Setting and School Organisation Framework 2012 / 2013

M12266 SOF Cover_Layout 1 10/09/2012 10:57 Page 1

Children and Families

www.milton-keynes.gov.uk Contents

INTRODUCTION ...... 3 SECTION A: LEGAL AND NATIONAL CONTEXT ...... 4 A1 Early years education and childcare provision...... 4 A2 School provision ...... 5 A3 The 14-19 reforms and 16-19 provision...... 8 A4 Funding and land...... 9 A5 Provision for children with Special Educational Needs ...... 10 A6 Views of interested parties...... 11 A7 Rural schools...... 12 SECTION B: LOCAL STRATEGIC CONTEXT...... 13 SECTION C: THE CONTEXT OF MILTON KEYNES...... 15 C1 The population of Milton Keynes ...... 15 C2 Organisation of early years education and childcare provision...... 17 C3 The organisation of school places ...... 20 C4 The changing diversity of school provision...... 21 C5 The historical demand for school places ...... 22 C6 Meeting parental preference...... 25 C7 Pupil mobility ...... 25 C8 Cross-border movement...... 26 C9 Securing places for children with Special Educational Needs ...... 27 C10 Ethnic groups ...... 30 C11 Gender balance...... 31 C12 Excluded pupils ...... 31 C13 Education other than in schools ...... 33 C14 Provision for the education of looked after children...... 33 SECTION D: FUTURE DEMAND FOR PLACES ...... 35 D1 Early years education and childcare provision ...... 35 D2 The primary school sector ...... 37 D3 The secondary school sector...... 39 D4 The special school sector ...... 40 D5 Future housing ...... 41 SECTION E: MEETING FUTURE DEMAND FOR CHILDCARE, EARLY EDUCATION AND SCHOOL PLACES ...... 43 E1 Principles for addressing demand for early education and childcare provision...... 43 E2 Principles for addressing demand for new school places ...... 44 E3 Principles for new primary school provision...... 45 E4 Principles for new secondary school provision ...... 45 E5 Capital funding to support the provision of new school places ...... 46 E6 Planning to meet the demand...... 47

ANNEX A Housing sites planned from 2012 with projected number of additional pupils per year group 55 ANNEX B Planned new school place provision 56 ANNEX C Projected demand by liaison group 57

Introduction

Welcome to the new edition of the Setting and School Organisation Framework 2012/13.

This document seeks to outline Milton Keynes Council’s approach to managing settings and school organisation, in terms of:

The statutory requirements placed on the authority The context of provision in Milton Keynes The process for assessing the demand for future provision, and Providing an outline of the future shape of settings and school organisation.

This helps to form the basis of the council’s capital investment programme as well as providing a foundation for dialogue with elected members, senior officers, school leaders and developers.

The effective and efficient management of the supply of school places is fundamental to raising children and young people’s achievement. The council’s ambition is to have the right number of schools, which are educationally and financially viable, of the right size and in the right locations. In Milton Keynes this is a particularly significant challenge as we have to manage near constant rising demand in the context of the government’s agenda for increasing school autonomy.

We are committed to the principle of continuous improvement and always welcome comments. In order to inform the next edition of the School Organisation Framework (scheduled for publication in August 2013) we will be pleased to receive comments on the document until the end of December 2012.

Marie Denny School Organisation and Planning Manager Milton Keynes Council

Section A: Legal and National Context

The organisation of both settings and schools sits within an extensive legal framework, highlights of which are given below along with a brief synopsis of their national context.

A1 Early years education and childcare provision

A1.1 Childcare Act 2006 (including Education Act 2011 Amendments)

The sufficiency of high quality childcare provision forms an integral part of the national strategy to alleviate child poverty and assist economic regeneration. The Childcare Act 2006 is a significant piece of legislation in terms of the professional nature of childcare provision and sets out the role of the local authority (LA) as a strategic market manager. The Education Act 2011 (EA 2011) sets out a number of minor amendments to this.

Key principles of the Acts are:

LAs and partners have to work together to improve outcomes of all children up to the age of five, reducing inequalities by ensuring integration of early childhood services The LA is the strategic lead for planning, supporting and commissioning childcare, and must assess the sufficiency of childcare provision LAs have a duty to secure sufficient childcare for working parents LAs have a duty to secure early years provision free of charge in accordance with regulations:

Equivalent of 570 hours per year for children from the beginning of the term following their third birthday until statutory school age From 2013 this will include 570 hours per year for the 20% most disadvantaged children aged two From 2014 this will be extended to include provision for the 40% most disadvantaged children aged two

The introduction of the Early Years Foundation Stage framework supporting providers in delivering high quality early education and care for children from birth to five.

A2 School provision

Since 2010 two pieces of legislation have had a major impact on the relationship between a LA and a school and how new school places can be commissioned: the Academies Act 2010 (AA 2010) and the EA 2011.

A2.1 Academies Act 2010

The AA 2010 enables schools to become academies via a new process that does not force the existing organisation to close. There are two distinctly different routes for schools to become academies. High performing schools can ‘convert’ to academy by choice as a result of a resolution of the governing body that the Secretary of State subsequently approves. Schools with a history of underperformance can be instructed to become ‘sponsored’ academies because the Secretary of State decides to make an Academy Order. The EA 2011 has amended the AA 2010 and these amendments include:

16–19 academies can be established Alternative provision academies can be established Academies are no longer required to have a specialism.

An academy is an independent publicly funded school that needs to satisfy the criteria in the Act and meet the obligations in its funding agreement.

The Act also provides for the creation of free schools. Proposers wishing to open a school can apply directly to the Secretary of State to do so. They are independent state funded schools. Proposals are likely to come forward where interested groups feel there is unmet parental demand. There is a detailed scrutiny process carried out by central government before approval is given.

A2.2 Education Act 2011

Historically, Section 14(1) of the Education Act 1996 (EA 1996) placed a legal duty on LAs to secure sufficient primary and secondary school places. This still stands. The Education and Inspections Act 2006 (EIA 2006) then set out a new process for establishing new schools via a competition. These sections of the EIA 2006, (6A, 7, 9, and 11) have recently been amended by Section 37 of the Education Act 2011, which put in place a requirement to give precedence to academies when new school proposals are brought forward.

A2.3 Increasing diversity

There is an increasing range of potential providers and arrangements in line with the implementation of the AA 2010 and the EA 2011. These include:

Academies: both sponsored and conversion Alternative provision Collaborative arrangements Community schools Faith provision: via an academy, free school, voluntary aided or voluntary controlled school Foundation schools Free schools Pupil Referral Units Special schools.

Special schools, Pupil Referral Units and alternative provision may be via the maintained sector, academies or free schools.

Collaboration continues to be through partnership arrangements, academy chains, multi school trusts or federations.

Federation describes a variety of collaborative arrangements between schools. Under the Education Act 2002 'federation' means one governing body over two or more schools. Colloquially this is often referred to as a 'hard' federation. Where schools retain their own governing bodies but share

some governance, (possibly formalised into a committee with delegated powers under the Education Act 2002), the arrangement tends to be known as a 'soft' federation, although it is really a collaborative arrangement.

Voluntary aided and foundation schools are maintained schools where the governing body has greater powers, being the employer, admissions authority and land owner. This is in contrast with community schools where these roles are the responsibility of the LA. Voluntary aided and foundation schools may have links with other bodies. For example, a voluntary aided school will usually be linked to a diocese which will appoint some members of the governing body.

Trust schools, introduced in the ElA 2006 and a type of foundation school, enable individual or groups of schools to form close working relationships with external partners to bring expertise and wider knowledge to the governance and strategic direction of the school(s) concerned. This partnership is formed using the legal framework of a trust.

A2.4 Admission arrangements

The category of a school determines the responsibility for admissions. For community and voluntary controlled schools it is the LA. For all other categories of maintained school, an academy or free school it is the governing body/academy trust. Whoever is responsible for admissions is known as the admissions authority for that particular school.

By law, all maintained schools and academies have to comply with the Admissions Code published by the DfE when determining and applying their Admissions Criteria. The LA has a further role in that it currently coordinates all primary and secondary admissions (not including years 12 and 13) for all admission authorities.

A new Admissions Code came into force on 1 February 2012 giving all admission authorities the ability to admit over their Planned Admission Number (PAN) without LA consent. Admission authorities can formally increase their PAN without consultation, but must notify the LA.

A2.5 Travel and accessibility

Many national policies promote sustainable travel such as walking and cycling and the reduction of car use. This is significant for those deciding school organisation issues. Changes to schools or the creation of new schools should not result in unreasonably long journeys, increased transport costs or negatively impact on children due to unsuitable walking or cycling routes.

The LA is required to provide free transport to school in prescribed circumstances, and low income families may qualify for free school transport.

A3 The 14-19 reforms and 16-19 provision

Government policy for 14-19 year olds has undergone considerable revisions since the coalition government came to power in 2010. Changes have been made to Post-16 funding methodology and mechanisms. These were set out in the 16-19 Funding Statement and apply to the 2011/12 and subsequent funding cycles. The Education Bill 2011 repealed the diploma entitlement for 16-18 year olds and for Key Stage 4.

In April 2012, a new executive agency of the Department for Education, the Education Funding Agency (EFA) came into being. The EFA brings together the Young People’s Learning Agency, Partnerships for Schools and the maintained schools funding division of the Department for Education. The EFA’s principal responsibilities are:

To provide funding for the education of pupils in academies

To distribute the Dedicated Schools Grant for the education of pupils up to age 16 in local authority maintained schools

To provide funding for all 16-19 education and training

To provide funding for learners with learning difficulties and/or disabilities aged 16-24

To support the delivery of capital programmes for schools, academies, Free Schools and sixth-form colleges.

Under Sections 15A and 18A of the EA 1996 (as inserted by the Apprenticeships Skills Children and Learning Act 2009), LAs continue to have a duty to secure sufficient suitable education and training opportunities to meet the reasonable needs of all young people in their area.

Part 1 of Education and Skills Act (ESA) 2008 places a duty on young people to participate in education and training until the age of 18 and is commonly known as 'Raising the Participation Age' (RPA). The current legislation requires that by 2013 all 17 year olds, and by 2015, all young people aged 18, are expected to be engaged in education, employment or training. Government did not seek to change this requirement in the Education Bill 2011, but has stated that it intends to delay enforcement.

A4 Funding and land

Capital funding to build, extend or improve schools comes from a variety of sources. Central government formulaic funding is allocated to LAs and schools. As long as the expenditure is for capital projects, (which includes IT), schools can determine how to spend their allocation (‘Devolved Formula Capital’) to best meet their needs. LAs receive funding to cover new places (‘Basic Need’) and funding to support refurbishment or improvement (‘Maintenance’). A diocese can provide funding to voluntary aided or voluntary controlled schools. Academies and free schools receive their funding from the EFA, with the exception of ‘Basic Need’, which is provided to LAs to plan and implement the provision of new places in its area.

The recommendations of the Independent Review of Education Capital by Sebastian James (James Review) were published in April 2011. The purpose of the review was to consider the DfE’s existing capital expenditure and make recommendations on the future delivery models for capital investment for 2011–12 onwards. The proposals focused on changes to how funding is provided, how it is allocated between organisations, what it should be used for and how new school buildings are commissioned. The recommendations also propose specific maintenance obligations.

