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Hanmi Pharmaceutical

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Hanmi Pharmaceutical Hanmi Pharmaceutical (128940 KS ) Caution against excessive pessimism over domestic firms’ R&D capabilities Healthcare Janssen returns rights to obesity treatment Company Report Yesterday, Hanmi Pharmaceutical said that Janssen has returned the rights to the July 4, 2019 obesity/diabetes treatment HM12525A. The asset was originally licensed to Janssen in November 2015 in a deal worth US$915mn, which included a US$105mn up-front. The company added that Janssen made the decision after HM12525A failed to meet its internal target for glucose control in obesity patients with diabetes in two recently completed phase 2 trials, though the primary outcome of weight loss was achieved . (Maintain) Buy Hanmi Pharmaceutical does not have to return the US$105mn it had received. Target Price (12M, W) ▼ 615,000 Lower TP to W615,000 to reflect removal of HM12525A We lower our target price on Hanmi Pharmaceutical from W680,000 to W615,000, as Share Price (07/03/19, W) 414,500 we removed HM12525A from our valuation following the latest news. We previously valued HM12525A at W585.8bn. While there is a po ssibility HM12525A could still be Expected Return 48% developed into an obesity treatment, as it is believed to have shown double-digit weight loss (based on kilograms) in the phase 2 studies, we took a conservative approach and stripped out its entire value. That said, our t arget price reduction is OP (19F, Wbn) 66 modest (around 10%), as we previously applied only a 31.6% probability of success for Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 75 biologics in the phase 2 stage. EPS Growth (19F, %) 14.6 While the news is disappointing, we caution against excessive pessimism Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -23.1 over domestic firms’ R&D capabilities P/E (19F, x) 168.8 While the challenges of developing a new drug are widely known, the news is still Market P/E (19F, x) 12.5 disappointing, given the significance of the deal in terms of its size (W1tr) and the KOSPI 2,096.02 partner (big pharma). The news may be particularly hard for investors to swallow Market Cap (Wbn) 4,813 because it comes at a time of heightened worries over domestic biotech firms’ phase 3 Shares Outstanding (mn) 12 data. Free Float (%) 58.0 However, we note that several licensing agreements have been made this year, Foreign Ownership (%) 15.6 including Yuhan’s (000100 KS/Buy/TP: W310,000/CP: W242,500) massive deals with Beta (12M) 0.95 Gilead (GILD US/CP: US$69.00) and Boehringer Ingelheim, OliX’s (226950 KQ/CP: 52-Week Low 372,363 W41,200) deal with Thea, and LegoChem Biosciences’ (141080 KQ/CP: W51,400) deal 52-Week High 505,315 with Millennium Pharmaceuticals (the oncology subsidiary of Japan’s largest drug (%) 1M 6M 12M company, Takeda Pharmaceuticals). SK Biopharmaceuticals, which is getting ready to Absolute 1.2 -4.8 3.9 go public, has also licensed out its epilepsy drug cenobamate to Arvelle Therapeutics, Relative -0.1 -9.5 12.7 while its sleep disorder drug solriamfetol will hit the US market next week. Given such meaningful progress from a wide range of drug developers, we do not think investors 130 Hanmi Pharmaceutical KOSPI should be too concerned about the R&D capabilities of domestic companies. 120 110 In addition, despite the return of rights to its obesity/diabetes treatment, we believe 100 Hanmi Pharmaceutical still has a number of attractive candidates, including: 1) a triple 90 agonist to treat nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), which is currently in a phase 1 80 trial; 2) LAPS glucagon, which has shown better weight loss effects than HM12525A; 3) 70 HM43239, which is expected to overcome resistance to existing FLT3 inhibitors; and 4) 6.18 10.18 2.19 6.19 a bispecific antibody, for which investigational new drug (IND) applications for phase 1 trials are expected to be filed in the US and China this year. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Biotech/Healthcare ] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 883 917 1,016 1,056 1,239 1,507 Taehee Kim +822 -3774 -6813 OP (Wbn) 27 82 84 66 119 214 [email protected] OP margin (%) 3.1 8.9 8.3 6.3 9.6 14.2 NP (Wbn) 23 60 25 29 53 107 EPS (W) 2,009 5,204 2,144 2,456 4,551 9,189 ROE (%) 3.5 8.8 3.5 4.0 7.0 13.0 P/E (x) 136.9 110.1 216.5 168.8 91.1 45.1 P/B (x) 4.8 9.1 7.4 6.4 6.1 5.