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The Role of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the Global Energy Scenario

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The Role of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the Global Energy Scenario XLVII Meeting of Ministers | Buenos Aires, Argentina | 6 December | 2017 The Role of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the Global Energy Scenario Panel of High Authorities Dr Sun Xiansheng Secretary General, IEF Riyadh Overview • Global trends and transformations • Observations on Latin America and the Caribbean • Key mile stones going forward Fossil share remains at 57% and 79% to 2040 in IEA and OPEC outlooks World Primary Energy Fuel Shares in 2014 and Outlook for 2040 Transition involves deep transformations IEA and IRENAIEA and OPEC Scenarios World Primary break Energy Shares.with andmain joint IRENAtrends-IEA Perspectives for the Energy Transition 1% 1% 4% 6% 12% 5% 6% 7% 16% 21% 100% 10% 10% 9% 2% 11% 10% 11% 2% 3% 12% 90% 3% 3% 3% 16% 3% 18% 80% 5% 5% 5% 4% 6% 21% 21% 22% 7% 7% 24% 8% 27% 4% 70% 24% 26% 31% 31% 25% 11% 5% 60% 28% 27% 26% 13% 22% 26% 50% 25% 14% 20% 40% 22% Fossil Fossil 29% 28% 27% 18% 17% 30% 23% 24% 22% 21% 12% Fossil 20% 13% 10% 9% 10% 0% IEA OPEC IEA CPS IEA NPS IEA 450 OPEC Ref OPEC A OPEC B IEA/IRENA IEA/IRENA 2014 2040 2050 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables IEF Comparative Analysis Sources: IEF-Resources for the Future Introductory Paper for the Sixth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks February 2016, OECD/IEA and IRENA 2017 Perspectives for the Energy Transition (66% 20Celsius Scenario), OECD/IEA WEO 2016. OPEC WOO 2016 South America is a green power house already Non-fossil shares are well above 50% in key regions Installed Power Capacity by Energy Source 100% 9% 11% 8% 90% 19% 80% 42% 51% 70% 47% 42% 60% 68% 44% 50% 40% 3% 23% 41% 30% 41% 20% 38% 27% 9% 23% 10% 8% 9% 6% 0% 3% 4% Andean States Caribbean Central America Southern Cone Brazil Mexico Coal Oil and Diesel Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Other renewables Non-Fossil Share IEF Analysis of Inter-American Development Bank Data, (2016) Balza, Lenin. H., Ramon Espinasa, and Tomas Serebrisky ‘Energy Needs in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2040 Demand growth will change the energy mix LAC Primary Energy, and Power Use will double by 2040 Mtoe Total Primary Energy Demand Growth 600 160% 140% 500 120% 400 100% 300 80% 60% 200 40% 100 20% 0 0% Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela Others and Caribbean 2013 2040 Percentage Growth (RHS) IEF Analysis of Inter-American Development Bank Data, (2016) Balza, Lenin. H., Ramon Espinasa, and Tomas Serebrisky ‘Energy Needs in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2040 Energy Access, and Efficiency are Key Dialogue on investment & linkages lifts 22 million from poverty Urban Rural Access Percentages vs Total Persons Without Access Persons 100% 7.000.000,00 90% 6.000.000,00 80% 70% 5.000.000,00 60% 4.000.000,00 50% 40% 3.000.000,00 30% 2.000.000,00 20% 1.000.000,00 10% 0% 0,00 Peru Haiti Chile Brazil Belize Bolivia Mexico Guyana Jamaica Panama Ecuador Uruguay Paraguay Barbados Colombia Suriname Honduras Argentina Nicaragua Costa Rica Costa Venezuela Guatamala El Salvador El The Bahamas The Dominican Republic Dominican Trinidad and Tobago and Trinidad Latin America Caribbean Total Persons Without Access (RHS) Urban Access Rural Access IEF Analysis of Inter-American Development Bank Data, (2016) Balza, Lenin. H., Ramon Espinasa, and Tomas Serebrisky ‘Energy Needs in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2040 5 Observations on Latin America and Caribbean Challenges and opportunities 1. Latin America and the Caribbean, offer demand growth, valuable biofuel technologies in transport, and large potential for natural gas, and renewables to balance markets. 2. Focus on efficiency gains, market reforms, and integration becomes more important as energy demand grows from low per-capita consumption, and greater energy access. 3. South America’s reliance on hydro power, and biofuels is an asset to energy security, and sustainable development, but also makes it vulnerable to unseasonal weather. 4. Dialogue on the IEF platform will accelerate investment in the energy infrastructures that balanced, and efficient market development need for inclusive growth. 5. Enhancing data transparency in LAC energy markets is key as engagement at the recent 4th GECF Summit JODI Gas Seminar IEF hosted in Bolivia showes Latin America & Caribbean are part of the Dialogue Key events in 2018: 1. 8th Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks 14 February 2018 | Riyadh, Saudi Arabia 2. 6th IEA-IEF-OPEC Workshop on Physical and Financial Market Interactions March 2018 | Vienna, Austria 3. 16th IEF Ministerial Energy Forum “The Future of Global Energy Security” 10-12 April 2018 | New Delhi, India 4. 6th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum “Energy Security, Transition ,and Resiliency” November 2018, Barcelona, Spain .
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