CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOR ND 2EDITION A GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLANET

Climate Vulnerable Forum

KEY TO THE MONITOR

DEATHS ECONOMIC COST

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL 2010YEAR 2030VULNERABILITY 2010YEAR 2030 CLIMATE CHANGE IN CLIMATE VULNERABILITY CLIMATE ACUTEW MOZAMBIQUE COUNTRY 2 HIGHU CHANGE IN VULNERABILITY CARBON COUNTRY GROUP CARBON HOTSPOTS MULTI-DIMENSIONAL Countries estimated to experience among the largest VULNERABILITY total impacts of any country irrespective of overall size of CARBON population or wealth/GDP in at least one of the indicators MULTI-DIMENSIONAL COMBINED CAPACITY CLIMATE + CARBON

VULNERABILITY COUNTRY GROUPS MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CAPACITY

W INCREASING ACUTE DEVELOPED 4 EXTENSIVE P STABLE SEVERE OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED 3 INTERMEDIARY U DECREASING HIGH DEVELOPING COUNTRY HIGH EMITTERS 2 RESTRICTED MODERATE DEVELOPING COUNTRY LOW EMITTERS 1 HIGHLY RESTRICTED

LOW

ACUTE + ACUTE - SEVERE + SEVERE - HIGH + HIGH - MODERATE LOW COUNTRY GROUPS

List of countries by main Monitor country groups DEVELOPING COUNTRY LOW EMITTERS

DEVELOPED (ANNEX II) (NON-ANNEX I BELOW 4 TONS CO2E 2005) Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Barbados, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Chad, Colombia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Comoros, Costa Rica, Cuba, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, (ANNEX I OUTSIDE OF ANNEX II) Mauritius, Micronesia, Moldova, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan/South Sudan, Ukraine Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tonga, Tunisia, Tuvalu, Uganda, Vanuatu, Vietnam, Yemen, Zimbabwe DEVELOPING COUNTRY HIGH EMITTERS

(NON-ANNEX I ABOVE 4 TONS CO2E 2005) Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Belize, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chile, China, Congo, Cyprus, DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Grenanda, Guatemala, Guinea, Guyana, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Laos, Libya, Macedonia, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia, Myanmar, Namibia, North Korea, Oman, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, Singapore, Solomon Islands, South Africa, South Korea, Suriname, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Zambia

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOR ND 2EDITION A GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLANET DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2nd Edition. A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet

This book was set in Heroic Condensed, Franklin Gothic and Uni Sans Graphic Design: wearebold.es Icons inspired in The Noun Project collection Photographs: Thinkstock/Getty Images Includes bibliographical references

ISBN: 978-84-616-0567-5 (paper: offset 120 gr., interior; couché semimate 300 gr., cover)

LD: M-31813-2012 First published 2012

Copyright © Fundación DARA Internacional 2012 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission.

Printed and bound in Spain by Estudios Gráficos Europeos, S.A.

HEADQUARTERS GENEVA OFFICE Felipe IV, 9 – 3 Izquierda International Environment House 2/MIE2 28014 Madrid – Spain 7-9 Chemin de Balexert Phone: +34 91 531 03 72 Châtelaine CH-1219 Geneva – Switzerland Fax: +34 91 522 0039 Phone: +41 22 749 40 30 [email protected] Fax: +41 22 797 40 31 www.daraint.org

DEDICATED TO THE INNOCENT VICTIMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE A GREAT DEAL has been FEW OF THOSE familiar with IF AT THE END of this written on the influence of the the natural heat exchanges absorption of the atmosphere century, measurements upon the climate.. Another of the atmosphere, which side of the question that has go into the making of our show that the carbon long attracted the attention of climates and weather, dioxide content of physicists, is this: Is the mean would be prepared to admit temperature of the ground the atmosphere has in any way influenced by the that the activities of man presence of heat-absorbing could have any influence risen appreciably and gases in the atmosphere? (..) upon phenomena of so at the same time If the quantity of carbonic vast a scale.. I hope to acid [CO2] decreases from 1 to the temperature has 0.67, the fall of temperature show that such influence is nearly the same as the is not only possible, but it continued to rise increase in temperature if this is actually occurring at the throughout the world, it quantity augments to 1.5. And present time.” will be firmly established to get a new increase of this GUY STEWART CALLENDAR order of magnitude (3-4°C), it April 1938 that carbon dioxide is will be necessary to alter the Quarterly Journal of the Royal quantity of carbonic acid till it Meteorological Society an important factor in reaches a value nearly midway between 2 and 2.5.” causing climatic change.” GILBERT NORMAN PLASS SVANTE AUGUST ARRHENIUS May 1956 April 1896 American Journal of Physics The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science THE EARTH’S CLIMATE A HUNDRED YEARS system has demonstrably changed on both global from now, looking and regional scales since back, the only question the pre-industrial era.. The atmospheric concentrations that will appear of key anthropogenic important about the greenhouse gases (i.e., historical moment in carbon dioxide (CO2)..) reached their highest which we now live recorded levels in the 1990s.” is the question of THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE September 2001 whether or not we did anything to arrest climate change.” THE ECONOMIST December 2011 COLLABORATORS ADVISORY PEER REVIEW PANEL COMMITTEE MARY CHINERY-HESSE, Member MICHAEL MARMOT, Director, YASEMIN AYSAN, Former Under ANNE HAMMILL, Senior of the Panel of the Wise of the International Institute for Society Secretary General, International Researcher, Climate Change and African Union; Chief Advisor to and Health, University College, Federation of Red Cross and Red Energy, International Institute for the Former President of Ghana; London Crescent Societies (IFRC) Sustainable Development (IISD), Former Deputy Director-General SIMON MAXWELL, Executive SURUCHI BHADWAL, Associate Geneva of the International Labour Chair, Climate and Development Director, Earth Sciences and RANDOLPH KENT, Director, Organization (ILO) Knowledge Network (CDKN) Climate Change Division, The Humanitarian Futures Programme, HELEN CLARK, Administrator, DAVID NABARRO, Special Energy and Resources Institute King’s College, London United Nations Development Representative of the UN (TERI), New Delhi TORD KJELLSTROM, Senior Programme (UNDP) Secretary-General for Food DIARMID CAMPBELL-LENDRUM, Professor, Department of Public JOSÉ MARÍA FIGUERES, Former Security and Nutrition Senior Scientist, Public Health Health and Clinical Medicine, President of Costa Rica; Chairman ATIQ RAHMAN, Executive Director, and Environment, World Health Umea University; Visiting Fellow, of the Carbon War Room Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Organization (WHO) Honorary Professor, Australia ROBERT GLASSER, Secretary Studies (BCAS), Dhaka MANUEL CARBALLO, Executive National University, Canberra, and University College, London General, CARE International, TERESA RIBERA, Former Director, International Centre Geneva Secretary of State for Climate for Migration, Health and ISABEL KREISLER, Climate SALEEMUL HUQ, Director, Change of Spain Development (ICMHD), Geneva Policy Specialist, Environment and Energy Group, Bureau for International Institute for JOHAN ROCKSTRÖM, Executive IAN CHRISTOPLOS, Senior Project Environment and Development Researcher, Danish Institute Development Policy, Bureau Director, Stockholm Environment for Development Policy, United (IIED), Independent University, Institute (SEI) and Stockholm for International Studies (DIIS), Dhaka Copenhagen Nations Development Programme Resilience Centre (UNDP) YOLANDA KAKABADSE, JEFFREY SACHS, Director, JOSHUA COOPER, Director, International President, WWF Hawaii Institute for Human Rights JUERGEN KROPP, Head, North- The Earth Institute, Columbia South Research Group, Potsdam ASHOK KHOSLA, President, University, New York MARIANE DIOP KANE, Head of Institute for Climate Impact International Union for HANS JOACHIM SCHELLNHUBER, Forecasting, Agence Nationale Research (PIK) Conservation of Nature (IUCN); Founding Director of the Potsdam de la Météorologie du Sénégal Chairman of Development (ANAMS) ALLAN LAVELL, Coordinator, Institute for Climate Impact Programme for Disaster Risk Alternatives, Co-Chair of the UN Research (PIK) SEAN DOOLAN, Climate Change Resources Panel Management, Secretary General’s JAVIER SOLANA, President, & Environmental Governance Office, Latin America Social RICARDO LAGOS, Former ESADE Center for Global Economy Advisor, United Kingdom Science Faculty (FLASCO), San President of Chile; Former and Politics; Distinguished Senior Department for International José President of the Club of Madrid Development (DfID), Ghana Fellow, Brookings Institution; MARC LEVY, Deputy Director, LOREN LEGARDA, Senator of Chairman, Aspen Institute España PIERRE ENCONTRE, Chief, Special Center for International Earth the Philippines; UN International ANDREW STEER, President, Programmes, Division for Africa, Science Information Network Strategy for Disaster Reduction World Resources Institute, Least Developed Countries (CIESIN), Earth Institute at (ISDR) Regional Champion for Washington, D.C. and Special Programmes, Columbia University, New York Disaster Risk Reduction and UN Conference on Trade and MARGARETA WAHLSTRÖM, Climate Change Adaptation for Investment (UNCTAD) FILIPE LÚCIO, Head of the Global United Nations Assistant Asia and the Pacific Framework for Climate Services, Secretary-General for Disaster HANS-MARTIN FÜSSEL, Project World Meteorological (WMO) Risk Reduction Manager for Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation URS LUTERBACHER, Chairman, MICHAEL ZAMMIT CUTAJAR, at the European Environment Environmental Studies Unit, Former Executive Secretary, Agency (EEA) Graduate Institute of International United Nations Framework and Development Studies, Geneva Convention on Climate Change TIM GORE, International Policy (UNFCCC) Advisor for Climate Change, Oxfam International Advocacy Office, New York STEERING EDITORIAL AND GROUP RESEARCH TEAM ANDREW MASKREY, Coordinator, CO-CHAIRS EDITOR Global Assessment Report (GAR), ROSS MOUNTAIN, Director General, Matthew McKinnon UN International Strategy for DARA PROJECT COORDINATOR Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) SUFIUR RAHMAN, Director General, Lucía Fernández Suárez BENITO MÜLLER, Director Energy Economic Affairs, Ministry of Foreign PRINCIPAL PROJECT ADVIS0R and Environment, Oxford Institute Affairs, Bangladesh Søren Peter Andreasen for Energy Studies MEMBERS LEAD TECHNICAL RESEARCHERS MICHELE DE NEVERS, Visiting JAVIER DÍAZ CARMONA, Ambassador Beatriz Asensio (Coordination) Senior Associate, Center for Global for Climate Change and Global Cristian Conteduca (Modeling) Development, Washington, D.C. Environmental Affairs, Costa Rica Dominik Hülse (Quantitative) MARTIN PARRY, Fellow, Grantham SALAHUDDIN NOMAN CHOWDHURY, TECHNICAL ADVIS0R Institute for Climate Change, Director, Economic Affairs, Ministry Peter Utzon Berg Imperial College, London of Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh SENIOR AID ADVIS0R JAMES ROOP, Climate Change MATTHEW MCKINNON, Head of Magda Ninaber van Eyben Advisor for Asia and Pacific, Climate Vulnerability Initiative, DARA FIELD STUDIES COORDINATOR Climate Change Branch, AusAID Belén Paley BEN RAMALINGAM, Visiting COUNTRY STUDY RESEARCHERS Fellow, Institute of Development Nguyen Huong Tra Studies (IDS) and Research Nguyen Quang Thanh Associate, Overseas Development Nguyen Thuy Hang Institute (ODI), London Emmanuel Tachie-Obeng CARLO SCARAMELLA, Tran Chung Chau Coordinator, Office for Climate RESEARCH ASSISTANTS Change, Environment and Daniel Barnes (Coordination) Disaster Risk Reduction, UN Johanna Barth World Food Programme (WFP) Rachel Clancy MATTHIAS SCHMALE, Under Ana Chamberlain Secretary General, National Bosco Lliso Society and Knowledge Abby Moran Development, International Rachad Nassar Federation of Red Cross and Red Jenena Oliver Crescent Societies (IFRC) Ana Rodríguez Seco HANSJOERG STROHMEYER, Emily Schuckert Chief, Policy Development and PUBLICATION MANAGER Studies Branch, UN Office for the Rebecca B. Moy Coordination of Humanitarian COMMUNICATIONS AND VISUALS Affairs (OCHA) Fiona Guy (Advisor) FARHANA YAMIN, Research Christina Samson Fellow, Institute of Development Nacho Wilhelmi Studies, Brighton Begoña Yagüe GRAPHIC DESIGNERS Mariano Sarmiento (Lead) María Lasa Ruth Otero The Advisory Panel and the Peer Review Committee Marta San Marín members serve in their personal capacity, providing input COPYEDITING to the Climate Vulnerability Initiative that informs the development of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor. DARA is Morwenna Marshall solely responsible for the final content of this report. Tim Morris 8 I PREFACE PREFACE

THIS REPORT CHALLENGES A CONVENTIONAL VIEW: THAT GLOBAL ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IS A COST TO SOCIETY. INSTEAD, IT ENLIGHTENS OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HOW TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH COORDINATED EFFORTS BETWEEN NATIONS WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE MUCH-NEEDED BENEFITS FOR ALL.

limate change is already with us. It kills. It steals livelihoods. And it takes the most from those who have the least. But the costs are largely hidden from our understanding. Inaction on climate change actually takes from us all. Only together can we plot a different course:C one of greater prosperity and well-being. Technical barriers no longer hold back our transition to a low-carbon world, and technological solutions exist to manage risks. We struggle instead with other barriers. There are political barriers: while some countries are committed to change and making progress, there is still a lack of conviction among the governments of too many industrialized and developing nations. Social and cultural barriers also exist: lack of understanding causes popular indifference or even hostility to sensible change. And financial barriers mean that only a fraction of the resources needed for low-carbon development and to support worst-hit communities are being made available. To tackle all these barriers, 20 countries highly vulnerable to climate change came together to form the Climate Vulnerable Forum. Our countries favour action on climate change. We are frustrated with the inadequacy of the global response and a world economy that continues to price carbon irresponsibly. We bear witness to the extremes at the climate frontlines of today. Despite having contributed the least to climate change, we are forced, almost unaided, to take costly measures to protect our people and our economies. We know the world is rapidly becoming more not less vulnerable, and that all our fates are tied. PREFACE I 9

"Many Forum governments are already embracing the call to action: Bangladesh has committed never to exceed the average per capita emissions of the developing countries. Costa Rica aims to be carbon neutral by 2021. But there are limits to what individual countries can achieve." human plight of an increasingly hotter and more polluted planet. Severe impacts on livelihoods, health and the world’s poorest groups speak of fundamental injustices that simply cannot go unaddressed. The report relies on the incredible wealth of some of the most recently published research and scientific knowledge, assimilating literally hundreds of studies and bodies of data into a common framework that makes its collective meaning clear. More research is plainly needed and will continuously enrich our understanding, but improving knowledge should not be a premise to refrain from acting when so much is at stake. In the past, humanity has prevailed against recognized Farmers face more hot days as they set to work. SHEIKH HASINA threats to our security and prosperity. Today there Families are sleeping outside in mosquito-infested are two wars we must win: the continued fight against areas because their homes are unbearable in the heat Prime Minister of Bangladesh poverty, and the new challenge of climate change. of the night. Roads and buildings on permanently JOSÉ MARÍA FIGUERES Both can be tackled simultaneously with the same frozen land in the cooler regions are being damaged as Trustee of DARA, Former President policy framework that would shift our development melting sets in. Rivers are drying up, causing transport of Costa Rica path to a low-carbon footing. Taking action, we can shocks, while unprecedented floods are devastating other lessen the social, economic and environmental areas. Salt from rising seas harms fertile land and fresh damages of a carbon-intensive economy. water supplies. Coastlines erode. Land is submerged. We would create jobs, investment opportunities, Populations fail to make a living. People move. new possibilities for international cooperation and Pollution also kills. It acidifies lakes and oceans, technological deployment to the benefit of all. poisons plants and animal life, corrodes infrastructure Despite capacity constraints, many Forum and contaminates the air we breathe. governments are already embracing the call to We pay for each of these damages in lives, suffering action: Bangladesh has committed never to exceed and dollars. Yet the world has struggled to see how all the average per capita emissions of the developing these concerns are interlinked. That is why this report countries. Costa Rica aims to be carbon neutral has sought to tackle our knowledge barriers. by 2021. But there are limits to what individual With a better understanding of the full array of issues countries can achieve. and the causes behind them, nobody should remain Solving the climate challenge requires broadest indifferent or inactive. international cooperation. And yet countries still The Climate Vulnerable Forum commissioned this argue economic barriers to change. This report argues second Climate Vulnerability Monitor at its Ministerial instead that strong measures on climate change would Meeting at Dhaka in November 2011. The report was reap the most monetary benefits for society. again mandated to DARA for independent development Indeed, building global partnerships where all nations and was reviewed by an external Advisory Panel and can fully participate in the transition to a low-carbon Peer Review Committee comprised of international economy will lessen costs and heighten the social, authorities on this subject. environmental and economic dividends for all. Just Against a struggling world economy, its main findings as supporting vulnerable communities will ultimately offer sobering news: climate change is already lowering improve the well-being of society as a whole. economic output globally and will increasingly hold Divided, we face declining prosperity and immense back growth – unless strong action is urgently taken. suffering. Together, we have the chance to strengthen Its pages seek to move us to act by highlighting the global welfare and safeguard the fate of the nations. 10 I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This report was a project that took on a life – almost – of its own. Unrivalled is a word that comes to mind when describing the energy, interest and dedication of our core partners: donors, advisors, researchers, reviewers, the team within DARA, experts at Commons Consultants, or the celebrated graphic designers – wearebold.es – who made the “measles” you generally love (and less often disprove of) as readers.

We set out to “improve” the 2010 report and ended up with something that struggles to bear a passing resemblance to what we thought was a useful contribution back in 2010. Somehow four maps turned into fifty-nine, a methodology note of twenty- five pages became a tome of well over one hundred that we ultimately couldn’t print in the book (the reader will find it online: www.daraint.org/cvm2). “Expert” workshops in Accra and Hanoi developed into fully-fledged policy exchanges, while delegates of the Climate Vulnerable Forum crowded Side Event rooms in Durban, Bonn and Rio. We hope you all appreciate the final result and cannot thank you enough for helping us to pull this unusual new work together.

