CLIMATE VULNERABILITYThe State MONITOR of the Climate 2010 Crisis EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Estimated figures are based on scientific research or expert assumptions in a world marked with uncertainty. The real numbers could be higher or lower. Climate Vulnerability *All estimated mortality statistics or deaths are representative of more widespread harm. Every 100,000 deaths would normally indicate several million cases of illness or disability (DALYs), or people displaced, in Numbers injured or in need of emergency assistance.

Nearly Some Already 1 MILLION 5 MILLION 350,000 driven CLIMATE DEATHS CLIMATE DEATHS deaths* estimated every ESTIMATED OVER THE NEXT ESTIMATED EACH single year from 2030 if TEN YEARS IN ABSENCE OF YEAR TODAY action is not taken AN EFFECTIVE RESPONSE

Almost Over Around 80% 99% 150 BILLION OF ALL CLIMATE DEATHS ARE OF ALL MORTALITY DOLLARS IN LOSSES REGISTERED ONLY AMONG OCCURS IN TO TODAY’S ECONOMY CHILDREN LIVING IN SOUTH DEVELOPING ESTIMATED TO BE CAUSED OR SUB-SAHARAN COUNTRIES BY CLIMATE CHANGE

More than Some Over HALF 170 50 OF THE TOTAL COUNTRIES -- OR MOST OF HIGHLY EFFECTIVE MEASURES INCLUDED ECONOMIC LOSSES THE WORLD -- HAVE HIGH IN THIS REPORT ARE READILY AVAILABLE TAKE PLACE IN VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE TO LIMIT VIRTUALLY ALL HARM CAUSED INDUSTRIALIZED CHANGE IN AT LEAST ONE KEY BY CLIMATE CHANGE -- JUST A GLIMPSE COUNTRIES IMPACT AREA ALREADY TODAY OF THE MANY MORE OPTIONS AVAILABLE The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures. 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change

The Climate Vulnerability Monitor aims Countries: to advance understanding of the impacts Climate Climate of climate change on human society and 184 Impact Areas Vulnerability actions needed to address these effects. It combines a series of measures, Time Frames: Health Impact - additional mortality Factors due to climate sensitive diseases ranging from human health and extreme £ Acute (most vulnerable category) weather to , sea-level 2010 and Weather Disasters - additional rise and stresses on natural resources mortality and damage in storms, £ Severe and productive sectors of the economy. floods and wildfires These indicators provide a probable 2030 £ High Habitat Loss - additional loss picture of the current state of the £ Moderate climate crisis for 184 countries around of human habitat to rising seas, the world both today and for 2030. This and degrading arid lands £ Low (least vulnerable category) global assessment provides the first Economic Stress - extra losses in comprehensive overview of vulnerability the primary/agricultural sectors of the to climate change in an internationally economy and to key natural resources comparable form. The 2010 Monitor's Adaptation Performance Review further highlights over 50 effective measures that can be readily taken to reduce the identified impacts of climate change. IRIN Mahmoud/ Sinan

