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Russia's Use of Force and Its Interplay with Ethnic Russia’s Use of Force and its Interplay with Ethnic Identity in Post-Soviet States By: Joseph Meyer B.S. in International Relations, May 2014, Middle Tennessee State University B.A. in Global Studies, May 2014, Middle Tennessee State University A Thesis submitted to The Faculty of The Elliott School of International Affairs of The George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of International Affairs May 15, 2016 Thesis directed by Marlene Laruelle Professor of International Affairs © Copyright 2016 by Joseph Meyer All rights reserved ii Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank, Dr. Marlene Laruelle, Dr. Henry Hale, and Dr. Cory Welt for their advice, guidance, and support in completing this thesis. iii Abstract of Thesis Russia’s Use of Force and its Interplay with Ethnic Identity in Post-Soviet States This project examines Russia’s use of force in separatist conflicts in the former Soviet Union revealing that, contrary to what some have suggested, Russia has not pursued master plan to rebuild the Russian Empire or Soviet Union, and has not pursued a foreign policy driven by ethnic nationalism or imperialism. While Russia has maintained military and foreign policy contingencies for engagement in these types of conflicts in the event of crisis, there is little evidence of extensive Russian pre-planning focused on generating “frozen conflicts,” as a central focus of Russian geostrategy. Instead I find that Russia has used unplanned crises, often resulting from security dilemmas, to “freeze” these conflicts in order advance a number of geopolitical goals focused on ensuring the security of Russian state when the opportunity has arisen. The transformation of these conflicts can have the effect of creating a socio-psychological infrastructure that perpetuates gradual, but observable, change in the ethnic identity of separatist de facto states. Russia’s intervention in these conflicts has developed this infrastructure based on the concept of a “Russian World” to which these separatist groups are said to belong. The Russian World serves a tool of Russian foreign policy in that it has replaced the relationship Moscow had with these separatist entities during the Soviet period. iv Table of Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. iii Abstract of Thesis .................................................................................................................................... iv List of Russian Terms .............................................................................................................................. vi List of Acronyms ....................................................................................................................................... vii Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Case Studies ............................................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 1: Moldova ........................................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 2: Georgia ............................................................................................................................................. 39 Chapter 3: Ukraine ............................................................................................................................................ 43 Discussion of Findings: ......................................................................................................................... 55 Chapter 4: Drivers of Russian Foreign Policy ........................................................................................ 55 Chapter 5: Intervention and Identity: The Effect on the Ground .................................................. 73 Chapter 6: Policy Implications ..................................................................................................................... 87 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................... 95 References ............................................................................................................................................... 100 v List of Russian Terms Glasnost: (Russian: openness) The Soviet policy of the open discussion of political and social issues instituted by Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980’s. Korenizatsiia: (Russian: indigenization, literally: putting down roots) Refers to the Soviet nationalities policy of the 1920’s and 1930’s that promoted the ethnic identity of titular groups within union republics and national minorities at lower levels of administrative. Novorossiya: (Russian: New Russia) A historical term denoting the region north of the Black Sea located in modern Ukraine, stretching roughly from Odessa in the west to Rostov in the east. Revived as a term referring to the political project of the separatists Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Oblast: (Russian: oblast) A region or province within a union republic of the Soviet Union; term still used in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Rossiiskii Narod: (Russian: Russian people/citizens) A broad conception of what it means to be Russian, generally encompassing multiple nationalities that make of the people of the Russian Federation. Russkii Narod: (Russian: Russian people) A term used to identify ethnic Russians. It is multifaceted in that it has been used narrowly to advance ethno-nationalist agendas, but has also been used to represent a broader sense of unity among eastern Slavic peoples in general. Sovetskii Narod: (Russian: Soviet people) The demonym for citizens of the Soviet Union; also a political concept representing the coming together of the many ethnic groups and nationalities of the Soviet Union coming together as one. Perestroika: (Russian: restructuring) The process of restructuring the Soviet political and economic system instituted by Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980’s. vi List of Acronyms ASSR: Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic CIS: Commonwealth of Independent States CPSU: Communist Party of the Soviet Union CSCE: Community for Security and Cooperation in Europe (Predecessor to the OSCE) EEU: Eurasian Economic Union EU: European Union JCC: Joint Control Commission KPRF: Communist Party of the Russian Federation LDPR: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia MFA: Ministry of Foreign Affairs MASSR: Moldovan Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization RSFSR: Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic SSR: Soviet Socialist Republic OSCE: Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe UN: United Nations USSR: Union of Soviet Socialist Republics vii Introduction Winston Churchill’s often used quote describing Russia as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma” continues to define popular narratives about Russia over 70 years after he first uttered those words. The personality of Vladimir Putin and Russia’s return to great power politics under his leadership has captivated journalists, scholars, and politicians alike. Many have attempted to explain Russia’s actions as it navigates the first post-imperial stage in its history, often with the aim of predicting Russia’s future course and preparing appropriate responses. This thesis is my attempt to cut through some of the fog surrounding the discussion of Russia’s actions in the post-Soviet period, specifically focusing Russia’s use of military force abroad in the post-Soviet era, and the interplay of such use of force with ethnic identity in the separatist regions in which Russian took military action. The February 2014 Euromaidan protests and subsequent overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych set in a motion a chain of events that has shaken the European security architecture, challenged international norms about sovereignty, and seen Russia’s return to prominence in international politics. The conflict in Ukraine, which has seen the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and the proclamation of separatist “people’s republics” in eastern Ukraine, has manifested itself in a form of “hybrid warfare,” in which Russian forces have aided irregular separatist units in resisting the Ukrainian armed forces. An intense Russian information war campaign has accompanied the conflict as the Kremlin seeks to control the narrative about the conflict both inside Russia and Ukraine as well as around the world. 1 The conflict in Ukraine has led to renewed questions about Russia’s relationships with the former Soviet republics. Many observers have compared Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, and the failure of the international community to confront Moscow’s actions, to the 1930’s concessions made by Western powers to Nazi Germany. Others have sought to explain Russia’s actions by situating them within the context of a long history of Russian imperialism or a desire by Russia’s leaders to rebuild the Soviet Union, referencing Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia as further evidence. Still others have taken a more nuanced
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