2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 1 the Greater Oklahoma City Economic Forecast Provides a Comprehensive Analysis of the National, State and Metro Economies

GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMIC FORECAST OKLAHOMA CITY METRO 2021

TABLE OF CONTENTS Overview...... 2 Introduction...... ……………………………………………………………………4 The U.S. Economic Outlook …………………………………………………...... 8 The Oklahoma Economic Outlook ……………………………………………...... 12 The Oklahoma City MSA Economic Outlook...... …………………………………18 Conclusion, Announcements and Retail Successes...... 28 Appendix: Detailed Forecast Tables …………………………………………...... 31

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Oklahoma GDP and Personal Income...... 4 Figure 2: 2nd Quarter Percent Change: GDP and Personal Income...... 5 Figure 3: CARES Act Contributions to Personal Income...... 6 Figure 4: Oklahoma Energy Index...... 7 Figure 5: U.S. Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures...... 8 Figure 6: U.S. Nonfarm Employment...... 9 Figure 7: U.S. Inflation and Interest Rates...... 11 Figure 8: Oklahoma Emloyment Pre-Pandemic...... 12 Figure 9: Oklahoma GDP and Personal Income...... 13 Figure 10: Oklahoma Real GDP and Personal Income...... 14 Figure 11: Oklahoma Population and Per Capita Income...... 15 Figure 12: Oklahoma Nonfarm and Private Employment...... 16 Figure 13: Oklahoma Goods and Services Employment Growth...... 17 Figure 14: Oklahoma City MSA Income and GDP...... 18 Figure 15: Oklahoma City MSA Per Capita Personal Income...... 19 Figure 16: Oklahoma City MSA Population...... 19 Figure 17: Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment...... 20 Figure 18: Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment...... 21 Figure 19: Oklahoma City MSA Services Sector Employment...... 21 Figure 20: Crude Oil Production (OK and US) …………………………………………………………...... 22 Figure 21: Baker Hughes Active Rig Count...... 22 Figure 22: Oklahoma City MSA Oil and Gas Employment...... 23 Figure 23: Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment...... 24 Figure 24: Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment...... 25 Figure 25: Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Servics Employment...... 26 Prepared by Russell R. Evans, Ph.D. Eric Long Associate Professor of Economics Research Economist Executive Director, Steven C. Agee Economic Research and Policy Institute Economic Development Division Meinders School of Business, Oklahoma City University Greater Oklahoma City Chamber 405-297-8976 [email protected]

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 1 The Greater Oklahoma City Economic Forecast provides a comprehensive analysis of the national, state and metro economies. It OVERVIEW details historic trends, a snapshot of the current situation, as well as a forecast for 2021.

In 2021, the Oklahoma City metro should benefit from UNEMPLOYMENT RATES REMAIN LOW improved economic conditions as the nation gradually AFTER SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATION exits the pandemic economic reality and the bottom to the current energy cycle. This should set the stage The Oklahoma City metro finished 2020 with an for a return to more traditional growth in 2022 as the unemployment rate of 4.8% and a yearly average of Oklahoma City region builds upon pre-pandemic levels approximately 6.5%. Monthly unemployment rates ranged of economic activity. Overall in as low as 2.7% (March) and as 2020, year-over-year nonfarm high as 14.8% (April). In March, annual job growth declined by heading into the pandemic, the 3% or shed 19,700 jobs in the Oklahoma City MSA had the Oklahoma City MSA. The largest lowest unemployment rate among percentage year-over-year job all large metros in the nation gains were found in transport/ and the lowest unemployment warehouse/utilities (+3.2%), retail rate again in September. trade (+2.9%), health services Oklahoma City finished out the (+2.4%), financial services year ranked among the lowest (+0.7%) and scientific services 10 unemployment rates for large (+0.5%). metros (more than 1 million in population). Throughout the year, The largest declines were rankings fluctuated from No. found in oil and gas (-30.7%), 1 (March) to No. 34 (April). wholesale trade (-9.9%), Unemployment rates in the final information (-9.0%), leisure five months of the year closely services (-8.5%), food services paralleled what the metro and administration (-6.2%), saw coming out of the 2009 administrative support (-6.1%) recession. and manufacturing (-6.0%). VALUE OF Positive Oklahoma City metro job growth in 2021 is expected, CONSTRUCTION with the more optimistic job PROJECTS forecast scenario growing by According to Dodge, in 2020 the 3.2% or approximately 20,500 total construction value of tracked jobs by the end of 2021. This contract projects (residential, growth parallels expectations for non-residential and non-building the nation. An alternative model infrastructure) in the Oklahoma shows a more pessimistic start to City MSA was $3.5 billion. That 2021 with the Oklahoma City was 6% less than the prior year. MSA job growing at 1.5% or just The largest positive year-over- under 10,000 jobs added by the year percentage gains were end of the fourth quarter – and found in the hotels and motels, hospitals and other health overall jobs total still below 2019 levels. The local economy treatment and religious buildings categories. The largest remains vulnerable to national and global uncertainties year-over-year construction value declines were in the surrounding COVID-19 that may cause a delay in office and bank, government service and miscellaneous improved economic conditions. non-residential buildings categories. For 2021, the total 2 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST construction value of contract projects is forecasted by Since 2016, 23,914 jobs with payroll in excess of $1.2 Dodge to be relatively flat and decline by 3% with small, billion and $2.2 billion in capital investment has been positive gains in both non-residential and residential. A announced by Chamber-assisted companies. large 21% decline is expected in non-building (bridges, water supply systems and other). This non-building As part of that program, overall metrics are tracked for category is what is expected to bring total construction Chamber-assisted companies in several different areas: value into negative territory year-over-year. new startup companies assisted, job growth from existing companies as well as new to market firms, wages, capital As described in the methodology (page 30), the Greater investment and growth in the tax base. In 2020, 49 Oklahoma City outlook and forecast for construction Chamber-assisted companies announced plans for the employment is entirely determined by the past information creation of 3,866 jobs with an annual average salary of contained in the dataset and the econometric specification $54,983. In addition, those same companies announced of the models. So, forecasted construction contract detail or more than $307 million in capital investment and $212 proposed infrastructure investment is not incorporated into million in payroll. the baseline forecast for employment. The Greater Oklahoma City Chamber ended 2020 JOB GROWTH with 58 active projects in its economic development pipeline. The pipeline tracks companies or projects that are 2020 brought about the end of a five-year economic potentially looking to relocate or expand in the Greater development program called Forward Oklahoma City V. Oklahoma City region. The largest number of projects by This is the fifth iteration of the Forward campaign that has facility type included manufacturing, office, distribution, provided longer-term strategic planning to the region’s aviation and shared-services/call center. economic development initiatives over the past 25 years.

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 3 The ability of the Oklahoma economy to withstand 2020 may well depend on the ability of the U.S. INTRODUCTION economy to extend its record-breaking expansion one more year. - 2020 Greater Oklahoma City Forecast

A year ago, as the 2020 outlook was being produced, production. The result was a perplexing mix of a collapse Oklahoma’s economic activity was already stressed. A in production and a spike in personal income (see figure severe and ongoing oil and gas contraction had already below). spilled over into the other goods-producing sectors (construction and manufacturing) and was constraining the The Oklahoma economy moved squarely into recession in pace of growth in the services sector. At the time, the novel the first quarter of 2020. It is worth noting again, that this coronavirus was still a foreign affair with the hope that, like move was largely foreseen and the result of the preceding previous coronavirus outbreaks, the COVID-19 pandemic energy contraction. The coronavirus pandemic was a would remain regional rather than global. Oklahoma’s contributing rather than a leading factor. By the second economic hopes hinged on the balance of outside forces quarter, however, the relative weight of the contributing being strong enough to offset the internal weakness. elements had flipped. The coronavirus and accompanying economic shutdowns led GDP in the second quarter to Were Oklahoma’s hopes realized? Yes and no.Personal Concerns income contract at an annualized rate of 31.1%. This collapse of the energy bust quicklyReal yielded GDP, to the reality(millions of a of dollars,in productionPer capitaremoved personal access to income for the many global pandemic. In an attemptChained to 2012stall the $ paceseasonally of virus adjusted)workers removedincome (dollars)from productive 2/ activity. To replace transmission, while the healthOK_RGDP care system developedOK_PI this lost income,OK_PCPI federal policy delivered a combination Annualized Percent Change the processes 2019:Q1to handle the coming198134.5 storm, economic 186866.4of direct economic impact payments,47296 Real forgivable GDP Personal Income Per Capita Income activity was severely2019:Q2 restricted. The 197739.2result was a collapse 186543.7paycheck protection program47170 loans and an expanded -0.8% -0.7% -1.1% in measured economic2019:Q3 activity as communities198518.9 sheltered 187709.4unemployment insurance program47406 with a weekly 1.6% 2.5% 2.0% in place to stay2019:Q4 safer at home. At the197208.9 same time, federal 188190.4supplement. The combined result47471 was a second-quarter-2.6% 1.0% 0.5% and local programs2020:Q1 pumped trillions193501.4 of dollars of transfers 189373.6spike in personal income of more47728 than 47%. -7.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2020:Q2 176264.4 208784.4 52568 -31.1% 47.7% 47.2% into the system2020:Q3 to replace the lost income186075.7 from foregone 195168.1 49078 24.2% -23.6% -24.0%

Oklahoma GDP and Personal Income 60.0% 50.0% 47.2% 40.0%

30.0% 24.2% 20.0% 10.0% 1.6% 2.0% 0.5% 2.2% 0.0% -0.8% -1.1% -10.0% -2.6% -7.3%

Percent Change, Annual Rate Annual Change, Percent -20.0% -30.0% -24.0% -31.1% -40.0% 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3

Real GDP Personal Income Per Capita Income Figure 1: Oklahoma GDP and Personal Income

4 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 2020 Q1-2020 Q2 2020 Q1-2020 Q2 State % Change, PI, Annual Rate % Change, GDP, Annual Rate Divergence Oklahoma 47.1 -31.1 1.514469 New Mexico 40.2 -28.3 1.420495 Texas 34.1 -29 1.175862 Missouri 31.4 -32.1 0.978193 Colorado 26.4 -28.1 0.939502 Wyoming 28.2 -32.5 0.867692 Oklahoma was not alone in this second quarterKansas experience. But the gap between25.3 personal income gains and-30.3 GDP 0.834983 losses was larger in Oklahoma than in surroundingNebraska states. The experience in 23.8New Mexico was similar, suggesting-31.0 some 0.767742 of the energy industry weakness unrelated to the pandemic was swept up in the pandemic policy response.

2nd Quarter Percent Change: GDP and Personal Income

55 47.1 40.2 34.1 31.4 35 28.2 26.4 25.3 23.8

-5

-25

Percent Change, Annualized -28.3 -28.1 -31.1 -29.0 -32.1 -32.5 -30.3 -31.0 -45 Oklahoma New Mexico Texas Missouri Colorado Wyoming Kansas Nebraska

Personal Income State GDP Figure 2: 2nd Quarter Percent Change: GDP and Personal Income

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 5 Colorado Kansas Missouri Nebraska New Mexico Oklahoma Wyoming US 7-State Sha 2,785,600 1,423,000 2,901,600 1,027,100 856,900 1,703,400 289,600 150,939,000 7.3%

$ Millions UI 11568.4 3572.2 6070.7 1230.3 2284.3 7072.4 753.5 816000 4.0% EIP 18396The 9851 initial round 21465of coronavirus 6707relief consisted 7106primarily of an 13459 expanded unemployment 2034 insurance 1078100program (coverage, 7.3% duration and federal supplements), direct economic impact payments and forgivable paycheck protection loans. To PPP Loans 4779.9 2030.6 3867 1097 911.7 3024.4 436.8 209100 7.7% allow for comparison across states, the federal flow of dollars through each of these programs was divided by the level of nonfarm employment in 2019. The figure below underscores the generosity of each of these programs in Oklahoma. The federal flow of income support through the expanded unemployment insurance program was more than $4,000 1000000 Per Worker Colorado Oklahomaper worker.New Direct Mexico economicWyoming impact Kansaspayments and PPPMissouri loans contributedNebraska nearlyTexas $8,000 and $2,000 per worker, UI $ 4,152.93 4,151.93$ respectively. 2,665.77$ The combined 2,601.86$ effect was$ a 47% 2,510.33 spike in personal 2,092.19$ income 1,197.84$ amid the recession. 4,604.95$ A complicating factor in the EIP $ 6,603.96 7,901.26$ outlook for 2021 8,292.68$ is the unknown 7,023.48$ future$ policy 6,922.70 response. 7,397.64$ The recently passed 6,530.04$ $900 7,088.81$ billion economic relief package is PPP Loans $ 1,715.93 1,775.51$ expected to 1,063.95$ be followed by 1,508.29$ another large$ 1,426.99 policy response 1,332.71$ as the new 1,068.06$ administration 1,876.01$ prioritizes economic relief.

CARES Act Contributions to Personal Income $9,000.00

$8,000.00

$7,000.00 (Mil) Texas 12,801,300.00 UI 58949.4 4,604.95 $6,000.00 EIP 90746 7,088.81 $5,000.00 PPP 24015.4 1,876.01 $4,000.00

$3,000.00

$2,000.00

$1,000.00

$- Colorado Oklahoma New Mexico Wyoming Kansas Missouri Nebraska Texas

UI EIP PPP Loans Figure 3: CARES Act Contributions to Personal Income (UI=Unemployment Insurance, EIP=Economic Impact Payment or Stimulus, PPP=SBA Paycheck Protection Program)

6 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST The aggressive fiscal policy response makes this energy cycle experience very different for Oklahoma. Normally, an energy contraction associated with building crude inventories and falling prices stifles the state economy while offering a minor boost to the national economy. As a result, no federal policy support is generally available. We are usually left to deal with our energy cycle on our own. In contrast, this cycle was swallowed up in the pandemic response. It would be wrong to conclude that the state’s economy is sufficiently separated from the state’s energy industry that future energy cycles will pass similarly. Oklahoma’s oil and natural gas industry is at the end of a nearly unparalleled contraction. New drilling is all but shut down in the state. In September 2014, the state averaged 214 active rigs per week. After a stall to only 57 active rigs per week in May 2016, drilling activity recovered to 145 active rigs per week in November Date Energy Index 2018. In December 2020, weekly active rig counts averaged only 14. Industry activity is working towards a slow crawl Jan-00 89.75687242 Jan-00 105.22 from the bottom of this cycle with a highly uncertain future. While some move toward recovery in 2021 is anticipated, the Feb-00 90.43299452 0.8% Feb-00 105.22 combination of economic conditions, geology and federal regulatory policy is likely to preclude any rapid run-up to the Mar-00 91.96040376 1.7% Mar-00 105.22 Apr-00 90.59463104 -1.5% Apr-00 105.22 next boom. May-00 95.32492521 5.2% May-00 105.22 Jun-00 98.4003369 3.2% Jun-00 105.22 Oklahoma Energy Index Jul-00 100.6682204 2.3% Jul-00 105.22 300 Aug-00 104.6885789 4.0% Aug-00 105.22 Sep-00 107.1630944 2.4% Sep-00 105.22 Oct-00 106.7549709 -0.4% Oct-00 105.22 Nov-00 108.2488694 1.4% Nov-00 105.22 250 Dec-00 116.0061022 7.2% Dec-00 105.22 0

0 Jan-01 114.1472259 -1.6% Jan-01 105.22 0 2 Feb-01 113.718549 -0.4% Feb-01 105.22 r a e 200 Mar-01 114.6752798 0.8% Mar-01 105.22 Y Apr-01 114.3301623 -0.3% Apr-01 105.22 n i

0 May-01 115.0661053 0.6% May-01 105.22 0

1 Jun-01 117.8807298 2.4% Jun-01 105.22

150 Jul-01 115.7307371 -1.8% Jul-01 105.22 e s Aug-01 115.4488185 -0.2% Aug-01 105.22 a B

, Sep-01 109.6530492 -5.0% Sep-01 105.22 x

e Oct-01 106.8265476 -2.6% Oct-01 105.22 d 100 n I

Nov-01 103.1010504 -3.5% Nov-01 105.22 y g

r Dec-01 100.5625544 -2.5% Dec-01 105.22 e

n Jan-02 97.60860208 -2.9% Jan-02 105.22 E 50 Feb-02 98.10426349 0.5% Feb-02 105.22 Mar-02 101.1302394 3.1% Mar-02 105.22 Apr-02 102.5533126 1.4% Apr-02 105.22 May-02 107.0174808 4.4% May-02 105.22 0 Jun-02 107.4486455 0.4% Jun-02 105.22 Jul-02 106.9019796 -0.5% Jul-02 105.22 Aug-02 107.9578487 1.0% Aug-02 105.22 Sep-02 106.2532545 -1.6% Sep-02 105.22 OK Energy Index Current 6 per. Mov. Avg. (OK Energy Index) Oct-02 105.3903447 -0.8% Oct-02 105.22 Figure 4: Oklahoma Energy Index Nov-02 104.5232428 -0.8% Nov-02 105.22 Dec-02 106.9755323 2.3% Dec-02 105.22

The year ahead remains extraordinarily uncertain. There is some hope that widespread vaccination provides an exit to this pandemic period. There is some hope that Oklahoma’s energy industry finds its footing. There is some expectation Jan-03 110.5764921 3.4% Jan-03 105.22 that, in the meantime, personal income is artificially supported by federal economic policy. But beneath these hopes and expectations lay the inescapable reality that the state’s economy is distressed. At best, the year ahead may provide an opportunity to emerge from a period of extreme economic and social hardship, take stock of local industries and Feb-03 115.373476 4.3% Feb-03 105.22 opportunities, and navigate towards solid economic growth in 2022.

