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RBC Compass 2015 North American Railroad Shipper Survey Survey Taps Into the Views of the Class 1 Railroads' Top Customers

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RBC Compass 2015 North American Railroad Shipper Survey Survey Taps Into the Views of the Class 1 Railroads' Top Customers RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Walter Spracklin, CFA Erin Lytollis, CFA (Associate) (Analyst) (416) 842-7862 (416) 842-7877 [email protected] [email protected] December 2, 2014 RBC Compass 2015 North American Railroad Shipper Survey Survey taps into the views of the Class 1 railroads' top customers. We are pleased to present the findings of our 2015 Shipper Survey. Key findings focus on shippers’ expectations for 2015 regarding: the direction of rail rates; volume growth; and service performance. This year, we also EQUITY RESEARCH solicited shippers' views on recent changes to Canadian rail regulation as Investment Opinion well as anticipated market shifts between CNR and CP. Highlights are as Survey results support premium valuation for follows: rail stocks. The main investment implication of • Pricing gains to accelerate in 2015. Survey results reflect an unexpected our survey is that findings on rail rates and acceleration of pricing expectations as the share of participants volume growth reinforce our long-term thesis forecasting rate increases of +4% to +6% next year more than doubled that rail shares will be awarded higher multiples to 53% (from 25% last year). These results imply upside to our 2015 as free cash flow, and in turn, shareholder core price assumptions of +3% to +4%. Accordingly, we consider survey returns strengthen. Our position is predicated findings on price to have positive implications for rail shares. on positive macro trends (higher volumes) • Shippers' volume outlook is strengthening. Shippers’ volume and strong business fundamentals (real rate expectations once again converged on flat to modest growth (+1% increases, efficiency gains, stable capex) driving a to +5%); however, we note a positive shift in respondents’ volume step-function increase in rail cash flow generation forecasts as the share of participants anticipating modest growth that supports capital distribution at levels similar increased to 51% (from 40% last year). In our view, these results to the infrastructure sector. As dividends and signify greater business confidence due to favourable macro trends share repurchases grow, we expect rail stocks notwithstanding recent commodity price volatility. As a result, we see to be awarded with premium multiples akin upside to our 2015 volume assumptions of +1.4% to +5.1% for the Class to infrastructure stocks as the market realizes 1 railroads despite potential volume headwinds in energy markets from the upside in shareholder returns from the rail the recent decline in WTI. industry's free cash flow potential. • Sentiment on service has deteriorated. Negative reviews (“Fair” or “Poor”) surged to 77% of all service ratings this year (from 32% last year) on account of severe network disruption caused by volume congestion and extreme weather, in our view. We consider the decline in customer satisfaction to be a temporary sentiment shift caused by unforeseen factors that were largely out of carriers’ control. As such, we do not expect respondents’ unfavourable view of rail service to negatively affect railroad shares given shippers’ strong price and volume forecasts for 2015. • CP closes the gap on market share shift. Last year, our survey indicated that CNR was winning market share as 83% of respondents that switched rail providers indicated it was in CNR's favour. This year, however, volume shifts were roughly even. Of the 11 respondents that transferred freight between the Canadian rails in 2014, six favoured CNR and five favoured CP. Looking to 2015, an equal share of respondents (4%) indicated that they will shift volumes from CP to CNR and vice versa. Our discussions with shippers suggest that execution (not price) guides shippers' selection of rail freight providers; therefore, we believe that speed and consistency of service will shape CNR and CP's long-term position in the Canadian freight market. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). All values in CAD unless otherwise noted. For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 29. RBC Compass Table of contents Survey conclusions and key takeaways ................................................................................ 3 Survey approach ......................................................................................................................... 3 Key takeaways ............................................................................................................................ 4 Investment implications ....................................................................................................... 5 Strengthening pricing prospects suggest upside to our forecasts ......................................... 6 Positive outlook for truck rates .................................................................................................. 8 Positive volume forecasts support our outlook .................................................................. 10 Congestion and network disruption impair shipper sentiment on rail service .................... 11 Spotlight on Canadian rail service ............................................................................................ 12 CP closes the gap on market share shift .................................................................................. 15 US rail service disappoints........................................................................................................ 17 Shippers fixate on execution in their evaluation of rail service ........................................... 20 Shippers are pursuing innovative supply chain transformation strategies .......................... 21 Shippers offer diverse perspectives on Canadian freight rail legislation ............................. 23 Multiple proposals put forth for CTA reform ........................................................................... 25 Survey mechanics ............................................................................................................... 26 Survey approach ....................................................................................................................... 26 Respondent profile ................................................................................................................... 26 Market share ............................................................................................................................ 27 December 2, 2014 2 RBC Compass Survey conclusions and key takeaways Survey approach 2015 Shipper Survey. We are pleased to present the findings of our 2015 Shipper Survey. This year, we connected with 51 customers of the six large Class 1 railroads through telephone interviews supported by online questionnaires. As in previous years, the survey focused on rail customers’ views on recent trends and expectations for 2015 related to: 1) The direction of rail rates (i.e., core pricing excluding fuel surcharges); 2) Anticipated levels of business activity (i.e., volume growth); 3) The potential to transfer freight between modes (truck and rail); 4) The level of service provided by the Class 1 railroads; and 5) The impact of the current regulatory environment. New in this survey: Shippers weigh in on supply chain transformation initiatives and changes to Canadian rail regulation. Given our objective of gauging current rail trends, we have updated our question list to gain insight into how shippers are transforming their supply chains to combat congestion and capacity constraints across the North American transportation network. Further, we have revised our questions on the Canadian regulatory environment to obtain shippers’ perspective on recent legislative amendments and the ongoing review of the Canada Transportation Act (CTA). Hot topics: Respondents shed light on Canadian rail market share. Last year, we introduced a set of questions to evaluate the change in Canadian rail service following the leadership transitions at Canadian National Railway (CNR) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP): we noted a negative bias in reviews of CP’s service and a positive bias in assessments of CNR’s service. We also asked shippers if they had transferred freight between the Canadian Class 1 railroads last year: CNR emerged as the clear winner. In 2014, the topic of market share gains and losses in the Canadian rail market remains a focus of investor interest as the robust targets introduced at CP’s 2014 Investor Day underscore a strategy shift from cost cutting to revenue growth. In this context, we have maintained the question set that provides insight on: 1) which carrier is winning share of the Canadian rail market; and 2) what factors are driving shippers to change rail providers. In our view, survey findings on these topics have important investment implications as they provide insight into Canadian carriers’ long term revenue potential. Survey methodology. The approach and methodology employed in conducting a survey are often as important as the results themselves. We direct readers to the Survey Mechanics section at the end of this report for a detailed description of our process. A notable highlight is our efforts to align the sectors represented by survey respondents with the composition of rail revenue. We also prefer to survey larger shippers and 28% of participants spend over $200MM per year on freight services. Exhibit 17 outlines the breakdown of respondents by sector and separately by transportation budget. December 2, 2014 3 RBC Compass
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