044468

EACH-FOR Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios

Specific Targeted Project Scientific support to policies – SSP

Deliverable reference number and title: D2.2.2.2

Republic of Case Study Report

Due date of deliverable: 31.12.2008 Actual submission date: 30.03.2009

Start date of project: 01.01.2007 Duration: 2 years

Organisation name of lead contractor for this deliverable: CEDEM

Project co-funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme (2002-2006) Dissemination Level PU Public PU PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission RE Services) Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission CO Services)

EACH-FOR is a project funded by the European Commission, by SERI (Austria) and by ATLAS Innoglobe (Hungary) Project website: www.each-for.eu

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Republic of Tajikistan Case Study Report

Khakimov P. Sh. – Researcher, Department “Migration, Urbanization and Settlement of Population”, Institute of Demography Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan.

Mahmadbekov M. Sh. – Head of Department “Migration, Urbanization and Settlement of Population”, Institute of Demography Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan.

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Geographical and Environmental Context

The Republic of Tajikistan is situated in the south-east of Central Asia, between the latitudes 36°40’ to 41°05’ and longitudes 67°31’ to 75°14’. The area of Tajikistan’s territory is 143,100 sq. km., stretching 700 km from west to the east and 350 km from north to the south.

The country’s perimeter totals 3,000 km. The territory of the country is divided into 4 administrative regions and the capital city: Sogd Region, Khatlon Region, Mountain- Badakhshan Autonomous Region and Direct District Region and .

Tajikistan is a mountainous country (93% of total territory). The absolute heights vary from 300 to 7,495m. The western deserts and semi-deserts of the Turan lowland merge with the foothills in the east. Further to the east, there are the huge mountain ranges of the Tibetan plateau and Tian Shan. This geography results in great diversity of natural conditions and environments.

Due to the specific climate conditions and landscape, the mountains of Tajikistan are considered to be the main glacial area of Central Asia. Glaciers retain huge amounts of water, and regulate river flow and climate. Glaciers and snowfields are the main source of water replenishing the Aral Sea. Glaciers occupy more than 8.4 thousand sq.km, which is about 6% of the total area of the country. The total number of glaciers is about 8000 and 7 of the glaciers have a length of more than 20 km.

Tajikistan's rivers are the basic source of fresh water for the Aral Sea. These rivers are important for irrigation, power generation, water supply, etc. Major watersheds of Tajikistan are Syrdarya (North Tajikistan), Zeravshan (Central Tajikistan), Pyanj (Southwest Tajikistan and Pamirs) and the blind drainage area of East Pamir. Most of the rivers in Tajikistan are mountainous; some of them originate at an altitude of more than 3,000-4,000 m. above sea-level. There are more than 1,300 lakes in Tajikistan, 80% of which are located at an altitude of around 3,000 m with an area of less 1 sq.km.

2 The largest salt-water lake in Tajikistan is Karakul (this lake was formed at the site of an asteroid impact), which is located in East Pamir (3,914m.). The deepest freshwater lake in Tajikistan is Sarez (3,239 m.) in the West Pamir. The lake was formed as the result of a powerful earthquake and rockslide in 1911. In addition to natural lakes, there are reservoirs such as Kairakkum, Nurek and Farkhad.

Forests in Tajikistan are State property referred to as “first group forests”, which means that all forestry activities are aimed at expansion and improvement. Forests in Tajikistan occupy an area of 410 thousand hectares and include juniper, pistachio walnut and maple forests. The flora of Tajikistan is rich and diverse and includes more than 5,000 species of higher plants, and over 3,000 species of lower plants, including endemic, rare and endangered species. The fauna of Tajikistan is very diverse 1.

1.2. Migration in the context of the socio-economic and political situation

During the last century rapid population growth in the Republic of Tajikistan led to an increase of population density. The population density in 1989 was 35.6 persons per square kilometer, and in 2006 it was 48.4 persons per sq. km. However, the population density varies from region to region. In the Mountain-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (MBAR), in Sogd, Khatlon regions and Direct Districts Subordination (DDS) the population density in 2006 was 3.4; 81.1; 99.3 and 53.5 per square kilometer respectively, whereas in 1989 these figures were considerably lower (2.5; 61.2; 68.4 and 38 per square kilometer). Since 93% of the total territory is occupied by mountains, rapid population growth and increasing population density has put increasing pressure on the environment in most valleys that are populated. Also it led to the exhaustion of the natural resources, which may cause an increased frequency of natural disasters.

During the last 15 years, the annual rate of population growth remained at 2%. The total population grew from 1.034.400 (in 1913) to 6.132.000 (in 2000). The TFR (Total Fertility Rate) in 2003 decreased to 3.3 children per woman in comparison to 5.9 children per woman in 1989. Approximately 40% of population is below the age of 15 2. The high rate of population growth and poverty have led to degradation of the natural resources and consequently have negative effects on the environment (See figures 1.1a and 1.1b for more details).

1 http://www.meteo.tj/eng/about_tajik_1.html 2 Khakimov P. “Socio-Economic Characteristics and Consequences of Internal Migration in the Republic of Tajikistan, (1995-2003)”, THE DEMOGRAPHIC CENTER Chapter I: Population and Development, Monograph Series No. 36., 36th Annual Conference On POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT Issues (PROBLEMS & POLICIES), Cairo-2006.

3 Figure1.1a. Population change in the Republic of Tajikistan between 1951 and 2006

180 5

140 4

100 3

60 2 % 000 20 1

-20 0 1951 1954 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 -60 -1 Net Migration Natural Increase -100 Total Increase -2 Rate of Pop-n Growth Years

Source: Own calculation based on data from the State Statistics Committee Republic of Tajikistan

In general, the problem of migration connected with degradation of the environment has not been explored in Tajikistan. To a certain extent, the migration caused by degradation of the environment was studied in 2007 by the Institute of Demography of the Academy of Sciences of Republic of Tajikistan. This investigation concerned migrants who voluntarily moved in the last 60 years according to the state plan and environmental migrants, who had been moved to other regions of the country. Surveys were carried out in the place of origin and destination of migrants. The factors which played a decisive role in the return migration and acclimatization of migrants were determined. This investigation was focused on political, economic and social aspects of migration 3.

3 See Khakimov P. Factors affecting internal migration in the Republic of Tajikistan., Dushanbe – 2007, (unpublished report)

4

Figure1.1b. Percentage of Population Change by Rural-Urban Division in the Republic of Tajikistan between 1920 and 2006

16

12 U+R Urban Rural 8 % 4

0

0 0 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 92 93 95 95 95 96 96 97 97 97 98 98 99 99 99 00 1-4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Years

Source: Own calculation based on data from the State Statistics Committee Republic of Tajikistan

1.3. Brief overview of environmental problems

The history of the settlement in the valleys and foothill zones of the country began in 1930 and continued until 1980. During these years the population was forced by the authorities to move from the foothill and mountain regions into the valley areas of the country, in particular to achieve land development in Vakhsh valley and convert the agricultural grounds for cotton-growing. At that time, an active fight against salinization was undertaken with significant success.

