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Interim Report Meta-analysis of Outcomes of Investment in the 12 Local Sustainable Transport Fund Large Projects: Interim Report Report to the Department for Transport Lynn Sloman, Sally Cairns, Anna Goodman, Jean Hopkin and Ian Taylor Transport for Quality of Life and TRL Project name: Meta-analysis of outcomes of investment in the 12 Local Sustainable Transport Fund Large Projects: Interim Report to Department for Transport Client Reference: RM3985 SB-2126 T-TEAR Lot 2 Client: Department for Transport Date: 3 February 2016 Version: 160203 / FINAL. This version replaces 150813/FINAL and rectifies an error in Figure 16.1 Citation The preferred citation for this report is: Sloman L, Cairns S, Goodman A, Hopkin J and Taylor I (2015) Meta-analysis of outcomes of investment in the 12 Local Sustainable Transport Fund Large Projects: Interim Report to Department for Transport Disclaimer Although this report is published by the Department for Transport (DfT), the findings and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the DfT. While these parties have made every effort to ensure the information in this document is accurate, DfT do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of that information; and cannot accept liability for any loss or damages of any kind resulting from reliance on the information or guidance this document contains. Acknowledgements The research team are grateful for the assistance of the following individuals involved in the 12 Large Projects: BDRS Large Project Merseyside Large Project Surrey Large Project Louise Fannon Richard Brown William Bryans Edward Fletcher Tom Foulkes Caroline Edgar Mark Hempshall Richard Hughes Telford Large Project Andy Wright Sara Kearney Dominic Proud Bournemouth Large Project Barbara Wade Geoff Kitching Martin Carter Nottingham Large Project TfGM Large Project Phil Channer Rasita Chudasama Paul Kevill Mike Moore Jennie Maybury WEST Large Project CENTRO Large Project Reading Large Project Kiron Chatterjee Sarah Bayliss Paul Gebbett William Clayton Nigel French Dominic Howgego Chris Mason Sara Harte Chris Maddocks John Parkin Rhian Lewis Solent Large Project Ed Plowden Hertfordshire Large Project Richard Alderson Andrew Whitehead Alistair Baldwin Adrian Hickford Lawrence Thurbin John Preston John Rider We also gratefully acknowledge useful inputs from a number of others involved in the LSTF projects; the advice and help of the DfT Steering Group and DfT statisticians; and the work of Clare Harmer, TRL, in the Phase 1 Scoping Study. Cover photographs: CENTRO, BDRS and Nottingham City Council. This report was delivered through the T-TEAR Framework by the ARUP supplier group. Contact: Transport for Quality of Life Ltd T: 01654 781358 E: [email protected] W: http://www.transportforqualityoflife.com Meta-analysis of outcomes of investment in the 12 LSTF Large Projects: Interim Report 2 | Page Contents Contents Executive Summary 7 PART I: CONTEXT, INPUTS AND OUTPUTS 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Background to the research 11 1.2 Objectives of the Local Sustainable Transport Fund 11 1.3 Focus of the interim meta-analysis 12 1.4 Methodology for the interim meta-analysis 12 1.5 Naming convention for Large Projects 14 1.6 Structure of this report 15 Appendix 1.1: Local authority areas included in analysis of secondary datasets 17 2 Context for LSTF investment 18 2.1 Geographical areas covered by the Large Projects 18 2.2 Population and employment in the Large Projects 18 3 Overview of inputs and outputs 22 3.1 Inputs according to capital or revenue expenditure 22 3.2 Inputs: proportion of project completed 22 3.3 Inputs according to project activity 24 3.4 Outputs: cycling and walking 28 3.5 Outputs: buses and other public transport 30 3.6 Outputs: smarter choices 31 3.7 Qualitative summary of project activities 32 BDRS 33 Bournemouth 34 CENTRO 35 Hertfordshire 36 Merseyside 37 Nottingham 38 Reading 39 Solent 40 Surrey 41 Telford 42 TfGM 43 WEST 44 Meta-analysis of outcomes of investment in the 12 LSTF Large Projects: Interim Report 3 | Page Contents PART II: EVIDENCE ON OUTCOMES 4 Traffic and car use 45 4.1 Overview of objectives targeting traffic 45 4.2 Metrics used to monitor traffic and car use 45 4.3 National data and high level outcomes for traffic and car use 47 4.4 Project level outcomes for traffic 52 4.5 Project level outcomes for mode share 57 4.6 Conclusions on outcomes related to traffic and car use 59 5 Economy: congestion 61 5.1 Overview of objectives and outputs targeting congestion 61 5.2 Metrics used to monitor congestion 63 5.3 High-level outcomes of congestion-relief interventions 63 5.4 Project-level outcomes: average vehicle speeds from Outcomes