Elusive Partnership: US and European Policies In
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Elusive Partnership: U.S. and European Policies in the Near East and the Gulf Rita Hauser J. Robinson West Marc C. Ginsberg Geoffrey Kemp Craig Kennedy Christopher J. Makins James Steinberg Policy Paper September 2002 For further information about the Atlantic Council of the United States and/or its Program on Transatlantic Relations, please call 202-778-4990. Information on Atlantic Council Programs and publications is available on the world wide web at http://www.acus.org Requests or comments may be sent to the Atlantic Council via Internet at [email protected] or to: The Atlantic Council of the United States 910 17th St. NW, Suite 1000 Washington, DC 20006 For further information about the German Marshall Fund of the United States, please call 202-745-3950 Information on German Marshall Fund Programs and publications is available on the world wide web at http://www.gmfus.org Requests or comments may be sent to the German Marshall Fund via Internet at [email protected] or to: The German Marshall Fund of the United States 1744 R Street NW Washington, DC 20009 Table of Contents Foreword ................................................................................................................................................v Executive Summary..............................................................................................................................vii I. The Broader Context....................................................................................................................1 U.S.-European Relations on the Middle East.................................................................1 Europe and the Bush Administration..............................................................................4 The Aftermath of 9/11. .....................................................................................................6 II. European Attitudes Towards the Problems of the Middle East..........................................7 The Israeli-Palestinian Question.......................................................................................7 Iraq......................................................................................................................................13 Iran......................................................................................................................................17 The Directions and Dynamics of the Middle East Region.........................................20 Obstacles to Transatlantic Cooperation ........................................................................23 III. Conclusions and Recommendations.....................................................................................25 Members of the Atlantic Council/German Marshall Fund Delegation ..................................................31 Foreword During the time of transatlantic tensions in the last year or more, no area has contributed more to the public appearance of disagreement than the Middle East, with its arc of instability and crises stretching from Israel and the West Bank to Iraq and Iran and connecting to the problems of the Caucasus and Central Asia. With their respective missions dedicated to the improvement of transatlantic relations and the promotion of constructive transatlantic dialogue, the Atlantic Council of the United States and the German Marshall Fund of the United States decided that it would be timely to take an initiative related to these issues. The two institutions accordingly sent a delegation of respected U.S. Middle East experts to Europe for a series of discussions with government and non-government leaders to explore the ways in which greater transatlantic cooperation, or at least complementarity of policy, might be achieved. This report reflects the results of this initiative. The joint delegation visited four European capitals – in order, Paris, Berlin, Brussels and London – during the week of 8-12 July, 2002. The members of the delegation were the authors of this report.1 In Paris, Berlin and London the delegation had extensive meetings with senior government officials from various ministries and several meetings with prominent individuals knowledgeable about the Middle East from the corporate, academic, media and NGO communities. In Brussels the delegation met with senior officials of the Council of Ministers of the European Union and of the European Commission, and with media and NGO representatives with extensive knowledge of the Middle East. At all its meetings in Europe, the delegation covered a broad range of subjects, from the social, economic, political and demographic forces driving change in the countries of the region to the specific issues associated with the Israeli-Palestinian question, the problems related to Iraq and the future of Iran-West relations. This report presents the delegation’s assessment of European attitudes and its conclusions and recommendations for the policies of the U.S. government, the principal governments of Western Europe and the European Union as a whole. The report represents the consensus of the views of the delegation members, although not every member of the delegation would necessarily subscribe to every judgment in the report. This project was made possible by generous grants from the Hauser Foundation and the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Christopher J. Makins Craig Kennedy President, The Atlantic Council President, The German Marshall Fund 1 Marc Ginsberg was prevented at the last moment from traveling to Europe by other professional commitments. However, he participated in the delegation’s pre-trip briefings and in the post-trip discussions and in the drafting of this report. Elusive Partnership: U.S. and European Policies in the Near East and the Gulf Executive Summary The Broader Context The current transatlantic relationship as it concerns the Middle East can only be understood in a broader context. The History of U.S.-European Relations on the Middle East. The affairs of the Middle East have been uniquely contentious between the principal European countries and the United States for over 50 years. This has derived primarily from differing approaches to the Arab-Israel problem. The 1990s were an unusual and short-lived interlude in this history of differences. The recent emergence of the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union and a growing awareness of a broader common European interest in the region based on history, proximity, trade, migration and the changing role of Islam, have prompted the European Union to engage increasingly in the region and to seek a position as a true partner for the United States and not just as ‘a wallet.’ Europe and the Bush Administration. Many difficulties arose between the new U.S. administration and European governments in 2001. Some of these issues have receded. But many Europeans have continued to criticize what they see as the new administration’s unilateralist approach to international affairs that does not view the Atlantic Alliance as central to U.S. interests. The Aftermath of 9/11. The terrorist attacks of September 11 and their aftermath have complicated the transatlantic dialogue, notably by intensifying some negative perceptions on both sides of the ocean. This background has created a premium on clarity, frankness and timeliness in the intergovernmental dialogue and consultation on current Middle East issues that has not always been achieved. viii ELUSIVE PARTNERSHIP: U.S. AND EUROPEAN POLICIES IN THE NEAR EAST AND THE GULF European Attitudes Towards the Problems of the Middle East The Israeli-Palestinian Question. Many Europeans support the goals of President Bush’s speech on June 24, 2002. Unlike the U.S. government, they believe that progress must be sought along several tracks simultaneously: the reform of the Palestinian Authority, security issues, the negotiation of a political settlement and humanitarian relief in the West Bank and Gaza. European officials are more than willing to try to thread their way through the minefield of political obstacles – several of them, as they see it, of U.S. creation – towards these goals. But they believe this will require a more continuous and extensive U.S. commitment. Moreover they are concerned about some worst case scenarios that could result from the actions of extremists on both sides and the possibility that these could spell the end of the political road mapped by Security Council Resolution 242. They fear that this could lead to a serious transatlantic rift. Europeans see every reason not to depart from that road on the grounds that doing so would likely lead to less stability on one side or the other. To the extent that the new U.S. policy is intended to impart momentum to these familiar objectives, they are willing to support it. But many are apprehensive that the administration has either not fully thought through the implications of its statements or, worse, decided not to intervene decisively to prevent the idea of a two state settlement being progressively eroded and destroyed. Iraq. There is broad transatlantic agreement that Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq represents a real threat to the allies because of its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs. But there is less agreement on how to deal with this. Europeans typically raise several questions: how urgent is the problem; whether Saddam Hussein can be contained; the grounds for an eventual military attack on Iraq; the issue of the mandate for action; the need to press for new UN inspections