CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOR

      !$     "     "  #   ADVISORY PANEL

Mary Chinery-Hesse Chief Advisor to the Former President Ahmed Naseem of Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Member of the Panel of the Wise of the of the African Union (incoming) Rajendra Pachauri Helen Clark Chairman of the Intergovernmental Administrator of the UN Development Panel on (IPCC) Programme (UNDP) Director General of The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) Jan Eliasson Former President of the Teresa Ribera UN General Assembly Secretary of State for Climate Former Foreign Minister of Change of

José María Figueres Johan Rockström Former President of Executive Director of the Stockholm Chairman of the Carbon War Room Environment Institute (SEI) and Stockholm Resilience Centre Saleemul Huq Senior Fellow at the International Institute Hans Joachim Schellnhuber for Environment and Development (IIED) Founding Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Yolanda Kakabadse International President of the Klaus Töpfer World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Former Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Ashok Khosla President of the International Union Margareta Wahlström for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) UN Assistant Secretary-General Chairman of Development Alternatives for Disaster Risk Reduction Co-Chair, UN Resources Panel Michael Zammit Cutajar Ricardo Lagos Former Executive Secretary of the UN Former President of Chile Framework Convention on Climate Change Former President of the Club of (UNFCCC)

Loren Legarda Senator of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) Regional Champion for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation for and the Pacific

THE CLIMATE VULNERABLE FORUM DARA is a global partnership of leaders of countries most is an international organization based in Madrid, vulnerable to climate change actively seeking a firm Spain, committed to improving the quality and and urgent resolution to the growing climate crisis. effectiveness of aid for vulnerable populations The Climate Vulnerable Forum was founded by suffering from conflict, disasters and climate President of the Maldives and change. Since its foundation in 2003 by Silvia first met in November 2009. The Declaration of the Hidalgo, DARA has conducted independent Climate Vulnerable Forum adopted then expressed evaluations of major development and alarm at the rate of changes and danger witnessed humanitarian assistance initiatives in over 40 around the planet due to the effects of human- countries across five continents, and developed induced global warming and called for urgent most innovative tools to promote the effectiveness of international cooperation to tackle the challenge. aid and good humanitarian donorship. PEER REVIEW COMMITTEE

Yasemin Aysan Juergen Kropp Under Secretary General of International Head of the North-South Research Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Group of the Potsdam Institute Societies (IFRC) for Climate Impact Research

Suruchi Bhadwal Marc Levy Associate Director of the Earth Sciences Deputy Director of the Centre and Climate Change Division of The Energy for International Earth Science and Resources Institute (TERI) Information Network of the Earth Institute at Columbia University Manuel Carballo Executive Director of the International Bo Lim Committee for Migration and Health (ICMH) Special Climate Change Advisor of UN Development Programme (UNDP) Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum Senior Scientist on Public Health Urs Luterbacher and Environment of the World Health Chairman of the Environmental Studies Organisation (WHO) Unit of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Ian Christoplos Senior Project Researcher of the Danish Pascal Peduzzi Institute for International Studies (DIIS) Head of the Early Warning Unit of the Global Resource Information Database Pierre Encontre (GRID – ) of the UN Environment Chief of Special Programmes of the Division Programme (UNEP) for , Least Developed Countries and Special Programmes of the UN Conference Hansjoerg Strohmeyer on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Chief of the Policy Development and Studies Branch of the UN Office for the Coordination Anne Hammill of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Senior Researcher on Climate Change and Energy of the International Institute Farhana Yamin for Sustainable Development (IISD) Portfolio Manager of the Climate Change Division of the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF)

EDITORIAL TEAM

Steering Group Co - Chairs Commons Consultants Ross Mountain Søren Peter Andreasen (Production Editor) Director General of DARA Jakob Mathias Wichmann Marc Limon Anne-Mette Steinmeier Counsellor of the Maldives Mission Peter Utzon Berg to the UN and other international Andreas Hastrup Clemmensen organizations in Geneva

DARA Matthew McKinnon (Coordinating Editor) Lucía Fernández Suárez Geeta Uhl

The Advisory Panel and Peer Review Committee members serve in their personal capacity providing input to the Climate Vulnerability Initiative that informs the development of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor. DARA is solely responsible for the final content of this report. CLIMATE VUL IN NUMBERS

Nearly 1 MILLION CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVEN DEATHS* ESTIMATED EVERY SINGLE YEAR FROM 2030 IF ACTION IS NOT TAKEN Some CLIMATE DEATHS ESTIMATED OVER 5 MILLION THE NEXT TEN YEARS IN ABSENCE OF AN EFFECTIVE RESPONSE

350,000Already CLIMATE DEATHS ESTIMATED EACH YEAR TODAY Almost 80 % OF ALL CLIMATE DEATHS ARE REGISTERED ONLY AMONG CHILDREN LIVING IN SOUTH ASIA OR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Over 99 % OF ALL MORTALITY OCCURS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Close to PEOPLE ESTIMATED TO BE LIVING UNDER 10 MILLION THREAT FROM CLIMATE DRIVEN BY 2030, UP FROM 2.5 MILLION TODAY

*All estimated mortality statistics or deaths are representative of much wider harm. Every 100,000 deaths would normally indicate several million cases of illness or disability (DALYs), or people displaced, injured or in need of emergency assistance. NERABILITY

