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Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): our first part of the series exploring Turkey's relationship with the European Union. Our Dear Ladies and gentlemen, our distinguished question for today, can the EU and Turkey find guests, I would like to welcome you all today to the way forward? And the second and third our panel on the future of Turkey and EU series of this panel will also be held in May and relations. I am Ayca Aydogdu, international June. So let me briefly introduce my guests, news presenter at TRT World and will be your Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey and moderator for this evening. Briefly, let me Director for EU Affairs, Ambassador Faruk introduce our host, The Circle Foundation is a Kaymakci, Director for External Relations at the non-profit independent think-tank based in Secretary General of the European London dedicated to Turkey-UK relations and Commission, Michael Karnitschnig, international issues concerning Turkey. It is Ambassador Michael Sahlin, Distinguished undeniable to say having faced a global crisis Associate Fellow with a SIPRI European such as the Covid-19 pandemic, now a year on Security Programme, a former state secretary in the world suddenly will be fundamentally the Defence Ministry of Sweden and also a different from what it was and whether this will former ambassador to Turkey and the Secretary be a turning point in history. This will only be told General of the Economic Development in time, but one thing is for certain. Global Foundation, associate Professor at the Yildiz cooperation is a must to survive the long lasting Technical University Department of Political damages of this pandemic. And whatever Science and International Relations, Cigdem question we ask today, whether it is migration, Nas and Visiting Professor at the College of economy or environment, it is in the midst of a Europe. Non-resident Scholar at the Middle pandemic, all countries share a common East Institute Dr. Emiliana Alessandri, all of you, attitude and that is maintaining stability. It has welcome once again. So our panel first will start now been two decades since Turkey became a off with speeches from each guest and move on candidate for membership for the European to a roundtable discussion. And finally, we will Union. Certainly it has been a rocky be taking your questions to our guests. And I relationship, but watching the dialogue over the now kindly invite the Deputy Minister of Foreign 15 years of my journalism career, one can say Affairs of Turkey and Director EU affairs no matter how rocky it is, Turkey and EU have Ambassador Kaymakci to address to the floor. inseparable ties. And certainly this week has significance. After the official visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Ambassador Faruk Kaymakci: and the European Council President Charles Thank you, Ayca Hanim, Enes bey, and thank Michel to Ankara after the meeting with Turkish you to the Circle foundation. And I see many President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The words friends, including Michael from Brussels, but used were a new momentum. Now, this will be also former Ambassador Michael, Cigdem

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hanim and Emiliano from my famous College of were unfortunately blocked unilaterally by this. Europe. So I would like to greet all the panellists And the opportunity is a Win-Win situation. We as well as all the participants. have a customs union which dates back from 1995. So we have already some You ask a very simple question. And I think my implementation in the best interests of both answer will be very simple. The way forward is, sides that our current customs union is very there is already enshrined in the 18 March limited to only industrial products and statement of 2016. 18 March includes six pillars. processed agricultural products. So we need to The first pillar is the accession perspective of update the Customs Union. And I strongly Turkey. So for us, believe that in the course of the pandemic Our relations with the EU are period of modernisation of the customs union would be one of the best remedies. Concerning based on the accession. I do the fourth pillar of the 18 March statement. I not think that anyone should would like to say that we need more cooperation see Turkey as a country with on counter-terrorism, which is clearly expressed by both sides in 2015 and 2016 Turkey-EU which the EU or others can Summit. But unfortunately, the EU side only have transactional relations on sees this from the DAESH perspective and from the foreign terrorist fighters perspective. But of the daily needs. This is not the course, for Turkey fighting equally, the PKK, way that we see. So our PYD, YPG as well as FETO Network principal aim is the accession. organisation, it is vital. So we want to see concrete steps from our allies in the rest of We want to get fair treatment in Europe to cooperate. Turkey with sincerely and the accession process with the I think this is one of the reasons why we have some sort of lack of confidence between Turkey other candidate countries. and the rest of Europe. Of course, visa The second pillar of the 18 March statement is liberalisation was another dimension, another to have regular High-Level Dialogue meetings, pillar in the 18 March statement. I think it is high which are there already on transport, energy, time that Turkish citizens should be enjoyed economy, foreign policy, counter-terrorism, already visa free travel to the Schengen zone. security. Turkey has been an associate member Turkey is the only country in Europe which is still of the European Union since 1963. So we have excluded from this system. I am not counting also the association council, which should not Kosovo yet because Kosovo is in the final be blocked for political reasons. Unfortunately, process, but otherwise among candidate all this high level dialogue, meetings, countries that Turkey is the only country. Of association council and Turkey-EU summit

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course, there are some benchmarks we made the Syrians. I can say that so far these irregular already a lot of progress. The remaining six migration crisis costs more than 40 billion Euros benchmarks should not be a major issue. But I in Turkey alone. So I think we have to be fair also believe that the visa free travel will increase and we have to share the burden all together. trade, tourism, services and people to people The third promise, the voluntary humanitarian contact. So this is why we have to also make admission scheme, which was proposed by the progress on visa liberalisation. In terms of EU side, unfortunately, this was blocked by few migration, unfortunately, EU is more selective. member states, so the EU could not keep its They are only focusing on migration promise there. And the fourth promise was to management. And everyone clearly sees that cooperate in northern Syria. The cooperation Turkey is taking the most the burden off of between Turkey, the EU and the member states Europe in terms of not only Syrians, by the way, to enable better humanitarian conditions, but but also other Asians whose population has also to enable voluntary and secure returns. now reached almost half a million. In Turkey, we Unfortunately, EU did not do much. And also have 4.2 million so-called migrants or refugees. you criticised our three operations that we had Our cooperation is vital. And the EU has given to conduct in northern Syria, which enabled 435 us four promises. We realized our two thousand people to go back to northern Syria, commitments, which was the prevention of to their villages, to their houses. So when EU irregular migration. Right now, I can say it is 92 started criticising us on these three operations percent success. And also in terms of one to and also threatening to put embargo on arms one deal basically taking and those irregular sales towards a NATO ally, Turkey said, okay migrants who went illegally to the Greek islands. from now on, I will look at the 18 March So Turkey also has kept her promise. We have migration deal from a different point of view. And received all the people who were returned from this is where we are. So during this visit, we the Greek islands until February 2020. But on discussed all these six pillars. EU, again, is very the EU side, the EU kept its promise in terms of selective. The EU wants to go on cooperation one to one deal. So far, EU has taken more than with us unconditionally on migration issues. But 28 thousand people. This is fine. But when you when it comes to accession, no point is made. compare with 4.2 Million people in Turkey, I When it comes to counter-terrorism, we do not think you can make the difference yourself. In hear much from the EU side and when it comes terms of second commitment, financial to visa liberalisation, unfortunately, it is watered assistance, by the way, not to Turkey, but to the down as people to people dialogue and mobility. Syrians in Turkey. We were expecting the EU to But the proper name of this game is visa act fast and to contribute more. So out of this 6 liberalisation for Turkish citizens. I think we billion, only 4 billion were dispersed from the EU should be able to say this. A customs union, I pocket and only 3.7 billion Euros have reached think is not a favour given to Turkey, but it is a

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win-win deal I think everyone will win. The way both verbal and practical de-escalation on the forward is very simple. As we have agreed on 9 ground. We have seen a more constructive March 2020, when three presidents met in attitude on a number of issues across the board, Brussels, we need to renew 18 March and we believe that this should be sustained statement with all the dimensions in it. So this is and provided that this is sustained, let's say the way forward. And we hope that this can be positive momentum is there, our leaders have put into practice after the June summit this year. said very clearly we are prepared to engage on a positive agenda at our June summit. That is Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): the message that presidents Von der Leyen and Michel brought to the Turkish leadership the day Next up is Michael Karnitschnig, Director for before yesterday that we want to deepen these External Relations in General for the European ties after a rocky and bumpy road of the last Commission. couple of years, notably on some of the issues

that were mentioned on the customs union, Michael Karnitsching: which is, as Faruk has rightly said, a Win-Win Turkey and the European Union have an situation. It is not a gift. indispensable relationship, but it is also a very The customs union needs to be rocky one. It is indispensable because you can choose many things in life, but geography, you modernized after 25 years, cannot choose your neighbor and geography is precisely in the current destiny. And we have so many political, complicated economic practical, economic, sectorial, societal, cultural ties that it is, for me a source of, frankly, situation of which the frustration that this relationship does not reap pandemic puts an extra burden the benefits and opportunities that both sides would actually have from a more, let's say, on economies worldwide, we focused, pragmatic hands-on relationship. That want to deepen people to is the strategic sort of view here in Brussels. We people and mobility policies. need to re-energize this relationship because it is currently not functioning properly. Let's be We want to reinstate and clear about this. The European Council, i.e., the expand these high level European leaders, the heads of state government at their summit a couple of weeks dialogues. ago at the end of March, made a very clear offer And last but certainly not least, we want to make to Turkey, given that in the last couple of the 2016 statement work. It remains valid. It months, since the end of last year, have actually remains important. Ambassador Kaymakci is shown more promising picture. We have seen a rightly referred to some of the successes that

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we have jointly booked under of the statements. be ill advised there. I entirely agree to let the But that brings me to a second set of issues. We potential that this relationship has and that is still should please also not forget that one of the key unused or underused, slip away from us. reasons, if not the key reason why the relationship between these two sides has Ambassador Michael Sahlin: encountered such issues over the last five years Thank you for inviting me to this event. I feel that is the domestic situation of Turkey. That is the I represent perhaps not just a longer history clearly held position of our member states of the than some, but also the views on the part of a European Parliament. We have seen a very country, an EU member country, which has unfortunate moving away of Turkey from some been somehow committed to the case and the fundamental international standards to which it cause of Turkey for a long time. I remember has itself committed to. And that is the reason when I was ambassador in Turkey, the then why on a number of issues, notably on the government used to think about Sweden as accession process, but also a number of topical second to Greece the most Turkey-critical issues like visa liberalisation, we are frankly country amongst the European Union. There stuck and we are not moving for the time being. was a big change very soon afterwards, when That is the unanimously held position of our Anna Lindh and Carl Bildt came in as foreign political masters, the member states. That does ministers. And I think that many people, mean that these items are off the table. I mean, including Mr. Karnitshnig, will recognise their I agree with Faruk. The best thing you can do and Sweden´s role in insisting within the EU on for people to people contacts would be visa. But the cause of Turkey becoming a full member of why is it not moving? It is not moving because the European Union, as being in the basic Turkey is not fulfilling the six remaining strategic interests of all of us. I think this is benchmarks that there is no chance that this, appreciated by Turkish diplomats and many which is EU legislation, will go through without Turks generally. So this is the perspective that I that. So I hope that we now and I am confident bring to this conference. And, as you said, Ayca, that we can do this, that we are now in a new yes, I have been around for quite some time so phase of the last couple of months. I think what I can see the comparison, also the similarities, our leaders took away from Ankara the other between the various epochs. In the late 90s, of day was a sincere willingness on the Turkish course, there were lots and lots of strains; there side to build on this current positive momentum. was the Susurluk scandal and there was the And if that were to be the case, I am sure we Kardak (Imea crisis that almost caused war can open a new page, a new chapter in this between Turkey and Greece. All of those things important relationship in the month of June. that happened in the midst of internal turmoil in Again, the geopolitical situation of the world is the politics of Turkey at that time, the late 90s. such that we both need this and we would both When I now listen to Ambassador Kaymakci

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and Mr Karnitschnig, I hear constant use of the 2016 Statement between Turkey and the EU word “unfortunately”, as if this word is symbolic that tended to make the points then agreed to an ambivalent attitude on the part of both upon more difficult to realize and implement. sides, as if there is a profound sense of And then, of course, came the discovery of oil disappointment on both sides at things being so and gas in the eastern Mediterranean and then stuck for so long when it comes to translating, came the regional diplomatic steps, the Libyan in various ways, the general understanding of scene, the agreement between Turkey and interdependence to practical cooperation and to Libyan GNA government in Tripoli concerning unblocking all the things that have been blocked the maritime borders as a counter move to an for so long. So, I understand, with my long-term earlier agreement between Greece and Egypt. perspective on Turkey, what the word So you had this further action-reaction process “unfortunate” stand for, coming from that made Turkey-EU relations develop into Ambassador Kaymakci. But I also, of course, something which was more acute than the host understand what has been inhibiting the EU of other problems that had been pushed from acting fully on the on the accord that unresolved down the road for so long. Chancellor Merkel and Prime Minister Sometimes darkness is the deepest before Davutoglu agreed upon in March 2016. We all dawn. So I share the view of those that now feel know all of the things that happened after the that with the events happening last year -adding agreement was entered into then. And I have to difficulties that were being harboured for so been wondering myself many times about what long time and preventing the potential of EU- happened to the various points that were, after Turkey relations from being translated into all, components of package that was agreed at concrete action and into concrete agreements - the time, each component of the package organizationally speaking, these things should depending on the others. As was explained at this stage expected to lead to some sincerity from the EU side, there were the internal on both sides, sincerity and sobriety to really developments in Turkey in the extraordinarily speak the truth. I wish I had been a fly on the eventful year of 2016 when everything wall when Mrs von der Leyen and Mr Michel happened, the AKP conference and its were in Ankara, but even if there was no fly on decisions in May, the attempted coup, the the wall we do have someone here who was purges after the coup, the first military present, so we just heard from those talks. intervention in Syria in August, and then vice Clearly, these talks came to being as a result of president Joe Biden's visit that same months, request from the Turkish side and also based on proceeding directly from Turkey to Sweden. So an agreement in principle that, yes, there needs there were indeed eventful days adding more to be high level talks. How can there not be problems to the agenda between the two sides. serious high level dialogue, if you are sincere in There were things happening after the March your wish to develop something meaningful that

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can stand the test of contemporary times. I do sincere judgment that there can be real not know if there was a discussion about the progress there. Eastern Mediterranean conference that has The question is, of course, what also been floated as an idea. But setting the do the two sides honestly mean context for such a conference would, of course, be an indispensable step in order to promote the by progress? Is it understood much-needed positive agenda. So my view to be to revive the concept of now, which may be controversial and you may contradict me, is that there is indeed a certain Turkey ultimately becoming a lack of sincerity. I do not see the two sides fully full member of the European sincere. Maybe they are and maybe I am wrong. Union? Or is the meaning But when I watched, for example, the steps taken by the Turkish government immediately rather to keep that issue preceding the EU visit, the high level visit that floating in uncertainty and then both sides accepted as necessary and called for, the steps concerning the central bank de facto promote more leadership, closure of the HDP Party, transactional relations? withdrawal from the Istanbul convention, I was I heard Ambassador Kaymakci what you said wondering, regardless of reasons stated, about about transactionalism. I understand that, the sincerity of purpose on the Turkish side, because I know that without more value based seeing that these things were undertaken just interaction, there is no mutual leverage in the days before the visit. Then, on the other hand, relations and therefore no meaningful equality. when I read the text of the European Union This is a huge mutual dilemma. Let me now following the council meeting, I have to admit I conclude my statement with some questions to have rarely seen a text, a diplomatic text, so full the former speakers. One would be how of conditions, so packed with conditionality. important is it, do you think, that the forthcoming Maybe there is no concrete conditionality meeting hosted by the United Nations about connected to the migration deal component, Cyprus, leads to some steps forward? Is it possibly the exception. But I can somewhat symbolic? Is it the lock on other problems and a understand that - speaking again about the precondition for de-blocking relations? And if word “unfortunately” - that the Turkish side feels not, can we hope now for some real progress that if you guard all these elements of the that really will de-block so many other things to positive agenda in so many lines of be taking place there, in view also of the conditionality this would somehow contradict Varosha case and the prevailing view of some the image of their being a sincere wish and a now that the only realistic avenue is to have a two-state solution rather than a by-communal

