SEPTEMBER | 1

IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin 2011 REVIEW

3 ANGOLA IN 2011: WEST AFRICA, ASIA, AND SECURITY EXPORTS Vasco Martins IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin: 2011 Review | 3

Angola in 2011: West Africa, Asia, and Security Exports VASCO MARTINS Researcher, Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS)

2011 has been a year of change in the African continent. the slogans “32 é muito” (32 is too much), in reference When pundits and observers pondered African politics in to the number of years Angolan President José Eduardo 2010, most pointed to the upcoming elections in Angola, dos Santos has held power.1 Even when the acquisition, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) or Zimbabwe manifestation and usage of power in Africa begs for a as a source of political conflict. However, apart from the different analytical approach than the western model of Côte d’Ivoire, change and political conflict erupted not power or state power, African leaders are nevertheless in sub-Saharan Africa but mainly in northern Africa. not ambiguous to manifestations of popular discontent, Instead, a revolt in Tunisia in December 2010 triggered a which ultimately provide feedback on the acceptability wave of regime change that is having a profound impact and legitimacy of each leader. The possible succession of on how countries like Angola and Zimbabwe arrange President José Eduardo dos Santos – although unclear their foreign policy and organize their political inclination as to who would replace the decade long leader – might in the international arena in 2011. Before the Arab open pockets of conflict, as a disgruntled population is Spring, Africa had a number of authoritarian leaders who faced with the opportunity of overturning the regime. had been in power for decades. Yet, in less than half a Inserted in a climate of possible political instability with year only Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Uganda elections, successions and several demonstrations, the and Zimbabwe in sub-Saharan Africa were under the Angolan government was forced to invest more of its rule of long standing leaders. Such an intense decrease political resources and time in dealing with potential in- in number had deep consequences inside each country. ternal situations than in raw foreign policy, even though The revolts’ quick pace, images of popular mobilization certain vectors of it, namely security exports – related to and a sense of inevitably that change would indeed come, military missions and the passing of security know-how provoked a counter-current of containment by many to other countries –, financial investment and a focus on African governments, both domestically and externally. new and old regions was maintained. Angola is a somewhat politically closed country. Besides exhibiting features of profound social trauma its Angola and West Africa government is accused by many of having authoritarian The foreign policy of Angola toward West Africa in 2011 tendencies that underpin the reasons for the social revolved around the electoral conflict of the Côte d’Ivoire, agitation of late. Angola and Zimbabwe have presidential opposing Alassane Ouattara to Laurent Gbagbo, and in elections scheduled for 2012, which under the present the establishment of a security sector reform mission in circumstances will have to provide some degree of change Guinea-Bissau. British ambassador to Angola Richard inside each country. Even though it is hard to speak of an Wildash stated that “the international community until Arab precedent as an inevitable foreign paradigm hitting now does not understand the importance of Angola in the sub-Saharan African countries, perhaps even following region and the world”,2 while pointing to the country’s ca- any type of domino-theory, these events must not be pacity to settle and negotiate conflicts, as currently wit- disregarded by the slightest, as the possibility of achieving nessed in the Côte d’Ivoire.3 Indeed, ambassador Richard political change in Angola is already at work in the minds of a discontent, though traumatized, population. 1 “Centenas de mensagens SMS contestam José Eduardo dos Santos” (Voice of Following the Arab revolts, youth protests began to be America, 26 August 2011). organized and started taking the streets of Angola, often 2 “International community should understand importance of Angola” (Angola- Press, 17 January 2011). meeting violent police crackdown. The demonstrations 3 See Paulo Gorjão, “Côte d’Ivoire: A test tube for Angola’s regional policy?” (IPRIS which began on 7 March 2011 carried among others, Viewpoints, No. 29, December 2010); and, Vasco Martins, “An unshaken alliance: Angola’s stance in the Côte d’Ivoire” (IPRIS Viewpoints, No. 41, March 2011). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin: 2011 Review | 4

