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네오위즈(042420) Reinstating Coverage KOREA Aug

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네오위즈(042420) Reinstating Coverage KOREA Aug MIRAEASSET EQUITY RESEARCH 보고서의 목적 네오위즈(042420) Reinstating Coverage KOREA Aug. 17, 2006 / 인터넷 게임퍼블리셔 업계의 기린아 BUY(Reinstate) 6개월 목표주가 100,000원 및 투자의견 BUY로 Coverage 재개 취 견고한 게임 라인업, 최강의 맨파워, 치밀한 전략의 시너지 효과 목표주가 (6M) 100,000원 지 최근 관심 이슈 및 리스크요인 점검 현재주가 (08 / 16) 74,100원 Analyst 송인애 3774-1620 [email protected] ■ 목표주가 100,000원, 투자의견 BUY 제시하며 Coverage 재개 Company Analysis 네오위즈에 대한 목표주가 100,000원 및 BUY 투자의견을 제시하며 커버리지를 재 발행 주식수(천주) 7,662 개함. 목표주가 100,000원은 전세계 동종업체의 상대 PER을 이용한 비교 밸류에 액면가(원) 500 시가총액 (십억원) 568 이션을 통하여 산출함. 동 목표주가를 적용한 동사의 2006년, 2007년 및 2008년 52주 최저 / 최고(원) 20,550/118,400 예상 PER은 43.0배, 19.8배, 15.9배 수준이며 12개월 Forward EPS 기준 PER은 52주 일간 Beta (KOSPI대비) 1.2 25.5배 수준임. 네오위즈의 향후 3년 연평균 매출액, 영업이익, 당기순이익의 성장 평균거래량(3M, 천주) 70 율은 각각 31.1%, 55.0%, 82.6%에 달할 것으로 예상함. 평균거래대금(3M, 백만원) 5,747 외국인소유지분율 (%) 17.0 05년 주당 배당금(원) 366 ■ 3가지 경쟁력: 비즈니스 모델 창출 능력, 견고한 게임 라인업, 최강의 맨파워 06년 주당 예상배당금(원) 0 1) 세계 최초로 선보인 아바타와 스페셜포스(舊, 카르마온라인) 재 상용화 성공에서 06년 예상EPS Consensus(원) 2,499 보여준 유료 비즈니스 모델 창출에서의 강점과, 2) 현재 게임 퍼블리싱 업계에서 가 Consensus 차이(%) (7.1) 장 기대되는 게임 라인업을 보유하였고, 3) 업계의 최강 맨파워들의 합류로 강한 시 주요주주 지분율(%) 나성균외 7인 24.1 너지 발휘가 예상되고 있어 정성적인 회사가치의 상승에 따른 실적 개선이 기대됨. 장병규 10.3 NORGES BANK KOREA 5.9 ■ 성수기의 도래, FIFA online 매출은 순항 중, 비게임 관계사 매각 등으로 경쟁력 제고 지속 1M 6M 12M 연중 가장 비수기인 2분기가 지나면서 3분기부터 본격적인 성수기 시즌이 도래함. 주가상승률(%) (2.9) 22.9 243.9 트래픽 감소로 우려하고 있는 FIFA online 상용서비스 실적은 스페셜포스 때보다 KOSPI대비 상대수익률(%) (7.7) 22.8 226.1 도 순조롭게 진행되고 있는 것으로 보이며 2007년에는 Ray City와 크로스파이어, 2008년에는 Project T와 GG Project의 상용서비스가 예상됨에 따라 추가적인 성장 (원) 140,000 460 이 가능할 것으로 보임. 더불어 첫눈 매각 이후 인트로모바일을 비롯한 비게임 관 120,000 410 계사들의 추가 지분매각도 고려하고 있어 회사의 역량 집중에 따른 경쟁력 제고가 100,000 360 회사의 가치 제고로 이어질 수 있을 전망임. KOSPI대비 상대지수 (우) 310 80,000 260 60,000 네오위즈 (좌) 210 40,000 160 20,000 110 0 60 05.8 05.10 05.12 06.2 06.4 06.6 결산월 매출액 영업이익 EBITDA 경상이익 순이익 EPS 증감률 PER PBR EV/EBITDA ROE 12월 (십억원) (십억원) (십억원) (십억원) (십억원) (원) (%) (배) (배) (배) (%) 2004 