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Where Is All the Yield Going?

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Where Is All the Yield Going? Global Fixed Income Bulletin Where Is All the Yield Going? FIXED INCOME | GLOBAL FIXED INCOME TEAM | MACRO INSIGHT | JULY 2021 June turned out to be nothing like May. Indeed, it was DISPLAY 1 a remarkable month with yields continuing to fall, Asset Performance Year-to-Date credit spreads tightening and equities rallying despite ostensibly bearish data/news. With economies and Oil 36.7% corporate results strong, it is logical that credit and equity markets do fine. But, if everything is good Euro Stoxx (Euro) 14.6% macro-economically—and likely to stay good for MSCI Developed Equities 12.0% at least another year—why are yields falling? The S&P 500 11.9% answer lies in expectations, market positioning and the Federal Reserve (Fed). And, maybe most MSCI Emerging Equities 5.4% importantly, the search for yield in an income Global Convertibles 3.0% starved world. US TIPS 2.9% The key June event was the Fed’s mid-month EUR HY 2.9% Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. S&P Leveraged Loan Index The Fed signaled (via its dot-plot) a lift-off for 2.9% policy rates in 2023, with the median expectation US HY 2.3% from committee members for two rate hikes, which Dollar Index 0.1% is earlier than previously communicated at its March meeting. While Chairman Powell downplayed the EUR vs USD -0.2% change in the dots, stating that they would not US CMBS -0.4% change the Fed’s policy forecast until the FOMC EM Local -0.7% saw “further substantial progress”, and that “liftoff is well into the future,” the tone of the press US MBS -0.7% conference, the number of FOMC participants who EUR IG -0.8% brought forward their first hike expectations and EM External -1.9% the hawkish communications by President Kaplan of the Dallas Fed and President Bullard of the St. Global Agg -2.0% Louis Fed, among others, convinced the market US AGG -2.3% that policy preferences had meaningfully changed. German 10y Bund -2.7% Maybe Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) was already done! US IG -2.9% US 10y Treasury -4.2% The truly remarkable impact the Fed meeting had was on the shape of the U.S. yield curve JPY vs USD -6.0% and inflation expectations. In the 48 hours after -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% the meeting (Wednesday to Friday) 30-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 19 basis points (bps) while the Note: USD-based performance. Source: Bloomberg. Data as U.S. Treasury 5-year yield fell only 2bps. This belies of June 30, 2021. The indexes are provided for illustrative the true volatility, as the markets traded chaotically purposes only and are not meant to depict the performance post press release on Wednesday June 16. It is very, of a specific investment. Past performance is no guarantee very unusual for long maturity yields to fall and of future results. See pages 6 and 7 for index definitions the curve to twist/flatten like this before the Fed has even begun to raise rates. In addition, over the second half of the month, the forward yield curve The views and opinions expressed are those of the Portfolio Management team as of July 2021 and are subject to change based on market, economic and other conditions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. GLOBAL FIXED INCOME BULLETIN between 5-year and 30-year yields almost went to zero, which Credit and equity markets were fairly nonchalant by all of historically has not happened until the Fed has almost finished the hoopla in the government bond markets. Both IG and HY tightening! Moreover, even though the Fed did not indicate spreads continued to tighten, seemingly somewhat impervious that it would increase the cumulative amount of tightening to other forces, continuing to make new lows. If the Treasury over the cycle (e.g., the terminal Fed funds rate remained market was signaling trouble ahead, risk markets were not unchanged), the market believed the terminal rate would now listening. As we believe economic data will stay strong be lower than before the meeting. Despite inflation surprising (meaningfully above trend) and inflation will not prove to be to the upside, inflation expectations, as measured by U.S. a problem, market worries about growth deceleration and breakeven inflation rates, fell. Even more astonishingly, this the possibility of the Fed making a policy error by moving to dynamic played out in other countries as well. tighten policy too soon look wrong, in our view. The global economy is doing better. Clearly, the Fed’s actions, although a