A new tool for assessing the vulnerability of today’s world and its nations to climate change Director General of The Energy Ian Christoplos ADVISORY Resources Institute (TERI) Senior Project Researcher of the EDITORIAL Teresa Ribera Danish Institute for International PANEL Studies (DIIS) TEAM Mary Chinery-Hesse Secretary of State for Climate Steering Group Co - Chairs Change of Pierre Encontre Chief Advisor to the Former Ross Mountain Johan Rockström Chief of Special Programmes President of , Member Director General of DARA of the Panel of the Wise Executive Director of the of the Division for Africa, Least of the African Union Stockholm Environment Developed Countries and Marc Limon Special Programmes of the Counsellor of the Helen Clark Institute (SEI) and Stockholm Resilience Centre UN Conference on Trade and Mission to the UN and other Administrator of the UN Development (UNCTAD) Hans Joachim Schellnhuber international organizations Development Programme (UNDP) Anne Hammill in Geneva CONTENTS Jan Eliasson Founding Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Senior Researcher on Climate Former President of the UN DARA PREFACE 5 / Impact Research (PIK) Change and Energy of the General Assembly, Former International Institute for Matthew McKinnon Foreign Minister of Klaus Töpfer Sustainable Development (IISD) (Coordinating Editor) FINDINGS & OBSERVATIONS 6 / José María Figueres Former Executive Director Lucía Fernández Suárez of the UN Environment Juergen Kropp Former President of , RECOMMENDATIONS 7 / Programme (UNEP) Head of the North-South Research Geeta Uhl Chairman of the Carbon War Room Group of the Potsdam Institue for Margareta Wahlström THE MONITOR / Saleemul Huq Climate Impact Research (PIK) Commons Consultants UN Assistant Secretary-General HOW DOES THE MONITOR WORK? 8 / Senior Fellow at the International Søren Peter Andreasen for Disaster Risk Reduction Marc Levy Institute for Environment and Deputy Director of the Centre (Production Editor) Michael Zammit Cutajar DATA TABLES 9-11 / Development (IIED) for International Earth Science Jakob Mathias Wichmann Yolanda Kakabadse Former Executive Secretary of Information Network (CIESIN) the UN Framework Convention Anne-Mette Steinmeier IMPACTS / International President of the of the Earth Institute at on Climate Change (UNFCCC) World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Columbia University Peter Utzon Berg WHO SUFFERS? 12 / Bo Lim Andreas Hastrup Clemmensen Ashok Khosla A FAST GROWING IMPACT 13 / President of the International Special Climate Change Advisor of UN Development Programme Union for Conservation of A CLIMATE-DEVELOPMENT NEXUS 14 / Nature (IUCN), Chairman of PEER REVIEW (UNDP) Development Alternatives, Urs Luterbacher RESPONSE / Co-Chair of the UN Resources Panel COMMITTEE Chairman of the Environmental HOW TO RESPOND? 15 / Ricardo Lagos Yasemin Aysan Studies Unit of the Graduate Former President of Chile, Institute of International and Former Under Secretary General ADAPTATION Former President of the Club of International Federation of Development Studies of Red Cross and Red Crescent Pascal Peduzzi PERFORMANCE REVIEW 16 / Societies (IFRC) Head of the Early Warning Unit of THE ADAPTATION GAP 17 / Senator of the , UN Suruchi Bhadwal the Global Resource Information International Strategy for Disaster Database (GRID – ) of Associate Director of the Earth AFFECTED GROUPS / Reduction (ISDR) Regional Sciences and Climate Change the UN Environment Programme Champion for Disaster Risk Division of The Energy and (UNEP) FRAGILE NATIONS 18 / Reduction and Climate Change Resources Institute (TERI) Hansjoerg Strohmeyer SMALL ISLAND Adaptation for Asia and the Pacific Manuel Carballo Chief of the Policy Development The Advisory Panel and Peer DEVELOPING STATES 19 / Ahmed Naseem Executive Director of the and Studies Branch of the UN Review Committee members Minister of Foreign Affairs International Centre for Office for the Coordination of serve in their personal capacity of the Maldives Migration and Health (ICMH) Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) providing input to the Climate AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA 20 / Vulnerability Initiative that informs Rajendra Pachauri Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum Farhana Yamin the development of the Climate EMERGING MARKETS 21 / Chairman of the Senior Scientist on Public Health Portfolio Manager of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor. DARA is Intergovernmental Panel and Environment of the World Change Division of the Children’s solely responsible for the final on Climate Change (IPCC), Health Organisation (WHO) Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) content of this report. ADVANCED ECONOMIES 22 / The Climate Vulnerability Monitor lays bare the meet this growing challenge. If not, the Monitor SUMMARY5 / / P 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM sheer scale and breadth of the impacts we estimates that by 2030, over 130 countries already face. It breaks ground in pinpointing will be highly vulnerable to climate change; Preface our vulnerabilities to climate change all while over 50 countries will suffer the kinds of around the world. It shows how each country acute impacts that just a handful of particularly Climate change is vulnerable in different ways -- some due to fragile states are experiencing today. According health reasons or extreme weather patterns, to the scientific consensus, we must also is the most urgent and others as a result of economic factors begin reversing our patterns of emissions or because of land loss from expanding within the next five years to avoid even greater challenge of our time. deserts or rising sea-levels. It explains why temperature change and greater harm. many nations at the climate frontline feel the As with every study of this kind, the Monitor impacts of climate change more intensely. lacks complete certainty, but highlights And it demonstrates how quickly vulnerability enough threats of serious, or even irreversible, is accelerating almost everywhere, so that re harm that inaction is unconscionable.

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ultimately climate change could threaten the ace livelihoods, if not the survival, of all nations There is still time to act and it is well within and peoples. The fate of the world is tied to our power to solve the climate crisis. A the fate of the most vulnerable. world free from pollution would be healthier for everyone; technologies could bring This report also identifies just how energy to many who have no access today; inexpensive it is to limit the majority of the protecting communities against climate negative impacts of climate change seen impacts will bolster the fight against poverty; today, from the effects of the most violent and everybody would enjoy a safer, more storms and floods, to epidemics, severe prosperous world. drought, desertification, and even rising seas. The Climate Vulnerability Monitor is our But let us be frank: time is running out. A near contribution to the global debate. We hope doubling in warming is unavoidable in the that you will find it useful in your efforts. next 20 years or so as the lag in the planet’s greenhouse effect catches up with us. We must R icci Shryock/ I F RC

Mohamed Nasheed José María Figueres President of the Maldives Trustee, DARA Founding Chair, Former President of Climate Vulnerable Forum Costa Rica (1994-1998) CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY6 / / F 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM Findings and preventable

MUCH DAMAGE CAUSED BY observations CLIMATE CHANGE IS STILL READILY PREVENTABLE. every Multiple cost-effective measures can still be taken to reduce the impact of every main climate country stress, while greater damage continues to children be avoidable through ambitious reductions & the poor of greenhouse gases that are the main MOST IMPACTS ARE HIGHLY trigger of climate change. CONCENTRATED ON CHILDREN AND THE POOR. IND ALMOST EVERY COUNTRY The world’s poorest groups and particularly HAS HIGH VULNERABILITY TO ING children living in developing countries around ONE MAJOR CLIMATE IMPACT.

S A the world suffer the brunt of each of the main While the worst effects of climate change are negative effects of climate change. ND O highly concentrated on the world’s poorest A HOTTER EARTH groups, the range of impacts is large and

BSERVATI IS ALREADY CAUSING almost every single country is experiencing WIDESPREAD DAMAGE heightened risks to life, property and income AND DEATH. UNLESS MEASURES ARE or the environment as a result TAKEN, THE NEXT 20 YEARS of climate change. Worldwide, the annual toll of climate change WILL SEE EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ON is already a staggering 350,000 deaths, EVERY MAJOR CLIMATE IMPACT. 130 billion dollars in losses, and over

