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TURMERIC PRICE OUTLOOK JULY-2020: 13Th July 2020 Low Volumes in Futures Markets Amidst Lack of Strong Demand in Mandis Adverse

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TURMERIC PRICE OUTLOOK JULY-2020: 13Th July 2020 Low Volumes in Futures Markets Amidst Lack of Strong Demand in Mandis Adverse TURMERIC PRICE OUTLOOK JULY-2020: 13th July 2020 Low volumes in futures markets amidst lack of strong demand in mandis adversely affected the price movements. Demand / Prices ❏ Despite Govt measures to combat the distress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic still many cities are again under lock-down ❏ Turmeric prices look firm as export demand from Bangladesh is good ahead of Eid-ul-Azha festival in Bangladesh. ❏ Turmeric exports continue to remain low as compared with YoY while due to ❏ Domestic demand generally remains subdued during monsoon due to higher moisture content in the spice. ❏ According to Spices Board data, the state has exported 59,580 tonnes of turmeric in the first five months of the year, which is the highest for the same period in the last seven years. ❏ There is huge demand for turmeric, as coronavirus scare shoots up demand for India's raw turmeric ❏ Raw turmeric is often used with hot milk, which is believed to keep the respiratory system healthy. ❏ The demand for raw turmeric has risen sharply in the US, UK and Germany ❏ Lower prices can result in an overall drop in acreage, while there is slight rise in acreage in Maharashtra. ❏ Positive monsoon reports by IMD has improved the sentiments for higher sowing in Maharashtra. THE TURMERIC REPORT Visit: ​www.kediaadvisory.com​ Page No 1 ❏ Whereas lower prices of turmeric can lead to crop switching to soybean, maize and cotton in Tamil Nadu and Telangana belt. ❏ Increased demand with the start of monsoon season and lower arrivals in the Nizamabad market led to an uptrend in prices. ❏ As per our seasonality table for the last five years indicate further buying in the coming months, which is the sowing period. Arrival / Mandi ❏ Telangana remained shut for a week on fears of spread of coronavirus after reports of some cases in the market. ❏ The spot prices of turmeric are increasing at the markets due to the arrival of good quality in Erode. ❏ Arrivals of turmeric to the markets in Erode registered a decline. ❏ At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, finger variety was sold at Rs.5,289-6,288 a quintal, root variety was sold at Rs.4,709-5,788. ❏ Farmers have also been holding back their stocks due to lockdown and rise in COVID-19 cases in Tamil Nadu and Telangana. THE TURMERIC REPORT Visit: ​www.kediaadvisory.com​ Page No 2 CHART Chart Reading: Turmeric Prices were following a downward trend till the end of May 2020 making lower highs. Prices are expected to move sideways and 5582 levels can act as new support. Prices are expected to break out and go up once it breaks 6201 levels or 0.6180 Fibonacci retracement levels. The 200 Day moving average is near 6600 levels. RSI is at 48.4181 levels and waiting for a breakout. The Choppiness Index is at 57.81 and is at a downward slide which suggests upcoming volatility in the market. Meanwhile, the Vortex Indicator shows a sideways move in prices. ACTION: Turmeric prices look to trade in the range of 5300-5900 a break above the same will face resistance at 6200.00 level. Overall Crop / Demand position should be monitored for the next 1 month to get a proper view. While prices near 5200-5300 level make prices very attractive to buy and hold. THE TURMERIC REPORT Visit: ​www.kediaadvisory.com​ Page No 3 THE TURMERIC REPORT Visit: ​www.kediaadvisory.com​ Page No 4 Significant Weather Features ● The western end of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ganganagar, Delhi and Bareilly; while eastern end continues to run close to foothills of the Himalayas. A cyclonic circulation lies over East Bihar & neighbourhood at mid & upper tropospheric levels. In addition, the convergence of southwesterly/southerly winds from Bay of Bengal in the lower tropospheric levels very likely to continue over northeast & adjoining east India during next 24 hours. ● As a result, widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls most likely to continue over northeast India, West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar & adjoining East Uttar Pradesh during next 4 days. Isolated extremely heavy falls also very likely over SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 13th July 2020. The intensity of rainfall over these regions is likely to reduce gradually thereafter. ● Intense thunderstorm & lightning potential zone: Moderate to severe thunderstorm & lightning very likely over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Tamilnadu and Telangana during next 12 hours. THE TURMERIC REPORT Visit: ​www.kediaadvisory.com​ Page No 5 KEDIA STOCKS & COMMODITIES RESEARCH PVT LTD. Mumbai. INDIA. For more details, please contact: Mr. Ajay Kedia Mobile: +91 9323406035 / 9320096333 ​ ​ Email: [email protected] / URL: www.kediaadvisory.com ​ SEBI REGISTRATION NUMBER - INH000006156 ​For more information or to subscribe for monthly updates Visit www.kediaadvisory.com ​ ​ General Disclaimers: This Report is prepared and distributed by Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. for information ​ purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expressions of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale through KSCRPL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportunity. These information/opinions/ views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by KSCRPL to be reliable. KSCRPL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information/opinions/ views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of KSCRPL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information/opinions/views contained in this Report. The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by KSCRPL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose (s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. KSCRPL requires such a recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to KSCRPL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. THE TURMERIC REPORT Visit: ​www.kediaadvisory.com​ Page No 6 .
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