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federation? We all know long history of There is no reference to Turkey as a candidate frustrated discussions about that. So my state. There is no reference to the accession question to the former speakers is, how negotiations. So it seems that what the EU has important is this issue? Can the EU-Turkey in mind is to make a transition towards a new relations and the aspirations for a new friendly relationship with Turkey. So re-calibrating the relationship survive a failed meeting about relationship from the perspective of Cyprus? And a second question to Mr. membership to a partnership model. This was, Karnitschnig, how important is and what is the again, as we all know, was on the agenda even state of progress in EU, US relationships before the start of the negotiations in the form of concerning relations with Turkey and the privileged partnership and the strategic broader region? partnership. However, none of these alternative models, let's say for Turkey-EU relations, have Assoc Prof Cigdem Nas: been very credible in how Turkey-EU relations can fit into this new framework is questionable. Thank you also for the organisers for inviting So I think it may be one thing we should clear is me. And I will try to look at the issue more from Turkey's candidacy status. It is still ongoing, but a civil society perspective. I have been working there is in general and there is such an attitude. on Turkey-EU relations for quite a long time and And it is as if it does not exist, this candidacy my organisation, the Economic Development status, so on the one hand, of course, we could Foundation, has been established in 1965 with conclude that Turkey as a candidate state the sole intention of supporting Turkey's should engage in reforms again, especially in integration to the European Union. So since the areas of democracy, human rights and the then, we have been working for the cause of rule of law. So this is something that we should Turkey's further integration with a view to its all accept. But other than that, the failure of the membership to the European Union. Currently, accession process so far is not only due to as all speakers have referred to, we are in a Turkey, but also due to the problems inherent in situation where at least we can hope for a the accession process and the vetoes which revitalisation of the relations, especially after the have been applied to suspend certain parts of very bumpy route that was taken in 2020. the accession negotiations. So it is not only up However, when we look at the conclusions or to Turkey that this has failed so far. So we the statement after the March 25 European should not think that the accession process is Council, we hear the positive measures which not the most viable framework still for Turkey were again based on conditions related with the relations, because just due to the fact that we eastern Mediterranean. And we also see that do not have anything else to replace it. What we the EU is happy to support and continue to have had so far and since the sort of suspension support Syrians in Turkey. However, we do not of de facto suspension of the accession see any reference to Turkey's candidacy status.

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negotiations was a deterioration of the relations conditions for the start of the Customs Union and the sort of transition to a conflictual modernisation will not help and will postpone relationship. So maybe the EU is trying to re- the revitalisation of the process. engage with Turkey on the basis of the positive The most realistic option that agenda. But it is still very fragile because we no we have for the future of the longer have this accession framework, the credibility of the accession framework. And I relations in the short run is a think this is very important, of course, at the modernisation of the customs moment maybe it seems very difficult to think of Turkey's accession to the EU, not only because union. However, this should not Turkey, but also because the EU is also now be the end itself, nor should it approaching the issue of enlargement very be the sort of the nucleus of a cautiously, not only for Turkey, but also for the other candidates and also due to the other new relationship. This should conditions, covid-19 and the internal crises of be a more pragmatic solution the EU, then it seems a bit difficult. But still, as an ultimate perspective, maybe not in the short found to the impasse at the term, but when conditions are right or when the moment with this final goal of circumstances are more or less appropriate, full membership. then we should keep this perspective. And until then, we should try to contribute to Turkey's So we should accept this and we should base further convergence to the European Union. on the present difficulties, we should look at And the Customs Union modernisation process what we can do under the circumstances in can be very valuable in order to revitalise the order to create the best possibility for re- relations and also to, let's say, bring the two convergence in the relations. And the second components of the relations together, the point I would like to raise is the point of time that interest component and the value component, we are at the moment. We are going through a because I think you cannot really base the pandemic and which is really creating a very relationship solely on interest. You have to also difficult situation. And it also is creating new have a combination of interests and values challenges for economies in terms of because they cannot really be sold separately. technology, in terms of education, in terms of I think they are all connected. So if we can start employment in all areas of life. So, this is a point the customs union modernisation, at least we in time where we are seeing a real transition in will have a chance to rebuild trust and the spirit the world economy and society. And this also of cooperation between Turkey and the necessitates much closer cooperation between European Union and presenting further Turkey and the European Union. Especially, there are two important areas maybe we should

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focus more on. One is the green deal that the relationship would remain indefinitely stacked. EU is engaged. And I want to underline that it is And even worse than that, that there would be not the EU green deal, but it is the European a sort of mean a mini bloc within the European green deal. So Turkey's convergence to these Union hijacking the future of this relationship, changes with regard to the climate change mainly around the gas issue, which is a very goals is needed. And for Europe to succeed, to important issue. And there are lots of very be the first continent that is a climate neutral legitimate concerns. But there was really a risk continent depends also on the building of a that this already rocky and difficult relationship mutually beneficial and cooperative that was described by some of the previous relationship. The second area where we should speakers would remain hijacked by one issue or see more cooperation between the parties is the a few of them. And with this new dialogue that digital agenda, which is also one of the priorities was also announced in the recent visit of EU of the EU, and these are two extremely representatives to Ankara, which was, of important issues where Turkey and the EU course, prepared over the previous months, it is should engage more. Political problems and the not something that just took place in recent recent tension in the eastern Mediterranean and weeks. There is a lot of preparation behind it. I other issues have maybe prevented working believe that this dialogue is very promising together between Turkey and the European because it reaffirms the reality of a very dynamic Union. But I think these two issues and the relationship that has been very complex from challenge posed by this transition process may the beginning. Also, open-ended, there is the create a certain vantage point to start the accession process, but nobody knows how revitalisation process. Turkey will evolve over the coming years. Now, the EU, for that matter, will evolve over the Dr Emiliano Alessandri: coming years. And this discussion is now again being pursued by both sides. And I take I think in recent years it was very difficult to be Ambassador Micheal's point about the sincerity optimistic about this relationship. I myself issue. But the fact that there is such a political almost stopped writing about it. But I am investment now in re-energizing the relationship cautiously optimistic now. The recent is significant in and of itself. It is to be noted that developments going in a positive direction, as even when bad news comes from Turkey and was pointed out by almost all of the previous there are many from the European perspective, speakers, despite the sofa gate and other things that are disappointing or are not entirely incidents that I am sure will happen, I believe understandable to a European audience. Even developments are going in a positive direction, when that was happening, Turkey never and they are going in a positive direction backtracked on its commitment to become a because a big risk, a big danger has been member of the European Union. I think that is avoided, and the danger was that this

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very significant. And has been reaffirmed also in relationship that is not transactional, and I like our conversation today by Ambassador the references of previous speakers to the fact Kaymakci. And with all the debate about Turkey that this relationship cannot be just changing axis, debates that I was also involved transactional. It has to be strategic because as in this as an open. Of course, there have been was pointed out by the EU representative, it is decisions by Turkey, of course, using its an indispensable relationship. It is bound by national sovereignty that were seen as geography and much more history, human problematic by Washington, by Brussels, but I connections on the plain back from Turkey to think the commitment to the European Union Austria and the number of Austrian Turkish and to European integration is there. families, German Turkish families who are fully Turkey has been diversifying integrated in their countries in the EU is just that the reality in front of you beyond all the things its international portfolio. But that we may be saying in think-tank or foreign that is because the world has policy circles. And this relationship has to be changed, and all of our based on interest. In my view, above all, but in broad definition of interests and for the EU, it is countries, including European very important that democracy, that the Union countries, are navigating development of Turkey in a pluralistic liberal direction that is part of the definition of the a different international European interest is not in addition to is not an environment with many more accessory to it. It is integral part of what the EU actors and different interests conceives as its own security interests. Having a democratic neighbour. And at the same time, have to be balanced out. European countries have to understand that I was in Turkey just days ago, and the speed of Turkey is much more than the current their vaccination campaign, for instance, is quite government of Turkey and that at the same impressive compared to some of our European time, controversial positions of the current Union countries. And that is mainly because of leadership of Turkey are sometimes shared by Turkey's access to vaccines that are not many more Turks than those who vote for the currently available to European Union citizens. AKP. I just take two issues the attempted and So, of course, you want to be able to leverage failed coup that many of us in Europe looked at different relationships in the more with a part of with a lot of scepticism, especially the the world we are living in. We need to move to repression that followed it, especially the focus a more mature relationship between the two on the Gulen movement. Well, that type of parties, which does not mean accepting a level interpretation of what happened has much more of cynicism, but is just a more realistic following in Turkey than any European observer

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would believe at first. To take a second issue, in focusing on what unites more than focusing on the eastern Mediterranean issue, we may not what divides. I think that will remain a lot of like Turkey has been behaving on that. And divisions. But there is a chance, in my view, to there have been parts that were clearly and move this relationship forward. rightfully criticised by Greece and others. But I think a different government in Turkey would Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): have not had an entirely different position on Thank you very much Emiliano Alessandri for access to strategic resources in the eastern your speech. I have to say, when we are talking Mediterranean. We cannot possibly think that a about two countries to European unions and country that is so central to the region will be Turkey's relationship of how many topics are excluded by the majority of the resources of the being raised and how many issues are being region. On other issues, I think there are raised. It is not easy and certainly it is very alignments that we are only now understanding. delicate when talking about it. But as we said, Take the issue of Libya, which was mentioned so many questions have been raised already. before Turkey took some controversial stance And next will be Ambassador Kaymakci to on Libya to engage militarily in the country. But answer the question, I do want to say to now there are prospects for cooperation in encourage our audience to asking questions supporting the new government. And I think, and they can write in the questions in Q&A box. you know, other analysts have already pointed So, from all our panellists taking here, I will out that the chance that now Libya has for a sort continue going back to the differences. There of restart is as much due to the diplomatic are, especially when talking about East-Med, process, the Berlin conference and all the Cyprus, the customs union and I will focus on efforts that have been put towards re-energizing them and Ambassador Sahlin also had good the government of national accord as also to the questions. He raised that. But I do want to get intervention of Turkey and what was done into the migration deal quickly as one of the militarily, however controversial it is, we saw focuses of the visit. It was specifically that. So what Turkey did to kind of contain the other Ambassador Kaymakci, as Turkey hosts now perspective represented by general Haftar we nearly four million Syrian refugees and has would not be talking right now about re- been a country with the most refugees in the energizing the Libyan political process. So I world. So one can say what was thought to have think there are lots of opportunities, not only an end in sight. Actually, the reality is now far problems, I think a positive agenda by definition from that. Maybe we did not see that coming, doesn't mean we are going to agree on but that is the reality today. So will there be a everything or that we need to agree on new migration deal that will suit both sides? everything before we can proceed. I think positive agenda. Exactly, precisely means

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Ambassador Faruk Kaymakci: Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): On the migration deal, our position is very clear. Mr. Karnitsching, of course, this now next to you We are already taking the most burden off of coming from, again, the immigration deal. And Europe. And I can also say that Germany is probably you have something to say here as contributing also greatly. So burden sharing is well. But I would want to add something to this essential. We are ready to cooperate, but again, as having watched the Syria crisis over the ten we cannot go transactional. So in terms of years, I was a journalist in Turkey and looking migration deal, the 18 March migration at how it develops. And we know that we are at dimension is okay, but we have to take into a time in the world that the more people account new elements, new migration, which displaced than the Second World War and should include non-Syrians as well. New looking at the migration policy of the EU, frankly, Migration Deal should also deal with the we can see the resistance of the some member pushbacks in Aegean Sea by Greece. And also states in this point. But I know the European New Migration Deal should handle the issue of values very well. I have lived in Germany and safe country. Because, you know, Greece can for me it means something else. So when I look pushbacks or can return only those they want, at only one country seems to be taking most of but they do not want to return, for example, the burden, can we see a long term solution FETO plotters who escaped by helicopters to affecting the lives of millions of people and EU Greece just for the excuse of safe country member states coming together in migration shoot. So New Deal also has to focus on policy? cooperation in northern Syria. We have to cooperate because you have you have to go to Michael Karnitsching: the root of the problem. So, these are the basic I think you have just touched a question that is parameters in addition to what we have in the even more complicated than the EU-Turkey 18 March statement, I think our position is very relations, namely the EU migration policy, look clear and we do not understand why the EU still on the migration issue as such, if there is one waiting. We ask the European side to make their thing that Ambassador Kaymakci and I agree team up immediately to sit with us and discuss upon, it is the enormous burden that Turkey all the details. And I think that is what we need, shoulders when it comes to Syrian refugees. because clearly the borders of Europe and This is an enormous daily work of solidarity and NATO start at Turkey's southeastern borders. charity and generosity. And there I agree that a So it does not start as some claim at the Aegean lot of Europeans and a lot of European citizens sea. underestimate also, by the way, in terms of

burden that it puts on the Turkish economy and

on the Turkish side, there is no question about

this. But let's be clear. First of all, we are in the

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process of rolling out the first six billion of which That is something that the European Union will voted for are actually being dispersed, have keep struggling with. I will give you a very low been dispersed. That money is going to the key assessment of that, I am afraid, for the very refugees. After that, there needs to be simple reason that it is about, as you rightly additional substantial longer-term funding. pointed out, burden sharing. Well, it is not just There is no question about this and especially the few countries. Ambassador Sahlin's own president von der Leyen is extremely committed country has taken on a very significant amount to that. We will come forward with financial of refugees and other migrants over the years. proposals to this ends very soon. But let's also Germany has taken more than million people in be clear. We have to get this through our one go. The country that I know best, Austria member states and the European Parliament. has in percentage terms, although it is often So whether or not you agree with them on that criticized for its stance on migration, taken the point, there are political forces to be reckoned exact percentage of people being 10 times with. And they also look very carefully at what smaller to Germany in this crucial year, 2015- Turkey is doing in other areas. Now, you may 2016. So a lot is being done. And let's not forget find this unfair. You may find this irrelevant to one thing. We do not have the luxury of being the implementation of refugee support, but that an island than the other, let's say Western or is the way it is. And that is why president von Western powers are. So we will be exposed. We der Leyen has very clearly argued for making will keep sharing our part of the burden. We will sure that there is a conducive political climate keep supporting frontline countries, if you will, overall to continuing this aid. Let me say a like Turkey. But again, this is happening as part couple of other things about this. Ambassador of a broader political context. Whether we like Kaymakci says we should go beyond Syrian that or not, and that is why it is so important that refugees. That is something we can talk about the current positive momentum of de- because we know the realities on the ground. escalation, verbal and order is maintained. So Clearly, we also want to make sure in the long we can build on that. term, the people who want this have a perspective to go back to their home countries, Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): in particular to Syria proper. But let's be equally Moving on then to Ambassador Sahlin, I would clear, currently, these conditions are not there. like to ask you a Cyprus issue, because as we So all these arguments about safe zones, EU look at this, do you think the upcoming UN- funding for them are completely unrealistic. sponsored talks will bring any solution to the That is just not going to happen. So that is why table? And is there a common ground that can I think let's focus on what is doable in the still be found knowing that the talks collapsed medium term to build on the current moment, on four years ago? And how will Turkey's stance the more broader question of migration policy.

