Limits to rural land use - Conference Amsterdam 1989 Limits to rural land use
Proceedingso fa ninternationa l conference organized byth e 'Commission on Changing Rural Systems' of the International Geographical Union (IGU), Amsterdam, Netherlands, 21-2 5 August 1989
G.M.R.A.va nOort , LM.va nde n Berg,J.G .Groenendij k and A.H.H.M. Kempers (Editors)
Pudoc Wageningen 199
,J\ \ »r^c\-- w* CIP-data Koninklijke Bibliotheek, Den Haag
Limits
Limits to rural land use / G.M.R.A. van Oort... [et al.] (eds). - Wageningen : Pudoc. - III. Proceedings of aninternationa l conference organized byth e 'Commission onChangin g RuralSystems ' of the International Geographical Union (IGU), Amsterdam, Netherlands, 21-2 5 August 1989. - Met index, lit. opg. ISBN 90-220-1030-9 NUGI67I Trefw.: landinrichting / plattelandsgeografie.
ISBN 90-220-1030-9 NUGI67I / 835
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Printed in the Netherlands. PREFACE
The present volume presents the Proceedings of the international conference "Limits to Rural Land Use", which was held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands from August 21 to 25, 1989. This conference was organized by the Commission on Changing Rural Systems, a commission of the International Geographical Union. There were 70 participants from 15 countries and 44 papers were presented during the five days of the conference. The central theme of the meetings was chosen to reflect the pace of change in the countryside and the range of limiting factors encountered in these seemingly quiet but actually very dynamic areas. The programme focussed on four themes: Development and Rural Population, Multiple Use of Land, Ecological Consequences of Rural Dynamics, Development and Rural Information Systems. Behind these themes lay the issues central to geographical change. Who initiates a process of change in a rural community? How does the influence of structural forces compare to the power of the individual? Can change be guided to meet public objectives; that is, what are the possibilities for planning? What information is needed by individuals and organizations in order to cope with change? The proceedings do not include all the papers presented at the conference, due to constraints of space and focus. Yet the papers that were selected for publication here certainly benefitted from having been part of a larger body of scientific exchange. In that sense, these Proceedings reflect the conference as a forum and the contributions of all the participants. All the presentations were well received by the participants, as we noticed, and provided an inspiring basis for the extensive discussions which took place during the conference. We would like to thank all the authors for their commitment in this joint publication of the IGU Commission on Changing Rural Systems. As this volume had to be limited to about 200 pages it was impossible to include all papers. In order to make a reasonably objective selection the papers were divided into the following three categories: loosely related subjects, e.g. the GIS-papers, which did not cover the subject we defined for the Proceedings; papers to be presented elsewhere or papers from authors who did not react to our letter sent to them in December last year; and papers fitting in the overall structure of the Proceedings. Even after our decision to include papers of the third category only, the number of qualifying papers remained too large. An agreement was therefore reached with the editor of the Indian Journal "Rural Systems" to have all papers covering the Third World countries published there. The choice of the papers selected for these Proceeding made it necessary to rearrange the themes and to distinguish three sections, to wit: - sustainable development and rural communities; - suburban growth and agricultural withdrawal; - farming between ecological and market constraints. In the Introduction a brief description of the contributions is given. The selected contributions should be regarded as elaborations of the four central themes; together, these comprise the wide-ranging topic expressed succinctly in the title of the Proceedings: Limits to Rural Land Use. These Proceedings cannot be regarded as a complete overview of the work being done in this field, but it does give an impression of the scope of current theoretical and empirical activity on the main themes. The individual authors remain responsible for the contents of their contributions; the input of the editors was confined to reviewing the texts, integrating the different subjects by proposing consistent terminology, and determining the layout. While editing the papers for the Proceedings, it became clear that one single list of references was preferable to a separate list for each paper. The references thereby gain value as the comprehensive list offers an overview of recent literature on the topics dealt with in the three sections. We hope that the contributors to this volume will be satisfied with the result. We also hope that the readers will glean ideas from it that further their research in this broad field. By including a list of addresses of all contributors and conference participants, we hope to the conference couldstimulate further interaction.
We are grateful for the assistance, financial or otherwise, which made it possible to organize the conference in 1989 and publish the Proceedings. The following institutions contributed to this: the Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences (KNAW), Amsterdam; the Institute of Geographical Research (IRO), Utrecht; the Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Utrecht; The Winand Staring Centre for Integrated Land, Soil and Water Research, Wageningen; the Rabobank Nederland, Utrecht; the Information and Documentation Centre for the Geography of the Netherlands (IDG), Utrecht; the Cartographic Institute (CITO-Plan B.V.), The Hague; the Royal Dutch Geographical Society (KNAG), Amsterdam. We would also like to thank Jeanine Verhaagen, who designed the logo for this conference.
The editors
vi CONTENTS
Preface
Introduction Guy van Oort,Leo van denBerg, Jan Groenendijk, AnnieKempers
Section 1: Sustainable development and rural communities
Rural community, land use dynamics and sustainable development 9 Christopher R. Bryant
Multiple-goal assessment for land resource development: the case of British Columbia 16 YongyuanYin andJohn T.Pierce
The careers of farm managers in England and Wales 24 Gordon Clark,J. H.Johnson andA. McAuley
The Israeli family farm: changing structures and problems of adjustment 32 David Grossman
Changes in rural areas in the Netherlands 38 Paulus P.P. Huigen & CM.Volkers
The accessibility of a region; can information technologies be of help in development 49 HeikkiJussila
Spatial distribution of telematics in Hungary 57 Tibor Tiner & CeesR. Volkers
Possible land-use changes at the regional level, three contrasting scenario's for the province of Friesland 63 Jan D. Markusse Section 2: Suburban growth and agricultural withdrawal
Direct marketing as agricultural adaptation in Megalopolitan Connecticut 79 TimothyJ. Rickard
A land use problem in the Glasgow Green Belt 89 GarethE. Jones
Response of farmers to the loss of land caused by urban pressure 96 Peter Lucas and Guy van Oort
Changes in types of settlement in Belgrade fringe 105 Vladimir Macura
Local planning and the role of rural land in metropolitan regions: the example of the Toronto area 113 Michael F.Bunce
Conversion of farmsteads; hidden urbanization or a changing rural system? 123 J.H.P. van der Vaart
Quasi-agricultural land: hidden urbanization, hobby farming or what else? 130 Leo M. van denBerg
Section 3: Farming between ecological and market constraints
Ecological assessment of modern agriculture 141 Michael J. Troughton
Deciding and implementing limits to agricultural land use; an interorganisational perspective on the solution to environmental problems in the Netherlands 156 Jan G. Groenendijk
Assessment of the environmental impact caused by agriculture 163 SaverioLorenzetti
Some possible trends of changes in the present land use pattern of East Serbia 170 NatashaMilanovich
Traditional orchards in the Domleschg: hope for an "obsolete" land use? 176 Justin Winkler Into the nineties - the management of land for nature conservation in the rural environment 181 HaydnWilliams
References 193
Abstracts of the other papers 203
List of participants 211
Index 215 INTRODUCTION
Guy van Oort, Leo van den Berg, Jan Groenendijk and Annie Kempers
After decadeso funprecedente d andtechnologica ldevelopment ,rura l areas arefeelin g the pressure of interests that seek to place restrictions on land use. At this conference, the limitations posed by environmental factors were given attention. In view of the subjects brought up by the participants, it is clear that rural geographers do not limit this theme to the physical effects of alternative forms of land use. A broad spectrum of impact assessment studies have been taking place, ranging from change of behaviour to the effects of changes in the socio-economic or the physical environment on individuals and organizations.Th echang e ofrura l systems,studie dfro m thisperspective ,span s thelevel s of individual farmers, institutions, and markets in which the farmer is operating. This conference identified the essential link between the demands that came to the forefront in the "Second Environmental Wave" (no further pollution and degradation of soil,wate r and air) and the demands of a viablerura l economy (income,foo d production and conditions for a regional service economy). This link is the rural community, whose very existence is often at stake. In all four themes of the conference (reformulated as three thematic Sections in this volume) the evolution of patterns of land use development is connected to the development ofth erura lcommunity . Section 1 discussesth econdition s under whichrura l land use and the viability of a rural community can be sustained. A central position is envisaged for local initiative, but there is no doubt that "changing rural systems" (including our changing awareness of environmental constraints) will force rural communities to adjust to completely new conditions. The papers in Section 2 show ways in which people adapt their use of land and buildings whenpu t underpressur e toterminat e commercial farming. The examples show that local communities are both willing and able to maintain the agricultural appearance of their land and buildings even when they are no longer able to make a living from agricultural activities. Section 3 shows what modernization of agriculture has brought about, not only in the physical environment but also with respect to the position of the producers. Conflict of interest and unequal power base are situations that compromise decision-making and implementation of environmental measures. To have any chance of being implemented, these measures need a firm basis in the rural community.
Section 1: Sustainable development and rural communities.
According to Bryant, therei s noinheren t conflict of interest between thecommunit y and the environment. On the contrary, the local community should play a central role in the sustainable development of rural regions, in this sense, "sustainable" means that the community will be able to participate in the future of the region. To that end, development hast ofollo w anecologicall y soundcourse ,attune d toth eparticula rphysica l characteristics of the region, while at the same time ensuring an economic base for the local community. In setting goals, there must be involvement in order to promote local adherence to regulations. This is not a technical issue to be decided by experts; it concerns values, aims and consensus-building. Bryant's emphasis on local influence and diversity is,o f course, completely at odds with current scales of activity by corporations and agencies, both private and public. Amongst researchers from other disciplines, rural geographers will investigate the conditions that permit such a breach with the existing institutional environment. Youngyan and Pierce develop a methodology for the determination of goals. They try to resolve several problems currently faced by ministries: single-sector biases, the dominance of resource ministries overothers ,an d theinabilit y to define long-term goals. A survey of the land resource base is used for scenarios that assess the implications of alternative forms of land use. In the identification of goals, attention is given to social aims as well as to environmental and economic ones. In this way, their assessment scheme provides a device which meets Bryant's call for the incorporation of a viable community in the design for "sustainable development". This comprehensive analysis, with its great range of goals and priorities, may provide important feed-back to decision-makers regarding the consequences of their action. However, when applied to a rural environment, with the current range of farm sizes,i t does notresolv e the issue of implementation at the level of the individual farm, where strategies for land-use change will materialize - or not. At this level, the conditions are determined to a large extent by agribusiness. Clark, Johnson and McAuley draw attention to yet another way in which capital has come topenetrat e more directly into farming. The hiring of farm managers puts tracts of land directly in the goal attainment scheme of large corporations. This will not enhance accommodation to the local resource base. In this respect, it is important to differentiate according to style of farming. Recently Van der Ploeg et al. (1990) demonstrated that a division between modernizing farms and farms that tend to withdraw does not dojustic e to the range of farms in between; many farmers who do stay cultivate in an ecologically responsible way. On the other hand, Grossman draws attention to the problems of small-scalemoshav farms. There, however, the scale is dictated by cultural norms of the nation that are no longer appropriate to the day-to-day decisions that individual farmers have to make. The sustainability of arura l community depends of changes in society atlarge .Huige n and Volkers demonstrate that enlargement of scale by concentration and de-mixing of functions affects the spatial organization of activities in rural regions in a way that is detrimental to rural communities.Paradoxically , this evidence is given for the peripheral North of the small-scale country of the Netherlands, where down-turn processes prevail over weak counter-urbanization processes, contrary to the trend in the UK. The importance of external relations for peripheral rural regions is portrayed in Jussila's paper. He sees local know-how as an important condition to allow telematics to overcome the accessibility problem. But Tiner and Volkers show that concentration processes have as great an impact on the distribution of these facilities just as on any others. Nor are only market forces responsible for concentrated development, as Tiner's evidence from centrally planned Hungary demonstrates. Now that public funding to compensate for unequal development will be stopped in the Netherlands, rural regions will have to determine their priorities for themselves. Even so,Markusse , making useo f the scenario method, has to account for external influence in the choices that are open to the Dutch province of Friesland. Section 2: Suburban growth and agricultural withdrawal
The agricultural sector is under pressure, not only in the periphery, but also in central regions. When, for whateverreasons , commercial farming withdraws from an area, other functions take over. To argue that these "overtaking functions" are the cause of withdrawal would be a misleading simplification. The papers presented under the theme "suburban growth and agricultural withdrawal" show how decisions on the new uses of land and buildings can differ from the various reasons for withdrawal from full-scale farming. One way of adjusting a farm's operation to the loss of land or other pressures from the city is to adopt the strategy of direct marketing of produce to nearby residents. This phenomenon was studied by Rickard in Metropolitan Hartford in Connecticut. He distinguishes three types of people involved in this business: the largest category (40%) areex-urbanite s andhobb yfarmers ,peopl ewh ower eno tfarmer s before butha d acquired the land - to live in spacious surroundings or for other reasons - and want to put it to some kind of productive use. The second-largest category (35%) consists of full-time fanners who use it as an extra source of income,irrespectiv e of whether they had togiv e up someo f theirlan dfo r urban growth.Th e third category (25%)consist so f former dairy farmers who were forced to switch to some form of horticulture, as their holdings had become too small for full-time dairy farming. Jones discusses thekind s of conflict that may occur in aGree n Belt area.Hi s example comes from Glasgow, where new technology makes coal extraction profitable again; in this area, relics of previous mining along with some shallow natural lakes constitute the main assets in an otherwise unattractive farming landscape. Although the environmental impact assessment was positive, the conclusion of a public enquiry was to reject the request for planning permission to start an open-cast mine. The author expresses his concern that emotions and rumors seem to prevail over hard facts. He proposes a more dynamic approach to nature conservation and landscape planning. The paper concludes that "imaginative and ecologically sound rehabilitation schemes should form an integral part of local and national conservation policy". Lucas and Van Oort show how the withdrawal of farmers from areas needed for the growth of the Dutch city of Utrecht is rarely complete. These farmers tend to continue their operation, often on a much smaller scale,o n the remainder of the land. They search for alternative farm lots in the vicinity to replace the land they had to sell. Even if they end up with very little land, they like to retain and live in the old farm buildings. Many are elderly persons and operate as hobby farmers while deriving most of their income from a pension and savings. They are the kind of people on whom much of the maintenanceo f arura l atmosphere in "green belts"aroun dcitie s depends.Thi s makeson e wonder what will happen when they die and the next generation has to decide what to do with the property. Macura looks at changes in land use and population between 1961 and 1981 for administrative unitsaroun dBelgrade ,Yugoslavia , andcome st osimila rconclusions .Firs t the employment status of the village population changed from rural to urban; only much later did the percentage of land taken up by urban and urban-related functions start to increase.Fo r themos t part, theseprocesse s were slow,creatin g alarg e numbero f "mixed (rural-urban) settlements" in Belgrade's fringe. These are characterized by what he calls "animbalanc e between thepopulation' s employment andform s oflan duse .Preciou slan d is under-utilized for food production" in the process. This brings one to the ever-recurring question whether rural land in the urban fringe is primarily an urban reserve or an agricultural asset. In his paper about local planning in themetropolita n belto fToronto ,Bunc ecome st oth econclusio n that such dichotomous thinking is based on a "deeply entrenched agrarian myth". Rural land in today's North American metropolitan regions is in fact "owned by developers, farmed by a thoroughly urbanized agriculturalcommunity ,sough tafte r byex-urbanite sfo rthei rcountr ypropertie s and "above all, regarded by local planning itself as a tool for maximizing development flexibility". In other words, land can maintain an agricultural appearance while its main function has little to do with agriculture. This discrepancy between form and function is very obvious when it comes to the conversion of disused farm buildings into residential or commercial buildings. Van der Vaart has studied the magnitude and outcome of this process in Friesland, a relatively "remote"par t of the Netherlands.T o aconsiderabl e extent these conversions are brought about by local people rather than by urban or other non-local initiatives. The author concludes that, for the continuity of rural communities in remote areas, the demolition of disused farm buildings should be discouraged, while planning permission and other support for their conversion should begrante d lessreluctantly . Buta tth e same time these developments should not be allowed to lead to small residential or industrial estates where they don't fit in the landscape. The same discrepancy between form and function also features in Van den Berg's contribution about "quasi-agricultural" land. Even in a country known for its widespread intensive farming and highly regulated land use patterns, about 10% of the seemingly agricultural land is not used by registered (full-time or part-time, commercial) farmers. Detailed field investigations in 20 out of the 700 Dutch municipalities revealed that it mainly concerns lots of less than one ha. Most of these contain a building, usually a former farm that may or may not have been converted or rebuilt completely. In most cases the land is used for grazing -jus t a few sheep,calves , horses, deer or more exotic animals for a hobby. Such ex-urban residences and hobby farms are still very much discouraged by agricultural and physical planning policy in the Netherlands. Yet, as it occurs sowidely , the author concludes that relaxation of therelevan t regulations is likely to increase the extent of hobby farming. In fact, this could make a cheaper contribution to the reduction of agricultural surplus in this part of the world than the "set-aside" arrangements that are presently implemented.
Section 3 : Farming between ecological and market constraints.
Changes in agriculture have been brought about largely by external pressures. Increasingly, farmers become part of production systems that stretch far beyond their farm. A new source of pressure is external as well, though originating from a different direction. Environmental demands, being completely at odds with modern agriculture, jeopardize the delicate balance of the farm economy. Small wonder that the implementation of environmental regulations meets with»oppositio n from agricultural communities. What has to be changed in agricultural systems to bring them in line with ecological/long term sustainability? Throughton stresses the trend away from local environmental accommodation, which is brought about by technical improvements of agriculture over the last two decades. He criticizes geography for the predominantly economic treatment of agriculture; instead, it should be approached from the resource point of view. For models that incorporate the inherent contradictions between local resource base/ecosystem and world-market forces Troughton turnst opolitica l ecologyan denvironmenta l sociology.Ecosyste m and society havebee nrelated unti lno wb yeconomi c synthesis;curren tenvironmenta l regulation goes no further than a planned scarcity synthesis. Troughton, however, articulates a need for radical change towards an ecological synthesis, in which production for profit is abandoned infavou r ofproductio n for usean dpermanence .Organi cfarmin g providesth e criteria for ecological assessment which depicts the damage caused by the industrialization of agriculture, disregarding local physical variation, erosion, organic waste, etc. As the conference participants saw during the excursion to a project for organic agriculture, situated in the modern context of the IJsselmeerpolders, this is a promising sector. Yet, the general adoption of alternative agricultural techniques by farmers is constrained by ties to agribusiness. Troughton advocates the adoption of a political ecology stance for research in which all aspectso f themoder n agricultural system arequestioned , withth e individual farm unit in a central position. Personal acceptance by farmers of ecological farming techniques is only feasible when they have reasonable economic security and can count on the strict implementation and surveillance of environmental regulations.I n the Netherlands, where the modernization of the agricultural system is perhaps more pervasive than anywhere else, the acceptance of environmental regulations has been slight. AsGroenendij k shows, the "agricultural policy community" from its firm position in the administrative network has been able to keep important measures from the political agenda and if not, from implementation. This "policy community" derives its strength from its corporatist structure. Leaders of farmers' organizations figure prominently as advocates'of agrarian interests.The y deal directly with their allies in the "policy community" whopopulat e the Ministry of Agriculture and its agencies; the interests of agribusiness need not come to the fore directly in this system. One wayt oprovid eenvironmenta l interest with astronge rpositio n in decision-making might be to introduce a thorough and respected method of environmental impact assessment. Lorenzetti suggests an economic approach to the latter. Indeed, from a political economy stance, it is essential to deal with the interests of actors to guarantee successful implementation of themeasures .I nthi sway ,environmenta l impact assessment may be compared with cost-benefit analysis. There is still a need to identify environmental indicators andt odefin e therelation s between these and the qualities of the environment. To strengthen its political weight, environmental impact assessment should be based on criteria that are less subjective. Thepositiv e impact of many activities undertaken byfarmer s is emphasized in several papers.Milanovi c shows thatrestriction s onrigh t of ownership titleinduc edisus eo f land and a concomitant degradation of the landscape. Winkler describes the disappearance of the fruit orchards. Cultivators are no longer interested in such high-risk, delayed return investment, to the detriment of the landscape. Williams stresses the importance of management of the countryside by local people. In thecas e of the hillfarmin g inWales ,th efarmers ' income will be underpressur e when lowland farms will takeove r meatproduction . In the upland, there is no alternative toth e traditional livestock system. In this situation, Williams advocates income support by collaboration with environmental management asa goo d alternative toth ecurren t support system related to herd size, which induces overgrazing. On one occasion, management agreements involving local farmers turned conflict over land-use into cooperation. Williams makes it clear that this brings a new dependency on urban resources. A new product, nature conservation, is brought toth e market andha st o meet standards specified by the public. Seen from the other side, society is dependent on rural communities for the maintenance of nature and landscape. This brings us back to the viability of rural communities, as discussed in Section 1.
The subject matter of this conference is once more proof of the commitment of this IGU commission to addressing urgent questions regarding the future for rural regions.I n particular, the conflicting claims on agricultural systems, on the one hand making it dependent on forces of the worldeconomy , ando n theothe r handpressin g for ecological accountability, seem to put the squeeze on rural communities. The 1988 Auckland meeting (Journal of Rural Studies, vol 5 no 4, 1989) has already drawn the attention to sustainable development in the analysis of rural systems (Smit and Brklacich 1989). In proposing a research agenda, Bowler (1989) advises environmental regulation as economic intervention (rural subsidy in several guises) decreases. This issue will not beresolve d soon.Th e opening session in Ljubljana (1990) took up the discussion on the survival of agro-ecosystems and the compatibility of rural socio economic development with conservation of the environment. Troughton's observation that control of the system lies outside not only the agricultural production level but also therura l areas as awhol emake sou rcommitmen t torura l communities even more urgent. SECTION 1
Sustainable development and rural communities RURAL COMMUNITY, LAND USE DYNAMICS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
ChristopherR . Bryant
Département de géographie, Université de Montréal,Canada .
Abstract
In the concept of sustainable development, economic development and care for the environment can be integrated by the notion of community interest. In this way, sustainabledevelopment implicates weighing of culturally, biophysically and economically feasible alternativesfor long termcommunity economic development. The heterogeneity of rural areas has to be reflected in the initiativesthat are to be taken locally with a broad base of community input. The community has to recognize where it stands in relation to other potential users and regions and to consider alternative scenario's. Seniorlevels of government, responsiblefor themacro-environment, shouldbe prepared to encouragelocal initiative,at the sametime being responsiveto local needs,
Keywords: sustainable development, community interest, community economic development.
Introduction
In the dynamic and open environment of post industrial society with its emphasis on information and services (Bryant, 1988),question s regarding the viability and continuity of rural communities continue to be posed. The questions deal both with the conditions under which "rural" economic activities - and hence rural communities - can be maintained, and with the form and continuity of the social and cultural fabric of rural community life. The challenges for planning and management are twofold:
1. the appropriate utilisation of rural resources within a long term time-frame, and 2. the identification andharnessin g of appropriate opportunities for "rural" development.
Apparently opposing perspectives surface between proponents of the long term maintenance of community and environment in rural areas. Often, the views are characterised as pitting "economic" interests against "community" and "environment" interests. Economic interests are often characterised as short term in nature, and even community interests can be cast into the same mould when questions of employment opportunities are involved. However, economic interests are not only to be seen as short term, and when the longer term community interest in the maintenance of economic activities is stressed,economic ,communit y andenvironmenta l interests haveth epotentia l to converge. Both the decline of certain communities and the rise of others raise questions about the "limits"t orura l land use development in the broadest sense.Hav e certain limits been transcended in theforme r typeo fcommunities ,leadin g to theirdecline ,e.g . poor forestry management and the demise of forest products industries or soil erosion in agricultural areas? And in the latter type of communities, are there limits that are being pushed up against because of growth and expansion, e.g. capacity of the environment to absorb waste,an dwate rqualit y andquantit y limits?Th eanswe ri scertainl y "yes"i nman ycases , but it is also considerably more complex. "Limits"t orura l land use development are not only biophysical and technical, but are alsocultura l andpolitica l (e.g. the capacity of the local community to initiate and support alternative developments or the capacity of a community to absorb and adjust to rapid growth) and economic (e.g. markets declining below critical threshold levels for rural service viability). Furthermore, these limits are not static. That is why there is a need to seerura l land use change and development not so much in terms of "limits" but rather in terms of more robust and dynamic conceptual frameworks such as community (economic) development and sustainable development.
Sustainable Development
The sustainable development concept, with its emphasis on integration of economic development and environment (cf. World Commission on Environment and Economy, Otv^-? > 1987),ha s gained widespread acceptance into the language of academics,politician s and business leaders (MacNeil, 1988),partl yn odoub t becausei tappear st ooffe r aconceptua l framework within which what have hitherto often been regarded as widely different interests- and even incompatible interests - can work together. The complexity of the concept is, however, one of its biggest challenges. The days when sustainable development could be related to the capacity of the biophysical environment to sustain particular development paths are long past. The biophysical environment is undoubtedly a major component of sustainable development but there are also cultural and economic dimensions. Furthermore, there are particularly difficult scaledilemma s (e.g.ho wd ow earticulat e guidelines for sustainable development at the micro level -individual , firms, communities - when the open system in which we live suggests that notions of self-sufficiency are unlikely toprovid e useful guidelines and that division of labour and function inevitably mean that choices leading to the elimination of certain development options have to made?). It is interesting that in two workshops conducted in Canada in 1988 to discuss the challenge of the "Brundtland" report, mosto f thediscussio n centred onnationa l and international institutional initiatives andresponse s (Davidson andDence , 1988),an dlittl e thought wasgive n toguideline s and initiatives at the local level. The complexity of sustainability can be illustrated with reference to a sustainable agricultural food production system. Brklacich (1989) argues that such a system has at least three dimensions: a biophysical dimension or the capability to maintain a satisfactory potential in the biophysical resource; a food sufficiency dimension or the capability of the system to meet food needs; and aproduce r dimension or the capability of the system to provide adequate returns to the farm producer. All three dimensions involve relative as opposed to absolute values; they become even more complex if relationships with other sectors and other values (e.g. amenity value of farm landscapes and broad equity considerations) are considered. As soon as cultural and economic dimensions are introduced in the context of sustainingrura lcommunities , sustainabledevelopmen t becomestranslate dint oth epursui t of culturally, biophysically and economically feasible alternatives for (long term) community economic development. This implies somefor m ofplannin gan d management so that the search for sustainable alternatives is oriented towards achieving some set of
10 goals or, in other words, some vision of the community's future. Animportan t question then is "Whosegoal so r whosevision? "Ther e isa dange rwhe n working with the cultural dimension that sustainable development could be used as an excuse to perpetuate some particular power structure or structure of society in which social justice is lacking. However, such structures seem inevitably to face unrest and upheaval and so may not betrul y sustainable in the longrun . The trap however provides part of the answer - the vision must involve informed input from right across the community. Sustainable rural communities can be equated with the maintenance and improvement of the quality of life in a community. This in turn is linked to the long term survival of the community in terms of equity of access to employment opportunities, income, adequate living conditions and recreational opportunities. Placed in this perspective, the biophysical environment is no longer something to be dealt with separately as a distinguishable "sector" which receives impacts that have to be evaluated, but rather as an integral element of the support base and values embedded in the community.
Diversificationof usesand functions and the heterogeneity of ruralareas
In attempting tocreat emor e sustainable use of rural resources andmor e sustainable rural communities, efforts frequently focus either on diversifying the range of uses and functions andactivitie sor ,i ncertai n typeso f geographic situations,o nmanagjn g multiple pressures on the land resource more effectively. In the latter case, the various forms of multiple use management of the land resource are clearly of interest. But the nature of the problem to be addressed in achieving sustainablerura l communities varies depending upon the circumstances of the area being considered. Sincesustainabl edevelopmen to frura lcommunitie smus taddres sbiophysical ,cultural , political and economic dimensions, and since each of these dimensions has the potential to vary regionally and from community to community, it follows that sustainable approaches to the development of rural communities and land uses that work in one area might not be appropriate in another area. Furthermore, from the perspective of diversification of uses and functions in rural communities, both the pressures and opportunities to engage in diversification vary in intensity inrelationshi p to proximity to the metropolitan core areas of the economic system. In the urban fringe in metropolitan regions, demands on rural land resources can be substantial. Public planning policy at the local level in many urban fringe municipalities has mainly been concerned with trying to sortou t themultipl e andoftentime s conflicting demands for the land resource base and with trying to manage the expansion process. In a sense, the limits to different types of land use development in many urban fringe municipalities are internal to the municipalities, e.g. limits of the biophysical resource base to absorb and accommodate waste disposal, limits of the local infrastructure such as schools and sewage treatment facilities, limits imposed by attitudinal differences of exurbanitepopulation s to additional developments,limit s simply in terms of the available land base to satisfy the various demands, and so forth (Table 1). External limits in thesecommunitie s includeconstraint s placed ondevelopmen t by upper levels of government (regional, provincial/state, national/federal). Land use planning in such urban fringe municipalities has tried to sort out the competing demands for land and tackle the overall volume of such demands by: 1) arranging patterns of single use/purpose zones ("exclusionary" would be too strong a term) in such a way as to decrease incompatibilities and maintain or even increase
11 efficiency in residential, commercial and industrial land development; and 2) by specifying rules and conditions under which certain land uses can be developed in zonesprimaril y oriented toothe r functions (e.g.residentia ldevelopmen t inprim e farming areas). Increasingly, the land use issues that have to be dealt with fall outside the traditional realm and techniques of land use planning (e.g. soil conservation concerns,
Table 1. Internal and external limits to rural land use development: examples
Location of rural Internal limits External limits communities
Urban fringe Capacity of biophysical environment. Upper levels of e.g. for waste disposal, water supply government Availability of appropriate space to responds to demands Capacity of local municipal government to manage and direct change Capacity of local infrastructure Conflicts between resident and non resident groups of appropriate development
Peripheral rural Capacity of resource base to sustain Range of communities economic activities opportunities Capacity of biophysical environment, for e.g. for development waste disposal, alternative absorption of pollution development Capacity of community to initiate change path waterpollutio n from agricultural sources andlandscap e amenityconsiderations ) andmor e management-oriented approaches involving persuasive-regulatory modes of operation (Bryant et al., 1982; Bryant and Russwurm, 1982) are becoming more significant such as access negotiation for trail development and management agreements in environmentally sensitive areas. These are essentially multiple-purpose use approaches that through various form of agreement help achieve more efficient use of the land resource in the context of sustainable development The key to the development of multiple-purpose use policies in the urban fringe lies in understanding values. One of the main challenges is therefore to reconcile apparent conflicts in values between thosewh oliv e andwor ki n the community (e.g.fanners ) and those who live and/or play there (e.g. exurbanites, and weekend or Sunday afternoon recreationists). Sustainable development thusha s toconten d with thequestio n of "Whose vision of the community and area?" is being aimed at. This is a difficult situation in urban fringe municipalities where potentially large numbers of users of the area do not live there and where there is potentially a substantial number of new residents. Recognition of the legitimacy of the values and needs of these groups involves recognising that the form, composition and even function of the community will change. "Sustainable" therefore does not mean maintaining the status quo; indeed, the dynamic characteristics of the sustainability concept are underscored in urban fringe areas. Beyond the urban fringe, it is not so much the pressure of multiple demands that threaten themaintenanc e of asustainabl e rural community asth einabilit y of theresourc e base and production system (e.g. farming, mining, forestry, fishing) to support the same levelo f population. Therear ecertainl y internal limits that are involved such as when the biophysical limits of the resource base are surpassed through mismanagement of the
12 renewable resource or when the values held within the community make consideration of change a difficult proposition.However , there are also external limits on development which can be particularly powerful and which include: 1. the opportunities for alternative economic development options especially given that markets external to the community play a more important role the smaller the community; and 2. socio-cultural limits that are grounded in value differences between different "users" of an area regarding appropriate use of resources and multiple use of the area (e.g. logging versus conservation versus recreation) 3. restrictions imposed onrate s ofresourc eutilisatio n by seniorlevel s of government that reflect the need to maintain renewable resource productivity (e.g.fisheries quota s and licenses, and timber cutting rates) and control short term resource exploitation. In rural communities both within andbeyon d theurba n fringe, thefundamenta l issues are not somuc h technical ones butrathe r ones that require sorting out values, objectives and developing a consensus between the interested parties. Unfortunately, land use planning often seems to be viewed as a technical activity in which it is possible to develop technically-sound standards, rules and regulations. It is also unfortunate that it is often seen as distinct from community economic development (Bryant, 1989).
Community Economic Development as Sustainable Development
Community-based economic development has the potential to become one of the most important vehicles for promoting sustainable development and sustainable rural communities; it is argued that without some explicit link between, on the one hand, the policies and strategies dealing with environment and economy adopted at national and international levels and, on the other hand, those adopted at local and regional levels, it will bedifficul t for sustainable development tobecom efull y integrated intoth e evolution of the socio-economic system. For instance, practically every project and every development of an economic activity share one characteristic - location within or close to a community. Therefore, looking at such changes in the context of a community-based economic development planning process gives the potential for addressing the whole range of environmental, cultural andeconomi c issues that impinge upon the sustainability of rural communities. Why is this so? Community-based or local economic development involves three key dimensions (Bryant and Preston, 1987): 1. the articulation of goals and objectives for development by the community; 2. the active involvement of the community in selecting and implementing various strategies and monitoring them; 3. the use of local resources and initiative in the development process.
The purpose of this process is to help achieve the community's needs as represented in its vision of itself more effectively, thereby creating a better quality of life as defined by thoseneed s andvision .I ttherefor e follows thatcommunity-base d economic development depends upon a broadly based representation of the different interests (resident stakeholders) in the community. (The argument is made below that when these three dimensions are articulated through a strategic development planning process, it can also addressinterest s inth ecommunit y from non-resident stakeholders.) Therei sn oguarante e of simple solutions, because differences in attitude and perception may persist; however,
13 involving the stakeholders in the process from the outset at least ensures that different perspectives are heard. Thenatur e of local communityeconomi cdevelopmen t planningi showeve rofte n a far cry from the ideal position outlined above. In urban fringe rural municipalities, little attention has been paid to influencing the typeo f economic activities developing. Local economic development efforts exist in such locations, but they are frequently simply oriented towards managing the growth processes. Little in the way of community involvement has occurred in orienting the type and nature of development, and there are not infrequent tensions that develop between land use plans and planners, on the one hand, andeconomi c development officers on the other. Elitist forms of land useplannin g and economic development planning dominate, and it has been too easy to forget the local population's viewpoints and input, and focus instead on the transition from rural to urban without worrying about the alienation of the resident population. Beyond the urban fringe, the community focus of local economic development planning is also often poorly developed. Economic development planning is often non existent (as in many agriculturally-oriented communities and service centres) or it is poorly coordinated and not particularly representative of the community. In both cases, a stronger management-oriented planning process is called for that is more flexible, that is focussed on sorting out the different values in a community, that ensures a realistic setting of objectives and that integrates the community in a more effective manner with its broader environment, including recognising the legitimacy of considering non-resident user interests in the community and its environment. Strategic (community)economi cdevelopmen tplannin gha sth epotentia lt oprovid ethi s approach to sustainable rural community development, both in the urban fringe and beyond. First, it is a process that necessitates a broad base of community input. Without this, the vision towards which a community tries to move is likely to be that of an "elite" group. With informed community input, there is a greater potential for the vision to be a truly shared one, or at least one with which most interests in the community can find something to identify. Second, because it is not an inward-looking process,bu ton e which necessitates the communityrecognisin g wherei t stands inrelatio n to other potential users, residents, employers and other municipalities and regions, it encourages the community to consider alternative scenarios of development and to evaluate their potential impacts. Sustainable development is not a state that can be defined once and for all. By including cultural and economic dimensions, it is necessarily dynamic. We can therefore never "know" what the perfect state is. Our knowledge base is, in any case, inadequate to cover all eventualities. But a process that draws upon the collective knowledge base within a community seems more likely to be able to address the full range of issues in a more sustainable fashion that an elitist, technocratic or bureaucratic mode of management and planning could do. Sustainable development at the community level can play the same role in relation to national and international initiatives as community economic development initiatives generally can play in relation to national or top-down initiatives, viz. the harnessing of local knowledge and the incorporation of individuals 'and communities' values into the planning process. The only caveat is that for such locally responsive development planning to occur in rural communities, it is essential that: 1) the macro-environment created by senior levels of government is responsive to the needs of local communities; 2) these levels of government are prepared to recognise and encourage local initiative;
14 and 3) that broader representation from the various stakeholders in the community is a fundamental part of the process. Furthermore, with greater community awareness and sophistication, greater pressures can be brought to bearupo n senior levels of government for them toperfor m therole s that are appropriate to them in the sustainable development field more effectively, such asdealin g directly with corporate players to ensure that they in turn deal properly with communities, setting appropriate health and public safety standards, and creating afai r set of rules for resource exploitation that takes into account long term physical productivity of the resource base and inter- and intragenerational equity in terms of access toincom e and employment. This linking of community and the macro-policy environment appears to becritica l in making sustainablerura l communities with their environmental,cultura l andeconomi c dimensions,a n acceptable and attainable reality.
15 L MULTIPLE-GOAL ASSESSMENT FOR LAND RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT: THE CASE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
Yongyuan Yin and J. T. Pierce
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C., Canada
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to develop a framework to evaluate multiple-goal and multiple-sector land resource developmentfor a broad region in north-easternBritish Columbia. Specifically, the study attempts to identify a suitable methodologyfor the assessmentof land resource developmentprospects with respect to environmental, social, and economic goals, and to make tradeoffs between conflicting land uses of different sectors.
Keywords: multi-goal, multi-sector, land use assessment.
Introduction
Theapproac h tolan dresourc e assessment,durin gth elas tthre edecades ,ha sevolve d from simple appraisals of the suitability and capability of land for a given activity to comprehensive and integrative analyses of the prospects/potential of numerous end uses of land. Integrated resource assessment is now the basic means to achieve integrated resource management (IRM) which Mitchell (1986) suggests is a comprehensive, systematic and co-ordinated approach aimed at achieving the 'best' use of natural resources. Decision makers and planners are recognizing the multiple uses of land which reflect possible choices andoption s for societyan d thenee dt oevaluat e theeconomic ,socia lan d environmental implications of these choices (McAllister, 1973; O'Riordan & Turner, 1983; Rees, 1985). As such IRM isno w awidel y accepted concept in resource planning. Increasingly inCanada ,resourc eplannin gi sconducte d atth eprovincia lan dfedera l levels by relatively few ministries such as agriculture, forestry, and energy/mines. In the majority of cases the allocation/designation of land still reflects single sector biases and historical inertia with little understanding or appreciation of the trade-offs involved. For example, in British Columbia despite the importance attached to wilderness and wildlife values,forestr y interests dominate all but a few of the crown land designations. The gap therefore between the theory and the practice of IRM remains large as are the conflicts over use of land. While there are numerous political/institutional reasons for this gap, such as the dominance of someresourc e ministries over others andth e inability to define long-term goals,al lo f which aredifficul t toovercome , the gapca n benarrowe d by more thoughtful and systematic use of available techniques and information for integrated land use assessment. The purpose of this study is to develop a comprehensive and systematic framework to assessmultiple-goa l andmultiple-secto r landresourc e development for abroa d region ~ the Peace River Region of British Columbia (B.C.).
16 Research procedures
Stages
A land resource assessment framework, based on a specific type of goal programming (GP)mode l isdevelope d for thepurpos e of multi-goal andmulti-secto r landresourc e use assessment. Themai n elements of theframewor k areillustrate d inFigur e 1.Th e research procedures are purposely kept general and are composed of the following steps corresponding to the boxes in Figure 1.
Goals,priorities , andweights : Economic,environmental , Decisionmaker s productional,recreational , andplanner s andwetlan dproductio n
Landresourc eassessmen tmode l Scenarios Agricultural _ Forestry Wetland Alternative 3 activities activities acüviüviues landuse s
Landresourc edat abas e Landresourc eavailabilit y Landresourc e suitability Landresourc eproductivit y Outputo r solution Biophysical/Socio-economic determinants
Figure 1. Research framework
1. Theprocedur e begins with anidentificatio n of goals.I n thepubli c sector landresourc e development goals are diverse representing the preferences of decision makers at federal, provincial and regional levels of government. These goals include: (1) sustainabiliy ofregiona lresourc eproductio n tomee tfutur e domestic andexpor tneeds ; (2) economic efficiency which may maximize returns or minimize costs; (3) soil erosion control in land development; (4) habitat/wetland conservation.
2. Information is required on the quantity, quality, and distribution of the land resource base. To this end assessments need to be made of the capability/suitability of the various land uses and the extent to which technological and other socio-economic factors might influence the prospects for various uses of the land.
3. To assess the implications of land use change or environmental change arising from different development goals various land use scenarios are created. Scenarios, reflecting possible future land use conditions, may represent a base-line condition, a continuation of the status quo or different assumptions about the growth and
17 distribution of certain land uses.
4. Inorde r toevaluat e andcompar e theselan dresourc e usealternatives ,an dt odetermin e the implications for various goals, goal programming techniques are required.
Goal programming
In this study, goalprogrammin g (GP) models aredevelope d to undertake multi-objective and multi-sector landus e assessment. Thebasi c structure of themode l includes goalsan d constraints. The specific equations of these models are grouped into the following types: resource restrictions and other restrictions, supply-demand balances, and the objective functions which represent the resource development goals. A simplified goal programming model can be expressed as follows (Ignizio, 1982):
+ + Minimize Z = [gl(d-,d ),g 2(d-,d ), g^d*)]
Subject to: X = (xx, x2 , X:)fo r each j; fi (X) + dj" - di+ = bi (i = 1, 2,..., m)
X, dj", di+ > 0
Where:
Z is a vector-valued function encompassing the successive decision criteria which represent a number of preemptive priority levels among the objectives. The concept of preemptive priority assumes that any goals at priority level k will always be preferred to (i.e. preempt) any at a lower priority levels k+1,...; + gk(d",d ) is a linear function of the deviation variables at priority level k; X is the feasible region from which to select the vector x; f;(X) is a function of decision variables associated with the ith objective; b; is target value for goal i; d;"an d cL+ are the negative and positive deviations from b;respectively ; + + d" and d are vectors of (dj", c^",...,d ;") and (dj ,d2 ,..., djj respectively. The Z vector is the objective function which minimizes the deviation from each goal. When there exists an "optimal" value of Z* which is preferred to or the same as any other vector Z, the corresponding "optimal" solution X* of the goal programming model is considered most satisfactory (Cocklin, 1989). If the minimum value of Z is zero, there is a no-conflict optimal solution for the model. All goals can be met in this situation. When the minimum Z value is not zero, there is some non-achievement for the associated goal levels. For any particular goal, there are threepossibl e outcomes:(1 ) acomplet e goal attainment; (2) apositiv e deviation from the goal (d+), when more than the desired goal level is obtained; and (3) an underachievement (d"), when the desired goal level is not attained. The most desirable solution is obtained when the sum of the non-attainment of goals is minimized according to the preemptive priorities of the model. GP has been commonly used to allocate land resources tovariou s uses,suc h that ase t of predetermined goals is best satisfied (Romero and Rehman, 1987). One of the distinctive features of themode l developed in this study is the emphasis placed ondesig n
18 of meaningful scenariosreflecting prospectiv e land uses, and translation of the scenarios into themodel' s structure toexamin e the land useimplications . Instead of being used as adevic e for resource allocation and planning purposes,G Pmodel s in this study function as a tool for impact assessment and scenario analysis. When applying the GP models in this study, it is assumed that a set of goals are ranked in order of importance on an ordinal scale, such as 'most important' or first priority, 'next most important' or second priority, and so on. This is also named lexicographic ordering of goals, which reflects decision making in the real world. In addition, a target level or achievement level is assigned to each goal. Priority rank and target level represent decision maker's preference and aspiration respectively for a seto f goals.Thus ,decisio n makers associated withdifferen t Ministries or agencies will usually provide rank order and target levels for a set of goals quite differently. This often creates conflicts in multiple goal and multiple sector land resource assessment.
Study area
In the Peace River Region of B.C., there is concern over effective land resource allocation and management. Given the biophysical nature of the land and multiple demands for that land, land use conflicts and land degradation are becoming the rule rather than the exception. Questions have been asked whether a specific area should be alienated for agricultural uses, or retained as forest land or wetland. Underlying these concerns is perceived need for soil erosion control strategies (Environment Canada, 1985a; Environment Canada, 1985b; BCMOA&F, 1985). Given these issues, four areas within the Peace River Region were isolated for analysis, each representing a different mix of land use problems and conflicts.
Data requirements
The establishment of a common data base which incorporates various data sets from different sectors such as agriculture, forestry and environment, is a necessary step for integrated resource assessment. Information about land resources, land use, and land use conflicts in the Peace River Region of B.C. is available from a wide range of sources. However, comprehensive land data bases with a wide array of land use categories are uncommon. The existing land resource data sources tend to focus on one use such as agriculture, forestry or wildlife. These data bases were established by each Ministry or individual agency for its own needs. Such data sources limit integrated resource assessment because of inconsistencies in scale and coverage. Commonly, when several data sources are used, the variety of scales and mapping units used pose problems of comparability. In this study, geometric units or map sections are used as the basic units for assessment. Information from various sources such as surveys, census, government agencies or ecological units can be modified to the grid units or sections through the superimposition of various landresourc emaps .Thi sprocedur eprovide s a comprehensive data base with a broad array of land use categories for land use assessment in the study area.
Main framework
The land resource assessment framework developed for this study consists of three
19 sub-models anda nintegrate dmodel .Th ethre esub-model srepresen t agricultural, forestry, and wetland sectors. Relationships between sub-models and integrated models are depicted in Figure 2.
Integratedmode l Goals: Resourceproductio n Neteconomi cretur n Soilerosio n control Forestcove r Wetlandprotectio n
Agricultural Forestry Wetland sub-model sub-model sub-model Goals: Goals: Goals: Production Production Habitat Netretur n Netretur n and Soilerosio n Soilerosio n hunting control control value
Figure 2. Multiple-sector land use assessment system.
At the regional level, land resource assessment of various resource sectors taken as a whole may be based upon goals such as sustainable resource production, economic efficiency, soil erosion control and wetland protection. These regional resource development goalsprescrib e certain limits on land use options atth e sectoral level.Lan d use assessments at bothregiona l and sectoral levels mustconside r arang e of goals which reflect the diverse preferences and aspirations existing amongst decision makers. A survey of preferences and aspirations for landresourc e management was conducted among the staff in various ministries at both provincial and regional levels in B.C. Interviews with resource supervisors, specialists, and administrative assistants provided information to determine land resource use objectives. Individuals were asked to rank a set of goals in order of importance on an ordinal scale and to relate each goal to an acceptable target level so that each goal can be expressed in the form of a achievement level. The target levels of various goals are presented in Table 2. Information collected was sorted into goal, priority, and target schedules as shown in Table 1. Tabulations were made for the three individual resource sectors (agriculture, forestry, and wetland) and for the resource system of the region as a whole. The preference orderings established the goals,priorit y rankings, land use activities and land bases for each of the three sub-models and the integrated model.
20 Results
Scenarios 1t o 4 are designed for the purpose of indicating the need for integrated land resource assessment. These scenarios are based on current land use conditions, land conversion rates, yields, prices, and other biophysical and socio-economic factors. An exception to this are the productiontarget s which are based on demand predictions made by government agenciesfo r theyea r 1995.Scenari o 1 represents an agricultural land use assessment system of the major agricultural land uses in the study area - wheat, barley, oats, canola, hay and summer-fallow. Land resource conversions and land use conflicts between sectors are notpresente d inth e analysis.Goa l target levels andpriorit y ordering of goals are based on decision makers' preference in the agricultural sector (see Tables 1&2).
Table 1.Lan d bases, activities, and goal priorities.
Model/Scenario Land bases Activities Goal priorities Agriculture/Ï Improved Wheat Production land Oat Net return Barley Erosion Control Canola Forage Summer-fallow
Forest/2 Woodland Spruce Production Lodgepole pine Net return Deciduous Erosion control Wetland/3 Wetland Status quo Habitat value Enhancement Duck hunting Integrated/4 Improved Sum of Net return land activities Production Woodland in three Erosion control and sub-models Forest cover Wetland Habitat value
Similarly, scenario 2 represents resource assessment within the forestry sector. The forestry sub-model is employed for assessment. Land resource availability, land use activities, goals andprioritie s attached tothes e goals arepresente d inTabl e 1 under forest sub-model category. Scenario 3i sdesigne d for wetland resource assessment. The habitat and hunting values are the targets of assessment. The assessment is undertaken by the wetland sub-model which delineates impacts in different land units.
In contrast to the three previous scenarios, scenario 4 is set for integrated land resource assessment coordinating agricultural, forestry, and wetland sectors.Th e integrated model provides linkages among these threeresourc e sectors,an dreflects a regiona lperspective . Under the integrated model category in Table 1, land use activities, land base and goal priorities for theintegrate d assessment areillustrated .Th egoal s andthei rpriorit y ranking are different from those of the sub-models. This reflects the different concerns by decision makers at different levels. In scenario 4, priority is given to agricultural production because of its economic importance in thePeac e River Region. Different land conversion rates are applied to represent various estimates of future land resource
21 conversion from one sector to another. In scenario 4, the current land conversion rate in the Peace River Region is adopted for assessment.
The results of scenario 1, listed in Table 2, indicate that under currrent conditions and 1995 production target levels, the land resource base, under present agricultural use, is only able to meet production targets for wheat, barley and oats. Insufficient lands are available for canola and hay production. The findings also show that the net economic return goal is achieved and some potential still exists. However, soil loss in agriculture exceeds the tolerance-value (T) target level by about 18.2 percent because row crop production is usually subject to heavier soil loss by water erosion.
The forestry sector, represented by scenario 2, shows a different picture. Results of this assessment illustrate that all the target levels of various goals in the sub-model are achieved. Itindicate s that theforestr y landbas ei s adequate toproduc e enough timber for future demand, to generate net economic return for land resource uses, and to keep soil erosion under the T-value target. The results of the forestry land use assessment agree with the real situation in the forestry sector in the study region. Annual allowable cut in this region is relatively low and can be achieved without considerable difficulties.
Table 2. Results of scenario 1-4.
Net Soil Forest Habitat Hunting ScenarioNGoal Wheat Barlev Oats Canola Hav Spruce Pine deciduous return erosion cover value value 3 3 3 Unit (0 (0 (t) (0 (t) (m ) (m ) (m ) (S) (0 (ha) (duck) (S) Target level 2000 3550 1070 1620 7020 168061.0 62070.0 1 Deviation 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 7020 0.0 11297.6
2 Target level 1432.2 613.8 2758.7 15702.1 75756.8 Deviation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Target level 9517.0 4917.2 Deviation 0.0 0.0
4 Target level 2000 3550 1070 1620 7020 1432.2 613.8 2758.7 195000.0 76615.0 2991.5 9517.0 Deviation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5613.8 0.0 0.0 1004.5 0.0 2814.4 133.4 0.0
One of the additional functions that forests provide is that they reduce soil loss significantly. Scenario 3,represente d by the wetland sub-model, considers only two goals. Results of this run show that both the habitat valuegoa l and the hunting goal are achieved.Fro m 1981 through 1986 the number of hunters decreased by about 40 percent due to the decline of hunting success. The results indicate that the wetland enhancement projects offset the declining hunting value and thus the hunting value goal set by B.C. Ministry of Environment can still be reached.
The fourth run, scenario 4, is undertaken by the integrated model which represents a regional and multi-sectoral land resource assessment system. This integrated model incorporates all the land use activities and goals presented in the previous three sub-models. However, the results of the integrated land resource assessment are quite different from the sum of all theresult s of the three sub-models. In the integrated model, landresource s areconverte d from forestry usesan dwetlan d activities toagricultura l uses. The conversion rates are based upon previous rates of growth in agricultural land use.
22 This kind of land resource conversion changes the situation of achieving different land use goals. Land resources available for crop production increase with land conversion. Thus it is now possible for the study region to achieve goals of canola and hay production.O nth eothe rhand ,lan dconversio nreduce s theavailabilitie s oflan dresource s for forestry and wetland activities. Now, the timber production goal cannot be achieved. Most of this underachievement is due to the conversion of land under low value deciduousproduction . Somewildlif e habitats arelos tdu et olan dresourc econversion ,an d thetota l habitat valuedecreases .Th eamoun to f soillos s inth e studyregio n has increased significantly. Soil loss from the integrated run is about 4 percent more than the sum of soil losses from the results of scenarios 1 and 2. Increasing land use activities in crop production causes greater soil loss for the region. Notwithstanding these shortcomings, the net economic return goal for the region is achieved.
Conclusions
The preceding analysis, with the aid of goal programming, has illustrated the possibility of achieving predetermined goals for sectors of the land use system and for the land use system as a whole. The exercise was an abbreviated one in that only a small number of goals and target levels were specified and outcomes analyzed. A more comprehensive analysis would include a much greater range of goals, priorities attached to these goals and target levels. Nevertheless the land use assessment system developed iij this paper highlights the weaknesses of considering only single objectives and single sectors, and the strength of multi-sector and multi-objective resource analyses. The system has the potential to provide important feedback to decision makers regarding the consequences of their actions for the attainment of certain goals.Clearly , much more thought and effort must go in to designing and refining systems such as this. Equally important however, if these exercises are to have any value at all, is that there must be institutional frameworks which allow for and indeed encourage the coordination of goals and information on land use.
23 THE CAREERS OF FARM MANAGERS IN ENGLAND AND WALES
Gordon Clark*, J. H. Johnson* and A. McAuley+
* Department of Geography, Lancaster University, Lancaster, U.K. + Department of Marketing, University of Stirling, Stirling, U.K.
Abstract
This paper examines the role offarm managers in the restructuringof agriculturein England and Wales. It documents their importancein certain key areas and outlines their careers, mobility andfunctions. Controversyamong their employers about how managersshould be usedis discussed, andcomments areoffered on theirfuture position.
Keywords: England and Wales, farm managers, survey, agricultural restructuring.
Introduction
The restructuring of British farming is proceeding with surprising speed and is affecting many aspects of food production (Marsden et al., 1986a, 1986b;Whatmor e et al., 1987). New types of landowner (financial institutions, for example) have bought farms as investments and injected new capital into food production (Munton, 1977). The long-term trend towards the enlargement of farms has continued (Marks and Britton, 1989,p p 10-12) and the production of food has become anincreasingl y capital- intensive and knowledge-intensive business. If investments in farming are to be profitable, there is a growing need for high levels of technical skills, and this will be reinforced if subsidies are further reduced. Farmers are also under pressure from the supermarket chains and from food processors to deliver high-quality, reliable, healthy products atlo w cost.
The farm manager
Within this process of restructuring it is necessary to unravel the mechanisms by which external capital penetrates agriculture and extracts surplus value/profit from it. Farm managers are of growing importance in British farming and they are most commonly associated with the growth of land ownership by financial institutions. Managers are potentially one means by which food production can be incorporated by external capital and modified to meet its needs in terms of rate of return on investment, short-term income, capturing capital growth and minimising risk to income. Farm managers are a key link in the chain which runs from City money to practical husbandry. If they bring to theirjo b superior technical and managerial skills, then they can assist any landowner (individual or corporate) in running an estate - a role they have long played for the landed gentry in the management of their great estates. Apart from the work of Giles (1986), little is known of farm managers' circumstances or of how they are used. A salaried farm manager is an employee (of a landowner or of his agent) whosejo b is to run a farm. His functions (and our studies discovered no female managers) may be
24 analogous tothos eo f afarme r in terms of decision-making and managerial responsibility but he will lack the security of tenure of the tenant, the equity stake in the business of the owner-occupier and the freedom of husbandry of both.