150Around BILLION IN LOSSES TO TODAY’S DOLLARS ECONOMY ESTIMATED TO BE CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE More than HALF OF THE TOTAL ECONOMIC LOSSES TAKE PLACE IN INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES More than 50 COUNTRIES ACUTELY VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE TODAY ARE IN URGENT MOST NEED OF SUPPORT Some 170 COUNTRIES -- OR MOST OF THE WORLD -- HAVE HIGH VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AT LEAST ONE KEY IMPACT AREA ALREADY TODAY Over HIGHLY EFFECTIVE MEASURES INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT ARE READILY 50 AVAILABLE TO LIMIT VIRTUALLY ALL HARM CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE -- JUST A GLIMPSE OF THE MANY MORE OPTIONS AVAILABLE

Estimated figures are based on scientific research or expert assumptions in a world marked with uncertainty. The real numbers could be higher or lower. 6 | Climate Vulnerability Monitor PREFACE

Climate change is the most urgent to climate change all around the world. to a low-carbon economy, based on challenge of our time. The future of the It shows how each country is vulnerable green technology and renewable environment and the life it supports in different ways -- some due to health energy, creates wealth, jobs and new rests on the decisions we take over reasons or extreme weather patterns, opportunities for progress. Many the coming years. This represents an and others as a result of economic countries of the Climate Vulnerable enormous responsibility on our shoulders, factors or because of land loss from Forum, despite having contributed little which is not only a burden -- but also a expanding deserts or rising sea-levels. to the climate change problem, are taking tremendous opportunity for us all. It explains why many nations at the the lead in creating this new future. The climate frontline feel the impacts of Maldives, for example, is working to Previous generations were not aware of climate change more intensely. And it become carbon neutral by 2020. Others the environmental impact of economic demonstrates how quickly vulnerability among us are pursuing similar pledges. development and the resource constraints is accelerating almost everywhere, so of our planet. We are. They did not have that ultimately climate change could the technology and the know-how to threaten the livelihoods, if not the pursue a different path to prosperity. We survival, of all nations and peoples. The THE MONITOR SENDS do. Our generation must seize this unique fate of the world is tied to the fate of the A STRONG SIGNAL OF moment to build a better, more equitable most vulnerable. and more sustainable world. If not, our CAUTION. BUT IT SENDS generation will carry a conscience that will Yet such an outcome is not inevitable. AN EQUALLY STRONG never be clear, from failing to act when we The Monitor sends a strong signal of had the chance. caution. But it sends an equally strong SIGNAL OF HOPE signal of hope. The Climate Vulnerability Monitor lays bare the sheer scale and breadth of This report identifies just how inexpensive the impacts we already face. It breaks it is to limit the majority of the negative The Monitor was built to better identify ground in pinpointing our vulnerabilities impacts of climate change seen today, the needs of communities facing serious from the effects of the most violent climate impacts and to establish a storms and floods, to epidemics, severe firmer understanding of the nature drought, desertification, and even of the climate crisis as it affects the THE CLIMATE rising seas. There are even existing world’s nations today and in the near VULNERABILITY programmes like those addressing future. The impact of climate change the main health issues linked to these is already a major global concern, MONITOR LAYS causes which can be readily expanded. increasingly relevant across areas such BARE THE SHEER Countless other signs of hope exist. as business and trade, civil safety, Countries around the world are beginning nature conservation, human rights, and SCALE AND BREADTH to understand that expanding modes sustainable development. OF THE IMPACTS of production established in nineteenth century Europe will incur enormous The Monitor is not perfect. Some of WE ALREADY FACE social and economic costs. Shifting the forecasts and conclusions will Climate Vulnerability Monitor | 7

IT IS WELL WITHIN negative effects outlined here would just communities against climate impacts be the beginning if we fail to act. will bolster the fight against poverty; and OUR POWER TO SOLVE everybody would enjoy a safer, more THE CLIMATE CRISIS And let us be frank: time is running prosperous world. out. A near doubling in warming is unavoidable in the next 20 years or so Is the world ready to act? draw criticism for either overplaying as the lag in the planet’s greenhouse or underplaying the seriousness of effect catches up with us. We must Those of us who believe in the potential the problem. This we welcome and meet this growing challenge. If not, the of climate change, both as a threat encourage. The report’s methodology Monitor estimates that by 2030, over and as a stimulus to kick-start a new is new. The data worked with is not 130 countries will be highly vulnerable to twenty-first century revolution -- this always ideal. And all predictions are climate change; while over 50 countries time grounded in green growth and truly marked by uncertainty and contain a will suffer the kinds of acute impacts sustainable development -- should not margin of error. But without a report of that just a handful of particularly fragile despair. We must highlight the scale of this kind, the gaps in our understanding states are experiencing today. According the problem, now and in the future, and might never be filled. It is our hope to the scientific consensus, we must demonstrate the available options for that future Monitors will benefit from also begin reversing our patterns of better data and knowledge. We hope emissions within the next five years to the report will trigger more debate and avoid even greater temperature change CLIMATE CHANGE focus more attention on improving our and greater harm. understanding of climate change. SHOULD NOT DIVIDE US. As with every study of this kind, the QUITE THE OPPOSITE -- But limitations aside, the types of Monitor lacks complete certainty, but IT MUST UNITE impacts we will face in agriculture, in highlights enough threats of serious, or health, on the shores of the world’s even irreversible, harm that inaction is oceans and otherwise are unlikely to unconscionable. This report should act fundamentally change. Nor will better as a wake-up call to decision makers and an alternative route. And we must argue knowledge radically alter the truth of to people everywhere that more, much -- and win the debate -- that it is in all of underlying vulnerabilities, like poverty more, has to be done, and quickly. our interests to act now and act together. or gender inequality, which amplify Each of us has common but differentiated the impacts of climate change and There is still time to act and it is well responsibilities and abilities. But climate are present in all societies to varying within our power to solve the climate change should not divide us. Quite the degrees. Some progress is being made crisis. A world free from pollution would opposite -- it must unite. in the global fight against poverty, but the be healthier for everyone; renewable The Climate Vulnerability Monitor is our momentum in addressing climate change technologies could bring energy to many contribution to the global debate. We hope is only beginning to pick up pace. The who have no access today; protecting that you will find it useful in your efforts.