The government has responded by accepting the review's main recommendations in principle. A consultation took place in late 2011 but as yet the government has not made a more detailed response to the James Review.

LAs are expected to negotiate contributions from developers where new housing will mean that additional school places are required. Those contributions could be any or a combination of the following: finance, land or buildings. Prudential borrowing and Private Finance Initiatives are other possibilities.

How much land a school requires will depend on its size, the ages of pupils to be served and the type of provision (mainstream or special). Government design guides and current legislation provide a minimum standard to be met in terms of building requirements and accessibility to playing field space. The James Review has recommended that the current regulations and guidance are revised and that a single set of regulations applies to all schools, whether maintained or independent.

Where new provision is needed the LA will usually secure an appropriate site, which could be an existing building. Compulsory Purchase powers can also be used for this purpose. School land is usually freehold but can be leasehold if the lease is long enough to provide sufficient security and the terms are compatible with education legislation. Ownership of a school site will depend on the category of school. Whilst the Secretary of State's consent is required for the disposal of school playing fields, the disposal of other school land is more straightforward. The AA 2010 and EA 2011 cover aspects to do with transferring and securing sites for academies and free schools.

A5 Provision for children with Special Educational Needs

Legally, a child is defined as having Special Educational Needs (SEN) if he or she has a learning difficulty which calls for special educational provision to be made. They include those whose learning difficulties are less apparent,

and emotionally vulnerable children. Many school children may need special educational help at some stage in their school careers.

Provision for children with SEN can be in mainstream or special provision, dependent upon the level of need. Some places in mainstream may be specifically reserved for pupils with particular needs, whilst special schools only cater for pupils with a statement of special educational needs. Where school organisation decisions involve the planning, commissioning or possible change to specifically reserved provision, precise and detailed criteria must be met. These include parental preferences for particular styles of provision or settings, the range of provision and collaborative arrangements between schools.

A6 Views of interested parties

Consultation is a major part of the legal process for school organisation proposals for all maintained schools. This helps to inform proposals and ensures that a wide range of views are represented. Consultation is not prescribed in terms of its nature or length. However, a proposer (normally the LA but sometimes the governing body) must show that the appropriate groups of people have received the relevant information and that the information clearly explains what is being suggested so that someone can make an informed response. A decision is then taken regarding whether a statutory proposal should be published following which there is a further period when comments and representations can be made. All views must then be taken into account by the decision maker (normally the LA, but the School Adjudicator if the LA fails to make a decision within two months of the end of the statutory representation period).

If a school wants to become an academy it is required to consult, but there is no prescription about this process. An academy must consult if it wishes to make an alteration to its provision or expand, but again the nature and length of the process is not prescribed in law. Final decisions about changes to academies are taken by the Secretary of State and not the council.

A7 Rural schools

The government maintains a register of rural schools. There is a presumption against the closure of a rural school, be it primary or secondary. If a school is not on the register, interested parties can make representations that the school should be regarded as a rural school. This presumption does not prohibit the closure of a rural school but means that the case for closure must be strong and the proposals clearly in the best interests of educational provision in the area. Alternatives to school closure should be considered, such as federation, which could increase a rural school's viability.

Section B: Local Strategic Context

The Corporate Plan 2012-16 sets out the vision for Milton Keynes Council, which is:

To ensure Milton Keynes is the premier 'can do' place of the 21st century. The city, together with the rural parts of our borough, will continue to be a wonderful place to live, work, learn, shop and relax

That people and firms will want to move here and stay here, and visitors will want to come here and come back often. Milton Keynes will have a compelling offer that includes rising standards of living and a safe and good quality of life for all

To create homes and neighbourhoods in new areas or through regeneration that help make our compelling offer a reality

That our residents have access to all the services they need and have the support to access opportunities and enjoy a healthy and good quality of life

Above all we must ensure that Milton Keynes offers job and career opportunities for all through an enterprising and thriving economy.

The Children and Families Service Plan 2012/13 seeks to support the delivery of this vision via four key priorities:

1. Developing and maintaining strong local partnerships to improve outcomes for children and young people

2. Challenging schools, settings and services to be outstanding, enabling them to take the lead in driving up standards and safeguarding children and only intervening when outcomes are not good enough

3. Developing and maintaining effective services and interventions that enable those children and young people who face barriers to participate to successfully overcome them

4. Developing and maintaining effective services and interventions that prevent the most vulnerable children and young people in our community from experiencing additional difficulties and prevent them from suffering significant harm.

In order to deliver these prioritises it will be vital to enhance the sufficiency and sustainability of the local setting and school place market to address the challenge of increasing numbers of children and young people.

Section C: The context of Milton Keynes

Milton Keynes was designated as a New Town in 1967. Since then, the borough has grown from a collection of small towns and villages to a significant sub-regional centre. It is considered as one of the fastest growing sub-regions in Europe and is a key focus for growth in the south east region outside London. The surrounding rural area has attractive countryside, with a range of villages and small towns which provide contrast to the more urban areas.

The submitted revised Core Strategy (October 2010) takes account of the revocation of the regional spatial strategies and seeks to deliver 1,750 homes per annum (around 26,700 in total by 2026). Within the urban area some 23,400 of the total number of homes required already have the benefit of planning permission or are allocated for development.

Milton Keynes is one of the core local authorities at the heart of the emerging South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP). SEMLEP is a partnership that involves business, community groups and local authorities from around the region in order to support inward investment and encourage the creation of new jobs. SEMLEP covers a population of around 1.6 million people and 64,000 businesses which together account for 3.2% of the English economy and have strong prospects for future growth.

C1 The population of Milton Keynes

Between 2001 and 2011 Milton Keynes was the seventh fastest growing area in the UK. The population has quadrupled between its designated New Town status in 1967 (60,000) and 2011 (248,800). The scale and pace of development is unique in the UK, with around 2,500 to 3,000 new residents welcomed each year. Milton Keynes will continue to grow and could have around 300,000 residents by 2026 based on the latest development plans.

Much of the historical population growth in Milton Keynes has been caused by a large increase in the number of homes in. However, the 2011 Census has highlighted a national trend of increasing births in the existing demographic. This is supported by information received from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which shows a continued upward trend in the birth rate in Milton Keynes over recent years, despite a significant downturn in the housing market.

Figure C1 demonstrates the increase in births over recent years.

Live births for Milton Keynes 4100

3900 3820 3979 3659 3809 3700 3455 Number 3500 of births 3302 3236 3300

3100

2900

2700

2500 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Year

Figure C1: The increase in live births for Milton Keynes, 2004/5 to 2010/11 (Source: ONS Live Birth data July 2012)

Ambitious new housing targets have resulted in the completion of more than 1,100 new homes every year since 2001/02. By 2006/07 this had risen to around 1,700 and during 2007/08, over 2,300 new dwellings were completed, exceeding the target of 1,900. However, only 1,306 completions were recorded for 2010/2011. Reflecting a reduced level of growth from previous estimates due to the current housing market conditions, around 14,000 homes are anticipated to be built in the borough between 2011 and 2018.

Housing trajectory targets vs actual completions

2500

2000

1500 Actual Target

Dwellings 1000

500

0 2001/2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 Year of build

Figure C2: House build targets and actual build completions compared (2001 - 2011)

C2 Organisation of early years education and childcare provision

The local early years education and childcare market consists of private, voluntary and independent (PVI) organisations that operate from a variety of different premises (including purpose built facilities, shared community buildings, schools, churches, converted offices and domestic premises). There are also a number of nursery schools and classes within schools and academies. The services offered by these providers differ widely according to a number of factors such as premises restrictions, the needs and demands of the local community, and the individual organisations aims and values. The current supply of childcare provision throughout the borough (as categorised within the Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 2012) is as follows:

Number of Registered Occupancy Provider Type Providers Places Rate Breakfast Club 34 1,440 84% Childminder 421 2,119 67% Full Day Nursery / Childcare on 50 2,809 72% Domestic Premises Holiday Scheme 36 1,848 Maintained Nursery Schools / 25 1,652 95% Classes Nursery Units of Independent 6 464 84% Schools Out of School Care 48 2,187 84% Pre-School Playgroup / Private 59 2,736 85% Nursery Total 679 15,255 Figure C3: Providers of childcare (March 2012)

C 2.1 Free early education entitlement

Access to high quality early years education has been seen by successive governments as a major tool in the strategy to alleviate poverty. Its primary objective is to prevent intergenerational poverty. The amount of free early education and the number of children able to access this has therefore increased nationally over the past 10 years.

In Milton Keynes a Child Poverty Commission was formed in 2011 to gain a better understanding of the nature of poverty locally. Its report (Child Poverty in Milton Keynes) highlighted that improving the quality and quantity of childcare and early education on offer in the poorest areas is vital to improving school readiness and enabling employment.

The current government prescription for free early years education equates to 15 hours per week, for 38 weeks of the year for each child, commencing from the term after their third birthday until they reach statutory school age; although there is flexibility in the way that parents can access this entitlement. Eligibility is being extended from 2013 to include the 20% most disadvantaged two year olds and it is anticipated that up to 40% of all two year olds will be eligible by 2014.

Children purely seeking their free entitlement to early education will typically access this at a local sessional care provider. However, children are also able to access their entitlement at a day nursery provision or at a number of childminders, although this is generally offered as part of a larger day care package for working parents. Some day nurseries and childminders offer a limited number of sessional care only places but this is not always financially viable and is therefore subject to market fluctuations.

Childcare sufficiency data recorded between 2011 and 2012 indicates that on average 80% of eligible children aged three and four (who do not attend a full time school place) access their entitlement at a sessional care only provision.

C2.2 Working parents

The removal of childcare issues as a barrier to employment is another major tool used by successive governments to try to reduce the levels of child poverty. As a result of the local geography and transport systems, working parents are generally able to access a variety of care options across the borough depending on their particular preferences and circumstances.

The options for children aged under five typically consist of either a full day nursery or a childminder. Many sessional care providers also allow parents to purchase sessions in addition to their free entitlement which can therefore be used to enable a parent to work (although this is subject to availability and may consist of limited hours). Many parents choose to use a mixture of these options as well as informal childcare (such as relatives).

School wrap around care, comprised of breakfast and after school clubs together with holiday care clubs for school aged children, is often located on school sites and either run by the school, an external private or voluntary provider, who will link with a school or a number of schools. By either operating or linking with childcare provision of this nature, a school can demonstrate it is meeting the needs of its parents.

The complex make up of the childcare market, the wide and varied demand from parents and the ability for parents to pick and choose a selection of

different provisions means that the use of childcare provision and places varies significantly. The mapping and analysis of childcare provision is therefore a complex process which cross references population estimates, social economic data and reported occupancy rates, as well as using data collected from parental surveys and feedback, to indicate demand for provision compared to the relative supply (please refer to the Childcare Sufficiency Assessment for detailed methodology).