The importance of farm managers
Since 1972 the Agricultural Census has recorded the number of farm managers in England and Wales - there are no data for Northern Ireland and the Scottish figures are rough estimates. There was a 61 per cent increase in the number of farm managers between 1972 and 1977 followed by a modest decline, then another peak in 1986 when there were 8314 managers. Some of this increase will have been due to better recording as farmers became used to this new question on the agricultural census form, but it is unlikely that this accounts for all the increase (Clark, 1982; Coppock, 1978; Peters, 1988). Managers are not evenly distributed across the country. Figure 1show s the percentage of agricultural holdings in each country run by managers and Figure 2 shows the percentageo feac hcounty' s agricultural areawhic hi sru nb ymanagers .Th e southernan d eastern bias in their distribution is clear on both maps. Since 1972 this core area has spread northwards and westwards: a similar spread in institutional land purchasing was noted by Munton (1977). Managers are of greatest importance on large farms (those which produce most of the nation's food) since half of all farms over 700'hectare s in England and Wales are run by managers.
Education and appointment
In-depth interviews were held with the eight largest land agents with major agricultural interests and they confirmed unanimously they attach much greater importance to the manager's personal qualitites, experience and proven abilities than they do to paper qualifications. Farm management companies and agricultural consultants give more weight to technical competence (and to in-service training to maintain this) and they showed a clear preference for managers with relevant degrees. The land agents, farm management companies and consultants all use formal methods of appointment - public advertisement of the post, written applications, short-listing and one or two interviews. The client (if any) would normally be involved only at the final interview stage. Three of the eight land agents interviewed the applicants' wives aswell . Individual private landowners whoappointe d managers were more likely tous e informal methodso f selection andappointmen t whichrelie d onloca lknowledge , a 'grapevine' and personal contacts.
The farm manager's job
Farm managers can act only within the limits setb y theiremployer s as tothei r duties and responsibilities. In order to examine managers' jobs and careers two surveys were conducted. One comprised a postal survey of 72 managers (out of 112 approached) who wereemploye di n 1986b yth elan dagents ,agricultura l consultants andfar m management companies whichha dbee n interviewed earlier.Twelv eo fthes eorganisation s employ 380 managers (5.5 per cent of the England and Wales total) who farm 11.1 per cent of the total agricultural area of England and Wales.Th e second survey comprised 60 randomly selected farm managers (30 in each of Lancashire,a dairyin gcounty , andLincolnshire ,
25 Percentage of holdings
no data D <2% m
2.0% - 3.9% •.-.••'
4.0% - 5.9% ^
>6.0%
Figure 1. Percentage of holdings with salariedmanager s bycount y inEnglan d andWales , 1985 an arable county). The 60 managers were each asked to nominate the neighbouring farmer who was most similar to them in terms of farm size and the balance of enterprises. Some managers ran farms so much larger than any of their neighbours that no matching farmer could be found. However, 47 matched farmers were identified and agreed to participate as a control group. This provided a reference group.albeit selected by the managers, with whom the latter could be compared.
Managers' Responsibility
Managers varied considerably in their degree of responsibility as Table 1 shows. The exactfigures i nthi stabl e needt ob etreate dwit h somecaution :manager s may under-state their powers for reasons of modesty or they may inflate their influence out of pride. However, the results are clear and are in accord with what we were told by their employers in the land agencies and farm management companies.
26 Percentage of agricultural area
no data $
0% - 4.9%
5.0% - 9.9%
10.0% - 14.9% ^XV/!
15.0% - 19.9%
20% and over
Figure 2. Percentage of total agricultural area farmed by salaried managers by county in England and Wales, 1985
Table1 . Managers'degre eo fresponsibility .
The managers' degree of responsibility is:
Tasks* complete partial nil no response
Daily organisation of farm 89.3% 10.7% - - Recruitment/dismissal of staff 48.1% 45.8% 4.6% 1.5% Trading 48.9% 48.9% 2.3% - Machinery purchase 47.3% 48.1% 4.6% - Farm-system decisions 51.1% 46.6% 2.3% - Long-term investment decisions 9.9% 75.6% 13.7% 0.8% Budgets and accounts 27.5% 58.8% 13.7% -
* The classification of tasks is adapted from Giles (1986 and his earlier surveys).
27 Theonl y aspect ofrunnin g thefar m overwhic h nearly allmanager s hadsol econtro lwa s the daily organisation of work. With respect to long- term investment andbudgeting , a clear majority of managers are at best partially responsible for these aspects and a sizeable minority were excluded completely. There are few aspects of running a farm which areexclusivel y thepreserv e of themanage r andfe w from which hei s generally excluded. Managers' responsibility is important as a guide to their salary. The best predictor of amanager' s salary ishi sdegre e of autonomy, that is, thenumbe r of aspects of running the farm for which the manager is wholly responsible (Clark et al. 1989). Autonomy is a better guide to managers' salary than factors such asfar m size, farmer's age or his qualifications.
Managing the managers
Discussions with thelan d agents andfar m management companies revealed aver y sharp division ofopinio nove r howmanager s shouldb euse dan dcontrolled , andove rho w they should fit into theorganisatio n tomee t its needs as well as theclient's . One land agency employed no managers itself, contracting out the work to a farm management company which it believed would doa bette r day-to- dayjob . However,al l the other land agencies ran their clients' farms using their own staff. A small minority of the agencies preferred to employ high-powered managers - probably with a degree, with substantial autonomy of action and well paid. The majority of the agencies - although occasionally using such managers on thelarges t farms or onth emor e isolated ones - preferred what they call "working farm managers". Such people are closer to foremen than to managers. Whatever their formal title, their actual duties extend little beyond day-to-day control and,althoug h they will beconsulte d onothe r aspects of farm planning, theke ydecision s on enterprises, investment andbudget s will betake n either at theregiona l or head office of the land agency orjointl y between the agency andth e landowner. Twolan d agencies were undecided over which type of manager to usean d operated both systems from different regional offices. Both the land agents and the farm management companies need a superstructure of control above theindividua l farm manager, andthi s wasmor e highly developed among the management companies, andparticularl y inth elargest . Thelatte r hada headquarters staff, regional managers, farm managers, assistant managers and management trainees who were called tractor drivers. The land agencies called such multi-level structures "top-heavy".Th elarges tfar m managementcompany ,mor etha n anyother ,promote dope n competition between itsmanager s within thecontex t ofstron gcentra l control ofcroppin g policy (they avoid livestock and all but the best quality land wherever possible). The management companies (including onelarg e organisation nolonge r trading) grew upt o manage thefarmlan d bought byfinancia l institutions from thelat e 1960s.No wtha t they havebee n through aperio do fdisinvestmen t as landprice s andfar m incomes have fallen, the management companies are competing for more business from individual private landowners, formerly the exclusive domain of the land agencies. The companies stress thehig h technical standardso fthei rmanager s (mostlywit hdegree san dregula rin-servic e training) despite their relatively low level of autonomy. Their chief selling points for winning clients arethei r high level of technical competence andthei r high profitabilaity on good quality arable land. Two of the smaller management companies were so unimpressed by the management training given by the agricultural colleges that they employed management graduates with no farming background to whom they taught farming. This is therevers e of the normal order where management skills aregrafte d on
28 to practical farmers.
There isreall y no consensus on what sort of people should be appointed managers, nor on how they should be used, nor on how the managers themselves should be managed.
Managers' careers
Fanning is traditionally a family business. In our survey all the matched farmers in Lincolshire and 88 per cent of them in Lancashire were the sons of farmers. Many managers, however, were drawn from non- farming background - 60pe r cent of thosei n Lincolnshire and 40 per cent in Lancashire did not have parents who farmed. However, the managers did notbrin g muchpersona l experience of working outsidefarmin g to their agricultural careers.Onl y 15pe rcen to f themanager s (allexcep t one werei nLancashire ) had ever had any job outside farming. These were usually in farming-related industries (buying and selling farm machinery or produce, for example) and they were usually the first job in the manager's career as he sought an opening into farm management. For a farmer, a career really means developing one's present farm: only 15pe r cent of the matched famers had had more than one previousjo b (excluding full-time education and service in the armed forces) whereas 72pe r cent of the managers had had more than one. Indeed 43 per cent of the managers had had three or more previous jobs. Mobility is an essential part of the manager's career unlike for a farmer. / Only one fifth of the managers' changes ofjo b were promotion (a better paidjo b with the sameemployer ) andmos to fthes eworke dfo rfar m management companies. Mobility is between employers and not within corporate structures. The companies deliberately used a competitive atmosphere between their managers at all levels to provide evidence for the promotion of a few to higher grades or larger farms. In sharp contrast the land agents were strongly opposed tomovin g orpromotin g staff. The manager was expected to remain in post or, if he wished to better himself, to move to a new employer. Suppressing the desire and ability to move was one reason why the land agents preferred the less well qualified "working farm managers". What the managers themselves wanted was a better paid job and for two- thirds of managers their careers comprised an unbroken rise in real salary from job tojob . Drops in salary were either tactical retreats to allow later promotion or they were enforced moves brought on by illness, dismissal, the farm's bankruptcy or the return of a son to work on the family farm. These more enforced moves reinforce the sharp contrast between the lack of security of employment and income among managers and the easier position of farmers. Only three per cent of the managers in Lancashire and Lincolnshire had acquired any equity stake in the farms they managed. With a change of job mostly requiring a change of employer, it is not surprising that two-thirds of managers have had careers spanning both private employers and corporate employers (e.g. land agents and management companies). The skills needed by the two types of employer are very similar. When staff changed job, they tended to stay in the same sector of farming (e.g. arable or dairying) particularly if they were employed by land agents or farm management companies. These have sufficiently large numbers of openings to allow the managers to develop continuously a single set of husbandry skills. The managers employed by individual private landowners more often had to change sector (and acquire new skills) when they changedjob . A striking feature of the managers' careers is their geographical mobility (Table 2). Over half the moves involving Lincolnshire managers and land agents' managers were
29 inter-regional. In contrast the Lancashire managers (who worked more often for private landowners) weremor efirml y rootedi ntha tcounty .Mos to fth einter-regiona lmove s (84 percent )involve d EastAnglia ,th eMidland s andSout hEas tEnglan d whereth e corporate employers (and managers in general) are most prevalent. Over half the managers had already made at least two inter- regional moves in their careers so far. Even at the scale of local moves,thos ebetwee n farming companies are sixtime s morecommo n than those within the companies. The dairying skills of the Lancashire managers are obviously less relevant for the arable farming of southern and eastern England which partly explains their more constrained pattern ofjo b mobility. Managers' first and second inter-regional moves came between three and six years after the first and second changes of job, that is, some way into their careers and not at the start.
The future of the farm manager
The future for farm managers as a group will be determined by their cost-benefit ratio. A manager, even one of the lower paid "working farm managers", will cost a salary (median manager's salary was 12,500 in 1987), two in three get a pension, half get bonuses and four in five the free use of ahous e and vehicle.Wit h modest assumptions this will come to well over 20,000 and, if the house is a valuable one in south-east
Table 2. Geographical migration of managers when changing job
Corporate* Lancashire Lincolnshire Within county 24.3% 63.0% 39.7% Between counties in one region 18.5% 4.1% 6.9% Between standard regions 51.8% 28.8% 50.0% To abroad 1.8% 1.4% 1.7% From abroad 3.6% 2.7% 1.7%
•Corporate employers include land agents and farm management companies England,it sopportunit y costcoul deasil yrais eth eincom eforegon e andtota l employment cost to over 30,000 per annum. Will the manager raise the farm's income by more than this cost? On large farms, in highly profitable or subsidised sectors (e.g. cereals), the answer is likely to be affirmative even for a well paid, well qualified manager. In other cases it may well be cheaper to buy specialist consultancy when it is needed, or use headquarters' staff to make the key decisions for several farms and instruct skilled foremen who do the day-to-day supervision of staff. The likelihood is therefore that the group called farm managers will continue to polarise. There willl be the lower paid, foreman-type manager whodoe s alos t of manual workhimself , isles s well qualified and whose career will be locally based. Then there will be the consultant-type managers who do little manual work, aremanager s not technicians,wh o are sufficiently expert that they could become consultants (for their employers or self-employed) and whose careers and effective labour markets will be national or international (Clark and Johnson, 1987). Generally, managers are highly desirable for landowners because can be re-deployed, transferred or sacked as thedeman d for labour varies.Th eus e offar m managers removes one major rigidity in the supply of labour to agricultural production, namely that each farm needs afarmer . Just ascasua l staff areformin g anincreasin gproportio n of thehire d workers on farms, sofar m managers could themselves be victims of this casualization of labour (Clark, 1991). Traditionally managers have brought to theirjo b the most up-to-date husbandry skills
30 and good managerial abilities. It is not clear that you can expect all managers to master both when each is of growing importance for acceptable profitability judged by commercial standards. This too suggests that a splitting of functions may occur with the technical and managerial skills being acquired from different people. The restructuring of British agriculture over the last twenty-five years created the openings and need for farm managers, but the next generation may have to meet the high-level technical and managerial requirements of large-scale farming in other cheaper ways.
Acknowledgment: The authors acknowledge gratefully the financial support of the (British) Economic and Social Research Council grant number F00232208).
31 THE ISRAELI FAMILY FARM: CHANGING STRUCTURES AND PROBLEMS OF ADJUSTMENT
David Grossman
Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan, Israel
Abstract
Thepressures facing family farmers in Westerncountries have not escapedIsrael, but they have been underestimated because of rigid institutional controls over the rural sector. However, during the past decade the Israeli rural sector has been upset by inflationand rising indebtedness and this has led toan agricultural crisisand tomajor ruralre-structuring. Thispaper is concerned withthe impactof the crisison thefate of the most widespread settlement type, the family farmer cooperative settlement - the moshav. Of the variousproblems facing the moshav, thispaper focuses on thosewhich arisefrom the economiesand diseconomies of scale.Special emphasisis placed onthe problems of the internaldiseconomies of cultivatingthe small-scalemoshav plots. The main conclusionsare that the limitedrange of farm strategies, resultingfrom insistence on an equalizedminute scale (3 ha plots) andon mandatory cooperation, areamong the main causesfor aggravatingthe recentcrisis.
Keywords: moshav, Israel, family farm, cooperation, farm size.
Introduction
Recent agro-technical and socio-economic developments have profoundly altered rural villages and land uses. In Israel the transformation process has been compressed into a shortperiod .Mos t of the agricultural villages were settled only after 1948,bu tdurin g the past decade this settlement system has been severely upset. This paper seeks to provide the background for this crisis, and to identify its major causes. It is concerned with the fate of the most widespread settlement type, the family farmercooperativ esettlemen tth emosha v (moreprecisel ymosha vovdim ;a sdistinc t from the moshav shitufi which resembles the kibbutz in its communal production system, but differs from the latter in thatconsumptio n isprivate) .O f the variousproblem s facing the moshav, this paper focuses on those which arise from the constraints associated with the strict control of plot size.
The family farm in Israel-general character and recent problems
The family farm is the backbone of the agricultural sector in many countries. It has survived numerous economic, cultural, and technological modifications, but its ability to last into the future has recently been questioned (Vogeler, 1981). In Israel the family management are rigid. Cooperation in marketing and equality in the distribution of land holdings are obligatory. Depending on location size is 3 hectares (Tzaban, 1988). Land is held in 49-year rental contracts from the State, and only one son can build a house on
32 theland . Renewalo f tenancyt oth e "continuing son"is ,i neffect , almost automatic.(Thi s tenurial system, which is based on the principle that land should be publicly owned and leased to farmers for 49 year terms, is in accordance with Biblical law. See Lev. 25, 8-13).Sub-tenancie s andregula remploymen to fpai dlabo rar ediscouraged .Th emember s are required, in addition, to pool resources for capital investment and act as mutual guarantors on capital borrowed by their cooperative societies, in which membership is mandatory. The problems arising from the mandatory cooperation framework will be discussed below. It should be emphasized, however, that one of the main roles of cooperation was to provide external scale economies, in order to rectify the difficulties of the imposed areal smallness. These difficulties are more severe than in most Western countries because the free transfer of landi slegall y prohibited, anda vacate dfar m unitcanno t be amalgamated with neighboring farms. Acceptance of new candidates must be approved, but in recent years approval was often granted toperson s whower e doing nomor e than "hobby farming" or even no farming at all.Th epenetratio n of non-farmers who seekcountr y homes suggests that, despite the rigid rules, the underlying socio-economic pressures for change are similar to those in many Western countries. Among the leaders of the settling organizations, which are the bodies governing the cooperatives on the national level (the organizations are affiliated with political movements), there is still strong sentiment against the gradual infusion of'non-farming into rural space. The economic logic behind this view has recently been offered by one of Israel's leading geographers, who argued that the high infrastructure costs of maintaining the sparsepopulatio n inrura l areas can bejustifie d only if settlement is vital there, i.e., for exploiting local resources (Amiran, 1987). Many of the early Zionist ideologists insisted, in fact, that farming had a social value of its own. They considered it asa mean sfo r reconstructing theoccupationa l composition of theJewis hpeople ,whic h was heavily based on service industries. The founders were strongly influenced, in addition, by socialist ideologies which stressed the importance of equitable resource distribution, cooperation, mutual help, and dependence on family labor. The various ideological influences resulted in the creation of the kibbutz (where all economic activities, including consumption, are communal) and themosha v (communal marketing and some communal production take place through local cooperatives. Land is equally distributed). The institutional structures of the kibbutz and the moshav were formed in the first quarter of the present century. When the State of Israel was established in 1948, the kibbutz was correctly regarded as having limited appeal for the majority of the immigrants (who doubled the population of Israel shortly after its establishment). The moshav, on the other hand, was seen as a suitable institutional type for settling the masses of migrants and refugees. These settlers were of diverse origins, and many of them did not share,o r even understand, the values of the moshav's founding generation. This was considered by the planners as a minor problem, which time and education would rectify. But this optimistic view has been proven, in most cases, wrong. The gap was never effectively closed. The rules of the moshav were not fully understood, and were often violated or ignored. Economic trends, particularly since the early 1980s (see below) widened the structural cracks which were created by the erosion of the rules. Technological and economic conditions, as well as social ones, have substantially changed since the 1950s. The strict rules of the moshav have not been altered, however. Thisinflexibilit y haspu tpressure ,eventually ,eve n on someo f thebes tmosha v members.
33 Paradoxically, the kibbutz had fewer difficulties withstanding pressures largely because its more rigid ideology requires careful selectivity of its membership. Thekibbut zprove dcapabl eo f adapting tone wdemands .I twen tthroug h an "industrial revolution", whoserelativ e success isexplaine d byeffectiv e leadership, ability to benefit from access to capital, and, not the least, the ability topoo l resources by establishing an industrial superstructure common to all the component movements, which provides external economies. The industrialization process started in the late 1950s. In the 1980s the kibbutz has even passed to the post- industrial age.Man y kibbutz members areno w professionals (accountants, programmers, managers) who provide services to urban clients.I n most of thekibbutzim , (pi.o f kibbutz ),however , fanning is still the backbone of the economy. (The economic crisis of the 1980s also hurt the kibbutz movement; see below). In the moshav, on the other hand, the economic organizations are still decentralized. Access to capital orknow-ho w is, therefore, more problematic. In the few cases where industries were introduced into moshavim there was a conflict between the interest of the moshav member as an independent producer, and his role as a manager, i.e. as a member of the managing cooperative. While the kibbutz presents, thus, an exceptional case in terms of rural industrialization processes, the moshav is not different from any other small rural settlement in this respect (Don, 1984; Bar-El et al., 1987).
Scale economies and holding size in the moshav
The basic problem of the moshav's family farm is over-extension of cooperation. The currentcrisis ,whos emajo r expression isth ehug eindebtednes s ofth emoshav' s members, developed as aresul t of special conditions.Th e attractive terms for borrowing during the period of high inflation of the early 1980s,wa s followed by an economic squeeze andb y high interest rates which left early borrowers unable to pay back the loans. A crisis of this nature, which arises from an uneven rise in input and output prices, is common in the farm sector of many countries. In Denmark a similar situation also evolved in the early 1980s (Bager, 1987). In Israel, however, the institutional structure has aggravated this situation because the farmers, whose membership in the cooperatives was compulsory, were also obligatory guarantors of the large sums invested by their cooperatives and their purchasing organizations. They found themselves, later, automatically in debt. The tendency of the organizations controlling the cooperatives to expand and to take on additional functions over and above those originally assigned to them has further accentuated the problem. The crisis led to widespread dissatisfaction and, eventually, to the crumbling of many cooperatives. The impact of the financial crisis on the kibbutz movement was also severe, mainly because it too, depended on a pooling of resources. Large and, often, speculative investments, coupled with declining prices, led to spiraling debts, as they did in the cooperative purchasing organizations of the moshavim. The kibbutz is adjusting itself to the new conditions by relaxing its communal principles. Indications, at this writing, are, however, that the kibbutzim will be better able to survive'the crisis. The current crisis has forced Israel's planners to consider revolutionary changes and even land reforms. In many moshavim membership in the cooperatives is already voluntary. The long-term impact of the failure of the cooperatives may be harmful to the small- sized Israeli family farm. Without the strong backing of the cooperative, the moshav farmer has a limited capacity to withstand market fluctuations and other economic forces. The circumstances of the early 1980s exposed the basic structural fragility of the
34 moshav. The heart of the problem is, indeed, a structural one, rather than the impact of a unique policy or of specific economic circumstances. It stems from the rigidity of the rules,an dparticularl y from therestriction simpose d onth esiz eo fth eindividua lholdings . It has tob e stressed that the term "family farm" is not necessarily equivalent to "small holder", even though size isregarde d by some authors,notabl y Vogeler (1981,p . 27),a s the main criterion for defining this concept. The disagreement over the definition accounts, partly, for the controversy about the ability of the family farm to survive in America. Vogeler believed that the size of the farm explains much of the variations in the economic value of the farm production. This led him to conclude that American family farming is a "myth"(Vogeler , 1981).Hart , on theothe r hand, stressed the element of family labor as most essential to the definition, and argued that family farming continues to be "persistent". He considered the existence of incorporation and other new institutional and managerial forms as insignificant, because they were used "just to keep [the farms] in the family". The problem, in his opinion, is concentrated in the lowest- incomefarms , i.e., those whose total sales arewort h less than 40,000 dollars.Th e family farm is a normal "business" concern and its economic viability is a function of the amount of cash sales, not of farm size. The latter can vary according to the cropping system. The size needed for generating 40,000 dollars ranges, thus, from 4 hectares, for tobacco, to about 130 hectares for wheat (Hart, 1987). The function of the holding size in conditioning cropping strategies is an essential element of Boserup's (1965) well known theory. She argued that reduced size under population pressure forced farmers to intensify. This is not the proper forum to review the wideliteratur e on this subject, but whatever the stand on Boserup's argument, it must be stressed that it can be upheld only where the farmer has no available options for off-farm income. In modern non-subsistence economies, reduced size often results in extensification, and smallness is, in fact, negatively related to intensity. Large holdings, likewise, do not necessarily imply extensiveness. In Britain it was found, thus, that "intensity, measured in Gross Margin per hectare, increases steadily with size of farm business" and that the "intensity of land use on the very smallest holdings may beonl y half that of larger-than-family farms" (Gasson, 1987, P-27) . These findings applied to dairy, livestock, and cropping farms. Even though the criterion for defining a family farm was smd (standard mandays) rather than holding size, these findings imply that smallness is consistently disadvantageous. The small farmer is also in an inferior position for taking advantage of Government-sponsored subsidy programs (Vogeler, 1981;Bower s & Cheshire, 1983; Gasson, 1987). The small farm has many drawbacks in terms of its ability to benefit from agrotechnical and management improvement (see e. g., Sturrock and Cathie, 1980, pp. 12-17). The relationship between land size and productivity is, however, complex. Farming in the urban shadow tends to exhibit the negative impact of scarce space for effective operations, but urbanization encourages also intensive production on small farms. Peri-urban farming is,i n fact, complex and there is a tendency for polarization of land uses (Sinclair, 1966; Gregor, 1979; Bryant, 1987; Bryant et al., 1989). Much of Israel is close to large urban centers. It exhibits, therefore, both the advantages and the disadvantages of its peri-urban conditions. The main problem facing the Israeli farmer is that, because he holds a small plot, whose size is prescribed, he must intensify. The number of alternative farm strategies available to him isrestricted . This puts a severe strain on farmers. They must select from strategieswhic hrequir eintensifyin g labor,capital ,o rknow-how .I nman ycase sthe yhav e
35 to combine all three. Farmers are encouraged to specialize mainly in science-oriented production. But crops of this kind are over- sensitive to price fluctuations. They have limited markets, and their cultivation requires great skill and constant updating. Not all farmers can be expected to fulfill these stringent requirements. A common survival strategyfo r thosewh ofai l tointensif y ispart - timefanning . Other possible strategies, which were identified in Britain among such farmers, are hobby farming, total withdrawal from fanning, investing family capital in varied businesses (farm as well as non-farm ones), or linking with non-agricultural companies (see e.g. Marsden et al., 1986). A study conducted in theWillamett e Valley,Oregon , suggests that the spread of hobby farming can harm commercial agriculture (Daniels, 1986).Thi s may be thecas ei n Israel too. Total withdrawal appears, however, to be more widespread. Uncultivated plots were found, in one moshav, to account for more than one-third of the "infields" (i.e. , the plots located in the back of the farm house, which the planners had allocated for the most intensive use). There were, in addition, many other inner plots which were not fully worked. The non-contiguous distribution of these neglected plots makes it difficult to sublet them to neighbors, though the practice of short-term sub-letting is quite common (long-term sub-letting arrangements are also contrary to moshav rules). The typical moshav part-timer under-uses his land. He has, most often, a small citrus orchard or a subtropical tree plantation on the inner plot or on part of it, and employs contracting companies to work it. His outer plot is sub-let to one of his neighbors. In many cases the cooperative society pools together to cultivate these plots. The full- time moshav farmer has to provide high labor inputs. Permanent paid labor is, therefore, common. This applies even to the capital intensive types.Th e dairy farms are among the few exceptions to this general observation (Applebaum & Margulis, 1985; Haruvi & Kislev, 1986.) The structural weakness of the cooperatives is partly explained by the increasing occurrence of part-time farming or withdrawal, on the one hand, and by the spread of specialized cropping on the other. As long as the moshav was based on mixed farming, as it was until the 1950s, the cooperative society provided vital services. Cooperation could function smoothly because all farms required similar services and marketing channels. The highly specialized crops require, however, special services. The diversification anddifferentiatio n trend reduced thefunctio n of cooperation, andthi s has undermined the most essential element which sets the moshav apart from other villages. The labor-intensive vegetable farmers were probably the first to by- pass the village cooperatives. Many of them,particularl y those of thepost-194 8 migration wave,ha dlo w resistance to the temptation of marketing their crop independently. The employment of low-cost labor is a violation of one of the major principles of the moshav, and undermines the very basis of the family farm. The farmers who adopt the simplest strategy, that of labor intensity, depend, in fact, for practically all manual work on paid workers. Such a farm may not fall within the definition pf "family farm", if the term applies to afar m which is managed and operated by 2-3 full-time persons only (see,e.g. , Hart, 1987; Gasson, 1987; Lamarche, 1987; Wilkening and Gilbert, 1987).
Conclusions
The problems facing the moshav are related to scale economies in two opposing ways. They stem, on the one hand, from emphasis on external economies of scale, i.e. from over-cooperation; ando nth eothe rhand ,fro m internaldiseconomie s associatedwit h small
36 scale. Both are inter-related. Insistence on providing external economies was meant, at least partly, to compensate for small scale.However , the rigidity of the system, which failed to adapt itself to changing conditions, made the cooperatives ineffective and non-functional. The small scale farmers responded either by specialization, or by "voting with their feet". In both cases the cooperative system was weakened. Theprevalen t type of the Israeli village (the moshav ) is now distinguished from other villages only by the rigid rule which prohibits the sub-division of holdings, and by insistence on equalization of land resources. These tenurial characteristics do not justify its consideration as a distinct type of settlement. Furthermore, one may question, on the basis of the material presentedhere ,th eappropriatenes s ofconsiderin g theIsrael imosha vmembe ra sa "family farmer".
37 CHANGES IN RURAL AREAS IN THE NETHERLANDS
Paulus P.P. Huigen and CR. Volkers
Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands
Abstract
Ruralareas in the Netherlands haveundergone extensive change sincethe fifties. Initially the change wasprimarily connectedto the modernizationof agriculture,which is the dominantfunction inrural areas. But recentchanges are more fundamental; thefunction of ruralareas in the nationalcontext is underreview. This shift wasprecipitated bythe rapid and drastic changesthat have been taking place throughoutthe highly urbanized societyof theNetherlands. This contributionfocuses on therelation between the general changesin society and the spatial organization ofactivities in rural areas, as manifested in the settlementpattern. This settlementpattern is the result of historical processess, having evolvedas part of a technological and organizational system of thepast. Social changehas causeda discrepancy betweenthe settlement pattern in ruralareas andthe technological and organizationalsystem of today.A description of recent changes in ruralareas isfollowed by a discussionof possible future developmentsand their impact on rural areas.
Keywords: rural areas, selective developments, settlement pattern, ruralization of manufacturing, future developments,functiona l specialisationo frura l areas,concentratio n of population, The Netherlands, Noordoostpolder.
Introduction: rural areas in the Netherlands
At the outset we must determine which areas we will consider asrural . For this purpose the country ispartitione d on aregiona l level into urban agglomerations, peri-urban areas, and extra-urban or rural areas (figure 1): - Urban agglomerations consist of continuous built-up areas of at least 50,000 inhabitants (pop. 1984). - Peri-urban areas lieinsid e thelabo r andhousin g market of urban agglomerations. The urban agglomerations and the peri-urban areas together form the city regions. - Extra-urban areas lie outside the housing- and labor-market areas of the urban agglomerations. These extra-urban areas constist of municipalities which have relatively weak or no relationships with urban agglomerations. Thirteen extra-urban areas have been identified; these constitute the rural areas in the Netherlands.
Figure 1 shows that most rural areas lie in the North and the East of the Netherlands. These areas are characterized by alo w population density, small villages, and a land use which is dominated by agriculture, nature, and/or outdoor recreation. Our description of recent demographic and economic changes in rural areas will concentrate on these 'peripheral' rural areas.
38 peripheral zone
11 '| 'YJ peri-urban areas \ city regions/
î&OQ Figure 1. Rural areas in the Netherlands Demographic and economic changes in rural areas Peripheral rural areas in the Netherlands are characterized by a pervasive out-migration of young people in response to the greater opportunities for higher education and employment in city regions. This trendi s notnew ; the same occurred in the fifties. Inth e sixties and seventies, in-migration from towns reversed the aggregate flows, and the population grew faster in rural areas than in city regions. In the eighties,déconcentratio n of population slowed down. The share of the Dutch population living in rural areas decreased, especially in peripheral rural areas (table 1). Table1 . Populationdistributio ni nth eNetherlands ,1970 ,1979 ,198 7 in % 1970 1979 1987 City regions 84.1 83.4 83.5 Urban agglomeration 58.0 54.3 53.2 Peri-urban areas 26.1 29.1 30.3 Rural areas 15.8 16.6 16.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Absolute(xlOOO ) 12,958 13,985 14,613 Source: CBS The year 1985 seems to be a breaking point (figure 2). Before 1985, the population in 39 rural areas grew faster than in the Netherlands as a whole and also faster than in the city regions. After 1985,th e population grew much faster in city regions than in rural areas. 105- + — the Netherlands — city regions •••• rural areas 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 years Source:CB S Figure2 .Populatio n growth incit y regions andrura l areasi nth eNetherland s (1979=100) This reversal had important regional effects. Comparison of the population growth in the period 1979 - 1981 (figure 3a) with that in 1985 - 1987 (figure 3b) reveals that in many rural areas the population trend reversed from a relative increase to a relative decrease. An absolute decline, depopulation, is no longer a strictly urban phenomenon. There is also evidence of population loss in peripheral rural areas. The spatial differentiation of population growth in the Netherlands is predominantly due to differences in migration. In the late seventies and early eighties most of the rural areas showed apositiv enet migratio n balance:mor epeopl ewer emovin gi nt orura l areas than moving out. A negative net migration balance has become common in peripheral rural areas. Notonl yha s thene tmigratio n balanceo frura l areaschanged , butth e age composition of the migrants has also been altered. In 1987 rural areas lost many more young people (aged 15t o2 4 years) and gained far fewer middle-agedpeopl e than in 1981.Thi s is quite the opposite in city regions. Employment After recovering from the recession that dominated the beginning of the eighties, employment in the Netherlands has increased from 309 employed persons per 1000 inhabitants in 1979 to 318 in 1985. The biggest increase occurred in the core zone, especially in the urban agglomerations of the Randstad. There is a clear tendency to 40 1979-1981 j relative growth (> 1.6) growth of the Netherlands = 1.6 1985-1987 e^ j absolute decline (< 0) IIIIHII relativedecline(0-1.12) Hü! relative growth (> 1.12) growth ofthe Netherlands = 1.12 Figure 3 Developments in regional differences: population growth 41 concentrateemploymen t withinth ecit yregions .Thes ecit yregion s alreadyha d animpor tant employment function, and their position has only become stronger. These changes in employment opportunities should be interpreted against the background of the sectoral shift in theDutc h economy. Employment in manufacturing is decreasing, whereas employment in service industries is increasing strongly (table 2). This sectoral shift has an important geographical impact. There is a tendency toward ruralization of manufacturing. In aggregate figures, employment in manufacturing is decreasing in the Netherlands, as in other Western countries (Healy and Ilbery 1985). Table 2. Employmenti nth e Netherlandsb y sector,197 9 and1985 , percentages sector Ï979 Ï985 Manufacturing 25.7 21.4 Services 58.4 64.8 Construction 9.3 7.6 Agriculture 6.6 6.3 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: CBS At the regional level, however, there is aconcentratio n of employment in manufacturing inrura l areas alongth eeaster nborde ro f theNetherland s (figure 4a).Th e growing service industry exhibits adifferen t regionalpatter n (figure 4b).Urba n agglomerations and cities are the predominant locations for the high-level service industries, although there are signs of déconcentration within the city regions. Employment in agriculture is relatively low. Even in peripheral rural areas only a minority of the labor force works in agriculture. The number of agricultural firms declined by more than 49,000 in the period 1970 - 1985.Employmen t opportunities in peripheral rural areas are scarce. This forces the inhabitants to choose between commuting over long distances or moving out of rural areas. Future developments Demographic developments andchangin g employment structures reflect the general state of social flux, i.e. the effects of a number of virtually uncontrollable 'megatrends' on society. What are the possible impacts of a changing society on rural areas? A number of closely interrelated economic developments are important for the future: economicgrowth ,internationalization , scaleenlargemen tan dspecialization .Thes emarke t developments are amplified by policy. In the Netherlands there are clear signs of a 'follow the market' philosophy and a desire to establish an international production environment, which can compete successfully with other European countries. This approach to growth will strengthen the concentration of economic activities in the highly urbanized core in the West of the Netherlands, and outside this core area in a few selected urban agglomerations (Lambooy 1988). At a lower spatial level we may expect a concentration of service employment in urban centers and large villages (Atzemae t al. 1987). Socio-culturalprocesse slik eindividualization ,emancipatio n andchange si nnorm san d values will exacerbate the concentration tendencies. Although these developments will affect each individual differently, they will be pervasive in the urban environment. 42 1985 Manufacturing <===* > 110 (TheNetherlands =100 ) 1985 Services (The Netherlands =100) Figure 4. Concentration of emploment in manufacturing (4a) and services (4b) 43 There, more opportunities in employment, education, services, and housing will emerge for an increasing parto f the population (Engelsdorp Gastelaars et al. 1987). Also new technology like telematics, which in theory should evoke déconcentration, willenhanc eth econcentratio ntendencies .High-tec h businessstil linvolve sth ehigh-touc h of personal contact that can befoun d in highly urbanized areas.Thi s is even the case for agricultural high-tech business. Automation and robotization will lead to diminishing employment in industries with mostly routine activities. This might be a problem for peripheral rural areas that are characterized by ahig h proportion of employment in rou tine jobs (Van der Mark et al. 1988). For rural areas, developments in agricultural technology are important. These developments seem to result in rising productivity. In view of the ensuing surpluses, land willprobabl y be taken out of production, which will createpossibilitie s for otherlan duse s (recreation,nature) .Th eoveral l employment effect will be that the number ofjob s in agriculture will drop further. Policies of spreading growth and activities over the national territory to prevent or diminish regional disparities have been discarded. A policy has been formulated on the principle of 'follow themarket' , which means stimulatingth e already 'strong' areas.Thi s policy involves designating the ring of cities in the West of the Netherlands (called the central city ring) and a few selected urban centers (called urban nodes) in theres t of the country as concentration areas for economic activities, population and housing. Other regions would have to develop on the basis of their own potential (see figure 5). These trends and changes have consequences for the residential, employment, and servicefunction s ofrura l areas.The y inducedemographi c developments characterized by concentration and a sorting out of households, as various studies demonstrate (Kersloot & Thissen 1986,D e Bruin et al. 1989). Selective developments Recent developments in population, services, housing, and employment reinforce the already dominant position of the West of the Netherlands. On a regional level, there is a concentration of activities in the urban areas, especially in the urban agglomerations. The socio-spatial organization in rural areas seems to become more and more involved in, andincreasingl y dependent upon,th eactivitie si n theWes to f the Netherlands and the urban areas in the other regions (Huigen et al 1989). Scale enlargement and specialization are the main features of these socio-spatial developments, and these processes engender a selective development of rural areas.Thi s means that there will be a functional specialization of rural areas, a de-mixing of functions, whichwil l affect thepositio n of arura l area inDutc h society. Somerura l areas will lose functions without strengthening remaining ones, whereas other rural areas will see a reinforcement of some functions. The location of rural areas with respect to the Dutch central zone and theurba n nodes in the rest of the country are important determinants in, this process. Also the at tractiveness of the residential environment and possibly the potential for recreation and tourism play an important role. These variables will determine to a large extent whether developments like out-migration (especially of young people), relative decline of employment in promising branches of the economy, and the disappearance of services from rural areas will continue. 44 villages ( 10.000 inhabitants) f=^ cities( 10.000inhabitants ) urban agglomerations o selectedurba nknot s development area in the North ofth e Netherlands CentralCit yRin g positiveevaluatio n living environment watersport areas accessibility problems areaso f primary attention areaso fsecondar y attention Source: Huigen,va n derVelde n en Volkers, 1989 Figure 5. Vulnerability of rural areas in the Netherlands 45 The function of rural areas in the national context is under review. With respect to the selective development of rural areas, three types of rural areas can be discerned: 1. Rural areas within the sphere of influence of the Dutch central zone or urban nodeshave agoo d chance of maintaining orregainin g functions. The function of these areas will probably change (the residential function will become dominant). Depopulation, with its concomitant negative effects on rural services,i s not expected. 2. Some rural areas lying outside the sphere of influence of the Dutch core area have an attractive residential environment and/or the potential to develop recreation and tourism. For those areas compensation may be expected for the loss of functions. 3. Other rural areas will show a loss of population, employment and services. Some of these regions may be able to become specialized agricultural areas. Nevertheless, employment and services in these areas will decline. Therura l areas without any form of compensation for the loss of functions will require special attention. The selective developments can create vulnerable situations in specific rural areas and settlements. Acontinuatio n of these developments may threaten the liveability, and rural deprivation may arise. On the basis of a set of indicators, we argue that the rural areas in the North of the Netherlands in particular are highly vulnerable and deserve special attention in the future (figure 5). The case of the Noordoostpolder The actual changes in peripheral rural areas at a lower level are illustrated by the case of the Noordoostpolder, a rural area that is part of the Zuiderzee reclamation works. Ever since the Noordoostpolder has been under cultivation, numerous developments have caused the functions of the villages to change (Constandse 1972,Dut t et al. 1985). A population loss (up to 15%) has been recorded for most of the villages in the Noordoostpolder (table 3). Table 3.Noordoostpolde r settlements: population 1987 and growth indexes 1981-1987 Settlements Village Index Bant 631 93 Creil 637 85 Ens 1626 104 Espel 684 90 Kraggenburg 637 91 Luttelgeest 613 89 Marknesse 2234 103 Nagele 936 88 Rutten 574 90 Tollebeek 587 103 Emmeloord 19374 105 Dispersed farms 9264 97 Noordoostpolder 37797 100.5 Source: De Bruin, Huigen & Volkers 1989 The migration pattern of 1987 (figure 6) is characteristic for the population movement throughout the eighties, when the Noordoostpolder was undergoing a hierarchical 46 migration leak. This led to concentration in the larger villages and in the town of Emmeloord. From anationa lperspective , the Noordoostpolder lost population to theres t of the Netherlands. The natural population growth which compensates for this negative migration balance is slowing down. The aging of the population and its decline in size have become increasingly common chararcteristics of the villages and their surrounding rural areas. AOS = Areas outside settlements V = Villages E = Emmeloord NL = the Netherlands 81 = Number of persons Source: Bruinetal 1989 Figure 6. The migration leak of the Noordoost polder during the eighties The process of concentration is still going on and there is no reason to believe this situation will alter. - Employment in theNoordoostpolde r is stagnating. Agriculture is nolonge r themai n employer in the polder, although many industries located there are related to agriculture. Employment in growth sectors is rare and is concentrated in Emmeloord. The location of the Noordoostpolder is not attractive to non-agricultural firms. Not lying within the economic center of the Netherlands, nor within its sphere of influence, thepolde r has the image of being a peripheral area. - The residential function of the region suffers from a peripheral image as well. It is too far away to play a role as a residential area for the central urban zone, and commuting is discouraged by the lack of a railway. The region also has to cope with an image of being less attractive as a residential area: it was designed as a modern agricultural area: its infrastructure is very functional, with straight lines and open fields; environmental interests were almost non-existent at the time the area was developed. - The increasing availability of means of transportation (cars) has led to a scale enlargement in the spatial behavioro f theinhabitant s of theNoordoostpolder . A growing number of people are no longer necessarily oriented toward the services or the social life in their villages. The central town of Emmeloord has become the one and only service center for the Noordoostpolder. Together with enlargement of scale in the service sector and the cutbacks in government spending, this has caused growing pressure on both commercial and public services in the villages. In rural areas older than the Noordoostpolder traditional functions have disappeared as well.Whe n these areas are tooperiphera l to lie in the sphere of influence of the main urban centers,i ti sdifficul t todevelo p compensating functions. Remaining functions tend 47 to be concentrated in a few centers. Many small villages may retain their residential function, but in less attractive regions even this function might be threatened. Planning for selective change Recent changes are strengthening the already dominant position of the highly urbanized western part of the Netherlands in the national context. At the regional level, there is a trendtowar dconcentratio no fpopulation ,housing ,an deconomi c activitiesi ncit yregions . An exploration of the future trends shows a selective development or sorting out of rural areas. In our opinion this means that a policy of general rural development, to combat thetrend so f scaleenlargemen t andconcentration , isinadequate .Som erura l areas - and at a lower level, some small villages -jus t do not have thepotentia l to adapt to the changes in society atlarge .Th e settlement pattern inrura l areasemerge d in asmall-scale , traditional agricultural society; when a rural area becomes part of the modern urbanized world, its functions, and especially its settlement pattern, comes under review. What seems to be needed is a realistic policy based on the development potential of rural areas and villages. Those with little or no potential warrant special attention, since groups of inhabitants may become relatively deprived of opportunities. In such cases, special measures have tob etake n toensur e serviceprovisio n for the inhabitants that stay behind. We do not recommend a forced economic development of peripheral areas, but the maintenance of an acceptable residential environment and measures to increase accessibility. 48 THE ACCESSIBILITY OF A REGION; CAN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES BE OFHEL PI N DEVELOPMENT Heikki Jussila University of Oulu, Research Institute of Northern Finland, Linnanmaa, Finland. Abstract Thekey question of survival for ruralregions distant from majorcentres is accessibility. The expansionof the use of information technologyhas been one of the most common modelsfor creatingbetter accessibility to therural people. Thistechnology is, however, usable only if the localpopulation shows enough interestfor the use of new business ideas. Consulting and producing high-quality products, that need special skills and information are possible in these marginal regions, but what are the underlying conditionsfor them? This paper examines the role of education in enhancing more information basedrural occupations inthe provinces of Oulu, Laplandand Uusimaa. An assessmentof therole of the university of Ouluis alsomade. The empiricalmaterial of the paper deals with college or higher education which describes peoples' the possibilities to use information systemsto enhancetheir daily life. Keywords: accessibility, information society, regional policy, Finland, college or higher education. Introduction The dynamic element is regarded as possessing an inherent value of its own in all development, thus research into material and intellectual progress in society lays considerable stress upon thedynamis m implied in the diffusion of thoughts andidea san d makes references to innovations and their role in this progress.Th e dynamic element has been considered as aprimar y issue in disciplines which examine man's behaviour ando f social, economic and regional aspects of his endeavours. This paper uses the spatial and social scope of development, which has in economic terms been enabled by the creation and adoption of innovations (Graham & Senge, 1982, 317-343) and in social terms by learning (Marchetti, 1981, 267-282). In general terms education and the ability to use knowledge combined together belong to the sources that have acted as a stimulus in the society's development pattern. The importance of information in society makes the many-faced problems of usage of information vital for regional development in an innovation development context. Changes in economic and social life have today a special meaning for rural regions. The "lack" of industrial and entrepreneurial history (in today's meaning) as a reason for thedifficultie s of rural andperiphera l regions of Finland in general topenetrat e intone w "regions" of economic activities. This "lack" is in many cases due to the dominance of forestry, that with a high degree of "security" has made people passive and unwilling to respond to new innovations. This "security" feeling has thus been "an obstacle" for the introduction of preset information, education and entrepreneurial based development so 49 common in rural Finland today. Development projects ofentrepreneuria l character have in many instances an "outsider's" view to localdevelopmen t andthi si s the link between information andproduction . Thepurpos e ofregiona ldevelopmen t efforts ist onarro w the "gap" between local andoutside r views andperception s of "good" and beneficial development for peripheral regions. Purpose material and methods The aim of thispape r is toexamin e thechang e of accessibility in Northern Finland. This is done via a discussion ofeducation' s role in this development. College educationi s used as the empirical measurement for the possibilities tous e and adopt new industries in theadministrativ e provinces of Lapland, Oulu andUusimaa , which is used as a reference forth e other two provinces (Fig 1.).Th e empirical material of the levelo f education used, is from the Census of Finland. Theeducatio n figures for different communes show theamoun t of people over theag e of 15havin g college or higher education.Excep t someearlie rfindings fro m the administrative provinceo f Oulu (Jussila 1988a) the census data on education and economic and social development from years of 1970 and 1985i suse d as empirical material. Norway i* ^vv F12 = Lappi \ F12 S F11 - Oulu F10 - Vaasa F9 = Keski-Suomi 1 Rovanîemi . F8 = Kuopio F7 = Pohjois-Karjala F6 = Mikkeli # F5 « Kymi F4 « Hämo } $• 1 F3 = Aland r- Soviet F2 =Turk u & Pori ] Union F1 = Uusimaa } ^L. F11 ~1 J Oulu Sweden i F3 / r JT"^ • i \ -r p-i^Fi _}_/ 0 200 km ^° °^V ) f*i^J&BËHelsink i s, Figure 1.Locatio n ofal l Finnish provinces and the provincial capitals of Lapland, Oulu and Uusimaa. 50 The basic method used for the regional education level analysis is location quotient (=LQ) analysis (see Mayer & Pleeter 1975, 343-355). The reason for using LQ as he measure of regional importance is the work done at the Research Institute of Northern Finland (=RINF). In the regional development research program of RINF LQ is been tested as a possible tool giving both qualitative and quantitative information of local status for planning and local decision making. Changes in occupations in Finland Modernization has changed theoccupationa l characteristics inFinland , from farming and forestry with only some representatives of other industries to a services based economy (Häkkilä, 1985).Thi s change has been a stimulus to social 'upheaval' in local economic and social development. The modernization of rural life in Finland is linked with urbanization which has been the main trend of development for the past 30 years and today it is possible to speak of an urbanized countryside in all Nordic countries (Johannisson et al., 1989). This process of urbanizing has influenced both economic and social spheres of life and created a need to recruit people to newjobs . This can be seen from the growth of service employment from 508000 or 25,7% of the total labour-force in 1950 to 1,13 million or 53,1% in 1980 and to over 1,7 million or some 60% in 1985. The growth of service sector has been an important reason for the concentration of population inFinland . According to Alestalo (1983) in 1980 a half of those employed in tertiary sectorlive d incommune s which made uponl y 1,5% of thecommune s of Finland. These communes accounted for amer e 0,97% of the total land area and 16%o f all those employed in the tertiary sector lived in the city of Helsinki. The economic power in Finland has always been in the southern and south-western parts,bu t the development in the 1960's has diminished the size of the "activity Finland". In this connection it is possible to speak of development policies that have aimed at greater uniformity and thus been a reason for a powerful change and concentration. Level of education and local development potential The rise in the basic educational level has gradually shifted into a demand for basic vocational education as a qualification for ajo b at the labour-market. At the same time the concentration of expansive high-tech sector to the southern Finland and to bigger cities (Fig. 2) is a problem for economic development in the northern and northeastern parts of Finland. The concentration is a problem not only from economic, but also from intellectual point of view as the skilled educated labour has a higher propensity to migrate, which hinders the creation of intellectual growth agglomerations in the rural regions and reduces the general level of education compared with that of the whole of Finland. In 1985 out of the some 0,5 million people of the province of Uusimaa that had a higher than basic education more than a quarter (27%) had a university degree. In the province of Oulu the corresponding figure was 14% and in Northern Ostrobothnia 17% (17220 people), that made about 80% of all university graduates of the province of Oulu and even this was under the national average of 18%.Th e low educational level can also be seen in the industrial firms of the province of Oulu, as in 72% of firms investigated did not have at all employees with university education (see Jussila 1988a). The "newindustries" ,however ,requir epersonne l withbot hgoo dskil lan dhig h formal, 51 Oulu-region / - University ' - StateTechnica l Research Centre - Technology park - Electronic Industry - Pharmaceutical andchemica l industry / Jyväskylä-region ' - University - State Technical Research Centre - Paper machine production - Datatechnolige s and software - *f~^ a j r^ *^. •^ Tampere-region - University and Techical University - State Technical Research Centre - Technology park - Hightech metal industry 200k m Turku-region ^±mê^ —_zJL - University and Techical University \ - School of Business Economics \ - Electronic Industry \ - Pharmaceutical andchemica l industry Resident population in 1985(aa e15-64 1 N % Helsinki-region -whol e Finland 3344565 100.0 - University and Techical University - Helsinki-region 614760 18.4 - StateTechnica l Research Centre - Turku-region 156159 4.7 - School of Business Economics - Tampere-region 125858 3.6 - Technology park -Oulu-regio n 95608 2.9 - Electronic Industry - Jyväskylä-region 63622 1.9 - Industrial research laboratories Figure 2. The "High-tech Finland", high-tech information centres in Finland; the one perspective view. preferably technical or science oriented education, which is available in "abundance" in northern Finland only at the university of Oulu. The influence of the university is today quite strong, but it took some 25 years before the university began to have significant influence in the area. The influence today is the most profound at Oulu-region (Fig. 3), but especially the supplementary education centre has been widening the educational "reach" of the university to rural peripheries. Figure 3 indicates the quite dramatic change that has taken,place in the relative and also absolute figures concerning theleve lo feducation .I nth e early 1970'sth ehighes t quartile started from the percentage of 1,44, which in 1985 was the staring point for the second highest group. At the municipality level the second quartile (Fig 3D) has gained in importance, which indicates a slight shift towards a better overall educational status in Northern Finland, which isa clea rindicatio n of theimprovemen t in the levelo f education in Northern Finland as a whole. The image of educational equality changes substantially if the province of Uusimaa is taken into the picture. Out of the 113 communes used in the investigation the 52 Valueso f197 0 Valueso f 19 Percentagelimit s (basedo n197 0division ) • 0.15- 0.61 0 0.61 - 0. mi 0.88- 1.44 H 1.45- 3.25 H 3.25- 15.00 30 .Q- High 1970 VA Q 1970 25 1.5- -6- High 1985 V. 0 1985 20 15 0.5- 10 X 5 ^ -0.5- 1 1 1 0 ! Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Figure 3. University education among thepopulatio n of Northern Finland. (A)value s of 1970, (B) values of 1985, (C) change in relative importance between 1970-1985, (D) the number of municipalities in different quartiles in 1970an d 1985. overwhelming majority of people having university education lived in the province of Uusimaa. Out of communes belonging to the highest quartile almost 73% situated in the province of Uusimaa (Table 1). In 1985 more than 55% of people with post-graduate degrees lived in the province of Uusimaa and Helsinki area alone made over 50%o f all people with a post-graduate degree. The share of the province of Oulu was in 19857 % or 781 persons (Statistical Report KO 1987:7). 