77.5 7.3 18.0 2.9 1.5 204 (90.0) 111.5 1.9 7.1 1.7 2005 102.2 17.6 26.5 10.7 7.9 1,095 435.6 44.5 4.4 12.0 9.5 2006E 136.9 30.0 38.9 26.5 17.8 2,322 112.1 31.9 6.0 12.8 20.6 2007E 191.2 54.7 65.6 53.4 38.8 5,062 118.0 14.6 4.2 6.9 33.8 2008E 230.4 65.7 78.3 66.0 48.3 6,302 24.5 11.8 3.1 5.1 30.5 ※ 본 종목에 대한 이해관계 공지사항은 본 보고서의 마지막 페이지에 있으므로 투자에 참고하시기 바랍니다. 네오위즈( 042420) CC ontents I. Investment Summary 3 II.Valuation 4 목표주가 100, 000원과 BUY 투자의견으로 커버리지 재개 4 III. 영업실적전망 7 퍼블리싱: 견고한 게임 라인업, 최강의 맨파워, 치밀한 전략의 시너지 효과 9 웹보드게임: 추가성장보다는 캐쉬카우로서의 역할 기대 10 세이클럽: 유명무실한 사이트로 전락, 존폐여부 결정 가능성 높아 12 IV. 최근 이슈 13 FIFA online PC방 점유율 하락, 상용화 난항? - 이벤트 없이도 자신있다 ! 13 선택과 집중은 지속된다 - 비핵심 관계사의 매각 예상 15 V. 리스크요인 16 게임 판권확보에 따른 선급금의 증가 17 부분 유료화 모델의 창궐로 불확실성이 높아지고 있는 게임 매출 17 개발사 이탈 방지를 위한 비용 증가 18 2 2006.08.17 네오위즈( 042420) I. Investment Summary 목표주가 100,000원과 BUY 투자의견으로 Coverage 재개 목표주가 100,000원 투자의견 네오위즈에 대한 목표주가 100,000원 및 BUY 투자의견을 제시하며 커버리지를 재개한다. BUY로 Coverage 재개 목표주가 100,000원은 전세계 동종업체의 상대 PER을 이용한 비교 밸류에이션을 통해 산출 하였다. 목표주가 100,000원을 적용한 동사의 2006년, 2007년 및 2008년 예상 PER은 43.0배, 19.8배, 15.9배 수준이며 12개월 Forward EPS 기준 PER은 25.5배 수준이다. 핵심 경쟁력 – 견고한 게임 라인업, 최강의 맨파워, 치밀한 전략의 시너지 효과 갖추어진 게임라인업과 2분기 실적 부진과 FIFA online의 트래픽감소로 최근 고점대비 63.7%의 주가 하락이 진행 업계최강의 맨파워가 강점 되고 있으나, 1) 연중 가장 비수기인 2분기가 지나간 올해 3분기부터 내년 1분기까지 성수기 를 맞이하여 지속적인 실적 회복이 예상되고, 2) 트래픽 감소로 우려하고 있는 FIFA online 상용서비스 실적은 스페셜포스 때보다도 순조롭게 진행되고 있으며, 3) 세계 최초로 선보인 아바타와 스페셜포스(舊, 카르마온라인) 재 상용화 성공에서 보여준 유료 비즈니스 모델 창 출에서의 강점이, 4) 현재 게임 퍼블리싱 업계에서 가장 기대되는 라인업과, 5) 업계의 최강 맨파워들이 합류로 강한 시너지 발휘가 예상되고 있어 정성적인 회사가치의 상승에 따른 실 적 개선이 향후 주가 상승을 견인할 수 있다는 판단이다. 더불어 첫눈 매각 이후 인트로모바 일을 비롯한 비게임 관계사들의 추가 지분매각도 고려하고 있어 회사의 역량 집중에 따른 경 쟁력 제고가 지속적으로 이루어질 것으로 보인다. 매출 및 이익 전망 FIFA online은 공동개발에 참여하여 네오위즈의 향후 3년 연평균 매출액, 영업이익, 당기순이익의 성장율은 각각 31.1%, 55.0%, 수익성이 높음 82.6%에 달할 것으로 예상된다. 네오위즈의 퍼블리셔로서의 이러한 성장세는 동사가 회사의 역량을 게임사업에 집중하고 있고 스페셜포스를 필두로 최근 상용화한 FIFA online에서도 좋은 반응을 보이고 있는 것을 고려한 것이다. FIFA online은 온라인서비스 개발에 공동으 로 참여하여 타 게임과 달리 선급금이 없고, 수익배분에서도 유리한 상황이므로 FIFA online의 성공은 네오위즈의 수익성 개선에 기여할 것으로 예상한다. FIFA online의 성공은 단기적인 성과이외에도 동사가 퍼블리셔 업계의 강자로 자리매김하는 토대가 되어 향후 게 임 라인업 확보에도 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 기대한다. 2007년에는 Ray City와 크로스 파이어, 2008년에는 Project T와 GG Project가 상용서비스 될 것으로 예상되면서 매출 및 이익의 추가적인 성장이 가능할 것으로 보인다. 