of the greater structure and status. IAC-11-D4.2.1, presented at commercial space industry. We see that by adjusting the 2011 International Astronautical Congress in the parts of the game, game theory can be used to Cape Town, South Africa, October 2011. provide a comprehensive and structured method to 10. Davidian K, Christensen I, Kaiser D, and Foust assess ways to grow, change, and mature over time to J. Disruptive innovation theory applied to meet the needs of commercial human spaceflight. commercial cargo and crew space transportation markets. Presented at the International FAA COE CST Disclaimer Statement: Although Astronautical Congress in Cape Town, South the FAA has sponsored this project, it neither Africa, October 2011. endorses nor rejects the findings of this research. The 11. Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year presentation of this information is in the interest of Forecast of Market Demand. The Tauri Group invoking technical community comment on the under contract with the Federal Aviation results and conclusions of the research. Administration and Space Florida, July 31, 2012. Available online at: V. REFERENCES www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offi 1. Hart DM. The Emergence of Entrepreneurship ces/ast/media/Suborbital_Reusable_Vehicles_Re Policy: Governance, Start-ups, and Growth in the port_Full.pdf (accessed January 1, 2013). U.S. Knowledge Economy. New York: 12. Brandenburger, Adam, and Barry Nalebuff. Co- Cambridge University Press, 2003. opetition. New York: Doubleday, 1996. 2. Christensen CM, Anthony SD, and Roth EA. 13. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory Seeing What’s Next: Using the Theories of 14. Porter, Michael E. Competitive Strategy: Innovation to Predict Industry Change. Boston: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Harvard Business School, 2004. Competitors. New York: Free, 1980. 3. de Hauteclocque B. Space economics original 15. Cheetham, B., Feldhacker, J., Peura, A., approach: Economic theory to the benefit of Chandler, A., Kloberdanz, C., and Gloswald, L.;

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"Government's Role in Commercial Space from Spanish. Brienna has a degree in Biology and the Perspective of Emerging Industry Leaders", maintains current First Aid, CPR, and AED IAC-12-E6.4-D4.2.1, September, 2012. certifications. Her professional memberships include 16. Henwood, Brienna, L. “Commercial Human Explorers Club, WIA, CSF, WAI, IAF, AIAA, IEEE, Spaceflight Training Methodologies at the NSS, IAE, DAN, PADI and NAUI. National AeroSpace Training and Research Center”, NSRC-12. February 29, 2012. 17. Paper: Flight Crew Medical Standards and Spaceflight Participant Medical Acceptance Guidelines for Commercial Space Flight. FAA AST COE. June 30 2012. 18. Space Flight Research Study conducted by University Texas Medical Branch in partnership with NASTAR Center and funded by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation medicine (accessed August 1, 2013). Available online at: www.utmbamc.com/research.cfm

VI. BIOGRAPHY Brienna Henwood is an accomplished Marine Biologist, Trainer, Certified Fitness Instructor, Published Researcher, Student Pilot, Master SCUBA Diver, and PR & Communications Executive. Ms. Henwood currently serves as the Executive Director of Space Training and Research at the National AeroSpace Training and Research (NASTAR) Center in Philadelphia, PA, where she has lead the company from infancy into an internationally recognized, FAA approved, global center for commercial . Brienna has developed, managed, and conducted over four (4) dozen courses and trained over 275 future astronauts for space to date; including passengers for Sir ’s Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo, and Space Expedition Corporation’s XCor Lynx, in addition to scientists, teachers, and students. In her years as a PR Communications Executive, she has orchestrated congressional VIP events, created hands-on experiential adventure campaigns, and has secured global media coverage on ABC, NBC, Good Morning America, Discovery Channel, History Channel, BBC, NHK, and others generating over 25 million impressions. Brienna has a lifelong passion for exploration, travel, and health/fitness. She is a published author currently working on two books, and is a leading industry spokeswoman, featured at events such as the National Suborbital Researcher Conference (NSRC), International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight (ISPCS), and Sea Space Symposium (S3). Brienna has a multi-cultural background with family located in four continents. She is fluent in French and English; currently studying Italian and

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