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April 2019 April 2019 Signs of Improvement in April

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April 2019 April 2019 Signs of Improvement in April April 2019 April 2019 Signs of improvement in April Alberta sales activity in April improved by nearly three per cent compared to last April but remained well below typical levels of activity. Nonetheless, this is the first time since July of 2018 that province wide monthly sales improved compared to the previous year. The monthly sales gain was not high enough to offset the slowing trend in the first quarter and year-to-date sales eased by nearly six per cent and are 17 per cent below long-term averages. The year-to-date declines were driven by reductions in Calgary, Edmonton, Grande Prairie, Central Alberta and Medicine Hat. In April, new listings continue to ease compared to the previous year. The combined impact of improved sales and easing new listings was not enough to prevent year-over-year inventory gains this month. However, the growth rate of inventories has been slowing, which if this trend continues could help the market move towards more balanced conditions and eventually support more price stability. With over six months of supply in the entire province, prices continue to trend down. The province wide average price was $381,452, nearly two per cent lower than last year’s levels. April demonstrated some early signs of improvements in housing market conditions. However, it will take some time for the overall market to return to more normal conditions as our larger cities continue to struggle with oversupply and easing prices. Alberta Months of Supply and Price Changes 14 50% 12 40% 10 30% 8 20% 6 10% 4 0% 2 -10% 0 -20% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Y/Y Price Change Source: CREA AREA Monthly Statistics 2 APR- 2019 Alberta Summary Apr-18 Apr-19 % Change YTD 2018 YTD 2019 % Change Total Sales 5,039 5,169 2.58% 15,988 15,074 -5.72% Total Sales Volume $1,953,257,177 $1,971,722,904 0.95% $6,215,766,416 $5,670,530,146 -8.77% New Listings 12,181 11,729 -3.71% 40,500 38,412 -5.16% Inventory 33,101 33,878 2.35% 28,456 29,812 4.77% Months of Supply 6.57 6.55 -0.23% 7.12 7.91 11.12% Sales-to-new Listings Ratio 41.37% 44.07% 6.53% 39.48% 39.24% -0.59% Average Price $387,628 $381,452 -1.59% $388,777 $376,180 -3.24% Alberta average price and price change 50% 450,000 400,000 40% 350,000 30% 300,000 20% 250,000 10% 200,000 150,000 0% 100,000 -10% 50,000 -20% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Source: CREA Alberta sales and inventory 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Inventory Sales Trended sales Trended Inventory Source: CREA AREA Monthly Statistics 3 APR- 2019 Alberta total residential sales 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Apr. '09 Apr. '10 Apr. '11 Apr. '12 Apr. '13 Apr. '14 Apr. '15 Apr. '16 Apr. '17 Apr. '18 Apr. '19 Calgary Region Edmonton Region Central Alberta Wood Buffalo Grand prairie Lethbridge Medicine Hat Lloydminster South Central Alberta Alberta West 10-year average Source: CREA Alberta total residential inventory 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Apr. '09 Apr. '10 Apr. '11 Apr. '12 Apr. '13 Apr. '14 Apr. '15 Apr. '16 Apr. '17 Apr. '18 Apr. '19 Calgary Region Edmonton Region Central Alberta Wood Buffalo Grand prairie Lethbridge Medicine Hat Lloydminster South Central Alberta Alberta West 10-year average Source: CREA AREA Monthly Statistics 4 New Months of Average Sales to new Share of sales APR- 2019 Sales Y/Y % Listings Y/Y % Inventory Supply Y/Y% price Y/Y% listings ratio activity Alberta West 124 10.71% 335 15.12% 1,388 11.19 4.91% 364,138 -0.26% 37.01% 2.40% Calgary Region 1,958 3.32% 4,041 -12.29% 9,819 5.01 -5.43% 443,607 -4.02% 48.45% 37.88% Central Alberta 360 -6.25% 1,071 2.68% 3,945 10.96 6.13% 294,071 0.60% 33.61% 6.96% Edmonton Region 1,869 3.55% 4,174 -1.04% 11,044 5.91 -3.98% 369,402 -1.73% 44.78% 36.16% Fort McMurray 129 11.21% 296 18.88% 1,036 8.03 -3.76% 389,384 -0.75% 43.58% 2.50% Grande Prairie 225 -7.02% 552 24.04% 1,842 8.19 31.20% 325,175 8.24% 40.76% 4.35% Lethbridge 238 1.71% 450 8.70% 1,787 7.51 31.02% 280,929 6.67% 52.89% 4.60% Lloydminster 81 3.85% 269 30.58% 1,176 14.52 4.86% 262,498 -3.99% 30.11% 1.57% Medicine Hat 100 -10.71% 241 29.57% 742 7.42 57.10% 287,815 6.82% 41.49% 1.93% South Cetral Alberta 28 16.67% 118 13.46% 490 17.50 -15.49% 162,693 -10.26% 23.73% 0.54% Alberta 5,169 2.58% 11,729 -3.71% 33,878 6.55 -0.23% 381,452 -1.59% 44.07% Average Price Growth Comparison April 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Apr‐18 Apr‐19 