C3 The organisation of school places

In January 2012 Milton Keynes had 110 schools, organised as follows: Phase Age-range Number Nursery 3 year olds only 2 Infant Reception to Year 2 32 Junior Year 3 to Year 6 14 Primary Reception to Year 6 44 Secondary Year 7 to Year 13 12 Special Mixed 6 Total 110 Figure C4: School provision

All new primary phase provision has been secured via all-through primary schools (eight since 2002), amalgamations of infant and junior schools (four since 2002), and from the extension in age range of infant schools to become all-through primary schools (three since 2002). There are currently two further amalgamations due for September 2012, which will result in two more all-through primary schools and therefore further reductions in infant and junior schools. However, there is no presumption that all infant and junior schools will become primary schools. Amalgamation will, however, be strongly considered if:

a) the quality of existing provision is of cause for concern and amalgamation is considered to be an appropriate tool to secure school improvement, and / or b) both governing bodies of the existing schools are supportive of the change and there is a formally confirmed change in the leadership of one or both schools that will result in the recruitment of a new headteacher.

Two new secondary schools have also opened since 2002. One secondary school has closed and was replaced by an academy. Between 2002 and 2011 school categories have changed as follows:

Date Nursery Infant Junior Primary Secondary Special Total 2002 2 38 18 30 10 6 104 2003 2 38 18 32 10 6 106 2004 2 37 17 35 10 6 107 2005 2 35 17 39 12 6 111 2006 2 35 17 39 12 6 111 2007 2 34 16 40 12 6 110 2008 2 33 15 41 12 6 109 2009 2 32 14 43 12 6 109 2010 2 32 14 44 12 6 110 2011 2 32 14 44 12 6 110 2012 2 32 13 44 12 6 110 Figure C5: Changes in school types, 2002 to January 2012

C4 The changing diversity of school provision

All Milton Keynes schools are co-educational, that is, admitting both boys and girls. Milton Keynes has a range of schools including those with a religious character as well as non-denominational schools. Currently, there are five Roman Catholic voluntary aided primary schools and one Roman Catholic secondary school, two Church of England voluntary aided and seven Church of England voluntary controlled schools in the primary phase (but no Church of England secondary school) and one ecumenical voluntary aided primary school.

The 110 schools also cover a diverse range of categories as follows:

Schools by category 70 Special 5 Secondary 60 Primary Nursery 50

30 57

20 1 3 10 1 8 11 7 8 7 0 2 Community Voluntary Voluntary Aided Foundation Academy Controlled Category

Figure C6: Schools by category in Milton Keynes (as planned for September 2012)

The LA has worked with its secondary schools in developing a co-ordinated and planned approach to seeking specialist status. All twelve schools have specialist status, covering areas such as Technology, Sports, Modern Foreign Languages, Science, Humanities, Mathematics and Computing, and Business and Enterprise.

C5 The historical demand for school places

The growth of Milton Keynes has inevitably led to an increase in the demand for school places. For example, 2,787 children started mainstream school for the first time in 2003, which had increased to 3,451 by January 2012, an increase of 24%. Similar increases have occurred in the secondary population, leading to a 9.5% increase in the numbers of primary and secondary children in local mainstream schools (excluding post -16) between 2003 and 2012, from 32,949 to 36,078.

Total number of pupils for primary and secondary mainstream schools

37000 36076 36000 35355

35000 34667 34373 34178 34000 33290 32949 32955 Pupils 33000 32644 32601

32000

31000

30000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year

Figure C7: Primary and secondary mainstream pupils, 2003 to 2012 (excluding post -16)

This growth does not apply equally to all year groups, as illustrated by the difference in the number of pupils in each year group shown in Figure C8. The new intake of pupils in Reception of 3,451 compared with a Year 11 population of 2,702 means that there was a need to deliver 28% more places for the new intake year than for Year 11, and varying levels of places for all years in between. This is not only a school place planning challenge, but also challenges delivery models for those services required to support the pupil population, such as children’s social care.

Number of Pupils per year group (January 2012) 3500 3451

3400 3316 3300 3236

3200 3154

3100 3031

3000 2944 2919 2900 2872 2849 2824 2789 Number ofPupils Number 2800 2702 2700

2600

2500 R1234567891011 Year Group

Figure C8: Number of pupils in each year group

All secondary schools in Milton Keynes currently have post 16 provision. The numbers in this provision have also increased, from 2,052 in 2003 to 3,120 in 2012, an increase of 52%.

Growth in the total number of post 16 pupils

3500 3120 3019 2907 3000 2585 2504 2500 2278 2326 2336 2163 2052 2000

Pupils 1500

1000

500

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year

Figure C9: Post 16 mainstream pupils, 2003 to 2012

C6 Meeting parental preference

Despite the significant expansion and the continual demand for new places, a high percentage of Milton Keynes children and young people receive a place in their first preference school. For September 2012, approximately 89% of children starting school for the first time received a place at their first preference infant or primary school, while 92% was achieved for those transferring to junior or primary schools in Year 3.

At secondary level, there has been an increasing trend in young people’s ability to receive a place at their first preference school rising from 84% in 2008 to 89% in 2012. The national rate was 85% in 2012.

C7 Pupil mobility

Pupil mobility refers to the total movement of pupils in and out of schools at times other than the normal times for changing schools. It is measured by comparing the total number of joiners and leavers that occur between the January School Census in one year and the next, as a percentage of the overall number on roll. In Milton Keynes, this type of mobility is caused by a number of factors. As new housing is built, families move more frequently within the city. Mobility also occurs when families are housed temporarily, pending allocation of permanent accommodation. Some schools regularly experience unusually high rates of pupil mobility over short periods of time. For example, between January 2011 and 2012, the ten primary phase schools with the highest mobility levels saw between 30.8% and 42.5% of their pupils change against a local authority average of 18.1% and a range of 0% to 42.5%.

New Children Total % School children leaving change NOR Mobility 1 16 21 37 87 42.5 2 38 48 86 216 39.8 3 26 18 44 127 34.6 4 23 30 53 153 34.6 5 52 47 99 286 34.6 6 21 14 35 106 33.0 7 18 10 28 88 31.8 8 24 21 45 143 31.5 9 2 3 5 16 31.3 10 11 17 28 91 30.8 Figure C10: Mobility rates in Milton Keynes – top 10 ranked primary schools

Mobility within the secondary phase is significantly less, ranging from 2.2% to 18.7% in 2012, averaging 7.1% across all schools.

C8 Cross-border movement

Parental choice is such that Milton Keynes experiences significant levels of cross-border movement, both in and out the borough. The number of children and young people living in Milton Keynes but attending schools elsewhere is as follows:

Central Phase Bedford Bucks Beds Herts London Northants Total Primary 14 293 282 3 99 691 Secondary 39 507 303 5 178 1032 Total 53 800 585 5 3 277 1723 Figure C11: Pupils living in Milton Keynes attending other LA schools (excludes post 16) (as at January 2011)

This means that the total pupil population in Milton Keynes would increase by 5% if these pupils were educated within the borough; this percentage has not changed since 2009.

In contrast, the number of children living outside Milton Keynes but educated in Milton Keynes schools is 371. This is only 22% of those being educated elsewhere, thus making Milton Keynes a net exporter of pupils.

Central Phase Bedford Bucks Beds Herts Northants Total Primary 9 33 33 3 117 195 Secondary 9 65 27 75 176 Total 18 98 60 3 192 371 Figure C12: Pupils attending Milton Keynes schools and living in other LAs

If these pupils were not educated in Milton Keynes schools then the total Milton Keynes school population would decrease by approximately 1%; this percentage has not changed since 2009.

C9 Securing places for children with Special Educational Needs

When a child is identified with a Special Educational Need (SEN), interventions are devised that are additional to, or different from, those provided as part of the school or setting’s usual curriculum offer and strategies. There are three stages to the provision for SEN, ranging from early years or school action (addressed within the school or setting), action plus (which includes access to external support services) and statement (which provides additional resource). Children in these three stages are referred to as having learning difficulties and disabilities (LDD). The number of LDD children in Milton Keynes schools is as follows:

0-5 Years (Nursery Key Stage 1 Key Stage 2 and Reception) Category Number % Number % Number % School or Early 172 3.6 647 9.8 1513 12.5 Years Action School or Early 173 3.6 373 5.7 1104 9.1 Years Action Plus SEN Statements 46 0.9 115 1.8 357 2.9 Total Registered 391 8.1 1135 17.2 2974 24.5 LDD Other Pupils 4429 91.9 5453 82.8 9166 75.5 Total Pupils 4820 100 6588 100 12140 100 Figure C13: Children (0-5, KS1 & KS2) with LDD, January 2012

Key Stage 3 Key Stage 4 Post 16 Category Number % Number % Number % School or Early Years 1005 11.5 688 12.2 206 6.4 Action School or Early Years 727 8.3 395 7.0 99 3.1 Action Plus SEN Statements 363 4.2 225 4.0 125 3.9 Total Registered LDD 2095 24.0 1308 23.2 430 13.4 Other Pupils 6650 76.0 4333 76.8 2785 86.6 Total Pupils 8745 100 5641 100 3215 100 Figure C14: Children (KS3, KS4 & KS5) with LDD, January 2012

The needs of children and young people with statements of Special Education Needs (SEN) are met through a combination of mainstream, mainstream with enhanced resources ('departments'), and special school provision. As at January 2012 the needs of children with statements were met in the following way:

Stage Mainstream Special Total 0 – 5 Years 24 22 46 Key Stage 1 77 38 115 Key Stage 2 204 153 357 Key Stage 3 191 172 363 Key Stage 4 105 120 225 16+ Years 18 107 125 Total 619 612 1231 Figure C15: Children with statements of SEN, January 2012

There are six special schools in Milton Keynes as follows: School Age Range Year Group Specialism Romans Field 8 to 13 Year 3 to 8 Behaviour, emotional and social difficulties Slated Row 4 to 19 Year R to 14 Moderate to complex learning difficulties Stephenson 13 to 19 Year 8 to 14 Behaviour, emotional and Academy social difficulties The Redway 2 to 19 Year N to 14 Severe and profound multiple learning difficulties The Walnuts 4 to 19 Year R to 14 Severe social communication difficulties White Spire 8 to 19 Year 3 to 14 Moderate to complex learning difficulties Figure C16: Milton Keynes special schools

The number of children and young people educated within the special school provision as at January 2012 was as follows: Year Romans Slated Stephenson The The White Group Field Row Academy Redway Walnuts Spire Nursery 4 R 3 9 8 1 1 4 11 2 1 4 8 9 3 4 10 8 11 1 4 5 8 5 14 4 5 12 9 3 10 9 6 10 9 5 8 9 7 11 14 7 12 7 8 7 18 4 8 22 9 17 12 5 10 15 10 16 8 4 15 17 11 20 6 8 5 21 12 13 6 8 9 13 20 10 11 7 14 5 3 5 9 Total 50 167 26 93 145 130 Figure C17: Numbers of children in Milton Keynes special schools (January 2012)

As at March 2012, there were a total of 611 pupils attending the six special schools. Of that total, 583 lived in Milton Keynes and 28 lived in other local authority areas. Conversely, 64 pupils lived in Milton Keynes but attended special school provision in other local authority areas.