위험요인 – 게임 성과의 불확실성, 개발사 이탈 방지를 위한 투자비용 증가, 선급금 증가 현재 초기 상용화 단계인 FIFA online을 비롯하여 향후 서비스될 게임들의 실적추정치는 스 페셜포스와 각 쟝르별 선발게임들의 사례를 통해 매출 추정하였으나, 각 게임의 유료화 결과 에 따른 불확실성이 존재한다. 또한, 스폐셜포스, 프리스타일 등 성공한 게임의 개발사와 퍼 블리셔간 분쟁은 대부분의 개발사들이 코스닥 등록을 고려하고 있기에 지속적으로 발생할 수 있는 이슈이다. 따라서 게임 라인업 확보시 판권과 더불어 개발사 지분도 확보할 가능성 이 높아지면서 비용이 증가할 우려가 있다. 더불어 게임 판권 확보를 위한 선급금이 게임수 와 비례하여 증가추세에 있으므로 서비스 게임 수가 늘어나면 비용증가의 원인으로 작용할 수 있다. 2006.08.17 3 네오위즈( 042420) II.Valuation 목표주가 100,000원과 BUY 투자의견으로 커버리지 재개 네오위즈에 대한 6개월 투자의견 네오위즈에 대한 6개월 투자의견 BUY 및 목표주가 100,000원을 제시하며 커버리지를 재개 BUY 및 목표주가 100,000원 제시 한다. 동 목표주가는 현주가 대비 35.0%의 상승여력이 있다. 네오위즈의 적정가치는 전세계 동종업체의 상대 PER을 이용한 비교 밸류에이션을 통해 산출하였다. 적정가 산출을 위한 기 준으로 세계 주요 게임업체의 상대 PER 평균치 3.3배를 20% 할인하여 적용하였다. 20% 할 인한 이유는 동사 수익의 대부분을 차지하는 게임이 분기별로 강한 사이클을 이루고 있어 인 터넷 업종 Top pick인 NHN 대비 매출 및 수익 안정성이 낮기 때문이다. 목표주가 100,000 원을 적용한 동사의 2006년, 2007년 및 2008년 예상 PER은 43.0배, 19.8배, 15.9배 수준이 며 12개월 Forward EPS에 대한 PER은 25.5배 수준이다. <표 1> Global Peer Group Valuation 지표 세계 주요 게임업체의 구분 단위 EA ACTIVISION SQUARE ENIX NETEASE THE9 TENCENT UBI SOFT 지수대비 상대 PER 평균은 3.3배 Ticker(code) ERTS ATVI 9684 JP NTES NCTY US 700 HK UBI FP Country US US JN CH CH CH FR Currency USD USD JPY USD USD HKD EUR Relative Index SPX SPX TPX SPX SPX HSI CAC Price 50.8 13.2 2,650 17.2 25.0 17.5 39.7 Relative PER 배3.2 8.6 0.4 1.0 1.0 5.1 4.6 2006E 배 90.6 88.3 24.6 15.6 17.4 33.9 64.7 PER 2007E 배 38.6 26.1 22.3 13.4 12.7 27.1 28.2 2006E 0.6 0.1 107.7 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.6 EPS 2007E 1.3 0.5 118.8 1.3 2.0 0.6 1.4 1일 % 3.9 3.0 (1.1) (7.8) 0.5 5.4 0.2 1개월 % 12.2 16.5 19.9 (17.6) 7.2 13.1 6.9 주가수익률 3개월 % 17.5 (0.5) 5.8 (25.1) (9.4) 18.1 (1.6) 6개월 % (2.9) 8.3 (15.1) (2.7) 26.8 65.7 27.5 1년 % (15.5) (12.3) (12.8) (8.9) 12.5 139.5 (7.6) 지수대비 1일 % (1.4) (1.4) (2.6) (1.4) (1.4) 4.4 0.2 상대수익률 1개월 % 7.9 12.0 12.0 (20.7) 3.1 4.6 (0.1) 3개월 % 18.1 (0.0) 6.8 (24.7) (8.9) 11.0 (2.2) 6개월 % (2.6) 8.6 (15.0) (2.5) 