The Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming Matters
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Swanson and Tsonis
This is the print version of the Skeptical Science article 'It's internal variability', which can be found at http://sks.to/variable. What The Science Says: Internal variability can only account for ~0.3°C change in average global surface air temperature at most over periods of several decades, and scientific studies have consistently shown that it cannot account for more than a small fraction of the global warming over the past century. Climate Myth: It's internal variability When you look at the possibility of natural unforced variability, you see that can cause excursions that we've seen recently (Dr. John Christy) A favorite argument among climate scientist "skeptics" like Christy, Spencer, and Lindzen is that "internal variability" can account for much or all of the global warming we've observed over the past century. As we will see here, natural variability cannot account for the large and rapid warming we've observed over the past century, and particularly the past 40 years. Swanson and Tsonis One of the most widely-circulated papers on the impact of natural variability on global temperatures is Swanson et al. (2009) which John has previously discussed. Although Swanson 2009 was widely discussed throughout the blogosphere and mainstream media, the widespread beliefs that the study attributed global warming to natural variability and/or predicted global cooling were based on misunderstandings of the paper, as Dr. Swanson noted: "What do our results have to do with Global Warming, i.e., the century-scale response to greenhouse gas emissions? VERY LITTLE, contrary to claims that others have made on our behalf. -
Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong? Naomi Oreskes
Changing Planet: Past, Present, Future Lecture 4 – Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong? Naomi Oreskes, PhD 1. Start of Lecture Four (0:16) [ANNOUNCER:] From the Howard Hughes Medical Institute...The 2012 Holiday Lectures on Science. This year's lectures: "Changing Planet: Past, Present, Future," will be given by Dr. Andrew Knoll, Professor of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University; Dr. Naomi Oreskes, Professor of History and Science Studies at the University of California, San Diego; and Dr. Daniel Schrag, Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University. The fourth lecture is titled: Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong? And now, a brief video to introduce our lecturer Dr. Naomi Oreskes. 2. Profile of Dr. Naomi Oreskes (1:14) [DR. ORESKES:] One thing that's really important for all people to understand is that the whole notion of certainty is mistaken, and it's something that climate skeptics and deniers and the opponents of evolution really exploit. Many of us think that scientific knowledge is certain, so therefore if someone comes along and points out the uncertainties in a certain scientific body of knowledge, we think that undermines the science, we think that means that there's a problem in the science, and so part of my message is to say that that view of science is incorrect, that the reality of science is that it's always uncertain because if we're actually doing research, it means that we're asking questions, and if we're asking questions, then by definition we're asking questions about things we don't already know about, so uncertainty is part of the lifeblood of science, it's something we need to embrace and realize it's a good thing, not a bad thing. -
“Hard-Won” Consensus Brent Ranalli
Ranalli • Climate SCienCe, ChaRaCteR, and the “haRd-Won” ConSenSuS Brent Ranalli Climate Science, Character, and the “Hard-Won” Consensus ABSTRACT: What makes a consensus among scientists credible and convincing? This paper introduces the notion of a “hard-won” consensus and uses examples from recent debates over climate change science to show that this heuristic stan- dard for evaluating the quality of a consensus is widely shared. The extent to which a consensus is “hard won” can be understood to depend on the personal qualities of the participating experts; the article demonstrates the continuing util- ity of the norms of modern science introduced by Robert K. Merton by showing that individuals on both sides of the climate science debate rely intuitively on Mertonian ideas—interpreted in terms of character—to frame their arguments. INTRodUCTIoN he late Michael Crichton, science fiction writer and climate con- trarian, once remarked: “Whenever you hear the consensus of Tscientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results” (Crichton 2003). Reproducibility of results and other methodological criteria are indeed the proper basis for scientific judgments. But Crichton is wrong to say that consensus is irrel- evant. Consensus among scientists serves to certify facts for the lay public.1 Those on the periphery of the scientific enterprise (i.e., policy makers and the public), who don’t have the time or the expertise or the equipment to check results for themselves, necessarily rely on the testimony of those at the center. -