At the beginning of the 1970s, the tillable acreage for cultivation of cotton in foothill areas (Yavan, Garauti, Obikiik, Kabodien) was increased. This decision/executive decree led to degradation of environment due to irrigation of the foothill areas combined with the soil friability. This has led in recent times to landslides. Fortunately, these places were not populated, otherwise the landslides could have led to migration and human losses.

The beginning of 1990s presented a serious test for the country, as civil war, economic reforms, and social unrest led to reverse migration of the population from urban to rural areas. This process took place until the middle of the 1990s. This process increased the pressure (population per unit arable land) in rural areas. At that time, the process of uncontrolled use of the agricultural grounds by the population began in the mountain areas, where the slope exceeds 45 degrees. This process also significantly affected the environment and in many regions of the country, it became the reason for landslides. In some regions it caused destruction of

5 houses and forced migration. In some foothill regions the irrigated lands were located above villages and led to landslides and destruction of houses. In general, the low educational level of populations in ecology accelerated the processes of the environmental degradation during recent years. The results of a survey in the areas where landslides occurred showed that these cases were a relatively rare phenomena in recent times.

In general the literature review suggests that soil degradation is probably among the main reasons for the acceleration of migration, because it leads to the decrease of food supply, worsening of conditions and the standard of life of the population in rural areas. Intensive pasturing of livestock in the mountainous ecosystems causes destruction of biological diversity and influences the development of erosion processes. The area of saline soil is around 15% of irrigated fields of the country. This is problematic because there is insufficient arable land - approximately 0.11 ha of irrigated field per capita. At present, 87,000 ha of land are in unsatisfactory condition, including 48 thousand hectares with a high level of subsoil water; 24.4 thousand hectares of saline soil; 14.6 thousand hectares are affected by both factors 4.

At present, the government is introducing laws and various measures for environmental protection. For instance, in the “Document Poverty Reduction Strategy-25 (DPRS-2), in the sector “Food Security and Development of Agriculture” there is a plan to reduce the salinity level as well as water-logging in the total area of farm lands by 2% and 3% respectively by 2009. In the same document, in the section “Guarantee of Ecological Resistance,” the forest areas and the land areas set aside for maintenance of biodiversity are to be increased by 5% and 3% respectively by 2009. At the same time, the area of the degraded land is to be reduced to 5%. It is not clear how these measures will be implemented.

Another example is the adoption of the National Plan of Action for Protection of the Environment (NAPPE)-2006 6 which set political and national targets that can be divided into four groups:

- problems of water, earth and air pollution;

- resource depletion, such as forests, land resources per capita, disappearance of biological diversity;

- environmental health;

- natural disasters, especially flood, mudflows, and landslides.

4 Ahmadov Kh. M. «Contemporary problems of land degradation and ways of their prevention», Research Soil Institute – Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS), Collection article: “Ways of increasing soil productivity in Tajikistan”, Dushanbe, 2007. P-184. 5 Document Poverty Reduction Strategy-2, Dushanbe- 2007. 6 National Plan of Action for Protection of the Environment (NPAPE) - 2006. p. 21

6 According to this document, at the moment, there are well-defined regions with environmental degradation. For example, the disappearance of pine forests in Sugd and Zerafshan and disappearance of savanna forests in Istaravshan and Isfara.

Many researchers have carried out detailed studies on the issue of climate change and how it leads to the increased frequency of natural disasters. The “State of the Environment report” shows an increase of the air temperature in the wide valleys of Tajikistan of 0.7-1.2°C annually. In large cities, the increase of the near surface temperature was especially significant and reached 1.2-1.9°C, which can be associated with urbanization. The increase of temperature in the mountain areas was lower (0.1-0.7°C), and only in the mountains of central Tajikistan, Rushan and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan river, was there a small decline in a temperature (0.1-0.3°C).

A comparison between the valley and high-mountainous areas shows that the increase of the temperature takes place in the valley whereas a reduction is observed in high-mountainous area. The 1990s was the warmest decade during the period of instrumental observations in Tajikistan, and 1997 and 2001 the warmest years 7.

The trends in precipitation in Tajikistan are not uniform. In 1961-1990 in the mountains of Central Tajikistan, as well as in the valleys of southwest and northern Tajikistan, foothills of Turkestan range and Eastern Pamir, a reduction in the amount of annual precipitation of 1-20% was observed. In Karategin-Darvaz and Western Pamir, from the altitude of 1,500 m and higher, and in Western Pamir, the amount of precipitation has increased by 12-18%. For the period of instrumental observations the most arid years in Tajikistan were 1944 and 2000, when a precipitation deficit of 30-70% was observed all over the territory of the country. The most humid year was 1969, when precipitation was as much as 1.5-2 times above the long-term average.

One example of environmental degradation can be found in the village Hojikala (Jami region), which is characterized by soil salinity and a high level of subsoil water. Mudflows come unexpectedly to this village almost every year (according to the words of respondents) and destroy everything all around. The same situation is also observed in the village Firuza-2 of the N. Hisrav region, but this area was already the place of destination for migrants. This question will be discussed in further detail in following sections of this report.

Two individual stories - from one non-migrant and one migrant – illustrate the effects of environmental change on the individual level:

Story 1. Woman of 48 years (non-migrant) Jami district, Navabad village

I was born in this place. The environment deteriorates more and more every year. We have been living for almost 10 years in the degraded area. There are about 20 households in this village. The approximate number of inhabitants of the village is

7 State of the Environment report, Tajikistan 2002. www.meteo.tj

7 almost 400 people. Every year there are mudflows in the village, which contributes greatly to further degradation. In recent years salinity has strongly increased, all drainages are filled already due to the increase of the level of subsoil water. 7-8 years ago 10-15 households left this place and settled in Navabod village (new village) in this region. Mudflows which destroyed their houses forced them to leave. Since our houses remained safe, we continue to live here. There is no common opinion among those who left this place. Some of them say that it was difficult at the beginning and now the situation has improved but some of them still feel sorry that they moved. There was only one case when one family returned to the place of origin since they could not settle in another place. The situation deteriorates day by day and we do not expect any improvement. If the authorities allot ground in any region of the country and, importantly, there must be suitable conditions, I would not live here for a minute. I cannot expect help from my friends or relatives, since they themselves live in difficult conditions. So the only hope is that the Government will help. My husband and I worked in agriculture, and got ground from the President but it was washed off by the mudflow. At present, we do not have any ground, and livestock is the only animal-stock. There are often problems with the fodder for livestock and if necessary we’ll sell some of the livestock. The main reasons for the decrease of the number of animal-stock in recent years are the following: shortage of drinking water; diseases; to get money for the purchase of other products; to pay off the debts, because of the poor state of pastures. Our family consists of 4 people: the children go to school, my husband and I are unemployed.

