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Sustainable Transport and Ghg Emissions in Belgrade

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Sustainable Transport and Ghg Emissions in Belgrade REPUBLIC OF SERBIA Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection Empowered lives. Resilient nations. United Nations Development Programme ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS IN BELGRADE FINAL REPORT SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS IN BELGRADE October, 2014 This report has been prepared under the GEF-UNDP project “Support to Sustainable Transport in the City of Belgrade”, with the technical support of the United Nations Development Programme and financial support by Global Environment Facility. Project team: Miroslav Tadic, Aleksandar Jovanovic and Snezana Ostojic-Paunovic. The overall objective of the project is to reduce the metropolitan emissions in the City of Belgrade by improving the public transport scheme, reinforce the participation of cyclists in the traffic and provide the policy framework for sustainable urban transport development of the city of Belgrade. The project was implemented in partnership with the Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection and the City of Belgrade, through its Land Development Agency and Secretariat for Transport. The author of the report is Elena Gavrilova. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations, including UNDP, or UN Member States. 4 Sustainable Transport and GHG emissions in Belgrade Sustainable Transport and GHG emissions in Belgrade 5 CONTENTS CONTENTS List of Figures .................................................................................4 List of Tables ..................................................................................5 List of Abbreviations ..........................................................................6 Executive summary ...........................................................................7 1. Introduction .........................................................................10 1.1. Cities and Climate Change. .10 1.2. Overview of the climate change mainstreaming in R. Serbia ...........................11 1.2.1. National circumstances. 11 1.2.2. National aspirations ..................................................................11 1.2.3. National GHG emissions trends and transport sector emissions drivers .................12 1.3. City of Belgrade development strategy ................................................14 2. Estimation of the GHG impact of the city of Belgrade road transport emissions .........16 2.1. Overall evaluation of the city transport system and the vehicle fleet ....................16 2.2. GHG emissions estimation principles ..................................................18 2.2.1. Accounting and reporting principles ..................................................18 2.2.2. Definition of the assessment boundary ...............................................19 2.2.3. Overview of data sources used. .20 2.2.4. Calculation methodologies ...........................................................21 2.3. City of Belgrade road transport sector emissions for the period 2006 – 2012 ............22 2.4. Baseline emissions under Business as Usual scenario for the period 2013 – 2024 ........29 3. Outline of the project Support to Sustainable Transport in the city of Belgrade .........33 3.1. Project components and activities ....................................................33 3.1.1. Provision of basis for development of Sustainable Urban Plan of Belgrade ..............33 3.1.2. Promotion of the cycling in the city ...................................................35 3.1.3. Greener modes of transport to school .................................................35 3.1.4. Eco-driving modes in the public companies ...........................................36 3.2. Relation and integration with other initiatives and expansions plans ...................36 4. Assessment of the GHG impact of the project activities ................................38 4.1. Overview of the GHG mitigation potential estimation methodology ...................38 4.2. Quantification of the mitigation impact of the project by project component ..........38 4.2.1. Mitigation assessment of the Component 1 - Provision of basis for development of Sustainable Urban Plan of the city of Belgrade .........................................39 4.2.2. Mitigation assessment of the Component 2 -Promotion of the cycling mlitigation potential assessment .................................................................40 4.2.3. Mitigation assessment of the Component 3 - Greener modes of transport to school mitigation potential assessment ......................................................43 4.2.4. Mitigation assessment of the Component 4 – Assessment of the mitigation potential of the Eco-driving modes in the public transport companies .................44 4.3. Quantification of the overall GHG mitigation potential of the project activities .........58 4.4. Estimation of the potential indirect GHG mitigation potential of the project ............61 5. Recommendations for further development of the sustainable transport system of the city of Belgrade ................................................................63 6. Conclusion ...........................................................................65 Sustainable Transport and GHG emissions in Belgrade 5 LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF FIGURES Figure 0.1. City of Belgrade road transport sector GHG emissions by vehicle class for the period 2006 - 2012 and estimated baseline emissions under BAU scenario for the period 2013 – 2024 [kt CO2-eq] ........................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 0.2. Estimated GHG mitigation potential of the sustainable transport interventions done in the project framework for the period 2012 – 2024 [kt CO2-eq] .............................................................................. 8 Figure 2.1. Trend of the registered vehicles in R. Serbia and registered vehicle on the territory of the city of Belgrade for the period 2006 – 2012; Source SSO of R. Serbia and MOI of R. Serbia .........................17 Figure 2.2. Average share of the registered vehicles, national and city of Belgrade, period 2006 - 2012 .............17 Figure 2.3. The administrative territory of the city of Belgrade with its infrastructural road transport network, source Master Plan of Belgrade to 2021 ..................................................................................................................20 Figure 2.4. COPERT IV model annual emissions of city of Belgrade Road transport by vehicle categories (excluding emissions from electricity consumption), in kt CO2-eq. .......................................24 Figure 2.5. Estimated GHG emissions of the city of Belgrade road transport sector for the period 2006 – 2012, in kt CO2-eq. ...........................................................................................................................................29 Figure 2.6. The City of Belgrade primary transport network development plan, source Beoland ..........................30 Figure 2.7. Baseline GHG emissions of the City of Belgrade road transport sector for the period 2006 – 2024, in kt of CO2-eq. ......................................................................................................................................32 Figure 4.1. GSP Belgrade annual fuel consumption, in litters, 2006 – 2012 .....................................................................45 Figure 4.2. GSP Belgrade annual consumption of electrical energy for trams and trolleys, in kWh, 2006 – 2012 .......................................................................................................................................................................45 6 Sustainable Transport and GHG emissions in Belgrade Sustainable Transport and GHG emissions in Belgrade 7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 4.3. GSP Belgrade number of lines, 2007 – 2012 ..........................................................................................................46 Figure 4.4. GSP Belgrade total length of the lines in km, 2007 – 2012 ..............................................................................46 Figure 4.5. GSP Belgrade average driving speed of the vehicle fleet, 2006 – 2012 .......................................................47 Figure 4.6. GSP Belgrade, number of transported passengers, in millions, 2006 – 2012 ............................................47 Figure 4.7. BAU and Mitigation Scenario emissions of the road transport sector of the city of Belgrade, 2013 – 2024, in kt-CO2 eq. ..........................................................................................................61 Sustainable Transport and GHG emissions in Belgrade 7 LIST OF TABLES LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1. National GHG emissions of R. Serbia for the years 1990 and 1998 [kt of CO2-eq.]; Source: Initial National Communication of the Republic of Serbia ...........................................................................................12 Table 2.1. Registered vehicles in R. Serbia and registered vehicle on the territory of the city of Belgrade for the period 2006 – 2012; Source SSO of R. Serbia and MOI of R. Serbia .......................................................16 Table 2.2. COPERT IV model output GHG emissions by the road transport of the city of Belgrade, by vehicle type, 2006 – 2012, in kt CO2-eq ............................................................................................................................................23
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