53 T Table 1. The quartile division of communes by relative proportion of university educated people in the commune at the provinces of Lapland, Oulu and Uusimaa in 1985. Quartileclass Lapland Oulu Uusimaa upper limit % N % N % N -1.5 % (a few) 9.1 2 36.5 19 18.0 7 -2.0 % (under med) 36.4 8 36.5 19 2.5 1 -3.5 % (above med) 45.5 10 15.4 82 5.6 10 -26.3% (many) 9.1 2 11.5 6 53.9 21 Total 100.0 22 100.0 52 100.0 39 From regionaldevelopmen t point of viewpeopl e having "high-level education" (13year s or more) are perhaps more important than university graduates. On province level the northern provinces of Oulu with 6,4% (21284 people) and Lapland with 5,7% (8963 people) remain below the national average that was in 1985 8,2% of people above 15 yearso f age.Th edominanc e ofHelsink i arearemaine d alsofo r this category and in there more than 16% of people above 15 years of age had in 1985 education that could be classified as "high-level education". The table above represents only one side of the educational field, but from regional perspective it gives an "accurate" image of the relations between the "south" and the "north" in respect with the level of education among people. In southern Finland also in rural surroundings thepossibilitie s for "newindustries "ar ebette r than in thenorth , where concentration of highly skilled people is perhaps even more profound than in the south. The development is in any case turning towards information based industry also in the north, but not with so much of "own" people than with the help of an "outsider" who is willing to move to the area. The role of universities in enabling this migration of "outsiders" can in the future become even more important than iti s today.Th ereaso n for university's significant role is that it is a way of narrowing the accessibility gap between "world centres of knowledge" and the surrounding rural areas.Th e use of university with an effective way is thus of great importance if one is aiming at introducing information industries to rural regions. This can clearly be seen in a study made by Sundin & Wiberg (1989), which clearly demonstrates the needs of using universities as a resource base for regional development. The ideas of computer cottages (see Wiberg 1986) is also quite heavily dependento n theeas y accesst o auniversit y andth erol eo frelativ e accessibility becomes more and more important. In this connection the access in time units becomes more important than the real physical distance and the words of Benjamin Franklin: "Time is money", have today become a real time fact. Theris e in educational level and also the diminishing distance of different regions has been changingth e social andmenta l climateo f Northern Finland. Tothi s climate belongs the high appreciation of practical skills, which by no means is a negative indication of the willingness to get education and practical training. The different program directed towards entrepreneurs show clearly that there is a genuine desire to learn and find new ways andform s of employment anddevelopmen t in Northern Finland. In addition tothis , local initiatives are encouraged so that even in business terms inexperienced individuals can with the help of training avoid the fear of criticism evoked by failure socommo n to the people of the North. Thecontinuou s movement towards service society anddespit eth eregiona lpattern s the rising educational level in all fields of training do give some promising insight for the 54 future. In educational level the change has been quite important. In the beginning of the 1970's the minimum for LMLE (= lower middle level education) for the municipalities of Oulu,Laplan d andUusima a was 5,9 %bu ti n theyea r 1985th ecorrespondin g figures hadrise n to 8,4 %an d the maximum hadrise n from 17,9%t o 31,6%calculate d from the commune's population over 15-years of age. This growth becomes even more apparent when the comparison is been made by the help of LQ-figures given in table 2. Table 2. TheLQ-figure sfo rUppe rMiddl eLeve lEducatio nfo rth eyear s197 0an d198 5 andth egrowt hi n the quartile-level between 1970-1985. Year Min. Ql Med. Q2 Max 1970 0.174 0.417 0.561 0.744 2.648 1985 0.443 0.602 0.704 0.924 1.924 change % (70-85) +154.5 +44.4 +25.5 +24.2 -27.3 The general impression from the table 2i son e of anequalizin g educational level. The perhaps most important outcome of this trend is the earlier mentioned distance re-evaluation, which brings also the more distant areas into more direct connection with new ideas and modes of production and development (see Jussila 1988b, 1989). Thene w ideas that do emerge from rural surroundings have much to thankfo r today's ever higher level of education. The rise in the highest categories of educational level is important, but as the earlier studies have proved the more 'Down to Earth', practical education is usually preferred by the great public. The quality of this education has risen and it is probable that the middle level education is going to be the key for further prosperity in rural regions of Northern Finland. The higher standards make it quite possible to narrow the gap between the 'have's and have not's' of rural regions. The accessibility of a region is the key and in this the role of local centre as a place of information gathering with its skilled labour has a new and a more versatile role. At the same time it is possible to build gradually interaction chains that will help bringing in new innovations, which otherwise would probably reach the most remote areas too late.Hig h level of local education is in this situation a vital factor, as through education it is possible to answer to the questions put forward by the rapidly expanding and changing industrial community. In this case an open attitude towards education is a likely answer, so thateducatio n is able to meet the ever growing needs of society. In this way education is surely supporting the overall aim of building an industrial base that is and will in future be competitive in both regional, national and international scales, though rising educational level tends to increase the people's propensity to migrate from one place to another. If the aim is to build information industries this danger must, however, be taken if one looks for the benefit of the wholeregio n notjus t one commune or commune group (see Karjalainen 1989). Conclusions, a new information space development? The new production methods are both a threat and a promise (Wiberg, 1986,70-74) and especially the information industries have in principle both concentrating and dispersing effects. The possibilities for dispersing can, however, be effective only if a conscious effort is made to impose these practices to sparsely populated areas (Nilsson & Wiberg, 1987). In this respect the isolation of marginal areas is an obstacle in the same way as 55 the dependence on traditions, or lack of experience in accepting new thoughts, and especially the migration of the young well educated people. In the present rapid social and economic change one, however, needs to have more contacts in order to get the necessary information about new ways and modes of production. In Finland the process of dispersing of job opportunities is, however, under investigation both within local communities and at the national level through a special rural development project of the ministry of interior's regional policy department and other organizations responsible for local and regional development. The possibility to use communication networks and the ability to gather information is of prime interest. People in marginal areas must form, even small intellectual, agglomerations, in order to have some possibilities to rule and govern today's patterns of development. This is important as modernization increases the importance of location factors measured in time-units not in physical distance. This also changes the contact patterns and "contact fields" of both individuals and regions. In "traditional" industrial society contacts to the near-by centres and markets where the most important ones, but the "immaterial"natur eo finformatio n asa produc ti nha schange d this.Th e technological development of communication methods has given to distance a new dimension that is time dependable. This time dependent distance is mostly independent form physical distance and this makes the building of multidimensional contact fields and information space a key item for regional development. In order to gain the benefits of this "new" time dependent distance it is, however, necessary the "intellectual" agglomerations mentioned above. These agglomerations should then be equipped with the means and skills to "produce", use and transfer information to peripheral areas in a country. Contacts are a resource to gain strength for future as external impulses are important for thedevelopmen t ofloca lcommunities ,i f theyar e aiming atmakin gconsciou s cultural choices andi n practice this means anope n environment. In asociet y with high frequency of contacts outside community education is an important integral part of the future development and crucial for the development of Northern Finland. The ability to follow the trends of development in both science and society/industry, is a source of power to any region but particularly to a marginal region where the need of being the best is a must not just a possibility. In the future development an adoption of a new innovation depends, however, on a person, who at the same time is the promoter and obstacle of both economic and social development of the society. This in turn favours communities, which have been able to gear their activity profiles towards an open development. The openness of theeconomi c and socialdevelopmen t together with anextensiv eprogra m of education isfo r theNorther n Finland ast oothe r marginal areas theonl y way.Th ereaso n for this is the expansive network nature of intellectual economy. High-quality productioni spossibl ei n allregions .I f information oriented society isth e aim,i t must beremembere d that information society isa doubl e blade sword that without strong regional policy will lead to development in and concentration to areas more suitablefo r theneed s ofinformatio n industries.Informatio n oriented society development is,despit e itsnegativ eeffect s thefuture . Information economies dodiminis h the distance gap and build new routes for accessibility. For regional policy and regional research the future task is to re-built the image of distance, since the concept of periphery is applicable to almost any region. The question is then to build the image in new way and link also some of the rural regions to the national network of information centres and if this is successful then also the new post-industrial image of accessibility is likely to be re-build in the northern and northeastern parts of Finland and in Nordic countries in general. 56 SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TELEMATICS IN HUNGARY Tibor Tiner* and CR. Volkers"1" Geography Department, Hungarian Acadamy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary + Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands Abstract In the beginning, the introduction of modern telecommunicationswas regarded as a panaceafor rural regionaldevelopment. This view hasproved to be too optimistic,as experiencesin Western countries show. In Hungary, thetelecommunications infrastructure was neglegted for decades. Only recently have the first steps been taken towards developing a modern information system. There are considerable differences among regions and settlements in the levelof telecommunications in Hungary.Budapest plays a dominant role in operating high quality informationsystems. Small towns andrural areasplay amarginal role. Since the collapse of thecommunist regime,the introduction of modern telematicsis highon thepriority list. Rural areas will no doubtbenefit from this development,although theproblem of regionalinequality will not be resolved. Keywords: telecommunication, regional inequality, Hungary. Introduction Although technological achievements inComeco n countries sometimes reach highlevels , thepolitica l system has for many years inmposed a very selective way of applying these achievements. This is alsoth e case with telecommunications. In Hungary, modern means of telecommunication do exist, but developments in this field are very new. This is not surprising,considerin g thateve nth etraditiona ltelecommunicatio n networkstil lha sman y deficiencies (note 1). An interesting subject for geographers and planners is the spatial effect of the introduction of modern telematics, in particular with respect to the problem of regional inequality. How has telematics influenced the peripheral areas in a communist plan economy ? Is this very different from the impact of telematics in a Western market economy ? After a short review of the introduction of telematics in Western countries, we will consider the developments inHungary :first , the traditional means of telecommunication, then modern telematics. Some concluding remarks on the latest developments will be made in the last section. Telecommunication and regional inequality In 1978,th eFrenc h authorsNor a andMin eintroduce dth eide ao f "telematica" (Nora and Mine, 1978). The merging of the words telecommunication and informatica can be regarded as the beginning of a new era in the world of information technology. 57 In the beginning, the ideas on the spatial possibilities of telematics for peripheral areas were exclusively positive: "interaction substitution" and thedecreasin g effect of distance would certainly help minimize regional inequality. This view, however, proved to be too optimistic. The possibilities of telematics as an answer to regional isolation are recognized, but in an economic sense there is a growing conviction that telematics will consolidate regional inequality (Gillespie, 1987). The basic conditions for the development of modern telecommunication activities areb y far the most favorable in the economically most advanced regions: these regions exert the greatest demand for information, contain the largest concentration of technological and economic know-how, and have the largest capital-investment potential (Verschure, 1986). If regional inequality isregarde d as a social problem, governments (on the national as well as the supra-national level) will have to monitor developments in telematics. Intervention, for example by means of "telematics investment programs", may help to narrow the gap between core and periphery. In the western world, however, a "follow the market" attitude increasingly dominates the political scene. Deregulation and privatization of postal and telecommunication services, as for instance in Britain and the Netherlands, are characteristic for this development. Afurthe r concentration of economic activities in the "strong"region s isth e most probable trend for the future (Goddard and Gillespie, 1986). The level of telecommunications of a country generally depends on its economic and infrastructural development. In the developed countries of Western Europe, theUS A and Japan,th ebasi ctechnique s ofinformatio n exchange (telephonean dtelex )an d information services (radio, television) were in place by the late fifties or early sixties. Later these "traditional" telecommunication networks served as a basis for telematics. The spread of telematics has been very rapid. In the Netherlands, the use of telefax, datanet, viditel and teletext increases every year, with high percentages of private as well as institutional users. Besides, the use of the traditional telephone continues to rise and new applications -e.g . thecar-phon e- ar eemergin grapidly . Theus eo f traditional means ofcommunicatio n liketelegrap h andtele x isdiminishin g though (PTTjaarverslag , 1988). In Eastern Europe this process has taken place in a different way. After the Second World War, the economic policy of the socialist countries neglected the development of linear infrastructure, considering this a non-productive sector of the economy. Thus, telecommunication networks developed very slowly in this region, and basic telecommunication systems with acceptable quantity and quality have still not been fully developed in these countries. Only in theearl y eighties did theyrealiz e the importance of infrastructure in intensive economic development. A few of these countries are currently trying to do something about their communication disadvantages, despite their deep economic and social crisis and their debts to Western states and banks. These obstacles make any efforts very difficult; theconstructio n ofmoder nan deffectiv e information systemsi stherefor e largely dependent on foreign economic help. Telecommunications in Hungary Onlyrecentl y hasHungar y attempted todevelop e amoder n information network tocove r the whole country. This is a very slowprocess , asth etechnica l development of theHun garian infrastructure is far below the level desired. First of all, this is the result of the negligence of transport and telecommunications infrastructure for decades. Secondly, the monopoly of the Hungarian Postal Service in 58 transmission of public information and the supervision of mass media - together with the overconcentration and the strict hierarchical management of its administrative system - still hinders the creation of a market-oriented information network in the country. An impression of the level of telecommunications in 1988 compared to the Netherlands is given in Table 1: Table 1. Telecommunications in Hungary and the Netherlands, 1988 Hungary Netherlands inhabitants in millions 10 14 telephone connections per 100 inn. 14.3 46.1 number of telegrams per 1000 inn. 1100 47 data transmission connections 2000 8300 total number of telefaxes 500 200,000* cable television connections ... 619,000 satellite receivers 215,000 ? viditel ... 25,000 * sold by national telecom company only; real estimated number is about 400,000 The traditional communication systems A major obstacle to the development of telematics in Hungary is the deficient network for traditional telecommunication. The development of telephone services has fallen below the levels of national economic development and public expectations. Only 15%o f local main exchanges are automated, the others areoperate d manually. Mosto f them havelimite d hours of service. Direct long-distance dialling only came into general use after 1970; by 1988, 848 settlements (=26%) wereconnecte d into thelong-distanc ediallin g network.Amon g these only 353 settlements (=11%) are connected to the international automated network. At present domestic long- distance calls are possible from roughly 640,000 telephone connections (=84%), and 430,000 telephones are connected to the direct international network (61%). There is considerable inequality in the regional distribution of the long distance dialling network:35 % isconcentrate d inBudapes t (twomillio ninhabitants) ,an dles stha n 6% is found in the villages. Besides Budapest, larger cities like Szeged, Gy"or, Pecs, Miskolc and Debrecen are also relatively well supplied, as are the county seats and the tourist region around lake Balaton. For half of the Hungarian population, however, long-distance dialling is problematic (Figure 1). Theposta l telegram network has been automated since 1967,bu tonl y 10%o f thepos t offices are connected to the network. Telegram use in Hungary is among the highest in Europe because of the lack of private telephones. The situation for broadcasting services, which also belong to the Hungarian Postal Services is better. The transmission network broadcasts three nation-wide and five regional programs over the Hungarian radio and two nation-wide programs over the Hungarian television. Thereha s been amarke d increase in the useo f CBradi otransmitter s (battery-operated walkie-talkies). Hungary was unique among socialist countries in that private posession ofCB-radio-transmitter s wasallowed .Businesse san dauthoritie shav eha dDB-radi osinc e 59 the early seventies, private use has been allowed since 1980. It is a limited- range alternative for people who have no telephone at home; one has to wait several years for a telephone. Between 1980 and 1988th e number of private CB setsi n use has risen from 5,000t o 47,000.Man y CBradio s are located in cars; mainly the private taxi enterprises have Figure 1. Automated long-distance dialling, 1988. equipped their cars with CB sets. All the CB radios were imported from developed countries (mainly from Austria and West Germany), because there were not produced in Eastern Europe for private use. Modern telecommunications systems Modern telecommunications systems appeared in Hungary only a few years ago. Some of these have become of importance, others, such as videotex or minitex, are still in an experimental phase. Data transmission and telefax have recently been introduced. In 1988, 2000 data transmission stations were in operation in enterprises and institutes. Only about 500telefa x machines werei noperatio n in 1988, 63% of themi n Budapest. Among the main users are the banks,wit h anetwor k thatreache s intoth e rural areas,an d industrial firms. There was no telefax equipment in private possession. Commercial companies, transport and agricultural enterprises do not play an important role in telefax systems.Apar t from Budapest, the users aremainl y concentrated in thelarges t towns and the county seats.Th e few that are to be found in the rural areas are in places connected to larger towns and Budapest through numerous administrative links, an aspect of centralized economic management (Figure 2). The combination of modern telecommunication equipment and television presents a different picture. Anon-stopteletext service was started by the Hungarian Television in 1982 and can be received all over the country. Since february 1989, 600 pages with information can be received by about 150,000 TV sets equipped with special decoders. An estimated 45% of these are located in Budapest Therei sa striking increasei nth enumbe ro f satellitereceivers .Officiall y theseexis t since 60 December 1987,whe n the Hungarian Postal Service supervised the number of receivers. With a special parabolic reflector, three foreign TV channels (Sky, Super and TV-5) could be received in 1988. Despite the relatively high cost (160,000 Forint, whichi s roughly US $2500,- ) 200,000 Hungarian households already had asatellit e receiver at their disposal. The users areoblige d to pay a feefo r receiving satellite programs. According toestimate s the number of illegal users was between 10,000 and 15,000 households, mainly in the capital.Lik e telefax, satellite receivers are concentrated almost entirely in Budapest and the larger cities and towns (Figure 3). —IG 3 Sopron > •" Györ Debrecen . \ Saombathely ™w """°——•—-°' ""/ Ml Vessprem ••• f •Financial (SA ••• •»•"' O Research Y •••• ««A ACommercial andtourîsi A Transport AAgriculture • Industry OConstruction S,. •Q • Sieged' O BBSâ v J—' Figure 2. Distribution of telefaxes by user type, 1988. -.„.•'-•>. \ ^Tatabâmin V2..*-—-"' ppSalgótarjan \«[î] îMosonmagyarovâr \^& 7W sMergom LT)Ege r IX <^.J >- ^* **-V, Gvôr o.oszlânyt ^ !» \Ä _ //10001-20000 - Bekescsaba * 5 001-10 000 1 0011-5000 : 501-1 000 - 101-500 - c=TV-5' d=LocalTV-statio nŒ ] Figure 3.Distributio n of satellite receivers, 1988. Recent developments and conclusions Telematics had not assumed major proportions inHungar y until recently, which isno t surprising, sinceeve n thetraditiona l communication systems still show large deficiencies 61 there.Th e unavailability of certain telecommunications systemsfoster s the appearanceo f other forms of telecommunication, mostly types that are relatively unfamiliar in Western countries (e.g. telegram and CB radio transmitter because of the lack of telephones; satellite receivers instead of cable television). Modern telecommunications systems aremainl yintroduce di nth ecapita lBudapest ,th e larger cities and the county seats. Therefore, small towns and rural areas are relatively deprived of information. Nevertheless there are striking differences between rural areas near the urban agglomerations and the more peripheral areas. The main cause of this unequality lies in the centralized socialist economy, with its strong hierarchical organization of information flows. In such a system, rural areas hardly take part in decision making on industry, agriculture, commercial and other activities in society. Our conclusion is that the introduction of telematics in a centrally planned economy shows the same concentration tendencies as in Western market economies. In the autumn of 1989 the communist regime in Hungary collapsed. The new democratic government has worked out a national program on social, economic and cultural development. To reach the goals a huge amount of money from Western countries will be needed. Economic life is in transition from acentrall y planned economy to amarke t economy. In this difficult process many, mainly small and medium-sized, state-owned firms are moving into the private sector, and hundreds of joint ventures between Hungarian and foreign companies have been founded. Multinational trusts and firms have also appeared in Hungary; step by step, the national market is becoming international and world-wide. The foreign companies are investing in their new enterprises in Hungary. A very important part of their activities is to help develop the neglected linear infrastructure (roads,vehicles ,telecommunication s network).A sth edevelopmen t oftrans portation is a very expensive and long-term process, money should first be invested in telecommunications; it is less expensive and the results appear relatively soon. Already afe w Western companies (German,American , Australian,Israeli )ar econtributin gcapita l to build a modern wire and wireless communication network in Hungary. The World Bank has contributed US $7 0 million for modernization and expansion of the telephone and telefax network. As aresul t of these developments, two million new telephone lines and about 90,000 telefax lines will be in operation in 1995. By that time about one million households will be able to receive satellite TV programs. There are no plans for other modes of telematics (e.g. videotex, minitex) development for the future yet. The development of telecommunications can set the basic conditions for further economic and social development in Hungary. The new private firms, thejoin t ventures and the foreign companies will be unable to work efficiently without modern telecommunications systems. Moreover, the Hungarian people look forward to receiving more information about theres t of theworl d with thehel p of modern telecommunication techniques. Theentir e nation willbenefi t from the newdevelopments ,o f which the modernization of telecommunications systems is only a part. The more peripheral rural areas will be liberatedfro m theirrelativ eisolation .Experienc ei nWester ncountries ,however ,indicate s that a reversal of the concentration tendency should not be expected. On the contrary, increased pressure on the already strong economic centers, in particular the capital of Budapest, is more likely. 62 POSSIBLE LAND-USE CHANGES AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL, THREE CONTRASTING SCENARIO'S FOR THE PROVINCE OF FRIESLAND Jan D. Markusse Institute for Human Geography, University of Amsterdam Abstract Today local and regional authorities have to deal with great uncertainties about relevantfuture developments at higher levels than the local and the regionals ones. Under these circumstances a set of alternative exploratory-anticipatoryscenarios of future land use changes can be a helpful toolfor the local and regionalplanning. In thispaper three alternative exploratory-anticipatory scenarios will be sketchedfor the province of Friesland.Friesland can be considered in the context of theNetherlands as a peripheral rural area. The three scenarios willparticularly differ inaccordance with the national economic growth rate and a number of socio-economic and infrastructuraldevelopments having consequencesfor future land use orientedpolicies withinFriesland. Keywords: land-use planning, scenario-approach, Friesland. Introduction In the Netherlands physical planning and land-use policy is an important tool for provincial authorities in making long-term regional development policies. During the 1980s the provincial authorities have been confronted with the necessity to accommodate their long-term policies to impacts of emerging changes in the national and the international economic life which imply considerable uncertainty about future developments at the level of regional economies. This applies also to the policy making of the authorities of the province of Friesland. Friesland is a part of the relatively peripheral less-urbanized area in the Northern Netherlands. The province suffers from the well-known disadvantages usually characterizing this type of region like high unemployment and population expulsion. During the post-war period the Frisian regional economy has shown a considerable sensitivity to the national and international economic cycle. During periods of economic recession the perspectives for socio-economic development of the province were bleak (Mojet, 1986). On the other hand, however, during periods of economic expansion the regional authorities have been able to exploit comparative advantages of the region within the national and international economy (Province Friesland, 1988). In the 1980s new developments have emerged. First, there is the economic restructuration accompanying new technological innovations ranging from adaptation of microelectronics and telecommunications to new materials and biotechnology. The impacts of the adaptation of these innovations imply important changes in comparative advantages of localities and regions and this applies also to the so-called 'green field' locational advantages of Friesland (Dostâl, 63 Markusse and Blaas, 1988). Second, there is the tendency to organizational changes in the political and administrative systems as well as in the economic systems toward increasing flexibility of operations. On the one hand, these developments increase for the provincial authorities uncertainty as regards their policy-making. Yet, on the one hand, these developments can enable them to anticipate future changes in a more flexible way. Third, there is also considerable uncertainty accompanying recent central government's policy intentions in the field of national physical planning. The Fourth Report on Physical Planning (1988) has put a strong emphasis upon the country's economic core area of Randstad and some of the large agglomerations. These national planning intentions can have unfavorable consequences for more peripheral and less- urbanized provinces like Friesland. Obviously, the provincial authorities in Friesland face increased uncertainties as regards various conditions that are relevant for the making of long-term development policies within their region including those aiming at future patterns of land-use. In consequence, there is a need for approaches that allow the authorities to sketch long-term policy goals thereby matching the uncertainty of future developments in a flexible way. Here, the scenario approach can be helpful because a set of alternative scenarios of future possible land-use changes can contribute to more flexible and diversified goals of regional planning. Accordingly, the aim of this contribution is to sketch three alternative scenarios for possible land-use changes in Friesland over the period of about two next decades.  scenario approach A scenario describes a set of potential occurrences which belong to a certain field of reference. It is a construct referring to (i) an initial situation, (ii) a picture of the future situation, and (iii) possible paths to the future situation. The assessment of future events is based on assumptions concerning the relevance of key-variables (conditions) and on hypotheses concerning the development and possible interdependencies of the variables. There are many types of scenario approaches (Ducot and Lubben, 1980). First, there is the distinction between descriptive and normative approaches. In a descriptive approach, developments and future situations are assessed without considering the questions of desirability and possibilities of influencing. In normative approaches, the questions of desirability and possibilities of influencing by the policy-makers are important. Second, there is the important distinction is between exploratory and anticipatory approaches. In an exploratory approach, a number of key-conditions for developments over a time period are given and a future situation is assessed. In contrast, in an anticipatory approach the future situation is given and the necessary developments to arrive there are sketched. Also various combinations of these approaches are possible. The choice of the scenario approach used in this contribution is based upon the following considerations (Dostäl, Markusse and Blaas,, 1988). First, given the uncertainties under which the regional authorities have to make their policies the attention must be devoted to different developments which can take place. Second, the aims of the regional authorities' policies have to be incorporated into the approach. Finally, the attention must be also turned to the possibilities of effectively influencing of developments in accordance with the aims of the regional authorities. Therefore, sketching three contrasting scenarios concerning possible future land-use changes, two subsequent questions must be considered: (i) explorative-descriptive questions about developments which the provincial 64 authorities cannot influence (given the key-conditions which future situations can be expected?), and (ii) normative-anticipatory questions about developments which in principle the provincial authorities can influence (given the aims, how can they be realized?). Explorative and descriptive questions Obviously, the regional authorities have to operate under the circumstances of some crucial extra-regional conditions which they are not able to control or influence. Therefore, the most important explorative and descriptive questions concern the changes of conditions on the supra-regional level. The first question which must be considered is what societal and techno-economic processes will seemingly gain in relevance in the long-term perspective of the scenarios. The following ones have to be mentioned. First, the changes in the production structure. Small-scale production systems are gaining in importance and seem to show considerable flexibility and adaptability (Piore and Sable, 1984; Stöhr, 1985). A competitive segment of small enterprises seems to provide at regional and local levels new possibilities for the making of more endogenously based economic development and policies in expense of the policy making based upon large-scale systems of production which are usually extra- regionally controlled (Boekema, 1987). Regarding future operations of thé large-scale firms it seems that their main headquarters will still be located in the largest agglomerations of contemporary highly urbanized regions. Due to the adoption of innovations in communication, however, some parts of administrative and R&D functions could tend to decentralize from the core-regions towards surrounding good accessible less-urbanized regions which could provide both attractive production locations and attractive living environments (Maier and Tödtling, 1986). Second, there are emerging new socio-economic and techno-economic trends which seem to indicate future changes in land-use patterns. New emerging trends point to a shift of spatial claims from firm and office to household locations. Due to the adoptions of innovations in telecommunication, automation of word processing, transportation, flexible multi-purpose machines or just-in-time production some significant in-situ reductions of space can be realized in industrial firms and offices locations (Koning, Hanemaayer and de Smidt, 1988). In contrast, there are indications that the spatial claims per household unit will continue to increase (Vlek, 1987). The adoption of telematics can stimulate work at home. Furthermore, the increase of so- called prosumptive activities at home or in the local living environment and the storage of increasing number and variety of attributes of recreation in homes can enforce this trend further (Gershuny, 1985). The second explorative-descriptive question which must be considered is how the international and national economic cycle could develop in the long-term. The influential Centraal Planbureau explored alternative paths of the national economic growth assuming its dependence on possible alternative paths of the international economic cycle (CPB, 1985). The CPB calculated three contrasting scenario's: high (H), moderate (M) and low (L) economic growth paths. According to the H-scenario, increasing congestion in the provinces of the Randstad and the tensions on the regional labor market in the West will stimulate considerable relocation of jobs and also investments towards the northern less-urbanized macro-region of the country. In consequence, according to the high growth path the province of Friesland could 65 anticipate considerable expansion of its economy accompanied by extensive infrastructural investments. According to the M-scenario, the economic development will be relatively concentrated in the most urbanized parts of the country. Consequently, socio-economic disparities among the four macro-regions of the country could increase. In the North the increase of the number of jobs and the decrease of unemployment will be very moderate. In the L-scenario the CPB considered some consequences of lasting stagnation in the West, South and East. In the North, the job volume increase will be nihil for a long period and, in particular, the unemployment rate will rise considerably. It is obvious, that these contrasts in the long-term estimations of the economic development in the North are also implying contrasting principal side-conditions which the provincial authorities of Friesland will have to anticipate in their long-term policies. The contrasting side-conditions have to be incorporated in considering socio economic and socio-cultural initiatives to be started in the province as well as in assessing a number of key-factors and accompanying means available within Friesland. In Table 1. both the key-factors and the possible initiatives are summarized in a schematic way. Accepting the sensitivity of the Frisian regional economy to the national and the international economic cycles the changes of factors are differentiated in accord with the high (H), moderate (M) and low (L) economic growth which the regional authorities will have to anticipate taking appropriate initiatives. In principle, the factors indicated can be considered as means which the provincial authorities can attempt to influence by taking initiatives. This applies also to the qualities of the land- use patterns of Friesland. Table 1.Key-variable s and initiatives Economic expansion Key-variables High Moderate Low - Net migration rate ++ +/- + - Potential active population ++ + + - Competitive economic activities - large scale ++ +/- - - small scale ++ + +/- - Labour demand - agriculture - - - - industry +++ + - - office activities ++ + + - other commercial services +++ ++ + - public and semi-public services ++ + +/- - Interregional infra-structure ++ + 0 AlllUdllvca - Land-use policy at ' - regional level limitative/ flexible/ very flexible • local level limitative/ flexible/ most possible selective active flexibility 66 The present land-use pattern of Friesland The concern with the explorative and descriptive questions necessitates to consider the side-conditions of future developments in Friesland. In order to answer the normative and anticipatory questions, however, the means must be assessed within Friesland which are available to the provincial authorities in making their land-use policies vis a-vis the contrasting side-conditions. It is therefore necessary to assess the contemporary land-use situation in Friesland. Such an assessment must supply information about relative advantages of the Frisian land-use pattern, advantages which the provincial authorities can exploit in making their long-term land-use policies. Friesland belongs within the national land-use pattern to the category of regions that are characterized as less-urbanized ones having a small share of urban-like land- use. The largest settlement in Friesland is the provincial capital of Leeuwarden having 81.000 inhabitants. The numbers of inhabitants of other largest towns vary between 12.000 and 42.000 inhabitants. The relative lack of a diversified urban infrastructure implies in particular (i) the importance of a careful matching of the provincial policies to the qualitative characteristics of urban elements of Frisian land-use pattern, and (ii) the importance of possible relative advantages which can be indicated regarding the qualitative characteristics of Frisian rural land-use pattern. In order to identify the major differences in land-use pattern in Friesland at the intermunicipal level one can use data supplied by the Central Statistical Office (CBS, 1988). These data are referring to the situation in 1985. Given the considerable variation in sizes of municipal territories, however, it is not suitable to indicate the çz? Leeuwarden Urban municipalities Industrial-urbanized municipalities Industrial municipalities Rural-industrial municipalities I»• » | Suburban-agricultural \' *° l municipalities r*~*"l Recreation municipalities Map 1. Intermunicipal differences in urbanization and socio-economic situation in the province of Friesland, 1986. (Cluster analysis 28 municipal units) 67 shares of land-use types in relation to the total municipal area. Therefore, the land-use has been split into two complementing categories, i.e. into a major category of urban- like land-use and a major category of rural-like land-use and the shares of more detailed types of land-use are established within the two major categories. Obviously, this procedure cannot reveal the principal differences in urbanization among the Frisian municipal units. These differences are therefore summarized in Map 1 (cf. Dostâl, Markusse and Blaas, 1988). Yet, analyzing the urban-like and the rural-like land-use subcategories in a separate way it is possible to indicate qualitative differences among the Frisian municipalities as regards the land-use patterns within their built up areas and within their rural areas. Table 2. COMPONENTS OF LAND-USE PATTERNS IN THE PROVINCE OF FRIESLAND 1985 (28 municipal units) A. Urban-like land-use Variable Componentloadings (varimax rotation) Component1 Component 2 Residential Economic functions activities Roads/railways - 0.676 - 0.709 Residential 0.886 0.187 Green areas 0.776 - 0.122 Enterprises - 0.252 0.864 Litter 0.152 0.518 Eigenvalue 1.93 1.56 Pet of Var 38.6% 31.2% B. Rural-like land-use Variable Componentloadings (varimax rotation) Component 1 Component 2 Recreation and Water vs. natural areas woodland Water 0.067 0.851 Recreation 0.808 0.187 Agriculture - 0.92S 0.278 Woodland 0.281 -0.607 Natural areas 0.867 - 0.384 Eigenvalue 2.34 1.35 Pet of Var 46.9% 27.0% Two separate principal component analyses have been applied in order to identify the main dimensions in both major categories of land-use. The outcomes indicate that both in the urban and in the rural categories of land-use only two orthogonal components can represent sufficiently the differences among 28 municipal units of the province (Table 2). 68 The first component of the urban-like land-use represents the residential functions. The second one represents land-use types associated with the economic activities. The first principal component of the rural-like land-use represents negative association between the areas for recreation and nature and the areas occupied by agricultural activities. The second component describes the distinction between the water and the woodland areas. Considering the major differences in the interregional pattern of land-use in the Netherlands it appears that also within the province of Friesland there are important differences at the intermunicipal level in both in the urban-like and the rural-like group of land-use categories. A cluster analysis of the 28 municipal units on the four components indicates these difference in a solution into 8 clusters (Map 2.). These outcomes provide important supplementary information to the one concerning the provincial pattern of urbanization (Map 1.). I&&83 Cluster 1 KB Cluster 2 I " 1 Cluster 3 HTTÏÏ1 cluster 4 I7W1 Cluster 5 K-----1 Cluster 6 Y77Ä Cluster 7 K\Xg Cluster 8 Map 2. Types of land-use patterns in the province of Friesland, 1986. (Cluster analysis 28 municipal units) Leeuwarden and the other urban municipalities belong to two clusters of land-use. The two clusters have quite similar scores on both components of the urban-like land-use, however, they differ in their positions on the two components of the rural like land- use. The capital and south-western town of Sneek have in their rural parts extensive recreational and water areas which in the other urban municipalities are underrepresented. The industrial and rural industrial municipalities surrounding Sneek belong to clusters 3 and 4. The former ones have large water and recreational areas. Within the relatively more urbanized eastern part of the province there is a great variation in land-use. It is important to note that the municipalities between Leeuwarden and the eastern provincial boundary have land-use patterns which are 69 similar to those of the largest urban municipalities. Accordingly, they appear to belong to the Frisian largest zone of urban land-use which also includes the urban municipality of Smallingerland. Two municipalities in the south-east form cluster 5. Their land-use patterns include large woodland areas. Municipalities in cluster 6 have land-use patterns which are characterized by residential functions, yet where the land- use types of both economic and recreational activities are underrepresented. It seems that these municipalities could belong in future to a zone of urban land-use which could extend from the port of Harlingen on the western Frisian coast to the above- indicated more urbanized municipalities in the eastern part of the province. The four Frisian islands appear to belong to separate clusters 7 and 8. However, this outcome is due to the presence of gas winning activities on Ameland and military activities on Vlieland. All four islands have land-use patterns characterized by recreation, nature and woodland. Exploring the existing intermunicipal patterns of land-use as indispensable means which obviously must be considered by the provincial authorities in their future long- term regional development and land-use policy-making, the following major conclusions can be drawn: (i) Leeuwarden and other larger Frisian towns have land-use patterns with clear urban features which characterize the intra-regional agglomeration of infrastructural investments associated with urban functions. These relative advantages should certainly be used in long-term policy-making. (ii) rural municipalities belonging to cluster 3 and certainly also some municipalities in cluster 4 appear to have land-use patterns which provide advantages for future development of recreational activities in accord with their high quality living environment and important nature areas. Municipalities belonging to cluster 5 possess also certain relative advantages given their larger woodland areas. The land-use patterns of the four Frisian islands have similar features. Given their small areas and inaccessibility, however, a future more intensive use of their advantages should be avoided. (iii) municipalities belonging to clusters 2 and 6 have land-use patterns which could be considered in the long-term policy-making as patterns suitable for integration into the land-use of urban municipalities of Harlingen/Franeker, Leeuwarden and Smallingerland. This could enable to form a future larger urban zone in the province. The provincial authorities could anticipate such a possibility if the regional economic expansion will nécessite a land-use policy which will have to accommodate considerable urban-like spatial claims and pressure on the Frisian land-use pattern. Normative and anticipatory questions The above-explored land-use patterns must be considered as important means which have to be considered in long-terms development of Friesland. In order to sketch possible initiatives and possible changes in the land-use pattern of the province it is now necessary to provide some information about the basic elements of a desirable future situation in Friesland that the provincial authorities wish to achieve by their policy-making and accompanying initiatives. According to the recent Streekplan (the regional physical plan accepted by the Provincial Council in 1988) new economic activity has to be concentrated in Leeuwarden and in other largest towns of the province (Drachten in Smallingerland, Heerenveen, Sneek, Dokkum in Dongeradeel, and in Harlingen/Franeker). On the other 70 hand, the provincial authorities wish to stimulate a more balanced and more equitable development of built environment in all sub-regions of Friesland. A development that has to match the sub-region's developmental opportunities. The authorities emphasize the primary function of physical planning in the sense of providing a suitable physical and infrastructural base for the socio-economic development. In their recent Sociaal- Economisch Beleidsplan (the regional plan for socio-economic development accepted in 1988) the provincial authorities emphasize the following components indicating the so-called ideal future situation: (i) full employment of men and women able and willing to participate in a diversified regional labor market, (ii) creation of jobs providing higher incomes and welfare, and (iii) maximal contribution to the national economic development by exploiting particularly relative advantages of the urban area of Leeuwarden, the port of Harlingen and the towns Drachten and Heerenveen. And, importantly, the authorities accept that such an ideal situation does not imply that "the structure of employment cannot differ per region" (Province Friesland, 1988B, 23). Finally, the authorities emphasize that both in spatial and in socio-economic policy making the decentralization of competence towards municipalities must be enhanced. Given these pivotal elements of the provincial authorities' normative sketch of a desirable future situation the following anticipatory question arises. It is the question of how under contrasting circumstances of high, moderate or low national and regional economic growth the advantages of the provincial land-use can be exploited in order to approximate the above-indicated sketch. The contrasts in development of relevant variables are summarized in Table 1. H-scenario Under the circumstances of the high economic expansion of the (international and the Frisian economy considerable déconcentration of the economic activity from the provinces of the West (Randstad) troubled by congestion phenomena must be anticipated. The conditions for socio-economic change and spatial development of the province will be obviously very favorable. However, two issues related to land-use pattern must be anticipated. On the one hand, it will be necessary to take initiatives in order to channel the increasing new claims on the space in all parts of Friesland. On the other hand, under the favorable conditions of this H-scenario the regional and local authorities will be in a position having enough means that can be distributed or reallocated. Accordingly, the land-use pattern of the region can change in principle considerably. First, the role of the regional physical plan (Streekplan) can be 'strong' in the sense of selectivity and spatial delineation of functions (Dostal, Markusse and Blaas, 1988, 146-148). The provincial physical planning is particularly the field in which by means of zoning diverse economic and other functions and developments can be considered in an integral way in order to co-ordinate the policy-making at the intermunicipal level. According to the H-scenario both the large-scale and the small-scale segment of the economy will expand. There will be considerable need for local and intermunicipal relocation. The demand for new premises by firms and offices will necessitate the development of new accessible land-use areas for these economic functions. Second, the emigration of population will be reversed into immigration and there will be needs for new housing and new residential and recreational areas. Under the circumstances of considerable economic expansion the adoption of telematics will have far-reaching impacts. The shift of the increasing spatial claims from firms and offices towards 71 homes will be particularly intensive. Spatial claims per household will increase significantly. Finally, there will be also considerable demand for both new infrastructure (telecommunication, telework centers, etc.) and renewal of older facilities of transport and communication (electrification of railways, glass fibre cables networks, motorways). An indicative spatial sketch is shown in Map 3A indicating the intermunicipal zoning within which these developments can be accommodated. Given the intermediate position of Friesland between the Randstad and the agglomeration Groningen/Assen in the other two northern provinces, the expansion can be accommodated within two complementary zones. In particular the northern zone can match the urban land-use patterns of the municipalities involved. As regards the southern zone, it will be necessary to forecome environmental deterioration within the municipalities in order to preserve the recreational and nature qualities which then- Map 3a. Indicative spatial sketch H-scenario land-use patterns provide. Because these land-use patterns are important means with which the authorities can maintain an attractive environment for clean economic activities and simultaneously stimulate the development of high quality residential areas. Therefore, according to this H-scenario a too intensive pressure on this zone must be avoided. It is clear, that in anticipating the considerable pressure on the spatial claims of the province the authorities have to delineate in the framework of a 'strong' Streekplan a number of areas which must be excluded from radical changes of the land-use. First, the central part of Friesland has to be reserved for a regional 'Green Hart' in order to preserve the basic spatial distinction between the two main zones of urbanization. Second, a northern zone of agricultural land-use can be maintained. This agricultural area can be stimulated by expanding horticulture and diversifying the existing crop farming. The four islands have to be stimulated to maintain their unique land-use pattern of nature and recreation areas. Third, in the southern municipalities the possible changes of the land-use pattern are constrained. 72 Because the water recreation-oriented and the woodland recreation-oriented activities will have to contribute also in this H-scenario to the economic development of this part of the province. M-scenario The circumstances accompanying in M-scenario moderate growth of the national economy and very modest growth of the Frisian economy will constrain any possibilities of making radical provincial socio-economic and spatial policies. There will be little chances to anticipate relocation of the economic activity and of large groups of population from the Randstad. In contrary, there will be significant emigration of young age groups to the labor markets of the large agglomerations in the West where the economy will be relatively flourishing (Dostâl, Markusse and Blaas, 1988, 134-135). In consequence, it will not be necessary to channel extra- regional pressure within the pattern of the provincial land-use. Moreover, in this scenario the increase of home-oriented land-use claims will be less intensive. Therefore, the key issue will be to anticipate a situation in which the role of the Streekplan can be only a selective one. In the sense of choosing among potential locations for moderate change of land-use as well as in the sense of distributing limited financial and other means at the intermunicipal level. Therefore, the provincial authorities will have to be flexible in introducing restrictions in regional physical planning. But, some selection and zoning will be necessary and, consequently, a general division of the province in zones of possible changes in land-use will be appropriate. In addition, the municipal authorities will have to be very flexible and active in making local physical plans. Co-operation with the market sector will be necessary. Public-private partnerships will have to supplement the more traditional means of spatial planning and financing development. In order to be able to create arrangements having the capacity to develop larger projects, the PPPs must be introduced in particular in Leeuwarden and the large towns Drachten, Harlingen/Franeker, Heerenveen and Sneek. According to this M-scenario there will be limited means for introducing changes into the infrastructure and accompanying land-use patterns. An indicative spatial sketch is shown in Map 3B indicating the intermunicipal zoning which is in accord with the circumstances of this scenario. First, given the lack of pressure on spatial claims from the provinces of Randstad there will be little need for land-use change in the western part of Friesland. In contrast, the possibilities of the land-use pattern in the eastern part will gain in importance. The authorities will have to anticipate development possibilities which the relative expansion of the agglomeration Groningen/Assen will create. The relatively scarce means will have to be allocated within the agglomeration Leeuwarden, but the urban development and expansion of urban land-use claims must also be directed towards the zone between the Frisian capital and the Groningen/Assen urban area. According to this scenario, the municipalities Smallingerland and Heerenveen will be involved in this development. Yet, also municipalities Tietjerksteradeel and Achtkarspelen with their urban-like land- use patterns provide possibilities to be incorporated into such land-use change in the eastern part of Friesland. According to this scenario, the small-scale segment of the Frisian economy will show moderate expansion. The large-scale segment will be involved in lasting reorganizations and it will show stagnation. The small-scale segment is particularly important in the western part of the province. It will provide 73 there the necessary base for sub-regional economic development, but possible changes in land-use will be small-scale ones and concentrated in Sneek and Harlingen/Franeker. According to this M-scenario there will be little changes in the structure of the regional economy. The traditionally important sector of the recreation Map 3b. Indicative spatial sketch M-scenario will be stimulated in order to exploit unique advantages of the 'green field' land-use pattern of the province. In particular within the western part of Friesland the authorities can anticipate the creation of a 'formation' of integrated activities of small firms (water recreation equipment, repair, etc.) and establishments in the service provision (especially water-oriented recreation). Such a 'formation' will capitalize the advantages which the land-use pattern in municipalities of this part of the province can offer in comparison with other Dutch regions. L-scenario According to this scenario the regional authorities must anticipate in long-term quite unfavorable (extra-)regional conditions. The long-term socio-economic change will have features of a so-called 'jobless society' (Dostal, Markusse and Blaas, 1988, 179- 181). In consequence, the socio-economic issues will be very important in the policy making of the regional and local authorities. Even in the highly urbanized provinces of the Randstad the regional growth will be moderate. Consequently, the emigration of young ages groups from Friesland will be less intensive in comparison with the situation according to the M-scenario. Given the lasting shortages of employment opportunities the immigration into Friesland will be very specific. Only the retiring migration will be significant. The Frisian living environment will gain in attractivity because both the costs of living and the costs of housing will be lower than in the more urbani regions of the country. The large-scale segment of the regional economy of Friesland will be involved in reorganizations and also the small-scale segment will 74 show certain stagnation. The introduction of telematics into the regional economy will be very selective. The infrastructural investments in advanced glass fibre networks will be made in only the urban area of Leeuwarden. In order to create possibilities for connections with the highly hierarchically installed communication network in the province, the establishment of informatica work centers in the largest towns will be necessary. Unorthodox initiatives will be taken in the socio-economic field like sectoral/regional labor pools. Integration of schooling and re-schooling arrangements with the employers preferences of changing classifications of the regional/local labor force will gain in importance. There will be a continuous need for co-ordination between regional and local authorities, the employers, the trade unions and other local interest groups. According to this scenario there will be a certain regionalization of the socio-economic life within the province. The activities at the sub-regional level will be oriented towards the largest towns of Friesland creating six so-called 'regional niches' (Map 3C). Under these circumstances there will be few possibilities to change the contemporary patterns of land-use. Building activities will be almost solely involved in maintaining of the existing housing stock. Only some incidental new housing projects will be started. The role of the Streekplan will have to be very flexible. Supporting the endogenous regional-economic and social policy the regional physical planning will have the important task of spatial co-ordination. Yet, the sanctioning of spatial claims will have to be very flexible and the spatial functional classifications of land-use will have to be specified in very general terms. This in order to accommodate flexibly possible changes in need for land-use coming from very different sorts of activities. Map 3c. Indicative spatial sketch L-scenario Great detail in land-use classification will be avoided. On the other hand, the local physical plans of the six central towns will be important. Also at the local and sub- regional level the initiatives will be aiming to evoke at least small-scale investments. Accordingly, the arrangements of public-private partnerships will have a small-scale and poly-functional character. Small changes in the land-use patterns associated with 75 infrastructural activities will be connected with initiatives to eliminate bottlenecks in transport and communication among the six sub-regional centers and their hinterlands. According to this L-scenario the changes in the land-use patterns in both the urban and the rural areas will be small. Therefore, the pattern of the Frisian land-use as shown in Map 1wil l change only marginally. The most significant mutations will take place in the suburban municipalities surrounding Leeuwarden. Yet, also within this major regional 'niche' the suburbanization will follow the already existing infrastructure and the land-use changes can take place in the eastern municipality of Tietjerksteradeel having the most urban-like land-use pattern. Within the other five 'niches' the land-use change will be even less intensive. Special attention will be devoted to the land-use pattern of the rural parts of the three 'niches' in the southern part of the province. These rural areas have in particular attractive living environment which will attract retiring migrants form the largest urban agglomerations of the country. The 'niche' surrounding Sneek will be able to 'capitalize' its areas rich in possibilities for water recreation in short distance. The 'niche' of Smallingerland can provide an attractive living environment rich in woodland areas which are extending into similar land-use areas in the western part of the province of Drenthe. The municipalities surrounding Heerenveen can provide both principal attractive elements of living environment within the southern part of Friesland. But also within this 'niche' the changes in land-use will be marginal. Conclusion In the field of the regional socio-economic policy-making and also in that of the regional physical planning the short-term approach of the issues is usual. This is not only due to the tradition of spatial planning from the 1960s and the 1970s, but also due to an obvious political necessity. In brief, the relevance of various issues is changing and long-term forecasting of trends has considerable deficiencies as regards the plausibility of outcomes. Therefore, the scenario approach seems to be more useful. Sketching contrasting scenarios which are incorporating normative goals of long-term planning can stimulate the authorities and planners to distinguish between alternatives. Alternatives which under changed key-circumstances soon could result in new and more adequate policies and initiatives. Also the most recent planning documents of the provincial authorities of Friesland do consider only one vision of the future in short-term. However, in particular in the fields of spatial and land-use planning and policy such an approach is less appropriate. Because spatial claims which are realized in the build environment have always long-term impacts which under changed conditions can hinder new developments. 76 SECTION 2 Suburban growth and agricultural withdrawal DIRECT MARKETING AS AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION IN MEGALOPOLITAN CONNECTICUT Timothy J. Rickard Central Connecticut State University, New Britain, CT 06050 USA Abstract Marketing products directly to the consumer is one of the most powerful strategies farmers have in urbanfringe areas.As traditional agricultural sectors havedeclined in Connecticut, the State has promoted "ConnecticutGrown" fruits and vegetables and identifiedpotential market niches. Analysisof directmarketing directories and asurvey offarmers reveals considerable spatial variationand diversityof enterpriseas farmers experimentwith different combinations ofproducts andmethods such aspick-your-own, roadsidestands andfarmers markets. Keywords: direct marketing, urban fringe, agriculture, adaptation, fruits, 'vegetables, Connecticut. Introduction Marketing products directly to the consumer is one of the most powerful strategies farmers have in urban fringe areas.Ther e they must choose between positive adaptations taking advantage of opportunities in the fringe environment ornegativ e strategies leading to giving up farming (Johnston & Bryant, 1987, 9-21). Connecticut is an urban state in America's Megalopolis where direct marketing features prominently as a means of sustaining agriculture. Rapid urbanization has consumed much farmland. Also, the traditional agricultural sectors of dairying and tobacco production have faced, and substantially havesuccumbe d to,economi ccompetition .Thi spape ranalyze s theproducts , methods and location of direct marketing in Connecticut, examines the extent to which its adoption is a response to other declining agricultural sectors and urbanization, and suggests trends and prospects for this agricultural activity. Direct Marketing Farmers sell their farm products directly to consumers because they can usually obtain a higher price per unit than by selling to wholesalers and retailers. Consumers buy directly from farmers becauseprice s are somewhat lower than in stores and supermarkets at the end of traditional wholesaler-retailer channels, the produce is fresher and the pleasure of directpurchas e outweighs theinconvenienc e of notpurchasin g allfoo d aton e retail outlet. Direct marketing is limited in any place by the number of potential consumers and their preferences. Farmers must therefore experiment to find out what products they can selldirectl y toconsumers ,i n whatvolum e and bywhic htype s of direct marketing.Custome rpick-your-own , farm standan dfarmers ' markets areth emai n means 79 of direct marketing in Connecticut. Small volumeproducer s maymarke t a single product by pick-your-own or a roadside stand. Large volume producers may diversify their product lines and use both traditional marketing methods and direct marketing. In principle, therefore, direct marketing is fairly simple. In practice the entrepreneurial search for products and marketing methods that satisfy both a farmer and his or her customers leads to a diversity of farm enterprises. In Connecticut the contrast is quite apparent between highly structured dairy farming regulated by milk processors and government, and direct marketing of fruits, vegetables, flowers, trees, nursery products, wine, honey, or lamb to fill large or small marketing niches. From the point of view of farmers in the urban fringe environment, direct marketing represents a "positive adaptation"intende d toimprov e thefarm' s economicprospects .Johnsto n andBryan thav e distinguished six types of positive adaptation strategies as follows: "(1)pick-your-ow n operations,(2 )establishmen t ofretai l outlets,(3 ) land-extensive cash cropping, (4) direct livestock sales, (5)of f farm employment and (6) single lot severance" (Johnston & Bryant, 1987, 14). Connecticut farmers do not practice as full a range of these strategies as would many urban fringe farming communities (Lawrence, 1988). Building up huge cash grain farms by renting land available on the urban fringe is not feasible: there are no cash grain farms, and litde land is available for rent at a reasonable price. Nor are there any large beef fatteners seeking to direct-market a portion of their herd. These adaptations are subsumed under direct farmer retailingo f baled hay andEaste rlamb ,mino r opportunities among those available tofanner s in Connecticut's urban fringe. As might be expectedi n a state with urban, suburban, exurban and rural areas, direct marketing is not evenly spread across Connecticut. Clustering is evident but surprisingly the relationship is not a simple association with population density. Some urban fringe areas have little direct marketing. Both environment and agricultural tradition play a role, as Bowler found in his studies of pick-your-own fruits and vegetables in the United Kingdom. He found a "very uneven spatial distribution" with prevalence in Southeast England (the counties of Essex, Kent and Sussex) and the West Midlands (Vale of Evesham). Traditional association with fruit and vegetable production and closeness to the London and Birmingham conurbations ascoexistin gfactor s appearedt ob ecritical .Frui tan dvegetabl e growing areas inaccessible to large numbers of consumers and urban areas with little horticultural tradition had less pick-your-own (Bowler, 1981a, 149-50; 1981b, 307-308; 1982, 24-27). In Connecticut, direct marketing outlets are found in every part of the state (Figure 1). The greatest concentration is on the urban fringe of Hartford and New Britain. These towns - the state is divided into 169 towns for local government purposes - form the urban core of a metropolitan region, the fringes of which extend beyond the boundaries of Hartford County (Figure 1). The fully urban and more'densely populated suburban towns have little direct marketing: it occurs in the less densely populated suburbs of Hartford whereope n spaceremains .A simila r situationoccur s around NewHaven ,whic h is the urban core of both the county and the MSA of New Haven. Fairfield County, a third county of 800,000 to 900,000 population has much open space on the fringe of several urban areas but it is little used for direct marketing (Figure 1). A potential opportunity for farmers seems to be neglected (Waggoner, 1986,4). In this county the historical decrease in farming was earliest and most severe so there have been fewer farmers to adopt this marketing method in the last two decades. The county is now part 80 of suburban New York City which is significant in that its wealth, high real estate prices and high land prices encourage farmers to sell out. Average selling price of a house was $270,000i n 1987,almos t double thati n Hartford orNe wHave n Counties (The Hartford Courant, 1988,A18) .Furthermore ,i t liesoutsid e the fertile soilregio no f the Connecticut Valley, which extends from the Massachusetts border to New Haven, embracing much of Hartford County. _ Glastonbury „ I ;;YJ Hartford 10+ | ';•; | New Br|Ujn N«w Havan Figure 1. Connecticut: all outlets for direct marketing in 1989. The combination of urban fringe opportunities, and a tradition of fruit and vegetable production, particularly apples, makes Hartford County the focus of direct marketing in Connecticut. The two most rural counties, Litchfield and Windham, have more direct marketing outlets than their population density would suggest. Litchfield ranks second to Hartford and Windham ranks fifth of the eight. Although these counties are largely outside the census metropolitan areas, it can be argued that in a small state they are not beyond the reach of the suburban population. And yet distance must play arole .Bowle r predicts that as the British pick-your-own system matures, outlets will cluster around all metropolitan areas and the number of remoterura l ones will decrease, squeezed out by the intervening opportunity (Bowler, 1981b, 310). In fact, the over representation of direct marketing outlets in Litchfield andWindha m counties can partly beexplaine d by differences in the kinds of products direct marketed. 