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on a new two-state solution possible Cyprus that time that things were, again, so close to an possibly affect the relationship? agreement. Question is, was it really so close or are the questions of sovereignty and equality Ambassador Michael Sahlin: between the two sides still such an impossible burden to overcome to reach a unification First of all, when I discussed the lack of sincerity agreement that it has now made Turkey and in my first presentation, I meant also the will and made the new president of Turkish Cyprus, the capability to make compromise, generally inclined to actively propose a two-state solution speaking, between all sorts of players in the in one form or another? And the question now region, obviously, including Greek Turkish talks for me is, does that mean that it is even harder now on a lower level about the maritime borders now to find agreements compared to at Crans having been discussed since the Lausanne Montana before? Or are we again finding Treaty almost. Can there be compromise? Is comfort in using the metaphor of darkness there a will and the ability to do so also before before dawn, i.e., that in the Cyprus drama, as audiences? So it is a general question on the connected with all other issues pertaining to Cyprus variety of this broader question. I wish Eastern Mediterranean and beyond, against all really, in view of the importance of timing and in odds there could be some positive move? I view of the link to other issues that can remain guess Ambassador Kaymakci that your blocked before the next European Council comment would be that there is a readiness on summit, I wish I could be more optimistic than I the part of Turkey to promote a solution if there am. But I remember so many times in my career is sincerity shown by the other side. But when I have been seeing people that had just sincerity is key, although a difficult one. visited Cyprus, including a minister of Sweden, foreign minister, who came from Cyprus and told me that it was so close to a deal between Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): the two sides, so close. And she made this Let's get in, Ambassador Kaymakci here. I am gesture showing how close to an agreement it sorry to interrupt, but I guess it would be a right was. And I remember reflecting that the more time to get a response from Mr Kaymakci. you stretch out the rubber bands, the harder the last part will be, and the swifter the bounce- Ambassador Faruk Kaymakci: back. So that was the reflection I made, not Talking about geography. Michael, we belong to knowing of course, but guessing that she was European geography together, and the EU completely unrealistic in that assessment at that membership is our destiny. Sustainability, he time. So what would be now be saying that there mentioned rightly. But of course, it does not only are greater chances than at Crans Montana, depend on Turkey, but also it depends on Greek where a friend of mine served as the UN Cypriots and Greece and of course, the EU, mediator. Of course, everyone was feeling at other EU member states and EU institutions.

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They should continue to play their constructive two important outcomes. One is that we have to role because giving blind support to Greece and reach a common understanding in terms of the Greek Cypriots, it complicates the problems, hydrocarbon resources of the island which also giving veto rights to Greek Cypriots belong not only to the Greek Cypriots, but also complicates the problem. I know the EU's to Turkish Cypriots. So they have to have some system, we all know, but somehow I think EU sort of mutual understanding. And as you might has to play a constructive role. Otherwise, it is remember, the Turkish Cypriots already impossible to break this deadlock. So you proposed a different formula to discuss these mentioned the migration issue in northern Syria. issues and also to discuss revenue sharing in Michael, I can assure you that we have already terms of hydrocarbon resources. And this can 435 thousand Syrians who were in Turkey. also be a confidence building measure between They have gone back. We did not force them. Turkish and Greek Cypriots, between Turkey We did not encourage them. They voluntarily and Greece and also between Turkey and the went back. We are assisting them. So what we rest of Europe. So this is vital. But again, the EU are asking from the EU side to cooperate with also has to play a constructive role. But if the us, with their electricity, with their water, with EU says that Greek Cypriots are right, we fully their bread and with their shelters and houses. support our member, regardless of the fact that So that is what we are asking. Otherwise, we what they ask, whether it is in line with are also in charge of almost 5.5 million internally international law or not, this really complicates displaced people in and around Idlib. There was the question. So there we have to be fair and a question of sincerity in Turkey-EU relations, balanced. The second element of the Cyprus 79 percent of the Turks, they want EU talks would be the new parameters that we have membership. They think that EU membership is to discuss comprehensive settlement. So far, good and they are supporting it. When I ask for more than 50 years, we went with the same these questions to the educated people, I mean parameters, no outcome. And the Greek the people who know what the EU is and not, Cypriots, unfortunately, abused their this ratio can go up to ninety five percent. So membership and they did not want to negotiate. there is this full commitment from our side. And And I think Ambassador Michael rightly we know that our destiny is with the EU mentioned in 2004, we were so close, the membership. I think this Cyprus informal Annan plan was there, but it was not the Turkish meeting, which will take place at the end of April Cypriots who rejected. It was not Turkey who is very important and actually it is not a UN was against. It was the Greek Cypriots who meeting. It is an informal meeting that Turkey rejected it. And despite this, they joined the EU. proposed. And we even wanted this meeting to And as you can remember very well, on the 26 happen before the March council. But anyway, of April 2004, EU 15, before Greek Cypriots it happens at the end of April. There we need joined, they decided to have three regulations

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with the Turkish Cypriots, this promise never membership to the EU is just follow up to our kept. So Cyprus issue is poisoning Turkey-EU NATO and the Council of Europe membership. relations. I think we have to find a solution to We need more consultations in all issues. As this. And Turkey relations should not be a victim Dr Emiliano Alessandri mentioned, we do not of a maximalist and irrational position of one or have many divergences in foreign policy, even two member states. So this is the key to create in Syria, in Libya, in South Caucasia, we want a positive agenda in our relations. And then the the same thing. But the issue that we need more East-Med project, let's be realistic. Of course, consultations, we need more dialogue, and we we are going green and even hydrocarbon need to act together. And if we can do this, we resources are not so welcome in the EU green can prevent many conflicts in the world. In deal system. But nevertheless, we might still Libya. Again, this is not a military intervention. need natural gas. And as you remember, We have a legal agreement to give military Turkey clearly indicated that hydrocarbon education to the Libyans. And it is thanks to resources can be coal and steel. Coal and steel Turkey's efforts in Libya today and in the coming of the new EU, because coal and steel created days, some other European leaders can visit the European Coal and Steel Community and Libya. So it is, again, thanks to Turkey that the the new hydrocarbon resources of the East- new political process has started. We hope that Med can be the new basis of cooperation we can reach a stable, peaceful Libya where I between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. And this work two and a half years. can also bring all the East-Med countries and our offer of organising an international East- Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): Med conference is there. So we hope that East- What are the challenges that Turkey will face Med Pipeline, if it is ever to be realised, it has to throughout the green and digital transitions and be realised through Turkey. We have already what opportunities does Turkey have to ease serving corridor, which can be easily connected this process? So my question to you is, as I to East-Med. And who is going to bury 8 billion listened to von der Leyen's press conference in Euros under the East-Med? Who is going to Ankara, she said that she would be looking at a finance this? This is not feasible anyway, but unique and modern framework and innovative this is the way and we want to see this as a ways to improve the problems and difficulties positive dimension. On the EU-US-Turkey that do lie ahead for the Turkey and European relations issue. In Ankara, one of the most Union. So what is your take in overcoming those active ambassadors in Turkey's EU accession difficulties in implementing a new modern process is the US ambassador. So they want to framework? see a better relation. And I am glad the transatlantic relations are back on the agenda.

And I think this is vital because for us, the

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Assoc Prof Cigdem Nas: new priorities, the digital agenda, the digital market and the green deal, which are making a The customs union is still a very close great impact on the European economy and the relationship, a very advanced form of economic European internal market. So we have this goal integration, because it does not only concern of decreasing greenhouse gas emissions by 55 free trade between the two sides, the industrial percent until 2030 and also reaching climate products, but also it necessitates Turkey's neutrality by 2050. And this necessitates a adaptation and convergence towards the wholesale transformation in production common commercial policy and the commercial methods, in the sustainability of products, in tariff of the European Union. So it is a very close reuse and recycling methods, sort of the sort of relationship. However, as Ambassador creation of a circular economy, reaching energy Kaymakci has mentioned, it has been since efficiency, and also, of course, increasing the 1995 that the customs union has been going. percentage of renewable energy resources. So However, there are several difficulties in the this, of course, necessitates financing. It functioning of the Customs Union, which may necessitates a totally different approach to necessitate a revision of the Customs Union. production, consumption, transportation and all Also, when we compare the Customs Union the other areas of activity. And of course, one with today's deep and comprehensive trade way or another, these transformations related agreements, then we see that the sort of scope with digitalisation and the green deal will also of the customs union is a bit limited because it impact on the trade and investment relations is limited to industrial products and processed between Turkey and the European Union, agricultural products. So the inclusion of because we will see maybe that the focus of services, trade and services, agricultural trade investors will be more on green investment. And and also maybe public procurement should be also in terms of trade there will be maybe a included in the Customs Union. Already in 2016, necessity for Turkish producers to adapt to the the parties had agreed on a sort of framework new production methods and also to the new for both the revision and the modernisation of norms and standards products regulations the customs union. However, we have seen that which will be applicable in the European single there have been a few member states which market. Although maybe it has not been in the rejected or which did not accept to start the framework of 2016 in terms of the customs customs union modernisation. The commission modernisation, it will impact on it. So, we know had earlier asked for a mandate to start the that the EU has sort of allocated about one process in December 2016, and since then, this trillion Euros to make this green transition a mandate has not been given by the council. So reality by 2030. And this sort of financial I think one major obstacle is the political bloc, assistance is not only for the EU member states, which is we need the council to give a mandate. but also for the candidates and the partners, Secondly, of course, now we have these two

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trade partners of the EU. So I think here we will be complicated and complex and complicated in need a close coordination between Turkey and different steps. And I think there are a lot of the European Union in this adaptation process transformative elements to this process that to the green deal and also the digital agenda. should not be underestimated. By embarking on Turkey is one of the important players in the this process, Turkey will implicitly or explicitly value chains of the European internal market. commit to further reforming not only its So, there is a quite interdependent relationship economy, strictly speaking, but more broadly, in terms of trade and investment. And in order its governance and its political systems. That to keep this relationship going and also to was the case when the first customs union was revitalise this relationship and increase the came into play and would be the case again with resilience of these value chains, I think it is very a new customs union to make it very concrete. important that this engagement process will You cannot imagine an upgraded and start with the customs union modernisation and expanded Customs Union without thinking will also include digitalisation, especially in again about corruption, anti-corruption terms of the integration of services, also in the standards, elements of competition in the framework of the customs union and the overall Turkish economy and other key aspects that trade relationship. And also Turkey moving then have a bearing on the political together with the European Union in the green development of the country, not just on its transition, and I think one important step will be economic development. I think, as was already the ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement said, the post pandemic recovery, which is a by Turkey, and I was in a meeting previous to priority for all countries, reinforces the rationale this one and we were talking about this climate for a new and upgraded customs union. There issue and an expert was saying that I think will be nationalistic tendencies following the Turkey's approaching this moment of ratification pandemic. But I think in all far-sighted states, of the Paris climate agreement. It will be statesmen and businessmen alike understand necessary, and furthermore, it will be, of course, that there is no way out of this pandemic on a to the benefit of both Turkey and the EU if there national basis only, to revive and revitalise our is further engagement and cooperation also in economies, we will need more exchanges, these twin issues of the Green deal and the more trade, greater movement of people, digital transformation. tourism, all these different aspects. And currently, as was pointed out, the customs Dr Emiliano Alessandri: union only covers mainly industrial goods and a few of other goods, and there is so much more We cannot under-appreciate how strategic this that can be brought under it. So I think it is not project is. The current Customs Union was itself a gift to Turkey, as Ambassador Kaymakci was a strategic project. Agreeing on an expanded, saying, it is potentially a win-win and one needs upgraded one is, of course, a process which will

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to see the other parties' cards and start the Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): process. It will be a process not a sort of one I do want to thank Ambassador Kaymakci, stage, one step development, a few other points Ambassador Sahlin and Michael Karnitshnig that I picked up on from the discussion. I think and to Cigdem Nas and Dr. Emiliano Alessandri what is happening at the EU level, meaning EU for joining this panel today and all the institutions level, is very important. It reflects the participants who have listened and actually fact that despite differences in views about send in questions, I did not get to ask your Turkey, there is a common denominator, a questions most of all, but hopefully the next two current alignment of sorts within the EU in sessions, as you will listen on, and which is in favour of re-energizing this relationship. That is May and June, they will get to ask more an achievement in and of itself. But bilateral questions in those panels. So thank you very relationship between EU member states and much for joining this evening. And it was a great Turkey will remain as important as before. And pleasure for me as your moderator to be I think one can only hope that talks between amongst you and in listening. Greece and Turkey proceed in the best possible ways. I know that there have been issues even today about the bilateral relationship, but there is a visit scheduled for next week. There are promising developments. And if countries that are more directly affected by the policies of Turkey, such as Greece, want to have this relationship, wants to deepen this relationship, want to move past beyond the difficulties. That is very encouraging for the EU as a whole. So let's not only remain at the level of the big picture, the European Union, the accession process. Let's also look at how different countries and neighbours of Turkey deal with it. And I think there are encouraging signs despite all the problems.

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Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): Bophorous Institute and a lecturer at Galatasaray University. So first of all, thank you Dear ladies and gentlemen, our distinguished very much for joining us this evening. Now our guests, I would like to welcome you all today to panel will first start off with a speech from each our panel on the future of Turkey EU relations. guest and then move on to a roundtable I'm Ayca Aydogdu, international news presenter discussion. And finally, we will be taking your at TRT World and will be your moderator for this questions throughout this. Starting off with evening. Let me introduce our host, The Circle Ambassador Akcapar. The floor is yours. Foundation, a non-profit independent think tank based in London dedicated to Turkey-UK relations and international issues concerning Ambassador Burak Akcapar: Turkey. It has now been two decades since Thank you very much, Ms. Aydogdu, and I'm Turkey became a candidate nation for very happy to be a part of this stellar panel. Let membership of the European Union. Certainly, me first thank the Circle Foundation and Mr. it has been a rocky relationship, but no matter Guzel for organising this event. The Foundation how rocky it gets, Turkey and EU have is working to strengthen the voice of the Turkish inseparable ties. And today we are continuing diaspora in the UK, and it also contributes to the second series and I can say the first one Turkey-UK and Turkey-EU relations. The two was very timely debate and very fruitful one. are no longer one and the same. The UK has Also, the common understanding and outcome traditionally been one of the strongest of that debate was that EU and Turkey need to supporters of Turkey's accession to the re-energize the relationship because it is not European Union. I think we have lost an functioning properly. I guess we can take it from important ally within the EU after the Brexit. But there and continue our talk on how to overcome Europe is not only the EU. We are confident that those differences and ask the question we will continue to have the UK on our side as cooperation or competition in foreign and a capable European voice, if you will, and an security policy. So let me introduce our influential non-EU NATO ally. European panellists for this evening, Ambassador Burak security, stability and prosperity, after all, Akcapar, Director General for Foreign Policy at depends very heavily on countries like the UK the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey. Miss and Turkey and other NATO allies who are not Angelina Eichhorst, Managing Director, EU members as well as, of course, the EU European External Action Service, Professor members. A healthy relationship is imperative Taras Kuzio, Department of Political Science, and in all matters concerning the security and National University of Kiev Academy. Dr Eduard prosperity and well-being of Europe. And I think Soler i Lecha senior research fellow at this is exactly what our topic is today. I have Barcelona Centre for International Affairs and often felt that Turkey is the right place to look Dr Bahadir Kaleagasi, President of Paris 360 degrees in the European world as Europe