S 2 million people threatened by If measures are not taken to limit climate impacts aggravated desertification. and reduce the vulnerability of populations, the scale of every main impact will grow by over 100% in just 20 years and could result in LOW HUMAN DEVELOPMENT nearly 1 million climate-related deaths INCREASES VULNERABILITY TO each year from 2030. CLIMATE CHANGE WHILE CLIMATE TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE THREATENS KEY IS A MAJOR OPPORTUNITY. ALREADY DEVELOPMENT GOALS. Enhancing the ability of vulnerable Analysis shows a very strong correlation communities to deal with climate stresses between the degree of human development would help improve the situation of the world’s and the degree of vulnerability to climate poorest groups, while reducing change, while the most severe climate growth emissions by tapping into renewable sources impacts almost exactly mirror the of energy production could usher Development greatest lag areas in global in a new wave of productivity Nexus development progress. opportunity and human progress. IMMEDIATELY SUMMARY7 / / REC 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM REINFORCE RESPONSES TO MAJOR EXPAND CLIMATE SENSITIVE DANGER IS PRESENT. HUMAN AND GENDER HEALTH CONCERNS: RESPONSES DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS MALNUTRITION, ARE COST-EFFECTIVE. IN MOST VULNERABLE DIARRHEAL INFECTIONS, INACTION IS COUNTRIES. AND MALARIA. Equitable and sustainable development reduces Responses to climate change must increase focus UNCONSCIONABLE. the vulnerability of populations by enabling them on tackling those diseases which make up Given the estimated loss of life and other socio- to better deal with multiple risks including climate virtually all climate-related mortality and currently economic impacts of climate change, immediate change and should be boosted in those countries figure only marginally in adaptation programming. O

MME measures should be carried out on the basis of suffering severe impacts.

common but differentiated responsibilities in order ND to tackle the negative effects of largely human-

ATI induced climate change.

REINFORCE NATIONAL ON

S WIDELY PLANS TO LIMIT DISSEMINATE CLIMATE IMPACTS. Current plans for nationally adapting to climate THE CLIMATE change are largely inadequate for dealing with INVEST VULNERABILITY the scale of today’s climate impacts and should be IN FILLING URGENT MONITOR’S FINDINGS. expanded to close the adaptation gap this shortfall creates between effects and recursive actions. RESEARCH GAPS. The general public and senior decision-makers remain sceptical of the scientific consensus of Climate vulnerability and the underlying climate change and deserve to be informed of science of climate change are still frontier the possible consequences of inaction. fields of research requiring much greater investment to support improved accuracy of studies into the prevailing crisis.

Manoocher D eghati/ IRIN Manoocher Recommendations CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY8 /T / 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM Mapping climate Indicators The 2010 Monitor impacts globally by Impact Area provides the first The Climate Vulnerability Monitor The Monitor combines a series of and vulnerability results of an is a precious input to the burning indicators of negative and positive Factor for 2010 ongoing research international debate on achieving effects that climate change has on and 2030 endeavour the world’s nations. It looks at pre- a better differentiated treatment of existing characteristics of society The Monitor is built around four The Monitor was commissioned as developing countries. that are knowingly affected by distinct “Impact Areas” that an independent effort to provide PIERRE ENCONTRE, CHIEF OF SPECIAL climate change – such as exposed attempt to capture the majority guidance on vulnerabilities to PROGRAMMES, UNCTAD coastlines, populations living in of the consequences of changes climate change and to pinpoint arid regions, and climate sensitive to our climate. These Impact who faces them, when, where and diseases. Then, according to the Areas include: human health to what degree. Just one of many Health effect real or projected changes (termed: "Health Impact"), extreme possible approaches to gauging Acute+ impact in the climate will have on those weather ("Weather Disasters"), vulnerability to climate change, the

H characteristics, it maps the level desertification and sea-level Monitor’s current methodology was Acute- E M of vulnerability and expected rise ("Habitat Loss"), as well developed by DARA with critical

ON impacts. The Monitor draws on as stresses on the economic input from scientists and policy Severe+ sectors of agriculture and natural specialists active in the fields of IT established scientific models or Weather

O expert estimates to ascertain a resources ("Economic Stress"). climate change, the environment, disasters R / HO Severe- probable climate effect. National The Monitor measures 5 different development assistance and variations of climate sensitive levels of impacts, termed humanitarian relief. The Monitor

W DO socio-economic characteristics, vulnerability Factors, from Low is a constant work in progress in High+ to Acute. Vulnerability Factors tandem to ongoing scientific and or a community’s underlying Habitat

ES T calculated for each Impact Area data developments, and continues vulnerabilities, determine more High- loss the ultimate scale of impacts by country for the years 2010 to be subject to refinements H and 2030 are comparable across and review. DARA issued the E M across countries than an Moderate estimated climate effect. nations. The Monitor’s findings results of the research effort to ON provide a contrast to the majority date in its 2010 edition, which

IT of existing climate vulnerability is co-published by the Climate Low Economic O stress

R W assessments that focus on 2050- Vulnerable Forum. A climate effect 2100 timeframes.

O Unit of R measurement

K

? Contribution of climate change to baseline Baseline indicators How does the Monitor work? An assessment of what the science of climate change Time already implies for communities around the world Source: Commons analysis CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY9 / / T 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM

Country 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 Country 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030

Afghanistan Namibia

Angola Nicaragua

Bangladesh Niger

Belize

Bhutan North Korea

Burkina Faso

Chad Papua New Guinea

Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea Sao Tome and Principe

Eritrea Senegal

Ethiopia Sierra Leone H

E M Gambia

U TE AC ON Guinea-Bissau Somalia

IT

Guyana Sudan O

R / D Haiti Suriname

Honduras ATA TAB U TE AC Timor-Leste

Kazakhstan Uganda

L

ES

Kiribati

Liberia Yemen

Libya Zimbabwe

Madagascar

Malawi Algeria

Maldives and Barbuda

Mali Bahamas

Marshall Islands Benin

Mauritania Bolivia

Micronesia Botswana severe Morocco Burundi

Mozambique Cambodia

Myanmar Cameroon

Health impact Weather disasters Habitat loss Economic stress Acute+ Acute- Severe+ Severe- High+ High- Moderate Low CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10/ / T 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM

Country 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 Country 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030

Cape Verde Ecuador

Central African Republic Egypt

Congo El Salvador

Cote d'Ivoire Estonia

DRC Congo

Grenada Gabon

Guinea Georgia

Iraq Ghana

Mongolia Guatemala

Nepal Hungary severe H

E M Seychelles Iran

ON Jordan

IT Swaziland Kyrgyzstan O

R / D Tajikistan Laos h

ATA TAB Togo Lesotho h ig Tunisia Lithuania

Tuvalu Macedonia

L

ES Zambia Mauritius

Moldova

Albania

Armenia Panama

Azerbaijan Peru

Belarus Philippines

Bosnia and Herzegovina Romania

h Bulgaria

h ig Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Comoros Slovakia

Croatia Slovenia

Cuba Spain

Dominica Syria

Dominican Republic CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / / T 2010 EXECUTIVE 11 CVM

Country 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 Country 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030

Tonga

Turkmenistan

h Ukraine Saudi Arabia

United States of America Singapore h ig Uzbekistan

Venezuela derate Sri Lanka o Trinidad and Tobago m

Argentina Turkey

Australia United Arab Emirates

Bahrain Uruguay

Barbados H

E M Austria

ON Brunei Belgium

IT

Canada O

R / D Chile Finland

Colombia ATA TAB

Costa Rica

Cyprus Greece

L derate Czech Republic Ireland ES o m Iceland Italy w Israel l o Jamaica Luxembourg

Kuwait Malta

Latvia

Lebanon

Malaysia

Mexico Portugal

Oman Sweden

Paraguay Switzerland

Poland

Health impact Weather disasters Habitat loss Economic stress Acute+ Acute- Severe+ Severe- High+ High- Moderate Low CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / 12 / IMPACTS 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM / W A severe and Climate suffering The bulk of widespread impact is impacts are highly Who already being felt today is global The impact of climate change is global, even today, concentrated and it is worsening virtually everywhere. Rich in just a few countries countries are not spared from its effects with almost A very large proportion of the total consequences suffers? every country in the world registering a vulnerability of climate change for each Impact Area are shared Factor of High or above in at least one of the Impact among just 5-10 countries in every case. India, for Areas of climate change. instance, accounts for around a third of all climate- related mortality. The US and China suffer half of all damage costs due to extreme weather. India It affects and China account for around three quarters of the world’s population at risk from desertification. poor, low-emitting countries the most Vulnerabilities to climate change are overwhelmingly Relative impacts higher where socio-economic development is in most vulnerable lower: over 99% of all climate mortality occurs in countries are extreme HO SU developing countries. Least developed countries suffer one third of all climate mortality but In large countries, localized impacts may go almost contribute only about 1% to global emissions of unnoticed by the majority of the population even FF greenhouse gases that trigger climate change. when a heavy toll is felt among those directly affected. ERS? Elsewhere, small total impacts on a global scale mask extreme proportional effects which cannot be ignored. The South Pacific as a region, for instance, is already being stripped of nearly 4% of its GDP potential each year due to sea-level rise stresses alone.

Share of total climate change impact on socioeconomic regions 2010 % of total impact, Additional Deaths, Additional People at Risk of Desertification, Additional Economic Losses 2030

Additional Additional people at Additional deaths risk of Desertification Economic losses Developing 99 95 49 Countries 99 96 54

High Growth 62 83 33 Emerging Countries 55 82 35

Least Developed 34 11 7 Countries (LDC) 41 12 8

Industrialized < 1 5 51 Countries < 1 4 46 IRIN illafranca/ J V V CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / 13 / IMPACTS 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM / A F Rapid growth of all climate impacts is expected over the next 20 years and hints at a far more A fast damaging acceleration of harm post-2030 Individual countries face significant growing surges in A major shift in climate risks the vulnerability Desertification, for instance, is impact of the world’s estimated to increase by nearly nations 100% in Namibia by 2030. Economic Large increases Stress is expected to hit some will be seen in By 2030, over 130 countries will small island states with nearly total effects reach an overall vulnerability Factor 80% increases in losses over that of High compared with around 90 time. In absence of preventive A compre­hen­sive Climate mortality today is estimated today. The number of countries at around 350,000 deaths per year. measures, Myanmar and Honduras expansion of every suffering Acute effects due to climate face an almost 40% increase in single climate risk That figure should stand at close change will more than triple. to 1 million deaths per year from Weather Disaster effects. Parts of in just 20 years 2030 if measures are not taken. Africa could see a 30% increase in mortality from the Health Impact.

Climate change is accelerating. Economic costs could reach nearly AST G From 2010 to 2030, every single a third of a trillion dollars per year, climate stress will grow significantly. up from just over 100 billion today.