Wildash is very close to the truth. Angola had a very im- with the first joint commission between the two countries portant role in the unraveling of the Côte d’Ivoire crisis, on 9 April 2011,6 a meeting mostly based on energy coop- mainly due to old connections between the party in power eration. With regard to Guinea-Bissau, the country rep- in Angola, the MPLA, and Laurent Gbagbo. Many leaders resents a stronghold of Angolan presence and influence and international organizations flew to Luanda to seek in West Africa. With the signing of the technical-military President José Eduardo dos Santos and gauge his posi- assistance protocol which created a joint military mission tion regarding the crisis in the Côte d’Ivoire. The results to Bissau (MISSANG), to support Bissau’s security sector of these meetings would show reform, both countries have en- the more attentive observer of hanced their bilateral relations Angolan politics the magnitude Before the ‘Arab Spring’, significantly. On 26 December of the country’s influence in MISSANG had its first challenge, African affairs. As mentioned Africa had a number of with troop movements absent above, although having an elu- of clear leadership provoking sive position on the subject, authoritarian leaders what seemed to be an attempt Angola did support Laurent at coup d’état in Bissau.7 Re- Gbagbo for the most part, even who had been in power portedly, Angolan troops fired attempting to convince other for decades. Yet, in less shots at the insurgents who African leaders to change their were attempting to kidnap the position against Ouattara, an than half a year only Prime Minister, Carlos Gomes endeavor which had its de- Júnior, who sought shelter at gree of success. Many are the Angola, Equatorial Guinea, the Angolan embassy in Bissau. reports of African leaders vis- The involvement of the Angolan iting Luanda and suddenly an- Cameroon, Uganda and military forces in the crisis was nouncing their country’s posi- greatly criticized by the political tion towards the Côte d’Ivoire Zimbabwe in sub-Saharan opposition in Bissau, arguing it electoral crisis had changed, Africa were under the rule was unacceptable for a Prime recognizing a degree of legiti- Minister to rely on foreign ‘oc- macy in Laurent Gbagbo’s ac- of long standing leaders. cupation’ forces rather than tions, a claim which matched the country’s military as a se- Angola’s stance. Benin and Such an intense decrease curity detail.8 Even though the Equatorial Guinea changed situation remained peaceful, their position and stood beside in number had deep Angola’s role in the crisis was Angola in solving the crisis in seen as crucial in maintaining a pro-Gbagbo fashion. Guinea consequences inside each the very fragile political stability Conakry’s Alpha Condé praised country. of Guinea-Bissau. Indeed, only Angola’s stance on the crisis countries with excellent rela- as pushing towards a peaceful tions with their partners would solution. These countries, along with Cape Verde and São not only allow and cherish a foreign military presence Tomé and Príncipe, had several meetings with high-level on their soil but also sponsor its capacity to intervene if Angolan politicians, mostly with President José Eduardo needed. Such is the case between Angola and Guinea- dos Santos, Foreign Minister George Chicoti and National Bissau. Assembly President António Paulo Kassoma. Nonethe- Angola is increasingly seen as a rich country, with re- less, the international political game does not come free spectable economic growth estimates and a very strong of charge, as Angola would have to compensate its part- presence in the oil business scene in Africa. Many African ners for their political support in the Côte d’Ivoire file. countries understand that dealing directly with Angola – Hence, after Alpha Condé praised Angola’s efforts in the thus bypassing the textbook international organization Côte d’Ivoire on 28 January 2011, on 17-18 March both approach – can provide new and profitable frameworks countries held a bilateral commission meeting, discuss- for cooperation in the short term, taking into consider- ing topics related to defense and security framework ation the quick pace at which Angola is able to project cooperation.4 Equatorial Guinea applied the same mo- political and financial power in order to celebrate new dus operandi, revealing its support to Angola on the Côte 5 d’Ivoire question on 10 February 2011 and was rewarded 6 “Angola: Govt. and Equatorial Guinea join commission deemed as positive” (An- golaPress, 9 April 2011). 4 “Angola: nation, Guinea Conakry finalise defence, security talks” (AngolaPress, 7 “Troops fire weapons in Guinea Bissau capital” (Voice of America, 26 December 18 March 2011). 2011). 5 “Angola: Equatorial Guinea supports peaceful solution in Côte d’Ivoire” (Ango- 8 “Guiné-Bissau: Angolanos são “força de ocupação estrangeira” (Voice of Amer- laPress, 10 February 2011). ica, 28 December 2011). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin: 2011 Review | 5