81 Products and Methods of Direct Marketing Perhaps themos t importantfeatur e of direct marketingi sit s complexity in termsno tonl y of thevariet y of products marketed andway so f marketing them butals oi nth e enormous number of possible combinations. For the present study, the United States Censuses of 1982 and 1987 are relatively reliable sources for number of farms and acreages of products. Unfortunately they record nothing about product combinations on farms or marketing methods. The Connecticut Direct Marketing Directories published in 1984, 1987, 1988 and 1989 record all products, identifying them as pick-your-own, cut-your-own, dig-your-own or sold on roadside stands. The farm operators voluntarily give this information to ConnecticutDepartmen t of Agriculture. Since the servicei s free, the Directories are widely circulated, and such advertising must increase sales to some degree, the rate of response is high.Nevertheless ,despit e the vigor of theDepartmen t of Agriculturei nrecordin g every directmarketin goutlet , theDirectorie s represent asample . The apparently low total of outlets in 1988 was due to less energetic follow-up (Table l).Only general conclusions can bedraw n also from a survey of the 284direc t marketers who sold any fruits and vegetables. One hundred and eighteen questionnaires were returned, a 41.6 percent response rate. Table 1.Direc t marketing by fruit and vegetable farms. 1984 1985 1988 1989 All outlets 512 555 461 523 Total fruit & vegetable 375 356 279 284 Pick-Your-Own 54 61 57 68 Stands 198 167 121 116 Pick-Your-Own & Stands 123 128 191 100 Source: Connecticut Direct Marketing Directories Fruits and Vegetables Figure 2 shows the location of the 284 fruit and vegetable farms listed in the 1989 Directory. A hundred of these are located in Hartford County,4 5 in New Haven County and only 23 in Fairfield County with the remaining counties having between 13 and 33 (Table 2). Table 2. Number of direct marketing fruit and vegetable farms per county County 1984 1987 1988 1989 Fairfield 25 20 19 23 Hartford 135 134 94 100 Litchfield 62 44 39 33 Middlesex 18 20 11 13 New Haven 57 53 53 45 New London 39 40 21 22 Tolland 19 27 21 22 Windham 20 19 21 21 Source: Connecticut Direct Marketing Directories 82 Across-chec k withth efedera l censusrecord sfo r vegetables,berrie s andorchard si n 1982 and 1987 indicates that the county level proportions are accurate. Figure 2, therefore, shows a generally representative sample distribution of fruit and vegetable farms. Table 2 and also the censuses suggest little change in the spatial pattern which metropolitan Hartford dominates. The largest single concentration of direct marketing in any town is in Glastonbury, a suburban town south-east of Hartford. Here the association of vegetables and berries with flood plains and glacial deposits and of orchards with higher basaltic ledges is typical of this metropolitan area and the adjacent concentration in New Haven County (Rickard, 1987,24) . The main change in direct marketing methods is the proportional increase in pick-your-own. Table 1show s adecreas e in thenumbe r of totalfrui t and vegetable direct marketing outlets but an increase in those marketing only through pick-your-own. FRUIT and VEGETABLE FARMS MODE OF MARKETING 1989 Pick-Your-Own O Stand P-Y-0 and Stand Figure 2. Connecticut: fruit and vegetable farms; mode of marketing (1989). The combination of pick-your-own and stands decreased, but, the greatest decrease was in marketing by stands alone. Overall, the opportunities to pick-your-own stayed about the same (173 in 1984 and 168i n 1989) but opportunities to buy from stands decreased (312 to 216). Thirty-seven of the 118 farmers responding to the questionnaire used a farmers' market for some of their products. Rarely was this their sole outlet. Sixteen of the farms sold wholesale to supermarkets or small stores in addition toretailin g a variety of products in a larger diversified operation. As in Bowler's research, direct marketing outlets can be classified into seven types according to their combination of products marketed. These combinations are: 1.berrie s (Bowler's soft fruit), 2. tree fruit (Bowler's top fruit), 3. vegetables, 4. berries and tree 83 fruit, 5. berries and vegetables, 6. tree fruit and vegetables, and 7. berries, tree fruit and vegetables (Bowler, 1981a; 1981b, 1982).Tabl e 3 summarizes the farm-by-farm data of the 1989Direc t Marketing Directory in a matrix which shows the relative importance of the seven combinations of products and the three marketing methods. Table 3.Produc t types and marketing methods Kck- Pick-Your- Your- Own and Own Stands Stands Total Berries 33 2 1 36 Tree Fruit 9 9 6 24 Vegetables 14 53 8 75 Berries & Tree Fruit 5 4 7 16 Berries & Vegetables 6 5 26 37 Tree Fruit & Vegetables 0 14 11 25 Berries/Tree Fruit/Vegetables 1 29 41 71 Source: 1989 Connecticut Direct Marketing Directory. The close association between berries and pick-your-own is evident, as 33 of the specialist berry farms used only this marketing method. Every one of the specialist berry farmers returning the questionnaire used only pick-your-own on farms smaller than 12 acres.Th e 33farm s werealmos thal f ofal lfarm s employingpick-your-own .Locationally , more than half of the berry farms were in Hartford County where consumers also have the greatest opportunity to pick berries on more diversified farms. The traditional staple of direct marketed vegetables is sweet corn. It is rarely marketed by pick-your-own but is the Connecticut vegetable most likely to be present on a stand or in a local supermarket. The census records 4,400 acres of sweet corn in 1987,2,73 0 of which is in Hartford County, which has two-thirds of the state's vegetable production (U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1987, 180-184). The second leading vegetable is green beans at 1,260 acres but over 1,000 of these are on one farm. Like the state's single large mushroom farm it has captured a rare and remarkable wholesale niche. Surprisingly, specialist vegetable farms were the second most numerous of thosemarketin g solely by pick-your- own. The survey of farmers suggested that these were generally small farms offering a broad range of vegetables or specialist pumpkin patches. Traditionally, pumpkins are carved into Jack-O-Lanterns at Halloween in New England. Specialized tree fruit farms were less numerous than specialized berry or vegetable farms. Most of them retail their crop at the farm: roadside cider mills selling non alcoholic cider and fruit at autumn harvest time are a Connecticut tradition. Apples are the major fruit crop of Connecticut occupying 3,481 of the 5,122 acres of orchards in 1987 (U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1987, 184-85).Th e 1989 Direct Marketing Directory shows that a third of the specialist tree fruit farms are solely pick-your-own, double the 1984 percentage and clearly a non-traditional small scale'experiment. Generally, fruit growers in Connecticut practice diversification, in contrast to the larger volume growers in Washington State who are organized to sell in national markets. Tree fruit and cider are unlikely to be the sole product of a Connecticut farm and other marketing methods supplement the roadside stand. The four combinations of berries, tree fruit and vegetables represent farmer diversification tofin d marketing niches.Specialize dfarm s are5 4o fth e6 8pick-your-ow n outlets and 64o f the 116farm s using only stands.Farm s selling acombinatio n of product 84 types, however, represent 85 of the 100 outlets combining pick-your-own and stands. Berries are most likely to be pick-your-own in a combination, but it is significant that nearly half of the farmers employing the tree fruit/vegetable combination use both pick-your-own and stands. Small farms as well as large ones diversify. Ten acres of apples, peaches, raspberries, blueberries, pumpkins, tomatoes and peppers can keep produce on a stand and customers picking in the fields and orchards for the summer and autumn.Fo rsom elarg efarmers ,diversificatio n meansaddin gsmal ltarget so f opportunity to a major enterprise, usually tree fruit among those returning the questionnaire. The survey also shows that full diversification may indicate off-farm sales through farmers markets, to other farmers for their stands or to supermarkets, restaurants or local shops. Five of the nine farmers who grew tree fruits, berries andvegetable s andfiv e of fourteen who grew tree fruits and berries had secured a wholesale market Other Products The 1989Direc tMarketin gDirector y lists about4 5retai l outlets, almost allo f which had farm origins, which grow only greenhouse and nursery products for sale directly to the public. At least as many have a small line of vegetables to supplement these products on the stando r even experiment with pick-your-own. Perhaps a quarter of those farms listed in the Direct Marketing Directory are principally nurseries.The y have a part in what has become Connecticut's leading agricultural sectors in terms of value: the 1987 Census shows a 90 percent increase in sales value from $62 million in 1982 to $118 million in 1987 when greenhouse and nursery products were a third of all farm sales.Unlik e fruits and vegetables, greenhouse and nursery products have a strong wholesale market including landscaping companies, supermarkets, garden centers and discount department stores in Connecticut and, recently, outside the state. Many of these outlets are in urban areas. The direct marketing on the urban fringe includes farmers growing tree fruits, vegetables, and berries adding bedding plants or cut flowers to their line of products. Value added products are another way of diversifying to attract customers and increase profits. Smith stresses this opportunity for adaptive behavior in New England urban fringe areas, (Smith, 1987,83-4) .I n Connecticut, cider,jellies ,jams ,pies , vinegar, giftbaskets ,wreath san dshippin gpack sar efrequentl y associatedwit hfarm s havinglarg e acres of tree fruits. Usually value is added to the farm's own products. Once an outlet becomes popular, the farmer is tempted to diversify by purchasing perhaps dried herbs or maple syrup from neighbors or even epicurean foods or kitchen utensils from wholesalers.Th e state'snin ebonde dvineyard sar etouris t attractions marketingthei rwin e directly to the public from salesrooms. Most give tours and sell associated products such as wine books. Increasingly, Connecticut wine is present in the state's liquor stores. No vineyards have diversified into growing agricultural products other than grapes, but as might be expected, two now advertize pick-your-own grapes. One of the fastest growing types of direct marketing in the late 1980s was Cut-Your- Own Christmas trees.Th e direct marketing directory for 1989 lists nearly 150outlet s for Cut-Your-Own Christmas trees, most of which are specialist farms. Tree farms tend to be either retirement operations for former dairy farmers in rural areas or part-time pre- development enterprises in the suburbs.Rura l Litchfield County has thepluralit y of these farms, which accounts partly for its second ranking in total direct marketing outlets (Figure 1). Dig-your-own is an even more recent innovation. It is limited to chrysanthemums, ornamental evergreens and shrubsfo r the suburban gardener andrepresent s another effort 85 of growers to diversify to meet anticipated consumer demand. A variety of other single purpose enterprises market directly to the public. The 1989 Directory lists twenty farms, mainly in Litchfield County, where consumers can buy maple syrup, fifteen to buy honey, six to buy lamb,fou r for wool, four for eggs, two for pork,thre efo r herbs,an don eeac hfo r Angusbeef ,ducks ,smoke dmeats ,specialt ymeats , rabbits, tofu dips, sod, hay, mushrooms, ice cream and lumber. Direct Marketing asa Response toUrbanizatio n and Declining Agricultural Sectors Crops having a high value per acre, such as berries, tree fruit, vegetables, nursery and greenhouse products and tobacco, sustain agriculture in some but not all of the urban fringe areas of Connecticut. Direct marketing opportunities andlocationa l inertia account for the spatial pattern. It is, however, the presence of a large regional market, including the New York Metropolitan area, that encourages egg production and may in future sustain the wholesaling of nursery and greenhouse products. It is not sufficient to arrest the state's long term decrease in farms and farmland. In 1987 fruits and vegetable accounted for only 5.7 percent of the state's sales of agricultural products.Thei rvalu eincrease d only slightly between 1982an d 1987wherea s the growth rate for all the State's products was 25.4percen t (U.S.Censu s of Agriculture, 1987, 184-187). The state's egg industry kept pace with the state's growth rate. So did tobacco, long in decline because of competition to its natural leaf cigar wrappers and binders from homogenized substitutes. Dairy products actually declined in value for the first time in 1987 and lost its number one ranking. The decrease of agricultural land in Connecticut from 1,600,000 acres in 1944 to 400,000 acres today is closely associated with the regional shift in dairy production from southern New England to Vermont and northern New York state. Dairying, still using three-quarters of the agricultural land in the state, is now located through the attrition process in rural northeastern and northwestern Connecticut. In Connecticut, asBerr yfoun d inIllinois ,dairyin gi n sensitive to urbanization (Berry, 1979). Neither egg production, which uses little space, nor tobacco growing, which has relinquished seven-eighths of its acreage since 1954, has attracted dairy farmers as an alternative occupation. Growing berries, tree fruit, vegetables,nurser y products orChristma s trees has been aviabl eoptio n for dairy farmers whose other alternatives include renting land to other fanners, growing hay for dairy support or pasturing a few head of cattle. Evidence from the survey of farmers practicing direct marketing shows that a quarter of them had been dairy farmers. In Litchfield County, historically the state's leading dairying area, ten of eighteen respondents providing usable data on this question were dairy farmers. There, the change was steady with some dairymen exiting in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. The only other county where enough former dairy farmers answered the survey to draw any conclusion was New Haven County. Here seven of thirteen respondents had been dairy farmers. Four stoppe,d dairying and adopted direct marketing before World War II and the other two in the 1950's. This early response to the opportunity for direct marketing indicates the age of the practice in urban areas. Other evidence suggests that farmers who give up dairying do not seem particularly interested in adopting direct marketing.Th e 1989direc t marketing directory records only one of the 63 dairy farmers who exited under the Dairy Termination program of 1986. The StateDepartmen t of Agriculture provided them with advice as to what opportunities could pursue in farming and viewed two-thirds as potentially able to direct market effectively. The report suggests that few farmers expressed much interest (Connecticut 86 Department ofAgriculture , 1986).Man ywh ogiv eu pdair y fanning areo fretiremen tage . They usually continue to grow hay and field corn to sell to other farmers. A few have found a suburban demand for baled hay and are happy to fill this direct marketing niche. Two-fifths of the one hundred and four respondents considered themselves not to be farmers previously. Manyo f these,wer ean dstil lare ,part-tim efarmer s whostarte ddirec t marketing excess produce from a garden plot or acquired suburban land to practice a hobby. In Connecticut, part-time fanning is not associated with full-time farmers taking urban jobs as Vail found in Maine (Vail, 1987, 27-28). Land on the urban fringe is expensive in Connecticut butth epart-tim e farmer has ahom ewit h thelan d and thedirec t marketing opportunity as a bonus. As Johnston and Bryant found in Ontario, hobby farmers in Connecticut often seekt obecom efull-tim e farmers (Johnston &Bryant , 1987, 17). Those who do not buy a large enough operation may find difficulty in achieving economic viability. The remaining one-third of the respondents were full-time farmers other than dairy farmers who adopted direct marketing. Half of these simply added direct marketing to a wholesaling operation, usually tree fruit but sometimes vegetables.Other s adoptedne w products as well as marketing methods. Only three gave up tobacco production, a significantly low figure since much abandoned tobacco land in Hartford county is ideal for berries and vegetables.Unfortunately , orperhap s fortunately, iti s also themos tprim e land for housing subdivisions. / Promoting direct marketing is official state policy. As urban pressure on agricultural land grows and dairying fails to stabilize, direct marketing to take advantage of urban opportunities looms large as a means of perpetuating agriculture in Connecticut. The Connecticut Department of Agriculture supports theproductio n of berries,tre e fruits and vegetables with a lively "Connecticut Grown" promotional campaign. The Direct Marketing directories advertise opportunities for consumers and a separate brochure advertises 21 farmers' markets located around the state. The Connecticut Regional Market, administered by the Department of Agriculture wherefarmer s can selldirectl y toth epublic ,i sa longstandin ginstitution . Since 1980,th e Department has adopted a logo for pens, posters, price tags and labels for produce sold in supermarkets and retail outlets. Connecticut Grown public service announcements are broadcast over the television andinvolv e advertisement forparticula r products according to season—strawberries in June, apples from September to November, and wine in October andNovembe r for example. Connecticut alsoha s "Connecticut AgricultureDay " at the State Capitol in March, among many promotional events. The Department of Agriculture has also focused on finding niches in which farmers may produce to meet demand. A 1978 State Act established the wine industry by enabling farmers to sell wine and the industry is slowly expanding as the wines gain acceptance.Unde r the Broccoli Project, theDepartmen t of Agriculturerecruite d farms to grow broccoli, a crop identified as in high demand in the market-place. Growers were guaranteed a market and technical assistance from the Connecticut Experiment Station in New Haven and the University of Connecticut Extension Service in Storrs. In 1989, 40 participating fanners planted 100 acres of broccoli. The latest attempt sponsors fancy peppers, special greens, herbs and carrots with tops to be grown by a scattering of farmers throughout the state. Prospects Despite the best efforts of agribusiness interests, direct marketing of fruits, berries and 87 vegetables did not increase between 1984 and 1987 (U.S. Census). Paul Waggoner, Director of the Connecticut Experiment Station, suggests that the opportunity for direct marketing has not been grasped, especially in Fairfield County (Waggoner, 1986). Another Connecticut Experiment Station study, which projects enormous profits per acre from direct marketing, has been greeted with farmer skepticism. The authors argue that to meet current demand, farmers could harvest 11,000 additional acres and realize $13 million in additional net income. Furthermore if consumers adopted proposed menus replete with Connecticut grown fruits and vegetables, their annual consumption would increase four times and 123,000additiona l acreswoul db erequire d (Stephense tal , 1988). In fact, opportunities doli ei ndietar y changes toinclud e fruits andvegetables . Shortridge and Shortridge show that fresh produce is increasingly prevalent in the American diet. They also conclude that there is regional variation in the adoption of new varieties and produce is shipped around the country by large wholesalers who respond quickly to changing demand (Shortridge & Shortridge, 1989,78-98) . Direct marketing is likely toremai n small scale, niche-oriented and dependent on local, as well as regional consumer habits. The survey shows that farmer adoption of direct marketing hasoccurre dsteadil y overth eyear s although peaks occurredi nth emi d 1970's and theearl y 1980's among thoseno wpracticin g it.Onl y 6o f the 113peopl e responding to the survey question: "Will you give updirec t marketing?" said they would. Most cited age as the reason. Only one questioned its profitability. As regards problems, those surveyed did not usually identify profitability as their major problem. Some found vandalism, which is variable in occurrence in suburban towns, to be of major concern (Rickard, 1986). Most identified the weather, (1989 had a wet spring which washed out crops) and environmental concern over spraying as their major problems. One negative effect of being in a suburban area and selling to people who pass the farm can be local consumer awareness of sprayingfrequency . Farmers can spray atnight , campaign thatth e sprays are benign, or reduce spraying herbicides, pesticides, color enhancers etc. Farmer responses indicate also that they see organically raised or chemical free produce as a marketing niches and predict that growing public awareness of health hazards from food will create a preference for locally grown food of known origin. Direct marketers will continue to adjust their operations. Fifty-four of 114 who responded toth equestion : "Willyo u expand?"indicate d theywoul dd oso .Mos t intended further diversification. Greenhouses and raspberries were the most frequently mentioned additions. The long term prospect is that direct marketing will not meet state goals for the preservation of agriculture in the state. Land is not the major problem. The 10,000 acres of land preserved under the State's Purchase of Development Rights Program are now largely underused former dairyfarm s beyond theurba nfring e wherelan di scheaper . As urbanization takesplace ,farm s in theinne r fringe are converted to urban uses and the urban fringe movesoutward , these acrespreserve d inperpetuit y represent future locations for direct marketing. Connecticut's agricultural competitiveness with products brought in from out of state is the major concern. The State's Food Plan adopted by the General Assembly in 1980recommende d that the statepreserv e enough land to supply 60percen t of its consumption of milk, 95 percent on a seasonal basis of fresh vegetables, 100 percent seasonally of its fresh fruit and 75 percent of its potatoes in order to "assure future food production" (Rickard, 1986, 200; Legislative Program Review and Investigation Committee, 1980).I n the past decade the state has moved no closer to this goal. Opportunities remain for entrepreneurial direct marketing. 88 ALAN DUS EPROBLE MI NTH EGLASGO WGREE NBEL T Gareth E. Jones Department of Geography, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK Abstract Thispaper examines the implicationsof aplanning applicationsubmitted by a private mining companyto extractcoal by opencast mining within the Green Belt of thecity of Glasgow, Scotland.Extraction ofminerals isnot usually permitted withinUK Green Belt areas.The land had been previously mined (in the 1930s) andreturned to agriculture. The present applicationrelated to a small area (11.8ha) and would be completedwithin 3 years. The request was complicated by thepresence of two conservationareas both of which were Sites of Special Scientific Interest.An EIA was undertakento evaluate the possible effects of the open cast mine on the area. Provided reasonablesafeguards regarding effluent pollution were taken during the development of the site it was concluded that no lasting ecologicaldamage would occur. Opportunity could also be taken to rehabilitate the site in ways which would increase the ecological and recreationalpotential of thearea. Keywords: environmental impact assessment, open-cast mining, green belt. Green Belt Policy - Restriction on Land Use Change In Britain, a fundamental concept of the physical planning of the landscape has been the existence of Green Belt areas which surround many of the larger urban areas. They first featured in Ebenezer Howard's plan for his plan for Welwyn Garden City. London County Council adopted the green belt concept in 1938 when the Abercrombie Plan for the London region provided a 16km green belt ring extending beyond the then built-up edge of the city, (Cherry, 1972); (Munton, 1983). Green belts were recognised as an element of national planning policy by o) 3 central government in 1955, (Bruton and Nicholson, 1987). Many other large cities in Britain such as Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Glasgow have since followed London's example and established green belt zones. Glasgow's Green Belt Glasgow, with a population of about 760 000 is the third largest urban area in Britain after London andBirmingham .It sorigina lmedieva llocatio nwa sa ta convenien t bridging point of theRive r Clyde but theconurbatio n has sinceexpande d tofill muc h of the Clyde Basin, confined by high ground which rises to 500metre s to the north, and 382m to the south and east while the western edge is formed by the Clyde Estuary, see Fig.1 . In spite of an extensive extractive and heavy industrial heritage, (now virtually extinct), the land around Glasgow has, for the most part, retained an open, agricultural structure. 89 Campsie Fells . —.Maximum e vati lUrban areas •elevation 3ÜLJ382 „- 500£o«m •—nGree' n belt 382m Figure 1.Locatio n of Glasgow Conurbation within the Clyde Basin In the early 1970s a new demand for private housing resulted in extreme pressure being placed on land immediately outside the Glasgow city boundary. This pressure was only partly resisted. In 1976 green belt policy was coordinated when regional government reorganisation resulted in the creation of Strathclyde Region. Prior to 1976,abou t 500h a of green belt land was lost to private housing each year while after 1976 the figure declined to less than 50 ha. The Physical Planning Department of the newly formed region quickly established a formal Green Belt zone which by the mid-80s extended to some 100 000 ha, see Fig. 2. The purpose of the green belt as defined in the Strathclyde Structure Plan Update, (Strathclyde Regional Council, 1986) is: 1. to control the growth of built-up areas and complement the process of urban renewal land, 2. prevent neighbouring towns from merging, 3. preserve the special character of towns and villages including their landscape setting, 4. protect agricultural land from development and create the necessary stability for its enhancement, 5. provide for the enjoyment of the countryside. However, the changing European policies applied to land use suggest that the retention of land for specific use by agriculture need no longer be given priority. Furthermore, improved land engineering methods allow landscapes to be modified in accordance with new requirements. These changes can be completed quickly and with minimal environmental impact. In many cases,particularl y where land may have been scarred by previous industrial use,th ere-profile d landscape can attain greater valuet o contemporary society. Solesbury, (1986) has argued that the role of the green belt is to act as a brake on land use change and not to serve as a complete ban on change. 90 10km area Figure 2. Glasgow's Green Belt Green belt case study, Lochwood open cast development The former industrial wealth of Clydeside was based upon the substantial coal deposits of the area. Coal mining around Glasgow became uneconomic in the 1940s when the surface coal deposits became depleted. There remain, however, very substantial thin seams (1-3 metres) of coal throughout the area some of which are worked by means of extensive open cast operations. Noope n castminin g is,i n theory, allowed to takeplac e within thegree n belt although some small exceptions have been permitted. In 1981, private mining companies became aware of commercially viable coal deposits at depths of up to 30 m beneath the green belt. One site in particular has been the object of repeated attempts to obtain planning permission for open cast coal mining. The remainder of the paper deals with an Environmental Impact Assessment which the author undertook in connection with the planning application for open cast mining at Lochwood , an area of 11.8 hectares. The site in question is known as Lochwood Farm. It lies to the north east of the suburb of Easterhouse some 10k m north east of the city centre of Glasgow as shown in Fig. 3.No t only does this site lie within the green belt but in the near vicinity there are three shallow lakes or lochs about 1 m deep, geomorphological features called kettle holes,remnant s from the Ice Age.Th e lakes are unusual in the west of Scotland in being nutrient rich and alkaline, (pH > 7.0) and as such, two have been designated Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) while the third, (Lochend Loch), forms the central attraction of a Country Park. A Land Use Capability Classification, (Soil Survey, 1977) was completed for the area in which the best areas scored no higher than 4 (on a scale where l=best and 7= worst). Where slope exceeded 15°, land quality declined to 5g, (limited by gradient), while in the wetter, peaty drainage channels to 5w (limited by wetness). 91 Site of proposed mine I Urban area Figure 3.Locatio n of Proposed Coal Mine Secondly, an assessment of landscape quality was made. An accurate, and totally objective analysiso f thelandscap ehas ,unti lrecently , beena difficul t task.A tLochwood , arecentl ydevise dLandscap eAssessmen ttechnique ,(Countrysid eCommissio nDocumen t 18, 1987) was used. The result indicated that the site was a rolling lowland used mainly for pasture. It was a diverse landscape, containing relics of a previous mining industry, shelterbelts, hedgerows (in poor repair), farm buildings, streams, pylons and, along the eastern extremity, amotorway .Th eminin grelic s comprised theforme r mine shaft which had beencovere d by aconcret e slab,an dth eremain s of a small spoilheap ,flattene d and mostly overgrown. These features were not obtrusive. From a subjective checklist of terms the landscape could be described as being of: small scale open exposure simple variety balanced harmony calm movement managed texture ordinary rarity value muted colour safe security bland stimulus pleasant but ordinary vista. Potential Environmental Problems Thereques t toextrac tcoa lfro m theLochwoo d areawoul d berelativel y non-controversial were it not for four complicating features. These are: 1. ecological and environmental problems due to the presence of Bishop Loch SSSI immediately to the north-west and Woodend Loch SSSI to the north-east of the proposed open cast site, 92 2. visibility problems associated with traffic flows along the motorway running north/south along the eastern extremity of the site, 3. disturbance to recreational land use in the country park to the east of the motorway, and 4. Thecreatio n of noise anddus tpollutio n toa larg eurba n area,Easterhouse , some 2k m to the west of the site and the associated danger to children from the proximity of an industrial site. Environmental Impact Assessment An EIA was prepared in order to evaluate the four main problems which would emerge if mining were to proceed. 1. Bishop Loch and WoodendLoch Theseloch swa s designated Siteso f Special Scientific Interest (SSSI)i n 1971o nth e basis of their well established marginal flora, prolific and diverse fauna in the open water and their use by numerous roosting and nesting birds. The boundaries of the SSSIs include important fen/swamp habitat with very little disturbance and eutrophication (the addition of fertilizers from agricultural sources). The marginal flora is dominated by patches of common reed and reedmace with a variety of sedges among which the bottle sedge is most common. Vegetation of similar type can be found elsewhere in Scotland but it is very unusual to find it present so near to a large urban area and in the context of the Glasgow District it could be classified as a rare vegetation type. From an ecological viewpoint this habitat is worthy of conservation. Concern was expressed that the 30 m excavation necessary for the open cast mining operation might cause a substantial lowering of the water table. The consequence might be a progressive transfer of water from Bishop Loch into the open cast mine. 2. Motorway Aserie s ofcompute rgenerate dintervisibilit y maps showedtha tview sfro m the motorway to the west (and hence over the proposed open cast site) were possible but only from certain vantage points. For vehicles travelling at 110kp h (the motorway speed limit in Britain) the mine would be in view for a maximum of 15 seconds. There appears no practicalwa y torestric t thevie wo f travellers alongth emotorway .I t should benote d that mining operations would extend downwards for 30 m, thus concealing some of the extraction process. 3. The Country Park Fears were expressed that the open cast mine would form a visual eye-sore for visitors at the park. The computer generated intervisibility maps have shown this to be untrue. 4. EasterhouseUrban Area Theresident s wereconcerne dtha tth efollowin g environmental deterioration wouldoccur : increase in heavy vehiclemovements ;increas e in noise and dustpollutio n levels;dange r tochildre n whomigh t fall into the excavation. Prescribed routes for vehicles and specific management techniques for noisean ddus twoul densur etha tn odeterioratio n wouldoccu r in these areas. Lorry access (both loaded and empty) would occur from an easterly direction. The open cast site would be protected by a security fence and a guard would prevent unauthorised access. Mining would take two years followed by a one year 93 landscape rehabilitation project. Results of Ecological Evaluation A summary of the environmental monitoring and data collection undertaken for theEI A are presented below. Noise levels would increase around the mine during the working day. Projected noise contours suggested that over much of the area this increase would not exceed 5 decibels over an existing base level of 60 dBA. Air pollution would be of two forms: gaseous and particulate matter. The increase in gaseous pollution would be negligible. Particulate matter, (dust), can be more problematical, seeWorl dHealt hOrganisation ,publicatio n No.8 0(1984 )Som evegetatio n surfaces in the immediate vicinity would become dust covered particularly in the drier times of the year. The dust particle size would not be sufficiently small to block the stomata of leaves. The frequency of rain in the west of Scotland would ensure a rapid washing out of atmospheric dust particles. Protection of Bishop Loch SSSI. The SSSI comprises approximate 35 ha of base rich open water and fen swamp. It has been the subject of a biological survey, (Morgan and Roberts, 1984). The plant and animal life to be found at Bishop Loch is not unique to Scotland nor indeed to the region. Whenjudge d in its o)o& context as part of Glasgow District it does, however, become a rare commodity and one which planners and conservationists would rightly chose to protect. Site Rehabilitation Rehabilitation could begin as soona sminin goperation s hadceased . Bytradition ,th elan d would be restored to its former condition. However, at this site several alternative strategies were examined. 1. agricultural over-production withinth eE Co f graincrop san ddair yproduct s suggested that the return of land to agriculture was unnecessary. 2. opportunity existed to rehabilitate the land to provide a range of additional habitats which would enhance the conservation potential of the existing SSSIs. 3. The existing country park could be extended to include a more varied series of habitats. 4. Greater local community involvement would be possible if the site was converted to a community farm or community woodland project. The redesign of the area should bear in mind the following: 1. any proposals must not be to the detriment of the adjacent SSSIs. The new landscape should complement the existing resource and help reduce pressures on it 2. a demand exists for informal countryside recreation in the area which cannot be met by the existing country park. 3. a demand exists for fishing by local anglers which cannot be satisfied by existing facilities. 4. thepossibilit y exists of increasing bothrecreationa l potential and the wildlife potential of the area. 5. there would be enormous scope for educational activities by local schools as the new 94 landscape developed. Rehabilitation Scenarios Three possible landscapereconstructions wer e presented as an indication of the potential offered by the site. Wetland Scenario - in which emphasis would be placed upon increasing the wildlife potential of the site.Th e landscape wouldcompris e aserie so f shallow ponds andmarsh y areas. Anaturall y colonising wetland isconsidere d toprovid e aleast - cost and minimum maintenance scenario. Community Woodland. The site could form an appropriate area for establishing a community woodland forGlasgow .Ecological ,recreationa l andlandscap ebenefit s would result along with educational benefits associated with a "Growing up with Trees"primar y schoolprojec t which hasprove d successful elsewhere.Gran tai di spresentl y available for establishing woodlands. A New Loch. Although the area is already well provided with open water there is a demand for angling facilities which is not being fully met. It would be possible to create a new loch with a deeper profile at Lochwood thus providing suitable water for fishing and to provide an alternative and more stable aquatic environment. Conclusion The results of the EIA described in this paper were presented to a Public Enquiry held in Glasgow in February, 1989. Consultants reports describing geological, mineralogical, hydrological and engineering considerations were also provided. All reports emphasised the need to safeguard the SSSI sites. With sympathetic site management the reports concluded that open cast mining at Lochwood would not result in site deterioration. Implementation of an environmentally sensitive rehabilitation scheme wouldresul t in the ecological upgrading of the area. Despite the technical evidence in favour of open cast mining at Lochwood , the Public Enquiry rejected thereques t for planning permission to extract coal from the Lochwood area. The reasons for the decision were as follows: 1. The area lies in the green belt zone and as such, mineral extraction is not normally allowed. Permission to mine would be seen as an important precedent for other sites. 2. Alternative open cast sites exist and the developer should investigate these locations in greater detail. 3. Theproposal s contained in theEI A are untried and have not been costed (an incorrect conclusion). 4. The consultants could not guarantee that the open cast site, if allowed to proceed, would definitely not result in environmental degradation. Because of the possibility, no matter how slight, of damage to the existing SSSIs it was considered necessary to withhold planning permission. It would appear thati n thecas e study describedi n thispape r theexistenc e of agree n belt was seen as a sufficient reason to withhold planning permission. Such an attitude is at odds with modern conservation theory which accepts that landscapes and habitats are dynamic and hence subject to natural change. Imaginative and ecologically sound rehabilitation schemes should play a part in local and national conservation policy. 95 RESPONSEO FFARMER ST OTH ELOS SO FLAN DCAUSE DB YURBA N PRESSURE Peter Lucas and G. van Oort Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands Abstract Thispaper focusses upon the effectsof lossof agriculturalland on individualfarming operations in the rural-urbanfringe. Eightyfarmers were interviewed,representing the majority offarms in the agglomerationof Utrechtwho had to sell land in theperiod 1970-1985for urban expansion. Reactionsto the changing situation were: continuation and/or adaptation,relocation and/or abandonment offarm operation.The optiontaken was less influencedby size and type offarm than by interrelatedfactors such asf arm operators' age, children to take over thefarm and personal circumstances(health). Compensation of the lossby purchase of newland in the rural-urban fringe wasa major problemfor thefarmers. Keywords: rural-urban fringe, land use, agriculture, part-time farming, relocation, abandonment, adaptation, the Netherlands, Utrecht. Introduction The pressure of urban interests on the transitional zone around the city creates specific problems for farming enterprises: the direct loss of farm land, and the difficulty of finding ane w way to make alivin g in thisenvironment . The market for agricultural land isextremel y tighti n therural-urba n fringe: farmers havever y limited opportunities tobu y land, as they compete with other actors in the land market (Bryant et aL 1985; p.52, Thomas 1990, p.134 ; Ilbery 1985). Many farmers in the rural-urban fringe have to sell their farm orpar t of theirlan d to the local government for urban expansion, andhighwa y construction (van den Berg, 1989). The results presented here are based upon a study of how these farmers remade a living after they sold their land. Did they sell their farm and abandon agriculture altogether? Did they decide to resettle in a less urbanized area? Or did they continue the farming operation at their present location and supplement their income through non- agricultural activities? The research area covered the rural-urban fringe of the agglomeration of Utrecht in the Netherlands. All the farmers (80) in this area who had sold more than one hectare (used for horticulture) or two hectares (used for other types of agriculture) in the period 1970 to 1985 were interviewed. The pressure of urban development Urban expansion is a process with a severe impact on the countryside, especially on farming enterprises. This expansion may take place at the very edge of the city, but also at some distance. For the Netherlands three phases can be distinguished according to 96 where urban development occurs. After the Second World War, most of the urban growth took place at the edge of the cities, in the rural-urban fringe. From the sixties on, however, growth took place in former small towns at some distance from a central city. These towns were designated as growth centers by the central government to accommodate the growing need for housing. Another solution for the growing need of urban land was partly sought in land reclamation, as in the polders in the former Zuiderzee, but this is a rather recent option. In the eighties, the compact city ideology prevailed, and some small-scale building occurred in the rural-urban fringe. In theperio d 1950-1980th epopulatio n of theNetherland s grew from 10t o 14million . At the same time, the demand for more spacious family houses, recreational space, and highways grew, reinforcing the demand for urban land. Development inth eagglomeratio n ofUtrech treflect s thedifferen t phaseso f expansion mentioned above. South of Utrecht, two former villages were designated as growth centers:Nieuwegein , three kilometers southwest of Utrecht; and Houten, four kilometers to the southeast. These new towns grew rapidly. Nieuwegein, for instance, had a population of 12,000i n 1970; thisros e to 37,000 in 1980 (a growth rate of 308percent) ; in 1990 the population is 58,800 (a growth rate of 57 percent). Houten was once arura l village counting 7,000 inhabitants in 1970 and only 8,600 ten years later (a growth rate of 22 percent); population growth accelerated in the eighties, and as a result there were more than 26,300 inhabitants (a growth rate of 302 percent in 1990). ' Conversion of agricultural land to urban use Loss ofrura l agricultural landi sth e inevitable consequence of these urban developments. Bryant and Russwurm have classified the effects of urban development on agriculture as direct and indirect (1979). A direct effect is the actual termination of agricultural land use. Indirect impacts are related to interactions between urban development and continuing agricultural land use,resultin gi nmodification s toth e agricultural system.Th e direct effects of urban development have been severe. In the sixties, Dutch agriculture lost 4.3percen t of its agricultural land tourba n expansion alone;fo r theUnite d Kingdom this figure was 1.8 percent (Whitby & Ollerenshaw 1988,p.20) . How does this process of land conversion actually work? Inth eNetherlands ,plannin gla wassign s animportan t taskt oloca lgovernment , embodied in the municipal council, to build housing for the local population. All building projects are executed byprivat econstructio n companies andhav et ocompl y with allocation plans initiated and approved by themunicipa l council.Thi s body has thepowe r to buy thelan d required to meet the needs for housing, road construction, industrial estates, recreational parks, sport facilities etcetera. Untill Februari 1990 each land transaction undertaken by municipalities with less than 100,000 inhabitants, had to be approved by a provincial council. This approval was based upon both planning and municipal budget feasibility criteria. Towns over 100,000 inhabitants had more autonomy to buy land, and only neededfinancial approval .Afte r February 1990,plannin gcriteri a aren olonge r ameasur e for provincial approval. This increase in municipal autonomy results in less planning influence from the province and by that a decrease in planning coordination between municipalities. Local authorities sometimes buy the land they need before the allocation plan is officially approved in order to speed upplannin g procedures.Thi s is only possible when a structure plan exists. 97 Nearly 95 percent of all land transactions are voluntary sales, even though the fanners dono tusuall y initiatethes etransactions .Price spai d for land are based onth e agricultural market value. Therefore, speculation is more or less impossible: future functions are not taken into account. The municipal council has the power to expropriate property if a landowner is reluctant to sell and the transaction is in the public interest based upon municipal plans. The prices paid when the case is settled in court are about the same as when the sale is voluntary. The prices for the farmstead, stables and barns are also based on the real agricultural market value atth e timeo f sale.I n addition tothes etangibl e elements,owner s andtenan t farmers arecompensate d for the loss of income after the sale.Thes e compensations can amount to payments equalling the income over aperio d of up to amaximu m of 12year s in case of total abandonment of the farm operation. For tenant fanners, compensation for the loss of income is the sole indemnification they are entitled to. As long as the land developer does not have to start infrastructural work, the farmer can continue his enterprise if he has an agreement with the local government. Mostly he can use the land according tohi sow n discretion, withth eunderstandin g thath ecoul dhav et oleav e within a few months.I n theagglomeratio n ofUtrecht ,som efarmer s havefarme d on atemporar y basis for almost 15 years. With the money they received for selling their holding, they enabledthei rchildre n tobu y anotherfar m elsewhere.Thoug hexceptional , such situations exist because the decision to sell often fits in well with family life-cycle development. Effects on agriculture Land is still the conditio sine qua non for agriculture; land still counts as a production factor. As mentioned earlier, urban expansion also has indirect effects on agriculture around large agglomerations: 1 Availability of land can become a real problem, thus hampering the growth and viability of the farms. 2 Farmers will have to work more dispersed parcels (fragmentation of holdings) as as the land becomes intersected by infrastructure. 3 The purchase of land for urban expansion leads to uncertainty about the future of the remaining farms in the rural-urban fringe. 4 Farmers affected by the loss of land have to adapt to the new situation, by setting up a smaller and sometimes different type of farming enterprise. Reactions of farmers How does a farmer of a registered farming enterprise react to the sale of land, and what decisions will he take in finding a way to make a living? Will he relocate to an area with less urban impacts because he has the opportunity to start a new farm far away? Or will he continue his farm in a modified way? In order to construct a framework for the questionnaire, three basic reactions were distinguished: continuation on same location, relocation, or abandonment of the farming operation. These reactions are indicated in Figure 1. Factors that were thought to influence a farmer's decision are included in this model: personal factors, farm-related factors, the land market, and assistance of (governmental) agencies. 98 a. PERSONAL FACTORS: (age, successor) b. FARM-RELATED FACTORS: (size, type, ownership, quality of land) c. LAND MARKET: (price) d. ASSISTANCE OF (GOVERNMENTAL) AGENCIES REACTIONS CONTINUATION ON THE RELOCATION ABANDONMENT SAME LOCATION FARMING OPERATION Compensation of loss of land by: - buying/renting land -keeping farmstead - adapting production with non-agricul - intensification turaljob , pension - extensification -move out , - additional activities - part-time non-agricultural job Figure 1. Model of reactions of farmers to the loss of land To be included in our survey, a farming operation had to comply with three criteria: a location: the original location of the farms was in Houten and Nieuwegein, two municipalities in the southern fringe with recent rapid urban expansion and in some smaller municipalities in the northern fringe; b size: a minimum of one hectare for horticulture, or a minimum of two hectares for other types of agriculture, was sold for urban expansion, most of it to the local government; c time: the sale of land took place between 1970 and 1985. Finding all the addresses, especially those of farmers who had retired or resettled, was a time-consuming affair. The response to the questionnaire was very high, almost 90 percent, because of a personal approach. Sometimes the interviews took more than two hours, asth e farmers were still very concerned about what had happened to their farming enterprise and to their family; the ties between work and family life are still strong in agriculture.I n somecase s thefar m had beeni n thefamil y for generations.Eight y farmers were interviewed; they may be regarded as the complete research population. Plans and actions before the actual sale In order to assess changes inplans ,th efarmer s were asked about theirplan s prior tosale . In the northern fringe, half of the farmers older than 50 years when the urban extension 99 plan was presented had already intended to abandon their fanning operation. Among those younger than 50 years,thi sfigure wa s only 25percent . In the southern fringe only a few had such plans. One-third of all the farmers who eventually abandoned their farming operation already intended to do so; they were not forced to do this because of the sale of their land. In the period of uncertainty, between having (vaguely) heard of the plans of the local government and the actual signing of the contract, only a few farmers made the decision to stop or postpone investments in their farm: most of them just went ahead with investments.Thi s might seemirrational ,bu ti ti snot :som eurba ndevelopmen t plans have taken more than ten years in the making before being implemented, and in that time many modifications can be introduced into the ultimate plan. The authorities are never surewhe n apla nwil lb eimplemented ; thisi s aconsequenc eo f thedemocrati c procedures that every plan has to follow. A drawback for the landowner and all parties involved is the uncertainty about the future. This is one of the reasons why most farmers continue investing in theirfarmin g enterprise. Agricultural advisory councils alsorecommen d this as it has no negative effect on the prices being paid for farmsteads. The interviews indicated that most farmers who only had to sell part of their land and who chose to stay and continue their farm could not start making serious plans for the new situation before they had actually sold the land. Thereaso n is uncertainty about the amount of land to be sold and the possibility of finding compensating land nearby. In order to take a decision, the fanners need information, and they seek the assistance of specialized agencies. Important sources are the farmers unions and the governmental agricultural board (Landbouwschap). Nearly one-third of the farmers got help from one of the three main farmers unions, 13 percent from other farmers, 11 percent from the agricultural board, 10 percent from lawyers, and only 5 percent from the local government. One of the main objections to the way the local government functioned in the decision process was the lack of information it provided. This led to dissatisfaction with theprocedures .Anothe robjectio n wasth elac k of interest on thepar t of government authorities in offering compensating land to the farmer. Major differences exist between municipalities regarding the degree of satisfaction expressed by thefarmer , ranging from a low of 12percen t to a high of 64percent , the latter in a municipality where the local government was attentive to the problems of the farmers. Final decision after the sale In Table 1, the percentages of land per farm sold by the three categories of farmers are given for the southern part, consisting of the two municipalities of Nieuwegein and Houten. Table 1.Farmlan d sold (as percentage of the original farm size). Percentage of land sold by three types of strategy: Continued Relocated Abandoned Total % sold % sold % sold Houten 29 40% 77% 65% Nieuwegein 18 70% 100% 86% 100 Aggregated for the southern fringe, the figures show a relation between the percentage of land sold and the final decision, but this is not a clear and direct correlation. Table 2 givesth efinal decisio n of thefarmers . Asth e southernresearc h areacovere d two separate municipalities, this distinction was retained in the statistics. The northern area covered four municipalities. The differences shown in Table 2 between the three areas can be explained by the portion of land belonging to a farm that had to be sold. In Nieuwegein on average a much greater part of the farmland had to be sold than in the other areas which explains the very low percentage of farms that could survive in one way or another in this municipality (Table 2). Table 2. Final decision of fanners. Decision of farmer to: Continue Resettle Abandon Total no. % no. % no. % Houten (S) 29 19 65% 4 15% 6 20% Nieuwegein (S) 18 2 11% 9 50% 7 39% Northern part 33 13 40% 11 35% 8 25% Total 80 34 45% 24 30% 21 25% Farmers who chose to continue: Almost half of all fanners stayed in the fringe and continued their farming operation in one way or another. Some of thereason s given by them were: "the amount of land I had to sell was too small to have an impact", "I could compensate the loss", "I want to stay in this area even if I could earn a better living elsewhere", "I have a child who wants to take over the farm and wants to live in this area". Farmers who chose to resettle: Most of the resettled fanners had to sell all or most of their land, so they had no other choice then to relocate. One would expect to find them in the northeastern parts of the Netherlands asagricultura l conditions andlan dprice s aremor efavorabl e there.However , nearly one-third of those farmers who ultimately resettled were looking for a farm near the old location. Their reasons for looking in the vicinity were of a personal nature:the y had family and colleagues there; they had children who went to school in Utrecht etcetera. Theothe rtwo-third s hadfirst looke di n areas further away.Th ereason s given bythe m were purely agro-economic: lower land prices, larger farm, higher land quality. Farmers who chose to abandon: As mentioned above, one-third of the farmers who abandoned their farm already planned tod o so before being informed of the municipalplans .Thi s implies that about two-thirds of the farmers whofinally ha d to abandon agriculture were more or less forced to do so. They left agriculture in an accelerated tempo. The reasons given by the farmers who abandoned agriculture altogether fall into three main groups: a. no children to take over. In the northern fringe, for example, 90percen t of those who abandoned had no children to take over. In the south this was 50 percent. Only 15-25 percent of the other farmers had no successor, and then mostly because children were too young. 101 b. relatively old age of farm operator. Those who abandoned had an average age of 57; the two other groups were on average 10 years younger. c. factors related to health conditions. These were quite important in the southern part. Factors influencingthe final decision It is quite remarkable that farm-related factors like type or size of farm, or quality of land (Fig. 1.) were hardly mentioned. These factors could not be traced as explanatory indicators for thefinal decisio n tocontinue ,resettle ,o r abandon. On thecontrary , farmers who decided to continue or resettle had slightly less land at the time they sold the land than the farmers who abandoned farming. The type of farm was expected to be of someinfluence , but its effects was slight. All categories (mostly dairy farming) or a combination were represented evenly among the three groups.Economi c reasons were not mentioned atal l in the northern fringe andonl y in a few cases in the southern fringe. Compensation for the loss of land As the research tookplac e someyear s after the turbulent process of selling,adapting ,an d looking for new land, it was possible to analyze the strategy of the farmers of the southern part who continued their farm or resettled elsewhere. Figure 1 shows the strategies to compensate the loss of land. The analysis shows that four types of compensation can be distinguished. Compensationfor the loss of land by buying land We compared the size of the present farm with the former size at the old location. In Table 3th edifference s between thefarmer s whoresettle d elsewhere and thefarmer s who stayed at the old location are very clear. Table 3. Compensation for loss of land by buying land (present farm size compared with former farm size) Continued farms Relocated farms Total % compensated % compensated Houten (S) 22 90% (n=19) 122% (n=3) Nieuwegein (S) 11 137% (n=2) 213% (n=9) Farmers whochos e tocontinu e at the old location in theurba n fringe of Houten wereno t able to buy enough compensating land nearby. In the end, their farm size had decreased by 10 percent. The remarkable figure for compensation in Nieuwegein is due to one case: a small farm that changed from horticulture to a somewhat larger dairy farm. Farmers who decided to fesettle elsewhere nearly doubled the size of their farm. There is an interesting and important difference between tenant farmers and farmers who own their farm. Tenant farmers face more problems, as they only get compensated for loss of income. If they choose to start again, they have to find tenure on a farm elsewhere in the Netherlands. Only one-third of all Dutch farms are tenant farms; the 102 availability of land for this type of farmers is limited. Due to governmental control, the rent is lower than the cost of comparable land purchased on a loan. Landowners, on the otherhand , haveth efinancia l capacity tochoos efro m awide rrang e of alternatives.Mos t of them will be able to buy a farm in the less urbanized eastern and northern parts of the Netherlands, where land prices are lower than in the western parts. Farmers who do not resettle face a shortage of available land in their fringe area. Compensationby adaptingthe productiontype We need some additional information to interpret Table 3, especially with regard to the differences in land compensation. Some farmers responded to the changing situation by adapting their production from mixed farming to specialized dairy farming. Such changes were not widespread: of all the farmers who continued at the same fringe location, only five turned to another specialization, each of which was more land intensive. Of the farmers who resettled only four changed the production type. They adopted a more extensive production, since they could afford more land. Compensation by intensification of landuse As there is hardly any land in the rural-urban fringe available to compensate/the loss of land, intensification seems to be the only logical solution. The indicator used to measure possible intensification compares the amount of cattle per hectare at the present location with that at the oldlocation . Thisindicato r only appliest o dairy farms (60percen t of all farms).Fo r alldair y farmers originally located in thesouther n fringe, the number of cows per hectare was 1.9. For the relocated farms, this rose to 2.3.Farmer s continuing in the fringe zone showed adramati c increase from 1.9 to 3.6.Thi s growth cannot be explained by the increase in the number of cattle. On the contrary, loss of land did not result in a smaller herd, as these farmers were reluctant to sell their capital (cattle); hence the ratio of cows per hectare rose. This behavior can be explained economically, but it is also related to the psychological uncertainty thatth e farmers had toendur e for alon g period. For farmers staying in the fringe zone, it will be very difficult to intensify their land usei n this way andkee pi t atthi slevel .Thei rrura llan dus ereached a physica llimit .Th e quota of milk regulations of the European community makes this kind of response even more unlikely for the future. Compensation by additionalactivities and/orpart-time farming Only a few farmers started additional activities:e.g. , direct marketing of eggs, milk, and fruit; leasing storage space for caravans and boats; or turning fields into allotment gardens. Because of the low absolute number of fanners involved in these activities, precise percentages cannot be given: an estimate of 10percen t or less seems reasonable. These activities do not contribute substantially to the household income. As one fanner stated, "It is just to buy myself some nice cigars for Sunday". Social contacts with the customers are often appreciated by the farmer's wife and were mentioned as areaso n for direct sales. Part-time farming was alsoa wa y to compensate for the loss of income.Thi s accounts for about 5 - 10 percent in the research areas. Part-time farming in this research was defined as agricultural income supplemented with no more than 50 percent non- 103 agricultural income. In fact, part-time farming possibly marks a beginning of a retreat from agriculture as the mean income and a conversion to hobby-farming. Conclusion The reactions of fanners to the loss of land can be sub-divided into three categories. Continuation onth eorigina l locationi n thefring e was surprisingly high (45percent) .Th e strategies of these farmers to compensate the loss of land were quite diverse. It seems that the adjustments made byth efarmer s represent aninteri m situation, asurba n pressure onth erural-urba n fringe doesno tappea rt ob edecreasing . Somestrategie s aretemporary , as the physical limits torura l land use have been reached. As a result of urban pressure, a more heterogeneous agriculture is developing in the fringe. Acknowledgment Theresult spresente d in thiscontributio n arebase do n tworesearc h projects inwhic h five M.A. studentsparticipated . These investigations arereporte d in Groen,Luca s & Schmidt (1985) and Dickhout & De Louw (1989). 104 L. CHANGES IN TYPES OF SETTLEMENT IN BELGRADE FRINGE Vladimir Macura Faculty of Forestry, Belgrade, Yugoslavia Abstract Belgrade, the capital of Yugoslavia, was a very strong immigrationcenter in last fifty years. Simultaneously with transitionin country'spopulation from rural to urban,the physical characteristics of settlements were beingchanged, especiallyin fringe zonesof big cities. The decline of villages and agriculture have been recorded. Instead of traditionalvillages we registereda new type - mixed settlement. Analyzed data - %of urbanland use,and %of urbanpopulation (census 1961,1971,1981.) in 181 settlements within Greater Belgrade - have shown the following: a) in 1961 Greater Belgrade consistedof 91 rural,79 mixed and 11 urban settlements. Sincethen the greatest growth was evident in mixed settlement, whose numbergrew to 132 in 1981. Villages declined to23, and urbansettlements grew to 26. b) Withinthe group of 132mixed Settlement in 1981we noticedfour types:modernized village (61s.), pseudo-urbansettlement (54s.), semi-urbantype (51s.) and2 authenticmixed settlement. Keywords: rural-urban fringe, settlement, land use, population, settlement type, town- planning, geography, Yugoslavia, Belgrade. An introduction to Belgrade's settlements This paper presents a part of the results of research into the types of settlement in Belgrade fringe. The ultimate purpose of this research, which is still in the process, is to recommend measures which will helpi n preserving theenvironment , having a controlled developmento f thesettlement sfabri c anda mor emeaningfu l landuse .Th eare a subjected to our research is the Administrative Area of the City Belgrade - i.e. Great Belgrade, or the Belgrade region, in functional terms.Fig . 