R

Each Impact Area shows more than O a 100% growth in effects in the next WING IMPACT 20 years. The fastest growth was estimated in desertification - set to increase by more than 250%.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT Global Vulnerability to Climate Change Number of countries per climate vulnerability factor Climate-related mortality. Additional deaths People at risk from climate-related desertification. Additional Climate related economic costs (1000) average per year (millions) average per year (billion USD PPP) average per year

15 Weather disasters 843 9.7 Weather disasters 273 Acute 54 Health impact 8 Sea-level rise 20 Economic stress 31 Severe 96 28

133 High 51 345 835 5 50 3 2.6 66 157 Moderate 61 33 341 63 2010 Low 26 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 19 2030 CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / /14 / IMPACTS 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM / A C The Millennium Development Goals for 2015 Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty Goal 5 Improve maternal health and hunger A climate- Goal 2 Achieve universal primary Goal 6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, education and other diseases Goal 3 Promote gender equality Goal 7 Ensure environmental and empower women sustainability Goal 4 Reduce child mortality Goal 8 Develop a global partnership development for development poverty worsens climate impacts which in turn undermine development Climate The main Climate driven nexus vulne­rability climate impacts poverty, follows exactly match hunger human chief MDG lag and child development areas mortality Analysis of the The 2015 Each year, climate- Monitor’s findings achievement of aggravated against indicators of the world’s most Malnutrition claims internationally CLIMATE VULNERABILITY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT human development, nearly a quarter of a Correlation between the Climate Vulnerability Monitor assessment and Human Development Index score such as the UN recognized poverty million lives, mainly Development reduction objectives, among children. The

L Average HDI score by Climate Vulnerability Factor the Millennium IMATE- Programme’s Human proportional economic acute severe high moderate low Development Index, Development Goals impact of climate demonstrates a (MDG), is most change – through

D GUINEA-BISSAU clear link between threatened by lack of sea-level rise and

EVE MOZAMBIQUE MYANMAR climate vulnerability progress on two goals agricultural and NIGER LO and socio-economic – Poverty and Hunger resource stresses – BURKINA FASO PME HAITI development. Highly (Goal 1) and Child can be over 10 times DJIBOUTI SENEGAL EQUATORIAL GUINEA MALI developed countries Health (Goal 4) – and more significant in N SIERRA LEONE virtually all have Low three regional groups, the poorest countries T N GUYANA DRC CONGO SUDAN ANGOLA SOLOMON ISLANDS MALDIVES or Moderate factors namely: Sub-Saharan compared to the highly EXUS LIBERIA MAURITANIA KAZAKHSTAN

Higher Vulnerability Higher NICARAGUA of vulnerability. Acute Africa, South Asia and developed – levels CHAD MALAWI NIGERIA BOTSWANA BURUNDI TIMOR-LESTE and Severe Factor small island countries. that should seriously TANZANIA Climate impacts GUINEA YEMEN PAKISTAN TAJIKISTAN ALGERIA LIBYA countries are almost exacerbate extreme ZAMBIA worsen above all CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC BENIN KENYA INDIA EGYPT VENEZUELA exclusively least forms of poverty.

ZIMBABWE LITHUANIA developed countries. hunger, child mortality Africa, South Asia COTE D’IVOIRE CAPE VERDE TUNISIA BELARUS TOGO CONGO UZBEKISTAN Climate Vulnerability Monitor Assessment Vulnerability Climate Lower Vulnerability Lower GHANA RUSSIA ESTONIA Every increase and extreme poverty in and small islands are SOUTH AFRICA ROMANIA COMOROS SWAZILAND SLOVENIA precisely these parts MONGOLIA JORDAN BULGARIA in vulnerability clearly worst off as EL SALVADOR URUGUAY is followed by an of the world, as if the a result of climate COSTA RICA LATVIA OF AMERICA accompanying adverse effects of change, with around CHINA SWITZERLAND BRAZIL decrease in climate change were 80% of all climate IRELAND NORWAY CANADA socio-economic surgically targeting deaths occurring in development and MDG progress. these regions alone. 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Human Development Index Score, 2010 vice versa. CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 15/ / RESP 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM The Millennium Development Goals for 2015 Limiting the negative effects of climate change Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty Goal 5 Improve maternal health on people worldwide will require more effective and hunger Goal 2 Achieve universal primary Goal 6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, targeting and integrated responses education and other diseases How to Goal 3 Promote gender equality Goal 7 Ensure environmental and empower women sustainability Goal 4 Reduce child mortality Goal 8 Develop a global partnership for development respond?

Focusing responses Comparing The findings of the Climate An integrated on impacts vulnerabilities Vulnerability Monitor remind us response that climate change hits the most Much can be done to minimize The Monitor’s overall vulnerability vulnerable people the hardest. A A differentiated set of responses the bulk of the human impact of Factor for countries only provides will be needed to address key climate change today and in the an indication of the extent to which strong focus on adaptation can impacts and vulnerabilities. near future. The most effective a given nation is suffering from help protect people’s livelihoods Concrete intervention projects must responses in terms of reducing multiple stresses. It does not provide and strengthen their resilience in be relied upon to stem immediate impacts will be those that are a comparable level of impact or effects. However, systemic an uncertain climate future. It is ON targeted at these same impacts. vulnerability, as is possible across vulnerabilities will lead to recurring therefore vital that adaptation is built SE / HO The Monitor provides a broad, individual Impact Areas. Calculating into national development strategies. problems. For instance, as long as comparative estimate of impacts a country’s overall vulnerability level there is any significant burden of across countries, which should involves the difficulty of combining Helen Clark, UNDP Administrator Malaria or Malnutrition – diseases

W T be verified against sub-national impacts such as loss of human life largely eradicated in wealthy

analysis for each of the with dollar amounts of economic countries – climate change will O RESP key Impact Areas. A focus on costs, which can only be based on likely have an exacerbating effect impacts would help avoid gaps in value judgments. on its prevalence and mortality rate.

OND adaptation policies, as is currently Fighting systemic vulnerabilities the case with certain areas, such as these will also require GLOBAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE HEALTH IMPACT ? particularly health effects: projects Countries by overall climate vulnerability for health broader policy-only responses, addressing health make up just 3% including legislation or fiscal tools. of priority adaptation projects The impacts of climate change must in vulnerable countries despite be taken into account by economic large-scale mortality estimated Acute and development planning to to be triggered by climate change. Severe ensure an effective diversification High against key climate risks. Any socio-

Moderate economic improvements that reach the most vulnerable groups will also Low significantly limit climate impacts. CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 16/ / RESP 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM Highly effective measures for adapting to climate Adaptation change already exist performance The Adaptation The 2010 Climate Vulnerability Monitor assessed over 50 Performance key actions that address each climate Impact Area reviewed Review against a uniform set of criteria covering: cost-effectiveness, co-benefits, scalability and feasibility.