deals. Recently, Angola has been opening new political as a ‘check and balance’ to Angolan diplomatic activity and economic opportunities in Africa – especially in West in the region, which explains why Angola as so far been Africa – by exporting stability through enhancing secu- interacting only with smaller, less influential countries. rity abroad. After 27 years of civil war, Angola was left While Angolan ‘security exports’ may be welcomed and with a broken country and a traumatized population but a cherished in the region, it may not take long for Nigeria very large military apparatus. Finding in the military new to produce a political balance of forces in order to con- sources of political and economic revenue, Angola began tain Angolan influence. The resolution of the Côte d’Ivoire ‘exporting security’ to politically unstable regions while crisis and the unexpected ‘U-turn’ of Angola’s position, at the same time opening which retreated from open sup- paths to create joint commis- port to Laurent Gbagbo to align- sions and cooperation frame- Many African countries ing itself with the African Union works, which enhance bilat- – which supported Alassane eral relations and thus spur understand that dealing Ouattara – could be seen as a new business opportunities directly with Angola – thus first check to Angolan presence for Angolan investors, an en- in the region, as although some deavor which would not have bypassing the textbook countries aligned with Angola, been so successful without most West African states and the ‘security exports’ element. international organization the Economic Community of This business orientation filled West African States (ECOWAS) with components of political approach – can provide new remained firm behind Alassane stabilization in other countries Ouattara, hence discrediting the not only allows the expansion and profitable frameworks force and progressiveness of of Angolan investment but for cooperation in the Angolan conflict resolution vo- also keeps its large military cation. If the country continues occupied with new projects, short term, taking into to craft new deals with other a crucial element at a time of countries in the region in fragile internal turmoil and upcom- consideration the quick areas such as security and off- ing elections in the country. shore police or military deploy- However, this modus operandi pace at which Angola is ment, Angola may yet find other is attracting the attention and political checks on its influence the keen interest of many Af- able to project political and and agenda. rican leaders. In 2011, Guinea- financial power in order to Bissau, Guinea-Conakry and Asian interest in Angola Equatorial Guinea made what celebrate new deals. In Asia Angola is crafting its seem to be profitable, win-win image as a country rich in deals with Angola. While the resources, eager for economic MISSANG was established in Guinea-Bissau, Conakry growth and fruitful cooperation. In 2011, China, a longtime Defense Minister Abdoul Kabèlè Camara upon arriving partner, as well as Japan, have shown interest in Angola. in Luanda in representation of the Conakry government China’s interest in Angola’s oil resources has long made analyzed areas of common interest for bilateral coopera- headlines. In that regard, 2011 was no different. The bi- tion with the Angolan government, especially in the security lateral relationship between Angola and China is charac- and defense sectors, while postponing economic and finan- terized by a profound sense of economic interest, which cial consultations to a later date. In what concerns Equato- is assured by the deepening of political ties at the fore- rial Guinea, after the visit of its Minister of Interior and front. On 8 February Angolan ambassador to China João National Security Nicolas Obama on 25 April, a protocol Manuel Bernardo expressed Angola’s wish to further on security and public order was signed,9 thus providing deepen relations with China, hoping to acquire additional further empirical ground for the proposed paradigm of investments in several fields.10 Such a statement reas- advancing ‘security export’ before crafting business deals. sures the Chinese government of Angola’s openness to West Africa is one of the most unstable regions of the en- its investment, as well as granting it a ‘reserved’ place tire African continent. Nigeria, its natural regional power within Angolan business, at a time when financial inves- has so far been absent in the face of Angolan growing tors seek business opportunities in Angola and compe- political influence, much due to its internal instability and tition for Angola’s ‘resource cake’ rises. Perhaps in re- problems. Nevertheless, Nigeria still appears to function sponse to ambassador João Manuel Bernardo’s eager-

9 “Equatorial Guinean security minister ends visit in Luanda” (AngolaPress, 28 10 “Angola envisages strengthening of cooperation with China” (AngolaPress, 8 Aril 2011). February 2011). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin: 2011 Review | 6