The second story concerns migrants, whose family was moved together with many others from one degraded area to another degraded place - to the village Firuza-2 of the N.Hisrav district of the Khatlon region.

Story 2: Man of 69 years (migrant)

I was born and lived with this family in the village Dasht of the Roshtkala district MBAR. I have only once experienced environmental problems. Everything occurred at night. We heard a loud crash and voices and ran out of the house. I saw that my neighbours, the inhabitants of the upper village Baroj, left their houses. The mudflow rushed through the village at night on August 7, 2002. The event was so rapid, that all villagers had time only to save themselves. Everything was destroyed in a few minutes. As a result, 45 houses were completely destroyed. The remaining 27 houses were seriously damaged and it was impossible to stay here. There were no human casualties. As a result, 72 households from the village Dasht of Roshtkala district, MBAR were moved to the villages Firuza-1 (27 households) and Firuza-2 (45 households) in the N. Hisrav district of the Khatlon region. We did not have any choice and had to leave this place since our houses had been destroyed. We settled in the places determined by the Government because we ourselves had no financial possibility to move anywhere.

The houses in the places of destination for the environmentally forced migrants were built by the Government. People lived in the tents during the first 20 days. Subsistence was provided. Different international organizations provided help too. In

8 the place of destination, most of the migrants had problems with their kidneys because of the salinity of the drinking water. We were born in the high-mountainous area and after we were moved to the valley, the health of the migrants was affected by this sudden change (about 3500-4500 meters in place of origin and 1000-1500 meters in place of destination). After being moved here we faced other problems: environmental degradation such as salinity and the high level of subsoil water. Where we currently live, environmental conditions are somewhat better than those of other migrants who live in village Firuza-2. Where I originally lived I had irrigated ground and pasture for the livestock so we lived sufficiently well. Many neighbors already left this area and at the first opportunity, we will also leave this place. The main source of income for our family in this place is remittances from my son, who is a labour migrant in the Russian Federation. Although I’m a pensioner I continue working as a teacher in the rural secondary school because there are no teachers. In my free time, I work on my farmland, I grow various vegetables for family consumption. Soil productivity is too low for the above-mentioned reasons. We have no financial means to move from this area to another place.

1.4. Brief overview of internal migration processes

Starting with the time when the country became independent, migration flows have increased and undoubtedly influenced the ratio between urban and rural populations, the ethnic composition of the population, and the age-sex distribution of the population in both urban and rural areas. The deterioration of the social, economic and political situation in the country caused by political and socio-economic instability which occurred in the beginning of 1990s became the main drivers of the increase of both internal and international migration.

The intensity of internal migration in the country is related to the beginning of the civil war. Large population movements moved from other areas within the country to the Sogd region because the political conditions were more stable in this region. The high level of internal migration during and after the civil war has qualitatively affected the structure of the population both in urban and rural areas. In the cities there was an outflow of highly educated scientific and technical people and a corresponding inflow of unskilled or semi-skilled people from the countryside.

Refugees also returned to the country as a result of the civil war. In 1996, in the whole country the number of refugees was 697,600. Owing to intensive pressure from international organizations, the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan and other political movements managed to return 682,800 refugees to their places of residence and work. The refugees were largely from the city of Dushanbe, the former Kurgonteppa region (now part of Khatlon region) and the Rasht areas of DDS region. Originally, refugees from Khatlon region (viloyat) went to Dushanbe city and the cities of Sogd region (viloyat). The second wave consisted of the population from the DDS region (Darvoz district which moved in to ) and the Sogd region.

Permanent migration, in contrast to the temporary or seasonal migration, is found in all social, economic and demographic groups. A persistent lack of data on migration

9 in each region of the country means that it is impossible to carry out an analysis of migration activity and to compare it with other areas and to find relationships between migration activity from the degraded areas and problems connected with the environment. However, there are some data at the regional level concerning the permanent internal migration of populations between regions of the country which can be summarized as follows 8:

• The population of the Khatlon region, DDS and MBAR have a positive net migration in urban areas, while Dushanbe city and the Sogd region have negative net migration;

• The rural population in all regions of the country has negative net migration;

• Only Dushanbe has a positive net migration in population exchange with the other regions of the country;

• There are more male migrants than female migrants;

• Migration outflow from the Khatlon region is observed both in urban and in rural areas;

• Urban areas of the Sogd region have a net inflow from both urban and rural areas, whereas rural areas of this region have outflow;

• There is more inter-regional migration than intra-regional and inter-district migration;

• In 2003 rural areas had positive balance of migration, while in the period of 1995-2002 this balance was negative.

Urban places have an inflow of migration while rural areas have out-migration during the period of 1995-2003. Environmental degradation is likely to be one of the causal factors. However, there are no data concerning migration from degraded areas in specific regions of the country. While environmental degradation is not the only reason behind migration decisions, it has an indirect effect. The worsening of the economic situation of the family and the reduction of the living standard became the reasons for external or internal labour migration. This was noted by respondents during the fieldwork. Factors such as the decrease of the soil fertility and different kinds of soil degradation were registered among other answers, such as unemployment, low wage level, etc.

1.5. External Migration - Trends and Pattern

8 Khakimov P. Sh. “Internal Migration and Urbanization Processes in the Republic of Tajikistan” (Based on the data State Statistic Committeee Republic of Tajikistan between 1995-2003), Institute of Demography Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan, 2005, (unpublished report)

10 The international migration pattern in Tajikistan in the approximately 60 years after the Second World War can be divided into four main phases (See figure 1.4a):

• First phase – Tajikistan was a country of immigration (1948-1975)

• Second phase – Beginning of the emigration process (1976-1990)

• Third phase – acceleration of emigration processes related to Civil War, Collapse of the USSR and the gaining of independence, political and socio-economic crisis (1992-1997).

• Fourth phase – new migration trend - External Labour Migration (1997 to date)

The first and second phase of migration are closely interrelated, because the non- national people who arrived in the country up until 1975 started to the leave the country until 1991. Between 1951 and 1975, Tajikistan was a country of immigration, which was related to the development processes in the country.

Figure1.4a Net External Migration of the Population Republic of Tajikistan between 1951 and 1997.

50 Immigration Emigration Net migration 40

30

20

Per000 10

0

-10 1951 1953 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 -20 Years

Source; own calculation based on data from State Statistic Committee Republic of Tajikistan

From Figures 1.4a and 1.4b it becomes clear that the emigration processes accelerated due to socio-economic and political instability (third phase of migration). Moreover the emigration processes stabilized since 1998 and the start of a new era of migration processes in the country, so called External Labour Migration.