Effective Half or more of actions reviewed for each Impact measures for Area received a rating of High or Very High. Actions dealing with can be taken against even the most challenging every major climate stresses, and include arid zone conservation climate stress

ON programmes targeting desertification, coral are available restoration projects to fight reef bleaching, and drip SE / A for immediate Actions were implementation irrigation and salt resistant crops for agricultural sectors of the most water stressed regions. All actions examined rated Very High,

D are already proven to function or being implemented High or Medium,

APTATI in vulnerable regions of the world. with actions rated below Medium not ON PER Health Impact Actions addressing human health were clearly the highest included in the is the highest performing Impact Area of the Review. 70% of all health- final analysis. performing targeted actions received a Very High rating and no actions response area FO received the lowest rating of Medium effectiveness. Actions This report shows that a dual RMA tackling Malnutrition, such as supplying oral rehydration Review findings therapy (a water-salt solution) or insecticide-treated anti- strategy is imperative. On

N malarial bed nets, cost in some cases less than 10 dollars the one hand global warming Cost effectiveness CE REVIEW per person and reduce mortality with a high success rate. Very High needs to be limited to 2°C, High or even less. On the other Medium co bene co Intensification of As the planet heats up, the costs of adaptation could y hand it becomes crystal it climate change escalate out of all proportion or force very difficult decisions l bi could render over what to protect and what not. Tackling sea-level rise clear that without massively f ala adaptation it

is possible but highly costly. Actions addressing fishery reducing vulnerability by s redundant Sc impacts had the lowest level of performance of any appropriate adaptation remedial actions reviewed. If certain water temperatures are measures the future will reached, it is expected that the world’s coral reefs will no feasibility longer be viable despite the best conservation programmes. not be manageable. In some regions, natural resources such as water or HANS JOACHIM SCHELLNHUBER, Health impact threatened species may require unrealistic protection FOUNDING DIRECTOR OF THE Weather disasters Habitat loss efforts, or else may simply disappear. POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR Economic stress oll CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH MA/Liz R F E MA/Liz The adaptation SUMMARY / /17 RESP 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM An adaptation gap is created when remedial actions do not gap keep pace with climate stresses The Climate impacts estimated by the Monitor Vulnerability and adaptation to long-term prevailing reveal an “adaptation gap” representing climate change are new challenges to all gap harm caused by climate change that countries. This report offers thoughtful analysis communities have not yet adapted to and of the types and degrees of vulnerability and of therefore lessened. Closing the adaptation gap means reducing these impacts through possible adaptation responses. It should be read the wide range of responses currently at our by policy-makers involved both in implementing disposal. On a country-by-country basis, national adaptation plans and in funding the Monitor estimates absolute and relative adaptation actions in other countries. adaptation gaps across the different Impact Areas for each nation. Michael Zammit Cutajar, Former Executive Secretary ON

of the UNFCCC SE / T

Poverty Climate impacts are at their most intense inhibits among poor communities possessing the H

E A responses least resources to address climate stresses.

to climate D

The approximately 7 billion dollars of APTATI impacts annual assistance to vulnerable developing countries agreed between the UN climate

summits at and Cancun is ON G clearly not of a scale capable of tackling

impacts as currently estimated. With AP annual economic losses alone at around 20 times that amount and most of the countries worst hit least responsible, valid questions of justice do arise.

Proactive If vulnerable countries fail to take local autonomous action to close the gap measures left by inadequate external assistance, will count climate change could begin to seriously undermine confidence in country-specific development prospects around the world. Affirmative local action cannot revoke any unfulfilled transnational responsibilities, but a freeze on local action will lead to an entrenchment of suffering worldwide. IRIN Yahya/ Adel CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY /18 / A 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM Fragility of nationhood and climate vulnerability FRAGILE NATIONS go hand in hand

Highly fragile Extreme climate 2010 Failed State Index Top-12 Overall Climate and highly stresses flare in Countries Vulnerability vulnerable to conflict-stricken 1. Somalia ; Acute 2. Chad ; Acute climate change countries 3. Sudan ; Acute The list of most vulnerable countries Ongoing conflict, intensive foreign 4. Zimbabwe ; Acute is dominated by fragile states. Of armed combat operations and 5. DRC Congo ; Severe the world’s 12 most fragile states peacekeeping programmes are the 6. Afghanistan ; Acute according to Foreign Policy and the shared characteristics of a core 7. Iraq ; Severe Fund for Peace, most have an overall group of countries suffering some of 8. Central African Republic ; Severe

FF Factor of Acute vulnerability, and the the most extreme climate impacts. 9. Guinea ; Severe

ECTE rest Severe. Similarly, all UN Peace Afghanistan, DRC Congo, Somalia 10. Pakistan ; Acute Operation countries assessed, and Sudan, for instance, are among 11. Haiti ; Acute

D G barring Cyprus and Lebanon, register the top-10 countries worst affected 12. Côte d'Ivoire ; Severe Source: Fund for Peace/Foreign Policy and DARA R either Acute or Severe vulnerability. by Health Impact and Weather

O

UPS / F Disasters. Somalia is also in the top-10 worst affected countries for Habitat Loss. A deficit of robust UN Peacekeeping

RA state institutions and social safety Operations Afghanistan ; Acute G nets limit the effectiveness of IL responses to climate impacts Cyprus ; Moderate

