Princes of Predation, Thieves of Disorder - A Study of Somali Piracy, 1991-2015 Andreas Bruvik Westberg 1 2 Written to the sound of Dire Straits 3 Acknowledgements This project would not have been possible without the considerable encouragement and support of a great many people, including family, friends, colleagues, communities and institutions. Foremost I would like to give special recognition to the Department of Political Science at the University of Southern Denmark, to the Institute of Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College and to the Danish Maritime Fund, who generously funded my project. I am grateful to the commander of the Royal Danish Defence College, Rear Admiral Nils Wang, who originally conceived of this project. Carsten Melchior and the Danish Maritime Fund deserve a profound recognition for providing the funding to engage in research and travel to many coun- tries, over three years. A particular acknowledgement to the Former Direc- tor and Former Acting Director of the Institute of Strategy, Ole Kværnø and Peter Kim Larsen. I am grateful to Flemming Splidsboel Hansen for entrusting me to the project and introducing my civilian persona to the Danish Defence. I am indebted to my supervisor Jens Ringmose for his endurance and support, and show of trust in me and my project through three very challenging, yet rewarding years of research and education. My profound gratitude to my secondary supervisor Thomas Mandrup for his high op- timism and depths of knowledge about the African continent. I thank my research assistants 'Muse' and 'Isse' from Garowe, Punt- land, who carried out many of the interviews and research along the coast and across the breadth of northeast Somalia. A special thanks to the command and crew of HDMS Esbern Snare for generously allowing my participant-observation aboard the naval vessel during its anti-piracy op- eration off the Horn of Africa. This project would not have transpired to its final state without the hospitality of the inhabitants of Somalia's Mudug, Nugaal, Karkaar and Bari regions, who have been pleasantly helpful and forthcoming during field research. Last but not least I am forever grateful to the whole of my family and close friends, Line, Tove, Tore, Sarah, Tor Christian, Kirsten, Per, Nina, Pernille, Heidi, Malika and Henrik. They have been the rock under my feet. Andreas Bruvik Westberg July 2015 4 Contents Acknowledgements 4 Abstract 8 Resum´e 9 1 Introduction 10 1.1 Relevance and Contribution . 10 1.2 Structure of the Study . 11 2 Methodology 13 2.1 Methodological Design . 14 2.2 Data Collection . 15 2.2.1 Setting and Access . 16 2.2.2 Identification of Informants . 16 2.2.3 Interview Considerations . 20 2.2.4 Interview Guide and Interviews . 23 2.3 Causality, Concepts and Limitations . 24 2.3.1 Causality . 24 2.3.2 Validity . 25 2.3.3 The Background Concept of Piracy . 27 2.3.4 The Systematized Concept: The Pirate Group . 28 3 Review of State of the Art 29 3.1 First Type: Pirate State . 31 3.2 Second Type: Predatory Militia . 34 3.3 Third Type: Local Hero . 35 3.4 Fourth Type: Local Thief . 36 4 Contents of the Thesis 38 4.1 Chapter 5 - Maritime Predation off the Horn of Africa: Introduc- ing Somali Piracy Dataset, 1991-2014 . 38 4.2 Chapter 6 - Bloodshed and Breaking Wave: The First Outbreak of Somali Piracy . 39 4.3 Chapter 7 - Anti-Piracy in a Sea of Predation: The Interaction of Navies, Fishermen and Pirates off the Coast of Somalia . 41 4.4 Chapter 8 - Thieves of Disorder: Pirate Networks and Pirated Communities in Puntland . 41 5 Maritime Predation off the Horn of Africa: Introducing Somali Piracy Dataset, 1991-2014 48 5.1 Introduction . 48 5.2 The Dataset . 48 5.2.1 Variables . 50 5.3 Descriptive Statistics . 51 5 5.3.1 Pre-2005 piracy . 55 5.3.2 Anchorage of Hijacked Vessels . 56 5.3.3 Naval Vessel and PCASP Presence . 61 5.4 Conclusion . 63 6 Bloodshed And Breaking Wave - The First Outbreak Of Somali Piracy 66 6.1 Introduction . 66 6.2 Irregular Piracy, 1991-2014 . 67 6.3 Timing Of South Mudug Piracy . 72 6.4 South Mudug Conflict . 74 6.5 The December 26th 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami . 76 6.5.1 Breaking Wave . 77 6.5.2 Post-Tsunami Behaviour . 79 6.6 First Outbreak Of Somali Piracy . 82 6.6.1 The South Mudug Piracy Model . 83 6.6.2 Dormant Piracy Model . 85 6.6.3 Pirate Coast . 86 6.7 Concluding Remarks . 89 7 Anti-Piracy in a Sea of Predation: The Interaction of Navies, Fishermen and Pirates off the Coast of Somalia 96 7.1 Introduction . 96 7.2 No End In Sight? . 98 7.3 Local Heroes . 100 7.4 Anti-Pirates in Somali Waters . 101 7.5 Contested Waters . 105 7.6 Blurred Lines . 108 7.7 Conclusion . 113 8 Thieves of Disorder: Pirate Networks and Pirated Communi- ties in Puntland 124 8.1 Introduction . 