When comparing these figures to the total number of children and young people across Milton Keynes it can be seen that 0.6% of children are educated in special school provision when first starting school and this rises at each transition point until reaching 2% of the pupil population in Milton Keynes schools by Year 9.

School Year R Year 3 Year 7 Year 9 Romans Field 4 11 Slated Row 3 10 14 17 Stephenson Academy 12 The Redway 9 8 7 5 The Walnuts 8 11 12 10 White Spire 1 7 15 Total 20 34 51 59 Total in MK 3468 3179 2841 2908 Proportion % 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.0 Figure C18: Proportion of children educated in Milton Keynes special schools.

C10 Ethnic groups

Milton Keynes, Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) groups, which include White Irish and White Other, represent 34.1% of pupils. This compares with the 2005 figure of 20.7%.

36.4% of pupils of primary age come from minority ethnic groups compared to 29.3% of those of secondary school age. 32.7% of those in post 16 education are in BME groups.

Unclassified Number of Year Group White UK % BME % % Pupils Nursery 45.9 38.4 15.7 1345 R 56.6 40.9 2.5 3475 1 59.2 39.2 1.6 3329 2 61.2 37.3 1.5 3264 3 60.7 38.2 1.1 3175 4 63.6 35.0 1.4 3073 5 64.6 34.2 1.1 2922 6 65.2 34.0 0.7 2984 7 68.9 30.1 0.9 2852 8 70.1 28.7 1.3 2990 9 69.0 29.8 1.2 2931 10 68.6 30.4 1.0 2888 11 71.0 27.7 1.3 2870 12 62.5 34.6 2.9 1800 13 67.9 30.2 1.9 1367 14 62.3 34.4 3.3 61 Total 64.0 34.1 1.9 41326 Figure C19: Minority ethnic group pupils in Milton Keynes by year group

The breakdown of pupils by ethnic group for 2005 and 2012 is as follows:

Ethnic Group 2005 2012 Difference % Difference White British 28227 26462 -1765 -6% White Other 1159 1975 816 70% Mixed 1514 2457 943 62% Indian 788 1132 344 44% Pakistani 656 1171 515 79% Bangladeshi 469 620 151 32% Asian Other 349 1165 816 234% Black African 1430 3796 2366 165% Black Caribbean 273 390 117 43% Black Other 266 714 448 168% Chinese 304 261 -43 -14% Any Other Group 299 403 104 35% Refuse / Unknown 607 780 173 29% Total 35734 40546 4812 13% Figure C20: Pupils by ethnic groups

Comparing the statistics between 2005 and 2012, the Black African group had the largest increase in numbers (2366 extra pupils, an increase of 166%). Asian Other Group had the highest growth rate of 234%. White British had the highest decrease in numbers (a reduction of 1765 pupils).

C11 Gender balance

There are slightly more boys than girls in Milton Keynes schools, including special schools and nurseries.

Gender 2012 Pupils Percent Boys 20970 51% Girls 20179 49% Total 41149 100% Figure C21: Gender balance in Milton Keynes schools, January 2012

C12 Excluded pupils

The LA is responsible for ensuring that all permanently excluded pupils receive full-time education. Unless and until the pupil is permanently excluded, he or she remains on the school roll and therefore the school's responsibility. In the primary phase, when pupils are at risk of permanent exclusion, parents and schools work with the Admissions Team and Primary

Behaviour Support Team or the Special Educational Needs and Disability Team (SENDIS). These specialist teams will support pupils to have their needs met within their mainstream school with additional support where necessary. The primary Pupil Referral Unit (PRU) supports up to 18 pupils who are at risk of exclusion or who are permanently excluded and awaiting a new school place. The provision is borough-wide offering fixed term placements with the intention of reintegrating pupils to mainstream settings, either returning to their previous school, a new school or to a more appropriate setting. The PRU provides support from day six for pupils receiving a permanent exclusion.

A number of secondary aged students who are not permanently excluded attend one of the three Personalised Education Centres (PECs) in Milton Keynes. They receive a personalised programme that may include placements with alternative education providers. Referrals are managed and monitored through the Alternative Education Panel for the Behaviour Partnership. The PECs serve a locality based group of schools in the north, centre and south of the borough. The programmes they provide engage pupils in relevant and appropriate education experiences before they return to mainstream schools or other specialist settings.

It is good practice not to permanently exclude pupils with a Statement of Special Educational Need. Where the school placement for these pupils has broken down, the SEN Casework team will commission education, often through an independent provider.

Between 2007 and 2010, from a total of approximately 40,000 pupils on roll across all Milton Keynes schools, the number of permanent exclusions was as follows:

Phase 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Primary 7 8 6 5 Secondary 32 10 11 9 Special 0 1 2 4 Total 39 19 19 18 Figure C22 Number of permanent exclusions by phase 2007 to 2010

C13 Education other than in schools

Of the 41,328 pupils on roll as at January 2012 across all phases including nursery, 41,151 (99.6%) were educated in Milton Keynes nursery, primary, secondary or special schools and 177 (0.4%) were educated in alternative provision. This does not include children educated at home who are not included on any school roll.

The relatively small percentage of children and young people who are not placed within mainstream provision may have their educational needs met within alternative settings. Primary aged pupils have access to the Primary PRU/short stay school (up to 18 places) and secondary aged pupils access PECs. The secondary PECs are commissioned by the Milton Keynes Behaviour Partnership and include the Central and South PEC, maintained by the local authority, the North PEC (an independent school) working with Christian Foundation and other providers. The partnership PEC arrangements cover approximately 220 places, delivering curriculum to meet individual needs. Further support is provided for those with additional educational needs arising from medical issues before they return to school. This separate provision, The Bridge, covers about 25 places at any one time plus an outreach service.

Parents can educate their children at home. The LA can make enquiries about the education being provided. Milton Keynes has a policy, 'Home Education’ that explains the relevant legal requirements relating to home education. As at January 2011 there were 105 children educated at home in Milton Keynes.

C14 Provision for the education of looked after children

As the corporate parent of children in care, the LA gives this group of children the highest priority. The Children's Act 2008 requires schools to pay particular attention to the needs of children in care. They receive the highest priority in admissions and schools provide the support which those children need to make progress. Children in care may have particular needs which can hinder good progress unless strategies are in place to support the child

in overcoming those needs. The Looked After Children Education Team is tasked and resourced to support their education, add value and ensure that every child in care has the learning opportunity to achieve their potential and overcome any difficulties. The team consists of a team manager, who has an educational background and is a qualified teacher, and three educational project workers who work directly with children and young people in schools and in foster care settings. The team offers a range of enhancement in the form of extra curricular activities and offers training to schools, foster carers, social workers and other professionals. In addition, specialist subject tutors are used to support children in study workshops and one to one sessions.

Each child in care has a Personal Education Plan (PEP) developed jointly by the school and the child's Social Worker which identifies the support which the child will need in order to make progress and meet identified targets. A named member of the Education Team will monitor the PEP and progress of each child in care and work with schools to identify any additional learning needs of the young person.

In May 2012 there were a total of 284 children in care (all ages) in Milton Keynes, of which 194 were of statutory school age.

Children in Care of Children in Care of School Provision Milton Keynes – in Milton Keynes – in Milton Keynes other LAs Primary mainstream 71 18 Primary special 3 1 Secondary mainstream 49 23 Secondary special 18* 10* Out of Education 1 0 Total 142 52 * Includes secure establishments and alternative provision Figure C23 Children in care in Milton Keynes schools, May 2012

Section D: Future demand for places

D1 Early years education and childcare provision

The number of children in the early years age group (birth to four year olds) is expected to grow from 18,730 in 2010 to 19,130 by 2026, an overall increase of 2%. The early years age group population is expected to peak in 2016 at 20,390 (9% growth from 2010).

Growth projections for the number of school age children (five to 16 year olds) indicate even greater growth between 2010 and 2026, from 26,630 children to 49,990 children, an anticipated overall increase of 35%.

Age Group 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 0-4 14,350 15,700 19,350 20,390 19,790 19,130 5-16 36,630 35,680 37,400 43,120 48,830 49,990 17-24 21,650 22,260 21,930 23,050 22,640 25,850 25-34 35,380 34,010 35,850 36,000 35,730 35,410 35-59 75,670 83,660 88,940 93,690 98,520 97,850 60-74 19,030 22,670 29,820 35,480 40,110 43,340 75+ 10,000 10,930 12,460 14,880 19,190 25,740 Total 212,710 224,920 245,750 266,600 284,800 297,310 Figure D1: Population growth by age in Milton Keynes up to 2026 (source: Mki Observatory – Population Bulletin 2011/12)

D1.1 Sessional care

As a result of the projected increases in the number of children aged three and four years old living in Milton Keynes, the emergence and extension of the two year old entitlement to early education, and the current economic climate, the demand for sessional care provision is anticipated to continue to increase significantly over the next few years.

2012 2013 2014 2015 Number of three hour sessional 4,388 4,388 4,388 4,388 care places at Ofsted registered organisations Places required 5,108 5,426 5,773 6,696 (at 95% Occupancy) Balance -720 -1,038 -1,385 -2,308 Figure D2: Indicative supply and demand of sessional care only provision (please refer to Childcare Sufficiency Assessment for methodology)

This indicates there is currently estimated to be a shortfall in the supply of sessional care only provision in Milton Keynes, which is anticipated to increase further if no additional sessional care places are commissioned over the next four years. These calculations are supported by the occupancy rates reported by sessional care only providers. Despite a 14% increase in the number of sessional care only places offered within Milton Keynes between February 2011 and February 2012, the reported occupancy rates have only decreased marginally (by 3%). In line with our expectations, detailed investigations show the reduction in the average occupancy rate is not evenly spread across the borough, but specific to areas where new places have recently been created and are becoming established. In addition to this, local calculations indicate that the free entitlement by eligible three and four year olds was accessed by only 89% of children in 2011.

D1.2 Full day care

Given that full day care provision primarily caters for working parents, the recent economic climate has significantly impacted upon demand. Despite the increasing population of children aged 0-4 living in Milton Keynes, the amount of day nursery provision has remained relatively static, yet the average overall reported occupancy rate has decreased by 10%. This decrease in the occupancy rate follows the national trend (source: NDNA Insight Report 2011 p.1).

Childcare sufficiency data recorded between 2011 and 2012 indicates that on average 20% of eligible children aged three and four (not attending a full time school place) access their entitlement at a day nursery provision. Assuming these children all claimed their entitlement at day nursery provision due to continuity of care (i.e. they were already accessing provision as part of a larger day care package), the potential number of children requiring a day nursery place can be predicted. Furthermore, by cross referencing occupancy rates with the estimated demand for day nursery provision, it is estimated that on average each child attending day nursery provision uses 0.5 of a full time equivalent day nursery place.

Projections of the indicative number of day nursery places required have been formulated using the above assumptions. The number of places required to satisfy this has been based on occupancy at 75%, to ensure there are sufficient vacant sessions to account for flexibility and fluctuations in demand, whilst ensuring financial viability.