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 7 Mar-03 113.6755049 -1.5% Mar-03 105.22

Apr-03 112.2372634 -1.3% Apr-03 105.22

May-03 114.4249127 1.9% May-03 105.22

Jun-03 117.6147117 2.8% Jun-03 105.22 Jul-03 116.6268962 -0.8% Jul-03 105.22 Aug-03 119.136064 2.2% Aug-03 105.22 Sep-03 118.1419006 -0.8% Sep-03 105.22 Oct-03 119.1375835 0.8% Oct-03 105.22

Nov-03 119.4081263 0.2% Nov-03 105.22 Dec-03 123.0427808 3.0% Dec-03 105.22 Jan-04 124.3805988 1.1% Jan-04 105.22 Feb-04 124.5918957 0.2% Feb-04 105.22 Mar-04 126.9851598 1.9% Mar-04 105.22 Apr-04 129.5533157 2.0% Apr-04 105.22 May-04 132.6406308 2.4% May-04 105.22 Jun-04 134.8740523 1.7% Jun-04 105.22 Jul-04 135.5760571 0.5% Jul-04 105.22 Aug-04 136.1590063 0.4% Aug-04 105.22 Sep-04 135.2293168 -0.7% Sep-04 105.22 Oct-04 140.1338261 3.6% Oct-04 105.22 Nov-04 139.9985542 -0.1% Nov-04 105.22 Dec-04 139.6167878 -0.3% Dec-04 105.22 Jan-05 141.3470643 1.2% Jan-05 105.22 Feb-05 142.9027754 1.1% Feb-05 105.22 Mar-05 145.9554212 2.1% Mar-05 105.22 Apr-05 145.8213849 -0.1% Apr-05 105.22 May-05 145.8997213 0.1% May-05 105.22 Jun-05 149.3319243 2.4% Jun-05 105.22 Jul-05 151.4146842 1.4% Jul-05 105.22 Aug-05 157.199375 3.8% Aug-05 105.22 Sep-05 160.2616434 1.9% Sep-05 105.22 Oct-05 162.0359655 1.1% Oct-05 105.22 Nov-05 159.833005 -1.4% Nov-05 105.22 Dec-05 164.7891049 3.1% Dec-05 105.22 Jan-06 162.8765875 -1.2% Jan-06 105.22 Feb-06 165.219074 1.4% Feb-06 105.22 Mar-06 167.084843 1.1% Mar-06 105.22 Apr-06 171.7176246 2.8% Apr-06 105.22 May-06 173.3505687 1.0% May-06 105.22 Jun-06 177.1229914 2.2% Jun-06 105.22 Jul-06 178.3589683 0.7% Jul-06 105.22 Aug-06 183.6880562 3.0% Aug-06 105.22 Sep-06 178.2939131 -2.9% Sep-06 105.22 Oct-06 178.2463522 0.0% Oct-06 105.22 Nov-06 181.6272656 1.9% Nov-06 105.22 Dec-06 182.8012172 0.6% Dec-06 105.22 Jan-07 179.3973264 -1.9% Jan-07 105.22 Feb-07 183.1082681 2.1% Feb-07 105.22 Mar-07 184.6635777 0.8% Mar-07 105.22 Apr-07 185.4545506 0.4% Apr-07 105.22 May-07 187.9301582 1.3% May-07 105.22 Jun-07 192.0566078 2.2% Jun-07 105.22 Jul-07 193.7715027 0.9% Jul-07 105.22 Aug-07 196.1999388 1.3% Aug-07 105.22 Sep-07 196.8772944 0.3% Sep-07 105.22 Oct-07 202.9135053 3.1% Oct-07 105.22 Nov-07 207.7620558 2.4% Nov-07 105.22 Dec-07 207.4326518 -0.2% Dec-07 105.22 Jan-08 209.2658516 0.9% Jan-08 105.22 Feb-08 212.2309875 1.4% Feb-08 105.22 Mar-08 217.1705924 2.3% Mar-08 105.22 Apr-08 221.2233465 1.9% Apr-08 105.22 May-08 227.1994968 2.7% May-08 105.22 Jun-08 233.8252181 2.9% Jun-08 105.22 Jul-08 232.4812923 -0.6% Jul-08 105.22 Aug-08 230.142282 -1.0% Aug-08 105.22 Sep-08 227.2100927 -1.3% Sep-08 105.22 Oct-08 220.3563702 -3.0% Oct-08 105.22 Nov-08 213.1410743 -3.3% Nov-08 105.22 Dec-08 201.4340782 -5.5% Dec-08 105.22 Jan-09 188.8163142 -6.3% Jan-09 105.22 Feb-09 178.8215519 -5.3% Feb-09 105.22 Mar-09 171.8219728 -3.9% Mar-09 105.22 Apr-09 160.1627289 -6.8% Apr-09 105.22 May-09 156.5639328 -2.2% May-09 105.22 Jun-09 155.2371935 -0.8% Jun-09 105.22 Jul-09 150.9031573 -2.8% Jul-09 105.22 Aug-09 149.5661298 -0.9% Aug-09 105.22 Sep-09 145.5870882 -2.7% Sep-09 105.22 Oct-09 147.1531762 1.1% Oct-09 105.22 Nov-09 148.4888992 0.9% Nov-09 105.22 Dec-09 154.5323489 4.1% Dec-09 105.22 Jan-10 157.6310377 2.0% Jan-10 105.22 Feb-10 158.677709 0.7% Feb-10 105.22 Mar-10 160.0426905 0.9% Mar-10 105.22 Apr-10 163.784463 2.3% Apr-10 105.22 May-10 165.0230271 0.8% May-10 105.22 Jun-10 170.6583617 3.4% Jun-10 105.22 Jul-10 172.6041051 1.1% Jul-10 105.22 Aug-10 174.5260494 1.1% Aug-10 105.22 Sep-10 174.0585598 -0.3% Sep-10 105.22 Oct-10 177.8930762 2.2% Oct-10 105.22 Nov-10 179.2334684 0.8% Nov-10 105.22 Dec-10 186.287821 3.9% Dec-10 105.22 Jan-11 189.0435101 1.5% Jan-11 105.22 Feb-11 188.6285209 -0.2% Feb-11 105.22 Mar-11 193.6248289 2.6% Mar-11 105.22 Apr-11 198.7182365 2.6% Apr-11 105.22 May-11 200.5577602 0.9% May-11 105.22 Jun-11 203.5912053 1.5% Jun-11 105.22 Jul-11 208.7314029 2.5% Jul-11 105.22 Aug-11 208.8679439 0.1% Aug-11 105.22 Sep-11 210.6266679 0.8% Sep-11 105.22 Oct-11 212.6292882 1.0% Oct-11 105.22 Nov-11 214.5347021 0.9% Nov-11 105.22 Dec-11 217.1733631 1.2% Dec-11 105.22 Jan-12 213.8906713 -1.5% Jan-12 105.22 Feb-12 216.5370467 1.2% Feb-12 105.22 Mar-12 217.4062564 0.4% Mar-12 105.22 Apr-12 216.6783018 -0.3% Apr-12 105.22 May-12 220.6496954 1.8% May-12 105.22 Jun-12 221.4194989 0.3% Jun-12 105.22 Jul-12 226.1684601 2.1% Jul-12 105.22 Aug-12 227.2754819 0.5% Aug-12 105.22 Sep-12 225.5691867 -0.8% Sep-12 105.22 Oct-12 227.0414158 0.7% Oct-12 105.22 Nov-12 227.133529 0.0% Nov-12 105.22 Dec-12 224.6360126 -1.1% Dec-12 105.22 Jan-13 224.9758224 0.2% Jan-13 105.22 Feb-13 226.5508111 0.7% Feb-13 105.22 Mar-13 227.6166228 0.5% Mar-13 105.22 Apr-13 229.3303241 0.8% Apr-13 105.22 May-13 231.5731507 1.0% May-13 105.22 Jun-13 232.0816641 0.2% Jun-13 105.22 Jul-13 230.6199449 -0.6% Jul-13 105.22 Aug-13 230.4815751 -0.1% Aug-13 105.22 Sep-13 230.0672898 -0.2% Sep-13 105.22 Oct-13 231.035736 0.4% Oct-13 105.22 Nov-13 229.5636123 -0.6% Nov-13 105.22 Dec-13 233.4443517 1.7% Dec-13 105.22 Jan-14 233.2081035 -0.1% Jan-14 105.22 Feb-14 237.1153323 1.7% Feb-14 105.22 Mar-14 235.5875168 -0.6% Mar-14 105.22 Apr-14 236.5850287 0.4% Apr-14 105.22 May-14 238.82663 0.9% May-14 105.22 Jun-14 243.4478755 1.9% Jun-14 105.22 Jul-14 244.2981666 0.3% Jul-14 105.22 Aug-14 246.5036169 0.9% Aug-14 105.22 Sep-14 247.3392793 0.3% Sep-14 105.22 Oct-14 246.2382927 -0.4% Oct-14 105.22 Nov-14 247.316488 0.4% Nov-14 105.22 Dec-14 240.4632609 -2.8% Dec-14 105.22 Jan-15 228.2511319 -5.1% Jan-15 105.22 Feb-15 215.8014186 -5.5% Feb-15 105.22 Mar-15 202.9776558 -5.9% Mar-15 105.22 Apr-15 191.8898614 -5.5% Apr-15 105.22 May-15 186.2143691 -3.0% May-15 105.22 Jun-15 183.8858651 -1.3% Jun-15 105.22 Jul-15 181.574044 -1.3% Jul-15 105.22 Aug-15 177.563807 -2.2% Aug-15 105.22 Sep-15 175.1794335 -1.3% Sep-15 105.22 Oct-15 167.2793836 -4.5% Oct-15 105.22 Nov-15 160.7233588 -3.9% Nov-15 105.22 Dec-15 156.9936092 -2.3% Dec-15 105.22 Jan-16 153.2489506 -2.4% Jan-16 105.22 Feb-16 146.7187084 -4.3% Feb-16 105.22 Mar-16 142.0168594 -3.2% Mar-16 105.22 Apr-16 140.2042012 -1.3% Apr-16 105.22 May-16 137.8349367 -1.7% May-16 105.22 Jun-16 140.5466634 2.0% Jun-16 105.22 Jul-16 140.4686591 -0.1% Jul-16 105.22 Aug-16 141.4898857 0.7% Aug-16 105.22 Sep-16 143.4228653 1.4% Sep-16 105.22 Oct-16 147.7134564 3.0% Oct-16 105.22 Nov-16 147.829216 0.1% Nov-16 105.22 Dec-16 155.9053938 5.5% Dec-16 105.22 Jan-17 156.9591492 0.7% Jan-17 105.22 Feb-17 161.7691104 3.1% Feb-17 105.22 Mar-17 164.1232682 1.5% Mar-17 105.22 Apr-17 170.6224102 4.0% Apr-17 105.22 May-17 172.0433083 0.8% May-17 105.22 Jun-17 176.2447961 2.4% Jun-17 105.22 Jul-17 179.2624717 1.7% Jul-17 105.22 Aug-17 181.0636249 1.0% Aug-17 105.22 Sep-17 183.1948046 1.2% Sep-17 105.22 Oct-17 183.9096035 0.4% Oct-17 105.22 Nov-17 186.4043412 1.4% Nov-17 105.22 Dec-17 187.818382 0.8% Dec-17 105.22 Jan-18 191.3616803 1.9% Jan-18 105.22 Feb-18 189.5771334 -0.9% Feb-18 105.22 Mar-18 191.5254047 1.0% Mar-18 105.22 Apr-18 194.7570051 1.7% Apr-18 105.22 May-18 199.0012039 2.2% May-18 105.22 Jun-18 202.0763101 1.5% Jun-18 105.22 Jul-18 204.286187 1.1% Jul-18 105.22 Aug-18 206.0436972 0.9% Aug-18 105.22 Sep-18 206.4101956 0.2% Sep-18 105.22 Oct-18 208.913911 1.2% Oct-18 105.22 Nov-18 208.6569227 -0.1% Nov-18 105.22 Dec-18 206.5079791 -1.0% Dec-18 105.22 Jan-19 198.2058681 -4.0% Jan-19 105.22 Feb-19 193.6563021 -2.3% Feb-19 105.22 Mar-19 192.9292196 -0.4% Mar-19 105.22 Apr-19 190.7120157 -1.1% Apr-19 105.22 May-19 186.7583424 -2.1% May-19 105.22 Jun-19 182.9753169 -2.0% Jun-19 105.22 Jul-19 176.6325595 -3.5% Jul-19 105.22 Aug-19 169.9276413 -3.8% Aug-19 105.22 Sep-19 165.6228382 -2.5% Sep-19 105.22 Oct-19 161.2634874 -2.6% Oct-19 105.22 Nov-19 156.800726 -2.8% Nov-19 105.22 Dec-19 153.2323706 -2.3% Dec-19 105.22 Jan-20 147.5836236 -3.7% Jan-20 105.22 Feb-20 144.9233269 -1.8% Feb-20 105.22 Mar-20 136.5167743 -5.8% Mar-20 105.22 Apr-20 115.2603855 -15.6% Apr-20 105.22 May-20 107.382907 -6.8% May-20 105.22 Jun-20 103.5934671 -3.5% Jun-20 105.22 Jul-20 103.2257421 -0.4% Jul-20 105.22 Aug-20 105.2725103 2.0% Aug-20 105.22 Sep-20 104.7881596 -0.5% Sep-20 105.22 Oct-20 104.6303837 -0.2% Oct-20 105.22 Nov-20 105.2216898 0.6% Nov-20 105.22 THE U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Assessing the true state of the national economy is less straightforward than the analysis of Oklahoma. Before the pandemic, the U.S. economy enjoyed an uninterrupted run of economic growth dating back to the first quarter of 2014. The growth was modest but persistent. Signs of slowing activity emerged in late 2019 before the arrival of the novel coronavirus in early 2020 froze much of the economic system in place. While there is optimism that vaccination programs can move the economy past this period of pandemic later in 2021, it’s not clear what will be found in its wake. Behaviors like business travel, social enjoyment of the arts and unquestioning belief in the virtues of density may be slow to return to pre-pandemic levels. For much of the labor force, there will be a reckoning of their personal income and production realities. At the very least, it seems unlikely that pent up demand is waiting in the wings to launch economic activity back to and beyond trend growth. Instead, it is more likely that we see a slow reconciliation of the true economic hardship imposed by the pandemic and the policy that obscures that reality. The U.S. economy returns to growth in 2021 with real GDP growing by roughly 2%, a pace that would have real GDP return to pre- pandemic levels only in late 2021. Barring another impediment to growth, economic activity should post stronger gains in 2022. U.S. Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures 5.0 U.S. Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures 5.0 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.6 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.0

% Change, Annual 0.0

% Change, Annual -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.6 -2.5 -3.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-2.6 2020-2.5 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year Real GDP Personal Consumption Expenditures Real GDP Personal Consumption Expenditures Figure 5: U.S. Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures

8 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST Nonfarm employment plummeted in 2020 as large segments of production were disrupted by the pandemic and policies meant to contain it. Before the pandemic, there were approximately 152 million nonfarm payroll jobs in the U.S. economy. In the spring of 2020, with much of the country in a shelter-in-place strategy, that number fell to 130 million. As steps have been taken to re-engage the economy, some jobs have returned with the payroll job count currently at 142 million. The pace of job recovery has slowed, even losing jobs in December. The difficulty in regaining jobs will carry into 2021 and is only expected to accelerate later in the year. As payroll job counts fell, the share of workers in the labor force who were unemployed spiked to 14.8%. Measuring the unemployment rate proved particularly challenging as workers on temporary leave from their positions, even if unpaid, are still counted as employed. The survey administered to participating households struggled to classify confused workers as it was not clear if their leave was temporary or permanent. In the end, reported unemployment rates probably understate the true health of the labor market. The unemployment rate is currently 6.7% and is expected to fall modestly through 2021, averaging 5.7% for the year.