1show s this area. Great Belgrade consists of 16municipalities , 10o f which maketh e city of Belgradeitself , whereas the remaining 6 are small independent cities. The municipalities are divided into settlements. At the territory of Great Belgrade there are 181 such units. In the open areas, they are villages andothe r settlements with their surrounding land. In case of the developed area, they are citypart so f themunicipalitie s Theentir e area of GreatBelgrad e can,i nfunctiona l terms, be taken as a big regional city (Herbert, 1982). Total population of Great Belgrade in 1981 was 1,450,000, whereas the population of the core was 1,190,000 (Kostic, 1985). Other places had about 260,000 inhabitants. The growth ofBelgrad e shouldb etake n ina broader , national context.Wit h somewhat over 45% of urbanpopulatio n in 1981(Vresk , 1986),an dwit h about onethir d employed in the three main economic sectors, Yugoslavia is in an expansive phase of its urbanization process. This period is characterized by intensive migrations from villages to towns.Th e share of new comers in urban population is in the range from 40 to70% , 105 depending on the city. Thefigure fo r Belgrade is 67%(Krstic , 1979).Traditionally strong city centers and regional centers are particularly attractive for settlement. In Serbia, twelve agglomeration zones have been identified, stretching along river valleys and around big centers (Perisic, 1985). Belgrade, of cause, is the leading area of this type. The growth of population is low only in the central place -the city of Belgrade, but it is much higher in other settlements within the Great Belgrade territory. There is acircl eo f places around the central city which had population growth indexes above the average in the period 1971-1981. CONTINUALLY DEVELOPED FABRIC OF BELGRADE VILLAGES INCORPORATED INTO • BELGRADE URBAN FABRIC SINCE 1815-1981 MOTORWAYS E7 0 & E7 5 HIGHWAY LOCAL ROAD _l RAILWAY URBAN LAND USE MLÀDENOVAC MM3 FOREST CENTRE OF SMALL SETTLEMENTS AIRPORT Figure 1. Great Belgrade Area in 1981. The changes have shown that a number of traditional villages have gradually changed their character and are being fully integrated in urban fabric and transformed (Book, 1987).Fig. 1als o shows thecontinuall y developed fabric of Belgrade with villages which have been turned into urban fabric in the period since 1815.Th e urban fabric has, thus, expanded on the account of the surrounding undeveloped land. On the other side, within theresearc h area, traditional, authentic village whoselif e isi nful l accord with nature and agricultural activities has been registered. Between these two extremes, there is a transitional settlement type, places which are neither villages nor cities to a full extent, or in other words, places which have characteristics of both extreme types. These settlements have been named mixed settlements and a respective definition was created for them anduse d inpas t decades when censuses ofpopulatio n and settlements werehel d in Yugoslavia (Macura, 1954). In fact, the territories of mixed settlements surrounding a big city of regional type 106 make the fringe area. Here we obviously use one of those denominations of a fringe according to which it is the area of transitionfrom rural to urban (Bryant et.al., 1985). In space terms,i trefer s to the area situated between acontinuall y developed urban fabric and a recognizable rural land space.I n thisresearch , duet opractica lreasons , defined as a possible fringe area was the belt between the continually developed Belgrade area (Perovic, 1976), and the border of the Administrative Area of the City Belgrade. Our hypothesis was that this belt, also contains villages and that thefringe, therefore,lies between thesevillages and the continually developedfabric of Belgrade. Such a definition immediately brought about the question of the dynamic component of the fringe. On the one hand, it is not unlikely that the border to villages may change as time goes by, just like it is well-known that the border of the developed city fabric moves with time. This was the reason why we decided to consider the subject of the fringe and settlements through three points in time - through the data provided by censuses in 1961, 1971 and 1981. The scope of research Settlements in Belgrade fringe were the subject of our research. We were interested in the number of such types of settlement in the Belgrade area, in their main characteristics and,finally, ho w thenumber s of individual typeso f settlementchange di n the saidthre e time slides (1961, 1971, 1981). / Framework for the fringe's settlements In order to be able to carry out this research, it was necessary to establish specific definitions of the types of settlement. Old definitions were not suitable for our purpose because,o nth eon ehand ,the yrelie donl yo ndemographic-sociological-economi c criteria, and, on the other hand, their range of types was too narrow. A rather detailed cluster analysis (Bogosavljevic, 1981), assured us that it was necessary to have such a theoretical model of providing definitions which would, on the one hand, reflect the entirety of settlements as a system, instead of just presenting its social component, and which will, on the other hand, enable very fine typological differentiation of settlements. The third important criterion, at last, was a simplicity of the model, its easy applicability and reliance on the existing data. These were the reasons for which individual types of settlement were defined on the basis of two variables only: a) the share (%) of urban population in the settlement, and (b) the share (%) of urban land use in the settlement. Taking these two indicators into account, definitions of different types of settlement were established, from village, through mixed settlement, to the city. We first defined the extreme cases - absolute village and absolute city. An absolute village is a settlement with 0% urban population and 0% urban land use. On the other side, opposite to village, there is an absolute city, with 100% urban population and 100% urban land use. In a two-coordinate chart (Fig. 2a), where the values of the share of urbanpopulatio n in the settlement are given on the horizontal, and the values of the share of urban land use in the settlement are given on the vertical, it is obvious that the previously defined city and village will be in the diagonally opposing angles. The entire space between these two extreme points belongs to those types of settlements with which the ratio between the two variables may range from 0:100% and, vice versa, from 100:0%.Show n inFig .2 a is this largepotentia lfield reserved for transitional forms from village to urban settlements, i.e. for mixed 107 Settlements (Macura, 1989). In order that aconstructio n like this,whic h can truly have an infinite numbero f types, can be meaningful in practical application of a research, it was necessary to somehow scale the variables which describe the individual types. Thus, for the purpose of simplicity, wedivide d the shares of urbanpopulatio n andurba n land usei nth e settlement into low, medium and high. Measured in numbers, if a settlement has up to 33% of either urban population or urban land use, we count it as a low share. A medium is the share between 33 and 66%,an d a high is the share above 66%. Such limits entered into the previous figure (2a) provide a division of all settlements into nine basic types (Fig. 2b). These are: SHARE OF URBAN POPULATION SHARE OF URBAN POPULATION 100V. •OV. 33V. 66V. 100V . TYPE1 TYPE2 TYPE3 AUTHENTIC MODERNIZED PSEUDO- CO RURAL VILLAGE URBAN 3 TYPE4 TYPE5 TYPE6 Figure 2. Typology for the fringe's settlements. type1 -authentic rural settlement - a settlement with low shares of urban population and urban land use. This is a settlement which is commonly referred to as village; type 2 - modernized village - a mixed type settlement in which the share of urban population is medium and the share of urban land use is still low; type 3 -pseudo-urban settlement - also a mixed type settlement in which the share of urban population is very high, at area l city level, but the share of urban land use is still low, as with the authentic rural settlement; type 4 - semi-rural settlement - a mixed type settlement with a low share of urban population, but with a medium share of urban land use; type 5 - authentic mixed settlement - a settlement which has a balanced relationship between urban population and urban land use but in medium proportions; 108 type 6 - semi-urbansettlement - also belongs to mixed type settlements but has a high share of urban population and a medium share of urban land use; type 7 -pseudo-rural settlement- also a mixed settlement but with a low share of urban population and a high share of urban land use. Most frequently, it is a devastated traditional village which has not yet changed the type of employment of its local population; type 8 - town - a mixed settlement type with a high share of urban land use and a medium share of urban population; type9 - city - a settlement of urban character with a high share of urban population and a high share of urban land use; Before presenting the results of the research, it is necessary to give two more interpretations. One explains what is implied by "urban population", and the other by "urban land use". To determine the percentage of urban population in the total, we used the standard definition of the Yugoslav Federal Statistical Bureau used in censuses. It concerns the population which supports itself by working in non-agricultural sector. Therefore, it is possible to find both urban and non-urban population in any type of settlement, be it a city or a village. In determining the urbanland use, we followed a similar procedure as in determining the urban population. It should be known that, unlike urban population, urban land does not have an official definition in Yugoslavia. The definition which we used in our work was the following: the total land area is divided into two large parts. One consists of the land which is usedfo r urban purposes or is related to such use.Thi s landcomprise s a)develope d urban fabric (asdefine d byPerovic , 1976) and b)lan d areas which are directly related to city functions, system, structure and setting. These are 1) traffic terminals,airports ,freigh t andmarshallin gyards ,etc. ,2 )motorway s andhighways , 3) corridors of strong infrastructure systemso f regional and metropolitan significance, 4) industrial zones, 5) garbage depots, 6) coal, gravel, sand, etc. extraction fields, 7) zones with weekend houses, 8)coasta l recreational areas,9 )park-forest s andfores t parts which areuse dfo rrecreatio npurpos eonly , 10)militar ypolygons .Th eaforementione d definition clearly indicates that urban land use in this case implies not only what is of direct urban character but also what is close to Lefevr's definition of urban (Lefevr, 1974). The land in the sense of this definition isreferre d to as "urban land' in this paper, and the variable used is likewise called "the percentage of urban land in the total". The other part of the landcomprise s allothe rlan d areas,mostl yrural .B yanalog y tourba nland ,i t should refer to all land areas which are in function of the village or serve the village. Fig. 1show s themos timportan tlan dbelt swhic h areuse dfo rurba npurposes .Suc h adefinitio n allows for urban land,jus t like urban population, to be found in any type of settlement, village included, if such land is related to non-agricultural activities and if it serves the city. Research results Our first task was toestablis h the number of types of settlement which exist in Belgrade territory, whether there are all,o rjus t some,theoretica l types.W eentere d thedat a on the proportionate shares of urban population and urban land use for each settlement in the 109 two-coordinate system which we described earlier. We did it three times, for three different time points, for census years 1961, 1971 and 1981. The result obtained is presented in Figure 3.Th e number of cases for each type is given in the lower left angle of the square of the respective type. It is clearly noticeable that in the first two censusyears there were five out ofnine possible hypotheticaltypes: authentic village, modern village, pseudo-urban settlement, semi-urban settlement and authentic city. In the last census year,another type of settlement appears - authentic mixed settlement. In other words, in the Belgrade area, neither semi-rural or pseudo-rural settlements are found, nor the settlement which we called 'town'. These data have clearly shown that the main direction of changes from authentic rural to authentic urban primarily follows the line of changes within the population - from rural to urban - and only then the line of changes in the land use. 1961 1971 1981 V. OF URBAN POPULATION V. OFURBA N POPULATION V. OF URBAN POPULATION 0 33 66 100 0 33 66 100 0 33 66 100 UJ o WO *§ 0 0 11 »'• 0 0 26 ,j 0 0 26-. ;:• Figure 3. Distribution of settlement types in 1961, 1971,an d 1981. It is characteristic that the most numerous in 1961 were authentic villages (91 cases), whereas in 1981 they were modernized villages (61 cases), i.e. mixed settlements. The number relation between authentic andmixe d settlement isshow n alsoi nFig .3 .I twoul d seem superfluous to give a comment concerning an intensive and accelerated process of disappearance of authentic rural world and creation of a mixed, fifty-fifty economy culture, on creation of ane w world which is urban by employment of its population, but remains predominantly rural by the milieu in which they live. The figures on the reduction of rural settlements, from 91 to 23, andincreas e of mixed settlements,fro m 79 to 130, speak for themselves. Finally, we were equally interested in the distribution of these three main types of settlement. Our assumption was confirmed that the fringe belt, taken as a spacial phenomenon, coincides with mixed settlements. Figures 4, 5, and 6, in which the distribution of the three main types of settlement is shown? clearly indicate that mixed settlements form an almost regular circle around the central city - Belgrade. From year to year the circle expands from the center towards theperiphery . On the other side,thre e independent cities in the Belgrade region -Obrenovac ,Lazareva c and Mladenovac (tob e seen in Figure 1) are also surrounded with small circular fringes made of mixed settlements. The phenomenon obviously behaves like concentric waves of a pond in which stones have been thrown. In the last year described, 1981, fringes of all central places,becom ejoine d together, having fully destroyed the stripes of villages that used to separate them. 110 ^•H URBANSETTLEMEN T W/S/ïàRURA L SETTLEMENT I IMIXE D SETTLEMENT 1^-^ BOUNDARYO FSETTLEMEN T 1 " 1CENTR EO FSMAL LSETTLEMEN T N.B.SAM E LEGENDI SALS OFO R / FIG.5AN DFIG .6 . Figure 4. Great Belgrade with three main types of settlement in 1961. Figure 5. Great Belgrade with three main types of settlement in 1971. Ill Figure 6. Great Belgrade with three main types of settlement in 1981. Conclusion The research in this field is still going on and the conclusion, therefore, will be provisional: - with the growth of the degree of urbanization of the country, changes take place not only in the central city of aregio n but in the majority of settlements within it, as well, - changes taking place in settlements can be monitored through two variables: the share of urban population in the settlement and the share of urban land in the settlement,-settlement s changefro m rural tourba n bychangin gthei rpopulation sfirs t and only then the forms of land use, - the changes are not rapid, for which reason mixed settlements are clearly noticed in between the extreme types, villages and cities; - mixed settlements mutually differ byth e sizeo f urban population andurba n land, -i n theperio d observed, thenumbe ro f villages decreases,wherea s thenumbe ro f mixed settlements and urban settlements are on the rise. Such developments, which basically rely on changes within economic characteristics of the population, create an imbalance between the population's employment and forms of land use. Precious land is underutilized for food production, whereas on the other hand, the population is interested injobs in two other economic sectors - secondary and tertiary. The facts presented here are inspiring. They provoke additional questions and a newresearc h which wouldb erequire dt oroun dof f our ideao n thephenomena , processes and relations within city fringes in Serbia. 112 LOCAL PLANNING AND THE ROLE OF RURAL LAND IN METROPOLITAN REGIONS: THE EXAMPLE OF THE TORONTO AREA Michael F. Bunce University of Toronto, Scarborough College, Scarborough, Ontario, Canada Abstract Land useplanning in much of NorthAmerica remainsprimarily a localresponsibility. It is argued therefore that, in the analysisof rural land use change inNorth American metropolitan areas, more attention should be paid to the role of the local planning system.Examination of a localmunicipality in theToronto urban fringe revealspolicies which appear to preserve agriculturalland. However, in the implementation of these policies, agricultural designations tend to be used as holding categoriesfor future development,while urban-rural boundaries appear to be devices for phasingdevelopment rather thanprotecting rural land. This suggestsa redefinitionof the role of rural land to satisfy the needs of metropolitan decentralisation rather than to conserve rural resources. Keywords: local planning, rural land, metropolitan regions, Toronto, Canada. Introduction Thenatur e andfunctio n ofrura l landi nexpandin gmetropolita nregion si s anissu ewhic h has long dominated land use planning in industrialised nations, for it is one which goes to the very heart of the relationship between town and country. There are many factors which influence thisrelationship , butincreasingl y its management by thepubli c planning process which has become the main determinant of the future of rural land use. Most westernEuropea n countries haveapproache d theproble m byimplementin gpolicie s atth e national levelwhic hgenerall y haveestablishe d theprincipl eo fprotectin g thecountrysid e from urban development in a systematic way. By contrast, North American land use planning remains a mainly local affair in which land use change is regulated mostly through municipal zoning controls, rather than through the implementation of central government policies. This system of planning has important implications for the future of rural land use on a continent which continues to experience widespread metropolitanisation. Several writers have commented, largely theoretically, on the limitations of the system for rural land use planning especially in areaso fintens eurba n development pressure (Bunce, 1984;Bryant , 1989; Daniels et al., 1989).However , there has been relatively little detailed discussion or empirical analysis of this issue. Indeed the study of rural land use change in metropolitan regions in North America has tended to consider the role of municipal planning tob eo f secondary significance totha to f thelan dmarket .Whil ethi sma y reflect the poorly developed state of land use planning in some areas, it fails to recognize its growing role in many urban fringes. 113 In this paper, therefore, I shall attempt to show why, in our analysis of rural land use change in North American metropolitan areas, we should pay more attention to the role of the localplannin g system and to theproblem s that it poses for effective rural resource management. The empirical basis for my discussion is taken from the Toronto region, in part because of my on-going research in this area, but also because, notwithstanding the peculiarities of theOntari oplannin g system,i ti s ametropolita nregio n which typifies the planningproblem s generated byrapi d growth.Althoug h I shallrefe r toth ebroa dregiona l picture, my conclusions are based mainly on the example of a single municipality; the Towno fMarkham ,whic hlie si nth einne rfring e onMetropolita n Toronto's north-eastern boundary. Land Use Planning in Ontario Land useplannin g in Canada is governed by provincial rather than federal legislation. In Ontario,i toperate s under thePlannin gAc t which essentially delegates toloca l authorities the power toregulat e land usechang e under various forms ofProvincia l supervision (see Gomme, 1984). Underthi slegislativ eumbrella ,plannin gproceed sprincipall y through the conventional North American practice of land-use designation, zoning, building and housing by-laws, and subdivision and severance control. The Planning Act also incorporates an appeal tribunal in the form of the Ontario Municipal Board to which contentious plans and amendment applications may be referred by the Minister, government agencies, municipal councils and private citizens. In additiont osupervisin g theadministratio n of thePlannin g Act,th eProvinc e alsomake s policy statements which are designed to provide municipalities, the Ministry and the O.M.B. with guidelines for the incorporation of "matters of provincial interest" into the planning process. As far as rural land is concerned there are essentially three provincial policies which affect municipal land use planning: 1. Urban Development in Rural Areas (U.D.I.R.A.), intended to promote orderly development and prevent scattered residential land use in rural areas. 2. The Rural Estate Guidelines, to encourage municipalities to adopt policies to control the development of scattered housing estates in rural areas, in order to minimise their impacto n agriculture,rura l landscape, thenatura lenvironmen t andmunicipa l services (Ontario, Ministry of Housing, 1973). 3. The Foodland Guidelines, "toassis t at all levels inplannin g for agriculture within the land use planning process in Ontario." (Ontario, Ministry of Agriculture and Food, 1978). There are other policies and pieces of legislation dealing with specific sectors and issues which influence rural land use planning, but it is the three policies listed above which have had the most bearing on the treatment of rural land in municipal land use planning. However, only theFoodlan d Guidelines deal explicitly and exclusively with the question of rural land use and these have therefore become the principal policy instrument for guiding the local planning process in its treatment of rural land. The history anddeficiencie s of the Foodland Guidelines are well covered elsewhere (e.g. Troughton,1981;Davidson , 1982;Furuset h &Pierce,1982) .Fo rth epurpose s ofthi spape r it is enough to stress that, while they require municipalities to identify high capability agricultural land and to incorporate into their official plans policies and procedures for steeringdevelopmen t away from this land,th eGuideline s are subordinate toth ePlannin g 114 Act Their implementation, like that of other provincial policy statements affecting land use planning, is the responsibility of the local municipality with provincial involvement taking the form of reviews by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of official plans, amendments and severance and sub-division applications, and ministry involvement in O.M.B. appeals. Given the historical reluctance of the provincial government to impose planning policy on municipalities there is therefore considerable potential for inter- municipal variation in the incorporation of the Guidelines into local planning policy (Davidson,1982). This potential is increased by a key provision which permits municipalities (and,b y the same token, the O.M.B. and the Minister) to deviate from the guidelines as long as they can show justification for doing so. This provision has been widely criticised as the weak link in the province's agricultural land policy, especially in areas of intense urban development pressure where the need to develop farmland can be easilyjustifie d within the terms of theGuideline s themselves (Troughton, 1981; Krueger, 1984). Rural land use planning in Ontario depends therefore on a confusing mixture of sectoral policies, the implementation of which occurs mainly within the municipal planning framework. There is no integrated policy for the country side as a whole, nor even for rural land resources in particular. The Foodland Guidelines appear to have become the principal policy instrument by which rural land needs can be addressed at the local planning level. It is the effectiveness of this approach which has therefore become one of the central rural land useplannin g issues in Ontario, as indeed farmland preservation policy is in much of the rest of North America. As I have already indicated, the limitations of Ontario's policy have been widely recognized. However, much of the criticism has been based on intuitive rather than empirical arguments. Few studies of the actual adoption and implementation of the Guidelines have been carried out. One exception is Davidson's study which compared the implementation of agricultural land use policies in over two hundred rural planning areas in south-western Ontario (Davidson,1982). Davidson concluded that, while most municipalities with official plans had incorporated the requirements of the Guidelines into them, there was considerable inconsistency in the manner and strength of their incorporation both within and between official plans. There also appeared to be significant discrepancies between stated policy goals and implementation procedures. Although Davidson generated valuableempirica levidenc eo n agricultural landus epolic y in local planning, his study was based on the analysis of policies and procedures laid down in official plans rather than on that of the implementation process, where the real test of policy lies.Furthermor e his research was carried out during the early years of the Foodland Guidelines and pre-dated the 1982 revision of the Planning Act. And finally, he was not concerned specifically with the problem as it applied to large metropolitan regions.T osom eexten t these limitations wereremedie d byKarumanchery' s recent study of the implementation of the Guidelines in fringe municipalities in the Toronto region (Karumanchery,1987). Like Davidson he found that, although all plans studied did incorporate someelement s of theGuidelines ,ther ewa sconsiderabl e variation bothi nth e strength of agricultural land use policy statements in plans and in the application of the procedures outlined by the Guidelines for implementing these policies. Of particular significance wasth etendenc y for municipalcouncil s tob ewillin gt oapprov e applications in contravention of their own policies for agricultural land and to propose their own amendments in favour of urban development. Furthermore he showed that the Ontario 115 Municipal Board is just as likely to approve applications for development on prime farmland as to reject them. These conclusions lend weight to the general critique of the use of conventional municipal planning to implement farmland preservation in the expanding metropolitan regions of Ontario. Yet in this and other discussions of the issue, three questions seem to have been largely ignored. Firstly, what are the specific constraints imposed by a municipal planning system on the preservation of rural land in urban fringes? Secondly, what is the role of rural land in the planning of these areas? Thirdly, what are the implications of thisrol efo rth erelationshi p between rural andurba n landus eand ,indeed , for a rural-urban model of planning in general? These questions will be discussed using the example of Markham. The Town of Markham Markham, one of the six local municipalities in theYor k Region, is situated immediately to the North of the Metropolitan Toronto boundary (Figure 1). Figure 1.Metropolita n Toronto Iti son eo f thefastes t growingmunicipalitie si n anurba nfring e wherepopulatio n growth rates have outstripped those of Metropolitan Toronto itself for the past twenty years. Sinceit s boundary reorganisation with theestablishmen t ofregiona l government in 1972, Markham's population has grown from alittl e under 43,000 to approximately 130,000i n 116 1989, an increase of just over 200 percent. Urban development (mainly residential, but with some recent influx ofindustria l and office building) has been concentrated in the southern half ofth e municipality. Outside this built-up area (see Figure 2), agriculture remains the predominant land-use. Much of this agricultural land, however, is owned by real estate interests and is farmed mainly on ashort-ter m rental basis (Bunce, 1984). LAND USE DESIGNATIONS IN MARKHAM (Generalised 1iom Official Plan of Town of Markham, Schedule A, 1987) AGRICULTURAL OPEN SPACE f^ïs^ PARKWAY BELT OUTSTANDING OFFICIAL PLAN AMENDMENT APPLICATIONS IN m AGRICULTURAL AREAS \rrr~n ^ Figure 2. Land use designations in Markham Theapparentl y clear-cutboundar y between developed andundevelope d land inMarkha m is directly related to the existence ofa well-developed municipal planning structure. Current planning policy effectively began with the 1978 Official Plan. Althoughth e Plan's overall objective was themanagemen t of future growth, it diddesignat e a significant proportion of the municipality for agricultural and related rural uses. In the period since, as theFoodlan d Guidelines have become more established, Markham appears to have progressively reinforced its stated commitment to the maintenance of a clear urban-rural boundary andth eprotectio n of prime agricultural land. This was initiatedb y aplannin g department discussionpape r onth eurban-rura l interface, thebasi c thrust ofwhic h appears to have become, through decisions on amendment applications and the recent official plan review, the guiding policy inMarkham' s current planning strategy. The study was carried out in 1980 "toconside r the nature andcharacteristic s of an appropriate urban-rural interface" alonga centra l section of 16th.Avenu e whichmark s the northern boundary of the current urban envelope (Fig. 2). Inrecommendin gth e retention of this boundary thestud y argued that, "the location of 16th. Avenue is consistent with both urban growth needs and the Town's objective ofprotectin g rural areasfro m urbanization andencouragin g the continuation offarmin g the associated rural activities." (Town of Markham, 1980,p . 3). Theprincipl e of restricting development to the urban side of the interface has since been 117 reaffirmed inth eTown' s rural areapolicie s in the 1987revisio n of theOfficia l Plan.Thi s incorporates a significantly stronger position on agricultural land than the 1978 Plan, including a commitment to "assist in providing for a healthy and productive agricultural community" by preserving "a large, continuous area of prime land, to be available for agriculture over the long term, and within which farming activity can takeplac e with the minimum of disruption from competing or incompatible land uses." (Town of Markham, 1987a, p. 123). This policy is to be implemented through the differentiation of the rural area into agricultural zones (Al to A3 on thefigure 2) .Thes e distinguish between prime agricultural lands on which only land uses related to agriculture will be permitted (Al and A3, the latter designation created to demarcate provincially-owned land east of the Ninth Concession and south of 16th. Avenue, the future of which lies primarily with the provincial government), and lands of somewhat lower quality (A2) where low intensity outdoor recreational uses will be allowed. On the face of it, then, Markham appears to have adopted fairly strong policies for both urban containment and farmland preservation. Yet if we examine these policies in the context of the municipal planning process then a somewhat different picture emerges.I n the first place, the real test of an Official Plan lies not in the statement but in the implementation of policy. For the most part, Markham appears to have conformed to its own stated goals as far as the 1978 Plan is concerned, and, in comparison with other fringe municipalities has a relatively good record on the enforcement of its policies to preserve the integrity of therura l area (Karumanchery, 1987).However , since 1978ther e have been anumbe ro f additions toth eare ao f urban designation,includin gfou r so-called "expansion" areas in the 1987 revision of the Plan which reflect the incremental nature of municipal planning. Some of these have been initiated by the municipality and others byprivat elandowners .Furthermor ebecaus eo fth epredominanc eo fdevelopmen tinterest s in the ownership of rural land, the municipality is under constant pressure from the applications of private individuals and groups for amendments to the official plan and exceptions to rural area policies. Even if, as has often been the case, the Planning Department opposes the approval of these applications, Markham' s council,lik e thoseo f allothe r municipalities,face s social, political and financial pressures that often predisposes it to look favourably on applications for theextensio n of therevisio n of theurba n boundary (Bureau of Municipal Research, 1977).Indeed ,jus t ayea r agoth eToront o newspapers were full of accusations of cosy relationships between developers and municipal politicians. Although few recent applications have, in fact, been approved by Markham's Council, it has shown an occasional willingness to overturn therecommendation s of its Planning Department and approve applications which haveth eeffec t ofpuncturin g thecurren turba n boundary.On e such case is that of Official Plan Amendment 34, through which Council approved a developer's application for the rezoning of rural land on the urban boundary to permit a fully-serviced rural residential estate (Polajnar, 1987).Althoug h thefinal outcom e of this protracted case awaits a decision by the O.M.B., the arguments mounted in its support reveal the fragility of rural land use designations in areas of development pressure. In addition to OPA 34 there have been several applications for the redesignation of Agriculture 1lan d to residential uses in a large block north of the rural-urban interface (Figure 2). These have been denied by Council mainly on the grounds of the failure to show the need todevelo p prime agricultural landa t this time (Town of Markham, 1987). 118 However, new applications for re-zoning of these lands have since been submitted. The pressure to push development beyond the current urban boundary therefore continues. This is anindicatio n of thedifficult y that Markham, and,fo r thatmatte r any municipality in Ontario, experiences in implementing its own policies. Developers have had considerable success in "outgunning" both municipalities and the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food in the use of expert opinion and legal counsel to manipulate the Planning Act and the Foodland Guidelines in favour of their applications. Given the O.M.B.'s tendency to compromise in order to achieve its mandate of ensuring "good planning," one can only assume that the continued agricultural designation of these particular parcels remains in doubt. Beyond these problems of implementation, however, we should also recognise that Markham's basic planning mandate under the Ontario Planning Act is to manage development; in other words toestablis h policies andprocedure s for achieving an orderly process of land use change. This is the conventional role of local land use planning throughout North America and indeed much of the western world. Markham's urban boundaries and agricultural land designations can be seen therefore as mechanisms for planning orderly growth. In the words of the recent Official Plan Review, "There is no way to curtail growth, and Markham cannot be closed to further development. The most defensible position is to accept a reasonable and desirable share of the total growth and plan sufficienüy far ahead so that expansion can be accommodated in a cost-efficient mannerwit h minimal negative impact on the existingTown " (Town of Markham, 1987b, p. ID- So, the urban boundaries are set for the length of the Plan (fifteen years in the case of Markham's current plan) and then adjusted at the end of that period or earlier should the municipality so decide. Agricultural land is "preserved" only as long as the official plan remains unchanged, which, even if the plan runs it full term unamended, is a relatively brief period. It can be argued that, under this structure, the preservation of agricultural land is an excellent tool for planning the staging of urban development. In the first place it maximises development flexibility by preserving land in an undeveloped state. This objective was implied in Markham's Urban-Rural Interface Study, which argued that "continued agricultural andrura l open spacei s theoveral l optimal usei n lot 16(th erura l side of the interface), until such time as ...development can no longer be accommodated in other more suitable areas of the Town." Any development in the rural area, it was argued, would jeopardize the long-term flexibility for urban extension, a view which is supported byth ePlannin gDirector' srecen t statemento nagricultura l landpolic yi nwhic h he warned of the dangers of allowing development on rural lands "in the border areas ...therebycomplicatin g urbanexpansio nwhe ni tbecome snecessary. " (Towno f Markham, 1986, p. 4). The other advantage of incorporating a protected agricultural area into the municipal plan, particularly when it is required by provincial policy, is that it provides an easily defended rationale for the fixing of urban boundaries. This is not to say that Markham is not genuinely committed to its stated goal of protecting itsprim e farmland from development. However, it should beremembere d that, in stating this goal,i t isonl y conforming toth eFoodlan d Guidelines, which it isrequire d to do in order to obtain ministerial approval of the Official Plan. Moreover its commitment is, at the most, only as good as the length of the planning period (this too conforms toth eGuidelines) .Finally , incommo n with allmunicipalities , theextensio n of 119 urban development in Markham is ultimately dependent on theexpansio n of sewage and mains water capacity by the Province. This, in fact, is the main constraint on future development, and one is forced to conclude that the extension of these services beyond their current capacity could quickly lead to a municipally-initiated amendment to the Official Plan. Implications for Rural Land Although this has been a rather limited review of the treatment of rural land by the planning process in just one municipality, it does suggest some answers to the three questions which thispape r addresses; namely what areth econstraint s imposed by aloca l planning system on rural land preservation in the urban fringe, what is the role of rural land in the planning of fringe areas and what are the implications of this role for rural- urban land-use relations? The Constraintsof Local Planning The fundamental weakness of relying on conventional local land use planning for the preservation of rural land in the Toronto region is that it fails to recognise the inherent conflict between preservational objectives andth emunicipa lplannin gmandate .A sI hav e said, municipal land use planning in Ontario is principally concerned with the management of land use change; with, that is, the establishment of flexible policies and procedures designed to regulate the development process in order to minimise land use conflict, ensureth eprovisio n of adequate services andprotec t public safety. Iti s asyste m which is controlled largely by local political structures and which requires the balancing of private and public interests. Rural land use planning, as we have seen in the case of Markham, can be pursued only in the context of this broad mandate. In areas of great development pressure like the Torontoregio n this can seriously constrain the ability of municipalities to give long-term primacy to rural land even if they wished to do so. It also limits the effectiveness of provincial policies,whic h areadministere d throughth eloca lplannin gprocess ,rathe rtha n through direct provincial controls. The Foodland Guidelines, for example, have been designed topermi t adaptation tochangin gloca l development needs atal llevel s including decisions by the Ontario Municipal Board. Finally, conventional planningprocedure s are inadequate tools for preserving agricultural lands which are owned mainly by development interests.I nth efirst place ,zonin glan dagricultura l can actually increase it's speculative potential by making itcheape rtha n surrounding land.And ,mor e importantly, landowners can usually operateo nth e assumption thateconomi c andpolitica lexigencies , rather than theideolog y of farmland preservation, willdetermin e theultimat e useo f land. In the Toronto urban fringe, this situation is exacerbated by the continued lack of an overall land use policy framework for the greater metropolitan region as a whole. Local government reform carried out in the early seventies has failed to change the fragmented municipal structure around Toronto and failed to "provide an effective means for the (provincial) government to participate in the nuts and bolts of planning."(Wronski and Turnbull, 1984, p.131). Other initiatives such as The Toronto-Centred Region Concept, the Central Ontario Lakeshore Urban Complex Plan and the Parkway Belt Plan have all fallen foul of a provincial unwillingness to impose a regional land use development 120 policy on individual municipalities. In Bourne's words, "we now have an urbanized region of over 3 million that, in broad outline at least, no one is explicitly planning (Bourne,1984) . Although there has been some recent political movement through the informal Greater Toronto Committee (which is made up of leaders of all the fringe municipalities) towards a revival of regional policy initiatives this is more likely to be concerned with specific issues, such as waste disposal and transportation, than with land use planning strategy as a whole. TheRole of RuralLand The pre-eminence of local-level planning in the Toronto region appears not only to limit the potential for rural land preservation, but also raises questions about the precise role of rural land in the planning and development process. Policies for rural land can be implementedonl ywithi nth ebroade rcontex to fth emunicipa lmandat et oregulat e overall land use change. In an expanding metropolitan region like Toronto this is effectively an urban planning mandate. The analysis of Markham suggests that the designation of agricultural landi s anexcellen t toolfo r the staging of urban development, andon e which can be justified within the framework of the Foodland Guidelines. This appears to confirm the fairly widely-held academic opinion that in municipal planning in Ontario, agricultural land, especially at the urban boundary, is often treated as a holdjng category for future development, the timing of which will be determined by the changing level of developmentpressur e andth eexpansio n of sewagecapacit y andothe rprovincia l services. This approach is facilitated by a provincial policy which defines rural land primarily in terms of spatial units based on agricultural capability, and then relies for its protection upon the land use allocation process at the municipal level. This is a narrow definition of rural land which encourages its use as developable open space in municipal land use planning, especially where, as in the Toronto fringe, municipalities are increasingly governed by urban planning requirements. Rural-urban land use relations Themanne ri n which rural land useha s been incorporated into theloca l planning process in the Toronto metropolitan region has had a significant impact on the spatial form of rural-urban relationships. As the example of Markham shows, it has had the effect of drawing clear boundaries between urban and rural areas. Of course, this is the logical outcome of an allocative approach to land use planning. Yet it is also the consequence of a planning system which has permitted, indeed encouraged, municipalities to define rural-urban boundaries in terms of a clear dichotomy between agricultural and non- agricultural uses.Thi s has resulted in simplistic and artificial boundaries, the adjustment of which have become the principal policy issue in the urban fringe. Theoretically, decisions over the development of rural land take place therefore in terms of the competing requirements of farmland preservation and urban development. However, in practice, this conflict has been neutralised by the useo f agricultural land designations for managing the development process. Rural land is therefore fully incorporated into the metropolitan development framework while at the same time appearing bothi n policy statements and actual use to beprotecte d by clear urban boundaries. This imposes serious limitations on the future not only of agricultural but of rural land use in general in the Toronto metropolitan region. Its main 121 weakness is thati t does not allow for theintegrate d planning of urban andrura l landuse s on a sustained basis within a broad regional framework. Yet, although regional concepts of this nature have been proposed for the greater Toronto area, none have been adopted. Instead we have a fragmented system of municipal planning which is not mandated to deal with the broader issues of rural resource management, and which is not guided by any provincial policies which come close to providing a framework for integrating a comprehensive policy for the countryside in the planning of metropolitan regions. Conclusions The arguments in this paper are based on the analysis of a single municipality within the context of the specific planning system of Ontario. However, the fact that land use planning tends to be a local responsibility across most of North America, makes it reasonable to assume that many of the same limitations to rural land use planning that apply in Markham apply to other expanding metropolitan regions. Clearly this will vary according toth edegre e ofinfluenc e of central governmentpolicie s on theloca lplannin g process. Yet as the example of Markham suggests, where local government is charged with theresponsibilit y forimplementin g thosepolicies ,rura llan d mayno treceiv e special treatment. The central problem of the reliance on local planning appears to lie in the inherent weakness of its predominantly managerial, allocative approach to land use planning. This may be quite adequate where there are no urbanisation pressures, but in expanding metropolitan regions it has more to do with redefining the role of rural land to reflect the edicts of a newly-emerging decentralised urban form than with the conservation of rural resources. Acknowledgements I wish to express my gratitude to Biju Karamanchery and Margaret Buchinger of the Town of Markham Planning Department for their assistance in guiding me through the intricacies ofMarkham' splannin g system.However , theinterpretatio n andcritiqu eo f this system in this paper are entirely the responsibility of the author. 122. CONVERSION OF FARMSTEADS: HIDDEN URBANISATION OR A CHANGING RURAL SYSTEM? Jacob H.P. van der Vaart Fryske Akademy, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands Abstract Due tostructural changes inagriculture sincethe fifties, many farmsteads havelost their originalfunction. Some have been torndown, the majority still exists.Keeping more or less the original exterior, the buildings are re-usedfor housing and, increasingly,for small businesses of variouskinds. The lattermeans a diversificationof rural landuse with activities, which in a traditionalsense are not necessarilyrelated to rural areas. Policy implicationsof thisprocess of conversion willbe demonstrated.The question is whether thisprocess of conversion has to do with a gradualurbanisation process that spreadsfrom urbancentres, even in peripheral rural areas, or mightbe aphenomenon of the changing rural system itself. Answering this question is importantfor policy optionsfor rural areas. ' Keywords: hidden urbanisation, farmhouses, conversion, Friesland. Introduction Due to structural changes in agriculture since the fifties, many farmsteads have lost their original economic function. Part of these agricultural buildings have been torn down, but considerable numbers still do exist and contribute through their appearance to the agricultural character of the rural landscape. Keeping more or less the original exterior, the buildings are re-used for housing and for small businesses of various kinds. Farm buildings can bepu t and in fact have been put to many kinds of uses. Books which show an interesting array of new uses for former farmsteads have been published in Germany (Grube,1978) and Great Britain (Darley,1988). New functions for buildings are not without problems. The conversion not only has its effects on the building itself - what may beconsidere d aproble m from an architectural or aesthetical point of view -bu t also causes economic and social effects in rural areas, especially when the number of cases increases. One aspect of the changing countryside that has got little attention in rural studies is the conversion of buildings.Literatur e on this subject from ageographica l perspective is scarce. Functional change and conversion seems to be predominantly a subject of architects, not of geographers or other social scientists who are interested in rural areas. Rural studies that touch on the subject are usually restricted to changing land use in the rural-urban fringe (e.g. Bryant et al.1982 , Van den Berg 1989). Because of the social, economic and spatial dimension of the functional change of buildings, this phenomenon and its development is relevant for rural geography. Lewan's study of hidden suburbanisation in Sweden may be considered one of the first attempts to a systematic description of the phenomenon (Lewan, 1969).Durin g the years 1975-1977 a couple of 123 studieso n hidden suburbanisation inrura l houses andfarmstead s in theNetherland s were conducted by the Geographical Institute of the University of Utrecht (Veldman, 1978). These studiesfocuse d onth e socio-economic urbanisation throughhousehold s from urban centres. In this paper Iwil l discuss the conversion of one type of building thati s most specific for and prominent in rural areas: the farmstead. Theproces s of conversion of farmsteads for non-agricultural use is illustrated with examples from the province Friesland, a peripheral rural region in The Netherlands. I expect that a study of the conversion of farmsteads can provide insight in the dynamics in rural areas. By studying the phenomenon in aperiphera l ruralregion , whereth eeffect s of suburbanisation willb eles s than in the urban-rural fringe, we might be able to detect any other factors which are of importance. Conversion and planning policy New functions for existing structures, which have been built in the past for other purposes, are not without problems. Theus eo f aforme r farmstead forpur eresidentia l purposes isgenerall y considered not the biggest problem. A farmstead has always been acombinatio n of living and farming, of house and barn, so after the farming has stopped, the place can still be used as a house. Changes do occur when new people move into the house and if substantial numbers of incoming migrants are involved, this might lead to drastic changes in the social fabric of rural areas. The conversion of farmsteads into spaces for non-agricultural businesses leads to a diversification of rural land use with activities, which are not necessarily related to rural areas. Such a new function for the farmstead means that from an economic, social, cultural and/or architectural point of view elements of a non-agricultural, non-rural kind areintroduced . At least that is a general impression that lies atth e basis of rural planning policy in The Netherlands.Th e question comes upi f this is true and whether one general policy is right for every type of rural area. We can only answer that question if results of comparative research are available for different kinds of rural regions. The conversion of farmsteads is as well a problem of the present time as of the near future. Because the number of farms is still decreasing all over Europe and will be reduced further in the years to come, the question arises what will happen to all those farmsteads or which measures should betake n toavoi d negative and unwanted effects on rural areas. The research To fill a relatively blank spot in the field of rural research further exploration of the process of conversion of farmsteads inTh e Netherlands is planned. Research on this will be done during the next couple of years. The main research questions are: 1. What numbers are we talking about when speaking of converted farmsteads and what has been the development of thephenomeno n over the years: the quantification of the studied object. 2. Which new functions for farmsteads do exist, which factors are important in the process of conversion and what determines the new function of the farmstead. 3. What are the differences in the conversion process between rural areas near urban centres, in peri-urban regions or in extra-urban regions of the rural periphery. 124 4. What will be the social, economic and physical effects of conversion for rural areas. 5. What is the planning policy towards conversion of farmsteads in past, present and future. In this article those five questions will be considered in the light of some preliminary research findings in the dutch province of Friesland. After that some conclusions will be drawn as a contribution to the conference theme of changing rural systems. First of all a brief description of farmsteads and the region of study is necessary. Farmsteads in Friesland Farmsteads come in different shapes and sizes. Depending on age, regional culture and type of agriculture we notice avariatio n of these structures between countries and within a country.Th e typeo ffarmstea d inFrieslan d can becharacterize d asa on eroo f structure, which contains house and barn. These types date from before 1960. More recent farmsteads are of a different type and can be described as low roofed barns with bungalow type houses,n olonge r attached toeac h other.Figur e 1give s an impression of the main types of farmsteads. HlHlU Figure 1.Traditiona l types of farmsteads in Friesland. Friesland Friesland can be characterized as a predominantly rural province with its capital Leeuwarden with 80.000 inhabitants as its largest urban centre. On a national scale the province Friesland belongs to the peripheral zone, considering Randstad Holland as the centre.Withi n Friesland a distinction can be made in aperi-urba n region around the city of Leeuwarden and an extra-urban region in the rest of the province (Huigen & van der Velden, 1989, 20-21). Empirical research has been done in two municipalities in this extra-urban region, Skarsterlân and Littenseradiel. The location is shown in figure 2. Agriculturei n bothmunicipalitie s isalmos thundre dpe rcen tdair yfarming . Littenseradiel is situated in the centre of the dairy farming district. The settlement pattern can be characterized as compact nucleated villages with dispersed farms in between. Skarsterlân is situated in the Frisian lake district, between two small cities of about 30.000 inhabitants. This area is considered an attractive environment for living, recreation and water-related tourism. Most villages in Skarsterlân are of a linear type along roads, also with farms dispersed in the fields. 125 Figure 2. Location of study area Quantification The number of farmsteads which are no longer used for commercial farming can not be derived directly or indirectly from statistics in the Netherlands. Sources like the censuses of 1947, 1960 and 1971 and the yearly agricultural statistics do not use the same definition of farmstead and farm over the years.Thi s means that answers to the questions about development of the numbers over the years and the spatial distribution can not easily be derived from these sources. Numbers of demolished farmsteads are not registered either, so we can not make a simple sum to determine how many farmsteads with a non-agricultural use do exist in a region. Only through an inventory in the field the present numbers of farmsteads, converted to non-agricultural use,ca n be determined. In Skarsterlân I counted 248converte d farmsteads as compared to 505operationa l farms and inLittenseradie l 130an d 394,respectively . This means thato f all present farmsteads in these municipalities respectively 33%an d 25% are no longer used for farming. From this I estimate that for the rest of the province Friesland between 30 and 40 percent of all present farmsteads, that is between 4500 and 5000 farmsteads, are no longer used for farming. By its numbers the subject is sure worth attention in rural areas. Present use of converted farmsteads When describing the present use I noticed that we have to distinguish between main use and added use. Of the 248 converted farmsteads in Skarsterlân the main use is 76% permanent residence, 8% second home, 14 %a non-agricultura l business and 2%empty . In Littenseradiel I found 88% permanent residence and 12% non-agricultural business. The main use of the farmsteads for residential purposes is not surprising. A farmstead always has had this function, because it is a combination of living and working, of storage of farm products, shelter for cattle and equipment. When a farmer stops his business, he and his family usually stay there for a number of years. After that the farm may be sold. An interesting question is to whom and when? Although numbers from a full survey can not yet bepresented , afirs t estimate learns that after five years more than 126 half of those farmsteads are still inhabited by the former farmer, his wife, or one of his children. Businesses of allpossibl e kinds can befoun d inconverte d farms, varying from simple storage room to three-star restaurant, from retail shop to small high-tech industry. When a non-agricultural business is the main use of the building, residence is the added use. Like the farmer, the entrepreneur usually lives at the premises. In almost 100 % of all cases in my study the entrepreneur uses the former farmhouse as living quarters and the former barn for his business or trade. Two categories of businesses can be distinguished: 1.craft s and services for the local and regional market, 2. crafts and services for the extra-regional market. In the two municipalities studied the proportions are respectively for Skarsterlân 80%-20% and for Littenseradiel 90%-10%. This indicates that in these rural areas the businesses in farmsteads are very strongly related to the region itself. In my preliminary study I also noted where the entrepreneurs come from. About 70 to 80 % are local people or from the same region who have bought these farms and started a business or moved on purpose to a farmstead from a smaller premise. It is interesting that the 'local' entrepreneurs are mainly involved in businesses working for the local andregiona l market. Entrepreneurs who came from other regions are more into businesses which work for an extra-regional market. Examples of this are guest house, sailing school, marketing bureau and fancy restaurant. At 15 to 20% of the farmsteads which are mainly used for residence'I found an additional use: 2/3 of this is hobby farming, e.g. horses or sheep and on 1/3 some kind of extra income, e.g. storage (of caravans) or some form of small trade. Some of these latter ones are on the brink of full entrepreneurship. It is here that we touch upon the factors, which are important in the process of converting farmsteads for some kind of business. The fact that a farmstead offers plenty of room to develop those activities is very important. As far as I am informed on the cases from this preliminary study, it appears that a large number of the entrepreneurs has started the business in the farmstead on a small scale. The farmstead is a perfect incubator for starting entrepreneurs. In the combination of house and extra room in the barn a farmstead provides an excellent resource for a starter. Relevant factors A comparison of the main use of large and small farmsteads shows the following results: large farmsteads 70% residential use and 30% businesses, small farms 95% residential use and 5% businesses. It is obvious that larger farmsteads are attractive for some form of enterprise. Smaller farmsteads are perfect for conversion into a spacious house.Whe n larger farmsteads are used for living purposes only, they usually have a lot of unused space left over after conversion. The location of the farmstead, either in a village or as a dispersed settlement in the field, has no significant effect on its main use for either living or business. There is however a difference in the kind of business we find in a farmstead in the village or outside thevillage .Outsid eth evillag eI notice d moreofte n abusines srelate d to farming, e.g. farm equipment repair or dealers in cattle fodder. In the village we find conversions into stores, offices, a car repair shop or a building contractor. Exceptions to this rule do exist too. 127 Effects of conversion In this preliminary study only the consequences of conversion for the exterior of the farmstead and its possible effects on the rural landscape have been investigated. When a farmstead gets an other main function, it means most of the time alterations on interior and exterior. Although some 'improvements' lead to a complete metamorphosis of the farmstead, I found that about 65% of the functionally converted farmsteads still looks very 'agricultural'. In 25% of all cases the exterior can be classified as 'country house like'. This is usually the case for farmsteads located in avillage . Theremainin g 10%ha s been drastically changed because of its adjustment to a non-agricultural business. Planning policy Considering theplannin g policy towards conversion three levels should be distinguished, the national, the provincial and the municipal. At all three levels the main functions designated to rural areas are agriculture, recreation and nature. At the provincial level somegenera lstatement so nothe rfunction s arementioned ,bu tth epolic yi smainl ygeare d towards prohibiting suburbanisation and introduction of activities which have norelatio n with the three main functions. The province Friesland does provide some room for new activities through conversion inrura l regions.Th econditio n istha ti t should not harm the three main functions of rural areas (Streekplan Friesland 1989).Th e level that deals with matters of conversion in the most direct way is the municipality. In designation plans the present and future functions of land and buildings are regulated. This means that when farming stops the building needs a change of designation. Pure residential use is usually no problem. In the municipalities that I studied the use of a farmstead as a second home is almost completely impossible. The second homes in farmsteads which still exist in Skarsterlân date as such from many years ago, when policy was less strict. In case someonewant s to start abusines si n afarmstea d the situation becomes more complicated. In themunicipalitie s that I studied decisions aremad e on a case to case basis, with some general objectives in mind. The conditions are: no pollution and no hinderance to agriculture. The main problem for the local councils is what to do if the small enterprise is doing well and wants to expand. Are extensions of the farmstead or new buildings allowed and if so, to what extent? There is a danger of creating small industrial estates in a residential neighbourhood and in the open countryside. The policy is to try to move these expanding enterprises to industrial zones near small towns. Conclusion Theresult s of this limited preliminary study in two smallperiphera lrura l regions provide some interesting insights in the dynamics of rural regions. A general opinion is that the phenomenon of conversion of farmsteads is predominantly an example of hidden suburbanisation. The first results from this study reveal that conversion is not only the result of forces of urban origin, but alsooriginate s from initiatives of therura l population themselves. This conclusion is based on the fact that a substantial part of the inhabitants of converted farmsteads areloca lpeople , thatfarmstead s which used tob e second homes come into the hands of local people for permanent residence and that many of the entrepreneurs who converted the farmstead into a non-agricultural business are local people too. The fact that the majority of the enterprises work for the local and regional market supports the idea that part of the changes in peripheral rural regions comes from 128 the region itself. Theconversio n of useo f former farmsteads isimportan t for theloca l community. The houses remain part of the local housing market, the number of households does not decrease and the buildings are well kept and sometimes improved. So from a point of conservation of rural architecture a new use is important as well. In the past rural areas have seen an enormous loss of diversity through loss ofjob s in crafts and local services. The new enterprises which we find in converted farmsteads are not yet a complete compensation for what has been lost in the past, but it adds to the diversity of the rural economy and provides local employment. For this reason it is important to pay more attention to starter entrepreneurs in farmsteads. The incubator function of the farmstead seems to be very important. 129 QUASI-AGRICULTURAL LAND:HIDDE N URBANIZATION, HOBBY FARMING OR WHAT ELSE ? LeoM .va n den Berg TheWinan dStarin gCentr efo rintegrate dLand ,Soi lan dWate rResearch ,Wageningen ,Th e Netherlands Abstract In adensely populated country likethe Netherlands farmland isin short supply andgreat efforts are made to have all of it used by commercialfarmers. Detailed statistics are maintainedto show the losses and gains of farmland toand from otherlanduse categories. Froman analysis of these statistics it is learned that about 10% of what looks like farmland isnot used by registered farmers. Thisphenomenon is called "quasi-agricultural" land use. Thepaper examines thevarious ways in which quasi-agricultural landis used. Based on detailedstudies in20 ofthe approximately 700dutch municipalities the relative frequency of occurrence of each type is estimated and explained by variables like degree of urbanization,soil condition,landscape and relativestrength of the agricultural sector. About250 of theland users involved have been asked about the processes thatled tothe presentsituation. Keywords:land-use ,hobbyfarm ,agriculture ,statistics ,hidde nurbanization ,th eNetherlands . "Quasi-agricultural": yet another concept? Themanagemen to fagricultura llan di sno tth eprerogativ eo fcommercia lfarmers .T osom e this statement maysoun dtrivial ,t oother s highly questionableo reve nthreatening . Oneo f thereason s whyopinion s onthi smatte rdiffe r isth edefinitio n ofwh oi sa farme r andwh o isn't. Otherproblem s areraise d byth econcept so f 'management' and 'agricultural'. If we agree with Morgan and Munton (1971.P.17), that "agriculture is the purposeful tending of crops andlivestock" , much depends on thepurpos e of this activity.Eve n if the purposei st omak ea livin gou to f 'tendingo fcrop san dlivestock ' onecanno tb esur et ob e dealingwit h"farmers" .Als oparkwardens ,researc hassistan tan dother sma yb epai dt oloo k after certaincrop san danimals .Bu ti nmos tcase si twoul db eth ecommercia lfarme r (either full-time or part-time) whose purpose is to make a living out of the management of rural land. Butman yothe rpurpose s canb ethough tof . Forinstance ,i nth ecas eo f thepar k warden theultimat epurpos e is that thecharacte ro f thelandscap e andwildlif e ismaintained .Thi s purposei softe n shared by "hobby farmers" whoten dt ocrop so rlivestoc k merely because they like it. For them the sale of a harvest is fun and a way of limiting the cost of an otherwise veryexpensiv e hobby. Sometimes themanage r of anatur ereserv e isexpecte d to act asi f hei s a 19thcentur y farmer, because this would be the only way of preserving a unique ecosystem. Does this bring him in the same category as the modern, commercial farmer? Some say 'yes' and 130 others 'no'.I woul db eincline dt ous eth ewor d "farmer" ina ver ygenera lsens ean dmak e distinctions by adding adjectives like "commercial", "hobby", "conservationary", etc.Al l do manage agricultural land, but their aims are (sometimes very) different. From an agricultural production point of view (in terms of both the economic undertaking and the quantities produced) itusuall y isonl yth ecommercia l farmer whocounts .An di na sfa r as hobby farmers and managers of nature reserves are not registered as "farmers" their agricultural production is unlikely tob ecovere d byth eagricultura l statistics. "Management" is anequall y confusing concept in the opening statement of this paper. Ifsomebod yown sa piec eo fagricultura llan dan dask sa nearb yfarme r toloo kafte r it,wh o is "managing" the land: he or the farmer? If "looking after" involves tending crops and livestock aspar t of someone's ownenterpris ei ti sobviousl y thefarmer , whoi s managing thisland .Bu ti f hemerel yperform s afe w tasksfo r which hei spaye d (incas ho r inkind ) Iwoul d consider theowne r asth emanage r andth efarme r as acontractor . Theter m "agricultural land" bearsth e sameambivalenc e as "farmer", which could best beillustrate dwit h theexampl eo f "rough grazing".Shee po rcattl ecoul dmak e solittl eus e ofthi sland ,tha tth eagricultura l function ofi tma ybecom enegligible .Bu ta twha tleve lo f use-intensity would one stop considering such grazing as agricultural and start calling it "nature"jus t like bilberries in the woods? Or is it the purpose of grazing rather than its intensity that makes the land 'agricultural'? These areth e kinds of dilemmas that make it necessary,a tleas ti nth econtex to frura llan dus ei nth eNetherlands ,t ocoi nth eter m"quasi - agricultural land" (QUALA) for those lots that look agricultural but are not used by commercial farmers. Thesignificanc e of "quasi-agricultural" landus e The continuous intensification of commercial agricultural production not only results in surpluses of food, manure and the like, but also may lead to increasing industrialization, uniformity ormonoton yo fth erura llandscape .Referrin gt oth erura larea ssurroundin gPari s Bryant (1984) points out that farm landscape conservation is not the same as agricultural development:h ecall sthi sth eamenity-industr y dilemmai nth emanagemen to fagricultura l land. One often suggested solution for this problem is to take land out of commercial agricultural production. But to the question as to what the alternative use should be the answersremai nremarkabl yvague .Th eai mo fthi spape ri st oinvestigat eth evalidit yo fon e possible answer. This is, that it is a relatively easy and (as far as public expenditure is concerned) cheap step to turn "agricultural" land into "quasi-agricultural" land. This involves theconversio n of (partsof )commercia lfarm s intonon-commercia l farmland. To a certain extent this is already the case when management agreements are made between commercialfarmer s andconservatio nauthorities .A sa measur et ode-intensif y landus ethi s does contribute to areductio n of agricultural surpluses, though at considerable cost toth e taxpayer. Therefore, for the affected fields to be called "quasi-agricultural" we have something else in mind than management agreements: the land should no longer be an integralpar t of acommercia l farmer's holding. In the Netherlands, where farming is known to be of a very intensive nature, approximately 10% of presumably agricultural land is not managed by commercial (registered) farmers. Comparable figures for othercountrie s arehar dt ofind, partl y because ofth e definition problems outlined in the first paragraph. In a study of London's Green Belt (Munton, 131 1983,p.128 )som e23 %o fth efarmer scoul db eterme da s"hobb yfarmers" .Wit ha naverag e farm sizeo f 11.8h a they occupied only 4%o f the agricultural land. Buti s hereferrin g to the sameland-us e category asth e 10%i n theNetherlands ? Thedutc h figure isbase d ona comparison between two sets of statistical data, both provided by the Central Bureau of Statistics.On ei sth eoveral lLan dUs eStatistics ,publishe dever y2 t o3 years ,an dth eothe r theAgricultura l Statistics,collecte d andpublishe d annually. Table 1 showsho wfro m thesestatistic sth eamoun to fquasi-agricultura l landi scomputed . Table 1. Roughestimate s of quasi-agricultural land (QUALA) inth eNetherland s(sq.km ) Year: 1963 1975 1985 * (A:)totalare ao f agricultural land according toth eLand-Us e Statistics(sq.km) : 25,858 25,160 23,974 * (B:)totalare ao f all registered farms according toth e Agricultural Statistics (sq.km): 25,742 22,962 22,027 * (A-B:)rough approximationo f total areao f quasi-agricultural land(sq.km): 116 2,198 1,947 * percentageo f quasi-agricultural landou to f totalare ao f agricultural land (%): 0,4% 8,7% 8,1% Iti sno twithou treason ,tha tth efigure s forquasi-agricultura llan di ntabl e1 arecalle droug h estimates. The Land-use Statistics record what the land looks like and are based on windscreen surveys and aerialphotographs . Smallpocket s (usually of less than 1 ha) of a particular land use are counted as if they were the same as their surroundings and misinterpretations are easily made. This results in most rural non-farm dwellings to be counteda sagricultura lland ,bu tals oi nth einclusio no fsom esmaller ,genuinel yagricultura l lotsi na categor y bywhic hthe yhappe nt ob esurrounded .Likewise ,th etota l areao f farms according to the Agricultural Statistics includes (negligible) pockets of non-agricultural land, that belong to these farms. Just before 1975 the number of holdings that were consideredto osmal lt ob eregistere da s"farms "wa sincreased ,whic hexplaine dmuc ho fth e difference between the 1963an d 1975figures . "A-B"i ntabl e 1 is the balanceo f opposite phenomena, which implies that QUALA proper (agricultural land and buildings used by non-registered, small-scale, non-commercial farmers) is somewhat more widespread (probably around 10%)tha n thetabl e seemst o suggest. Assuming,fo rth etim ebeing ,tha tth eabov eapproximatio no fQUAL Ai sreasonable ,w e may conclude thatlan dcoul dver ywel lmaintai nit sagricultura l appearancewithou t being managedb ycommercia lfarmers .Thi sconclusio nraise sa numbe ro finterestin gquestions : - isa shar eo fu pt o-say-10 %th emaximu mfeasibl e for acountr ylik eth eNetherlands ?