CLIMATE VULNERABILITYThe State MONITOR of the Climate 2010 Crisis EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Estimated figures are based on scientific research or expert assumptions in a world marked with uncertainty. The real numbers could be higher or lower. CLIMATE VULNERABILITY * All estimated mortality statistics or deaths are representative of more widespread harm. Every 100,000 deaths would normally indicate several million cases of illness or disability (DALYs), or people displaced, IN NUMBERS injured or in need of emergency assistance. Nearly Some AlreaDY 1 MILLION 5 MILLION 350,000 CLimate CHANGE DriveN CLIMATE DEATHS CLIMATE DEATHS DeatHS* estimateD every ESTIMATED OVER THE NEXT ESTIMATED EACH siNGLE year FROM 2030 IF TEN YEARS IN ABSENCE OF YEAR TODAY actiON is NOT taKEN AN EFFECTIVE RESPONSE AlmoST Over ArounD 80% 99% 150 BILLION OF ALL CLIMATE DEATHS ARE OF ALL MORTALITY DOLLARS IN LOSSES REGISTERED ONLY AMONG OCCURS IN TO TODAY’S ECONOMY CHILDREN LIVING IN SOUTH DEVELOPING ESTIMATED TO BE CAUSED ASIA OR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA COUNTRIES BY CLIMATE CHANGE More THan Some Over HALF 170 50 OF THE TOTAL COUNTRIES -- OR MOST OF HIGHLY EFFECTIVE MEASURES INCLUDED ECONOMIC LOSSES THE WORLD -- HAVE HIGH IN THIS REPORT ARE READILY AVAILABLE TAKE PLACE IN VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE TO LIMIT VIRTUALLY ALL HARM CAUSED INDUSTRIALIZED CHANGE IN AT LEAST ONE KEY BY CLIMATE CHANGE -- JUST A GLIMPSE COUNTRIES IMPACT AREA ALREADY TODAY OF THE MANY MORE OPTIONS AVAILABLE The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures. 1992 UniteD NationS FrameWorK Convention on Climate CHanGE The Climate Vulnerability Monitor aims CountrieS: to advance understanding of the impacts Climate Climate of climate change on human society and 184 IMPact AreaS Vulnerability actions needed to address these effects. It combines a series of measures, Time FrameS: HEalTH ImPACT - additional mortality FactorS due to climate sensitive diseases ranging from human health and extreme £ ACUTE (most vulnerable category) weather to desertification, sea-level 2010 anD WEATHER DIsasTERS - additional rise and stresses on natural resources mortality and damage in storms, £ SEVERE and productive sectors of the economy. floods and wildfires These indicators provide a probable 2030 £ HIGH HABITAT LOss - additional loss picture of the current state of the £ MODERATE climate crisis for 184 countries around of human habitat to rising seas, the world both today and for 2030. This and degrading arid lands £ LOW (least vulnerable category) global assessment provides the first ECONOMIC STREss - extra losses in comprehensive overview of vulnerability the primary/agricultural sectors of the to climate change in an internationally economy and to key natural resources comparable form. The 2010 Monitor's Adaptation Performance Review further IRIN highlights over 50 effective measures that can be readily taken to reduce the identified impacts of climate change. Sinan Mahmoud/ Sinan A New TOOL FOR assessiNG THE vuLNerabiLity OF TODay’S WORLD AND its NatiONS TO CLimate CHANGE Director General of The Energy Ian Christoplos ADVISORY Resources Institute (TERI) Senior Project Researcher of the EDITORIAL Teresa Ribera Danish Institute for International PANEL Studies (DIIS) TEAM Mary Chinery-Hesse Secretary of State for Climate SteerING GrOUP CO - ChaIrs Change of Spain Pierre Encontre Chief Advisor to the Former Ross Mountain Johan Rockström Chief of Special Programmes President of Ghana, Member Director General of DARA of the Panel of the Wise Executive Director of the of the Division for Africa, Least of the African Union Stockholm Environment Developed Countries and Marc Limon Special Programmes of the Counsellor of the Maldives Helen Clark Institute (SEI) and Stockholm Resilience Centre UN Conference on Trade and Mission to the UN and other Administrator of the UN Development (UNCTAD) Hans Joachim Schellnhuber international organizations Development Programme (UNDP) Anne Hammill in Geneva CONTENTS Jan Eliasson Founding Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Senior Researcher on Climate Former President of the UN DARA PREFACE 5 / Impact Research (PIK) Change and Energy of the General Assembly, Former International Institute for Matthew McKinnon Foreign Minister of Sweden Klaus Töpfer Sustainable Development (IISD) (Coordinating Editor) FINDINGS & OBSERVATIONS 6 / José María Figueres Former Executive Director Lucía Fernández Suárez of the UN Environment Juergen Kropp Former President of Costa Rica, RECOMMENDATIONS 7 / Programme (UNEP) Head of the North-South Research Geeta Uhl Chairman of the Carbon War Room Group of the Potsdam Institue for Margareta Wahlström THE MONITOR / Saleemul Huq Climate Impact Research (PIK) COmmOns COnsUltants UN Assistant Secretary-General HOW DOES THE MONITOR WORK? 8 / Senior Fellow at the International Søren Peter Andreasen for Disaster Risk Reduction Marc Levy Institute for Environment and Deputy Director of the Centre (Production Editor) Michael Zammit Cutajar DATA TABLES 9-11 / Development (IIED) for International Earth Science Jakob Mathias Wichmann Yolanda Kakabadse Former Executive Secretary of Information Network (CIESIN) the UN Framework Convention Anne-Mette Steinmeier IMPACTS / International President of the of the Earth Institute at on Climate Change (UNFCCC) World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Columbia University Peter Utzon Berg WHO SUFFERS? 