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NIESR EU2 REPORT Annex 3 Sources

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NIESR EU2 REPORT Annex 3 Sources Annex 3: Sources Table below shows a full list of documents, websites and reports found during search phase, with note on authors, content and quality assessment mark. The table consists of 3 main parts covering literature in English (p. 1), Romanian (p. 40) and Bulgarian (p. 59). International evidence (available in English) The drivers of migration, the profile of migrants and potential impacts of migration from Bulgaria and Romania to the UK Reference Methods Key findings QA (1-3) Angelov, G. and Vankova, Z. (2011) The report provides a review of available The paper argues that Bulgaria and Romania should not be B Bulgarian Labour Migration: Do information on the basic characteristics of treated as a whole and that the potential inflow of Bulgarian restrictions make sense? Policy Brief, Bulgarian labour migration. immigrants is far less significant in volume and is less likely to Open Society Institute Sofia, November cause labour market disruption in recipient countries. 2011 This is linked to the fact that the appeal of emigration is gradually declining given that the unemployment rate in Bulgaria is now comparable to Western Europe and differences in income have decreased. A recent nationally representative survey conducted by OSI Sofia found that the main push factor for Bulgarians and Bulgarian citizens of Romani background is employment. In addition, it found that about 10% of Bulgarians who had been abroad in the last 20 years had done so for educational purposes. This appears to be a key distinction between the Roma population and the wider Bulgarian population. i Baas, T. and Brucker, H. (2011) EU Review of the effects of integrating new Propensity to migrate varies across sending countries, A Eastern Enlargement: the benefits from member states in the goods and factor including A2. In sum, people from countries with high GDP integration and free labour movement, markets of the EU, including data from per capita are less willing to move to an EU15 country than CESifo DICE report 2/2011 International Labour Force Survey on those with low GDP per capita. However, other factors such migration propensity and destinations as similarity of language, geographical distance, labour market conditions, networks and hospitality play an important role for migration propensity and choice of destinations. Financial market crisis is also a factor and make the scale and direction of future migration flows from A2 highly uncertain. Concludes that it is likely that, given deteriorating economic situation in UK and Ireland, with lifting of barriers, Germany is more likely to receive a much larger share of migrants from new member states than in the past. Black R., Engbersen G., Okólski M., Book (a compilation of papers). Includes The book explores the expansion of migration from countries A Pantîru C., 2010, A continent moving analyses of migration from Bulgaria and in Eastern Europe following their accession to the European West? EU enlargement and Labour Romania and to the UK. Union. The analysis is conducted for both origin countries, migration from CEE, Amsterdam notably Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, and destination University Press (2010) countries, including the UK, the Netherlands and Norway. Attention is given to labour market impacts, while also discussing migration policies emerging throughout the continent. The book analyses how many of the migration patterns so far generated are temporary, circular or seasonal. ii Breuss, F. 2009. An evaluation of the Model-based evaluation of the effects of Results show that the new member countries have already A EU’s Fifth Enlargement with special Bulgaria’s and Romania’s accession to the EU been able to benefit noticeably from their participation in the focus on Bulgaria and Romania, single market, despite not yet fully integrated labour European Commission, Economic and markets. However, the international financial crisis also Financial Affairs, Economic Papers, vol. shadows onto the economies of the new member states. The 361. direct integration effects of Bulgaria and Romania spill-over to EU15, including Austria and the 10 new member states of the 2004 EU enlargement. The pattern of the integration effects is qualitatively similar to those of EU’s 2004 enlargement by 10 new member states. Bulgaria and Romania gain much more from EU accession than the incumbents in the proportion of 20:1. In the medium-run up to 2020, Bulgaria and Romania can expect a sizable overall integration gain, amounting to an additional ½ percentage point real GDP growth per annum. Cook J, Dwyer P, Waite L. (2008) New About new migrants in Leeds. Literature Found that the key migration motivation for A8 migrants was B Migrant Communities in Leeds, Report review, interviews with key informants, focus desire to enter UK paid labour market: ‘This pre-eminence of to Leeds City Council groups and interviews with A8 migrants, economic motivation appears to have been largely driven by established communities and service the favourable disparity in earning potential between providers. Total of 34 new