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starts in Turkey and Asia also starts in Turkey. fact is that Europe is surrounded by great The Middle East and the Caucasus also start in volatility and fragility. Much of the gaps that Turkey. The Mediterranean stretches from allowed some smaller powers to be daring and Turkey to Spain and the northern experimenting may be closing, which may be a Mediterranean as well. There are three starting good thing certainly for Turkey, who has points when you sit from a chair like this. First is suffered much due to the turmoil creating that Turkey must have her antennas always up, geopolitical gaps in our region. That brings me and secondly, that Turkey must have an to the second point that Turkey needs to be enterprising foreign policy approach that is enterprising in its foreign policy approach and willing and able to take initiative. Thirdly, Turkey also humanitarian. You have seen Turkey defines herself as a European actor. And that is basically taking initiative to pursue three the sweetest thing for Europe as well. Let me objectives in the last four or five years. We have touch briefly on these three points and come to stopped the neighbouring regions and there are the conclusion: My conclusion, let me say this a number of neighbouring regions from from the outset, is that it is about cooperation, disintegrating in the hands of terrorist groups not competition between Turkey and the and a cast of confused international actors. We European Union. So, first the antennas. Well, have had four operations in Syria, for instance, the antennas in every sense of the world. This which have allowed the country to stay unified is the most happening period in foreign policy. and a political track still possible. In Libya our The world lives in a state of flux. Thanks to the assistance is the main reason why this country fifth largest diplomatic network in the world, can now work, can now look ahead with greater Turkey monitors this volatility rather closely. confidence. What one prevents is, of course, There are very significant uncertainties and never appreciated at all. For those of us who divisions over long established parameters like have been working in preventive diplomacy this globalisation, free trade, liberal economic order is unfortunately a sober kind of reminder. It is and uncertainties about the shape and nature of never appreciated, but facts are there. Similarly, the world order. It is evolving, after all, into a by taking action, we prevented the eastern polycentric structure. A struggle is taking shape Mediterranean from turning into a permanent between the old and the aspiring lead powers. international flashpoint. Had Turkey not stood Asia is arising anew. And Asia is not a distant firm behind her rights, those rights would be corner as far as anybody is concerned, not usurped and this would have created a major anymore. In its present form, the global system and very long term rivalry. Now, there is a or world order has been struggling to bring chance for equitable sharing of the resources in stability and solutions to existing problems. The the Mediterranean and the formation of some pandemic has exacerbated many of these inclusive formulas to bring about lasting existing trends. The much underappreciated stability, peace and prosperity to this part of the

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world as well. As far as we are concerned, the start to work on a mutually agreed positive picture is vivid, very much so on our hands. We agenda. The positive agenda should be based had to stop disintegration. We have stopped on concrete and meaningful steps, and those negative trends and opened the room for should enhance the accession perspective of positive diplomatic engagement and re- Turkey's. Given the current intra-EU generation. And thirdly and lastly, Turkey sees environment, the EU has come forward with a herself as a European actor. And this is one comparatively limited scope. We are happy to unchanging dynamic in Turkish foreign policy. play along. Migration is important, but this must We are in a symbiotic relationship as people not be the only agenda item. We also need to sometimes forget. work on strengthening Turkey's EU perspective, Turkey has been part and starting EU-Turkey customs union modernisation process, revitalising the high parcel of the European security level dialogue at summits, realising visa and has actively contributed to liberalisation for Turkish citizens, and having a the security of our continent. better cooperation in the management of irregular migration. In addition to enhanced This is a point of departure as a cooperation in our fight against terrorism. We European country, as a long have a major, major agenda where Turkey-EU collaboration can make a very positive impact. standing candidate for full And let me stop here for the moment. membership to the European Union and a non-EU European Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): NATO ally. We have common Well, thank you for that opening up Ambassador Akcapar. And next I will give it to European interests and Turkey is willing voice, Miss Eichhorst, and maybe also take and able to work in close away some of the things that you have said from there. Maybe she will have something to add to partnership with the EU in that, especially mentioning about the projecting sustainable peace, geopolitical importance of Turkey in the sense security and prosperity in our of in the region. And also, you said that it is cooperation and not competition. And I guess region. my question would be during the pandemic, Please tell European citizens how much Turkey does it always become cooperation or is it about contributes to their security and prosperity. We every country's own stability? When it comes to expect a similar readiness to work with Turkey that question? I do want to duck myself. And on the part of the European Union. We want to also you talked about East-Med there I will bring

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that in later on in the conversation. So Miss political investment and the very clear focus of Eichorst the floor is all yours. the joint work. I must also say in this whole process, since we had now the October council Angelina Eichhorst: conclusions, December, March and even before Turkey never backtracked from its aspiration to Thank you very much for organising this and for become a member. And that is perhaps having me. Greetings from Brussels and very Turkey's most important foreign policy. I dare to good to see my many friends here on the panel ask in that sense, it is also important to know and I look forward to the discussion. Of course, how many people inside Turkey still want to you had already a very good one last week. I become members of the European Union. But if happened to look it up as well. And our friends you look at recent surveys, I looked at the one were here as well. I think it was a good general done by the German Marshall Fund and others, discussion on EU-Turkey relations. And let us you see very much the internal dimension to its focus a little bit more, as was already done by foreign policy go very strongly towards Ambassador Akcapar on the foreign policy. I sympathies for Azerbaijan, for Russia, for actually came back just from an internal Germany, Qatar, Pakistan, you would say not discussion we had on Turkey. As you see, I am necessarily European Union. Understandable, still in the office. But Turkey keeps us quite a lot but it is an issue when you come discussing the in the office these days for good reasons, I European Union, how does that internal always hope. But I must say that we are on this dimension in flight reflect really on what track of de-escalation. And it is quite bumpy, but externally Turkey would like to do. Foreign at least we can see that the sea is calmer now, policy of Turkey, there are two dimensions here, as we like to say. And there are many channels I think, and we cannot forget the recent history opened at many different levels for talks, for of Turkish policy, of the zero conflict with discussion, for dialogue. And this is all pursued neighbours. I was at the time I was based in by the different sides. I think it is quite unique. Damascus at the EU delegation. That was And I have said it many times on webinars like between 2008 and 2010. It was a very active this, do not underestimate the value and the outreach of Turkey to neighbours, a very close importance that the channels work open at all attempt to work with Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, levels. And there were times we did not have Egypt, even Israel and the Gulf. At that time, we that necessarily with Turkey in the way we know the events in the region. We know what wanted to. So at least we are back again to a happened and why that shift sort of turned for moment when there are issues where we tend Turkish policy to be perhaps active in a different to differ, that we can work them out hopefully way. And we call it more assertive in different through dialogue and through work and through theatres, as already described by Ambassador actually looking ahead at the future. So this is Akcapar. It may be perceived as a successful very important to step up and to look back at the

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policy on the inside Turkey, but obviously it has Because I think today we are in put a number of questions down there for the a better place to actually original allies of Turkey, European Union, but also the United States. So the political unpack the areas of possible dimensions of the EU-Turkey when it comes to cooperation then and let's say a foreign policy, but even Turkey and Russia, Turkey and United States is now looked at very year ago, last year was very differently. And I think it is good. It is good that bumpy. Times have changed. and I hope from today we unpack that a little bit Now with the focus on the more. If you have read the report, the high representative and the president of the future, I think we can have a commission submitted to the European leaders better future together, also on in March, you will see we have focused for the region on the theatres where EU and Turkey the foreign policy. meet or perhaps would like to meet even more But for that, there are a lot of the choices that or have not really met on a joint agenda like have to be made are certainly also internally for Libya, Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Turkey. There is no doubt how the internal Caucasus and now also Afghanistan. developments in Turkey reflect on its foreign Afghanistan is increasingly an area, a theatre policy. This is an issue for Turkey to handle. where there is a lot of room for cooperation This is not for the European Union to say, between the European Union and Turkey. And except that we always say when you are a therefore, I fully agree with the ambassador, we candidate country, when you aspire to become have to look deeper at cooperation. This is not a member, you also know the rules and you also about competing with each other. So I wanted know the guidebook, you know what is to use the examples of where we can and we expected from an open democratic society. This should work more together. So in the title here, is part and parcel of the discussion we have as when it comes to a choice between cooperation mature partners in all of this. So I want to stop and competition, I do not go there either. Just here for the next questions to come. Thanks. like the ambassador said, we want to focus on the cooperation where we can work best based Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): on our interests and based on our joint interests, Thank you very much for that Miss Eichhorst, but also based on where we think we can head actually the common language that in the last for the future. I am optimistic about the future series and this one I can hear is that we want to and that would be my last point before we come move on from the negative agenda and hold on to the questions, to that new momentum that we are reaching out for. But if the ambassador has a few things to

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say later on, maybe he can add them. And when forces in NATO and could become a strategic I come to the questions, but next I have Taras ally of Western interests in the Greater Middle Kuzio, the floor is yours. East. Unfortunately, both the US and EU have not attempted to build bridges to Turkey; for Prof Taras Kuzio: example, upon being elected President, Joe Biden recognised the ‘Armenian genocide.’ Although I work in Kyiv, I am British by Turkey is an important potential pro-Western citizenship. Therefore, it is interesting for me to ally in a difficult and important part of the world, hear the background to what has been talked the Greater Middle East. The EU is a serious about. I am not a Brexit voter, but at the same economic player pretending to be a foreign time, I tend to be quite critical of the EU policy power. This was clear when the EU’s standpoint towards Turkey. foreign chief Josep Borrell visited Russia in The EU has missed the boat on March. One area which I think is misunderstood Turkey. The idea that somehow in the West is Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in that the EU is reaching out with last year’s 44-day war with Armenia. Azerbaijan liberated its own territory, with Turkish support, a fig leaf to Turkey saying which had been occupied for nearly three membership is down the road decades. Turkey has de facto provided a NATO umbrella to Azerbaijan through the creation of a cannot be taken seriously strategic partnership between both countries because I do not think the EU signed in June of this year. Western criticism of will allow Turkey to join. Turkey and Azerbaijan displays double standards over whether they support the Widening will be replaced by deepening now territorial integrity of states or separatism? that the UK is outside the EU. An EU continuing France and the US were, along with Russia, co- to widen could have given Turkey membership. chairs of the Minsk OSCE group seeking a With the UK outside the EU, and with the growth peace settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh, but of right-wing nationalist populism this is unlikely. France was always biased towards Armenia. The reality is Turkey is like Ukraine who are The French parliament in November of last both viewed by the EU as lying on the edge of year, both houses of the French parliament Europe. The EU will offer Turkey and Ukraine supported the recognition of the independence integration but not membership. Now, some of Nagorno-Karabakh. How could France, people, in Turkey believe this is sufficient which is also a member of the Minsk Group on because maybe membership is not realistic. Ukraine, support separatism in Azerbaijan and Turkey inside the EU, in addition to NATO, territorial integrity in Ukraine? France would have been a positive development for the supporting Armenian separatism undermines EU. Turkey has the second largest armed

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the international norm of support for the about Turkey relations, we can never leave out territorial integrity of states. the power players and the issues that are Another recent double standard was made by complicated and maybe even for years have not Canada which imposed military sanctions been resolved. So, I guess we will have to bring against military supplies to Turkey blocking the them up and they will be part of the conversation supply of Canadian parts for Turkish drones no matter what. So carrying on, Dr Eduard Soler (UAV’s). Turkey was penalised for supporting I Lecha the floor is yours. Azerbaijan’s defence of its territorial integrity by selling it drones; in fact, a high proportion of the Dr Eduard Soler I Lecha: weaponry used by Azerbaijan in the 2020 44- As an academic and a researcher also, I have day war was Israeli as well as Turkish. Turkey the opportunity not to stick to diplomatic is also not recognised as an important regional language and also to disagree sometimes, actor vis a vis Russia and Iran who are both because that is the way we are going to assertive in the South Caucasus. The fall of advance our knowledge and also our policies. Afghanistan to the Taliban will increase Iran’s The first thing is that I agree that we are tied mischief making and support for anti- together. The ties are very intense, but there are Westernism in the Greater Middle East. Both different kinds of ties. The problem is that some the US, NATO, and the EU have for too long of those ties would be constructive ties, ties that ignored the strategic importance of the South allow you to build something or they could be Caucasus. At an April conference in Baku, oppressive. Ties that too strong and we may President Ilham Aliyev was asked whether the have to risk in which both Turkey and the EU new American administration headed by would think that they are tied together, but in a President Biden had approached Azerbaijan? negative way. It is a risk. It is not a reality. It is He replied ‘No’. The Israelis, Turks, Russians, just a possibility. In that sense, I wish the choice and Iranians have understood the strategic that was to be made was between cooperation importance of Azerbaijan and the South or competition. Competition is not that risky, Caucasus for over a long time, but it seems not there are many countries at those partners that the US, NATO, or EU. Thank you. compete, we Spaniards are constantly

competing with France in many domains and

still we are partners. Probably the EU and the

U.K. will continue to compete and be able to Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): partner as well. The risk, the real one, and I am Well, thank you very much. That was a very afraid that risk, which was not that real frank ending. And I guess from a smooth sometime ago, it has become and that is before opening, we went into quite hard, deep we enter this phase, this current phase of conversation there. I guess when we are talking appeasement. we were getting there quite

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dangerously, is that we were replacing these two homogeneous blocs, neither Turkey nor the difficult, complex, frustrating partnership by EU. But this perception gap about that, how some sort of fluid rivalry, one in which the two cooperative or how adversarial the other is, parties, Turkey and the EU could perceive the unfortunately, I think that has increased. And other as a geopolitical rival, as an adversary, as probably the very interesting remarks by someone that uses its foreign policy arsenal ambassador Akcapar on Syria, I am sure that if against you and your core interests. And this is we were listening some European extremely dangerous, then you are no longer on ambassadors about their diagnosis of the competition. You are on something else. And I situation in Syria and the consequences of the think that we need to avoid that. I am speaking, Turkish policies in Syria, that could be as someone that has been working on Turkey completely different. So there is a big gap and relations for almost 20 years now and who is we need to bridge somehow this gap. There are passionate about it and who is sad by the kind opportunities and there are risks as well. Let me of situation. Then the foreign policy; I do not start with the risk so that they can finish with think the foreign policy or foreign policy some more sweet note. The risk is one which is interests, security interests will be an incentive, rivalry. It is no longer fluid, but becomes more powerful enough to change the course of the structural and also one in which the EU and relationship. I think that the only elements that some of its member states, as well as in Turkey, would change it are either domestic politics as gets embedded in the dangerous games of well as economics. But I do not have the time to alliances and counter-alliances of the Middle elaborate this. I would say it is quite the East, where the zero sum game prevails, or the opposite. Foreign policy and security negative sum game where you accept to lose if cooperation is a hostage of deteriorated EU- your rival loses even more. And the other risk is Turkey relations when this happens. Take, for that this relationship of ours, our relationship is instance, the case of EU-NATO cooperation. hostage also of the extra regional interests, I We were able to cooperate when we were in the mean, of people that have stakes in promoting golden years of the Turkey-EU relations, and it EU-Turkey divorce or lack of cohesion within had become far more difficult the moment the the opportunities. I think that precisely because relations were strained. We could have, in other we are in this phase of appeasement and we circumstances, cooperate much more on need to strengthen the basis of this phase of common interests of democratising and appeasement, we need to work on how to break stabilising the Middle East and North Africa. We this idea that Turkey has or that many Turkey did not? even if it was if you want to score have, that the EU or some of its member states interest or box, because it is our shared have been working to encircle and weaken neighbourhood. There are differences within Turkey. And also, we need to work on the idea Turkey and also within the EU. These are not that some Europeans have that Turkey has