Some much warranted apologies go to our close families and those of the core collaborators on this project. Thanks next to Lucía Fernández Suárez and the whole team and house in DARA, all of whom have helped make this report what it is – included of course are DARA’s Board of Trustees, in particular our key benefactor Diego Hidalgo, and our Trustee José María Figueres.

May we also extend our utmost gratitude to friends and colleagues at King’s College’s Humanitarian Futures Programme at the helm of the FOREWARN project, of which this report is one part: Randolph Kent, Hugh Macleman, Jonathan Paz, Emma Visman and Okey Uzoechina.

We would like to thank the members of our Advisory Panel for their generous insight and contributions to this effort over many, many months: Mary Chinery-Hesse, Helen Clark, José María Figueres, Robert Glasser, Saleemul Huq, Yolanda Kakabadse, Ashok Khosla, Ricardo Lagos, Loren Legarda, Michael Marmot, Simon Maxwell, David Nabarro, Atiq Rahman, Teresa Ribera, Johan Rockström, Jeffrey Sachs, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Javier Solana, Andrew Steer, Margareta Wahlström, and Michael Zammit Cutajar. And also to Jan Eliasson, even though you had to take up a new role part way through the endeavour, we were and will continue to be most grateful for your encouragement and support. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I 11

The Peer Review Committee continually challenged us and and Peter Utzon Berg as the primary Technical Advisor to the suggested innovations, adjustments and corrections we never endeavour. Your honed creativity and technical precision allowed would have thought of ourselves. We certainly hope the final this project to achieve its close to outlandish aims. report meets your high expectations of it: Yasemin Aysan, Suruchi Mariano Sarmiento, lead designer and his dedicated and Bhadwal, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Manuel Carballo, Ian talented team are responsible for all of the extremely helpful or Christoplos, Joshua Cooper, Mariane Diop Kane, Sean Doolan, too complex graphics in this report, depending on your viewpoint. Pierre Encontre, Hans-Martin Füssel, Tim Gore, Anne Hammil, However, the complexity is all our fault and not Mariano's nor Randolph Kent, Tord Kjellstrom, Isabel Kreisler, Juergen Kropp, his team’s – what you see is much, much better than anything Allan Lavell, Marc Levy, Filipe Lúcio, Urs Luterbacher, Andrew we would have subjected you to without their help. Morwenna Maskrey, Benito Müller, Michele de Nevers, Martin Parry, James Marshall, thanks once again for being there even at the most Roop, Ben Ramalingam, Carlo Scaramella, Matthias Schmale, inconvenient moments, and to Tim Morris, our copy editors who Hansjoerg Strohmeyer, and Farhana Yamin. each receive a special vote of thanks.

The Government of Bangladesh as Chair of the Climate We particularly owe our thanks to additional scientists and Vulnerable Forum has not ceased to drive forward the climate experts who provided strong guidance and assistance with model cause with energy and dynamism in a truly international spirit. selection of which there are simply too many to list here. You may Thank you for your openness to the research team’s fresh ideas have just thought you were just doing our chief modeller, Cristian on this topic, and your willingness to explore where they might Conteduca, a favour (you were) but your assistance in helping us lead. Thanks goes in particular to Dr. Dipu Moni, The Honorable to track down the knowledge which forms the foundation of this Foreign Minister of Bangladesh; Dr. Hasan Mahmud, The work was absolutely fundamental to helping this report make Honorable Minister of Environment and Forests of Bangladesh; what we hope is a meaningful contribution to the debate. Antonia Ambassador Mohamed Mijarul Quayes, Foreign Secretary of Praetorius, Sebastian Strempel, YiWei Ng, we thank you. Bangladesh; Mr. Mesbah ul Alam, Secretary of Ministry of Environment and Forests; Ambassador Abdul Hannan, Permanent Many thanks also to the governments of Ghana and Vietnam and Representative to the United Nations Office at Geneva; Dr. S.M. to the UNDP country offices there, as well as UNDP headquarters Munjurul Khan, Deputy Secretary of Ministry of Environment and in New York, for your most helpful support. In Vietnam, Live&Learn, Forests; Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Hang Nguyen and colleagues were tremendous in supporting our Mr. Rahman Mustafizur; and Mr Faiyaz Murshid Kazi of the country research, and in Ghana, the Environmental Protection Bangladesh Foreign Ministry. Finally, thanks so much to two of Agency-Ghana with expert support from Emmanuel Tachie-Obeng the leading doyens of international macro-economic diplomacy did a highly effective job of facilitating our trip and national and in South Asia: Mr. Md. Sufiur Rahman, Director General and Mr. community activities and for which credit is deserved. Mary Chinery- Salahuddin Noman Chowdhury, Director, each of Economic Affairs Hesse, thank you so much for welcoming us and taking part. Wing of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bangaldesh – may you continue to think and lead the way forward. Finally, many thanks goes to Christer Elfverson, Magda Ninaber van Eyben, Marc Limon and Erik Keus, all of whom went out of To our donors at AECID, AusAID and Fundación Biodiversidad: their way to help see this project achieve its objectives. Thanks thank you for your many efforts to support this project and your additionally to John Cuddy, Christiana Figueres, William Hare and helpful assistance in coordinating and realizing the wide-ranging Nicholas Stern for your sage advice, and to the Asia Society and activities involved. Thank you Juan Ovejero Dohn for looking after friends at TckTckTck for your kind support behind the Monitor the team in Hanoi and Vietnam. To the Australian (and Italian) launch. team in Accra, we hope you also enjoyed the experience of the country study: Sarah Willis and Azzurra Chiarini. ROSS MOUNTAIN DARA Director General This report would not have been possible without the analytical expertise and dedicated work of Commons Consultants, the main MATTHEW MCKINNON research and production partner of DARA in this effort, a team led by Søren Peter Andreasen as Principal Advisor to the project Editor

CONTENTS

I N T R O D U C T I O N 1 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 16 FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS 24 RECOMMENDATIONS 28 RESEARCH PROCESS 36

KEY ISSUES 40

A VERY SHORT HISTORY OF CLIMATE SCIENCE 58

THE MONITOR 60

CLIMATE 104 ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS 106 HABITAT CHANGE 124 HEALTH IMPACT 154 INDUSTRY STRESS 176

COUNTRY STUDIES 202 GHANA 204 VIETNAM 216

CARBON 228 ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS 230 HABITAT CHANGE 240 HEALTH IMPACT 254 INDUSTRY STRESS 272

METHODOLOGY 286

MONITOR DATA TABLES 292 PARTNERS 302 ABBREVIATIONS 303 GLOSSARY 304 BIBLIOGRAPHY 308 14 I INTRODUCTION A GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS INTRO- OF A HOT PLANET DUCTION

TWO DECADES OF FAILURE TO ACT worsened.4 Although no country is unabated and efforts to support the First, this report draws on the most DECISIVELY ON CLIMATE CHANGE spared the impact: a depleted ozone worst-affected communities fail to recent science and research into HAVE MADE THE EARTH HOTTER layer for instance – also caused meet the challenges at hand. different climate-related impacts, AND MORE POLLUTED.1 There is by potent greenhouse gases – has The losses incurred already exceed taking advantage of the incredible still a window of opportunity, fast significantly increased the incidence by a significant margin any costs growth in understanding on this closing, to scale back pollution and of skin cancer, above all in the of reducing emissions in line with issue since the 1990s era research tame the rising heat. But the world wealthiest of countries. The US a low-carbon transition.6 Action that provides the basis of almost all economy is locked onto a different will lose more than 2% of its GDP on climate change would therefore other studies of this kind.9 course: fossil fuel consumption by 2030 according to this report’s already reap monetary benefits Second, building on freshly available is expected to continue its rapid estimates.5 for the world, both globally and for research, a number of new effects growth in the coming decades.2 On the basis of this report’s major economies like the US, China are considered here. Chief among Major economies not committed to comprehensive reassessment of and India. these is the impact that increasing low-carbon development would need the incremental costs and benefits So the second cold, bottom-line heat has on labour productivity, or to enact policy changes to alter this of a hotter, more polluted planet, calculus of a hot planet is that the fact that workers (especially fact. Current frontline stockpiles a second cold calculus can tackling climate change is already outdoors) produce less in a given of hydrocarbons – of oil, coal, and also be made. sensible in economic terms hour when it is very hot. Fractional gas – are multiples of what could Climate change is found to have today. The step will also minimize increases in global temperature can possibly be consumed this century already set back global development widespread illness and mortality translate into tens of additional hot if the climate is to be kept under by close to 1% of world GDP. that inaction causes. And it would days with each passing decade.10 control, despite being valued as if all This impact is felt, but rarely bolster the fight against poverty Labour productivity is estimated to and more of these will be burnt.3 counted, in the bottom lines of while helping to safeguard a natural result in the largest cost to the world The cold calculus of a hot planet companies, industries and major world in steep decline.7 economy of any effects analysed is that millions of people already economies, and is already playing The findings of this report differ in this report. Other effects newly suffer from the failure of the world a role in determining the wealth from previous studies that largely considered here include the thawing economy to embark on a low-carbon or poverty of nations. Inaction understand climate change as a net of permafrost in cold regions and transition. This report estimates that on climate change cost Least benefit or minimal cost to society the accelerated depreciation of 5 million lives are lost each year Developed Countries an average of today (or prior to mid-century), and infrastructure that results as frozen today as a result of climate change 7% of their GDP for the year 2010 – which inform current economic land shifts when it thaws.11 and a carbon-based economy, with losses that will greatly increase decision-making on climate change, Finally, this report also considers a with detailed explanations for in the years ahead. Indeed, the making it easier for governments to full range of the closely inter-linked why this is the case found in the explosive increase in heat expected avoid serious action.8 costs and benefits of the carbon relevant chapters that follow. In over the coming decades will only While the methods of this study economy, independent of any particular, effects are most severe lead to a corresponding escalation resemble previous research, three climate change impacts. When for the world’s poorest groups in these costs, increasingly holding key distinctions in the approach have accounting for the large-scale whose struggle against poverty is back growth as emissions go led to fundamentally different results. costs imposed by carbon-intensive hazards to human health, the environment and economic sectors, THE CLIMATE VULNERABLE FORUM such as the fisheries industry, the full The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) is an international cooperation group for coordination, advocacy and knowledge- costs of inaction are laid bare. Human society and the natural building among countries that face significant insecurity due to climate change. The Forum has distinguished itself world, it turns out, are fundamentally through a determination to catalyze more effective and broad-based action for tackling the global climate challenge, susceptible to changes in ambient internationally and nationally. Founded in 2009 by the Maldives, it now includes 20 governments and is a major foreign heat. Civilization itself emerged during an age subsequent to the last policy initiative of its current chair, Bangladesh. The Climate Vulnerability Monitor’s second edition was commissioned glacial era that was characterized at the November 2011 Ministerial Meeting of the Forum at Dhaka, Bangladesh. by a uniquely stable and mild INTRODUCTION I 15 climate. The balance is delicate: the world. Its role is to shed light on Monitor itself is then presented, DARA a few degrees cooler and much of how society experiences inaction with the results of the assessment the northern hemisphere freezes.12 on the climate crisis today in order provided for every country and Founded in 2003, DARA is an Several degrees hotter and parts that the insight might assist in each of the different indicators independent organisation of the planet exceed the thermal enhancing the contemporary global used detailed one-by-one with key maximum at which human beings response to this most serious of information provided each time headquartered in Madrid, Spain, can exist outdoors.13 societal concerns. The study has at the country level, for different committed to improving the The world is just one degree benefitted from the input of wide- groups and overall. Finally, a quality and effectiveness of aid for Celsius (1.8° F) hotter than prior ranging external advisory bodies number of special focus sections vulnerable populations suffering to industrialization – the principal and field research undertaken in are also contained in this report, cause of climate change.14 But small Ghana and Vietnam. including independent chapters from conflict, disasters and climate changes count: Ghana for instance, Governments like those of the on the country-based research change. DARA was mandated by a focus country in this report, has Climate Vulnerable Forum are undertaken in Ghana and Vietnam. the Climate Vulnerable Forum as warmed faster than others. In already allocating significant It is the hope that this report will independent developer of the just 50 years, the number of very taxpayer funds to deal with spur debate and awareness of hot days in Ghana has increased the local effects of climate the double-sided cold calculus of Climate Vulnerability Monitor in its by 50 in number.15 Inaction on change as they are taking hold. action versus inaction on climate first and second editions. climate change would see Ghana Governments worldwide are change with which the world now experience three to five times weighing macroeconomic energy desperately struggles. that increase in heat this century and environmental policies, from The choice for society is critical but alone.16 infrastructure incentives to low- hardly difficult if the externalities It goes almost without saying carbon regulation, nuclear energy of inaction on climate change that changes of this proportion reliance, or the exploitation of have indeed been underestimated have profound effects for human hazardous unconventional fuel by the world economy. Business- beings, the natural environment reserves. In doing so, decisions as-usual impacts would for this and the market economy. Releasing are being made to allocate highly century be multiples of any costs gigatonnes of carbon dioxide and specific sums of money, human and associated with a transition to a other pollutants and gases into the intellectual capacities, and other low-carbon economy and imply atmosphere every year is neither resources of all kinds. unthinkable human suffering. a safe, sound nor healthy practice The Monitor helps to inform these All but the firmest responses when cleaner, safer and more decisions by presenting a snapshot leave the door wide open to environmentally sound alternatives of what current knowledge on catastrophic risks and threats to so readily exist. Low-carbon energy climate change issues in their the planet’s ability to support life, solutions –such as wind, solar, aggregate can reasonably be none of which even enter into the tidal or geothermal power – involve assumed to imply for the world. The Monitor’s assessment of costs. 10 to 100 times less negative analysis includes monetary, human According to the International externalities than carbon-intensive and ecological estimations of the Energy Agency, just five years alternatives.17 ramifications of inaction on climate remain for the world’s major Even for the sceptically minded, change. These estimations are economies to enact structural 1 The UN Framework Convention on Climate the argument for switching to safer, the result of this specific research economic transformations in Change was signed in 1992 (UNFCCC, 1992) less damaging energy sources can effort and provide a reference of order to break out of a dead end 2 US EIA, 2011; IEA, 2011 3 be justified on account of the heavy interest when considering what business-as-usual trap. If not, BP, 2011; US EIA, 2011; CTI, 2011 4 UNDP, 2007 costs of the prevailing carbon- societal benefits might result from planned investments in high-carbon 5 Martens, 1998; UNEP, 2002 intensive means. different policy strategies. The infrastructure would from 2017 rule 6 For mitigation costs, see: Edenhofer et al., 2010 and IPCC, 2012b The Climate Vulnerability Monitor exercise enables the comparison out keeping the global temperature 7 Butchart et al., 2010; Crutzen, 2010 (hereafter: “the Monitor”) was of costs with benefits in order to rise below the internationally agreed 8 Tol, 2011; Nordhaus, 2011 9 18 Tol, 2011; Exceptions include: Nordhaus, 2006; commissioned by the Climate judge the overall merits of different on level of 2° Celsius (3.6° F). Rehdanz and Maddison, 2005 Vulnerable Forum, an international endeavours. Technological barriers no longer 10 Kjellstrom et al., 2009 11 Nelson et al., 2002 cooperation group of climate- The report’s structure has three hold back the transition. Prolonging 12 Petit et al., 1999 insecure countries, and mandated main parts. The front matter of change only increases costs. 13 Sherwood and Huber, 2010 to DARA as an independent global the report provides an executive Firm, urgent and internationally 14 IPCC, 2007a 15 McSweeney et al., 2012: "A 'Hot' day or 'hot' study into precisely these effects. summary, context to and details of cooperative action heightens night is defined by the temperature exceeded on 10% of days or nights in the current climate of As its name indicates, the report this study, as well as an overview benefits for all. The best way that region and season." serves to monitor the evolution of of key findings and a series forward is quite obviously clear. 16 Ibid 17 changes related to the climate as of detailed recommendations IPCC, 2012a 18 IAE, 2011 they are already being felt around targeted at specific groups. The 16 I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report provides a reassessment of the human THE MAIN FINDING OF THIS REPORT IS THAT and economic costs of the climate crisis. The CLIMATE CHANGE HAS ALREADY HELD BACK reassessment is based on a wealth of the latest GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT: IT IS ALREADY A research and scientific work on climate change and SIGNIFICANT COST TO THE WORLD ECONOMY, the carbon economy, research that is assimilated as WHILE INACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE CAN BE a part of this report. CONSIDERED A LEADING GLOBAL CAUSE OF DEATH.