Average Price Comparison April Months of Supply Comparison April 500,000 25 450,000 Apr‐18 Apr‐19 Apr‐18 Apr‐19 400,000 20 350,000 300,000 15 250,000 200,000 10 150,000 100,000 5 50,000 0 0 AREA Monthly Statistics 5 APR- 2019 Alberta West Year-to-date sales activity generally improved in the region. However, like many other centres, new listings continue to rise pushing up inventory levels and months of supply. While months of supply have edged up, they generally remain below historical highs. Prices in the region tend to fluctuate significantly from month-to-month. However, prices have generally remained relatively stable so far this year. Alberta West Apr-18 Apr-19 % Change YTD 2018 YTD 2019 % Change Total Sales 112 124 10.71% 351 377 7.41% Total Sales Volume $40,890,433 $45,153,065 10.42% $118,692,761 $132,678,526 11.78% New Listings 291 335 15.12% 839 905 7.87% Inventory 1,195 1,388 16.15% 1,083 1,222 12.88% Months of Supply 10.67 11.19 4.91% 12.34 12.97 5.10% Sales-to-new Listings Ratio 38.49% 37.01% -3.83% 41.84% 41.66% -0.43% Average Price $365,093 $364,138 -0.26% $338,156 $351,932 4.07% Average price and price change 100% 400,000 80% 350,000 300,000 60% 250,000 40% 200,000 20% 150,000 0% 100,000 -20% 50,000 -40% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Source: CREA Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio 25 100% 90% 20 80% 70% 15 60% 50% 10 40% 30% 5 20% 10% 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL Source: CREA AREA Monthly Statistics 6 APR- 2019 Alberta West Sales April YTD‐April 180 600 160 500 140 120 400 100 300 80 60 200 40 100 20 0 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alberta West 10-year average Alberta West 10-year average Source: CREA Source: CREA Alberta West New Listings April YTD‐April 400 1,050 350 1,000 300 950 250 200 900 150 850 100 50 800 0 750 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alberta West 10-year average Source: CREA Alberta West 10-year average Source: CREA Alberta West Inventory April YTD‐April 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alberta West 10-year average Source: CREA Alberta West 10-year average Source: CREA AREA Monthly Statistics 7 APR- 2019 Calgary Region Improving sales combined with easing new listings caused April inventories to ease compared to last year’s levels. While the decline was not large enough to push the market into balanced conditions and inventories remain elevated based on historical averages, it is the first time that the growth in monthly inventories has declined since 2017. The months of inventory eased to five months in the region. This is an improvement over the previous year but remains well above typical levels for April. The persistent oversupply continues to cause downward pressure on prices. Calgary Region Apr-18 Apr-19 % Change YTD 2018 YTD 2019 % Change Total Sales 1,895 1,958 3.32% 6,286 5,927 -5.71% Total Sales Volume $875,820,687 $868,582,446 -0.83% $2,916,094,318 $2,628,698,534 -9.86% New Listings 4,607 4,041 -12.29% 15,242 14,029 -7.96% Inventory 10,049 9,819 -2.29% 8,432 8,729 3.53% Months of Supply 5.30 5.01 -5.43% 5.37 5.89 9.80% Sales-to-new Listings Ratio 41.13% 48.45% 17.80% 41.24% 42.25% 2.44% Average Price $462,175 $443,607 -4.02% $463,903 $443,512 -4.40% Average price and price change 100% 600,000 80% 500,000 60% 400,000 40% 300,000 20% 200,000 0% 100,000 -20% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Source: CREA Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio 12 100% 90% 10 80% 70% 8 60% 6 50% 40% 4 30% 20% 2 10% 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL Source: CREA AREA Monthly Statistics 8 APR- 2019 Calgary Region Sales April YTD‐April 4,000 12,000 3,500 10,000 3,000 8,000 2,500 2,000 6,000 1,500 4,000 1,000 2,000 500 0 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Calgary Region 10-year average Calgary Region 10-year average Source: CREA Source: CREA Calgary Region New Listings April YTD‐April 6,000 20,000 18,000 5,000 16,000 4,000 14,000 12,000 3,000 10,000 8,000 2,000 6,000 1,000 4,000 2,000 0 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Calgary Region 10-year average Source: CREA Calgary Region 10-year average Source: CREA Calgary Region Inventory April YTD‐April 12,000 10,000 9,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Calgary Region 10-year average Source: CREA Calgary Region 10-year average Source: CREA AREA Monthly Statistics 9 APR- 2019 Central Alberta Sales activity continued to ease in the region in April resulting in year-to-date sales of 1,004 units, 12 per cent lower than last year’s levels.
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