MOHAMED NASHEED JOSÉ MARÍA FIGUERES President of the Maldives Trustee, DARA Founding Chair, Former President of Climate Vulnerable Forum Costa Rica (1994-1998) “Article 3. Principles. 3. The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost.” – Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Rio de Janeiro, , 1992 “Humanitarian action should be guided by the humanitarian principles of humanity, meaning the centrality of saving human lives and alleviating suffering wherever it is found...” –Principles and Good Practice of Humanitarian Donorship, Stockholm, Sweden, 2003

“The fate of the most vulnerable will be the fate of the world.” – First Declaration of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, Male', Maldives, 2009 10 | Climate Vulnerability Monitor Vulnerability |Climate 10 CONTENTS Economic Economic Stress Habitat Habitat Weather Loss Disasters Mozambique Economic Economic Stress FINDINGS OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOR VULNERABILITY CLIMATE BIBLIOGRAPHY ABBREVIATIONS GLOSSARY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VULNERABLE FORUM OF CLIMATE THE DECLARATION CLIMATE BASICS MONITOR DATAMONITOR TABLES METHODOLOGY COUNTRY PROFILES REVIEW ADAPTATION PERFORMANCE Health Impact NAVIGATING THE REPORT ABOUT THIS REPORT ABOUT REFERENCES PARTNERS GAPS RESEARCH Maldives Weather Disasters Adaptation Review Performance Dominican Republic Habitat Loss Climate Vulnerability Monitor Vulnerability Climate Health Impact

206 256 250 262 228 254 246 240 240 248 257 186 104 251 208 202 225 20 160 190 198 126 194 24 142 18 80 112 62 12 92 70 11 NAVIGATING THE REPORT effectively tacklingeffectively the climate challenge. for vital be will gaps these Filling world. the around communities on impact its and change climate of ourunderstanding improve to inorder addressed urgently be must that limitations Knowledge RESEARCH GAPS up. heats world the as evolving is it how and climate our of state the to introduction A brief CLIMATE BASICS format. in list Monitor Vulnerability Climate the from information Basic DATA MONITOR TABLES key models and assumptions, calculations used. alldata, including Monitor, Vulnerability Climate and report A detailed explanation developed of the for methodology the METHODOLOGY world. the around countries of types different for implies Snapshot of studies what the Climate Vulnerability Monitor COUNTRY PROFILES to the economy and the environment.stresses other and habitats human of degradation weather, extreme the of negative climate effects change in the areas of health, reducing for valuable programmes and measures of A catalogue REVIEW ADAPTATION PERFORMANCE address the harm this causes. to needed actions and society human on has change climate a new tool aimed at advancing of understanding the impact is Monitor Vulnerability Climate The resources. natural and onhuman key and Economic Loss industries Habitat Stress climate change including Health its Impact, Weather Disasters, of aspects different to vulnerability of assessment A global MONITOR VULNERABILITY CLIMATE developed. was it how and Monitor Vulnerability Climate the of approach and objectives the to introduction An REPORT THIS ABOUT and negative its impact on the world’s communities. Headline recommendations for tackling climate change RECOMMENDATIONS madeThe by main the report. observations FINDINGS OBSERVATIONS AND Climate Vulnerability Monitor |11 Monitor Vulnerability Climate 12 | Climate Vulnerability Monitor FINDINGS A OBSERVATI

A HOTTER EARTH IS ALREADY CAUSING WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DEATH. The artificial heating of our planet fuelled by human activities arid regions degrading into desert. The effect of climate change on already interferes with earth’s delicate climate leading to effects storms, floods, and wildfires is estimated to leave an additional 5 that are dangerous for people and nature. The alarming rate of billion dollars (USD) of damage each year, while rising seas cost 1% change and spiralling effects of heat, wind, rain, deserts, sea- of GDP to the lowest-income countries – 4% in the Pacific – with levels, and other impacts on the world’s populations leave a human annually 65 billion dollars wiped off the world economy. Globally, toll of 350,000 deaths every single year. Stifling heat, winds, and the primary sectors and fisheries are already weighed down by a water shortages pressure the lands of some 2.5 million people in further 65 billion dollars every year from climate stresses.