CLIMATE – TOTAL COSTS CARBON – TOTAL COSTS

W149% W57%

4% 4% 6% 18%

6% 12% 6% 32% 18%

21% 2030 2030 36% 2010 2010 54%

38% 41% 58% 46%

Developed Developing Country High Emitters Developed Developing Country High Emitters

Developing Country Low Emitters Other Industrialized Developing Country Low Emitters Other Industrialized

CLIMATE – TOTAL DEATHS CARBON – TOTAL DEATHS

W35% U1%

1% 14% 5% 4%

2% 15% 43% 4% 5%

2030 2010 2010 2030

83% 85% 48% 46% 45%

Developing Country High Emitters Developing Country Low Emitters Developed Developing Country High Emitters Other Industrialized Developing Country Low Emitters Other Industrialized EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 17

This report estimates that climate change causes the world’s oceans, the slow response of the carbon TECHNICAL SUMMARY 400,000 deaths on average each year today, mainly cycle to reduced CO2 emission and limitations due to hunger and communicable diseases that on how fast emissions can actually be reduced.1 The Monitor presents a new and affect above all children in developing countries. The world economy therefore faces an increase in original analysis, synthesizing Our present carbon-intensive energy system and pressures that are estimated to lead to more than a the latest research and scientific related activities cause an estimated 4.5 million doubling in the costs of climate change by 2030 to information on the global impact deaths each year linked to air pollution, hazardous an estimated 2.5% of global GDP. Carbon economy – including benefits and losses occupations and cancer. costs also increase over this same period so that – of climate change and the carbon economy in economic, environmental and health terms. OVERALL COSTS Climate change already causes Losses 2010, 400,000 deaths each year on Bln PPP Losses 2010, Net Losses, Net Losses, corrected USD % of GDP % of GDP 2010 % of GDP 2030 average. The present carbon- Climate 696 0.9% 0.8% 2.1% intensive economy moreover Carbon 542 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% is linked to 4.5 million deaths worldwide each year. Climate World 1,238 1.7% 1.6% 3.2% change to date and the present carbon economy are estimated Climate change caused economic losses estimated global GDP in 2030 is estimated to be well over to have already lowered close to 1% of global GDP for the year 2010, or 700 3% lower than it would have been in the absence of global output by 1.6% of world billion dollars (2010 PPP). The carbon-intensive climate change and harmful carbon-intensive energy GDP or by around 1.2 trillion economy cost the world another 0.7% of GDP in that practices. dollars (2010 PPP). Losses are year, independent of any climate change losses. Continuing today’s patterns of carbon-intensive expected to increase rapidly, Together, carbon economy- and climate change- energy use is estimated, together with climate reaching 6 million deaths and related losses amounted to over 1.2 trillion dollars change, to cause 6 million deaths per year by 2030, 3.2% of GDP in net average in 2010. close to 700,000 of which would be due to climate global losses by 2030. If The world is already committed to a substantial change. This implies that a combined climate-carbon emissions continue to increase increase in global temperatures – at least another crisis is estimated to claim 100 million lives between unabated in a business-as-usual 0.5° C (1° F) due to a combination of the inertia of now and the end of the next decade. A significant fashion (similar to the new IPCC RCP8.5 scenario), yearly average global losses to world NUMBER OF DEATHS output could exceed 10% of 2010 2030 global GDP before the end of Diarrheal Infections 85,000 150,000 the century, with damages accelerating throughout the Heat & Cold Illnesses 35,000 35,000 century. The costs of climate Hunger 225,000 380,000 Climate change and the carbon economy Malaria & Vector Borne Diseases 20,000 20,000 are already significantly higher Meningitis 30,000 40,000 than the estimated costs of Environmental Disasters 5,000 7,000 shifting the world economy to Air Pollution 1,400,000 2,100,000 a low-carbon footing – around Indoor Smoke 3,100,000 3,100,000 0.5% of GDP for the current Carbon decade, although increasing for Occupational Hazards 55,000 80,000 subsequent decades.1 Skin Cancer 20,000 45,000 This report and scientific World 4,975,000 5,957,000 literature imply adaptation costs 18 I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

share of the global population would be directly pronounced vulnerabilities resulting from climate to be at least 150 billion dollars affected by inaction on climate change. change: sub-Saharan Africa, small island developing per year today for developing Global figures mask enormous costs that will, in states, and South Asia in particular. countries, rising to a minimum particular, hit developing countries and above all the Poverty reduction efforts are in peril as the potential of more than 1 trillion dollars world’s poorest groups. Least Developed Countries temperature increase the world is already committed per year by 2030. These costs (LDCs) faced on average in excess of 7% of forgone to has only begun to be realized, and the world’s are, however, considerably GDP in 2010 due to climate change and the carbon major economies are in no way spared. The United lower than costs of damages to economy, as all faced inequitable access to energy States, China and India in particular are expected developing countries estimated and sustainable development. to incur enormous losses that in 2030 for these here, so adapting to climate Over 90% of mortality assessed in this report occurs three countries alone will collectively total 2.5 trillion change is very likely a cost- in developing countries only – more than 98% in the dollars in economic costs and over 3 million deaths effective investment in almost case of climate change. per year, or half of all mortality – the majority in India all cases and should be central Of all these losses, it is the world’s poorest and China. to any climate change policy. communities within lower and middle-income The whole world is affected by these comprehensive Beyond adaptation, this report countries that are most exposed. Losses of income concerns: 250 million people face the pressures also emphasizes the urgency among these groups is already extreme. The world’s of sea-level rise; 30 million people are affected of mitigating key risks: tackling principal objectives for poverty reduction, the by more extreme weather, especially flooding; food security, indoor fires/ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), are therefore 25 million people are affected by permafrost smoke, air pollution and other under comprehensive pressures, in particular as a thawing; and 5 million people are pressured by health issues such as diarrheal result of climate change. desertification. The pressures that these combined illnesses, malaria and meningitis The impact for rural and coastal communities in stresses put on affected communities are immense that are all urgent priorities the lowest-income settings implies serious threats and force or stimulate the movement of populations. for lessening the extent of the for food security and extreme poverty (goal 1 As is highlighted in the Ghana country study in this human toll of this crisis. of 8), child health and the ability of children to report, they can also fuel violence and an erosion of With costs due both to attend school (goals 2 and 4), maternal health the social and economic fabric of communities. unabated climate change and women’s development (goals 3 and 5), the The impact of climate change on Labour Productivity and the carbon economy prevalence of infectious diseases (goal 6) and, is assessed here as the most substantial economic expected to rise rapidly over through water, fisheries and biodiversity impacts, loss facing the world as a result of climate change. A the course of this century, environmental sustainability (goal 7). Furthermore, large proportion of the global workforce is exposed tackling climate change by in a difficult fiscal environment, the advent of to the incessant increase in heat, with the number of reducing emissions yields net climate change has pressured governments to divert very hot days and nights increasing in many places benefits to the world economy Official Development Assistance (ODA) funds from by 10 days a decade.2 Developing countries, and in monetary terms – amounting other development commitments and activities in especially the lowest-income communities, are highly to around a 1% higher GDP an attempt to provide support for climate change vulnerable to these effects because of geographical for the entirety of the 21st concerns, including to a marginal degree, for location – northern countries like Scandinavia, it is century (net present value at helping vulnerable communities adapt to climate assumed, benefit from improved labour productivity a 3% discount rate). World change. The Green Climate Fund, agreed upon due to warmer weather – but also because their net benefits from action on in incrementally greater detail at the successive labour forces have the highest proportion of non- climate change are insensitive international climate talks at Copenhagen, Cancún climate controlled occupational environments.3 to discount rates from 0.1% and Durban, faces an economic environment of Global productivity in labour is surging due to to 20% (the highest tested). declining ODA tied to acute fiscal crises across technological advances and a shift of emphasis from Even the most ambitious a host of the world’s wealthiest economies (see: agricultural activities to an industrial and service reductions in emissions aimed climate finance). These developments have sector focus for most developing countries, among at holding warming below 2ºC 4 ultimately compromised the global partnership other key developments. Climate change, however, (e.g. 400ppm CO2e/IPCC AR5 for development (goal 8). Lag areas towards MDG holds back the full extent of productivity gains RCP2.6 scenario) generates achievement also align very closely with the most the world would otherwise enjoy.5 In this way, the economic benefits for the EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 19

costs of climate change are hidden, which helps to registered in many developing regions of the world, world economy after accounting explain in part how their full extent may have been in particular for sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacific.6 for the costs of reducing emissions missed. Even so, not all have benefitted from fast Not one country is invulnerable to the combined (mitigation costs). Limiting warming expanding labour productivity: labour productivity is effects of climate change and the carbon economy. to this level would limit human, a core indicator for MDG 1 (on extreme poverty and Inaction on climate change penalizes every country territorial and ecological damage hunger), for instance, where little progress has been in the world, just as all are set to gain from action as well as other concerns, such as climate-induced forced movement MULTI-DIMENSIONAL VULNERABILITY of human populations. Over 98% of all climate change CLIMATE mortality and over 90% of all carbon economy related mortality is in developing countries: between 80% and 90% of all economic costs are projected to fall on developing countries. The most extreme effects of climate change are estimated to be felt by the Least Developed Countries, with average GDP losses of 8% in 2030. With respect to carbon economy effects, inequitable access to sustainable development sees Least Developed Countries again incurring the highest relative losses at over 3% of GDP, while between two thirds and three quarters of all carbon economy costs are borne by developing countries. When the costs of climate change CARBON and the carbon economy estimated here are combined, not one country in the world is left unharmed. In terms of regional incentives to tackle climate change, every region is estimated to experience net economic benefits from action on climate change even for the highest levels of action. The Monitor only analyses incremental impacts as a result of climate change, or changes in the frequency of well-known stochastic events, such as floods and landslides. Not assessed here in any way are potential catastrophic impacts that could occur due to Acute Severe High Moderate Low more rapid climate change fuelled 20 I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

on climate change. Moreover, the vulnerability of There are, however, limits to the ability of by feedbacks such as a release the world is shifting with every passing decade. populations to adapt. The oceans can hardly be of Arctic methane deposits, more Countries once resilient to marginal weather effects refrigerated against marine stresses.9 Desert rapid sea-level rise that could result increasingly realize susceptibilities to a changed encroachment can be prevented but rarely reversed, from the disintegration of the West climate as the increase in heat and associated and if so, generally at great expense.10 It might be Antarctic Ice Sheet or large-scale effects continue to reach new extremes. possible to protect a beach, but concrete polders climatic disruptions such as the Some quite serious damage is now unavoidable, could well be to the detriment of an area’s authentic collapse of ocean circulation but certain losses can still be reduced in the short charm and so to the value of properties. mechanisms, all of which are term. In particular, human costs can be transferred A low-carbon, renewable economy – of hydro, wind, understood to pose significantly to economic costs. This can be achieved through solar, geothermal, tidal and other innovative sources of larger human, economic and programmes aimed at reducing rural poverty – at the energy – now competes with the most carbon-intensive ecological risks than anything origin of hunger deaths and many communicable forms of power generation in the open market, where portrayed here. The possibilities diseases afflicting the world’s poorest groups, with they constitute around 10% of the global energy mix of these events are by no means risks that worsen with climate change. Or it can be today.11 Shifting the balance in favour of low-carbon ruled out, with risks increasing achieved by ensuring clean air regulations, safer energy has been estimated to cost approximately 0.5% substantially with warming.2 Other working conditions and modern energy options for or less of GDP for the current decade.12 economists have therefore factored people at risk due to carbon-intensive forms of energy. The carbon economy is largely responsible for such risks into their economic All these measures will save lives but cost money. the incredible growth in overall wealth society analysis to a degree.3 Economic losses themselves can also be lessened. A has amassed over the last 200 years, although, Only with the deep and sustained major recent review of humanitarian assistance work according to the World Bank, 1.3 billion people emissions reductions spelled out noted that Mozambique had requested 3 million continue to remain trapped in dire poverty.13 in the lowest of the new IPCC RCP dollars from the international community for flood Regardless, an economic system developed to 2.6 scenario is there a reasonable preparations. That sum went unsecured, and 100 support a global population of 1 or 2 billion people chance (comfortably over 50%) of million dollars was subsequently spent on emergency in the 19th century is ill suited to a global population not exceeding the internationally flood response.7 Investment in agriculture might in excess of 7 billion and growing.14 accepted “safety” temperature also be cost-effective if the costs of supporting The climate challenge runs in parallel to other key threshold of 2ºC global mean upgraded farming were to generate more benefits (in global developments: a growing world population, warming above preindustrial.4 Given productivity, output) than the initial outlay.8 a major propensity to urbanization, and structural the clear human, ecological and,

** REGIONAL COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, 2010-2100 PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL GDP (NOMINAL), NET PRESENT VALUE AT 3% DISCOUNT RATE Climate + Carbon Costs Highest Action High Action Moderate Action Net Benefit Highest High Moderate No action action action Avoided Mitigation Avoided Mitigation Avoided Mitigation Highest High Moderate Region Action (400 (450 (550 costs* costs costs* costs costs* costs action Action action ppm) ppm) ppm) USA 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% Japan 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Russia 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% China 4.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% India 11.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.5% 6.0% 3.0% 5.5% 2.0% 4.5% 0.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% EU27 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ROW 8.5% 3.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 4.5% 0.5% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5% World*** 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% *Avoided costs: No action (A1B +8.5 ) minus reduced ppm scenario (400 ppm C02e: RCP2.6; 450 ppm: RCP2.9; 550 ppm: SRES B1) ** Discounted (3%) sum of costs and GDP – mitigation costs from Edenhofer et al., 2010 (regional: Remind + Poles) *** Median value of all 5 scenarios (Edenhofer et al., 2010) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 21

ACTION VERSUS INACTION OVER THE 21ST CENTURY 21ST CENTURY COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION, INACTION AND MITIGATION NPV OF GLOBAL CLIMATE/CARBON COSTS AND MITIGATION COSTS RELATIVE TO GDP PERCENTAGE (%) OF NOMINAL GDP NON-DISCOUNTED (NOMINAL 2010-2100, 3% DISCOUNT RATE) 8% 5% 7%

4% 6% 1.8% 5% 3% 1.1% 4%

2% 3% 2.1% 0.4% 2% 1% 1.3% 1%

0 0% ACTION NO ACTION 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 205020602070 2080 2090 2100 MITIGATION COST CARBON COST CLIMATE COST NO ACTION ACTION MITIGATION Action equals 450 ppm (RCP 2.9) No action equals mid-point of 2 non-stabilization scenarios (RCP 8.5 and SRES A1B) shifts occurring in economies around the world. differs little in fundamental terms from the global ultimately, economic advantages of All of these tendencies – most pronounced in analysis: all regions benefit from climate action in aiming for a highest-action scenario, developing countries, in particular the process of economic terms. Most regions find optimal climate this report’s findings imply that industrialization now spreading more and more action in the high-action scenario. The highest the highest action targets would widely15 – can worsen or attenuate vulnerabilities to action to reduce emissions also limits the risks reap the most benefits for the climate change or the carbon economy. of crossing tipping points leading to large-scale world. Therefore, the highest-action In order to understand the fuller implications of this climate disruptions.16 Less ambitious action on scenario is recommended to policy study and to make its findings comparable with climate change does not: moderate action on makers as the preferred target for previous works that take on longer-term perspectives, climate change has a high chance of exceeding the enhancing and safeguarding global the costs of climate change and the carbon economy accepted international temperature goal of holding prosperity. Mainstream economic were also estimated for the period up until 2100. On warming below 2° C (3.6° F) above pre-industrial modelling shows that this transition this basis, business-as-usual development could see levels.17 The most vulnerable countries have called is technologically and economically the costs of inaction exceeding 10% of global GDP in for warming to be limited below 1.5° C above feasible but that action is needed losses prior to 2100. pre-industrial levels as they believe 2° C is far too now to get onto this pathway.5 Reducing emissions results in net benefits for society damaging and a risk to their survival. International cooperation will clearly in every case because the costs of a low-carbon Neither should the risks of catastrophic impacts be be central to ensuring that the costs transition are more than outweighed by averted losses discarded as heresy: new research has highlighted of the transition are maintained at due to climate change and the carbon economy. great risks associated with heat, as opposed to the lowest most efficient level and In the global context, the highest level of emission ocean-related immersion of countries, with heat that the transition yields the highest reductions results in similar global benefits to risks concerning far greater shares of the world co-benefits.6 lower levels of action. However, the highest action economy and its population. In particular, at certain sees fewer negative impacts on society –from levels of high-end warming, large areas of the planet 1 See: Edenhofer et al., 2010; IPCC, 2012a human health to biodiversity and for the world’s would progressively begin to exceed the thermal 2 Weitzman, 2007; Hare in Mastny, 2009 3 For example: Hope, 2006; Stern, 2006 oceans – but requires slightly greater investments maximum at which human beings are able to survive 4 Pope et al., 2010 in low-emission forms of energy. Less ambitious outdoors.18 The possibilities of very rapid climate 5 For an overview of some leading mitigation scenarios, see: Edenhofer et action means accepting larger scales of human and change are not implausible or ruled out by climate al., 2010; UNEP, 2011; IPCC, 2012a ecological impacts. change models, especially as the planet warms 6 For example the economic benefits of cross-border emission reduction The regional analysis of costs and benefits beyond the 2 degrees Celsius temperature threshold cooperation: De Cian and Tavoni, 2010 22 I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

the international community has set for itself.19 Of action on climate change is the savviest choice both 1 Hansen et al., 2005 2 Kjellstrom et al., 2009a; McSweeney particular long-term concern are 1500 gigatonnes of in monetary, humanitarian and environmental terms. et al., 2012 CO (GtCO ) of methane stored in frozen sediments The highest-action approach is the pathway that the 3 ILO LABORSTA, 2012 2 2 4 Storm and Naastepad, 2009; Wacker et al., in the East-Siberian Sea at depths of less than 40 analysis in this report most supports. 2006; Restuccia, et al., 2004; Storm and 20 Naastepad, 2009; McMillan and Rodrik, to 50 metres. This represents three times the The world risks carbon lock-in due to high-intensity 2012 5 amount of CO2 that could be released over much of carbon infrastructure plans still moving forward in Kjellstrom et al., 2009a-b this century if the 2 degrees target is to be kept.21 As the near term, so the shift in focus to a low-carbon 6 UN, 2012 7 Ashdown et al., 2011 the Arctic sea warms due to climate change, these transition should likely occur prior to 2017 and 8 Parry et al., 2009; EACC, 2010 sediments are thawing and methane is already being continue aggressively thereafter.23 Several major 9 Cheung et al., 2010 10 visibly released at rates that currently exceed the economies will need to adjust and enact important Puigdefaabregas, 1998 11 US EIA, 2011 total amount of methane emitted through natural domestic policy and legislative initiatives in order 12 Edenhofer et al., 2010; IPCC, 2012b processes over the entirety of the world’s oceans.22 to make this a reality. Whatever the case, action 13 Chen and Ravallion, 2012 14 World Population Prospects/UN DESA, 2011 While all policy pathways for reducing emissions on climate change that seeks out international 15 OECD, 2012; IMF WEO, 2012; World have similar net benefits in economic terms, the partnership is most likely to further lessen the costs Population Prospects/UN DESA, 2011 16 Pope et al., 2010 highest-action route would clearly reap the greatest of a low-carbon transition and expand the benefits of 17 UNFCCC, 2009 human, societal, economic and environmental this transition for all concerned. This report documents 18 Sherwood and Huber, 2010 benefits, since it would ensure the greatest chances in part the potential benefits of avoided impacts of 19 Wietzman, 2007 20 Shakhova et al., 2008 of avoiding climate-triggered catastrophe and would climate change in addition to the potential co-benefits 21 Meinshausen et al., 2009 minimize the human, social and environmental of emission reductions that are targeted at key 22 Shakhova et al., 2008 and 2010 23 24 IAE, 2011; UNEP, 2011 impacts of a hotter planet. Therefore, the cold economic, health and environmental concerns. 24 De Cian and Tavoni, 2010 calculus of a hot planet implies the most ambitious