Figure1.4b. Population Change (per 000) and Rate of Population Growth (%) between 1990 and 2006

11 33,3 33 25,9 30 24,7 26 26,6 25,9 24,6 27,2 22,5 28 28,2 22,3 22,7 22,2 22,6 22 22 24 23,6 21,7 23,1 20,3 21,1 21,5 19,8 20,4 20,7 20,5 20,6

14 18,9 9 12,3 6 2,2 2,1 2,8 0,9 1,2 1,9 2,2 2 2,3 2,4 2,4 2 2 2,1 2,1 2,1

-2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 99 19 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 199 19 20 20 20 20 20 200 -11,3 -2,9 -17 -4,8 -2,6 -2,3 -2,2 -2 -1,7 -1,4 -1,4 -10 -6,7 -2 -5,3 -8,2 -18 -12,3

Rate of Growth Total Increase Natural Increase Migration Increase

Source: own calculation based on data from the State Statistic Committee Republic of Tajikistan

External Labour Migration (ELM) is the new trend of migration in the country and the volume of people involved in this process is huge compared to the other type of migration in recent years. The main factors which push people to ELM include low income, high level of unemployment among the youth, poverty and social stratification of population. ELM reduces the pressure on national labour markets. In recent years ELM became one of the main sources of income for many households and thus contributes to poverty reduction in the country. For instance, in 1999 according to the World Bank data, the level of poverty in Tajikistan was 83% and this was reduced to 56% in 2008. The role of remittances of migrant was an important factor. In 2007, Tajikistan, with 36.2% was the country with the highest share of remittances as a percentage of GDP. According to the National Bank of Tajikistan data from January-September 2008, the volume of remittances reached 2 billion US$, which is double the volume for the same period in 2007. In comparison, the expected GDP in 2009 would be 6 billion US$.9

Remittances can potentially generate substantial welfare gains at least for migrants and their families 10 . The increase in remittance flows leads to a decline in labor supply in the labor exporting country and an increase in private consumption that is biased toward non-tradable goods.11 Several studies have recognized remittances to be a more stable, counter-cyclical, and countervailing source of foreign capital than the volatile and disruptive, private capital flows such as portfolio investment (IADB 2004; Orozco 2004a; IMF 2005, WB, 2006a, Schrooten, 2006). In summary, with regard to ELM, we can draw following conclusions:

9 ca-news.org 10 Mughal A., IOM Tajikistan study - 2007 11 Acosta et all (2007)

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• Economic development has been experienced as a result of LM (Labour Migration) supported poverty reduction among the most vulnerable and poor population in the whole country, but essentially in countryside.

• Economic development remains unstable due to the expenditure structure of remittances. Due to low income of labour migrants, expenditures are mostly consumption rather than for savings and future investment to support development. Hence there is a vicious circle: labour migration leads to further migration to keep the income flow coming. While the rate of population growth remains high, the size of the potentially economically active population remains high as well in the medium term.

• LM remains among the main sources of family income, but remittances are not permanent income due to seasonal or temporary character of LM.

The migration intensity in regions of the country was unequal in 2005 as shown by the household survey.12 By indirect estimation and through different sources of information about migration and environmental degradation, we can see that in districts which faced different environmental problems (such as soil salinity, high level of subsoil water, flooding, landslides), the intensity of ELM was higher than in districts which were not faced by such environmental problems. Below we analyze and discuss some data from this survey which prove these relationships (for more detail see Table 1.4.1 in Annex).

According to above-mentioned household survey data a high percentage of the total number of external labour migrants are from 5 districts of MBAR. The smallest number of ELM are from the Rushan district (10.8%) and the largest from the Shugnan district (21.7%). Lack of the data concerning the size of the economically active population does not allow an estimation of the percentage of labour migrants from the total economically active population. Nevertheless, looking at the percentage of migrants from the regions of MBAR and the total population we can see that the larger percentage is registered in the Roshtkala (mud stream) and Vanj districts, where ELM amounts to 10.6% and 10% of the total population of these regions respectively.

The same situation exists in the Khatlon region, where the higher migration activity of the population is in the districts where there are problems connected with the environment. More than 96% of ELM is in 11 districts. The ratio of migrants to the total population of the region varies from 5.5% (Hamadoni and Farhar districts which often faced flooding in recent years) to 10.7% (Jami region which experiences soil salinity and high level of subsoil water).13

12 Household surveys conducted by Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of Population about the numbers of ELM in 2005. 13 Mahmadbekov M. M: “Analysis of External Labour Migration and Demographic Development in the Republic of Tajikistan”, Institute of Demography Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan, 2005, (unpublished report).

13

The most active population among the 22 cities and districts in the Sogd regions is in the places characterized by the presence of different kinds of the environmental degradation. The highest percentage of ELM is registered in the districts of Penjakent, Aini, Asht and in the cities Isfara, Taboshar and Chkalovsk. From the total number of ELM from the Sogd region almost 16% and more than 17% are registered in the Panjakent and Kanibadam districts respectively. Panjakent and Ayni districts are characterized by mudflows and landslides - the most frequent environmental problems, whereas in the Kanibadam districts, the environmental degradation is primarily soil degradation. Almost 20% of the population of the Sogd region lives in these two districts (Panjakent and Kanibadam). However, more than 20% of the population of the region lives in the cities of Istaravshan and Isfara, where environmental problems are a rare phenomenon compared to the above-mentioned two regions. Environmental degradation occurs also in Istaravshan and Isfara, but there is less ELM than in the Kanibadam and Panjakent districts. Another factor underlying migration activity in Penjakent region is its remoteness from the provincial center and the capital of the country on the one hand, and poor roads and closed outer boundaries with Uzbekistan on the other, which in turn accelerate migration processes.

The cities of Chkalovsk and Taboshar (Sogd region) were among the most industrialized of the Republic of Tajikistan before the collapse of the USSR. Chemical enterprises located in these cities led to high levels of radioactivity and air pollution. After the collapse of the USSR, these enterprises were closed and the level of radioactivity and air pollution has gone down. The size of the population in these cities remained stable or has increased in recent years, but the ethnic composition of the population completely changed. The share of ELM in these cities is 6.3% and 9.4% respectively. The total net migration from the country between 1989-1999 was 455,735 (See Table 1.4.2).

Table 1.4.2 External Permanent Migration Population the Republic of Tajikistan by ethnic group between 1989 and 1999 (census data) Immigrants Emigrants Net Migration Nationality Abs. No % Abs. No % Abs. No % Tajik 26,204 24,4 64,973 12,1 -38,769 8,5 Russian 35,483 33,1 268,755 50,1 -233,272 51,2 German 1,372 1,3 41,152 7,7 -39,780 8,7 Ukraine 4,057 3,8 27,373 5,1 -23,316 5,1 Uzbek 19,888 18,5 74,248 13,9 -54,360 11,9 Tatar 7,374 6,9 56,521 10,5 -49,147 10,8 Jewish 576 0,5 21,556 4,0 -20,980 4,6 Belarus 664 0,6 5,150 1,0 -4,486 1,0 Azerbaijan 387 0,4 1,582 0,3 -1,195 0,3 Kyrgyz 3,410 3,2 10,242 1,9 6,832 -1,5 Kazakh 854 0,8 6,401 1,2 -5,547 1,2 Total 107,331 100,0 536,084 100,0 -455,753 100,0

14 Source: Own calculation based on Census data 1989 and 2000, State Statistic Committee Republic of Tajikistan

In DDS, the most ELM is observed in the Jirgital, Rasht, Rudaki districts – 9.6%; 8.4%; and 7.3% respectively. 31% of ELM of DDS comes from the . This district is the largest in DDS (in the country also), more than 20% of population of this region live here. Rudaki is one of the districts with a wide range of different environmental problems.