124 8.2 Review of Extant Literature . 125 8.3 Pirate Networks in Northeast Somalia . 127 8.4 Ransom Payment Opulence . 132 8.5 Parasitic Piracy? . 134 8.6 Piracy Dismemberment . 138 8.7 Concluding Remarks . 142 9 Conclusion 143 9.1 Coastal Outlook: Assessing Future Immunity Towards Piracy . 145 10 Appendix 147 10.1 Somali Piracy Dataset (SPD) codebook . 147 6 List of Figures 1.1 PhD research question . 10 1.2 Overall study framework . 12 2.1 Interview question types . 24 2.2 Study's hypothesized interaction model . 25 2.3 Study's flowchart of conceptualization and measurement . 26 3.1 Typology of pirate group - community interaction . 30 5.1 Pirate attacks off the Horn of Africa, 1991-2014 . 50 5.2 Hijackings off the Horn of Africa, 1991-2004 . 55 5.3 Hijackings off the Horn of Africa, 2005-2007 . 56 5.4 Hijackings by Puntland pirates, 1991-2012 . 59 5.5 Hijackings by South Mudug pirates, 2005-2012 . 60 5.6 Pirate attacks below 6th parallel north, 1991-2014 . 61 5.7 Kernel density estimate of naval vessel positions, 1991-2014 . 62 6.1 Number of hijacked vessels in Somalia (by region), 1991-2007 . 69 6.2 Anchorage of hijacked vessels, 2005-2007 . 71 6.3 Anchorage of hijacked vessels, 1991 to 2007 . 73 6.4 Overview of South Mudug region, 2004-2006 . 75 6.5 December 26th 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: maximum wave heights and worst affected districts . 78 6.6 Income distribution before and after impact of December 26th 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami . 82 6.7 South Mudug piracy model . 83 6.8 Pirate incidents off central and southern Somalia, March 2005 to May 2006 . 84 7.1 Somali pirate attacks in the Western Indian Ocean, 2005-2014 . 99 7.2 Somali pirate attacks and naval interdiction positions in the West- ern Indian Ocean, 2010-2012 . 102 8.1 Map of coastal villages of northeast and central Somalia . 127 8.2 Map of vessels hijacked by Black Bay pirates, 2008-2009 . 129 8.3 Map of vessels hijacked by Bari region pirates, 2008-2012 . 131 9.1 Overall research framework of study . 143 List of Tables 2.1 Overview of conversations and interviews . 18 2.2 Overview of conversations and interviews . 19 5.1 Descriptive statistics (1) . 52 5.2 Descriptive statistics (2) . 53 5.3 Descriptive statistics (3) . 54 5.4 Descriptive statistics (4) . 57 5.5 Descriptive statistics (5) . 58 7 Abstract Why did pirate groups form along Somalia's coast in 2005? And why had they nearly all dissolved a decade later? The aim of this PhD project is to investigate the the phenomenon of Somali piracy. The project studies the coastal communi- ties from which piracy has emanated from. Why did maritime predation become such a viral problem in central and northeast Somalia? What happened to these communities as hijacked vessels were brought in on a monthly basis? Finally, what are the solutions towards ending Somali piracy? In this project Somali piracy is understood as a function of economic marginal- ization and insecurity. While these processes may be slow in undermining a com- munity, the argument presented in the study is that piracy is a function of recent and relatively rapid economic and security regressions. The first groups purely dedicated to piracy in Somalia, from the villages of Harardhere and Hobyo, were not formed after a decade-long struggle against illegal fishing - or as coastal in- habitants frequently label them - pirate fishers. Rather, pirate groups formed after a sudden implosion of the economic and security environment of central Somalia's South Mudug region. South Mudug piracy, therefore, was a function of sudden devastation; not slow-burning deterioration. 8 Resum´e(in Danish) Hvorfor opstod der piratgrupper langs Somalias kyst i 2005? Og hvorfor er næsten alle opløste igen et decennium senere? Form˚aletmed dette Ph.d.- projekt er at undersøge fænomenet somalisk pirateri. Projektet studerer de somaliske kystsamfund, hvorfra pirateri er opst˚aet.Hvorfor er maritim krim- inalitet blevet et s˚astort viralt problem i Central- og Nordøstsomalia? Hvad skete der med disse kystsamfund, i takt med at kaprede skibe blev bragt ind til land p˚am˚anedligbasis? Endelig, hvilke løsninger kan sætte en stopper for pirateri i Somalia? I dette projekt forst˚assomalisk pirateri som en konsekvens af økonomisk chok og usikkerhed. Selv om disse processer langsomt kan undergrave et lokalsam- fund, argumenterer dette studie for, at pirateri er en konsekvens af nyere og relativ hurtig økonomisk og sikkerhedsrelateret forfald. De første grupper som blev etableret udelukkende med det form˚alat bedrive pirateri i Somalia, ud fra landsbyerne Harardhere og Hobyo, blev ikke dannet p˚abaggrund af ˚artiers kamp mod illegalt fiskeri { eller som kystsamfundene regelmæssigt omtaler det { piratfiskeri.