CLIMATE+CARBON CLIMATE

2030 54 2030 67 ACUTE ACUTE 2010 21 2010 20

2030 31 2030 21 SEVERE SEVERE 2010 27 2010 38

2030 38 2030 20 HIGH HIGH 2010 59 2010 24

2030 55 2030 31 MODERATE MODERATE 2010 73 2010 44

2030 6 2030 45 LOW LOW 2010 4 2010 58 = 5 countries (rounded) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 23 SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT 2010 2030 LOSSES GAINS NET 2030 NET 2010 2010 2010

DROUGHT 1844**21*41131

FLOODS & LANDSLIDES 941010*261*216653

STORMS 1001515*237*166420*

WILDFIRES **** ******** TOTAL 213 29 29 * 5 14 10 1 40 142 28 4

BIODIVERSITY 389 78 78 * 8 26 36 9 56 299 80 54

DESERTIFICATION 2045***215466

HEATING & COOLING -77 -33 5 -38 1 2 24 -8 30 7 -65 -49

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 2,400 311 314 -3 135 162 16 -1 1,035 1,364 49 -12

PERMAFROST 153 31 31 * 1 10 3 17 5 68 5 75

SEA-LEVEL RISE 526 86 86 * 23 42 15 5 166 310 29 22

CLIMATE WATER 13 14 44 -30 3 -3 13 7 -21 45 39 39 TOTAL 3,461 491 563 -71 166 235 60 30 1,276 1,908 144 135 TOTAL 106 23 23 * 17 5 * 0.5 84 21 * 1

AGRICULTURE 367 50 51 * 27 17 3 2 208 144 8 10

FISHERIES 168 13 16 -3 7 7 1 -1 97 80 -3 -6 FORESTRY 4467-1*4**93411

HYDRO ENERGY -24 -4 * -4 * -3 * * 3 -20 -1 * TOURISM * * 5 -5 2 * -1 * 19 -16 -2 -1

TRANSPORT 711* **1**16* TOTAL 565 66 80 -13 37 25 2 2 329 223 8 5

TOTAL GLOBAL RESULTS 4,345 609 695 -84 225 279 72 33 1,730 2,294 179 144

OIL SANDS 2477***7*21200.5

OIL SPILLS 381313*1660.532492 TOTAL 61 20 20 * 1 6 13 0.5 5 25 29 3

BIODIVERSITY 1,734 291 291 * 32 128 114 17 236 1,034 349 115

CORROSION 5 1.5 1.5 * * 0.5 0.5 * 1 4 0.5 0.5

WATER 1044***31*244 TOTAL 1,749 296 296 * 32 129 117 18 238 1,038 353 120 CARBON

TOTAL 630 172 172 * 74 67 21 10 226 341 37 26

AGRICULTURE -1711517-21294-58-121 4 4

FISHERIES 77 9 9 * 1 7 0.5 * 5 70 2 0.5

FORESTRY 83 28 28 * 3 9 14 1 13 48 18 4 TOTAL -115254-2418245-40-3248

TOTAL GLOBAL RESULTS 2,429 540 542 * 112 220 174 34 429 1,401 444 156

* Less than one billion dollars

Billions of dollars (2010 PPP) Environmental disasters Habitat change Health impact Industry stress non-discounted. Totals do not correspond exactly due to rounding. Developing Country Low Emitters Developing Country High Emitters Developed Other Industrialized 24 I FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS

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NJMMJPO
JODMVEJOH
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NJMMJPO
EFBUIT
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r

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PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF NPOFUBSZ
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r

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PO
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DIBOHF
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r

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DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
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r

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DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
XJMM
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MFTT
PG
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r

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DPTUT
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PG
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r

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DIBOHF
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QPMJDJFT
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DIBOHF
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r

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3. BQQMJFE r

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OPO CLIMATE ACTION IS GOOD VALUE, BUT THE COST OF ADAPTING TO NBSHJOBM
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CLIMATE CHANGE HAS LIKELY BEEN UNDERESTIMATED GVSUIFS
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THE HUMAN TOLL OF INACTION COULD EXCEED 100 MILLION DEATHS PG
UIJT
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BETWEEN NOW AND 2030 ALONE BEBQUBUJPO
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r

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FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONSI 25

DPTUT
PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
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DPVOUSJFT
DPVME
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NJOJNVN
m
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PG
UPEBZT
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PWFS

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BOOVBM
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111
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CLIMATE INACTION COMPROMISES GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT IFSF
XIFSFBT
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AND POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS UJNFT
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CJMMJPO
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111
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r

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r

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CLIMATE INJUSTICE IS EXTREME UIF
JNQBDUT
PG
DMJNBUF
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PG
MPTTFT
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DMJNBUF
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INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE FINANCE: A CLEAR DEFAULT HSPVQ
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FYQFSJFODFT
BQQSPYJNBUFMZ

PG
BMM
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ON COPENHAGEN/CANCUN COMMITMENTS MPTTFT
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BMM
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NPSUBMJUZ r

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PG
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DMJNBUF
DIBOHF r



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26 I FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS

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PG
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EFWFMPQJOH
DPVOUSJFT
CFUXFFO

BOE

BOE

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TMPXJOH
UIF
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PG
DMJNBUF
r

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TPDJBM
BOE
QPMJUJDBM
FDPOPNZ
DPVME
TUSBOE
IBMG
PS
NPSF
PG
BMM
BOE
JNQBDUT
BUUSJCVUBCMF
UP
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
TFDVSJUZ
NJHSBUJPO
BOE
HMPCBM
QSPTQFSJUZ
BSF
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UIFN
BOE
UIF
IJHIFTU
DPCFOFàUT
PG
TVQQPSUFE
BMTP
MJLFMZ
UP
JOEJSFDUMZ
FOEBOHFS
UIF
BMSFBEZ
VONBSLFUBCMF
BOE
QPUFOUJBMMZ
DSFBUJOH
TQBDF
NJUJHBUJPO
BDUJPOT
JO
UFSNT
PG
IVNBO
IFBMUI
TMPX
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QSPTQFDUT
PG
NBOZ
EFWFMPQFE
GPS
SFHVMBUPSZ
BDUJPOT
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DPTUT
BOE
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FOWJSPONFOU DPVOUSJFT
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FGGFDUJWFMZ
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PO
FGGPSUT
BSF
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BO
FWJEFODFCBTFE
MPXDBSCPO
USBOTJUJPO
DPTUJOH UNITE STRENGTHS IN INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIP QSJPSJUJ[BUJPO
UIBU
QMBDFT
WVMOFSBCJMJUZ
VQ
GSPOU
r

"
OFX
JOUFSOBUJPOBM
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JT
DBMMFE
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MPDBM
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JOJUJBUJWFT
PRIORITIZE PARALLEL MEASURES TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE CBTFE
OPU
POMZ
PO
FTTFOUJBM
NVUVBM
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BOE
SFBDI
GPS
UIF
MBTU
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PG
JNQBDU r

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CF
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TUBOE
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CVU
BMTP
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DPNNPO
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UIF
DMJNBUF
DIBMMFOHF
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UIF
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BOE
TIBSFE
FDPOPNJD
FOWJSPONFOUBM
1.2 Deliver fully on Copenhagen/Cancún TZNQUPNT
CVU
OPU
UIF
DBVTF
PG
UIF
DMJNBUF
BOE
TPDJBM
CFOFàUT commitments:
'VMM
EFMJWFSZ
PG
DMJNBUF
àOBODF
DSJTJT
XPVME
SFTVMU
JO
TQFDUBDVMBS
FDPOPNJD
r

5IF
DMJNBUF
DSJTJT
IBT
FNFSHFE
BT
POF
PG
UIF
JT
BO
FTTFOUJBM
DPNQPOFOU
GPS
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GPS
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m
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DIBMMFOHFT
PG
IVNBOLJOE
BNCJUJPVT
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PCKFDUJWFT
5IF
FGGFDUT
PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
DBO
CF
BEBQUFE
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QMBOFU
BU
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BOE
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DPNF
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DPTU
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DMJNBUF
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PG
GSPN
QBSBMMFM
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RECOMMENDATIONS I 29

SFEVDUJPO
QSJPSJUJFT
QFOBMJ[FT
UIF
XPSMET
CVTZ
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2.3 Invest in national risk analysis: QPPSFTU
HSPVQT
BT
NPSF
UIBO
POF
CJMMJPO
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(PBMTu
UIBU
XJMM
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PO
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NPSF
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DMJNBUFSFMBUFE
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5IF
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UP
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
TIPVME
OFWFSUIFMFTT
OPU
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GSPN
UIF
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JOEVTUSJBMJ[FE
OBUJPOT
5IJT
JT
OPU
POMZ
DBOOPU
CF
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PG
UIF
JOUFSOBUJPOBM
JNQPSUBODF
PG
àSTU
FOTVSJOH
TVDDFTT
CZ

EVF
UP
JODPNF
JOFRVBMJUJFT
BOE
QPWFSUZ
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QSPEVDU
PG
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PG
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TJODF
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PG
TFSJPVTMZ
FOEBOHFSFE
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QSFDJTFMZ
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EFWFMPQJOH
DPVOUSJFT
BSF
USPQJDBM
PS
TVC BT
B
SFTVMU
PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
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2.1 Prioritize climate policy with highest USPQJDBM
XIFSF
UIF
JNQMJDBUJPOT
PG
DMJNBUF
QSFWBJMJOH
NBDSPFDPOPNJD
EJGàDVMUJFT
co-benefits:'BDFE
XJUI
MJNJUFE
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DBSCPO
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TIPVME
EFMJCFSBUFMZ
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PG
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B
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GBDUPS
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PO
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GVMM
TFU
PG
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QSPNPUJPO
PG
FGàDJFOU
BOE
DMFBOCVSOJOH
NBDSPFDPOPNJD
QMBOOJOH
BOE
UIF
QVSTVJU
PG
DMJNBUF
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BOE
TVTUBJOBCMF
EFWFMPQNFOU
DPPLJOH
TUPWFT
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BEESFTTFT
JOEPPS
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DPNQFUJUJWFOFTT
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1.3 Rescue the MDGs: 5IF
.JMMFOOJVN
TUPWFT
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MJNJUT
QPUFOU
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FNJTTJPOT
BOE
TQFDJBMJTU
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BOE
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TJHOJàDBOUMZ
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PG
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PG
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DSJTJT
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PG
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4PMJE
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CFGPSF
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DPODMVTJPO
2.2 Pledge strong national action: 4USPOH
BOE
BOBMZTJT
TVQQPSUT
NPSF
BDDVSBUF
BOE
UJNFGSBNF
TVCTUBOUJBM
FNFSHFODZ
SFTPVSDFT
MFBEFSTIJQ
DBO
QBZ
EJWJEFOET
"CPWF
BMM
FGàDJFOU
OBUJPOBM
QPMJDJFT
BOE
TPMJEJàFT
TIPVME
CF
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JOUP
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UP
BDIJFWF
UIF
.%(T
JU
JT
JO
UIF
àSN
JOUFSFTUT
PG
EFWFMPQJOH
TVQQPSU
GPS
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JNQMFNFOUBUJPO
JODMVEJOH
PO
UIF
CBTJT
PG
HPBM
TQFDJàD
HFPHSBQIJD
DPVOUSJFT
UP
DSFBUF
B
EPNFTUJD
FOWJSPONFOU
BNPOH
EFWFMPQNFOU
QBSUOFST BOE
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5IF
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GPS
PG
QSFEJDUBCJMJUZ
BT
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DPNQSPNJTJOH
FGGFDUT
GPS
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PG
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DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
QPMJDJFT
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HIGHLY VULNERABLE COUNTRIES BOE
QSPHSFTT
JO
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SFHJPOT
BT
B
SFTVMU
BNCJUJPVT
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
QPMJDJFT
XJMM
SFBTTVSF
3.1 Prioritize adaptation: $MJNBUF
DIBOHF
JT
PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
VOEFSTDPSFT
UIF
DSJUJDBM
GPSFJHO
JOWFTUPST
UIBU
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SJTLT
BSF
VOEFS
BMSFBEZ
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NBKPS
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PG
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JNQPSUBODF
PG
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DMJNBUF
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DPOUSPM
BOE
UIBU
TUFQT
BSF
CFJOH
UBLFO
UP
PG
FDPOPNJFT
NPTU
WVMOFSBCMF
UP
JUT
FGGFDUT
DPOTJEFSBUJPOT
JOUP
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QSPWJODJBM
BOE
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DPNQFUJUJWFOFTT
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IJHIMZ
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BEBQUBUJPO
FWFO
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8JUI
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DIBOHF
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TBGFHVBSE
GPS
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BO
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BMSFBEZ
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DPOUFNQPSBSZ
QSPHSFTT
BOE
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(SFFO
$MJNBUF
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TFU
UP
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TUSPOH
OBUJPOBM
BDUJPO
QMBOT
"T
UIF
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FYQBOET
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CF
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UIF
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PG
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XJMM
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6/
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6/'$$$ 
LFZ
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PG
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DIBOHF
UP
UIF
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UIF
JOUFSOBUJPOBM
DPNNVOJUZ
JT
OPX
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PG
BO
FDPOPNZ
JO
UIF
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UFSN
FDPOPNJD
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PG
OBUJPOT
XJUI
EJSFDU
30 I RECOMMENDATIONS

àOBODJBM
JNQMJDBUJPOT
GPS
JOWFTUPS
3.3 Strengthen climate governance: BO
BNCJUJPVT
SFTQPOTF
UP
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
DPOàEFODF
BOE
GPSFJHO
JOWFTUNFOU
5IF
EJGGVTF
OBUVSF
PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
XPVME
POMZ
BUUFOVBUF
EFQFOEFODZ
7VMOFSBCMF
DPVOUSJFT
OFFE
UP
MFBSO
GSPN
NFBOT
JUT
WBSJFE
FGGFDUT
DVU
BDSPTT
UIF
PO
DPTUMZ
BOE
JOTFDVSF
JNQPSUFE
GVFM
FBDI
PUIFST
TVDDFTTFT
BOE
SFBTTVSF
JOTUJUVUJPOBM
EJWJTJPOT
PG
QPMJDZ
CPUI
TVQQMJFT
JO
GBWPVS
PG
MPDBMMZ
EFWFMPQFE
FOFSHZ
TPMVUJPOT
TVDI
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UIF
HMPCBM
FDPOPNZ
UIBU
DMJNBUFSFMBUFE
WFSUJDBMMZ
GSPN
OBUJPOBM
UP
QSPWJODJBM
BOE
EJTUSJDU
PS
NVOJDJQBM
MFWFMT
BT
XFMM
BT
FGàDJFODZ
VQHSBEFT
UP
CVJMEJOHT
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UIF
SJTLT
BSF
XFMM
VOEFS
DPOUSPM
3FHJPOBM
IPSJ[POUBMMZ
FODPNQBTTJOH
HPWFSONFOU
64
XBT
BCMF
UP
DVU
JUT
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EFàDJU
JO
IBMG
BOE
MPDBMJ[FE
LOPXMFEHF
UPPMT
TVDI
BT
EFQBSUNFOUT
SBOHJOH
GSPN
FOWJSPONFOU
QVSFMZ
CZ
TIJGUJOH
UP
EPNFTUJD
TPMVUJPOT
GPDVTFE
DMJNBUF
NPEFMT
XBSSBOU
TFSJPVT
BHFODJFT
UP
GPSFJHO
àOBODF
PS
QMBOOJOH
GPS
NFFUJOH
BOE
SFEVDJOH
FOFSHZ
JOWFTUNFOU
JO
PSEFS
UP
JNQSPWF
MPDBMJ[FE
NJOJTUSJFT
SFTPVSDF
NBOBHFNFOU
DJWJM
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UIBU
OPU
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BT
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BHSJDVMUVSF
EPNFTUJD
QSPTQFSJUZ
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UIBO
DVSUBJM
GPSFTUSZ
àTIFSJFT
DPNNFSDF
TDJFODF
JU
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IBMG
PS
NPSF
PG
UIF
XPSMET
FYJTUJOH
3.2 Boost domestic capacity: BOE
FEVDBUJPO
IFBMUI
BOE
TBGFUZ
TUPDLT
PG
IZESPDBSCPOT
TVDI
BT
PJM
$POTJEFSBCMF
JOTUJUVUJPOBM
DPNQFUFODFT
OBUJPOBM
NFUFPSPMPHJDBM
TFSWJDFT
XFSF
SFOEFSFE
PCTPMFUF
NJHIU
OPU
UIFJS
BSF
SFRVJSFE
UP
NBOBHF
DPTUMZ
UP
OBNF
KVTU
B
GFX
*NQMFNFOUJOH
NBSLFU
QSJDF
KVTU
BT
XFMM
QMVNNFU
OPU
BEBQUBUJPO
QSPHSBNNFT
OFDFTTBSZ
UP
NFBOJOHGVM
QPMJDZ
SFRVJSFT
FYUSBPSEJOBSZ
SJTF
*G
DMJNBUF
QPMJDZ
JT
POMZ
BOPUIFS
SVTF
MJNJU
EBNBHFT
BOE
QSPEVDUJWJUZ
MPTTFT
MFWFMT
PG
DPPSEJOBUJPO
BOE
TUFXBSETIJQ
JO
TVQQPSU
PG
iCJHu
FYFDVUJWF
HPWFSONFOU
XIZ
JO
UIF
64
BSF
JOEJWJEVBM
TUBUFT
EVF
UP
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
*G
JOTUJUVUJPOBM
5IF
NPTU
TVDDFTTGVM
FYBNQMFT
TVDI
UBLJOH
UIF
MFHJTMBUJWF
JOJUJBUJWF
BOE
OPU
BSSBOHFNFOUT
BSF
OPU
JO
QMBDF
TFSJPVT
BT
UIF
1IJMJQQJOFT
UISJWF
CFDBVTF
PG
B
EFMJCFSBUF
IJHIMFWFM
DPOTPMJEBUJPO
UIF
DBQJUBM
8IFO
UIF
MPDBM
CVJMEJOH
BOE
PQQPSUVOJUJFT
GPS
QBSUJDJQBUJPO
JO
UIF
PG
OBUJPOBM
SFTQPOTJCJMJUZ
PO
DMJNBUF
BVUPNPCJMF
JOEVTUSJFT
BDUJWFMZ
MPCCZ
JO
HMPCBM
MPXDBSCPO
USBOTJUJPO
NBZ
CF
JTTVFT
JO
MFHJTMBUJWFMZNBOEBUFE
DFOUSBM
GBWPVS
PG
OBUJPOBM
MFHJTMBUJPO
PO
DMJNBUF
GPSFHPOF
+VTU
POF
FYBNQMF
SFMBUFT
UP
BVUIPSJUJFT
CBDLFE
CZ
EJSFDU
FYFDVUJWF
DIBOHF
XIJMF
IZESPDBSCPO
CVTJOFTTFT
UIF
$MFBO
%FWFMPQNFOU
.FDIBOJTN
JOWPMWFNFOU
5IF
TVDDFTT
PG
DPVOUSJFT
XJUI
NPTU
PG
UIFJS
PQFSBUJPOT
PGGTIPSF
EP
$%. 
/BUJPOBM
BVUIPSJUJFT
SFTQPOTJCMF
MJLF
UIF
1IJMJQQJOFT
JO
JNQMFNFOUJOH
UIF
PQQPTJUF
UP
XIBU
FYUFOU
BSF
QPMJDZ
GPS
UIF
SFHJTUSBUJPO
PG
QSPKFDUT
UIBU
FGGFDUJWF
EPNFTUJD
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
PVUDPNFT
CFJOH
EFUFSNJOFE
CZ
WFTUFE
DPVME
FOBCMF
MPDBM
FOWJSPONFOUBMMZ
QPMJDJFT
TIPXT
UIBU
JNQSPWFE
DMJNBUF
JOáVFODFT
BT
PQQPTFE
UP
EPNFTUJD
TPVOE
FOFSHZSFMBUFE
QSPKFDUT
UP
BDDFTT
DIBOHF
HPWFSOBODF
JT
B
NPSF
TJHOJàDBOU
FDPOPNJD
JOUFSFTUT àOBODJBM
SFTPVSDFT
GSPN
JOUFSOBUJPOBM
EFUFSNJOBOU
PG
DMJNBUF
QPMJDZ
TVDDFTT
DBSCPO
NBSLFUT
BSF
TUJMM
BCTFOU
JO
B
UIBO
UIF
MFWFM
PG
OBUJPOBM
EPNFTUJD
4.2 Promote awareness on risks as OVNCFS
PG
IJHIMZ
WVMOFSBCMF
DPVOUSJFT
SFTPVSDFT
DPNNJUUFE
UP
DMJNBUF
QPMJDJFT



