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Employment Land Review

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Employment Land Review Swale Borough Council Swale Employment Land Review Peter Brett Associates with Aspinall Verdi August 2018 Office Address: 33 Bowling Green Lane, London EC1R 0BJ T: +44 (0)20 3824 6600 E: [email protected] ii Project Ref 42314 Name Position Signature Date Andrew Lynch/ Associate / AL / Prepared by Stuart Cook of 24 April 18 Director SC AV Reviewed by Richard Pestell Director RP 04 May 18 Approved by Richard Pestell Director RP 23 Aug 18 For and on behalf of Peter Brett Associates LLP Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved 1 04 May 18 First full draft AL/SC RP RP 2 6th Aug 18 Second draft AL/SC RP RP 3 24th Aug 18 Third draft AL RP RP Peter Brett Associates LLP disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of any matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the contract with the client and taking account of the manpower, resources, investigations and testing devoted to it by agreement with the client. This report has been prepared for the client and Peter Brett Associates LLP accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2018 THIS REPORT IS FORMATTED FOR DOUBLE-SIDED PRINTING. iii Swale Employment Land Review CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 2 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT .................................................................................. 2 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 National policy and guidance........................................................................................ 2 Local Policies ............................................................................................................... 6 3 THE LOCAL ECONOMY ............................................................................................. 7 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 7 Resident economy........................................................................................................ 7 Workplace economy....................................................................................................10 4 THE COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET ...............................................................17 Introduction .................................................................................................................17 Background.................................................................................................................19 The industrial market...................................................................................................22 Strategic Distribution ...................................................................................................37 Waste and Recycling...................................................................................................40 Offices.........................................................................................................................40 Kent Science Park.......................................................................................................46 Sheerness Port ...........................................................................................................55 5 THE DEMAND FOR LAND IN SWALE .......................................................................57 Introduction .................................................................................................................57 Method - the Economic Forecast.................................................................................57 Method - Past take-up.................................................................................................60 The demand for office land..........................................................................................61 The demand for industrial land ....................................................................................65 The Science Park........................................................................................................70 The demand for non-B space employment..................................................................70 Conclusions.................................................................................................................74 6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...........................................................77 Introduction .................................................................................................................77 Policy Recommendations............................................................................................81 August 2018 Lv Swale Employment Land Review TABLES Table 3.1 Employment Densities in Eastern Kent - 2015....................................................... 8 Table 3.2 Swale workforce jobs 2016 (‘000s) .......................................................................12 Table 3.3 Swale job numbers 2000 and 2016, and change ..................................................14 Table 4.1 Size Bands ...........................................................................................................23 Table 4.2 Annual Industrial take-up 2013-2017 (all occupational deals) ...............................27 Table 4.3 Industrial take-up by size, 2013-2017 (all occupational deals) ..............................28 Table 4.4 Examples of occupier take-up transactions 2013-2017.........................................28 Table 4.5 Availability of industrial space ...............................................................................31 Table 4.6 Faversham stock and availability ..........................................................................31 Table 4.7 Sittingbourne stock and availability .......................................................................32 Table 4.8 Sheerness/Queenborough stock and availability ..................................................32 Table 4.9 Rural Swale stock and availability.........................................................................33 Table 4.10 Annual office take-up 2013-2017 (all occupational deals) ...................................42 Table 4.11 Office take-up by size 2013-2017 (all occupational deals) ..................................42 Table 4.12 Availability of office space...................................................................................43 Table 4.13 Faversham stock and availability ........................................................................43 Table 4.14 Sittingbourne stock and availability .....................................................................44 Table 4.15 Sheerness/Queenborough stock and availability ................................................44 Table 4.16 Rural Swale stock and availability.......................................................................45 Table 4.17 Oxford and Cambridge Science Parks................................................................47 Table 5.1 Swale job numbers 2016 and 2036, and job change.............................................58 Table 5.2 Swale industrial annual and average overall losses..............................................59 Table 5.3 Swale office annual and average overall losses....................................................60 Table 5.4 Swale – net demand for office floorspace 2016-2036 ...........................................62 Table 5.5 Swale - gross demand for office floorspace 2016-2036 ........................................62 Table 5.6 Swale - gross supply of office floorspace ..............................................................63 Table 5.7 Economic forecast - office balance .......................................................................63 Table 5.8 Swale gross demand for office floorspace (past trends)........................................63 Table 5.9 Swale office supply and balance (past trends)......................................................64 Table 5.10 Swale – net demand for industrial floorspace 2016-2036....................................65 Table 5.11 Swale demand for industrial floorspace/land 2016-2036.....................................65 Table 5.12 Swale gross industrial supply..............................................................................66 Table 5.13 Economic forecast - industrial balance................................................................66 Table 5.14 Industrial demand – excluding large warehouses (past trends)...........................67 Table 5.15 Industrial supply -excluding large warehouses....................................................67 Table 5.16 Industrial demand with large warehouses (past trends) ......................................68 Table 5.17 Industrial land with large warehouses – balance.................................................68 Table 5.18 Job growth, all sectors ........................................................................................71 August 2018 v Swale Employment Land Review FIGURES Figure 3.1 Resident Based Wages ........................................................................................ 8 Figure 3.2 Commuting flows – into/out of Swale...................................................................10
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