E N which themselves are so severe Côte d’Ivoire ; Severe ATI they are likely to further undermine DRC Congo ; Severe

ON prevailing security situations in Haiti ; Acute

S these countries. Lebanon ; Moderate Liberia ; Acute Sudan ; Acute Timor-Leste ; Acute Source: UN and DARA

It is crucial to have a tool like this to get through the message that the vulnerabilities of poor and fragile nations are manifold and need addressing, each and every one of them. JOSE RAMOS-HORTA, PRESIDENT OF TIMOR-LESTE CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 19/ / A 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM The island front-line of SMALL ISLAND climate change DEVELOPING STATES A rising tide Extreme tropical Facing compounded Low-income small island states weather stresses and are more exposed than any other A majority of island countries are existential threats group to the relentless rise of also highly exposed to more intense Sea-level rise erodes coastlines the world’s oceans. Half of the tropical storms. The Caribbean and and hastens immersion of low-lying top-10 countries worst affected Pacific are by far the regions worst land, some of which will disappear by Habitat Loss include low-lying affected by Weather Disasters beneath the sea before the end FF

nations such as , Marshall ECTE with both high mortality rates and of this century. Rising seas also Islands and the Maldives. The cost steep economic losses. The top-10 increase vulnerability to tropical

of rising seas for the Pacific region D G countries worst affected include the storms and tsunamis, since tidal alone is estimated at nearly 4% of island nations of Micronesia, Haiti, waves gain elevation. A combination R GDP potential a year on average – Grenada and Samoa. O of water stress, salt-infused soils UPS / SMA climbing to nearly 6% by 2030. and higher temperatures affects agricultural yields, food security, and health. Tropical regions are Sea-level rise impacts around the world

expected to experience the most LL IS The regional and socio-economic distribution of sea-level rise costs relative to GDP in 2010 and 2030 significant loss of fishery yields Additional losses (percent of GDP)

2010 2030 due to extreme sea temperatures, L

A

Central Africa ocean acidification and widespread ND D East Africa coral bleaching all linked to climate North Africa

EVE Africa change. Southern Africa

West Africa 2010

LO Caribbean 2030 eam Central America The Maldives stands at the PING STATES North America

Americas climate change frontline. So South America Australasia it has always been crystal East Asia clear to us what must be Middle East done. But what happens acific Pacific Russia And Central Asia to the Maldives today, will Asia P Asia South Asia happen to others tomorrow. .S./Japan AS TER T U .S./Japan RO S, and C 7JA South-East Asia The Monitor helps Eastern Europe to bring that clarity of vision Northern Europe Southern Europe to the entire world. E urope SF C /M ETI / ER S D A Western Europe , 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 President of the Maldives N ASA/ G CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 20/ / A 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM The continent TOTAL MORTALITY DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE worst affected % of Additional Deaths africa by climate change 2030 A continent of Combined 2010

climate suffering climate shocks 38%

Consistently high vulnerabilities Virtually all the main negative 32% 48% across virtually every African effects of climate change come to 51% Africa country cause entire sub-regions bear at high levels of impact across Rest of World of the continent to register Acute the continent. Health Impact, 17% 14% and Severe Factors of vulnerability Habitat Loss and Economic Stress South Asia to climate change. Central, East are the principal concern areas, and West Africa are the worst off, with East Africa also registering although every single region of Severe effects for Weather Africa registers elevated climate Disasters. The fast acceleration of a

FF impacts far above the global norm. number of these stressors is further ECTE compounded by the continent’s SOUTH rapid population growth, exposing D G Highly populated South Asia additional numbers of people to is remarkably vulnerable R

O accentuated environmental risks. to a range of climate impacts UPS / A ASIA Dangerous Large-scale

F

RICA RICA A climate risks consequences South Asia relies heavily on rivers Home to around one quarter of the

ND S fed by shrinking Himalayan glaciers world’s population and including a and a weakening monsoon wet large share of the world’s poorest

O season. It has faced the world’s groups, the human consequences UT most deadly tropical cyclones and of climate change in South Asia H ASIA had to cope with the most severe are significant on global scales. of flooding events and heat waves. In fact, just over half of all climate The coastal lands of the region's mortality occurs in South Asia heavily-populated low-lying deltas and alone. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, island atolls are increasingly affected India, Nepal and Pakistan figure by salt intrusion and inundated by consistently among the top-10 tidal surges. Many areas of South hardest hit countries across every Asia have also suffered from years of Impact Area except Economic Stress. unsustainable resource consumption, Low-lying Maldives has among the which affects water supplies and highest vulnerability levels to sea-level erodes a local capacity to withstand rise of any country and ultimately climate change. faces possible submersion and disappearance during this century. K looster G ijs van´t UN P hoto/ EMERGING SUMMARY / / A 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM 21 Strong economic growth does not necessarily protect MARKETS populations from climate impacts

Emerging Adaptation for TOTAL CLIMATE MORTALITY % and Deaths average per year Rest of World economies suffer the protection of 2030 South Asia the largest share vulnerable groups 2010 of total impacts In emerging economies climate 55% 45% China, India, Brazil and a dozen impacts tend to be both large in 463,000 382,000 62% 38% Advanced Economies other fast-growing developing total terms but often less significant 212,000 132,000 FF countries experience approximately in relative terms because of the Emerging Countries 0% 0% ECTE half of the total climate stresses sheer scale of countries like China, 197 -2,143 Rest of World estimated for each main Impact Iran and Egypt. Bangladesh, India, D G Area. Key emerging economies Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam, however, all register in the top two R make up between five and seven O of the top ten affected countries vulnerability Factors – of Acute UPS / EMER in total terms for every single or Severe – overall, implying also total population at risk - desertification % and total population (1000) at risk of desertification Impact Area. Emerging economies significant effects in comparison to 2030 also experience around 90% of other countries worldwide. Rapid all desertification pressures on economic growth on a national level 2010 12% G populations worldwide, due in alone does not necessarily guarantee 1,123 ING MAR diminished national climate 8% 82% particular to severe degradation in 225 7,930 vulnerability. Growing inequalities 83% Advanced Economies China and India. 2,220 7% alongside economic expansion may 8% 669 Emerging Countries 218 K even exacerbate vulnerabilities and Rest of World ETS impacts, while effective adaptation would increase protection for the most disadvantaged groups.