opportunities: 3JTLT
BSF
PQQPSUVOJUJFT
$BQBDJUZ
HPFT
CFZPOE
UIF
QVCMJD
4FSJPVT
FOWJSPONFOUBM
BOE
IFBMUI
TFDUPS
UPP
OP
QPJOU
JO
FTUBCMJTIJOH
B
FOR CIVIL SOCIETY AND JNQBDUT
PG
UIF
DBSCPO
FDPOPNZ
XJMM
OBUJPOBM
$%.
BVUIPSJUZ
JO
UIF
BCTFODF
THE PRIVATE SECTOR BCBUF
BT
MPX
DBSCPO
EFWFMPQNFOU
PG
BOZ
MPDBM
FOUSFQSFOFVSJBM
BDUJWJUZ
QSPHSFTTJWFMZ
EPNJOBUFT
FDPOPNJD
BDUJWJUJFT
5IF
TBNF
GPS
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
GPS
EFWFMPQJOH
MPXDBSCPO
QSPKFDUT
JO
COMMUNICATORS AND THE MEDIA UIF
àSTU
QMBDF
.PSFPWFS
NBLJOH
UIF
JNQBDUT
*O
BMNPTU
FWFSZ
DBTF
UBLJOH
4.1 Question received wisdom: *U
IBT
NFBTVSFT
UP
MJNJU
EBNBHFT
EVF
UP
UIF
NPTU
PG
WJCSBOU
DJWJM
TPDJFUZ
JOUFSFTU
PO
PGUFO
CFFO
BSHVFE
UIBU
HSFFO
QPMJDJFT
XBSNJOH
UIF
XPSME
JT
BMSFBEZ
DPNNJUUFE
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
XJMM
POMZ
BEE
WBMVF
BOE
iDVSC
FDPOPNJD
HSPXUIu
iJODSFBTF
UP
XJMM
JNQSPWF
DPNQFUJUJWFOFTT
BOE
MFHJUJNBDZ
UP
UIF
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
QPMJDZ
HBTPMJOF
QSJDFTu
PS
iEFTUSPZ
KPCTu
5BYFT
NJOJNJ[F
BOZ
MPTTFT
5IF
.POJUPS
EFWFMPQNFOU
QSPDFTT
BOE
JT
B
WBMVBCMF
PO
DBSCPO
EP
JODSFBTF
DFSUBJO
DPTUT
FNQIBTJ[FT
UIBU
JU
JT
OP
MPOHFS
DSFEJCMF
BTTFU
UP
HPWFSONFOUT
UIBU
TIPVME
CF
OBNFMZ
CZ
QVUUJOH
NPSF
PG
UIF
CVSEFO
UIBU
NJUJHBUJPO
PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
XJMM
DVMUJWBUFE
BOE
TUSPOHMZ
QSPNPUFE

PG
UIF
OFHBUJWF
FGGFDUT
PG
QPMMVUJPO
CBDL
MFBE
UP
SFEVDFE
FDPOPNJD
HSPXUI
POUP
JUT
TPVSDFT
'PS
NPTU
FDPOPNJFT
*OEFFE
UIF
CFOFàUT
PG
SFEVDJOH
UIF
RECOMMENDATIONS I 31

DBSCPO
JOUFOTJUZ
PG
HSPXUI
GBS
PVUXFJHI
INVESTORS JOUFOTJWF
GVFMT
UIF
MFBEJOH
HMPCBM
BOZ
TNBMM
BOE
BSUJàDJBM
QSFNJVN
JO
5.1 Perform comprehensive risk FOFSHZ
DPSQPSBUJPOT
PG
UPEBZ
BSF
TUJMM
QSPàU
NBSHJOT
BTTPDJBUFE
XJUI
DBSCPO analysis: $PSQPSBUJPOT
SFMJBOU
PO
UIF
CFTU
FRVJQQFE
UP
TFSWJDF
UIF
XPSMET
CBTFE
EFWFMPQNFOU
TUSBUFHJFT
5IF
CVTJOFTT
NPEFMT
CBTFE
PO
DBSCPO
FOFSHZ
SFRVJSFNFOUT
PG
B
MPXDBSCPO
EJWJEFOE
PG
NJUJHBUJPO
GVSUIFSNPSF
JT
BTTFUT
TVDI
BT
SFTFSWFT
PG
PJM
BSF
FDPOPNZ
/PU
QSFQBSJOH
UIF
HSPVOE
NPTU
QSPOPVODFE
JO
GBTUHSPXJOH
OFXMZ
UBLJOH
B
EBJMZ
HBNCMF
UIBU
B
MPXDBSCPO
GPS
B
QPUFOUJBM
MPXDBSCPO
USBOTJUJPO
JOEVTUSJBMJ[FE
EFWFMPQJOH
DPVOUSJFT
FDPOPNZ
XJMM
OFWFS
QSFWBJM
BOE
UIPTF
POMZ
CVJMET
VQ
SJTLT
UIBU
OFFE
OPU
FYJTU
BTTFUT
XJMM
OFWFS
CF
TUSBOEFE
VOBCMF
$PBM
CVTJOFTTFT
GPS
JOTUBODF
XJUI
4.3 Take a stand: 5JNF
JT
SVOOJOH
UP
SFBDI
NBSLFUT
EVF
UP
SFHVMBUJPO
TUSPOH
JOWFTUNFOUT
JO
DBSCPO
DBQUVSF
PVU
BOE
UIF
TUBLFT
BSF
USFNFOEPVT
$FSUBJOMZ
UIF
TUSVDUVSBM
GFBUVSFT
PG
UIF
BOE
TUPSBHF
$$4
BOE
FNQMPZFF
BOE
JG
OPU
JODBMDVMBCMF
*G
B
MPXDBSCPO
HMPCBM
FDPOPNZ
BOE
FWFSZ
NBJOTUSFBN
FOWJSPONFOUBM
TBGFUZ
SFTFBSDI
BOE
USBOTJUJPO
JT
OPU
FOHJOFFSFE
XJUIJO
UIF
FOFSHZ
PVUMPPL
BOBMZTJT
CBDL
UIF
EFWFMPQNFOU
XPVME
NPTU
MJLFMZ
CFOFàU
EFDBEF
UIF
DPOTFRVFODFT
XJMM
CF
EJSF
OBSSBUJWF
PG
UIF
MPXDBSCPO
FDPOPNZ
GSPN
B
MPXDBSCPO
USBOTJUJPO
SBUIFS
UIBO
SFHBSEMFTT
PG
UIF
VMUJNBUF
NBHOJUVEF
BT
B
QJQF
ESFBN
#VU
POMZ
B
WFSZ
OBSSPX
TVGGFS



TJODF
UIFZ
JOWPMWF
JSSFWFSTJCMF
EBNBHF
XJOEPX
PG
MFHJTMBUJWF
BDUJPO
JO
GBWPVS
UIF
FYUJODUJPO
PG
XIPMF
TQFDJFT
PG
B
àSN
SFTQPOTF
UP
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
5.3 Foster transition stability:
BOE
UIPVTBOET
VQPO
UIPVTBOET
PG
XPVME
TUSBOE
IBMG
PS
NPSF
PG
UIF
XPSMET
-FHJTMBUJWF
TUFQT
UIBU
FOUBJM
JSSFWFSTJCMF
IVNBO
MJWFT
MPTU
*O
XPSTU
DBTFT
OPU
FYJTUJOH
TUPDLQJMFT
PG
DBSCPOCBTFE
DIBOHF
UP
UIF
MBOETDBQF
PG
UIF
XPSMET
TPMWJOH
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
DPVME
SFOEFS
GVFMT
BT
VONBSLFUBCMF
5P
XIBU
FYUFOU
FOFSHZ
JOEVTUSZ
BSF
B
TZTUFNJD
SJTL
MBSHF
BSFBT
PG
UIF
QMBOFU
VOTVJUBCMF
BSF
JOWFTUNFOU
QPSUGPMJPT
FYQPTFE
FNCFEEFE
JO
HMPCBM
NBSLFUT
KVTU
GPS
IVNBO
FYJTUFODF
PVUEPPST
5IF
PS
OPU
UP
UIBU
QPTTJCMZ
NBSHJOBM
CVU
MJLF
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
JT
BMSFBEZ
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JOKVTUJDFT
FOWJSPONFOUBM
JSSFTQPOTJCJMJUZ
QIFOPNFOBM
SJTL
"SF
UIPTF
SJTLT
XPSUI
JOFTDBQBCMF
BOE
HSPXJOH
EFUFSNJOBOU
BOE
JOIVNBOJUZ
JOWPMWFE
BSF
TJNQMZ
CFBSJOH
)PX
NJHIU
UIFZ
CF
NJOJNJ[FE PG
NBSLFU
QSPTQFSJUZ
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5IF
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"
OFBSMZ
VOQBSBMMFMFE
CPEZ
TFDUPS
DPOTUJUVUFT
UIF
QSJNBSZ
PS
BU
PG
TDJFOUJàD
BOE
PCTFSWBUJPOBM
FWJEFODF
5.2 Encourage diversification MFBTU
B
NBKPS
TIBSF
PG
WJSUVBMMZ
FWFSZ
OPX
BNBTTFE
BOE
QMBJO
GPS
BMM
UP
TFF
strategies: )ZESPDBSCPO
DPNQBOJFT
NBKPS
TUPDL
FYDIBOHF
"CSVQU
QPMJDZ
XJUI
UIF
TUFBEZ
EJTBQQFBSBODF
PG
"SDUJD
TIPVME
CF
DBQBCMF
PG
QSFTFOUJOH
BDUJPO
UIBU
SFTVMUT
JO
B
TUSBOEJOH
PG
B
TFB
JDF
BOE
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5IF
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DPNQSFIFOTJWF
EJWFSTJàDBUJPO
TUSBUFHJFT
NBKPSJUZ
PG
DBSCPO
BTTFUT
DPVME
DBVTF
XFBUIFSSFMBUFE
BEKVTUNFOUT
BOE
JOUP
MPXDBSCPO
BMUFSOBUJWFT
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OP
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DIBOHFT
BSF
FYUSFNFT
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UIF
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EJWFSTJàDBUJPO
TUSBUFHJFT
WFSZ
TQFDJàDBMMZ
B
DPOUJOHFOU
OFDFTTJUZ
EJGàDVMU
UP
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%FTQJUF
UIF
DPNQMFYJUZ
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CFFO
EFWFMPQFE
JU
JT
DMFBS
UIBU
UP
UIF
DPOTUSBJOJOH
PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
PG
UIF
UPQJD
JHOPSBODF
JT
OP
FYDVTF
GPS
DPSQPSBUF
MFBEFSTIJQ
BSF
DBSSZJOH
XIJDI
JO
TQJUF
PG
DVSSFOU
CVTJOFTT
JOBDUJPO
BOE
JOEJGGFSFODF
DBO
CF
UJFE
UP
JOWFTUPS
SFTPVSDFT
BMPOH
B
SJTLZ
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JT
OFWFSUIFMFTT
B
XJEFMZ
SBUJàFE
DPNQMJDJUZ
8JUI
UIJT
SFQPSU
UIFSF
JT
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QPMJUJDBM
HBNCMF
%FUBJMFE
FDPOPNJD
JOUFSOBUJPOBM
QSJPSJUZ
*O
B
HMPCBMJ[FE
B
DPNQSFIFOTJWF
DVSSFOUEBZ
FDPOPNJD
NPEFMMJOH
CZ
NBKPS
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FDPOPNZ
JU
JT
B
TPWFSFJHO
SFHVMBUPSZ
KVTUJàDBUJPO
GPS
BDUJPO
JO
BEEJUJPO
UP
IBT
EFNPOTUSBUFE
UIBU
B
EJWFSTJàFE
DPODFSO
GPS
BOZ
QBSUZ
UP
UIF
6/'$$$
UIF
IVNBO
FUIJDBM
FOWJSPONFOUBM
BOE
QPSUGPMJP
TIPVME
SFBQ
NPSF
CFOFàUT
GPS
&RVJUZ
NBSLFU
SFHVMBUPST
BDSPTT
UIF

SJHIUTCBTFE
BSHVNFOUT
BMSFBEZ
JO
JOWFTUPST
JO
UIF
DBTF
PG
B
MPXDBSCPO
QBSUJFT
JOWPMWFE
TIPVME
CF
NPOJUPSJOH
XJEF
DJSDVMBUJPO
$JWJM
TPDJFUZ
HSPVQT
USBOTJUJPO
UIBO
VOEFS
CVTJOFTTBTVTVBM
BOE
QVCMJDMZ
SFQPSUJOH
PO
UIF
FYUFOU
DPNNVOJDBUPST
BOE
QFPQMF
PG
BMM
LJOET
JO
DPOEJUJPOT
'FX
DPNQBOJFT
JO
UIF
UP
XIJDI
TZTUFNJD
DBSCPOMJOLFE
SJTLT
QPTJUJPOT
PG
QVCMJD
JOáVFODF
PS
BVUIPSJUZ
FOFSHZ
TFDUPS
SJWBM
UIF
PNOJQPUFODF
PG
NJHIU
KFPQBSEJ[F
OBUJPOBM
BOE
HMPCBM
XJUIJO
UIFJS
DPNNVOJUJFT
XIFUIFS
IZESPDBSCPO
CVTJOFTTFT
NBJOMZ
TUBUF QSPTQFSJUZ
5IJT
XPVME
FOIBODF
JOWFTUPS
JO
GBJUICBTFE
HSPVQT
NVOJDJQBM
PS
PXOFE
BT
UIFZ
BSF
5IFSFGPSF
XIFUIFS
WJTJCJMJUZ
UP
UIF
SJTL
QSPàMFT
PG
FOUJSF
FEVDBUJPOBM
FTUBCMJTINFOUT
TIPVME
àOE
PS
OPU
UIF
GVUVSF
FOFSHZ
SFRVJSFNFOUT
PG
JOEFYFT
BOE
FODPVSBHF
CFUUFS
DBSCPO
OP
GVSUIFS
PCTUBDMFT
UP
UBLJOH
B
TUBOE
JO
UIF
QMBOFU
BSF
NFU
UISPVHI
SFOFXBCMF
SJTL
NBOBHFNFOU
3FHBSEMFTT
PG
UIF
UBDLMJOH
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF TPVSDFT
PS
WJB
QPJOUTVQQMJFE
DBSCPO
NPUJWBUJPOT
SFHVMBUPST
VOXJMMJOH
UP
32 I RECOMMENDATIONS

