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The Making of an Economic Superpower : Unlocking China's

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The Making of an Economic Superpower : Unlocking China's ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& '(()*�+��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! �������� ���� ������������ ��������������� ����� ������������� ���� ������������������������������ ����� ������������������������� ���������� � ������ ���� ������������� �� ������� ����������� ���� �������� ������� ����� ������ ������ ��� � ����������� �������!����� ��������������� � �"##�������������� ��������#�������������#$%�$$&'#())*+ , �� -�������.������ ����������� �� ����� �/���������� THE MAKING OF AN *�+��� ECONOMIC (() ' SUPERPOWER Unlocking China’s Secret of Rapid Industrialization ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& #$!##%& ��������"���� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! ������ ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� May 2, 2013 14:6 ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& '(()*�+��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! This pageintentionallyleftblank BC: 8831 - Probability and Statistical Theory PST˙ws THE MAKING OF AN ECONOMIC *�+��� (() ' SUPERPOWER Unlocking China’s Secret of Rapid Industrialization ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& #$!##%& ��������"���� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! ������ ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� Yi WEN Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, USA & Tsinghua University, China :RUOG6FLHQWLÀF NEW JERSEY • LONDON • SINGAPORE • BEIJING • SHANGHAI • HONG KONG • TAIPEI • CHENNAI • TOKYO Published by :RUOG6FLHQWL¿F3XEOLVKLQJ&R3WH/WG 7RK7XFN/LQN6LQJDSRUH 86$RI¿FH:DUUHQ6WUHHW6XLWH+DFNHQVDFN1- 8.RI¿FH6KHOWRQ6WUHHW&RYHQW*DUGHQ/RQGRQ:&++( Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data 1DPHV:HQ<LDXWKRU 7LWOH7KHPDNLQJRIDQHFRQRPLFVXSHUSRZHUXQORFNLQJ&KLQD¶VVHFUHWRIUDSLGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ <L:HQ )HGHUDO5HVHUYH%DQNRI6W/RXLV86$ 7VLQJKXD8QLYHUVLW\&KLQD 'HVFULSWLRQ1HZ-HUVH\:RUOG6FLHQWL¿F_,QFOXGHVELEOLRJUDSKLFDOUHIHUHQFHVDQGLQGH[ ,GHQWL¿HUV/&&1_,6%1 KFDONSDSHU 6XEMHFWV/&6+,QGXVWULDOSROLF\&KLQD_&KLQD(FRQRPLFSROLF\_ *�+��� (FRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW&KLQD (() ' &ODVVL¿FDWLRQ/&&+'&:_''&GF /&UHFRUGDYDLODEOHDWKWWSOFFQORFJRY British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data $FDWDORJXHUHFRUGIRUWKLVERRNLVDYDLODEOHIURPWKH%ULWLVK/LEUDU\ &RS\ULJKWE\:RUOG6FLHQWL¿F3XEOLVKLQJ&R3WH/WG ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& #$!##%& ��������"���� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG7KLVERRNRUSDUWVWKHUHRIPD\QRWEHUHSURGXFHGLQDQ\IRUPRUE\DQ\PHDQV ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! HOHFWURQLFRUPHFKDQLFDOLQFOXGLQJSKRWRFRS\LQJUHFRUGLQJRUDQ\LQIRUPDWLRQVWRUDJHDQGUHWULHYDO system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the publisher. ������ ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� )RUSKRWRFRS\LQJRIPDWHULDOLQWKLVYROXPHSOHDVHSD\DFRS\LQJIHHWKURXJKWKH&RS\ULJKW&OHDUDQFH &HQWHU,QF5RVHZRRG'ULYH'DQYHUV0$86$,QWKLVFDVHSHUPLVVLRQWRSKRWRFRS\ LVQRWUHTXLUHGIURPWKHSXEOLVKHU 'HVN(GLWRUV+DULQL/DNVKPL1DUDVLPKDQ'RQJ/L[L 7\SHVHWE\6WDOOLRQ3UHVV (PDLOHQTXLULHV#VWDOOLRQSUHVVFRP 3ULQWHGLQ6LQJDSRUH ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& '(()*�+��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! For For JIN Baoli ( 䠁ᇍѭ ) and WEN You Ricardo ( You ) WEN and ᮷৸ ), with love May 2, 2013 14:6 ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& '(()*�+��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! This pageintentionallyleftblank BC: 8831 - Probability and Statistical Theory PST˙ws About the Author Yi Wen Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, USA & *�+��� (() School of Economics & Management, Tsinghua University, China ' The author is a senior economist and assistant Vice President in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and CCB Chair Professor in the School of Economics and Management (SEM) of Tsinghua University. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. I would like to thank Costas Azariadis, Ping Chen, Justin Yifu Lin, and Bill Gavin for strong ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& #$!