CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOR !$ " " # ADVISORY PANEL Mary Chinery-Hesse Chief Advisor to the Former President Ahmed Naseem of Ghana Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Member of the Panel of the Wise of the Maldives of the African Union (incoming) Rajendra Pachauri Helen Clark Chairman of the Intergovernmental Administrator of the UN Development Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Programme (UNDP) Director General of The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) Jan Eliasson Former President of the Teresa Ribera UN General Assembly Secretary of State for Climate Former Foreign Minister of Sweden Change of Spain José María Figueres Johan Rockström Former President of Costa Rica Executive Director of the Stockholm Chairman of the Carbon War Room Environment Institute (SEI) and Stockholm Resilience Centre Saleemul Huq Senior Fellow at the International Institute Hans Joachim Schellnhuber for Environment and Development (IIED) Founding Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Yolanda Kakabadse International President of the Klaus Töpfer World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Former Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Ashok Khosla President of the International Union Margareta Wahlström for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) UN Assistant Secretary-General Chairman of Development Alternatives for Disaster Risk Reduction Co-Chair, UN Resources Panel Michael Zammit Cutajar Ricardo Lagos Former Executive Secretary of the UN Former President of Chile Framework Convention on Climate Change Former President of the Club of Madrid (UNFCCC) Loren Legarda Senator of the Philippines UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) Regional Champion for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation for Asia and the Pacific THE CLIMATE VULNERABLE FORUM DARA is a global partnership of leaders of countries most is an international organization based in Madrid, vulnerable to climate change actively seeking a firm Spain, committed to improving the quality and and urgent resolution to the growing climate crisis. effectiveness of aid for vulnerable populations The Climate Vulnerable Forum was founded by suffering from conflict, disasters and climate President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives and change. Since its foundation in 2003 by Silvia first met in November 2009. The Declaration of the Hidalgo, DARA has conducted independent Climate Vulnerable Forum adopted then expressed evaluations of major development and alarm at the rate of changes and danger witnessed humanitarian assistance initiatives in over 40 around the planet due to the effects of human- countries across five continents, and developed induced global warming and called for urgent most innovative tools to promote the effectiveness of international cooperation to tackle the challenge. aid and good humanitarian donorship. PEER REVIEW COMMITTEE Yasemin Aysan Juergen Kropp Under Secretary General of International Head of the North-South Research Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Group of the Potsdam Institute Societies (IFRC) for Climate Impact Research Suruchi Bhadwal Marc Levy Associate Director of the Earth Sciences Deputy Director of the Centre and Climate Change Division of The Energy for International Earth Science and Resources Institute (TERI) Information Network of the Earth Institute at Columbia University Manuel Carballo Executive Director of the International Bo Lim Committee for Migration and Health (ICMH) Special Climate Change Advisor of UN Development Programme (UNDP) Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum Senior Scientist on Public Health Urs Luterbacher and Environment of the World Health Chairman of the Environmental Studies Organisation (WHO) Unit of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Ian Christoplos Senior Project Researcher of the Danish Pascal Peduzzi Institute for International Studies (DIIS) Head of the Early Warning Unit of the Global Resource Information Database Pierre Encontre (GRID – Europe) of the UN Environment Chief of Special Programmes of the Division Programme (UNEP) for Africa, Least Developed Countries and Special Programmes of the UN Conference Hansjoerg Strohmeyer on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Chief of the Policy Development and Studies Branch of the UN Office for the Coordination Anne Hammill of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Senior Researcher on Climate Change and Energy of the International Institute Farhana Yamin for Sustainable Development (IISD) Portfolio Manager of the Climate Change Division of the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) EDITORIAL TEAM Steering Group Co - Chairs Commons Consultants Ross Mountain Søren Peter Andreasen (Production Editor) Director General of DARA Jakob Mathias Wichmann Marc Limon Anne-Mette Steinmeier Counsellor of the Maldives Mission Peter Utzon Berg to the UN