QVCMJDJ[F
SFMFWBOU
JOGPSNBUJPO
PO
6.2 Expand global analysis: (MPCBM
JT
UP
EJTQMBDF
DPODFSO
FOUBJMJOH
TVDI
IB[BSET
NJHIU
CF
TVTQFDUFE
PG
FTUJNBUFT
BOE
NPEFMT
PG
UIF
JNQBDU
QPUFOUJBMMZ
EFBEMZ
BOE
FDPOPNJDBMMZ
QVSQPTFMZ
DPODFBMJOH
JOPSEJOBUF
SJTLT
PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
BSF
TP
DPNQMFY
EFCJMJUBUJOH
SBNJàDBUJPOT
JG
QPMJDZ
XIJDI
NBZ
POMZ
DPNQPVOE
FYDIBOHF BOE
TVCKFDU
UP
TVDI
B
XJEF
BSSBZ
NBLFST
GBJM
UP
BDU
PO
SJTLT
8IJMF
NBOZ
TQFDJàD
SJTLT
BOE
DPNQSPNJTF
JOWFTUPS
PG
BTTVNQUJPOT
BOE
QSPYJFT
CZ
UIF
SJTLT
DBOOPU
CF
BGàSNFE
BT
TUFNNJOH
DPOàEFODF
IFSF FYQFSUT
PS
SFTFBSDI
UFBNT
JOWPMWFE
GSPN
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
XJUI
B
IJHI
EFHSFF
JO
UIFJS
EFWFMPQNFOU
BT
UP
CF
BMNPTU
PG
DPOàEFODF
OFJUIFS
DBO
UIFJS
DBVTBM
RESEARCH COMMUNITY JSSFQSPEVDJCMF
CZ
UIJSE
QBSUJFT
FWFO
BTTPDJBUJPO
UP
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
CF
6.1 Encourage attribution research: XIFO
GVMM
USBOTQBSFODZ
JT
QSPWJEFE
PO
EJTDPVOUFE
XJUI
BOZ
CFUUFS
EFHSFF
PG
*NQFSGFDU
EBUB
TFUT
DPOGPVOEJOH
UIF
NFUIPEPMPHJDBM
TUFQT
JOWPMWFE
DPOàEFODF
'VUVSF
SFGFSFODF
SFQPSUT
QBSBMMFM
FGGFDUT
CBTJD
FNQJSJDBM
"OE
ZFU
VOEFSTUBOEJOH
UIF
DPTUT
BOE
TIPVME
BJN
UP
IJHIMJHIU
àSTU
UIF
SBOHF
PG
MJNJUBUJPOT
BOE
PUIFSXJTF
UIXBSU
UIF
CFOFàUT
JOWPMWFE
JO
BEESFTTJOH
BOZ
SJTLT
UIFO
UIF
MFWFMT
PG
DPOàEFODF
BOE
JEFOUJàDBUJPO
PG
DMJNBUF
DIBOHFT
SPMF
TFSJPVT
QPMJDZ
DPODFSO
JT
PSEJOBSJMZ
VODFSUBJOUZ
BTTPDJBUFE
XJUI
UIFN
BOE
PS
MBDL
UIFSFPG
JO
BOZ
TPDJPFDPOPNJD
BO
VOBWPJEBCMF
JNQFSBUJWF
$MJNBUF
OPU
UIF
PUIFS
XBZ
BSPVOE
*U
JT
TBGFS
UP
PS
FOWJSPONFOUBM
QIFOPNFOB
:FU
DIBOHF
QSPQPTFT
OPOFUIFMFTT
QFSIBQT
SJTL
CFJOH
PWFS
QSFQBSFE
UIBO
VOEFS

UIF
FYFSDJTF
JT
IJHIMZ
SFMFWBOU
BOE
UIF
NPTU
BNCJUJPVT
QPMJDZ
BHFOEB
TJHOJàDBOU
)VOESFET
PG
CJMMJPOT
PG
UIF
NPEFSO
XPSME
IBT
IBE
UP
EFDJEF
EPMMBST
PG
UBYQBZFS
SFTPVSDFT
WJSUVBMMZ
PO
5IF
EFBSUI
PG
SFDFOU
BOBMZTJT
PO
FOR THE INTERNATIONAL FWFSZXIFSF
BSF
BMSFBEZ
CFJOH
EJWFSUFE
UIF
RVFTUJPO
IBT
OP
EPVCU
MFTTFOFE
DEVELOPMENT AND FBDI
ZFBS
DPOTDJPVTMZ
PS
OPU
UP
DPOàEFODF
JO
HMPCBM
QPMJDJFT
DBQBCMF
HUMANITARIAN COMMUNITY BEESFTT
UIF
TQSBXMJOH
SFQFSDVTTJPOT
PG
FOBCMJOH
B
NBKPS
NBDSPFDPOPNJD
PG
B
IPUUFS
QMBOFU
,OPXJOH
XIFSF
SFTUSVDUVSJOH
DSVDJBM
UP
UIF
JOJUJBUJPO
PG
DEVELOPMENT ACTORS UIFTF
SFTPVSDFT
TIPVME
PS
TIPVME
B
MPXDBSCPO
USBOTJUJPO
5IF
.POJUPST
OPU
CF
EFQMPZFE
JT
PG
QSJNF
DPODFSO
SFBTTFTTNFOU
PG
UIF
DPTUT
PG
DMJNBUF
7.1 Focus on economic development, +VTU
POF
FYBNQMF
TFSWFT
UP
JMMVTUSBUF
DIBOHF
XPVME
CFTU
CF
KVEHFE
UISPVHI
education and environmental XIZ
*G
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
JT
BTTVNFE
DPNQBSJTPO
XJUI
PUIFS
TJNJMBSMZ
governance: "OZ
TUSBUFHZ
UIBU
CPPTUT
TPMFMZ
SFTQPOTJCMF
GPS
MPDBMJ[FE
VQEBUFE
TUVEJFT
8IFSF
GVUVSF
TUVEJFT
FDPOPNJD
BOE
IVNBO
EFWFMPQNFOU
XJMM
DPBTUBM
EFHSBEBUJPO
JO
B
SJWFS
EFMUB
JODMVEF
BMTP
DBSCPO
FDPOPNZ
TJEF
BMNPTU
DFSUBJOMZ
BMTP
SFEVDF
DMJNBUF
EVF
UP
B
TVCKFDUJWF
SJTF
JO
TFB
MFWFMT
FGGFDUT
TVDI
BT
DBSCPO
GFSUJMJ[BUJPO
WVMOFSBCJMJUZ
CZ
TPNF
EFHSFF
5IJT
JT
B
DPODSFUF
XBMM
BMPOH
UIF
GPSFTIPSF
UIFZ
TIPVME
BMTP
JODMVEF
UIF
GVMM
SBOHF
IJHIMJHIUFE
CZ
UIF
WFSZ
MPX
MFWFMT
PG
NJHIU
DPODFJWBCMZ
CF
CVJMU
)PXFWFS
PG
DBSCPO
FDPOPNZ
TJEF
FGGFDUT
DMJNBUF
JNQBDUT
BTTFTTFE
GPS
UIF
GFX
FRVBM
PS
HSFBUFS
CMBNF
NBZ
XFMM
JODMVEJOH
P[POF
UPYJDJUZ
BDJE
SBJO
IJHIJODPNF
USPQJDBM
DPVOUSJFT
UIBU
CF
BUUSJCVUBCMF
UP
VQTUSFBN
EBNT
QPMMVUJPO
JTTVFT
SFMBUJOH
UP
IFBMUI
BOE
TIBSF
FOWJSPONFOUBM
WVMOFSBCJMJUJFT
IZESP
TUBUJPOT
JSSJHBUJPO
PS
MPDBMJ[FE
PUIFS
SFMFWBOU
JNQBDUT
TVDI
BT
UIPTF
XJUI
MPXFSJODPNF
OFJHICPVST
TVDI
HSPVOEXBUFS
QVNQJOH
UIBU
XPVME
BTTFTTFE
CZ
UIF
.POJUPS BT
#SVOFJ
4BVEJ
"SBCJB
PS
4JOHBQPSF
DPOUJOVF
UP
DBVTF
MBOE
UP
TJOL
GVSUIFS
&EVDBUJPO
JT
BMTP
DSJUJDBM
TP
UIBU
CFIJOE
B
QSPIJCJUJWFMZ
FYQFOTJWF
6.3 Avoid misrepresentation of risks: DPNNVOJUJFT
FYQFSJFODJOH
B
HSPXUI
PG
JOGSBTUSVDUVSFIFBWZ
DPBTUBM
GPSUSFTT
5IF
MFWFM
PG
DPOàEFODF
BOE
BHSFFNFOU
JODPNF
BSF
FRVBMMZ
FRVJQQFE
XJUI
IJHI
BJNFE
BU
DPOUBJOJOH
TFBMFWFM
SJTF
BNPOH
BDBEFNJD
TQFDJBMJTUT
BOE
UIFJS
EFHSFFT
PG
BXBSFOFTT
PG
UIF
SJTLT
GBDFE
'VSUIFSNPSF
DPBTUBM
EFGFODFT
JO
POF
NPEFMT
JT
MFTT
JNQPSUBOU
GPS
WVMOFSBCMF
BOE
UIF
NFBOT
BWBJMBCMF
UP
NJUJHBUF
BSFB
PGUFO
BDDFMFSBUF
EFHSBEBUJPO
JO
DPNNVOJUJFT
UIBO
UIF
QPUFOUJBM
SJTLT
UIFTF
&EVDBUJOH
DIJMESFO
FTQFDJBMMZ
BEKBDFOU
DPBTUBM
[POFT
CZ
JOIJCJUJOH
JNQMJFE
CZ
TDJFODF
6OEFSTUBUJOH
SJTLT
HJSMT
NBZ
CF
UIF
NPTU
DPTUFGGFDUJWF
UIF
OBUVSBM
EJTTJQBUJPO
RVBMJUJFT
PG
UJEBM
CZ
TUSFTTJOH
JOTUFBE
UIF
VODFSUBJOUJFT
NFUIPE
UP
TQSFBE
BXBSFOFTT
TJODF
FOFSHZ
TQSFBEJOH
JOBEWFSUFOU
MPTTFT
BTTPDJBUFE
XJUI
BUUSJCVUJPOBM
UIF
TDIPPM
TZTUFN
BT
XFMM
BT
JOGPSNBM
GVSUIFS
TUJMM BTTPDJBUJPO
UP
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
JT
FEVDBUJPOBM
BWFOVFT
JT
B
TVTUBJOBCMF
JSSFTQPOTJCMF
CFDBVTF
UIF
JNQMJDBUJPO
DPOEVJU
UP
JOWFTU
JO
BOE
DIJMESFO
BSF
RECOMMENDATIONS I 33

NPSF
MJLFMZ
UP
GVSUIFS
QBTT
PO
UIFJS
UP
CPPTU
QSPEVDUJWJUZ
TP
UIBU
NPSF
DBO
PG
WBMVBCMF
FOWJSPONFOUBM
BTTFUT
JO
LOPXMFEHF
UP
PUIFS
HSPVQT
OBNFMZ
CF
BDIJFWFE
XJUI
UIF
TBNF
SFTPVSDFT
BO
JOUFHSBUFE
BOE
TFMGTVTUBJOJOH
XBZ
BEVMUT
&OWJSPONFOUBM
HPWFSOBODF
JT
BWBJMBCMF
&YQBOEJOH
NBSLFU
BDDFTT
GPS
*OUFSOBUJPOBM
QPMJDZ
NBLFST
TIPVME
FRVBMMZ
LFZ
TJODF
UIF
VOTVTUBJOBCMF
UIF
SBX
PS
àOJTIFE
HPPET
QSPEVDFE
CZ
QSJPSJUJ[F
IJHI
DPCFOFàU
JOJUJBUJWFT
FYQMPJUBUJPO
PG
OBUVSBM
SFTPVSDFT
UIJT
HSPVQ
JT
BOPUIFS
PQUJPO
PG
HSPXJOH
BOE
JOUFHSBUFE
QSPHSBNNFT
UIBU
BCPWF
BMM
àTIFSJFT
GPSFTUT
BOE
XBUFS
JOUFSFTU
BT
UIF
XPSMET
NBSLFUT
DPOUJOVF
EFBM
TJNVMUBOFPVTMZ
XJUI
NVMUJQMF
NJHIU
PDDVS
SFHBSEMFTT
PG
UIF
MFWFM
UP
HMPCBMJ[F
1SPWJEJOH
àOBODJBM
TUJNVMVT
JTTVFT
JO
PSEFS
UP
NBYJNJ[F
UIF
TDBSDF
PG
FEVDBUJPO
BOE
NBZ
FWFO
JOUFOTJGZ
BOE
USBJOJOH
UP
MPDBM
FOUSFQSFOFVST
SFTPVSDFT
BWBJMBCMF
GPS
UBDLMJOH
DMJNBUF
BT
JODPNFT
SJTF
#VU
FOWJSPONFOUBM
PS
DPPQFSBUJWFT
UP
FTUBCMJTI
MJHIU
WVMOFSBCJMJUZ
XIJMF
NBLJOH
UIF
NPTU
HPWFSOBODF
TIPVME
MPPL
CFZPOE
TJNQMF
BHSPàTIFSZ
JOEVTUSJFT
DBQBCMF
PG
PVU
PG
UIF
USBOTJUJPO
UP
B
MPXDBSCPO
QSPUFDUJPO
UPXBSET
BDUVBMMZ
FOIBODJOH
QBDLBHJOH
UIFTF
HPPET
GPS
BENJTTJPO
FDPOPNZ
JO
UFSNT
PG
TVTUBJOBCMF
IVNBO
UIF
QVCMJD
HPPET
OBUVSBM
SFTPVSDFT
UP
HMPCBM
TVQQMZ
DIBJOT
XPVME
BMMPX
EFWFMPQNFOU
BU
B
HMPCBM
MFWFM
8JUI
GBS
IBWF
UP
PGGFS
5IJT
NJHIU
JODMVEF
UIF
MPDBM
QSPEVDFST
UP
BQQSPQSJBUF
B
HSFBUFS
GFXFS
SFTPVSDFT
BWBJMBCMF
GPS
BEBQUJOH
DPOTUSVDUJPO
PG
EBNT
UP
USBQ
XBUFS
TIBSF
PG
UIF
WBMVF
DIBJO
BOE
NBYJNJ[F
UP
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
QSJPSJUJ[JOH
NJUJHBUJPO
GSPN
IFBWZ
EPXOQPVST
GPS
JSSJHBUJPO
UIF
DPNNFSDJBM
WBMVF
PG
UIFJS
HPPET QSPKFDUT
UIBU
BMTP
CPPTU
MPDBM
BEBQUJWF
EVSJOH
ESJFS
TQFMMT
PS
UIF
FYQBOTJPO

DBQBDJUZ
PS
EJSFDUMZ
SFTVMU
JO
BEBQUBUJPO
PG
OBUVSBM
SFTFSWFT
PS
XFUMBOET
GPS
7.3 Integrate climate strategies to EJWJEFOET
DPVME
EPVCMF
PS
NPSF
UIF
QPMMJOBUJPO
XBTUF
XBUFS
USFBUNFOU
PS
revitalize development: "DDFTT
UP
QPTTJCMF
FYUFOU
PG
BEBQUBUJPO
FGGPSUT
"T
XJOE
QSPUFDUJPO DBSCPO
NBSLFUT
WJB
UIF
SFGPSNFE
$%.
BO
FYBNQMF
SFUSPàUUJOH
CVJMEJOHT
XJUI
XIJDI
BMMPXT
UIF
QPPMJOH
PG
NJDSPMFWFM
UIFSNBM
JOTVMBUJPO
XPVME
SFEVDF
DPPMJOH
BDUJWJUJFT
JOUP
POF
MBSHFS
BOE
UIFSFGPSF
FOFSHZ
MPBET
BOE
UIFSFGPSF
FNJTTJPOT
7.2 Raise the disposable income DPMMFDUJWFMZ
àOBODFBCMF
QSPKFDU
BOE
UIF
CVU
BMTP
TBGFHVBSE
IFBMUI
BOE
MBCPVS
of farmers and fishermen: 4VQQPSU
QPTTJCJMJUZ
PG
B
HMPCBM
DBSCPO
NBSLFU
QSPEVDUJWJUZ
GSPN
SJTJOH
UFNQFSBUVSFT OBUJPOBM
FGGPSUT
UP
FTUBCMJTI
BQQSPQSJBUF
GPS
GPSFTUT
SFQSFTFOU
OFX
TPVSDFT
PG
OBUJPOBM
HPWFSONFOU
QPMJDJFT
BOE
MPOHUFSN
JODPNF
TUSFBNT
UIBU
DPVME
THE HUMANITARIAN SYSTEM JOWFTUNFOUT
UIBU
ZJFME
GPS
UIF
MPXFTU
FOBCMF
B
IPTU
PG
GSFTI
TVTUBJOBCMF
8.1 Brace for change: $IBOHF
JT
JODPNF
HSPVQT
5IF
HSPVQT
NPTU
EFWFMPQNFOU
JOJUJBUJWFT
UP
UBLF
IPME
BMSFBEZ
VOEFSXBZ
5IBU
DIBOHF
JT
BMTP
DPOTJTUFOUMZ
BOE
IFBWJMZ
FYQPTFE
UP
JO
EFWFMPQJOH
DPVOUSJFT
4JNQMF
MBSHF TJHOJàDBOU
BT
IFBU
SJTFT
QBSUT
PG
UIF
DMJNBUFSFMBUFE
JNQBDUT
BSF
TNBMMTDBMF
TDBMF
FOFSHZ
QSPKFDUT
MJLF
IZESP
EBNT
XPSME
XJMM
FYQFSJFODF
DMJNBUFT
XJUI
PS
TVCTJTUFODF
GBSNFST
BOE
àTIFSNFO
PS
FYUFOTJWF
DPODSFUF
TFB
EFGFODFT
OP
BOBMPHVF
JO
IVNBO
IJTUPSZ
*U
JT
BOE
FTQFDJBMMZ
UIFJS
DIJMESFO
5IF
NBZ
CF
BUUSBDUJWF
DMJNBUFSFMBUFE
TUJMM
FYUSFNFMZ
EJGàDVMU
UP
DPOàEFOUMZ
HSFBUFTU
DIBMMFOHF
GBDFE
CZ
UIF
MPXFTU
JOJUJBUJWFT
GPS
BENJOJTUSBUJWF
PS
PUIFS
BUUSJCVUF
B
TQFDJàD
FYUSFNF
XFBUIFS
JODPNF
CSBDLFU
PG
UIFTF
HSPVQT
JT
UP
SFBTPOT
CVU
FOFSHZFGàDJFOU
DPPLJOH
FWFOU
JO
QBSU
PS
FOUJSFMZ
UP
DMJNBUF
SFWFSTF
UIF
WJDJPVT
DZDMF
PG
EFDMJOF
UIBU
TUPWFT
BOE
NBOHSPWF
QMBOUBUJPOT
DIBOHF
FTQFDJBMMZ
OPU
DMPTF
UP
UIF
DMJNBUFSFMBUFE
SJTLT
BSF
DPOTUBOUMZ
XPVME
MJLFMZ
BDDPNQMJTI
UIF
TBNF
UJNF
PG
JUT
PDDVSSFODF
$FSUBJO
UZQFT
PG
GFFEJOH
*O
PSEFS
UP
CSFBL
PVU
PG
PCKFDUJWFT
m
SFEVDF
FNJTTJPOT
QSPUFDU
FWFOUT
TVDI
BT
FYUSFNF
IFBU
MFBEJOH
UP
EFDMJOF
GBSNFST
BOE
àTIFSNFO
OFFE
UP
BHBJOTU
DPBTUBM
EFHSBEBUJPO
m
CVU
CSJOH
ESPVHIU
PS
áPPEJOH
USJHHFSFE
CZ
IFBWZ
FYQBOE
UIFJS
JODPNFT
BOE
QSPàUBCJMJUZ
NVDI
IJHIFS
DPCFOFàUT
m
GPS
IFBMUI
SBJOT
OFWFSUIFMFTT
DBSSZ
UIF
DMBTTJD
*G
OPU
FWFO
UIF
NPTU
DPTUFGGFDUJWF
CJPEJWFSTJUZ
GPSFTUT
DBSCPO
TJOLT
PS
IBMMNBSLT
PG
EJTBTUFST
TVTQFDUFE
UP
PG
PQQPSUVOJUJFT
UP
QSPUFDU
BHBJOTU
XJOE
QSPUFDUJPO
UP
OBNF
KVTU
TPNF
IBWF
CFFO
DBVTFE
PS
BHHSBWBUFE
CZ
EBNBHFT
NBZ
SFNBJO
PVU
PG
SFBDI
PO
LFZ
BEWBOUBHFT
4FWFSBM
TVDDFTTFT
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
0O
UIF
CBTJT
PG
UIF
QVSFMZ
àOBODJBM
HSPVOET
TVDI
BT
IJHIFS
JO
QBZNFOU
GPS
FDPTZTUFN
TFSWJDFT
DMBTTJDBM
MBXT
PG
QIZTJDT
NPSFPWFS
RVBMJUZ
TFFET
DMFBO
CVSOJOH
TUPWFT
TZTUFNT
$PTUB
3JDBT
TDIFNF
CFJOH
B
JU
JT
OFBSMZ
JNQPTTJCMF
UIBU
GPS
JSSJHBUJPO
FRVJQNFOU
PS
DSPQ
JOTVSBODF
QSJNF
FYBNQMF
BMTP
QSPWJEF
UFNQMBUFT
FYBNQMF
NPSF
BCVOEBOU
GSFRVFOU
BOE
&EVDBUJPO
BOE
SVSBM
FYUFOTJPO
USBJOJOH
GPS
HPWFSONFOUT
UP
SFHVMBUF
BOE
DPODFOUSBUFE
IFBWZ
SBJOGBMM
PS
TFWFSF
IBT
B
SPMF
UP
QMBZ
JO
IFMQJOH
GBSNFST
JODFOUJWJ[F
UIF
QSPUFDUJPO
BOE
HSPXUI
IPU
BOE
ESZ
TQFMMT
XPVME
OPU
SFTVMU
JO
B
34 I RECOMMENDATIONS