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been igniting the ring of fire. Let's use this phase on us. So the moment, I would say, France and of appeasement to start getting perceptions a Turkey could able to reconcile and end looking bit closer and also perhaps because it is that at each other as geopolitical rivals, and I think maybe sad for the EEAS also about the fact that then everything else will get smoother. we do not always come together as Europeans. Unfortunately, the electoral calendar in France The twenty seven of us and we have seen many and perhaps in Turkey may not help. Thank you. instances in our shared neighbourhood. This also opens up some great possibilities for Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): cooperation amongst selected group of member Thank you very much. I guess a quite a big states, the EU institutions and non-EU statement in the end, the reconciliation between European countries like Turkey, the UK and Turkey and France. Whether that would solve Norway. We could think of possibilities, perhaps also old problems. I wonder whether that is true. the Middle East peace process. And then but And I guess a few speakers would have There will be only one game something to add to that probably. So, next, Dr changer in the EU-Turkey Bahadir Kaleagasi, the floor is yours. relations. It is some sort of Dr Bahadir Kaleagasi: reconciliation between France Thank you very much. It is a great pleasure to and Turkey. This is of be with you and thank you to all participants, paramount importance. colleagues and friends in the panel and the audience. Well, it is a complicated question. It Because even with a country has been a long time since we have been like Spain, which is if you want, dealing with this. But today the world has changed. We are still talking about near future’s as friendly as you could be to Turkey; about Europe of tomorrow, global Turkey. It is unthinkable for the situation of tomorrow. Globalisation prompts Spanish government to have to increased mobility and prosperity to human civilisation, but also it stimulates us to be more choose Turkey over France, not innovative, to deal with global viruses of all only they are our neighbour, kinds. These global viruses do not have passport. They are biological viruses, financial but also they are the members viruses, digital viruses, and terrorism viruses, of the EU and they have much organised crime virus, corruption virus… greater stakes Disinformation virus; a very dangerous one for our democracies, and the most important one, the CO2, carbon dioxide virus. So in this

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context, Europe's future is marked by existential well the citizens of the Turkish Republic. So, questions. All of them are in relation also with Europe should mind his own business. Europe our topic of this evening. Shall the European has to protect its own interests and values for its states finally commit to sufficient coherence and own citizens. Which policy serves them better? solidarity as a pre-requisite to redefine a global To not engage Turkey, to exclude Turkey? Or to role for the European Union? Will they agree to re-engage Turkey in the integration process? confer more effective competences on the EU Secondly, as the membership to the European in the fields of economic policies for instance? Union does not, should not refer to Europe of How can Europe continue to generate soft today. Turkish politics and economics are in power for a more democratic, greener, human transition so is the European integration centric, a safer world? Turkey can be part a part process, especially after the Brexit and beyond of the answer for these questions. the pandemic. Thus, in the hypothesis, an Notwithstanding current or upcoming political outcome of the Conference on Europe's future transitions, the only really tangible, realistic and the other steps which will follow a better strategy for Turkey's global competitiveness is organised European integration system, a to reposition itself as the Western world's better organised, differentiated integration with Euroasian gateway of democracy, economic flexible circles and axes of membership may dynamism and social progress. It is a formula emerge. Then Turkey's future in Europe may which works. When well applied, I worked in the become an easier public debate for national past and can work again in the 21st century with politics. Of course, we have to analyse the a new version, with a new algorithm. I would picture, but also we have to take into account propose at least three recommendations: on the motion picture and the different dynamics methodology, on vision and on action. On the that are shaping not only future, but also today. methodology, a smarter European Union policy Well, today there is just need for political towards Turkey would focus on Europe's leadership in the European Union countries to strategic autonomy and geostrategic explain to the European public that positive sovereignty. No matter how significant today's steps in the relationship with Turkey are not a drawbacks are such as freedom of expression, gift to anyone. They are tools of action to rule of law, a political system in accordance with promote European democracy, democratic Turkey's pluralistic society and tension fields values, regulatory standards, security interests, like Cyprus, the guiding question for the so it is about Europe before anything else. European Union ought to be: “how can Turkey Thirdly, a positive action, because thinking in in the near future become a country that is terms of Europe's own geostrategic progressively in convergence between values sovereignty, as I said, includes policies of smart and interests of European citizens?” The policies of engaging Turkey. This approach reference to “European citizens” includes as involves not only the bilateral scope of the

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relations but has also an impact on the more competitive. European European Union’s digital sovereignty strategy Union also, according to lots of and green transition policies beyond the EU’s current borders. Moreover in the Biden era with studies now, needs to enlarge the revival of the trans-Atlantic relationship and its sphere of influence, the with the search for a better balanced competition and cooperation with China on influence of its rule of law, various issues from technology to trade, but regulations, green transition also to the issues of the taxation policies or policies, digital sovereignty space policies, as well as on how to manage the paradox between fundamental rights, freedoms, policies, security policies… on the one hand, and security, including health One effective tool in this security on the other hand, it would be better for the EU to have Turkey on board. Therefore, it is respect to re-engage Turkey quintessential for the European Union to and, I repeat, this is not a gift to become a global reference and a standard anyone but to European setter in all these areas; digital sovereignty, green deal, energy transition. Countries like interests. Launching the talks Turkey must invest in clean energy for a modernised customs technologies, promote sustainable cities, comply with the upcoming carbon footprint to union, including digital, green protect their trade competitiveness and clean and social dynamics energy investment requirements. The stakes A customs union 5.0 version should not be are high for all sides to protect their delayed because of political shortsightedness. competitiveness in the European Union market, Turkey should align itself with European digital vis a vis third country rivals and have access to single market and European green deal as well finance. as the trans-Atlantic economy, policies on energy, refugees, Russia, China… This is clear triple win formula. win for Turkey, win for Europe and win for Europe's neighborhood and beyond.

Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): Turkey will need to invest and Well, thank you very much. That was the needs to align itself with the conclusion now all the speeches by Dr. European Union's new policies Kaleagasi. I guess it is fair to say when we talk about the Turkey-EU relations, we do try to in order to become globally grasp that new momentum and stay on the

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positive agenda. But as you can see, so many Lecha's warning and I take it seriously. And I do international matters were raised just in this not think that the Turkey-EU relationship, conversation, and I can not really say how many NATO-EU cooperation, just like any such they were. So I guess, as we say, it is a rocky relationship in international affairs, can be left to relationship, but with inseparable ties. But there its own devices. We have seen that we can take are so many matters to be discussed. So I very different positions on matters that are guess even if the diplomacy is there, there is still rather clear to each one of us from our own many barriers to break and many issues to vantage points. In Syria, for instance, the issue overcome. As we heard from each speaker on was very explicit for us that there are two a different point of view and different take. terrorist organisations claiming land on a Starting off with now to our roundtable country that is embroiled in a war for a decade discussion with Ambassador Akcapar. I did or so. And we had to take action to make sure prepared questions, but so many points came that these two terrorist entities do not hold up already and so many matters were already territory. And we have cleared a vast area from discussed. So I am just going to move on to terrorist presence and now people are what to take from all of this, as there were many returning. Actually, we have been able to see points. And one of them by Dr Lecha, for already the return of some over 400 thousand example, said the reconciliation between Syrians back to Syria. And we are hoping that France and Turkey is necessary to overcome we can cooperate more with the EU and the EU this. Would you agree with that? And Miss countries and others for to promote a voluntary, Eichhorst mentioned about the internal safe and dignified return of Syrians to their own dimensions on whether Turkish people actually country. We have also been able to keep the want to join the EU, want to become part of the diplomatic channel alive, Geneva struggling at EU, whether that is still a topic. Also well, the time when we intervened to make sure that Professor Kuzio was quite frank there that the Syria stayed as a unified country. When we look EU missed the book on Turkey. So generally back and I think, I dare to say that many gathering from all this points, where do you see colleagues who were critical of Turkey's policies the relationship? And looking at the future, can in Syria, Libya and in the eastern we really rebuild that trust? Mediterranean, when they take a breath, sit back and look back, they will recognise and Ambassador Burak Akcapar: appreciate our logic, the logic of stopping the negative trend and negative slide towards Well, thank you. There are indeed a lot of disintegration in our neighbourhood. It is very questions, a lot of tough topics raised, and I do hard to deal with chaotic, disintegrated, not know if I can really do justice to each one of strategic basins. It is much more effective to act them in a short span of time. But maybe I should decisively from the outset and use various start from a general note. I take note of Dr

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capabilities and then to come to a consolidation consultation platforms at all levels. Otherwise, through diplomatic engagement and process. I we will talk past each other and we will not think we have been able to open opportunities understand each other and the tone of the for negotiated diplomatic solutions to some of debate will get sour on all sides. There is no the most intractable foreign policy and security need. There is a remedy for this because policy questions in our multiple regions. And Turkey has, I think, firmly established herself as that is giving us some excitement in the sense a European player, as an EU aspirant and a that there are new opportunities in upper very staunch and capable NATO ally. These are Karabakh in southern Caucasus. There are new the first three credentials, international opportunities may be in the eastern credentials of Turkish foreign policy. Mediterranean and there are new opportunities elsewhere. The question is, of course, there Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): have been disappointments on all sides, but And let me jump in there Ambassador Akcapar what do you do with your disappointments? We to try to get because we are getting many choose to cooperate more. And because we questions as well to use the time wisely. So if believe that what has been going wrong within you do not mind, I will bring in here Miss the European family and that includes Turkey, Eichhorst. And basically, as I said we did can only be handled by talking more earnestly discuss and touched upon so many points. But and more intensively with each other. Now, I guess one of the main things that stood out for there is a structural problem there. The me is that there is a big perception gap as Dr structural problem is that we have been Lecha said that needs to close. And so how do neglecting the NATO as a policy discussion, you close that gap? policy consultation forum. And in the European context, the EU has been providing such a Angelina Eichhorst: forum for its members, but that does not include Turkey. So, the European Union members have I fully agree with this. This is mostly about been talking foreign policy with each other perception. And we have a responsibility there. basically on issues where Turkey is inevitably We are where we are, but mostly also on involved and inevitably taking active stances to leaders and politicians, if you change the public protect its own strategic interests. So I think that discourse about each other or if you tone down, creates a certain dislocation. You need to talk to if you basically mute the megaphones and that the critical players in issues that are important goes internally in the member states, the to you, and I think those of us who are working leaders of the member states who can hardly on mechanisms and policies, we need to make speak about enlargement internally in the EU, sure that in the time ahead we need to intensify not let alone about Turkey or the bigger and deepen, and invigorate these policy agendas, the strategic agendas, they do not do it because they think they lose elections. And

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inside Turkey, as you know, the perception need to definitely work on the perception at all about the EU is very much fed by a media that level. Thanks. either neglects the EU completely or chooses to put the EU in a very different space than where Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): we want to be. There is a lot there that needs to Well, thank you for that Miss Eichhorst, so I'll be done. And I think that is part of the bigger bring here Prof Kuzio. So basically, I will also try picture in terms of changing perception. We get in the questions while I am asking questions. work on that from our side here in Brussels and I want to come just mentioning the comment also with the member states. But we also want coming from that from your area of expertise, to do that through our missions and the people especially when we look at the Turkey-Ukraine on the ground in Ankara in the region. That is relationship as they are getting closer. Is it one big part of the communication, the public possible to achieve some progress in a diplomacy, the reaching out and the messaging common strategy between Turkey and EU in there. But bigger is really and it was mentioned the Eastern Partnership countries and maybe a by one of the speakers, we have to go back positive outcome in that area? again to the strategic drawing board. And that is what we try to do. For those of us who truly Prof Taras Kuzio: believe that we need each other, it is an indispensable relationship. We need to work Yes, but as you know, we will never receive a with each other, there we constantly have the straight answer from diplomats because they drawing board ready on so many areas where are always going to say the official line. The we need Turkey and Turkey needs the reality is that I do not think the EU allow Turkey European Union. And strategically, this is not or Ukraine to join as both are geographically on about only keeping ships away from the the edge of Europe, the EU does not want to Mediterranean Sea. This goes much deeper. anger Russia (in the case of bringing Ukraine in) And you need to focus on the key issues where or have a large Islamic country inside the EU (in there are key differences. I am glad that the the case of Turkey). Not offering Turkey EU Secretary-General of the United Nations is membership is not just a question of personally committed is the Cyprus question. perceptions. Populist nationalism, which This cannot remain unresolved for too long. And promotes Islamophobia, is growing in Europe I think one of the speakers mentioned it once. making it more difficult than it would have been Once you have there an agreement, a in the past to offer Turkey membership. The breakthrough a part where you that that frees up reality is that countries like Turkey, Georgia, so much space to work in other parts. So lots of and Ukraine are more likely to be offered work to be done ahead we will do that. But we integration and access to the EU customs union then being invited to join and become members. On the question of geopolitics, I do not believe

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the EU is able to conduct a coherent foreign meet, discuss and share a common diagnosis policy because with many members it is too about which are the problems, the challenges diverse. Nevertheless, the EU and NATO and the solutions. As I said, to make also the should re-build bridges to Turkey as a Middle East and North Africa and the wider potentially important strategic ally in the Greater Mediterranean, because here there are also Middle East. Besides, Azerbaijan there is also risks of these adversarial policies also spilling Libya where Turkey is on the side of the UN in over to the Sahel and West Africa. And it is quite supporting the central government. Meanwhile dangerous as well. The different parties, France and Russia are supporting rebels in the because it is not only two parties EU alone and east of the country. Why is Turkey not receiving then Turkey alone. They are mixed inside. They credit for supporting the Libyan central want the other to align with their position. I think government? The only area of potential that what we need to do is to talk more and be divergence with the US is over Syria where the able, as I said, to get to a common diagnosis. West has not been sensitive enough to the But on top of that I think that the political security question of Kurdish separatism in Turkey. and foreign policy domain will be an incentive Turkey has supported condemnations of the strong enough to change the course of the occupation of Crimea at every vote in the UN relation. I think that we would be able to create because of its opposition to separatism in this common diagnosis to join forces together if general. Therefore, I believe there is room for we are able to change the tone of the accommodation, but the US and EU should not relationship in a broader sense, and then we will promote double standards about issues such be able to work on foreign and security policies Azerbaijan, territorial integrity of states and in the Mediterranean and elsewhere. separatism. Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): OK, well, from there Dr Kaleagasi, I want to I will move on from there to get as many come off to, as you mentioned, this also in your questions as possible to Dr Lecha. Does the EU speech earlier, the visit of Ursula von der Leyen possess the capability to try to align Turkey's and she did focus on talking about the unique strategic interests in the Mediterranean with the and modern framework and innovative ways to interest of the EU? improve the problems with the customs union, with Turkey. What is your take on that, on Dr Eduard Soler I Lecha: overcoming those difficulties and on the implementation of a new framework? Well, not really for two reasons. The first is that we if we are true in the idea of partnership, we should not try to align Turkey with the EU mission in the Mediterranean. We should try to

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Dr Bahadir Kaleagasi: independent and impartial judiciary power. What happened since then is another story. Thank you very much. This is a tangible course While the EU was awfully blocked by Cyprus of action. First of all, once again, membership to and Sarkozy’s France, Turkey also produced its the European Union is not a relevant debate own problems. So it is not a blame game. We today because Europe is changing. That will be are where we are today. We now have to reload probably a better organised, differentiated the same algorithm with a 21st century version. integration. Brexit triggered that. Turkey's This is probably what President von der Leyen domestic political problems? Turkey's foreign also would like to develop as an idea. Customs policy problem? Yes. But not engaging Turkey, Union between Turkey and the European Union excluding Turkey is part of these problems. covers industrial goods and several regulatory These kind of policies produced or contributed alignment fields. It is now time to extend it to or amplified these problems. Policies that are services, agriculture, public procurement and creating problems can not justified to solve the conflict resolution mechanism, but also to the same problems. So we should not repeat the European digital single market and the EU same mistakes and expect different results as Green Deal. And also to overall European Albert Einstein would have said. This is why it sustainable development goals policies. So this will be easier to solve the problems in engaging will be a human centric version 5.0 of the EU- Turkey, not excluding Turkey. How do we Turkey relationship like vision of a society 5.0 know? We know it because it worked this way beyond the fourth Industrial revolution. in the past. Customs Union was a good test. It European Commission's recent industrial 5.0 was a great leverage. Turkey had come to the paper explains this approach. Japan's G20 point of fulfilling the Copenhagen democratic presidency promoted it well. We need that. This criteria, and according to the European is not undermining the problem. This is a way of Commission. It was as well one of the countries trying to solve the problems and avoiding a lose with highest degree of convergence with the EU lose lose scenario where everybody will lose. It foreign policy, including supporting the solution is better to win altogether. in Cyprus. United Nations Secretary-General