Fos Extracts - 2011
FoS Extracts - 2011 Contents 2011-11-30 .................................................................................................................................................. 10 Climategate 2.0: New Emails Rock the Global Warming Debate .......................................................... 10 Ross McKitrick: Fix the IPCC or Fold It ................................................................................................ 10 Climate Summit Opens in Durban .......................................................................................................... 10 Canadian Environment Minister Rejects “Guilt Payment” to Poorer Countries .................................... 11 Peter Foster: The Moral Climate ............................................................................................................. 11 UAH Global Temperature Update for October 2011: +0.11°C .............................................................. 11 2011-11-05 .................................................................................................................................................. 11 Obama’s Green Obsession: The Democrats’ Blue Collar Blues ............................................................ 11 Another Government-picked Power Company Buried in the Green Graveyard .................................... 12 Australian Archbishop: Carbon Credits Like Medieval Indulgences ..................................................... 12 Scientist Who Said Climate Skeptics Had Been Proved Wrong Accused of Hiding -
A Prediction Market for Climate Outcomes
Florida State University College of Law Scholarship Repository Scholarly Publications 2011 A Prediction Market for Climate Outcomes Shi-Ling Hsu Florida State University College of Law Follow this and additional works at: https://ir.law.fsu.edu/articles Part of the Environmental Law Commons, Law and Politics Commons, Natural Resources Law Commons, and the Oil, Gas, and Mineral Law Commons Recommended Citation Shi-Ling Hsu, A Prediction Market for Climate Outcomes, 83 U. COLO. L. REV. 179 (2011), Available at: https://ir.law.fsu.edu/articles/497 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Scholarly Publications by an authorized administrator of Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A PREDICTION MARKET FOR CLIMATE OUTCOMES * SHI-LING HSU This Article proposes a way of introducing some organization and tractability in climate science, generating more widely credible evaluations of climate science, and imposing some discipline on the processing and interpretation of climate information. I propose a two-part policy instrument consisting of (1) a carbon tax that is indexed to a “basket” of climate outcomes, and (2) a cap-and- trade system of emissions permits that can be redeemed in the future in lieu of paying the carbon tax. The amount of the carbon tax in this proposal (per ton of CO2) would be set each year on the basis of some objective, non-manipulable climate indices, such as temperature and mean sea level, and also on the number of certain climate events, such as flood events or droughts, that occurred in the previous year (or some moving average of previous years). -
Perceptions of Science in America
PERCEPTIONS OF SCIENCE IN AMERICA A REPORT FROM THE PUBLIC FACE OF SCIENCE INITIATIVE THE PUBLIC FACE OF SCIENCE PERCEPTIONS OF SCIENCE IN AMERICA american academy of arts & sciences Cambridge, Massachusetts © 2018 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences All rights reserved. isbn: 0-87724-120-1 This publication is available online at http://www.publicfaceofscience.org. The views expressed in this publication are those held by the contributors and are not necessarily those of the Officers and Members of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Please direct inquiries to: American Academy of Arts & Sciences 136 Irving Street Cambridge ma 02138-1996 Telephone: 617-576-5000 Fax: 617-576-5050 Email: [email protected] Web: www.amacad.org CONTENTS Preface v Top Three Takeaways vii Introduction 1 SECTION 1: General Perceptions of Science 4 Confidence in Scientific Leaders Remains Relatively Stable 4 A Majority of Americans Views Scientific Research as Beneficial . 6 . But Many are Concerned about the Pace of Change 7 Americans Express Strong Support for Public Investment in Research 8 Americans Support an Active Role for Science and Scientists in Public Life 10 Scientists Should Play a Major Role in Shaping Public Policy 11 Discussion and Research Considerations 12 SECTION 2: Demographic Influences on General Views of Science 14 Confidence in Scientific Leaders Varies Based on Demographics and Other Factors 14 Higher Educational Attainment Correlates with Positive Perceptions of Science 16 Trust in Scientists Varies Based on Education and Politics 18 Discussion and Research Considerations 20 SECTION 3: Case Studies of Perceptions on Specific Science Topics 22 There is No Single Anti-Science Population . -
Climate Change: Is the Science Really Settled?