27.2 46.7 24.0 1년 % (19.8) (16.9) (33.0) (13.6) 6.7 111.9 (19.7) 자료: Bloomberg, I/B/E/S 주: 해외기업주가는 8월 15일 종가(현지시각) <표 2> 상대 Valuation(Relative PER을 이용한 목표주가 산출) 구분 해외 동종업체의 상대 PER(배) 3.4 시장 평균 12M Forward PER(배) 9.4 할증(할인)(%) (20) 적용 상대 PER(배) 25.6 주당 적정 가치(원) 100,240 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 4 2006.08.17 네오위즈( 042420) <표 3> 목표주가 100,000원의 투자 지표 현주가 74,100원의 투자지표 목표주가 100,000원의 투자지표 구분 2006E 2007E 2008E 2006E 2007E 2008E PER(배) 31.9 14.6 11.8 43.0 19.8 15.9 PBR(배) 6.0 4.2 3.1 8.0 5.7 4.2 12개월 Forward PER(배) 18.9 25.5 12개월 Forward PBR(배) 4.9 6.7 3년 평균 EPS 성장률(%) 81.6 81.6 PEG 0.39 0.53 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <그림 1> 네오위즈 PER Band 과거 Valuation의 중간치에서 (원) 형성되고 있는 네오위즈 주가 150,000 주가 10X 16X 22X 28X 34X 120,000 90,000 60,000 30,000 0 00/06 00/12 01/06 01/12 02/06 02/12 03/06 03/12 04/06 04/12 05/06 05/12 06/06 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 <그림 2> 네오위즈 EV/EBITDA Band (십억원) 1,200 EV 7X 10X 13X 17X 21X 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 00/06 00/12 01/06 01/12 02/06 02/12 03/06 03/12 04/06 04/12 05/06 05/12 06/06 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 2006.08.17 5 네오위즈( 042420) <그림 3> 네오위즈 신규 매출 레벨업과 주가 추이 네오위즈의 신규 매출액 성장성과 (십억원) (원) 주가 상승 40 140,000 스페셜포스 35 웹게임 120,000 세이클럽+광고 30 원클릭 100,000 25 수정주가(우) 80,000 20 60,000 15 40,000 10 5 20,000 0 0 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 자료: 네오위즈, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 <그림 4> 네오위즈 분기별 영업이익과 주가 추이 네오위즈의 주가 상승에는 (십억원) (원) 영업이익 증가가 중요 12 영업이익 140,000 수정주가(우) 10 120,000 8 100,000 6 80,000 4 60,000 2 40,000 0 20,000 (2) 0 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 자료: 네오위즈, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 <그림 5> 네오위즈 매출액 및 영업이익률 추이 매출증가에 따라 (십억원) (%) 매출액 영업이익률 증가 예상 60 35 매출액 영업이익률(우) 30 50 25 40 20 15 30 10 20 5 0 10 (5) 0 (10) 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06E 1Q07E 3Q07E 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 6 2006.08.17 네오위즈( 042420) III.
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