ness to capture more Chinese investment, on 7 March the nese investment.14 Already on 28 February the Japanese Chinese ambassador to Angola Zhang Bolun announced ambassador to Angola delivered poliomyelitis vaccines US$14.5 billion in Chinese lending to Angola.11 Then, on worth US$4.7 million, a move which credits Japan’s keen 22-23 March, Vice Premier Wang Qishan visited Angolan interest in Angola.15 However, with Japanese investment aiming at strengthening bilateral ties between the two in sight Angola will have to balance the connection be- countries. During the visit, several cooperation accords tween the former and Chinese investment. Being the two were signed in economic and technical areas, with the major powers in East Asia, China and Japan’s tradition of ultimate goal of establishing a competing for influence abroad formal China-Angola bilateral is sure to replicate into the po- commission.12 Angola began ‘exporting litical economy and business Even though China’s invest- environment of Angola. ment in Africa is often con- security’ to politically sidered unhelpful and regres- unstable regions while Redefining foreign policy sive – as it does not nurture 2011 was also the year of rede- local economies and provokes at the same time fining the ‘ins and outs’ of An- other serious issues such as golan foreign policy. High lev- land grabbing, besides the opening paths to create els of economic growth, solidly well-known international cri- established foreign policy pri- tique regarding China’s block- joint commissions and orities and political strategies, ing of international efforts to much praised in Africa and in develop African economics cooperation frameworks, other parts of the world, un- and attempts to stabilize im- which enhance bilateral covered the need of reforming poverished, conflict ridden and expanding the country’s countries – it has changed relations and thus foreign policy machinery to the political, economic and better suit its growing duties, social map of Angola. Indeed, spur new business responsibilities and power although Angola is a worthy perceptions in the continent, investment opportunity, ten opportunities for Angolan and in the world. years ago when the civil war The Angolan government pri- ended only China was willing investors, an endeavor oritized the formation of its to offer credit lines to Angola, which would not have human resources, by refo- thus disregarding internation- cusing its Minister of Exterior al claims that the Angolan gov- been so successful Relations. The reorganization ernment lacked transparency of Angolan foreign policy took and was rid with corruption. without the ‘security its first step at the IV Conselho Today, Angola is an important Consultivo Alargado on 7 Feb- partner for Chinese economic export’ element. ruary, where diplomats and development and progression, international organizations consequently assuring it a po- from all over the world met sition of power and above all of much needed mutual to discuss and share ideas to better shape the country’s aid, trade and credit lending. diplomatic service and foreign policy. Accordingly, on 2 Touted as a highly developed though isolated power, June President José Eduardo dos Santos appointed 32 Japan made its move to step into Angolan business in new ambassadors,16 a list which included new represen- 2011.13 On 21 February Angolan Foreign Minister George tatives to countries such as the US, China, Brazil – with Chicoti visited Japan where he met his counterpart Seiji whom Angola has a strategic partnership – and South Maehara. Both representatives proceeded to open nego- Africa, a move inserted in the broader reform of the min- tiations on a bilateral investment treaty. Upon completion istry which pinpoints the desire to enhance the country’s Angola will be the first sub-Saharan state to host Japa- position and communication not only with its existing partners, but also with new countries such as the United Arab Emirates, where Angola will open a new embassy.

11 “China provides almost US$15 billion in loans to Angola since 2002” (Macau- hub, 7 March 2011). 14 “Agreement in principle on the Investment Agreement between Japan and the Republic of Angola” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 21 February 2011). 12 “Chinese vice-prime minister ends visit to Angola” (AngolaPress, 23 March 2011). 15 “Japan partners with UNICEF to help eradicate polio in Angola” (UNICEF News- line, 28 February 2011). 13 See Pedro Seabra, “Japan and Lusophone Africa: tepid outcomes, greater op- portunities?” (Portuguese Journal of International Affairs, No. 5, Spring/Sum- 16 “Presidente da República procede a exonerações e nomeações de embaixa- mer 2011), pp. 9-23. dores” (AngolaPress, 6 January 2011). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin: 2011 Review | 7

One of the main reasons to undertake such a massive Angola refrained from interfering, contrary to occasions investment in reshaping the ministry resides on the past. In Madagascar, after the toppling of the former country’s growing importance in international affairs, government, the SADC continues balancing a political reflected by the amount of state leaders, especially Af- transition involving eleven contending groups, a situation rican leaders, travelling annually to Luanda to become which might benefit from Angola’s experience. Overall, acquainted with Angola’s ex- due to its many challenges and perience in foreign affairs, es- blockades, Angola remains at the pecially in conflict resolution, One of the main reasons helm of the SADC, maneuvering peace building and national with a clear perspective but not and economic reconstruction. to undertake such a much political advancement. Hence, from Brazil to Germany, Turning to Europe, with the Timor Leste, Liberia, Namibia, massive investment in ongoing financial crisis hit- Benin, Equatorial Guinea and ting Portugal, consequently the African Union – to name a reshaping the ministry triggering the privatization of few –, leaders from around the resides on the country’s major national companies, An- world visited Luanda in 2011, gola hinted several times at the carrying not only economic growing importance in possibility of buying shares of prospects and interests, but such companies, many of them also eager to know and under- international affairs, with significant investment stand Angola’s take on the Af- and infrastructure not only in rican scene, especially drawing reflected by the amount of Portugal but also abroad. The from its experience in dealing international media has been with conflict. state leaders, especially in an uproar over such news, On the multilateral front, 2011 African leaders, travelling as it seems the tables have was the year Angola assumed turned and now the former the presidency of both the annually to Luanda to colony invests and gains eco- Southern African Develop- nomic power upon its former ment Community (SADC) and become acquainted with colonial patron.18 Nevertheless, the Community of Portuguese- two issues must be raised when Speaking Countries (CPLP). Angola’s experience in considering this turn of events. While leading the SADC Angola Firstly, even though Portugal is organized the regional organi- foreign affairs, especially in the midst of a financial crisis, zation’s 31st Summit in Luanda. in conflict resolution, its national companies remain Marked by Zimbabwean Prime prosperous and solid busi- Minister’s Morgan Tsvangirai’s peace building and ness opportunities for inves- absence from the summit and tors. Many of these companies the blockage of several NGO’s national and economic not only possess significant from participating, the meet- presence in other countries, ing went as scheduled, peak- reconstruction. especially in the Lusophone ing with the chairperson of the world, but also represent an Organ on Politics, Defense and opportunity to export specific Security Cooperation Rupiah Banda presenting the sum- technological advancements to the acquiring country, mit with a report reviewing progress on specific areas, especially in the multimedia and telecommunications namely Madagascar, Malawi, DRC and Zimbabwe. These sector, where Angola is investing the most. Second, both were the priorities inherited and assumed by Angola as Portugal and Angola have been carving out a pattern of the president of SADC, having sidelined more abstract privileging investment in the Lusophone world. Even with and problematic issues related to regional political and Brazil on the fringes of such a movement, the Lusophone economic integration or the creation of a regional par- space has had a considerable increase in capital and hu- liament. As stated by Foreign Minister George Chicoti in man mobility, especially between Angola and Portugal, a late 2011, Angola through the SADC has an important trend which is sure to be strengthened after the late ac- role not only in the DRC but also in the political transition quisition of shares in Portuguese companies by Angola. of Madagascar.17 Indeed, the late presidential elections in To be sure, the redefinition of Angolan foreign policy the DRC may still resurrect conflict, an issue upon which was mostly centered at revamping its working structure.

