044468 EACH-FOR Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Specific Targeted Project Scientific support to policies – SSP Deliverable reference number and title: D2.2.2.2 Republic of Tajikistan Case Study Report Due date of deliverable: 31.12.2008 Actual submission date: 30.03.2009 Start date of project: 01.01.2007 Duration: 2 years Organisation name of lead contractor for this deliverable: CEDEM Project co-funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme (2002-2006) Dissemination Level PU Public PU PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission RE Services) CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) EACH-FOR is a project funded by the European Commission, by SERI (Austria) and by ATLAS Innoglobe (Hungary) Project website: www.each-for.eu 1 Republic of Tajikistan Case Study Report Khakimov P. Sh. – Researcher, Department “Migration, Urbanization and Settlement of Population”, Institute of Demography Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan. Mahmadbekov M. Sh. – Head of Department “Migration, Urbanization and Settlement of Population”, Institute of Demography Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan. 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Geographical and Environmental Context The Republic of Tajikistan is situated in the south-east of Central Asia, between the latitudes 36°40’ to 41°05’ and longitudes 67°31’ to 75°14’. The area of Tajikistan’s territory is 143,100 sq. km., stretching 700 km from west to the east and 350 km from north to the south. The country’s perimeter totals 3,000 km. The territory of the country is divided into 4 administrative regions and the capital city: Sogd Region, Khatlon Region, Mountain- Badakhshan Autonomous Region and Direct District Region and Dushanbe. Tajikistan is a mountainous country (93% of total territory). The absolute heights vary from 300 to 7,495m. The western deserts and semi-deserts of the Turan lowland merge with the foothills in the east. Further to the east, there are the huge mountain ranges of the Tibetan plateau and Tian Shan. This geography results in great diversity of natural conditions and environments. Due to the specific climate conditions and landscape, the mountains of Tajikistan are considered to be the main glacial area of Central Asia. Glaciers retain huge amounts of water, and regulate river flow and climate. Glaciers and snowfields are the main source of water replenishing the Aral Sea. Glaciers occupy more than 8.4 thousand sq.km, which is about 6% of the total area of the country. The total number of glaciers is about 8000 and 7 of the glaciers have a length of more than 20 km. Tajikistan's rivers are the basic source of fresh water for the Aral Sea. These rivers are important for irrigation, power generation, water supply, etc. Major watersheds of Tajikistan are Syrdarya (North Tajikistan), Zeravshan (Central Tajikistan), Pyanj (Southwest Tajikistan and Pamirs) and the blind drainage area of East Pamir. Most of the rivers in Tajikistan are mountainous; some of them originate at an altitude of more than 3,000-4,000 m. above sea-level. There are more than 1,300 lakes in Tajikistan, 80% of which are located at an altitude of around 3,000 m with an area of less 1 sq.km. 2 The largest salt-water lake in Tajikistan is Karakul (this lake was formed at the site of an asteroid impact), which is located in East Pamir (3,914m.). The deepest freshwater lake in Tajikistan is Sarez (3,239 m.) in the West Pamir. The lake was formed as the result of a powerful earthquake and rockslide in 1911. In addition to natural lakes, there are reservoirs such as Kairakkum, Nurek and Farkhad. Forests in Tajikistan are State property referred to as “first group forests”, which means that all forestry activities are aimed at expansion and improvement. Forests in Tajikistan occupy an area of 410 thousand hectares and include juniper, pistachio walnut and maple forests. The flora of Tajikistan is rich and diverse and includes more than 5,000 species of higher plants, and over 3,000 species of lower plants, including endemic, rare and endangered species. The fauna of Tajikistan is very diverse 1. 