- is it possible to identify regions within the country where this share would be much higher andreason s why this is the case? -would some of the land (though recorded as agricultural) infac t not at allb elooke d after? - or are wei n fact looking atlan d that is not used byregistere d farmers in aforma l way only,whil ei npractic ei tis ? Theavailabl eliteratur eo nhobb yfarmin g and short-termrentin go f agricultural landgive s littleinformatio n ast oth eamoun to fcultivate dlan dinvolve dan dth elink swit hcommercia l 132 (registered)farming .I nhi sstud yo fLondon' sGree nBel tMunto n(1983 )foun d that,o nth e average,hobb yfarming , short-term renting andhorse-keepin g wereassociate d with lower levels of land maintenance: more weeds and scrub. Exceptions are common and comparisons ambiguous, because much depends on the expectations and expertise of the hobby farmer and other owners or users of the land. The concern of this study was more with the under-utilization of agricultural land by hobby farmers and the like, than with methodso f achieving de-intensification. More positive on hobby farming, as far as the maintenance of rural 'amenity' is concerned, are some of the reports from North America. In an article on "landscape and landowner in rural America" Healy (1980,p.l00) writes that as with commercial farming "thesmal lrura lresidentia l parcel has also been bothpraise d andcriticised . Fields that are allowedt orever t tobrus h areinefficien t from the standpointo fcommodit y production but have, over the years, been welcome additions to wildlife habitats. Small, part-time agriculturaloperation sma yno tb ever yproductiv ei na neconomi c sense,bu tthe yincreas e landscape diversity and allow people to enjoy rural living without having to become subsistence farmers. Urban small landholders, even when just weekend visitors, have probablyals oha da beneficia leffec t onsom erura ltowns ,bringin gi nne wpurchasin gpowe r to supportrura l business and newattitude s aboutenvironmenta l quality". Similar criticism of post-war agricultural policy for its effect on rural depopulation is heardi nEngland .Accordin g toShucksmit h (1987)a polic y morelenien t towards housing and non-agricultural enterprise in rural areas would correct the situation, bufat least four possible dangers needt ob econsidere dfirst : theconversio n of agricultural landint ohous e sites tends to be irreversible; new housing probably has a negative impact on wildlife, landscape andrecreationa l externalities; the new residential developments are very likely tointensif y thesocia lexclusivit y ("gentrification")o fth ecountrysid ean dma yb ea burde n on future generations. The literature on non-farm residents of the countryside is far more concerned with the dwellings themselves than with the land surrounding them. Discussing "hidden urbanization" in Sweden, Lewan (1969) mentions that changes of ownership of land and buildings often do not appear in the landscape, but can nevertheless be mapped. He then focuses onth echangin gresident so ffar m buildingsan dth eincreas eo fnon-far m buildings invillage swithi ncommutin gdistanc et ocentre so femployment .Likewise ,Frenc hreading s on "rurbanisation" areconcerne dprimaril y withth econversio n ofpre-existin g (rural-type) buildings and the creation of newbuildin g lots (mainly of nomor e than 0.1 ha),whic h do notinclud e agricultural land (Bauer,1977;Berge r etal,1980) . The outcome of this short discussion of the literature is, that little is known about the sizes and spatial distribution of quasi-agricultural lots, but that they have interesting implications for landscape, land use and the formulation of spatial policies. In a research project (Van den Berg & Jacobs, 1989), supported by the State Agency for Physical Planning,w ehav erecentl y triedt ofill thi sgap .Som eo f thefindings ar e outlined below. Theidentificatio n of "quasi-agricultural" lotsi nth e Netherlands To find the tracks of land that are considered "agricultural" in the Land-use Statistics without beinguse db yregistere dfarmer s accordingt oth eAgricultura l Statisticsprove d to bea laboriou s excercise.Wherea s theLand-us e Statistics arebase do ndetaile d (1:10,000) land-use maps, those of the Agricultural Statistics are based on forms submitted by the farmers in May every year. In other words, normally no maps are available which show 133 where the registered farmers have their land. However, for the Province of Gelderland (which covers almost 15% of the agricultural land of the country) as well as for all areas earmarked for Land Development projects (between 30 and 40 thousand ha per year) additional, more spatial inventories could be consulted. The maps of the most detailed of theseinventorie s(th eLan dDivisio nSurvey ,cf .Va nKlee f& Linthorst ,1986 )ar eals odraw n ata scaleo f 1:10,000. Theabov etw omap swer ecompare dfo r2 0ou to fth e70 0dutc hmunicipalities ,whereb y 1983 was the year of reference (in practice that for the Land Division Surveys varied between 1979 and 1985). Altogether, over 3000 "quasi-agricultural" lots were identified through this method of map-comparison. Allo f these werevisite d inorde r torecor d thetyp eo f land use,whethe r orno t theycontaine d abuildin g andth eorigina l function andpresen t use and sizeo f such buildings. Thissurve yi n2 0municipalitie sresulte da ta simila roveral lshar eo fQ UAL A(8.8% )a s theroug hestimate sfo rth ecountr ya sa whole .Th eaverag edensit yo fQUALA-lot swa sjus t over 7pe r sq.km.Thi s implies an average sizeo fjus t over 1 ha.Figur e 1shows ,tha t this average hides aver y skewedfrequenc y distribution of thelot s concerned.Whil e overhal f of them areles stha n 1 ha,altogethe r7 5lot swer elarge rtha n 5ha . 1250 (0 O 750 0 500 £ C 250 Figure 1. Frequency distribution of the sizes of 3438 "quasi-agricultural" lots in 20 municipalities Asfa ra sth espatia ldistributio n ofQUALA-lot si nthes e2 0municipalitie s isconcerne dth e following conclusions can bedrawn : - QUALAi smor ewidesprea di nsand yarea san dparticularl ys oi nth eSouther npar to fth e country,wher eth eapproac h toland-us eplannin gi ssai dt ob eslightl ymor ecasua ltha n in the remainder of thecountry ; 134 - inth emor eurbanize dmunicipalitie sQ UAL Ai sslightl ymor ewidesprea dtha ni nth eles s urbanizedones ,involvin gmor eo fth esmalle rlot san dmor elot swit ha buildin go nthem ; - municipalitiesi nwhic hth eagraria nstructur ei srelativel ywea k( ahig hincidenc eo fpart - timefannin g and/or alo w average agricultural production perholding ) have a slightly higher incidence of QUALA with generally larger lots than those with a stronger agriculture. Also, more of the buildings on the lots in agriculture-wise weaker municipalities retained a clearly agricultural appearance:th e barn is not converted for residential or similar functions; - in municipalities with a relatively weak agriculture more of the QUALA-lots consist mainly ofwoo do rnatura l terrain.Combinatio n ofthi san dth epreviou s finding implies acorrelatio n between "rural amenity"an dth eincidenc e of "hobby farming". - atth eloca lleve la correlatio nwa sfoun d betweendistanc et o thebuilt-u pare ao fa tow n orlarge rvillag ean dth eincidenc e ofQUALA .Compare d toa noveral l incidenceo f 7.3 lots per sq.km of predominently agricultural area thefigure rises t o 10.4pe r sq.km at adistanc e of lesstha n 1 kman dgoe sdow n to5. 4 at more than 2k m from thebuilt-u p area. Typeso f "quasi-agricultural" lots Agrea tvariet yo fuse so fbuilding san dlan dwa sfoun do nth eQUALA-lots .In/figur e2 thi s variety iscompresse d intoth efollowin g sixcategories : 1. distantfield s :agricultural-lot s (mostly grassland,bu t sometimes arablelan d andmaiz e in particular) which are (officially) not used by registered fanners and which do not contain any building; 2. hobbyfarms :lot s containing agricultural land and farmbuildings (including converted ones andnon-far m dwellings with somesheds) ; 3. residential: lot scontainin garesidentia lbuildin g(includin gconverte dfarm-building s and a garden,bu twithou t agricultural land; 4. business : lots, usually containing one or more buildings, which are used for trade, industry,mining ,horeca ,etc. ,usuall ywithout ,bu ti n27 %o fth ecase swith ,agricultura l land; 5. woodlot,e.a . : lots,usuall ywithou ta building ,largel yconsistin go ftrees ,natura ltenain , water orrecreationa l space; 6. other : unusedlot s(i fcontainin ga buildin gthi sshoul db evacant )an dlot swit hunclear , highly mixedsituations . Thelarges tsingl ecategor yo fQUAL Aconsist so fdistan tfields .Wit hjus tove ron ethir do f the lots butmor etha n 40%o f the surface areainvolve d thesedistan t fields are onaverag e larger than the other QUALA-lots. The opposite applies to residential lots, which are numerous (20%o f thesurveye d lots)bu tver y small (10%o f thesurfac e area).I twoul db e tempting toconside r theseresidentia l lots,possibl y togetherwit h the category 'business', as a more apparant form of hidden urbanization, but this would only be the case if the residents have 'urban' jobs or the business concerned could be classified as 'urban'. The datacollecte di nthi s studydon' t allowa conclusiv eanswe rt othi squestion , buti nth enex t paragraph otherresearc h data willb epresente d which wouldhelp . Abouton equarte ro fth eQUALA-lot si sclassifie d ashobb yfarming . Itsaverag elo tsiz e is only slightly larger than that of all QUALA-lots takentogether .I nth econtex to fou r 135 Shares of land-use categories in total Shares of land-use categories in total NUMBER of quasi-agricultural lots SURFACE AREA of quasi-agricultural lots • residential 19.8% residential 10.3% business S.5% ^TTRSg&O&aj- bjsiness 8.6% woodlot e.a. 8.6% hobbyfarm 273% KV/y/Z/^^^^^^^k. woodlot e.a. 9.0% other 1.9% y///////////^^^^^^^ otner ^7% distant fields 36.9% d]stant f]eW 432./o Figure2 .Th erelativ e significance ofdifferen t categories of "quasi-agricultural" land use inventorythi scategor ywa sdefine di na pragmati calbei trathe rpeculia rway : farmbuildings (includingconverte dones ) surrounded byagricultura l landtha t(officially ) isno tmanage d bya registere dfarmer .I na sfa ra sth elatte rwoul di npractic e(an dunofficially ) beth eactua l userthes e'hobb yfarms ' wouldno tb emuc hdifferen t fromresidentia llot si na nagricultura l area. Without asking the occupants difficult questions an attempt was made to assess whethersuc hagricultura llan dwa slikel yt ob emanage dfro m thebuilding so nth esam elot . Twocriteri a were usedi n thisrespect : 1) thebuildings :i sth eorigina l barn stilluse da ssuch ?I fnot ,ar ether ean yothe r buildings on theyar dwit h an agricultual function? 2) fencing and gates: is the field directly accessible from the yard? On several lots a residentialpar ti sseparate dfro m thefield b yfence s and/orconifers . If thisfenc e hasn o gate and the field is accessible from a nearby agricultural lot or a public road, it is unlikely thatw e aredealin g with ahobb y farm. Applyingthes ecriteri a to arepresentativ e sampleo f the 'hobby farming' lots noevidenc e of afunctiona l relationship between theyar dan dth e agriculturalfields coul db efoun d for 40%o f athem .I nthes ecase sth eagricultura lpar to f thelo ti suse da sa distan tfield, eithe r bya commercia l farmer whohasn' tregistere d this field aspar t of hisundertaking ,o rb ya hobbyfarmer wholive s elsewhere. Withoutinterviewin g theresident s statements of thisnatur eremai n purely speculative. In a separate study (Van Santen & Van den Berg, forthcoming) in one of the 20 municipalities aquestionnair e wasadministere d among57 5residents/holder so fQUALA - lots.Som epreliminar y results of this study arepresente d below. The occupants of "quasi-agricultural" lots The questionnaire yielded some 250 useful replies. The vast majory (85%) of these respondents occupy only one lot. An equally high proportion are owners of the land. Virtuallyal l(98% )indicat etha tthei rlo tha sa buildin go nit .Abou ton ethir do fth elot swit h abuildin gcontai n someagricultura l land.Tabl e2 i sa nattemp t toidentif y whatproportio n of thesei st o beconsidere d as 'hobby farms'. 136 Table2 .Lan dus eb y24 1holder eo f 'quasi-agricultural' lots typeo flan duse : frequency: percentage: non-agricultural(dwelling, industry,trade ,etc.) : 1004 15% agricultural (bycommercia l farmer): 2 0.8% dwelling andagricultura l field (self-managed): 69 28.6%* distantfiel d (self-managed): 58 24.1%* agricultural(manage db y other non-commercial farmer) 4 1.7%* various (non-fruit) trees: 8 3.3% total: 241 100.0% *): threetype so fhobb y farming Contrary to the results of the field survey very few respondents say they let commercial farmers use their land, even if one would include the three hobby farmers who have indicatedtha ta commercia lfarme ruse spar to fthei ragricultura lland .Thi sdiscrepanc yca n only be explained by the types of misunderstandings about use and management of agricultural land, thatwer eoutline d inth eintroductor y paragraph. The first type of hobby farming corresponds (both in its definition and in terms of numbers: about one quarter of all QUALA-lots) with that of the field survey. Two other types of hobby farmers could be identified through the questionnaire: those few whous e agricultural land that already belongs to a non-farmer and afa r more numerous category whous e afield awa y from theirhom efo r an agricultural hobby. Mosto fth ebuilding s (91%)ar euse dfo rresidentia lpurposes ,bu tofte n in combination withsom eindustr y(20% )o rstorag e(27%) .Som e80 %stat etha tth eprim efunctio n ofthen - lot is 'residential', 8% consider it primarily as a place for their hobby, 7% for then- profession andmos to f theother s asa sourceo f supplementary income. Aboutthre equarte r(77% )o fth erespondent s saythe ydon' tderiv ean yincom efro m the useo f their land. Some7 % indicate that atleas t half of theirincom e isderive d from their lots. In thesecase s the type of landus ei s clearly not agricultural: a brickfactory, butcher, laundryfirm,contractor ,pub ,etc .Amon gth eresident sindicatin gthe yderiv e'some 'incom e from theus eo fthei rlan da majorit y ofalmos t80 %derive sthi sfro m agriculturalactivities . Comparedt oth efarmin gcommunit yi nth eNetherland sth erespondent shav ea hig hleve l of education. About half has more than primary education and 4% a university degree. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics about 20% of the farmers has more than primary education (1979data) .Whe n askedfo r theirprofessio n thelarges tcategor y (38%) indicated ajo bi n thefield o f industry ortransport .Thi s isfollowe d by administrative and commercialfunction s (30%),professiona l specialistsan dretire dfarmer s (both9%) .Servic e workersconstitut e7 %o fth eresponse .Altogether ,abou ta thir do fth erespondent si sretired . When asked about their priorities for possible land developement activities in the area 40%o fth erespondent sconside rlandscapin g asth emos timportant ,followe d by25 %wh o think first of all about improved access. Watermanagement needs most improvement accordingt osom e 20%o f therespondents .Whe n askedwha timprovement s wouldno tb e in their interest 37% mentions panellation and 30% access. Proposals to improve panellationan dsoi lcondition swoul dthu smee twit hlittl eenthousias mfro m theQUALA - holders and thosefo r theroa dnetwor k probably heated debates among them.Th e interest in landscaping is striking. 137 Conclusions In intensely cultivated areas like thosei n theNetherland s aconsiderabl e proportion (little less than 10%) of the land with a largely agricultural appearance is not a regular part of commercial farming. Locally this proportion can be much higher, especially in more urbanizedan di nth emor esand yarea san dwhe nth eagricultura lstructur ei srelativel yweak . Thephenomeno n is called 'quasi-agricultural' landuse ,becaus e it looks like a (part of a) farm, but strictly speaking isn't that. Compared to agricultural lots we are dealing with extremely smallunit s(mostl yles stha n 1 ha)thoug hlot so fmor etha n 10h aar eals ofound . About a third of these lots are fields of agricultural land with no building on them. No conclusive evidence could be gathered as to how many of these fields are managed by 'hobbyfarmers ' orb ynatur econservatio nbodies ,an dwha tproportio ni si nrealit y (though unofficially) parto f acommercia l farm. Fromfield observation s onewoul d betempte dt o say that mosto f thefield s without buildings, as well asabou t 40% of the lots that contain botha nagricultura lfield an da building ,ar emanage db ya commercia lfarmer .Th eanswer s to a questionnaire in one of the 20 municipalities included in the survey make us think, however, that commercial farmers makeus eo f only amino r fraction of theselots . Scattered dwellings and business with no more than a yard or a garden, together with hobby farms which bydefinitio n include agricultural land areth emos t important typeso f 'quasi-agricultural' landuse .Althoug ha considerabl eproportio no fth eholder so fthes elot s arelocall y based andhav e family ties withcommercia l farmers in theare ai t isno t wrong toconside r thelot swithou t agricultural landa s 'hidden urbanization':occupie d bypeopl e whoderiv emos to fthei rincom efro m townso rundertak eurban-lik eactivitie so nthei rlots . Although disused farm buildings are given a new span of life through conversion this 'urbanization' process is strongly resisted by most planning authorities: it involves the juxtaposition of potentially conflicting types of land use.Besides , much of this scattered urbanization is found to take place in relatively new buildings, which never had an agricultural function, despite thedifficultie s of gettingplannin g permission for them. Thestud yshow stha t 'hobby farming' takesu pabou t2 %o fth epresumabl y agricultural areas inth e Netherlands,probabl y even less.I n theligh to f thenee dt oreduc e agricultural surpluses it sounds like aviabl e proposition to start encouraging this form of land use.I t hardlyconflict s withcommercia lfarmin gan dwoul db eles so fa burde nt opubli cfund s than set-aside arrangements andth elike . Acknowledgements One of thetw o studies on which thispape ri s basedwa smad epossibl e through agran to f theStat ePlannin gAgenc yo fTh eNetherlands .Thi sgran tenable dRuu dJacob st oundertak e the laborious tasks of collecting and processing data on the more than 3000 lots in 20 municipalitiescovere db you rsurvey .Withou thi sperseveranc ea swel la sth eeffort s ofGer t van Santen, who administered the questionnaires inon eo f the2 0municipalities , itwoul d not have beenpossibl e towrit e thispaper . 138 SECTION 3 Farming between ecological and market constraints ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OFMODER N AGRICULTURE Michael J. Troughton University of Western Ontario, London, Canada Abstract Thepaper exploresthe needfor andsuggested approaches to the ecological assessment of modern, industrial agriculture.Industrial agriculture is identified as dominant in developed countries but as operating antithetically to the ideal of ecological sustainability. An observed lack of appropriate geographic models for ecological assessmentleads to discussionof concepts developedin political scienceand sociology, and criteria derivedfrom the agriculturalscientific literature.A suggestedEcological Synthesisis examinedin relationto the impacts of industrial agriculture on thephysical base and in terms of the processes and responses to the needfor change in modern agriculturalsystems. , Keywords: Industrial agriculture, ecological sustainability. Introduction The objective in this paper is to make the case that the geographic study of agriculture, and especially the processes which create changes in agricultural systems, should be undertaken in abroader ,mor efundamenta l context thani s generally thecase ;namel y that it should adopt and apply an ecological frame-of-reference. This involves the explicit recognition that agricultural systems and changes tothem , and torelate d rural, renewable resource systems, need to be assessed as to their contribution to and/or impact upon the ecological sustainability of the system.Suc h an assessment should apply to both thebasi c goals and structures of the system and to its operational characteristics. Ofparticula r concern ismodern ,commercia l agriculture which hasevolve d within and is now the dominant agricultural system in most developed countries, but which appears to function antithetically to ecological principles, as evidenced by its exclusively economic goals and its reliance on technological inputs, which have resulted in a high incidence of environmental stress. The dominant response by those in control or overseeing modern agriculturei st otrea t the stresses asth e undesirable,bu tinevitabl e by products of an otherwise efficient system, rather than as symptoms of a growing and fundamental ecological weakness. Geographers have tended to concur and have concentrated their investigations and analyses on socio-economic and political 'restructuring' within an accepted framework. Ultimately, however, the sustainability of a natural resource system, which agriculture is, requires that it functions in an ecologically compatible manner. The need, therefore, is for the study of agricultural systems and changes to them to incorporate assessment of the goals, structures and operations as these affect the ecological status of the system. Insofar, asmoder n agriculturei sincreasingl y adoptinga nindustria l structurean dmod e 141 of operation, the suggestion of the needfo r ecological assessment is linked to a broader concern that geography, and especially its resource analysis component, should develop and apply models which critically examine the inherent contradictions that characterise the overall approach to renewable and non-renewable resource use in developed, industrial societies. The argument is presented and supported, as follows: first an amplification ofth enee dfo r anecologica lassessmen to fmoder nagriculture ; second, note of geographic concern but the lack of an appropriate model; and third, elements of an ecologically oriented model approach, derived from other disciplines. Thereafter, there is a brief examination of some of the environmental stresses emanating from within and actingupo n modern agriculture,an dthei rdiscussio n from anecologica lmode l standpoint. Finally, some tentative ideas onho wth e geographic study ofmoder n agricultural systems might incorporate an ecological assessment. As a final point of introduction, it is noted that this viewpoint originates in North America, specifically in Canada. This geographic context undoubtedly sharpens one's sense of the widespread occurrence of environmental problems, to the 'contradictions of modern agriculture', and to the question of whether the system can survive in its present form. In Canada, for example, there is continual awareness of the physical marginality of three-quarters of the farmland base,o f the severe pressures on the small areas of high capability agricultural land, of problems of 'surplus' and of inadequate farm income,no t to mention national responsibility as part of the 'global breadbasket', which heighten concern over the increased levels of physical degradation of land, of pollution, and the likelihood and impact of climatic change. However, although the modern, industrial agricultural system began in North America, it now dominates on both sides of the Atlantic and in other developed countries. The system, everywhere, is based on the application of common agro-technology and principles of economic efficiency (Troughton, 1986), and common environmental stresses have been identified in association with it.Th e widespread incidence of both the system and the stresses suggest that thenee d for abroa d ecological approach toassessmen t of modern agriculture,i s also general. Industrial Agriculture and the Need for Ecological Assessment Agriculture, wherever and howsoever it is practised, represents human modification of the natural ecosystem. Modification involves simplification but the dependence upon the physical elements of and the energetic relationships of the natural ecosystem remain. There is some consensus that the degree to which humanly-modified ecosystems retain the structure and diversity of natural ecosystems is a major criterion of their continued strength and stability. Modern agriculture presents a paradox with respect to this ideal. On the one hand, its initial development and success was tied toincrease d understanding of the environmental relationships governing plant and animal production, on the other, itscurren torientatio n givespriorit y tonarro w specializations andeconomi cresultant s and assesses physical 'improvements' in technical rather than ecosystem terms. Modern agriculture is an outgrowth of theSecon d Agricultural Revolution, which was based on the application of improved scientific methods of crop and animal husbandry, including crop rotations, manuring, and control of water (Grigg, 1984). On this base, commercially-oriented agriculturereplace dan dout-produce dtraditiona lsubsistenc etypes . In the 19th and early 20th centuries, greater understanding of physical inputs, applied by an expanding population of newly-independent peasant and individual family-farm operators, supported systems of relatively high productivity and ecological stability. 142 Farmstende d tob erelativel y small,labou rintensiv e andmixe denterpris eoperations .Th e primary inputs were a mixture of manual, animal and mechanical energy and, despite orientation to the off-farm market, there was substantial reliance on the use of and local recycling of organic nutrients. Systems evolved in and adapted to local physical constraints,an dth eassociate dagro-industry ,includin gfoo dprocessing ,too kplac e chiefly within the local, rural-farm community. From an ecosystem viewpoint, the critical distinction between traditional/ subsistence and modern/commercial agriculture is the addition to the latter of external sources of energy and nutrients, the socalled 'energy subsidy' (Manners, 1974).Moder n agriculture utilized some externally-derived inputs from its beginnings, but theseremaine d generally subordinate within and compatible to the local scale of organization until the post World War2 period . Morerecently , however, there hasoccurre d what hasbee n termed a further (Third) Agricultural Revolution, involving the industrialization of modern agriculture Gregor, 1982;Troughton , 1982, 1986).Th e critical aspect of thisrevolutio n has been the huge increasei n thescal eof , and subsequent absolute dependence of production upon the energy subsidy; including the almost complete substitution of human and animal power by mechanisation, vast increases in the use of inorganic fertilizers, the addition of fossil- fuel derived agricultural chemicals, all contributing to the increase in direct use of predominantly non-renewable sources of energy. The huge energy-nutrient subsidy and reliance on secondary manufactured inputs, is part of the overall shift in both the mode of agricultural production and of fts decision making framework, to industrialisation. Modern agriculture has shifted radically, from a system based at the farm and local community level, to one dominated and substantially controlled by other elements of the agro-industrial sector, namely the input-supply, and output processing and distribution components of agribusiness.Th e agribusiness concept is of the agricultural system as an industrial-type assembly line (input— production- output), based on the principles of economic efficiency (i.e. profit maximization at the lowest unit cost of production) and maximum use of technological inputs (the output of agribusiness or allied monopoly sectors). The result has been the drastic reduction of the number of farms, with output increasingly dominated by a minority of large operations, each one organized for specializedproduction ,utilizin gcapita lintensive ,labou rextensiv emethods .Specializatio n within the assembly line structure, means that farm level energy and nutrient cycling is often critically disrupted; crops areprocesse d at adistanc e andresidue s lost; livestock are kept in large numbers under artificial conditions and generate large quantities of organic 'waste'. Individual enterprises are often no more than parts of extended specialist industrial sectors (e.g. grain, or poultry production), organized, irrespective of the local environment, to meet the prevailing economic and technological specifications of the product, irrespective of considerations of an ecological nature. The pressures of meeting the specifications, and what amounts to external control anddownwar d pressure on farm income, leads to farming based on short-term economic goals and militates against the traditional (ecological) farmer concern for stewardship of the land. Also part of the process of economic maximization is the concentration of inputs and of production in areas of high or specialized capability, with the result that large, formerly productive areas are made marginal or 'surplus', which in both human and ecological terms, usually means an absolute loss. Consequently, the net result of agricultural industrialization, which has become the basis for the majority of agricultural output in most developed countries, albeit usually on aminorit y of allremainin g 'farms' ,i s amor eo rles scomplet e exemplification of what 143 hasbee n termed "theenvironmenta l contradictions ofagriculture "(Büttel , 1989),namely , its operation under conditions that are largely antithetical to its widespread, sustained functioning in ecological terms. The suggestion is that, either the industrial approach contains the seeds of its own destruction and, therefore, has a limited life-expectancy, or that its continuation, in opposition to ecological principles, will lead to increasingly severe environmental stresses which will, in turn, require even greater technological and/or economic expenditure. Insofar as this increasingly dominant modern agricultural system seems to exhibit gross inefficiencies in both natural andhuma n ecosystem terms, the conclusion is that there is the need for both a re-evaluation of current systems and also the consideration of further change, within a model framework that is explicitly oriented towards ecological sustainability. Geographical Concern But Lack of an Appropriate Model Geographers have shown an awareness of and have contributed to the description and explanation of theconditio n of modern agriculture,bu t geographic models haveno t been developed for the ecological assessment of complex on-going human resource systems, including modern agriculture. In the 1960s geographers contributed to the discussion of agricultural systems as ecosystems (e.g. Geertz, 1963;Harris , 1969), and to the broader applicability of ecological concepts within the discipline (Stoddart, 1965). But the adoption of anecosyste m approach toth eassessmen to f established andextensiv ehuma n systems, except those in which the natural environment is only slightly modified, was deemed problematic (Stoddart, 1967). In the 1970s emphasis shifted from attention to the biological analog to a broader assessment, when, in relation to the 'energy crisis', the absolute and relative merits of agricultural systems in energy terms were reviewed. In North America, national studies in both the U.S. and Canada documented the rapid growth of the energy subsidy to agriculture from about 1950,an d the distinctions in terms of input-output ratios between the returns to energy intensive (grain com) versus extensive (hay) fodder crop systems (Knight & Wilcox, 1976; Geno & Geno, 1976). The relatively energy-inefficient North American intensivelivestoc ksecto rwa scontraste dwit henergy-efficien t subsistencetype s (Cook, 1977).However , despite evidence of the efficiacy of the energy-based approach and the inherent weaknesses it revealed in modern agriculture, no general model of ecological assessment was developed. Rather, the energy dependency and the associated evidence of environmental impacts resulting from modern agricultural practices, were identified as characteristics of an already 'artificial ecosystem' (Manners, 1974), and attention was focused on the potential dangers of transforming traditional agricultural systems to a similar level of dependence, as, for example, by application of 'Green Revolution' technology. While this did lead to an ecological approach to traditional/peasant agriculture which permeates much of the development literature, modern agriculture was, by implication, taken to have 'developed' to a state beyond the application of ecological criteria, into thereal m of further 'technological solutions' toit s problems. The fact that modern, industrial agriculture, despite its disruptive characteristics, is being actively promoted in both developed and developing countries, was generally ignored. Themos t likely explanation for the lack of geographic concern for modern agriculture in ecological orenvironmenta l termsrest s on three,sequentiall y related situations. Atth e broadest level, Geography, despite claiming a goal of synthesis and a systems methodology, has been weak in the critical area of defining valid areas of concern which 144 integraterathe r than divide thediscipline .Mor especifically , and acritica lexampl e inthi s case,i s the fact that despite its naturalresourc e elements andenvironmenta l significance, agriculturei susuall y considered aspar to feconomi c rathertha nresourc e geography, with the result that it tends to be left out of most environmental analysis. Compounding the situation is the fact that neither of the active areas of conceptual and applied resource analysis within which agriculture might logically find a place, have been able to operationalize in relation to the complexity of the modern agricultural system. The conceptualisation that came closest was that which surrounded the attempts to define the nature and goals of Conservation. The most satisfactory concept was that which explicitly identified the need to recognize all the dimensions of complex human ecosystems (O'Riordon, 1971), but this could not be translated into a statement of purpose or principle in such holistic terms. Consequently, in practice, the socalled conservation ethic has been applied more narrowly; either in relation to the preservation of elements wholely within the natural ecosystem context, or in the search for strategies to slow the rate of use of non-renewable resources; never articulated in a form which could provide the goal framework for the critical analysis of modern agriculture. More recently, both the conceptual and analytical focus has been on the models and methodologies ofEnvironmenta l Impact Analysis (EIA),whic h has been identified asth e primary framework for environmental awareness in geography (Macgill, 1986). Once again, however, agriculture remains largely outside itsframe-of-reference . Although EIA stresses a holistic approach and is seeking to incorporate explicit ecological dimensions intoit s analytic framework (Beanlands, 1985),i t hasdevelope d in thecontex t of, and has been applied to specific and localized activities.Furthermore , although there are plans to broaden E.LA.'s policy and institutional applications, to date these have been almost exclusively within the public sector. The net result has been that EIA has not been seen as applicable to ongoing, extensive and predominantly private sector systems such as agriculture, despite the strong evidence of widespread and frequently critical environmental impacts from agriculture (see below). Political and Sociological Models of Environmental Awareness Although Geography may be the social science most fitted to explore environmental problems, the discipline as a whole has shown a strong tendency to eschew the formulation of overarching models in favour of a concentration on the nuts and bolts of specific problems andmethod s of description and analysis.Thi spragmati c approach may lessen the amount of sometimes esoteric and unproductive debate, but it can be taken to an extreme and leave unanswered the basic questions of, Why aparticula r concern?,an d What isth eObjectiv e ofEnquiry ?Thi s seems tob eth ecas epresently ,perhap s asregard s the whole emphasis on EIA, and certainly when one searches for the underlying reason for Geography's concern with the environment. To return to the matter of the need for an ecological assessment of modern agriculture, other disciplines seem to have moved further in providing the objective rationale to thoroughly re-assess ongoing human ecosystems. While geography recognizes the importance of the political realm with respect to environmentally affecting institutions and decisions, both in general terms (Mitchell, 1979)an dwit hrespec t tomoder n agriculture (Bowler, 1979),Politica l Science,alone ,ha s defined the field of Political Ecology, which attempts to establish a comprehensive framework for the critical analysis of environmental politics. Among other things, Political Ecology: 145 "redirects our attention from the politics of economic growth that treats the natural world as a possible non-entity towards one which takes seriously the scientific proposition that any species seeking survival must live in reasonable harmony with (its) environment." (Beakhust, 1979, 22-23) "seeks to instill an ecological consciousness while trying to diminish blind faith in sciencean dtechnology...(and)...t o developa ne wbalanc ebetwee n economic growth and minimal environmental damage." and "has the ultimate objective of creating a better understanding between man and environment." (Dwivedi, 1986, 378-89) Modern,industrializin g agricultureha sbecom ea nintrinsi cpar to fth eproces san dpolitic s of economic growth, and increasingly treats its impact on the environment as irrelevant toth eassessmen to fit sfunctio n andperformance , whilebecomin gincreasingl y dependent oninput so f non-renewable resource-based energy andtechnology .Lackin g aharmoniou s relationship withth eenvironment ,moder n agricultureinvite s acritica lappraisal .Politica l ecology provides the conceptual rationale from which to promote such an assessment in ecological terms. Political ecology has underpinnings in works in political economy which question the overall direction of prevailing economic models, both capitalist and socialist, in termso f scale (Schumaker, 1974), dependence upon scarce non-renewable resources (Ophuls, 1977),an d the tendency toignor eth eincreasin g disadvantage of those outside developed economies and of the underclasses within (Ward, 1976).A tit s mostradica l itmigh t even embrace the anarchic politics of social ecology (Bookchin, 1982),bu t it also draws upon the sober concerns of biologists and ecologists as to the limits to the sustainability of natural and human systems under thepressure s of thedemand s ofconventiona l economic growth (Erlich &Erlich , 1972; Commoner, 1977). Geographers know of and commonly quote from these works but have not, for whatever reason, formalized their message within the discipline. In contrast, Sociology has recently identified the field of Environmental Sociology, which explicitly recognizes and attempts to conceptualize and examine thematur e and results of the inherent contradictions between the dynamics of ecosystems and human, especially industrial, societies (Büttel, 1986). A major contributor to environmental sociology, Schnaiberg,ha s advanced athree-stag e modelo f thesituation ,whic h confronts the essential 'societal-environmental dialectic', whereby ecological problems are the logical outcome of economic development (Schnaiberg, 1975). The model postulates three alternative syntheses; Economic, Planned Scarcity, and Ecological. The Economic Synthesis has been the dominant historical model for all developed countries, whereby economic actions 'resolve' the antithetical relationship between economic expansion and ecological stability by maximizing economic growth without ameliorating ecological problems.I n some cases,publi c concern over and/or the excessive costs of some aspect of the economic 'solution' leads to the Planned (or Managed) Scarcity Synthesis, in which there will be someregulatio n of economic, social and/or technical activity to meet the most urgent environmental problems, but overall a continued adherence to the ideal of economic growth and moderate economic expansion. The latter may sound familiar, because it is already becoming the main stream interpretation of 'sustainable development' as expressed by groups such as agribusiness and by governments (Johnsrud, 1988-89). 146 In contrast, Schnaiberg's third, Ecological Synthesis, is based on the true sustainability of renewable natural resources, to be attained by reduced levels of use and specific controls imposed upon production and consumption institutions (Schnaiberg, 1975).Thi s solution also reflects the conclusions of the political economists cited above, and thus, while it may seem hypothetical within the framework of current political-economic institutions and the dominant ideal of conventional economic growth, it does represent an arguable and articulated alternative goal. Schnaiberg notes the critical role of monopoly sector capital which directs the prevailing system in a short-term, purely economic context (Schnaiberg, 1980). Modern agriculture presents a situation of confrontation between economic and ecological principles; the process of further integration of farming into the industrial mode, dominated by agribusiness monopoly capital, is creating a system marked by increased dependence, environmental and social stress. The logical solution is a shift towards an Ecological Synthesis. Operational Models of the Ecological Assessment of Agriculture The modern agricultural system is very complex and has evolved within the overall framework of industrial development. It is one requirement to develop an overall critical concept of the system and amode l of desirable change, but another toprovid eth e means for its specific assessment in ecological terms. Here again one has to search beyond the geographic discipline. Ideally, those best trained to make an environmental or ecological assessment should come from within the agricultural sciences where an understanding of the complex, hierarchical structure of agriculture is a central concern (Duckham, 1963). Unfortunately, few agricultural scientists seem to question either the directions or operation of the system, at least not to the extent of proposing (or formulating) aradica l re-assessment. Rather, most agricultural research seems to be oriented to either the Economic or Planned Scarcity syntheses. There are exceptions, however. One scheme notable for its comprehensive approach, i.e., an ecological plus a socio-economic and atechnica l factoring of modern agricultural systems, was presented by Duckham and Masefield (1970). In their discussion of the characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural activity, stress is placed upon the principle of developing and facilitating farming systems that take into account ecological conditions andinteractions ,an dth enee dt obalanc eth erelationship s between productivity and stability of the system. They present a framework for assessment of the farming system based on a hierarchy of criteria. In this scheme the primary considerations are ecological, namely 1)wha t are the ecologically feasible enterprises? and 2) what, if any, areth econstrainin gecologica linteractions ?Onl yafte r thesequestion sreceiv e satisfactory answers, are the infrastructural and production decisions reviewed, with the latter made within the context of the best solution based on conformity with farmer preference and well-being (Duckham & Masefield, 1970). Duckham and Masefield proceeded to evaluate a number of existing agricultural systems as to their 'ecological stability and efficiency'. They concluded that, as of the 1960s, "the combined effect of technological progress and government actions has been to substantially reduce both ecological and economic uncertainty in Canada and the USA". (Duckham & Masefield, 1970, 134).However , this assessment addressed the still predominant medium-sized, family farm system and predated the full onset of industri alized agriculture. Nevertheless, their scheme contains a series of criteria consistent with the goal of assessment in ecological terms. 147 The full establishment andimpact s of industrialized agriculture have become apparent in the last 20 years, especially in North America. Attention has been drawn to the effects of control and the direction of change exercised by agribusiness; the critical weakening of the agrarian structure and rural society (Berry, 1977; Vogeler, 1981), oligopolistic control of farm input supplies and of the food processing and distribution industries (Mitchell, 1975;Warnock , 1978;Kneen , 1989),an d declines in nutrition associated with the emphasis on 'junk foods'. Of particular concern vis-a-vis system sustainability have been the widespread evidence of both environmental and economic stress at the farm level;increase d specialization coupled withth epressure s toproduc e havele dt oincrease d environmental stress and less time for land stewardship, while, despite increased productivity, farm incomes have fluctuated and economic uncertainty, including farm bankruptcies, is probably more widespread than at any time since the Depression of the 1930s (Kay & Stonehouse, 1984; Sparrow, 1984; Troughton, 1985). While the most common responses remain an adherence to the Economic Synthesis, or in some cases the search for 'solutions' as per the Planned Scarcity Synthesis model, there have been suggestions of alternatives, some of which provide for an analytic framework of assessment,base do n thecompariso n of awid erang eo fcriteri a contrasting the negative characteristics of the present system with the positive attributes of an alternative,ecologicall y sound and sustainable approach. Anexample , outlined here,wa s developed in Canada by the entomologist Hill. SOME NEGATIVE ASPECTSO FMODER N AGRICULTURE PREVAILING AGRICULTURAL POLICIES AND OBJECTIVES Maximise productivity* manipulat e distribution Vertically integrate, specialize « simplify. for profit & political influence ('agro-power') Short-term economic policies encourage useo f Increase farm size, particularly with respect .finit e resources,4 damaget oenvironmen t S to non-physical economieso fscale . ^ human health. PHYSICAL BASE SOIL MANAGEMENT FOOD S NUTRITION Emphasiso nhig h capability Most food wastes not returned tolan d Reduced quality (deficient land;minin g ofresource . PhysicallyS chemicall y manipulated; S/or toxic) "Improvements"o fdrainag e results insoi l pollution, sallni- S irrigation. zation, erosionÄ declinin g levels Removal offoo d wastes of organic matter, soil biota,fertility from agro-eco-system by export. BUILDINGS &MACHINER Y PLANT PRODUCTION Proliferation &increas e Basedo nfe w species & varieties Crops often harvested in sizeo fmachine s (often hybrids)selecte do nnon - unripe. Transported, nutritional basis; simple planting stored, processedS Genetic engineering. designs (monoculture). prepared {nutrients lost Crops often unablet ocompet e with S/or toxins added ateac h weeds& susceptibl et opests ; dependent stage). on herbicides, pesticides& syntheti c fertilizers. ANIMAL PRODUCTION Battery housing; Characteristics similart oplan t pro Emphasiso nanima l protein; artificial environments; duction; few varieties;emphasi so n saturated fats. automation. uniformityo fproduct . Feedlots;massiv e waste Dependento ndietar y supplements, accumulation. hormones, antibiotics4 pesticides . Stressed bycrowding ; cruelty. RESOURCE INPUTS ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASPECTS HUMAN HEALTH Dependento nfinit e fossil Responsivet otechnologica l Centralizationo fwealt h Intreasei nnutri fuel energyS othe r non not biological constraints. S power. tionallyS renewable resources (ex Waste overload Scontamin Corporate intervention, environmentally changed for food). ationb ysynthetic , toxic absentee landlords. related diseases Destructiono frenewabl e chemicals; resultsi n Declining farm popu (diabetes, cancer, resources. declining environmental lation. heart disease etc. Linear nutrient flows quality. Farmer dependence. Overconsumptlon; replace natural cycles. Losso fwildlif e habitats Rural community decay. junk foods. & certain species. Losso fprim e landt o urban & exurban uses. (source;modifie d from Hill SRamsay,1976 , Figure2 ) Figure 1. Some negative aspects of modern agriculture 148 His overall concept is based on the contrasts between an economic ideal of 'production for profit and power' with an ecological model of 'production for use and permanence' (Hill & Ramsay, 1976, Figure 1).Thereafter , two detailed exemplifications contrast the 'negative aspects of modern agriculture' (Figure 1) with an 'alternative agriculture' (Figure 2) (Hill & Ramsay, 1976, Figs. 2 & 5). In each case, a range of characteristics and resultants are identified, including the prevailing policies and objectives of the systems, the resource inputs and characteristics of production and the resultant food output, all of which are assessed as to the goals of the socio-economic system, environmental quality, and human health. AM ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE ECO-AGRICULTURAL POLICIESAN D OBJECTIVES Based onrenewabl eresources . 'Permanent'productio n strategies tomee t Holistic approach toproble m solving using individual nutritional needswhil emaintain g multldlslpllnary preventivemethods . ecosystem stability. Environmentally supportive,minimall y Regional self-sufficiency,decentralise d food disruptive,using ,ye t respecting the systems,supportiv eof : 'lawso f nature'- par t ofa surviva l ethic. 1.self-sufficien t homesteads with small surplus, Z. largefarms ,redisigne d along ecological Unes, and 3.urba n food production. PHYSICAL BASE SOIL MANAGEMENT FOOD4 NUTRITIO N Embodying concepto f Conservation or improvement ofsoi l Improvement of food quality 'stewardship'. fertility;applicatio n ofmicrobia l tomee t individual nutritional Geared toclimati c Innoculants,compost , sewage,gree n needs (Improved labelling knowledge & influences. manure and otherorgani cmaterials . standards). Deintensification &lon g Utilizing biological Schemica l indi Return offoo d wastest oth e rotations. cators 1nbalancin g all plant nutrients. Minimal,lo w impact tillage;mulching ; agro-ecosystem. drip irrigation. BUILDINGS SMACHINER Y PLANT PRODUCTION Energy efficient tech Expanded gene pool (newspecie si Minimal processing to nologywit h lowenvir varieties).Breeding ,selectio n& permit storage &distrib onmental impact. management tominimiz e environmental ution. impact,dependenc e on synthetic energy Machinery formanagin g & chemicals, &t ooptimiz e nutritional Promotion of vegetable mixed crop operations quality.. proteins;mor e direct use including small-scale, Complex planting design;stri p &mixe d of legumes,oi l seeds. fuel &anima l powered cropping; rotations.Preventiv ediseas e equipment. &pes t control (resistantvarieties , Organic foods asnorma l Composters; seed ener- nutritional &habita t management) . rather than expensive gizers;Sola rgreen "Herbal"* indiglnousmixture sfo r 'nichemarket ' Items. houses& barns . pasture.See d &folia r application of naturally occurring plant nutrients, — hormones 8microorganisms . ANIMAL PRODUCTION Smaller scale,les s As above.Alternativ e sources Sim Reduction in consumption crowded livestock proved quality offeed ;mixe d pasture of animal proteins; housing. management systems. emphasis on lean,pastur e Useo fearl y indicators indiseas e fed redmea t prevention &treatment ;human e handling oflivestock . Newsource s ofanima l protein (egs. -*- wild game,fis h ponds,Insects ). RESOURCE INPUTS ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASPECTS HUMAN HEALTH Dependent on solar& Nowast e overload through Meta-economlcapproach : Environmental/ renewableenergy ,man controlled production,re sensitive tonon-profi t nutritional models aged ona regiona l cycling Smonitorin g of criteria (externalities ofhealt hS basisfo r permanence environmental quality. ecological Shuma nvalue s disease, without pollution; No synthetic organic chemicals distinguishing between conserving non Manipulation ofdiversit y & real &manipulate d needs) Cognisant ofsoil - renewableresources . succession toprovid e Redistribution ofwealt h food-health Supportiveo rcyclica l stability. S power.Deurbanization , relationships& nutrient flowsthroug h Conservation of rural land decentralization,direc t importance of optimal management scape &wildlif ehabitats . Äco-operativ emarketin g identifying Useo f cyberneticsi n ofwastes . Rejuvenation ofdamage d & optimal dietfo r non-productive land. long-termplanning.Huma n each individual. capital Intensive, employing ecologically appropriate technologies Sensitive towor kquality! . Supportive ofrura l people (source:modifie d from Hill& Ramsay ,1976 ,Figur e5 ) Figure 2. An alternative agriculture. Insofar as the Ecological Synthesis model requires a radical re-evaluation of both the 149 philosophy and operation of farming, there are strong links in Hill's model with writings on alternative, particularly organic farming (Merrill, 1974; Wolf, 1977). At present, of course, these all reflect minority viewpoints, but in Hill's 'alternative agriculture' model one finds acomprehensiv e seto f criteria, each one of which is consistent with ecological principles,an dwhich ,collectively , addu pt oa nexpressio n ofpolitica l ecology and a first approximation for an operational model of an applied Ecological Synthesis (Hill, 1985). The tentative conclusion of this section of thepaper , in which the central theme is the need, and subsequent search for elements of an ecological assessment model for modern agriculture, is that the model should incorporate both conceptual and operational levels. The former, adopting the premise of political ecology, should seek to broadly assess the system(s) and response(s) in terms of the alternative syntheses in Schnaiberg's environmental sociological model. Assessment at this level would emphasize the degree of contradiction between the concepts of sustainable economic and ecological activity. It is necessary, however, to go beyond a broad critique, and to have the means to assess current performance and the likely impact of changes in terms of the operation and performance of the system. In this regard, the sequence of goals suggested by Duckham and Masefield, andth e specific output ofHil l (Figure2 )coul dprovid e abeginning . Hill's criteria offer numerous possibilities for comparative quantitative assessment. Process and Response of Some Environmental Impacts of Modern Agriculture The intent in this section is to discuss some environmental impacts that have been identified as resulting from modern agricultural practice, in relation to aspects of the approach to ecological assessment, outlined above. The examples come from recent Canadian sources which stress loss of soil materials and chemical and physical deterioration (Cootee t al., 1981;Coote , 1983,Sparrow , 1984).Simila rimpact shav ebee n documented in association with other systems of modern, industrialised agriculture. While it is recognized that negative effects, or environmental impacts, do not necessarily accompany all intensive agricultural land use, "Unfortunately, thecontinue d trendt omor e specialized agricultural systems andth e greater impact on agricultural land by other uses have increased the likelihood of soil deterioration rather than improvement", (Coote, 1983,229 ) This has been the case, particularly with respect to increased soil erosion, by water and by wind, and the loss of organic soil materials, in association with specialized cash crop production, some of which has replaced former rotation and/or pasture uses.Durin g the last 20-30 years, accelerated rates of water erosion have accompanied the intensification of row cropping of hybrid corn (maize) and beans in Ontario, corn in Quebec and potatoes in Maritime Canada. Despite the disastrous results of monocultivation of wheat in the mid-19th century (Jones, 1946) and its replacement by a relatively stable grass- dominated system, corn and bean areas expanded rapidly after 1960 (Van Vuuren, 1978). Corn, in particular was associated with the shift to intensive livestock production, including the transfer of livestock from grazing to housing. Row cropping, which leaves the landunprotecte d for longperiod s both between andwithi n growing seasons,ha sbee n accompanied by field enlargement, fence and hedge removal and lack of attention to conservation requirements on even slight to moderate slopes. Levels of erosion in Southern Ontario, which were generally below annualreplacemen t (i.e.les s than 1 t./ha), have risen to an average of over 4 t/ha and are frequently much higher. Intensive 150 cultivation is accompanied by massive use of fertilizers which, in turn, form part of the run-off problem, along with organic wastes from livestock concentrations and pesticide residues (Battison, et al. 1984; Bangay, 1976). The situation is clearly one of Economic Synthesis, with the general response being to practice a regime of continuous corn and beans, or potatoes in the case of the Maritimes,regardles s of both the physical andeconomi c costs of erosion. An Ecological alternative would be to return to or introduce a less intensive mix of pasture, fodder and cash crops, utilizing rotational and other conservation practices (e.g. strip cropping, contour ploughing, etc.). However, this would impact on the intensive production of livestock, the operation and economics of which are dictated by agribusiness processors. Where action is beingcontemplated , it takes the form of the Managed Scarcity approach. The practice of zero or minimum tillage has been developed, but whereas this technique seeks toreduc e erosion bymaintenanc e of aresidua lcover , through which new seeds are drilled, itnecessitate s greaterrelianc e on chemicals tocontro l weeds and pests.Thus ,th e 'solution' retains the ability to maximize the intensive crop-livestock regime, ignoring problems associated with the livestock, increases sales of secondary inputs of chemicals and of new, specialized tillage machinery, while the fanner remains as dependent on the energy subsidy and ecological sustainability is not enhanced (Phillips, et al., 1980). Wind erosion in eastern Canada has also become more prevalent, based on the same conditions that have facilitated water erosion (Fitzsimons & Nickling, 1982; Sparrow, 1984).I n western Canada,however ,th eproble m of winderosio n isth edominan t problem in relation to inadequate moisture, light soils and high winds (Coote, 1983).I t is notable that the Prairies were the first Canadian area to adopt the highly specialized, industrial mode of extensive grain production and that, despite many attempts at mitigation, wind erosion has been a constant accompaniment. The solution is more difficult in a absolute sense, in that alternatives to the hardy grains and oilseeds as the crop elements hardly exist. On the other hand, accumulating evidence suggests that the continued attempts at maximization on this narrow base and utilizing such erosion prone techniques as summer fallowing, i.e. the Economic Synthesis, or the 'solution' of more fertilisation, some minimum tillage and reduction of fallow, i.e. Managed Scarcity, are both resulting in continued loss of the soil base and its fertility, which suggests the ultimate collapse of grainproduction , andwit hit ,th etotall ydependen tfar m andrura leconom y (Coote,e t al., 1981; Sparrow, 1984). A major deterioration of the soil due to chemical process, and also affecting the Prairies, is salinisation. Although mainly associated with attempts to increase water supply via irrigation schemes, salinisation also has a dryland form which is the product of the summer fallow regime (Coote, 1983). A majority of all Prairie soils are alkaline and, given the moisture deficits of the region, are at risk of salinisation (Coote, 1983). While solutions are not obvious, there has been a continued emphasis in favour of increasedprovisio n ofirrigation ,despit eth efac t that,ofte n within 10years ,th elan dma y be less productive than when unirrigated. One has to assume that agriculture on the Prairies must undergo transition toa mor eecologicall y sustainableregime .A tpresen t the only farmers actually attempting to develop and practice this are the minority associated with the organic movement (Earthcare Group 1980). Other chemical and physical impacts of Canadian farmland are more localized, but evidence many of the same contradictions between the perceived need for and actual technological approaches to maximization of short-term, specialized output, and the resultant ecological imbalances. Coote notes the incidence of the rapid loss of organic soils through excessive drainage andintensiv e cultivation; soil acidification as aresul t of 151 excessivenitroge nfertilization ; soilcompactio n from thecombinatio n ofmonocultur ean d useo fheav y machinery; and soilan dplan tcontaminatio n from bothagricultura l chemical and other polluting resides (Coote, 1983). While some of these impacts include the influence of the broader non-agricultural sector pollution (below), intensive/industrial agricultural practices, create the majority of problems. Again, the responses, until recently, have been overwhelmingly in the realm of Economic Synthesis; increases in the scale of operation, elimination of less productive operators, technological 'improvements' to facilitate more uniform monocultural and chemical application procedures, ostensibly to counteract climate and weather uncertainties, but generally to standardise operations, regardless of local physical variation. This has created agricultural landscapes that are not only aesthetically unpleasant but have virtually eliminated natural flora and fauna which add both diversity and greater stability in such areas as soil and moisture retention and pest control. Standardization has also taken place with respect to basic crop and livestock materials. Both major crop and livestock types have become dependent upon a very narrow genetic base.Despit e theinheren t ecological weakness andrea ldanger s ofdevastatio n from pests and disease, the process continues and represents an aspect of increased control by monopoly capital as exercised by multinational seed and livestock breeding companies (Mooney, 1979). The major existing alternative to industrial agriculture which seeks an Ecological Synthesis is organic or bio-dynamic farming. Organic farming has been marked by the long term commitment of itspractitioner s to ecological principles, including the absence of chemical inputs, nutrient recycling and the attempt to practice renewable, conserving and ecologically sustaining techniques. While initially unable to match the spectacular gains inproductivit y of industrial agriculture, organic farming has gradually increased its yields while consolidating the gains in terms of maintenance of fertility and lower input costs (Wolf, 1977).Th eproble m hasbee n that thedominanc e of theeconomi c model and the pervasive influence of agribusiness monopoly capital have limited the necessary research and militated against widespread adoption by other than those fully committed. There are presently, however, some signs that the organic alternative may be being stimulated by aparticula r aspect of vulnerability evidenced by industrialized agriculture, namely the lack of confidence of the consumer in certain industrial products and consequently, an increased demand for those certified as 'natural' (or organic). On the one hand this does reflect the problems of industrial agriculture as increased use of chemicalsresult si ncontaminatio n ofproduct sb yresidues ,includin g fruit, vegetables and some livestock products. In addition, there is concern over the nutritional value of products raised in the chemical environment, ori n thecas eo f livestock, under large scale housed conditions. Actual residue contamination has led to selective banning and stricter controls,i.e .Planne d Management, and bymarketin g techniques which seek to attach the 'natural' and 'organic' values to generally mass produced items. Against this response, however, there is some opportunity for alternative, organic"productio n to move into the mainstream. However, it must be noted that consumer attitudes may be difficult to sustain, and may be swayed by the enormous advertising power