18 See Pedro Seabra and Paulo Gorjão, “Intertwined paths: Portugal and rising 17 “Ministro das Relações Exteriores destaca firmeza angolana em ambiente Angola” (South African Institute of International Affairs, Occasional Paper No. difícil internacional de 2011” (Lusa, 19 December 2011). 89, August 2011). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin: 2011 Review | 8

Its core objectives, centered at the maintenance of a multi-vector foreign policy based not only on financial investment but now also on ‘security exports’, still represent the main priority of Angolan foreign policy. Nevertheless, this redefining of its structural foreign policy apparatus is a process in constant change and evolution, as further changes are certain to occur in 2012.

Conclusions 2011 was above all a year of reorganization and consoli- dation of foreign policy activity for Angola, not a year of major new projects and ventures, with the exception of the creation of the MISSANG mission in Guinea-Bissau. Indeed, it was in West Africa where Angolan foreign policy took its most distinct shape, when the country defied the internationally led resolution of the Côte d’Ivoire elector- al crisis, by supporting Laurent Gbagbo and successfully convincing certain countries to join its position of support for the latter. It was also in western Africa where Angola confirmed its strategy based on ‘exporting security’ to politically unstable countries in order to open pathways for political and economic cooperation, mostly seen as profitable for both sides. With a strategy pertaining the observer to the politics of the late 20th century – when force was often used to advance political and ideologi- cal goals –, Angola keeps an active military sector while substituting the political and ideological realism of the past with 21st century economic cooperation. Such a keen instrumentalization of globalization is creating a percep- tion that Angola is becoming an important regional power in Africa. Nevertheless, although much imbued with Af- rican spirit, Angola’s foreign policy remained attached to its multi-vector strategy, dealing with both eastern and western states, while acquiring economic leverage upon its former colonial patron. Such a massive endeavor re- flected the necessity of reforming and expanding its dip- lomatic structure, which considering the many projects the country is involved in, might be said to more effective than many western states’ own diplomatic apparatus. To be sure, even though issues related with the Angolan re- gime stood out, 2011 was the year the country made its way into the political and economic map of global affairs, transforming its image of a devastated country only ex- porting conflict and humanitarian disaster, into a power to be reckoned with, not only in the continent but in world politics. However, uncertainty concerning the 2012 elec- tions may further stir up opposition movements and cre- ate pockets of instability which may require government intervention, an action sure to be condemned by most western countries. Yet, if 2012 continues the foreign pol- icy trajectory of 2011, it will surely be another successful year for Angola. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin: 2011 Review | 51

Editor | Paulo Gorjão assistant editorS | Kai Thaler • Sean Goforth DESIGN | Atelier Teresa Cardoso Bastos PRINTING | Europress

Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS) Rua Vitorino Nemésio, 5 - 1750-306 Lisboa PORTUGAL http://www.ipris.org email: [email protected]

IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin Review is a publication of IPRIS. The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of IPRIS.

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