MOST IMPACTS ARE HIGHLY CONCENTRATED ESPECIALLY ON CHILDREN AND THE POOR. Over three quarters of the death toll linked to climate change is lower-income countries suffer much greater relative stresses to their concentrated on children living in Sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia. economies, mainly due to larger, less-robust agricultural sectors. Gradual, not sudden, impacts from climate change cause more than Some 50 countries are considered acutely vulnerable to climate 90% of all damage. The roughly 50 least developed countries suffer change today, collectively suffering most of all climate impacts. more than one third of the global human toll linked to climate change, Recognized fragile or failed states like , Haiti, Myanmar, and emerging economies nearly two thirds. Overall, the few additional Sierra Leone, and Somalia are among the worst affected, as are deaths in wealthy countries are likely offset by health gains due to low-lying island nations facing existential threats. An average of warmer, shorter winters and other effects. Over 80% of people at risk just 24 countries are assessed as having the most severe factor of from climate-driven desertification reside in high-growth emerging vulnerability for each main impact area of health, extreme weather, economies such as and . Half of the economic impacts habitat loss, and economic stress. In every case, some two thirds of of climate change are felt in industrialized countries. However, the total global impact falls on just 10 countries. Climate Vulnerability Monitor | 13 ND ONS

MUCH DAMAGE CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IS STILL READILY PREVENTABLE.

Half or more of today’s human toll linked to climate change could be prevented with targeted distribution of salt-water solutions or basic dietary or vitamin supplements costing virtually nothing. A wide array of cost-effective actions can be taken to reduce climate vulnerabilities for each of the Monitor’s four impact areas. Measures that reduce the impacts of climate change on health are the most effective, followed by those that reduce exposure to extreme weather. Preventing loss of human habitat to desertification, sea-level rise or loss of biodiversity, such as alpine species or coral, are the most challenging to address, but several relatively inexpensive and proven measures nevertheless exist. Greater impacts are inevitable however, and eventually damage may only be able to be limited or selectively avoided. But the worst impacts of climate change for which several measures would become futile can still be avoided if strong action is taken in the very near future to reduce emissions that lead to the earth's warming. Enough market-viable opportunities also exist to substitute carbon-intensive means of production, transportation, and energy creation or avoid deforestation for an immediate and sustained transition to a low-carbon economy, which would stem the root causes of climate change. 14 | Climate Vulnerability Monitor

THE CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOR IN BRIEF

The Climate Vulnerability Monitor takes a new climate change. The factors remain static from approach to assessing the climate vulnerability 2010 to 2030 demonstrating how vulnerability of the world and its regions, countries and would evolve under climate changes expected communities. The Monitor looks at pre-existing over the next 20 years if measures are not characteristics of society that are knowingly taken to reduce vulnerabilities. Climate change affected by climate change and maps the is never linked to any specific event, but level of vulnerability and expected impacts considered an added stress, effect, or change as implied by the effect that real or projected that carries consequences we consider positive changes in the climate will have on these. The or negative. The estimative figures of impacts Monitor uses globally comparable information mentioned in this report are yielded from the in order to establish reference points across Monitor’s specific methodology and represent countries. The Monitor’s analysis is built additional impacts due to climate change. They around four distinct climate impact areas, are a plausible snapshot of what is expected five levels -- called factors -- of vulnerability to to already be taking place and what might climate change, and two points in time, 2010 eventuate in the near future. Wherever possible and 2030. The impact areas were chosen leading expertise and scientific modelling has because they represent most of (but not been relied upon (see “Climate Vulnerability all) the main impacts of climate change and Monitor Architecture”, p.54). Still, there are form distinctive types of responses in each gaps in the base data the tool relies on as well area -- although some measures to reduce as gaps in several research areas that restrict impacts or vulnerability could have beneficial our full understanding of the effects of climate effects across several or all impact areas. The change.. The Monitor represents just one vulnerability factors are determined statistically possible way of measuring climate vulnerability and indicate how different an effect is expected that we expect can be greatly and continually to be from a baseline of zero impact due to improved upon.

CLIMATE CLIMATE IMPACT AREAS VULNERABILITY HEALTH IMPACT - additional mortality FACTORS to climate sensitive diseases WEATHER DISASTERS - additional ] ACUTE (most vulnerable category) mortality and damage in storms, ] SEVERE floods and wildfires ] HIGH HABITAT LOSS - additional loss MODERATE of human habitat to rising seas, ] and degrading arid lands ] LOW (least vulnerable category) ECONOMIC STRESS - extra losses in the primary/agricultural sectors of the economy and to key natural resources Climate Vulnerability Monitor | 15

UNLESS MEASURES ARE TAKEN, THE NEXT 20 YEARS WILL SEE EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN EVERY MAJOR CLIMATE IMPACT. Twenty more years of inaction would lead to nearly 1 million losses, and 10 billion dollars in storm, flood, and wildfire damages climate deaths a year by 2030. The number of acutely-vulnerable -- in a third of a trillion dollar annual economic crisis. By 2030, countries would more than triple over that period with nearly half 132 countries would register an overall factor of High vulnerability of the world’s regions entering the ranks of the most vulnerable. or above. Unless actions are taken to meet the challenge by Ten million people a year exposed to desertification and sea-level 2030, 42 countries would become acutely vulnerable to the rise could lead to a relocation exodus. Economic costs would health impacts of climate change, 20 countries to extreme leap to 100 billion dollars of stress on the world’s coastlines, weather, 48 countries to loss of human habitat, and 68 countries 150 billion dollars worth of primary-sector and natural resource to wide-ranging economic stresses.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT CLIMATE-RELATED MORTALITY. ADDITIONAL PEOPLE AT RISK FROM CLIMATE-RELATED DESERTIFICATION. CLIMATE RELATED ECONOMIC COSTS DEATHS (1000) AVERAGE PER YEAR ADDITIONAL (MILLIONS) AVERAGE PER YEAR (BILLION USD PPP) AVERAGE PER YEAR

Weather disasters 843 9.7 Weather disasters 273 8 Health impact Sea-level rise 20 Economic stress 96

133 345 835 5 3 2.6 66 157 341 63 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 ALMOST EVERY COUNTRY HAS HIGH VULNERABILITY TO ONE MAJOR CLIMATE IMPACT.