CLIMATE CHANGE: IS THE SCIENCE REALLY SETTLED? by Lawrence Solomon SPPI COMMENTARY & ESSAY SERIES ♦ February 25, 2010 CLIMATE CHANGE: IS THE SCIENCE REALLY SETTLED? A PRESENTATION TO THE COLORADO MINING ASSOCIATION by Lawrence Solomon | February 10, 2010 Thank you, Stuart, for that introduction. I’m grateful for the opportunity to address this gathering, although I’m not that pleased anymore with the title of my talk. “Climate Change – Is the Science Really Settled?” That seemed like a good title back in October, when Stuart invited me to come here. But a lot has happened since October. Chiefly, Climategate happened, one month later, in November. For those of you who haven’t heard of Climategate, this was the release – probably by a whistleblower – of some 3000 documents, many of them emails between some of the most important promoters of the global warming hypothesis. I call the “doomsayers,” not to be pejorative but because that term, “doomsayer,” most accurately describes their message. Before those emails came to light, the doomsayers were already in trouble. Public opinion in the US, the UK and other countries had already swung against the thesis that man is responsible for dangerous global warming. After the Climategate emails came to light, elite opinion began to turn against the doomsayers. I can now tell you with great confidence that there won’t be a cap and trade bill, there won’t be a national carbon tax, there won’t be national legislation of any significance, not in the US, not in other countries that have not yet adopted greenhouse gas legislation. -
2012 Redacted Response
From: Gillis, Justin To: Andrew Dessler Subject: RE: thoughts on Heartland Leak w.r.t. cloud feedback Date: Thursday, March 08, 2012 11:23:54 AM Yes, he was making that complaint. "My papers get special treatment from the cabal," etc. etc. I have to say I read the reviews of the '11 paper, at your suggestion, and they looked completely professional and on-point to my unpracticed eye. -----Original Message----- From: On Behalf Of Andrew Dessler Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2012 12:07 PM To: Gillis, Justin Subject: Re: thoughts on Heartland Leak w.r.t. cloud feedback He's been trying to publish this, but it's been rejected at least twice and a third rejection is on the way (I think). Dick doesn't understand R^2 or, more likely, the argument is just a squirt of squids' ink designed to confuse. On Thu, Mar 8, 2012 at 10:20 AM, Gillis, Justin wrote: > He had choice words to say about your paper, by the way. "R-squared of .02! Can you believe that!" I take it that means he didn't like the width of your error bars, or some such... > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: On > Behalf Of Andrew Dessler > Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2012 11:18 AM > To: Gillis, Justin > Subject: Re: thoughts on Heartland Leak w.r.t. cloud feedback > >> I trust you're treating these e-mails in strictest confidence, as I will. > > yes, do not worry. > >> >> >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: On >> Behalf Of Andrew Dessler >> Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2012 10:59 AM >> To: Gillis, Justin >> Subject: Re: thoughts on Heartland Leak w.r.t. -
Scientific Consensus in Policy and the Media
An Exercise in Scientific Integrity: Scientific Consensus in Policy and the Media I. The Importance of Scientific Consensus Science is a collaborative effort; over time, the ideas of many scientists are synthesized, modified, clarified, and sometimes discarded altogether as our understanding improves. Thus, science can be viewed as a method of reaching a consensus about the ways in which the world works. 1. From what you know about the scientific method, the peer review process, and the development of scientific theories, what does it mean when a scientific consensus emerges in a given field? 2. When science can have an impact on issues such as public health, environmental sustainability, and areas in which people have ethical or religious concerns (e.g., evolution, cloning), how should the existence of a scientific consensus affect the development of policy? 3. How should policy makers react to a scientific consensus that is politically or economically inconvenient? II. Skepticism Toward Scientific Consensus There are two unfortunate obstacles to an accurate public understanding of scientific consensus and its importance. First is a tendency to exaggerate the number of times scientific consensus has been overturned. This comes, in part, from the excitement of scientists, the public, and the media to new and untested ideas. When these attention- grabbing ideas prove mistaken or exaggerated during subsequent scientific review, this can give the impression that science has “failed.” There are certainly times when scientific consensus has been overturned, but such instances are rare. 4. How should policy makers react to cutting-edge science? Are there situations where policy decisions should be made before a scientific consensus has been reached, or should governments wait until the science is very clear? 5. -
Understanding and Trusting Science