total economic costs % and Billion USD 2030

2010 32% 25 27% 51% 56 78 41% Advanced Economies 84 32% 17% Emerging Countries 65 58 Rest of World CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / /22 A 2010 EXECUTIVE CVM Highly developed nations are not ADVANCED left untouched and bear one third of all economic costs due to ECONOMIES climate change Not enough people High economic costs of the Southern Mediterranean. But the US and Spain are not alone. Germany yet are scared enough due to climate change and Japan, for instance, while registering about climate change. With the greatest share of the world’s lower overall vulnerability, each also JOHN ASHTON, UK wealth, advanced economies also have figure among the top-10 worst affected FOREIGN OFFICE SPECIAL more of it to lose due to climate change, countries worldwide for both Weather REPRESENTATIVE FOR or one third of the total estimated Disasters damage and Economic Stress. CLIMATE CHANGE, speaking at the launch of the FF economic impact. On average though, Climate Vulnerability ECTE such effects would not exceed a quarter Monitor, London, of one percent of GDP. So they are felt December 2010

D G much less than in low-income countries Climate mortality and where impacts can reach several R wealthy countries O percentage points of GDP on an annual UPS / A Advanced economies are expected basis. Advanced economies also have a to benefit slightly from lower burdens much greater capacity to respond. of sickness associated with shorter/

D warmer winters. No advanced economies

VA have significant burdens of the key

N CE The United States climate sensitive diseases: Malnutrition, D EC Diarrheal infections, Malaria and Dengue and Spain: most Fever. However, climate mortality is ONO vulnerable among still a major concern as demonstrated by the estimated 70,000 additional

MIES deve­loped nations deaths caused by the unusually strong The US and Spain are the only advanced 2003 European heat wave – typical of economies to register an overall the type of phenomena projected to vulnerability Factor of High in a category become more prevalent as the planet together with developing countries such continues to warm. The US for its part is as Gabon, Laos and Turkmenistan. The also particularly exposed to increased US suffers the most economic losses of mortality due to more severe tropical any country at close to 30 billion dollars cyclones and to wildfires. a year today. The US is also among the top-10 countries worst affected by desertification and sea-level rise. Spain is also highly affected by desertification due in particular to a warming and drying MA/Jace Anderson F E MA/Jace UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe V 2009 2009 the fate of the world. The fate of the most vulnerable will be G DARA © Fundación Copyright www.daraint.org [email protected] 39 00 522 +34 91 Fax 72 03 Tel 531 +34 91 Spain Madrid 28014 Felipe U CONTACT Mariano Sarmiento Comunicación Comunicación Sarmiento Mariano María Lasa, Lasa, María collaborators: Design ulnerable raphic design: design: raphic Declaration I V, 9 F I ago Álvarez. ago orum S

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Partners DARA CLIMATE COMMONS The Climate Vulnerability Monitor DARA is an independent international VULNERABLE CONSULTANTS benefits from the collaboration of organization committed to improving Commons Consultants is the its two lead partners, DARA and the the quality and effectiveness of aid FORUM principal research and production Climate Vulnerable Forum at the core for vulnerable populations suffering The Climate Vulnerable Forum partner involved in the development of the Climate Vulnerability Initiative. from conflict, disasters and climate convenes governments from Africa, of the 2010 Monitor. Commons DARA brings specialist expertise change. It carries out this mandate Asia, the , and the Pacific, Consultants is a management and independent objectivity to the through research, evaluations, representing some of the countries consulting and research firm endeavour, building on its experience technical assistance and knowledge most vulnerable to the adverse with expertise in policy analysis as a critical evaluator of development sharing. DARA was founded with the impacts of climate change. The and strategy development. Its and humanitarian aid effectiveness. compelling vision of Silvia Hidalgo to Forum first convened in the Maldives focus industries are energy and The Climate Vulnerable Forum and enhance the impact of international in November 2009 and adopted a environment, climate change, health, its members, particularly its initiating assistance for the benefit of the declaration that expressed alarm at and responsible financial services. chair (the Maldives), have contributed world's most vulnerable groups. the pace of change to the Earth caused prescient thought leadership to the DARA created the Humanitarian by climate change and committed project, as well as expertise from Response Index, which is the premier to demonstrating leadership aimed inside the climate frontlines. evaluation tool for donor effectiveness at tackling what for some nations is in humanitarian assistance. becoming an existential challenge. BOARD OF TRUSTEES The Climate Vulnerable Forum brings Diego Hidalgo (Chairman) to the Monitor its strategic leadership Aldo Ajello engagement and facilitates access Emma Bonino to key expertise. Jan Eliasson José María Figueres Beatriz Iraburu Juliet Pierce José Manuel Romero

This report provides a basis for discussion and debate on key vulnerabilities resulting from climate change, thereby enabling policy makers and the public to bring the issues of impacts and vulnerabilities into the mainstream of policymaking. Against that objective this report makes a major contribution. Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Director General www.daraint.org of The Energy Resources Institute (TERI)