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A GLOBAL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THE EMPIRICAL LINK BETWEEN PEACE AND RELIGION QUANTIFYING PEACE AND ITS BENEFITS The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit think tank dedicated to shifting the world’s focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human well-being and progress. IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to define peacefulness; providing metrics for measuring peace; and uncovering the relationships between business, peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural, economic and political factors that create peace. IEP has offices in Sydney, New York and Oxford. It works with a wide range of partners internationally and collaborates with intergovernmental organizations on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace. For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.org CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 01 INTRODUCTION 04 RELIGION AND CONFLICT 06 Question 1: Is religion the main cause of conflict today? 06 RELIGIOUS BELIEF AND PEACE 09 Question 2: Does the proportion of religious belief or atheism in a country determine the peace of the country? 10 Question 3: In Muslim countries, does the demographic spread of Sunni and Shia determine peace? 13 HOW IMPORTANT IS RELIGION TO UNDERSTANDING PEACE? 16 Question 4: Is religion key to understanding what drives peace? 17 Question 5: Can religion play a positive role in peacebuilding? 21 REFERENCES 23 ENDNOTES 24 APPENDIX 25 Appendix A Data sources and methodology 25 Appendix B Explanation of conflict categories 27 Appendix C Correlation scatterplots 28 Appendix D Multivariate analysis 3 1 Appendix E World Values Survey 33 PEACE & RELIGION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents empirical research conducted by the It is easy to draw simple conclusions about the link between Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) in conjunction with religion and violence today. While there has been high the Religious Freedom and Business Foundation1 that aims profile terrorist conflict involving religious fundamentalism to get beyond ideology to provide a more comprehensive this is distinct from the broader relationship between understanding of how religion interacts with peace. religion and peace. Recurrent sectarian violence between Quantitative analysis has revealed that many of the Muslims and religious aspects of the Arab-Israeli conflict are commonly made statements surrounding the relationship undoubtedly a major feature of seemingly intractable between peace and religion are not supported by the conflicts in the Middle East. But focusing only on the analysis contained in this study. extremes does not provide a clear view of the role that religion plays in peace and conflict nor inform our This report answers five common questions relating to understanding of the extent to which these events are the religion and violence. To determine the list of questions the exception rather than the rule. most common themes of discussion and opinions expressed in the media were identified. The scope of the research Current events stand in contrast to the positive role that highlights key relationships between peace and religion and religion and religious leaders have played in building peace provides a platform and opportunities for further research. over the course of past 100 years. Some of the greatest peace builders of the 20th century have also been religious leaders; Desmond Tutu, Mahatma Ghandi and Martin Luther The five questions addressed in this report are: King are names synonymous with the practice of non- violence. Many non-violent movements have been based on Question 1 — Is religion the main cause of conflict today? religious principles and the major religions of Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism and Islam all have forms of non- Question 2 — Does the proportion of religious violence and peace as part of their religious traditions. This belief or atheism in a country determine the peace highlights a contradiction which has been played out of the country? through history; on the one hand religion has been a Question 3 — In Muslim countries, does motivator of conflict, yet it has also been pivotal in the demographic spread of Sunni and Shia developing key concepts of peace and non-violence as well determine peace? as creating peace. Question 4 — Is religion key to understanding Hence the role and relationship between religion, peace and what drives peace? conflict is a contentious and polarising subject, attracting a wide array of arguments and contrasting opinion, often Question 5 — Can religion play a positive role grounded in popular belief rather than empirical fact. in peacebuilding? Despite the contentiousness of these debates and the perceived importance that is placed on religion there have Global peace as measured by the Global Peace Index (GPI) been few truly global cross-country statistical analyses has been steadily deteriorating over the last seven years; conducted to empirically examine the link between religion, with 111 countries deteriorating and 51 improving. One of the conflict and peace. Hence, the role of religion in creating or main reasons for the global decline in peace has been undermining peace is more often than not presumed rather increased terrorist activity, which has been driven by high than systematically studied. profile Islamic terrorist organisations such as the Islamic State (IS), Boko Haram and Al-Qaida. Both the scale and the intensity of terrorism has substantially increased. In 2011, 13 countries recorded more than 50 deaths from terrorist activity; by 2013 the number had jumped to 24 countries. 1 PEACE & RELIGION / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FIVE KEY QUESTIONS QUESTION 1 conflicts are not inevitable. Although there are numerous IS RELIGION THE MAIN CAUSE OF CONFLICT TODAY? religious divides, the paper focuses on the Sunni and Shia divide due to the high profile it is currently receiving in Religion is not the main cause of conflicts today. Whilst the media. religion has evidently been a cause of many conflicts throughout history it is by no means the only reason for conflict. Surveying the state of 35 armed conflicts from 2013, QUESTION 4 religious elements did not play a role in 14, or 40 per cent. IS RELIGION KEY TO UNDERSTANDING WHAT DRIVES PEACE? It is notable that religion did not stand as a single cause in There are many other socio-economic characteristics that any conflict; however 14 per cent did have religion and the have more significant explanatory power in understanding establishment of an Islamic state as driving causes. Religion why conflict and peace occurs than religion does. There was only one of three or more reasons for 67 per cent of the are however some religious factors that are significantly conflicts where religion featured as a factor to the conflict. related to peace. QUESTION 2 Multivariate regression analysis reveals that there is a DOES THE PROPORTION OF RELIGIOUS BELIEF consistent relationship between factors such as corruption, OR ATHEISM IN A COUNTRY DETERMINE THE PEACE political terror, gender and economic inequality and OF THE COUNTRY? political instability which determine poor peace scores as measured by the Global Peace Index (GPI). The research There is no clear statistical relationship between either clearly indicates that these factors are globally more the presence or the absence of religious belief and significant determinants in driving violence and conflict in conflict. Even at the extremes, the least peaceful society than the presence of religious belief. countries are not necessarily the most religious and vice versa. For example, when looking at the ten most Nevertheless, there are two religious characteristics which are peaceful countries three would be described as highly associated with peace; restrictions on religious behaviour as religious, and when looking at the ten least peaceful well as hostilities towards religion. Countries without a nations two would be described as the least religious. dominant religious group are, on average, more peaceful and Conversely, the absence of religious belief, as manifested have less restrictions or social hostilities around religion than by atheism, also sees no significant link to broader countries with a dominant religious group. However, societal peacefulness. government type has much greater explanatory power than religion in understanding differing levels of peace. QUESTION 3 IN MUSLIM COUNTRIES, DOES THE DEMOGRAPHIC QUESTION 5 SPREAD OF SUNNI AND SHIA DETERMINE PEACE? CAN RELIGION PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE IN PEACEBUILDING? Despite the apparent role of Sunni and Shia sectarian While a lot of analysis may focus on the negative role of violence in parts of the Middle East today, when reviewed religion it is important to acknowledge the potential positive globally, countries with high proportions of Sunni and role of religion in peacebuilding through inter-faith dialogue Shia are not necessarily violent or plagued with conflict. and other religiously-motivated movements. It was found What distinguishes Muslim-majority countries is differing that countries that had higher membership of religious performance in the Pillars of Peace, a framework groups tended to be slightly more peaceful. developed by IEP to assess the positive peace factors that Religion can be the motivator or catalyst for bringing create peaceful societies. Specifically, countries that have about peace through ending conflict as well as helping to lower corruption, well-functioning
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