The population of MBAR is 3.2% of the total population of the Republic, but the share of ELM is 4.4% of the total number of ELM from Tajikistan. Almost 36% of population lives in the Khatlon region and the share of migrants is more than 41% from the total number of migrants. The lowest migration activity in ELM is observed in Dushanbe. Its population is 9.6% of the total population of the country, and the share of migrants is only 3.6% of the total number of ELM.

In the investigation of ELM in Tajikistan, we conclude that the population migrates not only because of the lack of a jobs, low incomes, etc. but probably also in connection with environmental problems as well, which accelerate ELM together with above-mentioned factors.

2. METHODS

A literature review on this topic revealed that the research community is unanimous in finding that about 95% of the country’s territory is subject to environmental degradation. It is said that every year, 50 thousand hectares of cultivated land undergoes different degrees of desertification. We did not find any literature mentioning migration of population due to environmental problems, but most of the literature mentioned different kinds of environmental degradation such as soil salinity and soil erosion, landslides, mudflow, increasing level of subsoil water, flooding, deforestation and desertification (for instance, see Ahmadov Kh.M., Gulmahmadov D.K., 2007; Abdualimov B., 2007; Sultanov M., 1997; Yakutilov M.R., 1974; Akramov U., 1984; UN, 2004; Ahmadov, 2007).

Then the survey was undertaken. Interviews and meetings were conducted with the experts (researchers, representatives of the Government agencies and departments, NGO and international organizations).

3. FIELDWORK FINDINGS & ANALYSIS

3.1 Information obtained from the researchers

Salinity, land erosion, secondary salinity, water-logging, desertification, and deforestation are especially frequent phenomenon as shown by the interviews and literature review. We have identified the regions in which different kinds of soil degradation and an increase of the level of subsoil water most frequently occur. We examined the results and made corresponding conclusions during field visits.

15

UN reports refer to the fact that 15% of the arable lands in the country are saline and 15% are water-logged as the result of human activity and they cannot be used for agriculture. Moreover, every year in the country, in particular in the Khatlon and Sogd regions, more than 1000 hectares of the land become unusable for agriculture due to an increase of the acreage of saline land. At the moment, about 40,000 hectares of the land suffer from salinity and 40,000 hectares from water-logging 14 . However, no report or study reveals any data proving that migration is forced by environmental degradation. Also, there is no reference to data concerning forced migration caused by environmental degradation in any reports by ministries, departments and agencies.

Field studies in the N. Hisrav district (village Firuza-2) revealed the presence of salinity and a high level of subsoil water. In village Navabod, Hamadoni district (place of destination of migrants) and in the village Metantova (place of origin of migrants) the increase of the level of subsoil water was evident. As a result of the flooding of the Pyanj river there was forced migration of the population from Metantova village. The water destroyed land and houses.

3.2 Information obtained from the experts of states ministries, departments, and agencies

From expert interviews, we were able to identify the places of destination and origin of migrants, where we then therefore carried out the fieldwork interviews with migrants and non-migrants. From the (incomplete) list of districts, from which people are moved because of environmental reasons, we can define two groups:

(1) those affected by landslides and mudflows in mountainous districts, such as Rasht, , Ragun, Nurobod, Panjakent, Aini, Muminabad, Shakhristan, Ganchi, Darvoz, Vanch, Ishkoshim, Roshtkala, Shugnan, Asht, Hovaling, Jirgital, Nurobod, ;

(2) those affected by flooding and mud streams in valley districts (Asht, Hamadoni, Farkhor, Vose).

The Government provided two types of information on internal migration; resettlement of the population as a result of exogenous factors and voluntary resettlement of the population from the landlocked area to valley area of the country. Migration from the places which are under the action of exogenous factors is a widespread phenomenon in the country. According to the long-term plan for the migration of households affected by exogenous factors for the period of 2000-2004, about 7664 households 15 were moved in the country, and in the period of 2005-2010 a further 7200 households 16 are to be moved.

14 Project overview environmental condition in Tajikistan. First overview, council economic and social aspects, UN, August, 2004. 15 Annex to Governmental Decree Republic of Tajikistan from 4 August 1999, No344. 16 Annex to Governmental Decree Republic of Tajikistan from 4 March 2005, No99

16

The Government has resettled people to safer places of residence. Under the scheduled resettlements of the population between 1955 and 1970, a number of attempts of violent resettlement were made to resettle the population from the mountainous Vanj district to the Gorauty valley district, from the mountainous Mastchoh district and Jagnob village to Zafarobad and Buston districts. Some of the people that migrated vanished and others returned to the place of origin. Nowadays the government continues to resettle people. For instance, in 2001 from the Shugnon mountainous landlocked district of the VMKB region, 50 households were voluntarily resettled to the N. Hisrav district (village Firuza-2), Khatlon region.17 In 2004, 38 households left due to the lack of elementary living conditions in this place of destination and resettled in other places within the country. They did not return to the place of origin. The survey showed that in the place of destination the resettled households faced environmental degradation such as soil salinity, a high level of subsoil water and lack of fresh drinking water. The respondents said that they were not well informed about the place of destination and of the 50 households that were resettled, only 3 remain. In other places of destination we found that earlier resettlement programs by the government were more successful. (For instance, from Shing village into Sarazm village of Panjakent district and migrants from the village Kamar (Chorvodor) to the village Makhmadali Gaffor Kulyab district).

The steps in resettlement are:

• The Committee of Tajik Geology defines ecologically hazardous zones on the basis of the investigation of places in the regions;

• The State Committee of Land Tenure and their regional representatives appropriate land for migration of population from the ecologically hazardous zones, and the Local Executive Committee takes the decision about the definite area for settlement;

• The Ministry of Finance appropriates necessary funds for these purposes;

• The Department of Migration of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population carries out the resettlement of the population.

• Tn cases of sudden natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides and mudflows, the Committee on Emergency Situations of the Republic of Tajikistan evacuates the population from the destroyed area.

The legal basis for resettlement due to environmental factors is provided by:

• Decree of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan dated March 4, 2005 “On granting of privilege credit and rendering of onetime aid to households

17 State Department for Migration, Ministry of Labour and Social Protection in the Republic of Tajikistan, 2005.

17 which will be moved from the exogenous hazardous zones within the period 2005-2010.”