1.2. Migration in the context of the socio-economic and political situation During the last century rapid population growth in the Republic of Tajikistan led to an increase of population density. The population density in 1989 was 35.6 persons per square kilometer, and in 2006 it was 48.4 persons per sq. km. However, the population density varies from region to region. In the Mountain-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (MBAR), in Sogd, Khatlon regions and Direct Districts Subordination (DDS) the population density in 2006 was 3.4; 81.1; 99.3 and 53.5 per square kilometer respectively, whereas in 1989 these figures were considerably lower (2.5; 61.2; 68.4 and 38 per square kilometer). Since 93% of the total territory is occupied by mountains, rapid population growth and increasing population density has put increasing pressure on the environment in most valleys that are populated. Also it led to the exhaustion of the natural resources, which may cause an increased frequency of natural disasters. During the last 15 years, the annual rate of population growth remained at 2%. The total population grew from 1.034.400 (in 1913) to 6.132.000 (in 2000). The TFR (Total Fertility Rate) in 2003 decreased to 3.3 children per woman in comparison to 5.9 children per woman in 1989. Approximately 40% of population is below the age of 15 2. The high rate of population growth and poverty have led to degradation of the natural resources and consequently have negative effects on the environment (See figures 1.1a and 1.1b for more details). 1 http://www.meteo.tj/eng/about_tajik_1.html 2 Khakimov P. “Socio-Economic Characteristics and Consequences of Internal Migration in the Republic of Tajikistan, (1995-2003)”, THE DEMOGRAPHIC CENTER Chapter I: Population and Development, Monograph Series No. 36., 36th Annual Conference On POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT Issues (PROBLEMS & POLICIES), Cairo-2006. 3 Figure1.1a. Population change in the Republic of Tajikistan between 1951 and 2006 180 5 140 4 100 3 60 2 % 000 20 1 -20 0 1951 1954 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 -60 -1 Net Migration Natural Increase -100 Total Increase -2 Rate of Pop-n Growth Years Source: Own calculation based on data from the State Statistics Committee Republic of Tajikistan In general, the problem of migration connected with degradation of the environment has not been explored in Tajikistan. To a certain extent, the migration caused by degradation of the environment was studied in 2007 by the Institute of Demography of the Academy of Sciences of Republic of Tajikistan. This investigation concerned migrants who voluntarily moved in the last 60 years according to the state plan and environmental migrants, who had been moved to other regions of the country. Surveys were carried out in the place of origin and destination of migrants. The factors which played a decisive role in the return migration and acclimatization of migrants were determined. This investigation was focused on political, economic and social aspects of migration 3. 3 See Khakimov P. Factors affecting internal migration in the Republic of Tajikistan., Dushanbe – 2007, (unpublished report) 4 Figure1.1b. Percentage of Population Change by Rural-Urban Division in the Republic of Tajikistan between 1920 and 2006 16 12 U+R Urban Rural 8 % 4 0 0 0 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 92 93 95 95 95 96 96 97 97 97 98 98 99 99 99 00 1-4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Years Source: Own calculation based on data from the State Statistics Committee Republic of Tajikistan 1.3. Brief overview of environmental problems The history of the settlement in the valleys and foothill zones of the country began in 1930 and continued until 1980. During these years the population was forced by the authorities to move from the foothill and mountain regions into the valley areas of the country, in particular to achieve land development in Vakhsh valley and convert the agricultural grounds for cotton-growing. At that time, an active fight against salinization was undertaken with significant success. At the beginning of the 1970s, the tillable acreage for cultivation of cotton in foothill areas (Yavan, Garauti, Obikiik, Kabodien) was increased. This decision/executive decree led to degradation of environment due to irrigation of the foothill areas combined with the soil friability. This has led in recent times to landslides. Fortunately, these places were not populated, otherwise the landslides could have led to migration and human losses. The beginning of 1990s presented a serious test for the country, as civil war, economic reforms, and social unrest led to reverse migration of the population from urban to rural areas. This process took place until the middle of the 1990s. This process increased the pressure (population per unit arable land) in rural areas. At that time, the process of uncontrolled use of the agricultural grounds by the population began in the mountain areas, where the slope exceeds 45 degrees. This process also significantly affected the environment and in many regions of the country, it became the reason for landslides. In some regions it caused destruction of 5 houses and forced migration. In some foothill regions the irrigated lands were located above villages and led to landslides and destruction of houses.