Nearly every single country – 161 to 176 of the 184 countries GLOBAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE assessed – registers high vulnerabilities to at least one climate Number of countries per climate vulnerability factor change impact area (2010 to 2030). Most countries in the world are therefore facing climate insecurities of one kind or another, whether due to heat waves; wildfires, floods, and storms; economic 15 ACUTE losses in key sectors; ecosystem damage; or hunger, disease, 54 and displacement. Climate stresses on the economy are the most widespread and include lost value in the agricultural sector, 31 including forestry and fisheries, as well as impacts for natural SEVERE resources like water and biodiversity. The next most-prevalent 28 impacts are in losses to human habitat as a result of growing desertification and sea-level rise. In 2010, health impacts due to 51 HIGH climate change are least dispersed, but they are set to expand, 50 with some 55 countries attaining a vulnerability factor of Acute or Severe by 2030 (compared to just 34 countries similarly prone 61 to extreme weather by that time). While most wealthy countries MODERATE 33 register a factor of High vulnerability in at least one impact area, only Spain and the have an overall vulnerability 2010 26 factor of High, which is similar to major emerging economies such LOW as China, , Iran, Philippines, and . 19 2030 16 | Climate Vulnerability Monitor

LOW HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCREASES VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE WHILE CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS KEY DEVELOPMENT GOALS.

Every increase in vulnerability to climate change brings a greater equality, and the rule of law will help diminish climate vulnerability likelihood of poverty, gender inequality, and lower human and facilitate the implementation of effective countermeasures development. The Monitor also identifies countries with much to the worst effects of climate change. higher climate vulnerability than their human development level would imply. In particular, countries with very low human But climate change itself also wears down progress towards development and very high climate vulnerability, including a the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), above all in the number of highly fragile states, such as Afghanistan and Somalia, areas of extreme poverty and hunger where the world is not on should be singled out for special attention. The impacts felt in track to meet its 2015 targets of eradication. If action is not some of the world’s most acutely vulnerable countries may well taken, climate change risks threatening or reversing progress be too extreme to be fairly reflected when considered in relation made in reducing child mortality and fighting major infectious to other countries. Strong societal fabric, governance, gender diseases such as malaria.

SHARE OF TOTAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON SOCIOECONOMIC REGIONS % of total impact, Additional Deaths, Additional People at Risk of Desertification, Additional Economic Losses

ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL PEOPLE AT ADDITIONAL DEATHS RISK OF DESERTIFCATION ECONOMIC LOSSES

Developing 99 95 49 Countries 99 96 54

High Growth 62 83 33 Emerging Countries 55 82 35

Least Developed 34 11 7 Countries (LDC) 41 12 8

Industrialized < 1 5 51 Countries < 1 4 46

2010

2030 Climate Vulnerability Monitor | 17

Abandoned mud houses surrounded by flood waters following extremely heavy rains in Aweil, Sudan. Source: UN Photo/Tim McKulka.

TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE IS A MAJOR OPPORTUNITY.

Right now, the same steps that minimize vulnerability to climate pollution itself is a leading risk factor for a significantly change collectively contribute to every major global target for greater human toll than the climate change it triggers poverty eradication and to the improvement of living standards. -- it was estimated to be the cause of close to 3 million Effectively tackling climate impacts will be vital to bringing the deaths worldwide in 2000.1 The exploitation of increasingly international community back on track to achieving the MDGs scarce fossil fuels is also causing ongoing damage to the in just five years’ time. But opportunities will fade as warming environment, as was glaringly demonstrated by the 2010 Gulf increases. It will become more and more difficult to deal at a of oil spill disaster; and leading to human tragedies local level with global forces such as warming and rising seas as such as coal mining accidents in places as diverse as China adaptation increasingly comes to involve choices about what to or . Decentralized forms of renewable energy are preserve. And protecting communities and the environment will much safer, cleaner, and hold significantly more promise for be brought into ever-greater competition with narrow economic the 20% of the world’s population who have no electricity or interests as costs ultimately become prohibitive. grid system to access traditional sources of energy produced by large-infrastructure power plants. A green technology Tackling the root causes of climate change is also a major revolution could well hold the key to unlocking the global opportunity. Adopting greener practices in a low-carbon inequities that continue to plague the world as a result of economy will bring major societal benefits. unequal access to energy and other resources. 18 | Climate Vulnerability Monitor RECOMMEND