and other international Andreas Hastrup Clemmensen organizations in Geneva DARA Matthew McKinnon (Coordinating Editor) Lucía Fernández Suárez Geeta Uhl The Advisory Panel and Peer Review Committee members serve in their personal capacity providing input to the Climate Vulnerability Initiative that informs the development of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor. DARA is solely responsible for the final content of this report. CLIMATE VUL IN NUMBERS Nearly 1 MILLION CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVEN DEATHS* ESTIMATED EVERY SINGLE YEAR FROM 2030 IF ACTION IS NOT TAKEN Some CLIMATE DEATHS ESTIMATED OVER 5 MILLION THE NEXT TEN YEARS IN ABSENCE OF AN EFFECTIVE RESPONSE 350,000Already CLIMATE DEATHS ESTIMATED EACH YEAR TODAY Almost 80 % OF ALL CLIMATE DEATHS ARE REGISTERED ONLY AMONG CHILDREN LIVING IN SOUTH ASIA OR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Over 99 % OF ALL MORTALITY OCCURS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Close to PEOPLE ESTIMATED TO BE LIVING UNDER 10 MILLION THREAT FROM CLIMATE DRIVEN DESERTIFICATION BY 2030, UP FROM 2.5 MILLION TODAY *All estimated mortality statistics or deaths are representative of much wider harm. Every 100,000 deaths would normally indicate several million cases of illness or disability (DALYs), or people displaced, injured or in need of emergency assistance. NERABILITY 150Around BILLION IN LOSSES TO TODAY’S DOLLARS ECONOMY ESTIMATED TO BE CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE More than HALF OF THE TOTAL ECONOMIC LOSSES TAKE PLACE IN INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES More than 50 COUNTRIES ACUTELY VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE TODAY ARE IN URGENT MOST NEED OF SUPPORT Some 170 COUNTRIES -- OR MOST OF THE WORLD -- HAVE HIGH VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AT LEAST ONE KEY IMPACT AREA ALREADY TODAY Over HIGHLY EFFECTIVE MEASURES INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT ARE READILY 50 AVAILABLE TO LIMIT VIRTUALLY ALL HARM CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE -- JUST A GLIMPSE OF THE MANY MORE OPTIONS AVAILABLE Estimated figures are based on scientific research or expert assumptions in a world marked with uncertainty. The real numbers could be higher or lower. 6 | Climate Vulnerability Monitor PREFACE Climate change is the most urgent to climate change all around the world. to a low-carbon economy, based on challenge of our time. The future of the It shows how each country is vulnerable green technology and renewable environment and the life it supports in different ways -- some due to health energy, creates wealth, jobs and new rests on the decisions we take over reasons or extreme weather patterns, opportunities for progress. Many the coming years. This represents an and others as a result of economic countries of the Climate Vulnerable enormous responsibility on our shoulders, factors or because of land loss from Forum, despite having contributed little which is not only a burden -- but also a expanding deserts or rising sea-levels. to the climate change problem, are taking tremendous opportunity for us all. It explains why many nations at the the lead in creating this new future. The climate frontline feel the impacts of Maldives, for example, is working to Previous generations were not aware of climate change more intensely. And it become carbon neutral by 2020. Others the environmental impact of economic demonstrates how quickly vulnerability among us are pursuing similar pledges. development and the resource constraints is accelerating almost everywhere, so of our planet. We are. They did not have that ultimately climate change could the technology and the know-how to threaten the livelihoods, if not the pursue a different path to prosperity. We survival, of all nations and peoples. The THE MONITOR SENDS do. Our generation must seize this unique fate of the world is tied to the fate of the A STRONG SIGNAL OF moment to build a better, more equitable most vulnerable. and more sustainable world. If not, our CAUTION. BUT IT SENDS generation will carry a conscience that will Yet such an outcome is not inevitable. AN EQUALLY STRONG never be clear, from failing to act when we The Monitor sends a strong signal of had the chance. caution. But it sends an equally strong SIGNAL OF HOPE signal of hope. The Climate Vulnerability Monitor lays bare the sheer scale and breadth of This report identifies just how inexpensive the impacts we already face. It breaks it is to limit the majority of the negative The Monitor was built to better identify ground in pinpointing our vulnerabilities impacts of climate change seen today, the needs of communities facing serious from the effects of the most violent climate impacts and to establish a storms and floods, to epidemics, severe firmer understanding of the nature drought, desertification, and even of the climate crisis as it affects the THE CLIMATE rising seas. There are even existing world’s nations today