• Decree of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan dated November 9, 2000 under №467 “On the assertion of Regulations about the order of the migration of households from ecologically hazardous zones of the Republic”.

• Decree of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan dated December 2, 2003 under №517 “Order and sum of rendering of onetime aid to the population, who suffered in the result of natural disasters”.

In the country various projects related to the environmental issues were implemented to protect biodiversity, to prepare the national communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and to improve the national greenhouse gas inventory. Most of this work has been supported by international funding (e.g. from the Global Environment Facility).

3.3 Responses to questionnaires

3.3.1 Conclusions about migrants

• Natural disasters such as landslides, floods, mudflows and so forth are the main reason for migration of the population. However it is incorrect to refer all of them solely to the natural disasters.

• The main deterrents are the presence of other sources of income and means of subsistence (external and internal seasonal or temporary labour migration of family members), unwillingness to leave the native places of ancestors, the absence of the possibility to move independently, since the financial possibilities of the family are restricted, as noted by many respondents. However, all of them are in the state of potential migrants and they are ready to leave at the appearance of the least chance for migration.

• The increased frequency of landslides is largely the result of the low educational level of population in ecology and incorrect use of the land and the construction of dwellings in the places at high risk of mudflows.

• The destruction of the house due to a natural disaster (e.g. landslides in the village Kiblai, Rudaki district) often leads to migration. If the house remains, then migration usually does not occur.

• The majority of forced migrants have contacts with the place of origin and are employed (continue to work) in the agricultural sector. The land provided by

18 the authorities for the organization of dehkan farms 18 , as well as the lands dedicated by President 19 are one of the sources of income for their families.

• For the majority of migrants, migration caused by environmental degradation has only happened once in their life;

• Some of them had experienced migration in the distant past, when they were forced by authorities to move for the development of virgin lands in 1930- 1970.

Migrants from the degraded areas can be categorized into two main groups, according to the level of satisfaction with the new place of destination:

o Those who are generally satisfied with the place of destination, although they want to have larger land area for agriculture and pastures for cattle. (Example: migrants from the village Shing to the village Sarazm of the Panjakent district (in this place there is no threat of landslides, mudflows), migrants from the village Kamar (Chorvodor) to the village Makhmadali Gaffor Kulyab district (but in contrast to the first place there is the probability of flood, which can cause further migration).

o Those who are not satisfied because the new area either lacked infrastructure or was also environmentally degraded. For example, migrants complained of the absence of water for irrigation and some infrastructure inconveniences. However, because of the worse situation in the place of origin they are not going to return so they belong to the category of potential migrants. (Example, migrants from the village Vashang to the village Dashtikon-1 (Istaravshan district) and Dashtikon-2 (Ganchi district), migrants from the village Revad to the village Dashti Kozi (Aini district), migrants to the village Navobod from the village Metantova (Hamadoni dictrict) and so forth. Furthermore, there are those who were moved from one degraded area into another degraded area. For example, from village Dasht (Roshtkala district, MBAR) to villages Firuza- 2 and Firuza-1 (living conditions in village Firuza-2 are comparatively better, but signs of soil degradation are obvious).

3.3.2 Conclusions about non-migrants

• Environmental degradation caused by salinity and erosion of soil, desertification, deforestation, increased level of subsoil water, is currently not the main reason for the departure of population from the degraded areas within country.

Non-migrants who live in the degraded places can be conditionally subdivided into the following groups:

18 Peasants’ farms. 19 By two different Presidential Decrees 50,000 and 25,000 hectares of arable land were distributed among the peasants for long term use.

19

o Those who continue to live in the places with obvious signs of environmental degradation such as soil salinity, soil erosion, high level of subsoil waters, desertification, but are not planning on moving. Some key determining factors of why they do not have plans to migrate include other sources of income, relative security of their dwelling, or attachment to their ancestors’ land. In the absence of a serious deterioration of the standard of living, these families do not migrate. Among them are non-migrants who had the possibility to leave their places but they did not do so, although the authorities gave them land and aid for construction of houses (some families sold the land areas obtained).

o Those who would move if necessary. Among them are non-migrants who did not leave places of destination because of landslides, flood, mudflows, since their houses were not significantly impacted. This category however would relocate if forced to by another environmental disaster. The local population says that there is threat of the repetition of recent flood at any time.

o Those who are ready to move to another place immediately but have no financial capability to do so independently and hope for the authorities’ support.

o Non-migrants who moved some time ago and live in the houses built with the aid of the authorities, but at the present continue to “commute” between the points of origin and destination.

3.3.3 Conclusions about absence or lack of development of the market for insurance services in the country, which could influence migratory activity of the population

• The lack of market development for different kinds of insurance means that it currently plays no role in reducing migration connected with degradation of the environment.

• The degree of the information about different kinds of insurance can be sufficient, but low incomes and lack of faith that they can get insurance for houses restricts development of the insurance market.

• Development of the insurance market can have negative effects through strengthening migration from degraded places leading to problems of overpopulation of some places (essentially in urban centers) and strengthening of the processes of permanent external migration.

3.3.4 Conclusion about further action of authorities

20 • For local authorities, it is necessary to undertake measures for reduction of problems until 2009 in order to avoid undesirable migration flows in the country, as indicated in the document Poverty Reduction Strategy-2.

• Resettlement of the population at governmental level must be supported by both sides (migrants and government), because the migration streams are mainly from low to high living conditions. Providing better conditions in places of destination compared to places of origin requires different redistribution policies.

3.4. Analysis of Data Obtained

We visited all districts of the Vaksh valley (Djami, Vaksh, Kumsangir, Jilikul, N. Khisrav, Shaartuz, Kabodijan, Bohtar, Javan), Kanibadam, Isfara and Asht districts in the north of country. The inhabitants were asked the question: “Were there any cases when the local population left because of the degradation of environment in recent years?”

The results of fieldwork showed that environmental degradation, such as soil degradation, desertification, and the increase of the level of subsoil water and so on, is not the main reason for migration, whereas reduction of the incomes of the people who are employed in agriculture was an accelerator of ELM, i.e. degradation of the environment was one of the several factors leading to ELM for individuals, but not households. Moreover, respondents in these places note that their whole families have no wish to leave native places forever because it’s their ancestors’ land, and there is no financial possibility to move to another place. Thus we came to the conclusion that there are many factors together with the environmental degradation which cause temporary and seasonal, external or internal labour migration of individuals.

The low level of migration activity in these places is related to the large family size that adversely affects migration activity.

One of the most frequently occurring kinds of environmental degradation in the country is landslides which caused forced migration in the pre-mountainous regions because of soil friability (in the Yavan-Obikiik and Dangara valleys, in certain parts of the Rudaki district; this phenomenon can be frequently met in the mountainous Ayni and Panjakent districts on the north part of the country).

Land degradation due to the wind or windy erosion takes place in the south of country (Shaartuz, Kabodien) on the north of the country in Sogd region (Kanibadam, Gafurov, Spitamen, Zafarabad) in the east of the country in Murgab district of MBAR.

