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A Comparative Examination of Jihadi Mobilization in Central Asia and the South Caucasus

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A Comparative Examination of Jihadi Mobilization in Central Asia and the South Caucasus The University of Maine DigitalCommons@UMaine Electronic Theses and Dissertations Fogler Library Fall 11-15-2019 Fragmentation, Frustrated Revolt, and Off-Shore Opportunity: A Comparative Examination of Jihadi Mobilization in Central Asia and the South Caucasus William B. Farrell University of Maine, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/etd Part of the Comparative Politics Commons, and the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Farrell, William B., "Fragmentation, Frustrated Revolt, and Off-Shore Opportunity: A Comparative Examination of Jihadi Mobilization in Central Asia and the South Caucasus" (2019). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 3118. https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/etd/3118 This Open-Access Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@UMaine. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UMaine. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FRAGMENTATION, FRUSTRATED REVOLT, AND OFF-SHORE OPPORTUNITY: A COMPARATIVE EXAMINATION OF JIHADI MOBILIZATION IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS By William B. Farrell B.A. Tufts University, 1992 M.A.L.D The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, 1994 A DISSERTATION Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Interdisciplinary) The Graduate School The University of Maine December 2019 Advisory Committee: Dr. James W. Warhola, Professor of Political Science (Co-Chair) Capt. James Settele, USN (Ret.), Exec. Director, School of Policy and International Affairs (Co-Chair) Dr. Seth Singleton, Professor, School of Policy and International Affairs Dr. Mario Teisl, Professor of Economics, Director of School of Economics Dr. Sharon Morris, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State (2015-18), United States Department of State FRAGMENTATION, FRUSTRATED REVOLT, AND OFF-SHORE OPPORTUNITY: A COMPARATIVE EXAMINATION OF JIHADI MOBILIZATION IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS By William B. Farrell Dissertation Advisors: Dr. James W. Warhola and Capt. James Settele, USN (Ret.) An Abstract of the Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Interdisciplinary) December 2019 This research presents analysis for identifying common risk and resilience factors that contributed to or hindered Salafi jihadi mobilization of citizens of Central Asia and the South Caucasus and examines the extent to which these factors had differing internal and external outcomes on Salafi jihadi mobilization. Three levels of analysis provide examination of regime characteristics, behavior of jihadi organizations that mobilized individuals from the region, and case studies through interviews in communities affected by jihadi mobilization in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia. This research reveals that early distinctions in Islamist subnational struggles had oriented violence towards governments within Central Asia, while neighboring struggles in the North Caucasus oriented jihadi participants from Azerbaijan and Georgia largely towards external authorities in the north. Further, this research suggests that the dual phenomena of domestic jihadi manifestation of violence and foreign fighter mobilization to external theatres are inversely related and affected by the patterns of jihadi organizational displacement, co-location with larger entities engaged in conflict abroad, and expansion of organizations seeking new members within these external jihadi theatres. Additionally, state behavior, including state coercive capacity, solidification of elite cooperation, and regime legitimation through the construction of well- curated national identities, has served as a strengthening bulwark against jihadi organizational effectiveness internally in the region. Yet, interview data from this study indicates that state behavior has also engendered notable grievances among ethnic and religious minority populations in areas of jihadi foreign fighter origin. Despite these society-fragmenting perceptions of injustice, prejudice, and lack of trust in governance, grievances have not galvanized into viable sustained internal jihadi action throughout the region. Rather, this research suggests that punitive state pressures on outgroups and patterns of economic migration across the entire population have contributed to a venting process that limits the potential manpower available for internal violent agendas. Yet this same venting process presents some individuals avenues for jihadi mobilization, strengthening the recruitment possibilities for offshore jihadi organizations. DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my incredible wife, Jennifer Farrell and our five beautiful children, Liam, Aila, Siobhan, Seamus, and Killian. Not only have they endured my frequent and long travels abroad, but also the many missed weekends and vacations as I put pen to paper to write this piece. I am so blessed to have such a supportive family that has helped me to understand that life is all about the warmth and love of the people around you. They forever have my love and gratitude. This journey would not have even begun, had it not been for my parents, James and Margaret Farrell, who encouraged me and my brothers, Dr. Walter Farrell and Geoffrey Farrell, to continue our academic training and to never stop thinking, questioning, and growing. My hope is that my children will emerge into adulthood with the same curiosity, sense of adventure, and desire to learn that my mother and father instilled in us. My parents and my brothers have been a deep source of inspiration and motivation on this journey. I truly wish my father could have seen me complete this effort. But his memory and spirit have been with me throughout. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am grateful to the remarkable mentorship and guidance of my PhD committee and the countless hours that each member has spent with me over the past few years: Dr. James W. Warhola for frequently pointing me in key directions of exploration and for continuously encouraging me to finish this journey, even in periods of self-doubt; Capt. James Settele for not only introducing me to almost every member of the committee and giving me the opportunity to teach my materials to bright and engaged graduate students at the School of Policy and International Affairs, but for the unwavering support throughout this doctoral process; Dr. Seth Singleton for having a knack for asking the right questions at the right time, causing me to think deeper on the interconnection of issues, not only across geography, but across history; Dr. Mario Teisl for refining my understanding of how to design and conduct field research, knowledge that I use every day in my professional field; Dr. Sharon Morris for showing me throughout the years of our various professional intersections that academic training deeply enriches not only policymaking, but also real world implementation. The friendship of these five individuals is perhaps the most valuable reward of this journey. I am also appreciative of FHI360 and the United States Agency for International Development for the support and permission to use and adapt materials that I produced for the 2018 study Georgia Violent Extremism Risk Assessment and for Mercy Corps for the support and permission to use and adapt materials that I produced for the 2016 study Vulnerable to Manipulation: Interviews with Migrant Youth and Youth Remittance-Recipients in Kyrgyzstan. And finally, I am grateful for the crucial financial support through the Penelope Wolfe Fellowship and the School of Policy and International Affairs that helped launch my doctoral studies. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION ................................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 1.1 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................ 7 1.2 CHAPTER OUTLINE .......................................................................................................... 8 1.3 LIMITATIONS ..................................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 2: THE GLOBAL PATH TO SALAFI JIHADISM ................................................. 11 2.1 ISLAMISM AS TERM AND CONCEPT .......................................................................... 12 2.2 SPREAD AND DISRUPTION ........................................................................................... 24 2.3 EMERGENCE OF TRANSNATIONAL SALAFI JIHADISM ......................................... 27 2.4 THE CONFLUENCE OF DOMESTIC AND TRANSNATIONAL AGENDAS ............. 32 2.5 ATTRACTION AND RECRUITMENT TO SALAFI JIHADI ORGANIZATIONS
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