IMMEDIATELY DANGER IS PRESENT. REINFORCE RESPONSES ARE RESPONSES TO COST-EFFECTIVE. MAJOR CLIMATE- INACTION IS EXPAND HUMAN SENSITIVE HEALTH UNCONSCIONABLE. AND GENDER CONCERNS: DEVELOPMENT MALNUTRITION, While climate change is fact, the science of its impacts is not yet exact. The full EFFORTS IN MOST- DIARRHEAL extent of its effects on communities remains uncertain. But we have enough VULNERABLE INFECTIONS, indications to suggest widespread harm AND MALARIA. and danger is already being done all over COUNTRIES. the world. And we can tackle that harm Contrary to popular notions, the vast with cost-effective measures readily at Climate change is already placing a majority of human deaths linked to climate hand for limiting impacts and reducing burden on poverty-reduction efforts change are not caused by stronger storms that cause the and is contributing to significant lost and floods. Instead they are the result warming -- both of which must happen GDP potential in a number of worst- of climate-sensitive disease. Climate in tandem. Major emitters must assume affected countries. The countries most change is already causing an estimated responsibility for this crisis in accordance vulnerable to climate change have the 350,000 deaths -- and more than 10 with common but differentiated highest levels of gender inequality and million cases of illness every year -- mainly responsibilities and respective the lowest levels of human development. due to malnutrition, diarrheal infections, capabilities. Immediate action is needed Reinforcing the drive for climate-friendly and malaria.3 Higher temperatures, water to prevent further warming of the planet development progress on all fronts is shortages, and other impacts are weighing and any harm caused by warming we can a crucial complement to any response down the fight against some of the world’s no longer stop. We are already committed aimed at reducing vulnerability to most deadly diseases. Less than a quarter to levels of warming that could entail mass climate change. In particular, many of of existing national adaptation programmes extinctions of species, the disappearance the countries most acutely vulnerable to of action (NAPAs) in most vulnerable of the world’s coral reefs, and much climate change are also fragile states, countries adequately address health greater impacts on human society than on the limits of human development impacts due to climate change, including are outlined in this report.2 But the quicker and stable social and political order. just 3% of priority projects that target we act, the more we reinforce the ability of Elsewhere, low-lying island nations are health.4 Yet exceptionally cost-effective and vulnerable communities to withstand the facing imminent existential threats that established measures such as bed nets, changes, the more we can limit additional significantly undermine development. dietary supplements, and oral rehydration warming, and the more we can avoid the In worst cases, vital efforts to manage therapies consisting of just water, salt, and most devastating of consequences for this fast-depleting natural resources such sugar are readily available to help avert any planet and the life it supports. as water, or even the types of practical additional deaths and reduce the extent measures featured in this report’s of major climate-sensitive illnesses in the Adaptation Performance Review and worst-affected areas. in national plans (NAPAs), will face serious implementation challenges in countries with inadequate public institutions, unstable socio-political environments, or situations of armed conflict. Support to developing countries, in particular including facilitated access to green technologies, will be crucial for supporting sustainable development. Climate Vulnerability Monitor | 19

REINFORCE NATIONAL PLANS TO LIMIT ATIONS CLIMATE IMPACTS. Warming of the planet beyond the 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) already seen since the industrial revolution is set to double or even possibly triple over the next decades.5 The humanitarian and environmental effects of this rapid warming should not be underestimated and will require large-scale responses in order to limit the harm done. Most countries highly vulnerable to climate change also lack resources and require external support to INVEST IN combat the additional stress it places on their communities, their economies, and FILLING URGENT their ecosystems. RESEARCH GAPS. Least developed countries have put together initial programmes (NAPAs) to While we already have enough sound respond to the local effects of climate research and analysis available to change that are to be externally financed, point to serious dangers and harm but which still go largely unfunded taking place around the world and to despite many of them now being several take measures against those impacts. years old. Non-negotiable resources A more accurate and comprehensive derived from major emitters should not understanding of the impact of climate only be immediately released in order change on human society is impeded to realize these plans in their entirety by major gaps in research, science, and WIDELY DISSEMINATE -- and especially to implement priority socio-economic knowledge. This report projects, which amount to less than 2 leaves out countries and known effects THE CLIMATE billion dollars (USD) globally.6 The scale of climate change due to the absence of VULNERABILITY of impacts captured in the Monitor would adequate data or research. Some key imply that NAPAs are already inadequate areas of socio-economic impact have MONITOR’S FINDINGS. to deal with the negative effects of climate clearly unsatisfactory or non-existent change impacting vulnerable communities scientific bases for their estimation. And The lack of public support for ambitious around the world. So national plans must measures of the success of policies and climate change policies continues to be expanded in kind, in particular with actions to limit the negative effects of be a major impediment to mobilizing respect to human health, where hundreds climate change are still inadequate. The an effective response to this crisis. of thousands of lives are already being lost Climate Vulnerability Monitor was built Political leadership on the issue is with every single year of inaction. not only to improve responses to these also weak, partially because of public But the rapid growth and widespread effects but also to reveal the limitations indifference. A successful international prevalence of vulnerabilities around the on our knowledge and spur debate agreement able to tackle the climate world imply that virtually all countries, aimed at a better understanding of the problem relies on national decisions especially all developing countries, should impact of climate change. A detailed list based on the level of action (especially be preparing and implementing plans in of the main research gaps encountered to reduce emissions) a country is willing order to protect populations and resources. during the development of the Monitor is to assume. Unfortunately, public and Findings across the various impact area found in this report. Urgent investment is political concern is especially low in major assessments of the Monitor serve as bare- needed to close those gaps. And national emitting countries whose role is central to minimum proxy indications for wider effects governments must also improve their any solution to this crisis. The dynamics that must be addressed if harm resulting mapping of human vulnerability to ensure of international media and the politics of from climate change is to be prevented. that adaptation resources reach the most climate change mask a clear scientific International adaptation finance should be vulnerable. If such gaps are not dealt consensus on global warming, its causes, stepped up without further delay to protect with, we risk seriously underestimating and some of its key effects, feeding communities at risk via a global funding or adding unnecessary ineffectiveness to scepticism that undermines support mechanism with legitimate and inclusive our response to this crisis when so much for action desperately needed to tackle decision-making processes. is already at stake. this issue. The findings of this report should therefore be subject to the widest possible dissemination with the goal of ensuring that everyone can at least be informed of the types of dangers we run by not tackling the climate crisis. 20 | Climate Vulnerability Monitor ABOUT THIS WHY THIS REPORT NOW?

DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum The Climate Vulnerability Monitor failure to reach a binding agreement at created the Climate Vulnerability Monitor comes forward as a contribution to the the climate summit in 2009 to advance understanding of the growing debate in this respect. It is also entering and no real signs of a breakthrough negative effects of climate change on publication against a context of slow since, are we oblivious to the scale of the society and to identify a variety of key progress on measures being taken to climate crisis already evident before us? options to meet this new challenge. deal with impacts that climate change is A near doubling in temperature increase already having around the world today. with correspondingly greater impacts Climate change is a global problem Negative effects are most often triggered over the next few decades is unavoidable whose resolution requires global when a community is unable to deal with and something we must prepare for. Far cooperation. As a result, global small additional stresses. Vulnerability, more serious damage and destruction policies, legislation and collaboration or inability to withstand change or than is outlined in this report can still frameworks, formal and informal, are harm, varies greatly from community be averted but will require a steady under discussion if not already in place. to community -- as do changes in reduction in global greenhouse gas It is critical that any global actions that weather and existing climate conditions. emissions that trigger the warming effect. stem from these efforts be informed by a Wealthier communities may hardly notice That effort must begin in just the next few clearer picture of what is at stake today changes that in other regions could well years, or we may well risk heating up the and tomorrow as a result of climate be life threatening. Flood defences or climate system beyond control, with ever change on a global level. Despite a sophisticated health systems able to worsening consequences. wealth of knowledge on climate change, cope with new challenges in one place little consolidated information has may be non-existent elsewhere. Impacts so far been made available regarding are worsened when local environmental the types, scales, and locations of its conditions are already difficult due to ARE WE OBLIVIOUS impacts around the world today. water shortages, land degradation, TO THE SCALE OF THE or otherwise. When pre-existing environmental challenges, changing CLIMATE CRISIS ALREADY climate conditions, and vulnerability are EVIDENT BEFORE US? CLIMATE CHANGE IS all at their highest, the consequences can A GLOBAL PROBLEM be devastating. And people suffer. WHOSE RESOLUTION Progress, meanwhile, towards an The lack of specifics on what is happening REQUIRES GLOBAL international agreement on climate may well be holding back international change that might halt the planet’s cooperation and is even more likely to COOPERATION warming is painstakingly slow. With be restraining support to vulnerable Climate Vulnerability Monitor | 21 REPORT

communities that are inadequately THE APPROACH The Climate Vulnerability Monitor is just equipped to face what, in some cases, The purpose of the Monitor is to begin to one of many possible approaches to is becoming an existential threat. Policy- provide an assessment of different kinds gauging vulnerability to climate change. makers, in particular, have had little of vulnerabilities and to pinpoint who faces The chosen methodology of the Monitor indication about the relative sizes or them, when, and where. The intention is generates the results as outlined in this breadth of the different stresses taking to help guide, not to prioritise by exclusion report. Other methodologies have and will hold. And financial resources are difficult or to provide some sort of assertive and lead to different findings. to mobilize for a problem that has no closed list of preferences. It is not meant clear form. All of this has also kept people to rank some countries as vulnerable and This report understands “climate out of touch with the realities of a global others as not. The report is global, with vulnerability” as the degree to which crisis when strong public support is now information given on a country level, but a community experiences danger and so crucial to resolving the problem. not below that level except in isolated harm from the negative effects of areas. The approach is pragmatic, aimed at climate change.7 That definition is taken Yet well-researched if imperfect establishing robust comparable estimates to include both the characteristics of a explanations of the effects of climate for the main types of impacts that are particular community -- or underlying change on communities around the occurring, to better ensure we are dealing vulnerability -- and exposure to changes world do exist, as does information on with them, and to better identify hurdles in climate conditions and weather -- or the effectiveness of measures to limit that stand between us and a more accurate physical vulnerability -- both of which vary any harmful effects. This report aims to picture of what is happening. greatly around the world. The Monitor bring such expertise to bear in response is not assessing adaptive capacity or to simple questions: Where and how is The report consists of three main parts. resilience per se, but what results when climate change having its most serious First is the Climate Vulnerability Monitor combinations of climate stresses affect effects? To what degree? And what itself, which provides a map of key a specific community. Countries with measures can we take to minimize the vulnerabilities to climate change across lower vulnerability and impacts will harm? In this way, the report seeks to four major impact areas: Health, extreme invariably have higher adaptive capacity clarify the extent of the main impacts weather, loss of human habitat, and and resilience. The Monitor’s focus on of climate change on human society stresses on the economy and natural estimated negative or positive outcomes and identify some of the most effective resources. Second is a catalogue of some -- impacts -- triggered by the presence responses to that impact. It also aims to key practical actions that can be taken to or absence of vulnerabilities differs point out those areas where limits to our reduce impacts identified in the Monitor. from other tools. And “vulnerability” and knowledge constrain a more accurate Third, is a limited set of country profiles that “impacts” that highlight vulnerabilities understanding of this challenge -- and a illustrate how the findings of the Monitor are used somewhat interchangeably better response. relate to a given country’s situation. across the report. 22 | Climate Vulnerability Monitor