The results of field study in these regions showed that this kind of environmental degradation is not yet the reason for the migration of the population. Members of the

21 families which have labour migrants note that economic reasons of migration prevail above other factors.

The low level of soil productivity and consequent reduction of incomes are not the reason for forced migration today. A lot of additional questions also arose – for instance, why the population or individuals keep living in the places with obvious signs of land degradation. Especially important is the fact that many respondents noted that any degradation except natural disasters (floods, landslides, mudflows, earthquakes which can destroy of their houses) cannot force them to change their place of residence. Only in case of reduction of the family’s income do individuals leave to earn money (ELM or internal labour migration), and the remaining members of the family keep on living in the ancestors’ land. Forced migrants said: “If there had been no natural disasters we would have never left our place of origin regardless of the standard of life of the family.” It is a possible characteristic feature of Tajik people or it may be attributed to the mentality of traditionally large families and should be considered in future research.

The investigation of the group of non-migrants shows that people keep on living in the places with obvious signs of different types of environmental degradation because they simply have no possibility to leave this place and/or they have other sources of income (remittances from the migrants) or they are unwilling to leave their ancestral land.

It was very difficult to determine any correlation between the industrial environmental pollution and possible reasons for migration from the industrial zones of the country - Taboshar, Isfara, Chkalovsk etc. Firstly, ,the people who lived in these industrial zones were not indigenous at the beginning of 1990s in that many of the native population left because of the political, economic, and social crisis. Secondly, the departure of people from the areas of industrial pollution was compensated by the arrival of others. Further studies of this phenomenon would be interesting.

Migration from the environmentally hazardous areas of the country occurs due to landslides, floods, mudflows and earthquakes which are characteristic of the mountainous areas of the country. For instance, in recent years, 101 families were moved by the Government from the districts Ishkashim, Rushan, Vanj, Kalaikhumb, Shugnan, Roshtkala (MBAR) into the villages Firuza-1 and Firuza-2. At the moment (based on the account of one respondent who continues to live in the degraded area) only 18 families remained from total number households which were resettled by the government in recent years. Those who remained have sources of income other than agriculture or they do not have financial capability to leave. During last 3-4 years, the population left their places of residence because of: the lack of work in the agriculture sector (due to the high level of subsoil water, salinity of drinking water, etc). The degradation also had significant impacts on their health. This is confirmed by the respondents of this region. The 75 families which were moved from the village Dasht of the Roshtkala region left the new place of destination due to above mentioned reasons. Many families live now in different regions of the country. Some of them took up residence in the Sharora settlement of the Gissar district (according

22 to the words of the respondents who continue live in the new place of destination); some families live in the Rudaki district (state farm Leningrad), in Dushanbe city, but they did not return to the place of origin.

Landslides have increased in frequency due to deforestation (according to academic experts). Migration of the population from environmentally hazardous (natural disasters) zones of the country into safer zones takes place with financial support of the authorities and financial support of international organizations. Mudflows and floods also remain a key factor which affect the livelihoods of the population and become the reason for forced environmental migration in Tajikistan. The analysis of the migration processes connected with the environment degradation shows that many problems of the environment in the country are connected with water, since 60% of water stock in Central Asia is located in the Republic of Tajikistan.

5. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH

In all regions, different kinds of the environmental degradation are observed, but the population continues to live there since it has no financial capability to leave and/or they do they wish to leave their native land.

The migration of the population as a result of environmental degradation is a complex phenomenon; its magnitude could grow exponentially, if the necessary nature conservation measures are not undertaken. Furthermore, with the current steady growth of the population the pressure on the environment is growing.

It is very difficult to project the development of migratory processes related to environmental factors because of the complex relationships. However, it is necessary to continue this line of investigation.

This study has shown that environmentally forced migration interacts with many other factors that have fundamental importance, but environmental degradation is certainly a primary force for migration.

Climate change is leading to an increased frequency of floods and mudflows as a result of glaciers melting in the high mountain regions in recent decades. The processes of soil degradation such as desertification, deforestation, salinity, different kinds of land erosion, water logging, and increase of the level of subsoil water are also important, and they can cause migration by environmental degradation in the future, if the inhabitants of these degraded zones have no other sources of income. Continuation of these trends could lead to social unrest and chaotic migration to the urban areas of the country. As a whole, environmental degradation could lead to a worsening of the social, economic, and maybe the political situation in the country, if the authorities do not take measures to avert the problems.

Three aspects are especially important with regard to environmentally forced migration: information, knowledge and role of the state, society, and the international community. The integrated analysis of the three pillars of sustainable development

23 (economic, social and environment) would ensure better investigation of the complexity of the problems and it help to find solutions. It is necessary to develop the knowledge base that is connected with the local context, as well as to carry out analysis and consultation with the national and local stakeholder groups.20

Furthermore, it is especially important to concentrate attention on the development of root causes of environmental degradation. Special attention should be given to the further study of environmental degradation as a result of industrial pollution. It would be desirable to carry out further studies along this line, since within the framework of this investigation we could not find people who left (since they went abroad) because of the environmental degradation in Chkalovsk, Taboshar and Isfara.

In our opinion, in further studies it would be necessary to develop and to use separate modules of questionnaire for the migrants and non-migrants, with transparent distinction between different types of the environmental degradation. This research was the first and correct step in the study of the forced migration caused by environmental degradation in the Republic of Tajikistan. Results of the study will help to focus efforts of all stakeholders on providing guarantees of sustainable development of environment as one of three pillars of sustainable development alongside with the economic and social development.

20 Richard Filcak. Migration and the environment in Central Asia: The case of Ferghana Valley. [Overview study], February 2008.

24 Meetings and Interview with Experts

Sanginov S. R. – Director Scientific-research Institute of Soil, Academy of Agricultural Sciences Republic of Tajikistan.

Aliev I. C. – Scientific-research Institute of Soil, Academy of Agricultural Sciences Republic of Tajikistan.

Akramov U. A. - Corresponding Member Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Scientific-research Institute of Soil, Academy of Agricultural Sciences Republic of Tajikistan.

Ahmadov Kh. M. – President of the Academy of Agricultural Sciences Republic of Tajikistan

Bukhoriev - Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Shodibek Kurbonov – Project Manager GEF-project “Protected areas and biodiversity management in the Gissar mountain regions”, CARE International in Tajikistan,

Saidov Hamrokhon – Senior specialist on the department internal ecological migration, Ministry of Labour Force and Social Protection of Population Republic of Tajikistan.

Karimov Fayziddin – head of department Tajik geology

Rustam Latipov - Agency for State Control and Nature, Ministry of melioration and water management Republic of Tajikistan.

Mastibek Kubotov – Head of department land cadastre, Agency for land management, Geodesy and Cartography under the Government Republic of Tajikistan.