U.S. Nonfarm Employment 155.0 18.0

150.9 151.3 16.0 150.0 147.5 14.0

145.0 12.0 142.4

10.0 140.0 8.1 8.0

5.7 135.0 6.0 4.7 Civilian Civilian Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment, Millions 3.7 4.0 130.0 2.0

125.0 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year Figure 6: U.S. Nonfarm Employment

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 9 10 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST The preceding discussion tells the story of 2021. Economic activity has stabilized and is working to withstand the most recent surge in virus activity. But the path from stable to full health is still ahead and will not be easily passed. Federal Reserve officials were quick to acknowledge this reality and move quickly not just to address the abrupt economic challenges of 2020 but pledge to hold an accommodative stance well into 2022. We expect monetary authorities to keep this promise and hold the federal funds rate near zero through the forecast horizon. Core inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, is expected to hold right at the Fed’s target of 2%. The Federal Reserve has also signaled a willingness not just to treat the downside and upside of this target symmetrically, but also to allow inflation to run a bit above target, if necessary, to achieve a 2% average over time. It remains to be seen how committed monetary policymakers are to this strategy and how tolerant markets will be of it. Treasury yields remain low keeping mortgage rates and other related interest charges low by historical standards.

U.S. Inflation and Interest Rate 3.5

3.0

2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0

0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Core PCE Price Index Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury Yield Figure 7: U.S. Inflation and Interest Rate

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 11 As 2019 turned to 2020, Oklahoma teetered on the brink THE OKLAHOMA of recession. Employment growth had nearly disappeared with ECONOMIC OUTLOOK gains in the services sector offset by losses in the goods-producing sectors of mining, construction Measured against the same month a year ago, the Oklahoma economy and manufacturing. The economic typically adds 25,000 to 30,000 jobs during periods of growth (see January road ahead was cluttered 2018 to January 2019 period below). Early in 2019 year-over-year growth in with downside risks leaving nonfarm employment slowed considerably. As 2019 yielded to 2020 nonfarm Oklahomans to hope that a strong employment was essentially unchanged from a year ago. Employment in the U.S. economy would carry us services sector, led by leisure, hospitality and business services, held to growth through the year. The prospects of through the year. Employment in the goods-producing sectors, by contrast, was U.S. economic strength seemed in decline by summer. It is worth emphasizing again that the sectors holding strained at best before the arrival up state economic activity at the end of 2019 were some of the sectors to be of the coronavirus pandemic hardest hit in the pandemic of 2020. caused U.S. economic systems of exchange to seize up.

Figure 8: Oklahoma Employment Pre-Pandemic

12 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST Real GDP MIN GDP Pers. Income 2016:Q1 190802.8 43283.9 164646.5 2016:Q2 188546.8 37686.2 164070.9 2016:Q3 186918 36436.6 164195.9 2016:Q4 185985.5 -2.5% 34512.7 -20.3% 164940.1 0.2% 2017:Q1 186772.3 -0.9% 37094.9 -1.6% 168475.5 2.7% 2017:Q2 188666.6 0.9% 37695.5 3.5% 171517.3 4.5% 2017:Q3 188395.4 1.3% 36362 5.4% 173310.2 5.1% 2017:Q4 188794.5 1.1% 36562 -1.4% 175375.2 4.1% 2018:Q1 191198.7 1.3% 37915.7 0.6% 177767.3 3.6% 2018:Q2 192463.5 2.2% 38637.4 6.3% 179470.2 3.6% 2018:Q3 193257.7 2.4% 38726.4 5.9% 181604 3.6% 2018:Q4 195899.1 2.5% 40775.4 7.5% 183693 3.3% 2019:Q1 198134.5 2.9% 42343.1 9.6% 186866.4 4.1% 2019:Q2 197739.2 2.3% 42602.1 10.0% 186543.7 2.7% Just as employment growth had stalled by the end of 2019, so too had Oklahoma’s gross state product. Oklahoma’s real 2019:Q3 198518.9 1.3% 41774.9 2.5% 187709.4 2.2% GDP was down2019:Q4 0.5% measured 197208.9against the fourth quarter-0.5% of 2019 while39150.4 personal income-7.5% was up just188190.4 0.7%. By mid-0.7% March 2020, the2020:Q1 state had identified 193501.4 the first of many-2.1% positive coronavirus36341.4 cases to come-14.7% and the governor189373.6 issued 1.5%the first emergency2020:Q2 declaration. While 176264.4 pandemic anxiety-11.2% certainly contributed31532.5 to economic-24.5% weakness in 208784.4the first quarter11.2% of 2020, it was hardly2020:Q3 the leading factor. 186075.7 Instead, internal-5.6% weakness drove30257.7 real GDP down-22.7% 2.1%. Oklahoma195168.1 was in a mild3.7% recession, as predicted, before the full economic and social disruptive force of the pandemic came to bear.

Oklahoma GDP and Personal Income 6.0% 5.1% 5.0% 4.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.3% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%

Q4/Q4 Percent Change -1.0% -0.5% -0.9% -2.0% -2.1% -3.0% -2.5%

Real GDP Personal Income

Figure 9: Oklahoma GDP and Personal Income

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 13 Looking ahead to 2021 and 2022 is complicated by the uncertainty of our true current state of economic health. Beneath the pandemic anxiety, changed behaviors and federal relief policy lies an ill-defined economic base that will only be revealed as the layers above recede. In that sense, 2021 will be a revelatory year. By year’s end, we should know better our true economic condition and the forces that will shape 2022. The forecasts and discussions that follow reflect what is currently known in the tumultuous data rather than what is speculated about future policy. As the policies of the new administration and vaccination schedules unfold, the reader is encouraged to adjust their expectations accordingly. The year ahead will be characterized by a slow exit from the pandemic economic reality. In many ways, a slow and smooth exit is a best-case scenario. Such an uneventful exit would imply an efficient and effective vaccine distribution that sharply slows the spread and mortality rates of the virus with consumers again (perhaps not until later in 2021) gathering for social consumption. The Oklahoma economy will post GDP growth in the second quarter of 2021 when compared to the very distressed second quarter of 2020. Economic growth will remain slow through the end of the year with economic activity likely not returning to the end of 2019 levels until 2022. Economic growth accelerates in 2022 with annual GDP and personal income growth near 5%. Oklahoma Real GDP and Personal Income Oklahoma Population and Per Capita Income $210,000 15.0% 4,060,000 $48,000

4,035,603 4,040,000 $46,574 $47,000 $190,000 10.0% $45,573 $46,000 4,020,000 4,011,729 5.6% 6.0% $45,131 4.8% 5.0% $44,703 $170,000 5.0% $44,400 $45,000 4,000,000 $43,742 $44,000 10.6% 4.5% 5.1% 5.3% 4.8% 3,980,000 $43,149 $150,000 0.0% Population $42,818 $42,774$42,656$42,789 $43,000 $42,253

Q4/Q4 Growth 3,960,000 $130,000 -5.0% $42,000 Income Personal Capita Per

Real GDP and Income Mil) ($ Income and GDP Real 3,940,000 $41,000 $110,000 -10.0% 3,920,000 $40,000 -10.9%

$90,000 -15.0% 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4 2022:Q1 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 2022:Q4

Figure 10: OklahomaQ4/Q4 Real Growth GDP and Q4/Q4Personal Growth Income Real GDP ($ Mil) Real Personal Income ($ Mil) Real Per Capita Personal Income Population

14 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST Population growth rates in Oklahoma had hovered near 0.75% per year until the energy contraction of 2015-2016. Population growth fell by half as the state’s economy moved into recession. This experience has called into question the balance of forces in supporting population growth. We remain optimistic that the pull of the I-35 corridor is a long-run force for population growth that will ebb and flow around economic cycles. This implies that much of the population gains will be concentrated in the Oklahoma City MSA and surrounding areas changing the geographic and demographic spread of the state’s population. State population growth is expected to see a small bounce in 2021 before settling in at a long-run trend of 0.65% in 2022 with the statewide population exceeding four million persons. Real (adjusted for inflation) per capita income spiked to $46,574 in the second quarter of 2020 as federal policy pumped personal transfer receipts into households. As the policy withdraws, per capita personal income will retreat before finding growth again in 2022 and reaching $45,000 per person by the end of the forecast period. Note that the forecast does not explicitly assume a second spike in transfer receipts even though the incoming Biden administration is prioritizing another round of trillion-dollar support. If the administration is successful in escorting through this legislation, we could see another and similar spike in personal and per capita income. Oklahoma Real GDP and Personal Income Oklahoma Population and Per Capita Income $210,000 15.0% 4,060,000 $48,000

Q4/Q4 Growth 3,960,000 $130,000 -5.0% $42,000 Income Personal Capita Per

Real GDP and Income Mil) ($ Income and GDP Real 3,940,000 $41,000 $110,000 -10.0% 3,920,000 $40,000 -10.9%

$90,000 -15.0% 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4 2022:Q1 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 2022:Q4 Figure 11: Oklahoma Population and Per Capita Income Q4/Q4 Growth Q4/Q4 Growth Real GDP ($ Mil) Real Personal Income ($ Mil) Real Per Capita Personal Income Population

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 15 Oklahoma nonfarm employment fell sharply in 2020— a combination of a local energy contraction and a global viral pandemic. This particular recession has impacted and is impacting lower-income workers in hourly and service-providing industries. Employment losses have been the most pronounced in industries that rely on some level of social nearness in consumption: arts, theatres, restaurants, leisure travel, conferences/events, etc. With a move towards remote work, many on-location administrative and support staff have been impacted similarly. A return to pre-pandemic employment levels necessarily requires a return of these jobs which in turn requires a return to social consumption in these industries. The path back would appear to be slow with some behaviors lingering longer than others. Average monthly nonfarm payrolls will be up only 0.7% in 2021 before returning to a more impressive growth of 2.3% in 2022. Note, however, that at these growth rates, nonfarm employment does not return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2022.

Oklahoma Nonfarm and Private Employment Oklahoma Goods and Services Employment Growth 1,800 8.0% 0.08 1,680.4 6.6% 5.7% 0.06 1,600 6.0% 4.8% 5.0%

0.04 1,400 4.0% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 0.02 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1,200 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 2.0% 0.1% 0 0.7% 1,000 0.0% -0.02 800 -2.8% -0.04 -3.0% -2.0% -3.7% 600

Employment, Thousands Employment, -0.06 %Change, Annual Average -4.0% Average Annual % Change, 400 -6.8% -0.08

-6.0% 200 -0.1 -10.5% 0 -8.0% -0.12 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Avg. % Change, Annual Avg. Nonfarm Private Goods Sectors Services Sector

Figure 12: Oklahoma Nonfarm and Private Employment

16 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST The goods sector is comprised of mining, construction and manufacturing operations. Other industries, including the public sector (federal, state and local governments) make up the services sector. In Oklahoma, the services sector represents about 85% of nonfarm employment with the goods sector accounting for the other 15%. But the goods sector tends to drive economic cycles in the state with oil and gas booms and busts spilling over into other industries. The graph below illustrates the volatility and spillover of the goods sector. Strong growth in 2011 and 2012 supported service-providing industries and they sustained growth even through a modest slowing in 2013 and 2014. But when the goods sectors contracted in the 2015-2016 downturn, growth in the services sector collapsed in response as the state’s economy struggled. The current oil and gas contraction paired with pandemic health policies and changes in economic behavior pulled both sectors down in 2020. The services sector will lead the modest recovery in the upcoming year with the goods sector still down in 2021 compared to a year ago. This is not meant to imply that the goods sector will lose jobs throughout the year. Instead, the sector will gain jobs so slowly as to leave the average size of payrolls lower in 2021 than in 2020. Growth resumes in 2022 with statewide employment slowly moving back to its pre-pandemic level.

Oklahoma Nonfarm and Private Employment Oklahoma Goods and Services Employment Growth 1,800 8.0% 0.08 1,680.4 6.6% 5.7% 0.06 1,600 6.0% 4.8% 5.0%

0.04 1,400 4.0% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 0.02 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1,200 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 2.0% 0.1% 0 0.7% 1,000 0.0% -0.02 800 -2.8% -0.04 -3.0% -2.0% -3.7% 600

Employment, Thousands Employment, -0.06 %Change, Annual Average -4.0% Average Annual % Change, 400 -6.8% -0.08

-6.0% 200 -0.1 -10.5% 0 -8.0% -0.12 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Avg. % Change, Annual Avg. Nonfarm Private Goods Sectors Services Sector

Figure 13: Oklahoma Goods and Services Employment Growth

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 17 Oklahoma City’s economic future THE OKLAHOMA CITY will not be too dissimilar from the path laid out for the state. The year ahead offers hope of an exit ECONOMIC OUTLOOK from our pandemic economic reality and a bottom to the current energy cycle. Both should help The policies that pumped transfer receipts into Oklahoma City households to provide important, if modest, generate the rather unusual relationship between MSA GDP and personal support to the economy in 2021. income below. The two are generally positively correlated, moving in the More importantly, both should set same direction during both good and bad economic realities. In 2020 and the stage for a return to growth in 2021, however, the correlation reverses. Metro GDP falls by 6.8% even 2022 as the MSA returns to and as personal income grows by 3.8%. The effects will unwind in 2021 with grows on from pre-pandemic levels MSA GDP growing at 1.8% and personal income dropping by 2.7%. If all of economic activity. goes as planned in 2021, correlations should be righted by 2022 with both personal income and GDP returning to growth and recovering their pre- pandemic levels.