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates July 4, 2019 Hanmi Pharmaceutical Table 1. Valuation table Fair value (Wbn) Notes Domestic 1,312.5 25x (avg. multiple before reflection of new drug value) 12MF EBITDA Hanmi Beijing 720.5 25x 12MF net profit (based on ownership stake) Hanmi Fine Chemical 12.7 15x 12MF net profit (based on ownership stake) New drug value 5,651.0 Quantum Project 4,547.3 LAPS-GLP-1/GCG 585.8 Excluded due to rights return RAF inhibitor 152.2 Rolontis 854.4 Poziotinib 97.1 Net debt 539.6 Target market cap 7,157.2 No. of shares 11,612.2 ‘000 shares TP 616,353 W Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Out-licensing cases from the past year Company Date Partner Indication Development Milestones Up-front JW Pharmaceutical 8/24/18 Leo Pharma Atopy Preclinical US$400mn US$17mn Yuhan 11/3/18 Janssen Lung cancer Phase 2 US$1,255mn US$50mn Kolon TissueGene 11/19/18 Mundipharma Degenerative arthritis Marketed (Korea) US$590mn US$26.58mn Phase 1b/2a iNtRON 11/20/18 Roivant Sciences Super bacteria US$670mn US$10mn (Korea) Phase 1 ABL 11/30/18 TRIGR Therapeutics Anticancer US$595mn US$5mn (Korea) Yuhan 1/6/19 Gilead NASH Candidate substance US$785mn US$15mn SK Biopharm 2/13/19 Arvelle Therapeutics Epilepsy NDA (US) US$530mn US$100mn OliX 3/15/19 Thea Macular degeneration Preclinical EUR63mn EUR2mn Anti -cance r LegoChem Bio 3/22/19 Millennium Preclinical W454.8bn W8.16bn (three targets) Yuhan 7/1/19 Boehringer Ingelheim NASH Preclinical US$870mn US$40mn Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 July 4, 2019 Hanmi Pharmaceutical Hanmi Pharmaceutical (128940 KS/Buy/TP: W615,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue 1,016 1,056 1,239 1,507 Current Assets 564 622 706 877 Cost of Sales 475 490 571 690 Cash and Cash Equivalents 67 106 101 140 Gross Profit 541 566 668 817 AR & Other Receivables 183 190 222 271 SG&A Expenses 457 500 548 603 Inventories 248 258 302 367 Operating Profit (Adj) 84 66 119 214 Other Current Assets 66 68 81 99 Operating Profit 84 66 119 214 Non-Current Assets 1,127 1,146 1,158 1,174 Non-Operating Profit -34 -20 -24 -22 Investments in Associates 0 0 0 0 Net Financial Income -15 -17 -17 -17 Property, Plant and Equipment 900 906 913 921 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 61 63 65 67 Pretax Profit 50 46 95 192 Total Assets 1,691 1,768 1,865 2,051 Income Tax 16 7 22 45 Current Liabilities 435 472 495 531 Profit from Continuing Operations 34 39 73 146 AP & Other Payables 149 157 184 224 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 215 258 251 243 Net Profit 34 39 73 146 Other Current Liabilities 71 57 60 64 Controlling Interests 25 29 53 107 Non-Current Liabilities 467 473 480 490 Non-Controlling Interests 9 11 20 40 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 416 420 419 419 Total Comprehensive Profit 28 39 73 146 Other Non-Current Liabilities 51 53 61 71 Controlling Interests 19 27 50 101 Total Liabilities 902 945 975 1,020 Non-Controlling Interests 9 12 23 45 Controlling Interests 703 726 774 874 EBITDA 131 114 167 262 Capital Stock 28 28 28 28 FCF (Free Cash Flow) -156 15 22 71 Capital Surplus 415 415 415 415 EBITDA Margin (%) 12.9 10.8 13.5 17.4 Retained Earnings 288 311 358 459 Operating Profit Margin (%) 8.3 6.3 9.6 14.2 Non-Controlling Interests 86 97 116 156 Net Profit Margin (%) 2.5 2.7 4.3 7.1 Stockholders' Equity 789 823 890 1,030 Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Cash Flows from Op Activities 26 62 70 121 P/E (x) 216.5 168.8 91.1 45.1 Net Profit 34 39 73 146 P/CF (x) 35.4 44.6 30.9 19.1 Non-Cash Income and Expense 118 69 83 106 P/B (x) 7.4 6.4 6.1 5.4 Depreciation 41 41 41 42 EV/EBITDA (x) 45.1 47.9 32.7 20.8 Amortization 6 6 6 7 EPS (W) 2,144 2,456 4,551 9,189 Others 71 22 36 57 CFPS (W) 13,114 9,286 13,407 21,736 Chg in Working Capital -98 -21 -46 -70 BPS (W) 62,395 64,364 68,427 77,128 Chg in AR & Other Receivables 59 -7 -32 -47 DPS (W) 490 490 490 490 Chg in Inventories 0 -10 -44 -65 Payout ratio (%) 16.6 14.5 7.8 3.9 Chg in AP & Other Payables 3 2 8 12 Dividend Yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Income Tax Paid -14 -7 -22 -45 Revenue Growth (%) 10.8 3.9 17.3 21.6 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -146 -64 -62 -68 EBITDA Growth (%) 10.1 -13.0 46.5 56.9 Chg in PP&E -182 -47 -48 -50 Operating Profit Growth (%) 2.4 -21.4 80.3 79.8 Chg in Intangible Assets -29 -8 -8 -9 EPS Growth (%) -58.8 14.6 85.3 101.9 Chg in Financial Assets 116 -2 -9 -13 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 4.8 5.9 6.2 6.3 Others -51 -7 3 4 Inventory Turnover (x) 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 Cash Flows from Fin Activities 140 41 -13 -14 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 10.4 10.8 11.4 11.5 Chg in Financial Liabilities 155 46 -8 -8 ROA (%) 2.0 2.3 4.0 7.5 Chg in Equity 0 0 0 0 ROE (%) 3.5 4.0 7.0 13.0 Dividends Paid -9 -6 -6 -6 ROIC (%) 5.1 4.6 7.1 12.0 Others -6 1 1 0 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 114.3 114.9 109.6 99.0 Increase (Decrease) in Cash 20 38 -5 39 Current Ratio (%) 129.7 131.9 142.7 165.1 Beginning
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