Kholmurodov Egamberdy – Head of department land account and organization of the use of land, Agency for land management, Geodesy and Cartography under the Government Republic of Tajikistan.

Svetlana Koneva – NGO Youth Ecology

Zaynullo SHARIPOV - Emergency and Ecological Department President Machinery Republic of Tajikistan

25 5. REFERENCES

Ahmadov, Kh.M. and D.K. 2007. Gulmahmadov. Socio-economic consequeunces of desertification in the Republic of Tajikistan . Dushanbe.

Ahmadov Kh.M. 1997. Soil erosion processes in the Republic of Tajikistan and combating by regional division . Doctoral Dissertation. Dushanbe.

Abdualimov, B. 2007. “Strategy and action improving land from salinity, land degradation and creating cadastral map in the Republic of Tajikistan”, Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). Dushanbe.

Ahmadov, Kh.M. 2007. “Contemporary problems of land degradation and ways of their prevention”, Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS), Dushanbe: 184.

Yakutilov, M.R. 1974. Soil erosion and methods to combating with them by regional division . Dushanbe.

Annex on the Government Decree Republic of Tajikistan from the 4 august, 1999, No344.

Annex on the Government Decree Republic of Tajikistan from the 4 March, 2005, No99

Castles, S. 2002. “Environmental change and forced migration: making sense of the debate”, New Issues in Refugee Research Working Paper No.70 . Geneva: United Nations High Commission for Refugees.

Document Poverty Reduction Strategy-2 (DPRS-2). 2007. Dushanbe.

Sadulloev, H and N. Nadiradze. 2007. “Demonstrating new approaches to Protected Areas and Biodiversity Management in the Gissar Mountains as a model for strengthening the national Tajikistan Protected Areas System”, Narrative Report on local Government Sustainable Land-Use Survey. Dushanbe.

Salfrank Joseph, H. Enviromentally Induced Displacement in Central Asia: Migration Impacts and Response Strategies . Available at www.tcc.iom.int , http://iom.ramdisk.net/iom/artikel.php?menu_id=4 ).

Khakimov P. Sh. 2005. “Internal Migration and Urbanization Processes in the Republic of Tajikistan”, Institute of Demography Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan. Unpublished report.

Khakimov P. Sh. 2006. “Socio-Economic Characteristics and Consequences of Internal Migration in the Republic of Tajikistan, (1995-2003)”, The Demographic Centre. Ch. I: Population and Development, Monograph Series

26 No.36. 36th Annual Conference On Population and Development Issues. Cairo.

Khakimov P. Sh. 2007. “Factors affecting in returnees migration processes in the past voluntary and ecologically migrants”, Institute of Demography Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan. Unpublished report.

Mahmadbekov, M. M. 2006. “Analysis of External Labour Migration and Demographic Development in the Republic of Tajikistan”, Institute of Demography Academy of Sciences republic of Tajikistan. Upublished report.

Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of Population Republic of Tajikistan. Household surveys about the numbers of ELM in 2005.

National Plan of Action for Protection of the Environment (NPAPE). 2006.

Filcak, R. 2008. Migration and the environment in Central Asia: The case of Ferghana Valley. Overview study. February.

State Statistics Committee Republic of Tajikistan. Data about internal migration flow period in 1995-2003.

State Statistics Committee Republic of Tajikistan. Statistical annual yearbook for 1995, 1999, 2003.

Tajik State Meteorology. Available at http://www.meteo.tj/eng/about_tajik_1.html

Mikhalev, V.and A. Reimov. 2008. “Land degradation in Central Asia”, Energy and the Environment. Issue 9.

United Nations. 2004. Project overview environmental condition in Tajikistan. First overview, council economic and social aspects. August.

27 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

CESRT - Committee on Emergency Situations of the Republic of Tajikistan

DDS – Direct Districts of Subordination

DPRS-2- Document Poverty Reduction Strategy-2

ELM – External Labour Migration

FSU – Former Soviet Union

GEF - Global Environment Facility

MBAR - Mountain-Badakhshan Autonomous Region

NAPPE - National Action Plan for Protection of the Environment

NGO – None Governmental Organization

TFR - Total Fertility Rate

TAAS – Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences

SCTG – State Committee of Tajik Geology

SCLT - State Committee of Land Tenure

UN – United Nations

USSR – Union Soviet Socialist Republic

28 Annex 1

Table1.4.1 Percentage of Population and International Labour Migrant by Region and District in the Republic of Tajikistan

No Regions and Middle Percent of LM from Percent of LM from districts year total number of LM in total pop-n in Region Pop-n in Region or in district or in district 2005 in 2005 accordingly in 2005 VMKB 3,2 4,4 7,3 1 Vanj 13,8 19,0 10,0 2 Rooshon 11,6 10,8 6,8 3 Shugnon 17,2 21,7 9,2 4 Roshtqala 11,8 17,2 10,6 5 Ishkoshim 12,8 13,8 7,8 6 Other 3 district 32,8 17,6 3,9 Khatlon region 35,5 41,2 6,1 1 Bokhtar 8,1 8,8 6,6 2 J. Roomi 5,9 6,8 7,0 3 Shahrituz 3,8 4,8 7,7 4 Jomi 5,0 8,8 10,7 5 Yovon 6,5 8,7 8,2 6 Vakhsh 5,7 8,6 9,1 7 Qoomsangir 3,9 6,0 9,3 8 Qabodiyon 5,4 6,9 7,8 9 Khuroson 3,3 4,1 7,5 10 Farkhor 5,2 4,7 5,5 11 M.C.A. 4,9 4,4 5,5 Hamadoni 12 Other 17 district 42,2 27,3 3,9 Sugd region 29,8 30,8 5,4 1 Ayni 3,4 4,9 7,8 2 Asht 6,0 7,2 6,5 3 Gonchi 6,2 6,7 5,8 4 Istaravshan 9,9 6,2 3,4 5 Isfara 10,5 13,5 7,0 6 Kanibadam 8,4 17,1 11,1 7 Panjakent 10,8 15,8 7,9 8 Chkalovsk 1,2 1,4 6,3 9 Taboshar 0,6 1,0 9,4 10 Other 13 district 57,0 26,4 2,5 DDR 22,1 19,9 4,7 1 14,8 12,4 4,0 2 Roodaki 20,2 31,1 7,3 3 16,8 8,3 2,3

29 4 Rasht 6,0 10,6 8,4 5 Jirgatol 3,7 7,6 9,6 6 5,9 4,3 3,4 7 Other 10 district 32,6 25,7 3,7 Dushanbe 9,3 3,6 2,0 Tajikistan 100 100 100

Source: Own calculation based on:

1. Annual Statistics Yearbook. State Statistic Committee Republic of Tajikistan in 2006

2. Household survey about a number of Labour Migrant by Region and District in 2005. Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of Population Republic of Tajikistan

Notice: Percent for Region from Total Population of Republic of Tajikistan and percent for District from total Population of Region

30