Oklahoma City MSA Income and GDP Oklahoma City MSA Per Capita Personal Income 90,000,000 52000 $50,364 $50,393 0.1 80,000,000 50000 $48,860 $48,567 70,000,000 5.4% $47,607 4.9% 48000 60,000,000 3.8% 0.05 $46,034 46000 $45,323 1.8% $44,924 50,000,000 $44,458 44000 0 $42,900 40,000,000 $42,418

30,000,000 42000 Annual Growth Growth Annual Percent

-2.7% $ Income, Personal Per Capita

Income and GDP, $ Thousands $ GDP, and Income 20,000,000 -0.05 40000

10,000,000 -6.8% 38000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -0.1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

PI Growth RGDP Growth Personal Income ($ Thou) Real Metro GDP ($ Thou) Figure 14: Oklahoma City MSA Income and GDP

Oklahoma City MSA Population 1500000 0.04

1,447,329 1450000 1,418,813 0.03 1,431,582 1400000 0.02

1350000 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.01 1300000 18 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST Annual Growth MSA Population 0 1250000

-0.01 1200000

1150000 -0.02 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Annual Growth Population Oklahoma City MSA Income and GDP Oklahoma City MSA IncomOek lahnodm Ga CDiPty MSA Per Capita Personal Income Oklahoma City MSA Per Capita Personal Income 52000 90,000,000 90,000,000 52000 $50,364 $50,393 $50,364 $50,393 0.1 0.1 80,000,000 80,000,000 50000 $48,860 50000 $48,567 $48,860 $48,567 70,000,000 5.4% 70,000,000 48000 $47,6075.4% $47,607 4.9% 4.9% 48000 3.8% 0.05 60,000,000 60,000,000 3.8% $46,034 0.05 $46,034 46000 $45,323 $44,924 46000 $45,323 1.8% 1.8% $44,924 50,000,000 50,000,000 $44,458 $44,458 44000 44000 40,000,000 0 $42,900 0 $42,900 40,000,000 $42,418 $42,418 42000 30,000,000 30,000,000 42000 Annual Growth Growth Annual Percent Per Capita Personal Income, $ Income, Personal Per Capita -2.7% Growth Annual Percent

-2.7% $ Income, Personal Per Capita

Income and GDP, $ Thousands $ GDP, and Income 20,000,000 -0.05 40000

10,000,000 -6.8% 10,000,000 38000 -6.8% 38000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -0.1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 Figure 15: Oklahoma City Per Capita Personal Income -0.1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212012 2022 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

PI Growth RGDP Growth Personal Income ($ Thou) Real Metro GDP ($ Thou)PI Growth RGDP GrowthAfter spiking, in 2020Personal per Income capita ($ personal Thou) incomeReal will Metroretreat GDP in 2021 ($ Thou) to 2019 levels in the absence of another round of trillion-dollar transfers. Organic income growth from increasing production returns later in 2021 and into 2022 as per capita income in the MSA tops $50,000. Oklahoma City’s population growth slowed sharply (see below) from 2016 through 2018. Population growth returns to a solid 0.9% and 1.1% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Oklahoma City MSA Population Oklahoma City MSA Population 1500000 1500000 0.04 0.04

1,447,329 1,447,329 1450000 1450000 0.03 1,418,813 1,418,813 0.03 1,431,582 1,431,582 1400000 1400000 0.02 0.02 1350000 1.1% 0.9% 1350000 1.1% 0.01 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.01 1300000 1300000 Annual Growth MSA Population Annual Growth MSA Population 0 0 1250000 1250000

-0.01 -0.01 1200000 1200000

1150000 1150000 -0.02 -0.02 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Annual Growth Population Annual Growth Population Figure 16: Oklahoma City MSA Population

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 19 Oklahoma City nonfarm employment fell by 3% in 2020 representing average nonfarm payroll jobs for the year that were 20,000 fewer than 2019. Employment losses were led by the oil and gas industry with manufacturing jobs lost as oil and gas weakness spilled into complementary industries. The pandemic then stressed services sectors such as administrative and support business services and leisure and hospitality, both of which had provided key areas of employment strength in previous years. Importantly, payroll jobs will be quicker to recover in Oklahoma City than in the state as a whole. Nonfarm employment will grow by 3.2% in 2021 and return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. Growth moderates to something closer to trend in 2022 with average nonfarm payrolls increasing by 1.5% to 670,000 metro area jobs. Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment 680 $670.0 0.07 93 0.2 $659.1 $659.9 88 85.5 660 0.05 0.15 3.2% 83 80.2 640 0.1 0.03 76.5 1.5% $639.4 1.5% 78 4.8% 620 0.05 77.5 0.01 73 600 0 68 -0.2% -0.01 -1.2% 580 -0.05 63 -0.03 -0.1 560 -3.0% 58 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change,

% Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, -9.4% Goods Employment, Thousands

Nonfarm Employment, Thousands Employment, Nonfarm -0.05 540 53 -0.15

520 -0.07 48 -0.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Nonfarm % Change, Annual Average Goods Figure 17: Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment

Oklahoma City MSA Services Sector Employment Oklahoma City MSA Oil and Gas Employment 648 0.1 0.5 0.08 19.3 587.1 20 598 573.6 578.4 0.06 0.4 3.0% 0.04 548 1.7% 561.6 1.5% 15.1 0.3 0.02 15 498 0 12.9 17.5% 0.2

-0.02 13.4 448 -2.1% 0.1 -0.04 10

-0.06 Average Annual % Change, 0 398 Goods Employment, Thousands -0.08 -3.7% -0.1

348 -0.1 -10.7% Average Annual % Change, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Thousands Mining Employment, 5 20 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST -0.2 % Change, Annual Average Services -0.3 -30.7% 0 -0.4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Mining (Oil and Gas)

Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment

39 36 35.6 0.07 35.4

37 0.09 0.06 35

35 34.2 0.05 33.9 32.8 34 33 34.1 3.8% 32.0 0.04 0.04 2.5% 33 31 32.1 0.03 0.8%

29 32 1.5% 0.02 -0.3% -0.01 27 0.7% 0.01 31 0.5% % Annual Change,

25 0 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 30 -0.06

Manufacturing Employment, Thousands Employment, Manufacturing 23 -6.0% -0.01 Financial Services Financial Services Thousands Employment, 29 21 -0.02

19 -0.11 28 -0.03 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Manufacturing % Change, Annual Average Financial Services

Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment

80 76.0 0.15 74.5 74.0

68.1 0.1 0.09 60

50 0.05 0.03 40 0.01

0 30 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 20 -0.05 Leisure Services Employment, Thousands Employment, Services Leisure

-0.09 0 -0.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Leisure Services Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment 680 $670.0 0.07 93 0.2 $659.1 $659.9 88 85.5 660 0.05 0.15 3.2% 83 Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment 80.2 Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment 640 0.1 0.03 680 76.5 $670.0 0.07 93 0.2 1.5% $639.4 1.5% 78 4.8% 620 $659.1 $659.9 0.05 0.01 77.5 88 85.5 73660 0.05 0.15 600 0 3.2% 83 80.2 -0.01 68640 -0.2% 0.1 -1.2% 0.03 580 -0.05 76.5 1.5% $639.4 1.5% 78 4.8% 63620 0.05 -0.03 -0.10.01 77.5 560 -3.0% 58 73 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change,

% Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, -9.4% 600 0 Goods Employment, Thousands

Nonfarm Employment, Thousands Employment, Nonfarm -0.05 68 -0.2% 540 53 -0.15-0.01 -1.2% 580 -0.05 63 520 -0.07 48 -0.2 -0.03 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -0.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 560 -3.0% 58 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change,

% Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, -9.4%

% Change, Annual Average Goods Goods Employment, Thousands % Change, Annual Average Nonfarm Thousands Employment, Nonfarm -0.05 540 53 -0.15 Figure 18: Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment 520 -0.07 48 -0.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 The graph above illustrates the employment cycles that characterize the goods sector with growth followed by contraction. Recently, however, each successive% Change, period Annual of growth Average is insufficientNonfarm to return employment to its previous peak. % Change, Annual Average Goods Both the manufacturing and mining sectors are moving away from labor-intensive production and each contraction brings Oklahoma City MSA Services Sector Employment new production efficienciesO thatkla limitho memploymenta City MgainsSA in O thei lrecovery. and G Theas servicesEmpl osector,yme inn tcontrast, has generally traced out consistent gains of 1.5% to 2% per year. Service industries will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021 before 648 0.1 posting solid gains again in 2022. 0.5 0.08 19.3 587.1 20 598 573.6 578.4 0.06 Oklahoma City MSA Services Sector Employment 0.4 Oklahoma City MSA Oil and Gas Employment 3.0% 0.04 548 648 0.1 1.7% 561.6 1.5% 15.1 0.3 0.02 0.5 0.08 19.3 15 587.1 20 498 0 598 573.6 578.412.9 17.5% 0.2 0.06 0.4 -0.02 13.4 3.0% 0.04 448 -2.1% 548 0.1 -0.04 1.7% 561.6 1.5% 15.1 0.3 0.02 10 15

-0.06 Average Annual % Change, 0 398 498 0 12.9 17.5% 0.2 Goods Employment, Thousands -0.08 -3.7% -0.02-0.1 13.4 0.1 348 -0.1 448 -2.1% Average Annual % Change, -10.7% -0.04 Mining Employment, Thousands Mining Employment, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5 -0.2 10

-0.06 Average Annual % Change, 0 398

% Change, Annual Average Services Goods Employment, Thousands -0.08-0.3 -3.7% -0.1 -30.7% 348 -0.1 -10.7% Average Annual % Change,

0 -0.4 Thousands Mining Employment, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5 -0.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 % Change, Annual Average Services % Change, Annual Average Mining (Oil and Gas) -0.3 Figure 19: Oklahoma City MSA Services Sector Employment -30.7% 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 21 0 -0.4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment % Change, Annual Average Mining (Oil and Gas)

39 36 35.6 0.07 35.4

37 0.09 0.06 35 Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment 35 34.2 0.05 39 33.9 36 35.6 0.07 32.8 34 35.4 34.1 3.8% 33 32.0 0.04 0.04 37 0.09 0.06 2.5% 35 33 31 32.1 0.03 35 34.2 0.05 0.8% 33.9 32.8 34 29 32 0.02 34.1 3.8% 33 1.5% 32.0 0.04 -0.01 0.04 -0.3% 2.5% 27 0.7% 0.01 33 31 32.1 0.5% 0.03 % Annual Change, 0.8% 25 0 29 Average Annual % Change, 32 0.02 30 1.5% -0.06 -0.3% -0.01

Manufacturing Employment, Thousands Employment, Manufacturing 23 -6.0% -0.01 0.7%

Financial Services Financial Services Thousands Employment, 27 0.01 31 0.5% 29 % Annual Change, 21 -0.02 25 0 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 30 19 -0.11 28 -0.03-0.06 Manufacturing Employment, Thousands Employment, Manufacturing 23 -6.0% -0.01

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Financial Services Thousands Employment, 29 % Change, Annual Average Manufacturing 21 % Change, Annual Average Financial Services -0.02

19 -0.11 28 -0.03 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment % Change, Annual Average Manufacturing % Change, Annual Average Financial Services

80 76.0 0.15 74.5 74.0

70 Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment 68.1 0.1 0.09 80 76.0 0.15 60 74.5 74.0

70 50 0.05 68.1 0.1 0.09 0.03 60 40 0.01

0 50 30 0.05 0.03

% Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 40 20 0.01 -0.05 Leisure Services Employment, Thousands Employment, Services Leisure 0 30 10 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, -0.09 20 0 -0.1 -0.05 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Thousands Employment, Services Leisure 10 % Change, Annual Average Leisure Services

-0.09 0 -0.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Leisure Services Oklahoma’s oil and gas industry turned to contraction long before pandemic forces drove the U.S. economy into recession. The disproportionate contraction of Oklahoma’s oil and gas industry in this energy cycle poses concerns that Production Index go beyond the short-term outlook. The pace of crude oil production in Oklahoma far outpaced that of total U.S. crude Date OK US OK US production over the last decade. More recently, however, Oklahoma oil production leveled off and turned to contraction Jan-00 189 5784 100 100 before the pandemic caused the same to happen to U.S. production. In the contraction, Oklahoma production fell more Feb-00 207 5852 109.5238 101.1757 sharply than total U.S. production. Mar-00 197 5918 104.2328 102.3167 Crude Oil Production Apr-00 195 5854 103.1746 101.2102 May-00 193 5847 102.1164 101.0892 350 Jun-00 191 5823 101.0582 100.6743 300 Jul-00 189 5739 100 99.22199 Aug-00 184 5789 97.3545 100.0864 250 Sep-00 201 5758 106.3492 99.55048 Oct-00 180 5809 95.2381 100.4322 200 Nov-00 187 5833 98.9418 100.8472 150 Dec-00 183 5855 96.8254 101.2275 Jan-01 186 5799 98.4127 100.2593 100 Feb-01 190 5780 100.5291 99.93084 Mar-01 201 5880 106.3492 101.6598 50 Apr-01 198 5863 104.7619 101.3658 0 May-01 190 5829 100.5291 100.778 Jun-01 194 5766 102.6455 99.6888