in the hands of agribusiness. By comparison, and despite seeming breakthroughs in key markets like California, alternative/organic production still contributes less than 1% to total North American production and to its retail food market (Kramer, 1989; Mittelstaedt, 1989). On theothe rhand ,exponent s of anecologica l alternative would suggest thatecologica l sustainability or the Ecological Synthesis goes beyond the nature and level of production and consumption of food, to include the much broader characteristics of the human 152 ecosystem within which agriculture is situated. In this respect, in North America, the nature of change remains largely antithetical to rather than supportive of an Ecological Synthesis.Evidenc e in support of this contention would include, the increased exclusive- ness of use attached to agricultural land versus potential multiple uses (e.g. recreation, amenity). In some cases this rests on the applications of machinery and chemicals, but it also includes continued removal of elements of natural vegetation (woodlots, hedgerows), to create 'new agricultural landscapes' (Westmacott &Worthington , 1972). The impacts continue to include the demise of many rural communities. Paradoxically, increased intensification offarmin g activity leads toincrease d concentration on areduce d total farmland area. The ensuing debate may involve the choice between declaring the land 'surplus' and using it for other economic purposes, or realization that there exists the potential for at least some level of agricultural de-intensification, which could be the basis of a more ecologically sustainable agricultural system. This situation has already entered the equation in Western Europe where evidence exists of the consideration of each alternative, the former in the United Kingdom, the latter, ecological option, in both Sweden and The Netherlands. The response to Environmental Crises and Their Potential Impacts Upon Agriculture Although it is legitimate to rate modern agriculture as a significant contributor to the present environmental crisis (ref. the impacts noted above), this is not widely accepted. On the other hand, it is accepted that there exist a number of global environmental conditions of crisis proportions, due in large measure to the overall activity of industrial societies. These include the pollution of the atmosphere, including its hydrological component, upon which agriculture is dependent. Although, in reality, the modern agriculture and food system, through its manufacturing and processing and distribution sectors, as well as aspects of production, contributes directly to the production of 'greenhouse gases', acid rain, and climatic change in general, the major concern is totr y and assess the actual and potential impacts of these 'external' conditions on agricultural production. In general, and at the political-economic decision making levels, the solutions envisaged arethos eo f Managed Scarcity rather than Ecological Synthesis.Th e 'need' for economic growth isregarde d as fundamental, and modifications to conditions producing global impacts are being effected slowly,despit e thethrea t togloba l survival, and against substantial opposition, primarily that of monopoly sector capital and its political allies. This has implications for agriculture. Above all, it means that the tendency is not to search for any ecological alternative which would necessarily involve agriculture, but rather to see agriculture adapting to change in the context of either continued impacts or of mitigation of only the most urgent situations. This means that the most likely scenario is that agriculture will face the impacts of significant climatic change within the short to medium term future. Here again there are a range of potential responses. One response could be to use the need for change in the face of this impact toforc e amajo r reorientation of agriculture into an alternative format, which might, for example, stress de-intensification of economic inputs and seek a new ecological balance, possible utilising larger land areas. The other response would be to accept the climatic change and adapt the present approach to it. Presently available evidence suggests the latter response is most likely. General findings are that the level of climatic change will be greatest in the mid- to 153 high-latitudes, i.e. areas dominated by modern, industrialized agriculture, with generally moderate to large increases in averagetemperature s and variable changes toth e available moisture (Smit, 1989).Despit e the magnitude of change, which can only increase under general conditions of Economic or Planned Scarcity synthesis, and which will involve, not only altered conditions of agricultural production, butpotentiall y massive disruptions to social andeconomi c conditions,th epresen t scenarios areexplorin g only thecapabilit y and likely results of adaptations to present production patterns. In Canada, there is even a form of optimism that these drastic impacts may give Canadian farmers 'an edge' over theirU.S . competitors by extending suitablegrowin gcondition s northwards andreducin g capability to the south (Smit, 1989).T o this extent, the implications for change in terms of the threat to ecological sustainability is virtually ignored. Implications of the Application of Ecological Assessment Models to the Study of Change in Modern Agriculture As a conclusion to this discussion of the suggested need for, and possible form of the application of models of ecological assessment to modern, industrialized agriculture, a few, tentative suggestions as to the nature of the study can be made. The model framework outlined includes both a broad conceptual and a more detailed, 'operational' approach to assessment. It seems important to define and to operate along that conceptual-operational continuum. A necessary starting place will be the willingness to adopt an overt Political Ecology stance, and to make explicit that the objective is for a long term solution that sees the replacement ofth eEconomi c Synthesis modelfo r society,no tmerel y through piece-meal responses of Managed Scarcity, but in line with a full Ecological Synthesis. This objective position,i nitself ,wil lengende rgreate rcritica l attention toth epresen t attributes and impacts of modern agriculture, both of itself and as one of the structural elements of modern industrial society. The nature of theEcologica l Synthesis is such that it must be holistic, and the modern agricultural system which spreads way beyond the farm gate to involve all major economic, social and political institutions, must be evaluated in this context. Within this broad framework it becomes appropriate to question every aspect of the system from the farm-level dependence upon the energy-subsidy and control of agri business, to national agriculture, food and land usepolicies , to the framework of interna tional control over the direction of agricultural development. One premise of an ecological synthesis is that the local 'human scale' would be re- emphasised. Tofacilitat e this,th eposition ,role s andrelationship s of various groups need tob ere-assessed . Atpresent , for example,farmer s areincreasingl y embedded in anagro - industrial structure over which they havelittl e orn ocontrol ,ye t areequall y isolated from the rest of society, even its rural component. An ecological approach would be to recognize the need for, and explore ways of facilitating closer relationships between producers andconsumers .Onl ythroug h closercontac tca n attitudesb echanged ,includin g not onlyth eoperatio n of food production, but appreciation of theoveral l socio-economic amenity of a sustainable agricultural community and landscape (Kneen, 1989). Agricultural-resource geographers would,i ti sassumed , adheret oth ebroa dEcologica l Synthesis model. Beyond that, comes the task of developing a critical assessment of present and changing modern agriculture according to operational model criteria, such as may be developed from Hill's and other comparative assessments. An overall suggested outcome will be to place renewed emphasis on the understanding of the structure and dynamics of the farm as the key system (Olmstead, 1970).Farmin g systems should be 154 evaluated according to the criteria of ecological feasibility and sustainability (a la Duckham & Masefield) and particular attention should be paid to the position and the attitudes of the farmers as the key players. Only the removal of constraints, the facilitation of a measure of control and of reasonable security, will lead to personal acceptance and, through that, farm operation in ecological terms. Obviously, however, this assumes some shift towards a radical restructuring along ecological lines. In this case, the need is for application of Hill's criteria to provide evidence of the impacts and long term inefficiencies of the present, economic approach, and to attempt to both identify the results of and simulate a shift to a more ecologically sustainable structure. One obvious change will be the attempt to reverse the dependence on the energy-subsidy, and to critically examine capital intensive methods that characterize every aspect of industrialized farming. Examination of the reversal from intensive tomor eextensiv elan duse s should beundertaken , bothi n terms of the available land resources and possible implications in terms of changes to crop and livestock systems. On the other hand, there might be modest reversal of extensive to intensive labour utilization, both on farm and in terms of the potential reorganization of local processing and food marketing arrangements. Obviously, there would be implications in terms of the nature and cost of food products, in the areas of farm income and the structure of the food industry, but nothing is cast in stone, and there is a pressing need for all of these elements to be brought into the context of ecological rather than purely economic assessment. Perhaps, above all, an ecological systems approach will make explicit the total system linkages and reveal the advantages over the sectoral nature of economic and planned scarcity approaches. Modern, industrial agriculture, despite its currently pervasive influence, is a relatively new phenomena. While it can claim success in terms of its own goals of economic efficiency andtechnologica l application, it has alsoclearl y demonstrated the antithesis of its own dialectic, namely, that ecological disruption is a necessary consequence. If we now recognize the need to adopt an ecological dialectic, i.e. "that ecological stability is a survival imperative",the n theantithesi swil lb etha t "curtailment ofeconomi c expansion is a necessary requirement". This would apply to industrial agriculture as to the rest of society based on industrial (and present style post-industrial) economies. Agricultural geography needs to develop its traditional synthetic approach to agricultural systems based on the objective and analysis of the ecological dialectic. 155 DECIDING AND IMPLEMENTING LIMITS TO AGRICULTURAL LAND USE; An interorganisational perspective on the solution to environmental problems in the Netherlands. Jan G. Groenendijk Institute for Human Geography, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands Abstract Territorialdecentralisation, functional decentralisation in (non) governmental agencies ordirect implementation throughfield offices are used simultaneously for differentpolicy sectors in one state. Developmentof a 'policycommunity' containingall actors ofone policy sectorfrom centralgovernment downto theentrepreneurs ina particular branch of industry promises success. In theintroduction ofmeasures for protection of the environment, it turnsout that the agriculturalpolicy communityis a seriousobstacle. Measures for theprotection of the environment are tobe implemented via territorial decentralisation by municipalities, of which the rural generally are infavour of agriculture.Whereas agricultural policy is directly implementedby field offices of centralgovernment Department of Agriculture. Rural municipalities, by the influence of localagricultural interest, areslow to takethe environmental measures required. Meanwhile, field offices of the Department of Agriculture along withfarmers organisations help the localfarmers in optimising their land use. Keywords: administrative structure, agricultural policy community, implementation. Introduction Traditionally agriculture found its limitations in mastering nature. Fertility, climate etc. limited the man-environment on more or less equal terms. Land ownership by a small dominating group was a cultural limit to intensive use of land. Now that techical possibilities and world-market (be it with political adjustments as in the E.C.) make agricultural production functions dominate rural land use, limitations are to be sought elsewhere. Of course these limitations depend on values that are vested in non-urban areas. And because values tend to differ between interest groups, this paper is about power, decision- making and implementation. In short, about political processes in the complicated institutional power relations of a country with a long standing democratic tradition. Rural environment and agriculture Already adefinitio n ofenvironmenta l problemsimplicate s values."Disturbe drelationshi p man-environment" (Bouwer et al., 1987) moves the question to what is to be seen as 'disturbance'. A simple categorisation of 'environment' sets physical environment apart 156 from social environment. When the man-made part of that ispu t aton e side,w e have the natural part to be separated in biotic and a-biotic environment. Thecultura l landscape has attracted interest from historic times on,late r hand in hand with interest in natural landscape, preserving nature as a value in its own. Preservation societies from urban, mostly (in the Netherlands with little landed gentry) at least non- agricultural, interest almost naturally followed in later era's.A t this moment, the a-biotic environment has high priority on thepolitica l agenda. Pollution and intoxication of water and soil have been a relatively recent issue. It has even for the agriculturists been impossible to circumvent this item in the man-environment relationship. Speeches of prominent people in agricultural 'industry' provide us with clear standpoints as to the relative weight of the several categories in the man-environment relationship we discerned. The a-biotic environment is unambiguously given priority (Van der Veen, 1987). Here the soil itself as the key means of agricultural production is at stake. This is a serious threat to the heart of the economic agricultural value system (Molenaar 1985) and as such has to be taken into account before anything else in the environment. In the mean time (Frouws, 1988) the manure problem as a clear example is handled as a agro-technical problem, much the same way ascrop-rotatio n and all other hazards that has been mastered in past ages. Even this will not prohibit expansion of agricultural production functions. As to the other categories of the environment, the agricultural 'industryvhas its own concept of nature (Van Schaik et al. 1986).O n this item, the farmer considers himself as having enough expertise. In the landscape he values, trees and bushes that accompany panellation play arole , along with 'tidiness'.Thi s is afa r cryfro m the concept of nature which the academic expert, advising on the local plans is heeding. Here is a recurrent conflict, probably reminding the farmer of that with the powerfull gentry when land-use could bedraw ni n the direction of playground, for hunting inparticula r (Verrips-Roukens 1982). Limits to agriculture Agriculturei n theNetherland s doesno t seelimitation s inth erura l environment othertha n the soil as their own means of production (production without land, as in bio-industry or hothouses, still being soil-related by their output of waste). For these problems, there is confidence that solutions will be found as before in this 'tradition of modernisation'. The limits are to be found, then, in the market, be it within EC adaptations. In this respect leaders of the agricultural trade allow for the fact that the market as a whole will not show much growth. Apart from that, they are aware that newcomers such as Spain and Portugal will claim their share of the market. They stress, however (seeing the E.G. as their political arena), that the main aim of the E.C.: production according to local advantages, is not to be given up (Van der Veen, 1987).Dutc h agriculture, having been so successfull in developing these advantages, should not hesitate to advance further. If there is overproduction, the marginal locations are elswhere and certainly not in the Netherlands. If there has to be reduction in (the use off) agricultural land, compensation has to be given to farmers who decide to cooperate. They make it perfectly clear that overproduction in itself will not enlarge the possibilities for the alternative use of the rural environment. If people want this environment for other purposes (nature reserve, recreation or else) they have to buy land out of the market There is no acceptance for limitations of agricultural use other than those which are paid for (no pay no cure!) or otherwise individually compensated. This almost rules out 157 implementation of the policy of the Ministry of Housing, Physical planning and Milieu (Min. HPM), recently pronounced anew in the 4th Report on Physical Planning, of interweaving agriculture and nature. (This being the landscape - and nature within - belonging to specific phase in agriculture of which the half cultured environment is tob e retained with the hand of the farmer). Specific compensatory schemes have been developed (among them the EC 'bergboerenregeling') but application depends on the willingness to bring down the spatial scale of modernisation of land. The tendency is to separate functions rathertha n tointerweave .Relate d toth e 'territoriality' concept of Sack (1981), rather than coming to terms about what (and what not) to do in a certain room, one who is in power simply blocks access. Rural environment as a policy sub-system Clearly, then, deciding limits is a question of power and politics. How to describe the process, how to explain the outcome of processes especially as applicated to this particular policy field in the Netherlands? Domains ofenvironmenta l policy arehighl y fragmented. Some arerathe rnew ,bu ton e even dating from the 19th century. Inrecen t times, now that environmental problems are high on the political agenda several government departments acquired new parts of this fast growing policy field. At the moment four ministries have taken positions. The rural environment asa fiel d ofpolic y is to befoun d among them.Th e Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Fishery has been successfull in acquiring as much elements of the rural environment of other departments as possible, but still has a competitor: the Min. HPM. The political process of deciding limitations to save the environment not only encompasses law-making but anything before and after to rule-adjudicating. This means that the institutional spectre of actors is to be broadened to implementation. For that purpose, the option is either decentralising to other levels of government or 'déconcentration' to agencies under ministerial command. Moreover, on the 'input' side of the political system, groups or institutions of society are involved. How then, in this bewildering chaos of actors,i s decision making and implementation to be analysed? Here we apply the concept of 'policy sub-system' as developed by Wamsley (1985, Milward et al., 1985). This concept organises an overview over the actors involved in a specific issue. It is a sub-system in the sense that it is taken out of the political system (input functions, conversion, output and feedback) at large.Ho w can this subsystem be delineated as a unit of analysis? Hull (1985, 132) suggests that this may be done by setting apart the policy outcomes we are interested in. In this way we delineate the set of actors "...whose doing culminated in the particular phenomenon". In our case this phenemenon isth erura l environment in theNetherland s (soquit elarge ,an d only suitable for an overview). The thrust of Wamsley's approach is that it not only consists of network mapping (who is involved in what position), but looks as well into the political economy of the network to explain why (institutional) actors use their positions asthe y do.Wha t areth eincentive s (resource dependence) toparticipate .T othi s end we are interested in the 'reward structure' that surrounds the network (e.g. futhering one's economic position). We will not advance further than a general overview, but we have a special interest in the implementation at the local level. The reason for this is the peculiar structure of the agricultural trade:productio n being in the hands of an enormous number of small enterprises. The relations in a policy subsystem may be such, that a specific group of actors, sharing aims,influenc e decision making strongly. Such a group - agriculture is a strong 158 case in point - can be looked at as a 'policy community'. The policy sub-system to be delineated by the outcomes for the rural environment is dominated by the agricultural policy community. Agricultural policy community Thispolic ycommunit y can beanalyse di nterm so f 'agrariancorporatism ' (Frouws 1988). Modernisation of dutch agriculture after Worldwar IIha s been managed by an expanding stateapparatu s inclos ecooperatio n with thefarmer s organisations. To advance economic growth 'good' farmers had to be promoted and 'weak' ones eliminated. The vehicle for the technical measures unquestioningly accepting modernisation has been the Board of Agriculturei nwhic hth ethre epillarise dfarmers ' organisationscooperated .I t monopolises (with itsregiona l councils) all agricultural interest intermediation. In much the samewa y several Agricultural Production Boards represent all chains of a sector of agricultural production (farmer,processin gindustr yt oretai l trade). Thesestatutor y trade organisations (agenera l lawinstitutionalisin g them wasmean tt oencompas s all typeso f tradebu tneve r managed to succeed hardly any further than agriculture) cooperate in every piece of policy making and legislation. "Consensus building byelite s of farmer's associations and relevant state agencies is an important feature of the corporatist structuring of the agricultural policy community" (Frouws, 1988, 42). Professionals from farmer's and governmental side speak the samelanguage , shareideology , education andar epersonall y related. The Minister and high officials of his staff generally have this background. The fact that the agricultural trade is technically separate (with its own university) may explain the closeness of this policy community, and its power at that. Indeed,the power of agriculture, disproportionally when measured as a share of production orjob s in the national economy, is to be explained at least partly by the tightness of this policy community. In the policy subsystem under scrutiny, several organisations that are interested in the natural environment have peripheral positions when compared to the agricultural policy community. Legislation for the rural environment is an area for competition mainly between the Ministries of Housing, Physical Planning and Milieu (HPM) and that of Agriculture. In the recent issue of the manure legislation, the Ministry of Agriculture according to Frouws (1988) closely cooperated with its agricultural research institutions. In interdepartmental workinggroup s with the Ministry of Milieu this resulted in Agriculture virtually monopolising all expertise. In the entire legislation process the ways of agricultural corporatism were successful. From an important political issue of choosing between agricultural production and environment it has been reduced to a technical problem. It has been removed from the domains of environmental policy and safely broughtint oth eagricultura ldomain ;farmers ' organisationsorganisin gth e 'Manure-bank' system themselves.A s it is,manur e legislation is completely atodd s with the four zones (A toD ) of increasing natural interest that have been discerned in the Min.HP M -reports (first inth e Structure Sketch for theRura l Areas andlastl y in the 4thReport , Groenendijk 1988). Research shows that - quite to the contrary - bio-industry expanded in the zone where nature was to dominate. This is why Van den Ban (1989) comments on the 4th Report that it does not offer instruments to enact its proposals in this respect. We may conclude that the HPM-department in its coordinating capacity for the environment, is unable to control agriculture. The Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Fisheries gradually acquired more responsibilities for the political subsystem of the rural environment, taking over several 159 agencies (recreation, naturereserve ) only changingit s name by thelas tcabine t formation (1989). This has simply been seen as a practical solution to a problem of coordination (Van Muyden et al, 1984). Their research showed that there were serious complaints about absence of coordination on the intermediary provincial level between numerous inspections that are in some way occupied with rural areas. Experience learned that for implementation of policy all were somehow dependent on the resources contraled by agriculture (e.g. land). Nowtha tthes eregiona linspection s havebee n united, seriousdoubt s ariseo nth e effect that some 'deconcentrated' agencies had.I t turns out (Stakenburg 1987) that only half of the advise of central governments representatives has been taken to heart and implemented by municipalities. Stakenburg's research encompasses chiefly the period in which the Consulent for Nature reserve was still functioning on behalf of the Ministry of Welfare. In that period, conflicting views between several agencies on the rural environment were ventured on this provincial level (PPC).No w that these agencies have been amalgamated, they all arei n the hierarchical structure of theMinistr y of Agriculture and its regional affiliations. Glasbergen et al (1989) show that in the case of the 'Grate Peel' wetland area, the taking overo f naturereserv e by Agriculture has been used byth e latter Ministry to acquiesce and abandon all research and advise that was readily made to preserve this area. Central - local relations So far we have looked to policy processes within parts of the subsystem within central government and its agencies. The concept of policy subsystem takes account of the relation between central decision making and local implementation. On this point it is worth noting, that the dual state model (Saunders, 1981) consisting of central decision making (in a corporate fashion) on production functions and local provisions for collective consumption does not in the least apply to the political subsystem of the rural environment. On the contrary, the power base of the dominating agricultural policy community resides in the more than 100.000 small entrepeneurs, corporatively speaking on the central level with one voice. But in the locality where implementation of (only sometimes) centrally decided compromises has to take place, agriculture in the rural municipalities isofte n only moredominant . Whilen o longerth e economic baseo f arura l community (with so high a percentage of inhabitants commuting), it is still the predominant economic activity inside the municipal territory itself. Munters (1989) has found that rural municipalities since twenty years no longer have a council in which farmers have a majority. But still local decision-making - and with it implementation of central decisions - is coloured by an agrarian political culture (van Schaik et al., 1986). This is favourable to agrarian interests of insiders and their background, and not to environmental interestso foutsider s(allochtonous ,i f atal llivin gi nth emunicipality) .Th e implementation of environmental legislation to agriculture (nuisance act, physical planning) according to many research reports (Van Schaik et al., 1986,Stakenbur g 1987, Glasbergen et al., 1989, Van der Moolen 1985, Frouws 1988) turn out in practice to follow the needs of the farmer. Locally there is the experience of paradox between agricultural overproduction about which one reads in the papers and expansion of farms desperately sought after locally. Scale enlargement being seen as the only way out of trouble. (The Structure Report on Agriculture, may 1989, warns, that expansion of the amount of land of farms is the main solution of environmental problems which the farmers have to face). This particular political economy explains why locally, for the 160 policy options of municipalities land will always be in short supply. This makes local government - for this vital resource for numerous functions - dependent of local land owning farmers. A crucial issue is the application of different measures to fanners according to the location of their land. One of the rules of agrarian corporatism being solidarity among fanners. This runs contrary to the very system of physical planning. Small wonder that municipalities have been very slow in applyingplannin g legislation toterritor y not zoned for building. In the first place, exactly because these plans do not open up new opportunities -rathe r the reverse - there is nopay-of f to finance the planning operation. Secondly, in rural municipalities administrators and politicians do not make themselves popular by taking this type of initiative. Only the stern behaviour of higher authority might impellloca l government toimplemen t the law. Buteve n aslat e as 1985 (2 0year s after the law started functoning) half of the municipalities is still without this type of plan in a completed version. The expertise fanners can mobilise by their trade organisation does not smoothen the way for die local administration. In short, for rural municipalities the scope for their decision-makingi sdetermine db yth emainl yagricultura l territory.Eve nwit ha loca lplan , the law is only partly upheld. Farmers pretend to lack knowledge of local plans, at least of therequiremen t of 'laying-out' permissions in areas with mixed land use (agricultural with nature value). As we saw before, the notion of nature with the local administrators isquit ediffren t of the academicprofessiona l whoa sa consultan t advises the municipality for these plans. Of course then nothing much is to be expected of upholding this plan. Clearly farmers, although no longer forming the majority of the membership of local councils, still influence decision-making thoroughly. Scale enlargement of local government Obviously, a threat to this position would it be, when the drive to scale enlargement of municipalities would do away with rural mnuicipalities. Indeed, it are the rural parts of the country where small municipalities proliferate. In thinly populated areas territories (dating back a long time) mostly are not large enough to reach an acceptible minimum population (ca 8000).A threa t specificaly toth erura l charactero fenlarge d municipalities is the usual proposal to form new territries of a nodal structure by a fusion of rural territory to a small town. Research of the decision-making process of adminsitrative reorganisation learns thatinfluenc e of therura l municipalities is always directed toretai n the rural character for a new municipality (Dijkink et al. 1990). In the many steps that follow after the provincial (nodal) initiative, rural/urban separation is gradually brought back in new proposals in protracted attempts toinfluence . Time and again parliament has been willing to follow these popular views rather than those of the officials. So quite contrary to Munters' (1989) suggestion that administrative reorganistion will completely do away with rural agricultural municipalities, we see (e.g. in the Alblasserwaard) the forming of new large rural municipalities. Their staff is now far more professional but still predominantly within reach of agricultural influence. Implementation through decentralisation or through agencies The agricultural policy community draws its dominating influence from the peculiar structure of central-local relations in the rural environment policy subsystem. According to Frouws et al. (1988) only 10% of the (highly professional) staff of the Ministry of 161 Agriculture is residing in The Hague. Implementation of agricultural measures is tightly in the hands of this Ministry's deconcentrated regional staff. Environmental legislation however has to be implemented largely by local or regional authorities (nuisance act; physical planning act). In case these authorities would consider limitation to agricultural exploitation, professional staff of the Ministry of Agriculture and the fanners trade organisations is regionally present to outwit local authorities. Conclusion: the 'Groote Peel' case Theovervie w of therura l environmental policy subsystem wepresente d may be summed up in the case of the 'Groote Peel' wetland natural area (Noord-Brabant/Limburg; Glasbergen et al. (1989). In the last decade, all notions of preservation of natural area have been applied in written policy for this area. The Ministry of Agriculture however, ever since nature preservation is in their portfolio (1982) left any initiative to preserve it as a wetland, in need of a surrounding buffer-zone. Precisely the designation as a wetland had the effect of a warning to the fanners in this area and enacted precisely adverseeffects . In short timefarmer s starteddrainin g andirrigatio n measures (according to the season) that disturb peat forming in the nature reserve area. The Ministry of Agriculture maintains that the Nature Reserve law they have to implement does not enable them to take measures. This Ministry started hydrological research in 1985 and used this as a means for protracted discussion about the relation of drainage and the dryingou to fth ewetlan d area.Accordin g toSwinkel s (1989)th eMinistr y uses ingeneous calculations to minimise the effects. Meanwhile the regional Landinrichtingsdienst has made a plan with costly technical provisions inside the wetland area so that farmers just outside the area will be able to use their land without any limitation. The fact that this plan costs far more than compensation for the farmers would (Swinkels 1989), indicates that theprestig e of theAgricultura l departmenti s at stake.Decembe r 1988th e Min.HP M forced the municipality tochang e thephysica l plan in such away ,tha tth e farmers would have to apply for lay-out permissions for their draning and irrgation measures. The municipality had to be forced - had not taken these measures by itself - because of agrarian influence. Or, as Glasbergen et al. (1989)pu t it "local democracy was nomatc h for the drying out problem". This effort of the Ministry of HPM caused a head-on collision. The Minister of Agriculture simply advised the municipality to give any permission that would be asked for and ordered his regional officers to advise likewise. Glasbergen et al. (1989) suggest that the Province of Noord-Brabant by using a groundwater and other laws concerning water, might be able toregai n control. This must seriously be doubted however. Making use of these laws is only possible through the activity of the local 'water-board' (waterschap). In these boards however agrarian influence is even more predominant than in the municipalities. Therefore, more attention has to bepai d to the whole structure of incentives that explains theposition s taken in the •rural-environmental policy subsystem. 162 ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT CAUSED BY AGRICULTURE Saverio Lorenzetti Institute of Agricultural Economics and Politics, University of Verona, Italy Abstract The EEC Dir. 85/337 is submitting various agricultural and forestry projects to environmental impact assessment. To begin with, an analytical comparison is made between the actions commonly used in agriculture and the environmental sectors interestedin the impact according tothe different land uses. Successively thepaper deals with theproblems relative to the choice of highlysensitive environmentalindicators to achieve the impactmatrix for softwarebased on themulti-objective and multi-attribute analysis. Keywords: environmental, impact, assessment, agriculture, indicators, software. Environmental impact assessment EIA must be able to assess the various alternatives of a project, in order to choose the one which makes it possible to reconcile the demands of the proposer with the various needs expressed by the social groups involved in the decision, while respecting the environment. Impact is made by a whole lot of direct and indirect effects which alter the original environmental conditions.Give nthei rintricat einteraction ,i ti sdifficul t todetermin ethe m and a good knowledge of the laws governing the ecosystem must be presumed (SITE, 1982). Theenvironmen t mustno tb econsidere d onlyfro m aphysica lpoin t of view,bu trathe r as a dynamic global system in which the evolution of physical, biological, social and economic relationships depends on the development of human activity which, even when it is not harmful, modifies in any case the equilibrium of the ecosystem. EIA should not beconsidere d a super subject claiming to give adefinit e answer, even if it does make use of varied technical know-how. It is simply a system in support of the decision. It is intended to be aprocedur e to which the intentions of thepropose r must be submitted, so that the decision-maker -i n the lastru n the public administration - may be adequately informed before authorizing the activity asked of it (Lee, 1983). A question being discussed at present concerns the relationship between cost-benefit analysis and EIA (IRER, 1984). According to some people, these two evaluation methodologies should be kept distinct but both be offered to the decision-maker. In fact, the latter analyzes environmental effects more specifically, while thecost-benefi t analysis is more concerned with the economic aspect. There is no doubt that both methodologies will have, in some way or other, to be integrated. Oncei tha sbee nrecognize d aseconomicall y orfinanciall y convenient,th e undertaking must be confronted with the capacity of the environment to sustain it with a supply of 163 natural resources needed for several uses all at the same time.I t must alsob e confronted with the effects which will result from its installation and running. The study of environmental impact necessitates the definition of the territorial base interested in the intervention. This may be ample if it concerns an intervention of a general character, or limited if iti s localized in aparticula r point. The application ofEI A on aregiona l scale could be a valid support for territorialplannin g and for social-econo mic programming if done in advance. To apply it when the various land uses have already been defined or when the choice of future settings has already been made means limiting the possibility of applying this method, since it is more difficult to find alternatives or to introduce mitigatory measures. The EEC Directive No. 337/85 greatly contributed to the formulation of guide-lines enabling member states to adopt environmental legislation which was systematic and sufficiently similar. Enclosure I of this directive lists the series of large-scale works for which EIA procedure is always compulsory. Projects referring to the agricultural and forestry sector are listed in enclosure II. This contains the activities which can be the object of assessment when the member states deem it opportune because the activities are considered important from the point of view of quality and of quantity. These projects concern rural recomposition, assignment of land or of uncultivated plots to intensive farming, agricultural hydraulics,forestation , intensivepig-breeding ,recover y oflan d from sea and other activities. The choice of method This paper is based on the analysis of one of the many available programmes of impact study (Colorni et al., 1988), in order to evaluate the expediency of its application in the agricultural and forestry sector. Among the numerous models of impact analysis which have been published (Alberti et al., 1988), the matrix method seems most compatible with the programme chosen. An interaction matrix is based on the principle of putting the activities of the project in relation with theenvironmenta l factors susceptible to being influenced by them.Her e we might recall Leopold's interaction matrix, Clarke's or Moore's. Whatever matrix is adopted, it is necessary to construct a matrix for every possible alternative. Then one proceeds to obtaining a vector by means of a series of aggregation operations. In this way the matrix is reduced to a single column where a single element for every line summarizes all the possible influences of the individual actions of the projects on each of the environmental sectors interested. The assessment, in the strict sense of the word, is based on the matrix of the impacts in which thecolumn s are given byn vector s corresponding toth en alternative s examined in the previous phase, and the line by the indicators. Through a series of steps, the programme studied allows the elimination of the less satisfactory alternatives and procedure with areduce d matrix. The user, in his turn, can intervene on the matrix with opportune operations provided for within the calculation programme so as to obtain, in the end, a series of orderings of alternatives which will differ according to the optimization of the objective function chosen, likewise keeping account of the analysis of the worst case. 164 The role of agriculture in environmental impact Agricultural and forestry activities almost always occupy vast surface areas which are easily perceptible and which, in most cases, are intermingled with other social-economic situations. It is possible to pass from mountain areas with widespread woodland and pastoral activities, where the population density is very low, to plains where farm lands border on industrial and urban settlements. In such a situation, farming occupies a particular position as it has to suffer the pollution produced by off-farm activities and, at the same time, it is itself considered responsible for changes in the natural ecosystem in varying degrees; man-made intervention is implicit in cultivation (Cannata, 1988). Fundamental naturalresources, suc h as soil, water and air, are indispensable not only for the functioning of the agro-ecosystem but also for all other human activities. While the land is an important production factor in agriculture,carefu l land planning will try to take the natural vocation of the land into account so as to prevent soil, endowed with good agronomic properties, from being taken away from farming and destined to other uses. Large quantities of water are used in farming, but everyone knows of the pollution of rivers and irrigation canals caused by the industrial and urban development of recent years as well as by farming and zootechnical activities themselves. The function of farming is not only to produce but also protect the landscape and conserve nature and use it for recreational and biological purposes. ' Consumer preferences are also changing and the demand for quality products free of toxicresidue s is increasing. Soi t is not a question of agriculture having toproduc e more but to produce better, using technology which respects the environment. In future, it will not be easy to reach at the same time two such different goals as the protection of farm incomes and the quality of the environment. Butresearch i sproceedin g in this direction. While impact generated on farming by other activities is being closely followed by many scholars, using experimental models, the problem of knowing what is the actual contribution of fanning to pollution stillremains open . If we keep in mind that different impacts are obtained according to the type of product grown, to the most common type of tenure, to the characteristics of the farms and the technologies employed on them, it is easy to understand how alternatives can be created to be introduced into the impact matrix. The impacts generated by errors made in the sphere of the forestry sector are much more serious than those in farming since their repercussions are felt for a much longer period of time. Countryside can be interpreted as the result of a primary economic activity and expresses itself through an evident physical configuration and manifests determined landscape values as well as historic, economic, social and cultural ones. The most difficult thing is to pass from observations about quality to measurements of quantity which reveal the environmental quality of the area where one wishes to operate. In this research work one should let oneself be guided by agronomic and economic criteria. The economic theory of a farm considers the land, capital and labour as productive factors, co-ordinated by the intervention of the entrepreneur. At first sight, it seems important for theenvironmenta l profile toconside r theaspect sconnecte d with land and crops, but a closer analysis emphasizes that the use of certain technologies or the presence or otherwise of manpower in a determined area might contribute to degrading or also to safeguarding the environment. It will be realized that factors which once seemed inexhaustible and available for an undetermined number of productive cycles, such as water, air and solar energy, can no longer be considered such, in view of their impoverishment and of the pollution caused by human activities. In agriculture, on the 165 other hand, it is possible to make widespread use of divisible factors, the quantity of which can be varied during utilization. This fact, which necessarily implies human intervention, will surely facilitate the beginning of a more correct relationship between agriculture and environment. The analysis phase In this phase, use will be made of a matrix which provides comparison between the actions undertaken by agriculture, forestry activities, stock breeding or agricultural indu stries and the environmental components susceptible to impact. The activities are listed in the columns of the matrix while the environmental sectors appear on the lines. In thecas eo f agriculture (Figure 1),th eaction s tob econsidere d mightregar d thelan d preparation, sowing,fertilizing , theus eo fpesticides ,irrigation ,agricultura l arrangements, other particular cultivation techniques and harvesting. The environmental components interested are soil,drainage ,water , air,vegetation , fauna, geomorphology, erosion ands o on. In order to complete the analysis, other components can be added with more global characteristics concerning social and economic aspects such as demography, social welfare, citizens' health, agricultural accountancy and landscape. If we wish to compare certain types of farming, the EEC classification could be kept in mind. This provides for three arrangements (arableland , fruit trees,anima l husbandry) linked with land use, together with a fourth one - stock breeding, without land. There is also the case of noprevailin g general farming. Specialized farming based on a monocul ture notably interferes with the environment when profiteer crops are introduced. The organic nitrogen in the soil isreduce d andchemica l substances,wate r and mechanization neededi nquantity .Othe renvironmenta lrisks ar elinke dt olarg ereclamatio n workswhic h entail the re-organization of vast areas, the regulation of waters and the admissions of new crops. Intensive stock breeding is linked to the availability of areas for liquid manure disposal, keeping in mind the permeability of the soil, the proximity of water-table, the presence of inhabited areas and the metabolic absorption of the various crops.I n thecas e of intensive stock breeding, the principal actions are fodder supply, management of livestock, sewage disposal, infrastructures, processing and marketing of products. Actions expected in forestry might be land preparation, planting, fertilizing, method ofregeneration , forms ofcutting ,fores t watershedmanagement , utilization,roa d network, wood processing plants and frequency of fires. Each project givesris et odifferen t impacts sotha ta numbe r of analysis matrices equal to the alternative expected must be set out,includin g the alternative "zero", which means considering the possibility of not undertaking any change regarding the actual situation of the territory. The choice of indicators and the passage to vector After thepreliminar y qualityresearch ,on eproceed st oth echoic eo findicator s expressing impacteffec t inquantitativ e terms.Al lth eactivitie s undertaken byfarmer s tryt oimprov e the physical and chemical properties of the soil and the quantity of output, but at the same time they can generate negative effects on the environment and on man. In the analysis matrix (Figure 1) some indicators typical of different sectors with their unit of measurement are listed. The choice of indicators is aver yimportan toperatio n whichmus tb ecarrie dou twit h 166 CO Actions CD CO 3 "G a- SCD '3 c eCDn o G c "S CO rO £ G g JO CD î-, 13 -a tn g s-. a -a a o 13 13 o. G o "co CD G > G CD ra 13 a g CD o~ N "3 co > a. a 13 g o CD -o *o 1 CD > CD CD S -G CD CD Indicators CO A, c CO tt-, s-. O 10 Elementary 1. Water potential 5 2 4 3 5 2. Organic matter 20 15 14 9 16 20 3. Acidity 8 7 7 5 5 4. Nitrogen (total) 30 45 50 50 10 50 5. Phosphorus (P205) 1 1.1 1.5 0.5 1.5 6. Chlorinate pesticides 10 12 12 55 60 60 7. Phosphureted pesticides 10 105 110 110 8. Winds F I I U U U U 9. Reclaimed areas 5 3 4 12 10. Wild species 6 4 2 4 11. Slope stability 25 10 15 12 18 12. Soil loss 1 0.5 0.3 0.2 2 Global 13. Quality of view D 14. Active farm population 169 15. Motorization ratio 35 16. Grosssaleabl e product./ha 500 Unitso fmeasure .Soil : 1.= pF ; 2.= C/N ;3 .= pH .Water : 4.& 5.= kg/ha/yea rremoved ; 6& 7.= p.p.b . Air: 8.= Favourable , I:indifferent , U:unfavourable . Vegetation: 9.=ha . Fauna: 10.= No.Geomor - phology: 11.= % . Erosion: 12.= tons/ha/year . Landscape: 13.= clas sD :poor . Demography: 14. =No . Quality of life: 15.=vehicles/10 0 inhab. Farming: 16.= i n 1,000 lire. Figure 1. Analysis matrix and vector of alternative great attention, so as to use those endowed with greatest sensitivity in the registration of the modifications induced by the various actions and which, at the same time, are easy to measure (FAST-SITE, 1988). Doing this selection it is very important to consider also the hypothetical relationships of the indicators with the general development of the area and with the safeguarding of the environment. The success of these operations depends a lot on the composition of the interdisciplinary group of technical specialists constituted to apply EIA. The matrix might also contain some global indicators concerning social and 167 economic aspects, the introduction of which must becarefull y evaluated. As they areno t correlated directly with a specific action, they should be more appropriately inserted in thevecto rcolumn .Th eindicator s listedi nFigur e 1 arepurel y hypothetical andth evalue s exposed do not refer to a precise experimental situation, but have been obtained from different territorial analyses. The use of the computer will allow aggregation and disaggregation operations on the columns and on the lines to be done rapidly. The vector column is obtained by keeping almost unaltered the number of lines, that is indicators, while the aggregation of the actions of a project in a single column is done by using models and algorithms. This is one of the most delicate operations which should be done line by line indicating the function used which can differ from one line to another. In order to simplify the operation, in the example shown aggregation has been obtained by adopting the greatest value for lines 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7,; the lowest for line 3,th e worst case for line 8, the sum for lines 9 and 12 and the averagefo r lines 10an d 11. It should be noted that the vector can contain some of the global indices too, as in lines 13, 14, 15, 16, which cannot be assigned to specific actions but represent the interference of the whole of the project on particular aspectswhic hon e intends toemphasize .I norde r to avoid thevecto r containing qualitative elements, it is necessary to carry out a conversion in numerical terms on the matrix elements expressed qualitatively using terms expressly indicated. The evaluation phase According to the method adopted, this phase begins with the construction of the evaluation matrix, orimpact s matrix, which allows acompariso n between environmental indicators and proposed alternatives. It is formed by the matching of anumbe r of vectors equal to the number of alternatives. In Figure 2 some elaborations of the evaluation matrix with the use of hypothetical values are schematically indicated. A^ A2 A3 Ao A, A2 A3 Ao Weights 20 80 0.1 0.7 0.5 80 100 90 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.9 15 80 0.7 0.9 1.0 -a a 95 0.2 2.5 Q 50 100 1.0 1.0 1.5 65 t 0.5 1.0 Normalization: values from 0 Environmental quality: values to 100 from 0t o 1 Ao= Alternativ e«zero» : theprogramm eexpect stha tth evalue sinserte d inthi scolum nautomatical ly occupy the empty spaces of all the matrix columns. Figure 2. Elaboration of evaluation matrix 168 Generally, the first operation is normalization, that is, the transformation of the value of the elements into adimensional units included between 0 and 100.Thi s is required byth e fact that the indicators are expressed with different units of measurement. Normalization is done line by line according to various methods and functions which it will be well to specify. The most difficult operation of the evaluation phase is the passage from indicators to decisional criteria using environment quality indices which allow a judgement to be expressed on the validity orotherwis e of the alternatives regarding each single indicator. Thecritica l point of thisphas e isth e identification of therelation s between the indicators and thequalit y ofth eenvironmen t which areofte n uncertain andcharacterize d bymarke d non-linearity and by the presence of synergic effects (Dee et al., 1972). These relations are different from line to line and are comparable to the utility functions found in economics. They allow the expression of matrix terms with numbers included from 0 to 1, where 1 corresponds to the maximum "satisfaction", that is to the greatest environmental benefit, and 0 to the highest degree of "dissatisfaction" which, according to the cases, will not be acceptable beyond certain limits. During the handling of the impact matrix,anothe rdelicat epassag e tob e considered is weight determination. The importance relative to the various decisional criteria which are always linked to alterations of soil, air, water and other factors, is different according to the point of view of the technical specialist, the decision-maker and'other social groups.Ever y time the weights vector is changed, it means obtaining adifferen t ordering of the alternatives. Weight determination presents a character of subjectivity similar to the one of monetization of environmental damage and benefits, which has already been rejected. Toobviat e this inconvenience, theprogramm e continues with a series of further tests before arriving at the final ordering of the alternatives which remains modifiable according to the objectives to be reached. In the analysis phase, the contribution of specialists is required for identifying environmental indicators which are extremely sensitive but at the same time easily measurable. In theevaluatio n phase iti sno tles simportan t todefin e therelation s existing between the qualities of the environment and the indicators themselves, besides seeking out models which will make thedeterminatio n of decisional criteria weights less and less subjective. 169 SOME POSSIBLE TRENDS OF CHANGES IN THE PRESENT LAND USE PATTERN OFEAS T SERBIA Natasha Milanovich Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Belgrade, Yugoslavia Abstract Theactual structure ofthe use of productive land is not an index of itsreal quality. More andmore agricultural land isuntitled; mostof it is idealfor forest andpastures. Oneof the consequences of disagrarization and depopulation is the phenomenon of aged households inrural areas, and increasing numberof holdings ownedby non-farmers who inherit the landbut do not cultivateit. A factor thathampers agricultural production is the limitset to landownership whichhas been introduced inorder to curbprofits onthe individualfarm. Possible solutions would be a taxation policy discouragingan owner who does not till the land and theproduction should be market oriented. Keywords: agriculture, land use,depopulation , disagrarization, land ownership, taxation. Introduction An analysis of the present method of land use has shown numerous deficiencies which are most often consequence of ignorance and uncontrolled human behaviour as well as of a nonrational land organization in general. The biggest errors have been made in the use of agricultural land, which is basic natural resource. The present structure of the use of productive landdoe s notreflec t the valueo f itsquality . Thedevastatio n of agricultural and forest land or a use inappropriate to its quality structure necessarily call for urgent protection measures which will prevent inadequate usage and waste. Disproportionately large agricultural areas,particularl y arable land exceed in size the real land possibilities. It is alarming to see what large amount of poor quality soil are used as arable land. The cultivation of food plants should be restricted only to the good quality agricultural land (the firs four classes), whereas all the classes beyond the fourth should be used for growing grass and planting trees.The deterioration of agricultural land has been induced by anon-rationa l system of tillage, excessive use of chemicals, nonqualified applications of the means of plant protection and fertilizers which lead to the degradation of the soil, reduce yields and damage forests. Non-rational use of forest reserves has resulted in lower productivity of forest trees with small technical value, which indirectly has had a negativeeffec t onth edevelopmen to fagriculture ,waterpowe rengineering ,woo dindustr y and tourism. Inadequate use of forest vegetation has generated not only a structural change of landscape but also land devastation and the creation of bare mountainous terrains and erosion processes. Results and discussion Theagricultura l landreserve s shouldunderg ocertai nqualitativ e andquantitativ echanges . 170 Table 1.Comparative statistics data Republic Republic East Serbia of of Serbia Region Serbia proper* Land area km2 88361 55968 7131 Population - census 1981 13676 5694464 351145 Population density per km2 105 102 49 Settlements total number 6151 4242 263 land area km2/settlement** 14.4 13.2 27.1 population 1981/settlement 1514 1342 1335 Population growth % 1961-1971 10.8 8.5 2.8 1971-1981 9.8 8.1 0.8 Distribution of labour force % in total population 64.4 67.0 65.6 Activity rate % 1981 43.3 49.5 56.0 Agricultural population % in total population 25.0 28.0 36.0 Contribution of persons employed in agriculture as % of total employed population 1981 34.1 28.3 52.0 Agricultural population/100 ha of arable land 1981 48 56 33 Agricultural land use % in total land area 65.0 60.3 52.9 Land use of which % 1986 arable land 44.0 49.0 42.2 grassland 19.0 12.0 10.2 forests 26.0 32.0 42.0 other uses 11.0 7.0 5.4 Distribution of national income % 1986 agriculture 19.0 14.1 19.1 manufacturing 45.3 47.1 47.1 services 35.7 38.8 33.3 Production of wheat kg/ha 1987 public sector 4848 4289 3191 private sector 3266 2775 2547 Production of corn kg/ha 1987 public sector 5988 5534 3818 private sector 3768 2812 1999 without provinces Vojvodina and Kosovo cadastrial area A considerable part of the existing arable land of low fertility in themountains is to be gradually turned into more suitable categories - meadows, pastures and sometimes forests. On the other hand, in the lowlands, the arable land area should be increased at the expense of meadows and pastures. An increase in the number of livestock can be planned only if high quality fodder is produced. Alarge r land area should beplante d with fodder andindustria l plants instead of corn, and all the soil under 171 EASTSERBI A REGION:AGRICULTURA L LAND USE PATTERN arable land fruit and vinyard meadows pastures contribution of agricultural land use of each municipalit/ (8) in the total agricultural land area of the region 1986 agriculture population % in total population of each municipality 1981 50 - 60% III! 40-50 30-40 20-30 10 15 20 25k m 10-20 Figure 1.Eas t Serbia Region: agricultural land use pattern 172 fallow and untilled land should disappear from the arable land structure. The future development of market gardening, fruit and wine growing must involve the application of modern technology, mechanization, agrotechnical re-organization and economic measures intended to improve the process of production to bring more profit and meet the market demands. The cattle-raising area should also be divided into different zones, each of them specialized in aparticula r kind of livestock depending on: the configuration of the land; yields; costs of cattle feed production on arable land; as well as the vicinity of the market. The cattle-raising households should be established on large holdings primarily outb yreturnee s from abroad whohav e enough money toinvest . The useo f manure from smaller farms as biogas on individual farms can solve the heating problem in rural settlements. Regrouping of holdings and land consolidation will help reduce the number of plots within a holding and increase the area to make possible the application of all the necessary agrotechnical measures. Land consolidation is one of the most important prerequisites for a more efficient exploitation of hydro-melioration systems. Hydro- melioration, as a technical measure intended to improve productivity, requires high investment out of the gross national income. Betterment works should be carried out by stages and over ä longer period of time, so that increased production can, finance the construction of new systems. A rational land use implies the setting up of boundaries between agricultural and woodland area in the mountainous regions according to the natural conditions and economic factors, aswel l as theus eo f agricultural landfo r non-agricultural purposes and the establishment of a betterment program. More and more agricultural land is left untilled. Most of it belongs to the 6th, 7th and 8th quality class - low quality fields, meadows andgrassland ,whic his ,owin g toit spedologica lcharacteristics ,idea lfo r woods and pastures. It is absolutetely necessary toplan t trees on all larger slopes, highly eroded areas, active or potential landslides, as well as damaged land surfaces such as deserted mines and barren soil. Apart from raising new forests, it is necessary to take care of the oldones .Th eraisin g of field protecting woodland belts and smaller woods in agricultural regions can counteract some negativeprocesse s causedb ylan dconsolidation . Theraisin g of protective woodland belts around settlements, industrial and mining zones and buildings as well as roads is necessary for the protection of the human environment and recreation. An expansion of agriculture and small business can help slow down migration and keep an optimal number of inhabitants in the region. Given limited budgets, the development of agriculture and smair business needs much fewer investments than industry, while the development of local handicrafts has a significant role in employing women,wh o arepredominantl y unskilled labour, andi npromotin g tourism inrura l areas. The restructuring and rational use of predominantly mountainous boundary regions, have made an important contribution toth e development of a specific type of agricultural production and forestry. This is manifested in the cultivation and intensive use of grassland, the development of quality sheep raising, cattle breeding, organization of pasture fattening of livestock, collection and primary refinement of wild (medicinal) herbs, the planting of trees on bare mountainous terrains, land protection from erosion, and the development of tourism, thus providing a market for agricultural products. An intensive program of suburban housing construction and also the building of factories and roads on agricultural land contribute to land degradation and destruction. 173 One of the most striking results of disagrarianization and depopulation is the formation of agedhousehold s invillages ,whic h hasha dvarie deconomic ,social ,healt h andcultura l consequences. The aging of farmers at the same time means a decline of the working potential necessary tomaintai n afarm , which givesrise t osocia lfallow . Thelan do f aged households is used far below its capacity due to bad mechanization, no application of agrotechnical measures, financial restrictions and the lack of motivation in the absence of an active farmer who would inherit the farm. An increasing number of holdings are owned by non-farmers who have inherited the land but do not work on it. Taxation policy can greatly stimulate the farmer into cooperation. It must be effective enough to make the land too expensive for an owner who does not till it or uses badly, but profitable for one who uses it rationally. That would not only make the unfilled area smaller but also stop any further splitting up of holdings. The production on joint holdings should be planned in advance according to their size and the number of people capable of working on them. The infrastructure should be adjusted to the demands of the market and possibilities of selling the goods. Therelation s within afarmerin g community shouldb eestablishe do na nincom ebasi san d founded on clearly worked out economic principles. One of the limiting factors in the production of goods certainly is the land maximum (10 ha) which has been fixed for years of making too high profits on an individual holding. Table 2.Distributio n of land holding in SR Serbia proper by size of farm Size of farm year (ha) 1960 (%)1981 0- 1 10.9 20.5 1 -3 29.7 30.3 3-5 24.3 21.1 5-8 19.6 16.4 >8 15.5 11.7 Conclusion A developed society must pay more attention to education, culture and health care, as well as the prosperity of social institutions for the care of children and old, especially in rural areas, because it will reduce migration tendencies towards urban centers. As the primary rural settlements inevitably become smaller, the rural centers must be made stronger to attract country people and keep them, thus making the necessary conditions for organized production and socio-cultural infrastructure. The rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent years have placed an emphasis on economic problems, taking little notice of the countryside,an d its use.Th e neglecting of ecological aspects of production has given rise to some conflicts connected with physical planning andprotectio n of the environment. In the further development of rural regions, economic criteria should be equally valid but the attitude towards land use and environmental protection should befundamentall y changed. Somepossibl e solutions and suggestions is to how to change the purposes and ways of land use should be found in the change of policy toward economic, land, investment, credit, foreign trade, social, taxation and property, as well as in the change of the role of countryside in this society. We should become legally and politically aware of the human environment, bearing in ming that quality is animportan t of ecological culture.Th epresen t communal techniques 174 as well as the technologies used in industry, mining and agriculture have their own limitations lacking efficiency in protecting the environment. Economic policy measures should stimulate the use of such technology that would protect and benefit the living environment providing permanent and stimulating sources of funds. Far from being an obstacle to social progress, the protection of the surroundings has come to mean the management of land and other natural resources in accordance with the real possibilities of theenvironmen ti nquestio n andecologica llaws .Man' s destructiveinfluenc e hasbee n so powerful and complex in recent years, that now the negative consequences can be overcome only with great efforts, which calls for high long term investments, but there is no choice if we want to break out the vicious circle and survive. 