Reports 66 5.5 Project-level outcomes: average vehicle speeds from DfT statistics 68 5.6 Project-level outcomes: proportion of buses operating on time 70 5.7 Conclusions on outcomes related to congestion 73 6 Bus patronage 75 6.1 Overview of objectives and outputs intended to increase bus use 75 6.2 Metrics used to monitor bus patronage 78 6.3 National bus patronage patterns 78 6.4 Area-wide bus patronage data for Large Projects 79 6.5 Corridor or sub-regional bus patronage data for Large Projects 82 6.6 Route-specific bus patronage data for new or improved routes 86 6.7 Conclusions on outcomes related to bus patronage 90 7 Active travel: cycling 93 7.1 Overview of objectives and outputs targeting cycling 93 7.2 Metrics used to monitor cycling 96 7.3 National trends in cycling 97 7.4 High-level outcomes of cycling interventions in the Large Projects 99 7.5 Project-level outcomes: automatic cycle counts 101 7.6 Project-level outcomes: manual counts and surveys 105 7.7 Intervention-level outcomes for cycling from Outcomes Reports 106 7.8 Conclusions on outcomes related to cycling 108 8 Active travel: walking 111 8.1 Overview of objectives and outputs targeting walking 111 8.2 Metrics used to monitor walking 114 8.3 National trends in walking 115 8.4 Project-level outcomes of walking interventions 115 8.5 Intervention-level outcomes for walking from Outcomes Reports 117 8.6 Conclusions on outcomes related to walking 119 Meta-analysis of outcomes of investment in the 12 LSTF Large Projects: Interim Report 4 | Page Contents 9 Economy: support for job-seekers 121 9.1 Overview of objectives and outputs targeting job-seekers 121 9.2 Scale of activity 123 9.3 Metrics used to monitor job-seeker support programmes 126 9.4 High-level outcomes of job-seeker support programmes 126 9.5 Intervention-level outcomes of job-seeker support programmes 129 9.6 Conclusions on outcomes related to job-seeker support 131 10 Modal shift from behaviour change initiatives 133 10.1 Overview of objectives related to modal shift 133 10.2 Measures implemented to achieve modal shift 134 10.3 Metrics used to monitor modal shift 139 10.4 National data for mode share 140 10.5 Project level outcomes for workplace initiatives 141 10.6 Intervention-level outcomes for workplace initiatives 146 10.7 Project and intervention-level outcomes for non-workplace initiatives 146 10.8 Conclusions on modal shift 148 PART III: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROJECT ACTIVITIES AND OUTCOMES 11 BDRS: bus travel to employment sites 150 11.1 Context 150 11.2 Inputs 150 11.3 Main activities (outputs) 151 11.4 Outcomes 152 11.5 Impacts 153 11.6 Future potential 154 12 Merseyside: support for job-seekers 156 12.1 Context 156 12.2 Inputs 156 12.3 Main activities (outputs) 156 12.4 Outcomes 157 12.5 Impacts 159 12.6 Future potential 160 13 Nottingham: support for cycling 161 13.1 Context 161 13.2 Inputs 161 13.3 Main activities (outputs) 161 13.4 Outcomes 163 13.5 Impacts 166 13.6 Future potential 166 Meta-analysis of outcomes of investment in the 12 LSTF Large Projects: Interim Report 5 | Page Contents PART IV: EVIDENCE ON IMPACTS 14 Carbon emissions 167 14.1 Overview of carbon reduction objectives 167 14.2 Metrics used to monitor carbon emissions 169 14.3 National data and high level outcomes for carbon 170 14.4 Project level outcomes for carbon 172 14.5 The impacts of individual initiatives on carbon emissions 176 14.6 Conclusions on outcomes related to carbon 177 15 Air quality 179 15.1 Overview of air quality objectives 179 15.2 Metrics used to monitor air quality 179 15.3 National data and high level outcomes for air quality 180 15.4 Project level outcomes for air quality 182 15.5 Conclusions on outcomes related to air quality 186 16 Road safety 188 16.1 Overview of road safety objectives 188 16.2 Metrics used to monitor road safety 189 16.3 National trends in road safety 189 16.4 Project-level road safety outcomes 189 16.5 Conclusions on road safety outcomes 193 PART V: CONCLUSIONS 17 Key findings and lessons 195 17.1 Introduction 195 17.2 Main strands of activity 195 17.3 Traffic and car use 197 17.4 Economy: congestion 198 17.5 Bus use 199 17.6 Active travel: cycling 200 17.7 Active travel: walking 201 17.8 Economy: support for job-seekers 202 17.9 Mode shift 203 17.10 Longer-term impacts 204 17.11 Lessons for the design and monitoring of future programmes 206 17.12 Conclusions 211 Glossary of acronyms 213 Meta-analysis of outcomes of investment in the 12 LSTF Large Projects: Interim Report 6 | Page Executive Summary Executive Summary Background The Local Sustainable Transport Fund supported investment in 96 local sustainable transport projects between July 2011 and March 2015.
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