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November 3, 2015 November 3, 2015 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Hanjin Transportation (002320/Buy/TP: W60,000) Initiate coverage KOSPI 2,048.40 13.16 0.65 Parcel delivery and stevedoring to lead the way KOSPI 200 252.12 1.52 0.61 KOSDAQ 682.13 2.12 0.31 SK Telecom (017670/Buy/TP: W350,000) Seeking growth in media to offset slowdown in telecom Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value Emart (139480/Buy/TP: W306,000) KOSPI 582,904 5,731 3Q profit improves despite external headwinds KOSPI 200 90,900 4,219 KOSDAQ 719,371 3,481 Market Cap (Wbn) Sector News & Analysis Value Auto (Overweight) KOSPI 1,296,503 October global production - The beginning of an upcycle KOSDAQ 193,838 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Healthcare (Overweight) Buy Sell Net Healthcare Weekly Briefing Foreign 1,557 1,528 30 Institutional 1,269 1,165 104 Economy & Strategy Update Retail 2,679 2,988 -310 November Model Portfolio KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Focus on earnings, dividends, and share buybacks Foreign 164 162 2 Institutional 102 136 -33 Retail 3,207 3,175 33 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,246 1,129 117 KOSDAQ 41 48 -7 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 501 319 49 KOSDAQ 505 524 75 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,352,000 -31,000 407 SK C&C 254,000 -15,000 387 SK Telecom 230,000 -8,500 242 KODEX LEVERAGE 10,680 195 231 DSME 7,030 500 176 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Solco Biomedical 2,110 195 178 NaturalendoTech 27,150 4,200 148 Good People 3,415 25 140 New Pride 12,600 -1,450 126 SHINHOO 7,340 -1,850 98 Note: As of November 3, 2015 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Hanjin Transportation (002320 KS) Parcel delivery and stevedoring to lead the way Logistics An asset-based logistics provider oriented toward parcel delivery Hanjin Transportation, the logistics arm of the Hanjin Group (established in 1958), Initiation Report mainly engages in ground transport, stevedoring, shipping, and parcel delivery October 28, 2015 operations. As of 2014, parcel delivery accounted for 27.3% of revenue, ground transport 27.2%, and stevedoring 15.8%. Among the company’s business divisions, we believe investors should pay particular attention to parcel delivery, which generates (Initiate) Buy more than 27% of revenue and 47% of operating profit. Investment points: Urban logistics complex and container terminals Target Price (12M, W) 60,000 1) Parcel delivery reinforced by the new Seoul Integrated Freight Terminal : Major Share Price (10/28/15, W) 45,100 retailers and manufacturers (cargo owners) are increasingly coming to realize the importance of delivery service competitiveness. The new Seoul Integrated Freight Expected Return 33% Terminal commenced operations in September, boosting Hanjin Transportation’s terminal capacity by 30%. Given rapid market growth, as well as the favorable location and state-of-the-art facilities of the new complex, we expect terminal utilization ratio to OP (15F, Wbn) 46 reach the mid-80% level in 4Q15 . Volume growth should lead to operating leverage Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 47 effects, further lifting margins. EPS Growth (15F, %) 149.3 2) Opportunities from container terminals: We believe stevedoring will grow into a Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 20.6 major business that contributes 10-13% of the company’s operating profit (vs. 3.2% in P/E (15F, x) 5.0 2014), driven by the Pyeongtaek Container Terminal (which was acquired in 2Q15) and Market P/E (15F, x) 11.9 Incheon New Port Terminal A (which is set to open in early 2016). There are also talks of KOSPI 2,042.51 the company potentially acquiring Hanjin Newport (Pusan Newport International Market Cap (Wbn) 540 Terminal) from Hanjin Shipping. If the deal goes through, this could boost our 2016 Shares Outstanding (mn) 12 operating profit estimate