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February 6, 2013 February 6, 2013 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Yuhan (Buy/TP: W200,000) KOSPI 1,936.19 -1.99 -0.10 Counting on APIs and Yuhan Chemical KOSPI 200 254.31 -0.51 -0.20 KOSDAQ 502.56 4.40 0.88 NCsoft (Buy/TP: W200,000) Lower TP New significant momentum in 2013 Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 344,831 3,599 Sector News & Analysis KOSPI 200 70,913 2,872 KOSDAQ 415,983 1,521 Media (Overweight) Easterlin Paradox: Watch for entertainment stocks Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,120,726 Economy & Strategy Update KOSDAQ 110,660 Fixed Income Monthly (Factor) KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Yields set to obey economic forces Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,074 1,163 -89 Institutional 859 869 -10 Retail 1,650 1,544 106 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 101 63 38 Institutional 94 72 22 Retail 1,329 1,388 -59 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 624 793 -169 KOSDAQ 14 15 0 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 464 339 85 KOSDAQ 624 297 79 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value KODEX LEVERAGE 11,985 -30 207 Samsung Electronics 1,427,000 -8,000 192 SK Telecom 181,500 7,000 142 Hynix 24,500 800 140 NCsoft 128,000 -4,500 124 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Speco 3,650 -60 48 Victek 2,640 -225 41 Digital Innovation Display 5,920 -430 32 OSSTEM IMPLANT 36,500 2,700 27 4,805 15 25 Note: As of February 6, 2013 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. February 6, 2013 Company Report Yuhan (000100 KS) Pharmaceutical Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Counting on APIs and Yuhan Chemical Irene Kim +822-768-3251 4Q12 review: OP in line, net profit beats consensus [email protected] Yuhan recorded 4Q revenues (non-consolidated K-IFRS) of W193.9bn (+15.5%YoY), an operating profit of W7.9bn (+39.8% YoY), and a net profit of W28bn (+74.2%YoY). Operating profit was in line with the market consensus. Net profit surprised to the upside due to: 1) stronger active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) sales at Yuhan Chemical, which boosted equity-method gains, and 2) increases in non-operating profits, including W3.2bn in government R&D subsidies and W21.6bn in financial income (dividend and interest income). New API release, improved margins make valuation attractive Buy (Maintain) Yuhan has been actively licensing in original drugs from multinational pharmaceuticals to Target Price (12M, W) 200,000 defend against regulatory reductions in drug prices (hurting growth). We project 2013 Share Price (02/05/13, W) 177,000 revenue growth of greater than 12% at the firmÊs ETC unit. And we expect robust Expected Return (%) 13.0 pharmaceutical sales of new licensed-in diabetes treatments, Tradjenta (Boehringer/Lilly) EPS Growth (13F, %) -4.6 and a Tradjenta combination treatment (DPP-4 inhibitor + metformin), on top of existing Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 18.0 licensed-in drugs like Twynsta (a hypertension combination treatment) and Prevnar 13 (a P/E (13F, x) 30.4 pneumococcal vaccine). Market P/E (13F, x) 9.2 However, growing exposure to licensed-in drugs is pushing up YuhanÊs COGS ratio, KOSPI 1,938.18 limiting room for upside to OP margins despite solid top-line growth. We thus believe Market Cap (Wbn) 1,974 more important catalysts for margins and valuation will be: 1) the launches of new APIs Shares Outstanding (mn) 11 (for hepatitis C treatments and original drugs), and 2) the strength of Yuhan Chemical. Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 39 APIs typically generate higher margins in the early stages of product launches; we thus Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 7 expect APIs to play an important role in improving YuhanÊs profitability for some time. Dividend Yield (13F, %) 0.7 Free Float (%) 76.9 Maintain Buy with TP of W200,000 52-Week Low (W) 105,000 We maintain our Buy call on Yuhan with a target price of W200,000. We believe a higher 52-Week High (W) 195,000 COGS burden could limit OPM gains, but forecast sharp growth in net profits from the Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 0.28 launch of a new API, as well as earnings growth at Yuhan Chemical. Our 2013F Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 2.1 consolidated EPS of W11,564 implies a P/E of 16x, cheaper than other top pharmaceuticals. Foreign Ownership (%) 26.7 Major Shareholder(s) We highlight three key points. 1) Yuhan is making up for the absence of a drug pipeline Yuhan Foundation et al. (15.62%) through new licensed-in drugs, such as Tradjenta, Viread (hepatitis B treatment), and National Pension Service (9.89%) Prevnar 13. 2) Equity-method gains have been rapidly increasing, aided by new products Yuhan ESOP (7.95%) and export growth at Yuhan Chemical. 3) Sales of over-the-counter drugs (Beecom-C, Price Performance Antiphlamine, etc.) have also been increasing. (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -2.5 41.0 30.2 Relative 1.2 36.2 31.9 § Earnings & Valuation Metrics Share price FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDAFCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 160 KOSPI (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 140 12/10 649 92 14.2 134 11,794 103 60 13.1 14.7 1.8 16.1 120 12/11 668 49 7.4 83 7,297 68 15 7.7 17.5 1.2 17.3 100 12/12P 763 34 4.5 70 6,109 42 1 6.3 28.3 1.6 40.2 80 12/13F 850 43 5.1 66 5,830 55 24 5.8 30.4 1.6 31.0 60 12/14F 935 66 7.1 86 7,546 78 41 7.1 23.5 1.5 21.6 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 Notes: All figures are based on non-consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. February 6, 2013 Company Report NCsoft (036570 KS) Game Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. New significant momentum in 2013 Chang-kwean Kim +822-768-4321 A plethora of new games in 2013 [email protected] We anticipate new significant game momentum beginning this March due to the 1Q release of the mobile version of Lineage I (co-developed with top Japanese mobile game provider GREE), as well as from Blade & Soul, which is scheduled to hit the Chinese market in 3Q (following a large-scale 1H beta test). We anticipate NCsoft will also launch a mobile version of Blade & Soul in 1H through one of JapanÊs leading mobile-gaming platform operators, DeNA. NCsoft plans to roll out its new title WildStar (currently being developed by US-based Carbine Studios) in 2H using CD packages in the US and Europe. It also intends to launch Guild Wars 2 in China, Taiwan, and Japan. An expansion pack for Guild Wars 2 is slated for a 2H release in the US Buy (Maintain) and Europe. Target Price (12M, W) 200,000 We are not overly concerned about release delays or outright flops (as we have seen in Share Price (02/05/13, W) 132,500 the past), as current share prices and earnings expectations do not seem to price in Expected Return (%) 50.9 prospects for new games. EPS Growth (13F, %) 13.3 Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 18.0 4Q earnings stronger than expected thanks to solid Guild Wars 2 sales P/E (13F, x) 16.3 NCsoft reported 4Q revenues of W283.3bn (+103.9% YoY) and an operating profit of Market P/E (13F, x) 9.2 W113.1bn (+654.4% YoY) primarily due to the newly released Guild Wars 2 (W119bn in KOSPI 1,938.18 sales) and Lineage I (W64.8bn). The latter title saw related sales boosted by micro- Market Cap (Wbn) 2,902 transaction events. Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 385 Lower TP by 29% to W200,000 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 60 Dividend Yield (13F, %) 0.8 We maintain our Buy call on NCsoft, but cut our target price from W280,000 to W200,000. Free Float (%) 76.3 We adjusted down our 2013F EPS by 34.7% after factoring in the companyÊs 2013 52-Week Low (W) 131,500 business plan. NCsoft guided 2013 revenues of W790bn, and an operating profit of 52-Week High (W) 328,000 W170bn (excluding potential new revenues from China).
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