El Camino Real BRT Phasing Plan Future Conditions
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El Camino Real BRT Phasing Plan Future Conditions Report - DRAFT Prepared for: SamTrans September 2014 SF13-0692 El Camino Real BRT – Future Conditions Report September 2014 Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background of This Study ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Introduction to the Corridor ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Purpose of the Future Conditions Report ................................................................................................. 2 2.0 FUTURE (2035) DEMOGRAPHIC CONDITIONS ................................................................................ 2 2.1 Travel Demand Model Overview ................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Land use assumptions and growth patterns ............................................................................................ 3 3.0 FUTURE (2035) TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS .......................................................................... 4 3.1.1 Transportation Network Assumptions ......................................................................................... 4 4.0 OTHER FUTURE CONDITIONS ............................................................................................................ 7 4.1 Projected Housing and Job Density ............................................................................................................ 7 4.2 Major Developments Planned ....................................................................................................................... 8 4.3 Major Infrastructure Projects ....................................................................................................................... 11 4.4 Corridor Street Design Concepts ............................................................................................................... 25 5.0 GBI CORRIDOR PLAN FUTURE TRANSIT RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................28 El Camino Real BRT – Future Conditions Report September 2014 List of Figures Figure 1-1 El Camino Corridor – San Mateo County .............................................................................................................. 1 Figure 5-1 2035 Baseline Scenario Projected Residential and Employment Density ................................................ 8 Figure 5-2 Four-Lane Node Improvements (Design Exceptions 2) ............................................................................... 25 Figure 5-3 Six-Lane Link Improvements (Design Exceptions 2) ...................................................................................... 26 Figure 5-4 Six-Lane Node – BRT with Parallel Medians ..................................................................................................... 26 Figure 5-5 Six-Lane Node – BRT with Center Medians ...................................................................................................... 27 Figure 5-6 Six-Lane Node – BRT and Bike Lanes .................................................................................................................. 27 List of Tables Table 2-1 Households and Jobs In/Out of the Corridor ....................................................................................................... 3 Table 2-2 Jobs Per Household Ratio In/Out of the Corridor .............................................................................................. 3 Table 3-1 Transit Boardings Comparison ................................................................................................................................... 5 Table 3-2 Transit Passenger-Miles Comparison ....................................................................................................................... 5 Table 3-3 Transit Trip Length Comparison (Miles) .................................................................................................................. 6 Table 3-4 Mode Share Comparison – Home-Based Work Trips Inside the Corridor ................................................ 6 Table 5-1 Typical Land Use Threshold to Support Enhanced Levels of Transit ........................................................... 7 Table 5-2 Major Developments Along the Corridor ............................................................................................................... 9 Table 5-3 Planned Roadway Improvement Projects ........................................................................................................... 11 El Camino Real BRT – Future Conditions Report September 2014 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE 1.1 BACKGROUND OF THIS STUDY The 2010 Grand Boulevard Initiative Multimodal Corridor Plan (GBI Corridor Plan) identified the need for improvements in both transportation and land use along the El Camino Corridor.1 In San Mateo County, the El Camino Corridor is expected to experience an increase of over 24,800 households and 90,800 jobs between 2005 and 2035 according to 2007 Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) projections. Several past studies identified Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) as feasible along the Corridor. Under this backdrop, the El Camino Real BRT Phasing Plan seeks to set forth a strategy to address mobility issues by attracting ridership and achieving cost-effective performance. The Phasing Plan seeks to identify and develop the following: Benefits and costs of a BRT system; Essential system components; Stakeholder support; Ridership demand analysis; Operating and capital cost estimates; Network integration with existing and future SamTrans, VTA and Muni bus systems; Funding strategy; and Phasing and implementation plan. 1.2 INTRODUCTION TO THE CORRIDOR The El Camino Real Corridor connects San Francisco to San Jose along the Peninsula. El Camino Real (Royal Road in Spanish) is also the historical 600-mile route that connected the former Alta California’s 21 missions from San Diego to Sonoma. For this study the Corridor is defined as the portion of El Camino Real that traverses San Mateo County and the small section in Santa Clara County from the San Mateo County Border to the Palo Alto (University) Caltrain Station. 1 Grand Boulevard Multimodal Transportation Corridor Plan, The Grand Boulevard Initiative, October 2010. 1 El Camino Real BRT – Future Conditions Report September 2014 Figure 1-1 shows the extent of the study corridor. 1.3 PURPOSE OF THE FUTURE CONDITIONS REPORT The BRT Future Conditions Report is one of the tasks included in the BRT Phasing Plan Study. This report draws heavily on existing studies and plans, including those produced by the Grand Boulevard Initiative (GBI). It is intended to provide the reader with information on future land use and transportation conditions that helps in documenting the need to provide an enhanced bus transit system along the El Camino Corridor in San Mateo County.2 This report utilizes 2035 forecast data documented in the GBI Corridor Plan that was obtained through the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) Countywide model. It should be noted that ABAG recently adopted Plan Bay Area, an integrated long-range transportation and land-use/housing plan for the San Francisco Bay Area that includes projections through 2040; however a detailed assessment of future conditions using these updated forecasts was not available at time this report was published. This report presents baseline future conditions of the Corridor, including: Demographics and land use; Transit ridership demand projections; Planned developments and infrastructure projects that would affect travel demand along the corridor; Corridor street design concepts that exhibit “complete street” policies and standards; and GBI Corridor Plan transit recommendations. The increasing intensity of jobs and population, combined with a multi-jurisdictional desire to elevate El Camino Real to “complete street” status correlates with the El Camino Real BRT Phasing Plan’s investigation into enhanced bus service along the Corridor to improve mobility and access for all user types and activities. 2 The 2010 Grand Boulevard’s Initiative Multimodal Corridor Plan contains a more detailed assessment of future corridor conditions than described in this report. The Multimodal Corridor Plan can be accessed at: http://www.grandboulevard.net 1 El Camino Real BRT – Future Conditions Report September 2014 Figure 1-1 El Camino Corridor – San Mateo County 1 El Camino Real BRT – Future Conditions Report September 2014 2.0 FUTURE (2035) DEMOGRAPHIC CONDITIONS Future conditions of the El Camino Corridor have been modeled and analyzed through the GBI. The travel model used for the GBI was a version of the VTA Countywide model updated for the project. This section describes corridor demographics. 2.1 TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL OVERVIEW The VTA model covers 13 counties in and around the San Francisco Bay Area. The model was calibrated to 2000 Census data and validated to 2005 highway and transit observed conditions in 2008 during the development of VTA’s countywide long-range transportation plan (Valley Transportation Plan 2035). The model was also enhanced to model BRT alternatives explicitly in the mode choice equations using the results of market