12 / Bo Lim Andreas Hastrup Clemmensen Ashok Khosla A FAST GROWING IMPACT 13 / President of the International Special Climate Change Advisor of UN Development Programme Union for Conservation of A CLIMATE-DEVELOPMENT NEXUS 14 / Nature (IUCN), Chairman of PEER REVIEW (UNDP) Development Alternatives, Urs Luterbacher RESPONSE / Co-Chair of the UN Resources Panel COMMITTEE Chairman of the Environmental HOW TO RESPOND? 15 / Ricardo Lagos Yasemin Aysan Studies Unit of the Graduate Former President of Chile, Institute of International and Former Under Secretary General ADAPTATION Former President of the Club of International Federation of Development Studies of Madrid Red Cross and Red Crescent Pascal Peduzzi PERFORMANCE REVIEW 16 / Loren Legarda Societies (IFRC) Head of the Early Warning Unit of THE ADAPTATION GAP 17 / Senator of the Philippines, UN Suruchi Bhadwal the Global Resource Information International Strategy for Disaster Database (GRID – Europe) of Associate Director of the Earth AFFECTED GROUPS / Reduction (ISDR) Regional Sciences and Climate Change the UN Environment Programme Champion for Disaster Risk Division of The Energy and (UNEP) FRAGILE NATIONS 18 / Reduction and Climate Change Resources Institute (TERI) Hansjoerg Strohmeyer SMALL ISLAND Adaptation for Asia and the Pacific Manuel Carballo Chief of the Policy Development The Advisory Panel and Peer DEVELOPING STATES 19 / Ahmed Naseem Executive Director of the and Studies Branch of the UN Review Committee members Minister of Foreign Affairs International Centre for Office for the Coordination of serve in their personal capacity of the Maldives Migration and Health (ICMH) Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) providing input to the Climate AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA 20 / Vulnerability Initiative that informs Rajendra Pachauri Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum Farhana Yamin the development of the Climate EMERGING MARKETS 21 / Chairman of the Senior Scientist on Public Health Portfolio Manager of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor. DARA is Intergovernmental Panel and Environment of the World Change Division of the Children’s solely responsible for the final on Climate Change (IPCC), Health Organisation (WHO) Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) content of this report. ADVANCED ECONOMIES 22 / The Climate Vulnerability Monitor lays bare the meet this growing challenge. If not, the Monitor 5 / CVM 2010 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / P sheer scale and breadth of the impacts we estimates that by 2030, over 130 countries already face. It breaks ground in pinpointing will be highly vulnerable to climate change; Preface our vulnerabilities to climate change all while over 50 countries will suffer the kinds of around the world. It shows how each country acute impacts that just a handful of particularly Climate change is vulnerable in different ways -- some due to fragile states are experiencing today. According health reasons or extreme weather patterns, to the scientific consensus, we must also is the most urgent and others as a result of economic factors begin reversing our patterns of emissions or because of land loss from expanding within the next five years to avoid even greater challenge of our time. deserts or rising sea-levels. It explains why temperature change and greater harm. many nations at the climate frontline feel the As with every study of this kind, the Monitor impacts of climate change more intensely. lacks complete certainty, but highlights And it demonstrates how quickly vulnerability enough threats of serious, or even irreversible, is accelerating almost everywhere, so that re harm that inaction is unconscionable. F ultimately climate change could threaten the ace livelihoods, if not the survival, of all nations There is still time to act and it is well within and peoples. The fate of the world is tied to our power to solve the climate crisis. A the fate of the most vulnerable. world free from pollution would be healthier for everyone; technologies could