The Monitor provides an indication of available to limit impact and the varying estimates of impacts could be higher or the scales of harm, or in some cases degrees of cost-benefit returns that lower. However, they are more likely too benefits, being triggered by climate apply to each main impact area. conservative, if only because a number change. This assists the targeting of of known impacts have simply been actions that seek to reduce harm, such WHAT ARE THE excluded -- such as effects on freshwater as those mentioned in the Adaptation REPORT'S LIMITATIONS? marine life, infrastructure damage from Performance Review. But the Monitor In general, the measures of vulnerabilities permafrost melt, and many others -- also reveals important information relied upon and sometimes the indicators which could well be significant to certain about broader strategies to deal with of impacts given are not always ideal. communities if not globally. vulnerability, such as the relationship The information drawn on must be between climate vulnerability and human comparable across the board and is Despite these shortcomings, the rough development or gender inequalities. often limited to the lowest common picture this report sets out is still likely This information can be used to inform denominator of what is available globally to be reasonably accurate. Most of the strategic socio-economic or development -- in fact a handful of countries are main impacts of climate change are planning not covered in the Adaptation excluded for not meeting even minimal covered and linked to well-researched Performance Review. data requirements, leaving a total of 184 scientific models. If adaptation efforts countries assessed. Countries are not the were put into effect to address the levels The Adaptation Performance Review best unit of analysis for climate changes, of impacts outlined here, vastly fewer itself provides an assessment of which may vary considerably across one human lives would be at risk, and many practical, concrete measures that nation. Climate scientists differ in their endangered species could be spared can be taken to reduce vulnerability agreement on key changes -- such as -- for the most part at a very low cost. and negative impacts due to climate tropical storm activity -- and the models It is also important to remember that change. “Adaptation” is taken to mean themselves vary in their confidence most adaptation efforts also strengthen any actions that help communities or or certainties in predicting a role of the general well-being of vulnerable their ecosystems cope with a changing climate change today and in the near communities and the world. climate.8 The Adaptation Performance future, as well as in predicting where, Review assesses actions for their for instance, changes like rainfall will WHO DOES effectiveness in reducing impacts that ultimately occur. Neither do changes in THE REPORT SERVE? have been pinpointed in the Monitor. It weather conditions necessarily translate The report aims to be useful for a wide only includes actions for which reliable to effects on the ground in the same range of groups. It should complement information on cost-effectiveness and degree -- and yet, in some cases, there in particular the array of tools already other key features of programmes are simply no better estimates available. available to policy-makers and decision- has been readily available. It is non- Occasional discrepancies in records used takers. Senior officials at a national level exhaustive, but provides a useful also have some effect on the accuracy will have an idea of the extent to which indication of the array of options of this report’s assessments. Overall, additional stresses due to climate change

Sandstorms are becoming increasingly common in Iraq. Source: Sinan Mahmoud/IRIN. Climate Vulnerability Monitor | 23

are likely weighing down or relieving a to counteract the rapid growth in negative term dangers of climate change. Expert country’s health system or the economy, impacts expected over the next 20 years groups were established to assist with damaging infrastructure and natural as a result of the increased warming of the development of an independent tool resources, or pressuring coastal or the planet. able to assess in a comparable way the dryland communities. And one that is climate vulnerability of nations, regions, comparable to effects seen elsewhere. In general, international climate and of the world. This first Monitor has negotiators, politicians, government already benefitted from the advice of Anywhere beyond moderate vulnerability officials, community groups, and leading experts from mainly climate implies that a country is experiencing a the media could all benefit from a change, development, and humanitarian level of impacts significantly more than familiarization with this plausible backgrounds, which act as advisors to the the average seen worldwide. Responses snapshot of the growing climate crisis Climate Vulnerability Initiative project and should be able to match, at minimum, that the Monitor provides. offer input on the content of the report. the levels of indicative impacts The tool was to provide mean estimates mentioned in this report in order to HOW WAS THE of the different levels of impacts being bring vulnerabilities back to acceptably REPORT DEVELOPED? felt by populations around the globe with low levels. Detailed sub-national and The report has been produced by an indication of how those impacts would community planning will be necessary in DARA, an independent humanitarian evolve in the near future. This first report all cases, since measures take place on organization specializing in expert publishes the results and methodology these scales. But if a national plan is in evaluation and analysis of humanitarian of that tool in full transparency. The distinct misalignment with the Monitor, assistance and development aid, with the intention is for it to serve as a departure there is likelihood that some impacts support of its research partner Commons point for generating discussions aimed may be going unaddressed, if not, the Consultants, and local expertise and at refining our understanding of climate case could be used to help evolve the guidance provided by experts in Climate vulnerability and improving both the Monitor itself -- either way it would merit Vulnerable Forum (CVF) countries and methodology and the accuracy of this further investigation. other leading specialists and partners. tool going forward. In seeking to improve The CVF itself is a unique partnership understanding of the impact of climate International experts involved in of leaders of countries worst affected change on human society, the report designing or organizing responses, by climate change from all regions of strives to: including humanitarian and development the world seeking an enhanced global actors, could also use the report response to climate change. This report • Better match responses to the needs of to improve the identification of key is issued as part of the DARA-CVF Climate the most vulnerable communities vulnerabilities linked to climate change Vulnerability Initiative. • Ensure that the public and decision- and enhance the targeting of strategies, makers know what is at stake advance planning and other activities that The Monitor was commissioned in order • Encourage research to fill the major tackle these. It will take much preparation to better ascertain the current and short- gaps in our understanding of this field