GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMIC FORECAST OKLAHOMA CITY METRO 2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................................2 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................……………………………………………………………………4 The U.S. Economic Outlook ………………………………………………….. ................................................................................................................8 The Oklahoma Economic Outlook …………………………………………… ..........................................................................................................12 The Oklahoma City MSA Economic Outlook....................................................................................................…………………………………18 Conclusion, Announcements and Retail Successes ................................................................................................................................ 28 Appendix: Detailed Forecast Tables …………………………………………... ............................................................................31 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Oklahoma GDP and Personal Income........................................................................................................................................4 Figure 2: 2nd Quarter Percent Change: GDP and Personal Income ....................................................................................................5 Figure 3: CARES Act Contributions to Personal Income ...........................................................................................................................6 Figure 4: Oklahoma Energy Index ................................................................................................................................................................7 Figure 5: U.S. Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures .......................................................................................................8 Figure 6: U.S. Nonfarm Employment ............................................................................................................................................................9 Figure 7: U.S. Inflation and Interest Rates ................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 8: Oklahoma Emloyment Pre-Pandemic ........................................................................................................................................12 Figure 9: Oklahoma GDP and Personal Income......................................................................................................................................13 Figure 10: Oklahoma Real GDP and Personal Income ..........................................................................................................................14 Figure 11: Oklahoma Population and Per Capita Income ....................................................................................................................15 Figure 12: Oklahoma Nonfarm and Private Employment .......................................................................................................................16 Figure 13: Oklahoma Goods and Services Employment Growth........................................................................................................17 Figure 14: Oklahoma City MSA Income and GDP.................................................................................................................................18 Figure 15: Oklahoma City MSA Per Capita Personal Income ..............................................................................................................19 Figure 16: Oklahoma City MSA Population .............................................................................................................................................19 Figure 17: Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment ........................................................................................................................ 20 Figure 18: Oklahoma City MSA Goods Sector Employment ...............................................................................................................21 Figure 19: Oklahoma City MSA Services Sector Employment .............................................................................................................21 Figure 20: Crude Oil Production (OK and US) ………………………………………………………… .....................................................................22 Figure 21: Baker Hughes Active Rig Count ................................................................................................................................................22 Figure 22: Oklahoma City MSA Oil and Gas Employment .................................................................................................................23 Figure 23: Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment ..............................................................................................................24 Figure 24: Oklahoma City MSA Financial Services Employment ........................................................................................................25 Figure 25: Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Servics Employment ............................................................................................................. 26 Prepared by Russell R. Evans, Ph.D. Eric Long Associate Professor of Economics Research Economist Executive Director, Steven C. Agee Economic Research and Policy Institute Economic Development Division Meinders School of Business, Oklahoma City University Greater Oklahoma City Chamber 405-297-8976 [email protected] 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST 1 The Greater Oklahoma City Economic Forecast provides a comprehensive analysis of the national, state and metro economies. It OVERVIEW details historic trends, a snapshot of the current situation, as well as a forecast for 2021. In 2021, the Oklahoma City metro should benefit from UNEMPLOYMENT RATES REMAIN LOW improved economic conditions as the nation gradually AFTER SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATION exits the pandemic economic reality and the bottom to the current energy cycle. This should set the stage The Oklahoma City metro finished 2020 with an for a return to more traditional growth in 2022 as the unemployment rate of 4.8% and a yearly average of Oklahoma City region builds upon pre-pandemic levels approximately 6.5%. Monthly unemployment rates ranged of economic activity. Overall in as low as 2.7% (March) and as 2020, year-over-year nonfarm high as 14.8% (April). In March, annual job growth declined by heading into the pandemic, the 3% or shed 19,700 jobs in the Oklahoma City MSA had the Oklahoma City MSA. The largest lowest unemployment rate among percentage year-over-year job all large metros in the nation gains were found in transport/ and the lowest unemployment warehouse/utilities (+3.2%), retail rate again in September. trade (+2.9%), health services Oklahoma City finished out the (+2.4%), financial services year ranked among the lowest (+0.7%) and scientific services 10 unemployment rates for large (+0.5%). metros (more than 1 million in population). Throughout the year, The largest declines were rankings fluctuated from No. found in oil and gas (-30.7%), 1 (March) to No. 34 (April). wholesale trade (-9.9%), Unemployment rates in the final information (-9.0%), leisure five months of the year closely services (-8.5%), food services paralleled what the metro and administration (-6.2%), saw coming out of the 2009 administrative support (-6.1%) recession. and manufacturing (-6.0%). VALUE OF Positive Oklahoma City metro job growth in 2021 is expected, CONSTRUCTION with the more optimistic job PROJECTS forecast scenario growing by According to Dodge, in 2020 the 3.2% or approximately 20,500 total construction value of tracked jobs by the end of 2021. This contract projects (residential, growth parallels expectations for non-residential and non-building the nation. An alternative model infrastructure) in the Oklahoma shows a more pessimistic start to City MSA was $3.5 billion. That 2021 with the Oklahoma City was 6% less than the prior year. MSA job growing at 1.5% or just The largest positive year-over- under 10,000 jobs added by the year percentage gains were end of the fourth quarter – and found in the hotels and motels, hospitals and other health overall jobs total still below 2019 levels. The local economy treatment and religious buildings categories. The largest remains vulnerable to national and global uncertainties year-over-year construction value declines were in the surrounding COVID-19 that may cause a delay in office and bank, government service and miscellaneous improved economic conditions. non-residential buildings categories. For 2021, the total 2 2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST construction value of contract projects is forecasted by Since 2016, 23,914 jobs with payroll in excess of $1.2 Dodge to be relatively flat and decline by 3% with small, billion and $2.2 billion in capital investment has been positive gains in both non-residential and residential. A announced by Chamber-assisted companies. large 21% decline is expected in non-building (bridges, water supply systems and other). This non-building As part of that program, overall metrics are tracked for category is what is