surprise, was unlikely powerful enough to unleash the market moves witnessed. Other factors which contributed to the rally in government bond yields include: market positioning, particularly among speculative DISPLAY 3 investors; concerns over growth slowdown in U.S.; the COVID Major Monthly Changes in 10-Year Yields and Spreads delta variant and its implications; speculation that the neutral 10-YR MONTH 10-YR MONTH policy rate (i.e., r*) may have shifted lower; and excess liquidity/ YIELD CHANGE SPREAD CHANGE savings. We believe worries about growth will subside; the delta COUNTRY LEVEL (%) (BPS) (BPS) (BPS) variant will not derail economies normalizing given reduced (Spread over USTs) hospitalization and mortality rates with growing vaccination United States 1.47 -13 levels; and, market technicals will stabilize (they always have). United Kingdom 0.72 -8 -75 +5 On the other hand, excess liquidity/savings might be here for a Germany -0.21 -2 -168 +10 while, and it remains to be seen if r* has moved meaningfully, Japan 0.06 -3 -141 +10 although it’s difficult to identify any data which supports such a Australia 1.53 -16 6 -3 change in view. Canada 1.39 -11 -8 +2 New Zealand 1.77 -9 30 +4 EUROPE (Spread over Bunds) DISPLAY 2 France 0.13 -5 33 -2 Greece 0.83 0 104 +2 Currency Monthly Changes Versus U.S. Dollar Italy 0.82 -9 103 -7 (+ = appreciation) Portugal 0.39 -8 60 -5 Spain 0.41 -6 62 -4 South Africa 5.5 INDEX MTD USD MTD LOCAL CHANGE SPREAD CHANGE Hungary 5.5 EM YIELD (%) (BPS) (BPS) (BPS) Brazil 4.2 EM External Spreads 383 -17 Poland 3.5 EM Local Yields 4.76 +15 EM Corporate Spreads 351 -27 U.K. 2.8 Brazil 8.24 +26 275 +14 Russia 2.6 Colombia 6.86 +8 256 0 Sweden 2.0 Hungary 2.29 -1 104 +8 Indonesia 6.45 0 147 +1 Canada 1.8 Mexico 6.93 +23 201 +8 Euro 1.7 Peru 5.23 +41 134 -9 Switzerland 1.6 Philippines 4.29 0 98 +7 Poland 1.20 -6 15 -1 New Zealand 1.5 Russia 6.98 +17 164 +8 Mexico 1.5 South Africa 9.66 -8 314 +6 Indonesia 1.2 Turkey 17.39 -70 472 -10 Venezuela – – 21741 +2180 Singapore 0.7 MTD Colombia 0.5 SPREAD CHANGE Australia 0.2 CREDIT (BPS) (BPS) Norway -0.1 U.S. IG 80 -4 EUR IG 83 -2 Japan -0.2 U.S. HY 268 -28 Malaysia -0.8 EUR HY 282 -10 SECURITIZED Chile -1.6 Agency MBS 65 +3 -2 0 2 4 6 U.S. BBB CMBS 275 -10 Note: Positive change means appreciation of the currency against the Positive Neutral Negative USD. Source: Bloomberg. Data as of June 30, 2021. Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan. Data as of June 30, 2021. The views and opinions expressed are those of the Portfolio Management team as of July 2021 and are subject to change based on market, economic and other conditions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 2 MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT | FIXED INCOME WHERE IS ALL THE YIELD GOING? Fixed Income Outlook Despite all the Sturm und Drang of market action and unfriendly activities. We do expect companies, in general, confusing news flow in June (inflation, employment, supply to be a bit more conservative in cash flow/balance sheet bottlenecks), we do not believe there are big investment management after the searing pandemic experience in 2020. implications beyond the fact that risk-free government yields are getting as low as they likely can without a fundamental The rally in government bonds is fast approaching levels which rethink about the trajectory of economies and policy look too low relative to a sanguine view of the future. U.S. responses. Looking at the facts, we can see business outlooks Treasury 10-year real yields are back near -1%, not far from and confidence surveys at high levels; strong employment lows seen in May or even during depths of despair in February growth; strong productivity growth (no sign in margin 2020. This is not sustainable unless we are returning to a squeezes); strong economic growth (as measured by GDP); secularly stagnant world even worse than experienced prior easy monetary policy (U.S. financial conditions continue to to the pandemic. This could happen if the COVID epidemic set new levels of easiness) despite worries about the Fed has left permanent scarring on the economy, causing potential and other, particularly EM, central banks tightening policy; growth rates to be lower and hence also lowering the neutral and easy fiscal policy, at least in Europe and the U.S. While policy rate to which central banks look to raise rates over policy actions will not continue forever, U.S. supplemental time. Easier monetary policy is required to achieve the same unemployment benefits are slowly expiring, household and growth and inflation rates that prevailed pre-pandemic.
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