##%& ��������"���� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! encouragement and insightful comments on an earlier version of this pro- ject. Thanks also go to Jess Benhabib, Michele Boldrin, Roger Farmer, ������� ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� Belton Fleisher, Hong Ma, Carlos Marichal, Nancy Stokey, Peer Vries, Yong Wang, Yang Yao, Xiaobo Zhang, and Tian Zhu for kind comments and criticism, and Maria Arias and Jinfeng Luo for research assistance. My greatest gratitude goes to George Fortier, who has carefully edited the entire manuscript and provided numerous suggestions to improve the exposition of the ideas presented herein. Several ideas presented in this paper also exist in the related literature, and I have cited the original sources for all previously published content that I am aware of. But limita- tions in my knowledge and survey of the literature may have caused unin- tended omissions. Therefore, I welcome and appreciate feedback from readers who can identify any omitted or incorrect citations. vii May 2, 2013 14:6 ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& '(()*�+��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! This pageintentionallyleftblank BC: 8831 - Probability and Statistical Theory PST˙ws Abstract *�+��� (() ' The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of economic develop- ment based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly inadequate in explaining China’s rise. This book argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly por- trayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China’s growth ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& #$!##%& ��������"���� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable despite ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! its current “backward” financial system and political institutions. ������� ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� Conversely, China’s spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial super- power sheds considerable light on the fundamental shortcomings of the institutional theory and mainstream “blackboard” economic models and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical epi- sodes such as Africa’s enduring poverty trap despite radical political and economic reforms, Latin America’s lost decades and frequent debt crises, 19th century Europe’s great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself. ix May 2, 2013 14:6 ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& '(()*�+��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! This pageintentionallyleftblank BC: 8831 - Probability and Statistical Theory PST˙ws Quotes from the Book *�+��� (() ' “Poverty or backwardness or the lack of industrialization is always and everywhere a social coordination-failure problem. The problem arises because of the enormous costs of creating market and its fundamental pillar — social trust.” “The ‘free’ market is not free. It is a fundamental public good that is extremely costly to create. The ongoing industrial revolution in China has been driven not by technology adoption, per se, but instead by continuous market creation led by a capable mercantilist government.” ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ��������"���� #$!##%& #$!##%& ��������"���� ����� ���!��������� �����!��� ,-��������� ������.�"����� ������� /!�0����������������"���� �����������! “The Glorious Revolution did not make British government more ‘inclu- ������� ������ ���� ������������������ ����� ����� ��������������������� �������������� sive’ in the sense of sharing political power with the working class (as glorified by Acemoglu and Robinson (2012, pp. 1–5) in their appraisal of the Arab Spring movement). It simply made the government more authori- tarian and powerful in levying taxes, creating markets and commercial networks, promoting manufacturing and mercantilist trade, and reigning over the British economy.” “The market for mass-produced industrial goods cannot be created by a single ‘big push’ under import substitution or ‘shock therapy.’ It can only be created step by step in the correct order (sequence). China’s rise to global economic supremacy has been
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