2012 2013 2014 2015 Current Places 2,797 2,797 2,797 2,797 Potential places required 2,553 2,587 2,610 2,636 (at 75% Occupancy) Balance 244 210 187 160 Figure D3: Indicative demand and supply for day nursery provision.

It is therefore estimated that there will be a sufficient but diminishing supply of day nursery provision across Milton Keynes.

D1.3 School wrap around care

As with full day care, school wrap around care primarily caters for working parents. The supply of breakfast and after school club provision has remained relatively static over the past year, although the average occupancy rates appear to have increased slightly. It is however worth noting that the response rate to occupancy data requests from these providers was significantly less than from day nurseries (39% of breakfast and after school club providers as compared to 100% of day nurseries), so occupancy data for these provision types is potentially a less accurate reflection of the current market. The average occupancy levels reported by the providers who did respond indicate that provision is largely sufficient across Milton Keynes.

D2 The primary school sector

Live birth data provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) demonstrates a considerable increase in the number of children born in Milton Keynes and due to start school each year as follows:

To start % Annual Born between Live births Reception change Sep 2004 / Aug 2005 2009 3236 - Sep 2005 / Aug 2006 2010 3302 2.0 Sep 2006 / Aug 2007 2011 3455 4.6 Sep 2007 / Aug 2008 2012 3659 5.9 Sep 2008 / Aug 2009 2013 3820 4.4 Sep 2009 / Aug 2010 2014 3809 -0.3 Sep 2010 / Aug 2011 2015 3979 4.5 Figure D4: Live births in Milton Keynes

Not all children born in Milton Keynes will require a place in a Milton Keynes mainstream school. To determine the likely number of children requiring a mainstream school place in the future, a comparison can be made between historical birth data and the number of children who started mainstream schools in the Reception Year group over recent years to establish a retention rate as follows:

Born between Births Reception intake Retention rate Sep 2004 / Aug 2005 3236 3142 (Sep 2009) 97.1% Sep 2005 / Aug 2006 3302 3266 (Sep 2010) 98.9% Sep 2006 / Aug 2007 3455 3415 (Sep 2011) 98.8% Sept 2007 / Aug 2008 3659 3615* (Sept 2012) 98.8% Figure D5: Birth data against actual intake in Reception (*data taken in August 2012 and likely to increase before September)

The retention rate is therefore approximately 99%. This takes account of all factors which have applied in the period between when the children were born and when they started the Reception Year. Those being added to the group include those children who are on roll in Milton Keynes mainstream schools but who live in other local authority areas, children who move into existing Milton Keynes houses with their families, and also children who move into new housing developments in Milton Keynes. Those leaving the group include those children who live in Milton Keynes but who attend schools in other local authority areas, those who leave Milton Keynes altogether and also children who enrol in provision such as special schools, the private education sector and other alternative settings. The number of children due to start school in the Reception Year in forthcoming years can then be projected by applying the 99% retention rate.

A contingency of 3% is then added to provide some flexibility for those pupils who join over the academic year and a small error rate in the projected totals. This is lower than the 5-10% surplus previously proposed to be efficient by the Audit Commission, but is believed to be realistic in our context.

To start Reception in September Category 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Birth projections Actuals Projections Births at 99% 3622 3782 3771 3939 3978 4035 4061 3% contingency 109 113 113 118 119 121 122 Total demand 3731 3895 3884 4057 4097 4156 4183 Year R PAN 3568 3568 3568 3568 3568 3568 3568 Balance of places -163 -327 -316 -489 -529 -588 -615 Deficit % -4.6 -9.2 -8.9 -13.7 -14.8 -16.5 -17.2 Figure D6: Projections to start Reception against total PAN for Reception year.

This means that if no additional places were provided in Milton Keynes primary schools there would be a shortfall of over 16 forms of entry for children starting school for the first time by September 2015.

D3 The secondary school sector

In order to project the future demand for secondary places it is important to assess the number of children moving up from the primary sector who are likely to request a place within the Milton Keynes mainstream secondary sector. A trend can be established by comparing the number of children leaving Year 6 and joining Year 7 in September in each of the last five years.

Year January Year 6 September Year 7 Retention rate 2008 2882 2746 95.3% 2009 2885 2807 97.3% 2010 2965 2910 98.1% 2011 2817 2787 98.9% 2012 2991 2865* 95.8% Figure D7: Transition rates between Year 6 and Year 7 in Milton Keynes mainstream schools (source: January School Census & Sept admissions numbers) (*data taken in August 2012 and likely to increase before September)

This demonstrates that the transition rate between Year 6 and Year 7 has increased year on year since 2008. The latest accurate rate (98.9%) can be used to project future numbers using those children already in the primary school system. A contingency of 3% has then been added to provide some flexibility for those pupils who join over the academic year and a small error rate in the projected totals, as per the primary school projections.

Category 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year 7 projection 2915 2843 3001 3114 3204 3283 3416 3% contingency 87 85 90 93 96 98 102 Total demand 3002 2928 3091 3207 3300 3381 3518 Year 7 PAN in MK 3005 3005 3005 3005 3005 3005 3005 Balance of places 3 77 -86 -202 -295 -376 -513 Surplus / Deficit % 0.1% 2.6% -2.9% -6.7% -9.8% -12.5% -17.1% Figure D8: Projected Year 7 demand, against places available

This demonstrates that should no further secondary school places be commissioned there will be an increasing deficiency of places available from September 2014 onwards.

D4 The special school sector

Section C9 of this framework outlines the number of children currently educated in the special school sector across Milton Keynes. Figure C17 indicates the proportion of children that these children represent. The rise in the birth rate will clearly impact upon this sector and bring about additional demand for places in special school provision. For example, if 2% of secondary aged children continue to require a special school place then between 2012 and 2018 an additional 10 places per year group will be required in the special school sector.

In Spring 2012 analysis was carried out to assess the capacity of the existing special school sector in order to establish if additional places need to be commissioned to address the additional demand for the future. Consultation will be carried out with the special school sector over autumn 2012 before agreement is made about the need for new provision and the size, nature and location of such new provision if required.

D5 Future housing

There is significant new housing development expected across Milton Keynes over the next 15 years. The Revised Proposed Submission Core Strategy (October 2010) seeks to deliver 1,750 new homes per annum (28,000 in total over the plan period to 2026). The latest figures (from April 2012) show that of the 28,000 new homes to be delivered, approximately 21,000 have already been built, have planning permission or are within the Strategic Land Allocation (and are therefore anticipated to be delivered under the Tariff Framework Agreement). However, the Core Strategy was considered by a Planning Inspector at public examination hearings in July 2012, and the council awaits the findings of the Inspector’s Report, which may have consequences for the housing numbers. Figure D9 shows the latest housing trajectory forecasts in the light of the average 1,750 per annum target for house build. These forecasts are based on the numerous factors which impact on house-build delivery.

Projected Net Completions

3000 Housing Target Annualised

Annual Requirement Taking Account of 2500 Past/Projected Completions

2000

1500 Dwellings 2306 2064 2123 1000 1971 1939 1920 1796 1863 1613 1531 1526 1453 1149 500 786

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year

Figure D9: House-build targets 2010 to 2026

A significant proportion of this growth will result from large-scale developments in the expansion areas, namely the Western Expansion Area, Brooklands, Broughton Gate, Redhouse Park, Oakridge Park, Oxley Park,

Kingsmead, Tattenhoe Park and Newton Leys. Development has started on all of these sites with the exception of Oakgrove, Tattenhoe Park and the Western Expansion Area, although planning permission for Oakgrove has been granted. Developments are also planned for some of the older areas of Milton Keynes, the largest of these being Central Milton Keynes itself. Other sites include Campbell Park, Ashland, and some areas in Bletchley, Woburn Sands and Wolverton. The council is also currently consulting on the development of 2,500 proposed new homes in the Strategic Land Allocations in the south-east area of Milton Keynes.

Detailed research was carried out in 2011 to determine the likely additional pupil yield from new housing. Twelve greenfield sites have informed this research and this has led to the conclusion that on average 5.8 pupils per year group are generated from every 100 dwellings. This research and resulting analysis was verified by an independent Statistician and Demographer at Hertfordshire County Council who has much experience in the field of pupil yield, in November 2011. The pupil yield rate of 5.8% can be applied to future years’ planned housing for new, greenfield housing sites to project number of additional places required for pupils starting in the Reception year group. The map in Annex A shows all the developments with significant house-build planned, which includes the number of houses to be built for each site, the timescale of development and also the projected pupil yield by the conclusion of the site development.

It is acknowledged that factors such as housing tenure and birth rates by different ethnic groups will have direct impacts on pupil yield. Local research has recently been conducted to investigate the impact of tenure on pupil yield, and particularly social rented housing. The conclusion is that there is evidence to suggest that the higher proportion of social housing in an area, the higher the yield, especially for younger cohorts. However, the correlation is not strong enough to inform future planning.

Section E: Meeting future demand for childcare, early education and school places

Section D of this document confirms an increasing shortfall in both sessional childcare and primary school places from 2012 onwards and an increasing shortfall of secondary school places from 2014 onwards. In order to fulfil our statutory duty to secure sufficient childcare and school places for all children and young people living in Milton Keynes new sessional childcare and school places will need to be commissioned. When commissioning new places the following broad principles will apply:

E1 Principles for addressing demand for early education and childcare provision

1. Due to the nature of the childcare market, PVI providers are largely able to commence or expand provision at will, subject to satisfying Ofsted requirements, locating suitable premises, and satisfying themselves that there is sufficient demand to ensure financial viability.

2. Providers wishing to offer children their free early education entitlement must satisfy the local quality standards, as set out in the local Code of Practice for the Delivery of the Free Early Years Provision for three and four year olds and sign a contractual agreement to operate in accordance with this agreement. The local Code of Practice is reviewed on an annual basis in line with both national guidelines and local requirements. This will also apply to two year old provision once the relevant Code of Practice has been adopted.

3. Strategic management of the childcare market is carried out via the publication of the annual Childcare Sufficiency Assessment. This serves to notify providers and interested parties of potential gaps and shortfalls in provision, or where quality concerns persist as potential business opportunities.

4. In line with the needs identified within the Childcare Sufficiency Assessment, providers able to demonstrate that they will deliver high quality, sustainable childcare in an area of identified need, can apply for revenue grant funding to assist towards the high cost of creating additional childcare places, which would otherwise be a major barrier and deterrent.

5. Where capital finance is sufficient, and sufficiency assessments and market forces support it, opportunities will be taken to secure early education and childcare facilities on both new and existing school sites.

E2 Principles for addressing demand for new school places

1. Where possible, new school places will be provided by expanding high quality providers on existing school sites. If this is not practically or economically feasible consideration will then be given to the use of an alternative site

2. When commissioning new school places on alternative sites consideration will first be given to expanding existing provision that is judged ‘Outstanding’ by Ofsted that is within statutory walking distance (two miles for primary provision, three miles for secondary provision) of the demographic need for additional places. This is known locally as Expanding the Best.

3. Where expansion of existing schools is not deemed to be appropriate, new school provision will be commissioned on new sites. This would be in line with section 37 and schedule 11 of the EA 2011 that set out the expectation that any new school provision would be established as an academy or free school. The council would notify the DfE of its intention to seek proposals for a new school. The DfE would then publish details of the consultation on its website and alert potential providers/sponsors to the new academy’s requirements. The DfE would then confirm the successful provider.