by 38.3%. Free Float (%) 65.3 3) Non-operating assets: In July, Hanjin Transportation sold its stake (5.79mn shares) in Foreign Ownership (%) 9.5 Korean Air for W217bn. The company also has holdings in Seoul Express Bus Terminal Beta (12M) 1.69 52-Week Low 40,500 valued at roughly W160bn. We believe the company will use the proceeds from its 52-Week High 69,200 Korean Air stake sale to pay down its debt. As such, debt-to-equity ratio and interest expenses should decline, which should in turn drive up ROE. (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M Absolute -6.0 -25.0 -14.4 Initiate coverage with Buy and TP of W60,000 Relative -10.6 -21.1 -19.3 We initiate our coverage on Hanjin Transportation with a Buy recommendation and target price of W60,000. We derived our target price using a sum-of-the-parts 150 HanjinTrnspt KOSPI methodology. With the Korean Air stake sale now complete and earnings set to 130 meaningfully improve, we only reflected non-operating assets that are readily disposable 110 into our valuation. Our target price implies a 2016F P/B of 0.8x , which we believe is 90 highly achievable, given the expected pace of earnings growth led by parcel delivery. 70 Furthermore, if the Hanjin Newport acquisition comes to pass, this would boost 10.14 2.15 6.15 10.15 earnings, potentially leading to multiple expansion. Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 1,437 1,500 1,533 1,646 1,778 1,831 [Transportation/Energyy] OP (Wbn) 38 40 53 46 64 69 Choong-hyun Kim OP margin (%) 2.6 2.7 3.5 2.8 3.6 3.8 +822-768-4126 NP (Wbn) -10 -7 44 108 49 54 [email protected] EPS (W) -842 -577 3,634 9,059 4,090 4,476 ROE (%) -1.3 -1.0 5.9 13.4 5.6 5.9 Jay JH Ryu P/E (x) - - 14.9 5.0 11.0 10.1 +822-768-4175 P/B (x) 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 jay.ryu @dwsec.com Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Ko rea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. SK Telecom (017670 KS) Seeking growth in media to offset slowdown in telecom Telecom Service CJ HelloVision acquisition is official On November 2 nd , SK Telecom (SKT) officially disclosed its decision to acquire CJ Company Update HelloVision. The all-cash deal will cost a total of W1tr, with SKT to initially spend W500bn on April 1, 2016, and another W500bn if the company decides to exercise a call November 3, 2015 option within the subsequent five years. The acquisition will take place in the following three stages: (Maintain) Buy 1) SKT will purchase a 30% stake in CJ HelloVision from CJ O Shopping. 2) CJ HelloVision will then merge with SK Broadband, after which SKT will own a 75. 29% Target Price (12M, W) 350,000 stake in the combined company. Share Price (11/02/15, W) 238,500 3) SKT will have the call option to purchase CJ O Shopping’s remaining 23.92% stake in CJ HelloVision (8.44% in the merged company) within five years from the closing of th e first transaction. Expected Return 47% We believe the deal will help SKT establish a dominant position in the pay-TV and fixed- line communications markets. OP (15F, Wbn) 1,814 Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 1,857 3Q15 review: Telecom business slowing down The same day as the announcement, SKT reported its 3Q earnings results, which fell EPS Growth (15F, %) -8.2 short of both our expectations and the consensus. Parent wireless revenue declined Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 20.5 YoY, weighed by lower interconnection fees, the elimination of sign-up fees, and a P/E (15F, x) 11.6 higher number of subscribers opting for discounted rates. The LTE subscriber Market P/E (15F, x) 11.8 percentage stood at 65%, entering late-cycle levels, while ARPU (based on billings) KOSPI 2,035.24 remained largely flat YoY and QoQ. Market Cap (Wbn) 19,258 Marketing spend continued to trend lower, falling 10% YoY. Depreciation expenses, Shares Outstanding (mn) 81 however, were la rger than anticipated, increasing at a steeper rate YoY than in 1H.
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