Understanding and Trusting Science MATTHEW H. SLATER, JOANNA K. HUXSTER, JULIA E. BRESTICKER (forthcoming in the Journal for the General Philosophy of Science) Science communication via testimony requires a certain level of trust. But in the context of ideologically-entangled scientific issues, trust is in short supply — particularly when the issues are politically “entangled”. In such cases, cultural values are better predictors than scientific literacy for whether agents trust the publicly-directed claims of the scientific community. In this paper, we argue that a common way of thinking about scientific literacy — as knowledge of particular scientific facts or concepts — ought to give way to a second-order understanding of science as a process as a more important notion for the public’s trust of science. 1. Introduction The state of scientific literacy in America and in other developed nations has been an issue of concern for many decades now (Miller 1983, 2004; Bodmer 1985; OECD 2007). More recently, a palpable anti-science sentiment has become more prominent (McCright and Dunlap 2011; Kahan 2015). This is reflected, in part, by the fact that large portions of the public remain intransigent with respect to their dismissal of policy-relevant science, such as that concerning the risks of anthropogenic climate change (Leiserowitz et al. 2016). Given the amount of attention that scientific education and communication have received in the intervening decades, these facts may seem a little surprising. Why have we failed to bring about better outcomes? A number of plausible explanations could be cited, from the persistence of problematic models of science communication to the increasing prominence of well-funded anti-science groups (Dunlap and McCright 2010, 2011; Brulle 2014). -
Some Basic Questions About Climate Models David B
Professional paper Some basic questions about climate models David B. South, Peter Brown and Bill Dyck1 ome foresters are concerned about increasing CO2 models? If not, why not? levels in the atmosphere while others doubt that CO2 Shas been the main driver of climate change over the --------------------- past million years or over the past two centuries (Brown et al. 2008). We three admit that (1) we do not know what the IPCC figure TS.26 includes computer projections future climate will be in the year 2100, (2) we do not pretend of four CO2 emission scenarios for the years 2000 to to know the strength of individual feedback factors, (3) 2025 (IPCC 2007a). Figure 1 is an updated version with extra data points. The mean of the projections for global we do not know how much 600 ppm of CO2 will warm the Earth and (4) we do not know how the climate will affect temperatures are jagged, suggesting that for some years the the price of pine sawlogs in the year 2050 (in either relative temperature is predicted to increase (e.g. 2007) while in or absolute terms). The climate is not a simple system and others the temperature is predicted to decline slightly (e.g. therefore we believe it is important to ask questions. The 2008). However, observed data for 2006, 2007 and 2008 following 15 questions deal mainly with global climate all fall below the projections. Although several models models (GCM). suggest the temperature for 2008 should be about 0.59 °C above the 1961-1990 mean, the value in 2008 was 0.328°C (are all three digits past the decimal point significant?). -
Lindzen and Choi, 2009) Was Subject to Significant Criticisms
Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., 47(4), 377-390, 2011 DOI:10.1007/s13143-011-0023-x On the Observational Determination of Climate Sensitivity and Its Implications Richard S. Lindzen1 and Yong-Sang Choi2 1Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, U. S. A. 2Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Korea (Manuscript received 23 February 2011; revised 22 May 2011; accepted 22 May 2011) © The Korean Meteorological Society and Springer 2011 Abstract: We estimate climate sensitivity from observations, using absorbent in the infrared (greenhouse gases) interfere with the the deseasonalized fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) cooling of the planet, forcing it to become warmer in order to and the concurrent fluctuations in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) emit sufficient infrared radiation to balance the net incoming outgoing radiation from the ERBE (1985-1999) and CERES (2000- sunlight (Lindzen, 1999). By net incoming sunlight, we mean that 2008) satellite instruments. Distinct periods of warming and cooling in the SSTs were used to evaluate feedbacks. An earlier study portion of the sun’s radiation that is not reflected back to space by (Lindzen and Choi, 2009) was subject to significant criticisms. The clouds, aerosols and the earth’s surface. CO2, a relatively minor present paper is an expansion of the earlier paper where the various greenhouse gas, has increased significantly since the beginning of criticisms are taken into account. The present analysis accounts for the industrial age from about 280 ppmv to about 390 ppmv, the 72 day precession period for the ERBE satellite in a more presumably due mostly to man’s emissions.