HFOFSBM
JODSFBTF
JO
áPPEJOH
PS
ESPVHIU
XFBUIFS
FWFOUT
FTQFDJBMMZ
áPPET
BOE
BMSFBEZ
UPEBZT
#SFBDIJOH
DPOWFOUJPOBM
"T
TVDI
UIF
IVNBOJUBSJBO
TFDUPS
OFFET
ESPVHIU
m
TJODF
TVDI
FWFOUT
DBO
OFJUIFS
DPNGPSU
[POFT
JO
PSEFS
UP
XPSL
NPSF
UP
CF
DBQBCMF
OPU
KVTU
PG
QSFQBSJOH
GPS
CF
BUUSJCVUFE
OPS
dis-attributed
UP
XJEFMZ
BOE
FGGFDUJWFMZ
XJUI
OPOUSBEJUJPOBM
CVU
BMTP
SFTQPOEJOH
UP
XFBUIFSSFMBUFE
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
5IF
TBNF
XJOEPX
DPVME
IVNBOJUBSJBO
BDUPST
MJLF
UIF
QSJWBUF
TFDUPS
FNFSHFODJFT
PO
MBSHFS
TDBMFT
BOE
BU
BMTP
àOBODF
FNFSHFODZ
QSFQBSFEOFTT
PS
UIF
NJMJUBSZ
XPVME
BMTP
IFMQ
UP
FYQBOE
NPSF
GSFRVFOU
JOUFSWBMT
-JLFXJTF
BMM
BDUJWJUJFT
JO
LOPXO
IJHISJTL
IPUTQPUT
SFBDI
BOE
JNQBDU

EFWFMPQNFOU
BOE
IVNBOJUBSJBO
QBSUOFST
5IF
6/T
$FOUSBM
&NFSHFODZ
3FTQPOTF
TIPVME
JODSFBTJOHMZ
SFBMJ[F
UIF
WBMVF
'VOE
$&3'
DPVME
FTUBCMJTI
B
EFEJDBUFE
PG
CVJMEJOH
UPHFUIFS
UIF
SFTJMJFODF
PG
XJOEPX
GPS
UIJT
QVSQPTF
JO
DPOKVODUJPO
PS
DPNNVOJUJFT
UP
BWPJE
TJNQMZ
SBDJOH
UP
OPU
XJUI
UIF
(SFFO
$MJNBUF
'VOE
SFTQPOE
UP
FNFSHFODJFT
BOE
NBYJNJ[F
UIF
FGGFDUJWFOFTT
PG
EFWFMPQNFOU
8.3 Evolve thinking and partnerships: JOWFTUNFOUT &WFO
XJUIPVU
UPEBZT
DMFBS
SFTPVSDF
DPOTUSBJOUT
JU
XJMM
UBLF
NPSF
UIBO
KVTU
8.2 Establish a thematic funding BEEJUJPOBM
àOBODJBM
SFTPVSDFT
UP
DPQF
window for climate-linked emergency XJUI
UIF
JODSFBTFT
JO
SJTLT
FYQFDUFE
BT
B
response: 5IF
EBNBHF
DBVTFE
CZ
SFTVMU
PG
IFBWJFS
SBJO
BOE
NPSF
FYUSFNF
UIF
HFOFSBM
JODSFBTF
JO
UIF
FYUSFNJUZ
IFBU
4USBUFHJD
QMBOOJOH
TIPVME
RVFTUJPO
PG
DFSUBJO
UZQFT
PG
XFBUIFS
BMSFBEZ
XIFUIFS
UIF
QBTU
JT
BO
BDDVSBUF
CBTJT
BDDPVOUT
GPS
B
TJHOJàDBOU
BOE
HSPXJOH
GPS
GVUVSF
TJUVBUJPOT
HJWFO
UIF
IJHIMZ
TIBSF
PG
IVNBO
BOE
FDPOPNJD
EJTBTUFS
EZOBNJD
DPOEJUJPOT
UIF
XPSME
OPX
àOET
MPTTFT
5IF
DPODFSO
GBMMT
TRVBSFMZ
XJUIJO
JUTFMG
EFBMJOH
XJUI
BT
B
SFTVMU
PG
DMJNBUF
UIF
DPNQFUFODF
PG
UIF
6/'$$$
BOE
JT
DIBOHF
FDPOPNJD
BOE
QPQVMBUJPO
HSPXUI
B
MFHJUJNBUF
UBSHFU
GPS
DMJNBUF
DIBOHF
HMPCBMJ[BUJPO
BOE
PUIFSXJTF
&YUSFNF
àOBODF
FTQFDJBMMZ
GPS
EFWFMPQJOH
ESPVHIUT
BSF
CSFBLJOH
OFX
SFDPSET
DPVOUSJFT
XJUI
NBSHJOBM
DBQBDJUZ
UIBU
BSF
UPEBZ
CVU
UIPTF
SFDPSET
XJMM
POMZ
CF
QFOBMJ[FE
CZ
DVSSFOU
àOBODF
áPXT
XIJDI
SFCSPLFO
BHBJO
BOE
BHBJO
JO
UIF
ZFBST
TFFL
PVU
TUSPOH
iBCTPSQUJWF
DBQBDJUZu
UP
DPNF
0SHBOJ[BUJPOT
BOE
JOTUJUVUJPOBM
1FSTJTUFOU
)PSO
PG
"GSJDB
BOE
4BIFM
GPPE
SFTQPOTF
TUSVDUVSFT
XJMM
OFFE
UP
CFDPNF
TFDVSJUZ
DSJTFT
IJHIMJHIU
UIF
FYUFOU
UP
NPSF
BDDVTUPNFE
UP
EFBMJOH
XJUI
IJHIMZ
XIJDI
UIF
JOUFSOBUJPOBM
IVNBOJUBSJBO
VODFSUBJO
BOE
TQFDVMBUJWF
JOGPSNBUJPO
DPNNVOJUZ
JT
OPU
TVGàDJFOUMZ
FRVJQQFE
àOE
FGàDJFOU
XBZT
UP
QSFQBSF
GPS
B
SBOHF
UP
DPQF
XJUI
DMJNBUFSFMBUFE
EJTBTUFST
PG
EJGGFSFOU
QPTTJCMF
PVUDPNFT
JODMVEJOH
"T
DMJNBUF
TUSFTTFT
DPOUJOVF
UP
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36 I RESEARCH PROCESS

level of vulnerability to climate INCEPTION AND DEVELOPMENT change and its human development The first edition of the Monitor was status. However, it became evident meant to serve as a departure that not all original country-level point for discussions to refine results were satisfactory and that understanding of climate certain sections of the original vulnerability. As stated in that 2010 report oversimplified the socio- report, the goal has been to improve economic effects of climate change. both the methodology and the Nor did the original format provide accuracy of this tool going forward. sufficient granularity for sector-level A number of considerations raised effects (economic impacts were during the development of the first limited to “land” and “marine”) report by external review bodies or convey key nuances between could not be adequately addressed different levels of certainty. at that time, but instead have fed Much of the difficulty stemmed into development of the second from a heavy reliance on third-party edition. So while this new report global or regional macro models was only formally commissioned in that pooled information at those November 2011, the second Monitor levels, leading to a certain degree nevertheless has its origins well of inaccuracy in the results for some rooted in the first. countries, since the information The original Monitor approached the wasn’t designed for the Monitor’s problem of climate change in a non- nation-by-nation analysis. This technical but policy-relevant way. It second edition continued to draw established a conceptual framework on other studies; however, it still did that assessed vulnerability at the not solve the challenge of providing national level. But it allowed for accurate national-level outputs. an understanding of vulnerability The difficulties of re-running climate as internationally fluid not static, impacts models developed by others with today’s isolated vulnerabilities is a recognised issue for the field rapidly becoming tomorrow’s shared (Nordhaus, 2011). vulnerabilities. Separating out The second Monitor’s now greatly some of the different components expanded set of indicators is of vulnerability helped to show that therefore primarily anchored in nearly every country in the world individual bodies of recent research faces some aspect of the problem pertaining to discrete effect areas, to a high degree. Much of the such as distinct economic sectors architecture of the original report is (agriculture, fisheries, forestry,

RESEARCH PROCESS retained in this Monitor. etc.) and specific resource, health Not unsurprisingly, a number of or environmental impacts (e.g. headline conclusions from the water, heat and cold illnesses and 2010 report still hold, such as an biodiversity). DARA has also worked insufficient focus on the human with additional external advisory health impacts affecting most bodies in order to further the range vulnerable communities or the highly of inputs. The new Monitor also significant links between a country’s includes a new thematic pillar. RESEARCH PROCESS I 37

While the original edition focused personal capacity and represent peer-reviewed scientific literature. on the effect of “Climate”, this a broad spectrum of expertise This report is designed primarily as edition focuses on both “Climate” and viewpoints on the topic as a policy and communication tool and “Carbon”. The new section on well as a variety of stakeholder that strives for technical accuracy the socio-economic impacts of groups whose perspectives and in encapsulating the scientific the carbon economy came from involvement have helped enrich work of third parties together with recognition that there is a distinct, the Monitor’s development, other forms of qualitative and symbiotic relationship between analysis and presentation. The quantitative information, including climate change concerns and the research team responds to every field-based research. carbon economy. Viewing climate question and critique from these policy more holistically will help groups and endeavours to reflect COUNTRY STUDIES decision makers form parallel or all input within the limitations of Country studies were undertaken combined responses to both the the overall project. in Vietnam and Ghana in March consequences of global warming The expectations for the second 2012. In each case, a half-day and its root causes. Monitor were presented to the national workshop was convened Another major adjustment to the report advisory bodies at the to present conclusions of desk second Monitor is the inclusion beginning of 2012 in the form research conducted by DARA and of in-depth country-level input, of an Inception Report to which to seek substantive input from key including field research and DARA received a first round of stakeholders and policy makers exchanges with local specialists. substantive feedback. across public, private and civil This input was viewed as a must The second Monitor then society groups. Two representative for the effective development of an underwent two separate territorial units were also identified improved Monitor report, and the methodological and quantitative in each country for field research, governments and experts of Ghana reviews by its Peer Review and dozens of extended interviews and Vietnam fully embraced and Committee, including a full-day were conducted there with engaged with that process. workshop in Geneva in April senior representatives of local 2012. A dialogue between government, civil society and Committee members and business groups. CONSULTATION the Research Team was also organised with representatives ADDITIONAL CONSULTATIONS & COUNTRY RESEARCH of the Climate Vulnerable Forum Climate Vulnerable Forum EXTERNAL ADVISORY BODIES on that occasion. A draft report delegates were briefed on the Two external advisory bodies have was submitted for review to Monitor’s progress at an official provided critical input at various both bodies in August 2012 and open session of the group at intervals during the course of the adjusted prior to public release. the UN climate change talks in Monitor’s development. A senior Individual members of the Bonn, Germany in May 2012. Advisory Panel provides strategic advisory bodies comment only Additionally, some early results guidance on the Monitor’s framing, on certain aspects of the project, from the Monitor project were analysis and recommendations. not on its entirety, based on their presented and discussed An open format Peer Review expertise, availability and other publicly at an official Climate Committee provides specialist considerations. Vulnerable Forum Side Event to and technical input in particular While the Monitor benefits from the UN Conference on Sustainable on methodological and theoretical external advisory bodies and Development (Rio+20) in Rio de issues. open peer review, the system Janeiro in June 2012. Participants in these two bodies and approach of this project is to serve in a non-remunerated be distinguished from academic 38 I RESEARCH PROCESS

10 11 12 1ST METHODOLOGICAL / ACCRA BOLGATANGA, QUANTITATIVE National Workshop GHANA REVIEW March 2012 Field Research March 2012 Monitor 2nd Ed. April 2012

9 SOUTH-EAST COAST, GHANA Field Research March 2012

A 8 D EL VISORY PAN BEN TRE, VIETNAM Field Research March 2012

7

S TE UP HANOI ER RO National Workshop ING G March 2012

RESEARCH PROCESS YEN BAI, INCEPTION DURBAN UNFCCC COP17 REPORT Official Forum Side Event VIETNAM Monitor 2nd Ed. Presentation of the Field Research February 2012 Dhaka Declaration March 2012 6 5 December 2011 4 RESEARCH PROCESS I 39

13 14 15 16 BONN RIO DE JANEIRO 2ND METHODOLOGICAL / GENEVA UNFCCC Intercessional UN Conference on Peer Review Negotiations Sustainable Development QUANTITATIVE REVIEW Committee Workshop Official Forum Side Event Official Forum Side Event nd April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 Monitor 2 Ed. July 2012

17

DRAFT REPORT REVIEW Monitor 2nd Ed. August 2012

CLIMATE 18 P EE EE R R ITT VULNERABILITY EVIEW COMM NEW YORK Launch of Monitor 2nd Ed. MONITOR September 2012

19 2ND EDITION

E D I M TO EA WASHINGTON, D.C. RIA H T Expert Discussion L/RESEARC October 2012

20

CANCÚN DHAKA UNFCCC COP16 LONDON DOHA Climate Vulnerable Forum st st UNFCCC COP18 Ministerial Meeting Launch of Monitor 1 Ed. Launch of Monitor 1 Ed. Official Forum Side Event November 2011 December 2010 December 2010 November 2012 321

KEY ISSUES 42 I KEY ISSUES ADDITIONAL DEATHS

2010 d 2,750

d 3,500 d 2030 d 2,500 2010 20,000 2010 2030 d 45,000 2030 d 3,500

d d 2010 55,000 2010 85,000 2030 d 80,000 2030 d 150,000

d 3.1 MILLION 2010 2010 d 35,000 d 3.1 MILLION 2030 2030 d 35,000

d d 225,000 2010 1.4 MILLION 2010 2030 d 2.1 MILLION 2030 d 380,000

d d 2010 30,000 2010 20,000 2030 d 40,000 2030 d 20,000

Floods & landslides Storms Diarrheal infections Heat & cold illnesses Hunger Malaria & vector-borne Meningitis Air pollution Indoor smoke Occupational hazards Skin cancer DEATHS/COSTS I 43 ADDITIONAL COSTS

2010 d 29 2010 d 20 2030 d 213 2030 d 61

2010 d 66 2010 d 52 2010 d 491 2010 d 296 2030 d 565 2030 d -11 2030 d 3,461 2030 d 1,749

2010 d 23 2010 d 172 2030 d 106 2030 d 630

Climate Carbon

Enviromental disasters Habitat change Health Industry stress = Billion USD PPP (2010 non-discounted) - negative values show gains 44 I KEY ISSUES AFFECTED GROUPS

ARID REGIONS SMALL ISLANDS

FARMERS LOW-ELEVATION COASTAL COMMUNITIES

CYCLONE BELT COUNTRIES COASTAL CITIES

SIDS SUBSISTENCE FARMERS

ARID FORESTED ZONES WATER-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES

DEFORESTATION ZONES CHILDREN

INDIGENOUS GROUPS INFANTS

DRYLAND COMMUNITIES LOWER-INCOME COMMUNITIES/GROUPS

AFRICA CHRONIC DISEASE SUFFERERS

HUMID TROPICAL COUNTRIES OUTDOOR WORKERS

PREGNANT WOMEN CITIES

SMALL CHILDREN SUBSISTENCE FISHERFOLK

ELDERLY REMOTE COMMUNITIES

ARCTIC COMMUNITIES SAHEL MENINGITIS BELT

MOUNTAINOUS COMMUNITIES YOUNG ADULTS AFFECTED GROUPS I 45

TROPICAL COUNTRIES VEHICLE DRIVERS

LIVELIHOODS DERIVED FROM FISHING COAL AND GAS POWER PLANT WORKERS

ENERGY COMPANIES FAIR SKINNED

BEACH RESORTS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

LOW-ELEVATION WINTER RESORTS CHINA

DENSELY POPULATED RIVER WAYS RIVER BASINS

OIL SAND HOST COMMUNITIES OUTDOOR OCCUPATIONS

COASTAL COMMUNITIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES

TROPICAL FOREST COMMUNITIES/ZONES HEAVILY LABOURING WORKERS

NEWLY-INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES LOWER INCOME COMMUNITIES

TRANSITION ECONOMIES FISHERMEN

INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

WOMEN Drought Floods & landslides Storms Wildfi res Biodiversity Diarrheal infections Heat & cold illnesses Hunger Malaria & vector-borne

Meningitis Desertifi cation Heating and Cooling Labour productivity RURAL POPULATIONS WITH POOR ENERGY ACCESS Sea level rise Agriculture Fisheries Tourism Water Forestry Hydro Energy Transport Permafrost

Biodiversity Fisheries Oil sands Air pollution Indoor smoke

COAL MINERS OIL Spills Water Skin cancer Agriculture Forestry

Corrosion Occupational hazards 46 I KEY ISSUES GEOPOLITICS

CLIMATE

LDCs LDCs

OECD SIDSs OECD SIDSs 2010 2030 G8 BRIC G8 BRIC

G20 G20

DEATHS DUE TO CLIMATE AND CARBON PER 100,000

120 110 112

100 90 84 80 80 77

59 60 57

40 40 39 28 23 20 16 15 11 12 12 7 5 6 0 0 2 2 0 DEVELOPED OTHER BASICLLDC LDC SIDS COUNTRIES INDUSTRIALIZED

COUNTRIES Climate, 2010 Climate, 2030

Climate Carbon Carbon, 2010 Carbon, 2030

Acute Severe High Moderate Low GEOPOLITICS I 47

CARBON

BRIC BRIC

SIDSs G20 SIDSs G20 2010 2030 OECD G8 OECD G8

LDCs LDCs

COSTS DUE TO CLIMATE AND CARBON, % OF GDP

9%

8% 7.9%

7%

6%

5%

4% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0% DEVELOPED OTHER BASICLLDC LDC SIDS COUNTRIES INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES BASIC: Brazil, South Africa, India and China LDC: Least Developed Countries

LLDC: Land Locked Developing Countries SIDS: Small Island Developing States 48 I KEY ISSUES HOTSPOTS

CLIMATE

2010 2030 2010 2030

182,000 INDIA 333,000 72 CHINA 727 17,000 PAKISTAN 37,000 89 INDIA 680

26,000 NIGERIA 31,000 48 MEXICO 368

17,000 DR CONGO 25,000 36 INDONESIA 282

15,000 BANGLADESH 21,000 21 THAILAND 166 10,000 ETHIOPIA 16,000 14 VIETNAM 159

9,000 INDONESIA 13,000 15 MALAYSIA 119

8,000 AFGHANISTAN 13,000 16 BRAZIL 118

7,000 MYANMAR 11,000 45 UNITED STATES 116

6,000 SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN 8,000 13 PHILIPPINES 102

6,000 TANZANIA 8,000 15 NIGERIA 94 5,000 UGANDA 7,000 11 COLOMBIA 87 4,000 MOZAMBIQUE 6,000 11 VENEZUELA 84 4,000 ANGOLA 5,000 11 PAKISTAN 81 3,000 BRAZIL 5,000 7 BANGLADESH 69 3,000 COTE D'IVOIRE 5,000 17 RUSSIA 61 3,000 NIGER 4,000 7 IRAN 50 4,000 CAMERON 4,000 5 MYANMAR 39 3,000 BURKINA FASO 4,000 7 ARGENTINA 38 3,000 CHAD 4,000 5 SOUTH AFRICA 32

Climate Carbon Economic Cost (billion PPP USD) HOTSPOTS I 49

CARBON

2010 2030 2010 2030

1,379,000 CHINA 1,643,000 71 CHINA 451 923,000 INDIA 1,059,000 114 UNITED STATES 305

148,000 PAKISTAN 234,000 42 BRAZIL 298

123,000 INDONESIA 184,000 39 INDIA 129

177,000 NIGERIA 168,000 19 INDONESIA 121 99,000 BANGLADESH 118,000 22 RUSSIA 119

84,000 AFGHANISTAN 114,000 11 MEXICO 73 81,000 UNITED STATES 112,000 10 ARGENTINA 71

107,000 ETHIOPIA 94,000 9 MALAYSIA 67

84,000 DR CONGO 91,000 8 PERU 58

98,000 RUSSIA 77,000 19 CANADA 53 55,000 VIETNAM 65,000 6 COLOMBIA 46 50,000 BRAZIL 64,000 10 ANGOLA 40 34,000 TURKEY 49,000 5 GABON 33 25,000 IRAN 48,000 4 VENEZUELA 33 32,000 PHILIPPINES 46,000 4 BOLIVIA 31 40,000 MYANMAR 45,000 10 AUSTRALIA 26 34,000 JAPAN 41,000 4 THAILAND 19 39,000 ANGOLA 40,000 9 JAPAN 18 42,000 UKRAINE 39,000 5 PAKISTAN 18 50 I KEY ISSUES MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS

END EXTREME POVERTY & HUNGER

UNIVERSAL EDUCATION

GENDER EQUALITY

CHILD MORTALITY

Floods & landslides Storms Diarrheal infections Heat & cold illnesses Hunger Malaria & vector-borne Meningitis Drought Biodiversity Desertification Heating and Cooling Labour productivity Sea-level rise Agriculture Fisheries Tourism Water Forestry Hydro Energy Biodiversity Fisheries Oil sands Air pollution Indoor smoke Oil Spills Water MDGS I 51

MATERNAL HEALTH

COMBAT HIV/AIDS & INFECTIOUS DISEASES

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 52 I KEY ISSUES INJUSTICE

Floods & landslides Storms Diarrheal infections Heat & cold illnesses Hunger Malaria & vector-borne Meningitis Wildfires

Permafrost Forestry Tourism Desertification Fisheries Sea-level rise Hydro Energy Transport Biodiversity

Heating & Cooling Drought Labour Productivity Water Agriculture INJUSTICE I 53

2010 20302010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 EUROPE AMERICAS

EASTERN EUROPE CARIBBEAN NORTHERN EUROPE CENTRAL AMERICA WESTERN EUROPE NORTH AMERICA SOUTHERN EUROPE SOUTH AMERICA ASIA-PACIFIC AFRICA

AUSTRALASIA CENTRAL AFRICA CENTRAL ASIA EAST AFRICA EAST ASIA NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST SOUTHERN AFRICA PACIFIC WEST AFRICA RUSSIA/NORTH ASIA SOUTH ASIA SOUTHEAST ASIA 54 I KEY ISSUES CLIMATE FINANCE

PRIORITY

Climate

Floods & landslides Storms Diarrheal infections Heat & cold illnesses Hunger Malaria & vector-borne Meningitis Wildfires

Permafrost Forestry Tourism Desertification Fisheries Sea-Level Rise Hydro Energy Transport Biodiversity

Heating & Cooling Drought Labour Productivity Water Agriculture FINANCE I 55

In 2010, developed countries provided priorities, such as Agenda 21. Given that and India for another 15%, does mean the large-scale impact possible through 14 billion dollars of their Official today still only a fraction of countries all other developing countries capture policy frameworks with a bearing in Development Assistance (ODA) as have actually provided in excess of just over 5% of any investment flows. the private sector, as opposed to ODA climate finance, a significant increase 0.7% GNI as ODA, just 1 billion dollars Many countries have no CDM projects at finance efforts, even when these are from around 7 billion in 2009. However, of new climate finance alone can be all and no national capacity to register only moderately effective (given CDM the degree to which these resources considered additional to this particular CDM projects. coverage limitations alone). Effective are “new and additional” as agreed at commitment. In an ongoing financial and economic policies for technology development the international climate change talks To the degree, therefore, that crisis that runs parallel to time- and transfer, capacity building and at Copenhagen and Cancún is seriously commitments on climate finance are restricted policy windows for addressing regulatory mechanisms have the in question. The Fast Start Finance delivering, they are also unquestionably core global concerns such as climate potential to yield significant impact in target of 30 billion dollars over the three at the expense of previous commitments change, a heavy reliance on further terms of implementation of sustainable years from 2010 to 2012 would imply to related sustainable development delivery through ODA finance is clearly development visions, including in the approximately 10 billion dollars’ worth priorities. Neither is the picture for 2011 a restrictive avenue of action. The climate agenda, the Rio agenda and of new climate finance per year. While likely to be substantively different, example of the CDM also demonstrates otherwise. collectively climate finance for 2010 was since under preliminary reporting, a respectable 7 billion dollars higher overall ODA has increased by just than in 2009, only 5 billion is derived 3.9%, broadly enough to keep up with Climate change finance from developed countries to developing from increases in donors’ ODA volumes one year of global inflation over this countries is reported by all donors as a part of their Official Development – i.e. approximately 2 billion dollars period as reported by the International Assistance (ODA). This analysis was based on the Organization for Economic of those resources have been either Monetary Fund. Furthermore, almost Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) CRS database – the only truly diverted or reclassified from existing 90% of this finance was targeted comprehensive and comparable source of financial tracking available, although it ODA flows. towards mitigation activities, with 14% is exclusively a donor reporting mechanism. Research focused on the latest data If, however, other commitments related committed to adaptation – a clear accessible, which is for the year 2010. 2010 is also the first year of so-called Fast to ODA are taken into account, the discrimination versus the agreements Start Finance – additional commitments to climate change finance agreed at the level of “additionality” and new finance made at Copenhagen and Cancún, UN Climate Summit at Copenhagen (COP15) and further confirmed at the next diminishes considerably. In the 1970s, whereby it was firmly agreed that there Summit in Cancún (COP16). The analysis has benefitted from the Rio markers a collective commitment to provide would be a balance of resources for the for climate change used by donor governments and the OECD. Only finance to 0.7% of the Gross National Income two purposes. projects reported to have climate change as a principal objective were included (GNI) of developed countries as ODA Financial flows in the form of aid or in the analysis so as to retain comparability with sector-based development to developing countries was agreed climate finance have been central to finance analysis, where partially related funding is ignored. That focus also partly to in the UN General Assembly. That policy debate and intergovernmental addresses further concerns over the misrepresentation and double-counting of commitment has been consistently negotiations for responses to a share of climate finance as reported by other recent independent research into met by a handful of developed country sustainable development challenges the topic. The approach used here represents just one perspective on monitoring donors since the mid-1970s and has and climate change. But ODA-related international climate finance flows; other methodologies could have been chosen been reconfirmed in numerous official flows are only a fraction of the picture. and would have likely yielded different results and conclusions. international contexts. The 2005 G8 Investment linked to projects of summit at Gleneagles and the UN the UNFCCC’s Clean Development 2005 World Summit, which launched Mechanism, for instance, are now the Millennium Development Goals several times the level of climate finance for 2015, saw a spate of new ODA through ODA. More than half of ODA is, ADDITIONALITY BILLIONS OF USD commitments – including countries far in any case, concessional debt – and behind the 0.7% target – all attempts to a possible liability. More than half of 5.2 reach 0.7% by 2015, with interim ODA all CDM projects, on the other hand, volume goals for 2010. are estimated to result in a technology Only 2 billion dollars of new climate transfer of one form or another – a finance for 2010 is actually additional further bonus. Despite this, the CDM to these targets for progressing towards arguably absorbs much less of the 0.7% of GNI or flows above that – attention of policy makers than finance. 2.0 commitments that had already been This is partly ascribed to the faltering 1.1 made by the same group of countries political support currently enjoyed by the in order to support the achievement Kyoto Protocol mechanism. But the fact of the Millennium Development Goals, that China to-date accounts for almost Additional Additional to Additional to among other sustainable development 80% of all CDM investments by volume, to ODA 2009 ODA Commitments 0.7 GNI 56 I INDICATOR OVERVIEW

INDICATOR OVERVIEW Affected Country Group Impact Areas Indicators ConfidenceSeverity Surge Injustice Priority Gender Bias

DROUGHT FLOODS & LANDSLIDES STORMS WILDFIRES BIODIVERSITY DESERTIFICATION HEATING & COOLING

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY PERMAFROST SEA-LEVEL RISE WATER DIARRHEAL INFECTIONS CLIMATE HEAT & COOL ILLNESSES HUNGER MALARIA & VECTOR BORNE MENINGITIS AGRICULTURE

FISHERIES FORESTRY

HYDRO ENERGY TOURISM TRANSPORT

WORLD

OIL SANDS

OIL SPILLS BIODIVERSITY CORROSION WATER AIR POLLUTION INDOOR SMOKE CARBON OCCUPATIONAL HAZARDS SKIN CANCER AGRICULTURE

FISHERIES

FORESTRY WORLD

Absolute (largest overall share of total negative impact) Relative (highest share of total losses vs. GDP/per capita) Model Emission scenario Additional mortality – yearly average INDICATOR OVERVIEW I 57

Info Change Impact 20102030 2010 2030

Corti et al., 2009; Hoekstra et al., 2010; Rubel SRES A1B (IPCC, 2007) 71% 10 5,000 20,000 and Kottek, 2010; Sheffield and Wood, 2007 Kharin et al., 2007 SRES A1B (IPCC, 2007) 4% 231% 8 2,750 3,500 10,000 95,000

IPCC SRES A1B Donat et al, 2011; Mendelsohn et al., 2011 24% 129% 7 2,500 3,500 15,000 100,000 (IPCC, 2000) Krawchuk et al., 2009 IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2000) 106% 14 -15 -90

IPCC SRES A1B Baumgartner et al., 2012; Thomas et al., 2004 74% 3 80,000 400,000 (IPCC, 2000) IPCC SRES A1B Hansen et al., 2007 56% 11 5,000 20,000 (IPCC, 2000) Isaac et al., 2008 TIMER/IMAGE reference scenario for 19% 22 -35,000 -75,000 the ADAM project (Isaac et al. 2008) Euskirchen, 2006; Kjellstrom et al., 2009 SRES A2 (IPCC, 2000) 174% 1 300,000 2,500,000

UKTR GCM-based scenario Hoekstra et al., 2010; Nelson et al., 2001 71% 5 30,000 150,000 (Nelson et al., 2001) DIVA, 2003 A1F1 (IPCC, 2000) 115% 2 85,000 550,000

Hoekstra et al., 2010; McKinsey and Company, 2009; IPCC SRES A1B 68% 12 15,000 15,000 Nohara, 2006; Portmann et al., 2010; Rosengrant et al., 2002 (IPCC, 2000) McMichael et al., 2004 S750 (IPCC, 2007) 56% 15 85,000 150,000

Curriero et al., 2002; Knutti et al., 2008; Toulemon and IPCC SRES A1B 20% 16 35,000 35,000 Barbieri, 2006; Van Noort et al., 2012 (IPCC, 2000) McMichael et al., 2004 S750 (IPCC, 2007) 42% 17 225,000 380,000

McMichael et al., 2004 S750 (IPCC, 2007) 15% 18 20,000 20,000 Adamo et al., 2011; Sheffield and Wood, 2008 SRES A1B (IPCC, 2000) 25% 19 30,000 40,000 Cline, 2007 Cline, 2007 157% 4 50,000 350,000

Cheung et al., 2010; O´Reilly et al., 2003 SRES A1B (IPCC, 2000) 355% 6 15,000 150,000

US Forest Service (2010) SRES A1B (IPCC, 2000) 182% 9 5,000 45,000

Lehner, 2003; Nohara, 2006 SRES A1B (IPCC, 2000) 134% 21 -5,000 -25,000

ECLAC, 2011; Steiger, 2011 SRES A1B (IPCC, 2000) 20 Jonkeren et al, 2011; Nohara et al, 2006 SRES A1B (IPCC, 2000) 96% 13 1,000 5,000

400,250 632,000 575,985 4,299,910

CAPP, 2011; CERES, 2010 12% 5 5,000 25,000 Muehlenbachs et al., 2011; 5% 3 10,000 40,000 Schmidt, 2004; Westwood, 2010 Costanza, 2006; Hooper, 2012; Reilly, 2008 109% 1 300,000 1,750,000

OECD, 2012 24% 7 1,000 5,000

OECD, 2012 18% 6 5,000 10,000

Bell et al., 2007; OECD, 2012; Sheffield et al., 2011 32% 8 1,400,000 2,100,000

OECD, 2012 17% 9 3,100,000 3,100,000

BP, 2012; Mathers and Loncar, 2006 26% 10 55,000 80,000

Martens, 1998; WHO IARC, 2005 87% 11 20,000 45,000

Avnery, 2011; Hansen et al., 2007; Ramanathan et al., 2008; World Bank, 2005 494% 12 15,000 -150,000 IGBP-DIS SoilData(V.0), 2008; OECD,2012 203% 2 10,000 75,000 Costanza et al., 1997; OECD, 2012; 5% 4 30,000 85,000 Reilly, 2008; Wentzel, 1982 4,575,000 5,325,000 376,000 1,840,000

Additional economic costs in 2010 USD (negative numbers show gains) (thousands) – yearly average Order no. of impact by overall economic scale versus the climate section (or carbon section for carbon indicators)