Jul-01 182 5749 96.2963 99.39488 Production,BPD Thousand2000 = (January 100) Aug-01 179 5725 94.70899 98.97994 OK US Figure 20: Crude Oil Production (OK and US) Sep-01 183 5709 96.8254 98.70332 Oct-01 186 5746 98.4127State 99.34302 Jan-19The fall Jan-20 in productionOct-20 is directly reflected in the collapse in rig activity in Oklahoma compared to surrounding energy Nov-01 183 5881 96.8254New Mexico 101.677 108states. In 106January 2019, 45 long -0.01852before the pandemic -0.57547 moved the global economy into recession, rig activity was already Dec-01 182 5887 96.2963Colorado 101.7808 35slowing in 21Oklahoma. Oklahoma4 -0.4averaged -0.80952 132 active rigs each week in January 2019 compared to 108 active rigs in New Mexico and 54 in North Dakota. A year later in January 2020, New Mexico still averaged 106 active rigs and Jan-02 186 5873 98.4127Wyoming 101.5387 33 24 2 -0.27273 -0.91667 North Dakota 51. In contrast, Oklahoma’s active rigs fell to 52 from 132 the year before. As 2020 settled into a global Feb-02 179 5881 94.70899North Dakota101.677 54 51 11 -0.05556 -0.78431 Mar-02 185 5886 97.8836 101.7635 recession, rig activity fell sharply in New Mexico and North Dakota. Rig activity fell again in Oklahoma. By the fall of Oklahoma 1322020, Oklahoma 52 was 13home -0.60606 to only 13 active -0.75 rigs. The fall in production and change in rig activity, coupled with the Apr-02 190 5844 100.5291 101.0373 posture of capital markets underscores the unfortunate reality that Oklahoma’s geology may not compare as favorably as May-02 188 5905 99.4709 102.092 once thought against the alternative options for scarce drilling capital. Jun-02 184 5884 97.3545 101.7289 Jul-02 182 5751 96.2963 99.42946 Baker Hughes Active Rig Count Aug-02 181 5796 95.7672 100.2075 Sep-02 179 5411 94.70899 93.55118 140 132 Oct-02 177 5358 93.65079 92.63485 120 108 106 Nov-02 183 5624 96.8254 97.23375 100 Dec-02 170 5722 89.94709 98.92808 Jan-03 188 5755 99.4709 99.49862 80 Feb-03 171 5783 90.47619 99.98271 54 51 52 60 45 Mar-03 186 5803 98.4127 100.3285 35 40 33 Apr-03 187 5726 98.9418 98.99723 21 24 May-03 179 5663 94.70899 97.90802 20 11 13 4 2 Jun-03 178 5659 94.17989 97.83887 Average Monthly Rigs, Active 0 Jul-03 177 5498 93.65079 95.05533 New Mexico Colorado Wyoming North Dakota Oklahoma Aug-03 172 5574 91.00529 96.36929 Jan-19 Jan-20 Oct-20 Sep-03 174 5609 92.06349 96.97441 Oct-03 174 5614 92.06349 97.06086 Figure 21: Baker Hughes Active Rig Count 22 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST Nov-03 168 5547 88.88889 95.90249 Dec-03 177 5571 93.65079 96.31743 Jan-04 174 5585 92.06349 96.55947 Feb-04 173 5572 91.53439 96.33472 Mar-04 180 5617 95.2381 97.11272 Apr-04 177 5560 93.65079 96.12725 May-04 180 5556 95.2381 96.05809 Jun-04 166 5407 87.83069 93.48202 Jul-04 175 5484 92.59259 94.81328 Aug-04 177 5325 93.65079 92.06432 Sep-04 176 5081 93.12169 87.84578 Oct-04 174 5170 92.06349 89.38451 Nov-04 165 5423 87.30159 93.75864 Dec-04 179 5510 94.70899 95.26279 Jan-05 164 5446 86.77249 94.15629 Feb-05 173 5501 91.53439 95.10719 Mar-05 179 5601 94.70899 96.8361 Apr-05 176 5563 93.12169 96.17911 May-05 172 5596 91.00529 96.74965 Jun-05 145 5442 76.71958 94.08714 Jul-05 173 5253 91.53439 90.8195 Aug-05 142 5198 75.13228 89.8686 Sep-05 175 4214 92.59259 72.85615 Oct-05 173 4555 91.53439 78.75173 Nov-05 174 4857 92.06349 83.97303 Dec-05 168 4988 88.88889 86.2379 Jan-06 175 5048 92.59259 87.27524 Feb-06 169 5032 89.41799 86.99862 Mar-06 179 5027 94.70899 86.91217 Apr-06 174 5082 92.06349 87.86307 May-06 177 5151 93.65079 89.05602 Jun-06 178 5163 94.17989 89.26349 Jul-06 178 5094 94.17989 88.07054 Aug-06 175 5040 92.59259 87.13693 Sep-06 177 5031 93.65079 86.98133 Oct-06 175 5108 92.59259 88.31259 Nov-06 171 5064 90.47619 87.55187 Dec-06 181 5186 95.7672 89.66113 Jan-07 159 5108 84.12698 88.31259 Feb-07 172 5118 91.00529 88.48548 Mar-07 178 5119 94.17989 88.50277 Apr-07 179 5180 94.70899 89.5574 May-07 179 5211 94.70899 90.09336 Jun-07 172 5075 91.00529 87.74205 Jul-07 176 5038 93.12169 87.10235 Aug-07 173 4970 91.53439 85.92669 Sep-07 185 4902 97.8836 84.75104 Oct-07 146 5022 77.24868 86.82573 Nov-07 178 5034 94.17989 87.0332 Dec-07 171 5111 90.47619 88.36445 Jan-08 188 5115 99.4709 88.43361 Feb-08 165 5148 87.30159 89.00415 Mar-08 189 5189 100 89.713 Apr-08 191 5180 101.0582 89.5574 May-08 188 5143 99.4709 88.9177 Jun-08 186 5138 98.4127 88.83126 Jul-08 184 5177 97.3545 89.50553 Aug-08 188 5003 99.4709 86.49723 Sep-08 186 3974 98.4127 68.70678 Oct-08 185 4738 97.8836 81.91563 Nov-08 181 5078 95.7672 87.79391 Dec-08 176 5103 93.12169 88.22614 Jan-09 176 5144 93.12169 88.93499 Feb-09 194 5239 102.6455 90.57746 Mar-09 183 5219 96.8254 90.23167 Apr-09 186 5278 98.4127 91.25173 May-09 189 5377 100 92.96335 Jun-09 192 5269 101.5873 91.09613 Jul-09 183 5398 96.8254 93.32642 Aug-09 183 5418 96.8254 93.6722 Sep-09 186 5559 98.4127 96.10996 Oct-09 182 5524 96.2963 95.50484 Nov-09 183 5395 96.8254 93.27455 Dec-09 173 5452 91.53439 94.26003 Jan-10 167 5404 88.35979 93.43015 Feb-10 187 5553 98.9418 96.00622 Mar-10 193 5515 102.1164 95.34924 Apr-10 194 5392 102.6455 93.22268 May-10 187 5401 98.9418 93.37828 Jun-10 189 5380 100 93.01521 Jul-10 191 5298 101.0582 91.59751 Aug-10 191 5447 101.0582 94.17358 Sep-10 193 5616 102.1164 97.09544 Oct-10 197 5631 104.2328 97.35477 Nov-10 211 5576 111.6402 96.40387 Dec-10 208 5607 110.0529 96.93983 Jan-11 203 5495 107.4074 95.00346 Feb-11 179 5404 94.70899 93.43015 Mar-11 223 5615 117.9894 97.07815 Apr-11 217 5558 114.8148 96.09267 May-11 222 5623 117.4603 97.21646 Jun-11 226 5588 119.5767 96.61134 Jul-11 224 5440 118.5185 94.05256 Aug-11 225 5665 119.0476 97.9426 Sep-11 234 5614 123.8095 97.06086 Oct-11 238 5901 125.9259 102.0228 Nov-11 245 6035 129.6296 104.3396 Dec-11 244 6048 129.1005 104.5643 Jan-12 254 6171 134.3915 106.6909 Feb-12 255 6267 134.9206 108.3506 Mar-12 255 6326 134.9206 109.3707 Apr-12 262 6324 138.6243 109.3361 May-12 270 6368 142.8571 110.0968 Jun-12 260 6269 137.5661 108.3852 Jul-12 273 6424 144.4444 111.065 Aug-12 287 6349 151.8519 109.7683 Sep-12 283 6596 149.7354 114.0387 Oct-12 302 6966 159.7884 120.4357 Nov-12 302 7077 159.7884 122.3548 Dec-12 296 7099 156.6138 122.7351 Jan-13 317 7083 167.7249 122.4585 Feb-13 285 7151 150.7937 123.6342 Mar-13 316 7206 167.1958 124.5851 Apr-13 337 7372 178.3069 127.455 May-13 337 7326 178.3069 126.6598 Jun-13 343 7277 181.4815 125.8126 Jul-13 337 7524 178.3069 130.083 Aug-13 361 7532 191.0053 130.2213 Sep-13 367 7837 194.1799 135.4945 Oct-13 372 7758 196.8254 134.1286 Nov-13 348 7917 184.127 136.8776 Dec-13 348 7928 184.127 137.0678 Jan-14 381 8073 201.5873 139.5747 Feb-14 369 8152 195.2381 140.9405 Mar-14 385 8293 203.7037 143.3783 Apr-14 348 8521 184.127 147.3202 May-14 407 8644 215.3439 149.4467 Jun-14 409 8746 216.4021 151.2102 Jul-14 428 8846 226.455 152.9391 Aug-14 414 8920 219.0476 154.2185 Sep-14 433 9082 229.1005 157.0194 Oct-14 447 9263 236.5079 160.1487 Nov-14 442 9322 233.8624 161.1687 Dec-14 451 9566 238.6243 165.3873 Jan-15 449 9388 237.5661 162.3098 Feb-15 436 9510 230.6878 164.4191 Mar-15 480 9585 253.9683 165.7158 Apr-15 477 9661 252.381 167.0297 May-15 463 9481 244.9735 163.9177 Jun-15 468 9362 247.619 161.8603 Jul-15 447 9447 236.5079 163.3299 Aug-15 443 9416 234.3915 162.7939 Sep-15 453 9491 239.6825 164.0906 Oct-15 456 9406 241.2698 162.621 Nov-15 442 9337 233.8624 161.4281 Dec-15 457 9281 241.7989 160.4599 Jan-16 455 9203 240.7407 159.1113 Feb-16 408 9065 215.873 156.7254 Mar-16 428 9089 226.455 157.1404 Apr-16 416 8871 220.1058 153.3714 May-16 433 8834 229.1005 152.7317 Jun-16 426 8671 225.3968 149.9136 Jul-16 414 8664 219.0476 149.7925 Aug-16 420 8686 222.2222 150.1729 Sep-16 415 8544 219.5767 147.7178 Oct-16 425 8841 224.8677 152.8527 Nov-16 430 8906 227.5132 153.9765 Dec-16 417 8846 220.6349 152.9391 Jan-17 408 8874 215.873 153.4232 Feb-17 427 9108 225.9259 157.4689 Mar-17 442 9192 233.8624 158.9212 Apr-17 431 9115 228.0423 157.5899 May-17 433 9208 229.1005 159.1978 Jun-17 454 9134 240.2116 157.9184 Jul-17 448 9266 237.037 160.2006 Aug-17 462 9264 244.4444 160.166 Sep-17 464 9534 245.5026 164.834 Oct-17 485 9668 256.6138 167.1508 Nov-17 504 10088 266.6667 174.4122 Dec-17 496 9993 262.4339 172.7697 Jan-18 526 9998 278.3069 172.8562 Feb-18 525 10261 277.7778 177.4032 Mar-18 551 10489 291.5344 181.3451 Apr-18 533 10496 282.0106 181.4661 May-18 531 10457 280.9524 180.7918 Jun-18 507 10605 268.254 183.3506 Jul-18 530 10903 280.4233 188.5028 Aug-18 575 11384 304.2328 196.8188 Sep-18 542 11463 286.7725 198.1846 Oct-18 566 11554 299.4709 199.758 Nov-18 574 11907 303.7037 205.861 Dec-18 598 12004 316.4021 207.538 Jan-19 578 11865 305.8201 205.1349 Feb-19 569 11679 301.0582 201.9191 Mar-19 583 11937 308.4656 206.3797 Apr-19 613 12135 324.3386 209.8029 May-19 607 12163 321.164 210.287 Jun-19 545 12088 288.3598 208.9903 Jul-19 560 11819 296.2963 204.3396 Aug-19 563 12425 297.8836 214.8167 Sep-19 604 12495 319.5767 216.027 Oct-19 601 12673 317.9894 219.1044 Nov-19 577 12860 305.291 222.3375 Dec-19 562 12802 297.3545 221.3347 Jan-20 530 12755 280.4233 220.5221 Feb-20 559 12746 295.7672 220.3665 Mar-20 549 12737 290.4762 220.2109 Apr-20 492 12010 260.3175 207.6418 May-20 359 10019 189.9471 173.2192 Jun-20 459 10442 242.8571 180.5325 Jul-20 478 10980 252.9101 189.834 Aug-20 460 10579 243.3862 182.9011 Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment 680 $670.0 0.07 93 0.2 $659.1 $659.9 88 85.5 660 0.05 0.15 3.2% 83 80.2 640 0.1 0.03 76.5 1.5% $639.4 1.5% 78 4.8% 620 0.05 77.5 0.01 73 600 0 68 -0.2% -0.01 -1.2% 580 -0.05 63 -0.03 -0.1 560 -3.0% 58 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change,

% Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, -9.4% Goods Employment, Thousands

Nonfarm Employment, Thousands Employment, Nonfarm -0.05 540 53 -0.15

520 -0.07 48 -0.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Nonfarm % Change, Annual Average Goods Oklahoma City oil and gas employment was hit hard in this cycle losing nearly 8,000 jobs and 30.7% of local exploration and production jobs. Current employment levels will hold mostly steady through the first half of 2021 before adding jobs at a slow pace through the end of the year. If the global economy can turn to growth and support a base of energy demand, then job gains return in 2022 but are unlikely to return to the previous industry peak.

-0.02 13.4 448 -2.1% 0.1 -0.04 10

-0.06 Average Annual % Change, 0 398 Goods Employment, Thousands -0.08 -3.7% -0.1

% Change, Annual Average Mining (Oil and Gas) Figure 22: Oklahoma City MSA Oil and Gas Employment

Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment

39 36 35.6 0.07 35.4

37 0.09 0.06 35

35 34.2 0.05 33.9 32.8 34 33 34.1 3.8% 32.0 0.04 0.04 2.5% 33 31 32.1 0.03 0.8%

29 32 1.5% 0.02 -0.3% -0.01 27 0.7% 0.01 31 0.5% % Annual Change,

25 0 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 30 -0.06 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 23 Manufacturing Employment, Thousands Employment, Manufacturing 23 -6.0% -0.01 Financial Services Financial Services Thousands Employment, 29 21 -0.02

19 -0.11 28 -0.03 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Manufacturing % Change, Annual Average Financial Services

Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment

80 76.0 0.15 74.5 74.0

68.1 0.1 0.09 60

50 0.05 0.03 40 0.01

0 30 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 20 -0.05 Leisure Services Employment, Thousands Employment, Services Leisure

-0.09 0 -0.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Leisure Services Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment 680 $670.0 0.07 93 0.2 $659.1 $659.9 88 85.5 660 0.05 0.15 3.2% 83 80.2 640 0.1 0.03 76.5 1.5% $639.4 1.5% 78 4.8% 620 0.05 77.5 0.01 73 600 0 68 -0.2% -0.01 -1.2% 580 -0.05 63 -0.03 -0.1 560 -3.0% 58 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change,

% Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, -9.4% Goods Employment, Thousands

Nonfarm Employment, Thousands Employment, Nonfarm -0.05 540 53 -0.15

520 -0.07 48 -0.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Nonfarm % Change, Annual Average Goods

-0.02 13.4 448 -2.1% 0.1 -0.04 10

-0.06 Average Annual % Change, 0 398 Goods Employment, Thousands -0.08 -3.7% -0.1

348 -0.1 -10.7% Average Annual % Change, Mining Employment, Thousands Mining Employment, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5 -0.2 % Change, Annual Average Services -0.3 -30.7% Oklahoma City manufacturing employment peaked more than twenty years ago at more than 53,000 payroll jobs. 0 -0.4 While the sector’s contribution to regional GDP remains significant, a general substitution of capital for labor in the 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 production process is limiting the industry’s total contribution to MSA employment. Employment grew to more than 37,000 % Change, Annual Average Mining (Oil and Gas) jobs before contracting with the energy industry in 2015 and 2016. The recovery saw the industry gain back some but not all of those jobs before losing jobs again in the current contraction. As before, the industry is likely to regain some but not all of the lost jobs as it grows at a 2.5% pace in 2022 to nearly 33,000 payroll jobs.

Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment

39 36 35.6 0.07 35.4

37 0.09 0.06 35

35 34.2 0.05 33.9 32.8 34 33 34.1 3.8% 32.0 0.04 0.04 2.5% 33 31 32.1 0.03 0.8%

29 32 1.5% 0.02 -0.3% -0.01 27 0.7% 0.01 31 0.5% % Annual Change,

25 0 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 30 -0.06

Manufacturing Employment, Thousands Employment, Manufacturing 23 -6.0% -0.01 Financial Services Financial Services Thousands Employment, 29 21 -0.02

19 -0.11 28 -0.03 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Manufacturing % Change, Annual Average Financial Services Figure 23: Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment

Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment

80 76.0 0.15 74.5 74.0

68.1 0.1 0.09 60

50 0.05 0.03 40 0.01

0 30 24 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 20 -0.05 Leisure Services Employment, Thousands Employment, Services Leisure

-0.09 0 -0.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Leisure Services Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment 680 $670.0 0.07 93 0.2 $659.1 $659.9 88 85.5 660 0.05 0.15 3.2% 83 80.2 640 0.1 0.03 76.5 1.5% $639.4 1.5% 78 4.8% 620 0.05 77.5 0.01 73 600 0 68 -0.2% -0.01 -1.2% 580 -0.05 63 -0.03 -0.1 560 -3.0% 58 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change,

% Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, -9.4% Goods Employment, Thousands

Nonfarm Employment, Thousands Employment, Nonfarm -0.05 540 53 -0.15

520 -0.07 48 -0.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Nonfarm % Change, Annual Average Goods

-0.02 13.4 448 -2.1% 0.1 -0.04 10

-0.06 Average Annual % Change, 0 398 Goods Employment, Thousands -0.08 -3.7% -0.1

348 -0.1 -10.7% Average Annual % Change, Mining Employment, Thousands Mining Employment, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5 -0.2 % Change, Annual Average Services -0.3 -30.7% In contrast0 to the declining role of the manufacturing industry, the financial services sector is a high value-added industry-0.4 that is growing2011 in employment. 2012 2013 The financial 2014 2015services 2016sector is 2017larger both 2018 in employment 2019 2020 and contribution 2021 2022 to GDP than the manufacturing industry and stands out as a source of strength in a rapidly diversifying Oklahoma City economy. Even amid the pandemic, the industry added% Change, jobs (0.7% Annual growth Average in 2020) and Mining is poised (Oil to and do Gas) so again in 2021. By the end of the forecast period, financial services employment will approach 36,000 jobs and, potentially, a base of strength that could shape the future economic identity of the regional economy.

Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment

39 36 35.6 0.07 35.4

37 0.09 0.06 35

35 34.2 0.05 33.9 32.8 34 33 34.1 3.8% 32.0 0.04 0.04 2.5% 33 31 32.1 0.03 0.8%

29 32 1.5% 0.02 -0.3% -0.01 27 0.7% 0.01 31 0.5% % Annual Change,

25 0 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 30 -0.06

Manufacturing Employment, Thousands Employment, Manufacturing 23 -6.0% -0.01 Financial Services Financial Services Thousands Employment, 29 21 -0.02

19 -0.11 28 -0.03 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Manufacturing % Change, Annual Average Financial Services Figure 24: Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment

Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment

80 76.0 0.15 74.5 74.0

68.1 0.1 0.09 60

50 0.05 0.03 40 0.01

0 30 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 25 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 20 -0.05 Leisure Services Employment, Thousands Employment, Services Leisure

-0.09 0 -0.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Leisure Services Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment 680 $670.0 0.07 93 0.2 $659.1 $659.9 88 85.5 660 0.05 0.15 3.2% 83 80.2 640 0.1 0.03 76.5 1.5% $639.4 1.5% 78 4.8% 620 0.05 77.5 0.01 73 600 0 68 -0.2% -0.01 -1.2% 580 -0.05 63 -0.03 -0.1 560 -3.0% 58 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change,

% Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, -9.4% Goods Employment, Thousands

Nonfarm Employment, Thousands Employment, Nonfarm -0.05 540 53 -0.15

520 -0.07 48 -0.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Nonfarm % Change, Annual Average Goods

-0.02 13.4 448 -2.1% 0.1 -0.04 10

-0.06 Average Annual % Change, 0 398 Goods Employment, Thousands -0.08 -3.7% -0.1

% Change, Annual Average Mining (Oil and Gas)

Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment

39 36 35.6 0.07 35.4

37 0.09 0.06 35

35 34.2 0.05 33.9 32.8 34 33 34.1 3.8% 32.0 0.04 0.04 2.5% 33 31 32.1 0.03 0.8%

29 32 1.5% 0.02 -0.3% -0.01 27 0.7% 0.01 31 0.5% % Annual Change,

25 0 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 30 -0.06

Manufacturing Employment, Thousands Employment, Manufacturing 23 -6.0% -0.01 Financial Services Financial Services Thousands Employment, 29 In contrast21 to financial services, leisure services are a relatively low value-added industry with high employment levels. -0.02 Growth in leisure services, including arts, hospitality and food services, follows directly gains in population and income. As population19 gains continue and assuming a pandemic exit yields again to the propensity for density, leisure services-0.11 will 28 -0.03 return to annual2011 growth 2012 of 3% 2013 to 4%. 2014 The exit 2015 from the 2016 pandemic 2017 economy 2018 to one 2019 that 2020favors density, 2021 social 2022 nearness and 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 joint consumption is unlikely to be either quick or smooth. Job growth will recover in 2021 and grow modestly in 2022 at % Change, Annual Average Manufacturing 2.7% to more than 76,000 jobs. Only in the years beyond will the new economic normal resemble enough the previous % Change, Annual Average Financial Services normal to move leisure employment back to its long-run trend consistent with regional gains in population, density and income. Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment

80 76.0 0.15 74.5 74.0

68.1 0.1 0.09 60

50 0.05 0.03 40 0.01

0 30 % Change, Annual Average Annual % Change, 20 -0.05 Leisure Services Employment, Thousands Employment, Services Leisure

-0.09 0 -0.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

% Change, Annual Average Leisure Services Figure 25: Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment

26 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST DIGITAL MARKETING simplified

405.456.9507 visit wsi-summit.com/chamber to receive a free site assessment

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 27 The social and economic challenges posed by a global virus pandemic remain acute, yet hope is building that a successful vaccine distribution aided by warmer weather CONCLUSION encouraging outside (and distanced) activities could permanently bend the curve of new cases. The hope extends to a return to social consumption in retail, travel, As we emerge from the pandemic, the true strength the arts and other industries. In short, there is faint but real of Oklahoma’s economy will be revealed. There hope that 2021 brings a feeling of economic normalcy. can be no doubt that some state assets remain. Normal will not mean an instantaneous return to all pre- Economic geography will continue to pull pandemic behaviors. Many economic behaviors will linger, population and economic activity to the Oklahoma as will the influence of economic policies. But normal may City MSA and should be joined by a continuation mean an economy that is largely free (perhaps by the of the recent strength in the Tulsa MSA but second half of the year) of formal restrictions on economic headwinds remain. Rural areas will continue to face gatherings. economic pressures as there remains no clear path for oil prices or drilling activity to quickly rebound. In short, a return to a feeling of economic normalcy does not ensure a return to a feeling of unbridled economic strength. The year ahead offers a unique mix of hope and concern. Baseline expectations are that economic activity holds steady through some challenging months early in the year. From there, a transition to pre-pandemic levels of activity will proceed slowly. Many metrics will not return to pre-pandemic peaks until well into 2022. Faint though it may be, hope is a welcomed sentiment, even if it is forced to yield to the harsh reality of a difficult path ahead.

2020 Announcements The Greater Oklahoma City region was the beneficiary of several new-to-market announcements and significant expansions in 2020. A select group of those announcements are described below. May 2020 brought news of Costco considering Oklahoma City for a back-office / financial services operation that would employ more than 1,000. That ultimately culminated in expanded projections of 1,503 new jobs for the Costco Member Services Center over the next five years and the purchase of the former 234,000-square- foot Hertz call center location at 14501 Hertz Quail Springs Parkway in Oklahoma City. Jobs include agents, clerks, administrators, computer and other technical experts, trainers, quality technicians, supervisors and managers. Part-time and seasonal employment opportunities will also be available.

28 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST Hawaii’s North Star Scientific Corporation (NSS) announced an expansion to Oklahoma City, starting with five employees and plans for 40 jobs at the facility once operations ramp up. NSS designs, develops and qualifies state of the art electronic systems for Department of Defense applications and delivers reliable high-performance products and services. They specialize in radar frequency systems designs and rapid research & development/custom solutions. Their offices are located in the Valliance Bank Tower on Northwest Expressway. Amazon also announced plans in December to open a new fulfillment center in 2021, creating more than 500 new full-time OKC jobs in the process. The new facility on S Portland Ave. will have the capacity to serve as a “last-mile” location and handle larger items. Amazon now employs approximately 5,000 people in Oklahoma City. In June, Skydweller Aero Inc. selected OKC for its U.S. corporate headquarters, with plans for 120 engineering and field tech jobs in OKC, along with testing facilities in Ardmore. The company is involved in producing solar-powered perpetual endurance unmanned aircraft. Other aerospace news in 2020 included expansion plans from Kratos, which produces unmanned aircraft for the U.S. military. In July, the company announced the award of a five-year indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity contract valued at up to $400 million for the development, integration and prototype air vehicle delivery in support of the U.S. Air Force’s Skyborg program, with much of the work to be done in Kratos’ OKC facility. Malarkey Roofing Products announced that it will be adding 105 jobs and additional capital investment to its existing facility to address growing business demand. Malarkey is a manufacturer of high-performance residential and commercial roofing products.Heartland Payment Systems, Paycom and Boeing are a few additional existing companies in Oklahoma City to have added or announced plans to add jobs in 2020.

Retail Successes For the seven-county Oklahoma City metropolitan area, 2020 total taxable retail sales decreased by 5.5% from 2019 totals. This follows three consecutive years of positive year-over-year percent increases. At approximately $22.6 billion, the Oklahoma City metro accounts for more than 43% of the taxable retail sales for the entire state of Oklahoma and 36% of the state’s population. This continues to make the Oklahoma City metro a driving force for retail trade in the state. Destination retail strategies and shop local campaigns continue to be important to produce increased sales tax revenue for the Oklahoma City region. For FY 2020 (July 2019 to June 2020 remittance), sales tax collections for the City of Oklahoma City were relatively flat, down slightly at 1.1% over the prior year. For the last half of CY 2020 (July 2020 to December 2020), sales tax collections remained below the prior year for the City of Oklahoma City, but use tax collections increased considerably primarily driven by online retail sales. Sales tax collections by surrounding cities in the metro increased in the second half of 2020 as a result of more people shopping closer to their homes. Cities seeing increases include Norman, Edmond, Moore, Midwest City and Yukon. This follows national trends of suburban communities temporarily benefiting from changes in commuting patterns related to work-from-home policies and fewer opportunities to visit destination retail establishments offered by core cities. Per the Price Edwards 2020 OKC Year End

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 29 Retail Market Summary, retail vacancy in the Oklahoma City market increased to 9.7% at year end, up slightly from 8.7% a year ago and 9.2% at mid-year 2020. A few select retailers that announced or opened in the Oklahoma City metro in 2020 include Chicken N Pickle, Homeland, Scooter’s Coffee, Blue Zoo, Round1 Bowling & Amusement, Chicken Foot, HTeaO, Phat Tire Bike Shop, Costco, Edmond Railyard, Park 17, Old Navy, Aldi Grocery, Nashbird, Pinkitzels, Shell Belle’s Bakery, Tavola Restaurant, Commonspace Game Café and Oklahoma Axe Factory.

Methodology Comments The Greater Oklahoma City Economic Forecast is undertaken through cooperation with Oklahoma City University and the Center for Regional Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. The forecast is an econometric exercise and is not a consensus forecast of business and civic leaders. All models are constructed from publicly available data sources including datasets from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. The forecasts are entirely determined by the past information contained in the dataset and the econometric specification of the models. No attempt has been made to “adjust” the forecast for the beliefs or anticipation of the modeler. For example, construction forecasts are not adjusted to reflect the anticipated impact of large, announced public sector investments. The forecast does not take into account anticipated growth from relocations or “new-to-market” firms. In addition, announced expansions of existing companies may take place over a multi-year timeframe and not be fully recognized in the next year. Announced projects that have not taken place are not reflected in forecasted job numbers. The reader is encouraged to treat the forecast as a baseline from which to make their own adjustments and ultimately reach their own conclusion.

30 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

2.8 2.3 4.5 2.1 0.3 3.0 4.7 - 66.6 15.9 71.9 2022 1298

151.3

1.9 2.1 1.6 5.0 0.7 0.4 5.7 - - 59.6 15.8 71.1 2021 1357

147.5

2.6 2.5 4.2 1.0 5.4 8.1 - - - - - 10.0 69.7 14.4 69.6 2020 1362 -

142.4

2.3 2.5 1.4 1.6 3.0 1.2 3.7 - 41.3 17.0 75.6 2019 1295

150.9

2.5 2.4 6.5 3.9 1.5 2.2 3.9 - 45.4 17.2 76.6 2018 1248

148.9

2.7 2.9 4.8 4.7 1.1 2.5 4.4 13.4 17.1 75.1 2017 1207

146.6

2.1 2.7 1.8 4.2 1.5 0.3 4.9 20.9 17.5 74.2 2016 1177

144.3

2.2 3.1 0.1 9.2 2.2 1.7 5.3 - - 17.4 75.3 2015 1107 117.0 141.8 2022

2.9 3.8 6.9 7.7 0.3 1.4 6.2 73.4 16.5 75.2 2014 1000 138.9

2.6 1.9 5.4 7.1 2.4 1.1 7.4 928 - 92.4 15.5 74.4 2013 136.4

1.5 1.6 5.6 2.1 1.4 8.1 784 - 15.4 60.5 14.4 74.5 2012 134.2

U.S. Economic Outlook, 2021 Employment and Industrial Activity

Major Components of Real GDP

Gross DomesticGross Product: Growth and Components annual) change, (% product domestic gross Real Personal expenditures consumption (% change, annual) change,Nonresidentialannual) fixed(% investment Residential (%change, investment annual) billions) ($ Change privatein inventories change,annual) (% grossGov'tand consumption investment (thousands) starts housing Private (millions) Lightsales vehicle Manufacturing Production (% change, annual) CapacityManufacturing(%) Utilization (millions) Nonfarmemployment payroll Civilian unemploymentrate (%) Source: Macroadvisers by IHS Markit; Steven C. Economic Agee Research and Policy Institute APPENDIX A: U.S. OUTLOOK APPENDIXTABLES U.S. OUTLOOK A:

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 31

2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.0 0.1 1.2 2.0 8.6 2022 52.61 55.88 1062.8 -

2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 0.3 2.1 0.1 1.0 1.3 9.4 - - 2021 43.91 46.73 1699.1 -

1.2 1.8 1.2 1.6 5.8 2.3 0.4 0.9 2.1 15.7 2020 38.56 41.00 3131.9 -

2.0 2.3 1.5 1.6 3.3 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.6 7.6 2019 56.98 64.34 984.4 -

2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.6 1.2 1.8 2.9 3.7 7.9 2018 64.89 70.96 779.0 -

2.1 1.8 1.8 1.7 4.3 1.2 1.0 2.3 3.4 7.2 2017 50.96 54.83 665.8 -

1.8 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.4 1.8 1.8 6.8 2016 43.21 44.24 587.3 - 2022 -

0.4 2.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 1.0 0.1 2.1 3.1 7.6 2015 48.69 52.68 436.5 -

1.2 1.7 1.1 1.5 3.2 0.5 0.1 2.5 5.3 7.3 2014 Rates Deficit and the 93.26 99.83 483.4

1.2 1.7 1.2 1.6 0.3 1.5 0.1 2.4 2.5 6.4 - - 2013 97.94 680.2 - 108.74

1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 5.7 0.3 0.1 1.8 4.9 8.9 U.S. Economic Outlook, 2021 Income, Interest 2012 94.20 111.77 1089.2 -

Economic Research and Policy Institute

Yr Treasury Notes (%) Notes Treasury Yr -

Prices, Productivity, and Costs (% change) Consumerallitems index, price energy) (excluding& food CoreCPI expenditures,index Personalprice consumption index price Core PCE Compensationper hour Outputper hour ($/barrel) crude WTI Priceoil of ($/barrel) crude Brent Price oil of rate funds Federal Yieldon 10 Real disposable personal income(%change, annual) (%) rate saving Personal bil) $ budget Unified(FY, federal Source: Macroadvisers by IHS Markit; Steven C. Agee

32 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

5.4% 4.9% 0.7% 4.2% 6.6% 2022 $44,952 $78,163 $195,785 $181,055 4,027,698

1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% - - 2021 6.0% 4.8% 0.6% 4.2% 6.4% $43,125 $73,347 $185,776 $172,550 4,001,123 $45,573 $79,852 $200,777 $183,915 2022:Q4 4,035,603

7.1% 3.3% 0.4% 2.8% 4.7% - - 5.6% 5.3% 0.7% 4.6% 6.9% 2020 $43,564 $72,373 $45,131 $78,685 $183,934 $173,162 $197,419 $181,923 2022:Q3 3,974,913 4,031,029

5.0% 5.1% 0.7% 4.4% 6.8% 2.4% 2.0% 0.4% 1.6% 2.0% $44,703 $77,531 2019 $42,369 $75,921 $192,759 $179,945 2022:Q2 4,025,317 $197,900 $167,670 3,957,396

4.8% 4.5% 0.7% 3.8% 6.1% 2.7% 2.9% 0.2% 2.6% 3.0% $44,400 $76,585 $192,185 $178,436 2022:Q1 4,018,844 2018 $41,712 $74,453 $193,205 $164,419 3,941,713

4.0% 3.3% 0.7% 2.5% 4.9%

$43,742 $75,026 $189,351 $175,481 0.0% 3.0% 0.2% 2.8% 1.5% 2021:Q4 4,011,729 2017 $40,646 $72,261

$188,157 $159,837 3,932,409

1.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.9% 3.2%

$43,149 $73,592 GDP $186,897 $172,797 2021:Q3 4,004,624 2.7% 6.3% 0.4% 6.7% 3.3% - - - -

2016

$39,541 $71,160 $188,063 $155,216 3,925,407 4.1% 0.6% 1.5% 7.5% 8.1% - -

$42,818 $72,614 $183,543 $171,166 2021:Q2

3,997,516 3.7% 3.4% 0.7% 4.1% 0.8%

- -

2015 $42,400 $73,621 $193,238 $165,710 3,908,282 1.9% 0.6% 1.3% 5.3% 4.0% - - $42,789 $72,157

$183,316 $170,755 2021:Q1 3,990,622

Income, Population, and

5.3% 4.7% 0.7% 4.0% 2.9% 2014 $44,203 $73,068 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 7.6% 4.9% $186,307 $171,498 - - 3,879,746 $42,656 $71,522 $182,149 $169,919 2020:Q4 3,983,481

Quarterly

Oklahoma Income, Population, and GDP (Annual) Oklahoma GDP and Population, Income, 2.1% 3.3% 0.9% 2.4% 1.6% 1.5% 0.4% 1.1% 7.4% 5.6% 2013 - - $42,512 $71,030 $176,863 $163,782 $42,774 $71,315 3,852,580 $183,823 $170,098 2020:Q3 3,976,651 Oklahoma

0.4% 5.7% - 10.9% 10.6% 10.1% 2012 - $41,507 $69,892 $46,574 $71,517 $176,264 $184,980

$173,239 $158,559 2020:Q2 3,971,728 3,820,030

0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.9% 2.6% - - - -

$42,253 $75,138 $193,501 $167,651 2020:Q1 3,967,791

Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth

Q4/Q4Growth Q4/Q4Growth Q4/Q4Growth Q4/Q4Growth Q4/Q4Growth ($ Mil) ($

GDP

Quarter Real RealPersonal ($ Income Mil) Population Real CapitaPer Personal Income RealNonfarm Wageand Salary Mil) ($ Real ($ GDP Mil) Mil) ($ RealIncome Personal Population CapitaPersonalReal Per Income Mil) ($ Salary and Wage Nonfarm Real APPENDIX B: OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK TABLES

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 33

37.5 80.5 55.5 71.9 11.7 60.2 2022 2022 2.3% 2.7% 5.0% 1.8% 4.2% 2.9% 1.7% 2.1% 0.3% 5.0% 3.1% 246.2 128.2 303.4 176.0 15.0% 1,680.4 1,328.1 1,434.2

54.4 68.5 11.4 57.1 2021 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 4.5% 2.9% 32.6 77.3 298.2 175.4 - 2021 0.7% 0.8% 3.7% 1.5% 0.0% 4.1% 234.4 124.6 - - 10.1% - 1,642.6 1,293.5 1,408.2

54.6 65.5 11.0 54.5 2020 2.0% 5.7% 0.7% 2.4% 1.2% 295.2 175.1 - - - - 36.2 77.3 2020 4.2% 5.0% 3.0% 6.5% 7.7% 243.5 130.0 - - - - - 10.5% 25.7% - - 1,631.4 1,283.4 1,388.0