Kofi Annan's plan, supported by Turkey, rejected by the southern Cyprus… But Turkey Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): was also a country which had transposed more Thank you. So I am trying to take as many than 50 percent of the European Union's legal questions as possible. So next one to patrimony, the Acquis communautaire into its Ambassador Akcapar. So the question is, we own legal order by 2003, according to the know and accept the cooperation and European Commission once more; and competition between EU and Turkey will always sufficiently fulfilling the Copenhagen political be existed, as in between every country. And in criteria on democracy, rule of law and some cases this is needed. I would like to ask,

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what do they think about the religion convergence work and deal less with such differences? Is the religion difference play a theological questions. more important role in cooperation? Or competition between EU and Turkey? Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): Ambassador Burak Akcapar: Thank you very much, Ambassador. Now, I think this question was and has been asked for quickly to your question has come for Miss some time within Europe, particularly the Eichhorst. Angela Merkel was the strongest European Union has had a debate in itself, defender of the EU-Turkey migrant deal and whether this is a kind of religious union and it improvement of the relationship between the has come to the point in which the union defines EU and Turkey. How do you think Angela itself more as a secular union rather than a Merkel's departure will affect the EU's attitude religious union. Now, that is, of course, for the towards Turkey? EU to define. But what I can say is that in our day and age, cooperation against such divisive Angelina Eichhorst: It is a good question, but world views as the Christian world versus facing they I need to put it in a bigger perspective. a Muslim world or other world is a good Because there are many changes going to approach. And Turkey and Spain had, you happen in politically in the EU this year with would remember, initiated an Alliance of many elections next year, too. So we have Civilisations initiative, which is, by the way, now absolutely no idea where this will take us. But a U.N. initiative which made exactly this point. what is true is that I think Germany has been The world view that defines itself in one of those member states very much wanting contradiction with another and defines it in to work strategically, continue to work conflictual terms, is not the kind of world that I statistically with Turkey and trying to help think the EU citizens nor Turkish citizens would handle, as we say that the bumpy road there. want to live in. And there are opportunities for And certainly Chancellor Merkel has been one us to work against that, as was showcased by of the leaders in this regard, very strong support the Turkish-Spanish initiative. Let me add this for a co-operative, a positive, a good and also: I think we should focus less on whether the effective relationship with the Turkey. I agree EU would admit Turkey or Turkey would want to that we do not always need to talk about the join the European Union. There is a certain track membership. But it is the point is that it is towards EU membership that is at least on because we work in a framework of accession paper there. And there are infinite benefits in that we have such a deep relationship with making the existing mechanisms work and beef Turkey. That makes it very different. And I them up as was underlined by the EU cannot compare Turkey to Norway or to the leadership region recently. We should make United Kingdom or to Ukraine or elsewhere. We

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have very specific relationship on specific issues. And I do not want us to start mixing all of that together. And that framework helps us actually that when we have issues to overcome. And also the fact that Turkey is a NATO member, it helps us actually to resolve them and to not end up in a situation where we do not talk to each other anymore. And thanks for this lovely webinar.

Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator):

Well, thank you very much Miss Eichhorst, for that. And we are coming towards the end, so I am going to end it here. But I have to say, I have taken a lot to myself and to ponder on. And it was incredible speaking to such incredible speakers, all of you, and then the points you have raised. I have to make myself a lot of lessons today. But I guess as we are in an evolving world, especially as we are going through this pandemic and as many of you mentioned as many elections that will come up and then the balance may shift, the balance may change. But I hope myself that from this global problem, we will take on something how to approach globally and that will maybe lead us somewhere a little bit more to bring close to that gap between those bridges. So I thank all of you. And just to remind who our speakers were Ambassador Burak Akcapar, Angelina Eichhorst, Professor Taras Kuzio, Dr Eduard Soler I Lecha and Dr Bahadir Kaleagasi. Thank you, all of you.

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Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): Public Administration, Bilkent University. Well, thank you again for joining us this evening. So Dear ladies and gentlemen, our distinguished as I said, we are starting with the speeches and guests, I would like to welcome you all today to I give the floor to Andreas Papaconstantinou. our panel on the third series of the future of

Turkey-EU relations. I'm Ayca Aydogdu, international news presenter at TRT World and Andreas Papaconstantinou: will be your moderator for this evening. Let me Thank you very much for the introduction, and I introduce our host, the Circle Foundation, a would like to thank the Circle Foundation for this non-profit independent think tank based in invitation to this webinar discussion, which I London dedicated to Turkey-UK relations and understand is the third one in a very interesting international issues concerning Turkey. As series of discussions on EU-Turkey relations. looking at the Syrian refugee crisis and it still So as you know, DG ECHO is the Directorate remains the largest displacement crisis in the General for Civil Protection and Humanitarian world and paying the highest price are children. Aid Operations with the European Commission. So that is a lost generation there. So we ask, And we provide humanitarian assistance based can they rise to the task of this new momentum? on humanitarian needs. And our mandate is to Our panel for us will start off with a speech from protect, to prevent and alleviate the human each guest and each speaker and move on to a suffering while ensuring the dignity of the roundtable discussion. And finally, we will be affected people. Under the EU- Turkey asking your questions. Thank you very much statement DG ECHO's actions have been again for joining us this evening for the third implemented under the facility for refugees in series of Turkey-EU relations seminar. Let me Turkey, and those are focused on providing introduce now my guests, Andreas humanitarian assistance to the refugees in Papaconstantinou, director for Neighbourhood cooperation with the Turkish authorities and and Middle East with the Director General for our implementing humanitarian partners. And European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid as part of the facility, the European Union has Operations, Laura Batalla Adam, the secretary fulfilled its commitments, contracted fully the six general of the EU-Turkey Forum. Professor billion Euros in assistance to refugees in Kemall Kirisci, Non-resident Senior Fellow at Turkey, pledged by the European Union. Over Brookings Institution. Professor Sebnem Koser 4 billion have already been disbursed and more Akcapar Sociology Professor at Ankara Social than 100 projects have been implemented. Sciences University. Professor Martin Ruhs Chair in Migration Studies and Deputy Director of the Migration Policy Centre at the European University and Associate Professor at Saime Ozcurumez Department of Political Science and

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We are helping more than 1.8 also beyond the time frame of the facility. Clearly, there are challenges ahead. We are million vulnerable refugees to aware that Turkey is the country hosting the meet their basic needs through biggest refugee population in the world. Turkey the Emergency Social Safety is doing an extraordinary job on this front, and the European Commission reaffirms its strong Net (ESSN). It is the largest appreciation to Turkey for this. We are also humanitarian cash programme aware that the refugee needs will continue and that the consequences of both the economic worldwide and is implemented downturn in Turkey and the Covid pandemic together with the International that you referred to a short while ago continue Federation of the Red Cross to aggravate the situation of the refugees. As you are aware in a Statement following the and Red Crescent Societies, European Council of March, the the Turkish Red Crescent and EU Member States invited the Commission to present a proposal to the Council for the several Turkish authorities. continuation of financing for Syrian refugees in So within the overall EU-Turkey relationship, I Turkey, as well as in Jordan and Lebanon, by believe that we can safely say that the the way, and other parts of the region. And continued collaboration allows 680 thousand President Ursula von der Leyen, after meeting pupils to attend school through the Conditional with President Erdogan on the 6th of April, Cash Transfer for Education (CCTE) and it is stated that the European Commission will implemented together with UNICEF, the continue to support refugees and host Turkish Red Crescent and the Turkish communities. And by this, we are supporting authorities. Humanitarian actions under Turkey, a country that hosting 4 million refugees the Facility, under the Statement have been and living up to this challenge. President von fully delivered. And so far humanitarian actions der Leyen confirmed that basic humanitarian have been carried forward in a very good way. needs, education and health care will remain But now we are in a new post-Facility phase. priorities. But she also stressed, and that is an We are on the humanitarian side, implementing important point, that EU funding should in the projects under additional funding that we future increasingly create opportunities for secured last year, over 530 million Euros to refugees to earn their own livelihood. I do not continue fulfilling the needs of the refugee only want to stress the Commission's population. And this additional funding I just commitment on future funding, but also I want mentioned was based solely on the refugees to go back to this point made by President von needs. And this reflects the EU's commitment to der Leyen on the future support because it continue supporting the refugees in Turkey,

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focuses on the longer term. Sustainability and Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): the gradual transition into the Turkish system, Thank you very much, Andreas so any future support should also focus on Papaconstantinou. And now to give their enhancing the sustainability of our actions by remarks, second is Professor Sebnem Koser strengthening the self-reliance of the refugees Akcapar. and the reduction of their aid dependency.

Turkey and the European Union stand together Prof Sebnem Kose Akcapar: on the support to refugees in Turkey. The EU and Turkey need to pave the way for a longer Thank you for the kind invitation. I will like to term strategy and more importantly, to create underline a couple of problems or challenges and 62 provide better and successful livelihood and suggest some changes to tackle the new opportunities for the refugees. This is also a realities of migration. Five years have passed very important element here in Brussels, since since the March 18, 2016 agreement, as you we need to convince the EU Member States know. And there are some changes in the and the European Parliament to continue the migration scene in Turkey. First of all, any assistance for refugees in Turkey. Indeed, it is migration agreement should include non- a point I would like to stress that the European Syrians as well. The second one is pushbacks Parliament and the Member States in Council at the Turkish-Greek border, well documented have to agree to provide the necessary budget by Turkish Coast Guard but also by to continue supporting refugees in Turkey and international human rights organizations. This will look very closely at how the additional needs to stop. It not only puts migrants and funding is going to be spent and how a future asylum seekers in harm’s way but also violates transition will be included in that. In that respect, their basic human rights. The third one is that only if we achieve to manage to bring our the migration issue was only one item in the EU- assistance to this next level, we will ensure that Turkey deal back in 2016 and other items on the the support to refugees in Turkey remains a agenda then were customs union, visa free success story as I said previously. We are now, travel, High-Level negotiations which were not as we speak, working very hard on the future concluded due to many reasons. Turkey, package I mentioned. In order to continue however, as a candidate Country should expect providing this support, we are looking forward to to be treated as such. The fourth one is to ease the outcome of the meeting, of the discussion of and facilitate safe and voluntary return. On the Heads of States and Governments at the many occasions, Turkish authorities addressed European Council at the end of this month on their will to work closely with the EU in northern the 24th and 25th of June. It will provide us with Syria in order to establish safe zones. That was guidance on the future of our support. Many also the item number 9 back in 2016, but never thanks and looking forward to our discussion. fully discussed.

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The new EU pact on migration accompany these economic and environmental issues, such as extreme poverty, ethnic and asylum will impose even problems, xenophobia, just to name a few. We more strict measures. This should expect that human beings, when given proposed plan is therefore the chance, even with little available resources, would seek alternative life elsewhere as a nothing but reinforcing coping strategy. And that means migration. Fortress Europe and in sharp While that does not necessarily mean crossing international borders, we know from empirical contrast with the liberal evidence that internal displacement may trigger democracies, international international migration sooner or later. A case laws and conventions, human study is Afghanistan. rights and the right to asylum One problem that we keep forgetting is the human security of migrants. Irregular migrants and protection. It seems that and asylum seekers use the same routes. It is this pact clearly indicates deep becoming more challenging to distinguish divisions on this issue within forced migration with other categories since the reasons of migration are interlinked. A person the EU while trying to stop might leave her country of origin because of migration outside the borders persecution and civil wars. However, it is also true that she loses her livelihood in this process. of the EU. Turkey is obviously one country This does not make her an economic migrant. I which will be directly affected. When we look at am not suggesting to forget about security of major source countries, for example, we can borders and nation-states, but human security expect that there will be even higher migration of migrants should be considered as well. For pressures after the pandemic in the global example, external processing of asylum south. Existing vulnerabilities have risen and applications is under way as the Danish inequalities have deepened not only due to the Parliament just approved a bill recently that pandemic, but also to due to economic would allow them to send asylum seekers to problems related with the pandemic. We live in third countries outside the EU, including not so a risk society. There are uncertainties about the safe countries in Africa until their applications future. On top of that, it is expected that climate are processed. Australia has been doing that for change, droughts, floods, water scarcity and some time. Soon enough, the USA would follow access to clean water, and other environmental suit. Unfortunately, the law also suggests that issues will dominate the agenda in the near an asylum seeker may be retained in that third future. Many social ills and unrest might country, even asylum applications are

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approved. So, externalisation of migration and generation. Second, migrants are not taking the asylum dominates the EU-Turkey relations as jobs of local people, but replacing them in 4D well. So Turkey is protecting EU’s borders for a jobs. In this neoliberal order, all migrants face long time now, but so is Libya, so is Morocco deskilling and consequently exploited in these and Tunisia, etc. More cooperation is necessary 4-D jobs, meaning dirty, difficult, dangerous and along the eastern borders of Turkey – not only demeaning, with very low salaries and no social borders along the EU. benefits. Third, there is a misperception regarding Islamization of the EU. In fact, six This brings us yet to another problem. Almost at percent of the EU population consisted of the turn of the 21st century, migration scholars Muslims back in 2010 and this is projected to defined the upcoming century as the Age of increase to only eight percent by 2030. I Migration. Twenty years later, we can easily mention existing problems and challenges. define it at the Age of Walls. In fact, Tim Perhaps in the second round, time permitting, I Marshall, released a book with the same title. would like to suggest some solutions. He writes and I quote, "We are seeing walls being built along borders everywhere. Half of these borders were erected between 2000 and Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): now, within a few years the EU could have more Thank you very much for that. And a lot to miles of walls, fences, barriers on the borders discuss the especially on the challenges and than there were at the height of the Cold War". where we are today and next to give their I should mention the new facilities at the Greek- remarks. And Professor Kemal Kirisci. Turkish border and along the Syrian and Iranian borders with Turkey. The main reason of walls Prof Kemal Kirisci: is obviously to stop unwanted migration. But building walls also point out extreme divisions in What is it that we need to get the refugees wealth, race, religion, nationality as well as reliance on assistance, humanitarian politics at personal, local, national and assistance and socio-economic assistance international levels. Now there is another wall down to wean them out of dependency on this under the name of Covid vaccination card. Well, assistance? That is one part of the outline. The social exclusion, integration problems, other- other part of the outline is to get them to use ization are the end results of another wall that Andreas's term our own livelihoods. Now, the we build in our societies today. And there are question that I would like to address, how are real and perceived threats, the link between we going to do this? The funds provided by the migration and international terrorism is not one European Union has been mostly distributed to of them. First, radicalism is not brought by through international non-governmental refugees, but by not integrated, discontent organisations as well as United Nations messes among a small minority of second agencies. But the spending of the funds have

