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Section 18.0 – Socio-Economic Impact Assessment Table of Contents

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Section 18.0 – Socio-Economic Impact Assessment Table of Contents Suncor Energy Inc. Lewis In Situ Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment February 2018 SECTION 18.0 – SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 18.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT ...........................................................18 -1 18.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................18 -1 18.2 Study Area ......................................................................................................18 -1 18.2.1 Temporal Boundary ..........................................................................18 -1 18.2.2 Spatial Boundary ..............................................................................18 -1 18.3 Assessment Approach ....................................................................................18 -3 18.3.1 Regulatory Framework .....................................................................18 -3 18.3.2 Socio-economic Issues Identification ................................................18 -3 18.3.3 Valued Socio-Economic Components and Key Indicators ................ 18-3 18.3.4 Assessment Cases ...........................................................................18 -4 18.3.5 Assessment Criteria .........................................................................18 -5 18.3.6 Constraints Planning ........................................................................18 -6 18.4 Methods ..........................................................................................................18 -6 18.4.1 Baseline Data Collection ..................................................................18 -6 18.4.2 Modelling .......................................................................................... 18-6 18.4.3 Economic Effects Analysis ...............................................................18 -7 18.4.4 Social Effects Analysis .....................................................................18 -8 18.4.5 Planned Development Effects Analysis Methods ..............................18 -8 18.5 Baseline Case ................................................................................................. 18-9 18.5.1 Overview of Alberta Oil Sands ..........................................................18 -9 18.5.2 Oil Sands Initiatives ........................................................................18 -11 18.5.3 Alberta Oil Sands Projected Investment 2015 to 2035 .................... 18-24 18.5.4 Economic Conditions ......................................................................18 -25 18.5.5 Population ......................................................................................18 -34 18.5.6 Housing ..........................................................................................18 -41 18.5.7 Utilities ...........................................................................................18 -43 18.5.8 Education .......................................................................................18 -46 18.5.9 Health .............................................................................................18 -48 18.5.10 Recreation and Leisure Facilities .................................................... 18-49 18.5.11 Social Services ...............................................................................18 -50 18.5.12 Protective Services .........................................................................18 -51 18.5.13 Traffic and Transportation ..............................................................18 -53 18.5.14 The Horse River Fire and Socio-economic Conditions .................... 18-55 Table of Contents – Page i Suncor Energy Inc. Lewis In Situ Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment February 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 18.6 Application Case ...........................................................................................18 -66 18.6.1 Lewis Project Description ...............................................................18 -66 18.6.2 Mitigation ........................................................................................18 -68 18.6.3 Effects on the Economy ..................................................................18 -69 18.6.4 Population Effects ..........................................................................18 -78 18.6.5 Effects on Housing Services ...........................................................18 -80 18.6.6 Effects on Utility Services ...............................................................18 -81 18.6.7 Effects on Education Services ........................................................ 18-82 18.6.8 Effects on Health Services .............................................................18 -83 18.6.9 Effects on Recreation and Leisure Services ................................... 18-84 18.6.10 Effects on Social Services ..............................................................18 -84 18.6.11 Effects on Protective Services ........................................................ 18-85 18.6.12 Effects on Traffic and Transportation .............................................. 18-87 18.6.13 Effects on the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Wildfire Recovery Plan ................................................................................18 -88 18.7 Planned Development Case .........................................................................18 -88 18.7.1 Effects on Economy .......................................................................18 -89 18.7.2 Effects on Traffic and Transportation .............................................. 18-90 18.7.3 Effects on Health Services .............................................................18 -90 18.8 Monitoring .....................................................................................................18 -90 18.9 Summary ......................................................................................................18 -92 18.10 References ...................................................................................................18 -93 Table of Contents – Page ii Suncor Energy Inc. Lewis In Situ Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment February 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE LIST OF TABLES Table 18.3-1: Valued Socio-Economic Components and Indicators....................................18 -4 Table 18.3-2: Social and Economic Effect Attribute Definitions ...........................................18 -5 Table 18.5-1: Phases of the Athabasca Oil Sands Area Comprehensive Regional Infrastructure Sustainability Plans ...............................................................18 -15 Table 18.5-2: Phase I: Highlights of Infrastructure Improvements ..................................... 18-16 Table 18.5-3: Phase II: Highlights of Infrastructure Improvements .................................... 18-16 Table 18.5-4: Phase III: Highlights of Infrastructure Improvements ................................... 18-17 Table 18.5-5: Phase IV: Highlights of Infrastructure Improvements .................................. 18-17 Table 18.5-6: Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Oil Sands Initiatives, Objectives and Projects/Actions ...................................................................................18 -19 Table 18.5-7: Socio-economic Profile of the Socio-economic Study Area ......................... 18-26 Table 18.5-8: Value of Major Projects by Sector in the Socio-economic Study Area (Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo) as of April 2017 ............................ 18-27 Table 18.5-9: Inventory of Major Oil and Gas and Pipeline Projects in the Socio- economic Study Area (Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo) as of April 2017 ...........................................................................................................18 -28 Table 18.5-10: Labour Force Indicators in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta and Canada (2011) .........................................................................18 -29 Table 18.5-11: Labour Force by Industry in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Fort McKay and Alberta (2011) ................................................................... 18-30 Table 18.5-12: Economic Indicators for the Aboriginal Population in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and Alberta (2011) ........................................ 18-31 Table 18.5-13: Permanent and Shadow Population Counts in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo 2015 .................................................................................18 -36 Table 18.5-14: Population Count in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (Municipal Census 2015) ............................................................................18 -36 Table 18.5-15: Permanent and Shadow Population by Rural Community 2012 and 2015 .. 18-37 Table 18.5-16: Profile of First Nations Communities in the Socio-economic Study Area ..... 18-38 Table 18.5-17: Fort McMurray First Nation #468 Reserves ................................................ 18-39 Table 18.5-18: Fort McKay First Nation Reserves ..............................................................18 -39 Table 18.5-19: Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation .............................................................18 -39 Table 18.5-20: Mikisew Cree First Nation ...........................................................................18 -40 Table 18.5-21: Chipewyan Prairie Dené First Nation .......................................................... 18-41 Table 18.5-22: Dwelling Counts
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