Open Skies: a Cooperative Approach to Military Transparency
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i UNIDIR/2004/18 Open Skies A Cooperative Approach to Military Transparency and Confidence Building Pál Dunay, Márton Krasznai, Hartwig Spitzer, Rafael Wiemker and William Wynne UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Geneva, Switzerland NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. * * * The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Secretariat. UNIDIR/2004/18 Copyright © United Nations, 2004 All rights reserved UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. GV.E.04.0.18 ISBN 92-9045-164-5 The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)—an intergovernmental organization within the United Nations—conducts research on disarmament and security. UNIDIR is based in Geneva, Switzerland, the centre for bilateral and multilateral disarmament and non- proliferation negotiations, and home of the Conference on Disarmament. The Institute explores current issues pertaining to the variety of existing and future armaments, as well as global diplomacy and local entrenched tensions and conflicts. Working with researchers, diplomats, Government officials, NGOs and other institutions since 1980, UNIDIR acts as a bridge between the research community and Governments. UNIDIR’s activities are funded by contributions from Governments and donors foundations. The Institute’s web site can be found at URL: http://www.unidir.org Cover page: designed by Diego Oyarzún-Reyes (UNCTAD) iv CONTENTS Page Preface. xi Executive Summary . xiii About the Authors . xix Acronyms. xxi Introduction . 1 Chapter 1 Arms Control in the Post-Cold War World Pál Dunay. 5 1.1 The Legacy of the Past . 5 1.2 Prospects for the Future . 9 1.3 Open Skies as a Bridge in the Structure of Arms Control . 13 Chapter 2 The Open Skies Negotiations and the Open Skies Treaty Pál Dunay and Hartwig Spitzer . 17 2.1 Early History (1955-1989). 17 2.2 The Ottawa, Budapest and Vienna Rounds of Negotiations in the Light of Circumstances. 24 2.3 Negotiation of the Treaty Substance and Analysis of the Results . 34 Chapter 3 The Open Skies Treaty Post-Signature Pál Dunay and Hartwig Spitzer . 61 3.1 The Ratification Process . 61 3.2 Establishment and Activity of the OSCC: Decisions and Guidance Documents to the Treaty. 65 v vi Chapter 4 Technical Preparations for Treaty Implementation Hartwig Spitzer and Rafael Wiemker. 69 4.1 Establishment of Operational Units . 69 4.2 Aircraft . 70 4.3 Sensors. 73 4.4 The Ground Resolution Limits and Their Verification . 74 4.5 Trial Flights and Lessons . 81 4.6 Trial Certifications of Open Skies Aircraft . 87 Chapter 5 Post-Ratification Phase and Entry into Force Márton Krasznai . 95 5.1 Post-Ratification Events. 95 5.2 Entry into Force of the Treaty, 1 January 2002 . 96 5.3 Certification of Aircraft . 96 5.4 Decisions on Rules and Procedures. 99 5.5 Taxi Option . 100 5.6 Accession of Additional States Parties . 100 Chapter 6 Image Analysis and Data Assessment: What Can Be Learnt from Open Skies Image Data? Hartwig Spitzer and Rafael Wiemker. 103 6.1 Imaging Targets and Assessment Potential. 103 6.2 Potential of Different Sensors . 107 6.3 The Digital Revolution: Computer-Aided Image Analysis. 114 Chapter 7 Prospects for Extensions of the Multilateral Open Skies Treaty Hartwig Spitzer . 127 7.1 Inclusion of Additional States Parties. 127 7.2 Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management . 128 7.3 Potential of the Open Skies Regime and Sensor Suite for Environmental Monitoring and Other Non-Military Applications. 130 vii 7.4 Additional Sensors and Higher Resolution. 139 7.5 Data Access for Non-Military Organizations . 141 7.6 Issues and Challenges for the Review Conference of States Parties 2005 . 142 7.7 Summary . 147 Chapter 8 Regional Applications of the Open Skies Approach Márton Krasznai, Hartwig Spitzer and William Wynne . 149 8.1 Detour: The Hungarian-Romanian Bilateral Agreement on Open Skies. 149 8.2 Regional Application: The Bosnia Experiment and the Bosnia Experience . 156 8.3 Regional Open Skies Agreement in the Balkans: A Missed Opportunity . 165 8.4 Open Skies Outside of Europe: Precedents and Prospects . 