57.9 67.1 10.9 56.2 2019 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 4.6% 1.6% 301.3 176.3 - 48.7 82.6 2019 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 7.8% 2.8% 1.5% 272.1 140.8 - 1,703.4 1,350.3 1,431.3

57.5 64.2 10.7 53.4 2018 1.0% 1.3% 0.6% 5.5% 0.2% 299.8 178.2 - 52.8 80.4 2018 1.6% 2.1% 4.8% 1.0% 9.9% 3.6% 3.6% 271.9 138.6 1,689.1 1,340.7 1,417.3

56.8 60.8 10.7 50.1 2017 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% 296.8 179.2 - - -

48.1 77.5 2017 0.5% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 8.9% 0.0% 0.5% 259.4 133.8 -

1,662.5 1,313.3 1,403.1 56.5 59.2 11.1 48.1 2016

0.4% 3.4% 0.3% 0.5% 7.1% 299.5 183.8 - - - 44.2 77.5 2016 0.9% 1.2% 6.8% 0.3% 0.0% 5.8%

256.1 134.4 - - - - 18.7% - 1,653.5 1,301.2 1,397.3 58.5 58.9 11.9 47.0 2015 1.8% 1.6% 2.5% 3.2% 0.6% 300.6 183.2 - -

54.4 77.6

2015 0.7% 0.7% 2.8% 1.4% 2.8% 1.4% 274.7 142.8 - - 12.6% - 1,667.9 1,316.7 1,393.2 59.5 57.1 12.0 45.1 2014 2.5% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.3% 295.4 178.8

62.2 75.5 2014 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.2% 3.5% 0.9% 1.7% 282.5 144.8 1,656.4 1,308.1 1,374.0 57.9 55.3 11.7 43.6 2013 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 4.9% 0.5% 288.3 175.1

Oklahoma Employment Outlook by Sector OklahomaOutlook Employment by Sector OklahomaOutlook Employment

60.1 74.8 2013 1.3% 1.6% 2.2% 1.1% 2.5% 6.1% 0.1% 277.3 142.4 56.7 52.7 11.7 41.1 2012 1,635.3 1,286.7 1,358.0 2.8% 3.6% 1.5% 6.1% 3.7% 282.6 173.2

58.6 70.5 2012 2.3% 2.7% 5.7% 1.6% 3.2% 4.2% 54.7 49.7 11.2 38.5 271.4 142.4 2011 1.9% 3.1% 1.1% 3.1% 0.7% 13.0% 275.0 170.6 1,614.1 1,266.9 1,342.7

51.8 68.3 2011 1.4% 2.2% 6.6% 0.4% 1.9% 5.1% 256.8 136.6 18.1% 1,577.7 1,233.8 1,320.9

Change,Annual Avg.

% Change, AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. % AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg.

% Change, AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. Industry/Year Nonfarm Private Goods Services Gas)Mining(Oiland Construction Manufacturing Industry/Year Utilities Transport, Trade, Wholesale Trade Trade Retail Transport,Warehouse, Utilities Utilities Warehouse and Transport

34 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

37.5 80.5 55.5 71.9 11.7 60.2 17.9 82.1 75.8 20.2 93.7 16.5 16.9 69.4 2022 2022 2022 2.3% 2.7% 5.0% 1.8% 4.2% 2.9% 1.7% 2.1% 0.3% 5.0% 3.1% 5.3% 0.8% 1.2% 4.0% 3.1% 3.7% 4.8% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 2.9% 8.1% 2.3% 246.2 128.2 303.4 176.0 189.6 237.6 221.0 181.9 165.1 - 15.0% 1,680.4 1,328.1 1,434.2

16.3 15.6 67.3 54.4 68.5 11.4 57.1 18.1 81.2 73.5 19.4 89.4 2021 2021 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 8.4% 8.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 4.5% 2.9% 4.9% 4.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 1.8% 32.6 77.3 235.1 218.8 176.9 161.3 298.2 175.4 182.3 - - - - - 2021 0.7% 0.8% 3.7% 1.5% 0.0% 4.1% 12.8% 234.4 124.6 - - 10.1% - 1,642.6 1,293.5 1,408.2

54.6 65.5 11.0 54.5 18.9 79.5 73.7 19.6 87.8 16.7 13.8 67.7 2020 2.0% 5.7% 0.7% 2.4% 1.2% 3.1% 3.5% 0.1% 6.6% 1.8% 2.5% 2020 295.2 175.1 181.1 1.9% 0.5% 6.6% 4.7% 234.4 217.8 163.2 149.3 ------11.0% - - - - 36.2 77.3 16.4% 23.2% 2020 - 4.2% 5.0% 3.0% 6.5% 7.7% - - 243.5 130.0 - - - - - 10.5% 25.7% - - 1,631.4 1,283.4 1,388.0

57.9 67.1 10.9 56.2 19.6 79.4 75.0 20.1 98.7 19.9 18.0 70.6 2019 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 4.6% 1.6% 5.1% 1.5% 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 4.0% 0.4% 2019 301.3 176.3 193.8 1.1% 0.1% 1.2% 1.7% 2.7% 1.6% 238.8 218.9 174.7 156.6 - - - 48.7 82.6 2019 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 7.8% 2.8% 1.5% 272.1 140.8 - 1,703.4 1,350.3 1,431.3

57.5 64.2 10.7 53.4 19.9 79.1 73.1 19.3 99.1 19.9 17.6 70.5 2018 1.0% 1.3% 0.6% 5.5% 0.2% 6.7% 2.8% 0.4% 2.8% 3.8% 2.7% 2.1% 2018 299.8 178.2 191.4 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 2.5% 2.9% 2.5% 236.3 216.4 171.7 154.2 - - 52.8 80.4 2018 1.6% 2.1% 4.8% 1.0% 9.9% 3.6% 3.6% 271.9 138.6 1,689.1 1,340.7 1,417.3

56.8 60.8 10.7 50.1 20.5 78.9 70.4 18.8 97.0 19.7 17.1 68.7 2017 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% 4.1% 3.3% 0.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 3.3% 2017 296.8 179.2 186.2 0.7% 1.2% 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 1.4% - - - - 235.3 215.6 167.5 150.5 -

48.1 77.5 2017 0.5% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 8.9% 0.0% 0.5% 259.4 133.8 -

1,662.5 1,313.3 1,403.1 56.5 59.2 11.1 48.1 21.2 78.8 69.6 18.8 93.9 20.0 16.9 64.3 2016

0.4% 3.4% 0.3% 0.5% 7.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.9% 2.8% 299.5 183.8 182.2 2016 0.9% 0.1% 1.0% 2.0% 3.3% 1.9% ------233.8 213.8 165.3 148.3 44.2 77.5 2016 0.9% 1.2% 6.8% 0.3% 0.0% 5.8%

256.1 134.4

- - - - 18.7% - 1,653.5 1,301.2 1,397.3 58.5 58.9 11.9 47.0 21.2 79.5 69.6 18.6 96.6 20.0 16.4 62.4 2015 1.8% 1.6% 2.5% 3.2% 0.6% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 300.6 183.2 184.8 2015 1.5% 1.1% 1.6% 3.7% 8.5% 3.1% - - - - 231.6 211.6 162.0 145.6

54.4 77.6

2015

0.7% 0.7% 2.8% 1.4% 2.8% 1.4% 274.7 142.8 - - 12.6% - 1,667.9 1,316.7 1,393.2 59.5 57.1 12.0 45.1 21.2 79.5 68.3 18.3 98.4 2014 19.7 15.1 60.1 2.5% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.3% 3.4% 2.7% 0.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 295.4 178.8 185.0 2014 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 2.9% 1.6% 3.0% - 228.1 208.4 156.2 141.1

62.2 75.5 2014 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.2% 3.5% 0.9% 1.7% 282.5 144.8 1,656.4 1,308.1 1,374.0 57.9 55.3 11.7 43.6 21.8 78.9 67.5 18.1 96.2 2013 19.4 14.9 59.1 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 4.9% 0.5% 6.2% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.6% 1.8% 0.3% 288.3 175.1 181.8 2013 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 3.0% 2.5% 3.1% - 227.7 208.3 151.9 137.0

Oklahoma Employment Outlook by Sector OklahomaOutlook Employment by Sector OklahomaOutlook Employment by Sector OklahomaOutlook Employment

60.1 74.8 2013 1.3% 1.6% 2.2% 1.1% 2.5% 6.1% 0.1% 277.3 142.4 56.7 52.7 11.7 41.1 22.5 78.2 66.4 17.8 95.9 2012 19.2 14.5 58.6 1,635.3 1,286.7 1,358.0 2.8% 3.6% 1.5% 6.1% 3.7% 6.7% 2.5% 0.7% 2.1% 2.5% 5.5% 1.2% 282.6 173.2 180.1 2012 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% 3.0% 1.6% 3.2% - 226.2 207.0 147.4 132.9

58.6 70.5 2012 2.3% 2.7% 5.7% 1.6% 3.2% 4.2% 54.7 49.7 11.2 38.5 23.0 77.6 64.8 16.9 94.7 271.4 142.4 2011 19.0 14.3 58.8 1.9% 3.1% 1.1% 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% 5.0% 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 3.8% 2.3% 13.0% 275.0 170.6 176.4 2011 0.6% 3.3% 0.4% 2.9% 0.7% 3.3% - - 223.1 204.1 143.1 128.8 1,614.1 1,266.9 1,342.7 -

51.8 68.3 2011 1.4% 2.2% 6.6% 0.4% 1.9% 5.1%

256.8 136.6 18.1%

1,577.7 1,233.8 1,320.9

Change,Annual Avg. Change,Annual Avg.

% Change, AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. % AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. % AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. % Change, AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. Services Food & modation AnnualChange, % Avg.

m % Change, AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. Industry/Year Nonfarm Private Goods Services Gas)Mining(Oiland Construction Manufacturing Industry/Year Utilities Transport, Trade, Wholesale Trade Trade Retail Transport,Warehouse, Utilities Utilities Warehouse and Transport Information FinancialServices Services & Business Professional ScientificServices Management Administrative& Support Industry/Year Ed & Health Education HealthServices Services Leisure ArtsRecreation and Acco OtherServices

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 35

4.9% 1.1% 3.8% 5.4% 3.2% 17.9 82.1 75.8 20.2 93.7 16.5 16.9 69.4 50.9 79.6 2022 5.3% 0.8% 1.2% 4.0% 3.1% 3.7% 4.8% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 2.9% 8.1% 2.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 189.6 237.6 221.0 181.9 165.1 352.2 221.8 - - $50,393 $949.08 2022 1,447,329 $72,934,711 $79,298,707

16.3 15.6 67.3 50.6 79.7 18.1 81.2 73.5 19.4 89.4 2021 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 8.4% 8.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 4.9% 4.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 1.8% 235.1 218.8 176.9 161.3 349.1 218.7 182.3

------12.8% 2.7% 0.9% 3.6% 1.8% 1.1% - - $48,567 $919.69 2021 1,431,582

$69,527,846 $75,235,965 18.9 79.5 73.7 19.6 87.8 16.7 13.8 67.7 51.1 79.7 3.1% 3.5% 0.1% 6.6% 1.8% 2.5%

2020 181.1 1.9% 0.5% 6.6% 4.7% 4.1% 1.4% 2.6% 1.8% 2.2% 234.4 217.8 163.2 149.3 348.1 217.3 - - - - - 11.0% ------16.4% 23.2% - - -

3.8% 0.7% 3.1% 6.8% 1.1% - $50,364 $909.64

2020

1,418,813 $71,457,191 $73,905,663 19.6 79.4 75.0 20.1 98.7 19.9 18.0 70.6 49.8 81.1 5.1% 1.5% 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 4.0% 0.4% 2019 193.8 1.1% 0.1% 1.2% 1.7% 2.7% 1.6% 0.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 2.0% 238.8 218.9 174.7 156.6 353.1 222.2 - -

3.8% 1.1% 2.6% 1.2% 6.7%

$48,860 $900.12 2019 1,408,950 19.9 79.1 73.1 19.3 99.1 19.9 17.6 70.5 49.2 81.5 6.7% 2.8% 0.4% 2.8% 3.8% 2.7% 2.1% 2018 191.4 $68,841,224 $79,297,922 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 2.5% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 0.2% 1.3% 2.1% 0.2% 236.3 216.4 171.7 154.2 348.5 217.8 - - -

4.3% 0.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.0%

20.5 78.9 70.4 18.8 97.0 19.7 17.1 68.7 48.5 83.3 $47,607 $843.44 4.1% 3.3% 0.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 3.3% 2017 186.2 2018 0.7% 1.2% 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 1.4% 6.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 0.8% - 235.3 215.6 167.5 150.5 349.2 217.4 1,393,605 - - - -

$66,345,545 $78,390,780

housands) 21.2 78.8 69.6 18.8 93.9

t 20.0 16.9 64.3 48.1 84.9 2.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.9% 2.8% 4.2% 0.6% 3.5% 0.2% 8.4% 182.2 2016 0.9% 0.1% 1.0% 2.0% 3.3% 1.9% 3.0% 0.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% - - - - 233.8 213.8 165.3 148.3 352.3 219.2 - $46,034 $827.03 2017 1,381,492

$63,595,536 $76,091,701

21.2 79.5 69.6 18.6 96.6 20.0 16.4 62.4 46.9 85.6 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 184.8 2015 1.5% 1.1% 1.6% 3.7% 8.5% 3.1% 3.7% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.1% - - 231.6 211.6 162.0 145.6 351.2 218.7 -

0.8% 1.2% 1.9% 1.4% 3.0% - - - $44,458 $762.68

2016

1,372,985 $61,039,624 $75,905,375 21.2 79.5 68.3 18.3 98.4 19.7 15.1 60.1 46.3 85.8 3.4% 2.7% 0.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 185.0 2014 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 2.9% 1.6% 3.0% 1.7% 0.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% - 228.1 208.4 156.2 141.1 348.4 216.3

- - -

2.5% 1.6% 0.9% 6.8% 2.6%

- $45,323 $740.67 2015 1,357,178 21.8 78.9 67.5 18.1 96.2 19.4 14.9 59.1 47.1 86.3 6.2% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.6% 1.8% 0.3% 181.8 2013 $61,511,862 $76,978,757 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 3.0% 2.5% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 0.2% 1.3% - 227.7 208.3 151.9 137.0 348.6 215.1 - -

Oklahoma Employment Outlook by Sector OklahomaOutlook Employment

6.0% 1.2% 4.7% 4.3% 1.1% Oklahoma City Employment Outlook( Employment OklahomaCity - 22.5 78.2 66.4 17.8 95.9 19.2 14.5 58.6 48.4 86.4 $44,924 $760.07 6.7% 2.5% 0.7% 2.1% 2.5% 5.5% 1.2% 180.1 2012 Oklahoma City MSA Income, Population, and Earnings Population,and MSA Income, OklahomaCity 2014 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% 3.0% 1.6% 3.2% 0.4% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% - 226.2 207.0 147.4 132.9 347.2 212.4 1,336,256 - - $60,029,999 $72,107,701

23.0 77.6 64.8 16.9 94.7

19.0 14.3 58.8 49.1 84.8 3.8% 5.0% 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 3.8% 2.3% 176.4 2.9% 1.7% 1.1% 3.8% 1.2% 2011 0.6% 3.3% 0.4% 2.9% 0.7% 3.3% 2.9% 1.3% 2.6% 1.3% 2.0% - - - 223.1 204.1 143.1 128.8 343.9 209.9 - - - - - $42,900 $768.91 2013 1,320,148 $56,634,702 $69,128,384

5.7% 1.6% 4.0% 6.1% 10.3% $42,418 $778.56 2012 1,297,857

$55,052,398 $66,628,928

($ Thou)

Change,Annual Avg.

GDP

% % AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg.