4. There are no presumptions made about the maximum size of schools. Much of the success of a school will depend upon the leadership of the school and the organisation and delivery of the curriculum, rather than its size. Judgments will therefore be made on a case by case basis, guided by the views of the school’s leadership, the quality of the existing provision, parental preference for places, value for money and the needs of individual communities. These needs may vary, particularly between urban and rural communities.

E3 Principles for new primary school provision

1. All new primary provision will be commissioned with the full primary age range (four to 11). Where these schools are being commissioned in large, greenfield developments, sites should be secured to meet a two form entry school as a minimum, with the ability to be able to expand up to three or possibly four forms of entry if required in the future. New primary schools will open with Years R – 4 only in the first year. This is to avoid destabilising other local schools in the area and to discourage mobility of pupils in Years 5 and 6 who are at an important point in their primary education. It also allows the new organisation to grow and mature before addressing the full primary age range.

2. As new primary schools are commissioned, the LA will tailor the specification for the new organisation (size, age-range, specialism, etc) to meet the identified needs of the community to be served.

E4 Principles for new secondary school provision

1. There is no presumption about the maximum size of new secondary schools; however the minimum to be considered will be five forms of entry due to workable baseline viability and the demands and breadth of the secondary curriculum. As with primary schools, the quality of

provision will depend for the most part upon the leadership of the school and the organisation and delivery of the curriculum, rather than the size of the school

2. New secondary schools will be planned to have a minimum expected intake of 150 pupils per year group and will need to be placed on a site capable of expanding up to at least 240 pupils per year group. Secondary schools will open with Years 7, 8 and 9 and then build up incrementally each year. This is to discourage mobility of pupils in Year 10 and above who are at an important point in their secondary education. It also allows the new organisation to grow and mature before addressing the full secondary age range

3. As new secondary schools are commissioned, the LA will tailor the specification for the new school (size, ethos, specialism etc) to meet the identified needs of the community to be served as well as the needs of the wider Milton Keynes community.

E5 Capital funding to support the provision of new school places

For new housing development, the LA will continue to seek appropriate financial and/or land contributions from developers where additional infrastructure is required to meet the demand. Where Milton Keynes Council is the planning authority, contributions will be negotiated using the adopted Supplementary Planning Guidance (SPG). This was adopted in 2004 and a pupil yield of four children per year group per 100 houses was used as the basis for assessing contributions. The research carried out into pupil yield in Milton Keynes covered in Section D of this document demonstrates that this policy framework is lower than what we now understand the demand will be. This guidance is shortly to be reviewed and the latest research will be used as a basis for securing the future policy position. Where Milton Keynes Partnership is the planning authority, the tariff will apply. To date the

contributions received via the tariff have represented a small proportion of the real cost of provision.

Where pupil numbers are rising in established areas the LA will use the School Capacity Collection (SCAP) to demonstrate need and receive ‘Basic Need’ funding. The SCAP is a survey developed and managed by the Education Funding Agency for the DfE. It allows the DfE to identify those areas where there are pressures on places and where significant shortfalls of places are anticipated and asks LAs to inform the DfE of any plans to secure additional capacity. The DfE will assess projections from LAs in order to monitor trends but also to inform how much Basic Need funding should be allocated to assist LAs to provide enough places to meet future demand. Basic Need funding has been received for 2012/13 but the LA awaits its allocation for the next funding round, likely to be in late autumn 2012.

E6 Planning to meet the demand

E6.1 Early education and childcare provision

A new strategy is currently being developed to address the projected deficit in childcare provision and the new legal duty to provide education for a proportion of two year olds with effect from September 2013 (see section A1). This will be included in the next version of this framework.

E6.2 Primary provision

Section D of this framework outlines the projected deficit in primary and secondary school places over the next few years. To address this need a programme called Increasing Primary Places (IPP) commenced in early 2012. This involved formal negotiations with all schools regarding the need for additional places, either by maximising the use of the existing site, or through capital investment.

As a result, a number of schools have agreed to increase their admission number with effect from 2012 in the short term, pending consultation regarding 2014 admissions arrangements. These increases are as follows:

School Current PAN Revised PAN Lavendon 15 20 Olney Middle 90 100 Pepper Hill 45 60 St Andrew’s CE Infant 15 20 Summerfield 50 52 The Willows 30 45 Tickford Park Primary 45 50 Willen Primary 50 60 Figure E1: Revised PAN with effect from 2012

In the meantime, additional places are being provided via expansions to existing provision or via new sites across the borough. Commissioning these additional places requires legal processes to take place, some of which have been completed, some of which are in progress and others of which have yet to take place. The proposed schemes and the commissioning position are as follows:

Additional places per year group (total Target additional Commissioning Opening Project Change places) Position Date

Brooklands Raise PAN in line Farm Raise PAN with number of 30 (210) 2012 Primary from 30 to 60 places already School legally secured

Extension to Middleton expand Primary school from 30 (210) Legally secured 2012 School PAN of 60 to PAN of 90

Extension to expand Oldbrook school from 15 (45) Legally secured 2012 First School PAN of 45 to PAN of 60

Additional places per year group (total Target additional Commissioning Opening Project Change places) Position Date

Raise PAN in line Priory Rise Raise PAN with number of Primary 30 (210) 2012 from 30 to 60 places already School legally secured

Re-modelling of accommodation Wyvern No legal process to enable PAN 30 (90) 2012 School required to increase from 90 to 120

Extension to Shepherdswell expand school Currently under 15 (45) 2013 School from PAN of 45 consultation to PAN of 60

Extension to Brooklands expand school Farm Primary 30 (210) Legally secured 2013 from PAN of 60 School to PAN of 90

Extension to Falconhurst expand school Primary 10 (70) Legally secured 2013 from PAN of 50 School to PAN of 60

Extension to Heelands expand school Currently under 30 (90) 2013 School from PAN of 30 consultation to PAN of 60

Remodelling of Knowles accommodation Proposal – Primary to expand from 30 (210) consultation yet to 2013 School PAN of 60 to take place PAN of 90

Extension to Langland expand school Community 10 (70) Legally secured 2013 from PAN of 50 School to PAN of 60

Additional places per year group (total Target additional Commissioning Opening Project Change places) Position Date

Extension to Loughton expand school Currently under Manor First 30 (90) 2013 from PAN of 60 consultation School to PAN of 90

Extension to Priory Rise expand school Primary 30 (210) Legally secured 2014 from PAN of 60 School to PAN of 90

Western Legally secured New community 2014 or Expansion 90 (630) under previous school 2015 Area site 1 legislation

To be commissioned as second Currently being Brooklands campus of commissioned via 90 (630) 2015 Primary site 2 existing school Expanding the judged Best outstanding by Ofsted

To be commissioned as second campus of Currently being existing school commissioned via Oakgrove site 60 (420) 2015 judged Expanding the outstanding by Best Ofsted or opened as an academy

Western Legally secured New community To be Expansion 90 (630) under previous school determined Area site 2 legislation

Additional places per year group (total Target additional Commissioning Opening Project Change places) Position Date

To be commissioned as second campus To be Western of existing school To be commissioned via To be Expansion judged determined Expanding the determined Area site 3 outstanding by Best Ofsted or opened as an academy

To be commissioned as second campus To be Western of existing school To be commissioned via To be Expansion judged determined Expanding the determined Area site 4 outstanding by Best Ofsted or opened as an academy

Newton Legally secured Leys New community To be 60 (420) under previous Primary school determined legislation School

To be commissioned as Strategic second campus To be Land of existing school To be commissioned via To be Allocation judged determined Expanding the determined site 1 outstanding by Best Ofsted or opened as an academy

To be commissioned as Strategic second campus To be Land of existing school To be commissioned via To be Allocation judged determined Expanding the determined site 2 outstanding by Best Ofsted or opened as an academy Figure E2: Additional primary school places already secured and to be proposed

These plans secure a large number of additional places to address the shortfall in demand. However the proposed provision outlined above will be insufficient to meet all projected demand. The council therefore continues to work with all high quality providers across Milton Keynes to ensure that sufficient additional school places are provided.

All sites and proposed or secured schemes are illustrated on the map attached at Annex B.

Detailed analysis of the demand, proposed new provision and identified areas of shortfall for which further work will be now be carried out is attached by liaison group area at Annex C.

E6.3 Secondary provision

New school places are to be proposed and in some cases have already been commissioned to address the shortfall in demand identified in Section D, using the principles outlined in E1-4 above as follows:

Additional places per year group Target (total Commissioning Opening Project Change places) Position Date Raise PAN in line with Oakgrove Raise PAN 30 (150) numbers of 2013 School places already legally secured Extension to St Paul’s 2013 (PAN expand school Catholic 30 (150) Legally secured increase from PAN of 240 School from 2012) to PAN of 270

Additional places per year group Target (total Commissioning Opening Project Change places) Position Date To be commissioned as second campus of Site on existing school Currently being 240 (1500) 2015 Brooklands judged commissioned outstanding by Ofsted or opened as an academy To be identified – to serve Extension to increasing expand existing To be demographic schools or 120 (600) 2015 commissioned demand in provision on new CMK and site surrounding areas To be commissioned as second Site on campus of Western existing school To be 240 (1500) 2016/17 Expansion judged commissioned Area outstanding by Ofsted or opened as an academy To be commissioned as second Strategic campus of Land existing school To be To be To be Allocation judged determined commissioned determined Secondary outstanding by Ofsted or opened as an academy Figure E3: Additional secondary school places already secured and to be proposed

The proposed provision outlined above will be insufficient to meet all projected demand. The council therefore continues to work with all high quality providers across Milton Keynes to ensure that sufficient additional school places will be provided.

All sites and proposed or secured schemes are illustrated on the map attached at Annex B.

Detailed analysis of the demand, proposed new provision and identified areas of shortfall for which further work will be now be carried out is attached by liaison group area at Annex C.

ANNEX A: Housing sites planned from 2012 with projected number of additional pupils per year 55

ANNEX B: Planned new school place provision

Name of the school (target expansion date) (total additional places) % New provision yet to be commissioned (9) ! New provision already commissioned (3) N # Proposed increase to pupil admission number via capital investment (12) 0 1 2 $ Raise PAN in line w ith the number of places already legally secured (3) Location of a site to provide 600 places for CMK is yet to be confirmed 56

ANNEX C Projected demand by liaison group For planning purposes schools have been grouped into liaison groups which are made up of the primary schools that traditionally feed into the twelve secondary schools within Milton Keynes. These numbers are for planning purposes only since trends of parental preference will impact on the local demand.

New liaison groups are being developed in the three large housing developments. For these three large housing developments and all other developments of 500 or more homes, a pupil yield of 5.8% per cohort has been applied.