175 TRADITIONAL ORCHARDS INTH EDOMLESCHG :HOP E FOR AN "OBSOLETE" LAND USE? Justin Winkler Department of Geography, University of Basel, Switzerland Abstract Vast orchards and a great number of varieties of fruit are characteristic of the arboriculture in the Domleschg valley, Canton of Grisons,Switzerland. As a result of changing economy and life-stylesthe once importantquantity ofproduces fruit can no longer be stored in suitable private naturalcool cellars.This causinga lack ofprivate consumers,leads to a decreasedinterest in the maintenanceof treesand orchards and produces signsof decay. Yet arboriculture is wellrooted in the mind of localpeople and represents a vital link to the landscape. An effort is being made to improve the maintenanceof standardfruit trees. Keywords: standard fruit trees,orchards , fruit varieties, economic change, local initiative "Paradise lost"? It has been known for generations that the climate of the lower Alpenrehien valleys in the Canton of Grisons (Switzerland) is good for arboriculture. This is also true for the villages in the Domleschg, part of the Hinterrhein valley, although they are situated 650 to 800 m above sea level. Their situation in the centre of the Alps provides them with a dry and sunny climate. The villages are surrounded by orchards of standard fruit trees which cover the ground completely. These orchards are widely appreciated as "jewels of the landscape". Unfortunately traditional arboriculture,her ea selsewher ei n Switzerland,i s showingsign so f decay.Th e main question asked by a group of geography students on seeing this land in 1985 was "Is there any hope for the orchards?" (Lötscher &Winkle r 1986). A long arboricultural tradition In the upper Rhine valleys arboriculture and wine-growing are traditional activities, as is shown in reports already from the 8th century. Initially it was aparticula r interest of the aristocrats. As early as the 17th century theDomlesch g was one of the valleys especially known for their considerable stock of fruit trees. Arboriculture was essential for the support of the family as an addition to the diet - somuc h so that the Klosterser Statut of the 16th century obliged newly married people to plant plum or other fruit trees (Bolli 1987). Some promoters of the liberal economy in the 18th century, influenced by the new ideas, tried to improve agricultural land use and especially arboriculture. As a result of this, common pasture was abolished and the private ownership of the land led to a considerable increase in the number of fruit trees,no t only in the orchards but over some 176 of the other fields. The promotion of arboriculture in the 19th century caused the standardization of the numberless local hybrids. The commercial aspects of arboriculture were strengthened asa resul to f improvedroad s and transportfacilities . Fruit-growing for private needs then became secondary to the glamour of a renowned fruit trade. This produced a division between production for market and production for home use. Unfavourable economic conditions The First World War caused the closure of the frontiers and put an end to the export of fruit. It also hit the hotel-industry which until then was a major inland consumer for the fruit of the Domleschg. The remaining inland trade was less remunerative. In the early thirties the commissioner for arboriculture and wine-growing of the Canton of Grisons said that there was a very high standard of fruit-growing in the main agricultural estates of theDomleschg .Durin gth eSecon dWorl dWa rthei r surplusproductio n was awelcom e addition to the food shortage. In the postwar period agriculture underwent deep structural changes, the cost of hand labour rose and as a consequence bush and pyramid trees replaced standard trees as the dominantproductiv e cultures.Bu t theplantatio n of thesetree srequire dhighe r investment as well as a new specialised knowledge and very intense maintenance. Therefore it was not taken up by most of the mixed farms. The result was that farmers who did not modernize their arboricultural practices also stoppedcultivatin g traditional standard trees as these were no longer competitive. In the sixties the office of the federal Alkoholverwaltung payed a fee for every fruit treecu tdown . By thismean sthe y hopedt oreduc eth eproductio n of alcohol from second rate fruit. Cutting down fruit trees also gave the farmers better access to the land. The orchards survived, but as small family farms in the villages were liquidated, people who knew how to look after the trees retired or died, and sufficient young trees were not planted. In 1973a ninventor y byremot e sensing showed 30percen t of "young"frui t trees in the area (Haller 1979),wherea s in 1985 it was between 20 and 25 percent in our test area. Strong but selective stubbing up of fruit trees When we carried out our investigations in 1985, the traditional arboriculture of the Domleschg valley was spoken of byloca lpeopl emerel y inhistorica l terms.I twa s looked upon as a kind of folklore rather than as a way of making a living and suitable only for elderly people or specialists in pomology. In fact there was a gap between the orchards people were proud of and the evident decline of arboriculture. In the ten years between thefedera l inquiries of 1951an d 1961th e numbero f standard fruit trees declined by nearly 15percen t in Switzerland and by nearly 27 percent in the Domleschg subdistrict. Evidence for the parish of Tomils (Fig. 1), which was chosen as the test area for our investigations, showed that in 1985 the overall number of standard trees haddiminishe d by 60percen t of the 1951level ;b ycomparison , appletree s hadonl y diminished by 48 percent. As the main species apple trees represent about 44 percent of all fruit trees: The apple had always been the favourite fruit, so that when speaking of arboriculture local people automatically think of apple-growing. An apple tree has also become the official symbol in the flags and arms of the subdistrict in the early fifties. Oldfrui t treeshav eno tbee nreplace di nth elas t3 0year s andth ecultivatio n -pruning , pestcontrol ,manurin g andharvestin g -ha sbee ndon einadequatly .Thi si s aneviden t sign 177 50 100 150 200 m Figure 1. Tumegl/Tomils is a fine example of a Domleschgian orchard around the villages. Each dot represents a standard fruit tree. In the area of detailed study within the orchards 45 percent of the trees were owned by people older than 65 years in 1989. (Map after VPV Tomils 1983 and Lötscher & Winkler 1986) of the reduced importance of the orchards to their owners and indicates the economic limits of traditional arboriculture. It also demonstrates the failure to transmit knowledge from one generation to another, as aresul t of theeconomi c and demographic changes of the sixties and seventies. Again a subject of general attention "Old trees - old owners" has been a stereotype heard by the interviewing students. It illustrated the decline of the orchards in a very suggestive way. It also marginalised arboriculture, with the effect that the subject was no longer discussed. If a land use is socially devaluated and people cease to discuss it, its decay becomes a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. Reports in the media of the actual situation of traditional arboriculture broke the silence. Discussion of ecological problems shed a new light on the subject: public discussion in the spring of 1987wa s thefirst opportunit y to express resignation or anger 178 at the developments of the last thirty years.I n some circles the question was asked how arboriculture could best bepromoted . Should it berevive d by improving theproduction! But who then should be encouraged: the numerous private owners of land and trees or the few farmers? Or should the consumptionb e revived by reminding people of the former reputation of the fruit of the Domleschg and by emphasizing rare varieties? Lacking storage facilities in the settlements There are strong correlations between production and consumption of standard tree fruit. They pertain to the problem of fruit storage. This needs a well controlled environment: 3°t o 5°C (37°t o41°F ) and arelativ e humidity of 90t o9 5percent .Thes econdition s exist in the naturally cool cellars whthout an extra expenditure of energy. The consumption of the perishable fruit is dependent on individual storage facilities. But better housing standards and changing technical equipment in the house has made it very difficult for most people to store fruit during the winter. To complement this, commercial cold storage houses have freed people from the necessity of preserving fruit. They are able to deliver fruit in small, ready-to-eat portions all the year round. There is however less variety and less flavour. A lack of storage facilities led to the diminution of family consumption of self- produced fruit. This could be an important obstacle to the revitalization of local arboriculture and the stepping up of the production. ' In ordert ocreat einterest , in 1987a ninquir y wascarrie d outo nexistin g naturally cool cellars in the Domleschg valley (Winkler 1988). 276 questionnaires were sent out, 102 (37percent ) werereturned. O n thebasi s of this inquiry weestimat e that there were about 64,000 cubic meters of individual naturally cool cellars. This represents the storage capacity of a cooling house of 72 by 72 meters and 2 meters high. But only about a fifth of this volume is actually in use. The other cellars, possibly some of the best, are not available because of difficulty of access for the heavy and bulky product. In other cases the installation of central heating has led to the warming up and drying out of the cellar. Apparently, part of the "fallow" of the orchards is tied to this "fallow" of the houses. The inquiry revealed that many house-owners who care for the storage qualities of their cellars care also for their fruit trees. Maintenance, harvesting and consumption are part of a logically and spatially specified cycle.Th e question of reextending the limits of this traditional land use cannot bereduce d to thepur e alternative of improving the production or of stimulating the consumption. A regional information campaign Media interest alone has revived private activity. This started in 1986 with a series of newspaper articles.B y spring 1987i twa snoticeabl e thatprunin g activities hadincreased . Inon eo fth evillage sprunin g instructionswer eeve norganized .Th einquir y onth ecellar s andth epublicatio n of theresults wer e taken asa n opportunity toinfor m people about the questions of harvest and storage. It also reminded people of the hidden reserves in their houses. By autumn 1988 the regional planning board organized the visit of an expert pomologist to identify the different varieties found locally. Some 130varietie s of apples were identified; this exceeded all expectations and was a fine testimonial to the genetic reserves of theDomlesch g arboriculture. Afe w weeks later an exhibition of the varieties was held and an example of a typical naturally cool cellar could be visited. 179 There was an excellent response to both initiatives. Traditional arboriculture cannot be saved by enthusiasm alone, but without a favourable public opinion this most decentralized and private production would not be taken up; in the postindustrial era non-economic aspects of a land use can become quite functional. Feeling responsibility The traditional arboriculture of the Domleschg valley in Grisons is an example of an economically but not socially obsolete land use. After a period of unconcern or resignation the public opinion has become friendly to it and family production of fruit is again considered as something which has social prestige and on which it is worth to spend some leisure time and labour. The standard fruit treei s becoming a symbol for the reference of man to his landscape. The standard fruit trees survive people physically and persist into new generations of technologies and changing economy. Otherjustification s than their rentability have to be found bythei r owners andusers . Some localpeopl e show attitudes best described aslan d use ethics, which include the feeling of responsibility for the environment. There is also the modest pleasure of dealing with the trees and thereby gaining a high quality of life. The orchards are considered as a heritage, they are a link to the past which creates an identity of place. In spite of all signs of decay these orchards are not an obsolete land use. There is hope for them. 180 INTO THE NINETIES - THE MANAGEMENT OF LAND FOR NATURE CONSERVATION IN THE RURAL ENVIRONMENT Haydn Williams Deputy Director (Wales), Nature Conservancy Council, Plas Penrhos, Ffordd Penrhos, Bangor, Gwynedd, UK Abstract The importance of nature conservationas a factor in land use in the rural sector is discussed,with particular reference to upland Wales. The effects of changes in UK Governmentand EECpolicies on agricultureand the likely consequencesfor therural population are identified.The role of thefarmer, andforester, as land managers is explored in relation to individual sites/farms and to the wider environment. The importance of the rural communityand ways in which conservationmanagement can promote its viability is discussed. Examples of ecologicalproblems - the spread of bracken and the decline of heatherare given.The Berwyn Case as a way to overcome conflict and promote co-operation betweenfarmer and conservationist is described. Conclusionsand recommendations for thefuture inWales andin a wider context are then suggested. Keywordsxountr ysid e management, farming management, land management. Introduction Nature conservation is increasingly becoming an important factor in the rural areas of Britain. The Nature Conservancy Council (NCC), the official government agency, has been given considerable powers in the Wildlife & Countryside Act, 1981 including the designation of Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI),agains t which therei sn oappeal . Table 1,belo w gives details of such land which is "... of special interest byreaso n of any of its flora, fauna orgeologica lorphysiographica lfeatures. " (Wildlife &Countrysid eAct , 1981). Table1 .Tota lSSS Inotifie d under 1981 Act by 31/3/1988 and totalSSS I at 31/3/1988 Total SSSI notified under Total SSSI at 31/3/1981 1981 Act by 31/3/1988 number (area/ha) number (area/ha) England 2,784 (436,933) 3,188 (675,870) Scotland 979 (600,168) 1,128 (722,973) Wales 635 (153,682) 680 (177,943) Great Britain 4,398 (1,190,183) 4,996 (1,576,786) Note: This table shows the number and extent of SSSI which the NCC has notified under the original legislation, section 23 of the National Parks and Access toth e Countryside Act of 1949o rsectio n2 8 of theWildlif e and Countryside Act, 1981. SSSI notified under the stronger protection ofth e latter act. Source: NCC, 14th Annual Report, 1988 181 Map 1. The Berwyn Mountains NCC Designated Land Source: Nature Conservancy Council Maps Office June 1989 3000261 182 The actual percentage of land so designated is: England 6.3 Scotland 9.8 Wales 9.8 Great Britain 7.9 SSSI range considerably in size from less than 1hectar e to more than 20,000 hectares, and the number of owners/occupiers affected by this designation is correspondingly varied. In Wales the numbers involved range from 1 - 146 per site. Nature conservation (together with landscape protection) was given a further boost by section 18 of the Agriculture Act 1986 which enables the UK government to designate Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs). This designation enables: a. the conservation and enhancement of the natural beauty of an area; b. the conservation of the flora andfaun a or geological orphysiographica l features of an area; or c. the protection of buildings or other objects of an archaeological, architectural or historic interest in an area. There are currently two ESAs so designated in Wales, which cover 9% of thé land area. This compares with c.2.5% for eacho f England, Scotland andNorther n Ireland and 3.1% for the UK. The ESA designation is still fairly new and its effectiveness has yet to be fully assessed. Recent concern bypolitician s andother so npollutio n issues,th egloba l warming effect and the weakening of theozon e layeri s alsoreflecte d inenvironmenta l issues in therura l sectorgenerally .Man yorganisation san dindividual s areconcerne dabou tth emanagemen t of land at atim ewhe nfarmers , themos tobviou s custodians of thecountryside , areunde r severepressure ,particularl y in thepoorer , upland areas of Western and Northern Britain. Theproblem s associated with landmanagemen t aredeveloped , below,usin g Wales asa n example. The Welsh Dimension Wales has an area of c.8,018 square miles (2,076,662 hectares) and apopulatio n of c.2.8 million (Census 1981). The greatest concentration of population is in the south of the country with a secondary area in the North East. Most of Central Wales is very sparsely populated with a density of less than 50 people/square mile over large areas. Unlike comparable areas ofEngland ,rura l Wales,especiall y theupland s over 800 feet (244 metres) above sea level, has considerable value for wildlife (and landscape). This is indicated by a lower intensity of agricultural use, something recognized by about 70% of the country being designated Less Favoured Area (LFA), in danger of depopulation, as defined in article 3(4) of the European Council Directive No 268/75/EEC of 28 April 1975 on Mountain and Hill Farming in certain Less Favoured Areas. The position in respect of ESAs has been given, above. Some 39%o f Wales has been designated for protection under some or other articleo f legislation. Table 2, gives details. Fanning in rural Wales directly supports a good quarter of the population compared with c.2% of the UK as a whole. The effect of such a large area of designated land is 183 significant particularly as Wales has a very high percentage of owner occupiers most of whom are small family businesses. Only 14% of farms are tenanted with the landlords usually being organisations such as Water authorities, Government Agencies like the Ministry of Defence or Charities such as The National Trust (NT).(Miles 1989) Table 2. Designationfo rprotectio nunde rsom eo flegislatio n Statutory designation Area/ha % of Wales National Park 409,800 20,0% Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty 83,260 4,0% Environmentally Sensitive Areas 192,750 9,4% SSSI 214,068 10,4% Totals 899,878 *39,0% The apparent total of 43.8% has toreduce d to 39%t o avoid double counting as some areas have more than one designation, e.g. SSSI in National Park. Hill farms in Wales are almost totally dependant on livestock systems particularly sheep and the absence of realisticfarming alternatives means that there is little likelihood of major change. It can be argued that alternatives, with the exception of forestry, are unlikely to have any major impact. However, the high proportion of designated land in Wales, the apparent reluctance of thefarmin g community toembrac eforestry , andth egrowin gimportanc e oftouris m offers an opportunity for collaboration between conservation agencies, such as NCC, and the rural community in countryside management. Changing Policies and their effect on the rural population In Wales, as in Britain generally, there are severe pressures on farmers. Due to the physical/climatic difficulties of the uplands the potential for change to economically viable alternative use is very limited, as argued above - i.e. the flexibility factor of marginal areas is severely restricted. The traditional pastoral sheep regime is under severe pressure, is heavily subsidised, and the increase in flock size over the years has led to land degradation by ecological overgrazing in someareas .Th epresenc eo f alarg eare ao f common land 188,254hectare s of Wales (9.2% of the land area), often poorly managed, adds to this. There are three policy issues which affect hill farmers directly. These are: a. Cereal Controls. Cereal Controls have been introduced by the E.C. to reduce the surpluses currently being produced which are providing an embarrassment in relation both to cost of subsidy and cost of storage. Although these do not actually apply in theLes sFavoure dAreas ,becaus eth eagricultura lindustr y of theU Ki swel l integrated and interactive these must be considered. The limited flexibility for diversification in the hills compared with the lowlands means that if the methods to control cereal supply cause a conversion to grassland in the lowlands, then the consequent build up of sheep and cattle would have a catastrophic effect on hill farmers. The profitability of existing hill sheep enterprises would be seriously reduced. There could be an over supply problem and consequent pressure to reduce surpluses. 184 b. HillLivestock CompensatoryAllowances (HLCAs).Althoug h these are really a social income support system they actually relate to sheep and cow numbers, subject to a maximum payment per hectare, but not per farm. This means, in practice that larger farmers are paid more than small farmers regardless of their similar income needs.I t can also lead to overgrazing by encouraging farmers to maintain excess stock in relation to the carrying capacity of the land to increase tr>eheadag e payment. One change proposed is to transfer HLCAs to the actual output, paying an enhanced variable premium. Another is to impose aceiling per farm on HLCA payments, or to introduce stepped payments designed to reduce payments to large and increase their small holdings. It is also possible to pay HLCAs on a labour unit basis instead of stock numbers. c. Environmental Policy. The extent of land designated for environmental protection in Wales has been referred to above. In practice such designations further reduce the options open to a farmer on his land. However if society wishes to maintain a good environment for wildlife and landscape then it must be prepared to pay. This is increasingly recognised and will be discussed below. Perhaps the time is coming when a total approach, i.e. 'countryside management' will be adopted rather than the more restricted 'farm management' directly related to production. The urban based majority has increasingly to understand the paramount importance of management even in areas that they misleadingly consider to be 'wilderness'. The concern of the farming community about the changes that areoccurring was expressed by Mr Simon Gourley, president of the National Farmers Union (NFU) at their annual meeting on 14/2/89 when he stated: "If the right way was not found, the structure of farming and the countryside would suffer. Even if the Government does not care about structure, I believe the whole nation is concerned about the countryside." Unremitting price pressure will leave us with small hobby farmers and bigranch-styl e operations, with nothing in the middle. We want to secure a future for the efficient full-time family farm ("The Daily Telegraph", 15Februar y 1987). Management of land for nature conservation too requires this. The need for management The management of land can be looked at in two dimensions, viz : a. in relation topolicy - i.e. at the national or countrywide scale b. in relation to mechanics- at the site scale - translating policy into action. Policy issues Perhaps the need for a land use strategy is more obvious now than it has been to politicians and special interest groups inth epast . Theimportanc eo f designations,backe d up by the law in some cases, can protect selected areas and the extent of such land is significant, particularly in Wales (Map 2). Although there appears to be little flexibility for farmers to change from a pastoral economy,forestr y mayb e anexception . Britain has77 %o fit slan ddevote d to agriculture 185 Map 2 The Berwyn Mountains Suggested Prescription for Land Use Map2 .Th eBerwy n Mountains:suggeste d prescription for landus e Source:'Th eBerwy nMountain sAre ao fWale sA nAppraisa lb yRG ALofthouse , 1/11/79;Natur e Conservancy Council MapsOffice . June 19893000260 . 186 which is ahighe rpercentag e than isfoun d in anyothe r major country for which statistics are available. However only 10% of its land is devoted to forestry (Ratcliffe and Thompson, 1988). The UK government for sometime ha s set atarge t of 33,000 hectares of new forestry per annum and in September/October 1988 launched a farm woodland scheme to plant an additional 12,000 hectares per year for three years. This would be concentrated on better agricultural land which had been taken out of farming because of cereal overproduction. The implications of these policies for conservation are considerable, particularly in relation to the ESA concept, discussed above. For some time the NCC and the Countryside Commission for England and Wales have been advocating the extension of the ESA principle to the whole farming and rural area- this is very much in line with the concept of "countryside management". Problems associated with the spread of bracken (Pteridium aquilinum) relate mainly to agriculture, nature conservation and health. It is estimated that c.5.7% of Wales is bracken dominated (118,000 hectares) and that the spread is estimated to be 3% of this figure per annum, i.e. c.3,500 hectares/annum. Bracken is usually found on better soils which would readily grow good timber in many places. Agriculturally it has little value andlan d reclaimed from bracken would take pressure off upland moorland and wetland which often have considerable wildlife and/landscape value. Bracken has some limited nature conservation value,particularl y for adiversit y of bird species. However it is so widespread and such a successful plant, that any control measures could be soplanne d to ensure that good stands remain for nature conservation. Generally it is more of a nuisance than an asset for wildlife. There is strong evidence to suggest that bracken is a carcinogen and that its control is desirable in relation to human and farm animal health. It has been suggested that society would benefit from control of this plant and that land so released could be put to better use (NCC et alia 1988). By contrast, heather (Calluna vulgaris) is regarded with great favour by conservationist,countrysid e useran dothers .I n September 1988th eInstitut eo f Terrestrial Ecology produced a report for the Department of the Environment on "The Distribution and Status of Heather in England and Wales". Concern about decline in heather moorland, the reverse situation to bracken, had been the stimulus for this study. The report made the following conclusions. 1. In Northern England heather is extensive but has suffered major losses in the last ten years. Management for grouse is important to retain healthy moorland. Overgrazing by sheep is a problem. 2. The main threat to the future of heather moorland is considered to be the present agricultural support system which has resulted in a reduction of labour, reduced shepherding, an increase in stock andreductio n in good management. Reform of this system is regarded as urgent. 3. Afforestation of moorland was a threat and could be again. Public access can conflict with moorland management for grouse. 4. Bracken spread can be a local problem. As aresul t of this report the NCC, as advisor on conservation to government, was asked byth eDepartmen t ofth eEnvironmen t (DoE)t oundertak e aHeathe rRegeneratio n project which would include a grant system to encourage farmers andothers to participate in it. 187 This study which is due to be submitted in June 1989 to DoE relates to the LFAs in England and Wales. In Wales it is estimated that there is an area of c.125,00 0hectare s hectares of heather. It is important torealise tha theathe r includes thewhol e shrub community where it is sub dominant, e.g. to Cotton Grass (Eriophorum vaginatum), Bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) or bracken (Pteridium aquilinum). These two examples of ecological problems demonstrate how policy can be linked to management in the wider countryside because the only way in which bracken can be controlled or heather increased is by involving the farming community and providing appropriate grant assistance. Translating Policy into Action Ultimately if a policy is to be effective it has to be translated into action. In a land management context it means that a land owner or occupier has to either: a. undertake an operation -positiv e management b. stop or refrain from an operation - negative management. The NCC is concerned that its SSSI are protected and in order that this can be guaranteed, as part of the notification process it must identify "... any operations appearing to the Council to be likely to damage..." the special interest of the site. Before carrying out any of the listed operations the owner or occupier has to inform theNC Cabou tth eintentio n tocarr yi tout ,i n writing.The n follows aproces s whichma y be complicated or simple depending on the specific case. If NCC cannot agree then a management agreement can be drawn up which may compensate the applicant "for net profit foregone". Such management agreements tend to be of a negative type. NCC can, however, encourage owners or occupiers to carry out measures to enhance conservation at a site as part of an operation and cometo a positive management agreement. By 31st March 1988 there were over 1,000 management agreements in operation, see Table 3 below. Table 3.Managemen t agreements in operation Country No. of Hectares under Cost of Agreements Agreement Agreements England 736 (473) 15,687 (9,437) £ 2.652,139 (£ 4.774,014) Scotland 204 (142) 19,652 (14,241) £ 1.599,589 (£ 986,873) Wales 113 (55) 3,108 (615) £ 303,611 (£ 156,803) Great Britain 1,053 (670) 38,447 (24,293) £ 4.555,339 (£ 5.899,690) The figures in brackets refer to the year 1986/87. Source: NCC, 14th Annual Report, 1988) Grants can be paid on an annual basis or as a lump sum depending on the wishes of the recipient and the circumstances of the individual case. In Britain inth eFinancia l Year 1987/88 82ne wagreement s wereconclude dwher eth e annual payment is £2,000 ormore ,o r where alum p sum payment of £2,000 ormor e has been made. There are, of course, many other cases which have been completed for smaller sums of money. 188 In the Financial Year most of the agreements listed are for a minimum of 3 years in England andWale s butrang e from 1-50 years, and 1-999 years in Scodand (the majority being around 25 years). Examples are given below: 1. 359 hectares of lowland grassland in Lancashire at £42,004 per annum for 21 years. 2. 12hectare s of woodland in the Scottish Borders Region - a lump sum of £37,500 and £100 per annum for 24 years. 3. 110 hectares of upland grassland/heathland in Wales, £2,758 per annum for 3 years. 4. 44 hectares also of upland grassland/heathland in Wales, £3,748 per annum for 3 years. Such figures can provide a welcome addition to the hard pressed farmer, particularly in theupland s and,increasingl y attitudeso fprimar yproducer s toconservatio n arechanging . Most of the agreements negotiated by the NCC are "one-off and specific to the site. There is a need for a standard system to reduce time in negotiation and pay grants quicker than at present. The Berwyn case, described below develops this idea further. Apart from the actual management grants land values too,ca n reflect the designation of land as SSSI. The following extract appeared in a recent newspaper article on SSSI: "Twice the agricultural value (i.e.£3,00 0pe r acre)fo r 8acre s of Grade 4pastur e entirely within an SSSI was paid at a recent sale in Devon. The successful purchaser competed with twoother s tomaintai n quaking grass,hair y sedge,lady' s mantle and 140othe rplan t species growing there". ("The Daily Telegraph" 11/3/89). The important of conservation in the rural environment and the need for management by farmers and others is being increasingly recognised. It is fair to say that conflict between farmer andconservationis t hasincreasingl y been convertedt oco-operation .Thi s is explored further in the Berwyn example, below. The Berwyn Case InOctobe r 1978th eNCC ,Roya lSociet y for theProtectio n of Birds (RSPB),Agricultura l and Forestry Departments had produced a report on an important upland area of the Berwyn Mountains of Wales. The study area covered 62,890 hectares, and it was considered that 47% of this qualified for designation as SSSI, 34% was plantable for forestry and 5.8% improvable for agriculture. These figures, however, did overlap so that there was potential conflict particularlyi nrelatio n toagricultur e andnatur econservation . (Williams &Hardin g 1982). The NCC has a statutory dutyt o designate land as SSSI if it has "... special interest by reason of its flora, fauna, or geological orphysiographica l features..". However the large extent of land involved caused great concern to officers of the official agriculture and forestry departments. Accordingly a highly respected retired Chief Surveyor of the Agricultural Advisory Development Service (ADAS), Mr.R.G.A. Lofthouse was asked to carry out an independent appraisal of the Berwyn study area. His report was produced in November of 1979 and divided the Berwyns into three classes on the basis of prescription - i.e. for agriculture, or forestry or nature conservation. Considerable reaction had now emerged from the local community, politicians and the media. In July 1980 a meeting took place in Aberystwyth between the official agencies responsible for the Berwyn study, representatives of the local community, the National 189 Farmers Union (NFU), Farmers' Union of Wales (FUW), Country Landowners Association (CLA)an dth eTimbe rGrower sOrganisatio n (TGO).T osa ytha tthi smeetin g was 'interesting', as one who attended, would be an understatement. Reaction toth epropose d scheduling of c.25,00 0hectare sb yth eNC Cwit h consequent restrictions on farmers was very strong. At that time the NCC was governed by earlier legislation and the Wildlife and Countryside Bill was going through Parliament. Suffice it to say that after considerable discussion the NCC agreed to consult widely, to restrict its SSSI to a smaller area, mainly the higher land less likely to be improved for agriculture, or to be planted and to have aperiphera l Consultation Zone on the lower surrounding land (see Map 1). In October 1980 the Berwyn Society (Cymdeithas y Berwyn) was formed to protect the interests of the local community against the perceived threat of the NCC. In December 1983th e NCC appointed aWels h speaking warden tocove r the Berwyn area- this being an important consideration to improve public relations. In December 1981 the Wildlife and Countryside Act became law and the NCC's duties,an dpowers ,wer e increased asa result . Since the appointment of awarde n in 1983 the Berwyn Society, of which NCC is now a member, having originally had observer status, is much more of an organisation that recognises the value of the area for conservation. The pressurés on agriculture affecting the incomes of farmers especially in the hills, the fact that NCC can provide money through management agreements and the efforts of the warden on the ground have converted conflict into co-operation. Apart from the warden NCC has also devoted part of the time of a science officer and all of the time of a Land Agent to the Berwyns. To date 30 management agreements arei n negotiation or have been completed. NCC has also purchased 3,900 hectares in the Berwyns so that it has a real estate stake in the area in addition. Management is carried out by local contractors and/or local farmers so that the co-operative element is increasingly developed with the community. Much has been done, much remains to be done, but the approach adopted may be apointe r for the future. The SSSI designated in February 1983 comprises 20,200 hectares and the surrounding Consultation Zone covers 4,899 hectares. ABerwy n Standard Management Payment hasals obee n devised to speedu p negotiations with land owners/occupiers and to facilitate the work of the NCC land agent. The Way Ahead Most of the population of Britain is urban dwelling in the Midlands and South East of England. There is a greater European consciousness in Britain and the economic importance of the S.E. of the country is causing an imbalance between the regions. The opening of the Channel Tunnel before the end of the century means that the more rural areas are becoming increasingly vulnerable. There is greater interest in all matters environmental, triggered perhaps, by concern over the effects of pollution. The alarmists, often derided, of two decades ago now have their prediction given serious attention. The urban dwelling population wants 'wilderness', and natural beauty in the remoter rural areas. Gradually the understanding of the need for management is spreading - who better to do this than the people who live and work in these areas? If the urban population must pay regard to the people who livein such areas, then so must the small minority who, some would say, have the good fortune to spend their lives there,pa y similar attention to the needs of the majority. After all the wealth that provides 190 subsidy comes from the urban commercial/industrial base. NCC and other agencies has been involved, increasingly since the advent of the 1981 Act with land management issues in rural areas. The Berwyn example may be a way ahead for some parts of Britain. Policy as debated and decided at the national level must be translated into practice at the individual family/farm level to be effective. The ideas developed in this paper may be one way ahead for areas similar to upland Wales, in other parts of Europe, and even further afield. 191 REFERENCES ALBERT! M. et al. 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Westview Press, Boulder, pp. 271-301. 201 fr WILLIAMS,HJ . and D.HARDIN G (1982),Toward s a land use strategy for theupland s of Wales,Th e Royal Forestry Society Journal, Vol. LXXVI, No.1, January 1982. WINKLER, J. (1987), Obstkellerinventar Domleschg, Ergebnisse der Eigentümerbefragung vom Herbst 1987. Basel/Tomils. WOLF,R . (Ed.) (1977),Organi cFarming :Yesterda y andTomorrow' s Agriculture,Rodal ePress ,Emmaus ,PA . WORLDCOMMISSIO NO NENVIRONMEN T ANDDEVELOPMEN T(1987) ,Ou rCommo nFuture , Oxford: Oxford University Press. WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION (1984), Mechanical processing of Soils and Air pollution, publication No 80, Geneva. WRONSKI, W. and J.G. TURNBALL (1984), The Toronto-centred region. Plan Canada. 24: 126-134. 202 r ABSTRACTSO FTH EOTHE RPAPER S LANDUS EO NTH EINTERSECTIO NO FNATURA LAN DSOCIA LPROCESSE S by L.F.M. van den Aarsen and M.J. van der Vlist, Department of Urban and Rural Planning, Agricultural University, Wageningen, The Netherlands. Agriculture, as an important type of rural landscape, implicates a combination of the characteristics of the natural environment and the social organisation, both specific for a given area. As a framework for the analysis of this area specific combination the concept "landsystem" is elaborated. Landsystems contain a complex of mutual related ecosystems. In general, an ecosystem is viewed as a system with a plural hierarchical organisation. Theplura l hierarchy consists of three dimensions: afunctional , a biotic and a spatial dimension. Between these dimensions a specific coherency exists. Agro- ecosystems more and morepla y a dominant role in the functioning of the landsystem as a whole. Important aspects are the spatio-temporal scale and the locality of the human activities within the natural and social environment. AGROFORESTRY: A NEW LAND USE DYNAMICS IN RURAL SYSTEMS by DeipicaBagchi .Associat eprofesso r ofGeography ,Souther nIllinoi sUniversity ,Edwards - ville, USA. The paper examines the relevance of AGROFORESTRY (AF) in stabilizing human- environmental quality of life. The interjection of AFi n rural systems by various nations of the developing world is viewed by the author as a process going full circle, back to the basics of agricultural land use of multiple use and sustained yield - practiced by ancient farming systems. The farm-forestry combination ensures sustained resource supplies for basichuma nneed s while stabilizing theenvironment .Th egoal s are futuristic, oriented toward "protection", "sustainability" and "equity" rather than mere production efficiencies and growth as has been characteristic of the outgoing century. The strategy calls for micro-focus, for decentralization and local choices rather than top-down and centralized policy planning. Also the perceived benefits of this resource development concept are ecological (long term), not economic (short term), to remain within the community instead of flowing out of the system. PLANNING OF RURAL AREAS WITH KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS by Rik Ewes and R. van Lammeren, Dept. of Physical Planning, Agricultural University Wageningen, the Netherlands Executing aplannin g proces by which ideas about the future organization of arura l area must be converted into plans is a complex exercise. This complexity increases by the limitations of time- and moneyspending durind the realization of such plans and the necessity to explain the various considerations and choices that have been made during the process. The latter in connection with policy-making, because the quality of explanation of the process gives an opportunity to discus and evaluate the plans on 203 reasonable and, maybe, more rational grounds. In this paper the complexity of a planning process will be analysed. Based on this analysis aconcep t of aknowledg e system will bediscussed . Simply stated, a system that must support the planner before, after or during the planning process. The paper ends with a discussion of the main problems in relation to developing such a system. A METHOD FOR CALCULATING INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS OF LAND USE PLANS USING GIS by Jan Groen. Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands The presentation deals with the problem of how to calculate the investment implications of land use plans. A prototype method combining GIS and spreadsheet techniques to make an instant investment calculation of these plans has been developed. The method calculates amounts and types of investment by subregion and was applied to the government's Fourth Memorandum on Physical Planning as a case study. The following themes will be adressed: a. Development of a GIS-basedmetho d tocalculat e financial consequences of urban and regional plans, b. Evaluation of the outcomes of the method for the rural areas in the Netherlands (accordingt oth eFourt hMemorandu m onPhysica lPlanning) ,c .A discussio n of the possibilities to extend this methodology. The project was a joint effort of the Faculty of Geographical Sciences of the University of Utrecht, and a independent foundation of architects andplanner s involved in developing scenarios for the urban and rural future. AREAL DEVELOPMENT OFLAN DUS E OFFINNIS H FARMS by MattiHäkkilä . Research Institute of Northern Finland, Kajaani, Finland In Finland agriculture and forestry have been closely connected so that persons who practise agriculture and forestry have been much the same.and most of the private forest area has belonged to farms. Along with structural change and technological progess, the agrarian density has declined rapidly, from 37 in 1950 to 10 in 1985. The agrarian densities increase sharply from south to north. Most of the yield from the arable land in Finland is concentrated in the southern part of the country. Nevertheless, agriculture and forestry are of relatively greater importance for the livelihood of the population in the northern part of the country. The small arable land areas of farms in northern Finland are partly compensated by great forest areas. Attempts are made to increase their profit by scaled measures of support. THE ROLE OF NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS IN SHAPING AGRO-RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA by M.A. Jarochowska. Université du Quebec à Montréal, Montréal, Canada The Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) are proliferating in India. They are of every size, organisation and ideological basis. Today they represent one of the most important bridges straddling over the gap between urban and rural societies of that country. As a socio-cultural force they are in dynamic relations with the Federal and States Governments sometimes passing from the ardent supporters to the vocal critics or 204 vice versa. Often used as véhicules for implementation of new agro-rural policies they alsocontribut e toth edeterminatio n ofne wGovernmenta l programs.Th eNGO s represent new form of democratic participation of a society in shaping the politico-economic and cultural future of India. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS AND ECONOMIC CHANGE IN RURAL FINNISH MUNICIPALITIES (TOWNS) IN 1980's by Harlev E. Johansen, Department of Geography, University of Idaho,U.S.A. , Arvo Naukkarinen and Taina Väre,Departmen t of Geography, University of Oulu, Finland Concentration of Finland's population into centers of different size has continued while sparsely populated areas have lost their population of working and child-bearing age. Development of municipalities has been mainly based on legally-bound public infrastructure developments which have now come to their end. The future of the rural municipalities may depend on the local creativeness and the efforts of local people and authorities to stimulate economic growth. The aim of the study is to learn the strategies by which rural municipalities will meet the future challenges. AKCI by Cliff R. Jürgens. Dept. of Landuse and Watermanagement, Agriculture University Wageningen, The Netherlands The computerprogram AKCI, completely menudriven, is an interactive fast and easy to use Geographic Information System that can be used in landmanagement schemes where infor-mation is needed in terms of 'who has what and where', as a means for landuse planning systems. The output is (vector)map & colour oriented. Zoom options make large/small andfull/detai l thematic output possible. Many themes can thusb ecreated , f.i. a map showing those parcels of land which are smaller than x hectares, not within a distance of y meters from the users farmhouse, the farmer belonging to the group dairyfarmers z. The Geographic Information System AKCI does not rely on vector overlay calculations, nor on matrix oriented modules. A built-in possibility to shield data from consultation, gives the possibility to discriminate users in groups with and without authorization to use particular data. INTRANET by Cliff R. Jürgens.Dept . of Landuse and Watermanagement, Agricultiral University Wageningen, The Netherlands The menudriven computerpackage INTRANET is a colour & graphic oriented fast Decision Support System with a number of programs which may be used by planners active in mutiple use of land situations. INTRANET can be used as a route planning system, but also as an infrastructure design system, having (graphic and nongraphic) editing modules by which existing layouts and (road) qualities may be changed. Certain labour allocation problems related to necessary travel and time available can be solved with INTRANET. INTRANET can be used for studies involving accessibility questions of the countryside, either in terms of more or better access needed or less where people are not wanted. INTRANET has modules making accessibility visual. By using the editing modules new infrastructure can be creatively conceived, road qualities altered, 205 influencing access and routing. Exercises with infrastructures comprising approx. 8000 addresses, 5000 nodes have been succesfull. LAND AND WATER MANAGEMENT AND QUALITY OF LIFE by A.P.C. Kerstens.Governmen t Service for land and water management, Utrecht, The Netherlands In the planningsystem of 'Land and Water Management' (L.W.M.) several criteria are built in to stimulate and guarantee 'quality of life'. A central question is: what do we empirically know about the relation between 'the planningsystem L.W.M. and 'Quality of life'? Two questions must be answered; what is the meaning of Q.L. and which types of sociological research are necessary and realized to understand the relation between L.W.M. and Q.L.? To answer the first question relevant points of view are 'balance of social interests', 'democraticparticipation' , 'functional quality' and 'environmentalquality' .T oanswe rth e second question several types of sociological research are considered. AGRICULTURE AND TOURISM IN ALPINE REGIONS by Hansluzi Kessler. Geogr. Inst. Universität Basel, Switserland This study examines how the impact of tourism on rural regions situated away from actual tourist centres causes a reorganisation of the areas. The examination particularly analyses the interaction of agriculture and tourism, which leads to an evolution from a purely monofunctional agrarian region to a multifunctional agricultural-touristic region. The study shows which influencing factors are of an exogenous and which of an endogenous nature, it indicates how an inherent differentiation intoproces s types can be found andi t reveals thereciproca l influence of agriculture and touristic factors. Both, the supply side and the demand side,receiv e equal attention, as also the regulatory effect of directive measures. In regard to the spatial overlapping of agricultural and touristic processes, spatial units with different combination types can be defined, which show typified restructurings of the landscape. With the combination-type-model, the study offers a variation and an extension to current models of spatial evolution in mountain regions with mixed agricultural-touristic utilisation. A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABILITY IN TWO FARMING SYSTEMS; DRY ARABLE FARMING VERSUS MIXED-GARDEN AGRO- FORESTRY IN UPLAND JAVA by Jan G.L. Palte. Utrecht, the Netherlands In the unirrigated upland areas of Java the increasingly unfavourable ratio of population to land results in a intensive permanent cultivation on the dry fields. Two different smallholderfarmin g systemsma yb edistinguishe d inthes euplands :permanen t dry arable farming and mixed-garden agroforestry. The arable farming is characterized by a low stagnant production of food crops, a low level of commercialization and severe erosion. As a result, the farm-households suffer from a chronical poverty. The mixed-garden agroforestry is characterized by the multi-storeyed interculture of annual and perennial crops.Thi styp eo ffarmin g appearst ob ebot hconservationa l andsufficientl y remunerate. 206 There are ample opportunities to sell surplusses of perennial crops. Apart from being highly sustainable, the mixed-garden agroforestry offers the basis for numerous non- agricultural activities, providing an additional income. ARURA LINFORMATIO N SYSTEMFO RA SMAL LDEVELOPIN G COUNTRY- BELIZE, CENTRAL AMERICA by Guv M. Robinson. University of Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom Although thedevelopmen t ofRura lInformatio n Systemsi ndevelopin g countries hasbee n limited by available capital and manpower, such systems are now being formulated. In Belize, Central America, such a system has been produced as part of a national agricultural censusprogra m involving both internal andexterna l funding. Theresul t isa n emerging database incorporating not only census data but also resource surveys, information on geology, soils and climate, and data from satellite remote sensing. This information is being used to analyse agricultural change, resource development and the monitoring of a range of economic and environmental policy issues. SUSTAINABILITY OF MAN ON EARTH by Jacek I. Romanowski, university of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada. The paper discusses landuse, land valuation and sustainability in a systems context. One of the measures relating the three concepts is productivity. This measure is, however, usually applied in anarrow , short term context. If usedi n amor e comprehensive manner ans related to the opportunity costs of various intensities of output, the measure of productivity can be very useful. Since land use,lan d value and sustainability are seen in an anthropocentric perspective, it is useful to relate the productivity measure to socio economic distribution of the products. Since productivity is a dynamic response to the functioning of the man-environment system, we need to consider development(improvement) and degradation as measures of productivity increase or decrease. Changes in the man-environment system such asth e development of synthetics or urbanization, change the values (scales) which measureproductivity . Efforts to protect farmland in the urban shadow are discussed in context of the above concepts. LEVELS OFRURALIT Y INU.P.JNDI A byV.R . Singh.Dep . ofGeography , Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India. The present paper seeks to identify the attributes which determine the nature and structure of rurality. For this purpose 23 indicators have been selected to show the contributions of population (5), agriculture (8) and services (10). Seventeen indicators show a positive correlation. The eigen values range from 0.95 to 6.86 and the first four factors have been calculated using the corresponding eigen values as weights. Thus, five levels of rural structures have been identified. In the first twocategorie s of very low and lowlevels , aredemarcate d by- 4an d -2values .Mediu m andhig hcategorie s rangefro m - 2 to +2 and +2 to +4 respectively. Very high level of rurality is demarcated by the composite index of more than +4. 207 DATA NEEDS AND DATA SYSTEMS FOR REGIONAL PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A COMPARISON OF EXPERIENCES IN KENYA AND SRI LANKA by Jan J. Sterkenburg. University of Utrecht, the Netherlands. Decentralized area planning in developing countries is increasingly receiving attention among scholars andpracticionizers .Th epresume d advantages ofthi styp eo fplannin gar e not fully realized yet, due to a lack of reliable planning relevant data. Attempts to establish database sfo rdistric tplannin gencounte ra numbe ro fproblems ,a sappear s from a comparison of experiences in Kenya and SriLanka .Th echaracteristic s of thedat a base in a district in each of these countries and the problems involved in establishing these database s are dealtwit h against thebackgroun d ofregiona l development policieso f both countries. CHANGES IN LAND USE AS A RESULT OF THE RESTRICTION OF MILK PRODUCTIONb yH.M.E .Thus .Governmen tServic efo rLan dan dWate r Management, Utrecht, The Netherlands To afford insight into the possible impacts of the restriction of milk production imposed by theEuropea n Community on land use a study has been carried out. The restriction of production, in combination with the expected rise in milk yield percow , will cause more and more dairy farms to be faced with a surplus of roughage in future. In 1988 some 120,000hectare s belonging todair y farms inth eNetherland s wereno t needed toproduc e roughage for the own dairy herd. In the year 2000 this will be some 285,000 hectares in thecas e of a20 %quot a reduction, and some365,00 0hectare s in thecas e of a 30%quot a reduction. There are several possible alternative ways of using this land, both within and outside dairy farming. Itha s been found thatmos t dairy farmers prefer tocontinu e using thelan d themselves. If farmland is sold because the total area of the farm is no longer needed for the production of roughage, this will probably happen in some specific areas in the Netherlands. ELDERLY IN RURAL AREAS IN THE NETHERLANDS: PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES byFran sThissen .Dep .o fHuma nGeography ,Fac .o f Environmental Sciences, University of Amsterdam. Theinteres ti n thelivin g situation of elderly inth eNetherland s isgrowing :th eproportio n of elderly is growing fast; characteristics of the elderly are changing rapidly; andpolicie s relevant to the elderly are recently changed. Regional and local policymakers in rural areas are confronted with problems of access and social isolation of elderly, but alsowit h the opportunities of different types of settlements in rural areas as attractive residential environment for elderly. It seems that problems and opportunities are connected with distinct types of settlements and these concern different categories of elderly. Growing social inequality between elderlyi nrura l areas anda selectiv edevelopmen t of settlements are consequences. In the paper the selective development of settlements in this respect to the living situation of elderly in rural areas are described. 208 ALLOCATING NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE RANDSTAD HOLLAND; RURAL LIMITS TO URBANLAN D USE byFre d J. Toppen.Facult y of Geograpical Sciences, Universty of Utrecht, The Netherlands The topic of the paper is the development of a GIS-application to provide a system for supporting locations decisions with respect to the implementation of an urban development strategy. The application serves as a tool to evaluate already proposed building sites and to select zones where additional residential areas may be projected on thebasi so f a given seto f goals andcriteria .Th e goals andcriteri a areextracte dfro m the fourth Memorandum onPhysica l Planning.Thi srepor t (1988),sketche s a broad planning perspective for urban and rural development for the Netherlands until 2015. The GIS- application is focused upon new urban developments within the rural areas of the Randstad Holland. Criteria which will be elaborated upon are the reinforcing of the role of public transport, and the preservation of valuable landscapes and areas. DIVERGING PERSPECTIVES ON RURAL LAND USE: THE CONFLICT BETWEENPRESERVATIO N ANDDEVELOPMEN T byWille m van Vuuren andP . Roy, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada. / Wetlands in southern Ontario arethreatene d by competition from urban development and agriculture. Using a case study, this paper examines the economics of wetland preservation in one of the most productive agricultural areas in Canada which is close to urban centres. Two kinds of analyses were performed, social and private cost-benefit analyses.Th e first one incorporates benefits and costs to society at large, while the latter one includes only benefits and costs to the owner of the wetland. There is a great discrepancy between private and social net benefits of wetland preservation. For the owner reclamation of wetlands for agricultural use yields a higher net value than preserving the wetland in its natural state, while for society at large the net benefits associated with preservation far outweigh those connected with agriculture. 209 LIST OFPARTICIPANT S AARSSEN, Ir. L.F.M. van den - VAKGROEP PLANOLOGIE GEN. FOULKESWEG 13, 6703 BJ WAGENINGEN the Netherlands BAGCHI, Mrs.Dr. Deipica - DEPT. OF EARTH SCIENCE BOX 1450, IL 62026 EDWARDSVILLE, ILLINOIS USA BERG, Dr. Leo M. van den - STARINGCENTRUM POSTBUS 125, 6700 AC WAGENINGEN the Netherlands BRYANT, Prof.Dr .Chri s - DEPARTEMENT DE GEOGRAPHIE UNIVERSITE DE MONTREAL, MONTREAL, QUEBEC H3C 3J7 Canada BUNCE, Dr. Michael F. - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY SCARBOROUGH CAMPUS, MIC 1A4 SCARBOROUGH, ONTARIO Canada CALMES, Dr. Roger - UER DE GEOGRAPHIE 16-07 LA GRANDE DELLE, 14200 HEROUVTLLE-ST.CLAIR France CLARK, Dr. Gordon - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY University of Lancaster, LAI 4YB LANCASTER United Kingdom DAM, Drs.Fran k van - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands ENYEDI, Dr. Gyorgy - HUNGARIAN AC. OF SCIENCES DERES-U10/D, 1124 BUDAPEST Hungary EWEG, Lr.Ri k - VAKGROEP PLANOLOGIE GEN. FOULKESWEG 13, 6703 BJ WAGENINGEN the Netherlands GINKEL, Prof.Dr. J.A. van - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 8, 3584 CS UTRECHT the Netherlands GROEN, Drs.Ja n -FACULT Y OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands GROENENDIJK, Dr. Jan - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands GROSSMAN, Prof.Dr. David - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY Bar-Ilan University, 52100 RAMAT-GAN Israel 211 HAKKILA, Dr. Matü - RES.INST.OF NORTH.FINLAND KAUPPAKATU 25 A, SF-87100KAJAAN I Finland HENDRDC,Drs . G.H.M. - INT. AGR. HOGESCHOOL VELP Kolkwegö, 7396 AH Terwolde the Netherlands HJEMSTRA, Ir. Klaas - STAFBUREAU STEDELIJK EN POSTBUS 5406, 2280 HK RIJSWIJK the Netherlands HOOF, Drs. Paul van - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands HUIGEN, Dr. Paulus P.P. - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands JAROCHOWSKA, Mrs.Dr. Marie Anne - 3843 MELROSE, H4A 2S3 MONTREAL/QUEBEC Canada JOHANSEN, Dr. Harley - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY University of Idaho, 83843 MOSCOW USA JONES, Dr. Gareth E. - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY University of Strathclyde, Gl 1XH GLASGOW United Kingdom/Scotland JÜRGENS, Ir. CR. - VAKGROEP CULTUURTECHNIEK NIEUWE KANAAL 11, 6709 PA WAGENINGEN the Netherlands JUSSILA, Dr. Heikki - RES.INST.OF NORTH.FINLAND LINNANMAA, 90570 OULU Finland KEMPERS, Dr. Annie H.H.M. - 'T KERKESTUK 23, 2811 BC REEUWIJK the Netherlands KERSTENS, Dr. Ir. A.P.C. - LANDINR.DIENST WESTRAVEN POSTBUS 20020, 3502 LA UTRECHT the Netherlands KESSLER, Dr. Hansluzi - GEOGRAPHISCHES INSTITUT KLINGELBERGSTRASSE 16, CH-4056 BASEL Switzerland KULKARNI, Prof.Dr. Gopal - IUP 2 LEONARD HALL, PA 15705 INDIANA USA LEWAN, Dr. Nils - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY University of Lund, S-223 62 LUND Sweden 212 LONSDALE, Dr. Richard E. -DEPARTMEN T OF GEOGRAPHY University of Nebraska, 68588-0135 LINCOLN, NEBRASKA USA LORENZETTI, Dr. Saverio - INST. DIECON. E POLIT. AGRARIA VIA ARTIGLIERI, 8, 37129 VERONA Italy LUCAS, Drs.Pete r - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands MAAS, Henk van der - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands MACURA, Dr. V. - FAC. OF FORESTRY KNEZA VISESLAVA 1, 11000 BEOGRAD Yugoslavia MAJORAL,ProfDr . Roser - DEPARTAMENTO DE GEOGRAFIA Mestre Nicolau, 21,3o . 6, 08021 Barcelona Spain MARKUSSE, Drs.Ja n - SOC.GEOGRAFISCH INSTITUUT JODENBREESTRAAT 23, 1011 NH AMSTERDAM the Netherlands MILANOVIC, Mrs.Natas a - FACULTY OF GEOGR.SCIENCES RATKA VUJOVICA-COCE4 , 11090 BEOGRAD Yugoslavia NAUKKARINEN, Dr. Arvo -DEPARTMEN T OF GEOGRAPHY LINNANMAA, 90570 OULU 57 Finland OORT, Drs. Guy M.R.A. van - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands PALTE, Drs. Jan - CORFUDREEF 83, 3662 SE UTRECHT the Netherlands PARRY, Mrs.Pegg y K. - 7 E. ROBINSON ROAD, CT 06067 ROCKY HILL USA PIERCE, Dr. John T. - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY Simon Fraser University, V5A 1S6 BURNABY, BRITISH COLUMBIA Canada RICKARD, Dr. Timothy J. - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY Connecticut State Univ., CT 06050 NEW BRITAIN USA ROBINSON, Dr. Guy - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY DRUMMOND STREET, EH8 9XP EDINBURGH United Kingdom/Scotland 213 ROMANOWSKI, Dr. Jacek - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY University of Manitoba, R3T 2N2 WINNIPEG, MAN. Canada SINGH, Dr. V.R. - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY Banaras Hindu University, 221 005 VARANASI India SOMMERS, Prof.Dr. Lawrence M. - ASST. PROVOST 422 ADMIN. BUILDING, MI 48823 E. LANSING USA STERKENBURG, Dr. Jan -FACULT Y OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands TAKAHASHI, Prof.Dr. Akira - FACULTY OF ECONOMICS HONGO, BUNKYO-KU, TOKYO 113 Japan THUS, Mrs.Drs. Lenie H.M.E. - LANDINR.DIENST WESTRAVEN 'T HAGEKRUIS 39, 6026 BB MAARHEEZE the Netherlands THISSEN, Drs.Fran s - SOC.GEOGRAFISCH INSTITUUT JODENBREESTRAAT 23, 1011 NH AMSTERDAM the Netherlands TINER, Dr. Tibor - GEOGR. RESEARCH INSTITUTE NEPKOZTARTSASAG UTJA 62, H-1062 BUDAPEST VI Hungary TOPPEN, Drs.Fre d J. - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands TROUGHTON, Prof.Dr. Michael - DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY University of W. Ontario, N6A 5C2 LONDON, ONTARIO Canada VAART, Drs.J.H.P . - FRYSKE AKADEMY DOELESTRAAT 8, 8911 DX LEEUWARDEN the Netherlands VOLKERS, Drs. Cees R. - FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES HEIDELBERGLAAN 2, 3508 TC UTRECHT the Netherlands VUUREN, Dr. Willem van - DEPT. OF AGR. ECON. AND B University Of Guelph, NIG 2W1GUELPH/ONTARI O Canada WILLIAMS, Mr. Haydn J. - NATURE CONSERVANCY PLAS PENRHOS/FFORDD PENRH, LL57 2LQ GWYNEDD United Kingdom/Wales WINKLER, Dr. Justin - GEOGRAPHISCHES INSTITUT MARIGNANOSTRASSE 72, CH-4059 BASEL Switzerland 214 INDEX Abandonment 98 Environmental Sociology 146 Accessibility 48,50 Extensiftcation 99 Adaptation strategies 80 External capital 24 Administrative structure 156 Extra-urban 38 Agribusiness 143 Fallow (orchards) 179 Agricultural board (Landbouwschap) 100 Family farm 32 Agricultural consultants 25 Farm management 185 Agricultural land 130 Farm management companies 25 Agricultural land policy 119 Farm manager 24 Agricultural market value 98 Farm strategies 35 Agricultural policy community 159 Farmer diversification 84 Agricultural Statistics 132 Farming community 184, 188 Agricultural systems 141 Farmland preservation 118 Agricultural technology 44 Farmsteads 123 Agricultural tradition 80 Finland 50,204 Agriculture and tourism 206 'Follow the market' philosophy 42,58 Agro-ecosystem 165 Food sufficiency 10 Agro-technology 142 Foreman-type manager 30 Agroforestry 203, 206 Forestry 204 Alternative agriculture 149 Formation 74 Arboricultural tradition 176 Friesland 63, 124 Articulation of goals 13 Fringe municipalities 115 Canada 19 114, 142 Fringe settlements 107 Commercial farmer 130 Fruit (trees) 80, 176 Communication network 56 Geographic Information System (GIS) 204, 205 Community interest 9 GIS-application 209 Comparative advantages 63 Glasgow 89 Concentration tendencies 42 Goal programming 18 Connecticut 79 Green belt 89 Consultant-type managers 30 Hidden suburbanisation 123 Conversion 123 Hidden urbanization 133 Converted farmsteads 126 Hobby farmer 131 Cooperation 33 Hobby farming 127 Countryside management 184 Holding size 34 Data bases 208 Hungary 58 De-mixing of functions 44 Implementation 158 Decision Support System 205 Industrial agriculture 152 Depopulation 174 Information based industry 54 Development potentia 148, 51 Information network 58 Direct marketing 79, 103 Information oriented society 56 Disagrarization 174 Information space 55 Ecological assessment 142 Innovation development 49 Ecological Evaluation 94 Institutional land purchasing 25 Ecological sustainability 141 Integrated resource assessment 16 Ecological upgrading 95 Jobless society 74 Economic cycle 63 Kibbutz 33 Economic development 42 Knowledge system 204 Economic growth path 65 Land agents 25 Economic restructuration 63 Land conversion 97 Education level 50 Land degradation 173 Elderly (the) 208 Land management 183 Employment 40 Land resource assessment 16 Environmental Impact Analysis 145 Land resource conversion 21 Environmental Impact Assessment 93, 163 Land use 97, 105, 170 176, 208 Environmental policy 158 Land use assessment 16 215 Land use change 17, 119 Regional policy 56 Land use conflicts 21 Relocation 98 Land use planning 11, 114 Resource planning 16 Land Use Statistics 132 Restriction of milk production 208 Land-use designation 114 Roughage 208 Land-use pattern 67 Rural areas 38 Land-use types 68 Rural communities 9 Landscape Assessment technique 92 Rural community 184 Landsystem 203 Rural Information Systems 207 Level of rurality 207 Rural land 113 Levels of rurality 207 Rural land use 209 Limits to agriculture 157 Rural municipalities 160, 205 Limits to rural land use development 9 Rural resource management 114 Limits to urban land use 209 Rural-urban boundaries 121 Local planning 114 Rural-urban fringe 96 Local resources 13 Rural-urban relationship 121 Locational inertia 86 Realization of manufacturing 42 Man-environment 156, 207 Scenario 95 Management agreement 188 Scenario approach 64 Matrix method 164 Scenarios 17 Metropolitan regions 113 Security of tenure 25 Migration leak 47 Self-sufficiency 10 Modern agriculture 141 Service sector 51 Moshav 32 Settlement ' 105 Multi-goal 17 Settlement pattern 48 Multi-sector land resource use assessment 17 Settlement system 32 Municipal zoning controls 113 Settlement type 106 Nature Conservancy Council 181 Small holder 35 Net migration balance 40 Soil erosion 22 Netherlands, the 38, 96, 131 Specialization 44 Non-Governmental Organisations 204 Sustainability 206, 207 Noordoostpolder 46 Sustainable development 10 Open cast mining 91 Sustainable rural communities 11 Orchards 177 Switzerland 176 Organic farming 152 Techno-economic trend 65 Part-time farming 36, 103 Technological innovations 63 Peace River Region 19 Telecommunication 57 Peri-urban areas 38 Telematics 44,57 Peri-urban farming 35 Toronto 114 Peripheral rural areas 39 Urban agglomerations 38 Pick-your-own 80 Urban containment 118 Planning policy 124 Urban expansion 96 Planning process 204 Urban fringe 116 Plot size 32 Urban fringe area 79 Political ecology 146 Urban fringe municipalities 11 Population trend 40 Utrecht (agglomeration) 96 Quasi-agricultural land 131 Vegetable 80 Regional authorities 64 Wales 183 Regional development 50 Wetland 21 Regional development policies 63 Wetland preservation 209 Regional economy 63 Wildlife & Countryside Act 181 Regional inequality 57 Yugoslavia 105 216