A8 migrants and 21 countries of origin and the UK’ p11 Earlier episodes of service providers in Leeds migration to the UK were considered temporary by migrants themselves but many decided to settle permanently. Cucuruzan, R.E. and Vasilache, V (2009) Qualitative interviewing: 21 semi-structured The study identified poor local economic conditions and B The other home: Romanian Migrants in interviews carried out in 2008 with Romanian family reasons as key push factors for leaving Romania. Spain, Romanian Journal of Regional migrant workers in Valencia. Snowballing Within Spain, the majority (15) of interviewees used relatives Science, Vol 3, No 1. technique used to identify potential and friends' networks to find jobs. Several of the respondents interviewees. accepted lower skilled work than they had previously conducted in Romania indicating evidence of deskilling. Some of the respondents migrated internally within Spain. The main reasons identified for this were: conflicts at work, iii dependence on other people, opportunity to get a better job or conflicts with landlords. Datta, K 2011) Last hired and first fired? This paper is based on a study which utilised a The majority (nearly 65 per cent) of the Bulgarian sample A The impact of the economic downturn mixed methodology approach combining reported that they did not have any dependents. The main on low-paid Bulgarian migrant workers quantitative and qualitative approaches motivating factor for migration was financial. in London, Journal of international including questionnaires, in-depth interviews 52/54 of the sample reported that they were employed at development, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 565- and focus group discussions. The research was the time of the interviews. Men and women worked in a 582 carried out in two stages. The first stage (July range of occupations with construction being the most 2007) targeted a broad range of migrant prominent followed by cleaning and hospitality. The majority communities while the second stage (2008-9) of workers interviewed concurred that the recession had focused on Bulgarian, Brazilian and Somali exacerbated economic insecurity. For some, job insecurity migrants. This paper draws upon the Bulgarian related to fear of job loss, for others it was shaped by sample comprising of 54 questionnaires, 24 in- experiences of unemployment. The downturn has also depth interviews and one focus group resulted in an erosion of wage levels and general conditions discussion. of work. The threat of unemployment was heightened by lack of access to benefits. Department for Communities and Local Evidence pack based on literature review, Although a review of A2 evidence, of necessity had to draw A Government (2007) Evidence for the some empirical research, consultation with on A8 evidence because found that evidence of A2 accession Social and Wider Impacts Strand of the Border and Immigration Agency Strategic migration since January 2007 was extremely limited. Covers a A2 Stock-take Coordination Groups, Government range of policy areas, including health and social care, Departments and with Migration Impacts housing, welfare and education, providing an overview rather Forum members (MIF is body set up to than in-depth analysis. provide forum to listen to public service providers about impacts of migration and to spread good practice about addressing impacts Duffy, D., FitzGerald, J. and Kearney, I. Analyses the relationship between migration Since many immigrants are in the household formation age A 2005. Rising house prices in and open and the property market using a structural group, and tend to be highly skilled, the authors argue that labour market. Economic and Social model, and macroeconomic simulations – the the boom in house prices, by reducing the attractiveness of Ireland for potential immigrants, could reduce labour supply. iv Review, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 251-272. Irish case Using a structural model of the labour market the authors endogenise the determination of house prices. The results suggest that rising house prices, by discouraging potential migrants, could significantly reduce the growth potential of the economy, shifting the balance of labour market growth from employment to wages, with a consequent deterioration in competitiveness. Dustmann, C., Frattini, T. and Halls, C. Econometric model of the impact of migration This paper assesses the fiscal consequences of migration to A 2010. Assessing the fiscal costs and on public finances the UK from the Central and Eastern European countries that benefits of EU-8 migration to the UK. joined the EU in May 2004 (A8 countries). We show that Fiscal Studies, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 1-41. A8 immigrants who arrived after EU enlargement in 2004, and who have at least one year of residence – and are therefore legally eligible to claim benefits - are 60% less likely than natives to receive state benefits or tax credits, and 58% less likely to live in social housing. Even if A8 immigrants had the same demographic characteristics of natives, they would still be 13% less likely to receive benefits and 28% less likely to live in social housing.
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