% Change, AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. Services Food & modation AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg.

m Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual

Information FinancialServices Services & Business Professional ScientificServices Management Administrative& Support Industry/Year Ed & Health Education HealthServices Services Leisure ArtsRecreation and Acco OtherServices Government Federal State Local ($ Income Personal Thou) Population Per Capita Pers. Income Real Metro Average Weekly Earnings APPENDIX C: OKLAHOMA CITY OUTLOOK TABLES

36 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

5.9

4.9% 1.1% 3.8% 5.4% 3.2% 50.9 79.6 80.2 15.1 32.2 32.8 21.6 69.5 25.9 35.6 2022 2022 3.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 4.8% 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% 0.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 352.2 221.8 670.0 538.1 587.1 116.9 - - - $50,393 $949.08 17.5% 2022 1,447,329 $72,934,711 $79,298,707

6.0 50.6 79.7 21.1 69.7 25.7 35.4 76.5 12.9 31.7 32.0 2021 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 1.6% 2.5% 3.4% 0.4% 7.4% 3.8% 349.1 218.7 2021 116.5

3.2% 3.8% 1.2% 3.0% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% - - - - 659.9 529.5 578.4 - - - - 2.7% 0.9% 3.6% 1.8% 1.1% - - $48,567 $919.69 2021 1,431,582

$69,527,846 $75,235,965 6.4 21.7 67.4 25.6 34.1 51.1 79.7 2020 77.5 13.4 32.0 32.1

0.3% 9.9% 2.9% 3.2% 9.0% 0.7% 114.7 4.1% 1.4% 2.6% 1.8% 2.2% 2020 348.1 217.3 3.0% 3.5% 9.4% 2.1% 0.3% 6.0% - - 639.4 510.4 561.6 ------30.7% -

3.8% 0.7% 3.1% 6.8% 1.1% -

$50,364 $909.64 2020

1,418,813 7.1 24.0 65.5 24.8 33.9 $71,457,191 $73,905,663 2019 1.4% 0.1% 1.2% 4.0% 1.5% 114.3 - - 49.8 81.1 10.1% 85.5 19.3 32.1 34.2 0.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 2.0% 2019 353.1 222.2 1.5% 1.5% 0.2% 1.7% 6.2% 0.8%

- 659.1 528.8 573.6 - 10.7% -

3.8% 1.1% 2.6% 1.2% 6.7%

7.4 $48,860 $900.12

2019 24.0 66.2 22.5 33.4 1,408,950 2018 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% 7.7% 4.1% 0.3% 112.8 49.2 81.5 - - $68,841,224 $79,297,922 2.5% 0.2% 1.3% 2.1% 0.2% 348.5 217.8 - - 85.7 21.6 30.2 33.9 2018 2.2% 2.6% 5.0% 1.7% 2.8% 1.4% 649.4 520.8 563.8 15.2%

7.7 4.3% 0.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.0%

23.9 66.7 20.9 33.3

2017

0.4% 0.3% 2.3% 5.2% 6.0% 0.3% 111.5 48.5 83.3 $47,607 $843.44 - - - 2018 6.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 0.8% 349.2 217.4 1,393,605 - - - 81.6 18.7 29.4 33.4 2017 $66,345,545 $78,390,780 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3.2% 635.7 507.4 554.2 - 13.3%

8.2 23.8 68.2 19.9 33.2

housands) 2016

0.2% 2.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% t 112.0 48.1 84.9 - - - 4.2% 0.6% 3.5% 0.2% 8.4% (thousands) 3.0% 0.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 352.3 219.2 - $46,034 $827.03 80.4 16.5 29.3 34.5 2017 2016 0.1% 0.5% 7.2% 1.0% 0.3% 7.7% 1,381,492 629.8 500.8 549.4

- - - - 17.1% $63,595,536 $76,091,701

- 8.3 24.5 67.7 19.6 33.4

2015 2.1% 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 1.5% 0.7% 111.7 46.9 85.6

3.7% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 351.2 218.7 -

0.8% 1.2% 1.9% 1.4% 3.0% - - - 86.6 19.9 29.3 37.4

$44,458 $762.68 2015 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 2.0% 7.5% 3.0% 0.2% 630.4 503.4 543.7 2016

- - - 1,372,985 8.1 $61,039,624 $75,905,375 24.3 66.0 19.1 33.2 2014 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.7% 2.3% 109.4 46.3 85.8 -

1.7% 0.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 348.4 216.3

- - -

87.5 21.6 28.4 37.5 2014 2.5% 1.6% 0.9% 6.8% 2.6% 1.9% 2.4% 3.6% 1.7% 3.5% 4.6% 2.9% 620.5 495.8 533.0

- 8.2 $45,323 $740.67 2015 23.7 64.2 18.9 32.4 1,357,178 2013 4.0% 5.2% 3.0% 5.9% 4.7% 2.0% 106.9 47.1 86.3

- $61,511,862 $76,978,757 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 0.2% 1.3% 348.6 215.1 - -

84.5 20.8 27.2 36.5

2013 2.4% 2.5% 3.5% 2.2% 4.3% 2.2% 4.0% 608.7 484.1 524.2

8.6 6.0% 1.2% 4.7% 4.3% 1.1% Oklahoma City Employment Outlook( Employment OklahomaCity Oklahoma City Employment Outlook Employment OklahomaCity - 22.6 62.4 17.8 31.8 2012 2.9% 5.5% 1.9% 3.3% 4.4% 3.0%

102.8 48.4 86.4 $44,924 $760.07 - Oklahoma City MSA Income, Population, and Earnings Population,and MSA Income, OklahomaCity 2014 0.4% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 347.2 212.4 1,336,256 - - $60,029,999 $72,107,701 81.6 20.0 26.6 35.1 2012 2.5% 3.0% 7.7% 1.7% 2.5% 6.6% 594.7 472.2 513.0

17.7%

9.0 99.9 21.4 61.2 17.3 30.9

2011 49.1 84.8 2.8% 4.7% 1.8% 4.1% 5.8% 0.6%

2.9% 1.7% 1.1% 3.8% 1.2% - - 2.9% 1.3% 2.6% 1.3% 2.0% - 343.9 209.9 - - - - $42,900 $768.91 2013 1,320,148 75.8 17.0 25.9 32.9 2011 2.3% 3.0% 7.5% 1.6% 2.8% 6.1% 580.1 458.4 504.3 $56,634,702 $69,128,384 19.0%

5.7% 1.6% 4.0% 6.1%

10.3% $42,418 $778.56 2012 1,297,857

$55,052,398 $66,628,928

($ Thou)

GDP

% Change, AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg. AnnualChange, % Avg.

% Change, AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average

Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual

% Change, AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average

Government Federal State Local ($ Income Personal Thou) Population Per Capita Pers. Income Real Metro Average Weekly Earnings Industry/Year Nonfarm Private Goods Services Gas)Mining(Oiland Construction Manufacturing Industry/Year Utilities Transport, Trade, Wholesale Trade Trade Retail Transport,Warehouse, Utilities Information FinancialServices APPENDIX C: OKLAHOMA CITY OUTLOOK TABLES

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 37

5.9 80.2 15.1 32.2 32.8 21.6 69.5 25.9 35.6 89.3 38.5 11.0 39.8 94.6 76.0 61.8 30.1 2022 2022 2022 1.5% 1.6% 4.8% 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% 0.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 2.8% 3.4% 5.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 1.1% 670.0 538.1 587.1 116.9 101.3 132.1 - - 17.5%

6.0 99.9 93.4 74.0 60.2 29.2 21.1 69.7 25.7 35.4 86.9 37.2 10.4 39.3 2021 76.5 12.9 31.7 32.0 2021 4.0% 5.5% 8.6% 6.7% 3.1% 1.2% 1.6% 2.5% 3.4% 0.4% 7.4% 3.8% 2.2% 4.1% 3.1% 0.3% 130.6 2021 116.5 3.2% 3.8% 1.2% 3.0% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% - - 659.9 529.5 578.4 - - - -

6.4 96.0 88.5 68.1 56.4 28.3 21.7 67.4 25.6 34.1 85.0 35.8 10.1 39.2 2020 0.3% 2.4% 8.5% 6.2% 2.8% 1.0% 2020 129.0 77.5 13.4 32.0 32.1 0.3% 9.9% 2.9% 3.2% 9.0% 0.7% 3.6% 0.5% 7.8% 6.1% - - - - - 114.7 2020 3.0% 3.5% 9.4% 2.1% 0.3% 6.0% - - - - - 639.4 510.4 561.6 ------30.7% -

7.1 96.3 86.4 74.5 60.1 29.1 24.0 65.5 24.8 33.9 88.2 35.6 10.9 41.7 2019 2019 3.1% 3.0% 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% 1.2% 4.0% 1.5% 3.1% 3.7% 4.4% 2.2% 130.3 114.3 - - 10.1% 85.5 19.3 32.1 34.2 2019 1.5% 1.5% 0.2% 1.7% 6.2% 0.8% 659.1 528.8 573.6 - 10.7% -

7.4 93.4 83.8 73.8 59.4 28.8

2018 1.5% 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 0.3% 24.0 66.2 22.5 33.4 85.6 34.3 10.5 40.8 128.7 2018 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% 7.7% 4.1% 0.3% 5.0% 3.4% 6.7% 5.9% 112.8 - - 85.7 21.6 30.2 33.9 2018 2.2% 2.6% 5.0% 1.7% 2.8% 1.4% 649.4 520.8 563.8

15.2%

7.7 9.8 92.0 83.0 71.7 57.7 28.2

2017 23.9 66.7 20.9 33.3 81.5 33.2 38.5 1.0% 1.3% 2.5% 3.1% 6.8% 0.5% 128.3 2017

0.4% 0.3% 2.3% 5.2% 6.0% 0.3% 2.3% 2.6% 3.3% 1.9% - 111.5 - - - 81.6 18.7 29.4 33.4 2017 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3.2% 635.7 507.4 554.2 -

13.3%

8.2 9.5 91.2 81.9 70.0 55.9 26.4 23.8 68.2 19.9 33.2 79.6 32.4 37.8 2016

0.7% 1.0% 2.9% 3.0% 4.5% 1.6% 2016 129.0 0.2% 2.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 3.7% 0.5% 2.9% 112.0 - - - - - (thousands) 80.4 16.5 29.3 34.5 2016

0.1% 0.5% 7.2% 1.0% 0.3% 7.7% 629.8 500.8 549.4

- - - - 17.1% - 8.3 9.5 90.5 81.1 68.0 54.3 25.2 2015 24.5 67.7 19.6 33.4 79.7 31.2 38.9 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 2.1% 5.0% 1.8% 127.0 2015 2.1% 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 1.5% 0.7% 1.2% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5% 111.7 -

86.6 19.9 29.3 37.4

2015 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 2.0% 7.5% 3.0% 0.2% 630.4 503.4 543.7 - - - 8.1 9.4 88.9 79.5 65.9 53.2 24.0 2014 1.1% 1.0% 2.7% 2.8% 7.3% 0.1% 24.3 66.0 19.1 33.2 78.7 30.2 39.1 124.7 2014 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.7% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 4.5% 1.1% 109.4 -

87.5 21.6 28.4 37.5 2014 1.9% 2.4% 3.6% 1.7% 3.5% 4.6% 2.9% 620.5 495.8 533.0 8.2 9.0 88.0 78.7 64.2 51.7 22.4 2013 23.7 64.2 18.9 32.4 77.6 29.9 38.7 1.7% 1.7% 4.0% 4.2% 0.0% 1.7% 124.6 2013 4.0% 5.2% 3.0% 5.9% 4.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 2.5% 1.8% 106.9

- -

84.5 20.8 27.2 36.5

2013 2.4% 2.5% 3.5% 2.2% 4.3% 2.2% 4.0% 608.7 484.1 524.2 8.6 8.8 Oklahoma City Employment Outlook Employment OklahomaCity Outlook(thousands) Employment OklahomaCity 86.4 77.4 61.7 49.6 22.4 22.6 62.4 17.8 31.8 76.8 30.0 38.1 2012 2.4% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.6% 2012 122.5 2.9% 5.5% 1.9% 3.3% 4.4% 3.0% 1.3% 2.8% 2.1%

102.8 - - - 12.8% 81.6 20.0 26.6 35.1 2012

2.5% 3.0% 7.7% 1.7% 2.5% 6.6% 594.7 472.2 513.0

17.7% 9.0 7.8 84.4 75.5 60.0 48.3 22.7 2011 99.9 21.4 61.2 17.3 30.9 75.8 29.1 38.9 1.4% 0.9% 4.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.2% 121.7 2011 2.8% 4.7% 1.8% 4.1% 5.8% 0.6% 3.6% 3.0% 7.2% 3.3% -

- - 75.8 17.0 25.9 32.9 2011 2.3% 3.0% 7.5% 1.6% 2.8% 6.1% 580.1 458.4 504.3 19.0%

Change,Annual Average

% Change, AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average % Change, AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average % AnnualChange, % Average % Change, AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average Industry/Year Nonfarm Private Goods Services Gas)Mining(Oiland Construction Manufacturing Industry/Year Utilities Transport, Trade, Wholesale Trade Trade Retail Transport,Warehouse, Utilities Information FinancialServices Services & Business Professional ScientificServices Management Administrativeand Support Industry/Year Education& HealthServices HealthServices Services Leisure Accommodations & FoodService OtherServices Government

38 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

30.4 46.2 55.4 89.3 38.5 11.0 39.8 94.6 76.0 61.8 30.1 2022 2.8% 3.4% 5.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 1.1% 0.2% 1.8% 1.1% 101.3 132.1

99.9 93.4 74.0 60.2 29.2 30.4 45.4 54.8 86.9 37.2 10.4 39.3 2021 1.6% 1.7% 0.6% 4.0% 5.5% 8.6% 6.7% 3.1% 1.2% 2.2% 4.1% 3.1% 0.3% 130.6

29.9 44.7 54.5 96.0 88.5 68.1 56.4 28.3 85.0 35.8 10.1 39.2 2020 0.3% 2.4% 8.5% 6.2% 2.8% 1.0% 1.8% 2.4% 1.2% 129.0 3.6% 0.5% 7.8% 6.1% ------

96.3 86.4 74.5 60.1 29.1 29.4 45.8 55.2 88.2 35.6 10.9 41.7 2019 0.7% 0.6% 2.1% 3.1% 3.0% 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 3.1% 3.7% 4.4% 2.2% 130.3

93.4 83.8 73.8 59.4 28.8 29.2 45.5 54.0 2018 1.5% 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 85.6 34.3 10.5 40.8 128.7 - 5.0% 3.4% 6.7% 5.9%

9.8 92.0 83.0 71.7 57.7 28.2 28.8 45.8 53.7 2017 81.5 33.2 38.5 1.0% 1.3% 2.5% 3.1% 6.8% 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 1.5% 128.3

2.3% 2.6% 3.3% 1.9% - - -

9.5 91.2 81.9 70.0 55.9 26.4 28.3 46.2 54.5 79.6 32.4 37.8 2016 0.7% 1.0% 2.9% 3.0% 4.5% 1.6% 3.2% 2.0% 0.4% 129.0 0.0% 3.7% 0.5% 2.9% - -

9.5 90.5 81.1 68.0 54.3 25.2 27.4 45.3 54.3 2015 79.7 31.2 38.9 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 2.1% 5.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 127.0 1.2% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5% -

9.4 88.9 79.5 65.9 53.2 24.0 26.9 44.4 53.5 2014 1.1% 1.0% 2.7% 2.8% 7.3% 0.1% 2.4% 2.0% 0.2% 78.7 30.2 39.1 124.7 - - 1.4% 0.9% 4.5% 1.1%

9.0 88.0 78.7 64.2 51.7 22.4 27.6 43.5 53.6 2013 77.6 29.9 38.7 1.7% 1.7% 4.0% 4.2% 0.0% 1.7% 2.2% 2.6% 3.2% 124.6 - 1.1% 0.2% 2.5% 1.8% -

8.8 Oklahoma City Employment Outlook(thousands) Employment OklahomaCity 86.4 77.4 61.7 49.6 22.4 28.2 42.4 51.9 76.8 30.0 38.1 2012 2.4% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 122.5 1.3% 2.8% 2.1% - - - 12.8%

7.8 84.4 75.5 60.0 48.3 22.7 28.4 42.1 51.3 2011 75.8 29.1 38.9 1.4% 0.9% 4.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.7% 121.7 3.6% 3.0% 7.2% 3.3% - -

Change,Annual Average

% Change, AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average % Change, AnnualChange, % Average AnnualChange, % Average % AnnualChange, % Average

Professional & Business Services & Business Professional ScientificServices Management Administrativeand Support Industry/Year Education& HealthServices HealthServices Services Leisure Accommodations & FoodService OtherServices Government Federal State Local

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 39 DEMOLITION • HAULING • EXCAVATION 405.478.8833 or midwestwreckingco.com FOR A FREE ESTIMATE 40 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST