DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT A: ECONOMIC AND SCIENTIFIC POLICY Implementing the Paris Agreement – New Challenges in View of the COP 23 Climate Change Conference STUDY Abstract This study summarises the developments leading to the adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015 and provides an overview of its contents. The further implementation process and the roles of the main Parties and other stakeholders are discussed, as well as related international developments and the challenges of the climate change conference in Bonn in November 2017. The study was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI). IP/A/ENVI/2017-04 October 2017 PE 607.353 EN This document was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI). AUTHORS Lorenz MOOSMANN, Environment Agency Austria Henrik NEIER, Environment Agency Austria Nicole MANDL, Environment Agency Austria Klaus RADUNSKY, Environment Agency Austria RESPONSIBLE ADMINISTRATOR Tina OHLIGER EDITORIAL ASSISTANT Eva ASPLUND LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN ABOUT THE EDITOR Policy departments provide in-house and external expertise to support EP committees and other parliamentary bodies in shaping legislation and exercising democratic scrutiny over EU internal policies. To contact Policy Department A or to subscribe to its newsletter please write to: Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy European Parliament B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] Manuscript completed in September 2017 © European Union, 2017 This document is available on the Internet at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/supporting-analyses Please use the following reference to cite this study: Moosmann, L., Neier, H., Mandl, N. and Radunsky, K., Implementing the Paris Agreement – New Challenges in view of the COP 23 Climate Change Conference, Study for the ENVI Com- mittee, 2017, European Parliament, Policy Department for Economic and Scientific Policy, Brussels DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. Implementing the Paris Agreement CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 7 LIST OF BOXES 14 LIST OF FIGURES 15 LIST OF TABLES 16 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 17 1. INTRODUCTION 20 1.1. The Paris Agreement and the climate change conference in Bonn 20 1.2. Aim of the study 20 1.3. Structure of the document 20 2. A BRIEF HISTORY OF CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS 22 2.1. The UNFCCC and the Conference of the Parties 22 2.2. The Kyoto Protocol and the Doha Amendment 23 2.3. Towards a new agreement 24 2.4. The COP in Paris (2015) 26 3. THE PARIS AGREEMENT AT A GLANCE 28 3.1. Mitigation 30 3.2. Adaptation 31 3.3. Loss and damage 32 3.4. Finance 33 3.5. Technology development and transfer 33 3.6. Capacity-building 34 3.7. Transparency of action and support 34 3.8. Global stocktake and increasing ambition 35 3.9. Compliance, meetings, entry into force 36 3.10. Enhanced action prior to 2020 36 3.11. Summary and discussion 37 4. IMPLEMENTING THE PARIS AGREEMENT 39 4.1. Signature, ratification and entry into force 39 4.1.1. Signature ceremony 39 4.1.2. Conditions for entering into force 40 4.1.3. Progress of ratification and entry into force 40 4.1.4. Conditions for withdrawal 41 4.2. Negotiation bodies under the Paris Agreement 41 4.3. COP 22 in Marrakesh (2016) 42 PE 607.353 3 Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy 4.3.1. Mitigation 43 4.3.2. Adaptation 44 4.3.3. Loss and damage 45 4.3.4. Finance 45 4.3.5. Technology development and transfer 46 4.3.6. Capacity-building 46 4.3.7. Transparency of action and support 46 4.3.8. Global stocktake and increasing ambition 47 4.3.9. Compliance, meetings, entry into force 47 4.4. The meeting of the APA and the subsidiary bodies in Bonn (SB 46, 2017) 47 4.4.1. Mitigation 48 4.4.2. Adaptation 48 4.4.3. Loss and damage 49 4.4.4. Finance 49 4.4.5. Technology development and transfer 49 4.4.6. Capacity-building 49 4.4.7. Transparency of action and support 50 4.4.8. Global stocktake and increasing ambition 50 4.5. Progress towards the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement 50 4.5.1. Carbon budget 51 4.5.2. NDC pathway 51 4.5.3. UNEP emissions gap report 52 5. MAIN PARTIES 54 5.1. China 56 5.1.1. Emission profile 56 5.1.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 56 5.2. United States of America 58 5.2.1. Emission profile 59 5.2.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 59 5.3. European Union 61 5.3.1. Emission profile 61 5.3.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 62 5.4. India 65 5.4.1. Emission profile 65 5.4.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 65 5.5. Russian Federation 66 5.5.1. Emission profile 66 5.5.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 67 5.6. Japan 67 4 PE 607.353 Implementing the Paris Agreement 5.6.1. Emission profile 67 5.6.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 68 5.7. Islamic Republic of Iran 69 5.7.1. Emission profile 69 5.7.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 69 5.8. Republic of Korea 70 5.8.1. Emission profile 70 5.8.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 70 5.9. Canada 71 5.9.1. Emission profile 71 5.9.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 72 5.10. Saudi Arabia 72 5.10.1. Emission profile 73 5.10.2. Climate policies and status of implementation of the Paris Agreement 73 5.11. Other Parties 74 6. GROUPS OF PARTIES 78 6.1. Group of G-77 and China 78 6.2. Umbrella Group 79 6.3. Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) 80 6.4. Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) 81 6.5. African Group 82 6.6. Arab Group 82 6.7. Least Developed Countries (LDC) 82 6.8. Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) 83 6.9. Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC) 83 6.10. Environmental Integrity Group (EIG) 84 6.11. Conclusions on the positions of groups 84 7. OTHER STAKEHOLDERS 86 7.1. NGOs and local government organisations 86 7.1.1. Environmental non-governmental organisations (ENGO) 87 7.1.2. Research and independent non-governmental organisations (RINGO) 88 7.1.3. Business and industry non-governmental organisations (BINGO) 88 7.1.4. Youth non-governmental organisations (YOUNGO) 88 7.1.5. Indigenous peoples non-governmental organisations (IPO) 88 7.1.6. Local government and municipal authorities (LGMA) 88 7.1.7. Women and gender non-governmental organisations 89 7.1.8. Trade union non-governmental organisations (TUNGO) 89 7.1.9. Farmers non-governmental organisations 89 PE 607.353 5 Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy 7.2. Groups of countries 90 7.2.1. Petersberg Climate Dialogue 90 7.2.2. The Group of Seven (G7) 90 7.2.3. The Group of Twenty (G20) 91 7.2.4. The Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate (MEF) 92 7.3. International organisations 93 7.3.1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 93 7.3.2. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 95 7.3.3. International Maritime Organization (IMO) 96 7.3.4. The World Bank Group 96 8. OTHER SECTORAL AGREEMENTS 98 8.1. International aviation 98 8.2. International shipping 100 8.3. Fluorinated gases 101 9. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS 103 9.1. UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 103 9.2. Energy markets and policies 106 9.3. Refugee crisis and migration 108 9.4. Emerging topics – geo-engineering 109 10. OUTLOOK: COP 23 AND BEYOND 111 10.1. The conference in Bonn 111 10.2. Negotiating topics at COP 23 111 10.3. The challenges of the COP 23 negotiations 114 10.4. Additional challenges facing the implementation of the Paris Agreement 115 10.5. Beyond COP 23 – Work in 2018 and beyond 117 REFERENCES 118 INDEX 148 ANNEX 1: CONTENTS OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT 152 ANNEX 2: ELEMENTS OF THE DECISION ACCOMPANYING THE PARIS AGREEMENT 154 ANNEX 3: GROUPS OF COUNTRIES AND THEIR MEMBERS 156 6 PE 607.353 Implementing the Paris Agreement LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS A4A Airlines for America AC Adaptation Committee ADP Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action AF Adaptation Fund AILAC Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (Asocia- ción Independiente de Latinoamérica y el Caribe) ALBA Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (Alianza Boliva- riana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América) AOSIS Alliance of Small Island States APA Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement AR5 Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC AR6 Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC AREI Africa Renewable Energy Initiative BASIC Brazil, South Africa, India and China BAU Business As Usual BINGO Business and Industry Non-Governmental Organisations C Celsius C40 Network of 40 cities addressing climate change CAD Canadian Dollar CAEP Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection CAN Climate Action Network CARICOM Caribbean Community CCAFS Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security CBDR Common But Differentiated Responsibilities PE 607.353 7 Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CDM Clean Development Mechanism CDP Carbon Disclosure Project CFCs