Existing Liaison Group New Liaison Groups Page number Brooklands Liaison Group 58 Denbigh Liaison Group 60 Leon Liaison Group 62 Lord Grey Liaison Group 64 Milton Keynes Academy Liaison Group 66 Oakgrove Liaison Group 68 Ousedale Liaison Group 70 Shenley Brook End Liaison Group 72 St Paul’s Liaison Group 74 Stantonbury Liaison Group 76 Strategic Land Allocation Liaison Group 78 The Hazeley Liaison Group 79 The Radcliffe Liaison Group 81 Walton High Liaison Group 83 Western Expansion Area Liaison Group 85

Brooklands Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Broughton Gate and Brooklands

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Births at 99% 0 12 62 64 66 67 67 Pupils expected in new houses 23 39 51 67 79 97 114 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 3 7 15 18 20 22 25 Total projected pupils 20 44 98 113 125 142 156 Balance of places 40 16 -38 -53 -65 -82 -96

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Brooklands Farm Primary (60) Brooklands Farm will be growing by an additional 30 places in September 2013 extending the total PAN to 90 The second primary provision on Brooklands is currently being commissioned. Ideally this provision would have opened in September 2014, however accessing the required infrastructure to support the school build means it is likely this will be delayed until September 2015 As a result there may be a pressure for places for admissions to Reception in September 2014. This will depend on the number of houses completed and the number of pupils living in the new housing on the development as compared to the average pupil yield of 5.8%

Brooklands Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers Broughton Gate and Brooklands

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 00 00000 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 41 38 33 34 47 41 44 Pupils expected in new houses 23 39 51 67 79 97 114 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 3 7 15 18 20 22 25 Total projected pupils 61 70 69 83 106 116 133 Balance of places -61 -70 -69 -83 -106 -116 -133

Future plans to meet demand: There is currently no secondary provision in the Broughton Gate and Brooklands area. Oakgrove School includes Broughton Gate in its defined area at present and has also agreed to include Brooklands in its defined area pending the opening of its own provision There is a site identified for secondary provision in the development framework for Brooklands but access to this site is subject to a legal agreement with the developer New secondary provision is currently being commissioned for this site and is expected to open in September 2015, subject to access from the developer

Denbigh Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Two Mile Ash, Great Holm, Loughton, Crownhill, Shenley Church End and Shenley Lodge

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 Births at 99% 284 251 257 265 272 276 277 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 Total projected pupils 280 249 254 262 268 272 273 Balance of places 42 76 70 62 54 50 49

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Ashbrook (60), Caroline Haslett (60), Glastonbury Thorn (90), Holmwood (60) and Loughton Manor First (60) The provision will meet the ongoing needs of this area. Current surplus is used to meet pressures in demand in neighbouring areas Consultation has recently been completed for a proposal to expand Loughton Manor First School from its current PAN of 60 to a new PAN of 90 with effect from September 2013

Denbigh Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers Two Mile Ash, Great Holm, Loughton, Crownhill, Shenley Church End and Shenley Lodge

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 272 238 257 268 257 258 228 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 Total projected pupils 262 229 248 258 248 249 220 Balance of places -62 -29 -48 -58 -48 -49 -20

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Denbigh School There is currently a discrepancy of places between the primary provision in this area and the number of secondary places available. This will increase should the proposal at Loughton Manor First School be implemented There is a need to commission additional secondary school places to serve this area, particularly as this area is currently served by the reducing surplus in The Hazeley liaison group. This need is currently being considered

Leon Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Central Bletchley, Fenny Stratford, Water Eaton, Little Brickhill and Newton Leys

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 Births at 99% 234 248 273 282 288 293 294 Pupils expected in new houses 16 22 28 36 47 58 70 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 23 24 27 28 28 29 29 Total projected pupils 227 246 274 290 307 322 335 Balance of places 13 -6 -34 -50 -67 -82 -95

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Drayton Park (45), Premier Academy (90), Knowles (60) and Water Hall (45) The table above demonstrates the need for additional places to be secured The rate used to project the number of pupils expected to live in new houses on the Newton Leys estate is the average 5.8%, although currently the new housing is not delivering that level of demand, so the actual demand may be lower A site has been secured on the Newton Leys development to provide the required additional places. Currently the new school has been commissioned as a community primary school due to open in 2015, however close monitoring of the local situation will be required to determine the exact timing and nature of this provision Knowles Infant School and Knowles Junior School have been amalgamated and will open as a new community primary school in September 2012. A consultation to expand this school from its PAN of 60 to 90 will take place over the autumn term

Leon Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers Central Bletchley, Fenny Stratford, Water Eaton, Little Brickhill and Newton Leys

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 218 197 220 219 226 238 263 Pupils expected in new houses 16 22 28 36 47 58 70 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 37 34 38 38 39 41 45 Total projected pupils 197 185 210 217 234 255 288 Balance of places -62 -50 -75 -82 -99 -120 -153

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Leon School and Sports College, which will become Sir Herbert Leon Academy on 1 September 2012 The table above demonstrates the need for additional places to be secured The rate used to project the number of pupils expected to live in new houses on Newton Leys is the average 5.8%, although currently the new housing is not delivering that level of demand, so the actual demand may be lower There is physical capacity at Leon School and Sports College for the Planned Admission Number to be raised at an appropriate point. Leon School and Sports College becomes Sir Herbert Leon Academy on 1 September 2012

Lord Grey Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Granby, Old Bletchley, Far Bletchley and West Bletchley. Some roads on Furzton are also shared with the Shenley Brook End area

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 Births at 99% 261 330 310 318 326 331 333 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 26 32 30 31 32 32 33 Total projected pupils 235 298 280 287 294 299 300 Balance of places 35 -28 -10 -17 -24 -29 -30

Future plans to meet demand The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Abbeys (45), Barleyhurst (30), Chestnuts (45), Cold Harbour (45), Holne Chase (45) and Rickley Park (60) There is a need to commission additional primary school places to serve this area. Options are currently being considered

Lord Grey Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers Granby, Old Bletchley, Far Bletchley and West Bletchley. Some roads on Furzton are also shared with the Shenley Brook End area

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 262 234 235 248 238 251 302 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 40 36 36 38 37 39 47 Total projected pupils 222 198 199 210 201 212 255 Balance of places 18 42 41 30 39 28 -15

Future plans to meet demand The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Lord Grey School (240) Provision will meet the ongoing needs of this area

Milton Keynes Academy Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Ashland, Beanhill, Campbell Park (south), Central Milton Keynes (south), Coffee Hall, Eaglestone, Fishermead, Leadenhall, Netherfield, Oldbrook, Passmore, Peartree Bridge, Simpson, Springfield, The Hub, Tinkers Bridge, Woolstone (primary only), Woughton on the Green and Woughton Park

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 395 395 395 395 395 395 395 Births at 99% 544 543 590 604 619 627 631 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 42 42 45 47 48 48 49 Total projected pupils 502 501 545 557 571 579 582 Balance of places -107 -106 -150 -162 -176 -184 -187

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Falconhurst (50), Langland (60), Moorland Infant (30), New Chapter (45), Oldbrook (60), Jubilee Wood (45), Shepherdswell (45), Simpson (30), The Willows (30) The above table demonstrates an ongoing need for additional school places to serve this area from within the existing population and irrespective of new housing From September 2012 Shepherdswell School will open as an Academy and will increase its PAN from 45 to 60. The Willows will increase its PAN from 30 to 45 Penwith School and Meadfurlong School have amalgamated and will open as a new primary school (Jubilee Wood) from 1 September 2012 Falconhurst Primary School and Langland Primary School will both increase their PAN from 50 to 60 in September 2013 Addressing the need for places in this area will be a planning priority for 2012/13

Milton Keynes Academy Liaison Group Year 7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 368 342 379 421 412 471 486 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 50 46 51 57 56 64 66 Total projected pupils 318 296 328 364 356 407 420 Balance of places -78 -56 -88 -124 -116 -167 -180

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at The Milton Keynes Academy (240) The table above demonstrates an ongoing and increasing need for additional secondary school places to serve the local area in the context of reducing surplus places in most other liaison groups Addressing the need for places in this area will be a planning priority for 2012/13

Oakgrove Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Atterbury, Broughton, Middleton, Milton Keynes Village, Monkston, Monkston Park, Oakgrove and Woolstone (secondary only)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 Births at 99% 231 256 234 241 247 250 252 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 27 30 27 28 29 29 29 Pupils expected in new houses 0 6 12 17 22 27 32 Total projected pupils 204 232 219 230 240 248 255 Balance of places 6 -22 -9 -20 -30 -38 -45

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Broughton Fields (60), Middleton (90), and Monkston (60) A primary school site has been secured on the Oakgrove development. This provision is currently being commissioned and is projected to be opened in September 2015

Oakgrove Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers Atterbury, Broughton, Middleton, Milton Keynes Village, Monkston, Monkston Park, Oakgrove and Woolstone (secondary only)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 162 190 185 216 225 191 217 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 8 10 9 11 11 10 11 Pupils expected in new houses 0 6 12 17 22 27 32 Total projected pupils 154 186 188 222 236 208 238 Balance of places 56 24 22 -12 -26 2 -28

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Oakgrove School (210) which will increase to 240 with effect from September 2013 Oakgrove School currently serves Broughton Gate and Brooklands but these areas will eventually be served by the new secondary provision in the Brooklands liaison group. This means that there will continue to be sufficient secondary school places to serve this area as the Oakgrove development commences and additional children move into the area

Ousedale Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers two areas. The first area serves the Newport Pagnell area, for children living in Astwood, Chicheley, Gayhurst, Hardmead, Lathbury, Little Linford, Moulsoe, Newport Pagnell, North Crawley, Sherington and Stoke Goldington. The second area serves the Olney area, for children living in Clifton Reynes, Cold Brayfield, Emberton, Filgrave, Lavendon, Olney, Newton Blossomville, Petsoe, Ravenstone, Tyringham, Warrington, Weston Underwood

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 Births at 99% 284 327 297 307 315 319 321 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total projected pupils 281 324 294 304 312 316 318 Balance of places 124 81 111 101 93 89 87

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Cedars (45), Emberton (12), Green Park (45), Lavendon (15), Newton Blossomville (8), North Crawley (15), Olney Infant (90), Portfields (100), Sherington (15), Stoke Goldington (15) and Tickford Park (45) From September 2012 Lavendon will increase its PAN from 15 to 20 and Tickford Park will increase its PAN from 45 to 50 There continues to be a proportion of surplus places available in this liaison group at primary level. Use of this surplus will be considered to address areas where demand exceeds supply

Ousedale Liaison Group Year 7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 Year 6/7 transfer rate – 99% 279 272 311 258 296 301 319 Catholic projections 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 Total projected pupils 274 267 306 254 291 296 314 Balance of places 86 93 54 106 69 64 46

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Ousedale School (360) There continues to be a proportion of surplus places available in this liaison group at secondary level. Use of this surplus will be considered to address areas where demand exceeds supply

Shenley Brook End Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Emerson Valley, Furzton, Shenley Brook End, Tattenhoe and Westcroft

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 Births at 99% 371 293 336 335 343 348 350 Catholic projections 19 15 17 17 17 18 18 Total projected pupils 352 278 319 318 326 330 332 Balance of places -112 -38 -79 -78 -86 -90 -92