166 Chapter 9 The Improvement of Satellite Capabilities and its Implications for the Open Skies Regime Hartwig Spitzer . 183 9.1 The Advent of Commercial 1-metre Satellites . 183 9.2 Comparing Apples and Oranges . 189 9.3 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles . 191 Chapter 10 Outlook: Nothing to Hide? Perspectives for the Open Skies Treaty Pál Dunay. 197 Appendix A Addresses of Open Skies Units . 201 Appendix B Open Skies Aircraft . 205 Appendix C Sensor Properties. 215 Appendix D Open Skies Test Missions and Quota Flights (as of December 2002). 223 viii Appendix E Verifying the Ground Resolution Limit (Photo & Video) . 235 Appendix F Brief Glossary of Open Skies Treaty Terms . 251 Appendix G Open Skies Basic Elements . 259 Appendix H The Hungarian-Romanian Open Skies Agreement . 265 Appendix I Treaty on Open Skies—Preamble and Contents . 291 Appendix J Decisions of the Open Skies Consultative Commission (Titles only). 295 Appendix K Sensor Guidance Document—Table of Contents . 301 Selected Bibliography. 309 Recent UNIDIR Publications . 313 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Open Skies observation flight line . 50 Figure 4.1 Photogrammetric and Treaty definition of resolution . 75 Figure 4.2 German calibration target . 79 Figure 4.3 Densiometric strip and D log E curve. 80 Figure 4.4 Open Skies test flights (31 December 2001) . 82 Figure 4.5 Flight route of a German-Russian test flight over Siberia . 85 Figure 6.1 Image fusion (examples) . 119 Figure C.1 SAROS specifications and mission geometry . 220 Figure E.1 Resolution of bar groups for various ground sample distances (pixel sizes) . 236 Figure E.2 The calibration target. 240 Figure E.3 Model of the calibration target profile . 242 Figure E.4 Point spread functions (PSF) and modulation transfer function (MTF) . 243 LIST OF PHOTOS Photo 4.1 Detail of a military vehicle depot at Tiraspol, Moldova. 76 Photo 4.2 Display of Open Skies aircraft during the test certification in Fürstenfeldbruck, August 2001 . 91 Photo 4.3 Sensor operators, international experts and observers on board of the Ukrainian Open Skies aircraft . 91 Photo 6.1 Open Skies image of a military airfield. 108 Photo 6.2 Thermal infrared line scanner image of an airport taken at night . 111 Photo 6.3 SAR image of the military airport at Fürstenfeldbruck, Bavaria, Germany. 113 Photo 6.4 Image registration (example) . 117 Photo 7.1 Oder flooding near Wiesenau (Germany) . 133 Photo B.1 Boeing OC-135B. 205 Photo B.2 Tupolev 154 M . 207 Photo B.3 Antonov 26 . 208 Photo B.4 Andover twin turboprop . 208 Photo B.5 Lockheed C-130 . 210 Photo B.6 An-30 . 211 Photo B.7 CASA CN-235-M. 213 Photo B.8 SAAB 340 . 214 Photo C.1 Panoramic camera mounted in the UK Open Skies aircraft . 215 Photo C.2 Camera control electronics in the Ukrainian Open Skies aircraft. 218 Photo E.1 Example of subpixel resolution . 238 Photo E.2 Example of imagery from a multispectral line scanner . 245 Photo E.3 An example of inverse filtering, Wiener filtering and simulated blur . 246 ix x LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Flight Quotas and Maximum Distances . 45 Table 2.2 Initial Distribution of Active Quotas . 48 Table 3.1 Status of Open Skies Treaty Ratification as of 1 April 2004. 63 Table 4.1 Open Skies Aircraft . 72 Table 4.2 Open Skies Sensors as of May 2004 . 74 Table 4.3 Open Skies Flights Involving Non-Signatory States as of 31 December 2001 . 83 Table 6.1 Ground Resolution (Photogrammetric Definition) Required for Target Detection, Identification, Description and Analysis . 105 Table 7.1 Estimated Potential of Current Open Skies Sensors . 131 Table 9.1 Performance Parameters of Commercial 1-Metre Optical Satellites . 185 Table 9.2 Future Commercial High-Resolution Optical Satellites . 186 Table 9.3 High-Resolution Commercial and Dual Use Radar Satellites . 187 Table 9.4 High-Resolution Military Optical Satellites in Europe and Asia . 188 Table 9.5 Resolution (GSD) of Imaging Sensors . 190 Table C.1 Sensor Specifications of Open Skies Aircraft. 216 Table C.2 Sensor Parameters of the German AA/AAD-5 Thermal Infrared Line Scanner . 219 Table C.3 SAROS Operating Modes . ..