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been monitored and evaluated very closely. specifically for creating demand for refugees And there are reports that go into the details of labour in general, not specifically in Turkey. And where this money is going and how it is being we must not forget that the Global Compact on spent. Part of those funds have been spent on Refugees was adopted on the heels of the livelihood. And when I look at it, I recognise that 2015-16 European migration crisis. Had there most of those funds concerning creation of be no migration crisis, there would have not livelihood have addressed the supply side of been a global compact on refugees. And it is accessing livelihood. What does that mean? also a compact that aims to address the That means that Syrian refugees ability to protracted situation in which the overwhelming access the labour market has been supported. majorities of refugees find themselves in the What it is, it exercises like learning Turkish, developing world. Against this background, helping them to participate in vocational personally and humbly, the compact has a great training, acquire abilities that for which there idea. And those of you who are interested can would be demand in the labour market. I have go to paragraph 70 suggesting that countries come across projects such as writing CVs, that are hosting large number of refugees although I remain a little bit skeptical as to how should be provided with trade facilitation. The much writing CVs will help, given that most of idea that products that involve refugee labour the refugees operate in the informal economy. should be extended easier access to the But what I would argue is that the next level markets of developing world. We can go into the must focus on creating demand for refugee details. I appreciate Turkey and the EU has labour. Especially given how Andreas have Customs Union. But then there are other areas, already mentioned or alluded to the Turkish for example, agricultural area or semi economy is not where it was when Syrian processed product. That is one area that could refugees first began to arrive. In 2013, Turkish be explored in the next level between the EU per capita income was almost thirteen thousand and Turkey. And I am keeping my fingers dollars. Turkey was about to graduate to high crossed that the European Commission, in income countries. Today, the Turkish per capita response to the instructions given by the income is falling towards eight thousand dollars president of the commission, may be looking at per capita. I will not go into the details as to why this. The United States, right after the Second this is happening, but this is a reality. And that World War, in an effort to address the Arab- reality has been complicated by Covid. So to Israeli conflict at the Madrid conference, had come back, the Turkish economy is strained come up with qualified industrial zones. This is and challenged as to creating demand for an area that could be explored. So companies Syrian refugees. So for that, I would suggest to that operate in such zones can see their go and study the Global Compact on Refugees, products accessing not just the European which provides a number of innovative ideas Union, but also the United States, Australia,

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Canada, etc. more easily, as long as they think these NGOs, the employ refugees properly through proper European Commission, should certification. This is the kind of ideas, very specific ideas that I again humbly suggest that encourage and hold the hands the next level ought to address. What ought to of such Turkish NGOs. be addressed is also the methodology with I can name such NGOs if necessary, to sign which the European Union funds are put into these partnership agreements. And we must not good work. I support Andreas's point that I think forget that these NGOs are under such those funds have benefited refugees and pressure that often they simply do not have the Turkey significantly. Imagine where we would resources and the time to put these agreements be if that had not been those funds. But much to get together. That is the methodology part. more can be done. In the methodology, and you But addressing this methodology issue would can look it up from the commission websites also help with sustainable development goals, too, if you look at the tables, that shows the especially is very specific one the 17. I think we distribution of those funds, meaning who those need to address the resettlement issue funds were given to, you are not going to find seriously, not with just 27 thousand quotas, but any Turkish NGOs. NGOs are not listed in the more. European Commission's partnership agreements. Today, dare I say, as the Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): Thank you very much. Next to give their professor who has addressed remarks Laura Batalla Adam. these issues since 1989, I would like to argue that today Laura Batalla Adam: there are very powerful, Thank you Ayca and thank you to the Circle Foundation for the invitation. It is a pleasure to successful Turkish NGOs. And be surrounded by friends and experts to discuss rather than using NGOs as this very timely topic as negotiations are going on. I actually have in mind to maybe go back a subcontractors to international little bit in time and fast forward to understand non-governmental where we are in terms of the EU-Turkey organisations and losing statement and our relations with Turkey. But I also feel now compelled to maybe contribute to important proportions of those some of the discussions that have been open, funds to administrative costs, I which have become very technical, I have to say, but very much needed. And I think now

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these discussions that are going on already for we see how the number of arrivals has been over a year on how to renew this deal will indeed decreased. But when we look at the require us to make the most out of this other elements of the deal, like the number of momentum to adapt the so-called deal to the settlements or the returns have been largely needs of today. I mean, not only Covid-19, but problematic and actually in practice not there have also been a number of other happened at all. I think this is one of the challenges along the way. When this deal was elements where I believe that the EU is also negotiated in 2016 and how the situation is right willing to commit more to strengthen the now, five years later, not only in terms of the responsibility sharing and maybe creating an migration situation, but also and more EU wide resettlement scheme to support importantly, I would say EU-Turkey relations Turkey. In this case, coping with this large deserves reviewing it in a way that we can make number of refugees, the numbers remain very this deal work more efficiently. Because low. I mean, I think to date it has been only 28 depending on who you ask, the success of this thousand resettled refugees into the EU. But it deal can be contested in a way, it has clearly also relates about what Professor Akcapar was helped to reduce the number of arrivals to the explaining about the wider political will of the EU. But this should not be the only way in which member states of the European Union to share we measure its implementation and more responsibility and to also to show more effectiveness, obviously. And the thing is that solidarity towards other member states that are most of the components of the deal, facing wider pressure on a migration frontline interestingly or ironically, were not migration states like Greece is being one of them, but also related, but politically related. And I will explain Spain, Italy and a few others. And we also need further at the end of all of my intervention why to address in this future deal the side effects of this has been problematic and this is one of the this statement and the situation that it has led key questions being discussed now on how big countries like Greece, for instance, with the this political dimension should be in a renewed overall burden of its refugee camps and the deal. And I think we are getting already dramatic humanitarian situation it is being lived indications that these two elements, the there. So I think it requires these political migration related elements and the political negotiations that are ongoing to address where ones related to the EU accession process, visa the statement has failed to produce its desired liberalisation talks or the customs union should impact and also restructure it in a way that it be disentangled. And I can already say that becomes more efficient and also prioritises the personally. I think that this would be in the needs of refugees. And when saying this, I benefit of the deal and in the benefit of EU would like to refer not only to maybe the Turkey relations. Maybe I will start with Kemal's situation of Syrian refugees in Turkey, those last point about resettlements in the sense that who are under the protection scheme, but also

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those non-Syrian refugees who are not under aspect of these funds towards the umbrella of this protection regime and are supporting livelihoods of subject to very basic rights and this is important and I think this is part of the discussions, I think refugees. the EU is open to include non-Syrians and their And also addressing a question that I know it is protection schemes, because this is something very sensitive in Turkey, but requires a debate, that in the future we are seeing, for instance, maybe not publicly, but politically for sure, which most of the returns from Greece to Turkey are is the future integration of these refugees or mostly non-Syrians. So this is already a reality. harmonisation, as it is called in Turkey. I think And I think it should be looked upon. And also there is a need to continue supporting the to connect to what Kemal was saying about I livelihoods, as Kemal was saying, not only when think we should look now further ahead. it comes to the labour integration, which It has been more than 10 years remains one of the main challenges in Turkey, that some of these refugees to integrate them in the labour market, but also looking further ahead, we would need to think have been in the country. So by on how to scale up many of these projects that now, their needs have been have been implemented over the past years, which can be considered to be the main changing and some of them are success of the EU Turkey statement. They need now I would say their basic to be scaled. They need to reach more Syrian needs have been covered, population in the country and not only benefit a few and to really make now I think there is a although due to covid-19, we need for a new needs assessment to see how have seen a regression in the situation is on the ground and then based on that plan for the next projects in the next years, meeting those of these basic I know these conversations are difficult because needs. But I think it is important they require political will. There is a lot of to think about the future technical discussions going on where these funds are going to come from and how is this funding, how will it be spent going to be institutionalised. I know that the and what should become a working group monitoring the implementation of the facility can be considered to be one of the priority, And I know ECHO has most, in my opinion, successes when it comes been working on this. Shifting to technically discussing aspects between EU- from this more humanitarian Turkey relations. And I think it has delivered and it is a platform where these discussions could

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take place, but also putting a bit more pressure met technically. So we can also progress on the on how this integration element could be political aspects of our relationship. integrated into the future discussions. We have seen there is the political will to renew this deal. Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): It is on the table both financially but also Thank you very much, Laura. And I think you politically, because only both sides will benefit have summed it up quite well, especially from from this cooperation. Both sides need each what each speaker has raised before you and other. And unfortunately, the problem that we certainly from the last two discussions I have see when it comes to meeting some of its had and remembering the visit of Ursula von der elements has been that both the EU and Turkey Leyen, I can say we talk about the new have elevated this issue of migration at the top momentum, but sometimes I feel that we are of their political agenda and has I would say walking on a thread and we are choosing our both sides have instrumentalised it at some words so carefully. It just not so we do not crash point. So, I think this would need to be this building up of the new momentum again. disentangled in a way by separating the And I do believe that I feel there is not enough migration component from the other political information when I listen to what is about to discussions, which I think is what the council come or what is about to be made as a deal and and its member states is trying to do by offering what how to overcome those challenges that Turkey a positive agenda would be a way to are there. I know that Turkey and the EU have move forward. But we should not forget that had the rocky relationship, but they have always while there has been a lot of recriminations on been together no matter what. So for me, I both sides, and especially from the Turkish side wonder when we can overcome that. That is thin to towards the EU for not having met these line that we are walking on and actually cross political aspects of the deal, I think we need to over and open up to those challenges. So that remind ourselves that these aspects have is from what I have gained so far from the three mainly not been met due to political series that we have talked. And next to give their developments in Turkey and other bilateral remarks is Martin Ruhs. issues between Turkey and the EU. So there are a number of benchmarks that need to be Prof Martin Ruhs: fulfilled when it comes to the visa liberalisation talks, for instance, or even the customs union Thank you very much for the invitation. I am that remain unmet. So I think now we have seen delighted to be part of this panel. I will use the that the escalation of the bilateral relationship few minutes I have for my opening remarks to over the last year, which is very positive, and I share with you some of the results of research think it is a moment to build this momentum and that we have recently conducted and published to find ways in which these obstacles can be a couple of weeks ago on public attitudes to the EU-Turkey statement and to the EU-Turkey

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cooperation on migration more broadly, public cooperation, hypothetical cooperation attitudes in Turkey, in Greece and in Germany agreements. And I should say that we only as the three countries that are centrally affected focus on the core dimensions of the agreements or amongst the countries that are centrally and only on the migration related dimension. So affected by the cooperation. This research is we did not include the visa liberalisation part of a larger report that we did on the EU- customs union and EU accession. And what this Turkey cooperation on migration. And Professor methodology allows us to do is to identify which Saime Ozcurumez who is also on this panel, types of policies generate support or opposition was also co-author of this larger report. I am to the overall cooperation amongst the public, delighted to see Saime with us today as well. So amongst voters. So just share with you three or public attitudes or what we call public policy four key findings. So in terms of the big picture preferences for cooperation on migration, why finding, did we do this work? Not because we think that Our study suggests that voters policies should be made based on public in Germany, Greece and Turkey attitudes. Obviously not, but public attitudes and how people how voters think about policies do support the core features of obviously to some extent constitute a constraint the current EU-Turkey on policymaking, certainly in the longer term and a matter for the political legitimacy of cooperation based on the EU- different types of policies. So what we did was Turkey statement. Most of the we conducted survey experiments with 3900 alternative policy packages that voters across Turkey, Greece and Germany, about 1300 voters in each of these countries. we analyse reduce support There were national samples that were rather than increase support. representative of the country's voting age population with regard to gender, age and So in a fundamental way, there regions where people live. And rather than is general support amongst the asking people what they thought about the public in Germany and Greece different parts of the corporation. So what do you think about resettlement? What you think and in Turkey for cooperation about financial assistance for refugees? We ask on these issues. people to compare different types of policy A few more specific findings in Germany and packages because the deal, of course, is Greece. Amongst German and Greek voters, multidimensional and has different policy we found considerable opposition to dimensions in it. And so we ask people to pushbacks, to the idea of sending migrants who consider and to assess different types of arrive regularly, sending them back from

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Greece to Turkey without first considering their policy of resettling one percent of Syrian claims or applications for asylum. There is refugees in Turkey, about 36000 people each considerable opposition to that amongst Greek year to the current one to one arrangement. So and German voters. German and Greek voters, we do take that as evidence that there is support we found, do support EU financial assistance for resettlement. But there is also a preference for refugees in Turkey, but under certain for a new approach to the resettlement conditions and the conditions is that these funds compared to how it is currently stipulated in the to support is channeled through humanitarian EU-Turkey statement. organisations, as is currently the case and not given as direct budget support to the Turkish Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): government. What we basically find is that if you I will straightaway give the last remarks to think about public views and public preferences, Saime Ozcurumez. the channel of financial assistance, the way in which it is given matters for public support. Of Assoc Prof Saime Ozcurumez: course, this is significant because we know that one of the arguments and one of the grievances Thank you very much. It is always a challenge of on the Turkish side has been that the financial to be the last speaker amongst such assistance has been given primarily via distinguished speakers who have been so much humanitarian organisations and not enough, exposed to the topic and have been really according to the Turkish government. As far as contributors and partners from academia and I understand that not enough in the form of also the policy world. I will pick up from where direct budget support. If you think just about Martin has just left off. We have, just as Martin how the public thinks about this issue of the has mentioned, completed a report on the EU- support financial assistance, but not if it is given Turkey cooperation, particularly on the directly to support to the Turkish government. statement. And we had highlighted a couple of And finally, we have an interesting finding on messages. And I would like to highlight two resettlement. As part of the different policy more in addition to what Martin has highlighted. packages, were introduced a hypothetical policy One of them, it has to do with in the ways in of resettling each year one percent of the Syrian which there is really broad support for the EU refugee population in Turkey to the EU. So that humanitarian assistance that has arrived so far is roughly about 36000 refugees each year in Turkey, and also the fact that it has resettled from Turkey to the EU. And we found contributed towards an evolution of the that this hypothetical policy is preferred to the particular international protection toward a current one to one system by voters in all the social cohesion framework. So that is brilliant. three countries. So but Germans, Greeks and And everybody wants it to be supported even Turkish voters prefer a policy, a hypothetical further. Another one resonates what Professor Akcapar has already mentioned about a focus

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on non-Syrians as well. So migration global inequality, and increasing the climate cooperation for the EU and Turkey would not change which Professor Akcapar has already only be about just Syrians who have arrived in referred to, seem to be very persistent. And in 2011, but would also need to take into account the middle of all this, wherever it is located, the relationship that has been established a Turkey seems to be very centrally involved for a very long time ago from accession negotiations variety of reasons. And for the past decade, it onwards and recognise that negotiation and has also, in fact, repeatedly showed that there also the migration governance that has arrived is a long term challenge of persistent, different today to what it has become with the law on mixed flows of migration, not only forcibly foreigners and international protection, as well displaced, but other ones that are going to be as the Temporary Protection Directive to be there. The other face of the coin is that we are taken further for the benefit of everyone who is now with EU scholars who have been studying seeking, in fact, protection in Turkey. And the migration from very variety of perspectives, but third point, which was a bit of a controversial that there will be a need for human mobility in point, is that the overall aim of international the future as well. While the covid-19 context protection is evidently to support people once might have reminded us there had been a they are displaced, but to be supported also to particular period within which immobility has be complemented by policies that will contribute been the name of the game. There will be to reconstruction. In fact, in their home countries increasing mobility and we are increasingly and also to stop that kind of movement to be being vaccinated to promote that as much as we taking place further and open up the can and as fast as we can. But that is also going opportunities for return when it is voluntarily to be there. So the second question I took the expected by these people to their countries of liberty of asking myself is whether the EU and origin. And that already reminds me of the Turkey can cooperate and how so. That question I had sort of made up for myself and complements, I think, some of the points raised took the liberty to do so. Why do EU and Turkey by Professor Kirisci here. And I will pick up on need to cooperate even further to the future? that with four major contributions. The first one And it reminded me of in 2018 had read a book has to do with the ways in which the fact that by Jacqueline Bahbah on can we solve the Turkey and the EU have had always common migration crises? And she had proposed the interests with respect to migration governance. term distress migration for what has been taking Why? Because as the Global Compact has also place. And I told myself and I would like to share highlighted, there is an increasing interest by all with my colleagues here the idea that Turkey states, despite their diverging policy and the EU really need to cooperate for one instruments and reactions at different points in major reason. Number one, the sources of time, which we have observed significantly, of displaced migration, conflict, global poverty and promoting safe, orderly and regular migration.

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So Turkey and EU can really cooperate around ways. And why not the EU and Turkey that. The name of the game might be to stop cooperate even further on that? The technical irregular migration, particularly in the statement. details have been already highlighted by my However, the indirect or perhaps the most colleagues, and if there are questions, I can go notable and noble objective is to promote safe, into details for that, too. And the fourth point and orderly and regular migration for Turks and for I will add there and then say something outside everybody who seems to be moving through of the box. The third point has to do with policy Turkey, towards Europe and from Europe, tools. As I have already noted, Turkey and EU towards Turkey and elsewhere. The second have cooperated for a very long time and Miss one has to do with the preferences, the common Aydogdu has already called it a rocky preferences that the EU and Turkey have and relationship. That was the term I called as well. will continue to have. And that goes back to my But the relationship has not really completely point about this distress migration. We cannot broken itself. But Laura has mentioned a very highlight even further the idea that the mobility important point that we have been thinking of individuals for their own purposes, including about. for survival, migration, as Bets calls it, or any The EU-Turkey statement other reason, is to be promoted, but at the same somehow became a big, mixed time, distress migration whose root causes are definitely challenging human dignity need to be soup, which requires the prevented. And the EU and Turkey have been entangling of certain issues trying to do that in different parts of the world, including Africa, the Middle East, for a very long around migration, governance time but have been really challenged by major from those that really talk to the context, specific risks and challenges, and I EU-Turkey relationship. recently published an article in democratisation addressing that particular issue. Why is it so But that is the difficult task. So I will leave that hard for the EU to actually promote resilience aside. However, in terms of policy tools, with building in different countries, especially the respect to border management, with respect to ones that are faced by these challenges and really informing each other and enjoying also that the sources of these challenges? The knowledge exchange on social cohesion, third one has to do with the principles that the Turkey and the EU have been doing that for a EU and Turkey seem to be continuously while and they can continue to do so. My last sharing. And I have been repeating that for a three points are a bit outside of the box and I while because it is inspiring that the new pact think they go to the specifics of what EU-Turkey starts with a human and humane approach. And cooperation can really promote. The first one Turkey has been trying to do that in different has to do with protection of youth and resilience of youth who had been really suffering a lot

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throughout all these processes of distress deal? And especially in the changing climate in migration. The second one relates to the Europe as we are moving really away from the aspects of social trauma that is continuous European values without borders and all being throughout the post migration processes and one. And so how do we adapt to the time today gender based violence. These are global and actually make it possible to have a long challenges in forced migration journeys but term sustainability? think the EU and Turkey can point out even further and try to enjoy and actually focus on Andreas Papaconstantinou: with a perspective that has a more Thank you. So many thanks to you and to all comprehensive approach. And the third one has colleagues on the panel for their very insightful to do with more negotiations and more talk, comments. So just to go back to the point I rather than sort of trying to halt communication made earlier, we are looking now here in between these two partners who have a lot to Brussels towards a new package, a new do together. Thank you very much for giving me financial support package for refugees in the opportunity to be together with so many Turkey and President von der Leyen has colleagues that I really respect the work of and referred to that. The idea, as I said, is to so many policymakers. And I look forward to the continue the support and also to ensure self- conversation. reliance and I appreciate very much the

comments that Prof Kirisci made to ensure this Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): longer term sustainability, even within the Thank you very much for that speech. And also contours of the current economic situation, we you have all raised quite a lot of answers need to move in that direction. We have based already from my questions that I was going to our work here on this longer term sustainability ask. And I believe, will only get through probably and transition strategy. So that is an important one or two questions, as we do have a lot of element. And we are here at the EU ready to speakers here who have a lot to share on this develop areas of cooperation with Turkey, issue. But I believe many questions have also which will allow, I use the keywords that we been answered already as to the aspects of the have tabled, a progressive, proportionate and challenges and what lies ahead. So Andreas, I reversible approach, so taken into account the would like to ask you in the next question from challenges and the opportunities to move raising from what you have said, especially forward in our common interest in a step by step when you talked about longer term approach. And if of course, there are sustainability, how do you see that possible? constructive efforts also by Turkey sustained And what Laura has mentioned, that there is a over the next period of time. So the main focus political dimension there until now within the now is the meeting on the 24th and 25th. I tried deals. How can that be moved out in the coming to say that this meeting, that the Circle

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Foundation's initiative is very timely. It is two against their culture. We started to see change weeks before that important meeting where we and the resilience in people. Women also take are going to move towards this new up responsibility and use their agency. They phase where we want to focus on what is want to work outside their homes in waged doable using the current momentum. And we labour and contribute to their family's income. are going to continue along that line. Now, on But the tripartite cooperation is also necessary. the point regarding the statement we are very This means cooperation between local and appreciative of Turkey's hosting a very national governments, civil society actors and substantial number of refugees, the Statement international organizations. Social and remains valid. It is the key framework. And as I economic integration starts at the local level. said, the EU is delivering on its commitments. So, we should give more opportunities and And we are looking forward to working closely funding for local governments and also for civil with our Turkish colleagues and friends. society actors working in certain provinces. The inclusion of the private sector is another area to Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): investigate further. And I am not talking about private sector in Turkey only but private sector Well, moving on to Prof Sebnem Akcapar, you in the EU. There are some examples of that in have raised a lot of challenges on migration, Lebanon and to Jordan to a certain extent, but which lie ahead and which are there, especially very limited. So maybe we should also how it has changed over the 10 years course encourage this private sector involvement when and putting into these internal dynamics into it it comes to integration and devising projects. and where we are today. So looking at Turkey, Before the pandemic, work permits for Syrians though, how do you see the level of integration under temporary protection are made easier but of Syrians today? And can Turkey's internal the same could be extended to non-Syrians so dynamics afford them? that they become part of the formal economy

paying taxes while enjoying social benefits. Prof Sebnem Kose Akcapar: After all, having a decent job is a basic requirement for socio-economic integration. In Good question. We have some good lessons Turkey, there is a project industry and most of and good examples but still, there are many the time, whether we like it or not, more or less missing points, as Professor Kirisci said, Labour similar projects are carried out without bringing market inclusion is necessary and decent jobs change in people's lives. So, proper impact should be introduced. I am so pleased to tell you assessment is needed for those projects run that gender mainstreaming is now added in because we know that most of the projects many projects. Before we used to think that sometimes are million dollar projects and with Syrian women do not want to seek employment many actors involved. An impact assessment at or Afghan women cannot work because it is

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the end of each project is necessary and will Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): lead to good practices. At the Global Research Well, thank you very much for that Prof Akcapar. Centre on Migration at the Social Sciences Prof Kirisci moving on to you now. You wanted University of Ankara, we carry out several to go into some of the details that you already projects on integration and the impact of shared in your remarks. But before getting COVID-19 on mixed migrant groups in Turkey. there, whenever we are speaking, I sort of get We found out that the pandemic put a severe the sense there is expectations, but there is strain on integration and social inclusion reality, as in when a task is set out from the EU, processes – not only for Syrians, but for also for there are some standards that they wants to be those under international protection as well as met. But when you are considering the amount for other circular migrants and foreign domestic of Syrian refugees already in Turkey and with workers. And Laura underlined both Turkey and growing numbers, the reality is how things are the EU need each other to tackle with migration. quite different from the expectations. Can we And that is also a point that I would like to make. balance that out? That would be my question to What we need is to use migration as a you, especially as you mentioned, you want to diplomacy tool because it is still a positive item go more in detail to the spending of the funds on the EU-Turkey relations and migration can and how to create different labour and how it be used to get engaged in a constructive should be distributed in Turkey. dialogue on an equal footing. Obviously, instead of bargaining over refugees and human lives, a Prof Kemal Kirisci: new migration agreement or statement between Turkey and the EU should encompass That is a tough question you are raising with me. sustainable development and fair division of I think there is room for improvement. Prof responsibility and burden sharing. A new Akcapar already referred to, impact migration statement should also allow both assessment, just to give you an idea of what she parties work together against human-induced means. Let me give you an anecdote. One of effects on climate change and climate the most successful municipalities in managing migration. Because it is a pressing issue the presence of Syrian refugees in their already at our doors. Considering the positive community is Sultanbeyli municipality. In a very effects and opportunities of migration, we ingenious way, they set up an association to should find ways to allow safe, regular, and deal with their presence. They are doing a orderly migration flows from a humanitarian and marvellous job and the person that is running it, economic perspective. I think deserves a position at ECHO Andreas. His approach, his philosophy, his will, his determination against all odds really deserves recognition. But he shared with me an example of what I think Prof Akcapar has in mind. He said

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to me, "Dear Prof, we get all these funds like a dilemma is going to be a challenge. And I think Turkish language courses from INGO's and the European Union needs to be receptive and sometimes from the EU directly, they come to engaging in that exercise. And Andreas, I must assess what we are doing. And the assessment say that I got a little bit cold feet when you said is to through metric oriented. How many Syrian that your approach is a progressive, refugees did you intend to engage in the Turkish proportional and reversible one. I had noticed language courses? How many actually that in the new pack, too. In some in the new participated on what frequency?" whereas he pack, there was the idea of carrots, but also said, what I would have liked to see is the sticks. Such a stick that really got me person that is coming to make the assessment concerned, which suggested that visas would to say, please bring me along one refugee and not be extended to countries that are not let me see if they have really learnt Turkish or cooperating on migration with the European not. So that metric issue there needs to be Union. I think that stick strategy should not at addressed as an example of what rightly Prof least be expressed publicly. In practice, it might Akcapar referred to. That is the methodology be there, but stating it openly, I think it is going side. We can go into other details. But I would to raise eyebrows. like to use this to raise a number of challenges that we face. One challenge was embedded in Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): the question that moderator Ayca addressed to So if Andreas wants to pop in here and answer Prof Akcapar and no offence meant but Prof quickly, we would like to give an answer. Then I Akcapar I think skirted around it. And your will carry on with the other speakers. question, can Turkish dynamics afford integration? I think this is a very important Andreas Papaconstantinou: question. Turkish public opinion is not happy with the refugees. I think there are lots of public I used keywords that are in a report that is opinion surveys that are revealing the economic public. It is the EU Turkey state of play of the situation is aggravating. So that leaves the relationship report that was submitted jointly by Turkish government in a very difficult situation. the European Commission and the High On the one hand, the innovative ideas from the Representative of the European Union for Global Compact that I shared with you is Foreign Affairs and Security Policy to the tempting. But then if you move in that direction, European Council. So it is the line. But I fully what that means is that you are going to make agree with you that we want to put forward a their presence permanent. Once you are number of areas of cooperation from migration providing jobs, in the public opinion, it is going management to economic ties, to high level to be clear they are not here temporarily. How dialogues, to people- to- people contacts. There do you get over? How do you resolve this is an offer which is coupled with -in case the situation evolves differently -with a number of

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political and economic consequences. You call because of different regional tensions at the them sticks, but there is no keyword sticks in moment. So, there are different blocs of this report. I see what you mean. But again, as countries within the European Union having I said, this is a calm report. It is a matter-of-fact different positions towards Turkey. But I think report, and it will feed into the decision-making what we have seen in the last months with a that will take place later this month. There is an changing rhetoric from also the Turkish offer on the table. Let's see to it that this offer is government and also a different one coming going to be taken up. from those member states in the EU who have been a bit more critical or vocal against Turkey's Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): actions in the eastern Mediterranean, namely France, but also Greece and Cyprus. I think we I will continue with Laura here, Laura. Angela are reaching an understanding that the two Merkel was a strong supporter of Turkey-EU sides need to cooperate and sit down because migrant deal, and she pushed within the EU to there are many different interests that both assist Turkey on migrants as she will not stand sides have in common. It would be damaging on the next. Do you think the migrant deal with for both sides to boycott this relationship. So I Turkey will be negatively affected? And how do think the need is clear. And I think also in light you see member states at large and looking at of the fact that the EU has not managed to come the new deal with Turkey? up with a comprehensive migration and asylum

policy of its own. So it continues to rely on third Laura Batalla Adam: countries for that. And I think EU-Turkey deal I think at this point in time it will not change. I has become the blueprint for the other deals think all member states are convinced that this that the EU has with external third countries. So deal needs to be renewed. Merkel's role was I think for the good or bad, the two actors are crucial back in 2015, in the midst of what was bound to continue cooperating. There are, of called a refugee crisis, which was in reality a course, some disagreements on the way that management crisis of the migration situation, relate more to political issues. But I think we will but not a migrant crisis in that regard or refugee be seeing in the interest of refugees themselves one. We need to see what will be the future at the end of the day as well, that this support migration policy of Germany. But when it comes from the EU will continue. It is quite likely that to the deal, the discussions are undergoing. So they will continue in the country for the years to we will be seeing this deal being hopefully put come. So I think it is in their interest that we on the table at some point. But this does not provide the necessary support for them. mean that the negotiations are easy. And there are different sensitivities and approaches that the different member states have towards Turkey also due to their bilateral relations or

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Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): has to be it can only be ready if it sorts out the internal dynamics and the internal solidarity Martin continuing with you there to looking at the issues. And so far, I have seen very little EU, moving on from especially when we talked evidence of that. about the migration policy. And that is the member states cannot come together on this and agree. To what extent is the EU ready for a Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): future migrant and refugee crisis? And in terms Thank you, Martin. So moving on to Prof of internal dynamics, EU population’s reaction, Ozcurumez, what kind of deal would you like to as well as the capacity and capability of EU see happening and what do you see for the member states in coping in terms. future?

Prof Martin Ruhs: Assoc Prof Saime Ozcurumez: I think there is widespread agreement amongst I see a brighter future. The brighter future is I EU member states on the need to cooperate think all of us here as panellists and probably with non-EU countries on these issues. There is our attendees as well, agreed on one major public support for certain types of cooperation, matter that we need to cooperate. It is not only but, of course, to deal with an unexpected large Turkey and the EU, but internally, as Martin just inflow of asylum seekers and other migrants, mentioned, within the EU, the states amongst you also need the functioning processes for themselves and also externally to agree on internal solidarity within the European Union. what we have been on, highlighting a safe and And we know that has been very little progress orderly and regular movement of people to be on that front. Today, we spoke about the promoted. So on that note, the brighter future relationship between the EU and Turkey. But, of also lies on the actors themselves. One of the course, when you talk about EU-Turkey major matters here is when politics gets cooperation, it is important to also talk about involved in matters of policy, there is always sort Greece and the dynamics between Greece and of a taint that could always become problematic. the rest of the European Union and of course, And we are hoping that will not be against the EU-Turkey cooperation, the statement has whatever we think will be good for refugees and had some highly adverse consequences in for the public good as a whole, but will be good some areas, including for migrants stranded in for everyone involved. So a brighter future with some of the reception centers under terrible more cooperation and mobility and more conditions on the Greek islands. So internal vaccines as well. Now that we are all towards solidarity, very limited progress. It is a very that too. Have a great evening. Thank you. difficult issue. But I think if the question is, is Europe ready for to deal with another wave of unexpected and large inflows, I think the answer

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Ayca Aydogdu (Moderator): Let's leave it on that sentence. And as you mentioned the vaccines, we can all, of course, share the common values here, having gone through the covid-19 pandemic and also shared the same emotions, same losses and same problems and same challenges maybe that as the verdict on humanity, that we might have learnt a few lessons from there to take on to our next challenges to come. So thank you very much, Andreas Papaconstantinou and Laura Batalla Adam, Professor Kemal Kirisci, Professor Sebnem Koser Akcapar, Professor Martin Ruhs, associate professor at Saime Ozcurumez and for joining us this evening on the third and last series on Turkey-EU relations.

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