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Giles Brook (60), Howe Park (60), Long Meadow (60) and Merebrook (60) There are no current plans to increase the number of places available. Current deficits are being met by primary schools in The Hazeley liaison group, however this capacity will reduce as new housing is built in Kingsmead South and Tattenhoe Park Addressing the need for places in this area will be a planning priority for 2012/13

Shenley Brook End Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers Emerson Valley, Furzton, Shenley Brook End, Tattenhoe and Westcroft

Category 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 Year 6/7 transfer rate – 99% 314 333 308 286 301 316 293 Catholic projections 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 Total projected pupils 305 324 299 278 293 307 285 Balance of places -65 -84 -59 -38 -53 -67 -45

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Shenley Brook End School (240). Addressing the need for places in this area will be a planning priority for 2012/13

St Paul’s Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers places for all children requiring a Catholic school place across the borough

To project provision, the current proportion of children accessing Catholic school places within a given liaison group has been applied to the projected pupil population for that area for each future year

Liaison Group 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Brooklands 3 7 15 18 20 22 25 Denbigh 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 Leon 23 24 27 28 28 29 29 Lord Grey 26 32 30 31 32 32 33 Oakgrove 27 30 27 28 29 29 29 Ousedale 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Shenley Brook End 19 15 17 17 17 18 18 Stantonbury 57 60 62 63 65 66 66 The Hazeley 444 4445 The Milton Keynes Academy 42 42 45 47 48 48 49 The Radcliffe 42 44 38 39 40 41 41 Walton High 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 Total 257 271 278 288 297 303 310 Total PAN 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 Balance of places -51 -65 -72 -82 -91 -97 -104

Future plans to meet demand:

The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Bishop Parker (30), St Bernadette’s (60), St Mary Magdalene (30), St Monica’s (56) and St Thomas Aquinas (30) Currently there are no additional places planned. However, there is an ongoing dialogue with the Catholic diocese to consider the future needs of Catholic provision

St Paul’s Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers places for all children requiring a Catholic secondary school place across the borough

To project provision, the current proportion of children accessing Catholic school places within a given liaison group has then been applied to the projected pupil population for that area for each future year

Liaison Group 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Brooklands 000 0000 Denbigh 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 Leon 37 34 38 38 39 41 45 Lord Grey 40 36 36 38 37 39 47 Oakgrove 8 10 9 11 11 10 11 Ousedale 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 Shenley Brook End 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 Stantonbury 65 68 72 79 81 80 85 The Hazeley 333 4444 The Milton Keynes Academy 50 46 51 57 56 64 66 The Radcliffe 19 18 20 20 20 22 22 Walton High 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 Total 252 243 258 275 276 289 308 Total PAN 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 Balance of places 18 27 12 -5 -6 -19 -38

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at St Paul’s Catholic School (240), which is due to increase to 270 in September 2012 following a capital investment There is an ongoing dialogue with the Catholic diocese to consider the future needs of Catholic provision

Stantonbury Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Bancroft, Bancroft Park, Blue Bridge, Bolbeck Park, Bradville, Bradwell, Bradwell Common, Campbell Park (north), Central Milton Keynes (north), Conniburrow, Downhead Park, Downs Barn, Giffard Park, Great Linford, Heelands, Neath Hill, New Bradwell, Pennyland, Stantonbury, Stantonbury Fields, Blakelands, Willen, Willen Park, Redhouse Park and Oakridge Park

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 Births at 99% 578 613 630 647 662 672 676 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 57 60 62 63 65 66 66 Total projected pupils 521 553 568 584 597 606 610 Balance of places 44 12 -3 -19 -32 -41 -45

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Brooksward (45), Downs Barn (30), Germander Park (45), Giffard Park (60), Great Linford (45), Heelands (30), New Bradwell (60), Pepper Hill (45), Priory Common (60), St Andrew’s (15), Summerfield (50), Willen (50) and Wood End (30) From September 2012 the revised PAN will be 597 as 32 more places will be made available through additional PAN: Pepper Hill will increase from 45 to 60, St Andrews CE Infant will increase from 15 to 20, Summerfield will increase from 50 to 52 and Willen will increase from 50 to 60. Additionally, there is a consultation to extend the PAN at Heelands by 30 from September 2013 The development at Oakridge Park will also need to be taken into account. Close analysis of the number of primary school pupils living in the new housing will need to be carried out in order to establish the need for any further places to support this area. However, should the consultation at Heelands be positive, the total PAN from September 2013 will be 627, which should address the needs of this area

Stantonbury Liaison Group Year 7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 444 464 487 540 551 546 576 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 65 68 72 79 81 80 85 Total projected pupils 379 396 415 461 470 466 491 Balance of places 71 54 35 -11 -20 -16 -41

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Stantonbury Campus (450) The development at Oakridge Park will also apply pressure to the existing shortfall in provision from 2015 Addressing the need for places in this area will be a planning priority for 2012/13

Strategic Land Allocation (SLA) Liaison Group Reception Year

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 0000000 Pupils expected in new houses 0 0 0 0 0 12 35 Pupil yield against PAN 0 0 0 0 0 -12 -35

Future plans to meet demand: Building on this land is not due until 2016-2023 however, given indicated numbers of dwellings it is likely that two primary schools will be needed as well as some expansion to provision directly to the west of this area

Year 7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 0000000 Pupils expected in new houses 0 00001235 Pupil yield against PAN 00000-12-35

Future plans to meet demand: Building on this land is not due until 2016-2023 however, given indicated numbers of dwellings, and the capacity of neighbouring liaison groups, a secondary school will be required. This is subject to ongoing dialogue with planners and the developers involved

The Hazeley Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Grange Farm, Kingsmead, Medbourne, Oakhill, Oxley Park and Tattenhoe Park

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Planned Admission Number 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 Births at 99% 133 156 157 160 164 166 167 Pupils expected in new houses 17 23 34 57 80 97 110 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 Total projected pupils 146 175 187 213 240 259 272 Balance of places 34 5 -7 -33 -60 -79 -92

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Oxley Park (60), Christ The Sower (60) and Priory Rise (60) From September 2014 Priory Rise will increase the PAN from 60 to 90 From September 2015 there is a predicted shortfall in places. However. this will depend on the number of houses completed and the number of pupils living in the new housing on the development as compared to the average pupil yield of 5.8%

The Hazeley Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers Grange Farm, Kingsmead, Medbourne, Oakhill, Oxley Park and Tattenhoe Park

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 104 109 113 132 133 125 148 Pupils expected in new houses 17 23 34 57 80 97 110 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Total projected pupils 118 129 144 185 209 218 254 Balance of places 122 111 96 55 31 22 -14

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at The Hazeley (240) The Hazeley currently supports demand within the Shenley Brook End and Denbigh liaison groups. The ability of the school to continue to do this will reduce year on year as housing development progresses within the area served by the school, and by 2018 will no longer be sufficient to cover demand of its own liaison group

The Radcliffe Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Calverton, Galley Hill, Fullers Slade, Greenleys, Hodge Lea, Stacey Bushes, Stony Stratford, Wolverton, Old Wolverton, Wolverton Mill, Castlethorpe, Hanslope and Haversham

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 Births at 99% 386 405 350 362 371 376 379 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 42 44 38 39 40 41 41 Total projected pupils 344 361 312 323 331 335 338 Balance of places -34 -51 -2 -13 -21 -25 -28

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Castlethorpe (15), Greenleys First (60), Hanslope (30), Haversham (25), Queen Eleanor (30), Russell Street (60) and Wyvern (90) From September 2012 Wyvern will increase the PAN from 90 to 120, which means the total PAN for this liaison group will be 340. A deficit in provision is projected for the area, which will also need to take into account the development at Stratford Park. Close analysis of the number of school pupils living in the new housing will need to be carried out in order to establish the need for any further places to support this area

The Radcliffe Liaison Group Year 7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 280 276 304 296 300 334 326 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 19 18 20 20 20 22 22 Total projected pupils 261 258 284 276 280 312 304 Balance of places -51 -48 -74 -66 -70 -102 -94

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at The Radcliffe School (210) Projections demonstrate that there will continue to be a deficit in secondary school places to serve this area, which will be exacerbated by pupils expected to be arriving in new housing in the area. There are no current plans to increase the number of places available. However this shortfall will now be considered in the context of the position of neighbouring liaison groups and additional places commissioned if it is determined that this is required

Walton High Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers Browns Wood, Old Farm Park, Walnut Tree, Wavendon, Wavendon Gate, Caldecotte, Walton, Walton Park, Bow Brickhill, Kents Hill and Woburn Sands

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 Births at 99% 272 296 292 299 306 311 313 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 Total projected pupils 265 289 285 292 299 304 305 Balance of places -55 -79 -75 -82 -89 -94 -95

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Bow Brickhill (15), Heronshaw (60), Kents Hill (60), St Mary’s Wavendon (15) and Wavendon Gate (60) The above table demonstrates an ongoing deficit in primary school places to serve the local area, although some children living in Woburn Sands choose to access provision in Central Bedfordshire Reviewing the need for places in this area will be a planning priority for 2012/13

Walton High Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers Browns Wood, Old Farm Park, Walnut Tree, Wavendon, Wavendon Gate, Caldecotte, Walton, Walton Park, Bow Brickhill, Kents Hill and Woburn Sands

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 Year 6/7 transfer rate - 99% 175 169 174 186 193 183 206 Pupils projected to attend Catholic provision 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 Total projected pupils 169 164 168 180 187 177 199 Balance of places 71 76 72 60 53 63 41

Future plans to meet demand: The Planned Admission Number represents provision at Walton High (240) This represents a diminishing surplus of places available in this liaison group at secondary level which will need to be carefully reviewed in the context of parental preference and demand from elsewhere in the borough

Western Expansion Area Liaison Group Reception Year

Planning for this liaison group covers all new housing projected to be built in the ‘Western Expansion Area’, which is currently projected to commence in 2013

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 00 00000 Pupils expected in new houses 0 0 21 51 85 120 155 Balance of places 0 0 -21 -51 -85 -120 -155

Future plans to meet demand: There are four primary school sites secured via the terms of the legal agreement with the developer Two of the primary schools (both with a PAN of 90) have already been commissioned (as community schools) and are due to open in September 2014 and September 2015, although timings are continually reviewed in line with the developer’s most recent phasing plans No commissioning has yet taken place for the other two primary schools

Western Expansion Area Liaison Group Year 7

Planning for this liaison group covers all new housing projected to be built in the ‘Western Expansion Area’, which is currently projected to commence in 2013

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PAN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pupils expected in new houses 0 0 21 51 85 120 155 Balance of places 0 0 -21 -51 -85 -120 -155

Future plans to meet demand: There is a secondary school site secured via the terms of the legal agreement with the developer No secondary school places have yet been commissioned and will be continually reviewed in line with the developer’s most recent phasing plans. It is likely that the provision will be required by 2016/17

86 M12266 SOF Cover_Layout 1 10/09/2012 10:57 Page 2

Published: August 2012

This document has been prepared by: School Organisation and Planning

For further information please contact: Tel: 01908 258035 Email: [email protected]

www.milton-keynes.gov.uk

Available in audio, large print, braille and other languages

01908 258035 M12266